Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade activates Dec. 3, deploying a suite of changes designed to increase rollup throughput, tighten gas markets, and add native support for passkey-style signatures. The fork introduces PeerDAS data-availability sampling, doubles the default block gas limit, and prepares the network for blob-only parameter expansions scheduled for later this month and January. Fusaka is […]
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The news comes just hours after longtime crypto holdout, asset management giant Vanguard, said it would allow its clientele access to digital asset ETFs.
Arca CIO Jeff Dorman calls the current market slide “one of the strangest crypto sell-offs ever,” arguing that price action is increasingly disconnected from both macro conditions and sector fundamentals. Why The Crypto Sell-Off Is “Strange” In a post on X, Dorman notes that traditional risk assets are behaving exactly as textbooks would suggest: “equity, credit and gold/silver markets are launching to ATHs every month because the Fed is cutting rates, QT is ending, consumer spending is strong, record earnings, AI demand still incredibly strong.” Yet crypto continues to grind lower, even as most of the usual bearish narratives have been invalidated. “MSTR isn’t selling, Tether isn’t insolvent, DATs aren’t selling, NVDA isn’t blowing up, the Fed isn’t turning hawkish, the tariff wars aren’t restarting,” he writes, before admitting: “I still have no idea why crypto is down.” In his accompanying essay “The Selling Nobody Can Explain” (Dec. 1, 2025), Dorman details a market that has fallen in seven of the past eight weeks, with only a brief Thanksgiving rally before renewed selling as Japanese markets reopened. The first leg lower followed the October 10 exchange outages at Binance and others, weeks ahead of the FOMC meeting. Much of November’s weakness was retrospectively ascribed to Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s hawkish tone, which drove December rate-cut odds from “almost a 100% chance” to “as low as 30%.” Related Reading: $300 Million Crypto Bet: Kazakhstan’s Central Bank Gears Up What makes the late-November continuation unusual, he argues, is that the macro backdrop has since turned supportive again. Core PPI printed at 2.6% versus 2.7% expected, early post-shutdown labor data point to a cooling jobs market, and December cut odds have rebounded to around 90%. Equities “staged a fierce rally to close November in positive territory,” and betting markets are effectively pricing in Kevin Hassett, a known policy dove, as the next Fed chair. Against that backdrop, Dorman asks, “why are digital assets still selling off on every piece of bad news but failing to rally with good news?” His answer is stark: “I have no idea.” One working explanation is that the marginal seller is no longer crypto-native. Dorman cites Bill Ackman’s remark that his Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac positions are trading in sympathy with crypto, despite orthogonal fundamentals. The comment, he argues, reflects the growing overlap between TradFi, retail and digital-asset investors. What was “a pretty isolated industry” is now deeply integrated into multi-asset portfolios, and in those structures “investments in crypto seem to be the first to go.” The crypto ecosystem itself is highly transparent; by contrast, “TradFi remains more of a black box. And that black box is dominating flows and activity right now.” Wall Street Is Coming Dorman revisits Arca’s framework that token value is a mix of financial, utility and social components. With sentiment at cycle lows, it is no surprise that assets whose value is mostly social – Bitcoin, L1s, NFTs, memecoins – are under pressure. The surprise is that tokens with stronger financial or utility anchors have not consistently outperformed. “While some do (BNB), most do not (DeFi tokens, PUMP). So that’s a bit odd.” Equally unusual, he says, is the absence of “cavalry” buyers; instead, more players are “piling into the weakness, expecting more weakness,” leaning on momentum rather than fundamentals. Related Reading: 30% Of Crypto Market Makers Got Wiped, Mike Novogratz Says On MicroStrategy, Dorman reiterates that the firm “will never be forced sellers,” despite recurring headlines. On Tether, he pushes back against a rapid narrative shift from mega-valuation to supposed insolvency. With USDT roughly 70% backed by cash and equivalents and 30% by gold, bitcoin and loans, he argues that “any questions about their liquidity are just silly,” given the implausibility of 70% same-day redemptions. Solvency risks would require large losses across that 30% sleeve, which he sees as manageable given the parent company’s profitability. Ultimately, Dorman reduces the puzzle to flows and market structure. “There are no buyers within the crypto walls today,” he writes. Crypto-native investors are “exhausted,” and the Wall Street firms that are “coming” into the asset class “aren’t here today.” Until crypto assets can be purchased seamlessly within existing mandates and systems at institutions like Vanguard, State Street, BNY, JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs, “they just won’t do it.” For now, he concludes, the persistent weakness “certainly has us scratching our heads.” At press time, the total crypto market cap was at $2.9 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
On Dec. 2, Vanguard will reportedly open its massive brokerage platform to spot Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, and Solana exchange-traded funds (ETFs). This strategic volte-face ends the asset manager’s steadfast isolation from the $3 trillion digital asset market. For years, Vanguard stood as the most prominent holdout of the crypto space, driven by a philosophy that […]
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Strategy Inc., the firm once best known as MicroStrategy, said Monday it has raised cash and set aside a $1.44 billion US reserve to cover near-term obligations as Bitcoin tumbles. The move came after recent share sales and follows a brief buy of new coins, according to company statements and market reports. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Face A Harsh December: Rising BTC Difficulty, Falling Hashprice Strategy Establishes $1.44B Cash Reserve According to filings and market reports, the reserve was funded by selling Class A common stock under an at-the-market program and is meant to fund dividends on Strategy’s preferred shares and to help pay interest on its debt for at least 12 months, with a target to extend cover to 24 months or more. The company said it did not liquidate its Bitcoin stash to create the reserve. The size of the company’s Bitcoin holdings remains unusually large. Based on reports, Strategy now holds about 650,000 BTC after a small recent purchase of roughly 130 BTC that cost about $11.7 million. That hoard is still worth tens of billions of dollars at current prices, but price swings have put fresh pressure on a business built around holding the asset. Strategy Inc. announced a $1.44 billion USD reserve to cover at least 12 months of preferred dividends and interest payments, funded through its at-the-market stock sales. The company now holds 650,000 BTC and says the reserve will help manage volatility. https://t.co/i4X1J62Qel — Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) December 1, 2025 Bitcoin: Market Reaction And Risks Investors reacted quickly. Strategy’s shares have fallen sharply this year, and analysts say the new cash buffer may calm some fears but won’t erase larger funding and debt timelines that loom over the company. Strategy announces $1.44B USD Reserve and now hodls 650,000 $BTC. pic.twitter.com/FNFivMNQgh — Strategy (@Strategy) December 1, 2025 Reports put convertible debt tied to past financing at about $8 billion, and company metrics show the market-to-Bitcoin ratio (mNAV) sliding closer to levels where management has said it might consider selling coins only as a last resort. Peter Schiff, a well-known Bitcoin critic, took to social media after the announcement and described the reserve as proof the model has failed, calling Michael Saylor a “conman” and saying Saylor is “finished.” Today is the beginning of the end of $MSTR. Saylor was forced to sell stock not to buy Bitcoin, but to buy U.S. dollars merely to fund MSTR’s interest and dividend obligations. The stock is broken. The business model is a fraud, and @Saylor is the biggest con man on Wall Street. — Peter Schiff (@PeterSchiff) December 1, 2025 Other market voices urged caution, saying the move changes how investors should value the company — from a pure Bitcoin treasury play to an entity with ongoing cash obligations. According to reports, Strategy also cut its 2025 profit and Bitcoin-linked yield targets after recent price moves, a sign that management is dealing with a less bullish near-term outlook than it expected earlier this year. The reserve is meant to prevent forced sales of Bitcoin to meet fixed payouts, but holding cash has its own costs and raises governance questions among long-time backers. Related Reading: XRP Is About To Hit A Major Turning Point This Week, Analyst Says Schiff’s Issue With Saylor Schiff’s blistering attack — calling Saylor a fraud and declaring him done — adds a sharp political edge to what had been framed as a financial maneuver. His claims amplify worries among some investors about Strategy’s governance and capital plan, even as others dismiss the remarks as partisan rhetoric. Ultimately, whether Schiff’s accusations stick will depend less on social-media barbs than on Strategy’s next moves around debt, disclosure and any future coin sales — actions that will tell investors whether Saylor’s stewardship can weather this storm. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
After a brief period of consolidation and a bullish uptick to around $93,000 at the end of last week, the Bitcoin price has once again dipped toward the $85,000 mark, recording a significant 7% drop on Monday, according to data from CoinGecko. Market expert Shanaka Anslem has pointed to what he refers to as “the weapon” behind this latest crash: Japanese government bonds. Expert Warns Of Unraveling Yen Carry Trade In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), the expert highlighted that the yield on Japan’s 10-year bonds reached 1.877 percent on December 1, 2025—the highest level since June 2008—while the 2-year yield hit 1 percent, a benchmark not seen since before the collapse of Lehman Brothers. He explained that these rising yields have triggered a significant unwinding of what Anslem describes as the largest arbitrage trade in history: the Yen Carry Trade. Related Reading: Dogecoin Whale Activity Drops To Deepest Level In Two Months With estimates placing the total size of this trade at around $3.4 trillion and figures nearing $20 trillion, he noted that this allowed global investors to borrow Japanese yen at minimal costs to buy a variety of assets, including stocks, US Treasuries, and cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. However, this era appears to have ended last month. The mechanics of this situation are straightforward but impactful, Anslem asserted. As yields rise, the yen strengthens, making leveraged positions increasingly unprofitable. He suggested that this leads to a chain reaction: selling triggers margin calls, which in turn causes further liquidations. On October 10, $19 billion in crypto positions were liquidated, marking the largest single-day wipeout in crypto history. By November, Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw $3.45 billion exit the market, with BlackRock’s IBIT suffering a $2.34 billion loss. On December 1 alone, an additional $646 million was liquidated before lunchtime. Will The Bitcoin Price Plunge To $75,000? This decline has occurred alongside the Bitcoin price correlations with major stock indices, showing a 46% correlation with the Nasdaq and a 42% correlation with the S&P 500. Anslem noted in his analysis that what was once perceived as an “uncorrelated hedge” has now transformed into a leveraged indicator of global liquidity conditions. Related Reading: Is Strategy Buying Bitcoin Again? Saylor’s ‘Green Dots’ Suggest Yes Interestingly, despite the Bitcoin price collapse, whale investors accumulated 375,000 BTC during this period. Moreover, miners significantly cut back their selling, reducing monthly sales from 23,000 BTC to just 3,672. As the market looks ahead, the expert asserted that a pivotal moment approaches on December 18 with the Bank of Japan’s upcoming policy decision. Anslem concluded that if the bank opts to raise rates and signal further increases, the Bitcoin price could test the $75,000 level, which would represent an additional 11% drop for the market’s leading cryptocurrency from current trading levels. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
According to market observers, this week could mark a turning point for XRP as five spot ETFs trade at the same time for the first full week. 21Shares’ XRP fund (TOXR) launched today, joining Bitwise, Grayscale, Franklin Templeton and Canary Capital. Reports have disclosed that ETF inflows have already topped Over $660 million in less than a month, with zero outflows across 10 consecutive trading days. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Face A Harsh December: Rising BTC Difficulty, Falling Hashprice 5 ETFs Trade Together Bitwise recently increased its XRP holdings to 80 million tokens. ETF managers now hold more than $687 million in assets, which represents just over 300 million XRP on record. 21Shares debuted with a $500,000 seed basket and charges a 0.50% management fee. Based on reports, competition among issuers will reveal how aggressively these funds plan to keep buying over the long term. Demand Model A price-path sensitivity simulation run by Mohamed Bangura was shared by analysts and taken up by commentators. The model used a baseline ETF demand of 74.5 million XRP per day, total exchange supply of 2.7 billion XRP, and an escrow release of 300 million XRP every 30 days. Next week is a big milestone for XRP. We will have the first full week of trading with 5 pure spot ETF’s running in competition. It’s going to tell us ALOT by the end of week what we can expect for these funds acquiring XRP for the long term. https://t.co/S3TENqa4PP pic.twitter.com/LQ48QLKcgh — Chad Steingraber (@ChadSteingraber) November 30, 2025 Elasticity values of 0.2, 0.5 and 1.0 were tested over 180 days. The outcomes showed that low elasticity can rapidly drain exchange-held supply, while higher elasticity can produce sharper price spikes as OTC liquidity absorbs flows. That result has many traders watching liquidity statistics closely. Liquidity Pressure Builds Jake Claver, CEO of Digital Ascension Group, warned that private OTC and dark-pool channels may be running thin. He estimated that about 800 million XRP of private liquidity was absorbed in the first week of ETF accumulation. Because much ETF buying happens off-exchange, price action has not yet matched the tightening supply, and markets may see more abrupt moves when funds are forced to source coins from public exchanges. Whales Reshuffle Balances Meanwhile, reports have disclosed changes among large holders. The top 10,000 wallets now hold 51.39 billion XRP, or about 85% of circulating supply. In one day, 78 new wallets took in 77.324 million XRP. One wallet reportedly collected 35 million XRP, another grabbed 3.63 million, and six wallets added 1.99 million each. ???? XRP RICH LIST SHOCKWAVE (11/29/2025) ???? Fresh data shows the top 10,000 wallets now control 51.39B+ XRP, and today’s ledger activity screams new whales + stealth accumulation. 78 new accounts grabbed 77M+ XRP in one day. 246 existing wallets increased balances by another… pic.twitter.com/wpXZMJUQpI — XRP ???? Army | Chacha72kobe4er (@Mullen_Army) November 30, 2025 Up to 44 new wallets were reported to have amassed over 300 million XRP each, while 246 existing wallets increased their combined balance by 17.91 million XRP. Those moves point to quiet accumulation during recent market weakness. Related Reading: $300 Million Crypto Bet: Kazakhstan’s Central Bank Gears Up What Comes Next Analysts say the current setup is a test of liquidity more than a simple demand story. ETF holdings of roughly 300 million XRP are sizable but still small compared with potential daily demand if inflows stay high and additional funds launch. If OTC channels dry up and ETFs must buy on exchanges, volatility could rise quickly. Traders and portfolio managers will be watching order books, OTC reports and ETF filings in the coming days to see how the supply picture changes in practice. Featured image from Trading News, chart from TradingView
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
When Upbit detected unauthorized withdrawals of roughly $36 million in Solana tokens from a hot wallet on Nov. 27, CEO Oh Kyung-seok went on record within hours. He stated: “The entire amount will be covered by Upbit’s holdings, with no impact on customer assets.” Six years earlier, Upbit said the same thing after losing 342,000 […]
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Yearn Finance reported that a legacy yETH product was hit by an exploit that allowed an attacker to mint a massive amount of fake tokens and swap them for real assets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Face A Harsh December: Rising BTC Difficulty, Falling Hashprice According to on-chain alerts and protocol statements, the attacker created a near-infinite supply of yETH in a single transaction, then used those tokens to pull ETH and liquid-staking derivatives from liquidity pools. The incident was first flagged on November 30, 2025, and the total impact has been reported at roughly $9 million. #PeckShieldAlert Yearn Finance @yearnfi suffered an attack resulting in a total loss of ~$9M. The exploit involved minting a near-infinite number of yETH tokens, depleting the pool in a single transaction. ~1K $ETH (worth ~$3M) was sent to #TornadoCash, while the exploiter’s… pic.twitter.com/IXNygpwoWa — PeckShieldAlert (@PeckShieldAlert) December 1, 2025 How The Exploit Worked Based on reports, the attacker took advantage of a flaw in the yETH minting logic and produced tokens on the order of 235 trillion in one go. Those worthless tokens were then swapped for real assets from Balancer and Curve pools tied to the product, emptying liquidity in minutes. Chain monitors and security researchers showed the mint and subsequent swaps unfolding very quickly on the blockchain. At 21:11 UTC on Nov 30, an incident occurred involving the yETH stableswap pool that resulted in the minting of a large amount of yETH. The contract impacted is a custom version of popular stableswap code, unrelated to other Yearn products. Yearn V2/V3 vaults are not at risk. — yearn (@yearnfi) December 1, 2025 What Assets Were Taken Reports have disclosed that roughly $8 million was pulled from the main yETH stable-swap pool, while about $0.9 million was taken from a yETH–WETH pool. In addition, roughly 1,000 ETH—valued at about $3 million at the time of movement—was sent to Tornado Cash in attempts to obscure the trail. The attacker converted fake yETH into a mix of ETH and liquid staking tokens before attempting to launder funds. Impact On Yearn’s Core Products According to Yearn officials and follow-up coverage, the breach was limited to an older, legacy implementation of the yETH product and did not affect Yearn’s main V2 and V3 vaults. Deposits into the affected pool were isolated while the team and outside experts began an investigation. This isolation is said to have kept the bulk of user funds in active vaults from being touched. Market Reaction And Wider Concerns Crypto markets saw selling pressure as the news spread, with traders weighing the risk that comes from combining liquid staking tokens with custom swap code. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Sparks CZ Comment: Sell Greed, Buy Fear Yearn Finance said it is working with outside security teams to run a post-mortem and to patch the vulnerability. Based on reports, teams named in coverage include external auditors and blockchain investigators who are tracking the stolen funds and advising on recovery options. The protocol’s notice warned users about the affected legacy product and urged caution while the review continues. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Analysts pointed to Coinbase's expanding product lines, token launches, and new consumer apps as examples of "transformative" shifts.
Kazakhstan’s central bank has signaled plans to place up to $300 million into crypto and crypto-linked assets, a move that would mark one of the clearest examples yet of a sovereign institution putting reserve money into this market. Based on reports, the funds would come from the country’s gold and foreign-exchange reserves rather than its social or oil wealth funds. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Face A Harsh December: Rising BTC Difficulty, Falling Hashprice Central Bank Moves Cautiously According to central bank briefings and market reporting, the investment will not be made all at once. Initial tranches could be modest — figures discussed publicly include amounts like $50 million and $100 million as possible early steps, with larger allocations of $250 million also on the table if conditions allow. The plan appears to be phased, with the bank watching price swings and market signals before committing major sums. The assets under consideration may include direct holdings of crypto tokens or instruments linked to the crypto sector, such as exchange-traded products and equity stakes in companies that serve the industry. Based on reports, the central bank’s alternative investments arm, which already holds high-tech and financial assets, would manage the placement. Investment Targets And Broader Plans Reports have disclosed that this move sits alongside a wider push to create a national digital-asset reserve fund. Officials and informed sources have mentioned target sizes in the range of $500 million to $1 billion for that reserve. That proposed fund would focus more on ETFs and corporate equity than on simply holding tokens in wallets. An existing state initiative, the Alem Crypto Fund, has already taken public steps into the market. In September 2025 the fund made an investment in the cryptocurrency BNB, signaling that parts of the state apparatus are experimenting with exposure to digital assets. That action is being watched closely by both domestic policymakers and foreign observers. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Sparks CZ Comment: Sell Greed, Buy Fear Risks And Safeguards The central bank has stressed caution. Large price swings in major tokens have been noted as a reason to phase investments slowly. The proposed $300 million allocation, according to briefings, would be drawn from non-essential reserves — explicitly kept separate from Kazakhstan’s National Fund that pays for public programs — which is meant to protect social spending from market losses. Some of the purchases, reports suggest, could be executed through regulated financial products rather than raw token buys, lowering custody and liquidity risks. The decision to structure the program in stages is intended to reduce the chance of a sudden, large loss if markets move against the holdings. Featured image from kursiv.media, chart from TradingView
Binance founder Changpeng Zhao’s blunt reminder about buying low and selling high landed at a tense time for crypto traders. His line — “Sell when there is maximum greed, and buy when there is maximum fear” — was posted as markets showed fresh signs of strain and debate over whether now is a buying moment or another stall. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Face A Harsh December: Rising BTC Difficulty, Falling Hashprice CZ’s Message Meets Extreme Fear According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, sentiment recently climbed to 20, moving out of “Extreme Fear” after a streak of low readings. The index had hit a yearly low of 10 on Nov. 22 and the market had spent eighteen days stuck in extreme fear. Unpopular opinion, but it’s better to sell when there is maximum greed, and buy when there is maximum fear. ????♂️ — CZ ???? BNB (@cz_binance) November 29, 2025 Analysts called that stretch unusually deep. Matthew Hyland described it as the “most extreme fear level” of the cycle, and other traders argued that calling it extreme was being generous. Bitcoin Holds But Mood Is Fragile Based on reports, Bitcoin was trading at $91,780, a far cry from the all-time high of $126,000 reached in October. Prices remain up from 2024 lows of just over $40,000, yet confidence is thin. Santiment tracked online chatter and found talks focused more on volatility and institutional moves than on excitement. The Altcoin Season Index sat at 22/100, a clear sign that traders are favoring safety. Market Psychology Overrules Charts Traders reacted fast to CZ’s post. One user said emotion often beats logic in real trading. Another noted that markets tend to move on psychology well before technical signals line up. That gap between what traders know and what they do was on full display: many agree with the rule, and few actually follow it when prices slip. History Offers A Hint, Not A Guarantee Reports have disclosed that some analysts see a pattern. Nicola Duke pointed out that in the last five years, every time the market reached extreme fear, Bitcoin found a local bottom within weeks. While past stretches can offer context, they do not promise the same result now. Bitwise researcher André Dragosch warned that current pricing reflects a recession-level global growth outlook — the most bearish setting since 2020 and 2022 — which raises real risk for buyers. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s November Slump Could Trigger A 2026 Revival, Analysts Say Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Turns Positive After 29 Days Meanwhile, the Bitcoin (BTC) Coinbase premium finally flipped back into positive after nearly a month of staying in the red. Data from Coinglass on the 30th showed the premium at 0.0255%, marking the first positive reading in 29 days. For almost a month, the negative premium had suggested that selling pressure dominated the US market, with traders and investors leaning toward caution. The Coinbase premium tracks how Bitcoin’s price on Coinbase, a major US exchange, compares to the global average. When it’s positive, it means the US price is above the worldwide average. This is often seen as a sign that buying is picking up in the US, more institutions are getting involved, dollar liquidity is recovering, and overall investor confidence is improving. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
The launch of spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) tracking Dogecoin in the United States was met with muted enthusiasm. Inflows into Grayscale and Bitwise’s ETFs were limited in their first week of trading, despite the hype around the first-ever Dogecoin ETFs. But even as ETF inflows sputter, some technical analysts argue that DOGE might still undergo a strong price rally, possibly all the way to $1, if important support levels hold. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s November Slump Could Trigger A 2026 Revival, Analysts Say Spot DOGE ETFs Off To A Slow Start When Grayscale rolled out its Spot DOGE fund (GDOG) on November 24, inflow volume clocked in at just about $1.8 million on the first day, far below the estimates some market participants had forecasted. For example, Eric Balchunas, senior ETF analyst at Bloomberg, predicted that the ETF will witness a $12 million volume on the first day of trading. According to data from SoSoValue, net inflows across the DOGE ETFs by Grayscale and Bitwise added up to just over $2.16 million over the course of the initial trading week. This shows that institutional and retail investors are somewhat cautious when it comes to investing in the meme cryptocurrency. This is in contrast to the strong opening inflows seen by other altcoin ETFs, such as those for Solana (SOL) and XRP which were launched in the past few weeks. Furthermore, the lackluster uptake has raised doubts about whether the ETFs will ignite the kind of renewed interest in DOGE that some backers hoped for. Technical Outlook Suggests Bullish Potential To $1 Even though ETF demand is currently tepid, multiple technical outlooks point to a potentially more optimistic outcome for Dogecoin. One technical outlook from crypto analyst Ali Martinez identifies key support at roughly $0.08, with resistance around $0.20. This support level harkens back to a time when DOGE dipped below $0.10, before launching into a multi-month rally to $0.50 after the US elections. Dogecoin Key Price Levels. Source: @ali_charts On X More bullishly, a multi-week technical breakdown done by crypto analyst XForceGlobal suggests that DOGE might be wrapping up a long-term corrective phase and positioning for a fifth wave, which is a powerful upward impulse according to the Elliott Wave Theory. That wave could push prices well beyond current levels, with intermediate targets potentially between $0.33 and $0.50, and a longer-term stretch to $1. Similarly, crypto analyst Trader Tardigrade believes Dogecoin has dropped back onto the same long-term support zone that previously led to major rallies, calling it the launch pad for the next big move. His weekly chart highlights how Dogecoin’s price action has repeatedly bounced from this ascending trendline, producing gains of more than 80%, 210%, and even over 440% since October 2023. Dogecoin Technical Analysis. Source: @TATrader_Alan On X The analyst says the pattern is intact once again, and if the support at $0.15 holds, Dogecoin could follow the same structure into a larger expansion phase. Based on his projection, that continuation would give Dogecoin enough momentum to make a gradual 610% climb to $1 by 2026. Related Reading: 320 Ether On The Move: Bhutan Ramps Up Its Staking Game At the time of writing, Dogecoin is trading at $0.15 and is close to either rebounding or breaking below the support. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
According to CoinWarz, the next difficulty adjustment is expected at block 927,360, moving the target from 149 trillion to close to 150 trillion. That is a modest rise, but it matters because Bitcoin miners are already working with very thin margins. Hashpower is strong enough to push difficulty up even while returns stay near record lows. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s November Slump Could Trigger A 2026 Revival, Analysts Say Hashprice Sits Near Break-Even Hashrate Index data shows hashprice is hovering around $38.3 PH/s per day, a touch up from a recent trough below $35 PH/s on November 21. Reports indicate that $40 PH/s is roughly the break-even level for many operations. When revenue per petahash drifts under that mark, some miners face a hard choice as they usher in December: switch off rigs or keep paying to mine. Average block times have been close to the 10-minute goal, with the network recently averaging about 9.97 minutes, which helped trigger the most recent adjustment that dropped difficulty from 152.2 trillion to 149.3 trillion. Hardware, Politics And Supply Risks Reports have disclosed a US Department of Homeland Security probe into Bitmain, the China-based ASIC maker, over concerns its machines could be accessed remotely. Bitmain is reported to control about 80% of the ASIC market, according to the University of Cambridge. That market concentration leaves the industry vulnerable. If US officials impose restrictions, tariffs, or other limits, miners could face higher hardware costs and slower deliveries. Some equipment orders might be delayed or rerouted, and expansion plans would be tested. China Unlikely To End Bitcoin Mining Ban Despite Uptick Meanwhile, overseas, a mild uptick in China’s bitcoin mining has led some scholars to urge Beijing to relax its ban so miners can use excess energy, but experts say a formal reversal is unlikely. Related Reading: 320 Ether On The Move: Bhutan Ramps Up Its Staking Game According to Hashrate Index, China’s share of global hash rate rose from 13.75% in Q1 2025 to 14% in the current quarter, placing it third behind the US and Russia. Historical data from the Cambridge index shows China’s hash rate fell to zero in July 2021 before unofficial activity pushed it back to 22.29% by September 2021; Cambridge stopped updating its mining map in February 2022. Beijing has tightened rules on crypto in recent years, arguing such activity disrupts financial order and can enable illegal behavior. Experts believe those political and policy concerns make an official lift of the mining ban unlikely, despite the recent rise in activity. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView
The monthly XRP chart has entered one of its most decisive phases in years, and one of the asset’s most vocal analysts is laying out a blunt roadmap. Egrag Crypto, known for his long-standing bullish stance on XRP, released a new technical update that breaks down the future outlook for the cryptocurrency into three straightforward outcomes. The chart accompanying his analysis shows XRP trading around the $2.20 region, sitting just above an important Fib support level but still wrestling with momentum, with the monthly candle about to close. Related Reading: 320 Ether On The Move: Bhutan Ramps Up Its Staking Game XRP Must Close Above $2.60 To Keep Bullish Momentum Intact Egrag’s first decisive level is at $2.60, which matches with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level on the monthly chart. The analyst described a close above this region as bullish but the asset would not yet be fully clear of danger. The chart shows XRP repeatedly testing this price level in the first half of the year before breaking above it in July. However, the most recent breakdown in Q2 2025 has now put the price level in focus again. The analysis becomes more aggressive once price action breaks above $3.40. EGRAG identified this as the 0.888 Fibonacci level, one of the final retracement zones. According to him, a close above this level confirms a super-bullish macro breakout, which he summarized with the phrase “we are so back.” The chart reinforces this idea by showing a tight compression beneath this upper 0.888 Fib cluster, and that a decisive breakout could lead to a rapid move into new all-time high prices if there’s enough buying pressure. XRP Price Chart. Source: @egragcrypto On X A Close Below 21 EMA Would Break Bullish Structure The downside scenario in Egrag’s breakdown is equally straightforward. He warned that a close below the 21-month EMA would mean a severe failure of the bullish trend structure. His wording was intentionally harsh, noting that such a breakdown would mean “we are f**ked, no sugar-coating it.” The chart shows the 21 EMA currently sitting around the $1.83-$1.90 price zone, forming the final major support on the monthly timeframe. Losing this level would drag XRP back into a deeper corrective zone and finally undo most of the price advancement made this year. A significant development showed up towards the end of the week that aligns with the bullish continuation Egrag outlined. 21Shares confirmed that its US Spot XRP ETF, which is listed under the ticker TOXR, has received SEC approval and will officially launch on Monday. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s November Slump Could Trigger A 2026 Revival, Analysts Say The upcoming launch adds a perspective that institutional participation in XRP is only beginning. If inflows follow the early strength seen from other issuers, the ETFs could reinforce the bullish case Egrag mapped on the chart, especially if the XRP price is able to cross above $2.60 in December. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView
Conversations around XRP have grown louder in recent weeks as the cryptocurrency continues to trade around the $2.2 region while new Spot XRP ETFs continue to attract inflows across multiple issuers. One voice in the community has attempted to explain why the market is unusually calm despite rising institutional demand. An XRP enthusiast known as Pumpius shared a detailed thread on X that breaks down the mechanics behind the new ETFs and why the real impact may still be ahead. His argument is that the current XRP price action does not yet reflect what is going on behind the scenes. Related Reading: Bitcoin Maxi Says ATH Back On The Table After 40x Derivatives Surge Why ETF Rules Create A Special Market Dynamic Pumpius explained that the foundation of the entire setup is in one legal detail with fund managers. ETF fund managers are restricted from purchasing XRP directly from Ripple or from the escrow accounts that hold large reserves of the token. Every ETF must source XRP through open-market purchases, without private deals or wholesale arrangements. The absence of direct acquisition forces institutional buyers into the same liquidity pool as retail and whales. With the new launch of XRP ETFs, and as demand continues to rise, the circulating supply is now the battleground, and this mechanical pressure is already visible in recent weeks as XRP trading volumes climbed while exchange supply began trending downward. According to market trackers, XRP supply on major exchanges has declined steadily since the approval of the first Spot XRP ETFs, showing that the stress on available liquidity is not theoretical but active. Particularly, data from CryptoQuant shows that Binance’s XRP reserves are now at their lowest point in months, having dropped to 2.7 billion tokens this week. Incoming Supply Squeeze For XRP Another part of the explanation focuses on Ripple’s behavior regarding escrow releases. Although one billion XRP is unlocked each month, Ripple has repeatedly returned about 700 million to 800 million of these unlocked tokens back into escrow. Ripple releases only what it considers necessary to maintain healthy liquidity in the ecosystem, and the company has avoided significant selling pressure since the ETF approvals. According to Pumpius, this means the ecosystem is operating in a controlled balance where ETF issuers are absorbing a growing share of the circulating float, while Ripple keeps escrow output extremely conservative. The result is a slow tightening of supply that’s happening behind the scenes and may not yet be visible in price action but can eventually cause what he called a structural supply shock. When this happens, XRP will not move slowly, but it will break price levels with impact. Related Reading: Crypto Wins Big: Thailand Moves To A 0% Tax On Local Exchange Gains Still speaking of what is happening behind the scenes, Ripple has been advancing several developments that could strengthen XRP’s long-term position. A recent example is Abu Dhabi’s financial regulator formally recognizing RLUSD as a fiat-referenced token. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin dropped sharply this month and is set to post one of its worst Novembers in years, leaving traders and fund managers weighing whether to buy or hold fire. Related Reading: 320 Ether On The Move: Bhutan Ramps Up Its Staking Game Based on reports, the token is down about 18% for November and was trading below $91,000 as markets quieted heading into the weekend. Market Cleansing Opens The Door For Buyers According to CoinGlass, this decline approaches the scale of losses seen in November 2019, when Bitcoin fell roughly 17%, and is far from the harsh 35% crash of November 2018. Reports have disclosed that some analysts view the drop as a market reset. Nick Ruck, research director at LVRG, said overleveraged positions and weak projects have been mostly cleared out, which could let longer-term holders add exposure at lower prices. Technical Levels Take Center Stage Traders are watching a pair of monthly-close levels closely. An analyst using the handle CrediBull Crypto identified $93,400 and $102,400 as the two most relevant thresholds. A close above $93,000 would be interpreted as a modest positive sign, the analyst said, while any monthly finish above $102,000 would be read as very bullish — though that may not happen until another month. Bitcoin changed hands around $91,450 in midweek trade, failing to break a resistance just under $92,000. Cycle Changes And Institutional Flows Based on reports from industry sources, some market watchers think the rhythm of rallies has shifted since the arrival of spot Bitcoin ETFs in early 2024. According to some analysts, institutional participation has altered the timing and breadth of moves. That has meant gains that once clustered at year-end can show up earlier. Market experts pointed out that November is usually a strong month for Bitcoin, and that a red November has often been followed by a red December in past years. A Stalemate Between Bulls And Bears Matrixport described the market as a rare zone of impasse where sentiment, positioning and macro cues are all converging. Reports noted that Bitcoin rebounded above $91.8K during Thanksgiving, but the move did little to resolve the split between bullish and bearish expectations. ????#MatrixOnTarget Report – November 28, 2025 ⬇️ Is Bitcoin’s Thanksgiving Tailwind Enough Into Christmas?#Matrixport #Bitcoin #BTC #CryptoMarkets#MarketSentiment #Volatility #OnchainData#FedWatch #Seasonality #ThanksgivingRally pic.twitter.com/CH39quX6Aa — Matrixport Official (@Matrixport_EN) November 28, 2025 Liquidity has thinned, volatility has dropped, and requests for crash protection have faded. Glassnode added that realized losses have risen and futures markets are deleveraging, signs that short-term conviction is weak. That mix leaves the market stuck between a push toward $100K and a slide down to $80K. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces More Downside After Recent Crash, Data Shows Signs Point To A Big Move, Direction Unknown A bullish hammer reversal emerged when Bitcoin briefly touched the $80K area, giving some traders hope of a rally into the holiday season. Others say weak demand and thin liquidity could push prices lower before confidence returns. In either case, markets have been quietly positioning for a larger directional move, even if nobody can say for sure which way that move will go. For now, Bitcoin sits in a cautious in-between. Investors and traders will be watching the monthly close, liquidity measures and options flows for clues. The next clear signal could decide whether late buyers get rewarded — or whether sellers set a new range. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
South Korea’s largest cryptocurrency exchange, Upbit, is currently under scrutiny by regulators following a significant hack that led to the unauthorized withdrawal of approximately $36.9 million in assets on the Solana (SOL) network. The breach impacted over 20 different tokens and has prompted Upbit to freeze assets on its platform while an investigation unfolds. Lazarus Group Tied To Upbit Hack Authorities are now investigating the possibility of North Korean involvement in the cyber attack. Reports suggest that a group affiliated with North Korea’s intelligence agency, the notorious Lazarus Group, may have orchestrated the hack, which Upbit has described as an “abnormal withdrawal.” This group has been consistently linked to several high-profile crypto heists in recent years, and the US Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) has identified North Korean cyber operations as one of the most sophisticated and persistent threats. Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Ready For A Significant Surge To $50: Key Levels Identified The recent attack coincidentally occurred just days before the sixth anniversary of a previous major breach, in which Upbit lost 342,000 Ethereum (ETH) to North Korean hackers. According to an unnamed government official, this latest hack bears similarities to a 2019 incident in which approximately 58 billion won in cryptocurrencies was stolen, also attributed to the Lazarus Group. In response to the attack, the South Korean National Police Agency has launched an investigation into the matter, although officials have not provided further comments on the case. Upbit’s operator, Dunamu, confirmed that an in-depth investigation into the cause and extent of the asset outflow is currently underway. Crypto Exchange Moves Funds To Cold Storage The cryptocurrency exchange’s CEO Oh Kyung-seok stated that as soon as abnormal withdrawal activity was detected, Upbit promptly suspended all deposit and withdrawal services. “We are conducting a comprehensive inspection, prioritizing the protection of member assets,” he said in a notice to users. Following the discovery of the unauthorized transactions, Upbit has taken steps to freeze the affected funds wherever possible. To prevent any further unauthorized transfers, the exchange has shifted all remaining assets to cold storage, ensuring “a secure environment for funds.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To Recover $100,000: BTIG Cites Key Reasons For Optimism Upbit is also said to be working with relevant project teams to freeze assets on-chain, having already blocked a portion of the stolen funds related to the cryptocurrency Solayer (LAYER). The exchange has indicated that deposits and withdrawals will only resume once full security checks are completed. Dunamu has vowed to reimburse customers for any losses with business funds as part of its commitment to its users. It remains to be seen what additional information the country’s authorities will release in the coming days, as well as potential refund deadlines for affected individuals. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
From net flows to perp funding, the metrics that explain this bull cycle better than “number go up.” Bitcoin (BTC) price movements are now being pulled by off-chain flows and leverage, not just by classic on-chain signals. Since January 2024, when US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched, the variables that explain why BTC rips or dumps […]
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The Bitcoin price has recently stabilized above the $90,000 mark, sparking renewed optimism among bullish investors. Analysts at BTIG have suggested that this rebound could propel Bitcoin towards its ambitious target of $100,000. Bitcoin Price Positioned For ‘Reflex Rally’ Jonathan Krinsky, an analyst at BTIG, expressed confidence that the Bitcoin price is positioned for a continued “reflex rally,” potentially reaching $100,000 in the short-term. Historical data indicates that Bitcoin typically reaches a bottom around November 26, gaining momentum as the year comes to a close. This seasonal pattern further bolsters the prospects for the cryptocurrency in the coming weeks. Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) Ready For A Significant Surge To $50: Key Levels Identified Another focal point for BTIG is Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), which the analyst views as a candidate for a mean reversion trade. The firm maintains a buy rating on MicroStrategy with a price target set at $630. The analyst also highlighted that the week of Thanksgiving often aligns with momentum resets for digital assets, reinforcing expectations for a tactical upward movement into December. Reversion Ahead To $50,000 Adding to the optimistic outlook, market analyst Rekt Capital recently mentioned that if the Bitcoin price can reclaim its position above the $94,180 mark, it would flip the 2025 yearly candle into a green one, substantiating theories of a potential rally for the leading cryptocurrency in the waning days of the year. However, Bitcoin must navigate certain hurdles to sustain this momentum. Rekt noted that for Bitcoin to build on its current prospects and approach the Macro downtrend line, it would require a weekly close above approximately $93,500, turning that level into support, similar to patterns observed in previous green cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Future: The Polarized Predictions Between Bulls And Bears—Who Will Prevail? At the same time, Mike McGlone, an analyst at Bloomberg, has voiced concerns on social media regarding the Bitcoin price trajectory for the coming days. He suggested that a typical reversion to around $50,000 might be in the books now, emphasizing Bitcoin’s close correlation with the S&P 500. McGlone pointed out that the S&P 500’s 120-day volatility was at its lowest year-end level since 2017, indicating potential headwinds for Bitcoin. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin may be closing in on a new all-time high after moves in the derivatives market and fresh buying from large holders, according to market watchers and on-chain data. Related Reading: Crypto Wins Big: Thailand Moves To A 0% Tax On Local Exchange Gains Max Keiser, a long-time Bitcoin advocate, pointed to a filing by Nasdaq to increase options limits for BlackRock’s IBIT to 1 million contracts — a jump that represents roughly a 40x expansion from prior levels — as a key development that could remove barriers to bigger institutional flows. Options Market Expands Significantly According to Nasdaq paperwork and public commentary, the previous 25,000 contract cap had been seen by some as too small for rising volume. Market experts argued that earlier limits were “discriminatorily small” and suggested that 400,000 contracts would be a more reasonable baseline given current demand. Some described the change as a move that could place IBIT into a mega-cap derivatives category, unlocking follow-on effects for how banks and funds structure exposure to bitcoin. I first explained this in 2017: Now that BTC derivatives market was just expanded by 40x New ATH’s are in play. **November 2, 2017** Max Keiser first discussed Bitcoin market makers needing to expand their inventory to support higher prices in this X post: “Wall St traders… https://t.co/aBQ5DdSDay — Max Keiser (@maxkeiser) November 27, 2025 Banks And Market Makers React Market makers will be able to hedge larger positions without hitting the old size wall, which can lower spreads and deepen available liquidity. Based on reports, that also means banks can build structured notes that use IBIT as a reference without tripping existing risk caps — and JPMorgan is reportedly preparing Bitcoin-backed structured notes that would track BlackRock IBIT. Those products could channel steady, institutional flows into the market rather than one-off spikes. On-Chain Buyers Step In According to Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score by cohort, holders of 10,000 BTC or more have flipped to net accumulation and now show a score of 0.8, signaling strong buying. The 1,000 to 10,000 BTC group has also turned positive for the first time since September, while the 100 to 1,000 BTC cohort has been in active accumulation since October and continued buying through recent declines. Even retail holders with less than 1 BTC are showing their strongest accumulation since July. Price Action And Value Zones Bitcoin’s price behavior supports the buying narrative. The token fell into the low $80,000 area that served as support in May and then climbed back above $90,000 quickly, which many traders took as a sign that the market sees value in the $80,000 zone. Based on reports, the average cost basis for US spot bitcoin ETFs was near $82,000, and that figure has been cited as a reason institutions found the dip attractive. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces More Downside After Recent Crash, Data Shows Market Risks And Short-Term Noise Keiser had warned previously that when size limits blocked hedging, the market would be prone to pullbacks — and some analysts say that is part of the reason for recent volatility. Expanding the options cap allows volume sellers to enter more smoothly, which could reduce erratic swings but will not erase market risk. Price spikes are still possible and downside moves remain a real threat if flows slow or macro conditions shift. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
Cathie Wood, founder and CEO of ARK Invest, reiterated a bold forecast that Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million by 2030. Related Reading: Crypto Wins Big: Thailand Moves To A 0% Tax On Local Exchange Gains According to a recent webinar, she argued that the current downturn is a pause rather than the end of the cycle and said Bitcoin is only halfway through its four-year rhythm. Her stance comes as market swings have erased large sums and pushed out many investors. Liquidity Flows And Fed Timing Reports have disclosed that roughly $70 billion has already returned to financial markets since a brief US government funding gap ended, and ARK estimates as much as $300 billion could follow as the Treasury General Account is refilled. Wood tied that potential return of cash to moves in central bank policy, noting that the Federal Reserve is expected to end its quantitative tightening program on December 1. She said that easing liquidity could lift both Bitcoin and stocks tied to artificial intelligence. In this recent webinar, I discuss why the liquidity squeeze that has hit #AI and #crypto will reverse in the next few weeks, something the markets seemed to buy, and why AI is not in a bubble. The 123% increase noted below was in Palantir’s US commercial business last qtr. Watch… https://t.co/GdBZtEQcxM — Cathie Wood (@CathieDWood) November 26, 2025 Palantir’s US commercial revenue was highlighted during the talk, with a reported 123% increase last quarter used as an example of real business gains backing some market bets. Based on reports, Wood rejects the idea that gains in the AI sector are purely speculative, and she expects renewed money flows to help risk assets rebound. Stablecoins And Gold In Play According to ARK analysts, stablecoins have captured some of the transactional demand that once favored Bitcoin. At the same time, gold has shown solid returns this year, which the team says offsets part of the shift away from crypto for certain uses. That mix, they argue, changes how capital might move when liquidity returns. Broader Bullish Views From Market Names Several well-known investors continue to project high price targets for Bitcoin. According to public statements, Tom Lee of Fundstrat has said Bitcoin could hit $250,000 by 2025, pointing to supply limits and demand patterns. Venture capitalist Chamath Palihapitiya has floated targets in the range of $500,000 to $1,000,000, citing Bitcoin as a shelter in turbulent times. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces More Downside After Recent Crash, Data Shows Raoul Pal, the former Wall Street executive and founder of Real Vision, has also advocated for similar six-figure ranges driven by adoption and institutional interest. These voices are included to show the range of long-term expectations among prominent market watchers. Cathie Wood thinks that Bitcoin could reach $1.5 million by 2030, while arguing the current dip is temporary and that the cycle has more to run. Returning liquidity and growing adoption could drive prices sharply higher, according to ARK Invest’s analysis. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
According to reports, the government of Bhutan moved 320 Ethereum (ETH) into staking on November 27, 2025. The transaction was routed through Figment.io, an institutional staking provider. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces More Downside After Recent Crash, Data Shows At the time of the move, the Ether was valued at about $970,000. The transfer is being watched in both crypto and policy circles because it links a sovereign treasury to active participation in a public blockchain. Details Of The Staking Move Onchain Lens say the 320 ETH created 10 new validators, matching the network rule that each validator requires 32 ETH. The payment and validator setup were recorded onchain and were visible to blockchain trackers shortly after the move. This is Bhutan’s largest ETH action since May 2025, when the nation moved 570 ETH to a Binance wallet, based on earlier disclosures. The Royal Government of Bhutan sent 320 $ETH, worth $920.8K, for staking into #ETH2.0 @Figment_io.https://t.co/q4dW3qJBT5 pic.twitter.com/qo0evHxthf — Onchain Lens (@OnchainLens) November 27, 2025 Beyond Treasury Management Observers note Bhutan is not only holding crypto as an asset. By staking ETH, the country is helping to secure the Ethereum network and earning rewards that come from validator participation. Reports have disclosed the move also ties into national plans to shift parts of its digital identity project from Polygon to Ethereum. That plan would make the chain more than a place to park funds; it could become part of public infrastructure. What It Means For Bhutan Bhutan is already known to hold a sizeable amount of Bitcoin. Public data and media reporting put the country’s Bitcoin reserves at about 6,154 BTC, making Bitcoin the primary reserve asset. Staking ETH, even at a smaller scale compared with those holdings, signals that Bhutan is experimenting with using crypto not just for investment but as a tool for state services and network involvement. The action was described by some analysts as an example of a small state testing new financial and technical models. On Liquidity And Rewards When ETH is staked it becomes illiquid for a period tied to network rules. That means the staked tokens cannot be used for immediate spending or trading. At the same time, validators earn rewards that may add modest income to a state treasury. The trade-offs are clear: more participation in protocol security, less short-term flexibility in asset use. Several commentators asked whether sovereign staking will affect how other small nations treat crypto reserves. Related Reading: Crypto Wins Big: Thailand Moves To A 0% Tax On Local Exchange Gains Broader Crypto Context On the world stage the amount is modest, but the move is symbolic. Sovereign actors rarely operate validators on major smart-contract chains. This step was noticed because it ties public services and reserve management to one blockchain. Regulators, market watchers, and blockchain developers have been monitoring the transaction and related policy moves to see whether similar steps might follow elsewhere. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
For two centuries, factories chased cheap hands and dense ports. Today, miners roll into windy plateaus and hydro spillways, asking a simpler question: where are the cheapest wasted watts? When computing can move to energy rather than energy to people, the map tilts. Heavy industry has always chased cheap energy, but it still needed bodies […]
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On Nov. 26, Nasdaq’s International Securities Exchange quietly triggered one of the most important developments in Bitcoin’s financial integration. The trading platform asked the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to raise the position limit on BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) options from 250,000 contracts to one million. On the surface, the proposal looks procedural. […]
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As the Bitcoin price exhibits signs of recovery, climbing back above $90,000, the cryptocurrency community finds itself sharply divided. Some analysts believe this movement is merely a relief rally preceding another downturn, while others maintain that a bull market is still in play despite a recent 30% correction. Current Data Suggests No Cycle Top Market analyst OxChain went on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), focusing on on-chain data to shed light on the current market dynamics and what investors might expect in the near future. He argues that the recent downturn does not exhibit characteristics typical of a cycle top. In October, Bitcoin reached the mid-$120,000 range before experiencing a subsequent decline of approximately 35%. Notably, this drop transpired without the hype, fervor, or speculation that usually accompany a market peak. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Climbs Back To $91,000: Is The Decline Over? Key Levels To Watch The loss of nearly $1 trillion in market value underscores the underlying challenges. As Ethereum (ETH) and mid-cap cryptocurrencies simultaneously declined, there wasn’t an evident frenzy of speculation driving the downturn. Instead, OxChain attributes the decline primarily to a drop in demand. A slowdown in stablecoin creation and diminished inflows from exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have led to reduced buying activity. Derivatives traders have also stepped back, with funding conditions softening and open interest unwinding. With market expectations recently leaning toward a potential interest rate cut in December, many buyers have opted to remain on the sidelines, preferring not to chase riskier assets. This hesitancy has led to a “fragile liquidity environment,” the analyst asserted. OxChain notes that even medium-sized orders can cause price changes of several percentage points due to the scarcity of resting bids. An examination of order book snapshots reveals that market depth has been waning during active trading periods, leading to a scenario where the market appears to be “running on fumes.” Bitcoin Market Struggles Without Conviction The situation in the derivatives market further supports this cautious outlook. Volatility has risen, with traders now leaning toward protective measures rather than building long positions. Interestingly, interest in futures contracts has decreased even amid small relief rallies, indicating that many traders are hesitant to take on larger positions. OxChain highlights a crucial trend: without leveraged conviction, market trends often struggle to gain momentum. On-chain data shows a more cautious sentiment among investors rather than outright fear. While the coin days destroyed (CDD) metric has risen due to older coins moving, much of the long-held Bitcoin remains with patient holders who are not in a rush to sell. Related Reading: Metaplanet In Jeopardy: Bitcoin Needs To Surpass $108,000 By December 18 To Prevent New Crisis Furthermore, the adjusted spent output profit ratio (aSOPR), hovering near 1, signals that there is neither extensive profit-taking nor widespread panic selling taking place. The analyst identified that the majority of selling activity has come from mid-term holders, contributing to a muted and indecisive market flow. Additionally, institutional investors remained relatively inactive throughout November. Significant outflows were reported in both Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, which further contributed to the current state of the market. OxChain concluded his analysis by saying: The broader bullish narrative isn’t gone, but the near-term setup is fragile. Until a strong catalyst appears, expect a wandering market that drifts, chops, and tests lower levels. When writing, the leading cryptocurrency was trading just above the $91,550 level, recording a 4% price recovery in the 24-hour time frame. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Thailand has officially adopted a new tax-rule giving a 0% personal income tax rate on capital gains from cryptocurrency trades — but only under certain conditions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces More Downside After Recent Crash, Data Shows According to regulation Ministerial Regulation No. 399 (MR 399), profits earned from selling or transferring cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin via exchanges, brokers, or dealers licensed by the Securities and Exchange Commission of Thailand (SEC) will be tax-free from January 1, 2025 until December 31, 2029. What The 0% Tax Means Under the new scheme, individual investors who trade crypto through SEC-licensed platforms don’t pay personal income tax on any gains. The exemption applies only if the trade is done on a local approved exchange, broker, or dealer. FACT: THAILAND NOW OFFERS 0% CAPITAL GAINS TAX ON #BITCOIN TRADED ON NATIONAL EXCHANGES GLOBAL GAME THEORY AT WORK ✨ pic.twitter.com/8rf21xJxKT — The Bitcoin Historian (@pete_rizzo_) November 26, 2025 Regular income tax rules apply to the same type of income for taxpayers who participate in foreign/unlicensed exchange activity, as well as those who generate crypto income from mining, staking and/or airdrops. The publication of this regulation in the Royal Gazette on September 5th 2025 makes it official and enforceable by law. Reaction to this regulation was also positive from both officials and investors: an official statement indicates the primary purpose of creating this regulation was to provide incentives for current and future traders to use local regulated exchanges as opposed to using foreign/unregulated exchanges. They hope this will strengthen Thailand’s financial system and bring more transparency into crypto trades. Some analysts expect the policy to draw both local and international interest in Thailand’s licensed exchanges. The government seems to try making its digital-asset sector more competitive while ensuring regulatory compliance. What Investors Should Know To benefit from 0% tax, trades must go through valid, licensed channels. Gains from outside platforms or unapproved services don’t qualify. Accurate records of purchase and sale, including dates and exchange receipts, are vital to prove eligibility if asked by tax authorities. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whale Reenters ETH Market, Fires Off A $44-M Long The exemption runs only until December 31, 2029. After that date, the law will need review or renewal. So traders thinking long-term should consider what might happen after 2029. This policy shift represents a significant signal from Bangkok to both domestic and global crypto players. It makes compliant crypto trading cheaper — maybe more attractive — while drawing a clearer line between regulated and unregulated channels. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz says the October 10th crash in crypto was far more than a routine shakeout, claiming that roughly a third of market makers in parts of the ecosystem were effectively wiped out. “We had a flash crash and it did a lot of damage to the fabric of the market,” Novogratz told Anthony Scaramucci on the first-ever episode of “All Things Markets,” recorded November 26. “Even on Hyperliquid, the market makers, you know, 30 percent of them went out of business. Got zeroed.” Scaramucci framed the last 20 trading days as another brutal reminder of crypto’s structural volatility. “I know I have a trap door on my portfolio,” he said. “Once in a while I’ll be walking across the living room feeling beautiful about myself. And then, boom, a trap door opens and I have fallen into the basement of the house.” Related Reading: Will Crypto Explode If Kevin Hassett Takes Over The Fed In 2026? According to Novogratz, this particular trap door opened at Binance. “It started really by, you know, at Binance, they had an oracle which set price misfunction,” he said. That error hit a synthetic stablecoin and “created a cascade where people were getting stopped out because there was the wrong price.” The dislocation then bled into levered perpetual markets “like Hyperliquid, like Uniswap,” where “as prices went down, people started getting liquidated.” He argued that the way crypto participants use leverage turned a technical glitch into a systemic event. “What people don’t understand about crypto is that the crypto investor doesn’t play for 10, 11, 12 percent returns,” he said. “Crypto investor call themselves degens with pride. They want to turn one into 15. And so they trade a very volatile asset with a lot of leverage.” Perpetual futures make that leverage particularly dangerous for liquidity providers. “Perpetual futures are not normal futures,” Novogratz said, crediting “the genius that Arthur Hayes and his group of people” for a design where “as longs get liquidated, they’re paired off against shorts.” In a fast collapse, “you could be short and you lose your short position. Well, if you’re long on another exchange against that short position, you’re shit out of luck. And that happened to a lot of market makers.” Will The Crypto Market Recover? The result, he said, was a sharp loss of liquidity and retail capital. “We lost a lot of liquidity in the market. We lost a lot of retail punters who lost their stack,” he noted, adding that after such a wipeout “it takes a while for Humpty Dumpty to get put back together again.” Novogratz said he initially expected higher levels to hold. “I actually, to be fair, thought we were going to hold at higher levels at $90,000,” he admitted. “And we went all the way to $80,000. $80,000 was a maximum pain point… Got to $1.80 on XRP. We got to $125 on Solana. Real pain points.” He links the subsequent rebound to macro tailwinds, not healed sentiment. “Now we bounce up. We bounce because of the Fed. But we’re not out of the woods,” he said. “I do think Bitcoin will climb back towards $100,000 by the end of the year, but there’ll be sellers waiting there. We’ve done some medium-term damage to the psychology of the market.” Related Reading: Crypto Has Entered Late-Cycle Territory, Says Global Liquidity Veteran On the spot side, he highlighted massive profit-taking by early holders against ETF-driven inflows. “We had one $9 billion seller,” he said. “That’s one-third of all of IBIT’s flows of the year.” As US wealth channels move “from a zero weighting to a 3 to 4 percent weighting” in Bitcoin, that “was met with OG sellers.” “In the long run, that’s healthy,” he said. “In the short run, that’s painful.” Novogratz also argued that crypto is being repriced as a real business ecosystem rather than a pure story. “It’s a transition from just being a story — ‘we’re the most important industry… we’re going to decentralize the world’ — to ‘show me what crypto actually does,’” he said. “Some businesses are making money. Some businesses aren’t. There are some token ecosystems that make common sense to an investor and there’s some that all feel like they’re just an association.” Overlaying it all is a macro backdrop he views as increasingly supportive. He called the Fed’s recent signals and plans to ease bank cash requirements in repo “a monstrous liquidity boom that’s coming,” adding that “they’re going to bring rates down to 2 percent in the next 16 months” and that inflation will “creep higher,” implying negative real rates. For crypto, the message is double-edged: structurally de-levered, with fewer market makers and wounded sentiment, but still tied to a global liquidity cycle that Novogratz believes is turning in its favor — once Humpty Dumpty gets put back together again. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $91,115. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com