Bitcoin has managed to record some price gains in the last week following a brutal market sell-off at the start of July which saw the crypto market leader lose 10% of its price on July 5. At the moment, analysts continue to roll out observations and predictions that suggest that Bitcoin may soon pull off a market rebound and perhaps eventually embark on a highly-expected bull run. Related Reading: Institutions Grab Over $5 Billion Bitcoin in a Week: Are They Predicting a Mega Rally? Bitcoin’s ‘Rare’ Underperformance Hints At Possible Bullish Rebound In an X post on Friday, prominent blockchain analytics company Santiment provided some intriguing insights into Bitcoin’s recent price behavior. Santiment stated Bitcoin is largely behind the S&P 500 and other equities in relation to price performance, a development which they described as a “rare sight” over the last three years. As earlier stated, Bitcoin’s current massive price dip can be attributed to a large-scale market sell-off mainly by the German Government who have now completely offloaded their total BTC holdings valued at $2.9 billion. Furthermore, the defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox which collapsed in 2014, finally began the repayment of a $9 billion debt to creditors in BTC and BCH, the majority of which were expected to be sold, thus a prompting massive selling pressure. While Bitcoin showed some resilience this week gaining by 2.88%, the premier cryptocurrency still trails the positive price performance of the equities market on a larger timeframe. For context, Santiment explains that Bitcoin has declined by 19.4% in the last five weeks while the S&P 500 has recorded a 5.4% gain within that same period. However, as this development has been a rare occurrence in the last three years as both assets usually moved in tandem, Santiment suggests Bitcoin may experience a “bullish catch-up period.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Trajectory Remains Bearish, $49,000 Liquidity Zone Looms As Next Downside Target Bitcoin To Challenge 1.5-Month Downtrend In other news, crypto analyst Rekt Capital has noted that Bitcoin is currently battling to end a downtrend stretching over the last one-and-a-half month. During this period the premier cryptocurrency has lost over 18% of its price. According to Rekt Capital, Bitcoin has attempted to break out of this downtrend multiple times including three times in the last three days. If Bitcoin eventually pulls a trend reversal, the market leader may be set for full price recovery reaching as high as $71,000. At the time of writing Bitcoin trades at $58,170 with a 1.69% gain in the last day. However, this mild price pales in comparison to the comparison which has surged by 30.81% to a price of $5,615 in the last 24 hours. Featured image from The Economic Times, chart from Tradingview.com
In what is being hailed as a significant victory for the Bitcoin market, the German government has officially depleted its Bitcoin reserves after holding 50,000 BTC in its wallet just months ago. Bitcoin Wallet Now Empty After Massive Selling Spree Data from market intelligence firm Arkham shows that the German government recently transferred the remainder of its 3,846.05 BTC stash worth approximately $223 million to Flow Traders and 139Po, likely for over-the-counter (OTC) services. As a result, Arkham’s platform reveals that the government’s wallet now stands empty, with zero BTC remaining, as seen in the image below. Related Reading: XRP Price Eyes Colossal 280% Breakout Amid CME Group Partnership Interestingly, data researcher Jay analyzed the German government’s selling activities and found that Germany sold a staggering 42,000 BTC in just one week, averaging 250 BTC per hour over 168 hours. Earlier this year, the German police made headlines when confiscated 50,000 Bitcoin worth $2.17 billion in the country’s most extensive cryptocurrency seizure. The seizure occurred in January, and the Bitcoin was taken after the suspects voluntarily transferred the funds to official wallets provided by the BKA (Bundeskriminalamt), the German Federal Criminal Police Office. This consistent selling pressure from the German government was notorious for contributing to the significant 25% price retracement experienced by the largest cryptocurrency, resulting in a low of $53,500 not seen since February. Sell Pressure, Support Levels, And Investor Sentiment Crypto analyst SkewA commented on this recent development, noting that in the future, market observers will closely monitor the passive flow of Bitcoin, particularly for signs of reduced supply. According to the analyst, this will serve as a gauge to determine if the market has effectively absorbed the recent sell pressure and highlighted the $60,000 level as the current market supply zone, with the potential for a retest of this crucial level. Related Reading: 6,400 Ethereum Mystery Move Sparks ETH Rally Talk Pre-ETF Nod On the other hand, market expert Dann Crypto Trades notes that Bitcoin is currently attempting to regain support from the May lows. Price action has been volatile in this range, and Dann believes that a true higher timeframe reversal will only occur once the “green zone” above $59,000 is successfully recaptured. The analyst sees the $56,500 level as crucial support for BTC’s upside momentum in the short to medium term. Meanwhile, crypto analyst Ali Martinez has identified a bullish sentiment surrounding Bitcoin’s outlook, noting that the accumulation trend score indicates a shift in investor sentiment after an extended distribution phase since April. At the time of writing, BTC trades at $57,600, remaining in its trading range between this level and the $59,000 zone for the past two days. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin price has crashed back toward the $56,000 level after a brief pump triggered by the CPI data release on Thursday, showing that inflation rates came out at 3%, lower than expected. This bearish trend has continued despite desperate attempts from bulls to keep the price up. Even then, one crypto analyst does not believe that the decline is done and expects the fall to continue from here. Bitcoin Dump Far From Over A crypto analyst on the TradingView website, who goes by the pseudonym ‘Luca VIP,’ has expressed bearish tendencies for the Bitcoin price going forward. In the analysis, the crypto analyst points out that the reason for the current Bitcoin price fluctuation is the fact that it has hit resistance at $59,000 following the pump. Related Reading: Cardano Sees 1,218% Spike In This Major Metric, Will ADA Price Follow? As a result of this rejection, the cryptocurrency is currently in a consolidation phase, which threatens to continue from here. Furthermore, the BTC price is still showing sideways performance, even after the Thursday surge, which suggests that bears are still firmly in control of the price. Additionally, the crypto analyst maps out a possible decline trend from here, putting it as low as $56,000 until the decline is done. However, what’s important is what happens after the Bitcoin price hits this expected support level. Luca explains that despite the decline, the BTC price has formed a W pattern, which is historically a bullish pattern. In this case, a bullish reversal is expected that could trigger a retest of the $59,000 level. If the retest is successful, then the crypto analyst puts the Bitcoin price above $60,000 once again. “BTCUSDT may retest the resistance zone at $59,000. A successful breakout above this level could push the price to higher targets, potentially around $60,000 or higher,” the crypto analyst said. Is It Time To Buy BTC? While the market is still reeling from the Bitcoin price dip, some crypto analysts believe that this is a good time to time. Another pseudonymous analyst who goes by ‘RLinda’ on the TradingView website shared this sentiment recently. Related Reading: Spot Ethereum ETFs FOMO: Tron Founder Justin Sun Drops $5 Million On ETH According to the analyst, the fall to $57,000 presents a good opportunity to get into position for Bitcoin, especially as the market has been plunged into fear by the continuous sell-offs. Apparently, the BTC price is headed toward a renewal of local highs. RLinda’s stance is buttressed by the fact that the Crypto Fear & Greed Index has fallen into Extreme Fear, which has historically been the best time to get positioned for cryptocurrencies. If historical trends are anything to go by, then the price could trade sideways for a while before finally finding strong support and seeing a bounce. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
On-chain data shows that Bitcoin long-term holders have potentially been selling recently, something that may explain BTC’s continued bearish momentum. Bitcoin Exchange Inflow CDD Has Registered Huge Spikes Recently As an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post explained, old cryptocurrency tokens have recently been deposited in large quantities in centralized exchanges. The on-chain metric of interest here is the “Exchange Inflow Coin Days Destroyed (CDD).” A “coin day” refers to a quantity that 1 BTC accumulates after staying dormant on the blockchain for 1 day. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Forced Weak Hands Into Largest Loss-Taking Since 2022 Lows: Report When a coin that had been sitting still inside a wallet is finally moved, its coin days counter naturally resets back to zero, and the coin days it had been carrying before the move are said to be “destroyed.” The CDD keeps track of the total amount of coin days being reset in this manner across the network. In the context of the current topic, though, the general CDD isn’t the one of focus, but rather the Exchange Inflow CDD, which only keeps track of the coin days being destroyed through transactions into wallets connected to exchanges. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Exchange Inflow CDD over the past month or so: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Exchange Inflow CDD has registered some spikes of considerable scale this month. This would imply that many dormant coins have recently seen deposits into exchanges. Generally, spikes in the CDD correlate to movement from the long-term holders (LTHs), as these HODLers tend to accumulate large amounts of coin days. Therefore, the recent spikes in the Exchange Inflow CDD suggest that these diamond hands have been transferred to exchanges. Holders make transactions into exchanges when they want to use one of the services these platforms provide, which can include selling. The chart shows that the spikes earlier in the month had come when Bitcoin had plunged towards its lows, implying that the selling pressure from this cohort may have played a role in the crash. The latest spike, larger in scale than the others, has come while BTC has been trying to start a recovery rally from these recent lows. So far, BTC has had no luck, suggesting that the selling from the LTHs has potentially been holding the coin back. Related Reading: Chainlink Traders Capitulate After 10% Plunge: Bottom Here? It remains to be seen how the Exchange Inflow CDD behaves in the coming days and if any potential further spikes would impede Bitcoin in its path to recovery. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $57,900, up more than 4% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
The German government has depleted most of its Bitcoin holdings after an extended period of selloffs that left crypto investors reeling under selling pressure. The origin of these assets can be traced back to 2013 through the proceeds of the operations of a now-defunct movie content piracy website called Movie2K. Reports came out in mid-January […]
It appears the German government’s ultimate goal for its Bitcoin holdings is total liquidation as the authorities have continued its massive BC sell-offs, bringing its overall reserve below 5,000 BTC. These large-scale transactions are part of the government’s robust endeavor to dump the BTC that was originally seized in conjunction with multiple criminal investigations, especially […]
On-chain data suggests Satoshi’s original vision is alive and kicking as the Bitcoin network has shifted towards smaller transactions. Bitcoin P2P Payment Transfers Have Been Gaining Steam Recently In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has talked about a pattern shift on the BTC network regarding transactions that may […]
A new report from Glassnode has revealed that the Bitcoin short-term holders took part in the largest loss-taking event since 2022 in the recent crash. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Have Realized Huge Losses Recently According to the latest weekly report from Glassnode, less than 1% of trading days in the cryptocurrency’s history have seen the short-term holders taking higher losses than during the latest event. The “short-term holders” (STHs) here refer to the Bitcoin investors who bought their coins within the past 155 days. This cohort makes up one of the two main market divisions based on holding time, with the other group being called the “long-term holders” (LTHs). Statistically, the longer an investor holds onto their coins, the less likely they become to sell them at any point. As such, the LTHs reflect the stubborn side of the market, which can weather through crashes and rallies, while the STHs include the weak hands that easily react to FUD or FOMO. Related Reading: Chainlink Traders Capitulate After 10% Plunge: Bottom Here? Given this fact, it’s not unexpected that this latter cohort has again shown a strong reaction to the recent volatility in the Bitcoin price. And since it’s been a crash, the STHs have been panic selling at a loss. The below chart shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Loss specifically for the STHs over the past few years: The Realized Loss here is an indicator that keeps track of the total loss the STHs realize through their selling. Also, note that the metric is “entity-adjusted,” meaning that the metric includes the data for entities instead of addresses. An entity refers to a cluster of addresses that Glassnode has determined to belong to the same investor through its analysis. Transactions made between the wallets of the same investor would naturally not correspond to any real “loss-taking,” so excluding them from the data makes sense. As is visible in the graph, the Bitcoin STH Realized Loss registered a spike during the latest market downturn, implying that these investors made large transactions at a loss. At the height of this capitulation event, the indicator’s value hit $595 million, the largest loss-taking the cohort has shown since the FTX collapse that led to the bottom of the 2022 bear market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Now Forming Pattern That Last Led To It Blasting Off “Furthermore, only 52 out of 5655 trading days (< 1%) have recorded a larger daily loss value, highlighting the severity of this correction in dollar terms,” reads the report. From the chart, it would appear that large spikes in the metric have come around at least local bottoms in the price, so this loss-taking event may have also formed another bottom for Bitcoin. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $58,800, up 3% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
As Bitcoin adoption grows, several nations are looking forward to establishing strategic initiatives that will provide knowledge and understanding regarding the digital asset’s nature. One of the latest nations to join the fray is America’s coastal city, the city of Santa Monica. Santa Monica Takes The Lead With Bitcoin Office On Wednesday, Santa Monica, a […]
All eyes are on the upcoming announcement of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June as the crypto market negotiates choppy waters. This much awaited economic indicator has the power to change investor mood, therefore impacting Federal Reserve policy and maybe affecting world financial markets. Related Reading: Philippines Cracks Down On Crypto Crime: […]
The Bitcoin recovery has not been as impactful as expected, failing to break $60,000 even after a return of bullish momentum. Given this, expectations of a bearish reversal have become the norm as analysts do not believe that the pioneer cryptocurrency has enough steam to sustain the current momentum. One of the analysts who believe the price is destined for a downturn is Finn Oakes, who predicts a return to the $53,000 territory. Bitcoin Forms Double Top Pattern In the analysis that was shared on the TradingView website, crypto analyst Finn Oakes explains that the Bitcoin price has now formed a double top. This occurred after the Bitcoin price crossed the $59,000 level two times and both times, the price had failed to successfully clear this level. Related Reading: XRP Price: Crypto Analyst Identifies ‘Point Of Control’ That Could See A Repeat Of 2017 This double top pattern is shown on the 4-hour hour chart, where there is a reversal pattern forming as a result of this. This double top is bearish for the price and could signal a continuation of the downtrend that began last week. In such a case, the bulls have a hard fight ahead of them. Breaking down the double top, the crypto analyst explains that it has now shown $59,000 to be a strong resistance zone. This means for any rally to occur, the price would successfully have to beat this resistance before it is confirmed. In contrast to the resistance level, $56,000 has now emerged as support for the Bitcoin price. This gives both bulls and bears a tight $3,000 room to fight for dominance and push the price either way. Otherwise, sideways movement could continue. Target For The Decline Given the formation of the double top on the 4-hour chart, the crypto analyst expects the price to drop once again. For the first scenario, where the Bitcoin price breaks below the $56,000 support, the crypto analyst expects a downtrend to the $53,000 level. However, it doesn’t exactly end there if the downtrend is not stopped. In this case, the chart shows the price falling below the $53,000 level and moving toward $52,000. Although, this seems to be a worst case scenario as opposed to an expected target. Related Reading: Crypto Whales Buy The Dip As $22 Million In XRP Flows Out Of Binance Furthermore, with the rising volume during the downtrend, the analyst believes this indicates that there is more selling going on in the background, something that could contribute to the price decline. “The trading volume has increased during recent down days, indicating strong selling pressure. This reinforces the current downtrend,” Oakes said. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is struggling to hold the $58,000 level. However, it is still seeing 1.08% gains in the last day, according to data from Coinmarketcap. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
To capitalize on the growing interest in the crypto industry, banking giant Goldman Sachs is preparing to enter the tokenization sector, with three offerings expected to launch later this year. Goldman Sachs Aims To Capitalize On Tokenization Trend According to a Fortune report, Mathew McDermott, Global Head of Digital Assets at Goldman Sachs, revealed the bank’s intentions to expand its crypto offerings, focusing on the tokenization sector. Tokenization involves issuing “real-world assets,” such as money market funds and real estate holdings on public blockchains such as Ethereum or Solana, leading the bank to plan to launch three tokenization projects by the end of the year in partnership with major clients, including its first project in the United States. Related Reading: Floki Inu To Build Schools In India, FLOKI Price Seen Hitting $17 While other financial institutions, such as BlackRock, launched its first tokenized fund on the Ethereum blockchain in March, McDermott emphasized that success depends on creating products that investors want. To that end, Goldman Sachs recently hosted a digital asset summit in London attended by more than 500 clients. During the Summit, McDermott emphasized the importance of providing investors with these solutions that can “fundamentally” change asset management strategies, stating, “There’s no point in doing it just for the sake of it. According to the report, Goldman Sachs’ views on crypto differ within the institution. McDermott acknowledged that varying perspectives are expected within an institution of their size. While Sharmin Mossavar-Rahmani, CIO for Goldman Sachs, voiced skepticism about crypto as an investment asset class, McDermott emphasized the bank’s active involvement in crypto from an institutional perspective, including trading cash-settled crypto derivatives on behalf of clients and their participation in the recently approved ETF markets. Crypto Opportunities Ahead Of US Presidential Election As BlackRock successfully launched its treasury fund, BUIDL, on the Ethereum blockchain, it has garnered significant attention; McDermott noted that Goldman Sachs primarily targets institutional clients and intends to work exclusively with private blockchains due to “regulatory constraints.” Although McDermott refrained from disclosing specific details about the upcoming tokenization projects set to debut this year, he revealed that one project would focus on the US fund complex. At the same time, another would center around debt issuance in Europe. Related Reading: Ethereum Rising, 2 Million Addresses Will Be In Money If $3,200 Is Broken Looking ahead, with the US presidential election and the potential for a shift in the government’s regulatory stance on crypto on the horizon, McDermott believes that Goldman Sachs’ opportunities in the space could expand further. This could include activities like holding spot crypto assets and exploring execution and sub-custody services, subject to approval. As of this writing, the largest cryptocurrency on the market, Bitcoin (BTC), was trading at $57,580, presenting a slight decrease of 0.5% in the 24-hour time frame, aiming to consolidate above this level. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
For a while now, the German government has been reported to be offloading its Bitcoin holdings, thereby adding significant selling pressure on the flagship crypto. On-chain data shows that they still hold a significant amount of BTC, which they have no option but to sell. How Much Bitcoin The German Government Holds Data from the […]
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to face downward pressure following major negative developments surrounding the digital asset, which has led to speculations about whether BTC’s bull run has reached its climax. As a result, Cathie Wood, a popular advocate for cryptocurrencies and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Ark Invest has delved into the discussion offering her insights […]
Miners are an integral part of the Bitcoin network and since new supply comes through them, it can be important to track what the miners are doing with their coins in an effort to predict where the market might be headed next. Given this, Ki Young Ju, founder of the analytics platform Cryptoquant, has tracked […]
Data shows that ‘paper’ Bitcoin has observed a notable surge recently while the cryptocurrency’s spot price has plunged down. Paper Bitcoin Has Been Rising While Spot BTC Has Stayed Stale In a new thread on X, analyst Willy Woo has talked about the state of the Bitcoin market. BTC has been seeing a bearish trend […]
Bitcoin price is slowly moving higher above the $56,500 level. BTC might gain bullish momentum if it clears the $58,500 resistance zone. Bitcoin started a recovery wave above the $56,500 and $57,000 levels. The price is trading above $57,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $57,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might start a fresh increase above the $58,500 resistance zone. Bitcoin Price Aims Higher Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above the $56,500 level. BTC even climbed above the $57,500 level. However, the bears are again active near the $58,500 resistance zone. A high was formed at $58,200 and the price is now consolidating in a range. It also tested the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $54,955 swing low to the $58,200 high. The bulls seem to be active above the $57,000 level. Bitcoin price is now trading above $57,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $57,200 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $58,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $58,500 level. A clear move above the $58,500 resistance might start a decent increase in the coming sessions. The next key resistance could be $59,200. A close above the $59,200 resistance might start a steady increase and send the price higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $60,000 resistance. Any more gains might be difficult. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to climb above the $58,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support on the downside is near the $57,400 level. The first major support is $57,200 and the trend line. The next support is now near $56,200 and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $54,955 swing low to the $58,200 high. Any more losses might send the price toward the $55,000 support zone in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $57,200, followed by $56,200. Major Resistance Levels – $58,200, and $58,500.
Over the weekend, the Bitcoin price dropped below $60,000 amid rapid selling by major holders such as the German and US governments. This led to one of the largest drops seen for the pioneer cryptocurrency in the last two years, costing the market billions of dollars. However, despite this, Bitcoin holders are still seeing major gains, with the vast majority of investors currently in profit despite the market crash. Bitcoin Holders Enjoy Massive Gains According to data from the on-chain tracker IntoTheBlock, there are around 53.57 million Bitcoin holders worldwide. Of these investors, a total of 83% are still seeing profit despite the BTC price drop below $60,000, as it currently sits just above $56,000. Related Reading: Dogecoin Vs. Shiba Inu Vs. PEPE: Comparing The Profitability Of The Top Meme Coins This figure leaves just around 17% of the total BTC holders that are not currently seeing a profit. Out of this figure, 13% are losing money, meaning they bought their BTC coins when the price was higher than the current value, leaving 4% of holders at breakeven. This means that this 4% bought their coins around the current value, so they are neither making nor losing money at the current price. At these percentages, it means that around 44.61 million Bitcoin investors are still enjoying profits in their positions. 6.8 million BTC holders are suffering losses now, and around 2.16 million investors are currently sitting at breakeven. Interestingly, the majority of these investors sitting in profit have their entry prices below $50,000, meaning that even with another 10% crash from here, the vast majority of Bitcoin investors would still be seeing their holdings in profit. BTC Long-Term Holders At Risk Of Losses While the data shows that the vast majority of Bitcoin investors are still seeing profits, there is a growing trend that is particularly affecting long-term holders. According to a Sentiment report, the average returns of Bitcoin long-term holders risk falling into losses for the first time in more than one year. Related Reading: Finance CEO Raoul Pal Says Crypto Will Reach $100 Trillion Market Cap – Here’s When However, this is not a negative thing for the price, given how BTC has responded in the past when the average long-term holder returns fell into the red. As Santiment notes, this is usually a good time to buy, especially when “Bitcoin’s 30-day and 365-day MVRV are in negative territory.” The tracker further added, “This is when there is mathematical validation that you are buying relative to other traders’ pain.” To put how much of a good buying opportunity this is, “If you had bought the last time both of these lines were in negative territory, your return on BTC would be at +132%,” Santiment notes. To put it in plain terms, developments like these can often be a good indicator of where the bottom is and when to start buying. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox’s recent Bitcoin transfers have continued to cause concerns for the crypto community, considering the amount of selling pressure they could place on the flagship crypto. However, Cryptoquant’s founder, Ki Young Ju, has helped to ease these concerns, recently explaining why these transactions might not affect the market. Why Mt Gox’s […]
Recent developments surrounding the repayment of creditors and investors of the defunct Bitcoin (BTC) exchange, Mt. Gox, have sparked concerns about potential effects on Bitcoin’s price. As the market retraced over 20% from its three-month high above $70,000, the movement of 47,000 BTC to repay creditors has raised questions about the market’s stability. However, industry experts, including CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju and Alex Thorn, head of research at Galaxy Digital, have offered insights into this development, suggesting that the impact on BTC’s price may be less significant than initially feared. Internal Transfers, OTC, And Brokerage Services Examined Ki Young Ju, in an analysis shared on social media, outlined three possible scenarios for the BTC transactions related to creditor repayment. Firstly, an internal transfer could have taken place to increase security by changing wallets. Secondly, an over-the-counter (OTC) deal may have been executed specifically not to impact the market price. Related Reading: Is This Ethereum ICO Project To Blame For ETH’s Price Slump? In a third scenario, a brokerage service may have been used, possibly involving the sale of the BTC after it bypassed broker wallets and exchanges. Ju mentioned that 1.5K BTC went to Bitbank, Japan’s largest crypto exchange. Still, no significant increase in trading volume was observed, indicating that it may not significantly impact the market. According to Ju’s analysis: If scenario 3 applies, 94K BTC is available for sell-side liquidity, but selling this much BTC without on-chain movement is unlikely. If it’s OTC selling, we’re in the clear. Holding Bitcoin Over USD Payouts? Alex Thorn of Galaxy Digital offered additional insight into the Mt. Gox creditor dynamics and their potential impact on the market, noting that fewer coins may be distributed than originally anticipated, which could result in less selling pressure on Bitcoin than the market expects. Thorn noted that the majority of creditors are long-term Bitcoin enthusiasts with a “deep understanding” of the technology, for which he believes their desire to reclaim their coins rather than accept a USD-denominated payout indicates a strong preference for holding onto their Bitcoin, which would not contribute to an expected sell-off. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mining Difficulty Crashes 5% To Lowest Level In 3 Months, What Happens Next? In addition, Thorn explained that the significant capital gains implications of selling BTC may discourage creditors from liquidating their holdings. Despite the relatively low recovery rate, Thorn believes the 140x appreciation since bankruptcy offers significant value to creditors who may choose to hold on to their coins and expect further price appreciation. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency in the market is being traded at $56,300. This reflects a decrease of over 1.5% within the past 24 hours and a decline of nearly 20% over the month. Ultimately, it remains to be seen how the Mt. Gox drama will unfold and how it will or will not affect the Bitcoin price after more than 10 years of waiting for creditors to receive their payments. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has given traders what to expect from the Bitcoin price action in the coming months. His analysis is based on Bitcoin’s price highs and lows in bull market corrections since 2025. The analysis also makes use of Bitcoin’s price movements in previous halving cycles. Brandt’s analysis has come at a pivotal […]
On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio is doing a retest that has historically been significant for BTC. Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Is Retesting Its 365-Day SMA Right Now As explained by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio is retesting a level that has acted as an important psychological level in the past. The “MVRV ratio” here refers to a popular on-chain indicator that, in short, compares the value that the investors are holding (that is, the market cap) against what they used to purchase the cryptocurrency (the realized cap). When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the investors can be considered to be in profit right now. Tops can become more likely to form the higher the ratio above this mark, as holders become increasingly tempted to harvest their gains. Related Reading: Bitcoin ‘Extreme Greed’ Is Almost Here: Price Bottom Now Close? On the other hand, the indicator being under the level implies the dominance of losses in the market. Bottoms can be probable in this zone, as sellers become exhausted here. Naturally, the MVRV ratio is exactly equal to 1 suggests the investors are holding profits and losses in equal parts, so the average holder could be assumed to be just breaking even on their investment. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin MVRV ratio, as well as its 365-day simple moving average (SMA), over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MVRV ratio has been observing a decline since the price all-time high (ATH) set back in March. This trend is because BTC has been riding on bearish momentum since then. Investor profits, which had once ballooned to relatively high levels due to the rally, have taken a sizable hit because of the price drop. However, holders are still very much in gains, as the metric’s value is around 1.8 right now. The chart shows that this is around the same level that the indicator’s 365-day SMA has been floating around recently. Historically, this SMA has acted as an important level for the indicator, sometimes taking the role of support during bullish trends. The MVRV ratio crossing below this line has often meant a transition towards a bearish trend for Bitcoin. As such, this current retest between the indicator and the line can be significant for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Social Media Screams “Sell” As Bitcoin Crashes To $54,000: Buy Signal? It remains to be seen if this support level holds or if the metric will drop below it, potentially leading to an extended bearish period for BTC. BTC Price Bitcoin has only slightly recovered from its latest crash so far, as its price is trading around $56,900. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
Veteran trader Peter Brandt has raised the possibility of Bitcoin dropping to as low as $44,000. He predicted this could happen based on a technical indicator that paints a bearish outlook for the flagship crypto. Why Bitcoin Could Drop To $44,000 Brandt predicted in an X (formerly Twitter) post that Bitcoin could drop to as low as $44,000 if the flagship crypto has completed a double top. A double top is a bearish pattern that indicates that BTC could witness a severe reversal to the downside, having hit two consecutive peaks and a moderate decline between them. Related Reading: Dogecoin Vs. Shiba Inu Vs. PEPE: Comparing The Profitability Of The Top Meme Coins Based on Brandt’s chart, the flagship crypto may have completed a double top. However, another analyst, JK, responded to Brandt’s post, noting that the depth of the top in Bitcoin is around 10% of its price. Based on this, JK suggested that it is unlikely that Bitcoin formed a double top since Richard Schabacker (one of the greatest analysts) said that 20% and not less is required for a true double top to form. Brandt seemed to agree with JK’s reasoning, suggesting that it was also possible that a double top hasn’t been completed and that Bitcoin could witness a bullish reversal from its current price range. Some other analysts also shared their thoughts in response to Brandt’s post. One of them, Colin, mentioned that he doesn’t think that was a double top for Bitcoin. Colin added that there was too much strength on these two bounces off the lower ranges and back into the channel to assume a double top. Instead, he believes that Bitcoin’s recent price action is currently an accumulation and not a distribution range. Based on Schabacker’s analysis, another analyst, Chartvist, also explained why it is unlikely that BTC has formed a double top. The analyst mentioned that the volume profile is not in line with the technical of a double top as there is usually a high volume for the first peak and a low volume for the second peak. How BTC Could Drop To $44,000 Crypto analyst CrediBULL Crypto recently provided insights into how Bitcoin could drop to the $40,000 range. He stated that Bitcoin dropping to the demand area at $53,000 could kickstart such a downtrend. However, BTC will need to fail to hold above $53,000 for the possibility of Bitcoin dropping to $44,000 to become feasible. Related Reading: Finance CEO Raoul Pal Says Crypto Will Reach $100 Trillion Market Cap – Here’s When CrediBUILL Crypto is optimistic that BTC won’t drop to such levels. He noted that this was “the least likely to actually play out” among all the scenarios he had outlined for Bitcoin. Instead, he believes Bitcoin will likely reverse from its current price range. He predicts that the flagship crypto will rise to as high as $100,000 in the long term. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Hash Ribbons are signaling that the miners are still under immense pressure as their capitulation continues. Bitcoin Hash Ribbons Are Yet To Signal End Of Miner Capitulation In a post on X, CryptoQuant community manager Maartunn has shared what the latest trend in the Bitcoin Hash Ribbons has been looking […]
Data shows the Bitcoin sentiment is close to entering into the extreme greed zone. Here’s what this could mean for the cryptocurrency’s price. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Has Continued To Decline Recently The “Fear & Greed Index” is an indicator developed by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment that traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency market currently share. The index uses five factors to determine this sentiment: volatility, trading volume, social media, market cap dominance, and Google Trends. The metric uses a numeric scale that runs from zero to hundred for representing the mentality. Related Reading: Social Media Screams “Sell” As Bitcoin Crashes To $54,000: Buy Signal? All values of the indicator above the 53 mark suggest the presence of greed among the investors, while those below 47 imply the dominance of fear. The region in between these two thresholds correlates to a neutral sentiment. Now, here is what the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index is looking like right now: As is visible above, Bitcoin Fear & Greed currently has a value of 28, meaning that the average investor is showing fear. The degree of fearfulness must also be quite notable, as this current value is pretty deep into the territory. In fact, the latest level of the indicator is quite close to a special region called the “extreme fear.” Investors display extreme fear when the index goes under 25. There is also a similar zone for the greed side as well, which is known as “extreme greed” and occurs above 75. During the first half of last month, the metric had been in or close to the latter region, but the recent downturn in the market has sharply degraded the sentiment to the other end of the spectrum. Historically, Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies have tended to show moves opposite to what the majority are expecting. The stronger the crowd’s expectation gets, the higher the probability of such a contrary move becomes. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Undervalued Now? Industry Expert Decodes The Market State The extreme sentiments are where the traders are leaning towards one direction too much. As such, major tops and bottoms in the asset have usually formed when the index has been in these zones. Because of this fact, some traders prefer to buy when investors are showing extreme fear and sell during extreme greed. This trading philosophy is popularly called “contrarian investing.” Warren Buffet’s famous quote sums up the idea, “be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.” As the Bitcoin Fear & Greed index is approaching the extreme fear territory, it’s possible that the cryptocurrency could once again show profitable entry points soon, if the past is anything to go by. BTC Price Bitcoin has so far been unable to make too much recovery from its recent crash, as its price is still trading around $56,700. Featured image from Dall-E, Alternative.me, chart from TradingView.com
The beginning of July has not been bullish for the Bitcoin and crypto market as earlier expected due to a number of events that have shaken the market. For example, the Spot Ethereum ETFs did not debut on July 2nd as expected, and the US and German governments have been reportedly selling large tranches of BTC. However, a turn in the tide could be coming for Bitcoin and crypto at large as the CPI data is expected to drop on July 11. CPI Data Could Move The Narrative For Crypto Crypto analyst CrypNuevo took to X (formerly Twitter) to share their thoughts on where they expect the Bitcoin price to be headed next. Pointing to the upcoming CPI data, CrypNuevo explains that a rate cut could be imminent in the CPI data that is expected to be released on Thursday, July 11. Related Reading: Dogecoin Vs. Shiba Inu Vs. PEPE: Comparing The Profitability Of The Top Meme Coins With the inflation data expected to come in lower, this could point to an immediate rate cut or at least a further rate cut by the Fed going forward. Naturally, such rate cuts would be good for the Bitcoin price as they have been in the past. “A rate cut or an imminent rate cut announcement would be greatly received in the crypto market and I believe that we would see prices going up aggressively in that case,” the analyst said. “I don’t discard that if we get a good CPI on Thursday, we see that reversal for that day, because the market tends to price-in what’s to come from the FED,” CrypNuevo explains further further. Will The Bitcoin Bearish Trend Continue? For the analysis, the crypto analyst used the BTC 1-Day chart which showed a rather peculiar wick that the analysis expects to be filled. This wick is the $53,400 wick that occurred in early July before the market recovery, but the analyst does not believe that it is over for the price. Firstly, the analyst expects at least 50% of the wick to be filled, something that already happened over the weekend when the price fell to $54,000. Related Reading: Finance CEO Raoul Pal Says Crypto Will Reach $100 Trillion Market Cap – Here’s When On to the topic of the wick being 100% filled, it could be bullish for the price as the crypto analyst expects that falling to this level could see the price bounce from here. However, there is also the possibility that the price fills this wick and then falls further down. In such a case, the crypto analyst believes that $51,700 would hold for the Bitcoin price. This means that this would be the next support level for bulls to hold. A recovery from here would likely see the price barrel toward $60,000, but the analyst maintains that $60,000 is now resistance for Bitcoin. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
On Saturday, Bitcoin experienced a robust rally, climbing above $58,250. Despite this upward movement, it was unable to sustain the momentum and close above the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). This led to the formation of a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern on Sunday, signaling potential downside momentum. Currently, Bitcoin is trading below $56,000, positioning it at a critical juncture in terms of technical analysis and market sentiment. Sina G, the COO and co-founder of 21st Capital, provided a breakdown of the factors influencing Bitcoin’s price trajectory today, particularly highlighting recent declines and evaluating its undervalued state through sophisticated metrics. Starting with a historical overview, Sina pointed out that Bitcoin had seen a drastic 26% decline from a March peak of $73,000, settling around $56,000 in recent weeks. Related Reading: Bitcoin Critic Calls ‘Institutional Demand’ A Myth Following Recent Price Slump This sharp decrease has been attributed to several macroeconomic and sector-specific factors. According to him, Bitcoin’s fall from the $73,000 peak in March to $56,000 aligns with historical bull market corrections, which often see significant yet temporary retracements. The influence of Bitcoin ETFs has been pivotal. Initially, these ETFs contributed significantly to the price surge from $16,000 to $73,000, as investors engaged heavily in a buy-the-rumor, buy-the-news strategy. “Up to mid-march ETF flows were very strong and the market moved up. Since then ETFs slowed down and bankruptcy outflows took over, causing a weak price action all the way down to $56K. A notable recent impact on Bitcoin’s price has been the selling activity of the German government, which disposed of Bitcoin seized in 2013 from the pirated content platform Movie2k.to. “The government’s decision to liquidate approximately 10,000 coins across three transactions coincided directly with significant price drops on specific dates in June and July,” he noted. This selloff contributed to a steep 24% crash in June and July, exacerbated by the large volume of Bitcoin introduced into the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Crashes Below $54,000: Top-5 Reasons Is Bitcoin Undervalued? To address whether Bitcoin is currently undervalued, Sina turned to the Volatility-Adjusted Price Level Index (VPLI), a proprietary metric developed by 21st Capital. “Currently, our VPLI is at -3.57, which indicates that Bitcoin is significantly below its fair price,” Sina stated. He further clarified that historically, a VPLI score of -10 corresponds with bear market bottoms, placing the current reading in a context that suggests Bitcoin is potentially undervalued. “This puts us in the 41th percentile of values – i.e., Bitcoin has only spent 41% of below this VPLI reading (most of which during the bear markets). So the risk-reward balance is favorable,” he added. Looking forward, Sina highlighted two critical short-term indicators that could dictate Bitcoin’s immediate price movements: the continuation of Bitcoin sales by the German government and the behavior of the perpetual swaps funding rate. “Recently, the funding rate has been negative, which is typically a bearish signal. This suggests that many traders are taking short positions, anticipating further declines, which paradoxically might indicate that the market is close to reaching a bottom,” he concluded. At press time, BTC traded at $55,835. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
The price of Bitcoin has increased by 6% since it crossed into the $53,000 price territory on July 5. However, while the cryptocurrency is now exhibiting short-term bullishness, it is important to note that it is not out of the woods yet. Related Reading: Buy The Dip? XRP Whales Doing Exactly That – Is A Price Rally Next? There are still some serious resistance levels that could keep BTC trapped in a range below $60,000 for the rest of the month. According to a recent analysis by Captain Faibik, the leading digital asset needs to close above the $61,000 mark before everybody can be convinced of bullish momentum. Bitcoin Needs To Clear Major Resistance The $61,000 price level isn’t just an arbitrary price point. According to a recent analysis shared by crypto analyst Captain Faibik, the $61,000 price is more of a resistance level that resonates with Bitcoin’s price action over the past two months. In a 4-hour Bitcoin/TetherUS timeframe chart shared on social media platform X, the analyst drew two diverging trendlines from Bitcoin’s brief break above $70,000 on June 6. Since then, Bitcoin’s price decline has led to the creation of lower highs and lower lows. In order for Bitcoin to cross into total bullish momentum, it would need to cross over the upper trendline, which has been tracking the lower highs since June 6. Notably, this price level is around $61,000. $BTC seems to have bottomed out, but it’s not out of the woods yet..!! Bitcoin bulls need to clear the $61k Resistance area to regain Bullish momentum.#Crypto #Bitcoin #BTC pic.twitter.com/rzROKaA0Xo — Captain Faibik (@CryptoFaibik) July 6, 2024 Captain Faibik isn’t the only analyst eyeing this crucial level either. Many agree that a daily or weekly close above $61,000 would cement the end of Bitcoin’s price correction. This crucial price level was echoed in an analysis by Ali Martinez, another popular crypto analyst. Martinez’s analysis is based on IntoTheBlock’s In/Out Of The Money metric, which tracks the number of addresses that are profitable and those that are in losses. As per Martinez’s take on this metric, Bitcoin doesn’t have enough demand levels to prop it up in case of a fall up to $47,000. Conversely, Bitcoin must close above $61,000 for the bullish momentum to return. The $61,000 level is a heavily contested zone with tons of trading activity. There are approximately 1.7 million BTC addresses collectively holding over 600,000 BTC waiting to turn a profit at this price point. #Bitcoin currently lacks significant support. The main key demand wall is around $47,000, and for the bull run to resume, $BTC must close and hold above $61,000. pic.twitter.com/9cD2otd4ZK — Ali (@ali_charts) July 5, 2024 Related Reading: Is Dogwifhat (WIF) Down For The Count? Price Tanks 15% On Whale Exodus What’s At Stake For Bitcoin? Breaking past $61,000 is crucial for Bitcoin to prove its resilience and re-establish an uptrend. Failing to do so could reinforce the bearish narrative and trigger another sell-off. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital also noted that Bitcoin needs a daily close above $58,450 in order to fuel an upside to $60,600. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView
Although Bitcoin has reclaimed the $56,000 price level in the past few hours, its sudden drop below $54,000 on July 5 has reminded investors of the intense volatility associated with the market. In the larger timeframe, Bitcoin has been down by 7% and 20.25% in the past seven and thirty days, respectively. While many crypto traders and analysts are still in the spirit of a bullish cycle in the long term, the sudden price drop wasn’t surprising to some. Notably, crypto trader @TheFlowHorse revealed that the drop to $53,000 resonated with his target of $52,000. Similarly, Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, noted the possibility of Bitcoin dropping to $47,000. Bitcoin Could Crash To $47,000 According to Ki Young Ju, Bitcoin is still in a bull market in the larger timeframe, which will continue until early 2025. This school of thought resonates with many other price outlooks for Bitcoin, especially in the long term. Despite this bullish projection, market participants are currently struggling with short-term bearish conditions. Related Reading: Dogecoin Vs. Shiba Inu Vs. PEPE: Comparing The Profitability Of The Top Meme Coins As Ki Young Ju noted, this uncertainty opens up the possibility of the world’s leading digital currency plummeting to a chilling $47,000 before finding its footing again. With the crypto market in a prolonged slump since the beginning of June, this bearish case scenario seems increasingly plausible. Bitcoin, in particular, has shed billions in value, and investor confidence is wavering. $112K at the peak of the cycle.https://t.co/beKpUVkNXL pic.twitter.com/Esj02BYms4 — Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) July 5, 2024 Young Ju admonishes traders not to open high-leverage long or short positions based on his long-term bullish projections due to the prevailing uncertainty. When asked what his long-term price target for Bitcoin was, he noted a rise to $112,000 at the peak of the cycle. This prediction is based on the BTC realized market cap since July 2010. Bearish Case For Bitcoin At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $56,520 and has rebounded by 4.67% since its recent fall below $54,000. However, despite this price recovery, the crypto faces a significant risk of falling further amid whale selloffs, which have amounted to over $1.7 billion in BTC in the past 30 days. Defunct crypto exchange Mt. Gox is also starting to repay its creditors in BTC after 10 years of inactivity. This is anticipated to unleash a $2.71 billion supply of Bitcoin onto the market, perhaps intensifying selling pressure. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Sees Sharp 100% Decline In Whale Activity, Is This Good Or Bad For Price? A reversal to the downside is not out of the books yet. If Bitcoin were to fall to $47,000, it would represent a 16% decline from the current price level. Market participants continue to await how Bitcoin’s price action plays out in July, which has historically been a positive month. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital has provided insights into when the price of Bitcoin will reach its cycle highs. His analysis has provided reassurance that the flagship crypto is still far from a market top despite its recent decline to new lows this week. Related Reading: Dogecoin Decimated: $5 Million Liquidation Sparks 14% Price Plunge When Will Bitcoin Peak In This Bull Run Rekt Capital mentioned in an X (formerly Twitter) post that Bitcoin could peak in this cycle sometime in mid-September or mid-October 2025 if history were to repeat itself. The analyst noted that Bitcoin peaked 518 days after the halving event during the 2017 bull run and 546 days after the halving event during the 2021 bull run. Based on this, the analyst predicts that Bitcoin’s market top in this bull could occur between 518 and 546 days after the halving event, which happened earlier in April. This timeline puts the projected peak for Bitcoin sometime in September or October next year. Meanwhile, Rekt Capital again alluded to the fact that Bitcoin was accelerating in this cycle by 260 days earlier this year. However, that is no longer the case thanks to the over three-month consolidation period the flagship crypto has experienced since the halving event. Rekt Capital claimed that the rate of acceleration has “drastically dropped and is now approximately 150 days.” He added that Bitcoin will likely resynchronize with the traditional halving cycle the longer it consolidates. The crypto analyst has also refused to be deterred by Bitcoin’s current price action, which some claim suggests that the bull run is over. However, Rekt Capital has repeatedly stated that Bitcoin will retrace deep enough to convince anyone that the bull run is over, and then it will continue its uptrend. In another X post, Rekt Capital mentioned that Bitcoin’s downtrend, which began last month, is one to watch for a major trend shift. The analyst remarked that a break of the “multi-week downtrend would result in the beginning of at least a multi-week uptrend” for the flagship crypto. Bitcoin is now trading at $56,693. Chart: TradingView ‘This Is Not The Cycle Top Vibes’ Crypto analyst Mikybull Crypto also believes that the cycle top isn’t in yet despite Bitcoin’s recent decline, stating that this price action “is not the cycle top vibes.” The analyst also said that Bitcoin’s current sell-off bottom might be closer than everyone thinks and noted that this scenario played out in the third quarter of 2023 when most people thought it was over. Related Reading: Buy The Dip? XRP Whales Doing Exactly That – Is A Price Rally Next? The analyst previously mentioned that the cycle top isn’t in yet and simply classified this market downtrend as the “final shakeout” before Bitcoin reaches its peak in this bull run. Mikybull Crypto also claimed that Bitcoin has a cycle top price target of $171,000, meaning that the flagship crypto will still hit new all-time highs (ATHs) before the bull run was considered as being over. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView