With the rial plunging, middle-class savers are bypassing local banks to move billions into the domestic crypto ecosystem.
Bitcoin remains range-bound as liquidity clears on both sides, keeping price action indecisive. After months of weakness, demand has finally turned positive, hinting that selling is easing and structural accumulation may be returning. BTC Stays Range-Bound Amid Active Liquidity Clearing Bitcoin remains locked in a range-bound state, characterized by a lack of directional commitment. Currently, the price is actively engaged in clearing liquidity on both sides of the spread. This creates a market environment where expansion is met with selling pressure, while price dips are swiftly absorbed by buyers, trapping the asset in a tug-of-war. Related Reading: Thinking Of Buying The Bitcoin Dip? Here’s What This Metric Says According to Columbus, market liquidity remains exceptionally well-defined both above and below the current price levels. This structure reinforces the ongoing choppy environment, as the market seems content to bounce between established pockets of orders. In such a scenario, the data suggests that patience is the most valuable asset for traders. From this juncture, the market’s trajectory depends on how it reacts after the nearby liquidity is purged. If Bitcoin begins to find acceptance above the current range following a liquidity sweep, the probability shifts toward a bullish expansion, triggering a move into higher upside pockets. Conversely, if the attempt to gain acceptance fails after a sweep, the market remains vulnerable to further downside. This could result in additional sweeping of lower liquidity levels before any sustained recovery can materialize. Until then, the prevailing goal remains a technical clean-up of liquidity before the next major trend is established. Bitcoin Demand Turns Positive After Months Of Weakness CryptosRus recently highlighted that after nearly three months of persistent weakness, Bitcoin’s apparent demand has finally turned back above zero, currently sitting around +1,200 BTC. This marks a notable shift in investors’ sentiment and action in a market struggling with heightened volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin Extreme Fear Streak Extends To 22 Days As Price Struggles Back in December, demand had bottomed near -154,000 BTC, a quantity that helps explain the sluggish price action that persisted in the following weeks. Since then, the pressure has been quietly easing. Selling activity is slowing, and structural accumulation is beginning to re-emerge, signaling a potential shift in market dynamics. It’s important to understand what this metric represents, which is whether long-term holders are absorbing new supply. When demand is deeply negative, the market tends to struggle. Conversely, when the metric turns positive, it suggests that buying activity is rebuilding, creating conditions for a healthier market structure. That said, the market is not out of the woods yet. A single positive print does not confirm a trend reversal. However, if this recovery in demand persists, it is often one of the earliest indicators that the market is transitioning from a distribution phase back toward accumulation, setting the stage for potential sustained strength in the weeks ahead. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin (BTC) price is up nearly 1.6% over the past 24 hours, trading around $68,213, as the total crypto market cap adds roughly 1.8% in a broad relief bounce. The recovery comes amid extreme fear sentiment, suggesting short-term exhaustion on the sell side. Notably, total BTC liquidations dropped 36.85% to $38.7 million, while long liquidations …
Bearish sentiments continue to dominate the Bitcoin market as the premier cryptocurrency looks to record a fifth consecutive monthly loss. Presently, prices are consolidating beneath the $70,000 mark, as market bulls struggle to force a decisive breakout above the resistance zone. Amid this choppy price action, data from the Bitcoin options market shows that traders are beginning to expect less volatility but still acknowledge the fragile nature of the market. Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Could Be Headed For Another Drop: Research Firm Cites Three Key Risks Bitcoin Volatility Expectations Drop, Market Panic Fades In an X post on February 20, Glassnode shared its weekly Bitcoin options market update, analyzing the traders’ behavior and sentiment in relation to present market conditions. The market analytics firm reports a notable change in volatility expectations that helps to subside the presently heightened bearish sentiments. According to Glassnode analysts, At-the-money (ATM) implied volatility across maturities has significantly dropped to around 48%, down significantly from recent highs. Because ATM IV reflects the market’s expected move, the decline suggests traders are no longer betting on an immediate price crash. Notably, this shift is reinforced by moves in DVOL, an indicator for measuring aggregate implied volatility expectations. Following initial spikes during the market liquidation in late January/early February, DVOL has fallen by roughly 10 volatility points over the past two weeks, signaling that extreme hedging demand is easing out. In addition, the short-term volatility risk premium (VRP) has turned positive. Earlier this month, one-week VRP plunged to deeply negative levels at -45, as realized volatility far exceeded implied. Since then, implied volatility has repriced higher while realized volatility has stabilized, restoring a premium in short-dated options. Together, these metrics suggest that panic pricing is being reset, and expectations for outsized, volatile moves have declined. Related Reading: XRP Ledger Gets x402 Facilitator For AI Agent Payments: Why This Is Bullish Bitcoin Traders Remain Alert To Downside Despite the cooling in volatility expectations, other metrics show that traders are maintaining a defensive market position. For example, the Put skew, which measures the relative demand for downside protection versus upside exposure, remains quite heightened despite moving off the extreme hedge. After bottoming near the 7 volatility points, the one-week 25-delta skew has rebounded toward 14 vol. The recovery indicates that while extreme fear has subsided, demand for downside insurance remains firm. The taker flow data also tells a similar story. Puts represented two-thirds of last week’s options activity, with outright put buying representing about 34% of total flow. The dominance of protective positioning suggests that market participants are not fully convinced the correction has run its course. In conclusion, the options market is signaling a more measured outlook, where expectations for immediate turmoil have faded, but traders are hedging to hedge against the risk of another downside. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $67,628 following a 0.92% gain in the last 24 hours. More data from Glassnode also shows that Dealers are broadly short gamma across a wide price range between $70,000 and $58,000, a positioning structure that could amplify selling pressure if Bitcoin extends losses. Conversely, a large gamma concentration around $75,000 suggests positioning for a potential rebound. Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview
A seasoned investor’s bold claim about XRP has reignited a common question in crypto markets: could a token built for fast settlement ever outgrow the original store-of-value? Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Bleeds $1 Trillion, Saylor Signals Strongest Crypto Conviction Yet According to posts on X by longtime Bitcoin backer Pumpius, if central banks adopt a single on-chain bridge, XRP could eclipse Bitcoin “by magnitude.” On-Chain Tension And Policy Moves Reports note recent market moves that have worried policy makers and traders. The trading desk at the Federal Reserve requested indicative dollar/yen quotes after a sharp move in the yen, a step that Treasury officials had asked for. That rare check underlines how currency volatility can push officials to consider new tools, and it has renewed talk about faster settlement rails. Every Central Bank will use XRP as the bridge asset. It’s now becoming a reality. When this happens, XRP will surpass Bitcoin by magnitude. Bookmark this. https://t.co/xyWxhVDCLx pic.twitter.com/kFTsXSw6Hn — Pumpius (@pumpius) February 19, 2026 Ripple’s Timeline And Institutional Talk Based on reports from company briefings and executive posts, Ripple’s leadership sees 2026 as the year when larger, regulated players might put real money onto the XRP Ledger. Ripple President Monica Long has sketched out scenarios where banks and asset managers run production systems tied to on-chain liquidity pools. Those views have been picked up across crypto news outlets and have added fuel to bullish narratives. How Would A Bridge Asset Work? Imagine dollar and euro liquidity on a ledger, available for near-instant swaps. In practice, permissioned pools and regulated stablecoins could provide the rails while an on-chain order book or matching engine handles the trades. Settlement times would be measured in seconds. Audit trails would be automatic. That said, large institutions put a premium on rules and oversight; any real rollout would be gradual and cautious. XRP Vs. BTC: The Size Of The Gap Numbers matter. Bitcoin’s market cap sits comfortably in the trillions, while XRP’s market value is under $100 billion dollars, depending on which tracker you consult. That gap is not small. For XRP to “flip” Bitcoin at present values would require trillions more in capital moving into the token — a shift that would likely need broad institutional flows and major regulatory clarity. Related Reading: Saylor Makes Bold $1M Bitcoin Call — “It’s Zero Or A Million” Geopolitics Adds Noise Geopolitical strain and trade frictions, amplified by speeches or decisions from leaders, can make markets jittery. US President Donald Trump has been named in debates over policy shifts and geopolitical risk, which in turn affect capital flows and safe-haven bids. When politics moves markets, technical fixes such as faster settlement can look more attractive on paper; adoption in practice is another matter. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Top bluechip crypto assets are heading into the weekend flashing something traders rarely ignore these are negative 30-day MVRV readings. Ethereum sits at -14.3%, while Bitcoin follows at -6.9%, with Chainlink (-5.1%), XRP (-4.1%), and Cardano (-2.0%) close behind. In simple? Average trader returns are below zero. That doesn’t guarantee a bounce. But it does …
The middle of January marked the continuation of an already struggling price action for Bitcoin, as it took on another sharp downtrend. Early into February, the flagship cryptocurrency seemed to be on a free-fall, even breaching important psychological price levels as it crashed. One of these levels is the cost basis of one of Bitcoin’s most influential investor cohorts – the Bitcoin ETF investors. Data from a recent on-chain evaluation reveals that Bitcoin has since traded underneath this price, and has continued to meet investors with growing heat. Related Reading: Bithumb $43 Billion Bitcoin Blunder Triggers Political Backlash In South Korea MVRV Falls Below 1 — What This Means Market analyst PelinayPA has recently taken to QuickTake to reveal that the Bitcoin price is trading below the average realized price of Bitcoin ETFs, and the possible implications of this market setup. Notably, the ETF MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) index has also slipped under the 1 mark, reinforcing the agitated situation of most ETF investors. Historically, a sustained move below an MVRV of 1 signals increasing stress conditions within the BTC market, as it reflects an overwhelming dominance of unrealized losses amid an investor group. According to PelinayPA, this condition may cause sell-pressure to heighten, seeing as market participants would increasingly act on their emotions when dealing in the market. As such, short-term recovery attempts are likely to be met with significant resistance (as is currently the case) until the situation sees a turnaround. This is because investors who entered at higher price levels would likely exit their positions at break-even, or even under minimal losses, to avoid deep losses. Because the realized price of Bitcoin ETFs is approximately $80,000, this price region could act as a strong resistance level in the event that the Bitcoin price attempts a rebound. PelinayPA clarifies that if MVRV stabilizes within the 0.8–0.9 range, it could be a sign that the current bear pressure is nearing an exhaustion point; a scenario that could precede a short-term rebound towards the realized price. On the other hand, if the MVRV continues to decline (as the analyst expects), it could be problematic for the Bitcoin price. This is because ETFs would be under significant pressure, which could trigger sell-offs among this investor cohort. This would, in turn, increase downward pressure and further send prices downwards, especially in the long-term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Historic Buying Zone, Indicator Suggests Bitcoin Market Overview As of this writing, Bitcoin trades for $68,000, reflecting a 1.58% growth in 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap data. Per SoSoValue data, Bitcoin ETFs have recorded a total net outflow of about $1.08 billion in February. This is after an even more staggering net withdrawal figure of $1.61 billion in January. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
Stablecoin supply is crypto’s deployable cash. With a total stablecoin market cap of around $307.92 billion and down -1.13% in the past 30 days, the pool has stopped growing month over month. When supply stalls, price moves get sharper, and Bitcoin feels it first in thin depth and bigger wicks. Stablecoins sit in a strange […]
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Bitcoin is navigating a tense market environment as sentiment weakens and volatility picks up. The mood has shifted from cautious optimism to defensive positioning, with traders reacting quickly to negative signals. As per Lookonchain data, a major trigger was the transfer of roughly $760 million worth of BTC to Binance by prominent trader Garett Jin. …
Markets are quiet and uneasy. Bitcoin prices have pulled back, and big holders are keeping a cool face while the charts wobble. Reports note that one outspoken investor frames the market in stark terms: it either fails completely or becomes far more valuable than people now imagine. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Bleeds $1 Trillion, Saylor Signals Strongest Crypto Conviction Yet Saylor’s Binary Bet According to Michael Saylor, Bitcoin has only two plausible final outcomes: worthless, or worth $1 million per coin. That is not a quick trading idea. It’s a long-running view about scarcity and demand. Saylor argues that a fixed supply paired with growing institutional buying and broader custody tools makes a future of massive price gains possible. He points to more banks, more spot ETFs and bigger corporate allocations as proof that demand has matured. If it’s not going to zero, it’s going to a million. $BTC — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 20, 2026 A Warning From The Other Side Reports note that not everyone agrees. Mike McGlone of Bloomberg has sketched a darker path, one where price pressure and macro shocks could push values much lower — even toward $10,000. That view is rooted in history: markets can fall a long way before confidence returns. Short-term moves can be savage. Longer swings can be slower to recover. Both views are true on their own terms, because they answer different questions about time and risk. Balance Sheet And Funding Based on reports, the firm backing Saylor’s posture holds a very large stake: 717,131 BTC bought at an average cost of $76,027 a coin. That position is underwater for now. Still, financing choices matter. Strategy relies on equity, convertible notes, and preferred shares to meet cash needs. Arkham Intelligence has mapped out that preferred dividends are optional and redemptions are not automatic, which lowers the chance of forced sales right away. That setup buys time, though it does not erase exposure if prices stay low for a long stretch. SAYLOR IS UNDERWATER. BUT WILL HE SELL BTC? Saylor is over 10% underwater from his average purchase price. But what could actually force him to sell Bitcoin? Here’s an explainer of how, when and why Strategy might be forced to sell BTC. pic.twitter.com/uKbJ3ivO54 — Arkham (@arkham) February 20, 2026 Supply, Demand And The Big Numbers Saylor’s $1 million projection is driven by a supply argument: there are only 21 million coins. If enough institutions and treasuries keep buying, the math pushes the price up. He has said that with a particular share of total coins held by his firm, values could move into the millions, and he has sketched an even higher, $10 million possibility under stronger concentration scenarios. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Historic Buying Zone, Indicator Suggests Those are not forecasts you can treat like short-term targets. They are conditional models — possible only if adoption, regulation and market behavior all line up for years. The path forward is not easy. Bitcoin could crawl higher, stumble and trade in narrow ranges for years, or shoot up as new buyers enter. Politics, regulation and global liquidity will shape which route unfolds. Institutional entry has changed the market structure, but it has not removed the risk of big drawdowns. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView
Ever since the altcoins hit the rock bottom levels during the sell-off in the first week of the month, they have been maintaining a tight consolidation. Underneath this, they are flashing early warning signs, and traders have begun to take notice. Several major cryptos are slipping below key support levels, momentum indicators are weakening, and …
In crypto news today, the broader market is heading into the weekend with surprising stability. Bitcoin price is consolidating near $68,000, while Ethereum price is hovering around $1,960, and the XRP price is holding firm near $1.42. While volatility has cooled across majors, underlying positioning suggests the calm may be more strategic than passive. Bitcoin …
The collaboration highlights growing institutional interest in crypto, potentially accelerating mainstream adoption and financial innovation.
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South Korean lawmakers are ramping up pressure on financial regulators after a system failure at Bithumb, the country’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, led to the accidental distribution of more than $43 billion worth of Bitcoin (BTC) earlier this month. The February 6 incident has triggered political scrutiny of both the exchange itself and the agencies responsible for overseeing the virtual asset market. Behind The Bithumb Massive Bitcoin Mishap According to local reporting by The Korea Times, members of the National Assembly are questioning how such a massive error could slip through despite repeated regulatory inspections. Rep. Kang Min-guk of the main opposition People Power Party disclosed that the country’s Financial Services Commission (FSC) reviewed Bithumb three times between 2022 and 2025. Over the same period, the Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) conducted three separate inspections. Yet regulators failed to detect what has now been described as a critical structural weakness in the exchange’s system. Related Reading: ‘Sell Bitcoin Now,’ Peter Schiff Warns, Predicts $20,000 Target On Breakdown Kang argued that existing oversight mechanisms were inadequate. He pointed out that safeguards were insufficient to prevent a situation in which a single employee could initiate massive coin transfers. Kang said: The episode is not merely a technical mishap but a case that lays bare deeper structural weaknesses in the virtual asset market, including complacent supervision and gaps in regulation. Instead of crediting users with Bitcoin worth 2,000 won — approximately $1.38 — the system mistakenly credited 2,000 Bitcoin per user. In total, 620,000 Bitcoin were incorrectly distributed. Rep. Han Chang-min of the minor Social Democratic Party also criticized regulators, questioning whether supervisory authorities had meaningfully evaluated the exchange’s internal systems. “Authorities appeared to be shifting responsibility onto Bithumb despite their supervisory role,” Han said. Broader Crypto Oversight In response to the incident, the FSS extended the deadline for its formal investigation from Feb. 13 to the end of the month, citing the need for additional time. An eight-member inspection team is now intensifying its review, focusing on possible violations related to investor protection and anti-money laundering (AML) compliance. Particular attention is being given to the system architecture that allowed coins not actually held by the exchange to be credited to users. Regulators have not ruled out the possibility that further erroneous distributions could be uncovered. Related Reading: House Democrats Urge Treasury Probe Into Trump Family’s Crypto Venture Separately, financial authorities have reportedly formed an emergency response team in coordination with the Digital Asset eXchange Alliance (DAXA), a self-regulatory body representing domestic exchanges. The team has begun inspections of asset verification and internal control systems at four other platforms — Upbit, Coinone, Korbit, and GOPAX. Any deficiencies are expected to be incorporated into DAXA’s self-regulatory guidelines and could influence the next phase of cryptocurrency legislation in South Korea. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $67,763, marking a 2% decline over the past seven days and showing minimal change since Thursday’s trading session. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Data shows the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index continues to be inside the extreme fear zone as the cryptocurrency market continues to struggle. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Still Pointing At ‘Extreme Fear’ The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. The index uses the data of the following five factors to determine the market mentality: trading volume, market cap dominance, volatility, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. Related Reading: Bitcoin Big-Money Exits: Large-Holder Supply Hits Lowest Since May 2025 When the value of the metric is greater than 53, it means the sentiment shared by the majority of the investors is that of greed. On the other hand, the indicator being under 47 suggests the investors are fearful. Naturally, values lying between the two thresholds indicate the presence of a net neutral mentality. Besides these three main zones, there are also two ‘extreme’ areas called the extreme fear (25 and under) and extreme greed (above 75). Recently, the market has been inside the former of the two. Here is how the latest value of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index looks: As is visible above, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has a value of 7, which is pretty deep into the extreme fear zone. In fact, this level of despair is something that the traders have rarely held historically. The Fear & Greed Index has consistently been at similarly low levels during the last couple of weeks, as the below chart shows. Overall, the indicator has been stuck inside the extreme fear territory for 22 straight days now. The recent bad market sentiment is a result of the drawdown that the Bitcoin price has faced. In the past, cryptocurrency markets have often tended to move in the direction that goes contrary to the expectations of the majority. The probability of a contrarian move occurring has generally been the strongest in the extreme sentiment zones as that’s where the crowd is the most sure about the market’s outcome. Given this, the recent extreme fear mentality could help the sector bottom out. The lowest that the metric has gone this cycle is 5, which is similar to the lowest point of the previous bear market. In that bear market, however, the market consolidated and spent more time inside the extreme fear zone even after the low in the Fear & Greed Index, before a bottom was eventually reached. Related Reading: XRP Social Sentiment Hits 5-Week High—BTC, ETH Mood Still Off It now remains to be seen how long Bitcoin and others will take to hit a cyclical low this time around. BTC Price Bitcoin has been unable to make much recovery since its bounce from the $60,000 level as its price continues to trade around $67,700. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin (BTC) is currently holding below the key $70,000 level. Still, a new report from data and research firm Ecoinometrics suggests that the market may not be building a base for recovery. Instead, the firm argues that the cryptocurrency remains vulnerable to another downward move, driven by three overlapping forces: weakening equity momentum, structural changes in Bitcoin’s volatility profile, and a Federal Reserve (Fed) that is steady but not supportive. Structural Headwinds For Bitcoin According to the report, Bitcoin no longer trades in isolation. It has become increasingly linked to equity markets, capital flows, and broader macroeconomic conditions. At the moment, that linkage is not working in its favor. Bitcoin is already showing signs of weakness, equity markets are losing steam, and the Federal Reserve is maintaining a neutral stance that offers little additional liquidity support. Together, those factors keep downside risks elevated. Related Reading: ‘Sell Bitcoin Now,’ Peter Schiff Warns, Predicts $20,000 Target On Breakdown While Bitcoin has attempted to stabilize in recent weeks, Ecoinometrics cautions that this does not resemble a clear bottoming pattern. Rather, it looks more like a pause within an ongoing bear phase. Structural headwinds are already in place, as highlighted by the firm, including continued outflows from Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and a broader “risk-off” environment in financial markets. The report noted that Bitcoin is trading below its long-term trend, with its 200-day moving average (currently above $100,000) turning downward and rallies repeatedly failing beneath that level — a classic sign of a bearish structure. By contrast, the Nasdaq 100 has stalled for roughly three months, but its 200-day moving average is still rising. That suggests equities are slowing but have not yet entered a confirmed structural downturn. The distinction is important. When Bitcoin weakens on its own, declines can unfold gradually. However, history shows that when equities roll over decisively, Bitcoin tends to fall sharply alongside them. Lower Volatility, Higher Correlation Beyond price action, the firm highlights a deeper structural shift in Bitcoin’s behavior: a marked compression in volatility. In prior cycles, 12-month realized volatility surged dramatically during both bull markets and subsequent crashes. This time, even after a full bear-bull-bear sequence since 2022, volatility has not returned to those previous extremes. In fact, peak volatility in the current cycle has been materially lower. This change reflects who is driving demand. ETF flows now play a dominant role in shaping trends. These flows are typically larger, steadier, and more systematic than the retail-driven surges that characterized earlier cycles. Bitcoin, in other words, has become embedded within institutional portfolios, often sitting alongside technology and growth stocks. That shift brings advantages, including lower volatility and more predictable flow patterns. It may also strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term durability. However, it comes with a trade-off: deeper sensitivity to equity market drawdowns. Ecoinometrics asserts that as BTC becomes more integrated into the broader risk-on complex, it behaves more like a component of that system rather than a detached speculative asset. Downside Risks Grow On the policy front, Ecoinometrics suggests the Fed’s posture remains largely unchanged: inflation has improved but is not fully contained, and the labor market remains resilient. Related Reading: House Democrats Urge Treasury Probe Into Trump Family’s Crypto Venture As a result, rate cuts are not urgent, and rate hikes are not imminent. The communications index sits well below the tightening peak seen in 2022 and far above the crisis-level dovishness of 2020, placing current policy in the middle ground. For Bitcoin, that steady stance removes the risk of a sudden policy shock, but it does not provide a tailwind. The firm said in a fragile market, stability may be preferable to tightening, yet it offers little support if risk assets begin to slide. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Reports say a popular risk metric has fallen into territory that, in the past, lined up with major buying opportunities for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Bleeds $1 Trillion, Saylor Signals Strongest Crypto Conviction Yet The short-term Sharpe Ratio has plunged to about -38.38, a level that markets rarely see. Traders who follow on-chain and statistical signals point out that similar extremes showed up around the lows of 2015, 2019, and late 2022 — moments that later saw sizable recoveries, CryptoQuant verified author Moreno said. Sharpe Ratio Hits Unusual Low The Sharpe Ratio measures returns against volatility. When it drops far below zero over short stretches, it means investors have been taking heavy losses relative to how wildly the market is moving. A -38.38 reading is extreme. Reports note this kind of reading has happened only four times in Bitcoin’s history, and each time followed a stretch of high stress and weak sentiment. That pattern suggests selling can exhaust itself even when the charts look bleak. Bitcoin’s Short-Term Sharpe Ratio Hit a Level Historically Reserved For Generational Buying Zones “The arrows in the chart illustrate this clearly: each prior extreme negative reading was followed by violent recoveries to new highs.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/nxFBUgHxi9 — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) February 19, 2026 Historical Lows And Recoveries Past cycles give one way to read the signal. Around $287 in 2015, and near $4,100 in early 2019, and again around $15,000 in late 2022, risk measures and mood were at their worst before money flowed back in. Based on reports from on-chain analysts, those moments shared common traits: many traders had capitulated, volume was thin, and volatility spiked. Yet those conditions later coincided with multi-month rallies that erased large parts of the prior losses. Bitcoin Price Action Bitcoin’s price has been sensitive to headlines lately. It slid under psychological levels as risk assets weakened, and trading has been muted. Markets reacted to diplomatic rows and conflict-related stories, causing bigger moves in thin markets. Sometimes BTC held up and brushed off sharp risk-off flows. Other times it fell further, especially when liquidity dried up. That stop-and-start behavior has left short-term traders cautious, while longer-term holders watch for signs that selling momentum is fading. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Record Red Month May Be Setting Up A Reversal: Analysts Clear Coast Ahead? Based on reports and the data, this signal is not a magic ticket. External forces — such as tightening liquidity or a macro shock — can keep downward pressure longer than statistical patterns alone would predict. The recent 50% fall from an all-time high near $126,200 in October 2025 to about $65,700 shows much of the move is already behind us, but it does not rule out more pain. Risk management matters. Position sizing and clear entry plans will help anyone who decides to act around these levels. Featured image from Anne Connelly – Medium, chart from TradingView
On-chain data shows the key Bitcoin investors have been distributing recently, with their supply share dropping to the lowest level in months. Large Holder Demand For Bitcoin Has Remained Weak Recently In a new post on X, on-chain analytics firm Santiment has talked about how the Bitcoin investor behavior has compared between the top and low ends of the market. Related Reading: XRP Social Sentiment Hits 5-Week High—BTC, ETH Mood Still Off The analytics firm has chosen these wallet ranges to represent the two sides: 0 to 0.01 BTC and 10 to 10,000 BTC. The former includes the smallest of retail investors, while the latter includes key investor cohorts like the sharks and whales. Below is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the percentage of the total circulating Bitcoin supply held by each cohort. As is visible in the graph, the 0 to 0.01 BTC cohort has been expanding its supply since the October price peak. Bitcoin has witnessed a deep drawdown inside this window, but the data would imply that it hasn’t held back retail traders from accumulating. In total, this accumulation has expanded the holdings of these small hands by 2.5%, taking their percentage supply share to the highest level since June 2024. While retail has been buying, the sharks and whales have shown a different trajectory. From the chart, it’s apparent that the 10 to 10,000 BTC holders sold alongside the market drawdown between October and December. In January, these investors participated in some buying, which interestingly coincided with a drop in retail holdings. Then, the drawdown toward the end of the month again kicked off a selloff from the key investors. This selloff was steep, in fact sharper than any part of Q4 2025’s distribution phase. Recently, even as Bitcoin has made some recovery from its $60,000 low and found some stability, the big-money investors haven’t shown any return of bullish conviction. Compared to the October peak, the supply of the 10 to 10,000 BTC holders is now down 0.8%, which has taken the network share of this group to the lowest since May 2025. Related Reading: Bitcoin Consolidating In A Triangle—Is A 15% Move Next? The analytics firm explained: Optimally, we begin to see these two Bitcoin groups begin to reverse course. Without key stakeholder support, any spark of a rally will tend to be slightly limited due to the lack of large capital. In another X post, Santiment has also discussed the behavior of the mid-tier Bitcoin holders, occupying the space between retail and large investors. As displayed in the chart, the 0.01 to 1 BTC wallets have seen their combined Bitcoin supply hit a 15-month high following a 1.05% increase since October. Meanwhile, the 1 to 10 BTC hands have reduced their holdings by 0.49% in the same period. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $67,400, up 0.7% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
The industry’s largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH), are enduring one of their most difficult openings to a year on record, according to a recent analysis by Fortune, with both digital assets trading sharply below their previous peaks. Bitcoin is currently down roughly 46% from its all-time high, while Ethereum has fallen about 60% from its record level. The steep declines mark what the publication describes as historically poor year-to-date performances for the assets. Bitcoin, Ethereum Lag While S&P 500, Gold Post Gains While Bitcoin and Ethereum, along with broader crypto prices, have often moved in tandem with equities in recent years, that relationship has weakened over the past two months. Since January, major US stock indices have edged higher. The S&P 500 has gained approximately 0.4%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has climbed 2.3%. Precious metals have also performed strongly. Gold has surged about 17% since the start of the year, while silver has advanced roughly 14%, even after experiencing a brief drop several weeks ago. Related Reading: ‘Sell Bitcoin Now,’ Peter Schiff Warns, Predicts $20,000 Target On Breakdown The disconnect between cryptocurrencies and broader market gains has prompted some industry observers to declare the arrival of another “Crypto Winter.” “We’re certainly in a Crypto Winter,” said Danny Nelson, a research analyst at crypto asset manager Bitwise. He pointed to investor behavior as evidence of deteriorating sentiment. “You can tell by how investors react to good news,” Nelson said. “They don’t.” ‘We’re Really Close To The End’ Despite the current pullback and the increased challenges for prices seen since the October 10 liquidation event, Nelson argues that the underlying foundation of the industry is strengthening. “Crypto’s reality is getting stronger,” he said, adding that the structural changes underway are likely to outlast the current downturn. Related Reading: House Democrats Urge Treasury Probe Into Trump Family’s Crypto Venture Similar sentiments have been expressed by Tom Lee, cofounder of research firm Fundstrat and a long-time supporter of Ethereum. In a recent interview, Lee suggested the market may be nearing a turning point, stating, “We’re really close to the end.” Whether the latest slump proves to be a temporary correction or a deeper cycle shift remains uncertain. For now, however, the data underscores a challenging start to the year for the cryptocurrency market, even as other asset classes continue to surge. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $67,595, which is a slight 1% increase compared to Thursday’s prices. Ethereum is trading at around $1,968, with similar gains over the past 24 hours. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin's current bear market could worsen over the next year if the flagship digital asset fails to address concerns about quantum computing. In a Feb. 20 report, Charles Edwards, Capriole founder, claimed that Bitcoin’s market value should already be discounted for quantum risk and warned that the discount could deepen quickly if the network does […]
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Bitcoin is struggling to reclaim the $69,000 level as persistent selling pressure continues to dominate the short-term market structure. After multiple failed attempts to establish acceptance above this key psychological threshold, price action reflects a defensive environment marked by reduced risk appetite and elevated volatility. Traders remain cautious, with liquidity conditions tightening and momentum favoring sellers rather than sustained accumulation. Related Reading: Ethereum Breaks the Final Whale Floor In A 2018-Style Capitulation: What To Expect New on-chain data shared by analyst Maartunn adds another layer to the current landscape. According to his insights, Bitcoin whales are firmly dominating the market structure at this stage of the cycle. Over the past 30 days alone, approximately $8.24 billion worth of whale-held BTC has flowed into Binance, marking the highest level of large-holder inflows to the exchange in the last 14 months. Such a concentration of activity suggests that major participants are actively repositioning. The data also underscores Binance’s continued role as the primary liquidity venue for large-scale transactions. When whale flows accelerate toward exchanges at this magnitude, it often signals heightened strategic activity — whether for distribution, hedging, or tactical allocation. As Bitcoin consolidates below resistance, the behavior of these dominant market participants may play a decisive role in shaping the next directional move. Whale Dominance Intensifies As Retail Momentum Cools Maartunn further detailed the 30-day flow breakdown, offering a clearer view of how market participation is evolving. Over the past month, whale inflows to Binance have reached $8.24 billion and continue to trend higher. In comparison, retail inflows total approximately $11.91 billion but have begun to flatten. As a result, the retail-to-whale ratio currently stands at 1.45 and is steadily compressing. Although retail participation remains visible, its momentum is cooling. The pace of smaller deposits has slowed, suggesting declining conviction or reduced speculative activity among short-term traders. In contrast, whale deposits have increased consistently over the same period, indicating that larger entities are either actively positioning or reallocating capital with greater urgency. This dynamic is narrowing the gap between large and small participants on the exchange. When whale flows accelerate while retail flows plateau, market structure tends to become more top-heavy, with price increasingly influenced by institutional-scale actors rather than fragmented retail activity. The key takeaway is clear: large players are becoming more dominant on Binance, while smaller participants are gradually losing relative influence. In the current environment, Bitcoin’s next directional move may depend more heavily on whale strategy than retail sentiment. Related Reading: The 200 Million XRP Exodus: Investors Swap Speculation For Private Custody Bitcoin Tests Critical Support As Downtrend Accelerates Bitcoin’s 3-day chart reflects a decisive loss of momentum following the rejection near the $120,000 region in late 2025. Since that peak, price structure has transitioned into a clear corrective phase characterized by lower highs and accelerating downside pressure. The most recent leg lower shows a sharp breakdown from the $90,000–$95,000 consolidation zone, with BTC now hovering around the $68,000 area. Technically, Bitcoin is trading below the shorter-term moving average, which has rolled over and is sloping downward, reinforcing near-term bearish momentum. The intermediate moving average is flattening and beginning to turn lower, signaling weakening trend strength. Meanwhile, the long-term average remains upward sloping but sits well below current price levels, suggesting that while the macro structure has not fully collapsed, the market is in a transitional phase. Related Reading: The Altcoin Exodus: Trading Volumes Halve As Capital Flees To Bitcoin $65,000 Fortress Volume expanded noticeably during the recent selloff, indicating active distribution rather than a passive drift lower. However, the latest candles show some stabilization near the $65,000–$70,000 support region, an area that previously acted as a breakout zone earlier in the cycle. A sustained reclaim of the $75,000–$80,000 range would be required to restore bullish structure. Failure to hold current levels could expose deeper retracement toward long-term trend support. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Bitcoin is once again at a critical level, and traders are asking the big question: how low can Bitcoin price go if support breaks? In a recent market discussion, one experienced trader outlined the levels he is watching and explained what would confirm further downside for BTC. The Important Bitcoin Level: $65,800 According to Pro …
Michael Saylor kept buying while the market slid, and he did it out loud: “Neven been more bullish,” he said in an X post Thursday. His public posts and regulatory filings show Strategy continued to add to its Bitcoin pile even as price swings turned paper gains into big unrealized losses. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Record Red Month May Be Setting Up A Reversal: Analysts The firm’s recent regulatory filing confirms a fresh purchase this month, while market reports and accounting disclosures show the wider hit to corporate treasuries. Market Value Drop Shakes Portfolios Bitcoin has shed roughly $1.2 trillion of market value since October 2025, and the wider crypto market has lost about $2 trillion in the same stretch. Prices that once pushed Bitcoin past $126,000 have fallen back toward the mid-$60,000s. That scale of decline has pushed several companies that used Bitcoin as a treasury asset into heavy mark-to-market losses, changing how investors view corporate crypto exposure. Never Been More ₿ullish. — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 19, 2026 Strategy Keeps Buying According to the company’s own filings, Strategy acquired 2,486 BTC for roughly $168 million during mid-February, bringing its holdings above 700k coins. The buy was announced in a Form 8-K and has been picked up across market outlets. At the same time, accounting rules that require unrealized gains and losses to be reflected in reports mean the firm’s quarterly statements showed multibillion-dollar swings tied to Bitcoin’s price. That reality has put Strategy on the front lines of the debate over holding large crypto positions on balance sheets. Price Action And Headlines Moved Markets Bitcoin’s trading has been choppy. Headlines tied to geopolitics and macro policy moved traders, and low-volume sessions made swings feel bigger. ETF outflows and a string of liquidations amplified the slide. Still, there were moments when buyers stepped in and pushed prices up briefly; those countermoves have been picked over by analysts hunting for a bottom. Image: Wall Street Pit Bullish Voices, Loud And Public Eric Trump — speaking at an event at Mar-a-Lago — made a very bullish prediction that was reposted and amplified, and that kind of public optimism appears to have rubbed off on other high-profile backers. Go bitcoin today. The money won’t fix itself. — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 13, 2026 Saylor reposted and echoed similar buy-the-dip messages, urging accumulation even as skeptics warned about the risks. At times political headlines tied to US President Donald Trump and related policy moves were singled out as part of the story behind the 2025 rally that preceded this correction. Related Reading: XRP On The Spotlight As Arizona Advances Landmark Digital Asset Bill Saylor’s latest comment shows he remains firmly confident in Bitcoin. Despite huge losses, he sees dips as buying chances and urges others to stay bullish, keeping his long-term conviction front and center. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin price climbs back above $68,000, registering a 1.8% gain today. On the surface, it appears to be another incremental move inside a broader consolidation range. But beneath the price action, the structural landscape is quietly shifting. After months of measured distribution near prior highs, large holders are rebuilding exposure. On-chain balance data shows that …
Bitcoin price is moving back toward $68,000 after a volatile period, but overall market sentiment remains cautious. Rising geopolitical tensions, a stronger US dollar, and a hawkish signal from the Federal Reserve are limiting risk appetite, even as the price tries to stabilize. Current Crypto Market Sentiment The latest bounce in BTC price looks more …
The Bitcoin price action has taken a grim tone this month as trading rolls toward what may become a fifth straight red monthly candle. According to CoinGlass, BTC is down roughly 15% this month after closing the previous four months lower, a run not seen since 2018. Related Reading: XRP On The Spotlight As Arizona Advances Landmark Digital Asset Bill Reports note that similar multimonth selloffs in the past were sometimes followed by sudden, strong rebounds, but those outcomes were not automatic. Traders are watching support near recent lows while sentiment indicators show rising caution among both retail and institutional players. Historical Streaks And Reversals Reports from Milk Road point to a striking example: after a long losing streak in 2018/19, the market produced large gains in the months that followed. That episode is often referenced by bulls who argue that compressed prices can set the stage for big percentage moves to the upside. Yet context matters. Market cycles are messy, and raw percentage comparisons skip over differences in liquidity, participant mix, and macro settings. Source: CoinGlass Weekly And Quarterly Signals Weekly charts are shouting caution in some corners. Analyst Solana Sensei highlighted a run of red weekly candles that echoes parts of 2022, when extended selling drove BTC to the mid-$20,000s. At the same time, quarterly data from the 2022 drawdown shows losses can stack up for long stretches, and those patterns were painful for holders who expected quick turns. Some analysts have argued that the current cycle looks different because the monthly RSI never saw the same overbought expansion that preceded some prior bear phases; their view suggests rebounds might not follow the old script. $BTC is looking to log its 5th red month. Last time this happened was in 2018/19 when we saw 6 red months. Silver lining: it led to a reversal w/ 316% returns over the following 5 months. If history repeats – the reversal begins April 1st. Bookmark this. pic.twitter.com/IZwmdg0peV — Milk Road (@MilkRoad) February 18, 2026 Bitcoin Price Action The top crypto’s price movement has been mixed: thin sessions, sharp swings on headlines, muted volume between moves. The market has been both brittle and occasionally steady, depending on who is trading and where liquidity pools sit. Geopolitics And Market Mood Geopolitical flareups have acted as a volatility amplifier, and traders are pricing in headline risk more readily than before. Events tied to policies or public comments have dented confidence across risk assets. Related Reading: CEO Confirms Bitcoin Exposure, Says Bank Is Still Navigating US policy shifts and high-profile political statements — including ones linked to US President Donald Trump — are being watched for any spillover into dollar flows and investor risk tolerance. Thin market conditions can turn small news into big moves. That’s exactly what’s been happening on occasion over the last few weeks. Based on reports and the mix of indicators, a rebound in March or April is possible, but it cannot be counted on. Some traders will prepare for a quick bounce; others will keep dry powder and wait for clearer confirmation. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin mining difficulty jumped 14.7% to 144.4T in a record absolute increase as hashrate rebounded after U.S. winter storm curtailments.
Bitcoin’s mining difficulty jumped roughly 15% to a new all‑time high of about 144.4 trillion, bouncing back from a recent steep decline after storms reduced global hashrate by up to 30%. The rebound reflects miners powering machines back on and total hashrate climbing close to 1 zettahash per second, helping keep block times near the …
Bitcoin’s slide into the $60,000–$70,000 zone has lit up the usual “bottom” dashboards: extreme fear, washed-out positioning, and a cluster of indicators many traders treat as capitulation signals. But CryptoQuant contributor Mignolet says the market is missing the only thing that ultimately matters: a visible bid from dominant buyers. “What I emphasized in the $80K–$90K range still remains the same,” he wrote on Feb. 18. “Many indicators that market participants follow are pointing to a bottom and extreme fear. However, we do not see dominant players (whales) actually using this situation.” Mignolet’s core argument is simple: a bottom is not a sentiment reading, it’s an event and he doesn’t see the kind of forced absorption that typically marks a durable turn. “No matter how many indicators suggest a bottom, if there is no real buying force stepping in, we cannot know where the true bottom will be,” he said. “That is why I do not make price predictions lightly.” Related Reading: Revealed: The Biggest Bitcoin Holders Of 2026, According To Arkham Data He contrasted the current tape with the 2024 bull cycle, when fear could still dominate headlines even as large allocators quietly took the other side. In that period, he argues, the market had a measurable backstop: institutional demand showing up through US spot Bitcoin ETFs, specifically BlackRock’s IBIT and Fidelity’s FBTC, which “clearly absorbed the selling pressure.” The “most important point,” in his framing, is that the same mechanics aren’t showing up now. Mignolet says the accumulation pattern FBTC sustained for roughly a year has “already broken down,” and IBIT, previously described as a buffer during heavy sell pressure, is “now trending downward, unlike last year.” That shift is why he keeps the bottom call “on ice,” even if price ultimately holds the current region. In his view, Bitcoin remains in a phase where traders should “be cautious about further shocks,” and even a successful defense would likely require time before it can be treated as confirmed. When Everyone Reads The Same Bitcoin Data Beyond flow, Mignolet is also warning about a structural change in how market narratives form. He argues the proliferation of on-chain analytics has made the space more information-dense, but not necessarily more insightful and in some cases, more hazardous. Related Reading: Bitcoin Doesn’t Get A Macro ‘Bailout’ This Time: Alden Warns Of Gradual QE “The problem is that everyone looks at the same data and often reaches similar conclusions,” he wrote. “In many cases, even the people producing the data do not fully understand it. When information becomes too common, it pushes expectations in one direction.” He describes today’s well-packaged on-chain dashboards as “clean and convincing, almost like an answer sheet,” which can harden conviction precisely when flexibility is required. The downstream risk, he suggests, is that widespread agreement around “obvious” bottoms can keep investors anchored through deeper drawdowns or longer grind periods. In the near term, Mignolet’s base case is not a clean trend reversal but “sideways movement without a clear direction,” with enough volatility to create opportunities for short-term traders. For his own positioning, he described the period as “waiting,” stepping back to watch “liquidity flows, supply and demand conditions, and overall market sentiment,” then “reset” his framework. The bigger picture, he says, is still bearish and potentially more drawn out than he expected last year. His closing warning is that this down cycle is “unlikely to end lightly,” with the plausible outcomes being a larger-than-expected drop, a longer-than-expected sideways phase, or both. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $67,889. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com