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Bitcoin (BTC) has opened 2026 with renewed momentum, extending a recovery that began in the final days of December and pushing prices back above key psychological levels. Related Reading: XRP Is Setting Up For Its ‘Next Explosive Move,’ Analysts Say: Here’s The Target After ending 2025 with a modest decline that challenged expectations around the traditional four-year cycle, the largest asset has reclaimed the $90,000 zone and is trading above $92,000. The move reflects a mix of technical breakouts, steady institutional inflows, and easing selling pressure, even with long-term skepticisms. BTC's price records moderate gains on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Technical Structure Points to Higher Levels On the daily chart, Bitcoin (BTC) has been forming a rounded base that resembles the early stages of a cup-and-handle pattern, a structure often associated with trend continuation. Recent candles have closed higher, though long upper wicks suggest some resistance near current levels. Analysts note that maintaining a sustained hold above the $89,500–$90,000 range is crucial to sustaining the bullish setup. A confirmed break above the $94,700 area could validate the pattern and open the door to a measured move toward the $100,000–$104,000 zone, implying roughly 10–12% upside from recent prices. Shorter-term indicators also show improving momentum, with higher lows forming on lower time frames and moving averages beginning to turn upward. However, elevated leverage on derivatives platforms means that pullbacks could still trigger sharp liquidations if support levels are breached. Bitcoin ETF Inflows and On-Chain Data Support the Move Beyond charts, underlying market data points to reduced distribution. Exchange inflows have dropped sharply since the end of December, signaling lower immediate selling pressure. On-chain metrics show both short-term and long-term holders moving fewer coins, suggesting a preference to hold rather than sell into strength. Institutional demand has also re-emerged through spot Bitcoin ETFs. Early January saw more than $600 million in net inflows in a single session, reinforcing the view that larger investors continue to treat Bitcoin as a portfolio allocation rather than a short-term trade. This steady accumulation has helped Bitcoin absorb macro-driven volatility, including recent geopolitical headlines that briefly lifted broader risk assets. Skepticism Remains as Market Eyes 2026 Outlook Not everyone is convinced the recovery will last. Economist Peter Schiff has reiterated his long-standing view that Bitcoin’s rally is unsustainable, arguing that recent gains in precious metals offer a stronger long-term case. Related Reading: Memecoin Strength Returns After Historic Market Decline: A Setup For A Comeback? Still, Bitcoin remains roughly 26% below its all-time high, leaving room for further debate over valuation and direction. Consequently, the market appears to be focused on whether Bitcoin can build on its early 2026 recovery. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

Consumer use of crypto-linked payment cards continued to gain traction heading into 2026, following a sharp rise in spending volumes reported by Visa for 2025. Data from Dune Analytics shows that spending across Visa-backed crypto cards increased steadily throughout last year, a significant growth. Related Reading: XRP Is Setting Up For Its ‘Next Explosive Move,’ Analysts Say: Here’s The Target Across six Visa-partnered crypto card programs, total net spending rose from $14.6 million in January 2025 to $91.3 million by December. The increase represents a 525% jump over the year and reflects growing consumer comfort with paying directly from crypto wallets at traditional points of sale. The cards are issued by a mix of crypto payment platforms and decentralized finance projects, including EtherFi, Cypher, GnosisPay, Avici Money, Exa App, and Moonwell. ETH's price trends slightly to the upside on the daily chart. Source: ETHUSD on Tradingview EtherFi and Cypher Lead Visa Crypto Card Spending Among the tracked programs, EtherFi recorded the highest spending volume, accounting for $55.4 million in transactions during 2025. That figure placed it well ahead of Cypher, which ranked second with $20.5 million in total spend. The remaining card issuers posted smaller but consistent increases, suggesting broader participation across the ecosystem rather than growth driven by a single outlier. Monthly spending data shows a gradual rise throughout the year, with no major spikes or sharp reversals. Analysts say this pattern points to routine usage rather than one-off events. Commenting on the data, Polygon researcher Alex Obchakevich noted that crypto card spending increasingly reflects regular financial behavior, indicating that crypto-linked cards are moving beyond experimental use cases. Visa Expands Stablecoin Infrastructure Visa’s growing role in crypto payments has been supported by its expanding stablecoin infrastructure. The payments firm now enables stablecoin settlement across multiple blockchains, including Ethereum, Solana, Avalanche, and Stellar. This setup allows card issuers to convert crypto balances to fiat in real time during transactions, while still relying on Visa’s global merchant network. In December 2025, Visa also launched a stablecoin advisory team focused on helping banks, merchants, and fintech companies design and manage stablecoin-based products. The initiative highlights Visa’s view that blockchain-based settlement and programmable money are becoming more relevant to mainstream payments. Outlook for Crypto Card Usage in 2026 With spending volumes rising and infrastructure continuing to expand, crypto card usage is expected to grow further in 2026. While volumes remain concentrated in the U.S., Europe, and parts of the Asia-Pacific region, the steady increase suggests consumer crypto spending is becoming more normalized. Related Reading: Memecoin Strength Returns After Historic Market Decline: A Setup For A Comeback? How sustained this trend will be may depend on broader market conditions and continued integration between crypto platforms and established payment networks. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

On Monday, Bitcoin successfully reclaimed the $93,000 mark, spurred by a wave of renewed optimism that has also revitalized altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH), XRP, and Solana (SOL), all of which are experiencing recoveries not seen in nearly a month.  According to data from CoinGecko, Bitcoin has recorded a weekly surge of 7%, while Ethereum and Solana have outperformed the leading cryptocurrency with increases of nearly 9% during the same period. Notably, XRP has taken the lead, boasting a significant 15% uptrend. Large Holders Drive Bitcoin Surge A key driver behind this recent surge, especially for Bitcoin, can be attributed to large holders, or “whales,” who have acquired approximately 270,000 BTC in the last 30 days, amounting to roughly $23 billion.  Related Reading: Dogecoin Price On The Brink Of A 9,000% Rally To $10? What Historical Performance Shows Market analyst NoLimit highlighted this crucial development in a recent social media post, noting its significance: this accumulation represents 1.3% of Bitcoin’s total supply and marks the largest net buy from this group in 13 years. However, NoLimit asserts that this doesn’t imply that Bitcoin will see an immediate surge in its value. It indicates that long-term investors are aggressively positioning themselves even while the broader market sentiment remains mixed. Will BTC Establish A Macro Lower High? In the short term, though, market analyst Rekt Capital warns that despite Bitcoin hovering just above $93,400, it has closed its 12-month candle below the $93,500 mark. This suggests that the $93,500 level is likely to act as resistance moving forward.  Historical patterns across four-year cycles indicate that such resistances can hinder price movement for an extended period, often resisting for up to three years before being breached in the next Halving year. Related Reading: Venezuela, Geopolitical Risk, And Bitcoin: What On-Chain Data Really Shows Should Bitcoin indeed be in the early stages of a bear market, this could imply that prices might surpass the $93,500 resistance in the coming months only to establish a macro lower high before continuing their downward trajectory.  According to Rekt Capital, the sustainable breakout above this resistance is more likely to occur in the next halving year in 2028. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin was designed as a decentralized monetary network with no single point of control, but the structure of its ownership is quietly evolving. As issuance declines and liquidity thins, a growing share of the BTC circulating supply has been moving into the hands of powerful financial institutions, resulting in a steady accumulation that reshapes the dynamics of the BTC market, liquidity, and long-term distribution. Does Institutional Adoption Change Bitcoin’s Purpose? The financial-industrial complex is in the process of centralizing as much Bitcoin as possible. Crypto investor Simon Dixon has revealed on X that institutions want to accumulate BTC as a useful tool for managing the final capital outflow squeeze once it is ready, following its Western asset-stripping operations.  Related Reading: Why The 2025 Close Below $100,000 Is Terrible For The Bitcoin Price As BTC is a proof-of-work, accumulating it does not grant governance control or long-term price discovery. However, the accumulation does provide the tools needed to manage short-term price action. Institutions are in the accumulation phase, and they want self-custody for themselves and institutional custody for everybody else. Therefore, they can channel large capital flows into BTC while preserving an exit tool for sovereign wealth.  This is similar to how the British Empire utilized tax haven islands as escape valves. According to Simon, BTC is one of their exit strategies for managing sovereign wealth in a world where custody of vast gold reserves requires trusted custodians. Nothing has changed in terms of how to prepare, and the strategy remains to own more BTC in self-custody this month than the previous month. Any price suppression now is an opportunity; it won’t last. Furthermore, the financial-industrial complex will engineer volatility through instruments like MicroStrategy and its derivatives ecosystem to margin-call as much BTC as possible while building more leverage tools. This isn’t about crypto, but a Silicon Valley liquidity grift, which is a way to supplement VC returns with added liquidity layered on top of private equity. Crypto is a technical industrial complex operation to build out the digital control grid. Why Bitcoin As A Financial Lifeboat The lesson of Venezuela is the best advertisement for Bitcoin ever created. Investor Fred Krueger noted that those who still had Bolivars in 2016 when hyperinflation began had a clear chance to accumulate BTC when it was trading below $1,000. Instead, they lost absolutely everything. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Dump Is Over: On-Chain Data Just Flipped In 2018, when the regime rolled out the Petro, buying BTC instead would have delivered over 30% in returns. That altcoin that represented oil was limited and was shelved in 2024. This is the lesson for the BRICS. “Maduro and his inner circle probably owned very little BTC, believing they would remain in power forever, but a lot of them are regretting that today,” Fred noted. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has pushed back above the $92,000 level after spending several days trapped below $90,000, offering a brief sense of relief to a market that has remained under pressure since late 2025. The rebound has helped stabilize short-term sentiment, but confidence remains fragile. Many analysts continue to warn that 2026 could evolve into a broader bear market, citing weak spot demand, fading momentum, and persistent sell-side activity from larger participants. Related Reading: Altcoin Season Setup Advances: CEX Volume Hits Cycle Highs Despite Price Weakness Against this backdrop, macro headlines have re-entered the conversation. An analysis from XWIN Research Japan points to reports of a potential US military intervention in Venezuela, which have revived geopolitical risk concerns across global markets. Historically, such developments tend to increase volatility and push investors toward defensive positioning. However, Bitcoin’s reaction cannot be judged by price alone, particularly in an environment dominated by derivatives and algorithmic flows. On-chain behavior offers a more precise lens. Exchange Netflow data is especially relevant during periods of geopolitical stress, as it reflects whether holders are preparing to sell or choosing to stay sidelined. When fear dominates, exchange inflows typically surge as participants move coins onto platforms. Conversely, muted inflows or continued outflows suggest that investors are not rushing to reduce exposure, even amid unsettling headlines. Exchange Netflows Suggest Caution, Not Panic The analysis places the current geopolitical headlines into a broader historical context. During past military conflicts—most notably Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and more recent flare-ups in the Middle East—Bitcoin often experienced sharp but short-lived price volatility. However, on-chain data told a calmer story. Exchange Netflow, which captures whether coins are being moved onto exchanges to sell or withdrawn for holding, rarely deteriorated in a sustained way during those events. Since 2023, the market has shown a growing ability to absorb localized geopolitical shocks without triggering widespread liquidation behavior. The situation surrounding Venezuela appears consistent with that pattern. While headlines have introduced uncertainty and contributed to short-term price sensitivity, there is no meaningful surge of Bitcoin moving onto exchanges. The absence of elevated inflows suggests that investors are not reacting with panic. Instead, the market seems to be monitoring developments while maintaining existing exposure. Historically, Bitcoin’s more pronounced on-chain reactions have been tied to structural economic threats rather than isolated military actions. Events such as US–China trade tensions, aggressive regulatory shifts, or capital control measures tend to impact global liquidity and investor freedom more directly, leaving clearer footprints in exchange flows. At this stage, the Venezuela narrative has not crossed into that category. Exchange Netflow behavior indicates a market on alert, but not in retreat. Related Reading: Bitcoin Data Shows Aggressive Sellers In Control As BTC Consolidates Below $90K Bitcoin Tests Key Resistance After Relief Rally Bitcoin has staged a notable rebound, reclaiming the $92,000 level after spending several days struggling below $90,000. On the chart, this move stands out as a relief rally following a sharp breakdown from the $105,000–$110,000 region earlier in Q4. However, the broader structure still reflects a market in consolidation rather than a confirmed trend reversal. Price is currently trading below the declining short-term moving average (blue), which has acted as dynamic resistance since the November sell-off. While BTC has managed to reclaim ground above the 200-day moving average (red), this level is still relatively flat, signaling stabilization rather than renewed bullish momentum. The medium-term moving average (green) around the $100,000 area remains a critical barrier that bulls have not yet challenged meaningfully. Related Reading: Ethereum Liquidity Rebuilds On Binance: December Inflows Signal Strategic Repositioning The recent bounce occurred with moderate participation, lacking the expansion typically associated with strong trend continuation. This suggests short covering and tactical buying rather than broad-based demand returning to the market. Structurally, Bitcoin appears to be forming a range between roughly $88,000 and $96,000. Holding above the lower bound would keep the consolidation intact, while a failure back below $88,000 would reopen downside risk toward the mid-$80,000s. For now, the price action reflects relief and stabilization, but confirmation of a sustainable uptrend still requires a decisive reclaim of higher resistance levels. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin rose over 1% during Monday's Asian trading session, marking a potential five-day winning streak.

Bitcoin price started a major increase above $91,200. BTC is now showing bullish signs and might extend gains above $93,000. Bitcoin started a fresh increase above the $91,200 zone. The price is trading above $92,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $91,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move up if it stays above the $91,200 zone. Bitcoin Price Eyes More Upsides Bitcoin price remained supported above the $90,000 zone and started a fresh increase. BTC gained pace for a move above the $90,500 and $91,200 resistance levels. It even surpassed $92,000. A new multi-week high was formed at $93,333 and the price is now consolidating gains. It is stable above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent upward move from the $90,804 swing low to the $93,333 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $92,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. Besides, there is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $91,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $91,500, it could attempt a fresh recovery wave. Immediate resistance is near the $93,200 level. The first key resistance is near the $93,500 level. The next resistance could be $94,000. A close above the $94,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $94,650 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $95,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $95,500 and $95,800. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $93,200 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $92,200 level. The first major support is near the $92,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the recent upward move from the $90,804 swing low to the $93,333 high. The next support is now near the $91,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $90,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $90,000, below which BTC might accelerate lower in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $92,000, followed by $91,500. Major Resistance Levels – $93,200 and $94,000.

Media attention shifted from bitcoin’s environmental footprint to crime and kidnapping in 2025, while overall sentiment remained broadly neutral, according to crypto intelligence platform Perception.

According to market observers, the US strikes on Venezuela early Saturday are not expected to push Bitcoin into a large sell-off. The strikes took place at around 6 a.m. UTC and lasted for about 30 minutes, reports show. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Whale Comeback Story May Be Overblown, Onchain Data Shows Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, wrote on X that he does not expect “a widespread correction” tied to the attack, arguing the event was planned and has already passed market participants. Other analysts shared a similar view, saying dramatic moves usually come when traders expect worse things ahead. Bitcoin: Market Moves And Liquidations Based on reports, Bitcoin held firm above the $90,000 mark. CoinGecko data showed a rise of 1.50%, putting the token at $91,320 at the time of publication. I don’t think we’ll see a widespread correction based on the attack in Venezuela on #Bitcoin. It’s a planned and coordinated attack on Maduro, and is already past us. The likelihood of more negativity on the markets from that single event are relatively slim. I would assume… — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) January 3, 2026 CoinGlass figures indicate about $60 million in Bitcoin positions were liquidated over the prior 24 hours, with roughly $55 million of that coming from short bets. That kind of forced selling can amp up volatility for a short period. Still, the broader pattern this time looked muted. Historical Drops Have Happened Fast There have been episodes when conflict pushed prices down quickly. In June 2025, for example, Bitcoin fell nearly 3%, sliding from $106,000 to $103,000 inside roughly 90 minutes after explosions in Tehran. Traders point out that sudden moves often follow when markets fear ongoing escalation. Here, many market watchers see less chance of follow-up actions that would deepen panic. Federal Debt And Genesis Day In The Middle Of Market Noise Based on reports, the US national debt passed $38 trillion on Saturday, with the US National Debt Clock placing it near $38.5 at the time. That milestone came as Bitcoin fans marked “Genesis Day,” the anniversary of the first block mined by Satoshi Nakamoto. Happy Bitcoin Genesis Block day — Paolo Ardoino ???? (@paoloardoino) January 3, 2026 Paolo Ardoino, CEO of stablecoin issuer Tether, posted a celebratory message, while Sam Callahan, director of strategy and research at BTC treasury firm OranjeBTC, echoed the sentiment. For many in the community, the headline embedded in the Genesis Block remains a symbol of a monetary system capped in supply and not subject to the same printing pressures as fiat. Yeah generally the market really nukes when we expect things to get worse afterwards which doesn’t seem to be the case. Could see this actually bring some green to the market as people take this as a sign of strength tho — Tyler Hill (@Tylerhill) January 3, 2026 Community Reaction And Context Reports have shown some in the crypto space treated events like the strike and the rising US debt as separate but related stories. A few traders said the strike could bring “green” to markets as investors interpret decisive action as a sign of control, an outlook voiced by analyst Tyler Hill. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance Grows As Altcoins Post Another Losing Year: Analyst Meanwhile, others emphasized that the immediate market response has been calm rather than panicked. Social posts and onchain flows were watched closely by hedge funds and retail traders alike. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The Bitcoin price had more of a mixed performance than an outright negative showing in 2025. The market leader made a play for a new all-time high above $100,000 as early as January, but struggled to keep its six-figure valuation as the year wound down. The Bitcoin price has started the new year in a similar fashion to 2025, making its way above the $90,000 mark. However, the market uncertainty is at a record high, with no one knowing what to expect from the digital asset market in 2026. BTC Price Consolidating In Symmetrical Triangle — What Next? In a January 3 post on the social media platform X, market analyst Ali Martinez painted a bullish picture for the Bitcoin price. The crypto pundit postulated that the world’s largest cryptocurrency could be gearing up for an upward 15% price move in the coming weeks. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Could Rally To All-Time Highs If It Breaks This Resistance Level The rationale behind this optimistic prediction is the appearance of a symmetrical triangle pattern on the 4-hour timeframe of the Bitcoin price chart. The symmetrical triangle is a technical analysis pattern characterized by a diagonal falling upper trendline (connecting the swing highs) and a diagonally rising lower trendline (along the swing lows). In this symmetrical triangle chart formation, the asset price (BTC, in this case) typically contracts and moves toward the apex. The Bitcoin price eventually breaches either the upper trendline for a breakout or crosses the lower boundary, forming a breakdown. Hence, the symmetrical triangle pattern could provide a continuation or reversal signal depending on the direction of the break. It is worth mentioning that symmetrical triangles tend to be continuation break patterns, meaning the price tends to break in the initial trend direction before entering into the triangle pattern. If this theory holds in the current scenario, the Bitcoin price is likely to continue its upward movement after breaking the upper trendline here. The critical resistance in the upper trendline lies around the $91,000 region, and the flagship cryptocurrency needs a sustained close of at least two candlesticks above this level to confirm a bullish breakout. The price target is determined by adding the length of the widest point of the triangle (or base) to the breakout point. Based on this calculation, Martinez put forward a target above $102,000 for the Bitcoin price, representing a 15% surge from the current price point. Bitcoin Price At A Glance As of this writing, the price of BTC stands around $91,560, reflecting an over 1% increase in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Bitcoin Data Shows Aggressive Sellers In Control As BTC Consolidates Below $90K Featured image from DALL.E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has entered a choppy weekend range, testing traders’ patience as price action slows and volatility compresses. Despite the sideways movement, a critical trend line just below current levels remains intact, keeping the broader market outlook cautious but far from broken. Bitcoin Drifts Into A Typical Weekend Range According to a recent update by Lennaert Snyder, Bitcoin has entered a typical weekend range. Weekend trading is often characterized by low liquidity and choppy price action, which can make moves less predictable and more prone to false signals. Snyder is taking a cautious approach, waiting for a clear trigger at the boundaries of this range before committing to any trades.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Key Moving Averages Indicate An Imminent Drop To $38,000 Snyder notes that the $90,930 level could present a strong shorting opportunity if a liquidity sweep occurs and the price fails to hold. On the other hand, if Bitcoin demonstrates strength and manages to break above this threshold, it could signal bullish momentum, making long positions potentially attractive for traders looking to capitalize on a breakout. Similarly, the lower boundary near $88,430 is critical. A sweep below this level followed by a quick reversal could offer long positions. However, if the support fails and the market structure breaks, it would likely trigger continuation shorts. These levels act as key decision points where traders can gauge whether momentum favors buyers or sellers in the short term. Snyder emphasizes that these setups are primarily scalp trades, with lower risk exposure. The expert only executes trades when all confirmation signals align, ensuring that a clear technical rationale backs each position.  Looking ahead, external factors could add more volatility to Bitcoin’s price action. Geopolitical tensions and the return of major market participants next week are expected to increase trading volume and momentum, potentially turning these weekend range moves into larger trends.  BTC Holds Key Investor Tool Model Support Around $83,900 Crypto analyst Patel recently highlighted that Bitcoin is holding a key support level known as the Investor Tool Model Support, situated around $83,900, which also coincides with the 730-day moving average. This level has historically acted as a major pivot for Bitcoin, helping to gauge the broader market trend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees Unusual Short-Term Supply Spike, Raising Bearish Flags According to Patel, a decisive break below this support has historically signaled the start of a confirmed bear market, while holding above it typically points to a corrective phase rather than a long-term downtrend. In other words, this level serves as a critical dividing line between temporary pullbacks and structural weakness. Currently, the $83,900 zone is a key area to watch closely. Price action around this support could determine whether Bitcoin resumes its upward trajectory or risks entering a more extended bearish phase, making it a pivotal point for decision-making in the market. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

According to onchain data from CryptoQuant, claims that big holders are massively reaccumulating Bitcoin are exaggerated. The numbers that many share on social media can be distorted by exchange moves, not fresh buying. That distortion matters because large transfers tied to exchanges can look like one entity is piling in, when the action is often internal bookkeeping. Related Reading: Crypto Exchange Korbit Fined $1.90 Million By South Korean Regulators Whale Wallet Totals Can Be Misleading Exchange firms often merge funds from many small accounts into fewer large wallets for operational or compliance reasons. When that happens, onchain trackers may count those consolidated addresses as “whales,” inflating the apparent number of very large holders. According to Julio Moreno, head of research at CryptoQuant, once those exchange-related shifts are removed from the data, the balance held by true large holders is still falling. Balances in addresses holding between 100 to 1,000 BTC have dropped, a trend that lines up with outflows from spot ETFs. No, whales are not buying enormous amount of Bitcoin. Most Bitcoin whale data out there has been “affected” by exchanges consolidating a lot of their holdings into fewer addresses with larger balances, this is why whales seem to have accumulated a lot of coins recently. We… pic.twitter.com/dk9XqqckIX — Julio Moreno (@jjcmoreno) January 2, 2026 Long-Term Holders Turning Buyer Reports have disclosed that another group has shifted its behavior. Matthew Sigel, head of digital assets research at VanEck, says long-term holders have been net accumulators over the past 30 days after what was their biggest selling spree since 2019. That change could reduce one major source of selling pressure. It does not guarantee a rally, but it does mean at least one key cohort stopped adding to the sell side. Markets react to who is buying and who is selling, and this move by long-term holders softens the case that a single group is driving prices lower. Price Action Shows Mixed Signals Bitcoin has been hovering around the $90,000 area during thin holiday trading. At the time of reporting, the price was about $89,750 Saturday, with 24-hour volume near $52 billion. The token sits roughly 2.8% below a recent day high of $90,250 and carries a market capitalization of about $1.75 trillion based on a circulating supply close to 20 million BTC. Trading has seen sharp moves up and down, but volume has been weak, which means moves lack the support needed for a clear breakout or breakdown. Market Moves Hinge On ETF Flows Since US spot Bitcoin ETFs became active in early 2024, the ownership picture has changed. ETFs now hold a large share of on- and off-chain demand, which can shift where Bitcoin is stored and how flows appear on onchain charts. Reports suggest that ETF outflows have helped drive lower balances in the 100–1,000 BTC band, while at the same time some long-term holders are quietly buying. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance Grows As Altcoins Post Another Losing Year: Analyst What This Means For Investors Taken together, the evidence points to consolidation more than a new bull run or a major crash. Claims of a massive whale reaccumulation wave were overblown because they did not account for exchange consolidation. Yet the story is not one-sided. Long-term holders have shown buying interest, even as large non-exchange addresses continue to shed some holdings. Future price direction will likely depend on whether ETF flows return in size and whether trading volume picks up enough to confirm any move. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

With 2025 now closed, the crypto market is beginning 2026 with attempts to recover from one of its most challenging years. After a tumultuous period, total market capitalization has surged back above $3 trillion. However, many investors are left wondering what the new year has in store for digital assets. Institutions Forecast Bullish Crypto Prices For 2026 According to a recent report by analysts at Bull Theory, the past year proved to be robust for traditional markets, particularly for metals, while cryptocurrencies fell short of expectations. Silver surged by 160%, and gold followed suit with a 66% increase.  In contrast, Bitcoin (BTC) wrapped up 2025 down approximately 5%, despite several positive indicators, such as consistent purchasing by Strategy, strong inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and growing institutional interest.  Related Reading: Is The Dogecoin Bottom In? 3 Analysts Break Down the Charts Yet, when one asset class lags significantly while liquidity remains abundant, historical trends show that the gap typically narrows. In terms of specific projections, various major institutions and prominent investors have offered their forecasts for both Bitcoin and Ethereum (ETH).  Standard Chartered targets Bitcoin to reach $150,000 by the end of 2026, and JPMorgan projects a price of $170,000. Meanwhile, Citi’s base case stands around $143,000, with a more aggressive bull case suggesting a potential rise to $189,000.  Cathie Wood of ARK Invest envisions a long-term scenario where Bitcoin could hit $500,000, contingent on widespread institutional adoption. Tom Lee from Fundstrat anticipates Ethereum will trade between $7,000 and $9,000 by early 2026, fueled by the tokenization of real-world assets. New Regulations And Economic Optimism The analysts further highlighted that, unlike previous years, this cycle looks distinct in several key aspects. For one, crypto is no longer encumbered by operating within a legal gray area.  New regulatory frameworks, particularly in the US, are poised to offer clearer guidelines, reducing uncertainty and facilitating easier access for institutional investors. The anticipated changes aim for simplified regulations that could enhance market structure while broadening institutional participation beyond just Bitcoin and Ethereum.  Moreover, several factors suggest that a sharp movement in the crypto markets could be on the horizon. The end of quantitative tightening on December 1, 2025, coupled with a growing GDP, signals a conducive environment for crypto.  Related Reading: Dogecoin Long-Term Bullish Structure Still In Play And Will Cross $10 With inflation stabilized below 3% and unemployment at 4.6%, there are indications that the Federal Reserve (Fed) may adopt a more dovish stance, especially with a new Fed Chair expected to take office in May 2026.  Overall, as the new year begins, the crypto market finds itself in a position of underperformance rather than excess. This contrasting state often results in rapid repricings as gaps are closed in response to liquidity alignment.  As a result, Bull Theory analysts believe that 2026 could very well be the year when these disparities start to correct, leading to a potentially bullish environment for cryptocurrencies. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Despite the recent price action, Bitcoin (BTC) closed 2025 as the year with the lowest volatility in its history, driven by market maturity, regulatory developments, and the increasing participation of institutions in the crypto space. Related Reading: Ethereum Optimism For 2026: Analysts Share Bullish Forecast Despite Disappointing End-Of-Year Bitcoin Records Least Volatile Year On Friday, K33 Research data revealed that Bitcoin has recorded the least volatile year in the asset’s history. According to the chart, the flagship cryptocurrency saw its lowest volatility level, measured by the average deviation of daily returns, in 2025, hitting just 2.24%. The recent data shows that BTC fell below the previous lowest year on record, 2023, which registered 2.30% volatility. Moreover, it’s annual volatility has also ended below the 3% mark over the past three years, its lowest levels since 2016. This signals a “clear” diminishing trend, K33 Research noted, as Bitcoin’s volatility has been trending lower year by year, suggesting growing market maturity and stabilizing price action. Crypto trader Niels highlighted that “for the first time, BTC recorded its lowest annual volatility on record, lower than every cycle before it, including the early ‘wild west’ years and the post-ETF era.” As he explained, 2025 was “the calmest year in Bitcoin’s history” despite all the price movements of the years, including the Q4 daily corrections, which saw the flagship crypto retrace up to 16% in a single day. It’s worth noting that BTC’s deepest correction in 2025 saw the cryptocurrency drop nearly 36% in a two-month period, while previous cycles’ corrections recorded retraces of more than 50% during similar periods. Previously, Nic Carter addressed the negative sentiment brewing around Bitcoin and the broader market. He detailed that the market could be considered “boring” now because most of the questions that drove the historical volatility have been answered. Carter also asserted that the space matured significantly with “more serious businesses (…), [and] less chaos” in the industry. The Start Of The ‘Institutional Era’ In his X post, Niels also pointed out that the diminishing trend in Bitcoin volatility was fueled by the massive institutional participation, calling for “More capital. More long-term holders. More institutional participation. [and] Less emotional trading” for the future. Similarly, Bitwise’s CEO, Hunter Horsley has affirmed that the overall crypto market was changing, driven by the significant decrease in regulatory risk, which has led to last year’s spike in institutional adoption and mainstream recognition. Notably, the market saw the second of wave of crypto Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) go live, with funds based on altcoins like Solana (SOL) and XRP breaking multiple records. In addition, the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) trend, led by Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases, poured billions of dollars into cryptocurrencies in 2025. Related Reading: Crypto Hacks Swipe Nearly $3 Billion In 2025 Despite Fewer Attacks – Report In November, Ark Invest’s CEO Cathie Wood stated that growing institutional adoption will be a powerful driver for long-term value for Bitcoin, noting that large-scale institutions have barely dipped their toes into the space and “have a long way to go.” Meanwhile, Head of Research at Grayscale, Zach Pandl, said in an January 2 interview that 2026 could be the “dawn of the institutional era” for crypto. He noted that rising demand for alternative stores of value and progress on bipartisan US crypto market structure legislation could drive Bitcoin to new highs in the first half of the year. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $90,240, a 1.54% increase in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

As 2025 came to a close, Bitcoin (BTC) ended on a negative note, trading more than 30% below its all-time highs and grappling with the formation of a death cross—a technical indicator that traditionally precedes significant price corrections.  Currently hovering just above $89,200, Bitcoin recently saw its 10-week and 50-week simple moving averages (SMAs) cross paths on December 8, a development highlighted by market analyst Ali Martinez on social media site X (previously Twitter). Bitcoin May Face 50%-60% Correction  Martinez emphasized the importance of watching the behavior of these two moving averages on the weekly chart. Historically, each time Bitcoin has registered a death cross between the 10-week and 50-week SMAs, it has been followed by substantial corrections.  Related Reading: Dogecoin Long-Term Bullish Structure Still In Play And Will Cross $10 As seen in the cryptocurrency’s weekly chart below, past occurrences of such crossovers have led to price declines of 67% in September 2014, 54% in June 2018, 53% in March 2020, and 64% in January 2022.  With the recent death cross-forming, Martinez suggests that if history is any guide, Bitcoin could face a correction between 50% and 60%, which would place its price anywhere between $50,000 and $38,000.  Adding another layer of complexity to the analysis, market expert Mags has outlined two potential scenarios for Bitcoin’s near future.  Two Scenarios For BTC’s Future Following Bitcoin’s downturn since its October highs above $126,000, it has been trading around the $85,000 mark for several weeks. Coinciding with this, Tether’s USDT dominance has broken out of its previous range, currently maintaining levels above the breakout zone. Since Bitcoin and USDT dominance exhibit an inverse correlation, Mags has identified two main scenarios moving forward. The first, a bullish scenario, hinges on the idea that if USDT dominance begins to decline, the current breakout could turn out to be a fakeout.  Mags asserts that such a move could potentially ignite another expansion in Bitcoin’s price, possibly even leading to a new all-time high before any significant distribution occurs. Related Reading: Here’s How Much The XRP Price Will Be If It Overtakes Ethereum In Market Cap Conversely, Mags outlined a second scenario indicating early signs of a bearish structure. If the broader market trend weakens, Bitcoin might experience a temporary bounce, while USDT dominance forms a higher low near its mid-range before trending back upwards.  In this case, BTC would exhibit a slow distribution pattern, marking neither a crash nor a rapid decline, but rather a gradual, choppy downward movement characteristic of initial bearish market behavior. The next move in USDT dominance is poised to play a crucial role in determining whether the current market represents a mere pause before further price continuation or the onset of an extended distribution phase leading up to a new all-time high. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin closed the year slightly in the red, marking a rare break in the long-observed four-year cycle pattern of one red year followed by three green years. The annual decline was modest—around 6%—and negligible compared to historical drawdowns seen in prior bearish years. Yet despite its limited magnitude, the red close carries symbolic weight, suggesting a shift in market behavior rather than outright weakness. Related Reading: Ethereum Liquidity Rebuilds On Binance: December Inflows Signal Strategic Repositioning Recent on-chain analysis from Axel Adler adds important context to this change. Data tracking cumulative Net Taker Flow shows that aggressive buying peaked around the New Year before fading. Since then, the balance of market aggression has tilted toward sellers, though not in an extreme way. The indicator currently sits in a moderate negative range, signaling that sell-side pressure has increased but remains far from capitulation levels. Historically, similar conditions have tended to coincide with heightened downside sensitivity rather than immediate trend reversals. In practical terms, this suggests that Bitcoin is vulnerable to further weakness if demand fails to recover, but it is not yet displaying the stress typically associated with deeper bear phases. The key takeaway is nuance. Bitcoin is not collapsing, but it is no longer behaving like an asset in a clean, momentum-driven expansion. The shift toward moderate sell pressure, combined with a rare red yearly close, points to a market transitioning into a more complex and selective phase rather than following its familiar cycle script. Derivatives Momentum Turns Cautious as Sell-Side Pressure Aligns Adler’s analysis highlights a growing shift in short-term market behavior through the Bitcoin Net Taker Flow momentum metric, which tracks how aggressively traders are positioning on the long or short side. Unlike cumulative flow, this indicator is designed to react quickly to sentiment changes, offering an early read on shifts in trader behavior rather than longer-term positioning. In recent sessions, this momentum gauge has rolled over decisively. After holding positive territory in late December, the smoothed reading has slipped into negative levels, now hovering around -0.3. While this does not yet reflect extreme stress, it places the market firmly in a moderate bearish pressure regime. The timing is notable: the momentum downturn occurred alongside a deterioration in cumulative Net Taker Flow, reinforcing the signal rather than contradicting it. This alignment matters. When both cumulative pressure and short-term momentum weaken together, it reduces the likelihood that the move is driven by noise or isolated positioning. Instead, it points to a broader shift in trader aggression toward the sell side. Adler notes that deeper downside risk would emerge if momentum continues to weaken, particularly if readings push beyond the -0.4 threshold. Conditions suggest controlled but persistent selling pressure. Bitcoin is not yet in capitulation territory, but the synchronized signals indicate that bearish forces currently have the upper hand, increasing sensitivity to any loss of price support. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Distribution Re-Emerges: BTC Enters A Fragile Price Phase Bitcoin Holds Key Support As Momentum Remains Fragile Bitcoin is consolidating around the $88,000–$90,000 zone after a sharp pullback from its recent highs. Reflecting a market caught between stabilization and lingering downside risk. Price remains below the short-term and medium-term moving averages, signaling that bullish momentum has not yet been reclaimed. The 50-period moving average has turned into dynamic resistance, while the 100-period average is flattening, reinforcing the idea of a broader compression phase rather than an immediate trend reversal. Importantly, Bitcoin is still holding well above the 200-period moving average, which continues to slope upward. This suggests that, from a higher-timeframe perspective, the broader structure has not fully broken down. However, the loss of the $100,000–$105,000 region earlier marked a clear regime shift from expansion to distribution. Increasing sensitivity to sell-side pressure. Volume has notably declined during the recent sideways movement, indicating a lack of conviction from both buyers and sellers. This supports the view that the market is digesting prior excesses rather than aggressively repricing lower. Still, repeated failures to push back above the $92,000–$95,000 range highlight weak demand at higher levels. As Bitcoin holds the $85,000–$88,000 support band, consolidation remains the dominant scenario. A breakdown below this area would likely open the door to deeper retracements. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Altcoins closed 2025 weaker versus Bitcoin, marking a fourth consecutive year of underperformance. According to market data that tracks the TOTAL3/BTC ratio — which measures all altcoins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum against Bitcoin — the ratio finished lower for calendar years 2022, 2023, 2024 and 2025. That streak has left traders and fund managers rethinking the old pattern where smaller tokens would often surge after Bitcoin rallies. Related Reading: Crypto ETFs Defy The Pullback With $32 Billion In Fresh Investor Cash Altcoins Underperform Bitcoin Market watchers say Bitcoin’s share of the overall crypto market has grown. Bitcoin dominance was reported at roughly 59–60% during the late 2025 selloff, a level that squeezed room for other tokens. Based on reports, small-cap tokens hit their lowest point in four years as money flowed into larger, more liquid assets. Bitcoin itself slipped from an October peak and ended the year in negative territory, a development covered by major outlets that noted it was the first yearly loss for Bitcoin since 2022. Altcoins have now dropped against Bitcoin for 4 years in a row pic.twitter.com/K3rJhSh1tM — Benjamin Cowen (@intocryptoverse) January 1, 2026 Widespread Losses And Heavy Market Moves Several data providers found the median performance among the top 30 altcoins was negative for the year. Market value across the crypto sector fell sharply in late 2025, with some estimates saying more than $1 trillion was erased from total market capitalization during the downturn. Traders described 2025 as a year that began with optimism but closed with broad losses, and many small tokens that rose earlier in the year gave those gains back when risk appetite faded. What Analysts Are Saying Some analysts argue that institutional flows and investor preference for liquidity were important drivers of this trend. Others point to macro pressures in the US and global markets that reduced appetite for speculative positions. Reports note that for an altcoin rebound to beat Bitcoin again, fresh capital would need to rotate specifically into smaller tokens, rather than simply following Bitcoin’s moves. That shift has not been evident so far as 2026 unfurls. The TOTAL3/BTC measure is being used by many traders to gauge altcoin strength versus Bitcoin. When that ratio falls year after year, it means a unit of Bitcoin buys more altcoin market cap than before. Market trackers used by exchanges and analytics firms flagged the persistent downward trend across the last four calendar years, which is an unusual run relative to prior cycles when altcoins sometimes outpaced Bitcoin for parts of a market cycle. Related Reading: Crypto Exchange Korbit Fined $1.90 Million By South Korean Regulators Cautious Stance Investors are staying cautious. Volatility remains high and liquidity can dry up fast in smaller tokens, which makes large moves possible both ways. Based on reports, any meaningful restoration of altcoin gains will likely require clear, sustained capital flows and improved market sentiment. Until that happens, Bitcoin’s share of market capital will probably remain elevated, keeping pressure on smaller tokens. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Prediction markets and analyst desks are sending different signals about Bitcoin’s near-term path. Traders on Polymarket appear cautious, while some big-name firms keep calling for big gains in 2026. Related Reading: Crypto Exchange Korbit Fined $1.90 Million By South Korean Regulators Market Odds And Trader Caution According to Polymarket prices, Bitcoin has just a 23% chance of reaching $150,000 before 2027. The odds are higher at lower targets: 47% for $120,000, 35% for $130,000 and 29% for $140,000. Traders are most comfortable with $100,000, which carries about an 80% chance. That spread shows bettors are pricing risk tightly as the clock runs toward the new year. Bitcoin closed 2025 in the red, a fact that has likely cooled some enthusiasm. Reports have disclosed that gold and silver hit fresh highs in the fourth quarter of 2025, while crypto prices held mostly flat. The old four-year halving cycle that many chartists relied on is being questioned, and that doubt is being priced in. Technical Signals Based on the latest Bitcoin price outlook, BTC is expected to climb 3% to about $91,815 by February 1, 2026. Technical signals point to a Bearish mood, while the Fear & Greed Index stands at 28, reflecting Fear. Over the past 30 days, Bitcoin posted gains on 15 of those days, or 50%, with price swings averaging 2%. Policy Shifts Could Change The Math US President Donald Trump is expected to name a new Federal Reserve chair soon, and many market participants are betting that interest rates will be cut afterward. That idea has already helped send precious metals higher. At the same time, regulators in Washington are pushing crypto bills such as the GENIUS Act and the CLARITY Act, which backers say could give clearer rules and, in time, more institutional interest. Analysts Still Offer Bullish Targets Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has publicly predicted that Bitcoin could reach $180,000 by the end of 2026, citing stronger institutional interest and better regulatory clarity as reasons for his bullish outlook. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Bear Market Might Not Be New: Data Points To A 2-Month Slide Analysts at JPMorgan have suggested a theoretical Bitcoin price around $170,000 in 2026, based on a model comparing Bitcoin’s behavior to gold and assuming continued capital flows into the crypto market. Grayscale’s 2026 digital asset outlook expects Bitcoin to exceed its previous all-time high in the first half of 2026, implying a move above its record peak of around $126,000 (though not giving a specific numerical target, the implication is toward significant upward momentum). Policymakers, traders and analysts are all weighing different risks. Market prices reflect caution today, while forecasts offer a brighter view for the months ahead. Which one proves right will depend on policy moves, investor appetite and whether new trading patterns replace the cycle many thought they could count on. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Crypto analyst Crypto Whale has explained why the Bitcoin price could still crash to as low as $25,000. The analyst also stated this would form the macro bottom for the leading crypto, as it recovers from this bear market.  Why The Bitcoin Price Could Drop To As Low As $25,000 In an X post, Crypto Whale stated that the monthly chart suggested that the Bitcoin price could form a macro bottom near $25,000 sometime in 2026. The analyst further remarked that if history rhymes, these deep retracements tend to mark long-term accumulation zones. He added that this doesn’t signify the end of the cycle but the reset before the next expansion.  However, in another X post, Crypto Whale suggested that the Bitcoin price isn’t yet in a bear market, highlighting how the 2026 bull run is likely to unfold. He stated that this month, the crypto market will see a Bitcoin-led rally, while there will be a broad altcoin expansion in February. The analyst expects the bull trap to set in in March, which he predicts would lead to volatility and panic selling.  Related Reading: Analyst Reveals Why The Bitcoin Price Is Extremely Bearish Right Now Once that happens, Crypto Whale predicts that May will usher in the capitulation phase, while a full bear market confirmation will happen in June. This outlook for the Bitcoin price comes as research firm XWIN Research noted that BTC has not clearly entered a new bullish trend. The firm further stated that the crypto market remains in a high-volatility range environment, which is neither decisively bullish nor bearish.  Meanwhile, XWIN Research raised the possibility that the Bitcoin price could drop to as low as $50,000. They stated that this could happen if recession risks intensify, with deleveraging and ETF outflows pushing the leading crypto below $80,000 and making $50,000 a possibility.  BTC Death Cross Signals Drop To $38,000 In an X post, crypto analyst Ali Martinez drew attention to a death cross, which has been recurring on the BTC weekly chart. The analyst noted that if history repeats itself, the Bitcoin price could record a similar 50% to 60% correction, dropping to as low as $38,000 in the process.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Decision Phase, But What Does It Mean For The Crypto Market? This death cross between the 10-week and 50-week simple moving averages is said to have occurred in September 2014, leading to a Bitcoin price correction of 67%. It also occurred in June 2018, March 2020, and January 2022, resulting in price corrections of 54%, 53%, and 64%, respectively.  Martinez opined that the zone between $50,000 and $38,000 is starting to become interesting from a long-term spot accumulation standpoint. He added that the market will confirm the next move for the Bitcoin price in its own time.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $88,700, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com

According to CryptoQuant’s head of research Julio Moreno, Bitcoin may already be two months into a bear market after several of his indicators flipped to bearish in early November. Related Reading: Crypto Headed For A $10 Trillion Future? Hoskinson Says RWA Is The Key Moreno pointed to the price sliding below its one-year moving average as the clearest technical confirmation, and he used that signal to argue a lower trading range may be on the path ahead. Bitcoin Technical Signals, Market Mood Moreno said a likely bottom could sit near the realized price, which he put in the $56,000–$60,000 band. That would mean a drawdown of roughly 55% from Bitcoin’s all-time high — a drop that is large but smaller than past crashes that hit 70% or 80%. Market momentum is muted. Bitcoin began 2025 near $93,000, peaked at about $126,050 in October, and ended the year below where it started, according to CoinGecko. Trading hovered around $88,920 as of Friday, based on available data. Derivatives Show Caution Ahead Of Expiry Bitcoin was holding the $87,000–$89,000 range as $1.85 billion in options approached expiry. Reports show derivatives volume fell 39% while open interest remained flat, a mix that points to hesitation rather than aggressive positioning by traders. Technical measures show price compression near support, and traders are watching expiry closely because a larger move could follow when those contracts settle. Volatility has been lower than in some previous selloffs, and that has left price action tighter than many expected. Institutional Accumulation And The Missing Shock Moreno and others note the environment feels structurally different. Large institutional players and regulated ETFs have been buying more regularly, and those flows are not known to be selling in panic. That steady demand has helped prevent the kind of cascading failures seen in 2022, when Terra, Celsius and FTX collapsed and amplified losses across the market. Because those big shocks did not occur this time, the drawdown looks more controlled, even if prices are moving down. Outlook Hinges On Macro And Regulation Some analysts still predict 2026 could bring fresh highs, citing expected US rate cuts and a friendlier policy stance in Washington. At the same time, observers are watching whether Bitcoin’s tighter link to US stocks holds as macro and regulatory decisions land. If the correlation weakens, crypto may chart its own course. If it stays strong, the path for Bitcoin could be shaped largely by broader market moves rather than crypto-specific flows. Related Reading: Crypto Exchange Korbit Fined $1.90 Million By South Korean Regulators What Traders Will Watch Based on reports and Moreno’s view, the key items to monitor are the one-year moving average, realized price levels near $56,000–$60,000, the outcome of options expiries, and whether institutional buyers continue steady purchases. Price action has been calmer than some past crises, but that calm has masked real downside risk. Analysts and traders are split; some expect a return to growth next year, while others are preparing for lower prices before any sustained recovery. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

The purchase is part of Tether's strategy to use up to 15% of its quarterly profits for bitcoin acquisitions.

Head of research at on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has explained how demand makes the basis of a Bitcoin cycle, rather than price performance. Bitcoin Apparent Demand Has Been Declining Recently In a new post on X, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno has talked about Bitcoin cycles from a different lens. “Most are focusing on price performance to define a cycle, when it is demand what they should be looking to,” noted Moreno. Related Reading: XRP At Risk Of A Drop To $0.80? Analyst Makes The Case The analyst has gauged the “demand” for the cryptocurrency using the Apparent Demand indicator, which compares the daily miner issuance against the changes in the 1-year dormant supply. The first of these, the miner issuance, is the amount that miners are “minting” on the network every day by receiving block rewards. This metric essentially reflects the “production” of the asset. The 1-year inactive supply, on the other hand, can be thought of as the cryptocurrency’s “inventory.” Thus, the Apparent Demand basically compares the production of Bitcoin against changes taking place in its inventory. Below is the chart shared by Moreno that shows the trends in the 30-day and 1-year versions of the Apparent Demand over the past decade. As is visible in the graph, the last few Bitcoin cycles have all transitioned into a bear market when the Apparent Demand has plunged into the negative region on both the monthly and yearly timeframes. In the current cycle, the 30-day Apparent Demand has plunged into the red zone recently, suggesting that the monthly demand for the asset has been negative. On the annual scale, the metric is still at a positive level, but its value has been following a downtrend. If this decline keeps up, it won’t be long before the indicator has dipped into the negative territory. Considering the pattern from the previous cycles, the current structure in the Apparent Demand is certainly looking bearish. It only remains to be seen, though, whether the yearly version of the metric will cross into the red zone or if it will rebound, signaling the return of demand. Spot demand isn’t the only way to measure Bitcoin demand these days. With the advent of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), there has been some fresh off-chain demand coming into the cryptocurrency this cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Coinbase Premium At Rare Discount As US Demand Weakens As on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about in an X post, the 30-day netflow related to the US BTC spot ETFs has remained in the negative zone recently, indicating demand has been muted in this side of the market as well. BTC Price Bitcoin has taken to consolidation recently as its price is still floating around the $88,000 level. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s recent inability to escape a tight trading range may have less to do with spot Bitcoin ETF flows than many headlines suggest, and more to do with the derivatives complex still doing most of the heavy lifting, even as futures activity cools. That’s the core argument from CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc), who said Bitcoin futures volumes have been “cut in half since November 22,” dropping from $123 billion in daily volume to $63 billion. Futures, Not ETFs, Are Holding Bitcoin In Place The slowdown, he added, “partly explains the low volatility observed on BTC in recent weeks.” But the bigger point is relative scale: at $63 billion per day, futures still represent “nearly 20 times the volume of spot Bitcoin ETFs ($3.4B) and about 10 times spot market volumes ($6B),” according to the analyst. In other words, even if ETF outflows are real and visible, they may not be the dominant marginal force setting the tone. “Many continue to point to ETFs, which have experienced significant outflows in recent weeks,” Darkfost wrote. “While these outflows do contribute to selling pressure, futures markets clearly remain the dominant force in overall volumes.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Dump Is Over: On-Chain Data Just Flipped Darkfost pointed to net taker volume, a derivatives metric used to infer whether aggressive buying or selling is dominating, as a cleaner read on why price has struggled to trend. He framed it in conditional terms based on prior market behavior: “Each time net taker volume has turned negative, Bitcoin has entered a corrective phase. When this indicator moves into negative territory, selling volume dominates.” In his telling, the market has been living with that bias for months. Since July, net taker volume has “generally remained negative,” he said, with one notable interruption: “A noticeable slowdown occurred in early October, allowing Bitcoin to set a new all time high, but selling pressure quickly regained control. Today, selling volumes continue to dominate and have kept Bitcoin trapped in a range for about a month.” There is, however, a tentative improvement in the same dataset. Darkfost said futures-driven selling pressure has declined since early November, with net taker volume improving from around -$489 million to -$93 million. He described that as “a positive signal,” but not yet enough to change the regime. “Liquidity remains weak,” he wrote, adding that ETF and spot volumes are “still too limited to allow BTC to break out of its current consolidation phase.” Demand Is Key In a separate X post, CryptoQuant’s Head of Research Julio Moreno added a broader framing that shifts attention away from chart-based cycle narratives and toward demand dynamics. “Most are focusing on price performance to define a cycle, when it is demand what they should be looking to,” Moreno wrote. “Bitcoin demand is contracting on monthly terms and slowing down significantly on an annual basis (and about to get into negative territory).” Alongside the futures-driven explanation for Bitcoin’s stall, the selling pressure from long-term holders (LTHs) emerged in recent weeks as the main driver for Bitcoin lagging performance against the stock market and gold. As reported yesterday, the long-term holder selling appeared to have stopped, according to multiple on-chain commentators, with around 10,700 BTC transitioning into long term held coins. Related Reading: 2026 Bitcoin Price Predictions: What Banks, Institutions And Experts Forecast In his latest post, leading Glassnode analyst CryptoVizArt argued the change is more about tempo than direction. “LTHs didn’t stop selling,” the analyst wrote, claiming LTHs “are still spending ~7.3k BTC/day (7D SMA) and still realizing

Bitcoin’s short-term price action is still without bullish momentum, and according to macroeconomist Henrik Zeberg, the longer-term outlook may be deteriorating as well.  Henrik Zeberg shared a strongly bearish assessment of the market’s current structure in a post on the social media platform X with the conclusion that Bitcoin is no longer behaving like an asset in a healthy expansion phase. Instead, he described Bitcoin as approaching an important peak, warning that the current structure carries an elevated risk of a sharp downside move once that peak is in place. Bitcoin’s Expanding Diagonal Points To Price Top Zeberg’s Bitcoin outlook is based on the expanding diagonal structure on Bitcoin’s monthly candlestick timeframe chart. This long-term pattern, which has been playing out since Bitcoin’s creation, shows increasing volatility, with the Bitcoin price making higher highs and lower lows with a widening range.  Related Reading: People Are Not Ready For Bitcoin; Analyst Reveals What’s Coming Next According to the chart he shared, Bitcoin appears to be completing the final stages of this structure, and this is expected to be characterized by exhaustion. Zeberg labels the current zone as a topping area, where upside progress becomes increasingly unstable even if the price continues to increase. Interestingly, the chart projected a final surge as a blow-off top that could carry Bitcoin to the mid-$150,000 range. However, in this framework, that final push is not a sign of strength but a hallmark of late-cycle overconfidence. Expanding diagonals tend to resolve violently once the structure breaks, and Zeberg views the current setup as looking like where optimism peaked just before a reversal. From Euphoria To A Deep Crash Scenario Zeberg’s most controversial claims are in his projected downside targets. According to him, once the final euphoric rally plays out and Bitcoin reaches above $150,000, it could enter into a collapse on a scale that most Bitcoin investors currently consider unthinkable.  Related Reading: Analyst Predicts When The Bitcoin Supercycle Will Actually Begin He compared the setup to the dot-com era, when the Nasdaq fell by more than 80%, and noted that Bitcoin has historically amplified both upside and downside moves. Based on that logic, he predicted a scenario where a broader AI and crypto bubble unwinds, leading to a Bitcoin price crash of about 97% or 98% from the eventual peak. This translates into a technical minimum target between $3,000 and $4,000, with the possibility of even deeper declines. Although the final rally may be dramatic, holding through the subsequent crash could be devastating for unprepared investors. Zeberg also highlighted momentum indicators that he believes support the bearish outlook. Bitcoin is showing what he describes as massive bearish divergence on the monthly timeframe. This is a situation where price continues to grind higher but momentum indicators such as the RSI fail to confirm those highs.  Another indicator is the monthly MACD, which is also approaching, or already printing, a bearish crossover on the long-term chart. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

A veteran market analyst has flagged a technical pattern that could signal a turning point for Bitcoin after months of underperformance versus gold. The move comes as traders weigh whether the long run of gains for the yellow metal has exposed limits in Bitcoin’s safe-haven story. Related Reading: Gold And Stocks Ran Ahead, But Bitcoin May Close The Gap In 2026 Bitcoin Versus Gold Ratio Down The Bitcoin-to-gold ratio has plunged. It fell from 32 on Oct. 5 to about 20 today, a drop of more than 37%. According to the data, that means one Bitcoin bought roughly 32 ounces of gold in early October but now buys about 20. The ratio’s slide has accelerated since gold’s rally took hold and Bitcoin’s price slipped below key levels. Daily readings point to a possible change in momentum. On Nov. 21 the BTC/GOLD pair hit a low of 20 and the RSI stood at 21.30. A lower low near Dec. 1 came with a higher RSI low of 26.83. Then another trough at 19 on Dec. 26 coincided with a higher RSI low of 32.21. That’s a valid bullish divergence on the daily timeframe for BTCUSD vs. Gold. Interested to see where that leads us into 2026. pic.twitter.com/D6ei8HsIDy — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) December 31, 2025 Based on reports, Michaël van de Poppe called this pattern a “strong” bullish divergence on the daily chart, a setup traders watch because it can show selling pressure easing even as prices make new lows. Technical Signals Show Cooling Selling Pressure On the weekly chart the picture adds weight to the signal. The weekly RSI for the BTC/GOLD pair has sunk to about 31.85 at press time. That level was last seen during the November 2022 sell-off tied to the FTX collapse, a point that marked a bottom in that cycle. Reports also link similar RSI lows to the bottoms seen in 2015 and 2018. Taken together, the daily divergence and the low weekly RSI make a stronger case that the downtrend may be losing steam, though nothing is guaranteed. Market Sentiment Splits Investors Gold’s rally has been dramatic. Reports show gold surged by over 70% in 2025 while Bitcoin fell by 7% over the year in some measures. At press time Bitcoin trades at $87,750, down 4.8% year-to-date. The breakdown in the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio and Bitcoin’s continued weakness below $100,000 have prompted fresh questions about the “digital gold” story as bullion posts historic gains. Short-term money appears to favor gold for capital protection. Many traders are treating the metal as a shelter while it climbs to new highs. Long-term holders, however, still point to Bitcoin’s potential for big upside once risk appetite returns. Related Reading: Crypto Headed For A $10 Trillion Future? Hoskinson Says RWA Is The Key According to market watchers, the near-term outlook hinges on whether the BTC/GOLD ratio and price action deliver follow-through above key levels. Until that happens, signals will remain tentative. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

According to Farside Investors data, US investors put close to $32 billion into US crypto exchange-traded funds in 2025 even as markets lost steam late in the year. Related Reading: Crypto Headed For A $10 Trillion Future? Hoskinson Says RWA Is The Key Spot Bitcoin ETFs drew the biggest share, with $21.4 billion in net inflows. That is smaller than the $35 billion that poured into Bitcoin ETFs in 2024. Blackrock Dominates Flows BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF, IBIT, accounted for most of the activity. Reports show IBIT took in about $24.7 billion. That makes its inflows roughly five times larger than the nearest rival, Fidelity’s FBTC. Market watchers noted IBIT ranked near the top among all ETF flows, placing behind only a few broad index funds and a big treasury bond fund. If IBIT’s number is removed, the wider spot Bitcoin ETF group actually finished the year with about $3 billion in combined outflows. Grayscale’s Bitcoin product lost nearly $4 billion on the year. Bitcoin’s price was lower than at the start of 2025; it began the year around $93,500. Ethereum Interest Strong But Cooling Based on reports, interest in Ethereum ETFs was real, but the momentum looks uneven. BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust, ETHA, sits at nearly $12.6 billion in inflows. Fidelity’s FETH follows at $2.6 billion, while Grayscale’s Ethereum Mini Trust ETF holds about $1.5 billion. Still, public on-chain data showed little renewed demand for spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs in the last month of the year, suggesting flows may slow into 2026. Ether ETFs benefited from being new and giving investors a regulated way to own ETH, but recent days have seen quieter buying. Spot Ether ETFs, which only became widely tradable after their July 2024 launch, gathered $9.6 billion in their first full year. Spot Solana ETFs, launched in late October, added $765 million through year end. Altcoin ETFs Show Curiosity, Not Frenzy Litecoin and XRP ETFs also began trading in the latter half of the year, giving investors more choices for regulated altcoin exposure. The sums are small compared with Bitcoin and Ether. Solana’s $765 million is an example of early interest that has not yet turned into a large, steady stream of assets. These products are being tested by the market. Related Reading: Gold And Stocks Ran Ahead, But Bitcoin May Close The Gap In 2026 Global Flows Tell A Different Story Industry trackers reported that crypto ETFs listed worldwide experienced $2.95 billion in net outflows in November, and there was about $179 billion invested in crypto ETFs globally at the end of that month. Regulators and exchanges moved faster this year under new SEC leadership that was more open to approvals, which in turn helped institutional adoption in the US. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has managed to reclaim the $88,000 level, offering a brief sense of stability after weeks of choppy price action. However, the broader picture remains fragile. Since early December, BTC has repeatedly failed to push above the $90,000 threshold, a level that continues to cap upside attempts and reinforce market hesitation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Sets The Stage For Bullish Cross In Q1 2026 Adding to the cautious outlook, CryptoZeno, a CryptoQuant analyst, points to miner behavior as a growing short-term risk factor. According to his analysis, Bitcoin miner outflows are signaling rising sell-side pressure, a dynamic that has historically mattered during periods of weak momentum. The data shows a clear relationship between miner activity and short-term price movements. Sharp increases in total miner outflows—especially when large volumes of BTC are sent to exchanges—have frequently coincided with local price pullbacks rather than sustained rallies. Miners are often considered informed market participants, typically operating with relatively low cost bases. When their distribution activity increases, it can introduce additional supply at moments when spot demand is already struggling to absorb selling pressure. While miner outflows alone do not define a broader market top, they can amplify short-term weakness, particularly in range-bound conditions like the one Bitcoin is currently facing. Miner Outflows Reinforce Short-Term Downside Risks The report explains that recent spikes in Bitcoin miner outflows have repeatedly been followed by immediate or near-term price weakness, reinforcing the link between miner behavior and short-term market dynamics. These episodes suggest that miners—often considered informed participants with relatively low production cost bases—are actively distributing supply during periods of strength or heightened uncertainty. While a miner selling on its own does not signal a macro market top, it frequently adds incremental supply at sensitive moments, increasing short-term pressure when liquidity is thin, or spot demand is unable to absorb new inflows. CryptoZeno adds that elevated miner outflows typically reflect a combination of factors. These include profit realization after rallies, the need to cover operational expenses, or a defensive response to weakening price structure. From an on-chain perspective, this behavior is not unusual during corrective or range-bound phases. However, when miner transfers to exchanges cluster within a short time window, their impact becomes more pronounced. Concentrated outflows can materially increase sell-side pressure on exchanges, raising the probability of corrective price moves rather than sustained upside continuation. At the macro level, miner distribution becomes especially influential when paired with broader headwinds. Neutral or declining risk appetite, tighter liquidity conditions, or cooling derivatives sentiment all reduce the market’s capacity to absorb additional supply. In such environments, miner-driven selling is less likely to be smoothly digested and can instead amplify downside volatility, keeping Bitcoin vulnerable in the near term. Related Reading: XRP Slides To $1.80 While Binance Reserves Continue To Decline Bitcoin Struggles Below Key Resistance Bitcoin continues to trade in a tight consolidation range after failing to reclaim the $90,000 level, as shown on the daily chart. Following the sharp breakdown in November, price found support in the $85,000–$87,000 zone, where selling pressure began to ease and volatility compressed. Since then, BTC has been moving sideways, signaling indecision rather than a decisive trend reversal. From a technical perspective, Bitcoin remains capped below its declining short-term moving averages. The 50-day moving average continues to slope downward and acts as dynamic resistance. The 100-day and 200-day moving averages sit well above the current price, reinforcing a broader bearish structure. As long as BTC trades below these levels, upside attempts are likely to be sold into rather than sustained. Related Reading: XRP Selling Pressure Returns: Investors Shift From Holding to Distribution After the heavy sell-off in November, trading volume has gradually declined. This suggests that aggressive sellers have stepped back, but new demand has not yet entered with conviction. This typically characterizes a stabilization phase rather than the start of a new impulsive move. Structurally, Bitcoin is forming a base, but confirmation remains absent. A daily close above $90,000 could signal a meaningful shift in momentum. And would open the door for a recovery toward higher resistance zones. Conversely, a loss of the $85,000 support area could expose BTC to another leg lower. For now, the chart reflects balance, hesitation, and a market waiting for a catalyst. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The industry is realizing that Bitcoin was deliberately designed to prioritize simple, deterministic validation over complex on-chain execution. This design choice minimizes resource requirements, preserves decentralization, and reduces systemic risk even if it means pushing complex logic, programmability, and heavy computation to higher layers or external systems. How Bitcoin Avoids Complex State Transitions The fundamental limitation of Bitcoin is its inability to run heavy verification logic at a low cost, a core constraint that every BitVM-based bridge must navigate. According to the GOAT Network post on X, to address these issues, they are introducing a BitVM2 design that will ensure disputes are affordable enough to be executed under real fee conditions. The security mechanism is addressed through optimistic verification using garbled circuits (GC). Related Reading: Bitcoin Sees Unusual Short-Term Supply Spike, Raising Bearish Flags This operator, which is set to launch soon, publishes the garbled-circuit artifacts off-chain, while committing only the relevant labels on-chain. If the computation is correct, no on-chain action will be required. Meanwhile, if something is wrong, a challenger does not need to replay an expensive computation on-chain.  Instead, they produce a minimal fraud-proof to reveal the output “0” label that contradicts the operator’s claimed result. At that point, the on-chain step is about demonstrating a contradiction, which will reduce the cost of disputes and change the economics of security.  A practical detail in BitVM designs is that the garbled circuit size matters, and pairing heavy verification can cause bloated circuits. To avoid this, BitVM2 integrates a designated-verifier SNARK, which reduces verifier complexity so that the garbled circuits remain within realistic size limits. For end users, the implication is that the cheaper, more reliable depute paths make it harder for the bridge to stall when the fees spike.  Public Companies Are Becoming Bitcoin’s Strongest Buyers While several projects are being introduced to improve the efficiency of Bitcoin, seasoned crypto expert and the founder of the Wealth Mastery Newspaper, Lark Davis, has revealed that many public companies are aggressively accumulating BTC. Currently, public companies collectively hold 1.09 million BTC, representing 5.1% of the total BTC supply, which is a new all-time high. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Sets The Stage For Bullish Cross In Q1 2026 However, the latest major aggressive purchases have come from MicroStrategy and Metaplanet. Strategy just announced another 1,200 BTC purchase, pushing its total holdings to 672,000 BTC. Asia-based firm Metaplanet also bought an additional 4,200 BTC in December, bringing its total holdings to 35,000 BTC. Davis pointed out that other recent purchases have come from Cango Inc., Bitdeer Technologies, and Anap Holdings. While retail investors are demonstrating weakening sentiment, public companies or institutional investors continue to stack regardless of the ongoing market. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is showing early signs of hesitation after a strong upward move, positioning the market at a critical decision phase. A crypto analyst has shared details on whether the current pause reflects healthy consolidation or a shift in momentum that could influence the broader crypto market.  A recent analysis by crypto analyst Tony Severino shows that Bitcoin is entering a critical decision phase, with price action indicating a maturing trend. His chart highlights a robust upward structure that has begun to slow, signaling a shift in market behavior rather than an immediate price reversal. Notably, this moment is significant not just for Bitcoin but for the broader crypto market, which often follows its lead.  Crypto Market Next Move As Bitcoin Hits Key Phase Severino’s chart illustrates a steady climb in Bitcoin’s price, marked by higher highs and measured pullbacks, indicating that buyers have largely been in control. However, recent candles show slower momentum and smaller bodies, suggesting that BTC’s bullish strength is starting to waver. The analyst has stated that the market is currently testing whether buyers still have the strength to push prices to upper levels or if Bitcoin’s upward move has run its course. Related Reading: Economist Blasts Strategy’s Bitcoin Bet, Despite $8 Billion Profits, Here’s Why Another key feature of the chart is the Doji candle forming near the top of the trend. Severino notes that this candle should not be interpreted as a sell signal, but rather an acknowledgement by the market that Bitcoin’s upside certainty has ended. The candle is also viewed as an early sign of hesitation, with multiple market outcomes possible.  Severino explained that the market could enter a period of digestion, where Bitcoin’s price consolidates while maintaining a larger uptrend. Alternatively, the pause could signal distribution, with stronger hands beginning to transfer risk as BTC’s momentum fades.  Another possibility is a final push higher driven by renewed conviction and late-cycle momentum. In that scenario, Bitcoin could break out of its current slowdown and extend gains before any new correction. Notably, Severino’s chart analysis does not confirm which path the market could ultimately take, only that the next sequence is expected to be decisive.  Bitcoin Price Faces Potential Decline To $35,000 In a separate post, crypto market expert Lofty warned that Bitcoin could extend its downtrend, potentially triggering a deeper price crash. He pointed out striking similarities between the current BTC cycle and the 2021 bull run, highlighting a Double Top pattern that has preceded a significant price drop in the past cycle.  Related Reading: Bitcoin 4-Year Cycle Is Dead: Crypto Trader Explains What Happens Next According to Lofty, if Bitcoin follows its historical four-year trend, its price could collapse to $35,000 within the next two weeks. Notably, the cryptocurrency has already completed its Double Top formation and is showing early signs of a prolonged downtrend. If the price declines to $35,000, it would represent a more than 60% drop from its current value of over $88,500. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is stuck in a tight consolidation after its sharp rejection from the $100,000 region, with price compressing into a narrow range that reflects growing market tension. As momentum builds beneath the surface, attention is focused on a decisive breakout or breakdown that could define Bitcoin’s next major move. Bitcoin Trapped In Post-Breakdown Compression According to analyst CyrilXBT, Bitcoin remains mired in a period of intense price compression following its significant breakdown from the $100,000 threshold. This cooling-off phase reflects the market’s attempt to stabilize after being rejected at a historic milestone, resulting in a loss of immediate upward momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hovering In A Descending Range, But Alts Are Quietly Gaining Momentum The current technical structure is defined by a series of lower highs, which are effectively squeezing the price into an increasingly narrow corridor. This tightening action is concentrated around the $88,000 to $90,000 range. It creates a high-pressure environment where the asset is searching for its next definitive directional catalyst. CyrilXBT characterizes this current behavior as “classic post-distribution chop,” a phase typically followed by a period where large holders exit positions, leading to erratic sideways movement. It also serves as a necessary reset before a new trend can be established. Looking forward, the market is approaching a period of increased volatility that could resolve in two ways. Bitcoin will either stage a bullish breakout through the descending trendline or undergo a final “flush” to the downside, wiping out over-leveraged long positions. Ultimately, this consolidation serves as a strategic battleground to determine which market participants will be shaken out before the next major move. Price Compression Signals A Bigger Move Ahead In a market assessment, Daan Crypto Trades observed that despite the ongoing sideways movement, Bitcoin’s underlying market health remains stable. Specifically, both the BTC funding rates and the spot premium have held their ground, suggesting that the current chop hasn’t yet led to the massive de-leveraging or sentiment shifts often seen during volatile corrections. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Remains Stuck Inside This Range, But A Breakout Could Follow As Bitcoin remains compressed within this range, a major volatility expansion is highly likely. Based on current trends, a decisive move is expected to materialize within the next one to two weeks as the market reaches a breaking point in its consolidation. The primary recommendation during this uncertain phase is to exercise patience and wait for a confirmed breakout rather than attempting to trade every minor fluctuation. By avoiding the temptation to over-leverage in the middle of this range, traders can protect their capital and wait for clear confirmation of the next trend. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com