In a new essay, Arthur Hayes, the co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, has outlined a bullish future for Bitcoin and altcoins. His analysis, focused on the interplay between government liquidity operations and asset prices, suggests a looming bull market in the crypto space, driven by strategic fiscal maneuvers by the US Treasury. When Will The Bitcoin Bull Run Return? Hayes compares the quality of water in brewing coffee to the liquidity in financial markets, illustrating that just as the quality of water is crucial for making a good cup of coffee, liquidity is essential for the health and movement of financial markets. Hayes pointed out that many investors underestimate the impact of liquidity and often focus narrowly on more visible factors like technological advancements or regulatory changes. Hayes explains the concept of “fiscal dominance,” a situation where the government’s need to finance itself supersedes all other economic considerations, including the control of inflation. He specifically critiques the current policies under US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, whose tactics, according to Hayes, focus on generating nominal economic growth regardless of the inflationary outcomes. Related Reading: BTC’s Next Objective? Analyst Eyes Crucial $70,000 Resistance Zone For Bitcoin “During a period of fiscal dominance, the necessity to fund the state overrides any concerns the central bank may have about inflation,” Hayes explains. He details how this shift impacts liquidity, stating, “That means bank credit and, by extension, nominal GDP growth must be sustained at high levels even if it results in persistently higher than target inflation.” Drawing a direct connection between Treasury actions and crypto market movements, Hayes highlighted the correlation between the issuance of Treasury bills (T-bills) and Bitcoin price movements. He noted that when the Treasury increases T-bill issuance, it effectively shifts liquidity from instruments like the Reverse Repo Program (RRP) into more active uses, which historically corresponds with increases in Bitcoin prices. “As the RRP (white) fell from its high, Bitcoin (gold) pumped off the lows. As you can see, it’s a very tight relationship. As money leaves the Fed’s balance sheet, it adds liquidity, which causes […] Therefore, taking Bad Gurl Yellen’s word, we know that $301bn of T-bills will be net issued between now and year-end. If this relationship holds true, Bitcoin will quickly retrace the dump caused by the yen strengthening. The next stop for Bitcoin is $100,000″ Hayes speculates. When Altcoin Season? Therefore, Hayes advises crypto traders to pay close attention to fiscal and monetary policies, especially the actions of the US Treasury, as these are often precursors to significant market movements. Monitoring T-bill issuance and Treasury maneuvers can provide crypto investors with clues about upcoming shifts in market liquidity and potential price movements, according to Hayes. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Again Show Extreme Fear As BTC Slips To $59,000 Shifting focus to the broader crypto market, Hayes also discusses the potential for an ‘alt szn’ or altcoin season, which he predicts will follow a rally in Bitcoin and Ethereum prices. “Shitcoins are higher beta Bitcoin crypto plays. But during this cycle, Bitcoin and now Ether have structural bids in the form of net inflows into US-listed exchange-traded funds (ETF). While Bitcoin and Ether have corrected since April, they escaped the carnage experienced in the shitcoin markets.” Commenting on the potential of a full blown altcoin season like in previous cycles, Hayes assures that the time will come. However, altcoin season will only return after Bitcoin and Ether “decidedly break through $70,000 and $4,000, respectively.” He adds, “the combination of a dollar liquidity-inspired Bitcoin and Ether rally into year-end will create a strong foundation for the return of a sexy shitcoin soiree.” Interestingly, Hayes plans to capitalize on the US elections. He expects that the crypto bull run will exit its “sideways-to-downward trajectory” in September. “The US election occurs in early November. Yellen will be at peak manipulation in October. There will be no better time for liquidity this year. Therefore, I shall sell into strength. I will not liquidate my entire crypto portfolio but take profits in my more speculative momentum trades,” he revealed. Hayes further anticipates a more substantial market adjustment post US election and the US debt ceiling resolutions, “Once the US debt ceiling charade is over, liquidity will gush from the Treasury and possibly the Fed to get markets back on track. Then, the bull market will begin for realz. $1 million Bitcoin is still my base case.” At press time, BTC traded at $58,783. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin buyers might be upbeat after the uptick on August 8. While traders are waiting for a conclusive close above $63,000, confirming bulls of the second half of last week, on-chain data points to risk and traders staying on the sidelines. Traders Cautious: Will The Bitcoin Consolidation Continue? Taking to X, one on-chain analyst said. However, traders are bullish and expecting immediate price expansion; key metrics show that most are more cautious, meaning the uptrend might be delayed. Related Reading: Optimism Suffers 21% Loss – Will On-Chain Activity Regain Investor Trust? One key indicator, the Bitcoin Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR), a dynamic ratio between the Bitcoin open interest in futures exchanges and the Bitcoin exchange reserves across leading platforms like Binance and Exchange, has been decreasing, recently falling by 1.5%. Usually, whenever the Bitcoin ELR falls, traders are more confident, meaning traders are more risk-on and unwilling to gain more exposure via leveraged positions. While open interest and ELR are falling, the analyst notes that funding rates across leveraged futures platforms remain neutral. This shows that the broader market is balanced. Most importantly, active traders are cautious, adopting a wait-and-see approach, and are mainly hesitant. This state of affairs, the analyst said, could persist until the end of the month as traders wait for clear signals before diving in. Miner Reserve Falling, USDT And USDC Inflow Spikes: Will BTC Rise? The continuous drop in the Bitcoin Miner Reserve is added to this current state of affairs. The decrease comes when miners have been actively selling after the Halving event on April 20. Related Reading: Toncoin Rally Thwarted As TON Slips To $6, Can Bulls Prevent A Bearish Breakdown? As revenue fell due to the halving of miner rewards, weak miners sold to stay afloat. Bitcoin prices tanked by nearly 20% throughout June amid a wave of miner liquidation. It remains to be seen whether prices will bounce higher. However, as long as miners hold fewer coins, supply constraints exist. This development may increase prices if institutions demand more coins via spot Bitcoin ETFs. As prices flatline, there is hope. Over the past few weeks, there have been massive inflows of stablecoins across leading exchanges, averaging $53 billion per day. Demand could be reinvigorated as more USDT and USDC flow into Binance and other competitors. Subsequently, this may spark another wave of higher highs above crucial resistance levels in the coming days and weeks. Feature image from DALLE, chart from TradingView
A crypto analyst has unveiled a highly optimistic forecast for Bitcoin (BTC), suggesting that the end of the supposed Bitcoin bear trap could propel the price of the cryptocurrency to new highs, potentially reaching $72,000. Bitcoin Set To Hit $72,000 In a recent X (formerly Twitter) post, a crypto analyst identified as ‘Sensei’ has predicted that Bitcoin will surge to $72,000 soon. The analyst shared a price chart highlighting two parallel trend lines that trace Bitcoin’s recent price movements. Related Reading: Analyst Says Dogecoin Price Will Surge 2,500% To $2.55, Here’s When The analyst rooted his optimistic projections in the potential for a bullish surge in Bitcoin following the recent market bear trap. Given Bitcoin’s earlier crash of over 20%, many analysts, including Sensei, have speculated that this sharp drop might actually be a bear trap. The crypto analyst indicated in another X post that Bitcoin was moving past this supposed bear trap, suggesting that the cryptocurrency could reach the $72,000 target once the bear trap concludes. Furthermore, Sensei disclosed that Bitcoin was 24% from reaching a new all time high this bullish cycle. This implies that the pioneer cryptocurrency was on the path to surpass its March’s all time high which saw its price skyrocketing by more than $73,000. In his daily posts on X, the analyst shows unwavering support for Bitcoin, persistently urging investors to HODL their cryptocurrencies in preparation for a potential bullish surge. He predicts that the biggest bull run will start following Bitcoin’s breakout between the price of $70,000 and $78,000. Additionally, he has provided a potential timeline for this substantial bull run, forecasting that the Bitcoin bull run might commence by the end of August 2024. While $72,000 may be a short term price target for Bitcoin, Sensei remains highly bullish on the cryptocurrency’s long term future outlook, anticipating a substantial rise to $150,000. Despite hopes of a price recovery and subsequent bullish rally, Bitcoin has dropped below $60,000, according to CoinMarketCap. As of writing, the cryptocurrency is trading at $58,773, recording a significant 4.11% decrease in the last 24 hours. Analysts Stay Positive On BTC’s Future Outlook In the face of price declines and large-scale market liquidations, analysts maintain a positive outlook for Bitcoin’s price, predicting massive uptrends once the market downturn subsides. Related Reading: Ethereum Vs. Solana: Legendary Trader Peter Brandt Reveals The ‘Clear Winner’ Popular crypto analyst, Michael van de Poppe expects Bitcoin to experience a major bullish breakout following a period of consolidation. The analyst indicated that the market could be on the cusp of a significant Bitcoin bull run, potentially propelling its price above $250,000. Sharing a similar sentiment, a crypto analyst identified as ‘Milkybull Crypto’ noted that Bitcoin’s price was gaining strength following its higher low on a 3-day chart. The analyst has projected that the cryptocurrency is poised to witness a short term price consolidation before experiencing an upward movement. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc. (NASDAQ: MARA), the world’s largest public listed Bitcoin miner with a market cap of more than $5 billion, has announced a strategic financial initiative to bolster its Bitcoin holdings through the issuance of $250 million in convertible senior notes. Thus, Fred Thiel, Chairman and CEO of Marathon Digital is adopting a […]
Bitcoin’s correction appears to be losing steam, as indicated by price momentum divergence, the formation of a Doji candlestick and other bullish patterns.
BTC price expectations demand a trip below $60,000 before upside continuation, but a market top and bottom metric says the worst is over.
Not many in the industry anticipated the Bitcoin crash last week or how far it will eventually go. However, crypto analyst Ali Martinez is one of the analysts who expected another crash, and had seemingly managed to predict where the price would eventually bottom. Following his correct prediction, Martinez has now revealed where he expects […]
Bitcoin is still due to close a daily chart "death cross," but $62,000 resistance could be key to mitigating the BTC price downside which has followed in the past.
With Bitcoin (BTC) witnessing new gains as its price recovers from bearish trends, Michael Saylor, co-founder and former Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of MicroStrategy, is reaping the benefits. Saylor has been a vocal supporter and investor of Bitcoin for years. As the value of the cryptocurrency surges, so does his considerable BTC stash. How Much […]
A crypto analyst has maintained a bullish outlook on Bitcoin (BTC), the world’s largest cryptocurrency, predicting massive rallies in the future. The analyst projects that Bitcoin could rise as fast as it fell, mirroring the speed of its crash as it regains all the value shed during its decline. Bitcoin Set For Rapid Recovery In an X (formerly Twitter) post on August 6, a crypto analyst identified as ‘The Crypto Dog’ has shared an optimistic forecast on the future outlook of Bitcoin. The analyst believes that Bitcoin may recover quickly from its recent market declines, highlighting that the pioneer cryptocurrency would regain its lost ground at a pace as swift as its previous crash. Related Reading: Dogecoin Bounces Off Key Support Following Crash Below $0.1 The analyst’s bullish outlook on Bitcoin’s price comes after the cryptocurrency quickly rebounded from its former lows and maintained a crucial support level around the $54,000 price mark. Bitcoin’s resilience at maintaining a price above the $54,000 level could be a possible bullish signal, considering the cryptocurrency fell drastically below $50,000 in the previous weeks. In recent days, Bitcoin has shown remarkable strength after witnessing a crash that led to more than 20% of its value wiped. Despite the substantial price decline, the cryptocurrency appears to be on a major recovery trend, steadily approaching the $60,000 point once again. Earlier this year, Bitcoin rapidly rose to an all time high above $73,000, driven by the approval and launch of Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Following this rally to a new ATH, Bitcoin underwent its cyclic halving event which at the time was considered a bullish event that could propel the price of the cryptocurrency even higher. Despite analysts’ bullish projections of Bitcoin during this bullish cycle, the cryptocurrency has faced major liquidations, driving its price down to new lows. Nonetheless, whales continue to buy Bitcoin at a rapid pace, taking advantage of the lower prices and accumulating over 30,000 BTC worth about $1.62 million. Analyst Says Now Is The Best Time To Buy BTC A crypto analyst, identified as ‘the on-chain college’ has highlighted the most opportune time to invest in Bitcoin. The analyst suggests that if investors expect Bitcoin to rally to new highs within the next 6 to 12 months, now could be the perfect time to buy the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Cardano Price Crash Below $0.3: Is It Time For You To Buy ADA? Sharing a chart of Bitcoin’s price movements, the analyst mentions the Mayer Multiple, a unique metric that compares Bitcoin’s current price to its 200-day moving average. He disclosed that Bitcoin’s Mayer Multiple is currently at its lowest level since the bottom of the 2022 bear market. This implies that a low Mayer Multiple indicates that Bitcoin is undervalued, making it a potentially good opportunity to buy the cryptocurrency. At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is trading at $57,241, marking a 10.89% decrease over the past seven days, according to CoinMarketCap. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
In a striking proposal at the 2024 Asia Blockchain Summit, Samson Mow, CEO of Bitcoin technology company JAN3, recommended that Taiwan should adopt BTC as part of its national reserve strategy by purchasing 83,000 units of the cryptocurrency. This figure is directly tied to Taiwan’s gold reserves, which are significantly higher relative to those of […]
Following the Bitcoin price crash below $60,000, hopes for the BTC price to reach a new all-time high, at least for the short-term, seem to have been shattered. However, over the long term, analysts still expect that the Bitcoin price will still rebound from here. One of those who believe that the BTC price will still reach a new all-time high is CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young, but there is a caveat to this rally. Bitcoin Price Must Hold $45,000 In an X (formerly Twitter) post, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young revealed that the Bitcoin price remains bullish even after the crash. The major level is the $45,000 level, though, as holding this level will be a defining factor for whether the bearishness continues or if Bitcoin makes its way to a new all-time high. Related Reading: Cardano Price Crash Below $0.3: Is It Time For You To Buy ADA? The reason for the $45,000 caveat is miners’ profitability levels, which are currently sitting at $43,000. This $43,000 is the cost to mine a single Bitcoin by taking into account all of the operating costs. This means that as long as the BTC price remains above $45,000, miners remain in profit from any mined BTC. However, a fall in price below the $45,000 level will initially put the Bitcoin price dangerously close to the cost of mining a BTC. Further decline could put it below the $43,000 level, at which time it would become unprofitable for miners to mine BTC, and possibly affecting the hash rate. The CEO recognizes that some signals are still bearish for the Bitcoin price. However, he believes that if the pioneer cryptocurrency is able to maintain the $45,000 level without breaking for the next two weeks, then a rebound could be in the works. Following this, Young believes that the BTC price could reach a new all-time high before 2024 ends. Bearish Signal Not Seen Since 2023 Returns The X post which the CryptoQuant CEO was responding to was from Julio Moreno, who is the Head of Research at CryptoQuant. In the post, Moreno took a rather bearish stance, identifying a peculiar bearish signal which had not been seen in more than one year. Related Reading: XRP Prediction: Analyst Says Bullish Divergences Are Still Present, Here’s Why The Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator is one that can signal a return of the bear market. The researcher points at the COVID sell-off of 2020 as one of the instances when this indicator has turned bearish. Going by this historical performance, the Bitcoin and crypto market could be gearing up for another extended bear market, which would mean that the market decline is far from over. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
After enduring a substantial drop to a seven-month low earlier this week, Bitcoin (BTC) showed resilience by reclaiming ground above the $57,000 threshold on Tuesday, sparking optimism among bullish investors who hoped that the worst of the downturn was behind them. However, the leading cryptocurrency has quickly retraced over 3% in the past few hours, slipping back towards the $54,900 level, suggesting a possible continuation of the prevailing downtrend. BTC’s CME Gap & Bearish Indicators Crypto analyst Rekt Capital weighed in on the situation, noting Bitcoin’s repeated retracements following unsuccessful attempts to stabilize at higher levels. Rekt Capital pointed out that Bitcoin stands on the verge of filling the CME Gap positioned between $53,700 and $54,600. While acknowledging the proximity of the current price at $54,900 to this gap, there’s uncertainty surrounding the necessity of filling it, especially considering its relatively minor size. Related Reading: BREAKING: XRP Price Rallies 27% As Ripple Secures Major Win In SEC Lawsuit The analyst mused on the possibility that this downward movement could merely signify a volatile daily retest around the $55,800 support level, which aligns with the lows seen in early July. However, if the CME Gap does require filling, doing so sooner rather than later, while the price remains in close proximity, could be a strategic move, according to Rekt’s analysis. Adding to the bearish indicators, Julio Moreno, Head of Research at data analytics firm CryptoQuant, highlighted a significant observation regarding the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. Moreno flagged a bear phase for the first time since January 2023. Previous instances of the indicator signaling bear phases coincided with major market events like the COVID-induced sell-off in March 2020 and the Chinese mining ban in May 2021, accurately predicting the onset of bearish trends in November 2021. $50,000 Bitcoin Support At Risk? Crypto firm Material Indicators has also shared bearish predictions in the near term for the Bitcoin price, raising red flags concerning Bitcoin’s bullish momentum. Observing a scenario where Bitcoin bulls are seemingly under siege, the firm notes a stabilization in BTC bids around the $50,000 mark. However, the cautionary tone emerges as they brace for a potential dip towards a crucial support level at $45,000 if the $50,000 mark fails to hold firm. Related Reading: Bitcoin Funding Rates Turn Negative: Shorts’ Turn To Get Squeezed? Adding to the market sentiments, market expert Jesse Olson has detected a pending sell signal on Bitcoin’s weekly Heikin Ashi chart. This signal, if confirmed, would mark only the fifth such occurrence since 2021, indicating a significant shift in market dynamics. Ultimately, it becomes increasingly apparent that Bitcoin must exhibit robust bullish momentum in the days ahead to counteract the intensification of the current downtrend. Revisiting its all-time high levels of $73,700, achieved in March, now appears contingent upon sustained upward movements to offset the prevailing market pressures. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
In a bold display of faith in the future of the largest cryptocurrency on the market, Bitcoin (BTC), MicroStrategy co-founder and executive chairman Michael Saylor has disclosed that he owns around $1 billion. Saylor’s Bitcoin Vision Unshaken In a recent interview with Bloomberg Television, Saylor disclosed that he has been steadily accumulating Bitcoin over the past several years and has no plans to sell any of his holdings soon. “I continue to acquire more,” Saylor stated. “I think it’s a great capital investment asset for an individual, family, institutional corporation or country. I can’t see a better place to put my money.” Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Bottom Is Not In, Will Price Crash Below $50,000 Again? Saylor’s personal BTC stash is in addition to the over 226,000 BTC held by MicroStrategy, the enterprise software firm he co-founded and led as CEO until recently transitioning to the executive chairman role. MicroStrategy began amassing Bitcoin in 2020 to hedge against inflation and has since emerged as the largest publicly traded corporate holder of the cryptocurrency. The company’s Bitcoin holdings are currently valued at around $13 billion. Despite the recent volatility and price declines in the cryptocurrency market, Saylor remains unwavering in his conviction about Bitcoin’s long-term potential. He views it as a superior store of value and investment asset compared to traditional options like cash, bonds, or even gold. ‘Death Cross’ Analysis & Short-Term Sell Signals Amid Monday’s broader market crash, market expert Timothy Peterson noted in a social media post that Bitcoin had formed a “death cross,” where the 50-day average exceeds the 200-day average. Interestingly, Peterson notes that this rare event has only taken place eight times since 2015. Historical data analyzed by Peterson revealed that Bitcoin experienced a positive outcome approximately 62% of the time following previous’ death cross’ instances. Notably, downturns were observed during bear market years such as 2014, 2019, and 2022. Nevertheless, Peterson expressed skepticism about a repeat of such downturns, suggesting that Bitcoin plummeting below $40,000 by year-end seems improbable. Instead, he projected a potential surge to over $90,000 by the year’s close, drawing parallels to past bullish trends following similar patterns. Related Reading: Cardano Price Crash Below $0.3: Is It Time For You To Buy ADA? Despite these optimistic projections, the short-term outlook for Bitcoin faced a dose of caution from crypto analyst Ali Martinez. On Tuesday, Martinez raised concerns as the TD Sequential indicator signaled a sell order on Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart. This indicator, which assesses potential trend exhaustion points, hinted at an impending correction as Bitcoin’s price surged above $57,000 on Tuesday. The analyst’s warning proved prescient as Bitcoin underwent a retracement of nearly 3% within the last 24 hours, hitting a daily low of $54,700. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin appears on the verge of confirming a death cross, but one analyst says historical data suggests it's nothing to worry about.
In his latest essay “Spirited Away,” Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of BitMEX, dives into the complexities of the global financial markets, with a focus on the impending unwinding of the dollar-yen carry trade and its impact on the crypto market. Hayes begins by discussing the potential actions of the US Vice President Kamala Harris in response to an impending financial crisis, influenced by her need to secure electoral victory. He predicts, “Harris will instruct Yellen to use the monetary tools available to her to avert a financial crisis,” suggesting an immediate response to stabilize the markets expected “no later than the opening of Asian trading next Monday, August 12th.” Related Reading: Bitwise CIO Believes The Crypto Crash Sets The Stage For Bitcoin To Thrive – Key Reasons Why The analysis revolves around the ‘yen carry trade,’ where Japan Inc. borrows yen at low rates to invest in higher-yielding foreign assets. This trade has been massively profitable due to the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) policies that keep yen liabilities low and asset returns high, facilitated by a weak yen. However, Hayes points out the vulnerabilities of this strategy: “If the BOJ ceases its bond purchases, the unwinding could lead to significant yen appreciation and a corresponding decline in global equity markets.” Hayes outlines the potential dire consequences of a sudden strengthening of the yen, predicting drastic impacts on global stock markets. He quantifies these impacts, stating, “If the dollar-yen reached 100, a 38% move, the Nasdaq would drop to ~12,600 and the Nikkei to ~25,365,” indicating severe repercussions for global financial stability. According to the former BitMEX CEO, the full unwind of the dollar-yen carry trade is a question of when, not if. “The question is when the Fed and Treasury will print money to blunt its effects on Pax Americana,” he adds and describes a scenario where the US equity markets could crash into this upcoming Friday. “Then some sort of action over the weekend is probable,” according to Hayes. He further theorizes on a more long-term scenario: “If the yen starts to weaken again, the crisis is over in the immediate term. The unwind will continue, albeit at a slower pace. I believe the markets will throw another tantrum between September and November as the dollar-yen pair resumes its death march toward 100. There will definitely be a response this time around, as the US presidential election will be weeks or days away.” How To Trade Crypto In This Environment Hayes describes the situation as complex due to two conflicting liquidity forces. “Trading this in a crypto fashion is difficult. Two opposing forces influence my crypto positioning,” he states. First, there is the “Liquidity Positive Force”. This force emerges from the US Treasury’s potential actions, which could inject significant dollar liquidity into the market. Hayes notes, “After a quarter of net restrictive policy, the US Treasury will net inject dollar liquidity because it will issue Treasury bills and possibly deplete the Treasury General Account.” This influx of liquidity could buoy markets, including cryptocurrencies, by providing more capital for investment. Related Reading: Why The 4-Year Crypto Cycle Is A Thing Of The Past: Top-Analyst Conversely, the strengthening of the yen (“Liquidity Negative Force”), driven by the unwinding of the carry trade, would necessitate a global sell-off of financial assets as higher yen costs make debt servicing more expensive. This force could lead to a withdrawal of liquidity from markets, exerting downward pressure on asset prices, including cryptocurrencies. Hayes proposes that the interplay of these forces will dictate the behavior of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. He categorizes potential outcomes into two scenarios: Convex-Bitcoin Scenario: In this scenario, Bitcoin could rise in value regardless of whether the dollar-yen pair strengthens or weakens, indicating that the market expects a bailout if the yen strengthens and that the liquidity provided by the US Treasury is sufficient to counteract the negative impacts. Correlated-Bitcoin Scenario: Here, Bitcoin’s price movements would align closely with traditional financial markets. A strengthening yen would lead to a fall in Bitcoin prices, and a weakening yen would result in a rise, mirroring the liquidity shifts in traditional finance. “If the setup is convex-Bitcoin, I will aggressively add positions as we have reached the local bottom. If the setup is correlated-Bitcoin, then I will sit on the sidelines and wait for the eventual market capitulation. The mega assumption is that the BOJ will not reverse course, cut deposit rates back to 0%, and resume unlimited JGB purchases. If the BOJ sticks by the plan it laid out at its last meeting, the carry trade unwind will continue,” Hayes concludes. At press time, BTC traded at $57,200. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin faces issues with liquidity despite an admirable comeback from six-month lows — can BTC price upside last?
After Monday’s market crash, concerns about the stability of Bitcoin’s bull run have emerged. Yet, Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, a leading blockchain analytics firm, maintains a positive outlook. He suggests that, despite the recent crash, on-chain data continues to support the notion that the bull market for Bitcoin remains intact. Bitcoin On-Chain Analysis: Bullish Arguments #1 Bitcoin Hashrate The Bitcoin hashrate, which gauges the computational power utilized in mining and processing transactions, is nearing an all-time high (ATH). Ju notes, “Miner capitulation is nearly over, with hashrate nearing ATH. US mining costs are ~$43K per BTC, so hashrate likely stable unless prices dip below this.” #2 Whale Behavior Significant Bitcoin inflows into custody wallets are another argument to be bullish, indicating strong accumulation by large-scale investors, often referred to as ‘whales’. Ju highlights, “Significant BTC inflows into custody wallets. Permanent Holder addresses increased by 404K BTC, including 40K BTC in US spot ETFs over the last 30 days. New whales are accumulating.” Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Really Safe? New Insights from ‘Black Swan’ Author on Recent Crash #3 Retail Investor Participation The current subdued participation of retail investors is similar to patterns observed in mid-2020. Ju remarks, “Retail investors are mostly absent, similar to mid-2020.” This absence might contribute to less volatility, as retail trading often leads to rapid price swings. #4 Old Whales Still HODL Between March and June, long-term holders (those who have held for over three years) transferred their Bitcoin holdings to newer investors. Currently, there is no significant selling pressure from these veteran holders. Bearish On-Chain Data #1 Macro Risks On the downside, Ju points out macroeconomic risks and recent market activities that could impact Bitcoin’s price stability: “Macro risks could lead to forced sell-offs. There were large crypto deposits by Jump Trading recently, and Binance hit YTD high in daily deposits.” Related Reading: Bitwise CIO Believes The Crypto Crash Sets The Stage For Bitcoin To Thrive – Key Reasons Why #2 Borderline On-Chain Indicators While some on-chain indicators have recently turned bearish, these are borderline, according to Ju. He asserts, “Some on-chain indicators turned bearish but are borderline. If bearish trends persist for over two weeks, market recovery could be challenging.” #3 Bull-Bear Cycle Indicator Flags Bear Phase Notably, the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator has also flagged a bear phase for the first time since January 2023 (high blue area in the chart), warranting close observation. CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno added that this indicator has previously identified limited bear phases during significant market events like the COVID sell-off in March 2020 and the Chinese mining ban in May 2021. Moreover, it also correctly anticipated the start of the bear market in November 2021. Despite these bearish undercurrents, Ju remains cautiously optimistic about the potential of Bitcoin to reach a new all-time high until the end of the year. “As long as the Bitcoin price stays above $45K, it could break its all-time high again within a year, imo. Some indicators are showing bearish signals. However, they could still recover with a rebound, so we need to watch if it stays at this level for a week or two. If it lingers longer, the risk of a bear market grows, and recovery may be difficult if it lasts over a month,” Ju concludes. At press time, BTC traded at $56,639. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The Bitcoin crash may be over, as a crypto trader has predicted a significant rebound for the pioneer cryptocurrency, foreseeing Bitcoin soaring to new all-time highs of $90,000. This bullish projection comes amid the recent downtrend in the price of Bitcoin, which saw a dramatic crash below $50,000 at some point over the past few weeks. $90,000 Rebound Target Set For BTC In an X (formerly Twitter) post on August 5, crypto analyst, Peter Brandt made a bold prediction, suggesting that Bitcoin could witness a significant rebound to $90,000 this bull cycle. Sharing a price chart depicting a series of pumps and dumps in Bitcoin’s value since the beginning of the year, Brandt foresees the pioneer cryptocurrency hitting $90,000 before the end of 2024. Related Reading: Dogecoin Open Interest Sees Sharp 24% Drop, Where Does Price Go From Here? During his post, Brandt emphasized the importance of focusing on what could potentially happen (possibilities), rather than what is likely to happen (probabilities) or what is believed to be certain (certainties). This unique approach to analyzing the market avoids over-dependence on assumptions and remains flexible to various market results. Seeking Brandt’s opinion on the current state of the market, a crypto community member shared that they have been forecasting a bull flag for Bitcoin over the past few months. They inquired if Brandt concurred with this prediction and if a Bitcoin has reached a golden pocket, a key Fibonacci retracement level that often signals the next potential resistance level. Responding to the crypto community member, Brandt negated the possibility of a Bitcoin bull flag, citing various technical analytical authorities such as Schabacker, Edwards, and Magee, who state that bull flags should not last longer than two months. This ultimately suggests that if a supposed bull flag pattern has persisted for more than two months, then it does not meet the criteria for a bull flag. Additionally, when asked by another crypto member if a possibility was just a type of probability, Brandt clarified that possibilities could not be described as a probability because probabilities involve assigning numbers and making assumptions. Brandt has disclosed that he strictly avoids trades based on assumptions to remain open to all possible outcomes without bias. Bitcoin Regains Strength After 23% Market Crash Before Brandt predicted a rebound to $90,000 for Bitcoin, the cryptocurrency had experienced a sharp decline in its price. Over the past week, Bitcoin’s price had fallen to around $52,000, marking a significant drop of more than 23%, according to CoinMarketCap. Related Reading: VanEck CEO Compares Bitcoin Adoption To Gold, Reveals Why Price Will Touch $350,000 Despite the recent price crash, Bitcoin has seemingly regained positive momentum, recording a price increase of 11.77% in just 24 hours. Based on CoinMarketCap’s reports, Bitcoin’s daily trading volume has also surged by 30.65%. The cryptocurrency appears to be breaking out of its previous bearish trends, steadily approaching previous price highs around the $60,000 mark. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $55,903. Featured image from Skilling.com, chart from Tradingview.com
BTC price action has a habit of "filling" downside wicks within days or weeks, the Bitcoin daily chart shows.
Bitcoin short-term holders sell BTC at a loss to an extent rarely seen in history — but "diamond hands" contribute just $600,000.
Crypto traders appear to agree that today’s market rout is far from over.
Bitcoin sees a giant $30,000 crash in a week while Ethereum retreats 40% and Berkshire Hathaway's Apple sale takes on new meaning as stocks dive worldwide.
BTC price weakness takes the market below $59,000 for the first time since mid-July as "relentless" Bitcoin selling pressure persists.
The bullish outlook appears despite the ongoing Bitcoin sell-off, which is being led by the growing risks of a recession in the United States.
A popular crypto analyst on the X platform has sounded the buy alarm for Bitcoin after the premier cryptocurrency fell to the $60,000 level this weekend. Can Bitcoin Price Make A Return To $67,000? In a recent post on X, popular crypto pundit Ali Martinez shared an exciting analysis of the price of BTC over the coming days. According to the crypto analyst, the latest price action shows that the flagship cryptocurrency could be gearing for a rebound to its former highs. Related Reading: Could Bitcoin Outshine Gold? Trading Guru Weighs In On The Historic Financial Duel The reasoning behind this bullish projection is the formation of multiple buy signals by the TD (Tom Demark) Sequential on the Bitcoin four-hour chart. The TD Sequential is a technical analysis indicator used to identify possible points of trend exhaustion and price reversal. The TD Sequential consists of two phases; namely setup and countdown. For the setup, nine candlesticks of the same polarity (bullish or bearish) are counted, upon which a reversal is expected to occur. Typically, the direction of the reversal will depend on the candles involved in the setup I.e., nine bearish candles would represent a buy signal and vice versa. Upon the completion of the setup, the countdown phase commences, which involves 13 candles — rather than nine — of the same polarity. A completion of the second phase implies that there is likely another reversal point. According to Martinez, the TD Sequential has pinpointed a potential reversal for the Bitcoin price. On the four-hour chart, the indicator presents an aggressive 13, a sequential 13, and a red 9 candlestick. The aggressive 13, sequential 13, and red 9 all suggest that the current downward trend might be losing momentum, thereby hinting at a possible trend reversal in the short term. Ultimately, these signals are indicating a strong buy opportunity for premier cryptocurrency, having shed some of its value in recent days. However, if the prediction of a price rebound fails to hold and the $60,000 support crumbles, investors could see the price of Bitcoin fall as low as $57,000. BTC Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of Bitcoin continues to hover around $61,000, recording barely any movement in the last 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the premier cryptocurrency has declined in value by more than 10% in the past week. Related Reading: Solana Rebound: SOL To Hit $260 Despite Continuous Dip, Analyst Says Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin offers a modest BTC price comeback after hurtling toward $60,000 in step with stocks worldwide.
Bitcoin offers a modest BTC price comeback after hurtling toward $60,000 in step with stocks worldwide.
The last time Bitcoin whales moved this many coins from exchanges was when the BTC price was around $220 in 2015.
Bitcoin traders anticipate a potential price drop below $60,000. Will dip buyers show up?