Crypto analyst Willy Woo recently explained what needs to happen for Bitcoin to continue its bull run. The flagship crypto has been on a decline for a while now and has failed to make a significant run since hitting its current all-time high (ATH) of $73,750 in March earlier this year. What Needs To Happen […]
An analyst explained that Bitcoin has historically seen recovery from bearish phases like the one the cryptocurrency is going through. Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Show Miner Capitulation Is Ongoing In a new post on X, analyst Willy Woo has discussed the relevance of the Bitcoin hashrate to the asset’s price recovery. The “hashrate” refers to a […]
Bitcoin price failed to climb above the $66,500 resistance. BTC is again moving lower and might decline below the $64,600 support zone. Bitcoin started a fresh decline from the $66,500 resistance level. The price is trading below $65,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at $65,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair could extend losses if there is a clear move below the $64,600 and $64,200 support levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Rejection Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $65,000 level. BTC climbed above the $65,500 and $66,200 levels. However, the bears were active near the $66,500 zone. A high was formed at $66,444 and the price started another decline. There was a move below the $65,500 and $65,400 support levels. The price dipped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $64,050 swing low to the $66,444 high. Besides, there was a break below a connecting bullish trend line with support at $65,250 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair The price tested the $64,600 support zone and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $64,050 swing low to the $66,444 high. Bitcoin is now trading below $65,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If there is another upward move, the price might face resistance near the $65,250 level. The first major resistance could be $65,500. The next key resistance could be $66,000. A clear move above the $66,000 resistance might start a steady increase and send the price higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $66,500 resistance. Any more gains might send BTC toward the $67,500 resistance in the near term. More Downsides In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to climb above the $65,250 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $64,600 level. The first major support is $64,200. The next support is now forming near $64,000. Any more losses might send the price toward the $63,200 support zone in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $64,600, followed by $64,000. Major Resistance Levels – $65,250, and $66,500.
The Bitcoin price crash below $66,000 has taken the market by surprise, leading to over $90 million in liquidations in a 24-hour period. But even after dropping so much already, analysts do not believe that the worst is over. In particular, crypto analyst Ali Martinez has said that Bitcoin may still have a ways to go before the crash is over, prediction another 20% decline from here. Bitcoin Falls Below Major Pricing Band Crypto analyst Ali Martinez posted a new analysis on X (formerly Twitter) on the Bitcoin price that paints a rather bearish picture for the pioneer cryptocurrency. According to Martinez, the Bitcoin crash below $68,000 had actually pushed it below an important level. Related Reading: Analyst Says XRP Price Is Long Overdue For Bullish Wave, Here’s The Target The major level of importance here is the $67,890 pricing range, which the price has now fallen below. As Martinez explains, this area is important as the “+0.5σ MVRV pricing band” lies here. It also means that a crash below this level is very bearish for the price, and as Martinez shows, Bitcoin has already fallen below it. This fall puts a bearish motion in place as the crypto analyst believes it may trigger a correction. Now, while corrections are normal, the expectation for how far the crash will go is what is worrying because the analyst has placed a possible $54,930 target for the price. #Bitcoin has dropped below the +0.5σ MVRV pricing band at $67,890, which may trigger a correction toward the mean pricing band at $54,930. pic.twitter.com/zZvswgpUpS — Ali (@ali_charts) June 19, 2024 Such a crash would mean that the Bitcoin price would fall another 20% from its current level. Given the previous crashes, this could be devastating for altcoins, whose prices could fall another 50% if BTC were to crash below $55,000. Navigating The Drop In Interest One interesting development for Bitcoin is the drop in interest that has been experienced this week. For example, the daily trading volume, according to CoinMarketCap, fell 43.5% in the last day along. This brings the Bitcoin daily trading volume to around $19 billion from the almost $40 billion recorded the previous day. Related Reading: Cardano Bucks Bears As Large Transactions Climb To $10 Billion, Can This Drive Price To $1? This drop in trading volume indicates that investors are taking fewer positions. With the uncertainty surrounding the market, this comes as no surprise, given that investors are prone to wait for the situation to improve before taking more positions. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also declined, showing that fear is growing in the market. It is now sitting at a score of 60, which shows greed, a long way from May’s score of 76, which showed extreme greed in the market. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is holding at $65,667, with a 0.77% gain in the last day. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
In an interesting turn of events, the Bitcoin open interest has remained high even at a time when the price has been dropping. This suggests that despite the price crash, investors are still looking favorably at the pioneer cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Open Interest Stays Close To All-Time High The Bitcoin price has seen a decline over […]
Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has regained momentum, bouncing off a weekly low of $64,000 to find support above $65,000, halting last week’s downtrend. This price recovery may be due to another significant investment round by business intelligence company MicroStrategy, led by Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor. The company announced on Thursday the acquisition of an additional 11,931 BTC valued at approximately $786.0 million, further solidifying its position as a major institutional holder of the digital asset. MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Holdings Surge To Nearly $15 Billion MicroStrategy’s Chairman and Co-founder, Michael Saylor, revealed the latest acquisition in a social media post. The company purchased 11,931 Bitcoin between April 27 and June 19, utilizing proceeds from convertible notes and excess cash at an average price of $65,883 per Bitcoin. Notably, the recent purchases increased MicroStrategy’s overall Bitcoin holdings to an impressive 226,331 BTC, acquired at a total cost of $8.3 billion, currently valued at approximately $14.9 billion. Related Reading: Solana Could Face A 41% Crash, Warns Mechanism Capital Co-Founder Saylor’s interest in Bitcoin dates back to 2020, when he began purchasing the cryptocurrency as a hedge against inflation and an alternative to holding cash. Since then, Bitcoin has experienced substantial growth, appreciating around 600% since Saylor’s initial investments. The recent purchase by MicroStrategy comes at a time when market sentiment towards Bitcoin is mixed. Market intelligence platform Santiment reports that the community is “mainly fearful” or disinterested as Bitcoin’s price hovers between $64,000 and $65,000. However, Santiment suggests that BTC trader fatigue, combined with whale accumulation exemplified by MicroStrategy’s latest acquisition, often leads to price bounces “that reward the patient,” as seen in the image above. BTC’s Cycle Top To Reach New Heights Despite the current mixed sentiment in the market, most experts and analysts are forecasting a cycle top for Bitcoin beyond the current all-time highs. Market analyst Crypto Con recently used Fibonacci retracements to forecast conservative and less conservative potential cycle top targets. According to Crypto Con’s analysis, the .618 Fibonacci retracement level has proven reliable for previous Bitcoin cycle tops. Extension levels can be derived by retracing from the cycle bottom to the top of the first move. The cycle tops of 2013 and 2017 were predicted at 4.618, while the 2021 top was forecasted at the 5.618 level. For the current cycle, the conservative target for the cycle top is $106,000, while the less conservative target stands at $161,000, according to Crypto Con. Related Reading: SEC Drama Fuels XRP Rally: Open Interest Skyrockets Adding to the positive sentiment, wealth management firm Bernstein has made bold predictions for Bitcoin’s future price trajectory. Despite arguments from bears that the Bitcoin ETF trade is over and early allocations were driven by retail investors, Bernstein holds a different viewpoint. The firm emphasizes that Bitcoin ETFs are on the verge of approvals at major wirehouses and large private bank platforms in this year’s third or fourth quarter. These potential approvals and institutional interest act as a catalyst for adoption. Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reach a cycle high of approximately $200,000 by 2025, $500,000 by 2029, and an impressive $1 million by 2033. The firm asserts that institutional investors are evaluating “net long” positions, indicating a growing interest in the cryptocurrency. At the time of writing, BTC has limited its losses in the 7-day time frame to 3.6%, resulting in a current trading price of $65,170 for the largest cryptocurrency on the market. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Josh Olszewicz, a renowned crypto analyst, has recently shared critical insights into the immediate Bitcoin price future, employing two technical analysis frameworks: the Ichimoku Cloud and Bollinger Bands. These tools hint at pivotal moments that could shape the trajectory of the Bitcoin price in the near to medium term. Bitcoin Analysis Using The Ichimoku Cloud In the first chart featuring the daily Ichimoku Cloud, Olszewicz highlights a critical moment for Bitcoin as it navigates through this complex indicator. The Ichimoku Cloud, known for providing support and resistance levels as well as momentum and trend direction, shows Bitcoin trading near the edge of the cloud. This is significant because a break above the cloud could suggest a bullish outlook, while falling below the cloud often signals bearish momentum. Here, Olszewicz emphasizes a ‘do or die’ scenario for Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin, as recorded last on the chart at $64,570, approaches the edge of the cloud. “No one likes an ultimatum but it’s do or die here pretty soon on the daily BTC cloud,” warned. Related Reading: IntoTheBlock Reveals Fact About Current Bitcoin Situation Analysts Are Puzzled By A significant aspect of the Ichimoku Cloud chart is the relationship between the Tenkan-Sen (red line) and the Kijun-Sen (blue line). The Tenkan-Sen, which is a shorter-term moving average, remains above the Kijun-Sen, a longer-term moving average, indicating a positive momentum in the short run. Bollinger Bands Weekly Analysis Moving to the weekly chart equipped with Bollinger Bands, Olszewicz discusses another potential inflection point. Bollinger Bands serve as a measure of volatility—narrow bands suggest low volatility while wider bands indicate higher volatility. The Bitcoin chart shows a tightening of these bands around the current price level, which may precede a significant price movement, often referred to as a “Bollinger Band Squeeze.” The fact that Bitcoin is hovering just above the midline (the 20-period moving average) of the Bollinger Bands at $64,238 points to a tenuous balance between buying and selling forces. However, the narrowing of the bands is particularly notable because it could lead to a decisive breakout or breakdown, depending on other market factors and trader sentiment. If Bitcoin breaks below the midline, the next support could be found at the lower Bollinger Band, currently positioned around $51,792, which could represent a significant downturn in price. Conversely, should Bitcoin bounce off the midline and gain upward momentum, it might target the upper Bollinger Band, situated at approximately $76,684, indicating a potential rally. Related Reading: Ikigai Founder Explains Why Bitcoin And Crypto Are ‘On The Verge Of Cannibalism’ The analyst points out that understanding the implications of a Bollinger Band Squeeze could be crucial for traders, as such periods of low volatility often end in sharp price moves. “If you didn’t like the Cloud ultimatum, here’s the weekly BBands,” remarked Olszewicz. Both charts, though using different analytical tools, converge on a similar narrative: Bitcoin is at a potential turning point that could define its price action for the coming days or weeks. The current levels close to the upper boundaries of both the Ichimoku Cloud and the Bollinger Bands underscore the tension in the market. At press time, BTC traded at $65,494. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
The market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock has discussed the bearish situation Bitcoin has been facing that has got many puzzled. Bitcoin Adoption Has Slowed Down To Multi-Year Lows Recently Bitcoin had a great first quarter in 2024, fueled by demand from the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional entities. During this run, the asset surpassed the all-time high (ATH) set back in the previous bull run, breaking a pattern in other cycles where ATHs were only reached after the Halving. Related Reading: Dogecoin, Cardano “Very Bullish” Based On MVRV: Santiment With the huge demand, things looked to be just getting started for the asset, but in the months since the ATH, the cryptocurrency has only been consolidating sideways. In a new post on X, IntoTheBlock talks about the current situation with Bitcoin, which many have been wondering about. The analytics firm has pointed out that the transfer activity on the BTC network has been high recently, as the Number of Transactions metric has set a new record. The most recent spike in the Number of Transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain has resulted from the emergence of the new Runes protocol, which allows users to mint fungible tokens on the network efficiently. “Institutional whales are present, and activity on the Bitcoin network is high,” says the analytics firm. “So, where’s the confusion?” The answer to that question lies in the trend of the New Addresses indicator. As its name suggests, this metric keeps track of the total number of new addresses that are popping up on the network daily. This indicator tells us about the rate of adoption the cryptocurrency is observing. Below is a chart showing how this Bitcoin metric’s value has changed over the past decade. The graph shows that the Bitcoin New Addresses has declined while the price has risen to its new high. As IntoTheBlock notes: The data reveals that this surge in usage and whale activity does not involve a significant influx of new participants. In fact, the number of new Bitcoin users has plummeted to a multi-year low, even falling below the levels seen during the 2018 bear market. Related Reading: Hard To Be “Too Scared Of Bitcoin Price Action,” Says Analyst. Here’s Why Historically, bull markets have accompanied sharp asset adoption as new investors get attracted by all the hype. In return, this influx of holders has helped fuel the rally. It would appear that despite the asset reaching a new ATH, the network has failed to attract new users. This is what has got many puzzled. The slowdown could, at least in part, be why Bitcoin has failed to continue its bullish momentum. It now remains to be seen whether this will change for the coin soon or not. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $65,000, down 7% in the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com
Thanks to the summer heatwaves in North America, Bitcoin miners may begin to record a considerable increase in their revenue. This extreme weather condition is also expected to significantly impact Bitcoin’s hash rate. Bitcoin Miners To See Increase In Profit Thanks To Lower Competition Bitcoin miners are expected to see an increase in profit because […]
Bitcoin seems to be hitting an air pocket. Over the past two weeks, whales have been shedding their digital assets in large amounts. This exodus, totaling over $1.2 billion according to CryptoQuant, has been a cause for concern for many landlocked investor. Related Reading: Analyst’s Bullish Call: Bitcoin Primed For Massive Jump To $127,000 Where The Whales Go, The Market May Follow The reasons for this sudden sell-off remain murky, but analysts point to a confluence of factors. One theory suggests a shift in priorities for miners, the brawny machines that secure the Bitcoin network and earn rewards in the form of new coins. #Bitcoin long-term holder whales sold $1.2B in the past 2 weeks, likely through brokers. ETF netflows are negative with $460M outflows in the same period. If this ~$1.6B in sell-side liquidity isn’t bought OTC, brokers may deposit $BTC to exchanges, impacting the market. pic.twitter.com/oYeKsRqKeF — Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) June 18, 2024 With the booming artificial intelligence (AI) sector offering a potentially more lucrative goldmine, miners might be cashing out their crypto rewards to invest in the future of computing. The allure of AI is undeniable, shared Lucy Hu, a senior analyst at crypto fund Metalpha. The sheer processing power needed for AI development aligns perfectly with the capabilities of mining rigs. It seems miners are strategically diversifying their revenue streams. This potential exodus of miners from the Bitcoin ecosystem could have a domino effect. As miners sell their rewards, it increases the overall supply of BTC in circulation, potentially driving the price down. This aligns with the observed decline in “UTXO age” – a metric used to track buying and selling patterns. A drop in UTXO age indicates increased selling activity, and that’s not a comforting sign for investors hoping to ride the Bitcoin wave. Traditional Markets Beckon, Leaving Bitcoin On The Beach Adding fuel to the fire is the broader market sentiment. The recent strength of the US dollar and a general flight towards “safer” assets like traditional stocks have put a damper on riskier investments like Bitcoin. This risk aversion is further reflected in the net outflows of over $600 million from US-listed Bitcoin ETFs – the worst performance since late April. Related Reading: Altcoin Massacre? Prices Plummet 40-90%, Recovery Stalled — Analyst Is This A Bitcoin Bust, Or A Temporary Hiccup? The combined effect of these factors has been a steady decline in BTC’s price. From a lofty perch of $71,000 just a few weeks ago, Bitcoin has dipped to a little over $65,000. Some analysts warn of a potential freefall to as low as $60,000 if the tide of negative sentiment continues to flow. Whales are unloading a ton of Bitcoin. Is this a fire sale, a big discount to buy Bitcoin, or a warning sign that things are about to get rough for Bitcoin? Investors are waiting to see if this is a good time to buy or if they should get out before the price drops even more. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin price extended its losses and traded below the $64,500 level. BTC is correcting losses, but the bears are still in control and aim for more losses. Bitcoin remained in a bearish zone and traded below $64,500. The price is trading below $65,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a connecting trend line forming with resistance at $65,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair remains at risk of more downsides below the $64,000 support zone. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price remained in a bearish zone after it settled below the $66,500 resistance zone. BTC extended losses and traded below the $65,000 level. There was also a dip below $64,500. A low was formed at $64,050 and the price is now correcting losses. There was a minor recovery above the $64,500 level. The price climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $67,255 swing high to the $64,050 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $65,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a connecting trend line forming with resistance at $65,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $65,500 level and the trend line. The first major resistance could be $65,650 or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward wave from the $67,255 swing high to the $64,050 low. The next key resistance could be $66,000. A clear move above the $66,000 resistance might start a decent increase and send the price higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $66,500 resistance. Any more gains might send BTC toward the $67,500 resistance in the near term. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to climb above the $65,400 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support on the downside is near the $64,800 level. The first major support is $64,200. The next support is now forming near $64,000. Any more losses might send the price toward the $63,200 support zone in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now near the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $64,500, followed by $64,000. Major Resistance Levels – $65,400, and $66,000.
Bitcoin (BTC), the largest cryptocurrency on the market, has again taken the lead in the crypto landscape. However, this time it comes with a sense of caution among investors triggered by macroeconomic data, particularly from the United States. In addition, the resulting outflows of over $600 million from the primary market of the digital asset ecosystem, as reported by asset manager CoinShares, have raised concerns about potential price corrections shortly. Against this backdrop, renowned analysts and technical experts have weighed in to share their insights and predictions on Bitcoin’s future trajectory. Crypto Experts Warn Of Looming Bitcoin Correction Crypto analyst Timothy Peterson, in a social media post on X (formerly Twitter), highlights Bitcoin’s substantial 65% rise over the past six months. However, based on ten years of historical data, Peterson suggests a 90% probability that BTC will experience a 10-20% decline in the next 90 days, taking the BTC price below the key $60,000 threshold. On a more optimistic note, Peterson noted that there is also a two-thirds chance that Bitcoin will finish the next three months with a 50% increase. This projection places the median Bitcoin price path at $65,000, followed by $52,000, and potentially reaching $98,000 by October. Related Reading: Ethereum Foundation Moves $64.4 Million Worth Of ETH, Is This A Dump? Supporting these predictions, technical analyst Rekt Capital points out that Bitcoin tends to form clusters of price action near the resistance range high above $71,600. Historical patterns indicate that these clusters often precede downside moves, leading to lower levels within the range. In line with Peterson’s analysis, this correction could potentially take Bitcoin’s price down to around $56,000, similar to the previous correction observed after its all-time high of $73,700 in March. BTC’s Post-Halving Trajectory On Track? Rekt Capital further emphasizes that Bitcoin trades within its normal re-accumulation box following the Halving event. This re-accumulation phase typically begins a few weeks before the Halving and concludes with a breakout months afterward. The analyst further shared that the current Re-Accumulation Range for Bitcoin is estimated to be between $60,000 and $70,000, with price fluctuations within this range. This phase aims to stabilize Bitcoin’s price, preparing it for the next cycle phase—the “Parabolic Phase.” Rekt Capital suggests that the Re-Accumulation phase can last several months, potentially up to 150 days. Upon breaking out of the re-accumulation area, Bitcoin enters a parabolic uptrend characterized by accelerated growth. Considering the timeline, the market is now two months after the Bitcoin Halving and the current price action aligns with previous 60-day post-Halving periods. Related Reading: This Altcoin Gem Will Overtake Solana, Predicts Arthur Hayes In summary, considering the scenarios presented by the analysts, BTC is anticipated to remain within its established range, possibly experiencing deeper corrections before embarking on an upward trajectory toward further price appreciation and the potential to reach new all-time highs. At the time of writing, BTC has exhibited a recovery in the past hour, witnessing an upward spike after hitting a Monday low of $65,000. Presently, it is trading at $66,800. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows Bitcoin is approaching the “Realized Price” of the short-term holders, a retest of which has historically been important for BTC. Bitcoin Is Close To Seeing A Retest Of Short-Term Holder Cost Basis In a new post on X, CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has discussed how BTC has recently been near the Realized Price of the short-term holders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mining Cost At $86,700: Price To Surpass This Soon? The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that, in short, keeps track of the average price at which investors or addresses on the Bitcoin network acquired their coins. When the cryptocurrency’s spot price is higher than this metric, it means that the average holder in the market is currently sitting on some profits. On the other hand, BTC’s value under the indicator suggests the dominance of losses among the investors. Naturally, when the two are exactly equal, the market as a whole can be assumed to be holding an equal amount of unrealized profits and losses. The holders could collectively be considered just breaking even on their investment. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of only a specific part of the sector is of focus: the short-term holders (STHs). The STHs are the investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. Below is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price of the Bitcoin STHs over the past couple of years: The above graph shows that the Bitcoin price is close to the Realized Price of the STHs. This means that the margin is small, although these investors are sitting in profits right now. Thus, it’s possible that if the cryptocurrency continues on its latest bearish trajectory, a retest of the average cost basis of this cohort could be imminent. In the past, such retests have proven relevant for the asset. Moreno has highlighted in the chart the interactions the asset’s spot value has shown with this level during the last two years. It would appear that during two of these retests (marked with green circles), the coin found support at this level and rebounded upwards to continue the bullish momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin FOMO: Social Media Users Calling To Buy Sub-$66,000 Dip However, in the three other instances (red circles), Bitcoin failed to retest the level and observed a decline. These corrections were from 8% to 12%, and the latest occurrence of the trend was at the end of April/start of May. With another retest possibly approaching for the cryptocurrency, it would be interesting to see which of the two patterns would follow this time around. If a breakdown of the level happens, the analyst notes, “the price could decline to about $60K.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $65,400, down over 6% in the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price extended its losses and traded below the $65,000 level. BTC is showing bearish signs and might extend losses below the $64,600 level. Bitcoin remained in a bearish zone and traded below $65,000. The price is trading below $66,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a connecting trend line forming with resistance at $67,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair could continue to move down and even trade below the $64,500 support zone. Bitcoin Price Extends Its Decline Bitcoin price struggled to recover above the $66,500 resistance zone. BTC remained in a bearish zone and started a fresh decline from the $67,256 high. There was a move below the $66,500 level. There was a clear move below the $65,500 and $65,000 support levels. Finally, the price tested $64,600. A low was formed at $64,611 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a minor increase above the $65,000 level. The price climbed above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $67,256 swing high to the $64,611 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $66,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a connecting trend line forming with resistance at $67,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. On the upside, the price is facing resistance near the $66,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $67,256 swing high to the $64,611 low. The first major resistance could be $66,250. The next key resistance could be $66,500. A clear move above the $66,500 resistance might start a decent increase and send the price higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $67,500 resistance. Any more gains might send BTC toward the $68,500 resistance in the near term. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to climb above the $66,000 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support on the downside is near the $65,000 level. The first major support is $64,600. The next support is now forming near $64,500. Any more losses might send the price toward the $63,200 support zone in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $65,000, followed by $64,500. Major Resistance Levels – $66,000, and $66,500.
Data suggests the average cost of mining Bitcoin is standing around $86,700 right now. Here’s what history suggests could happen next for BTC. Bitcoin Average Mining Cost Is Currently Notably Higher Than The Price In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about how the average mining cost of BTC is looking like right now. The Bitcoin network runs on a consensus mechanism based on the “proof-of-work” in which validators called the miners compete against each other using computing power to get to hash the next block on the chain. This computing power naturally has its running cost, with electricity being the most notable expense that the miners have to pay, given that it’s a perpetual cost. The incentive for spending capital on mining operations lies in the block rewards that these validators receive upon successfully adding the next block. Obviously, mining expenses are different depending on location, as electricity prices aren’t the same everywhere. As such, the chart that Ali has cited from MacroMicro uses data provided by the Cambridge University on BTC electricity consumption to find out an average value. Related Reading: Bitcoin FOMO: Social Media Users Calling To Buy Sub-$66,000 Dip Below is the chart in question, which shows how the average mining cost on the Bitcoin network has changed over the past few years. As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin average mining cost (colored in blue) had been below the price of the cryptocurrency earlier in the year, but recently, the former’s value has spiked and has surpassed the latter’s. The reason behind this sudden increase is that there is another variable at play when calculating the average cost of mining Bitcoin: the Issuance, or the number of tokens that the miners are minting daily. In general, the block rewards stay fixed both in value and frequency, so the Issuance of the network, which is nothing else than the sum of the block rewards mined in a day, more or less remains fixed as well. Specific events, however, don’t abide by this. They are the Halvings. These periodic events that take place approximately every four years permanently slash the block rewards in half. The latest such event, the fourth ever in the cryptocurrency’s history, occurred back in April. Naturally, the Halvings mean that the cost of mining 1 BTC drastically goes up, as miners only get half as many rewards as before after doing the same amount of work. Thus, it’s not surprising that the cost of production for the coin observed a sharp increase coinciding with the latest Halving. At present, this metric stands at $86,700, meaning that according to MacroMicro’s model, the average miner would be underwater. Related Reading: Dogecoin Plunges 11%, But This On-Chain Cushion Could End Decline Based on the past trend of the indicator, Ali has identified a pattern that Bitcoin has always followed. “Historically, BTC always surges above its average mining cost!” notes the analyst. As such, if this pattern continues to hold for the current cycle as well, then it may only be a matter of time before Bitcoin surges past the $86,700 mark. BTC Price Bitcoin has gone through a drawdown of more than 5% recently, which has brought its price under the $66,000 level. Featured image from Dall-E, MacroMicro.me, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has been on a bumpy ride in recent days. The world’s most popular cryptocurrency has seen its price steadily decline, raising concerns about a prolonged bear market. However, beneath the surface, some analysts are detecting faint bullish whispers that could signal a potential reversal. Related Reading: XRP Whale Goes On Shopping Spree: 27 Million Coins Snapped Up As Price Dips Buying Pressure Emerges, But Can It Overcome The Downtrend? One glimmer of hope comes from the Bitcoin Taker Buy Sell Ratio, a metric that tracks the balance between buy and sell orders on exchanges. According to NewBTC’s analysis, this ratio has recently dipped below one, indicating a bearish sentiment. On several exchanges, the ratio is rising back above one, suggesting that the trend is recovering. This indicates a change in the psychology of the market, as more buyers than sellers are making orders. This is a positive development, the data shows. It indicates that some investors are seeing the recent price drop as an opportunity to accumulate Bitcoin at a discount. However, it’s crucial to remember that this is just one metric, and the overall trend remains bearish. Exchange Inflows: The Other Narrative Another interesting wrinkle in the story comes from Bitcoin’s exchange netflow. This metric measures the difference between Bitcoins entering and leaving exchanges. A positive netflow indicates more Bitcoins flowing into exchanges, which is typically seen as a bearish signal because it could signify investors preparing to sell. However, the current inflow seems relatively low compared to past outflows, suggesting that the overall trend of accumulation might still be intact. This is the other part of the narrative, analysts said. On the one hand, increased exchange inflows could lead to selling pressure. On the other hand, the relatively low volume compared to past outflows suggests that some investors might be transferring their holdings to private wallets for safekeeping, which could be a bullish indicator in the long run. A Cautious Outlook Despite the emergence of these bullish whispers, the overall sentiment surrounding Bitcoin remains cautious. The price continues its downward trajectory, with the current support level of $65,000 under immense pressure. If this level breaks, it could trigger a further sell-off and exacerbate the bearish trend. Related Reading: Polkadot (DOT) Struggles Near $6.30 – Is Now The Time To Accumulate? Bitcoin is at a critical juncture, and the recent signs of buying pressure and exchange inflows are encouraging, but they need to be backed by a sustained price recovery. Until then, investors should adopt a cautious approach and be prepared for continued volatility. The coming days will be crucial in determining the fate of Bitcoin’s current price movement. Whether the bullish whispers can transform into a resounding roar or get drowned out by the bearish undercurrent remains to be seen. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView
Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra recently revised their price targets for Bitcoin in their latest market report, which also initiated coverage on MicroStrategy. These analysts also outlined factors that they believe could contribute to BTC’s exponential price surge. Bitcoin To Hit $200,000 And Then $1 Million Chhugani and Sapra predicted in the report that BTC will rise to a cycle high of $200,000 by 2025 and that the flagship crypto will reach $1 million by 2033. Bernstein had previously predicted that Bitcoin would reach $150,000 by 2025. However, these analysts have now revised their targets and alluded to the institutional demand for BTC as one of the reasons they believe the flagship crypto can reach such heights. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Lists The Cardano Developments That Will Drive ADA Price To $3 In 2024 The research firm predicts that the Spot Bitcoin ETFs will continue to record impressive demand and that the Bitcoin under management could reach $190 billion by 2025, a significant increase from the $60 billion in BTC that funds issuers already have under management. In other words, these analysts expect BTC’s price to succumb to the supply and demand dynamics, considering that the Bitcoin in circulation is bound to drastically reduce as these Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to accumulate a significant amount of the crypto token for their respective ETFs. Moreover, two Bitcoin halvings are set to occur before 2033, further reducing miners’ supply and thereby supporting their base case of BTC hitting $1 million. MicroStrategy To Benefit From BTC’s Growth These Berstein analysts also initiated coverage on MicroStrategy with an outperform rating. They predict that the software company’s stock can rise to $2,890 thanks to its BTC exposure. A rise to $2,890 represents about a 95% increase for MicroStrategy’s stock, which is currently valued at around $1,500. The research firm noted that MicroStrategy has committed itself to “building the world’s largest Bitcoin company.” This has already paid off so far, with Chhugani and Sapra stating that the software company has transformed from a “small software company to the largest BTC holding company” since August 2020 (when it started accumulating BTC). MicroStrategy already owns 1.1% of Bitcoin’s total supply, with holdings worth around $14.5 billion. The company’s BTC holdings are expected to increase soon enough, as they recently announced plans to offer $500 million of Convertible Senior Notes. Some of the proceeds from the proposed sale will be used to buy additional BTC. Related Reading: Ethereum Withdrawals From Coinbase Top $1.2 Billion, What’s Going On? Berstein highlighted how the company’s co-founder Michael Saylor has become synonymous with the Bitcoin brand and that the company’s position as the leading Bitcoin company has helped attract “at scale capital (both debt and equity) for an active Bitcoin acquisition strategy.” In dollar terms, Bernstein noted that MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin net asset value (NAV) per share “has grown nearly fourfold, surpassing the 2.4x growth in Bitcoin’s spot price.” “We believe MSTR’s long term convertible debt strategy allows it enough time to gain from Bitcoin upside, with limited liquidation risk to its Bitcoin on balance sheet.” Chhugani and Sapra added. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, is facing renewed bearish pressure as its price falls below the 1-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This technical indicator, widely used by traders to gauge market trends, signals a potential continuation of the downward trajectory for BTC. As Bitcoin targets new lows, the breach of the 1-day […]
Crypto analyst TechDev has provided insights into the Bitcoin future trajectory. The analyst suggested that the flagship crypto has yet to reach its full potential in this market cycle and that more price surges lie ahead for the crypto token. Not Yet Time For A Bitcoin Blowoff Top TechDev remarked in an X (formerly Twitter) post that the Bitcoin blowoff tops only happen after the four-week Chaikin money flow (CMF) breaks a line he highlighted on the accompanying chart. His analysis suggests that Bitcoin is still bound to make a parabolic move to the upside before it experiences a significant decline. Related Reading: Solana On-Chain Indicators Suggests A Return Of Bullish Sentiment, Is It Time To Buy SOL? Blowoff tops are a chart pattern that shows the rapid increase in an asset’s price followed by a sharp drop in its price. TechDev’s chart showed that something similar happened in the previous bull cycles, with Bitcoin enjoying a parabolic uptrend for about a year before its price dropped sharply. Similarly, based on TechDev’s chart, Bitcoin is again set to enjoy a parabolic uptrend from now to sometime in 2025 before it reaches its market top and begins to decline significantly. In another X post, the analyst suggested that the time has almost for Bitcoin to enjoy its next leg up. As crypto analyst Rekt Capital claimed, this next move to the upside will take Bitcoin into the ‘parabolic uptrend’ phase of this market cycle. Interestingly, this breakout for Bitcoin could happen sooner than expected, with TechDev claiming that in 18 days, Bitcoin will have a chance at a breakout that it has only seen once in its entire history. From a chart he shared, TechDev hinted at Bitcoin rising to as high as $190,000 in this bull run. It is also worth mentioning that crypto analyst CrediBULL Crypto recently predicted that a Bitcoin breakout is imminent. He said Bitcoin would “absolutely giga send” in seven to ten days and rise to as high as $100,000 when this move happens. Bitcoin’s Breakout May Still Take A While Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently stated that Bitcoin’s breakout from this Re-Accumulation range would occur in September 2024 if history repeats itself. The crypto analyst claimed that Bitcoin’s struggle to break out from this Re-Accumulation range is “beneficial for the overall cycle.” Related Reading: DOGE To The Moon: This Dogecoin Metric Just Turned Bullish For The First Time Since 2020 He noted that Bitcoin has never broken out this early in the post-halving period. Rekt Capital remarked that a Bitcoin breakout this early means that this cycle would be accelerated and that the bull market would be shorter than usual. As such, he believes that this lengthy consolidation is helping Bitcoin’s price resynchronize with historical halving cycles so that the market can experience a “normal and usual bull run.” At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $66,900, down almost 1% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Venture capital firm Paradigm has reportedly raised $850 million for its third fund, supporting early-stage cryptocurrency initiatives led by Coinbase co-founder Fred Ehrsam and ex-Sequoia Capital partner Matt Huang. Increased Venture Capital Interest In The Industry Paradigm’s previous investments include prominent projects like decentralized exchange (DEX) Uniswap and Optimism, a scaling solution for the Ethereum blockchain. According to Bloomberg, with the capital raised in the latest funding round, Paradigm aims to contribute to early-stage crypto work and plans to prioritize such projects in the future. Related Reading: Solana On-Chain Indicators Suggests A Return Of Bullish Sentiment, Is It Time To Buy SOL? The latest fundraising comes after Paradigm’s notable achievement in 2021 when it secured a $2.5 billion fund, the largest-ever crypto investment vehicle at that time. The current surge in interest and confidence within the venture capital community towards the crypto industry has led to increased funds focused on cryptocurrency strategies. Paradigm’s fundraising success reflects the growing market appetite for crypto investments. Recent developments, such as the introduction of Bitcoin ETF and the impending approval of ETFs centered around Ethereum, have fueled the industry’s expansion. Hivemind Capital Joins Paradigm In Venture Funding Race Paradigm is not the only venture firm seeking to raise funds within the crypto space. Hivemind Capital, for instance, is actively raising a specialized $50 million non-fungible token (NFT) fund. Hack VC, which previously announced a $150 million fund, is also exploring opportunities to raise over $100 million for another investment vehicle. These initiatives highlight the increasing interest and confidence in the potential of the crypto industry from venture capitalists. While Paradigm faced criticism, including temporarily removing cryptocurrency references from its website, the firm rectified the situation and reaffirmed its commitment to the industry. Fred Ehrsam transitioned from managing partner to general partner at the firm in October, further solidifying Paradigm’s dedication to fostering crypto innovation. Despite setbacks, Paradigm continues to support crypto projects actively. Recently, the firm led an investment round in Merkle Manufactory, a company responsible for developing software infrastructure for the Farcaster social media network. The funding round valued Merkle Manufactory at approximately $1 billion, underscoring Paradigm’s ongoing belief in the potential and value of the crypto industry. Related Reading: Memecoin Fight: DADDY Surpasses MOTHER Despite Insider Trading Activity Allegations Overall, Paradigm’s successful fundraising efforts for its third fund demonstrate investors’ continued interest and confidence in supporting early-stage cryptocurrency projects. In recent months, the crypto industry has experienced a consistent outflow of funds, resulting in a decline in the total market capitalization from its yearly peak of $2.7 trillion to the current level of $2.3 trillion. The dominant cryptocurrency in the market has been the primary driver of the recent price drops. It is currently valued at $66,700 and has experienced a 3% decrease within the past 24 hours. Similarly, Ethereum has also declined, with its price dropping by 4% to approximately $3,475. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin and Ethereum exchange supplies have gone opposite ways recently, a sign that a rotation may be on. Bitcoin’s Exchange Supply Has Gone Down While Ethereum’s Has Risen According to data from the on-chain analytics firm Santiment, the Supply on Exchanges metric has dropped to the lowest level since December 2021 […]
Despite the price crash after rising to $69,000, the Bitcoin price remains in the game, with bulls continuing to hold up the support above $67,000. Bullish sentiment also continues to prevail, with the market still being fairly greedy amid expectations that the pioneer cryptocurrency is gearing up for a significant price jump from here. Bitcoin Can Still Make A 35% Jump Crypto analyst CryptoCon has revealed that Bitcoin still has a ways to go before the cycle top is in. In the analysis posted on X (formerly Twitter), the crypto analyst revealed that the digital asset is yet to reach Level 3 of the Magic Bands, so the top is not in yet. Related Reading: Historical Trends Suggest Shiba Inu Price Will Rally 1,000% To $0.00024, Analyst Reveals When The analyst points to previous bull cycles where the Magic Bands had been fully completed before the top was finally in. For the whole band to be completed, there are four levels in total. However, the current cycle is still only in the 2.5 level, which means there is still a ways to go. The next major level from here is the Level 3 Magic Band, which usually comes with a surge in price. Following the completion of the Level 2 that saw the price reach a new all-time high above $72,300, the cryptocurrency is now testing the resistance at the Level 2.5, where a break is needed. If the Bitcoin price is able to break this resistance, the crypto analyst sees a 35% surge to $91,500 sometime in 2024. “Taking some time to reach it at Level 3 of the Magic bands, but it’s the next step,” the crypto analyst stated. $91,539 target left untouched and unchanged for #Bitcoin. Taking some time to reach it at Level 3 of the Magic bands but it’s the next step. All in due time… pic.twitter.com/Pwimj05ZQb — CryptoCon (@CryptoCon_) June 12, 2024 When Will The BTC Price Top? Using CryptoCon’s Magic Bands analysis, it is possible that the Bitcoin cycle top is still far away. As the crypto analyst shows, even after hitting the Level 3 magic band, there is still Level 4 left to go, which is what usually marks the cycle top. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Predicts Cardano Price Will Rally 370% To $2, Here’s The Timeline This means after hitting $91,500 at the top of Level 3, there could be consolidation before the Level 4 Magic Band is completed. When this happens, the crypto analyst expects the BTC price to actually touch above $123,000 before the cycle top is in. If CryptoCon’s analyst is anything to go buy, then Bitcoin still has another 100% move from from its current price before the bull market is over. The cycle top is expected to hit sometime around 2026, according to the analyst. Presently, the BTC price is still being held up by bulls who have continued to endure an onslaught from sellers. Despite falling 4.3% in the last week, it is still trading at $67,900 at the time of this writing.
The winds of change are blowing in the Bitcoin market, bringing a fresh wave of short-term traders while veteran holders remain steadfast in their convictions. A recent report by Bitfinex Alpha reveals a fascinating dichotomy in investor behavior, with new players chasing quick profits and seasoned hodlers (hold on for dear life) accumulating for the long haul. Related Reading: Ethereum Longs Crushed! Who Got Burned In The $62 Million Fire Sale? Short-Term Surge Fueled By ETF Frenzy Spot Bitcoin ETFs, financial instruments that mirror Bitcoin’s price, have emerged as a game-changer. These easily accessible options are attracting a new breed of investor, one with a keen eye for short-term gains. This influx is evident in the significant rise of short-term holders (those holding Bitcoin for less than 155 days). Their holdings have skyrocketed by nearly 55% since January, indicating a surge in speculative activity. It looks like we still have overhang from last cycle. Short term holders realized price is steadily rising as new players enter the market and Buy #Bitcoin. Hedge funds, Pension Funds, Banks etc. But the price isn’t taking off because older coins are being distributed. We… pic.twitter.com/VxaXozgANT — Thomas | heyapollo.com (@thomas_fahrer) June 12, 2024 However, this newfound enthusiasm comes with a caveat. Short-term investors, by their very nature, tend to be more reactive to price fluctuations. A sudden market correction could trigger a sell-off, causing price volatility. The report highlights this vulnerability, emphasizing the need for caution amidst the current “greed” sentiment in the market (as measured by the Fear & Greed Index). Long-Term Holders: Diamonds In The Rough While the short-term scene buzzes with activity, long-term holders continue to display unwavering faith in Bitcoin’s potential. These digital veterans, who weathered previous market cycles, have shown a remarkable buying spree after initially offloading some holdings at Bitcoin’s all-time high in March. The report further underscores this bullish sentiment by pointing out the minimal amount of Bitcoin held by long-term investors that was purchased above the current price point. This signifies a “hodling” mentality, where investors are confident that the current price represents a good entry point for future gains. Additionally, Bitcoin whales (large investors holding significant amounts) are mirroring their pre-2020 bull run behavior by aggressively accumulating Bitcoin, indicating a potential repeat of the previous market upswing. Navigating The Crosscurrents The current Bitcoin market presents a unique situation. On one hand, the influx of short-term investors injects fresh energy and liquidity. However, their presence also introduces the risk of increased volatility. On the other hand, long-term holders continue to be the bedrock of the market, providing stability and confidence. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Loses 14% In Last 7 Days – Will The Misery Worsen? Bitcoin Price Forecast The Bitfinex Alpha report coincides with a technical analysis-based prediction, forecasting a potential rise in Bitcoin’s price by 29.51%, reaching $87,897 by July 13, 2024. However, the report also acknowledges the mixed sentiment in the market, with a Fear & Greed Index hovering at “Greed” territory. This indicates a need for caution, as investor optimism can sometimes precede price corrections. Featured image from VOI, chart from TradingView
Data shows that Bitcoin active addresses have plunged, but the transaction count has been around an all-time high (ATH). Here’s why this may be so. Bitcoin Active Addresses And Transaction Count Have Diverged Recently According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, the Bitcoin network has been showing a divergence in its activity-related metrics recently. […]
Glassnode has discussed in a new report the reasons behind Bitcoin moving sideways despite inflows into the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Why Bitcoin Has Been Stagnant Despite Spot ETF Inflows In its latest weekly report, the analytics firm Glassnode has talked about how the impressive inflows into the US spot ETFs have failed to make the price break its sideways trend. The spot ETFs, which the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved in January of this year, have provided investors with an alternate means of gaining exposure to the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Overheated Right Now? This Metric Suggests No These funds buy and hold Bitcoin on behalf of their users, letting them get indirect exposure to the coin’s price movements without having to own the asset itself. The more traditional investors, who don’t want to attempt to navigate cryptocurrency exchanges and wallets, have found the spot ETFs to be a comfortable investment option. Since their launch, the spot ETFs have brought large demand for the asset. Initially, these fresh capital inflows helped BTC rise to a new all-time high (ATH), but recently, the asset has been consolidated. Below is a chart that shows how the combined reserve of these funds compares against the other large entities in the sector. From the graph, it’s visible that the spot ETFs hold 862,000 BTC. This is more than what the miners (excluding Patoshi) hold (706,000 BTC) but notably less than the reserve of the centralized exchanges (2.3 million BTC). Glassnode has noted that the cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase alone holds a big part of the total exchange reserve and the US spot ETF balance through its custody service. “With Coinbase serving both ETF clients and conventional on-chain asset holders, the gravity of the exchange in the market pricing process has become significant,” reads the report. The data for the whale deposits to the platform reveal a rising trend until mid-April. According to the analytics firm, a significant portion of these whale deposits had come from the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC), adding to the selling pressure in the market. The whale exchange inflows shooting up may partly explain why the spot ETFs haven’t proven as effective. Another factor behind the consolidation can be the trend in the futures market. The chart below shows that the CME’s future open interest has recently been at high levels. The report thinks this could signal that an increasing number of traders have been adopting a cash-and-carry arbitrage strategy. This arbitrage involves a market-neutral position, coupling the purchase of a long spot position, and the sale (short) of a position in a futures contract of the same underlying asset which is trading at a premium. Related Reading: Litecoin In Uphill Battle: Strong Resistance Might Block Recovery This could explain why the spot ETF inflows have only been able to have a neutral impact on the prices in the Bitcoin market recently. BTC Price Bitcoin has swiftly recovered more than 4% in the past 24 hours as its price is now back above $69,700. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Data of an on-chain indicator could suggest Bitcoin is currently not at a stage where its price would be at a significant risk of facing correction. Bitcoin 365-Day MA Growth Rate Is Sitting Below Historical Overheated Zone In a post on X, CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has discussed about the recent trend in the “Growth Rate” metric for Bitcoin. The Growth Rate basically keeps track of the difference between the changes happening in the Bitcoin Market Cap and Realized Cap. The Market Cap here is naturally just the simple valuation of the cryptocurrency’s total circulating supply at the current spot price. The Realized Cap, on the other hand, is a bit more complex. Related Reading: Bitcoin Slips Under $67,000: Can BTC Rely On This Historical Support Again? The Realized Cap is an on-chain capitalization model for the asset that takes the “real” value of any coin in circulation to be the same as the price at which it was last transferred on the blockchain. As the last transaction of any coin was likely the last instance of it changing hands, the price at its time would act as its current cost basis. Since the Realized Cap sums up this price for all tokens of the asset, it essentially calculates the sum of the cost basis of each coin in the circulating supply. In other words, the Realized Cap measures the total amount of capital that the investors have used to buy their Bitcoin. The changes in the Realized Cap would, therefore, represent the capital inflows or outflows happening for the cryptocurrency. As the Growth Rate keeps track of how changes in the Realized Cap are reflecting in the Market Cap, it basically tells us about how reactive the market is being to capital flows. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 365-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Growth Rate over the last decade or so: As is visible in the above graph, the 365-day MA Bitcoin Growth Rate has been at positive levels since early 2023. When the indicator has green values, it means that the Market Cap is growing at a rate faster than the Realized Cap. At present, the indicator is sitting at the 0.001 mark, which is a relatively high level. Thus, it would appear that capital inflows have been rapidly driving up the price recently. Historically, during periods of euphoria in the market, where Market Cap has exploded relative to the Realized Cap, tops have become more probable to take place. Related Reading: Litecoin In Uphill Battle: Strong Resistance Might Block Recovery From the chart, it’s apparent, though, that the recent levels of the metric, although high, have still been below the 0.002 mark beyond which corrections have become likely in the past. The Bitcoin all-time high (ATH) back in March, which has continued to be the top for the rally thus far, had also occurred when the Growth Rate had surged above this level. BTC Price Bitcoin had slipped under the $67,000 mark yesterday, but the asset has since seen a recovery push that has now taken its price back above $69,300. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
On-chain data shows Bitcoin whales may have quietly been accumulating at the recent price lows as exchanges have registered large withdrawals. Bitcoin Exchange Reserve Has Observed A Decline Recently As pointed out by analyst Ali Martinez in a post on X, exchanges have seen significant withdrawals over the last couple of days. The on-chain metric […]
On-chain data suggests Bitcoin is no longer being used as electronic cash by its userbase as the token’s circulation has seen a steep drop. Bitcoin ‘Velocity’ Has Plunged To Historical Lows Recently As explained by CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju in a post on X, Bitcoin’s circulation has recently slowed down. The on-chain […]
Bitcoin has observed a plunge during the past day, taking the asset’s price under $67,000. Here’s the historical support level that the asset could visit next. Bitcoin Is Now Not Far From The Short-Term Holder Realized Price As analyst James Van Straten pointed out in a post on X, the Realized Price of the Bitcoin Short-Term Holders has been going up recently and currently sits around the $64,000 level. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain metric that keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor in the BTC market. This indicator is based on the “Realized Cap” model for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Litecoin In Uphill Battle: Strong Resistance Might Block Recovery When the asset’s spot price is greater than the Realized Price, it means the investors are carrying some net unrealized profits right now. On the other hand, the coin’s value under the metric suggests the dominance of losses in the market. In the context of the current topic, the Realized Price of a specific sector segment is of interest: the Short-Term Holders (STHs). The STHs include all the investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. Here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price of the Bitcoin STHs over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin STH Realized Price rapidly climbed during the rally towards the all-time high price (ATH) earlier in the year. This trend naturally makes sense, as the STHs represent the new investors in the market, who would have had to buy at higher prices as the asset climbed up, thus pushing the cohort’s average up. Since BTC’s consolidation phase following the March ATH, the indicator’s uptrend has slowed, but its value is increasing nonetheless. After the latest increase, the metric has approached $64,000. Now, what significance does the Realized Price of the STHs have? Historically, this indicator has taken turns acting as a major support and resistance line for the cryptocurrency. During bullish periods, this metric can facilitate bottom formations for the cryptocurrency, thus keeping it above itself, while bearish trends generally witness the line acting as a barrier preventing the coin from escaping above it. Transitions beyond this level have generally reflected a flip trend for the coin. This apparent pattern has held up likely because the STHs, being the relatively inexperienced hands, can be quite reactive. The cost basis is an important level for any investor, but this cohort, in particular, can be more likely to panic when a retest of their cost basis takes place. When the sentiment in the market is bullish, the STHs could decide to buy more when the price drops to their average cost basis, believing the drawdown to be merely a “dip” opportunity. In bearish phases, though, they may react to such a retest by panic selling instead. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could See Next Top At $89,200, Crypto Analyst Suggests The chart shows that Bitcoin found support around this line during the crash at the end of April/start of May, potentially implying a bullish sentiment has continued to be dominant. With BTC seeing a drop below $67,000 in the past day and the STH Realized Price closing in at $64,000, it will be interesting to see how a potential retest would play out this time. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $66,800, down over 3% in the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Retail investors in the cryptocurrency space are exhibiting signs of turning into long-term believers, with a recent exodus of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) from centralized exchanges. Latest data shows user balances for both leading cryptocurrencies have sunk to four-year lows, with analysts interpreting the move as a bullish signal for the future. As investors […]