While much of the market’s attention remains fixed on the Bitcoin (BTC) short-term price outlook for the remainder of the year, some early industry voices are raising a far longer-term concern — one that could introduce as much as $274 billion in potential selling pressure over the next decade. Quantum Risk Debate Grows In a recent post on social media, market expert Crypto Rover pointed to what he described as a growing conversation among early Bitcoin analysts and long-time participants in the space. According to the analysis, the warning is not coming from retail traders reacting to daily price swings. Instead, it is being discussed by so-called “OG” holders — investors who have been involved with Bitcoin since its earliest years. Related Reading: Top Expert Projects Bitcoin Bear Market To End In Less Than 365 Days The issue at the center of the debate is not macroeconomics or regulatory shifts, but quantum computing. A segment of early adopters believes that advances in quantum technology may no longer be a distant or purely theoretical risk. Within the next five to ten years, they argue, quantum systems could become powerful enough to challenge the cryptographic foundations that secure the Bitcoin network. If quantum machines were able to break or significantly weaken that encryption, older wallets — particularly those using early-generation security standards — could become vulnerable. The concern is not that Bitcoin’s network is currently weak, but that a sufficiently advanced quantum breakthrough could expose dormant coins whose private keys were once thought secure. This is where the potential supply shock comes into focus. Potential Return Of Early-Era Bitcoin An estimated 4 million BTC from Bitcoin’s early years, particularly before 2011, are considered inactive or lost. Markets generally treat those coins as permanently out of circulation, effectively reducing Bitcoin’s usable supply. However, Rover asserts that if quantum computing were ever able to unlock even a portion of those wallets, that supply could theoretically return to the market. To understand the magnitude of such a shift, Rover points to recent history. Since 2020, institutions and corporations have collectively accumulated roughly 3 million BTC, which played a key role in driving BTC from $10,000 to peak levels above $120,000. Related Reading: XRP Outlook Slashed: Standard Chartered Lowers Forecast From $8 To $2 The expert warns that if 4 million Bitcoin were suddenly viewed as potentially liquid supply, it would represent a long-term overhang far exceeding the scale of recent institutional accumulation. However, Rover highlighted that quantum computing does not represent an imminent danger to Bitcoin’s security. The technology is continuously evolving, and there is no confirmed ability to break modern cryptographic standards at scale. BTC was trading at roughly $67,800 at the time of writing, representing a 2.6% decrease over the previous seven days, according to CoinGecko data. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin continues to struggle to reclaim the $70,000 level, with price action increasingly confined to a broad range above $60,000. This consolidation reflects persistent selling pressure near resistance while buyers appear willing to defend lower levels, creating a temporary equilibrium rather than a clear directional trend. Market sentiment remains cautious, with traders closely watching liquidity conditions, macro signals, and on-chain flows for clues about the next decisive move. Related Reading: Ethereum Whale Losses Mirror Past Bottoms: Accumulation Continues Despite Pressure A recent CryptoQuant analysis provides additional context by highlighting a noticeable shift in miner behavior. According to the data, the pace of Bitcoin withdrawals from trading platforms has accelerated significantly in recent weeks. Since the beginning of February, roughly 36,000 BTC have been withdrawn from exchanges — a substantial figure compared to previous months. Such withdrawals are often interpreted as a reduction in immediate selling intent, as miners typically move coins off exchanges when prioritizing long-term holding or alternative liquidity strategies. While this does not guarantee bullish price action, it can reduce short-term supply pressure in spot markets. Miner Withdrawals Signal Potential Shift In Bitcoin Supply Dynamics The analysis further highlights the scale and distribution of recent miner withdrawals from exchanges. More than 12,000 Bitcoin were reportedly withdrawn from Binance alone, while the remaining volume — exceeding 24,000 BTC — was spread across multiple other trading platforms. This broad-based movement suggests coordinated repositioning rather than isolated activity by a single entity, pointing to a wider shift in miner liquidity management strategies. Such behavior is often interpreted as a move toward longer-term storage. Miners typically transfer holdings to cold wallets when they are less inclined to sell immediately, reducing the amount of Bitcoin readily available on exchanges. This can signal increased confidence in future price appreciation or a strategic decision to manage liquidity outside active trading venues. Daily withdrawal intensity has also accelerated notably. At one point, more than 6,000 BTC were withdrawn in a single day, marking the highest daily level since last November. This pace clearly exceeds the activity observed in January, reinforcing the view that miners may be entering a repositioning phase. While not inherently bullish, sustained exchange outflows from miners can contribute to tighter spot supply conditions, potentially influencing price stability and market sentiment over time. Related Reading: Hyperunit Whale Dumps $500M In Ethereum As Massive Crypto Bet Turns Sour Price Consolidates Below Resistance Bitcoin price action continues to reflect structural weakness, with the chart showing a clear downtrend following the rejection from the late-2025 highs. Successive lower highs and lower lows remain intact, confirming that bearish momentum has not yet been invalidated. The recent decline toward the mid-$60K range appears to be stabilizing temporarily, but price has not reclaimed any major technical resistance levels. The moving average structure reinforces this view. Price remains below key trend indicators, which are sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance. This alignment typically reflects sustained selling pressure rather than a completed correction. Until Bitcoin reclaims these averages convincingly, upside recoveries are likely to face repeated selling interest. Related Reading: Liquidity Or Liability? History’s Hard Lessons For The XRP Momentum Play Volume behavior also deserves attention. The sharp spike accompanying the recent drop suggests forced selling or panic-driven liquidation rather than orderly distribution. However, the subsequent reduction in volume during consolidation indicates that aggressive sellers may be temporarily exhausted, though not necessarily absent. From a technical standpoint, the $60K–$65K zone is emerging as an important short-term support area. A sustained breakdown below it could open the door to deeper downside. Conversely, recovery above the $70K region would be required to weaken the current bearish structure and signal potential stabilization. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price corrected gains and tested the $66,500 support. BTC is now struggling and might decline further below the $65,000 zone. Bitcoin is struggling to recover losses and moving lower below $67,500. The price is trading below $67,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a declining channel forming with resistance at $68,850 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $66,500 and $66,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $68,500 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $67,800 support zone. There was a push below $67,200. The price dipped below the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $65,072 swing low to the $70,935 high. However, the bulls remained active near the $66,500 zone. Besides, there is a declining channel forming with resistance at $68,850 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $67,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $66,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $68,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $68,850 level. A close above the $68,850 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $69,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $70,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $7`,200 and $72,000. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $68,850 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $66,500 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $65,072 swing low to the $70,935 high. The first major support is near the $66,000 level. The next support is now near the $65,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $64,200 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $63,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $66,500, followed by $66,000. Major Resistance Levels – $68,000 and $68,850.
After an extended period of relative stability, Bitcoin has entered a renewed phase of volatility, with price swings accelerating to levels not seen in nearly a year. The sudden shift signals a potential turning point in market dynamics, as tightening liquidity conditions, changing investor sentiment, and increased trading activity drive sharper movements across the crypto market. How Rising Volatility Signals A Change In Market Regime Bitcoin volatility has returned to levels not seen in almost a year. A full-time crypto trader and investor, Daan Crypto Trades, has highlighted on X that ever since the tariff-related market dump, BTC price action has remained unusually slow, and it is rare to see a daily candle move of 5% or more. Over the past few weeks, the broader market breakdown has seen a notable change. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Holds The Line, But Can Bulls Force A Break Higher? The rise in volatility mirrors broader instability across all other markets, which is definitely not a calm period for markets around the world. Meanwhile, elevated volatility often creates attractive opportunities for short-term traders. Daan emphasized that his primary focus remains on the next larger market swing and accumulating BTC at the lowest possible levels, with a long-term horizon in mind. According to investor Jelle, buying Bitcoin at the bottom of the last cycle is not because he anticipated the exact price, but because the market showed remarkable resilience following the collapse of FTX. When FTX collapsed, BTC sold off roughly 20%, but in a market deep into a bear phase, the price action began moving sideways, sweeping previous lows and eventually forming higher lows. After months of downside, the market had already absorbed so much negative information that even a major systemic shock failed to drive prices significantly lower. Jelle noted that these structural shifts bear losing strength and bulls gradually regaining control are the key signals he is watching for again. While there are price levels where he’s willing to take action, the decision ultimately depends on the broader market context. The focus is on bears losing momentum and bulls starting to show early signs of strength, because the market will eventually show its resilience. From Accumulation To Price Discovery Bitcoin has entered a critical accumulation phase that could define the next nine months of the cycle. Analyst Aralez stated that the price has entered a zone where the market will form a bottom, but growth should not be expected within 3 to 5 months of accumulation before the breakout. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio Sinks To Historical Lows — Accumulation Next? However, the outlook suggests that this accumulation phase will eventually resolve to a decisive move higher, leading to a new all-time high near $130,000. After a confirmed break above $126,000, it could open the door to $250,000. Under this scenario, Ethereum and other high-cap altcoins are expected to follow BTC’s momentum. Also, altseason and Memecoin season will revive, showing 100 times growth in days. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin (BTC) may be positioning for another significant upward move as on-chain data suggests strong accumulation activity among long-term holders. A CryptoQuant author, Darkfost on X, highlighted a significant rise in demand from accumulator addresses that consistently acquire and retain Bitcoin. According to him, the current behavior of these investors could influence market sentiment and trigger a price bounce in Bitcoin. Bitcoin Accumulation Activity Suggests Future Upside Darkfost’s CryptoQuant chart analysis shows that monthly accumulation from “accumulator addresses” now averages around 372,000 BTC, up sharply from 10,000 BTC per month in September 2024. This substantial increase in long-term buying indicates a strategic positioning that contrasts with the recent short-term trading behavior in the market. Related Reading: Extreme Bitcoin Shorts Could Predict A Bottom, Here’s The Significance His chart also shows that demand from accumulator addresses was steadily increasing each year. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s latest price decline appears to have created opportunities for these long-term investors to continue buying aggressively. Rather than reacting to ongoing price volatility, they appear to be focused on Bitcoin’s future growth and are positioning ahead of any potential bounce. Notably, Darkfrost has indicated that the scale of the recent accumulation is unprecedented, suggesting a large portion of Bitcoin has consistently been removed from circulation. As demand continues to increase and supply declines, this could create ideal conditions for an upward price movement. The recent accumulation trend also highlights a major contrast between short-term trading and deliberate positioning. Accumulator addresses tend to show a disciplined, patient approach to investing, which has historically aligned with periods of stronger market performance. Their aggressive buying may act as a stabilizing factor in the market and provide early indicators for a possible price rebound. The same principle applies to periods with notable sell-offs and weak demand. When investor sentiment is low, particularly in highly volatile conditions, it can contribute to more pronounced downtrends. How Accumulator Addresses Are Identified Darkfost notes that CryptoQuant identifies accumulator addresses using a detailed set of criteria. According to him, these addresses show no outflows and must have purchased a minimum amount of BTC in their latest transaction. Each address must also have at least two separate purchasing events or inflows, hold a minimum total Bitcoin balance, and have been active at least once over the past seven years. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,000 Was “Necessary” To ensure accuracy, CryptoQuant also excludes known exchanges and miner addresses, as well as any addresses that interact with smart contracts. This framework helps reduce distortions and provides a clearer picture of long-term holders actively accumulating Bitcoin. Darkfost emphasized that the identification and selection process is precise and thorough, allowing confidence in the validity of the observed accumulation. While CryptoQuant takes extensive measures to be accurate, the report acknowledges that selection is not perfect and cannot capture every entity, such as centralized exchanges or miners. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Ethereum is attempting to rebound after recent selling pressure, but the recovery so far lacks the strength needed to confirm a lasting bottom. With momentum appearing corrective rather than impulsive and key resistance levels still intact, downside risk remains on the table unless buyers can deliver a decisive structural shift. No Impulsive Break, No Bullish Confirmation According to a recent Ethereum update by More Crypto Online, the downside scenario remains valid unless price delivers a clear impulsive five-wave advance or decisively breaks above the weekend high. The bounce from last week’s low currently appears corrective rather than impulsive. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Recovery Runs Into A Wall, Decline Risk Returns Momentum has been limited, and the structure does not yet suggest that a sustainable bottom has formed. So far, there is no clear technical evidence that a durable reversal is underway. However, Ethereum is trading within a technically significant zone. Following the recent liquidation flush, markets have become more reactive, making it important to stay alert for potential reversal signals that could shift the short-term outlook. For now, confirmation is still lacking. Until a stronger structural shift appears, close monitoring of the lower-timeframe micro structure remains essential to determine whether Ethereum builds strength or resumes its downward trajectory. Ethereum Attempts Recovery After Sunday Selloff Ethereum is attempting to stabilize after the sharp Sunday selloff, showing early signs of recovery. In his latest analysis, Lennaert Snyder noted that, similar to Bitcoin, ETH printed relatively weak weekend extremes around $1,929 on the low and $2,107 on the high. These levels now serve as key liquidity reference points for the week ahead. Related Reading: Ethereum Whale Selloff Continues As Supply Share Drops Under 75% Snyder’s broader plan anticipates a push toward higher prices, but he prefers to see nearby liquidity pools mitigated before considering quality long positions. With the higher-timeframe trend still pointing downward, short setups remain valid if the right structure presents itself. For long entries, he wants to see a sweep of the $1,946 and/or $1,929 lows, as both represent weak pivots, ideally including a full sweep of the weekend low. Such a move could provide the liquidity grab needed for a high-probability reversal back toward the weekend high. However, if price rallies directly from current levels and leaves those lows untouched, he would instead look for short opportunities following a market structure break (MSB) near the $2,107 high. Additionally, H1 liquidity sits around $2,015, offering potential scalp setups depending on whether the price gains acceptance above it or rejects it sharply. Longs would be considered on a clean reclaim, while failure after a sweep could favor shorts. With it being a bank holiday, no trades are being placed today, and the outlined plan remains intact unless price action invalidates it. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has become the public market’s most widely traded Bitcoin proxy, using equity, convertible notes, and preferred stock to build a balance sheet dominated by the top crypto. However, as Bitcoin trades near $68,000 and Strategy shares hover below $130, investors are paying closer attention to the mechanisms that allow the company to […]
The post Saylor confirms Strategy will survive Bitcoin crashing to $8,000 – but can it escape the slow bleed of dilution? appeared first on CryptoSlate.
A leading market analyst says the crypto market may be heading into a short-term rebound, but investors should still prepare for a potentially volatile period ahead. According to the latest technical outlook by Gareth Soloway, cryptocurrencies including Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP could see a temporary recovery rally before the market decides its longer-term direction. Bitcoin …
Bitcoin price is once again stuck below the psychological $70,000 level, and the price action is starting to feel compressed. After multiple attempts to reclaim the $69,500–$70,000 zone, BTC continues to face rejection. The repeated failures have increased short-term selling pressure, while leverage builds on both sides of the market. Open interest remains elevated, and …
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
American Bitcoin exceeds 6,000 BTC worth $405M as mining output rises on lower difficulty while shares fall 37% year to date.
The post American Bitcoin surpasses 6,000 BTC milestone worth $411M appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
David Bailey's bitcoin treasury company Nakamoto has agreed to acquire two other David Bailey-related companies, including BTC Inc.
Bitcoin’s ongoing correction is pulling large holders back onto centralized venues, with CryptoQuant data showing a sharp jump in whale-dominated inflows to Binance. At the same time, derivatives positioning continues to unwind, reinforcing the picture of a market de-risking across both spot and futures. Bitcoin Whale Share Of Inflows Spikes On Binance CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) said Binance is seeing a notable rise in whale activity as the drawdown pressures participants “from retail participants to whales and even institutions.” His focus was the “whale inflow ratio,” a metric that compares BTC inflows from the 10 largest transactions against total exchange inflows, smoothed using a weekly average to reduce the impact of one-off transfers. “According to the whale inflow ratio, we are seeing a clear surge in whale activity on Binance, reflecting a specific dynamic in the market,” Darkfost wrote. “This ratio is calculated by comparing BTC inflows from the 10 largest transactions to total inflows. Using a weekly average helps reveal a clearer trend, filtering out noise from isolated, exceptional transactions.” Related Reading: 46% Of Bitcoin Supply Now In Loss—What It Could Take For A Bottom Between Feb. 2 and Feb. 15, Darkfost said the ratio rose from 0.4 to 0.62, implying that a larger share of inbound BTC to Binance is now coming from a small set of large transfers. While the metric doesn’t prove intent, a higher concentration of whale inflows is often read as an increase in potential sell-side supply sitting on exchange order books, particularly during risk-off stretches. “It is important to note, however, that this reflects an increase in their share of inflows, which can be interpreted as rising sell-side pressure in the market,” he added. Darkfost also flagged that some of the activity may be linked to a specific entity. “Part of these inflows can be attributed to a well-known whale, believed to be Garrett Jin. Nicknamed 19D5 or ‘the Hyperunit whale,’ this whale has been particularly active on Binance recently, moving close to 10,000 BTC onto the platform.” He framed the broader context as a liquidity and venue-choice story rather than a single wallet-driven anomaly, arguing that multiple whales have been sending “significant amounts of BTC” to Binance, aided by its depth while uncertainty pushes investors to reassess exposure. Derivatives Unwind Adds To Pressure In a separate post, Darkfost argued the derivatives market contraction that followed the cycle’s top remains a central feature of the current tape. “Analyzing Bitcoin open interest across exchanges highlights how severely the derivatives market has contracted since the last all time high and the October 10 sell off,” he wrote, adding that speculation “reached unprecedented levels.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Capitulation Or Buy Zone? What On-Chain Data Shows Right Now He pointed to prior peaks in BTC-denominated open interest on Binance: 94,300 BTC after the November 2021 peak versus 120,000 BTC at the October 2025 market top and said aggregate open interest across all exchanges rose from 221,000 BTC in April 2024 to 381,000 BTC at the cycle peak. Since that top, he said open interest has fallen in almost every month, including a sharp Oct. 6–Oct. 11 drawdown when Binance open interest dropped 20.8%, while Bybit and Gate.io each posted 37% declines. The contraction has continued, with Binance down another 39.3%, Bybit down 33%, and BitMEX down 24%, according to Darkfost. His takeaway is that the market is still in a risk-reduction phase, whether voluntary or forced by liquidations amid volatility. “Overall, this environment indicates that investors are actively reducing exposure, cutting risk, or being forced out through liquidations driven by ongoing volatility,” he wrote. “Under these conditions, it is difficult to envision Bitcoin stabilizing sustainably and reigniting a bullish trend in the short term.” At press time, BTC traded at $67,823. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The fiscal mathematics of the United States are drifting toward a threshold that markets can no longer afford to ignore, and a level that, relative to GDP, hasn't transpired since the last world war. Washington’s latest budgetary outlook suggests the nation is on a trajectory to accumulate nearly $64 trillion in federal debt over the […]
The post US debt to hit WWII-era extremes with $64 trillion owed, but one market price decides whether Bitcoin benefits appeared first on CryptoSlate.
The Bitcoin price is once again caught in a tug-of-war between on-chain caution and aggressive corporate accumulation. NUPL data suggests most participants are not yet underwater, where its underwater conditions are evident in past true cycle bottoms. Yet fresh purchases from MSTR hit the tape loud today. NUPL Says Capitulation Incomplete Historically, its evident that …
Strategy has been quietly adding to its Bitcoin pile for the 12th straight week, refusing to slow down even as prices wobble. Michael Saylor’s chart on social feed grabbed attention again, marking what the firm calls its upcoming 99th BTC trade. Related Reading: Bitcoin Should Be Flying—Instead, Quantum Risk Keeps It Grounded: Analyst The latest buy was 1,142 BTC for just over $90 million, bringing the total on the books to 714,644 BTC — a holding that’s valued at a little over $49 billion at current market rates. Strategy Keeps Buying Reports note that the company’s pattern is simple: buy through weakness. The firm’s purchases have become a steady drumbeat in the market. While others paused or raised cash, the firm added coins below its $76,000 average cost. Critics point to the risk of doubling down when markets slip. Supporters argue accumulation at lower prices widens the margin for long-term gains. 99>98 pic.twitter.com/BsTEvhbc9v — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 15, 2026 Market Signals Signals from the wider crypto treasury sector paint a rough picture. Standard Chartered Bank warned that by September 2025 several big treasury firms were trading with an mNAV below 1 — a sign their shares were priced under the value of the assets they hold. That metric matters because companies with an mNAV above 1 tend to find it easier to raise capital and issue shares to buy more crypto. The sector was already under strain before the October flash crash. The crash then carved deeper losses; Strategy reported a Q4 hit of $12.4 billion, which sent its share price down about 15% at the time, though the stock has recovered some ground and closed recently at $133.80. Bitcoin Price Action Midway through the week, Bitcoin traded near $68,000 after earlier slides, giving a sense of short-term calm. The market’s mood has been pushed and pulled by headlines — geopolitical worries in the Middle East nudged BTC under $78,000 briefly — and that pulled many investors back from risky bets. Altcoins were hit harder, while the largest coin showed relative strength. Traders said the move was a mix of headline risk and a pause in fresh buyers. Related Reading: Bitcoin At $8,000? Michael Saylor Says Strategy Still Won’t Break What The Buying Means The buying streak sends a clear message: Strategy believes in holding through volatility. That stance has been rewarded in past cycles but it’s not without cost. The Q4 loss and the hit to the company’s stock show how concentrated exposure can amplify pain. Balance sheets were tested across the sector. For some firms, the market’s price judgment has been unforgiving. Featured image from Bitbo, chart from TradingView
This acquisition solidifies Strategy's influence in the crypto market, potentially impacting Bitcoin's price stability and corporate adoption.
The post Strategy acquires 2,486 Bitcoin at $67,700 appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin treasury company, Strategy, continued its aggressive accumulation by buying 2,486 BTC in its latest purchase, adding roughly $168 million to its treasury. This brings the firm’s total Bitcoin holdings to 717,131 BTC acquired for about $54.52 billion at an average price of around $76,027 per coin as of February 16, 2026, making it one of the …
Strategy's holdings account for more than 3.4% of the total 21 million bitcoin supply — worth around $49 billion.
Bitcoin price today has recorded its worst quarter (Q1) performance in 8 years, falling more than 22% from its 2026 high of $97,689 to around $68,000. However, the sharp decline mirrors the historical data, which suggests the current Bitcoin price correction may be part of a market reset rather than the start of a new …
Bitcoin price has entered a make-or-break phase. After months of sustained strength and a rally to fresh highs above $126K, BTC is now retracing toward a major long-term support zone—one that previously defined cycle bottoms in 2018, 2020, and 2022. As price cools, signs of distribution are emerging: profit-taking has increased, whale wallets are moving …
Crypto markets are leaning toward their quietest mood in years, and some analysts say that could be the signal sellers have run out of steam. According to Matrixport, a slump in investor mood has pushed its measures to levels that have in the past lined up with market turning points. Related Reading: XRP Spotlighted In German Media With Bold $9 Projection Crypto Sentiment At Multi-Year Lows According to Matrixport, its Bitcoin fear-and-greed gauge has the 21-day moving average below zero and starting to turn up, which is the kind of shift that in prior episodes marked the end of broad selling. Reports note Alternative.me’s Fear and Greed Index sits near 10 out of 100, a reading that lines up with what traders call “extreme fear.” Those are blunt, unsightly numbers. They also tend to make a few investors start looking for bargains. Similar Readings From The Past Past moments with similar readings came after steep drops. June 2024 and November 2025 were named by Matrixport as earlier times when market mood hit comparable depths, and each was followed by at least a temporary change in price action. That pattern doesn’t promise a rebound every time, but it does show how deeply negative views can eventually be absorbed by buyers who step back in at lower prices. ????Today’s #Matrixport Daily Chart – February 17, 2026 ⬇️ Bitcoin Sentiment Hits Extreme Lows ⁰— Durable Bottom Are Emerging? #Matrixport #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarkets #MarketSentiment #FearAndGreed #RiskManagement #Volatility #CryptoResearch pic.twitter.com/WxJg3xrHSf — Matrixport Official (@Matrixport_EN) February 17, 2026 Technical Indicators Flash Oversold Signals Frank Holmes of Hive says Bitcoin is about two standard deviations below its 20-day trading norm — a rare reading seen only a few times in five years. Reports note that these extremes have historically produced short-term bounces over the following 20 trading days. Bitcoin itself has been moving sharply: it briefly climbed above $70,000 over the weekend, only to fall back about 2.5%, trading near $68,750 at the time of writing. Other trackers report it dipped close to $60,000, marking one of the deepest drops in several years. Traders are keeping a close eye on US GDP and income data, which could influence risk appetite and the next moves for crypto markets. Selling Pressure May Be Near Exhaustion Reports say Matrixport still warns that prices could move lower before any meaningful bottom is cemented. The firm points to a cyclical link between mood and price — deep pessimism often precedes an inflection, but cycles can be messy and extend. Selling pressure can be exhausted and yet new headlines or data can push prices down further before buyers feel confident enough to stay. Related Reading: Bitcoin At $8,000? Michael Saylor Says Strategy Still Won’t Break What Traders Might Do Next Some investors see present readings as an attractive entry point, while others prefer to wait for clearer confirmation from price and volume. Long-term holders often point to the underlying network metrics and institutional interest as reasons to remain optimistic, and their positions are being watched closely. Short-term players, by contrast, are taking a cautious stance, using stops, scaling entries, or sitting out until signals firm up. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
With Bitcoin (BTC) hovering around 50% below its all-time high of $126,000 reached last October, investors are increasingly questioning when the cryptocurrency might finally establish its next bottom. According to market expert and technical analyst Altcoin Sherpa, the current bear phase is unlikely to drag on for another full year. In his view, Bitcoin could complete its downturn in less than 365 days and potentially resume its broader uptrend before year-end. Has Bitcoin Bottomed? In a recent analysis published on X, Sherpa clarified that his timeline refers specifically to the move from peak to bottom and does not include the accumulation period that typically follows. Accumulation, he explained, is characterized by choppy, sideways price action with relatively low volatility and subdued trading volume. Historically, this phase has lasted anywhere from two to four months. Related Reading: Can XRP Hold Above $1? Token Tumbles 11% as Breakdown Fuels Crash Concerns Looking back at previous cycles, Sherpa notes a fairly consistent rhythm. Bitcoin experienced a powerful rally in 2017 and again in 2021, each followed by a steep year-long decline in 2018 and 2022. After those major drawdowns came an extended stretch of accumulation, as seen in 2019 and 2020. From the top in 2017 to the bottom in 2018, and similarly from 2021 to 2022, it took about one year for Bitcoin to complete its downward move. Another common feature of past bear markets, he argues, has been a final capitulation event — a sharp, dramatic sell-off that effectively marks the end of the downtrend. Sherpa believes a capitulation may have already occurred in 2026, pointing to Bitcoin’s drop from $100,000 to $60,000 as a potential final flush. If that interpretation is correct, the market could already be in the early stages of accumulation. Accumulation Could Already Be Underway Because the 2024 and 2025 rallies were structurally different, Sherpa believes the decline will also differ. While the last two bear markets each lasted about a year from peak to bottom and saw drawdowns of approximately 85% and 75%, respectively, he does not expect the current downturn to mirror that pattern exactly. One reason, he says, is the growing role of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Although ETF products can and do decline along with the broader market, they have changed the structure of capital flows. He also points to the lengthy consolidation between $50,000 and $70,000, where Bitcoin traded for roughly eight months. From a technical analysis perspective, such extended trading ranges often act as strong support zones during pullbacks. Related Reading: Dogecoin (DOGE) Gives Back Gains, Support Level Under Spotlight As for timing, broader macroeconomic forces — including equities, metals, overall risk appetite and even developments in artificial intelligence — remain critical variables. Still, Sherpa does not think BTC needs another seven months of steady decline to form a bottom. If the recent $100,000 to $60,000 slide was indeed the final Bitcoin price capitulation, then accumulation may already be underway. Historically, that phase has lasted between two and four months, or roughly 60 to 120 days. However, he acknowledges one key risk to his outlook: the possibility that a final capitulation has not yet occurred. If another sell-off emerges — for example, a drop from $75,000 toward $50,000— he would interpret that as the definitive bottoming event. In that scenario, accumulation would likely follow for several months. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has witnessed a deep plunge into the bearish territory recently. Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Now Most Bearish Since 2022 Bottom In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. This metric tells us, as its name suggests, about the market phase that the cryptocurrency is currently inside. The indicator is based on another CryptoQuant metric called the P&L Index, which combines the data of key on-chain indicators to build a single valuation index for Bitcoin. More specifically, the metrics that the P&L Index uses are the MVRV Ratio, NUPL, and LTH/STH SOPR. Related Reading: 46% Of Bitcoin Supply Now In Loss—What It Could Take For A Bottom The MVRV Ratio and NUPL both deal with unrealized network profits/losses, while the LTH/STH SOPR with profits/losses being realized by the investors through their transactions. According to CryptoQuant, the P&L Index’s interactions with its 365-day MA signal whether the asset is switching to a bull or bear market. Breaks above the MA indicate that the cryptocurrency is moving into a bullish regime, while falls below it can signal a bearish transition. The CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator tracks the distance between the P&L Index and its 365-day MA to showcase whether the market is transitioning or if the metric is valued at an extreme. Now, here is the chart for the indicator shared by Maartunn that shows how its value has changed over the past decade: As displayed in the above graph, the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator plunged into the region below zero during the last few months of 2025, suggesting that the P&L Index crossed below its 365-day MA. As mentioned earlier, such a crossover is a sign of a bearish shift. Since the indicator has gone into this zone, its value has only fallen deeper as the cryptocurrency has seen its negative price action. Following the most recent drop, the metric has hit low levels not seen since the 2022 bear market bottom that followed the FTX crash. The trend is an indication that the P&L Index is approaching an extreme point below the 365-day MA. In the past, market lows have generally been reached alongside such values on the index. Related Reading: Bitcoin NUPL Back In Hope/Fear Region: What Happens Next? That said, the CryptoQuant Bitcoin Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has usually spent a bit of time in the “extreme bear” zone before the cryptocurrency has found a reversal. It now remains to be seen how long the metric will take this time around. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $68,000, down 4% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto exchange-traded products (ETPs) have extended their negative streak to a fourth consecutive week after US market weakness pushed global funds to over $170 million in weekly outflows. Related Reading: Bitcoin Should Be Flying—Instead, Quantum Risk Keeps It Grounded: Analyst Crypto Funds Outflows Extend Amid US Weakness According to the latest CoinShares data, crypto-based investment products recorded their fourth week of outflows amid the negative market sentiment of the past month. In a Monday report, James Butterfill, head of research at CoinShares, shared that global crypto funds closed the week with negative net flows totaling $173 million, bringing cumulative four-week outflows to $3.47 billion. Notably, crypto ETPs recorded over $1.7 billion in outflows each of the last two weeks of January as the market sentiment shifted, marking the largest negative net flows since November 2025. Over the past two weeks, investment products have seen outflows of $187m and $173m, respectively. The latest figures suggest that the strong selling pressure has slowed, although it has not yet reversed despite improved market sentiment. “The week began on a more positive note, with inflows of US$575m, followed by outflows of US$853m, likely driven by further price weakness. Sentiment improved slightly on Friday following weaker-than-expected CPI data, with inflows of US$105m,” he detailed. Meanwhile, ETPs’ trading activity also dropped notably, with volumes falling to $27 billion from a record $63 billion recorded the previous week. Butterfill noted that the funds also saw a sharp regional divergence in sentiment between the US and the rest of the world. Per the report, the US saw $403 million in outflows last week, while all other regions recorded $230 million in inflows. Germany, Canada, and Switzerland registered the strongest performance, with inflows worth $114.8 million, $46.3 million, and $36.8 million, respectively. Altcoins See Selective Resilience As the report noted, the two leading cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), saw the worst performance among major assets. The flagship crypto had the weakest sentiment, recording $133 million in negative net flows, fueled by BlackRock IBIT’s $235 million in outflows. However, short Bitcoin investment products also recorded outflows, totaling $15.4 million over the past two weeks, “a pattern often seen near market lows,” Butterfill added. Related Reading: Bitcoin At $8,000? Michael Saylor Says Strategy Still Won’t Break Ethereum suffered $85.1 million in outflows, led by BlackRock ETHA’s $112.7 million, while Hyperliquid saw $1 million in outflows. On the flip side, some altcoin-based investment products saw positive sentiment, continuing to attract fresh inflows last week. Crypto funds based on XRP led the charge with $33.4 million in inflows, adding to the previous week’s $63.1 million positive flows. Solana ETPs followed second with $31 million inflows, a notable increase from the $8.2 million recorded the week prior, signaling confidence in these assets despite the broader trend. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows almost half of all Bitcoin is currently underwater, representing overhead supply that might need to be absorbed before a price bottom. Around 9.31 Million Bitcoin Is Now Being Held At A Loss In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about why a true Bitcoin bottom takes time to form. To illustrate his point, Maartunn has shared a chart for the Bitcoin Supply In Loss, an indicator that measures, as its name suggest, the total amount of the cryptocurrency that’s being held at a net unrealized loss. As is visible in the above graph, the Bticoin Supply In Loss shrunk down to zero as the asset set its new all-time high (ATH) back in October. Since then, however, the metric’s value has sharply expanded as the cryptocurrency has gone through its bearish reversal. Related Reading: Bitcoin NUPL Back In Hope/Fear Region: What Happens Next? Today, the indicator is sitting at 9.31 million BTC, which is the highest that it has been since the 2022 bear market. In terms of supply percentage, this amount is equivalent to 46% of all tokens in circulation. Generally, holders in loss look forward to retests of their cost basis level so that they can exit with their capital back. Currently, there would be a significant amount of such investors. “A large share of holders are waiting to sell at breakeven or a small profit,” noted the analyst. Another on-chain indicator called the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) showcases which levels exactly the underwater hands bought their Bitcoin at. As displayed in the indicator’s chart, the Bitcoin loss supply is particularly clustered between the $80,000 to $95,000 and $105,000 to $120,000 ranges. Given the distance that the current BTC price has to these levels, it’s possible that traders who bought inside the ranges will stay underwater in the near future. Upward moves for the asset would naturally be met with selling pressure from these investors looking to cut their losses. “That overhead supply must be absorbed and redistributed to stronger hands before a durable bottom can emerge,” explained Maartunn. Related Reading: Bitcoin On-Chain Heatmap Shows All Major Metrics In The Red During the previous bear market, the Bitcoin Supply In Loss dropped to even lower levels than now and the market observed a long phase of consolidation before this transfer of loss supply to more resolute hands could occur. It now remains to be seen how long the cryptocurrency will take to reach a floor this time around. BTC Price Bitcoin has taken to sideways movement since its recovery from the $60,000 low as its price is still trading around $68,600. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price corrected gains and tested the $67,500 support. BTC is now recovering and might aim for an upside break above $69,500. Bitcoin is recovering losses and moving higher above $68,500. The price is trading above $68,800 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a declining channel forming with resistance at $69,550 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $68,000 and $67,400 levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $70,000 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $69,000 support zone. There was a push below $68,000. The price dipped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $65,072 swing low to the $70,935 high. However, the bulls remained active near the $67,400 zone. The price is again moving higher and gaining pace above $68,500. Bitcoin is now trading above $68,800 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $68,200, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $69,500 level. There is also a declining channel forming with resistance at $69,550 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $70,500 level. A close above the $70,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $71,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $72,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $72,200 and $72,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $69,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $68,000 level. The first major support is near the $67,400 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $65,072 swing low to the $70,935 high. The next support is now near the $67,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $66,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $65,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $68,000, followed by $67,400. Major Resistance Levels – $69,500 and $70,000.
Bitcoin's recent price crash towards $60,000 did more than just shave billions off market capitalizations or liquidate leveraged positions. It served as a massive, chaotic stress test that exposed a widening behavioral fracture between the two most dominant venues in the digital asset economy. On one side stands Coinbase, the largest US exchange, where Chief […]
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Bitcoin’s recent price decline has led to many traders betting on further downside, with on-chain data showing a notable increase in bearish positioning across major crypto exchanges. According to on-chain data from Santiment, aggregated funding rates have fallen into deep negative territory. This level of deep short positioning has not been seen with Bitcoin since August 2024, a period that ultimately established a major bottom before a powerful multi-month recovery. Bitcoin traders are now back to this level, and history shows that such extreme positioning can create the conditions for a rally. Funding Rates Show Bearish Positioning For Bitcoin Santiment’s “Funding Rates Aggregated By Exchange” metric blends funding data from multiple major exchanges to provide a good view of market sentiment and positioning pressure across the crypto industry. Related Reading: Why The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,000 Was “Necessary” Funding rates are a mechanism used in perpetual futures markets where traders pay small fees to one another at regular intervals to keep contract prices aligned with spot prices. When funding rates are negative, short sellers are paying long traders. When they are positive, longs are paying shorts. The latest chart data from Santiment shows funding rates are now in negative territory, with red bars dominating the lower section of the chart. Funding rates are now less than -0.01%, which shows that a significant portion of derivatives traders are positioned for downside. More often than not, funding rates are positive, as shown in the chart below. According to Santiment, the last time derivatives funding reached similarly extreme negative levels was in August 2024. At that time, traders were shorting Bitcoin aggressively after a notable price crash. However, instead of continuing lower, the Bitcoin price action reversed sharply. Short liquidations helped contribute to an approximately 83% rally over the following four months as positions were forced to close. A similar setup occurred after Binance’s major liquidation event on October 10, 2025, when billions of dollars in long positions were wiped out. In the aftermath, traders turned sharply bearish and crowded into short positions. Extreme Shorting Can Lead To A Squeeze Extreme negative funding is a reflection of fear-based positioning. All that needs to happen for a short squeeze is for the Bitcoin price to push just a bit higher. Related Reading: Popular Tesla Investor Shares The Major Problem After Bitcoin Fell Below $70,000 If the price unexpectedly moves higher, leveraged shorts begin accumulating losses at a fast pace. Once those losses cross liquidation thresholds, exchanges automatically close those positions. Traders must buy back Bitcoin to cover their positions, and this, in turn, creates upward pressure on the price. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $68,740, but the short-term cost basis is around $90,900. A strong push and close above $75,000 could lead to bullish momentum and draw in fresh inflows, increasing the chances of a short squeeze. However, heavy shorting alone does not guarantee an immediate rebound, though it does create a fragile environment where positioning pressure can quickly change to sharp upside volatility. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst XForce has assured that the Dogecoin price can still reach the psychological $1 level. However, he suggested it may not happen soon, as he alluded to technicals that indicate a single pathway for the meme coin to reach this level. Dogecoin Price Can Reach $1 In The Coming Years In an X post, XForce stated that the Dogecoin price still has the potential to record a 10x move in the coming years, potentially reaching $1 from its current level. He further noted that the idea is narrowed to a single primary bullish pathway, in which Wave 4 for DOGE is a potential triangle. Related Reading: Can Dogecoin Lead Meme Coins Back To Glory? The Index That Paints A Gloomy Story His accompanying chart showed that the Dogecoin price could rally to as high as $1.3 on Wave 5, a move which could play out by 2028 based on the technical setup. This notably coincides with a period that analysts such as Benjamin Cowen have predicted could be the peak of the next bull run. Meanwhile, the chart also showed that a drop below $0.05 could invalidate this setup for DOGE. For now, XForce noted that the Dogecoin price continues to hold above the major low and could be the latest remaining meme coin to go on a major run. DOGE is notably back above the psychological $0.10 level, following the recent crypto market rally, led by Bitcoin. However, activity in the derivatives market suggests that traders are still bearish on the meme coin. CoinGlass data shows that the long/short ratio is below 1, indicating that most traders are bearish. Derivatives trading volume has dropped by over 13%, and open interest is down by over 12%. However, the options trading volume is up by over 32%, and options open interest is up by 72%. A Rally To $5 Could Be On The Cards Crypto analyst Bitcoinsensus has suggested that a Dogecoin price rally to $5 could be on the cards. In an X post, the analyst stated that DOGE may have room to push to the $5 price level if this cycle plays out like previous ones. Bitcoinsensus noted that in the first cycle, DOGE recorded a 95x surge while it saw a 310x rally in the second cycle. This third cycle is now playing out, which could lead to another parabolic surge. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Momentum Oscillator Drops To Levels That Triggered Previous 21,000% Rally Bitcoinsensus noted that in past cycles, the Dogecoin price has thrived during risk-on environments, typically after long stretches of price consolidation before the breakout. The analyst’s accompanying chart showed that the meme coin could record this parabolic rally between now and 2027. At the time of writing, the Dogecoin price is trading at around $0.10, down over 12% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com