The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Michael Saylor’s quiet hint this weekend put a spotlight on a methodical habit that has quietly shaped corporate crypto moves for years. Related Reading: XRP Flashes Rare On-Chain Signal That Once Preceded 114% Gains Michael Saylor posted a chart with the caption “The Orange Century,” and through that single image he signaled what many traders already suspected: the company he chairs is poised to make another buy. Strategy has been buying Bitcoin in steady doses since 2020. Reports note the firm has completed 99 buys so far. That makes the next purchase the 100th. Short headline. Big milestone. The buy count matters because it shows a pattern more than it shows timing. Buy Pace And Signals The image Saylor shared on the X platform is the same type of chart the company has shown before when a purchase was near. Other market watchers read the post as a likely prelude to actual buy orders. The company has not issued a formal press release about a specific date. The Orange Century. pic.twitter.com/8zelTduTPC — Michael Saylor (@saylor) February 22, 2026 Recent Activity And Holdings According to public records, the firm now holds about 717,131 BTC at an average cost near $76,027 per coin. Market prices have drifted lower from that average. Bitcoin was trading around $65,050 at the time of the reports. That gap has put the firm’s cost basis in the red on paper. Still, buying has continued; the company has added BTC for many consecutive weeks in 2026 and showed no obvious pause even as prices moved down. Shareholders And Market Reaction Reports note that since the initial stake was bought in August 2020, the firm’s stock has climbed sharply. Yahoo Finance data shows a rise from roughly $12.44 then to about $131.05 at the time this report was made, an increase of around 950%. That price swing has made the strategy attractive to some investors who wanted exposure to Bitcoin through a public stock. Others worry about concentration risk when a single asset so heavily shapes a company’s balance sheet. How This Fits Broader Trends Other firms have copied pieces of this playbook. Moving treasury cash into Bitcoin has become one option among several for companies that want to shield some value from inflation or to chase upside tied to crypto. Related Reading: Political Meme Coins Implode: TRUMP Down 92%, MELANIA Nearly Wiped Out That has had a ripple effect: when big public holders buy, it can shift short-term flows and signal confidence to certain corners of the market. At the same time, critics argue that using corporate coffers to buy a volatile asset brings fresh governance questions. The next move will be watched closely. If the 100th buy happens, it will be seen as a reaffirmation of a strategy that has been consistent for years. Observers will then parse whether the purchase is symbolic, tactical, or simply another step in a long, steady accumulation. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Michael Saylor’s company “Strategy” continues its aggressive Bitcoin acquisition, adding 592 BTC for around 39.8 million dollars at an average price of $67,286 per coin. This latest buy reflects confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term store of value. As of February 22, 2026, Strategy holds 717 722 BTC, purchased for roughly 54.56 billion dollars with an average …
Strategy Inc.'s Bitcoin acquisition underscores the growing trend of corporate investment in digital assets, influencing market dynamics.
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Strategy's holdings account for more than 3.4% of the total 21 million bitcoin supply — worth around $47.5 billion.
Bitcoin has increasingly moved in sync with the software and technology sector, and is reshaping its role in global finance. Rather than behaving like a traditional store of value or independent asset class, BTC has shown price patterns closely tied to technology-driven markets, particularly growth-oriented software companies and digital innovation stocks. This growing connection reflects BTC’s deep roots in technology and its dependence on market conditions that typically influence high-growth sectors and innovation cycles. How Market Liquidity Connects Bitcoin To Software Stocks According to crypto analyst Kevin, Bitcoin has been more tied to the software sector than any other market in recent years. The software underperformance has been caused by massive disruption from Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology, and BTC has also experienced similar underperformance due to AI technology disruption throughout 2025 and the broader market cycle. Related Reading: Thinking Of Buying The Bitcoin Dip? Here’s What This Metric Says However, as BTC is no longer the hottest new tech in the block and a tighter for longer monetary policy is in place, it’s the perfect combo to explain crypto underperformance overall. The key question now is whether BTC can overcome this hurdle in the future. Kevin believes that BTC can overcome this hurdle, but it has to overcome real fundamental narrative challenges for the first time. The current daily chart structure for Bitcoin has been interpreted as a strong bullish setup. Market commentator known as Super฿ro on X has highlighted that it is always better for BTC to flush out the lower liquidity levels first, leaving the overhead liquidity intact, which will later serve as fuel for a potential short squeeze. Thus, BTC had the opportunity to move higher and take out the short positions, but instead left them untouched. Currently, BTC has flushed out almost all the leveraged longs below, which is a setup but not a guarantee. Technically, this pattern could also be viewed as a bear pennant breakdown, with a potential downside target below $50,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Drops To Deepest Level Since FTX Bottom Super฿ro is convinced that this move will prove too ambitious for the bears, as it would push the price into a major multi-year support zone. However, if BTC successfully holds its recent lows on a closing basis, the outlook could shift decisively bullish and open the door to a sharp recovery into the $70,000 range and potentially higher. BTC Flow From Spot To Futures Markets Explained The Bitcoin Inter-Exchange Flow Pulse (IFP) is approaching a golden cross with the 90-day moving average (90MA) line. A crypto investor and data analyst known as CW pointed out that the IFP indicator is based on BTC flowing from the spot market into the futures market. However, if this trend accelerates further, it could form a golden cross above the 90MA, then signal a bullish rally. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s network activity has been weakening for six straight months, but the decline is not showing up in the headline metric many traders watch first. The clearer signal is not transaction volume, which has held up, but participation breadth. Fewer unique addresses are active on the chain, even as the network continues to process a […]
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Since the October 10, 2025, liquidation event, the crypto market feels noticeably different. Bitcoin’s recent drops are no longer followed by strong relief rallies, which suggests buyers are hesitant to step in aggressively. Adding to the tension, Polymarket is now pricing in a 72% chance of Bitcoin price falling below $55,000 — a clear sign …
Crypto analyst Kamran has raised the possibility of a 443% Dogecoin rally, providing a bullish outlook for the meme coin. This came as he noted that the meme coin has dropped to a historical macro support that has triggered explosive rallies in the past. Dogecoin Eyes 443% Rally As The Meme Coin Reaches Macro Support In an X post, Kamran shared an accompanying chart that showed that Dogecoin could rally 443% from its current level and climb above $0.45. He noted that DOGE is back at the $0.10 macro support, which is a level that has triggered exposive rallies before, making it a high-risk, high-reward zone to watch. Crypto analyst Crypto Patel also recently highlighted this macro support level as a good buy-the-dip opportunity. He urged investors to slowly accumulate if Dogecoin drops to between $0.06 and $0.08, as they prepare for a potential rally to between $1 and $2, which would mark new all-time highs (ATHs) for the foremost meme coin. Related Reading: Dogecoin Divergence Formation At This Level Could Trigger Major Move In the meantime, Dogecoin is at risk of a further decline as the broader crypto market, led by Bitcoin, crashes. Crypto prices have dropped in the last 24 hours on the back of new Trump tariffs, with the U.S. president announcing plans to increase the global tariff rate to 15% from 10%. CoinGlass data shows that most crypto traders are currently more bearish than bullish on Dogecoin, with the long/short ratio at 0.8. Meanwhile, there has been a notable surge in activity in DOGE’s derivatives market. Trading volume has spiked by more than 40%, reaching $1.56 billion, while options trading volume and open interest have surged by 22% and 42%, respectively. DOGE’s Momentum Is Weak At The Moment In an X post, crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade stated that Dogecoin is holding a key trendline, but that momentum is weak. He noted that DOGE has tested the trendline for 6 consecutive daily candles and is still trying to break below it. For now, the meme coin is still holding above the descending trendline, and the structure remains bullish. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Can Still Reach $1, But It May Not Be Soon, Analyst Explains Why Trader Tardigrade further remarked that Dogecoin’s price action looks to be running on fumes and that the price needs genuine buyers for the breakout to be legitimate. He urged market participants to watch for a volume spike and conviction candles. However, until then, the analyst stated that it is “hopeful thinking” as momentum remains weak. His accompanying chart showed that the foremost meme coin could rally to as high as $0.14 if it holds above this trendline. At the time of writing, the Dogecoin price is trading at around $0.09275, down over 4% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The broader crypto market remains under pressure today, and Bitcoin continues hovering near the $66,000 region after a sharp correction phase. Momentum appears fragile, sentiment is defensive, and headlines still revolve around the recent bitcoin price crash. Yet beneath the surface, structural data tells a more measured story. Several on-chain indicators are approaching zones historically …
Bitcoin futures positioning among non-commercial traders is swinging sharply toward net long exposure, a move technical analyst Tom McClellan (editor of The McClellan Market Report) says has arrived “with some urgency” in the latest weekly Commitment of Traders (COT) report and one that has coincided with notable market outcomes in prior, similarly extreme episodes. Sharing a chart of Bitcoin futures (price on a log scale) alongside non-commercial net positioning, McClellan argued that in Bitcoin’s case, large speculators effectively function as the “smart money” cohort, because the market lacks the typical commercial hedger presence seen in traditional commodity futures. “The non-commercial traders of Bitcoin futures are usually the smart money,” McClellan wrote. “This week’s COT Report shows that they are moving net long with some urgency. Look back at what the last two similar excursions led to. But remember, this is ‘a condition, not a signal’.” Why Non-Commercials Matter In Bitcoin Futures McClellan later expanded on how he frames the CFTC’s weekly report, which breaks futures positioning into commercials, non-commercials, and non-reportables. In corn, for example, commercials might be producers or end users; in Bitcoin, he says that category is thin. “In Bitcoin, there are hardly any traders who qualify as Commercial traders,” McClellan wrote. “So in an unusual circumstance, the Non-commercial traders fill the role of being the smart money.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Extreme Fear Streak Extends To 22 Days As Price Struggles That distinction matters because COT is not about absolute long or short interest, every futures contract has a long and a short by definition, but about who is on each side. “Every futures contract is simultaneously one long and one short position, held by different parties. So the number of longs will always equal the number of shorts,” he wrote. “What matters is who holds the positions.” McClellan also cautioned against importing equity-market intuition about short interest into futures positioning. “So a large short position in a stock represents potential energy which could get converted into price movements via short covering,” he wrote. “COT data don’t do that. They just represent expert opinion.” The core dispute in the X thread wasn’t whether COT can be useful, but how to interpret timing. Trader toni (@tonitrades_) agreed the dataset has value but questioned whether futures positioning simply follows spot momentum. “COT data has historically been a solid indicator, no argument there,” toni wrote. “But non-commercial positioning often lags spot market moves by weeks. By the time futures traders pile in, the initial momentum is usually priced in already.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottom Call On Ice: Fear Is Extreme, Whales Aren’t Buying McClellan pushed back on that sequencing. “I think you meant that their positioning PRECEDES price moves sometimes by weeks,” he replied, underscoring his view that positioning extremes can show up ahead of meaningful market moves, though not on a predictable schedule. That’s where the thread landed: with an emphasis on uncertainty. Jim Osman (@EdgeCGroup) summed it up succinctly: “Timing still uncertain.” McClellan agreed. “Exactly, hence my admonition.” In his longer explanation, McClellan reiterated that most weeks the COT report has no actionable message, but that extremes can be informative with a crucial caveat. “A lot of the time there is no useful message in the COT data for each futures contract,” he wrote. “But when an extreme develops like now in Bitcoin, then we can get useful information. But as with any overbought or oversold reading on any indicator, COT data only reflect a ‘condition’ not a signal. The data will not tell you when that condition is going to matter, only that it should matter, sometime.” At press time, BTC traded at $65,663. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The crypto market is down today. The Bitcoin price marked an intraday low of around $64,290 from its highs at $67,684, a plunge of over 4.6%. On the other hand, Ethereum also underwent a similar plunge from $1,957 to $1,848 after holding the support at $1,914 for nearly a week. The market dropped by 4.31% …
The crypto market crash intensified today as global markets reacted sharply to fresh macro uncertainty. Bitcoin slipped below $66,000, Ethereum extended its decline below $1,900, and XRP rotated lower as traders reduced leveraged exposure. So why is the crypto market crash unfolding today, and what exactly triggered this sudden wave of selling across BTC, ETH, …
Global cryptocurrency markets fell sharply on Monday, extending a multi-month downturn that traders say is being driven less by crypto-specific news and more by mounting macroeconomic pressure. The total digital asset market capitalization dropped roughly 4.4% in 24 hours to about $2.23 trillion, according to market data. The selloff was led by losses in Bitcoin, …
HB 2080 seeks to create a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve Fund and let the state treasurer receive, invest and hold bitcoin.
Nearly $360 million in crypto long positions were liquidated in an hour, according to Coinglass' heatmap based on available data.
Bitcoin price failed to stay above $68,000 and dipped sharply. BTC is now consolidating losses and might struggle to recover above $66,000. Bitcoin started a fresh decline and traded below the $66,500 support. The price is trading below $66,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There was a break below a bullish trend line with support at $68,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $64,500 and $64,200 levels. Bitcoin Price Dives Over 5% Bitcoin price failed to remain stable above the $67,200 zone. BTC started a fresh decline and traded below the $66,500 support zone. There was a push below $66,000. The price even spiked below $65,000. There was also a break below a bullish trend line with support at $68,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. A low was formed at $64,203, and the price is now correcting some losses. There was a move above $64,500, but the price is still well below the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,653 swing high to the $64,203 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $66,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $64,200, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $65,250 level. The first key resistance is near the $66,400 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $68,653 swing high to the $64,203 low. A close above the $66,400 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $67,000 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $67,600 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $68,000 and $68,500. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $66,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $64,400 level. The first major support is near the $64,200 level. The next support is now near the $63,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $62,850 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $62,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $64,500, followed by $64,200. Major Resistance Levels – $66,000 and $66,500.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs gave the market a clean, daily scoreboard: a green print meant fresh cash crossing the boundary from traditional brokerage accounts into Bitcoin exposure, and a red print meant the opposite. For much of the first year of spot ETFs in the US, that scoreboard tracked sentiment and set the market’s tempo. Traders […]
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XRP on-chain pain has drawn fresh attention this week. Realized losses surged to nearly $2 billion over a one-week span. That kind of move grabs traders’ eyes because it often marks a clearing out of weaker holders. Related Reading: XRP Tipped As Central Bank Bridge Asset — Bigger Than Bitcoin? Santiment Shows Heavy Realized Losses According to Santiment, the spike is the biggest since 2022. Realized losses happen when people sell for less than what they paid. It is a measure of capitulation. In past cycles, similar spikes happened near major lows and were followed by strong rallies. ???? BREAKING: XRP has seen its largest on-chain realized loss spike since 2022. When the previous weekly milestone of -1.93B in realized losses occurred 39 months ago, $XRP proceeded to jump +114% over the next 8 months. ???? Significant realized losses happen when a large number… pic.twitter.com/gPUU8fYfiY — Santiment (@santimentfeed) February 21, 2026 One historical episode that traders point to saw a big loss week before a 114% climb over roughly eight months. Still, that outcome came from a specific set of market conditions that are not guaranteed to reappear. When Many Small Holders Leave The recent spike in realized losses has drawn attention from market participants. When investors sell at a loss, the metric rises, reflecting the scale of coins changing hands below their purchase price. Analysts often monitor this data to assess shifts in supply and demand. Realized profit and loss figures are commonly used to track market behavior during periods of sharp price movement. While the data highlights the level of losses being locked in, price direction typically depends on broader trading activity, liquidity conditions, and overall market trends. Price Moves And Market Tone XRP traded near $1.45 at the time of these reports, up about 1.50% over 24 hours but down roughly 24% for the month. The token moved mostly in step with Bitcoin during a broader market bounce. Short-term strength like that can be a start. It can also be a brief reprieve inside a longer correction. Traders watching the charts want to see more volume and clear levels taken before calling a trend change. My #XRP price targets for the next three months: March $13 April $27 May $70 — CryptoBull (@CryptoBull2020) February 21, 2026 Why Some Forecasts Stretch Reality Analyst targets running into double and triple digits have circulated online. CryptoBull’s calls for $13, $27, and $70 in a matter of months are extreme and would require dramatic new capital flows. Market cap math shows those moves need far larger demand than casual optimism provides. Other analysts used prior cycle lows to estimate a possible macro floor between $0.75 and $0.85 by applying a roughly 2.8x multiple. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s 2-Year Pattern Revealed: 12 Green Months Out Of 24 A Good Signal Taken together, the data has revived discussion around a rare on-chain signal that in the past came before a 114% advance. Santiment’s latest figures show realized losses reaching levels not seen since 2022, placing the metric back in focus for traders tracking cycle behavior. Whether history repeats will depend on incoming demand, broader crypto sentiment, and sustained buying pressure in the weeks ahead. For now, the signal has flashed again, and the market is watching to see what follows. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
The crypto market has been showing signs of recovery, with the Bitcoin price trying to reclaim the psychological $70,000 over the past few days. Interestingly, the latest on-chain data suggests that the crypto market might just have the required liquidity to kickstart a resurgence. Stablecoin Inflows Surge During Key Support Retest In a recent QuickTake post on the CryptoQuant platform, market analyst CryptoOnchain revealed a dramatic increase in TRC-20 USDT balances on Binance, the largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. Quoting data from CryptoQuant’s data, the on-chain analyst revealed that USDT reserves climbed from approximately $385 million on December 24 to about $5.2 billion as of February 21. What’s more interesting is, this roughly $4.8 billion spike in the stablecoin reserve on Binance occurred all under a month. Related Reading: Bitcoin Options Update: Market Panic Fades But Traders Remain Defensive – Details The crypto pundit highlighted that this significant rise in the TRC-20 UDST reserves on Binance actually coincides with the Bitcoin and Ethereum price approaching key support levels. This is typically a sign that demand is rising and positioning activity is ongoing, both of which often lead to the absorption of selling pressure. Typically, a significant increase in stablecoin accumulation on exchanges — especially during periods of price weakness — signals that liquidity is being rotated, and not completely exiting the market. According to CryptoOnchain, this means that more capital is being positioned for potential reentry into the Bitcoin or Ethereum market (among other assets). TRC-20 Usage Points To Increasing Retail Participation The on-chain analyst further highlighted that the adoption of TRC-20 USDT is often characteristic of a certain investor class, known as the retail participants. It is also widely known that large institutions — which do not typically chase cost-efficient transactions — often use the ERC20 network. Hence, CryptoOnchain concluded that “the increase in TRC-20 reserves may indicate stronger retail engagement during the correction.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Trades Below ETF Cost-Basis As MVRV Signals Mounting Pressure While stablecoin reserves indicate that market participants may be preparing for a bullish reversal of the Bitcoin price, it is worth noting that an immediate rebound is not guaranteed. This is because elevated reserves only reflect the presence of inert demand (known as dry powder), rather than real demand. Nonetheless, if the present market conditions should see stability in the near-term, this “dry powder” that waits on the sidelines could quickly become fuel to drive prices to the upside. Moreover, the Bitcoin apparent demand metric recently flipped positive, suggesting that a reversal might be imminent. As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at around $67,971, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is trading like a rates product now because real yields are the new “gravity” Earlier this month, we saw the macro picture shift in a very real and tangible way. The record of last year's job level changed significantly, and markets treated that update as fresh information to trade on. Two days later, inflation […]
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Over the past two weeks, the Bitcoin market saw an overwhelming sellers’ dominance, with no significant input from the bulls influencing the price. As the flagship cryptocurrency slipped into a downturn, investors increasingly fled the market out of fear, further pushing prices downwards. However, as the Bitcoin price seems to have found stability, an interesting on-chain revelation has also surfaced. If this change proves sustainable, it could mean something positive for the world’s leading cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Trades Below ETF Cost-Basis As MVRV Signals Mounting Pressure Accelerating OTC Outflows, Sign Of Possible Reversal? In their latest post on the CryptoQuant platform, CoinNiel shares an exciting hypothesis for the Bitcoin price, based on data from the Bitcoin: Total OTC Desk Balance. The analyst points out that the Bitcoin price might be at a point where a reversal is imminent. For context, the Bitcoin: Total OTC Desk Balance metric measures the total amount of Bitcoin currently being held in wallets associated with over-the-counter (OTC) trading desks. When the balance is rising, it often implies that more BTC is being moved to these OTC desks. This is also a telltale sign of increasing sell appetite among Bitcoin’s large holders. On the contrary, falling values on this metric typically indicate that Bitcoin is being withdrawn from OTC desks. By extension, it could imply that institutional demand is growing, or that large holders are no longer positioning for sales. According to the chart shared below, the Total OTC Desk Balance has taken on a sharp downtrend, meaning that there has been a significant amount of BTC sent out of the OTC market. Notably, this switch in investor behavior is happening around the same time as when Bitcoin regained its $68,000 footing. As a result, the BTC market sentiment appears to be shifting from pessimistic to slightly optimistic: instead of accumulating BTC for sale, OTC balances are instead contracting. This could be caused by increased buying from large holders or due to reduced selling appetite among Bitcoin’s market participants. In the scenario where there is increased institutional accumulation of Bitcoin, it could be a sign that the Bitcoin price would soon make a big upside move. On the other hand, reduced selling activity is also good for the Bitcoin price, as it translates as reduced selling pressure, allowing for the short-term recovery of the flagship cryptocurrency’s price. CoinNiel, therefore, states as a caveat that the true drivers behind this dynamic remain to be confirmed. As a result, investors and other market participants should be alert when engaging with the Bitcoin market. Related Reading: Saylor Makes Bold $1M Bitcoin Call — “It’s Zero Or A Million” Bitcoin Price At A Glance At press time, Bitcoin holds a value of $67,953, reflecting a 24-hour devaluation of 0.17% per CoinMarketCap data. Since the past seven days, the flagship cryptocurrency has so far lost about 2.81% of its value. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
A modest claim. A bold number. Both are on the table for Bitcoin this week as a debate over how to read short-term streaks in price gains grows louder. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Bleeds $1 Trillion, Saylor Signals Strongest Crypto Conviction Yet Crypto analyst Timothy Peterson has pointed out that half of the last 24 months showed positive returns. Based on reports, he then gave a nearly 90% chance that Bitcoin would be higher in 10 months. That leap from a simple count to a firm probability is the headline grabber. It should be met with careful questions about how the odds were calculated and what assumptions were built into the model. Counting Positive Months Peterson based his view on a review of monthly performance data. Figures compiled by CoinGlass show that Bitcoin closed six months of 2025 in positive territory, while the remaining six finished lower. According to the data, 50% of the past 24 months ended with gains. Peterson said he tracks this rolling two-year window to spot potential turning points in price trends. 50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now. The average return is exp(60%)-1 = 82% => $122,000. Data goes back to 2011. https://t.co/k4IjTisuTH pic.twitter.com/ZxfTyequjt — Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) February 21, 2026 Market Odds And Betting An exchange of bets shows a very different view. Polymarket currently prices December as only a 17% shot at being the best month of 2026, with November a hair higher. Those numbers answer a different question from Peterson’s: they reflect market bets on which month will outperform others, not whether the price will simply be higher at a future date. Betting markets can be blunt tools, but they do pack the collective view of many traders into a single number. Bitcoin Price Action Price has not been calm. Bitcoin traded in a roughly $67,000–$68,000 band this week as geopolitical tension in the Middle East tightened. Safe-haven assets like gold and oil jumped on news flows, and Bitcoin felt the squeeze as some buyers stepped back. At the same time, live tickers showed the token about 20% below its level at the start of the year, a reminder that headline percentages hide wide intraday swings. Analysts Are Split Voices from the trading desk are divided. Michael van de Poppe suggested near-term green candles could be coming, urging traders to watch for a lift. On the other hand, Peter Brandt has argued a deeper low may not arrive until late 2026. Both views rest on different sets of signals — one on momentum and chart structure, the other on longer cycle patterns and risk of macro shocks. Sentiment Still Down Meanwhile, flow data from spot ETF purchases, derivatives positioning, and on-chain liquidity figures would add weight to any forecast. Related Reading: XRP Tipped As Central Bank Bridge Asset — Bigger Than Bitcoin? Peterson’s forecast comes as crypto market sentiment continues to decline, with reports noting that discussion and activity around Bitcoin predictions have slowed. Traders appear cautious, weighing past trends against current uncertainty in the market. Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin sometimes sells off hard on days with no crypto headlines. A recurring driver sits outside crypto: a yen-funded carry unwind that forces cross-asset deleveraging, then transmits into BTC through thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and fast position reduction in derivatives. Here's the core mechanism in one line: if USD/JPY moves fast enough to trigger margin […]
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Bitcoin is once again testing an important resistance zone, and traders are watching closely to see what happens next. On the daily chart, Bitcoin recently faced rejection near the $68,300 to $69,800 resistance area. This is not the first time price has struggled in this zone. Sellers have stepped in here before, and we are …
Market analyst Michaël van de Poppe has noted an important on-chain development that implies a brewing market rebound. This market insight comes as Bitcoin continues to consolidate below $70,000, reporting a 2.38% loss in the past week. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whale Profit-Taking Sees 7th Surge Since 2024 — What To Expect Bitcoin Short-Term Sharpe Ratio Indicates Bear Market End In an X post on February 21, van de Poppe shares a bullish view on the Bitcoin market, referencing historical data of the Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio – an on-chain metric that measures how much excess return Bitcoin generates per unit of volatility. The Sharpe Ratio is cyclical. It’s highly positive during bull markets but turns negative during extended drawdowns. According to data shared by de Poppe, the Bitcoin Sharpe Ratio has dropped to -38.38 in the short term, which is historically recognized as a low risk accumulation zone. De Poppe explains that the Sharpe Ratio has touched similar levels in the past thrice, in early 2015, early 2019, and late 2022. Each time, this dip has preceded a major price rally. This is because a crash to these extremely low levels on the short-term chart suggests Bitcoin is underperforming in terms of risk-to-reward ratio, presenting the ideal point for a market entry. Over the past five months, Bitcoin has experienced a steep bear market, resulting in a total decline of 45.86% compared to its all-time high in October. In February alone, BTC prices have fallen by over 23% as prices dipped as low as $60,000 at the beginning of the month. De Poppe’s analysis shows that this recent crash has also negatively altered the BTC to Gold ratio, creating a potentially market opportunity due to the imbalance between both assets. Going by the historical price reaction to such conditions, the market expert explains that the Sharpe Ratio has highlighted this opportunity, which he described as super bullish. Related Reading: XRP Tipped As Central Bank Bridge Asset — Bigger Than Bitcoin? Bitcoin Market Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $68,299, representing a 0.72% gain in the past day. However, the daily trading volume is down by 50.04% and is valued at $19.15 billion. Notably, market analyst KillaXBT expects Bitcoin to retrace to around $67,800 on Monday in an effort to fill the CME gap created over the weekend. The premier cryptocurrency has shown a solid record on this front, with 96% of the CME gaps observed since 2022 getting filled within a maximum of two weeks. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin just got ~15% harder to mine as hashrate falls—pushing miner revenue back into the $30 stress zone Bitcoin’s mining economy has tightened again, but its undertones could pave the way for a price recovery in the top crypto. Over the past weeks, the network difficulty jumped, while the hashrate has shown signs of softening. […]
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At the beginning of February, the price of Bitcoin tumbled to a new low not seen since US President Donald Trump got elected in November 2024. This downside volatility is believed to have been precipitated by the overleveraging in the BTC market at the time. According to the latest on-chain data, the Bitcoin derivatives market has witnessed a massive flush-out over the past week. BTC Market Now At Reduced Risk Of Liquidation Cascades In a fresh Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, trader CryptoOnchain revealed a dramatic flush-out in the Bitcoin derivatives market on Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange by trading volume. The relevant indicator here is the Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR), which has seen a significant decline in recent weeks. Related Reading: Why Bitcoin Could Be Headed For Another Drop: Research Firm Cites Three Key Risks The Estimated Leverage Ratio is an on-chain metric that measures the ratio of open interest and the reserve of an exchange (Binance, in this case). This indicator tracks the average amount of leverage used by traders in a particular market or exchange. A high ELR value typically implies elevated market risk, signaling that small price movements could potentially lead to significant liquidations and further price movements. As reported by NewsBTC in late January, the ELR was at an extremely high level of around 0.1980, indicating an overheated and highly speculative market. Following the crash of the Bitcoin price, the on-chain metric has also cooled off, falling to around 0.1414. According to CryptoOnchain, this 28% decline in the Estimated Leverage Ratio highlights a shiftbin market dynamics. The market quant said that the drop in ELR suggests that a severe deleveraging event has occurred, with the accompanying price decline causing the closure of several overleveraged long positions. CryptoOnchain added: While the immediate price action was painful, wiping out excess leverage is fundamentally healthy. It removes the “derivatives bubble” and leaves the market structure much lighter and less susceptible to extreme, sudden volatility. The crypto analyst concluded that the risk of further liquidation cascades is reduced, now that the Estimated Leverage Ratio has fallen to normal levels. However, the Bitcoin market needs organic buying pressure and genuine demand from the spot market to rebuild a bullish structure and resume a sustainable upward trend. Bitcoin Price Overview As of this writing, the price of BTC sits around $67,950, reflecting an almost 2% jump in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the premier cryptocurrency is still down by more than 1% on the weekly timeframe. Related Reading: Bitcoin Big-Money Exits: Large-Holder Supply Hits Lowest Since May 2025 Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
CryptoQuant said the exchange whale ratio has risen to 0.64, the highest level since 2015, suggesting whales are leading selling activity.
As it stands, the premier cryptocurrency maintains its broader bearish structure, with its price struggling to overcome the $68,000 resistance over the past few days. However, an interesting on-chain development suggests that the Bitcoin price could likely see a relief soon, but only after a certain condition has been met. Realized Profits Show Warning Pattern That Precedes Defined Moves In a recent Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, on-chain analyst MorenoDV revealed that Bitcoin whales have realized more than $208 million in profits. As shown by the Realized Profit By Whales metric, this event — where over $200 million is taken as profit by members of this cohort — marks the seventh such occurrence over the past two years. Related Reading: XRP’s Brutal Supply Compression Signals A Repeat Of The 2024 Expansion Notably, these spikes in profits-taken have not occurred without any impact on price; instead, they have often been followed by market turbulence, which has also mostly preceded the formation of local bottoms. This suggests that large-scale selling from seasoned holders tends to introduce temporary liquidity imbalances. After the supply created by these whales is absorbed, it often leads to price stabilization. Interestingly, this stability has often preceded bullish reversals in the Bitcoin price. However, there have also been a few instances where such profit-taking among this investor cohort coincided with the establishment of local tops. Nonetheless, MorenoDV explained that this profit-taking behavior among the Bitcoin whales typically signals conviction, due to the behavioral consistency of this investor class. As such, these large investors rarely sell impulsively, but when they do, “it signals conviction about near-term price exhaustion or strategic repositioning.” Hence, if history is anything to go by, the analyst explained that the Bitcoin market stands a high chance of experiencing turbulence in the near-term. However, this also comes with the inference that the Bitcoin price is closer to a local exhaustion point than to the start of a bearish market cycle. If institutional flows, or even mid-sized holders, begin accumulating at current levels, the market could interpret this as a healthy rotation, which could in turn translate into bullish momentum. On the other hand, if demand should remain insufficient or if more market participants sell their holdings, downside pressure could be amplified, thereby pushing prices further south. Bitcoin Price At A Glance At the time of writing, the price of BTC stands at around $67,960, reflecting no significant movement in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: The Great Bitcoin Handover: $8.2 Billion BTC Swamps Binance As Retail Momentum Fades Featured image by Dall.E, chart from TradingView