Led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, the company also added to its bitcoin holdings last week, bringing its total stack to 650,000 BTC.
Strategy's holdings account for more than 3% of the total 21 million bitcoin supply — worth around $56 billion.
Analysts pointed to Coinbase's expanding product lines, token launches, and new consumer apps as examples of "transformative" shifts.
Phong Le says Strategy has no near-term debt maturity risk and plans to continue using convertibles and equity to grow its bitcoin position over time.
Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) spent 2025 building the largest corporate Bitcoin reserve the public markets have ever financed, but the scale of that ambition ended up colliding with the logic of its own stock. What began as an aggressive accumulation strategy, powered by the company’s appetite for leverage and a willingness to dilute existing shareholders, […]
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Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, the largest public holder of Bitcoin (BTC), finds itself at the center of a stormy controversy involving JPMorgan as Bitcoin prices continue to struggle. With signs of a potential bear market emerging, fresh rumors suggest that one of the world’s largest banks allegedly holds a significant short position on Strategy’s stock (MSTR), which has plunged 69% from its record high of $543 per share last year. Strategy Faces Potential MSCI Exclusion The turmoil escalated last week when JPMorgan issued a warning that Strategy might soon be removed from major equity indices, specifically the MSCI USA Index. JPMorgan’s analysts noted that the issues facing Strategy extend beyond the recent downturn in cryptocurrency prices, which have seen Bitcoin fall more than 30% from its all-time highs. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading around $86,000, while the broader crypto market has experienced a staggering $1 trillion decline in total market capitalization over the past month. Related Reading: Why XRP Price Crash Below $2 Is Not A Problem – $20 Is Still The Target JPMorgan’s analysts indicated that MSCI is considering whether companies with over 50% of their total assets in digital currencies should qualify for inclusion in traditional equity indices. Given that Strategy’s balance sheet is heavily weighted with Bitcoin, it is at significant risk of exclusion. The analysts stated that “MicroStrategy [is] at risk of exclusion from major equity indices as the January 15th MSCI decision approaches.” They speculated that removal from the MSCI could trigger approximately $2.8 billion in outflows, and if other index providers follow MSCI’s lead, the total could reach as high as $8.8 billion. The situation is complicated by market dynamics, particularly the timing of JPMorgan’s bearish note, which coincided with Bitcoin’s weakness and MSTR’s decline, all while liquidity was thin and overall sentiment fragile. JPMorgan Faces Account Closures Surge According to analysts at the Bull Theory, JPMorgan has been noted for timing its market reports—bearing down when prices are already weak and striking a more bullish tone near market peaks. The analysts have highlighted that share lending for MSTR has reportedly increased, allowing brokers to lend shares to short sellers, which can exacerbate downward pressure on the stock price. Additionally, there are escalating reports of widespread account closures at JPMorgan, with thousands claiming to have exited due to perceived manipulation of both MSTR and Bitcoin. Related Reading: A Quiet Move In Bitcoin Options Is Starting To Raise Big Questions Amid these developments, the fear of a potential short squeeze is growing. The analysts believe that if Strategy’s stock were to rally around 40% to 50%, it could trigger a short squeeze in the bank’s position and spell major financial troubles. In response, Michael Saylor, the CEO of Strategy, has sought to clarify the company’s identity, emphasizing that it is not just a passive Bitcoin holder. He pointed out that Strategy operates as a software business with an active financial strategy, countering the narrative circulating around MSCI’s concerns. As the situation unfolds, several key points emerge. The October 10th crash appeared to align with the MSCI announcement, coinciding with an already fragile market state. JP Morgan’s strategic timing of its bearish insights has amplified existing fears, creating further uncertainty as MSCI’s final decision looms. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
TD Cowen analysts still expect Strategy (MSTR) to outperform if bitcoin recovers and maintain their $535 price target.
For a while, owning Bitcoin was professionally awkward. Big asset managers couldn’t touch it, compliance teams didn’t know what to do with it, and internal mandates typically banned the direct custody of anything that looked like a bearer instrument. But equities? Equities were fine. That’s how MicroStrategy, a Virginia-based enterprise software firm, became the most […]
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Strategy’s 650,000 BTC holdings make it a ‘pressure valve’ for the broader market, said the Bitmine Immersion chairman.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Strategy, the Bitcoin treasury pioneer (ticker MSTR) is currently included in major indices such as the Nasdaq-100, MSCI USA, and MSCI World.
CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju pushed back on a renewed wave of forced Bitcoin liquidation and bankruptcy chatter around Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, MSTR), arguing that the bearish thesis misreads the company’s capital structure and shareholder incentives. In a Nov. 20, 2025 post on X, Ju wrote, “MSTR only goes bankrupt if an asteroid hits Earth,” adding that critics should “bring a single piece of evidence” before claiming Michael Saylor would be liquidated. The comments came as Bitcoin and high-beta crypto proxies retraced into late November, reviving legacy narratives that Strategy’s debt stack could compel BTC sales. Why Strategy Will Never Sell Bitcoin Ju’s central claim is that Strategy is not structurally set up like a margin trader. Addressing the most common fear—that convertible notes “missing” their conversion price forces liquidation—he stated: “Convertible debt not reaching the conversion price is not liquidation. It simply means the notes get repaid in cash […] Failing to convert is not a bankruptcy trigger. It is just normal debt maturity.” Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Fidelity Research Lead Weighs The Odds In his view, the repayment pathways are conventional corporate finance tools: refinancing, rolling into new notes, secured borrowing, or operating cash flow. That framing aligns with how convertibles function in practice; if equity is below strike at maturity, the embedded option expires and the instrument reverts to straight debt rather than a forced-sale event. He also grounded his argument in governance and identity. “Saylor would never sell Bitcoin unless shareholders want it,” Ju wrote, warning that “selling even a single BTC would destroy MSTR’s identity as a Bitcoin treasury company and trigger a death spiral for both Bitcoin and MSTR.” Strategy has repeatedly defined itself as a BTC-treasury vehicle, and its shareholder base largely bought into that mandate, making voluntary divestment politically and strategically improbable absent a radical shift in investor preference. Balance-sheet data underpins Ju’s confidence. Strategy reported 640,808 BTC as of Oct. 30, 2025, acquired for about $47.44 billion; subsequent filings cited major November additions taking holdings to roughly 649,870 BTC. Even after accounting for the growing convertible and preferred layers, the BTC treasury remains the dominant asset, meaning solvency stress would require an extreme, prolonged Bitcoin collapse rather than a cyclical drawdown. Related Reading: Why Bitwise Thinks Bitcoin Still Hits $200,000 In 2026 Ju did not claim the equity is risk-free. “This does not mean MSTR’s stock price will always stay high,” he wrote, but called the idea that Strategy would sell BTC to support the stock or face imminent bankruptcy “completely absurd.” He added that even at a price of $10,000 per coin, Strategy would face “a debt restructuring, nothing more.” On preferred shares, he acknowledged dividend obligations, noting payments have not been missed and can be covered via new share issuance—dilutive, but not a liquidation vector. Posting BTC as collateral, he said, would be a last resort because that would introduce real margin risk. In short, Ju’s rebuttal draws a hard line between volatility and insolvency: Strategy may trade like leveraged Bitcoin, but its liabilities do not mechanically force BTC sales. The “Saylor liquidation” narrative, he argues, is a Twitter myth unless the world ends—by asteroid. At press time, BTC traded at $82,050. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has found itself significantly exposed to the ongoing downturn in the cryptocurrency market, which has seen more than $1 trillion in total market capitalization wiped out over the past month. As the largest public holder of Bitcoin, with over 650,000 coins, the company is now facing the real threat of being removed from major benchmark indices, which have been crucial for its visibility in mainstream portfolios. Analysts Predict Major Impact On Strategy According to a recent Bloomberg report, analysts at JPMorgan Chase have issued a warning that Saylor’s firm may lose its standing in key indices such as MSCI USA and the Nasdaq 100. Related Reading: CEO Cuts Cardano Founder’s Bitcoin Price Forecast, Warns Bear Market Just Starting The analysts assert that this could result in passive outflows estimated between $2.8 billion and $8.8 billion if MSCI proceeds with a decision expected by January 15. Passive funds connected to the company currently account for nearly $9 billion in market exposure, making any index exclusion a substantial blow. Strategy’s business model has relied on a cyclical strategy of selling stock to buy Bitcoin, capitalizing on price rallies, and repeating this process. At its zenith, Saylor’s company’s market capitalization far exceeded the value of its Bitcoin holdings. However, that premium has evaporated, and the company’s valuation now aligns closely with its crypto reserves—a stark indication that investor confidence is fading rapidly. “While active managers are not bound to adhere to index changes, exclusion from major indices would undoubtedly be viewed negatively by market participants,” noted JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. Such a shift could affect liquidity, increase funding costs, and diminish overall investor appeal. MSCI Contemplates New Index Inclusion Rules In its ongoing consultations with stakeholders, MSCI indicated that some market players believe digital asset treasury firms (DATs) may function more like investment funds, which are ineligible for index inclusion. In accordance with these perspectives, MSCI has proposed excluding companies whose holdings in digital assets constitute 50% or more of their total assets from its global investment market indexes. Related Reading: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Bleeds Over $500 Million In Its Biggest One-Day Outflow Since peaking last November, Saylor’s firm has seen its shares (MSTR) decline by over 60%, causing a collapse in the premium that once attracted momentum and crypto-focused investors. Despite this slump, Saylor’s company remains up over 1,300% since he first began purchasing Bitcoin in August 2020, outperforming major equity indices throughout this period. The selloff has extended its reach into the company’s newer funding structures, as well. The prices of its perpetual preferred shares—an essential part of Saylor’s recent strategies—have seen sharp declines. Additionally, yields on securities issued in March have risen to 11.5%, up from a previous 10.5%. A recent euro-denominated preferred stock offering has already dropped below its discounted offering price in under two weeks. Michael Youngworth, head of global convertible bond strategy at Bank of America Global Research, remarked, “That premium has collapsed in recent weeks,” adding that the present situation makes capital raising increasingly challenging. Feature image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
A recent report discussed how Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies like BitMine and Strategy are sitting on billions of dollars of unrealized profits as Ethereum (ETH) and Bitcoin (BTC) lose crucial support levels. Related Reading: This Altcoin Soars 20% In One Day Following Major Saudi Arabia Partnership DATs To Face ‘Increasing Scrutiny’ On Thursday, crypto insights company 10x Research reported that the largest Ethereum Treasury company, BitMine Immersion Technologies, has a multi-billion-dollar paper loss after the ongoing market correction, which has sent ETH to multi-month lows. “Bitmine is now down more than $1,000 per ETH, implying about $3.7 billion in unrealized losses before even accounting for the hefty NAV [net asset value] premium public-market investors paid on top,” the report highlighted. 10x Research believes that treasury companies will struggle to attract new retail investors amid the current market environment, where existing shareholders are sitting on billions of dollars in losses. When NAV rises, “old” shareholders benefit; when it falls, the damage compounds, a dynamic DAT investors often underestimate. When the premium inevitably shrinks to zero, as it is doing now, investors find themselves trapped in the structure, unable to get out without significant damage, a true Hotel California scenario. Unlike Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs), Digital Asset Treasuries “layer on complex, opaque, and often hedge-fund-like fee structures that can quietly erode returns,” the report added, noting that many investors are unaware that DATs embedded costs “far exceed” the management fee charged by asset managers like BlackRock on its Bitcoin (BTC) and ETH ETFs. Moreover, 10x Research argued that with the potential introduction of a staked Ethereum ETF by BlackRock, “the economics of DATs are likely to face increasing scrutiny” as retail investors reallocate to a low-cost source of yield. BitMine Remains Confident On Ethereum Despite DAT challenges and ETH’s price action, BitMine has continued to bet on the King of Altcoins. According to Lookonchain data, a new wallet suspected to be linked to the Ethereum-focused treasury company purchased 21,054 ETH, worth around $66.57 million at the time, on Tuesday night. In its November Chairman’s Message, Thomas ‘Tom’ Lee, noted that the crypto market prices have not recovered from the October 10 liquidation event, and “the lingering weakness has the hallmarks of a market maker (or two) suffering from a crippled balance sheet.” BitMine does not believe crypto prices have peaked for this cycle, he added, suggesting that “a crypto cycle top is likely 12-36 months away.” On the contrary, Lee told CNBC News on Monday that the market is “pretty close” to bottoming this week. Crypto suffered from that liquidation event on October 10th, but because the fundamental story is intact and crypto discounts the future, that’s why it’s volatile, but it still looks pretty attractive here. Related Reading: Solana Reclaims $140 As Second Wave Of SOL ETFs Debut – Is A Rebound Coming? Notably, ETH has lost the $3,000 support for the first time since July, retesting the $2,800 area on Thursday morning. However, Lee has affirmed that “Ethereum is undervalued because number one, the story is gaining relative to Bitcoin this year. But two, we’re getting this sort of intrinsic floor because of the value that the assets locked onto the Ethereum blockchain.” As of this writing, Ethereum is trading at $2,840, a 29% decline in the monthly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Strategy could see about $2.8B in outflows if MSCI removes it from its indices, and another $8.8B if other index providers follow.
The bank said billions in passive flows could unwind if MSCI removes Strategy from major equity benchmarks, heightening pressure on the bitcoin-levered firm.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
TD Cowen analysts said potential catalysts like possible S&P 500 inclusion and clearer U.S. bitcoin rules could help steady investor demand.
Hamstrung from common share sales due to the cratering in their stock price, Michael Saylor and team turned to preferred share issuance.
Strategy's holdings account for more than 3% of the total 21 million bitcoin supply — worth around $62 billion.
Institutional ownership, ETF absorption, and Strategy's capital access point to a short consolidation instead of a deep drawdown, Bernstein argues.
Michael Saylor is explicitly telling markets that Strategy (MSTR) has been built to withstand a Bitcoin crash that would wipe out almost every other leveraged player in the ecosystem. In an interview with Grant Cardone streamed live on November 14 , the Strategy executive chairman drew a clear theoretical stress line for the company’s balance sheet and stated that even a catastrophic move lower in BTC would not force him to liquidate the core position. Strategy Can Eat A 90% Bitcoin Collapse Asked how far Bitcoin would have to fall before MicroStrategy faces real danger, Saylor answered with balance-sheet math rather than rhetoric. He pointed to roughly eight billion dollars of debt and tens of billions in equity value tied to Bitcoin, and then set the threshold: Bitcoin, he said, “would have to fall 90% from here for us to be sort of collateralized, to be one-on-one.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Indicator Sounds Buy Alarm For The First Time Since March — Return To $110K Soon? Even at that point, his first response would not be to sell BTC into a collapsing market. Instead, he described equity holders as the primary buffer. “We probably would dilute the equity, and so it would be bad for the equity,” he told Cardone, before stating the hierarchy even more bluntly: “The equity is going to be a loser.” By contrast, he framed liquidation as essentially off the table in any realistic bear market scenario. When Cardone pressed him on whether Strategy could be forced to unwind its Bitcoin position, Saylor answered flatly: “We’re not going to liquidate.” The bond side only enters the conversation in an almost total-loss scenario. “If Bitcoin fell to zero tomorrow forever, then the bonds would default,” Saylor said. He then compressed the entire risk profile into a single line: “If you think Bitcoin is going to go to $10,000, I think we’re good. If you think Bitcoin’s going to a dollar tomorrow forever, then yeah, the bonds would default.” Related Reading: How Low Can Bitcoin Price Go? JPMorgan Points To A Key Threshold That framing makes the structure very clear. Equity is a highly levered, high-beta claim on Bitcoin that can be diluted if necessary. Bondholders and holders of MicroStrategy’s various credit-like instruments only face real danger if Bitcoin essentially dies as an asset class. The 4-Year Cycle Is Dead Saylor also used the interview to distance himself from one of the core narratives many Bitcoin traders still live by: the four-year halving cycle. His view is that the mechanical supply cut may have helped shape earlier phases of Bitcoin’s monetization, but it is no longer the dominant driver of price in a market now intertwined with global macro and institutional flows. “I don’t believe in four-year cycles anyway,” Saylor said. “I never believed in the— I think that they might have had some credence in the first 12 years.” He then shifted straight to scale and order of magnitude. After [the last] halving, the reduction in new supply is on the order of a couple hundred BTC a day. In his translation, “225 Bitcoin a day get taken out of the supply after the next halving, that’s twenty million dollars or twenty-two million dollars of buying.” Against a spot and derivatives complex that can see tens or even hundreds of billions of dollars in notional volume in a single session, that number, he argued, is marginal. “Trust me, twenty million dollars of buying… is not even a third-order issue at this point,” he said. What matters now? “The dynamics in the market are much more that Jerome Powell thinks he wants to hold interest rates higher for longer. It’s macroeconomics. It’s political. It’s structural. When IBIT’s derivatives market went from $10 billion to $50 billion, it did that in four weeks. […] It’s the actions of the mega finance actors that are determining the future of Bitcoin right now, Saylor said. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $95,624. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has fallen below a key support level, breaking a bullish pattern.
Dorman says fears that Strategy will be forced to sell bitcoin are misplaced, citing the firm’s balance sheet, governance and cash flow.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Earlier Friday, Arkham data showed Saylor’s Strategy reduced its bitcoin holdings from 484,000 BTC to about 437,000 BTC.
Amid the continued panicky action in crypto, online chatter suggested Strategy was unloading some of its bitcoin stack, a rumor Executive Chairman Michael Saylor shot down Friday morning.
Alongside bitcoin's tumble back to $98,000, MSTR is lower by another 6.6% on Thursday, bringing its year-to-date decline to 30%.
Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy) has earned a reputation for making its weekly Bitcoin acquisitions near the local top in recent weeks. On Nov. 10, CryptoQuant analyst JA Marturn noted that the firm’s most recent acquisition disclosure from Michael Saylor followed the same script. According to an SEC filing, Strategy announced that it had acquired 487 BTC […]
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After deployment of €608.8M in net proceeds, TD Cowen projects that Strategy will use "substantially all" of the funds to acquire bitcoin.