Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent's call for the Fed to hold off on rate cuts reflects a problem that reaches far beyond Washington: war-driven inflation is keeping the door to cheaper money shut. Reuters reported that Bessent urged caution because the Iran conflict is lifting fuel costs and complicating the inflation outlook. The Fed's own March […]
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Bitcoin might trade around the clock, but its liquidity doesn't anymore. The asset that was supposed to become more resilient after absorbing billions in institutional capital through ETFs has instead developed a split personality, one that looks deep and orderly during New York trading hours and considerably more fragile once Wall Street's desks go dark. […]
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Bitcoin floats just above $66,000 as geopolitical risks, macro uncertainty, and low liquidity keep price action range-bound ahead of Q2.
FTX will begin its fourth creditor distribution on March 31, with about $2.2 billion set to reach eligible customers through BitGo, Kraken, and Payoneer within 1 to 3 business days. On paper, this might look like just another routine bankruptcy milestone. But in practice, this could be a fresh liquidity test arriving as Bitcoin trades […]
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Analysts flag a resistance zone above $72,000 as bitcoin holds key support amid geopolitical tensions and macro headwinds.
Bitcoin trades above $70,000 ahead of the FOMC decision, with analysts pointing to heavy macro influence and a key liquidity inflection.
Washington is getting ready to potentially make life easier for the biggest US banks. That can sound pretty abstract if you don't strip it down to the mechanics. Regulators decide how much capital banks must keep to absorb losses and how much liquidity they need if funding starts to disappear. More capital and more liquidity […]
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Bitcoin sometimes sells off hard on days with no crypto headlines. A recurring driver sits outside crypto: a yen-funded carry unwind that forces cross-asset deleveraging, then transmits into BTC through thinner liquidity, wider spreads, and fast position reduction in derivatives. Here's the core mechanism in one line: if USD/JPY moves fast enough to trigger margin […]
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In this week’s Crypto Long & Short Newsletter, Leo Mindyuk of ML Tech writes that while crypto markets look liquid on paper, executable liquidity at scale is more fragmented and more fragile than most institutions assume.
Bitcoin’s slide through $65,000 and toward $60,000 felt like a stress test the market had been postponing. The move was sharp enough to force a reset in positioning, and broad enough to pull the conversation away from single-catalyst explanations. Even mainstream media described the week as Bitcoin’s worst weekly performance since late 2022, with price briefly […]
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Arthur Hayes, co‑founder of BitMEX, has pointed to hedging tied to BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) as a major driver behind the recent Bitcoin sell‑off. Related Reading: Bitcoin Edges Past Gold In Appeal, JPMorgan Says According to Hayes, dealer hedging related to IBIT and similar structured products can force large, mechanical selling when markets move against those positions. Reports note that such moves can amplify a price drop already set off by other pressures. Heavy Hedges Can Trigger Sudden Selling Pressure: Hayes Hayes argues that banks and dealers who underwrite structured notes and ETF‑linked products often hedge their exposure in the spot and derivatives markets. Those hedges can be heavy and fast. When a large product faces outflows or redemption triggers, hedges are adjusted quickly. That can translate into sudden selling pressure that pushes prices down further, especially if liquidity is thin. $BTC dump probably due to dealer hedging off the back of $IBIT structured products. I will be compiling a complete list of all issued notes by the banks to better understand trigger points that could cause rapid price rises and falls. As the game changes, u must as well. pic.twitter.com/9DF8VE9XBL — Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) February 7, 2026 Market Moves And Liquidity Stress The market behaved like a room of people trying to leave at once. Prices plunged, then bounced. Reports say Bitcoin fell steeply from its recent highs before staging a partial recovery. Bitcoin has fallen to around $68,500 Saturday, down 16% in the last seven days, data from Coingecko shows. Trades and order books showed spikes in volume, which is one sign that hedging flows and quick rebalancing were at play. Some analysts say macro news and trader positioning also mattered. The truth likely sits in the overlap of these causes. Who Bears The Risk Dealers carry risk when they underwrite complex products. In certain moments, that risk is passed back into the market through hedging. That’s how, according to Hayes, a few large issuers can indirectly set off a chain reaction that affects many other holders and traders. The moves can be sudden and mechanical, not always driven by sentiment. A Watchful Washington Reports say the role of spot ETFs in crypto markets is now on regulators’ and policymakers’ radar. US President Donald Trump’s economic team has been monitoring big flows into and out of institutional vehicles, while market participants debate whether ETFs stabilize prices or add new stress points. Whatever the view, structured products now form a clear link between traditional finance and crypto volatility. Broader Takeaways This episode underlines how new financial plumbing can create new channels for contagion. Some see the presence of large, regulated players as a net positive for long‑term adoption. Others warn those same players introduce conventional market mechanics that can behave unpredictably when stretched. Reports note both perspectives are useful when piecing together why prices moved the way they did. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sell-Off May Be Done, Analyst Flags Recovery Signs Who Is Right, And What Next Hayes has laid out a theory that ties observable hedging flows to the crash. It is a compelling thread that fits many of the market signals seen in recent days. Still, other factors—macro shifts, concentrated profit‑taking, and liquidity gaps—likely played parts as well. Traders will watch flows closely, and structured product issuers will be asked hard questions. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Analysts say the latest crypto selloff has been marked by fragmented liquidity, tight rotation and dispersion rather than pure capitulation.
In a global investor survey from Coinbase Institutional and Glassnode, 1 in 4 institutions agreed that crypto has now entered a bear market. Yet the majority of institutions still said Bitcoin was undervalued, and most said they had held or increased exposure since October. That discrepancy matters because it captures how institutions are positioning right […]
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Bulls kept a collapse from happening this week when Bitcoin found buying interest above the mid-$80,000s. Prices bounced off a key range, and that breathing room has traders watching the market’s plumbing — not just the headline price. Reports note that the path to a lasting recovery is likely to go through improved liquidity, with market watchers pointing to on-chain measures as the real signal to watch. Related Reading: Record Pain: Bitcoin Investors Suffer $4.5B Loss, Most In 3 Years At Center Stage: Market Structure And Liquidity Glassnode and other analysts have flagged a tight snapshot of supply stress: roughly 22% of circulating Bitcoin is sitting below its purchase price, which raises the chance that outsized selling could kick in if support fails. That’s a nontrivial share of coins that could change hands under pressure. Any meaningful transition back toward a strong market rally should be reflected in liquidity-sensitive indicators such as the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90D-SMA). A sustained rise above ~5 has historically signalled a renewal of liquidity inflows into the market.… https://t.co/ct0FhOLFXh pic.twitter.com/JqbfdlRk2b — glassnode (@glassnode) January 28, 2026 The specific metric now being watched is the realized profit/loss ratio on a 90-day basis. Historical episodes of steady recoveries have tended to line up with this ratio moving above about 5, which many analysts treat as a sign that real money is rotating back into the market. A repeat of that pattern would make rallies more durable; until then, rallies look vulnerable to being trimmed. According to a post shared on X, Glassnode said focus has moved toward liquidity after Bitcoin managed to defend the $80,700 to $83,400 support zone. Reports note that any move toward a lasting rally would need to show up in liquidity-based signals, with close attention on the 90-day moving average of the realized profit and loss ratio. Bitcoin Price Action And Geopolitics Midweek trading left Bitcoin in a cautious band near the high-$80,000s. Geopolitical headlines have been shaking risk appetite, nudging some traders into safer assets and prompting short bursts of volatility. That has kept follow-through buying muted even when prices test higher levels, and it helps explain why some short-term bets are focused on a squeeze toward the low-$90,000s before profit-taking reappears. Flows Into Exchanges Still Low Exchange inflows, a rough barometer of selling pressure, remain subdued. Data shared by market trackers shows monthly BTC inflows to Binance at levels far below the long-term average — only a fraction of what was typical in past years — suggesting many holders are choosing to keep coins off exchanges rather than move them for sale. That reduces immediate downside risk, but it does not prove that buyers will step in en masse. Related Reading: Gold, Silver Steal The Spotlight As Crypto Hype Fades On Social Media: Santiment Futures And The Risk Of A Liquidity Grab Futures markets and options positioning hint at a possible short-term liquidity grab near the low-$90,000s, where stops and leverage cluster and can be pulled into a quick move. Such moves are often violent and brief. They can create the impression of a breakout, only for spot markets to settle back once the extra liquidity is consumed. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Crypto analyst Matt Hughes is arguing the global liquidity cycle is stretching well beyond its usual rhythm and that the extension is precisely why staying structurally bearish on crypto has been so punishing since 2020. Hughes, who posts as “The Great Mattsby,” said Monday that the cycle is “now ~6 years strong post-2020 with no clear peak in sight as of early 2026,” framing the move as something closer to a super-cycle than a standard 4–6 year expansion. What This Means For The Crypto Market Hughes’ core claim is that the traditional mechanism that ends liquidity cycles, central banks tightening into contraction, is being blunted by a mix of debt math, fragmented global money creation, and a capital-intensive investment boom that keeps pulling liquidity back into risk assets rather than allowing it to drain out. “The current global liquidity cycle is on track to become the longest ever, smashing past the typical 4–6 year patterns we’ve seen historically. Here’s why it’s stretching into a true super-cycle (now ~6 years strong post-2020 with no clear peak in sight as of early 2026):” Hughes wrote, before laying out the macro pillars of the thesis. First, Hughes points to the scale of leverage in the system as a constraint on normalization. “Global debt/GDP >350% creates a refinancing nightmare,” he wrote, arguing that each policy response has to be larger to prevent defaults and that aggressive tightening risks cascading sovereign and emerging-market stress. In that framework, policy makers are boxed into “perpetual support mode,” which delays the kind of contraction that would normally mark the end of a liquidity upswing. Related Reading: US Government Bitcoin, Crypto Theft Allegation Emerges Involving CEO’s Son Second, Hughes argues the cycle can run longer because global liquidity is no longer dominated by a single central bank. “The old dollar-only world is fragmenting,” he wrote, describing a “bifurcation of the global monetary system” in which liquidity creation outside the US can offset periods when the Federal Reserve is tighter. In his telling, a multipolar setup — spanning “BRICS nations,” China as a major credit creator, and alternative stores of value including “yuan, gold, crypto” — makes the overall system more resilient than past cycles that were more synchronized. Third, Hughes links the endurance of the cycle to an unusually large wave of capital demand. He calls AI, renewables, data centers, chip fabs, and blockchain “capital hogs,” arguing that the scale of funding required “demand & absorb endless liquidity.” He also ties that directly to market behavior, writing that risk assets like “IWM small-caps, ARKK innovation, BTC” pushing toward or near all-time highs is consistent with a cycle that is “closer to start than end.” Related Reading: Bitwise Says Crypto Has Likely Bottomed, Echoing Q1 2023 Setup Finally, Hughes emphasizes a policy bias toward preventing downturns. He described central banks as “hyper-proactive,” citing tools like forward guidance and yield curve control alongside tighter fiscal-monetary coordination. He also argued geopolitical priorities: reshoring, infrastructure, and the energy transition reinforce a stimulus-leaning posture, while traditional recession signals have been less reliable, pointing to a record-long 10y/3m inversion “without collapse.” Not everyone in the thread accepted the implication that the liquidity impulse remains cleanly supportive. A user posting as zam flagged a near-term risk: “My concern here is that Michael Howell says that liquidity momentum is slowing down considerably and that the liquidity is peaking very soon for this cycle. Any thoughts on that?” Hughes’ reply was succinct: “It can rotate into other assets as long as the economy is strong.” For crypto markets, the exchange captures the key tension: whether the cycle’s length is the dominant story, or whether a decelerating liquidity impulse changes the playbook via rotation rather than outright collapse. Hughes’ framing leaves the timing open-ended, asking followers whether the crypto peak arrives “at the end of 2026 or even longer,” while implicitly suggesting bears may need a clearer, system-wide rollover in liquidity, not just slower momentum, before the macro backdrop decisively turns. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $2.95 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Institutions have learned to live with Bitcoin’s volatility because volatility is measurable and, for many strategies, manageable. What still holds back large allocations is the risk of moving the market while getting in or out. A fund can hedge price swings with options or futures, but it can't hedge the cost of pushing through a […]
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More than 36 million ETH is now staked in Ethereum's proof-of-stake system, close to 30% of the circulating supply and worth over $118 billion at recent prices. That headline number sounds like a clean vote of confidence: holders are locking up their ETH to secure the network, collect yield, and signal they’re in no rush […]
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Bitcoin and altcoin prices have pushed higher, but Glassnode data shows spot trading activity has dropped to its weakest levels since late 2023.
The number didn’t look dramatic at first glance ($13.5 billion in overnight repos on Dec. 1), but for anyone who watches the Federal Reserve’s plumbing, it was a noticeable spike. These operations rarely break into headlines, yet they drive the liquidity currents that shape everything from bond spreads to equity appetite to the way Bitcoin […]
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Analysts say improving liquidity conditions could set up a key test of resistance as Bitcoin consolidates above $90,000.
Bitcoin price erased recent gains, shedding nearly 5% to below $87,000 in early Asian trading hours on Dec. 1. This came as a surge in Japanese government bond yields triggered a broad risk-off sentiment, shattering a fragile, low-volume market structure. According to CryptoSlate data, BTC fell from a consolidation range near $91,000, wiping out approximately […]
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Large holder deposits have hit exchanges and realized losses are climbing, according to CryptoQuant and Glassnode, indicating the market’s rally is being built on thin liquidity.
Oracle did what every legacy tech giant dreams of. In September, it announced a $300 billion cloud deal wrapped around OpenAI, the hottest name in software, and watched its stock rip higher. Two months later, the market gave its verdict. Oracle has shed more than $300 billion in market value, trading below its pre-AI announcement […]
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This inefficiency disproportionately affects retail liquidity providers, with 50% losing money due to impermanent loss, and net deficits exceeding $60 million, a new report finds.
In this week’s Crypto Long & Short Newsletter, Joshua de Vos shares insights from a recent Benchmark report on how the exchange landscape is maturing and becoming more execution-focused, but increasingly uneven as regional licensing diverges, liquidity fragments, and transparency advances inconsistently. Then, we take a look at where the digital assets market may be headed in the final weeks of 2025 with Andy Baehr’s “Vibe Check."
Aqua introduces a "shared liquidity layer" that enables capital from a single wallet to back multiple trading strategies simultaneously.
Despite calmer prices after October’s brutal leverage wipeout, bitcoin and ether market depth remains structurally thin, creating a more fragile trading environment.
Uniswap has unveiled its Continuous Clearing Auction protocol for onchain token auctions with automatic liquidity seeding and optional ZK-based privacy.
According to an analyst, Bitcoin sits in a liquidity set-up that has shown up before big rallies. Prices are not shooting higher yet. At press time Bitcoin trades around $104,500, down 0.5% over the past day. Related Reading: XRP’s Next ‘Face-Melting’ Rally Could Hit Within 6 Weeks—Analyst Traders watched a decline of about 1.8% earlier that pushed the price near $103,400 and it briefly touched $102,850 during the move. Stablecoin Signal Points Toward Accumulation CryptoQuant analyst Moreno points to the Stablecoin Supply Ratio, or SSR, as the first clear indicator. The SSR compares Bitcoin’s market cap to the total market cap of stablecoins. It has dropped back into the 13 range. Based on historical readings, that 13 area has lined up with market lows in mid-2021 and at several moments across 2024. Reports show that when SSR fell to similar levels, liquidity quietly built up and buying followed after a period of low volatility. Liquidity Pattern Has Appeared Before Every Bitcoin Surge — And It’s Back “We’re witnessing a liquidity configuration that has only appeared a handful of times since 2020, and each instance marked a pivotal moment for Bitcoin’s trajectory.” – By @MorenoDV_ pic.twitter.com/vWKcCkyn55 — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 11, 2025 Binance Reserve Trends Add A Second Layer The second metric Moreno highlights comes from Binance. On that exchange, stablecoin balances are rising while Bitcoin reserves are shrinking. In plain terms: more cash-like tokens sit on the exchange and fewer coins are being held there. That pattern has appeared only a handful of times since 2020, according to the data he referenced. Each time, the movement suggested capital waiting on the sidelines and holders moving coins off exchanges into longer-term storage. Market Calm Can Hide Big Moves The current trading backdrop is cautious. Many investors expected a lift after news that the US Congress approved short-term federal funding through January 30, yet crypto did not rally with other risk assets. Some capital rotated back to stocks. At the same time, large holders took profits after recent highs, and momentum cooled. That mix shows how macro events can shift flows without immediately turning into crypto buying. Risk Still Exists — Structure Could Break Moreno warns this liquidity zone acts like a final structural support. If the metrics break down decisively, it could signal a deeper reset before any sustained recovery. In that scenario, buying would likely be delayed and volatility would rise. This is not a guaranteed outcome, but it is a clear risk that traders watch closely. Outlook: Limited Downside, Growing Upside Based on reports and on-chain signals, Moreno believes the risk-to-reward favors buyers at these levels. He points to the built-up stablecoin supply and falling exchange BTC reserves as reasons for that view. Related Reading: Could Shiba Inu Triple? Analyst Sees 200% Move Coming Historical patterns suggest the last three months of the year often bring gains for Bitcoin, but past behavior does not promise future returns. For now, the indicators show capital parked in stablecoins and fewer coins available on major exchanges. That creates a setup where fresh buying could push the market higher quickly if sentiment turns. Yet the opposite is possible: a break below these levels would reshape the cycle and force many participants to rethink positions. Markets will decide which path comes next. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin’s four-year cycle used to offer a simple script: halving rewards meant scarcity, and scarcity meant higher prices. This pattern held for over a decade. Every four years, the network’s reward to miners was halved, thereby tightening the supply, followed by a speculative frenzy that resulted in a new all-time high. However, as Bitcoin hovers […]
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