The repeated Bitcoin transfers to centralized exchanges suggest that the government is planning to sell its $2.75 billion worth of BTC holdings.
Recent on-chain data shows that substantial amounts of Bitcoin have made their way to centralized exchanges in the last few days. How could this impact the Bitcoin price? Bitcoin Price To Face Further Selling Pressure? In a new post on the X platform, prominent crypto analyst Ali Martinez revealed that Bitcoin investors have been transferring their assets to centralized exchanges in recent days. The relevant indicator here is CryptoQuant’s Exchange Reserve metric, which tracks the total amount of a particular cryptocurrency held on all exchanges. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Army On The Move: 35 Billion SHIB Invade Shibarium It is worth noting that the value of this metric rises when investors are making more deposits than withdrawals of a cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this scenario) into centralized exchanges. Meanwhile, when the metric’s value falls, it means that holders are transferring their assets out of the trading platforms. According to CryotoQuant data, more than 14,000 BTC (valued at approximately $851.2 million) have been sent to crypto exchanges in the last four days. As shown in the chart below, the exchange reserve metric is at its highest level in nearly a month. Typically, an increase in the exchange reserve indicates high selling pressure, as investors often use centralized exchanges to sell assets. Consequently, the movement of huge amounts to trading platforms could exacerbate the downward pressure on the Bitcoin price. Furthermore, the exodus of significant amounts to centralized exchanges could trigger price volatility for the premier cryptocurrency. This would imply an increased likelihood of big price movements in the future. However, there has not been any impact on the Bitcoin price in the past day. As of this writing, the price of the premier cryptocurrency stands at around $60,700, reflecting a bare 0.3% increase in the last 24 hours. Price Rebound Imminent For BTC: Santiment Fortunately, it is not all gloom for the Bitcoin price at the moment. Prominent on-chain analytics platform Santiment has offered a positive outlook for the price of the market leader. According to the blockchain firm, Bitcoin’s recovery following dips in the past two weeks has been short-lived. Santiment believes that a price rebound is imminent for the premier cryptocurrency. The rationale behind this analysis is based on two factors; the recent negative sentiment from the crowd and the low relative strength index (RSI). Santiment said in its post: But note the continued negative sentiment pouring in from the crowd, indicating their patience is wearing thin. This, along with a low RSI of just 36, are strong indications a bounce is close. Related Reading: BlackRock Global Allocation Fund Reveals Major Bitcoin ETF Stake With 43,000 Shares Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
BTC price performance offers little inspiration through the latest U.S. macro data, but concern is brewing among Bitcoin analysts over $60,000 support.
Amidst waves of concern surrounding the sale of Bitcoin by the US and German governments, industry experts have come forward to dispel fears, suggesting that these moves could be bullish for the market. Yesterday, the Bitcoin sector experienced heightened volatility following actions by two major governments. The German Federal Criminal Police (BKA) continued with its sales of Bitcoin, reducing its holdings from 50,000 BTC to 45,264 BTC. Concurrently, the US government transferred 4,000 BTC to Coinbase, likely aiming for liquidation, retaining a substantial 213,546 BTC in its reserves. Why This Is Bullish For Bitcoin (Long-Term) Travis Kling, founder of Ikigai Asset Management, remarked on the synchronicity of these events. “All at the same time—US Govt selling seized Silk Road Bitcoin, US Govt selling seized Banmeet Singh BTC, German Govt selling seized Movie2k BTC, Mt Gox distributing BTC after a decade. Interesting… I can’t help but look at all these actions and wonder about some kind of coordination/underlying intention,” Kling stated via X. Related Reading: Bitcoin Near ‘Euphoria’ Boundary: What Happens After A Breach? Despite concerns that these sales could pressure Bitcoin prices, experts argue that the impact on the market is likely minimal. Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, countered the prevalent fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). He noted, “US gov’t sold 4K Bitcoin today, but it’s less likely to impact the market. Coinbase Prime handled 20-49K BTC in sell-side liquidity daily during high spot ETF inflows and 6-15K daily during low spot ETF inflows. Posting this because I’m tired of ‘gov’t selling’ FUDs,” as shared via X. Crypto analyst Skew (@52kskew) provided insights into how these transactions typically occur, “US Gov sent 3.94K BTC to Coinbase Prime to be handled by Coinbase Institutional. There’s typically two options here: OTC desks can auction off the BTC to clients (off-market buyers), or an open market auction (sold over time on the market).” Skew’s explanation makes it clear that the impact on the price is likely to be rather small. Adam Cochran, managing partner at CEHV, highlighted the resilience of Bitcoin in light of multiple bearish catalysts, “Also with US Gov FUD, Mt Gox FUD, most major airdrops finished, markets down, Nvidia off highs, BTC has had every reason to go lower, and it’s still mostly held $60k. Negative news struggling to make a dent.” Will Gold’s History Repeat Itself For BTC? Echoing a historically bullish sentiment, Alistar Milne, CIO of Altana Digital, drew parallels to past government sales of assets, “Government selling is bullish. Gordon Brown famously sold the UK’s Gold reserves for less than $300/ounce. One of the worst decisions made by a Chancellor of the Exchequer, ever. Germany & America are making far worse mistakes by selling seized BTC now. They can only sell once.” Government selling is bullish Gordon Brown famously sold the UK’s Gold reserves for less than $300/ounce. One of the worst decisions made by a Chancellor of the Exchequer, ever Germany & America are making far worse mistakes by selling seized BTC now. They can only sell once pic.twitter.com/i0rZMpuiS0 — Alistair Milne (@alistairmilne) June 26, 2024 For context, during his tenure as Chancellor of the Exchequer from 1997 to 2007, Gordon Brown made the decision to sell approximately 60% of the UK’s gold reserves between 1999 and 2002, a period known as the “Brown Bottom.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Selloff: German Gov’t Offloads Another $67 Million As Price Wobbles The sales were conducted in a series of auctions at prices that ranged between $256 and $296 per ounce—significantly below the gold price in subsequent years, which saw a substantial rise. This action is widely regarded as a financial misstep that cost the UK treasury billions in potential revenue, as gold prices surged to over $1,500 per ounce in the following decades. Moreover, there’s another bullish aspect to this. The finalization of these BTC sales could remove a significant overhang on the market as these sales are hanging above the market like a Damocles sword; once done, there’s a major downside risk for the market forever eliminated, better early than late. At press time, BTC traded at $61,117. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Quinn Thompson, Chief Investment Officer (CIO) at Lekker Capital, articulated a strong buy signal for cryptocurrencies amidst a landscape fraught with bearish sentiment. In a statement released through the social media platform X, Thompson described the present market conditions as “one of the most obvious and attractive crypto buying opportunities of recent memory.” Lekker Capital, which has carved a niche in trading cryptocurrencies based on macroeconomic cues, provides an analysis that contrasts sharply with the prevailing market mood. Thompson’s commentary comes at a time when the broader crypto community appears enmeshed in pessimism. He expressed concern over the current trend where it’s become fashionable among crypto investors to adopt a bearish stance. “In all of my 5 years in crypto, I have never seen it be so ‘cool’ amongst crypto native investors as it is right now to be bearish,” Thompson noted, reflecting on the cyclical nature of market sentiments. Related Reading: ‘Crypto Queen’ Wanted: FBI Puts $5 Million Price Tag On OneCoin Founder’s Arrest Thompson pointed to the reactive nature of the market, particularly surrounding major events like ETF launches. He revisited the aftermath of the US spot Bitcoin ETF launch, which contrary to the bullish anticipation, saw Bitcoin’s price plunge from $49,000 to $38,000, marking a steep 22% decline in just 12 days. This event, he argued, should serve as a cautionary tale about the market’s tendency to move against consensus expectations. Addressing the most recent market dynamics, Thompson highlighted the significant impact of the sell-off that dampened the spirits of market participants, discouraging the usual strategies of buying the dip with leveraged positions. “It’s clear this most recent selloff has finally stung market participants given the lack of leveraged long dip buying,” he observed. This scenario, according to him, sets the stage for a market correction that typically follows a pattern of initial slow recovery, stabilization, and then a rapid upward movement once a catalytic event occurs. He recalled the BTC ETF leak in October as a “buy the news” event that realigned market sentiment. Furthermore, Thompson discussed the forward-looking nature of financial markets, emphasizing that the crypto market is no exception. He believes that the market has already adjusted to past events such as the Mt. Gox saga and Bitcoin sell-offs from the US and German governments. “The key thing to remember here is markets are forward looking. Citing the Mt. Gox or US and German government supply overhangs is old news – the market has priced this in. Fear and capitulation invokes an irrational near-sightedness,” the Lekker Capital CIO remarked. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin Bottom Is In, New Highs Imminent: Crypto Expert Looking ahead, he underscored several macro and microeconomic developments poised to influence the market. “On the macro front, these include a November election and additional Fed liquidity. On the micro front, they are the ETH ETF, Circle IPO, and improved BTC miner profitability thanks to AI,” he explained. These factors are expected to reduce selling pressure (e.g. Bitcoin miners) and invigorate market sentiment. Delving deeper into market technicals, Thompson pointed out that several key indicators are at cycle lows, which historically precede upward movements. He noted, “BTC and ETH CME basis, alt open interest as a percentage of total, and macro relative value all sit at cycle lows while stablecoin supply is finally growing again.” This combination of factors, according to Thompson, signals a potential market bottom forming. In a bold closing prediction, Thompson projected significant rallies for major cryptocurrencies in the near future. “Personally, I think ETH will reach $7,000 and BTC will make its first attempt at $100,000 by the election in November,” he stated confidently. At press time, BTC traded at $60,766. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
In a continued effort to liquidate its substantial Bitcoin holdings, the German government has once again engaged in significant transactions involving BTC, according to data from blockchain analytics platforms Arkham Intel. This morning, the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA) executed nine transactions involving a total of roughly 2,786 BTC. German Gov’t Continues Its Bitcoin Sell-Off Arkham Intel’s data shows that four of them are internal transfers while five transactions were direct transfers to crypto exchanges and market makers, suggesting an intent to sell. The five potential sales amount to 1,095.339 BTC worth approximately $67 million. Specifically, the BKA made two 125 BTC transfers, each worth approximately $7.7 million, to well-known crypt exchanges Bitstamp and Kraken. An additional transaction involved a minute test transfer of 0.001 BTC to Flow Traders, a leading market maker. This small transaction was soon followed by a much larger transfer of 345.338 BTC to the same entity, strongly suggesting preparation for a substantial sell order. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin Bottom Is In, New Highs Imminent: Crypto Expert Another noteworthy transfer of 500 BTC was directed to an enigmatic address tagged as “139Po.” This address has seen previous activity linked to the German government but remains shrouded in mystery, speculated to be another sale point. These transactions form part of a broader trend observed since last week. Just a day prior, on June 25, the government had disposed of 400 Bitcoin worth $24 million on Kraken and Coinbase, as well as 500 BTC to address “139Po.” This is in addition to significant movements earlier last week: $130 million worth of BTC were transferred to exchanges on June 19 and $65 million on June 20. Counterbalancing these outflows, the government received $20.1 million back from Kraken and $5.5 million from wallets associated with Robinhood, Bitstamp, and Coinbase. Related Reading: Will Bitcoin Have A ‘Red Monday, Green Week’? Analyst Sets $63,500 Target Currently, the German government’s holdings amount to 45,264 BTC, valued at around $2.8 billion. This makes Germany one of the top nation-state holders of Bitcoin, trailing only behind the United States, China, and the United Kingdom, which hold 213,246 BTC, 190,000 BTC, and 61,000 BTC respectively, according to data from Bitcoin Treasuries. BTC Price Hangs Above Critical Level The pattern of large-scale disposals by the German government has contributed to fluctuations in Bitcoin’s market price, which has experienced a decline of approximately 6% since the onset of these transactions. Bitcoin’s value briefly fell below the $60,000 threshold following the announcement from Mt. Gox about disbursing approximately $9 billion worth of Bitcoin and Bitcoin Cash starting in July. Market analysts and investors are also keenly observing these governmental actions as the sell-off seems to continue at a slow pace. This strategic liquidation by the German government arrives at a pivotal juncture for market sentiment, with Bitcoin prices teetering just above critical support levels. Should the daily trading price close below the $60,000 threshold, it could potentially trigger a more pronounced downturn in Bitcoin’s price, exacerbating market volatility and uncertainty. At press time, BTC traded at $61,451. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
A deluge of potential BTC price volatility triggers is due this week, and Bitcoin market participants are eyeing the most crucial support zone to hold.
The German government is continuing to actively liquidate portions of its substantial Bitcoin (BTC) holdings, transferring significant sums to various cryptocurrency exchanges and wallets, according to data from Arkham Intelligence. This wave of transfers includes the recent movement of $24 million worth of Bitcoin, underscoring a broader strategy that may be influencing Bitcoin’s current market […]
BTC price recovers from seven-week lows, but Bitcoin is not the only asset attempting to break higher.
Recent on-chain data suggests Bitcoin’s current woes might not yet be over as short-term holders continue to feel the heat. Bitcoin has failed to rebound significantly after a price decline in the past week, leaving many investors wondering whether to expect further declines in the coming weeks. Notably, data reveals short-term holders have been left […]
A popular crypto analyst has explained how the Bitcoin price could be at risk of further downside based on the current distribution of BTC supply around the price. This Bitcoin Price Range Holds A Critical Supply Barrier In a recent post on the X platform, prominent crypto pundit Ali Martinez discussed how the price of […]
Crypto analyst Willy Woo recently explained what needs to happen for Bitcoin to continue its bull run. The flagship crypto has been on a decline for a while now and has failed to make a significant run since hitting its current all-time high (ATH) of $73,750 in March earlier this year. What Needs To Happen […]
Dell's message on X follows his $2.1 billion cash out from his Dell Technologies Class C common stock holdings.
The Bitcoin price performance over the past week failed to bring glory to the crypto market, as the leading cryptocurrency struggled once again. This trend was mirrored across almost all large-cap assets, many of which experienced significant losses. Unfortunately, recent price action data suggests that the Bitcoin price is not safe yet, as there is potential for further downside over the coming days. Is $60,000 The Next Stop? In a new report, blockchain intelligence firm CryptoQuant put forward an interesting prognosis for the price of Bitcoin based on its recent movement. According to the analytics platform, the premier cryptocurrency could be headed for the $60,000 price mark after losing a significant support level. Related Reading: Survival of the Fittest: Here’s How Bitcoin’s Next Rally Hangs on Miner Capitulation On Tuesday, June 18, the Bitcoin price fell below 65,000 for the first time in over a month. The price of BTC didn’t stay beneath this level for too long, as it quickly climbed back to $66,000 by Thursday. However, the premier cryptocurrency succumbed to the bearish pressure, falling as low as $63,500 on Friday, June 21. In its analysis, CryptoQuant postulates that the price of Bitcoin is currently beneath the vital $65,800 level, which is the trader’s on-chain realized price. This price indicator can act as a support level, signaling an impending decline if the BTC price breaks it to the downside. According to CryptoQuant, every time the Bitcoin price crosses beneath the on-chain realized price, it undergoes an 8-12% correction, which explains the $60,000 price target. Interestingly, the waning on-chain metrics of the market leader support this bearish projection. As explained by CryptoQuant, traders’ demand for Bitcoin has continued to decline, as the short-term holders are not purchasing BTC but rather decreasing their holdings. Meanwhile, the demand from large investors (whales) currently lacks the strength often associated with bullish momentum. Furthermore, stablecoin liquidity has been on a steady decline, putting a strain on the Bitcoin bull run. For instance, the 60-day growth in Tether USD’s (USDT) market capitalization has slowed down from $12.6 billion in late April to $3.7 billion as of now — the slowest growth rate since November 2023. Naturally, higher stablecoin liquidity is required to kickstart price rallies in the crypto market. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the Bitcoin price continues to hover around $64,000, with a 1.2% decline in the last 24 hours. In the past two weeks, the premier cryptocurrency has decreased in value by nearly 8%, according to data from CoinGecko. Related Reading: Bitcoin Spot ETFs Effect: Bernstein Analysts Revise BTC Target To $200,000, Here’s When Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Analysts say Bitcoin price will rally only after BTC miners capitulate and the network’s hashrate recovers.
Bitcoin is experiencing a significant decline today, dipping below the $64,000 mark to a low of $63,564. This drop represents a 2.5% decrease in the last 24 hours and an overall 12% decline over the past two weeks. Amidst this downward trend, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of BitMEX, is not only maintaining his bullish stance on Bitcoin but actively encouraging investment, advocating a strategy to ‘buy the dip.’ His optimism and advice are deeply rooted in an analysis of global economic conditions and central bank policies, which he believes will favor cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin. Buy The Bitcoin Dip? Hayes’s insights draw attention to the aggressive monetary policies implemented by central banks, particularly the US Federal Reserve. These policies, including rapid interest rate hikes—the most aggressive since the 1980s—were initiated in response to rising inflation in the United States. The hikes have had a profound impact on the bond market, particularly affecting US Treasuries (USTs), which saw a decrease in prices due to the rising yields. Japanese banks, in search of yield amid domestically near-zero interest rates, had heavily invested in these USTs. Related Reading: 3 Reasons To Invest In Ethereum, 1 To Stay Bitcoin-Only: Bitwise CIO The strategy backfired when US rates rose, leading to significant paper losses for these banks. Hayes specifically points to the situation with Norinchukin Bank, which was compelled to sell off $63 billion in foreign bonds, mostly USTs, to reduce these losses. This scenario underscores a broader trend among Japanese banks, which may need to continue offloading USTs and other foreign bonds as they adjust to the new economic realities imposed by US monetary policy. Hayes argues that these developments have critical implications for the crypto market, particularly Bitcoin. He notes that the responses by central banks to stabilize financial markets—such as the Federal Reserve’s decision to provide a blanket backstop in March 2023 following a series of bank failures—indirectly benefit cryptocurrencies. This intervention led to a surge in Bitcoin’s price, reinforcing its status as a viable alternative investment during times of financial instability. Moreover, Hayes points out the operational details of the FIMA repo facility, which was expanded by the Fed to bolster liquidity. He explains, “A rise in the FIMA repo facility indicates an addition of dollar liquidity to the global money markets. Y’all know what that means for Bitcoin and crypto … which is why I thought it necessary to alert readers about another avenue of stealth money printing.” This mechanism allows central banks to exchange their holdings of USTs for dollars, increasing the dollar supply without flooding the market with bonds and potentially driving up yields. Related Reading: German Government’s Bitcoin Dump Surpasses $195M As Selling Spree Persists The implications for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies are profound, according to Hayes. He suggests that as central banks, particularly the Bank of Japan, might use these facilities to manage their exposure to USTs, the resultant increase in dollar liquidity could drive investors towards cryptocurrencies. This movement is seen as a hedge against potential inflation and currency debasement resulting from these monetary expansions. Hayes vividly describes the effect of these macroeconomic maneuvers on the crypto market: “Just as many began to wonder where the next jolt of dollar liquidity would come from, the Japanese banking system dropped Origami cranes composed of crisply folded dollar bills upon the laps of crypto investors. This is just another pillar of the crypto bull market. The supply of dollars must increase to maintain the current Pax Americana dollar-based filthy financial system.” In a rallying call to the crypto community, Hayes concludes, “Say it with me, ‘Shikata Ga Nai’, and buy the fucking dip!” Through this declaration, he underscores his belief that despite the volatile market conditions, the underlying economic and monetary developments are creating favorable conditions for Bitcoin’s growth. His analysis suggests that savvy investors should view the current price drops as buying opportunities, given the broader economic backdrop that he believes will continue to propel interest and investment in cryptocurrencies. At press time, BTC traded at $64,159. Featured image from Forkast News, chart from TradingView.com
It may seem like long ago, but Bitcoin spent months going nowhere just last year before a major BTC price breakout.
The Bitcoin price crash below $66,000 has taken the market by surprise, leading to over $90 million in liquidations in a 24-hour period. But even after dropping so much already, analysts do not believe that the worst is over. In particular, crypto analyst Ali Martinez has said that Bitcoin may still have a ways to go before the crash is over, prediction another 20% decline from here. Bitcoin Falls Below Major Pricing Band Crypto analyst Ali Martinez posted a new analysis on X (formerly Twitter) on the Bitcoin price that paints a rather bearish picture for the pioneer cryptocurrency. According to Martinez, the Bitcoin crash below $68,000 had actually pushed it below an important level. Related Reading: Analyst Says XRP Price Is Long Overdue For Bullish Wave, Here’s The Target The major level of importance here is the $67,890 pricing range, which the price has now fallen below. As Martinez explains, this area is important as the “+0.5σ MVRV pricing band” lies here. It also means that a crash below this level is very bearish for the price, and as Martinez shows, Bitcoin has already fallen below it. This fall puts a bearish motion in place as the crypto analyst believes it may trigger a correction. Now, while corrections are normal, the expectation for how far the crash will go is what is worrying because the analyst has placed a possible $54,930 target for the price. #Bitcoin has dropped below the +0.5σ MVRV pricing band at $67,890, which may trigger a correction toward the mean pricing band at $54,930. pic.twitter.com/zZvswgpUpS — Ali (@ali_charts) June 19, 2024 Such a crash would mean that the Bitcoin price would fall another 20% from its current level. Given the previous crashes, this could be devastating for altcoins, whose prices could fall another 50% if BTC were to crash below $55,000. Navigating The Drop In Interest One interesting development for Bitcoin is the drop in interest that has been experienced this week. For example, the daily trading volume, according to CoinMarketCap, fell 43.5% in the last day along. This brings the Bitcoin daily trading volume to around $19 billion from the almost $40 billion recorded the previous day. Related Reading: Cardano Bucks Bears As Large Transactions Climb To $10 Billion, Can This Drive Price To $1? This drop in trading volume indicates that investors are taking fewer positions. With the uncertainty surrounding the market, this comes as no surprise, given that investors are prone to wait for the situation to improve before taking more positions. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has also declined, showing that fear is growing in the market. It is now sitting at a score of 60, which shows greed, a long way from May’s score of 76, which showed extreme greed in the market. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is holding at $65,667, with a 0.77% gain in the last day. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
In an interesting turn of events, the Bitcoin open interest has remained high even at a time when the price has been dropping. This suggests that despite the price crash, investors are still looking favorably at the pioneer cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Open Interest Stays Close To All-Time High The Bitcoin price has seen a decline over […]
Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has regained momentum, bouncing off a weekly low of $64,000 to find support above $65,000, halting last week’s downtrend. This price recovery may be due to another significant investment round by business intelligence company MicroStrategy, led by Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor. The company announced on Thursday the acquisition of an additional 11,931 BTC valued at approximately $786.0 million, further solidifying its position as a major institutional holder of the digital asset. MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin Holdings Surge To Nearly $15 Billion MicroStrategy’s Chairman and Co-founder, Michael Saylor, revealed the latest acquisition in a social media post. The company purchased 11,931 Bitcoin between April 27 and June 19, utilizing proceeds from convertible notes and excess cash at an average price of $65,883 per Bitcoin. Notably, the recent purchases increased MicroStrategy’s overall Bitcoin holdings to an impressive 226,331 BTC, acquired at a total cost of $8.3 billion, currently valued at approximately $14.9 billion. Related Reading: Solana Could Face A 41% Crash, Warns Mechanism Capital Co-Founder Saylor’s interest in Bitcoin dates back to 2020, when he began purchasing the cryptocurrency as a hedge against inflation and an alternative to holding cash. Since then, Bitcoin has experienced substantial growth, appreciating around 600% since Saylor’s initial investments. The recent purchase by MicroStrategy comes at a time when market sentiment towards Bitcoin is mixed. Market intelligence platform Santiment reports that the community is “mainly fearful” or disinterested as Bitcoin’s price hovers between $64,000 and $65,000. However, Santiment suggests that BTC trader fatigue, combined with whale accumulation exemplified by MicroStrategy’s latest acquisition, often leads to price bounces “that reward the patient,” as seen in the image above. BTC’s Cycle Top To Reach New Heights Despite the current mixed sentiment in the market, most experts and analysts are forecasting a cycle top for Bitcoin beyond the current all-time highs. Market analyst Crypto Con recently used Fibonacci retracements to forecast conservative and less conservative potential cycle top targets. According to Crypto Con’s analysis, the .618 Fibonacci retracement level has proven reliable for previous Bitcoin cycle tops. Extension levels can be derived by retracing from the cycle bottom to the top of the first move. The cycle tops of 2013 and 2017 were predicted at 4.618, while the 2021 top was forecasted at the 5.618 level. For the current cycle, the conservative target for the cycle top is $106,000, while the less conservative target stands at $161,000, according to Crypto Con. Related Reading: SEC Drama Fuels XRP Rally: Open Interest Skyrockets Adding to the positive sentiment, wealth management firm Bernstein has made bold predictions for Bitcoin’s future price trajectory. Despite arguments from bears that the Bitcoin ETF trade is over and early allocations were driven by retail investors, Bernstein holds a different viewpoint. The firm emphasizes that Bitcoin ETFs are on the verge of approvals at major wirehouses and large private bank platforms in this year’s third or fourth quarter. These potential approvals and institutional interest act as a catalyst for adoption. Bernstein expects Bitcoin to reach a cycle high of approximately $200,000 by 2025, $500,000 by 2029, and an impressive $1 million by 2033. The firm asserts that institutional investors are evaluating “net long” positions, indicating a growing interest in the cryptocurrency. At the time of writing, BTC has limited its losses in the 7-day time frame to 3.6%, resulting in a current trading price of $65,170 for the largest cryptocurrency on the market. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
A bullish chart pattern has bulls setting $72,000 as the new Bitcoin price target.
Josh Olszewicz, a renowned crypto analyst, has recently shared critical insights into the immediate Bitcoin price future, employing two technical analysis frameworks: the Ichimoku Cloud and Bollinger Bands. These tools hint at pivotal moments that could shape the trajectory of the Bitcoin price in the near to medium term. Bitcoin Analysis Using The Ichimoku Cloud In the first chart featuring the daily Ichimoku Cloud, Olszewicz highlights a critical moment for Bitcoin as it navigates through this complex indicator. The Ichimoku Cloud, known for providing support and resistance levels as well as momentum and trend direction, shows Bitcoin trading near the edge of the cloud. This is significant because a break above the cloud could suggest a bullish outlook, while falling below the cloud often signals bearish momentum. Here, Olszewicz emphasizes a ‘do or die’ scenario for Bitcoin. The price of Bitcoin, as recorded last on the chart at $64,570, approaches the edge of the cloud. “No one likes an ultimatum but it’s do or die here pretty soon on the daily BTC cloud,” warned. Related Reading: IntoTheBlock Reveals Fact About Current Bitcoin Situation Analysts Are Puzzled By A significant aspect of the Ichimoku Cloud chart is the relationship between the Tenkan-Sen (red line) and the Kijun-Sen (blue line). The Tenkan-Sen, which is a shorter-term moving average, remains above the Kijun-Sen, a longer-term moving average, indicating a positive momentum in the short run. Bollinger Bands Weekly Analysis Moving to the weekly chart equipped with Bollinger Bands, Olszewicz discusses another potential inflection point. Bollinger Bands serve as a measure of volatility—narrow bands suggest low volatility while wider bands indicate higher volatility. The Bitcoin chart shows a tightening of these bands around the current price level, which may precede a significant price movement, often referred to as a “Bollinger Band Squeeze.” The fact that Bitcoin is hovering just above the midline (the 20-period moving average) of the Bollinger Bands at $64,238 points to a tenuous balance between buying and selling forces. However, the narrowing of the bands is particularly notable because it could lead to a decisive breakout or breakdown, depending on other market factors and trader sentiment. If Bitcoin breaks below the midline, the next support could be found at the lower Bollinger Band, currently positioned around $51,792, which could represent a significant downturn in price. Conversely, should Bitcoin bounce off the midline and gain upward momentum, it might target the upper Bollinger Band, situated at approximately $76,684, indicating a potential rally. Related Reading: Ikigai Founder Explains Why Bitcoin And Crypto Are ‘On The Verge Of Cannibalism’ The analyst points out that understanding the implications of a Bollinger Band Squeeze could be crucial for traders, as such periods of low volatility often end in sharp price moves. “If you didn’t like the Cloud ultimatum, here’s the weekly BBands,” remarked Olszewicz. Both charts, though using different analytical tools, converge on a similar narrative: Bitcoin is at a potential turning point that could define its price action for the coming days or weeks. The current levels close to the upper boundaries of both the Ichimoku Cloud and the Bollinger Bands underscore the tension in the market. At press time, BTC traded at $65,494. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin is under immense selling pressure at spot rates, tracking lower from the all-important resistance level of $66,000. Although BTC may even crash below the psychological line at $60,000 towards $56,500 or May 2024 lows, some analysts are upbeat. Bitcoin Drop Is Normal Post-Halving: Analyst Taking to X, one analyst explained that the current correction […]
Thanks to the summer heatwaves in North America, Bitcoin miners may begin to record a considerable increase in their revenue. This extreme weather condition is also expected to significantly impact Bitcoin’s hash rate. Bitcoin Miners To See Increase In Profit Thanks To Lower Competition Bitcoin miners are expected to see an increase in profit because […]
Bitcoin hodlers face "boredom and apathy" but are not engaging in mass distribution — even as the BTC price dip erodes unrealized profits.
Bitcoin returns to $64,000 for the first time since mid-May as a BTC price rebound gets canceled out in hours.
Bitcoin flirts with the lower end of the stubborn BTC price trading range as traders strain to see signs of change.
On-chain data shows that the Bitcoin taker buy/sell ratio has experienced a significant surge on a particular crypto exchange. Here’s how it could impact the price of the premier cryptocurrency. Bitcoin Investors Buying The Dip On This Exchange Prominent crypto pundit Ali Martinez took to the X platform to reveal that investors on a particular […]
Bernstein analysts Gautam Chhugani and Mahika Sapra recently revised their price targets for Bitcoin in their latest market report, which also initiated coverage on MicroStrategy. These analysts also outlined factors that they believe could contribute to BTC’s exponential price surge. Bitcoin To Hit $200,000 And Then $1 Million Chhugani and Sapra predicted in the report that BTC will rise to a cycle high of $200,000 by 2025 and that the flagship crypto will reach $1 million by 2033. Bernstein had previously predicted that Bitcoin would reach $150,000 by 2025. However, these analysts have now revised their targets and alluded to the institutional demand for BTC as one of the reasons they believe the flagship crypto can reach such heights. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Lists The Cardano Developments That Will Drive ADA Price To $3 In 2024 The research firm predicts that the Spot Bitcoin ETFs will continue to record impressive demand and that the Bitcoin under management could reach $190 billion by 2025, a significant increase from the $60 billion in BTC that funds issuers already have under management. In other words, these analysts expect BTC’s price to succumb to the supply and demand dynamics, considering that the Bitcoin in circulation is bound to drastically reduce as these Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to accumulate a significant amount of the crypto token for their respective ETFs. Moreover, two Bitcoin halvings are set to occur before 2033, further reducing miners’ supply and thereby supporting their base case of BTC hitting $1 million. MicroStrategy To Benefit From BTC’s Growth These Berstein analysts also initiated coverage on MicroStrategy with an outperform rating. They predict that the software company’s stock can rise to $2,890 thanks to its BTC exposure. A rise to $2,890 represents about a 95% increase for MicroStrategy’s stock, which is currently valued at around $1,500. The research firm noted that MicroStrategy has committed itself to “building the world’s largest Bitcoin company.” This has already paid off so far, with Chhugani and Sapra stating that the software company has transformed from a “small software company to the largest BTC holding company” since August 2020 (when it started accumulating BTC). MicroStrategy already owns 1.1% of Bitcoin’s total supply, with holdings worth around $14.5 billion. The company’s BTC holdings are expected to increase soon enough, as they recently announced plans to offer $500 million of Convertible Senior Notes. Some of the proceeds from the proposed sale will be used to buy additional BTC. Related Reading: Ethereum Withdrawals From Coinbase Top $1.2 Billion, What’s Going On? Berstein highlighted how the company’s co-founder Michael Saylor has become synonymous with the Bitcoin brand and that the company’s position as the leading Bitcoin company has helped attract “at scale capital (both debt and equity) for an active Bitcoin acquisition strategy.” In dollar terms, Bernstein noted that MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin net asset value (NAV) per share “has grown nearly fourfold, surpassing the 2.4x growth in Bitcoin’s spot price.” “We believe MSTR’s long term convertible debt strategy allows it enough time to gain from Bitcoin upside, with limited liquidation risk to its Bitcoin on balance sheet.” Chhugani and Sapra added. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst TechDev has provided insights into the Bitcoin future trajectory. The analyst suggested that the flagship crypto has yet to reach its full potential in this market cycle and that more price surges lie ahead for the crypto token. Not Yet Time For A Bitcoin Blowoff Top TechDev remarked in an X (formerly Twitter) post that the Bitcoin blowoff tops only happen after the four-week Chaikin money flow (CMF) breaks a line he highlighted on the accompanying chart. His analysis suggests that Bitcoin is still bound to make a parabolic move to the upside before it experiences a significant decline. Related Reading: Solana On-Chain Indicators Suggests A Return Of Bullish Sentiment, Is It Time To Buy SOL? Blowoff tops are a chart pattern that shows the rapid increase in an asset’s price followed by a sharp drop in its price. TechDev’s chart showed that something similar happened in the previous bull cycles, with Bitcoin enjoying a parabolic uptrend for about a year before its price dropped sharply. Similarly, based on TechDev’s chart, Bitcoin is again set to enjoy a parabolic uptrend from now to sometime in 2025 before it reaches its market top and begins to decline significantly. In another X post, the analyst suggested that the time has almost for Bitcoin to enjoy its next leg up. As crypto analyst Rekt Capital claimed, this next move to the upside will take Bitcoin into the ‘parabolic uptrend’ phase of this market cycle. Interestingly, this breakout for Bitcoin could happen sooner than expected, with TechDev claiming that in 18 days, Bitcoin will have a chance at a breakout that it has only seen once in its entire history. From a chart he shared, TechDev hinted at Bitcoin rising to as high as $190,000 in this bull run. It is also worth mentioning that crypto analyst CrediBULL Crypto recently predicted that a Bitcoin breakout is imminent. He said Bitcoin would “absolutely giga send” in seven to ten days and rise to as high as $100,000 when this move happens. Bitcoin’s Breakout May Still Take A While Crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently stated that Bitcoin’s breakout from this Re-Accumulation range would occur in September 2024 if history repeats itself. The crypto analyst claimed that Bitcoin’s struggle to break out from this Re-Accumulation range is “beneficial for the overall cycle.” Related Reading: DOGE To The Moon: This Dogecoin Metric Just Turned Bullish For The First Time Since 2020 He noted that Bitcoin has never broken out this early in the post-halving period. Rekt Capital remarked that a Bitcoin breakout this early means that this cycle would be accelerated and that the bull market would be shorter than usual. As such, he believes that this lengthy consolidation is helping Bitcoin’s price resynchronize with historical halving cycles so that the market can experience a “normal and usual bull run.” At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $66,900, down almost 1% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com