Strive said the proposal could lead to uneven results worldwide because companies report Bitcoin differently under various accounting rules.
Digital-asset treasury plays that once traded at big premiums have fallen back toward net asset value.
Lower adjusted net asset value multiple means Strategy can no longer issue equity at a premium, threatening its long-term plan to accumulate more bitcoin, analyst Brett Knoblauch wrote.
The bank’s volatility-adjusted bitcoin-to-gold model still points to a theoretical price around $170K over the next six to twelve months.
JPMorgan reiterated that its bitcoin-to-gold model still points to a theoretical price of about $170,000 in the next 6–12 months.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, is considering a pivot that would fundamentally alter the risk profile of the world’s largest corporate Bitcoin treasury. For a decade, the company sold Wall Street on a singular thesis: it was a digital vault, offering unencumbered exposure to Bitcoin without the risks of custody or counterparty risk. That stand is changing […]
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CQ’s Julio Moreno told The Block that if the bear market continues, bitcoin could trade between $70,000 and $55,000 next year.
A removal could lead to outflows of up to $8.8 billion if other index providers follow suit because the stock is part of many passive investment products.
Despite a 9% recovery on Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced considerable volatility, with its price plummeting to as low as $84,000 just 24 hours ago. This downturn has had a significant impact on Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) the public company that holds the largest BTC reserves, currently boasting over 650,000 coins. Strategy T-Rex ETFs Plummet Nearly 85% NewsBTC reported that the company’s CEO, Phong Le, suggested the possibility of selling some of their Bitcoin holdings in light of the current market conditions. Alongside this, the company’s leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also faced substantial losses, intensifying worries about Strategy’s financial health. Reuters highlighted that Strategy’s leveraged ETFs, which are designed to magnify returns on the firm’s stock, have been among the largest casualties of this year’s cryptocurrency slump. Related Reading: You Won’t Believe How Much Bitcoin Companies Now Hold, What % Of Supply Do They Control? Two specific ETFs, the T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF and the Defiance Daily Target 2x Long MSTR ETF, have seen dramatic declines, losing nearly 85% of their value this year. Additionally, the T-Rex 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF has dropped by 48% in the same time frame. In this environment, shares of Strategy, MSTR, have fallen more than 40% this year, driven primarily by Bitcoin’s price crash. Investor attention is now focused on Strategy’s “mNAV” (market net asset value) metric, which compares the company’s enterprise value to its Bitcoin holdings. Following Le’s comments, where he mentioned the firm might consider selling cryptocurrencies if the mNAV drops below 1, concerns grew about the firm’s long-term outlook. Current estimates place this ratio around 1.1, according to calculations by Reuters. Analysts Remain Optimistic Mike O’Rourke, the chief market strategist at JonesTrading, noted that Le’s remarks diminish the company’s message of steadfastness in holding Bitcoin, even amid market volatility. The company has also revised its full-year outlook, warning of a potential profit ranging from $6.3 billion to a loss of $5.5 billion, a stark adjustment from its earlier forecast of $24 billion in net profit. This prior estimate, made on October 30, anticipated Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end. Commenting on the shifting strategies within the firm, Vincenzo Vedda, chief investment officer at DWS, remarked, “Great strategy from Strategy, while prices go up. When they go down, well, the strategic options left to the company are limited.” Related Reading: Here’s What To Expect If The XRP Price Holds $2 Since entering the Nasdaq 100 index, Strategy’s shares have dropped more than 70% from their peak in November 2024, more than halving in value over the year. Despite this dismal performance, analyst sentiments remain relatively optimistic; of the 16 brokerages monitoring Strategy, 10 recommend it as a “buy” while four suggest a “strong buy,” with an overall median price target of $485, reflecting a potential 183% increase over the next year based on LSEG data. When writing, the market’s leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, managed to recover the $92,000 line. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitocin treasury companies continue to accumulate a significant amount of BTC despite current market conditions and now control around 5% of the total BTC supply. These companies are led by Michael Saylor’s Strategy and Metaplanet, which have recently raised fresh capital to buy the dip. Bitcoin Treasury Companies Now Hold Over 1 Million In BTC Bitcoin Treasuries data shows that the top 100 public Bitcoin treasury companies currently hold 1,058,929 BTC, while all public companies combined hold 1,061,697. Notably, Strategy is the largest public Bitcoin holder with 650,000 BTC. Michael Saylor’s company yesterday announced another 130 BTC purchase for $11.7 million. Related Reading: Strategy’s Crash Rumors Intensify, CEO Reveals When $46 Billion In Bitcoin Will Be Sold Meanwhile, the second-largest Bitcoin treasury company is BTC miner MARA holdings, which holds 53,250 BTC. Tether-backed Twenty One Capital, Metaplanet, and Bitcoin Standard Treasury Company complete the top 5, with 43,514, 30,823, and 30,021 BTC, respectively. Meanwhile, companies like Coinbase, Bullish, and Trump Media are among the top 10 largest BTC treasury companies. It is worth noting that these public companies account for only a part of the Bitcoin treasuries. Further data from Bitcoin Treasuries shows that there is currently 4 million BTC in treasuries as a whole, including the coins held by governments, private companies, exchanges, DeFi platforms, and ETFs. BlackRock is currently the second-largest Bitcoin holder, only behind Satoshi Nakamoto. Strategy is third on the list, while Binance and the U.S. government complete the top 5, with BTC holdings of 628,868 and 323,588, respectively. The 4 million BTC held by these treasury companies as a group accounts for 19% of the total Bitcoin supply. Bitcoin treasury companies such as Strategy and Metaplanet have raised new capital amid the recent crash to buy more BTC. Saylor’s company recently raised $836 million from its STRE offering, which it used to buy 8,178 BTC. Meanwhile, Metaplanet raised $130 million to expand its BTC treasury. More Companies Set To Adopt Bitcoin More Bitcoin treasury companies are set to emerge as $10 trillion asset manager, Vanguard, will start offering BTC ETFs from today. Notably, some companies gain BTC exposure through these ETFs rather than buying Bitcoin directly. On-chain analytics platform Arkham Intelligence revealed that the largest U.S. bank, JPMorgan, holds $300 million worth of BlackRock’s BTC ETF. Related Reading: Analyst Who Predicted Bitcoin Price Action With Chinese Astrology Shares When Prices Will Surge Meanwhile, it is worth mentioning that Bitcoin treasuries such as Strategy are coming under immense pressure amid the current market downtrend. Strategy’s CEO, Phong Le, admitted that they might have to sell Bitcoin as a last resort to fund dividend payments if their mNAV drops below 1x and they can no longer raise capital. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $87,000, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Strategy Inc., the firm once best known as MicroStrategy, said Monday it has raised cash and set aside a $1.44 billion US reserve to cover near-term obligations as Bitcoin tumbles. The move came after recent share sales and follows a brief buy of new coins, according to company statements and market reports. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Face A Harsh December: Rising BTC Difficulty, Falling Hashprice Strategy Establishes $1.44B Cash Reserve According to filings and market reports, the reserve was funded by selling Class A common stock under an at-the-market program and is meant to fund dividends on Strategy’s preferred shares and to help pay interest on its debt for at least 12 months, with a target to extend cover to 24 months or more. The company said it did not liquidate its Bitcoin stash to create the reserve. The size of the company’s Bitcoin holdings remains unusually large. Based on reports, Strategy now holds about 650,000 BTC after a small recent purchase of roughly 130 BTC that cost about $11.7 million. That hoard is still worth tens of billions of dollars at current prices, but price swings have put fresh pressure on a business built around holding the asset. Strategy Inc. announced a $1.44 billion USD reserve to cover at least 12 months of preferred dividends and interest payments, funded through its at-the-market stock sales. The company now holds 650,000 BTC and says the reserve will help manage volatility. https://t.co/i4X1J62Qel — Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) December 1, 2025 Bitcoin: Market Reaction And Risks Investors reacted quickly. Strategy’s shares have fallen sharply this year, and analysts say the new cash buffer may calm some fears but won’t erase larger funding and debt timelines that loom over the company. Strategy announces $1.44B USD Reserve and now hodls 650,000 $BTC. pic.twitter.com/FNFivMNQgh — Strategy (@Strategy) December 1, 2025 Reports put convertible debt tied to past financing at about $8 billion, and company metrics show the market-to-Bitcoin ratio (mNAV) sliding closer to levels where management has said it might consider selling coins only as a last resort. Peter Schiff, a well-known Bitcoin critic, took to social media after the announcement and described the reserve as proof the model has failed, calling Michael Saylor a “conman” and saying Saylor is “finished.” Today is the beginning of the end of $MSTR. Saylor was forced to sell stock not to buy Bitcoin, but to buy U.S. dollars merely to fund MSTR’s interest and dividend obligations. The stock is broken. The business model is a fraud, and @Saylor is the biggest con man on Wall Street. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) December 1, 2025 Other market voices urged caution, saying the move changes how investors should value the company — from a pure Bitcoin treasury play to an entity with ongoing cash obligations. According to reports, Strategy also cut its 2025 profit and Bitcoin-linked yield targets after recent price moves, a sign that management is dealing with a less bullish near-term outlook than it expected earlier this year. The reserve is meant to prevent forced sales of Bitcoin to meet fixed payouts, but holding cash has its own costs and raises governance questions among long-time backers. Related Reading: XRP Is About To Hit A Major Turning Point This Week, Analyst Says Schiff’s Issue With Saylor Schiff’s blistering attack — calling Saylor a fraud and declaring him done — adds a sharp political edge to what had been framed as a financial maneuver. His claims amplify worries among some investors about Strategy’s governance and capital plan, even as others dismiss the remarks as partisan rhetoric. Ultimately, whether Schiff’s accusations stick will depend less on social-media barbs than on Strategy’s next moves around debt, disclosure and any future coin sales — actions that will tell investors whether Saylor’s stewardship can weather this storm. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Strategy Inc., the corporate Bitcoin vault formerly known as MicroStrategy, has signaled that the mechanics driving its rapid growth have hit a cyclical wall. On Dec. 1, the Tysons Corner-based firm revealed that it was prioritizing a $1.44 billion cash reserve and providing investors with detailed parameters for potential asset sales. This represents a pragmatic […]
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Trading volume in Strategy shares surged to 42.9 million, the most since last December, as the price fell 3.25%.
Peter Schiff took a victory lap after the company Monday morning announced it had raised $1.44 billion via common stock sales as a reserve to pay preferred dividends for nearly two years.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
The broker said fears over Strategy’s solvency are misplaced and the stock remains the strongest asymmetric bet on bitcoin.
Led by Executive Chairman Michael Saylor, the company also added to its bitcoin holdings last week, bringing its total stack to 650,000 BTC.
Strategy's holdings account for more than 3% of the total 21 million bitcoin supply — worth around $56 billion.
Analysts pointed to Coinbase's expanding product lines, token launches, and new consumer apps as examples of "transformative" shifts.
Phong Le says Strategy has no near-term debt maturity risk and plans to continue using convertibles and equity to grow its bitcoin position over time.
Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) spent 2025 building the largest corporate Bitcoin reserve the public markets have ever financed, but the scale of that ambition ended up colliding with the logic of its own stock. What began as an aggressive accumulation strategy, powered by the company’s appetite for leverage and a willingness to dilute existing shareholders, […]
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Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, the largest public holder of Bitcoin (BTC), finds itself at the center of a stormy controversy involving JPMorgan as Bitcoin prices continue to struggle. With signs of a potential bear market emerging, fresh rumors suggest that one of the world’s largest banks allegedly holds a significant short position on Strategy’s stock (MSTR), which has plunged 69% from its record high of $543 per share last year. Strategy Faces Potential MSCI Exclusion The turmoil escalated last week when JPMorgan issued a warning that Strategy might soon be removed from major equity indices, specifically the MSCI USA Index. JPMorgan’s analysts noted that the issues facing Strategy extend beyond the recent downturn in cryptocurrency prices, which have seen Bitcoin fall more than 30% from its all-time highs. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading around $86,000, while the broader crypto market has experienced a staggering $1 trillion decline in total market capitalization over the past month. Related Reading: Why XRP Price Crash Below $2 Is Not A Problem – $20 Is Still The Target JPMorgan’s analysts indicated that MSCI is considering whether companies with over 50% of their total assets in digital currencies should qualify for inclusion in traditional equity indices. Given that Strategy’s balance sheet is heavily weighted with Bitcoin, it is at significant risk of exclusion. The analysts stated that “MicroStrategy [is] at risk of exclusion from major equity indices as the January 15th MSCI decision approaches.” They speculated that removal from the MSCI could trigger approximately $2.8 billion in outflows, and if other index providers follow MSCI’s lead, the total could reach as high as $8.8 billion. The situation is complicated by market dynamics, particularly the timing of JPMorgan’s bearish note, which coincided with Bitcoin’s weakness and MSTR’s decline, all while liquidity was thin and overall sentiment fragile. JPMorgan Faces Account Closures Surge According to analysts at the Bull Theory, JPMorgan has been noted for timing its market reports—bearing down when prices are already weak and striking a more bullish tone near market peaks. The analysts have highlighted that share lending for MSTR has reportedly increased, allowing brokers to lend shares to short sellers, which can exacerbate downward pressure on the stock price. Additionally, there are escalating reports of widespread account closures at JPMorgan, with thousands claiming to have exited due to perceived manipulation of both MSTR and Bitcoin. Related Reading: A Quiet Move In Bitcoin Options Is Starting To Raise Big Questions Amid these developments, the fear of a potential short squeeze is growing. The analysts believe that if Strategy’s stock were to rally around 40% to 50%, it could trigger a short squeeze in the bank’s position and spell major financial troubles. In response, Michael Saylor, the CEO of Strategy, has sought to clarify the company’s identity, emphasizing that it is not just a passive Bitcoin holder. He pointed out that Strategy operates as a software business with an active financial strategy, countering the narrative circulating around MSCI’s concerns. As the situation unfolds, several key points emerge. The October 10th crash appeared to align with the MSCI announcement, coinciding with an already fragile market state. JP Morgan’s strategic timing of its bearish insights has amplified existing fears, creating further uncertainty as MSCI’s final decision looms. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
TD Cowen analysts still expect Strategy (MSTR) to outperform if bitcoin recovers and maintain their $535 price target.
For a while, owning Bitcoin was professionally awkward. Big asset managers couldn’t touch it, compliance teams didn’t know what to do with it, and internal mandates typically banned the direct custody of anything that looked like a bearer instrument. But equities? Equities were fine. That’s how MicroStrategy, a Virginia-based enterprise software firm, became the most […]
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Strategy’s 650,000 BTC holdings make it a ‘pressure valve’ for the broader market, said the Bitmine Immersion chairman.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Strategy, the Bitcoin treasury pioneer (ticker MSTR) is currently included in major indices such as the Nasdaq-100, MSCI USA, and MSCI World.
CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju pushed back on a renewed wave of forced Bitcoin liquidation and bankruptcy chatter around Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy, MSTR), arguing that the bearish thesis misreads the company’s capital structure and shareholder incentives. In a Nov. 20, 2025 post on X, Ju wrote, “MSTR only goes bankrupt if an asteroid hits Earth,” adding that critics should “bring a single piece of evidence” before claiming Michael Saylor would be liquidated. The comments came as Bitcoin and high-beta crypto proxies retraced into late November, reviving legacy narratives that Strategy’s debt stack could compel BTC sales. Why Strategy Will Never Sell Bitcoin Ju’s central claim is that Strategy is not structurally set up like a margin trader. Addressing the most common fear—that convertible notes “missing” their conversion price forces liquidation—he stated: “Convertible debt not reaching the conversion price is not liquidation. It simply means the notes get repaid in cash […] Failing to convert is not a bankruptcy trigger. It is just normal debt maturity.” Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Fidelity Research Lead Weighs The Odds In his view, the repayment pathways are conventional corporate finance tools: refinancing, rolling into new notes, secured borrowing, or operating cash flow. That framing aligns with how convertibles function in practice; if equity is below strike at maturity, the embedded option expires and the instrument reverts to straight debt rather than a forced-sale event. He also grounded his argument in governance and identity. “Saylor would never sell Bitcoin unless shareholders want it,” Ju wrote, warning that “selling even a single BTC would destroy MSTR’s identity as a Bitcoin treasury company and trigger a death spiral for both Bitcoin and MSTR.” Strategy has repeatedly defined itself as a BTC-treasury vehicle, and its shareholder base largely bought into that mandate, making voluntary divestment politically and strategically improbable absent a radical shift in investor preference. Balance-sheet data underpins Ju’s confidence. Strategy reported 640,808 BTC as of Oct. 30, 2025, acquired for about $47.44 billion; subsequent filings cited major November additions taking holdings to roughly 649,870 BTC. Even after accounting for the growing convertible and preferred layers, the BTC treasury remains the dominant asset, meaning solvency stress would require an extreme, prolonged Bitcoin collapse rather than a cyclical drawdown. Related Reading: Why Bitwise Thinks Bitcoin Still Hits $200,000 In 2026 Ju did not claim the equity is risk-free. “This does not mean MSTR’s stock price will always stay high,” he wrote, but called the idea that Strategy would sell BTC to support the stock or face imminent bankruptcy “completely absurd.” He added that even at a price of $10,000 per coin, Strategy would face “a debt restructuring, nothing more.” On preferred shares, he acknowledged dividend obligations, noting payments have not been missed and can be covered via new share issuance—dilutive, but not a liquidation vector. Posting BTC as collateral, he said, would be a last resort because that would introduce real margin risk. In short, Ju’s rebuttal draws a hard line between volatility and insolvency: Strategy may trade like leveraged Bitcoin, but its liabilities do not mechanically force BTC sales. The “Saylor liquidation” narrative, he argues, is a Twitter myth unless the world ends—by asteroid. At press time, BTC traded at $82,050. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has found itself significantly exposed to the ongoing downturn in the cryptocurrency market, which has seen more than $1 trillion in total market capitalization wiped out over the past month. As the largest public holder of Bitcoin, with over 650,000 coins, the company is now facing the real threat of being removed from major benchmark indices, which have been crucial for its visibility in mainstream portfolios. Analysts Predict Major Impact On Strategy According to a recent Bloomberg report, analysts at JPMorgan Chase have issued a warning that Saylor’s firm may lose its standing in key indices such as MSCI USA and the Nasdaq 100. Related Reading: CEO Cuts Cardano Founder’s Bitcoin Price Forecast, Warns Bear Market Just Starting The analysts assert that this could result in passive outflows estimated between $2.8 billion and $8.8 billion if MSCI proceeds with a decision expected by January 15. Passive funds connected to the company currently account for nearly $9 billion in market exposure, making any index exclusion a substantial blow. Strategy’s business model has relied on a cyclical strategy of selling stock to buy Bitcoin, capitalizing on price rallies, and repeating this process. At its zenith, Saylor’s company’s market capitalization far exceeded the value of its Bitcoin holdings. However, that premium has evaporated, and the company’s valuation now aligns closely with its crypto reserves—a stark indication that investor confidence is fading rapidly. “While active managers are not bound to adhere to index changes, exclusion from major indices would undoubtedly be viewed negatively by market participants,” noted JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. Such a shift could affect liquidity, increase funding costs, and diminish overall investor appeal. MSCI Contemplates New Index Inclusion Rules In its ongoing consultations with stakeholders, MSCI indicated that some market players believe digital asset treasury firms (DATs) may function more like investment funds, which are ineligible for index inclusion. In accordance with these perspectives, MSCI has proposed excluding companies whose holdings in digital assets constitute 50% or more of their total assets from its global investment market indexes. Related Reading: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Bleeds Over $500 Million In Its Biggest One-Day Outflow Since peaking last November, Saylor’s firm has seen its shares (MSTR) decline by over 60%, causing a collapse in the premium that once attracted momentum and crypto-focused investors. Despite this slump, Saylor’s company remains up over 1,300% since he first began purchasing Bitcoin in August 2020, outperforming major equity indices throughout this period. The selloff has extended its reach into the company’s newer funding structures, as well. The prices of its perpetual preferred shares—an essential part of Saylor’s recent strategies—have seen sharp declines. Additionally, yields on securities issued in March have risen to 11.5%, up from a previous 10.5%. A recent euro-denominated preferred stock offering has already dropped below its discounted offering price in under two weeks. Michael Youngworth, head of global convertible bond strategy at Bank of America Global Research, remarked, “That premium has collapsed in recent weeks,” adding that the present situation makes capital raising increasingly challenging. Feature image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com