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Chris Burniske, cofounder of Placeholder VC and former crypto lead at Ark Invest, is mapping out where he would consider stepping back into Bitcoin if the market keeps sliding, after earning fresh credit on X for calling major turning points this cycle. His framework lands in the mid-$80,000s down to the low-$50,000s, while a separate technical view from analyst Aksel Kibar points to a broader “base building” process with support clustered in the mid-$70,000s. Price Levels Where To Buy Bitcoin Burniske wrote that he is “not a buyer yet,” but outlined several price areas he’s monitoring. In his view, roughly $80,000 matters as the November 2025 low and a local trough of the current downswing. Below that, he highlighted roughly $74,000, tying it to the April 2025 low and describing it as the “Tariff Tantrum” bottom; he also noted it sits just under Strategy’s (MSTR) stated Bitcoin cost basis of around $76,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whale Demand Hits Extreme Levels As Next Rally Loads Up He then pointed to around $70,000 as the top of the prior $50,000–$70,000 band near the 2021 high, before shifting to a more structural level near $58,000. That zone, he wrote, aligns with the 200-week simple moving average and an on-chain cost basis, with RV around $56,000. Finally, he flagged $50,000 and below as a psychological line, arguing that a break under it would likely revive “death of BTC” narratives. I’m not a buyer yet, but if I were to be a buyer, imo the areas to watch for $BTC are: ~$80K: Nov ’25 low, local low of this “bear” ~$74K: April ’25 low, Tariff Tantrum low, just below $MSTR‘s cost basis (~$76K) ~$70K: Top of $50-70K range, near ’21 high ~$58K: 200W SMA &… — Chris Burniske (@cburniske) January 25, 2026 Burniske’s posture is deliberately non-committal on timing. “Importantly, I don’t care what happens,” he wrote, adding that if Bitcoin rallies he will “ride what I have and diversify,” while a deeper unwind would have him buying more Bitcoin and “select crypto assets.” The thread also touched altcoins. Asked how he thinks about alts versus Bitcoin, Burniske said it’s “best imo to buy alts after you think btc is near bottom,” reinforcing that he’s treating BTC’s downside process as the key gating factor for broader risk-taking. On positioning, he said he is sitting “in treasuries, where yield > inflation,” and when asked about an upside level that would force him back in, he replied that he “wouldn’t chase,” preferring to hold existing exposure rather than re-risk at higher prices. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stuck In Bear Mode For 83 Days: Trend Pulse Confirms Structural Weakness Burniske’s renewed attention followed praise from Anthony Pompliano, who told him: “You nailed the SOL bottom and the BTC top over this cycle.” Burniske’s reputation for calling tops is partly tied to an October 2025 post in which he argued the market had likely been structurally damaged after a sharp selloff. “We can always get another weak bounce, but I’ve taken action accordingly,” he wrote at the time. “I’ll likely get interested in the market again when I see BTC $75K or lower.” Breakdown Or Bottoming Phase? Separately, veteran technician Aksel Kibar posted a BTCUSD daily chart on Sunday without additional commentary. When asked directly about a breakout or breakdown, Kibar cautioned against overweighting diagonal formations: “Not giving too much weight to diagonal short-term patterns breakout/breakdown. I think this is part of the base building, searching for a bottom.” Kibar had previously framed “technical support” as being “lower between 73.7K and 76.5K,” suggesting that if Bitcoin is indeed in a basing phase, the market may need time and repeated tests of those lower bands before a more durable trend reasserts itself. At press time, BTC traded at $87,812. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The temporary loss of mining power underscores academic concerns that geographic and pool concentration can magnify infrastructure failures, though markets showed little immediate reaction.

A new Bitcoin price prediction has been put forward following a long-term technical analysis shared on the social media platform X by crypto analyst Leshka.eth. The analysis compares Bitcoin’s current structure on the weekly timeframe to the 2021 market peak, showing how price behavior is repeating an identical pattern.  Based on how Bitcoin has interacted with a rising multi-year channel in previous cycles, the analysis proposes a projection as to how Bitcoin could be setting up for a powerful corrective move that sends the price back to as low as $30,000. Bitcoin Weekly Structure About To Break Technical analysis of Bitcoin’s price action on the weekly candlestick timeframe chart shows that the leading cryptocurrency has been trading with higher highs and higher lows since 2018. Interestingly, this trend of higher highs has led to repeated interaction with a rising resistance trendline that has defined every major cycle top. Related Reading: Ripple’s Next Steps: Where XRP Stops Being Trade And Starts Being Infrastrucutre As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin pushes into this upper boundary during each bull market, only to be rejected once momentum fades. These rejection points are clearly marked across multiple cycles, including the 2017 and 2021 peaks. This repeated failure is a defining feature of Bitcoin’s macro cycles of exhaustion after prolonged upside expansion. Bitcoin once again rallied into this same long-term trendline when it broke to new all-time highs in October 2025 before stalling and rolling over. Bitcoin’s price failed to hold above the trendline and has corrected by about 30% since then. The leading cryptocurrency is now trading below $90,000, and this technical outlook introduces the possibility that the current pullback is not yet complete and could extend further. Bitcoin Weekly Candlestick Chart. Source: @leshka_eth on X Bitcoin Crash Extension To $30,000? The chart also highlights the depth of prior bear market declines once Bitcoin was rejected at this long-term structure. After the 2017 cycle top, Bitcoin fell roughly 84.99% from peak to trough. Following the 2021 high, Bitcoin once again declined by about 77.47% before finding a bottom near the lower boundary of the broader rising channel.  Based on the current setup, the projected downside move marked on the chart measures approximately 72.86%. Applying a drawdown of that magnitude from the recent cycle high places Bitcoin’s potential bottom around $30,000. Related Reading: Coinbase Exec Points Out The Big Difference Between Bitcoin And Central Banks Interestingly, Grok AI offered a more optimistic interpretation of Bitcoin’s near-term outlook based on responses to questions under the same technical post. According to Grok, aggregated views from sources such as CNBC, Reddit, and Forbes suggest that the probability of Bitcoin dropping into the $30,000 to $40,000 range is relatively low, estimated at around 15% to 25% by bearish cycle models. On the other hand, many analysts instead expect higher price floors, often above $50,000. Some long-term projections extend over $200,000, with names like Binance co-founder Changpeng Zhao predicting $200,000 and Tom Lee predicting $250,000 in 2026. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price extended losses and traded below $88,500. BTC is consolidating losses and might attempt a recovery wave if it clears $88,500. Bitcoin started a minor recovery wave from the $86,000 level. The price is trading below $88,200 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a new bearish trend line forming with resistance at $88,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might recover if it manages to settle above $86,200 and $86,000. Bitcoin Price Dips Further Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $89,000 support and extended losses. BTC declined sharply below the $88,500 and $87,000 support levels. The bears even pushed the price below $86,500. A low was formed at $86,007, and the price is now attempting a recovery wave. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $91,099 swing high to the $86,007 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $88,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $86,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $88,000 level. There is also a new bearish trend line forming with resistance at $88,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $88,500 level since it is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $91,099 swing high to the $86,007 low. A close above the $88,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $89,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $90,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $91,000 and $91,500. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $88,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $86,700 level. The first major support is near the $86,200 level. The next support is now near the $85,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $83,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $82,500, below which BTC struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $86,700, followed by $86,000. Major Resistance Levels – $88,500 and $89,200.

Bitcoin’s onchain data points to supply overhang and weak participation, while gold’s breakout is priced by markets as a durable macro regime shift.

The calls of a potential Bitcoin supercycle in 2026 intensified over the past week after former Binance CEO Changpeng ‘CZ’ Zhao — yet another prominent voice in crypto — laid out his predictions for the new year. However, a popular analyst on the social media platform X has released an opposing view, predicting a deep bottom for the BTC price this year. BTC Price At Risk Of Further 65% Decline In a January 25th post on the X platform, prominent crypto trader Ali Martinez said, in a sarcastic tone, that “the super cycle is super cycling.” In what seemed like a response to the buzz around CZ’s Bitcoin supercycle projection, the market pundit tempered the expectations with a $31,000 price bottom call for the premier cryptocurrency in 2026. This bearish prediction is based on the appearance of price fractals on the BTC chart. For context, fractals are repeating patterns in price charts that can help map and project potential price movements for a particular cryptocurrency (Bitcoin, in this scenario). Related Reading: Gold Becomes The Whale Safe Haven As Bitcoin Takes A Back Seat As observed in the chart above, the price of BTC is currently following a similar movement pattern as in 2022. The premier cryptocurrency, after initially setting a then all-time high around $67,000 in early 2021, witnessed a nearly 55% correction to just above the $30,000 level by mid-July. While the price of Bitcoin recovered and went back to set a record high of above $69,000 by the end of 2021, the market leader spent the majority of the following year in a downward trend. Exacerbated by the various bearish events of 2022, BTC ended the year at a low of around $15,500. Martinez believes that the Bitcoin price is undergoing a similar movement pattern, having experienced an over 32% decline before climbing to the current all-time high of $126,080. The market pundit postulates that the premier cryptocurrency is currently witnessing the extended decline that saw its price reach $15,500 in 2022. However, it is worth mentioning that the target this time around lies at $31,800, nearly 65% drop from the current price point. Hence, if the historical patterns highlighted by Martinez are to go by, there seems to be a higher likelihood of the Bitcoin price embarking on an extended downward trend rather than a supercycle. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $88,528, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Metric Suggests Miners Are In Recovery Mode — Price To Follow? Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price action has been muted over the past few days, trading within the $90,000 and $88,000 levels. Classically, consolidation periods often precede major moves either to the upside or downside of the market. As such, questions on the next trajectory of the flagship cryptocurrency are being asked. A latest on-chain evaluation has offered a positive prognosis on the next direction for the Bitcoin price.  Accumulation Demand Metric Surges To All-Time-High  In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, on-chain analyst CoinNiel hypothesized that the Bitcoin price could be at the beginning of a bullish trend. The market quant based this prognosis on two metrics — the Accumulator Address Demand and the Liquidity Inventory Ratio (month).  Related Reading: Bitcoin Metric Suggests Miners Are In Recovery Mode — Price To Follow? The Accumulator Address Demand metric monitors the net buying pressure coming from addresses that buy Bitcoin consistently, and without any significant selling. This behavior (of buying and rarely selling) is typical of the large-scale Bitcoin holders, commonly known as the whales.  Notably, CoinNiel also pointed out that when major withdrawals from exchanges occur, they are rarely ever incited by retailers, but by whales. As such, when the Bitcoin whales withdraw their holdings from exchanges, their buying pressure translates into an increase in the Accumulator Address Demand.  From the chart above, the indicator has reached an all-time high level. According to the crypto pundit, this could be a sign that the whales are currently experiencing, on intense levels, the “fear of missing out.” The second metric, the Liquidity Inventory Ratio (Month), also reinforces CoinNiel’s bullish outlook. This metric tracks and compares existing Bitcoin demand to the supply available on exchanges, showing whether demand can overwhelm available supply.  When this ratio rises sharply, it is usually a sign that demand is absorbing newly created supply. From the data shared by the analyst, the Liquidity Inventory Ratio has also reached an extreme value of 3.8. However, this extreme reading is only a reflection of what is happening on US exchanges. Hence, CoinNiel implied that, for the first time in years, US exchanges are recording exceptionally high demand relative to the coins available. In theory, a 3.8 reading implies the imminence of a supply shock in the scenario where current conditions prevail. But, the analyst highlighted that it may not necessarily happen, as a 3.8 reading is more a sign of intensified whale demand than a surefire means to predict supply shocks.  The big picture, especially when these two metrics are looked at together, appears to be distinctly bullish. This is because available data points out that the whales are likely positioning for what could be a resumed bullish trajectory for the Bitcoin price. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at $88,520, reflecting an over 1% decline in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: XRP Price Recovery Is Possible If It Reclaims This Ichimoku Base Featured image by DALL.E, chart from TradingView

US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds pulled funds for a fifth straight trading day, and the totals added up quickly. According to Farside data, about $103.5 million left on Friday, bringing the five-day sum to roughly $1.72 billion. Related Reading: Crypto Meets Private Banking: UBS Weighs New Offering Bitcoin was trading near $89,160 at the time of these reports — still well below the $100,000 mark it last reached on November 13. This movement has sent a clear signal: many investors are stepping back right now. ETF Flows And Who Is Selling Reports note that ETF flows are often on the radar as a quick read on investor mood, but the picture is not always simple. Large outflows can reflect institutional rebalancing or tactical moves by funds, not only mass retail selling. The US market had a four-day trading week because of Martin Luther King Jr. Day on Monday, which may have concentrated trades into fewer sessions and amplified the numbers. Still, losing more than a billion dollars in a few days will get attention. Market Mood And Metals The wider mood has soured. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index registered an Extreme Fear score of 25, and sentiment trackers have been flashing caution. Reports say Santiment believes retail traders are pulling back while attention drifts toward more traditional assets. Meanwhile, metals have been strong. Reports disclose that with gold trading near $5,000 and silver approaching $100, some market players feel Bitcoin has been left out of a rally that lifted metals, which has weighed on confidence in the crypto market. Source:  Alternative.me Bitcoin Price Action Bitcoin has struggled to find a steady rhythm over the past week. Prices slipped below the $89,000 to $90,000 range as traders reacted to fresh geopolitical tension and renewed trade worries, before stabilizing as nerves eased. This was driven higher after some soft political indicators around tariff threats, only to substantiate the idea that markets rarely react to conflict but rather to changes in tone and expectations. Signals That Could Matter These movements illustrate how Bitcoin behaves more like a risk asset rather than an asset shelter, falling in tandem with equities when unexpected financial shocks hit the globe, before rebounding when the fever subsides to gather fresh buyers. Related Reading: Gold Becomes The Whale Safe Haven As Bitcoin Takes A Back Seat Current price patterns indicate caution, where traders are weighing short-term political risks against medium- and long-term macro patterns, as well as institutional interests. There are some quieter indications that the rout could be losing steam. To this effect, there are assertions suggesting that supply distribution on-chain and social chatter can be circumstantial evidence showing there is less selling pressure. Featured image from Money; Shutterstock, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price is showing signs of history repeating itself, as current price action mirrors key patterns from the 2021 cluster. With resistance near $91,000–$92,000 and the macro downtrend looming, traders are watching closely to see if BTC will break higher or face renewed pressure. The coming days could prove decisive in shaping the next major move. Bitcoin Mirrors 2021 Cluster: History In Motion Bitcoin continues to mirror the price patterns seen during the 2021 cluster. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital noted that the current market structure is echoing historical behavior, suggesting that similar dynamics are at play. Traders are closely watching these familiar patterns to gauge whether the cycle is repeating itself or if new trends may emerge. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stuck In Bear Mode For 83 Days: Trend Pulse Confirms Structural Weakness The rules of the game remain consistent. A bearish acceleration would likely be triggered if Bitcoin breaks down from the macro descending triangle base, currently positioned around $82,000. Conversely, a bullish bias would require a decisive break above the macro downtrend, which sits near $100,000. These levels serve as critical decision points for the market, dictating whether bulls or bears gain control in the coming sessions. So far, Bitcoin has encountered rejection in the high $90,000s, falling just short of the macro downtrend. This mirrors previous market behavior, in which the asset developed a basing structure near the triangle’s base before attempting to push higher toward the downtrend’s upper boundary. It demonstrates that history is repeating itself for now, with the market consolidating and preparing for its next directional move. If the macro downtrend continues to act as resistance, the triangle’s base may gradually weaken over time. Such a development would increase the risk of further downside, making the reaction at both the base and the downtrend crucial.  BTC Surpasses $91,000 Before Facing Selling Pressure In a recent market update by Ted, it was noted that while Bitcoin broke above the $91,000 threshold yesterday, the rally met significant resistance. Sellers entered the market with substantial force at these local highs, effectively capping the momentum and preventing a sustained breakout. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Sharp Pullback Raises One Question: Will $92K Hold? As a result of this rejection, Bitcoin has retreated into the “no-trading zone.” Ted suggests that this period of sideways price action is likely to persist through the next couple of days, largely driven by the typical low-liquidity environment seen during the weekend. Looking ahead, the outlook remains cautious. Ted emphasizes that any upward movements will likely be short-lived until BTC can decisively clear the $91,000 to $92,000 resistance zone. Meanwhile, such a move must be backed by strong spot demand to prove its validity. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Chainlink remains on standby as daily candles continue to show indecision, keeping traders on edge. The next significant move for LINK largely depends on Bitcoin’s momentum, with bulls and bears waiting for a clear signal before committing. Until then, the market is in a holding pattern, building tension for the breakout or breakdown. Traders Await Clear Direction For Chainlink According to an update from CryptoWzrd, the daily candles for both Chainlink and LINKBTC continue to print indecisive price action, reflecting a lack of strong conviction from either side of the market. Despite recent movements, neither buyers nor sellers have been able to establish a clear directional edge, keeping the broader outlook neutral for now. Related Reading: Chainlink Drops To $12.50, But Largest Whales Are Accumulating To gain a reliable directional bias and unlock higher-probability trade opportunities, healthier and more decisive daily candles are required, as price could continue to chop within its current range. Bitcoin is expected to remain the primary driver of the next significant move. In particular, LINKBTC needs to print another bullish daily candle in the coming week to maintain any constructive momentum.  Failure to do so could shift the balance back in favor of the bears and increase downside pressure. A continuation of weakness would likely result in a break of the daily lower-high trendline, followed by a loss of the critical $12 support level.  On the bullish side, if Bitcoin provides the necessary support, LINK could attempt a recovery rally toward the $16 resistance zone. Until a clearer higher-timeframe structure emerges, the trading focus remains tactical. Attention will be placed on the lower-timeframe charts, particularly over the weekend, to capitalize on quick, short-term opportunities while avoiding unnecessary exposure to indecisive daily conditions. Intraday Chart Shows Tight Range, Market Lacks Clear Direction The analyst concluded that the intraday chart remains choppy, with price action tightly compressed within a narrow range. Such conditions point to persistent market indecision, in which neither bulls nor bears have shown sufficient conviction to drive a sustained move in either direction. As a result, trade setups lack clarity and carry elevated risk. Related Reading: Chainlink Stuck In A Micro-Range As Traders Await A Clear Trigger From a tactical perspective, a retest of the $13 resistance level, followed by clear signs of rejection or fading momentum, could open the door to a short opportunity. However, if price holds above $13 with strong acceptance, that would place the market in more constructive territory and tilt the bias back in favor of the bulls. Until one of these scenarios plays out decisively, the analyst emphasized the importance of waiting. A more mature and well-defined chart structure is needed before engaging in the next trade, ensuring better confirmation, cleaner entries, and improved risk-to-reward conditions. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

A large investor shifted funds into tokenized gold this week, and Bitcoin felt the impact. Prices dipped while a whale quietly bought millions in XAUT, a gold-backed token, signaling a short-term move toward traditional hedges. Related Reading: Bitcoin Influencers Get Spotlight In X’s New ‘Starterpacks’ Whales Move Into Tokenized Gold According to on-chain trackers, one address moved $1.53 million in USDC into Hyperliquid to buy XAUT. Reports note that the same wallet had earlier bought about 481 XAUT, a purchase worth roughly $2.38 million. The address still holds close to $1.44 million in USDC, which suggests more purchases could follow. These moves were picked up on public blockchains and then flagged by analysts watching large transfers. This kind of action can matter. When big players shuffle cash, smaller traders often take notice and hedge their bets. The shift is not proof of a long-term trend, but it shows that, at least for now, some large holders prefer gold exposure over extra crypto risk. Whales are buying gold, not crypto. ~30 mins ago, whale 0x6B99 deposited 1.53M $USDC into Hyperliquid to buy $XAUT again. He has already bought 481.6 $XAUT($2.38M) and still holds 1.44M $USDC, which may be used to buy more $XAUT.https://t.co/0uV2kNEiD0 pic.twitter.com/rYA09b1OEn — Lookonchain (@lookonchain) January 23, 2026 Gold And Silver Hit Fresh Highs Reports say gold has been moving sharply higher, with spot prices climbing close to $5,000 per ounce in global trading this week. Silver also rose above $100 per ounce, with intraday gold prints near $4,988 before settling. Traders tie the surge to geopolitical tensions and the idea that interest rates may ease, which encourages money into metal-based stores of value. A weaker dollar has also helped. Market chatter points to increased demand as investors seek steadier places to park capital while global politics and policy choices create more worry. Bitcoin’s Price Action And Market Mood Bitcoin traded around $88,653 at one stage, slipping about 1% on the day and nearly 30% below its prior cycle top. That gap is large. It has market participants questioning whether BTC will stay the go-to hedge during times of high stress. Some long-term holders remain confident. Others are watching liquidity and macro signals more closely. Reports have disclosed renewed criticism from economist Peter Schiff, who argued that Bitcoin has underperformed versus gold since 2021. He highlighted the opportunity cost for investors holding BTC while metals climb to record prices. Schiff wrote on social platforms that precious metals are outperforming and that this weak run for Bitcoin weakens its role as a store of value in the eyes of some. Related Reading: XRP Showing Strength, Analyst Points To $4 Potential What This Means For Crypto Investors Short-term rotations like this often reflect risk preferences rather than permanent shifts. Some funds and wealthy individuals seek lower-volatility assets when headlines grow louder and policy paths look uncertain. Others still view Bitcoin as a long-term play tied to scarcity and network effects. The current picture is a mix: metals are strong, tokenized gold is drawing attention, and crypto markets are reacting. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) released its delayed Personal Income and Outlays report on Jan. 22, publishing October and November PCE inflation together. The print put headline PCE at 0.2% month over month in both months, with headline PCE at 2.7% year over year in October and 2.8% in November. Core PCE was also […]
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Bitcoin’s recent price action had a familiar signature: leverage built on the bounce, funding turned supportive for longs, then the market ran the nearest pockets of fragility until forced selling took over. BTC bouncing up and down in the $80,000 range is a result of futures positioning. Data showed roughly $794 million in Bitcoin long […]
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The Bitcoin price had a relatively rough trading period over the past week, as it hovered around the psychological $90,000 mark. The flagship cryptocurrency, which looked set for a return to six-figure valuation barely over a week ago, now seems to have lost all its bullish momentum. Broadly speaking, these recent struggles put to rest questions around the “relief rallies” to the upside, and correlate more with the current bear market structure. However, the latest on-chain evaluation shows that the Bitcoin price woes could worsen from here on out. Expert Explains Why $60,000 Is Possible For BTC Price In a recent post on the X platform, Alphractal CEO and founder Joao Wedson said that the Bitcoin price could still have room to fall below the $60,000 level. This not-so-optimistic prediction is based on the number of days Bitcoin has traded at prices higher than today. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Stalls At 71%: Still Not Enough For A Sustainable Recovery According to Wedson, there have been 355 days when the Bitcoin price has traded at levels higher than today. This figure was derived from the “Days Spent at a Profit” metric, which tracks the number of days in Bitcoin’s history where the market price was higher than the current price. This indicator measures how much price action — in the past — has occurred above the current price level. From a historical standpoint, an increase in the number of “Days Spent at a Profit” tends to occur during bear cycles or extended periods of sideways movement, implying that different investor groups are holding BTC at a price higher than their cost bases. As Wedson highlighted, the “Days Spent at a Profit” metric reached around 775 days as the Bitcoin price approached a bottom. Going by this historical context, the current level of this indicator (355 days) suggests that the flagship cryptocurrency is still a distance away from extreme levels often associated with bearish market bottoms. Ultimately, this deduction means that the price of Bitcoin could still be at risk of an extended decline over the next 300 days. According to the Alphractal, this extended period of price decline could see BTC revisit $60,000, potentially triggering significant liquidations among retail investors and institutional players who entered the market post-ETF. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands at around $89,900, reflecting no significant change in the past 24 hours. However, the market leader is currently down by over 5% on the weekly timeframe, while nearly 30% adrift its all-time high of $126,080. Related Reading: Can Bitcoin Revisit $97,600? Glassnode Says Watch This Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is trading below the $90,000 level once again, as the market continues to drift through a phase defined by indecision, rising caution, and growing fear. After repeated failures to reclaim this psychological threshold, price action has started to reflect a lack of conviction on both sides, with buyers hesitating to step in aggressively and sellers pressing every rebound attempt. While the broader trend has not fully collapsed, the inability to hold key levels is increasing uncertainty around Bitcoin’s next major move. Related Reading: XRP Distribution Phase Continues, But Funding Rates Suggest Shorts Are Overextended Top analyst Darkfost argues that on-chain signals are starting to mirror conditions typically seen near the end of prolonged drawdowns. According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s unrealized profits and losses are sliding back toward levels that have historically appeared only at the exit of bear markets, when the market has already absorbed a deep reset in sentiment. This shift suggests that stress is building under the surface, even if price has not yet entered a full capitulation phase. Since Bitcoin’s last all-time high, Darkfost notes that many late-arriving investors have moved into uncomfortable territory, facing mounting downside pressure as the market cools. As a result, unrealized profits are shrinking, unrealized losses are expanding, and the overall balance continues to deteriorate—an environment that often forces traders into a decisive choice between holding through volatility or exiting under stress. Decision Point For Bitcoin Investors Darkfost highlighted a chart based on an adjusted version of NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), designed to capture investor stress more accurately during shifting market regimes. Instead of relying solely on the standard market cap, the model incorporates the realized capitalization of both Short-Term Holders (STHs) and Long-Term Holders (LTHs), then compares that blended realized foundation against Bitcoin’s traditional market cap. The result is a clearer view of how much profit or loss sits “on paper” across the market, filtered through a more structural lens. To reduce noise and better define trend shifts, the metric is smoothed using an average, producing what Darkfost refers to as aNUPL. The key takeaway is that Bitcoin is approaching levels that have historically forced investors into a binary decision. When unrealized profits compress and unrealized losses expand to these ranges, holders typically face two outcomes: hold and continue accumulating, or capitulate and lock in losses. That difference in behavior becomes critical because it shapes liquidity, sentiment, and the next directional trend. If long-term participants absorb the pressure and keep holding, the market can stabilize and rotate back into recovery. But if selling accelerates from stressed cohorts, the decline can deepen into a broader bear phase. This is why tracking realized and unrealized profit dynamics remains essential, especially during periods of uncertainty. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Stalls At 71%: Still Not Enough For A Sustainable Recovery Bitcoin Consolidates After Sharp Weekly Breakdown Bitcoin is trading around $89,000 on the weekly chart after a steep selloff that pushed the price out of its prior distribution zone. The latest candle reflects heavy downside pressure, with BTC dropping roughly 4.8% on the week and struggling to stabilize near a key pivot that has repeatedly acted as support and resistance throughout the cycle. After failing to hold above the psychological $90,000 threshold, the market is now trapped in a tight consolidation range, suggesting traders are waiting for confirmation before committing to a larger move. Related Reading: Ethereum Supply Tightens On Binance As Reserves Hit Lowest Level Since 2016 From a trend standpoint, Bitcoin remains vulnerable as it trades below the blue moving average, which is now acting as overhead resistance near the low-$100K region. The rejection from that dynamic level aligns with the broader structure: BTC topped near the mid-$120K range, then entered a sharp corrective leg that reset momentum into early 2026. While the green moving average continues to slope upward and is approaching the current price zone, the market has not yet shown the strength needed to reclaim its former trend trajectory. Importantly, the weekly structure is now compressing. If buyers can defend the $88K–$90K region and push BTC back above $92K–$95K, it would signal a recovery attempt toward the moving average band. However, a sustained failure here increases the risk of a deeper retracement toward the low-$80K zone, where prior demand previously emerged. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin continues to struggle as it attempts to reclaim the $90,000 level, with traders facing a market defined by hesitation rather than conviction. After yesterday’s bearish breakdown below $90K, price action has slipped back into indecisive territory, raising fresh questions about whether this pullback is a temporary shakeout or the start of a deeper corrective phase. Related Reading: XRP Distribution Phase Continues, But Funding Rates Suggest Shorts Are Overextended According to top analyst Axel Adler, a macro indicator called Trend Pulse helps explain why momentum has faded. Adler notes that since January 19, the market has remained in Bear Mode, with the Bull phase absent for 83 consecutive days. Two separate charts reinforce this shift, showing that both short-term momentum and quarterly performance have turned negative at the same time. Trend Pulse recently shifted from Neutral to Bear, driven by a double-negative setup: the 14-day return has flipped red, and the SMA30 versus SMA200 trend signal is also negative. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s quarterly return sits at -19%, confirming macro weakness, but without the kind of extreme that often signals a definitive bottom. Bitcoin Remains Stuck In Bear Mode As Macro Signals Stay Negative Adler notes that Bitcoin’s last Bull Mode signal was printed on November 2, 2025, when BTC traded near $110,000—roughly 83 days ago. Since then, the market has failed to regain structural strength. Even the Neutral stretch between December 30 and January 18 proved too short and too weak to restore the long-term trend, leaving Bitcoin vulnerable once selling pressure returned. Adler explains that the first trigger for improvement is the 14-day return moving back above 0, which would shift the regime from Bear to Neutral. However, a full transition back into Bull Mode requires a second condition: SMA30 breaking above SMA200. Given the current divergence between the two averages, that crossover would likely demand 3–4 weeks of sustained upside rather than a short-lived bounce. The Bitcoin Price Performance chart adds macro context by tracking quarterly return (90D) as a sentiment proxy. Historically, readings above +75% align with euphoria, while values below 0% signal pessimism, and drops below -30% reflect capitulation. Bitcoin’s quarterly return sits near -19%, negative but far from deep bear-market extremes. Yet the 7-day change (-6.8%) suggests downside momentum is accelerating after the $90K breakdown. Together, Trend Pulse and quarterly returns point to moderate pessimism without final capitulation, leaving the market at a decision point. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Stalls At 71%: Still Not Enough For A Sustainable Recovery BTC Moving Averages Cap Recovery Bitcoin is trading near $89,000 after failing to hold above the $90,000 psychological level, reinforcing the market’s current indecision. The chart shows BTC printing a lower-high structure since the early November peak, followed by a sharp selloff that reset price into a wide consolidation range. After bottoming in late November, Bitcoin rebounded but struggled to build sustained momentum, repeatedly stalling on push attempts toward the mid-$90K zone. From a trend perspective, BTC remains pressured beneath its key moving averages. Price is trading below the green long-term average and the blue mid-term average, both of which are now sloping downward, signaling that broader momentum continues to lean bearish. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Power Shift: New Whales Now Control The Market The most recent rejection occurred as BTC briefly pushed into the $95K–$97K area, only to roll over and break back down toward the range lows. Meanwhile, the red long-term average remains well above price near the low-$100Ks, highlighting how far BTC would need to recover to reestablish a stronger macro uptrend. Volume has picked up on selloffs relative to bounces, suggesting that downside moves are still being met with more urgency. For bulls, reclaiming $90K and then holding above $92K–$94K is key. Otherwise, the chart keeps risk open for a deeper pullback toward the mid-$80K region. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s push to $97,600 last week drew a burst of bullish options activity, but Glassnode argues the derivatives tape looked more like short-dated positioning than broad-based conviction. In a Jan. 23 thread, the on-chain analytics firm pointed to a split between front-end call demand and longer-dated risk pricing that stayed anchored in downside protection. “Let’s deep dive into options market behavior during last week’s move to 97.6K, and how options metrics help gauge conviction behind the move,” Glassnode wrote. The core takeaway: upside flow showed up, but it didn’t meaningfully change how the market priced risk further out the curve. What Bitcoin Traders Can Learn From Last Week’s Rally Glassnode first focused on near-term skew. Around mid-January, BTC rose roughly 8% over a few days, and the 1-week 25-delta skew moved sharply toward neutral from “deep put territory.” That kind of front-end shift can look like a market flipping bullish—until you check whether the same repricing is happening in longer expiries. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Selling Off On Quantum Fears? A Reality Check “Careful though,” Glassnode warned. “Near-dated call demand is often misread as directional conviction.” The thread paired that point with flow data: the options volume put/call ratio dropped from 1 to 0.4, signaling a surge in call activity. But, as Glassnode framed it, the question is not whether calls were bought, but how short-dated that demand actually was. The longer-dated picture was notably less enthusiastic. Glassnode said the 1-month 25-delta skew “only moved from 7% to 4% at the low,” staying in put asymmetry even as the 1-week skew fell from 8% to 1%. On the 3-month 25-delta skew, the shift was even smaller (less than 1.5%) and it “stayed firmly in put territory,” continuing to price asymmetric downside. For Glassnode, that divergence matters because it separates “flow” from “risk pricing.” Upside participation can be real, but if the market does not reprice skew across maturities, it suggests traders are not extending that optimism into a higher-conviction, longer-horizon view. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Power Shift: New Whales Now Control The Market The volatility tape reinforced the same message. “Layering in ATM implied volatility, we see vol being sold as price moved higher,” Glassnode wrote. “Gamma sellers monetized the rally. This is not the volatility behavior typically associated with sustained breakouts.” That combination: front-end call demand alongside vol supply can align with tactical positioning rather than a regime change. It can also leave spot moves more vulnerable if follow-through buying does not materialize once short-dated structures roll off. Glassnode closed with a checklist for what a cleaner breakout would look like: “An ideal breakout setup combines spot pressing key levels, skew pointing higher with conviction across maturities, and volatility being bid. Last week’s move didn’t meet those conditions.” For traders watching whether BTC can revisit $97,600, the thread’s implication is straightforward: monitor whether longer-dated skew begins to lift out of put territory and whether implied volatility starts to get bid, not sold, as spot tests key levels again. At press time, BTC traded at $89,297. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

According to on-chain trackers, a big wave of old Bitcoin has started moving after long dormancy. Coins that sat untouched for more than two years have been transferred in numbers larger than what was seen during past peaks in 2017 and 2021. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Sharp Reversal Leaves Over $800 Million Liquidated In 1 Day CryptoQuant analyst Kripto Mevsimi said on-chain data shows that 2024 and 2025 marked the largest release of long-held Bitcoin supply ever recorded. He tracks “revived supply,” or coins that stayed dormant for more than two years before being moved. That kind of movement usually means deep-pocketed holders are changing their plans, not small traders chasing a quick gain. A Shift Without A Party Reports say this release of long-held supply arrived with little fanfare. There was no mass retail mania. Prices did not spike in a frenzy. Instead, the transfers came during a stretch when the market has been under steady pressure from broader financial stress. Some of those older coins were likely sold for profit. Some may have been moved for other reasons — custody upgrades, private trades, or to back financial products. On-chain signals show the coins moved, but they do not write the reasons on the blockchain. Long-Term Holders Change Course Based on reports from analysts tracking these flows, the pattern suggests a changing of the guard. Early adopters who held through multiple cycles and pointed to scarcity and self-control have been trimming positions. New buyers are appearing who watch price swings and macro headlines. Institutions, fresh large accounts, and price-driven traders are now shaping much of the market’s short-term activity. Global Risk Pressures Risk Assets Reports have linked recent weakness in Bitcoin to rising global risk. Research ties part of the pullback to tariff moves by US President Donald Trump, which have pushed investors away from risky assets. Tariffs can dent corporate profits, stir up inflation uncertainty, and change how the market views future rates — all of which hits sentiment. When big markets wobble, crypto often follows. That pressure helps explain why long-held coins moved without the usual hype. New Buyers Step Forward According To on-chain and price data, institutions and new “whales” are stepping into the gaps left by sellers. Bitcoin has been trading near the high $80k range, with recent figures around $89,140 as markets test demand. The old holders may have taken gains, but the market did not collapse. That shows there is still appetite, even if it is different from the past. Related Reading: Bitcoin Influencers Get Spotlight In X’s New ‘Starterpacks’ This cycle feels different because selling came without euphoria, and buying looks more tactical. That does not mean the story is over. The market might be shifting toward price-sensitive participants and outside financial forces. Or the recent calm could be a pause before fresh buying. Either way, these on-chain moves matter. They change where the coins sit, and that changes how future price swings may play out. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

"Shark Tank" investor Kevin O'Leary is pivoting his crypto strategy from tokens to energy infrastructure, declaring that power generation is now the real prize.

Crypto researcher Axel has provided insights into why the Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana prices are still crashing. This comes as BTC continues to see a supply overhang, which threatens to put more downward pressure on crypto prices.  Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana Prices Are Still Crashing In a research report, Axel noted that anomalous exchange inflows accompanied the BTC breakdown below the $90,000 zone as sellers prepared in advance. The market is also still at risk of further selling pressure as the 1.0 level of the short-term holders’ SOPR is now acting as a resistance rather than support. As such, there is a possibility that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana prices will decline further.  Related Reading: Altcoin Season In Q1? Bitcoin, Ethereum Breakdown Maps Out Performance Further commenting on Bitcoin netflows into exchanges, Axel noted that between January 20 and 21, almost 17,000 BTC flowed into exchanges, coinciding with BTC dropping to as low as $87,000, while Ethereum and Solana prices also dropped. The crypto researcher explained that these anomalously high values followed a period of predominantly negative netflow in the first half of this month.  In the context of the falling Bitcoin price, Axel stated that such a spike is more likely to reflect supply preparation than neutral transfers. In other words, the breakdown below $90,000 appears to be structural rather than emotional. Meanwhile, Bitcoin netflow returned to neutral levels yesterday, but the accumulated inflow still creates a supply overhang, which could lead to further declines in the prices of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana.  Axel noted that a signal of improvement would be if netflow turns negative again amid rising prices, which could indicate that the overhang has cleared. However, with the short-term holders’ 7-day SMA SOPR below 0.996, the crypto researcher suggested that BTC faces increased selling pressure on every recovery as these holders look to sell at breakeven. He added that a reversal trigger could be confirmed if the SOPR breaks above 1.0 from below, with the 7-day SMA holding unity for three to five days to filter out false spikes after the selloff.  Why A Break Above $100,000 Looks Unlikely For Now In its latest research report, on-chain analytics platform Glassnode explained that a Bitcoin rally above $100,000 looks unlikely for now as the supply overhang persists. They noted how this overhang supply above $98,000 remains the dominant sell-side force capping short to mid-term rebounds.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Following The 2022 Fractal? Here Was The Previous Outcome Alluding to the Unspent Realized Price Distribution metric, Glassnode noted that the recent BTC rally has partially filled the prior air gap between $93,000 and $98,000, driven by redistribution from top buyers into newer market participants.  However, the unresolved supply overhang is expected to likely cap attempts above the $98,400 short-term holders’ cost basis and the $100,000 level. A meaningful and sustained acceleration in demand momentum is said to be required for a clean breakout above $100,000 to occur. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out in a new report how Bitcoin is facing supply overhang beyond the $98,000 region. Bitcoin Could Find Resistance Beyond $98,000 In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has discussed about how the recent Bitcoin rally stalled near the Realized Price of the short-term holders (STHs). The “Realized Price” is an on-chain metric that tracks the cost basis of the average investor or address on the BTC network. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Whiplash: Mood Sours From Greed To Extreme Fear In Days The STH Realized specifically measures the average acquisition level of traders who purchased within the past 155 days. As the below chart shows, this indicator is located at $98,400 right now. This level is around where the recent recovery run hit an obstacle, potentially due to selling from underwater recent buyers who used the rally to exit near their break-even mark. Glassnode explained: The recent rejection near the Short-Term Holder cost basis at ~$98.4k mirrors the market structure observed in Q1 2022, where repeated failures to reclaim recent buyers’ cost basis prolonged consolidation. The STH Realized Price provides a look at the average break-even level of a broad section of the market. For a more granular look, another indicator called the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) exists. From the chart of the Bitcoin URPD, it’s visible that a notable amount of the STH supply has a cost basis between the current level and $98,000 (colored in blue). This supply represents the tokens that were redistributed by top buyers into newer market participants during the price rally. Not all top buyers sold, however, as it’s apparent in the graph that at levels around and above $100,000, the long-term holder (LTH) supply is becoming a notable force (shaded in red). Coins count under the LTH cohort once they mature past the 155-day age bracket. The fact that LTH supply is building up at these levels suggests some bull market entrants are willing to hold. The analytics firm noted: This unresolved supply overhang remains a persistent source of sell pressure, likely to cap attempts above the $98.4k STH cost basis and the $100k level. A clean breakout would therefore require a meaningful and sustained acceleration in demand momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottoming Phase Was Driven By Large Entities, Glassnode Data Shows It now remains to be seen how Bitcoin’s upcoming price action would look, particularly in the context that major supply clusters are still sitting underwater. BTC Price Bitcoin has been following a downward trajectory since its rejection from the STH Realized Price as its value is now trading around $89,100. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is facing a critical test as volatility returns and price action remains unstable around the $90,000 level. Bulls are attempting to defend this psychological zone after recent turbulence, but confidence across the market is still fragile. With uncertainty dominating short-term sentiment, many traders are treating every bounce as a potential trap rather than the start of a confirmed recovery. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Power Shift: New Whales Now Control The Market According to top analyst Darkfost, the market is still missing a key ingredient for a sustainable bullish continuation: a broad base of investors sitting in profit. He argues that despite Bitcoin’s resilience, there are not yet enough participants in positive territory to build the kind of structural comfort that fuels long-lasting uptrends. This matters because latent profits are not inherently bearish. In healthy conditions, when most holders are in profit, the market tends to stabilize. Investors feel less pressure to sell, panic fades, and holding becomes easier. That environment often supports stronger trend development and reduces the risk of sharp downside reactions. Still, Darkfost warns that profit dynamics only help up to a point. When unrealized gains become extreme across the entire market, they can eventually turn into overhead supply, triggering corrective phases. Bitcoin’s Profit Structure Still Isn’t Bullish Enough Profit distribution across holders can become a double-edged sword for Bitcoin. When the supply in profit climbs above 95% and approaches 100%, unrealized gains stop being supportive and begin turning into overhead pressure. At those extremes, investors have little incentive to hold through volatility, and even small shocks can trigger profit-taking that fuels corrective phases. From a structural perspective, Darkfost argues the market needs to reclaim the 75% supply-in-profit threshold to rebuild a healthier foundation. Historically, Bitcoin has tended to sustain bullish conditions when this metric holds above that level, as most participants remain comfortable and less reactive to downside volatility. Right now, however, the market sits near 71%, after dropping as low as 64%. Darkfost notes that readings this low have often appeared near the early stages of bear markets, even when the headline drawdown looks relatively contained. In this case, the decline of roughly 31% was enough to push a large portion of recent buyers underwater, suggesting many entered late in the move. The recent rebound briefly lifted supply in profit back to 75%, but it failed to hold. That rejection likely reflects investors using the bounce to exit at breakeven or reduce losses. Going forward, reclaiming 75%–80% would signal stabilization, while further weakness could amplify panic-driven selling. Related Reading: Ethereum Supply Tightens On Binance As Reserves Hit Lowest Level Since 2016 Volatility Keeps Bulls on the Defensive Bitcoin is attempting to stabilize near the $90,000 mark after a volatile correction that reshaped the market structure over the past few months. The chart shows BTC printing a major peak around $125,000 before rolling over into a sharp selloff. Accelerating into November and eventually finding a local floor near the mid-$80,000s. That drop marked a decisive break in momentum and triggered a shift toward a lower range, where price has struggled to regain prior support levels. Since the rebound off the lows, Bitcoin has moved into a consolidation phase, repeatedly testing resistance around $92,000–$95,000 but failing to generate sustained continuation. Each recovery attempt has been met with selling pressure, suggesting that short-term supply is still active near former breakdown zones. The latest bounce back toward $90,000 signals buyers are defending the level. But the structure still looks fragile without a clean breakout. Related Reading: Binance Order Flow Suggests Ethereum Is In Correction Mode: Demand Still Missing Volume also reflects uncertainty, with higher activity during selloffs and more muted participation during rebounds. Bulls likely need to hold $88,000–$90,000 and reclaim the $92,000 region with conviction. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin price started a consolidation phase below $90,500. BTC is consolidating losses and might attempt a recovery wave if it clears $91,500. Bitcoin started a minor recovery wave from the $87,200 level. The price is trading below $90,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a short-term bearish trend line with resistance at $89,700 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might recover if it manages to settle above $90,500 and $91,500. Bitcoin Price Eyes Recovery Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $90,000 support and extended losses. BTC declined sharply below the $89,500 and $88,000 support levels. The bears even pushed the price below $87,500. A low was formed at $87,200, and the price is now attempting a recovery wave. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $95,475 swing high to the $87,200 low. Besides, there was a break above a short-term bearish trend line with resistance at $89,700 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. Bitcoin is now trading below $90,500 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $89,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $90,300 level. The first key resistance is near the $91,500 level since it is close to the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $95,475 swing high to the $87,200 low. A close above the $91,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $92,300 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $93,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $95,000 and $95,500. Another Drop In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $91,500 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $89,000 level. The first major support is near the $88,200 level. The next support is now near the $87,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $86,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $85,500, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $89,000, followed by $88,200. Major Resistance Levels – $90,300 and $91,500.

Technical analysis shared by crypto analyst CryptoBullet on X highlighted a familiar price action that suggests that Bitcoin’s current structure may be closely tracking a 2022 price fractal.  Bitcoin’s price action in recent days has changed into a more fragile posture, with the cryptocurrency falling back below the psychological $90,000 level after failing to sustain higher ground above $97,000 on January 14. How Bitcoin’s Current Structure Resembles The 2022 Fractal According to CryptoBullet, Bitcoin’s present price action is closely following an interesting structure that it previously played out in 2022. Technical analysis on the daily candlestick timeframe chart posted by the analyst shows the earlier 2022 move as a transparent projection layered behind current price action, with a striking similarity in both rhythm and volatility.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Will Still Rally Above $99,000 Despite Bearish Sentiment, Here’s Why As it stands, Bitcoin has experienced a significant 28.7% pullback from its October 2025 peak and is now trading in a choppy consolidation, a behavior that closely matches the early stages of the 2022 downturn. CryptoBullet noted, however, that there is an important distinction. During the 2022 decline, Bitcoin had already tested the 50-week moving average and the 200-day moving average at this stage of the cycle. In the current setup, Bitcoin’s price action is trading below those levels but has not yet made a direct test, and this means that the structure may still be incomplete. What The 2022 Outcome Predicts For Bitcoin’s Next Move The projection in the background of the chart shows Bitcoin making one more push higher over the coming month, briefly reclaiming levels above $100,000 before running into a strong resistance at the 50-week moving average. Related Reading: Party’s Over For Bitcoin Bulls: Analyst Reveals The Next Steps If this scenario plays out, the move would resemble the final relief rally seen in 2022, where the price rallied into long-term resistance before rolling over. CryptoBullet noted that timing also supports this idea, noting that considering the 2022 top is lined up with the October 2025 top, there appears to be roughly one month of price action left for a final leg up.  The projection is that Bitcoin pushes to at least $100,000 again sometime in February 2026. However, support must hold above $83,000 in order for this bullish portion of the setup to be valid. Although the short-term projection is bullish, the broader implication of the 2022 fractal is bearish for the mid-term. According to the chart’s projected path, Bitcoin is shown rejecting at the 50-week moving average after a brief rally, followed by a sustained decline that eventually drags its price action below $71,500.  This prediction is based on exactly what unfolded in 2022, when a final pump gave way to a deeper corrective phase. That said, fractals are guides, not guarantees, meaning price history may rhyme, but it does not always repeat itself exactly. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s April 2025 swing low around $73,000 has become the make-or-break line for 2026, according to veteran professional trader and commentator Nik Patel, who argues that a higher-timeframe break below that level would likely open the door to a prolonged grind in the mid-$50,000s. In Part Three of his “2026 Outlook” published Jan. 21, Patel laid out a high-conviction call that Bitcoin prints fresh all-time highs in the first half of 2026, framing it as further evidence the market has shifted away from the clean, narrative-driven four-year cycle. “Bitcoin trades new all-time highs in H1 — the 4-year cycle is dead,” he wrote, summarizing his regime view as “higher for longer,” potentially stretching into 2027. Why Bitcoin Must Hold $73,000 Or Risk A Slide Patel’s core technical claim is simple: as long as Bitcoin does not close key higher timeframes below the April 2025 low, the broader structure remains intact and the base case is continuation higher. He acknowledged that he expected a sharper reversal earlier: “Timing-wise, I was wrong on my expectations for a more immediate reversal,” but stressed that price has continued to hold above the April lows “despite having every reason to break and close below.” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Power Shift: New Whales Now Control The Market That resilience, in his view, matters more than moving averages or anchored references. “Since 2022, we have not made fresh lows on a weekly timeframe below the bottoms that preceded the next highs (or, more plainly, weekly structure in the most technical sense has remained bullish with higher-highs and higher-lows),” Patel wrote. “This has not changed and I place less weight on MAs, VWAPs etc. than I do on price itself, and whilst the $73k April lows that preceded the $126k all-time highs are protected, weekly structure is still bullish.” His forecast leans heavily on a macro and positioning backdrop he describes as inconsistent with a deep-cycle crypto bear market. Patel cited “Goldilocks into reflation,” rising inflation breakevens, falling real rates, midterm dynamics, and bearish sentiment and positioning as part of the setup that makes a 2018- or 2022-style unwind less likely in his framework. Patel’s downside map is unusually explicit for a discretionary macro-technical thesis. “If I’m wrong — and we close the higher timeframes below $73k — we likely trade mid-$50ks this year, consolidate there for many months and produce no new highs in 2026,” he wrote, outlining a scenario where a structural failure forces a wholesale reassessment. He reiterated that the trigger is not an intraday wick but timeframe closes. In his year-ahead playbook, he described being “invalidated on a weekly close below $73k but with a view to re-entering on an immediate reclaim,” while “fully” cutting exposure if Bitcoin prints a monthly close below $73,000, in which case he would “prepare for mid-$50ks.” Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Selling Off On Quantum Fears? A Reality Check Patel also pushed back on the idea that the drawdown from the highs represents a new, uniquely bearish regime. “Where many view the most recent move off the highs into $80k as a ‘structural shift unlike prior corrections’, I disagree and continue to view this as a ‘higher for longer’ regime within which we have these 30-40% corrections, range-bound price-action chewing through supply and subsequently continue higher,” he wrote. He added that the correction “felt different” in part because it coincided with what he called “the largest liquidation event in crypto history,” alongside forced selling dynamics and long-term holder supply, yet it has still only produced a drawdown modestly larger than prior pullbacks in the broader uptrend. Even so, Patel allowed for near-term turbulence. He said there is “a decent chance we sweep the November low in early Q1,” but maintained he “categorically” does not expect a higher-timeframe close below the April lows in the first half of the year. His base case remains new highs in H1 2026—“perhaps in late Q1 but likely in early Q2.” At press time, BTC traded at $90,060. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitwise’s take on the final months of 2025 reads like a careful, hopeful note rather than a loud market call. Momentum on the chains rose even as prices stalled, and that gap is exactly what has traders talking. Some think it marks a bottom. Others say it’s too soon to be sure. Related Reading: Trove’s New Token Craters 95%, Sparking Investor Revolt Crypto: On-Chain Activity Surges According to Bitwise, Ethereum activity and layer-two transactions climbed to new highs, and decentralized trading grew markedly. Stablecoin supplies also swelled, with the total market cap passing the $300 billion mark in Q4. Reports note that decentralized exchange volumes at times matched or exceeded those of major centralized venues. These are hard numbers. They are signs that real use and liquidity are expanding under the surface. The latest Bitwise Crypto Market Review just dropped—and it’s the most important one we’ve ever published. Why? Because it shows a tension in crypto markets that has historically signaled a bear-market bottom (see Q1 2023). Receipts: During Q4 2025… – ETH’s price fell 29% …… — Bitwise (@BitwiseInvest) January 21, 2026 Why Prices Have Lagged Bitwise’s chief investment officer, Matt Hougan, compared this setup to early 2023 when prices trailed rising fundamentals before a significant rebound took hold over the following two years. The comparison makes sense on paper. Price can be stubborn. Market psychology often lags behind on-chain realities, and traders sometimes wait for a clearer macro story before committing capital. Fundstrat’s Tom Lee offers a counterpoint, saying the year could be bumpy until late, with tariffs and political tensions weighing on risk appetite. That view keeps many investors cautious. Crypto, Stablecoins And DeFi At The Center According to market data, flows into stablecoins accelerated, and fund inflows to crypto firms outpaced several other sectors in the stock market. DeFi use was no longer a niche metric; it was central to the Q4 narrative. “That’s the type of divergence you get at the bottom of bear markets, when sentiment is down but fundamentals are up,” Hougan said. Some infrastructure firms reported rising revenues. At the same time, trading volumes remained muted compared with the peaks seen earlier, which helps explain the mismatch between on-chain strength and sideways price action. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Sharp Reversal Leaves Over $800 Million Liquidated In 1 Day Why This Might Matter For 2026 Bitwise highlighted 10 broad indicators it sees as health signs for the market, ranging from transaction counts to custody and fee trends. Progress on regulatory clarity was also flagged. Reports say the Clarity Act could change how stablecoins are treated in the US, and a new US Federal Reserve chair could shift policy in ways that matter for risk assets. Bitwise sees Q4 as a quiet period where things were improving behind the scenes, even if prices didn’t show it. The firm says this kind of gap between price and activity has happened before big rebounds. It doesn’t mean a rally will happen right away, but the market could be setting itself up for a stronger year ahead. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s role in the global financial system remains widely misunderstood, even at the highest levels of policy and finance. That disconnect surfaced during a major international forum, prompting a pointed clarification from a Coinbase executive. The moment centered on a fundamental question with growing relevance: what truly separates Bitcoin from central banks? Bitcoin’s Structural Design Sets It Apart – Coinbase Executive During the World Economic Forum in Davos, where global policymakers and financial leaders were debating the future of money and tokenization, Brian Armstrong, CEO of Coinbase, responded to remarks made by François Villeroy de Galhau, Governor of the Banque de France, who argued that central banks deserve greater trust than Bitcoin because they operate under democratic mandates and institutional oversight. Related Reading: Pundit Clarifies XRP Roadmap To $10: How Price Will Play Out In 2026 Armstrong’s response focused on how Bitcoin is designed. Bitcoin operates as a decentralized protocol with no issuing authority, no governing committee, and no single entity capable of altering its monetary rules. Its supply is fixed, its issuance is algorithmic, and its operation depends on a distributed network of participants rather than institutional oversight. This design makes Bitcoin structurally independent in a way no central bank can replicate. By contrast, central banks sit at the top of national monetary systems. They control currency issuance, influence interest rates, and adjust monetary policy in response to political and economic pressures. Even when described as “independent,” they remain tightly connected to governments and fiscal policy. Armstrong highlighted that this link introduces discretion, policy shifts, and long-term currency debasement through money creation—a vulnerability Bitcoin was explicitly built to avoid. This distinction becomes especially relevant during periods of aggressive deficit spending. Because Bitcoin’s supply cannot be expanded, it functions as a constraint rather than a tool. In Armstrong’s view, this makes Bitcoin a direct counterweight to systems where new money can be introduced at will, gradually reducing purchasing power over time. That structural constraint is the foundation of Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge during periods of uncertainty. Trust, Accountability, And Individual Choice The exchange also exposed a deeper disagreement about how trust is formed. Villeroy de Galhau emphasized trust in central banks as institutions backed by legal authority and democratic systems. Armstrong countered by reframing trust as something derived from transparency and verifiability rather than institutional reputation.  Related Reading: Is Dogecoin About To Repeat NVIDIA’s Run? Here’s What The Chart Says Armstrong further positioned Bitcoin as an accountability mechanism. Because its supply cannot be adjusted to accommodate government spending, it imposes discipline by design. In this sense, Bitcoin functions less as a policy tool and more as a constraint—similar to how gold historically limited monetary excess. This characteristic has driven its growing perception as a store of value during times of economic uncertainty. Importantly, Armstrong did not frame the relationship between Bitcoin and fiat currencies as a zero-sum battle. Instead, he described it as a healthy competition that leaves the ultimate decision with individuals. Users can choose between systems: one based on institutional control and policy flexibility, and another based on fixed rules and decentralization. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

As the market erases its 2026 gains, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to its lowest level in weeks and is attempting to reclaim a crucial level. Some market observers have warned that a retest of the November lows is likely if volatility continues. Related Reading: BitMine’s Ethereum Holdings Near 3.5% Supply Milestone As ETH Falls Below $3,000 Bitcoin Breaks Down From Key Support On Wednesday, Bitcoin continued to pullback and hit a three-week low of $87,263. The cryptocurrency had been trading between the $90,000-$96,000 range since its start-of-the-year breakout, reaching a two-month high of $97,924 a week ago. However, the crypto market has experienced significant volatility over the past few days, fueled by renewed geopolitical tensions. As a result, BTC has retraced 10% in the past week, falling to the mid-zone of its $84,000-$94,000 range. Amid this performance, trader Wealthmanager noted that the flagship crypto had retraced all its 2026 gains, briefly falling below its yearly opening and POC. He added that this is a critical level to hold in the coming days, as losing this area could send the price back to the $80,000 mark. Analyst Crypto Jelle highlighted a two-month bear flag structure on BTC’s daily chart, suggesting a high chance of a breakdown. “Lose the current lows again, and bears will be fully back in the driver’s seat,” he asserted. Similarly, Market observer Lyvo Crypto pointed out the same formation, detailing that Bitcoin broke down from the pattern’s ascending support after the recent price action and lost its two-month uptrend. To the trader, this signals that “momentum is fully in the bears’ control” and “if it [bearish momentum] sustains, we could see a free fall” that could likely result in a retest of the $78,000 area. In the case of a breakdown to the November lows, he advised that “from there, we’ll wait for confirmation of a double bottom and look for a relief rally.” BTC To Repeat Its 2020 Price Action? Crypto Bullet drew a parallel between BTC’s current price action and its performance in early 2022. The analyst affirmed that the current price action closely mirrors its 2022 fractal, which could signal that a major correction is ahead. At the time, Bitcoin retraced over 40% from its late 2021 cycle top, followed by a “dead cat bounce” at the start of 2022 and a second major correction toward new lows. Now, the flagship crypto displays a similar performance as it has retraced 30% from the October highs and is currently attempting to reclaim the lost ground. However, Crypto Bullet noted that there are two significant differences from its 2022 correction. Related Reading: Solana At Risk Of Breakdown After Key Rejection – Is $100 Next? First, Bitcoin has yet to retest the 50-week and 200-week Moving Averages (MAs). Second, the timing hints that the final breakdown is not due until later in Q1. “If we match the 2022 fractal’s top and the October 2025 top, we’ll see there’s still about 1 month of PA to make that final leg up and test the 50-Week MA or the 200-Day MA,” he explained. He concluded that one more pump above the $100,000 is likely, but advised caution as the key supports are being tested. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $89,890, a 1.2% increase in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Data shows the Bitcoin market sentiment has seen a sharp turnaround recently as the Fear & Greed Index has swung to extreme fear. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Back In Extreme Fear Zone The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tells us about the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bottoming Phase Was Driven By Large Entities, Glassnode Data Shows The index uses the data of the following five factors to determine the investor mentality: market cap dominance, trading volume, volatility, Google Trends, and social media sentiment. To represent the sentiment, it uses a numerical scale running from zero to hundred. When the value of the Fear & Greed Index is greater than 53, it means a sentiment of greed is shared by the majority of traders. On the other hand, the indicator being below 47 implies the dominance of fear. All values lying between these two cutoffs correspond to a net neutral mentality. Besides these three core regions, there are also two ‘extreme’ zones, known as the extreme fear (occurring at 25 and under) and extreme greed (above 75). At present, the market sentiment is in one of these zones, as the Fear & Greed Index’s latest value suggests. As displayed above, the Bitcoin market sentiment is just inside the extreme fear territory right now, with the Fear & Greed Index sitting at 24. This level of despair among traders is a new development, as just earlier mood was much better. On January 15th, the index had a value of 61, putting the sentiment of the average investor firmly inside the greed territory. Only six days later, the situation has completely flipped. The reason behind this shift lies in the bearish price action that the cryptocurrency has faced since US President Donald Trump announced tariffs on several European countries over Greenland. The earlier greed sentiment also came after trader mentality saw a sharp swing. In fact, the shift was even faster back then, as the Fear & Greed Index went from a near-extreme fear level of 26 to the greedy value of 61 over just two days as Bitcoin witnessed a price surge beyond $97,000. Related Reading: Chainlink Drops To $12.50, But Largest Whales Are Accumulating The latest drop back into the extreme zone may not entirely be a negative development for the cryptocurrency, though, if history is anything to refer to. Often, digital asset markets have tended to move in the direction that goes contrary to the expectations of the majority. Since extreme fear is where a bearish mentality is the strongest, bottoms can be likely to occur in the zone. Similarly, extreme greed can lead to tops instead. With the sentiment currently in the former zone, it now remains to be seen how long it will take for Bitcoin to find back its footing. BTC Price Bitcoin dropped under $88,000 earlier in the day, but the coin has since bounced back to $90,200. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has slipped below the $90,000 level as markets react to rising macroeconomic tension between the United States and the European Union, with fresh concerns tied to geopolitical friction around Greenland. The renewed risk-off tone pressured equities and crypto alike, reinforcing Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global headlines when uncertainty spikes and investors reduce exposure across high-beta assets. Related Reading: Binance Order Flow Suggests Ethereum Is In Correction Mode: Demand Still Missing Beyond price action, on-chain data suggests a deeper shift is taking place inside the Bitcoin market. A report by analyst MorenoDV highlights that, for the first time in history, “new whales” now account for a larger share of Bitcoin’s Realized Cap than long-term “OG” whales. Realized Cap tracks the aggregate cost basis of coins based on their last on-chain movement, meaning this change signals that a substantial portion of BTC supply has recently changed hands at higher prices. This transfer of influence matters because it reshapes short-term supply dynamics. When newer large holders dominate realized capital, market behavior can become more reactive, with marginal supply increasingly controlled by investors who entered later in the cycle and may be more sensitive to volatility. As Bitcoin battles to reclaim $90,000, this evolving whale structure may help explain why rebounds feel less stable and why selling pressure can reappear quickly during macro-driven pullbacks. New Whales Now Dictate Bitcoin’s Short-Term Direction Realized Cap measures Bitcoin’s aggregate cost basis by valuing coins at the price of their last on-chain movement. When this metric shifts toward new whales—short-term holder whales holding more than 1,000 BTC with UTXO age below 155 days—it signals that a meaningful share of supply has recently changed hands at elevated prices. In other words, market control is moving away from experienced, cycle-tested holders and toward capital that arrived late in the trend. This transition helps explain Bitcoin’s current behavior. The realized price of new whales sits near $98,000, while spot price continues trading below that level. As a result, this cohort is estimated to be carrying roughly $6 billion in unrealized losses. These losses are not just paper drawdowns—they shape decision-making and increase sensitivity to volatility, especially during sharp corrections. On-chain realized PnL data suggests that since the market peak, new whales have driven the bulk of realized losses. During the recent drawdown, they repeatedly sold into weakness and used brief rebounds to exit positions. Reflecting risk management rather than conviction. Old whales tell the opposite story. With a realized price around $40,000, long-term whales remain deeply profitable. Their activity has been limited relative to the flows coming from new whales. For now, Bitcoin’s direction is being dictated by this newer, more fragile whale cohort. Related Reading: XRP Leverage Builds Without Overheating: Open Interest Climbs And Volatility Spikes Bitcoin Breaks Below Key Support Bitcoin is showing renewed weakness after losing the $90,000 psychological level, with price now trading near $88,300 on the daily chart. The structure reflects a clear downtrend from the late-2025 highs, followed by a failed attempt to recover. After a sharp drop in November, BTC stabilized and built a short consolidation base, but the rebound into early January lacked follow-through and quickly turned into another rejection. From a technical perspective, BTC remains trapped below its major moving averages, which are now acting as dynamic resistance. The shorter-term average has rolled over sharply, while the broader trend line above continues to slope downward. Signaling that momentum remains capped, and sellers are still in control on rallies. The recent bounce toward the mid-$90K region was rejected aggressively, confirming that overhead supply remains heavy and buyers are not yet strong enough to flip the trend. Related Reading: Trade War Headlines Trigger $800M In Liquidations Overnight: Longs Get Wiped Out Across Crypto Markets Volume patterns support this narrative. The biggest spikes occurred during the selloff leg, showing forced activity and distribution. While the most recent recovery attempts have been met with weaker participation. As long as Bitcoin stays below the $90K–$92K zone, price action suggests the market is still searching for a stable bottom. The downside risk remains elevated if fear accelerates across the broader crypto market. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com