The Bitcoin price action has sparked renewed interest among analysts and investors as the cryptocurrency approaches a major event (the US election) later in November. A CryptoQuant analyst known as CoinLupin recently provided an analysis on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, focusing on Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a metric often used to gauge Bitcoin’s value compared to its on-chain fundamentals. With macroeconomic factors creating uncertainty in the crypto markets, CoinLupin shared insights on the significance of MVRV for evaluating Bitcoin’s current market position. Related Reading: Mt. Gox Stirs Market with 500 Bitcoin Transfer to Unknown Wallets—What’s Next for BTC? MVRV And Historical Cycle Peaks The MVRV ratio, currently around 2, indicates that Bitcoin’s market value is approximately double its on-chain realized value, reflecting the average price paid by all asset holders. CoinLupin explained that the key lies in observing trend changes within the MVRV ratio over time rather than fixating on this absolute value. Using the 365-day Bollinger Band for MVRV along with the 4-year average—a common reflection of Bitcoin’s cyclical trends—the analyst noted that the MVRV ratio is currently above the long-term average and recently exceeded its 365-day moving average. According to CoinLupin, this suggests that Bitcoin’s upward trend remains intact. CoinLupin elaborated on the potential significance of Bitcoin’s MVRV levels, particularly regarding historical cycle peaks. In previous cycles, Bitcoin has typically peaked when the MVRV ratio is between 3 and 3.6. While Bitcoin’s current MVRV of 2 does not yet approach this peak range, the upward trend in the MVRV indicates that the market may still have room for growth if historical patterns hold. Should the Realized Value (RV) remain constant, CoinLupin’s analysis projects that Bitcoin would need a price increase of around 43% to 77% to reach an MVRV level between 3 and 3.6. This translates to a potential price target range of $95,000 to $120,000, provided market conditions support upward momentum. However, the analyst also noted that the Realized Value could increase as new buying interest emerges, potentially pushing peak valuations beyond these estimated levels. Bitcoin Market Performance After several weeks and days of building momentum to surge past the $70,000 resistance, Bitcoin has again fallen below this price mark, indicating that there might not be enough momentum yet to move further to the upside. So far, the asset has declined by nearly 1% in the past week. However, BTC currently trades for $68,306, recording a slight increase in price by 1% as its 24-hour high remains at $69,317. Interestingly, despite the slight dip in price in the past weeks, Bitcoin’s daily trading volume has registered an increase over this period. Related Reading: Tracking Bitcoin’s Profit Cycles: Could A New Market High Be Near? Particularly, data from CoinGecko shows that BTC’s 24-hour trading volume has increased from below $30 billion last Monday to currently above $38 billion as of today. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
A seasoned market expert has shed light on Bitcoin’s current bearish performance, noting that the small price correction that has led to a significant liquidation of BTC positions is “healthy and reasonable,” addressing worries about its future potential. Bitcoin’s Bearish Move Not A Thing To Worry About? Bitcoin’s recent upward rally witnessed earlier last week […]
The TRON network has been making a notable impact across altcoin ecosystems, regaining its position as the leading blockchain for transaction volume among major altcoin chains. According to a CryptoQuant analyst known as ‘Maartuun,’ TRON has shown substantial transaction dominance recently, handling roughly 43% of transactions across major altcoin blockchains as of October 30. This recent spike has pushed TRON to the top position for transaction processing in October, surpassing other major altcoin networks and highlighting its relevance in the current crypto market. Related Reading: Expert Picks 5 Altcoins To Watch, Declaring Arrival Of The Altseason After Three Years Deciphering TRON’s Transaction Dominance Data shared by maartuun reveals that in October alone, TRON processed approximately 230 million transactions, marking a significant activity surge. On October 24, the network peaked, handling 10.46 million transactions, around 25% higher than its 30-day average. This activity level reflects TRON’s increased usage, aligning with its performance in 2024, when it frequently led in transaction volume. However, between late August and early October, TRON’s transaction dominance slightly waned, with other networks experiencing temporary spikes in activity. TRON’s return to the forefront suggests the asset is reclaiming its crown and maintaining its status as a “highly utilized” blockchain network for altcoin transactions. The CryptoQuant analyst’s observations suggest that TRON’s current dominance in transaction volume is likely to persist. This trend is supported by historical data, showing that TRON has maintained strong transaction levels over extended periods. It is worth noting that the network’s current transaction share indicates a broader shift within the blockchain industry toward networks that offer scalability and low fees, essential factors for sustaining high transaction rates. TRON’s ability to handle many transactions daily sets it apart from many other altcoin platforms, adding to its appeal and supporting its adoption within various blockchain-based applications and projects. TRON Market Performance While TRON’s on-chain fundamentals appear to be doing well, the network’s native token (TRX) market price performance can also be said to have seen positive movements in recent weeks. Particularly following the ubiquitous price increase in the crypto market led by Bitcoin, TRX has followed the overall bullish trend, increasing by 5.6% in the past fortnight and 3.1% in the past week. Related Reading: Crypto Expert Discloses ‘Hidden Altcoin Gem’ With 1,900% Upside However, the asset’s price performance in the past day isn’t all that positive. Over this period, TRX has faced a slight correction, falling from its 24-hour high of $0.1705 to a price of $0.1684 at the time of writing. While TRX’s price has seen an uptick, its daily trading volume seems to be recording an opposite trend. In the past few days, this metric has decreased from over $600 million seen last weekend to below $500 million. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin on-chain activity is gaining momentum as a CryptoQuant analyst, known as ‘Yonsei Dent,’ recently pointed to a potential golden cross within the active addresses metric. This indicator tracks the number of unique addresses engaging with the Bitcoin network, providing insights into the network’s overall activity, investor involvement, and possible market directions. Related Reading: Stablecoins Signal Strong Bitcoin Demand: Could BTC Renew Its ATH Soon? Golden Cross On Bitcoin Active Addresses According to Dent’s analysis, applying a monthly and annual moving average to this number of active addresses metric could indicate a shift toward bullish momentum. A high number of active addresses generally suggests strong participation, while fewer addresses may indicate reduced interest. Dent noted that when the 30-day moving average of active addresses crosses above the 365-day moving average—a phenomenon known as a “golden cross”—it often correlates with upward price momentum in the Bitcoin market. This alignment between short-term and long-term trends can suggest renewed interest among both retail and institutional investors, which could potentially sustain or even increase Bitcoin’s value. Furthermore, the concept of the golden cross in active addresses is significant in light of previous market cycles, Dent pointed out. According to the CryptoQuant analyst, the last notable shift in Bitcoin’s active addresses occurred post all-time high (ATH) levels, leading to what is called a “dead cross,” where the short-term average fell below the long-term average. This pattern typically signals bearish sentiment or market stagnation. However, the current reversion to a golden cross shows a different scenario. Transaction volumes are almost double what they were during Bitcoin’s 2021 price cycle, a favourable sign of increased market engagement and potential upward momentum. The analyst concluded that a weaker or inconclusive golden cross could lead to a repeat of mid-2021 trends, where price gains faced strong resistance without maintaining upward movement. BTC On Track For $100k Rally? In the past weeks, Bitcoin has seen quite a noticeable rebound in price, reclaiming price levels it once faced resistance in. So far, the asset has recorded double digit gains in the slightly higher time frames suggesting that a positive momentum has begun. Particualry, in the past 30 days, BTC has increased by 13% and nearly 10% in the past 7 days. This increase has brought the asset price to currently trade above $72,000 as of today. This price zone not only equals 2.3% decrease from its ATH registered in March 2024 but also marks a vital level that makes the increase above $100,000 more likely. Related Reading: “Time To Get Ready For Another Bull Run,” Bitcoin Analyst Says— Here’s Why Highlighting this, renowned crypto analyst, Javon Marks noted that with Bitcoin so far holding above $67,559, the rally to $116,652 is in play. #Bitcoin (BTC) has just recently marked its highest 3 Day close EVER, and is currently holding above a vital level at $67,559. Being above this level means the target at $116,652 is, according to technicals, in play, implying room for another +61.2% upside from here! https://t.co/R483X5gC5J pic.twitter.com/rBKjwXdPft — JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) October 30, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Over-the-counter desks hold 416,000 bitcoin ($30 billion), a level that has remained stagnant for the past month.
Despite its recent price rally, search interest for “Bitcoin” on Google is still generating only a fraction of the traffic that “AI” has over the last week.
Toncoin, which is one of the best-performing cryptocurrencies in 2024, has also been affected in recent months by the widespread bearish climate of the market. The price of the altcoin seems to be recovering nicely after suffering an abrupt decline on Friday, October 26. As of this writing, the value of Toncoin stands around $4.92, reflecting an almost 3% upswing in the past day. However, this single-day action has had minimal impact on the token’s performance on the weekly timeframe. According to data from CoinGecko, the TON price is down by nearly 7% in the past week. What Does The Declining Sharpe Ratio Mean? In a recent Quicktake post on the CryptoQuant platform, an analyst with the pseudonym Darkfost explained the relevance of the “Sharpe Ratio” metric to cryptocurrency price. According to the crypto pundit, the Sharpe Ratio for Toncoin has been in decline in recent weeks, signaling a period of decreased risk. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Flashes Bullish Pennant On Daily Heikin Ashi Chart, What This Means The relevant metric here is the Sharpe Ratio, which assesses the risk-adjusted returns of an investment. This indicator basically measures how much profit an investment offers per unit of risk (considering risk is quantified by volatility). Typically, a rising Sharpe Ratio signals a higher risk-adjusted performance. On the other hand, when this metric is in a downward trend, it implies that the coin is in a “lower-risk zone” and profits are becoming less significant. According to Darkfost, it appears that both volatility and risk are decreasing for Toncoin, as its Sharpe Ratio continues to fall. With the altcoin showing reduced sensitivity to price fluctuations, it offers a more favorable risk-return balance and a less risky market for investors. A less volatile market condition may be ideal for Toncoin investors to accumulate tokens with less exposure to abrupt price movements. The Quicktake analyst, however, warned investors to approach the market with caution as the “lower-risk zone” may not be completely safe. Darkfost specifically advised investors to still watch out for Bitcoin’s price movements, as the market tends to respond to swings from the premier cryptocurrency. Toncoin To Overtake Ethereum In This Metric Before 2025 In a separate Quicktake post, an analyst has projected Toncoin to overtake Ethereum in terms of adoption before the end of 2024. According to Maartunn, the number of TON holders, which currently stands at 112 million, is expected to surpass ETH holders by December 20, 2024. This projection is based on Toncoin’s recent growth spurt, which has seen the network gain an average of 500,000 new holders daily over the past month. According to the Quicktake analyst, the number of TON holders could exceed that of Ethereum (currently 137 million) if this trend continues. Related Reading: Would Bitcoin Reclaim $70,000 Soon? Key Data Suggests New Investors Hold the Key However, Maartunn noted that this prediction doesn’t account for the potential of a slowdown in TON’s growth rate and the continuous growth of ETH holders. The analyst acknowledged that while these two factors are only variables, they may still influence the projected dates. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Following its bearish start to October, Bitcoin has since shifted momentum, rising as high as $69,000 in the last two weeks. Despite this significant price rally, Bitcoin retail investors remain hesitant to engage the market. In its weekly crypto report on Friday, blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant shared an interesting insight into this low retail activity in the Bitcoin market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To See 70%+ Powerful Bull Wave To Push It Over $100,000, How High Can It Go? Bitcoin Retail Investors’ Holding Grows At Historically Slow Pace – Report According to CryptoQuant, retail investors’ holdings have grown by 18,000 BTC valued at $1.2 billion over the last four months reaching a total new value of 1.753 million BTC worth $112.7 billion. While this development demonstrates a rising market interest by these small investors, the analytic firm notes the pace of accumulation is significantly slow compared to historical data as retail investors only acquired a net 1,000 BTC valued at $66.31 million, in the last 30 days. Notably, the retail investor accumulation rate has been on a consistent decline since May 2023, when their holdings rose by 27,000 BTC worth $1.79 billion Therefore, CryptoQuant reports that these Bitcoin individual investors have only increased their investments by 30,000 BTC valued at $1.99 billion in 2024, which pales in comparison to the whale investors whose holdings have grown by 173,000 BTC worth $11.50 billion in the same period. During periods of price gain, low retail investor activity as discussed above can be concerning as it represents decreased market liquidity or even a lack of market confidence in the asset’s ability to sustain its current bullish trajectory. Alternatively, this lack of interest from small-scale investors also presents positive indications. For example, CryptoQuant reports that low retail activity includes these small investors holding onto their Bitcoin rather than selling. The analytics firm notes that Bitcoin transfer to exchange in January 2023 has decreased from a daily average of 2,700 BTC to 1,400 BTC in 2024, thus there is reduced selling pressure on the token. In addition, transfer activity among retail investors remains low, with transaction volume dropping to $326 million on September 21, the lowest level recorded since 2020. While reduced transfer activity may indicate limited market volatility, CryptoQuant states that low retail activity has historically preceded significant price gains for Bitcoin. Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at 66,896 following a 1.11% decline in the last day due to reports of an alleged investigation into Tether, the issuer of stablecoin USDT, and conflict in the Middle East. However, Bitcoin’s daily trading volume is up by 34.29% and is valued at $42.10 billion. Related Reading: Bitcoin As National Reserve Asset: Key Insights From Forbes On Central Banks Interest Featured image from Shuttershock, chart from Tradingview
Ethereum (ETH) has experienced a lackluster phase in recent weeks, with the asset seeing small price surges but still struggling to hold near or above the $3,000 mark after a brief rally in August. According to a recent analysis from a CryptoQuant analyst, the behind the scenes of this price struggle for ETH has been quite interesting, with the asset seeing a significant shift in its netflow. This shift in Ethereum’s netflow could have significant implications for ETH, potentially influencing the market’s reaction positively or negatively. Related Reading: Ethereum ‘Verge’ Upgrade To Simplify Running Nodes On Phones And Wearables Dissecting The Ethereum Netflow The CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha revealed in a recent post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform that Ethereum has recently experienced a spike in netflows, with approximately 96,000 ETH moving into derivative exchanges. According to Taha, this influx could indicate that traders are positioning for potential price shifts, as large transfers to derivatives platforms have historically preceded periods of increased volatility or even corrections. Taha’s analysis, backed by previous spikes in May and early July, suggests that Ethereum’s current activity might foreshadow a heightened period of market movement. The analyst wrote: The latest spike in netflow could signal another period of heightened market activity, potentially a price correction or a sharp move based on trader positioning. Market Sentiment Drawn From Bitcoin In addition to Ethereum’s netflows, Taha delved into Bitcoin’s Futures Sentiment Index, observing that this metric shows peaks in sentiment that may serve as indicators of broader market behavior. He pointed out three instances where the sentiment index spiked, marked by red-circled peaks (in the chart above), each time coinciding with a local market top. This trend implies that, following peaks in trader sentiment, Bitcoin’s price typically experiences a decline. The sentiment index, thus, can serve as a “contrarian indicator”—when optimism peaks, price corrections often follow. These sentiment patterns may signal that investors should brace for potential volatility for Ethereum, which is highly correlated with Bitcoin. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Faces Key Hurdles: Can It Break Through? Meanwhile, Ethereum has continued to hover somewhere below $3,000. So far, the asset has registered a correction in the past week, dropping by 3.1%. However, the past day performance is attempting to be more positive. Over this period, Ethereum has seen a slight increase of 0.9%, rising to as high as $2,559 earlier today before now trading for $2,541, at the time of writing. Despite the notable fluctuation the asset has seen in the past week alone, rising to above $2,700 and dropping below $2,500, Ethereum daily trading volume seems to have maintained composure. Data from Coingecko shows that this metric has remained between $15 billion and $19 billion in the past week with no major spike or decline. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Spot Bitcoin ETF demand soars to a six-month high, but BTC futures contract volumes “remain somewhat subdued” and could be a reason why the price is constrained.
Bitcoin recent decline has led to a slight pushback in investor confidence and increased anticipation within the crypto community, with many now craving a rally back above $70,000 more than before. Amid this, a new analysis suggests that although the Bitcoin market could be on the brink of a major breakout, it hinges on a major indicator that concerns new investors. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Network Fundamentals Turn Bullish—Here Are The Details New Investors Hold the Key According to a CryptoQuant analyst, Avocado Onchain, new market investors could drive the next significant upward price movement. The analyst shared these insights on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, highlighting key data trends that point to a potential price surge. Avocado Onchain’s analysis focuses on “Unspent Transaction Outputs (UTXOs),” specifically those under six months old. UTXOs represent the amount of cryptocurrency that remains unspent after a transaction, and they can provide valuable insights into market sentiment. According to the analyst, the decline in UTXOs under six months has stopped and is now leveling off. Currently, only 8.6% of Bitcoin investors are at a loss based on the present price of the cryptocurrency. In past market cycles, when the decline in UTXOs halted and showed an increase, Bitcoin’s price often surged, marking the beginning of a new bull run. Bitcoin Historical Patterns And Market Sentiment The CryptoQuanat analyst further highlighted that the data from previous Bitcoin market cycles reveals a pattern in which the percentage of investors holding losses converged toward zero before significant price increases occurred. Avocado points out that in those instances, as the number of investors in loss diminished, new investors entered the market in large numbers, driven by rising optimism. This influx of new participants tends to trigger a sharp price rise as new buyers increase demand for Bitcoin and fuel further upward momentum. For Bitcoin’s price to reach new heights, the analyst suggests that market sentiment must shift more favorably. This positive sentiment is typically fuelled by the entry of new investors who tend to buy in when market conditions are improving. Related Reading: Bitcoin Profitability Index Hits 202%: Is This Enough For A Top? Avocado also highlights that these new investors often show increased interest when Bitcoin nears or breaks through its previous all-time high, leading to an “explosive influx” of new buyers. If Bitcoin’s current market conditions align with historical patterns, the cryptocurrency could be on the verge of a significant breakout. The CryptoQuant analyst further notes that while Bitcoin’s price has recently been in a downtrend, this leveling off of UTXO data is a key sign that could indicate a reversal. The analyst noted: If history repeats itself, the current price of Bitcoin could be seen as being on the verge of an explosive breakout. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency asset, could be set for positive movement once again. Recent developments around Coinbase Premium spark the potential for a short-term rally, suggesting a positive outlook for BTC in the upcoming weeks. Short-Term Rally For Bitcoin On The Horizon The Coinbase Premium, a key indicator that measures BTC’s price differences on the […]
Bitcoin mining difficulty has surged by 378% over three years, signaling the potential for institutional-driven BTC stability by 2030.
Bitcoin has recently seen an uptick in retail investor activity following months of subdued participation, according to a report by CryptoQuant analyst caueconomy. The analyst highlighted this in a post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, disclosing how this return in retail demand could be one of the signs of a bull market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Watch Out: Miners Showing Unusual Exchange Inflow Activity Bitcoin Retail Activity Returns After 4-Month Decline The CryptoQuant analyst noted that on-chain transaction volumes of up to $10,000—a key indicator of retail investment—have increased by approximately 13% in the past 30 days. This marks a shift after four months, during which smaller investors were largely inactive. caueconomy wrote: Note that in the last 4 months we have seen a decrease in the activity of these small investors, while whales maintained a high amount of transactions and absorption of coins. The analyst further explained that the increase in small investor activity is typically more sensitive to market sentiment and news than fundamental factors. Additionally, it provides an early indicator of capital flows into the Bitcoin network. As mentioned by caueconomy, this rise in retail demand, which hasn’t been observed since March, could signal the beginning of a trend toward “lower risk aversion” among non-institutional market participants. Notably, this increase in small investor activity comes at a time when Bitcoin’s price has seen constant increase in the past week, with the cryptocurrency recently attempting to reclaim the $70,000 mark. An Outlook On BTC’s Price—72% Rally Next? While retail demand appears to be returning, Bitcoin faces a minor retracement after its recent attempt to break the $70,000 price mark earlier today. The crypto asset reached a high of $69,431 earlier today but has since fallen by 2.4% in the past 24 hours, bringing the current price down to $66,951. Despite this slight dip, market sentiment among analysts remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s future potential. One notable analyst, Javon Marks, recently took to X to express his bullish outlook for Bitcoin. Marks highlighted a potential 72% price increase that could push Bitcoin to $116,000 or higher. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales ‘Grew Substantially’ During Last Dip, Data Shows Large-Holder Accumulation According to his analysis, Bitcoin has been working around a key price level of $67,559. Despite the recent pullback, several bullish patterns—such as Hidden Bullish Divergences—suggest that Bitcoin may soon break above this level. If Bitcoin successfully crosses this threshold, it could increase price movement toward $116,652. Back to the basics for #Bitcoin (BTC) again and a >72% move to $116,000+ still looks likely ⚡️! In this setup, we see Bitcoin working on a key level at $67,559, after a monumental, more than 333% climb to reach + break above it before pulling back since March. Now, during this… https://t.co/iocZrLlRGx pic.twitter.com/XCrjd56w3W — JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) October 21, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
A crypto analyst highlighted a 65% increase in Ethereum held in accumulation wallets since the start of 2024, arguing that it's no longer just for "tech enthusiasts."
In a bullish trading week, Ethereum (ETH) surged by over 8% as its market price returned above the $2,600 price mark. However, amidst this rally, certain market developments have occurred which raises questions over Ethereum’s future price movements. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Consolidates: Preparing for the Next Move Higher? 50,000 ETH Flow Into Derivative Exchange – Price To Rise Or Fall? In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, an analyst with username Amr Taha reported there has been a positive net flow of over 50,000 ETH valued at $132.12 million on derivative exchanges. In this context, net flow measures the difference between the amount of ETH deposited and the amount of ETH withdrawn from derivative exchanges, which are standard trading platforms for products such as options and futures contracts. Therefore, a positive net flow indicates a higher amount of ETH has been deposited than withdrawn on the last day. Analyzing the implications of this development on Ethereum’s price, Amr Taha has postulated two situations. First, the analyst states that a positive net flow to derivative exchanges could indicate a potential rise in selling pressure as traders may be looking to offload their ETH either by opening a short position or selling through a futures contract at a predetermined price. Alternatively, a positive net flow may indicate that traders are depositing ETH to use as collateral for margin or future contracts betting that the price of ETH will rise, thus expressing confidence in the token’s profitability. Essentially, this massive positive ETH net flow holds significant potential to swing Ethereum’s price either way based on traders’ actions. Related Reading: Survey Finds Almost 70% Of Ethereum Institutional Investors Engaged In ETH Staking Ethereum Prepares For Encounter With Crucial Resistance In other news, Ethereum continues to trade at $2,636 reflecting gains of 1.11% and 12.89% in the last one and 30 days respectively. Meanwhile, the token’s daily trading volume is up by 12.89% and is valued at $17.06 billion. However, despite these positive metrics, data from CoinMarketCap shows that market sentiment towards the altcoin is largely bearish as investors perhaps anticipate a price retracement following the ETH’s recent gain in the last week. Interestingly, the Ethereum daily chart shows the token is approaching a key resistance level at $2,700 which has served as a strong rejection zone over the last two months. Albeit, the relative strength Index is still some significant distance away from the overbought zone indicating Ethereum’s price rally may be far from over and may break past this resistance level. In addition, analysts have observed an ascending triangle pattern on the ETH hourly chart indicating strong bullish potential to surge past $2,700 reaching as high as $2,870 in the coming days. Featured image from Bernard Marr, chart from Tradingview
The Bitcoin price and the bull run appear to be back on the right track after recording its best weekly performance in the past month. Despite starting the week quietly and hovering around the $63,000 level, the premier cryptocurrency received fresh bullish momentum mid-week, pushing its value to almost $69,000 on Friday. The latest on-chain observation has revealed that the activity level of the Bitcoin network has been on the rise over the past few weeks. While this development might have contributed to the recent price surge, the question is — how far can it push the value of the flagship cryptocurrency? Golden Cross Could Push Bitcoin Price Past $73,737 In a recent Quicktake post on the CrypoQuant platform, an analyst with the pseudonym Yonsei_dent revealed that Bitcoin price might be forming an upward structure. This bullish prognosis is based on the growth rate of active addresses, which represents the number of unique addresses showing significant activity on the Bitcoin network. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs See $1.6B Inflows This Week – Is BTC Reaching A New ATH Soon? An increase in the number of these active addresses offers insight into the network activity, investor behavior or sentiment, and general market trends. Hence, observing the growth momentum of these unique addresses using moving averages (MAs) of various timelines can be quite useful in assessing current price trends. In their latest analysis, the CryptoQuant analyst utilized a 30-day moving average (30DMA) and a 365-day moving average (365DMA) to capture the growth momentum of the Bitcoin active addresses. As shown in the chart below, the 30-day moving average has witnessed a sharp spike over the past month and appears to be approaching the 365DMA. According to Yonsei_dent, the Bitcoin price could experience a positive shift in bullish momentum if the 30DMA eventually reaches the 365DMA and crosses it to the upside (making a golden cross.) In crypto terms, a golden cross refers to a bullish chart that is characterized by a relatively short-term moving average crossing above a long-term moving average. Typically, a golden cross indicates the potential of a long-term bull market starting or resuming. Ultimately, this indicates that the price of Bitcoin could be readying for a charge towards its all-time high of $73,737. ‘Bitcoin Is Establishing An Upward Structure’ — Here’s How As of this writing, the Bitcoin price is about 7% adrift of its record-high level. According to data from CoinGecko, the premier cryptocurrency is valued at $68,540, reflecting an over 2% increase in the past day. According to Yonsei_dent, the price of Bitcoin has been forming progressively increasing highs and lows since July, suggesting an “upward market structure.” Related Reading: BTC Held On Exchanges Hits Lowest Point In 5 Five Years, Here’s What It Means For Bitcoin Price However, It is worth noting that these highs and lows appear to be printing a “rising wedge” pattern, which could be bearish for the Bitcoin price. Featured image created by Dall.E, chart from TradingView
Amid the recent renewed upward price movement in Bitcoin, the demand for the largest cryptocurrency asset among short-term holders has witnessed a notable rise, suggesting strong optimism about BTC’s potential for growth in the near term. Short-Term Holders Demand For Bitcoin Rebounds Axel Adler Jr., a macro researcher and author at leading on-chain firm CryptoQuant, […]
Bitcoin’s renewed price performance and resilience during previous roadblocks have sparked strong optimism among investors and traders about its potential for significant growth in the long term, as evidenced by a surge in new large BTC holders‘ balances. New Whales Accumulating Bitcoin At A Fast Rate In light of heightened confidence in the general market, […]
Bitcoin has recently begun to see a major recovery in its price, reclaiming the $66,000 mark earlier today. This sudden positivity in price performance has prompted debates on whether retail investors and newcomers have returned to the market. Although there has so far been speculation about increased retail participation, a detailed analysis reveals a more nuanced picture. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Braces For Volatility Ahead Of Chinese Stimulus Speculations, Options Expiry A Closer Look At Retail Participation According to a CryptoQuant analyst, BinhDang, in a recent post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, the trends among smaller retail groups show growth and stagnation in different areas, reflecting a complicated dynamic in the current market cycle. In the post titled “1 Year Change – From Plankton to Fish Addresses,” BinhDang broke down Bitcoin wallet activity into several categories of retail investors, including plankton (addresses holding more than 0 but less than or equal to 0.1 BTC), shrimp (holding more than 0.1 but less than 1 BTC), and fish (holding between 10 and 100 BTC). These smaller groups were analyzed because they better represent retail investors than larger wallet categories like whales or humpbacks, which tend to be dominated by institutional players or exchanges. One of the key observations made by BinhDang is that the growth in retail addresses is uneven, particularly among the smallest investors. The plankton addresses, representing individuals holding tiny amounts of Bitcoin, have shown almost negligible growth from 2023 to the present day. This starkly contrasts previous cycles, where significant price increases were accompanied by a sharp rise in the number of retail investors holding small amounts of Bitcoin. The analyst explained that this slower growth could reflect broader economic conditions, including the global decline in monetary flows over the past few years, which may have discouraged new entrants from investing in Bitcoin. Potential For Future FOMO In Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle The uneven growth in retail addresses points to a cautious return of retail investors to the Bitcoin market. However, there are still positive signs that the current cycle has room to expand. BinhDang highlighted the trend of retail investors, particularly those in the “fish” category (holding between 10 and 100 BTC), who have continued accumulating Bitcoin, suggesting that while smaller investors may be hesitant, more seasoned participants are preparing for the next phase of the bull cycle. The data indicates that while retail participation is not as strong as in previous cycles, there remains the potential for a final wave of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) that could drive Bitcoin to new heights. The analyst particularly wrote in the post: So, the data suggests that future FOMO waves are still possible in this cycle. […] Based on these observations, I conclude there is still a basis to look forward to a final wave in this cycle. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
After briefly rising above $63,000 in recent days, renewing investor’s hope on “uptober,” Bitcoin has once again dampened this excitement by decreasing to as low as the $60,000 region today. This unappealing performance has led to a CryptoQuant analyst, Aytekin, raising and sharing insight on an important question: “Is it reasonable to expect a final shakeout before the next big move?” Related Reading: Is The Worst Over For Bitcoin? Analyst Suggests Local Bottom May Be Here Bitcoin Next Move: Major Correction Looming? In a recent post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, the analyst explained that Bitcoin is currently in a high open interest zone, having exceeded the critical $18 billion level. Historically, when open interest levels reached this point, major corrections followed. The analyst mentioned that the current market sentiment appears divided, noting: The market seems indecisive in many aspects, with some believing that the next big upside move is on the horizon, while others think BTC’s downward trend remains strong. A common belief is that BTC may need a final shakeout before surging to a new all-time high (ATH). Aytekin added that funding rates, though slightly above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), suggest that long traders are still dominant. However, significant price corrections in the past often occurred when funding rates turned negative, which hasn’t happened yet. Aytekin concluded that, while a final shakeout might occur, the depth of the correction may not be as severe given the relatively moderate funding rates. BTC Price Outlook As Bitcoin has struggled to break through key resistance levels, its recent price action reflects ongoing market indecision. Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin maintained stability above the $60,000 mark, but failed to make a major move to reclaim $70,000. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has slipped by 2.9%, currently trading at $60,485. This decline follows the asset’s brief surge to $63,774 earlier in the week, which sparked optimism for a possible move toward the $65,000 and then $70,000 mark. Prominent crypto analyst Ali recently commented on Bitcoin’s price action, noting that Bitcoin is still trading within a “descending parallel channel.” According to Ali, the asset was rejected at the upper boundary of this channel, signalling the potential for further downside. “We might see a drop to the middle boundary at $58,000 or even the lower boundary at $52,000,” Ali noted in a post on X. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Path To $80,000 “Melt-Up” In Q4 2024 – Details Inside He emphasized that a bullish breakout is unlikely unless Bitcoin clears the $66,000 level, a price point that has acted as a significant resistance point in recent weeks. #Bitcoin remains stuck in a descending parallel channel. After the recent rejection at the upper boundary, we might see a drop to the middle boundary at $58,000 or even the lower boundary at $52,000. A bullish breakout won’t happen until $BTC clears $66,000! pic.twitter.com/yFvS6jxmKB — Ali (@ali_charts) October 9, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has recently seen quite an interesting trend in its key metrics suggesting a significant movement ahead, according to a post by CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha. The post, shared on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, highlights notable changes in both long-term and short-term holder behaviour of Bitcoin, as well as in realized profit and loss figures. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Non-Realized Profits Hit Negative Levels—What Does This Mean for Investors? Key Bitcoin Metrics Suggesting Market Shifts Taha begins by explaining the fundamental difference between short-term and long-term Bitcoin holders. Short-term holders (STH) are traders who engage in brief buying and selling activities, often employing strategies like day trading or swing trading to capitalize on Bitcoin’s price fluctuations. On the other hand, long-term holders (LTH) adopt a buy-and-hold strategy, aiming for long-term gains by holding onto their Bitcoin for extended periods. This distinction sets the stage for understanding the recent changes in market activity. In his analysis, Taha noted a sharp decline in the realized capitalization for long-term holders, which dropped from $19 billion to -$5 billion. This indicates that long-term holders have been taking profits or closing their positions, potentially signalling reduced confidence in further price gains. On the flip side, short-term holders have increased their buying activity, with their realized capitalization rising from -$17 billion to $11 billion. This suggests that short-term traders either take on more risk or bet on potential price increases, creating a more volatile market environment. Additionally, Taha touched on the Korea Premium Index, often called the “Kimchi Premium.” This index tracks the price difference between Bitcoin traded on South Korean and global exchanges. Currently, the index is near zero or negative, meaning Bitcoin is trading at a lower price in South Korea than the rest of the world. This implies reduced buying pressure from Korean traders, who have historically played a large role in increasing cryptocurrency prices due to the local trading culture. A negative premium suggests low demand from South Korean investors, potentially adding to the market’s uncertainty. Net Realized Profit And Loss Trends Another key metric Taha focused on is Bitcoin’s net realized profit and loss (NRPL), which tracks market participants’ total net profit or loss. Positive NRPL values indicate that more investors are taking profits, while negative values suggest more losses are being realized. Currently, the NRPL is approaching a critical $4 billion mark. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forecast: This Week’s Trends And Historical Patterns For Q4 Taha highlighted that crossing the $4 billion threshold in past market cycles has often coincided with significant market peaks or troughs. The red line marking the $4 billion level across the chart (above) represents a key point of market activity. According to the analyst, when NRPL crosses this line, it can indicate a surge in trading activity as more investors either lock in their profits or cut their losses. Taha further pointed out that these points have historically been pivotal moments in Bitcoin’s price action, and the current proximity to this level suggests that another significant market movement could be on the horizon. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
As Bitcoin is currently still struggling to reclaim major highs, a recent analysis of its fundamentals has highlighted a possible buying opportunity for Bitcoin based on insights from the Non-Realized Profit metric. A CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost highlighted this metric’s importance in a recent post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, mentioning what its trend means for investors. According to the analyst, the Non-Realized Profit metric offers a window into the unrealized gains or losses held by Bitcoin investors, which can influence future market movements. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Not Sold On Uptober As Sentiment Remains Neutral Understanding The Current Zone In Non-Realized Profits The Non-Realized Profit metric is often used to calculate the difference between the current price of Bitcoin and the price at which each coin was last moved, without accounting for coins that have been sold. High values in this metric suggest that investors hold significant unrealized profits, which could lead to increased selling pressure as they may choose to realize these gains. Conversely, negative values indicate that many investors hold positions at a loss, potentially signaling a market bottom and a favourable entry point for new investors. According to the CryptoQuant analyst, the Non-Realized Profit metric is mostly in the negative zone. This situation implies that many Bitcoin holders are either at break-even points or experiencing unrealized losses. Historically, such conditions have been associated with market bottoms, where the asset is considered undervalued. This scenario could present a strategic “opportunity” for investors looking to enter the market or increase their holdings. According to Darkfost, what sets the current market apart is that the unrealized profits have reached unprecedented highs compared to previous cycles, even while in the negative zone. This anomaly suggests that the ongoing market cycle may differ from past Bitcoin patterns. The analyst cautions that while this could lead to unique investment opportunities, it also introduces potential risks due to the deviation from established trends. Bitcoin Continuous Struggle Below $70,000 After briefly touching the $64,000 price level yesterday, Bitcoin has faced correction once again, falling back below this price mark—currently, the asset trades for $62,340, down by 1.8% in the past 24 hours. This decline in performance from Bitcoin appears to have also dragged the global crypto market cap along with it, with the overall market cap valuation of crypto currently down by 3.3% in the past day to $2.26 trillion. The plunge has had a severe impact on traders, most especially the ones on long positions. According to data from Coinglass, in the past 24 hours, 59,005 traders were liquidated, with the total liquidations sitting at $176.57 million. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forecast: This Week’s Trends And Historical Patterns For Q4 Out of the total liquidations, long positions account for $130 million, while short positions account for only $45.91 million. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin short-term holders are “likely taking on more risk” amid long-term holders “likely taking profits,” according to a crypto analyst.
Bitcoin has been experiencing some interesting developments in its market indicators, and a recent analysis points to the NVT (Network Value to Transactions) Golden Cross signaling a potential short-term local top. According to a CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost, the NVT Golden Cross—a key metric used to determine market valuation relative to transaction volume—has reached a major level. Related Reading: Is This Bitcoin’s Last Big Drop? Expert Points To Key Indicator Local Top Spotted, What Next? The CryptoQuant analyst revealed that Bitcoin’s NVT Golden Cross has recently reached the 2.9 level, suggesting that the market cap, or price, of Bitcoin, may be outpacing its transaction volume. Particularly, Darkfost explained that a value above 2.2 indicates the possibility of reversing the mean, suggesting that the current valuation could be overextended. On the other hand, a value below -1.6 would indicate that the market is potentially undervalued. For context, the NVT Golden Cross compares the market cap of Bitcoin to the volume of transactions on its network, providing a measure of whether Bitcoin is being traded at a fair value. The signals become stronger when the metric moves deeper into its upper or lower zones. At a current value of 2.9, the indication is that Bitcoin may face short-term price resistance, possibly pointing to a local top at around $65,800, Darkforst revealed. The analyst adds that such levels can gauge potential long and short positions, especially when viewed alongside global chart trends and broader market behaviour. Bitcoin On The Verge Of Major Correction? While the NVT Golden Cross presents a perspective of potential market overvaluation, another CryptoQuant analyst, CryptoOnchain, offers additional insights by analyzing Bitcoin’s movement between exchanges. The recent data shows a significant outflow of Bitcoin from centralized exchanges. This trend of Bitcoin being withdrawn from exchanges is seen across all three key moving averages: 30-day, 50-day, and 100-day. The analyst revealed that such an outflow hasn’t been observed at this scale since November 2022. Notably, a decrease in Bitcoin held on exchanges can be interpreted in multiple ways. Firstly, it often suggests that investors move their assets to more secure storage, such as cold wallets, to hold rather than trade. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin On The Brink Of A Reversal? Here’s What This Key Indicator Suggests This behavior can signal confidence in the asset, as holders may expect its value to increase over time. With fewer BTC available on exchanges for immediate sale, the potential for downward price pressure may decrease, which could set the stage for a bullish momentum in the longer term. However, it can also indicate that traders prepare to exit their positions, anticipating a correction if they foresee market instability or overvaluation. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Recently, a CryptoQuant analyst using the pseudonym “datascope” provided insight into the relationship between Bitcoin price and the Long/Short Volume to Open Interest Ratio. According to the analyst, this ratio is a key metric for understanding market behavior and investor sentiment, making it a valuable tool for predicting potential price trends. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Gearing Up For A Bigger Rally? Here’s What On-Chain Data Reveals The Long/Short Ratio And Its Role In Market Sentiment As investor sentiment shifts between optimism and pessimism, the Long/Short ratio measures the balance of the market’s long (buy) and short (sell) positions. The dynamic ratio indicates the prevailing sentiment—whether the market expects the price to increase or decrease. Understanding these signals is crucial as it can hint at potential price movements and market turning points. To further understand the concept behind this indicator, the CryptoQuant analyst elaborated, noting: The Long/Short ratio indicates the distribution of long and short positions held by investors. A high Long ratio means that investors generally expect a price rise, indicating positive sentiment, while a high Short ratio suggests expectations of a price decline. Analyzing Bitcoin’s historical data, datascope pointed out how the ratio correlates with price changes. The chart provided in the analysis showed Bitcoin’s price trajectory, represented by a white line, along with the Long/Short ratio indicated by green and red lines. The analyst used Red and green boxes to highlight periods of extremely long or short positions, providing a visual representation of when market sentiment reached heightened levels of either optimism or fear. These extreme positions often serve as indicators for potential price reversals. For instance, when the ratio shows excessive long positions (highlighted in red boxes), it may signal that market optimism is too high, often leading to corrections as overly confident investors trigger a sell-off. On the other hand, a rise in short positions (highlighted in green boxes) may suggest that fear and pessimism have peaked, often marking a turning point for a price recovery. Current Bitcoin Market Shifts Using The Long/Short Ratio According to the chart shared by Datascope, so far, Bitcoin’s long positions now appear to be excessive, thereby signaling a potential reversal to the downside. However, datascope mentioned that it is essential to approach this ratio with caution. The analyst emphasized that although the Long/Short ratio is a powerful tool for understanding market sentiment, it should not be relied upon in isolation. The CryptoQuant analyst concluded: Investors should use market sentiment alongside other technical indicators for more reliable signals, as relying solely on this ratio can be misleading. Featured image created with DALLE, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has seen an uptick in price enough to recover from the losses in value from August. So far, the asset has surged by nearly 10% in the past two weeks alone, registering a 24-hour high of $66,000 earlier today, although BTC has now seen a slight retracement, currently trading at $63,508. Amid this price performance, Axel Adler Jr, an analyst from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, has shed light on the potential for Bitcoin to see a bigger rally shortly based on key indicators. Related Reading: Bitcoin Set For Biggest September Gains In A Decade: Here’s Why Bitcoin Key Indicator Pointing To A Bigger Rally According to Adler, a significant shift observed in Bitcoin’s market activity appears to suggest that the crypto market might be gearing up for a bullish momentum soon. One of the focal points of Adler’s analysis is the “Exchange Flow Multiple,” which plays a crucial role in understanding the movement of Bitcoin on exchanges. This indicator measures the ratio between short-term (30-day) and long-term (365-day) Bitcoin inflows and outflows on exchanges. When this multiple declines, short-term exchange movements are considerably lower than long-term ones, which could point to decreased volatility. Adler Jr elaborates on this by highlighting two primary factors that influence the decline of Bitcoin Exchange Flow Multiple. The CryptoQuant analyst mentioned Long-Term Holders Retaining Assets as the first factor. Also referred to as “HODLers,” long-term Bitcoin holders when not actively trading their assets, preferring to hold onto them with the expectation of future price increases, can lead to a decline in exchange flow multiple. The analyst also draws attention to the natural market correction and recovery process. The market typically needs time to stabilize after significant drops in Bitcoin’s price. This stabilization period reduces exchange activity as investors wait for a clearer price direction. Adler Jr noted that a low exchange flow multiple in such contexts might reflect a “wait-and-see” attitude among investors, anticipating a favorable price shift before they re-enter the market actively. Drawing Parallels To 2023’s Bull Market Adler Jr’s analysis further indicates that the current behavior of the Exchange Flow Multiple resembles patterns seen before previous rallies. Notably, similar low levels of the indicator were observed before the major market uptrend in 2023. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks $66,000, But Analyst Warns Against Fresh Longs—Here’s Why The CryptoQuant analyst disclosed that if history were to repeat itself, the current situation might set the stage for the next significant upward movement in Bitcoin’s price. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
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Despite the ongoing gradual recovery in crypto prices, the latest data has shown a shift in sentiment among retail investors, particularly those in the Korean market, who appear to be more cautious. A CryptoQuant analyst named Mac D recently published insights on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, highlighting the implications of this change. Related Reading: CryptoQuant […]