THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed how Bitcoin could be at risk of a further drawdown after trading at a significant discount to a key cost basis level. Bitcoin Could Retest Active Realized Price Next In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has talked about how Bitcoin has dropped a notable distance below the short-term holder (STH) Realized Price. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain metric that tracks the cost basis of the average investor or address on the BTC network. To any investor, their break-even mark tends to be a level of particular importance, as retests of it can potentially flip their profit-loss situation. Due to this, Realized Price levels have often shown interactions with the asset’s price, as investors make moves to either exit with their money back or buy more to defend their cost basis. Related Reading: Cardano Retests Line That Has Triggered Strong Rebounds Since Nov 2024 A group that’s considered particularly sensitive to short-term volatility is the STH cohort, made up of the investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. The Realized Price of the STHs generally provides support during bullish trends, but with the recent market crash, Bitcoin has plummeted under it. As displayed in the above chart, Bitcoin at its post-crash levels is trading significantly below the STH Realized Price located at $112,500. This means that members of the cohort are now notably underwater. “Historically, discounts with such depth from this level have increased the likelihood of further downside toward lower structural supports,” explained Glassnode. One such support is the Active Realized Price, corresponding to the cost basis of the “economically active” part of the BTC supply. A chunk of the cryptocurrency’s supply has been dormant for so long that it can safely be presumed lost. In other words, these tokens will never make their way back into circulation. Such coins have no effect on the market today, so the Active Realized Price excludes them from the data, labeling them “economically inactive.” The report noted that this level “has often served as a critical reference point during extended corrective phases in prior cycles.” At present, the indicator is sitting near $88,500. Related Reading: Bitcoin & Ethereum Social Sentiment Collapses, But XRP Just Sees Disinterest The Bitcoin STH Realized Price isn’t the only level that the asset has lost recently. As on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has pointed out in an X post, the asset has also declined below the 365-day moving average (MA). CryptoQuant has described the line as “a key technical and psychological support level last broken at the start of the 2022 bear market.” Considering that Bitcoin has lost the STH Realized Price, and now, this level as well, it remains to be seen whether the asset will end up retesting the Active Realized Price and other lower support levels. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $103,300, down over 6% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

In a bold escalation of the crypto-policy debate, Senator Cynthia Lummis has publicly asserted that Bitcoin is the only solution capable of addressing the mounting national debt burden facing the United States. Her comments come amid rising tensions over monetary policy, inflation, and the role of digital assets in reshaping finance. How Bitcoin Could Reshape Treasury Markets Senator Cynthia Lummis has once again made headlines with her support for Bitcoin, stating in a recent Bloomberg interview that BTC is the only solution to America’s mounting national debt. According to a crypto news source, CryptosRus, posted on X, that Lummis expressed her pro-Bitcoin stance, mentioning that BTC is an asset that will continue to grow over time and is the key to offsetting the burgeoning national debt.   Related Reading: Bitcoin In The Crosshairs: US Treasury Secretary Reveals What Senate Democrats Could Learn From BTC Lummis highlighted the concept of a strategic BTC reserve, asserting that it represents the sole viable strategy to offset the national debt. However, CryptosRus noted that her consistent advocacy makes her one of Washington’s most ardent supporters of BTC, pushing for its integration to play the core role of US fiscal strategy. Several companies are actively preparing for this move. An emerging euro-denominated Bitcoin treasury backed by Tyler and Cameron Winklevoss, Treasury_BTC, has announced the appointment of Tycho Onnasch as its new head of BTC strategy. Onnasch is widely recognized within the BTC community for his foundational work on BTC scaling solutions, insightful market analysis, and deep conviction in BTC. Onnasch’s impressive background includes founding Zest Protocol, a leading BTC yield and landing platform, which is supported by BTC heavyweights Tim Draper and Binance Founder Changpeng Zhao. Academically, Tycho holds a degree from Oxford University, with a specialization in economic history. His achievements were further acknowledged with his inclusion in Forbes’ prestigious 30 under 30 Europe list. Onnasch’s role will be instrumental in driving the company’s BTC strategy and influencing its approach to market interpretation. A Healthier Foundation For Bitcoin Next Leg Higher CryptosRus has also reported that BTC has recently experienced its most significant open interest meltdown of its current cycle since the liquidation event that occurred on October 10. The data reveals substantial drops across major platforms, with Binance’s open interest decreasing by $4 billion, Bybit by over $3 billion, and Gate by more than $2 billion. Due to this liquidation event, traders have not rushed back in with leverage.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Lacks Conviction, Market Signals Another Pullback Risk Typically, leverage rebuilds quickly after a wipeout, but the slow recovery from this current scenario suggests that the market confidence is shaken. This sentiment explains the current slow and choppy price action, as the market operates with reduced leverage and fewer aggressive positions.  CryptosRus pointed out that when leverage undergoes such a significant reset, the market often leads to an increase in stability. It lowers the risk of another sudden cascade of liquidations and establishes a healthier foundation for the next price movements. The expert concluded that this is a BTC reset, not a breakdown. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin price is struggling below $104,200. BTC could continue to move down if it stays below the $103,500 resistance. Bitcoin started a fresh decline below the $103,500 support. The price is trading below $103,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $102,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it fails to surpass the $103,500 zone. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $104,000 support level and started a fresh decline. BTC dipped below $103,500 and $102,400 to enter a bearish zone. The decline was such that the price even spiked below the $101,200 support. A low was formed at $100,266 and the price is now consolidating losses. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $104,498 swing high to the $100,266 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $103,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the bulls attempt another recovery wave, the price could face resistance near the $102,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $102,250 level. Besides, there is a key bearish trend line forming with resistance at $102,400 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The next resistance could be $103,500 and the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the recent decline from the $104,498 swing high to the $100,266 low. A close above the $103,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $104,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $105,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $106,200 and $106,500. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $102,400 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support is near the $100,500 level. The first major support is near the $100,000 level. The next support is now near the $98,800 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $96,500 support in the near term. The main support sits at $95,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $100,500, followed by $100,000. Major Resistance Levels – $102,400 and $103,500.

On-chain metrics shows BTC entering an “extremely bearish” phase, with potential downside to $91K or even $72K if key support fails, though Glassnode sees it as a mid-cycle correction rather than full capitulation.

The cryptocurrency market is currently facing significant bearish pressure, with Bitcoin (BTC) struggling to reclaim previously crucial support levels.  Recent data from CoinGecko indicates that Bitcoin has retraced nearly 6% over the past week, a decline that has impacted other major cryptocurrencies, including Ethereum (ETH), XRP, Binance Coin (BNB), and Solana (SOL), all of which have experienced double-digit losses during the same period. Galaxy Digital Lowers Bitcoin Price Target This downturn marks a stark contrast to the bullish sentiment observed earlier in October, when Bitcoin surged to record its current record high slightly above the $126,000 mark due to a wave of margin buying.  However, the euphoria was short-lived, as approximately $20 billion in leveraged positions across the crypto market were abruptly liquidated just days later on October 10, contributing to the ongoing lack of confidence among investors. Michael Novogratz’s Galaxy Digital recently revised its year-end Bitcoin price target down to $120,000, a significant cut from the previous estimate of $185,000, attributing this adjustment to the “significant leverage wipeout.”  Related Reading: Weakness In Major Cryptos: What Key Technical Metrics Indicate For Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Solana Market analytics firm CryptoQuant has pointed out that Bitcoin’s drop below its 365-day moving average near $102,000 could signal a deeper retreat. This moving average has historically acted as a critical support level during this bull cycle, and its failure to hold could lead to a more substantial correction in Bitcoin’s price.  In their analysis, CryptoQuant experts elaborated on the conditions necessary for Bitcoin to reverse its current trajectory and potentially reach new all-time highs. They observed that Bitcoin led a global risk-off movement, testing the critical $100,000 support level.  This decline was influenced by a stronger dollar and ongoing uncertainties regarding Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, which have dampened broader risk appetites across various asset classes.  Notably, there have been four consecutive sessions of approximately $1.3 billion in net outflows from US spot BTC ETFs, reversing what had been one of the strongest tailwinds for the market in 2025. This diminished demand in the spot market has coincided with forced deleveraging, resulting in over $1 billion in long liquidations at recent lows, which briefly breached intraday support before dip buyers stepped in.  Stabilization Of ETF Flows Crucial The options market has further intensified volatility, as dealers remain net short gamma around the $100,000 strike, leading to increased hedging activity near this critical level.  The $100,000 mark now stands as a psychological barrier, and any stabilization in ETF flows could shift market sentiment, provided no new macroeconomic shocks occur. On the macroeconomic front, the analysts assert that the current environment remains supportive, albeit clouded by the ongoing government shutdown in Washington. However, policy clarity remains elusive.  Related Reading: Ethereum Price Needs To Reclaim This Key Level To Prevent Drop To $1,700 The Federal Reserve’s recent 25 basis point cut in October, which included some dissenting opinions, was accompanied by a cautious tone that pushed back against expectations for another cut in December.  Markets are currently pricing in a 60-65% chance of a follow-up move, but as the Fed’s blackout period continues, policymakers may become more comfortable with the idea of pausing, which would help maintain a firm dollar and tight credit conditions. For Bitcoin to break higher sustainably, CryptoQuant’s analysis suggests that a reversal in exchange-traded fund outflows and renewed confidence in risk assets will likely be necessary.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

A day after another billion-dollar liquidation cascade, veteran crypto analyst Trader Mayne says his core thesis is unchanged: the bull cycle’s top is “not in,” and the market is in the process of printing a weekly cycle low that could set up one more leg higher into year-end. “I’ve been banging on the drum about the high not being in,” he said in a November 5 video, adding that he remains “a BTC maxi from the spot perspective,” despite tactical longs and shorts that have been hit-and-miss during the recent volatility. Is The Bitcoin Bottom In? Mayne framed the selloff—coming less than a month after an almost $20 billion wipeout on October 10—as a feature, not a bug, of late-cycle price discovery. He argued that speculative leverage rapidly re-accumulated in altcoins and that majors still offer sufficient volatility with clearer structure. “People were right back on with the leverage… You really can’t teach an old dog new tricks,” he said, while emphasizing he now “primarily focus[es] on the majors” and holds a core spot stack he hasn’t sold. His near-term timing anchor is cycle theory. Drawing on the four-year template popularized by Bob Loukas, Mayne said he expects the broader crypto top to land between late 2025 and early 2026, but he stressed the immediate setup is about nailing a weekly low within a narrow window that “extends until about mid next week, November 10.” Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Crash To $87,000 If This Happens He wants to see “time and space away from this low” and a reclaim of the monthly open around $110,000–$112,000 to confirm that the decline has been exhausted. If that structure forms, he intends to treat $98,000 as the operative bull-market invalidation on a weekly-closing basis: “That will confirm to me that this is our bull market invalidation… at least in the worst case you have a cut point at like $100k Bitcoin.” Mayne supplemented the timing view with a cross-asset read that he says has been reliable in prior impulses: gold tends to rally first, with Bitcoin following “about 60 to 90 days later.” He cited chart work showing gold’s advance now roughly 80–90 days old, which, if the relationship holds, would “line up very well with Bitcoin being ready to make its next move.” He also expects the BTC-versus-gold cross to bounce, implying outperformance of Bitcoin over the precious metal through year-end: “I’m pretty confident this chart is due for a big bounce and we’re going to see gold underperform Bitcoin for the remainder of the year.” A more subjective—but, in his telling, telling—input is the absence of a true “blow-off” in Bitcoin versus the vertical arcs seen in AI-heavy equities and gold. With megacaps like Nvidia running hard since the spring and gold printing a sharp leg higher, he argued that “it just doesn’t sit right… that Bitcoin hasn’t had [its blow-off],” suggesting latent upside energy remains to be released if the weekly low locks in. On market microstructure and seasonality, Mayne pointed to early-month dynamics. In many green months, he said, the low forms in the first third of the month, analogous to how Monday’s range often frames the week for intraday traders. If November is destined to close higher, an early-month low coupled with a monthly-open reclaim would be consistent with his cycle read. “If we’re bullish for November… I want to be a bull above the monthly open,” he said. The scenario analysis was not one-sided. Mayne repeatedly acknowledged bear signals that have emerged on higher timeframes, including a weekly structure break, prior sweeps on the weekly and monthly, and building momentum divergences. Related Reading: Galaxy Digital Slashes Bitcoin EOY Price Target To $120,000 He warned of the possibility that the recent range resolves as distribution—“maybe the banks literally came in… and they’ve just been distributing on us here”—and laid out a lower-high path in which a rally fizzles beneath or just above the prior peak before breaking down. “There’s a world where we make an all-time high, but it’s just a weak one… you’re going to have the biggest bear div of all bear divs up here,” he said, cautioning that a marginal new high followed by a swift rejection would flip his posture. In the medium-term, he remains open to two competing macro arcs. In the base case, the classic four-year rhythm holds, the late-2025 window marks the cycle top, and 2026 skews bearish, though he expects drawdowns on Bitcoin to be “truncated” relative to prior 80% collapses given deeper institutional participation. In the alternative, the market “right-translates”—an atypical extension in which a new all-time high could print as late as Q1 2026—forcing a reassessment of the four-year template. Either way, he said, his plan is to sell strength on the next leg and reassess if the market presents higher-low continuation after a new high: “If the market appears to still be bullish, guess what? I can get back on the bull train.” Mayne also flagged the US dollar as a 2026 risk pivot, arguing the DXY is carving a “serious low” on multi-month and yearly structures that could precede a “deflationary rally.” While not a one-to-one driver, he said a strong dollar tends to pressure crypto and other risk assets. That macro overlay, combined with what he views as froth in AI-linked equities, underpins his caution beyond the next advance. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $103,412. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin fell to a five-month low before staging a modest recovery, testing a crucial support line that traders say could decide the short-term fate of the bull market. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Grip Holds — But Signs Of Weakness Are Piling Up: Analyst According to Crypto Onchain, Bitcoin hit an intraday low of $98,900 before buyers pushed the price back above $101,000 and later to $103,400 at the time of writing. The top coin’s year-to-date gain sits at close to 10% after peaking at an all-time high of $126,300 in October. Bears Break $107,000 Fortress Based on analysis from Crypto Onchain and on-chain data provider CryptoQuant, Bitcoin lost the $107,000 support after roughly 130 days of trading in a band between that level and $123,000. The move sparked heavy liquidations in the futures market. About $640 million in long positions were wiped out over a 24-hour stretch. That figure, market watchers say, is the second-largest daily long liquidation event since June 2021. The October 10 event remains the largest on record for comparison. The $101,000 level has taken on extra meaning. Traders point out that bulls stepped in near $98,000 and pushed the market back toward the lower trendline of a long-term ascending channel that has held since October 2023. Reports have disclosed that defending this channel bottom would be read as a bullish sign, while a close below it could signal deeper losses and a break in the market structure that has supported the rally. CME Gap Could Pull Price Lower A nearby gap on the CME futures chart sits between $92,000 and $93,000, roughly 10% from current prices, and some analysts are watching that area closely. Historically, Bitcoin has often filled such gaps before resuming its next leg up, and the gap is now a possible target if bearish pressure continues. At the same time, strong buying interest around the $101,000 zone could halt any slide and force prices back up. Liquidations And Market Mood The cascade of liquidations amplified selling pressure, particularly among highly leveraged traders. Futures positions were forcefully closed, and this intensified the intraday drop. Yet buyers were quick to take advantage of the lower levels, and the rebound to $103,000 level showed a degree of demand at current prices. Volume and near-term momentum will be key in determining whether that demand is durable. Related Reading: XRP’s Low Price Isn’t A Problem—It’s Actually A ‘Blessing’, Finance Expert Says Market participants say the most important signal will be a daily close relative to the ascending channel’s lower trendline around $101,000. A sustained close above that mark would likely be read as a buying chance, while a decisive break and continued selling could open the path toward the CME gap near $92,000–$93,000. Broader moves in US equities and large trader activity are also being monitored, since they helped trigger the recent pullback. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is once again at a pivotal moment after briefly dipping below the $100,000 level on Tuesday, testing one of the most important psychological and structural supports of the cycle. The market remains tense as bulls attempt to defend this zone amid rising volatility and persistent selling pressure. Momentum has clearly slowed, and traders are now looking for signs of stabilization as the next directional move takes shape. Related Reading: ‘Bitcoin $100K Break Was Emotional’ – On-Chain Data Shows No Structural Damage According to top analyst Darkfost, a major shift is unfolding beneath the surface — Bitcoin’s open interest across major centralized exchanges continues to struggle to recover. Since the mass liquidation event on October 10, when over $10 billion in leveraged positions were wiped out, the use of leverage has cooled significantly. This has resulted in the largest 30-day decline in open interest of the entire cycle, signaling a widespread de-risking among futures traders. While this sharp decline reflects shaken confidence, it may also serve a constructive purpose. The unwinding of excessive leverage often precedes healthier, more sustainable price action, helping to flush out speculation and rebuild stronger market foundations. Leverage Flush Deepens as Exchanges See Billions in Open Interest Wiped Out Darkfost highlights that Binance has been at the center of this leverage unwind, recording a massive $4 billion decline in Bitcoin open interest over the past month. Other major platforms have faced similar drawdowns, with Bybit losing over $3 billion and Gate.io more than $2 billion. This widespread contraction underscores how aggressively leverage has been removed from the market following October’s liquidation shock. Back on October 10, global open interest dropped by more than $10 billion within hours, one of the most severe leverage resets of the cycle. Historically, after such dramatic events, traders rebuild positions quickly as volatility cools. However, this time the rebound has been notably absent — open interest remains depressed, suggesting that market confidence is still fragile. The ongoing correction continues to discourage over-leveraged activity, forcing traders to adopt more conservative positioning. While this has amplified short-term downside pressure, Darkfost notes that these deleveraging phases are ultimately healthy. They wash out excessive speculation, allowing stronger hands to reaccumulate and laying the groundwork for the next sustained rally. In the medium term, this compression of leverage tends to create a more stable, organic market structure — one driven by spot demand rather than derivatives-driven momentum. Related Reading: Anti-CZ Whale Flips Bullish: Now Long $109M In Ethereum While Holding Massive Meme Shorts Bitcoin Retests Key Support After Heavy Selling Bitcoin is showing signs of stabilization after a sharp sell-off that briefly pushed prices below the critical $100,000 level earlier this week. As of now, BTC trades around $103,000, attempting to recover but facing persistent resistance from the short-term moving averages. The chart shows that Bitcoin remains well below the 50-day (blue) and 100-day (green) moving averages — both now acting as dynamic resistance zones around $110,000. The 200-day MA (red) near $102,000 currently serves as the key support level, and a sustained close below it could open the door to deeper downside, potentially toward $95,000. Related Reading: Balancer Hacker Now Converting Loot to Ethereum: Stolen Funds Surge To $116.6M The recent bounce reflects short-covering and some dip-buying activity, but momentum remains weak. The market structure suggests a shift from bullish to corrective, as lower highs continue to form. For bulls to regain control, Bitcoin would need to reclaim the $110,000–$112,000 region — where heavy liquidity and previous breakdown levels align. Focus remains on whether buyers can hold the $100K–$103K zone. Losing this range would likely trigger another wave of liquidations, while a successful defense could provide the base for a mid-term recovery rally. The market remains fragile, with sentiment still leaning cautious. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is hovering around a precarious stage below the $100,000 psychological level as supply in profit just crashed to a new 2025 low. Amid this decline, Glassnode analysts Chris Beamish, Antoine Colpaert, and CryptoVizArt highlight a complex interplay of structural weakness, cautious investor behavior, and decreased institutional demand. Bitcoin also remains oversold; however, it has yet to enter full capitulation. This suggests that price is fragile but not broken, balancing between recovery and the risk of a deeper decline.  Bitcoin Supply In Profit Crash Signals Weak Demand And Price Bitcoin’s supply in profit has fallen sharply, hitting its lowest level of 2025 and reflecting the broader slowdown in market momentum. Glassnode analysts note that this decline indicates fading demand and persistent sell pressure as the BTC price consolidates near $100,000, after falling 21% from its all-time high above $126,000.  Related Reading: Pundit Highlights Major Move For XRP And RLUSD, Will Price Follow? According to the report, roughly 71% of Bitcoin’s supply remains in profit, near the lower edge of the typical 70% – 90% range seen in mid-cycle slowdowns. This drop marks the lowest probability level of the year, suggesting that BTC’s price stability and recovery may depend on whether fresh demand can return to the market in the coming weeks.  The analysis also disclosed that Bitcoin has broken below the Short-Term Holder’s cost basis of roughly $112,500, and is now struggling to recover, confirming that its earlier bullish phase has ended. They say that the market has been unable to regain a solid footing since the October 10 flash crash and reset, with prices hovering just above the Active Investor’s Realized Price at $88,500.  Additionally, on-chain data shows that long-term holders are contributing to the bearish pressure. Since July, Bitcoin’s total supply has decreased from 14.7 million BTC to 14.4 million BTC, representing a net reduction of approximately 300,000 coins. Glassnode analysts estimate that around 2.4 million BTC have been spent during this period, which is roughly 12% of its circulating supply.  Unlike earlier in the market cycle, these long-term holders are now selling into weakness rather than strength, signaling fatigue and reduced sentiment, likely due to the consistent market declines. While the Relative Unrealized Loss remains moderate at 3.1%, Glassnode analysts highlight that the combination of declining profitability and steady long-term distribution leaves the Bitcoin price in a vulnerable position near $100,000.  Related Reading: Analyst Reveals What Ripple’s Latest Launch In The US Means For The XRP Price ETF Outflows And Unsteady Derivatives Deepen Market Caution In addition to the decline in Bitcoin’s supply in profit, off-chain indicators also point to caution. Glassnode analysts note that US Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen net outflows between $150 million and $700 million per day over the past two weeks, reversing the strong inflow streak from September and early October. This slowdown reflects a significant decline in institutional appetite, with capital rotating out of Bitcoin exposure as the price declines.  Bitcoin’s Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has also turned negative on Binance and major exchanges. In derivatives, analysts noted that the Perpetual Market Directional Premium has declined from $338 million in April to $118 million per month, indicating that traders are pulling back on risk and avoiding aggressive long positions.   For now, Bitcoin remains in a delicate position, oversold but structurally intact. Glassnode experts have stated that the next key test lies at $112,000 and $113,000, where a sustained recovery would signal renewed demand, while further weakness could deepen the correction.   Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Galaxy Digital has cut its 2025 year-end Bitcoin target to $120,000 from $185,000 in a new research alert circulated on November 5 and shared via screenshots on X by Alex Thorn, the firm’s head of firmwide research. In the note titled “Bitcoin Outlook Update: Lowering 2025 YE Target to $120,000,” Thorn situates the downgrade squarely in the context of a “major, multi-week selloff,” writing that “Bitcoin is trading below $100k for the first time since late June, with other cryptos faring worse.” Thorn stresses that the shift is cyclical rather than existential, stating plainly: “While bitcoin’s structural investment case remains strong, cyclical dynamics have evolved.” The firm frames the current backdrop as a decisive turn in market microstructure: “Bitcoin has entered a new phase – what we call the ‘maturity era’ – in which institutional absorption, passive flows, and lower volatility dominate.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Crashes Below $99,000: Expert Breaks Down Why That regime change helps explain both the tempered year-end target and the altered cadence of price discovery that Galaxy now expects. As Thorn puts it, “If bitcoin can maintain the ~$100k level, we believe the almost three-year bull market will remain structurally intact, though the pace of future gains may be slower.” Short-term optimism is not abandoned: “Still, we think nearing prior all-time highs before year-end is a reasonable target for short-term bulls.” Reasons For The Bitcoin Downgrade The downgrade aggregates several identifiable drags, beginning with distribution patterns across the holder base and the market’s capacity to absorb them. Galaxy writes: “Significant coin transfers from old holders to ETFs and new institutional buyers signal maturity, not weakness, but have presented headwinds.” This redistribution—whales handing supply to passive and institutional channels—may strengthen long-term ownership but has, in Galaxy’s telling, blunted near-term momentum. Positioning and leverage are the second leg of the argument. Thorn flags the “significant leverage wipeout from Oct. 10” and adds that it “continues to dent market liquidity and confidence.” The October flush sits at the center of Galaxy’s cyclical reassessment: forced de-risking weakened order-book depth just as large-holder distribution accelerated, leaving price vulnerable into the latest drawdown. A third component is the rotation of capital and narrative attention into other trades. Galaxy is explicit that “Bitcoin started the year as the hottest investment narrative, but AI, hyperscalers, gold, and the Magnificent 7 have absorbed capital and attention that might otherwise flow into BTC.” That diversion extends into crypto-adjacent plumbing as well: “Rapid stablecoin growth has redirected venture and equity interest into fintech and payments infrastructure.” The net effect, according to the note, has been a drag on incremental demand for direct BTC exposure and a tougher funding environment for pure-play Bitcoin vehicles. Retail participation, which defined prior peaks, is notably absent at sustained scale, and when it surfaces it tends to be flighty. Thorn writes: “Retail never fully returned at scale post-2021; when it did, the memecoin mania fostered short-termism that is not conducive to understanding and adopting bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.” Without sustained retail sponsorship, Galaxy expects ETF and institutional flows to “define BTCUSD behavior,” adding that “Passive Flows Dominate… lowering volatility and moderating cycles.” This, again, is part of the “maturity era” thesis rather than a repudiation of Bitcoin’s core investment case. Related Reading: ‘Bitcoin $100K Break Was Emotional’ – On-Chain Data Shows No Structural Damage Policy timing features as a missing catalyst rather than a negative shock. The note observes that “Despite positive rhetoric, no government bitcoin purchases have been announced. In general, the US government has been very quiet on the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR).” Galaxy does not ascribe immediate downside to the absence, but it removes a bullish tail event that some investors had hoped would materialize this year. Corporate treasuries and listed “Bitcoin-as-reserve” plays also receive a recalibration. Galaxy argues that the next iteration will demand business fundamentals rather than balance-sheet optics alone: “BTCTC Phase 2: The next wave of bitcoin treasury companies will mostly need revenue generation and operating businesses beyond reserve accumulation to differentiate themselves and thrive.” The firm also points to “poor performance of BTC treasury companies” as part of the year’s defining headwinds. Taken together, the factors map to a post-$100k market defined less by reflexive retail surges and more by methodical institutional accumulation. Galaxy calls it the “Post-$100k Regime,” in which “Bitcoin’s ascendance above six figures earlier this year marked the transition from early-era speculation to mature, institutionalized markets.” The conclusion threads the needle between structural conviction and cyclical prudence: “As a result of this market performance, and other factors, we are revising our 2025 year-end bullish bitcoin target from $185,000 to $120,000.” At press time, BTC traded at $103,093. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The current Bitcoin price crash is being driven by major sell-offs from large whales as they offload massive early BTC holdings. In addition to this, though, there are also chart formations that suggest that the Bitcoin price crash is only in its beginning stages. This comes after the cryptocurrency closed the month of October in the red for the first time in seven years, setting a precedent for a likely bearish close to the year. Higher Low Trendline Needs To Hold The current Bitcoin price downtrend began after the cryptocurrency hit a new all-time high back in August. The rejection at $126,000 created the cascade of bearish pressure that has now plagued the market, causing major losses to altcoins as a result. But even with the price already crashing by a significant margin since then, it is likely that the decline is not yet over. Related Reading: Analyst’s Full Market Breakdown Shows Why Bitcoin Price Is Headed For $120,000 Crypto analyst TradingShot highlights the current trend as being similar to what was seen back in January-February 2025, where a fractal formed after the Bitcoin price broke below its higher lows trendline. Presently, the Bitcoin price chart is following a higher low trendline formed after the infamous October 10 flash crash. As the analyst explains, this trendline needs to hold for a recovery to take place. In the event that the trendline does break, then the Bitcoin price could be in trouble, similar to what was seen at the start of the year. A rejection from this level would inevitably lead to a double-digit crash. If the crash sticks to the same fractal seen in January-February, then the analyst predicts that a 32% decline could be in the works. This would put it on the 2.0 Fibonacci Extension level, and such a crash could mean a decline to as low as $87,000 before support is established again. What A Bearish October Means For The Bitcoin Price Interestingly, historical performance also supports the crypto analyst’s theory that a double-digit crash could be in the works for the Bitcoin price. This has to do with the performance in October and what the trend says could happen in the month of November as a result. Related Reading: Dogecoin Volume Spike To $2 Billion Might Be Bearish, Here’s Why Whenever the Bitcoin price has closed October in the red, the subsequent month of November has always ended weakly as well. The last time that Bitcoin saw a red October close was back in 2018, and what followed was a 36.4% crash in November. Given this, it is likely that the Bitcoin price does follow this trend, especially with major sell-offs from BTC whales. Naturally, a double-digit crash would mean that the Bitcoin price will crash below $100,000 for the first time in four months. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Despite a slight recovery in cryptocurrency prices on Wednesday, experts remain divided on the future direction of Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and Solana (SOL). The market is at a crossroads, with some analysts anticipating a deeper correction, while others see the potential for a renewed recovery. iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF Hits 52-Week Low  According to a report from Barron’s, all three cryptocurrencies have attracted attention from major exchange-traded fund (ETF) issuers and President Trump’s administration, spurring hopes that increased institutional adoption could help stabilize volatility.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Falls Under $100,000: Elliott Wave Analysis Forecasts Decline To $70,000 The iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF is currently trading more than 20% below its recent 52-week high, which was reached less than a month ago. This peak coincided with the formation of a bearish evening star pattern, and the ETF experienced a notable decline of 3% on October 7.  The drop below the $70 mark has added to the bearish sentiment, with the ETF declining in three of the last four weeks, closing within the lower half of its trading range.  This week alone has seen an 8% drop, and the ETF recently undercut its 200-day simple moving average, marking a steep 5.5% decline—the largest single-day drop since April 7.  For investors to regain confidence, analysts assert that it is crucial for the ETF to hold near current levels and reclaim the 21-day exponential moving average (EMA), a key indicator of bullish momentum. Historically, recoveries have taken about six sessions, as seen back in April. Ethereum ETF Faces 17% Weekly Decline Ethereum, represented through the Grayscale Ethereum Trust ETF, has experienced a more pronounced decline, now down 34% from its annual peak and showing a negative year-to-date performance of 5%. This week alone, the ETF has dropped 17%, roughly double the decline seen in the Bitcoin Trust ETF.  However, the sharp pullback follows a significant increase of over 220% from early April to late August, making the current retreat appear both prudent and necessary.  Notably, the fund has not yet pierced its 200-day simple moving average, having touched it recently while retesting a breakout above a bullish inverse head-and-shoulders pattern.  The behavior of the ETF around this critical moving average in the coming week will be crucial; if stability can be achieved, it may present an attractive buying opportunity. After facing resistance at the $40 level on August 22, recent price action could be forming a double-bottom base, provided that the recent lows hold. Heightened Concerns For Solana Solana’s performance has been the most concerning, with its ETF plummeting 41% from its most recent 52-week high set in September. This heightened volatility may reflect the asset’s relative newness, as it began trading only in April.  Related Reading: Ethereum Price Needs To Reclaim This Key Level To Prevent Drop To $1,700 The Solana ETF peaked on September 18 and has since formed a bearish island reversal pattern. Over the past seven weeks, it has fallen in five of those, with three weeks recording double-digit declines.  This week alone, the ETF has dropped another 19% through just two trading sessions. On the daily chart, a break below the bearish head-and-shoulders pivot at $19 raises concerns of a potential measured move down to $12. Ultimately, the report suggests that a potential recovery for the trio would imply further inflows into these exchange-traded funds. This would also indicate a new wave of bullish sentiment returning to the market.  At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $104,190, marking a 3% surge over the past 24 hours. During the same time frame, ETH and SOL also recorded gains of 5% and 4%, respectively.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The crypto market looks beaten down again, but one veteran investor says that may be the exact signal to stay calm. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Grip Holds — But Signs Of Weakness Are Piling Up: Analyst Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan believes Bitcoin’s deep sell-off — now dragging prices below $102,000 for the first time since the last five months — is more about panic than fundamentals. Retail Sentiment At ‘Max Desperation’ Hougan told CNBC this week that small traders are hitting a breaking point. “It’s almost a tale of two markets,” he said, describing what he sees as “max desperation” among retail investors after months of heavy losses and leverage blowouts. He called the mood the most depressed he’s ever witnessed in crypto. For him, that level of hopelessness might be the final stage before the market finds its footing again. Institutional Flows Continue To Matter While smaller traders are backing off, larger investors appear to be sticking around. According to reports, financial advisors and institutional funds are still adding to positions through Bitcoin ETFs such as iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC), and Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC). The weekly inflows have slowed since the middle of the year, but they remain positive — a sign, Hougan says, that big money hasn’t lost faith. Hougan argues that this split between retail panic and institutional confidence could shape how the market recovers. “When I talk to advisors and institutions,” he said, “they’re still excited to allocate to an asset class that, if you zoom out, is delivering strong returns over the past year.” Solana Staking Interest And ETF Activity The growing influence of crypto funds goes beyond Bitcoin. Hougan said Bitwise’s new Solana Staking ETF (BSOL) pulled in more than $400 million in its first week before dropping nearly 20% since launching on Oct. 28. Even so, he sees strong appetite for professionally managed crypto exposure among investors who prefer structured products over direct trading. Related Reading: ‘Good News’ Finally Arrives For SHIB Army As Team Unveils New Update Not everyone agrees on how fast a rebound might come. Strategy CEO Michael Saylor recently predicted Bitcoin could hit $150,000 by year end — a call Hougan considers bold but not impossible. He said a move toward $125,000 or even $130,000 is achievable if selling pressure keeps fading and demand from institutions grows. For now, the market still feels fragile. Hougan admits there could be more downside before prices turn around, but he thinks the end of the sell-off is close. Retail sentiment may be collapsing, yet institutional optimism is holding firm — and that, he says, could be the fuel for Bitcoin’s next rally. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin price is struggling below $105,000. BTC could continue to move down if it stays below the $104,200 resistance. Bitcoin started a fresh decline below the $104,000 support. The price is trading below $104,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $103,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it fails to surpass the $105,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Faces Resistance Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $105,000 support level and started a fresh decline. BTC dipped below $103,500 and $102,000 to enter a bearish zone. The decline was such that the price even spiked below the $100,000 support. A low was formed at $98,900 and the price recently started a recovery wave. There was a move above the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $111,000 swing high to the $98,900 low. Besides, there was a break above a bearish trend line with resistance at $103,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. However, the bears remained active near $104,000. Bitcoin is now trading below $104,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the bulls attempt another recovery wave, the price could face resistance near the $103,500 level. The first key resistance is near the $104,000 level. The next resistance could be $105,000 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $111,000 swing high to the $98,900 low. A close above the $105,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $106,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $107,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $108,500 and $108,800. Another Decline In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $104,000 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support is near the $102,150 level. The first major support is near the $100,500 level. The next support is now near the $100,000 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $98,800 support in the near term. The main support sits at $97,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $102,150, followed by $100,500. Major Resistance Levels – $103,500 and $104,000.

Data shows sentiment around Bitcoin and Ethereum has plummeted on social media, but XRP and other altcoins are just observing apathy. Social Media Traders Have Turned Bearish On Bitcoin & Ethereum In a new insight post, on-chain analytics firm Santiment has talked about how sentiment around cryptocurrencies has changed on social media following the latest market crash. The indicator of relevance here is the “Positive/Negative Sentiment,” which tells us how bullish sentiment compares against the bearish one on the major social media platforms. Related Reading: Altcoin Winter Here? Ethereum, Solana Activity Plunges The metric works by going through social media posts/messages/threads to separate them into positive and negative using a machine-learning model. Once the posts have been divided, it counts up the number in each category and takes the ratio between them. First, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Positive/Negative Sentiment for Bitcoin over the last few months: As shown in the graph above, Bitcoin Positive/Negative Sentiment has recently plunged, suggesting bearish sentiment has risen on social media platforms. The current value of the indicator is the third lowest for the past six months. Interestingly, the two instances with lower levels coincided with local bottoms for the cryptocurrency. This pattern of the asset going against the crowd opinion has actually been witnessed regularly throughout its history. Considering this, the shift to a negative sentiment on social media may turn out to be a bullish signal for the BTC price. Bitcoin isn’t the only cryptocurrency that’s witnessing a surge in bearish sentiment right now. As Santiment has pointed out, Ethereum has also seen a similar trend in the Positive/Negative Sentiment. In fact, the negative comments have been even more intense for Ethereum, as the current value is the second lowest for the last six months. “Only the flash crash back on October 10th, when Trump temporarily threatened 100% tariffs on China, saw a higher level of bearish vs. bullish comments,” noted the analytics firm. Interestingly, while Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen this development, most other assets in the sector are showing a different trend. Below is a chart that shows how the Positive/Negative Sentiment currently looks for XRP, the coin ranked fourth by market cap. From the graph, it’s apparent that the indicator is sitting at a neutral level for XRP, implying social media users aren’t leaning one way or the other, despite the volatility. Related Reading: CryptoQuant Head Reveals Reason Behind Bearish Bitcoin Trend “Unlike the top two marketcaps in crypto, XRP is showing what most other altcoins are showing… a surprising level of disinterest,” said Santiment. “It’s clear that most of retail has shifted their focus to just talking about BTC (and ETH, to a slightly lesser extent).” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $102,600, down more than 9% over the last week. The trend in the price of the coin over the last five days | Source: BTCUSDT on TradingView Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has officially lost its footing below the critical $100,000 level, rattling markets and fueling a wave of fear-driven selling. The move comes after a sharp surge in bearish sentiment, with CryptoQuant data indicating that Bitcoin’s latest decline is largely psychological rather than fundamentally driven. Related Reading: Anti-CZ Whale Scores Nearly $100M On ASTER And Altcoin Shorts As Market Sells Off Over the past several days, the market has shifted from confidence to panic at remarkable speed. The Fear & Greed Index plunged to 21 — deep in fear territory — just days after BTC briefly tapped $107K. Bullish narratives calling for a $150K–$200K breakout have vanished from social platforms, replaced by anxiety, disbelief, and calls for deeper downside. Google search trends for Bitcoin interest cooled significantly after October highs, mirroring weakening retail enthusiasm. Meanwhile, altcoin sentiment collapsed to extreme lows, hitting -81 as traders capitulated across the board. This emotional swing is not unusual for crypto. With a relatively small market structure and large speculative participation, crypto assets remain highly sensitive to sentiment shocks. In many cases, price movements are influenced more by crowd psychology than by on-chain fundamentals. While the sell-off has been intense, analysts note that network data remains resilient — raising the question of whether panic, rather than macro reality, is driving this correction. On-Chain Data Shows Strength Beneath the Sell-Off Despite Bitcoin’s sharp drop below $100K, on-chain data paints a very different picture beneath the surface. According to a CryptoQuant report by XWIN Research Japan, there is no evidence of structural weakness or network deterioration — only a sentiment-driven correction. Key network metrics remain solid. Exchange withdrawals have surged, suggesting investors are moving BTC into self-custody rather than rushing to exit the market. Meanwhile, UTXOs in loss have risen to roughly 12%, signaling discomfort — but still far from levels associated with true capitulation phases in past cycles. This indicates that most market participants remain positioned for longer-term upside. At the protocol level, Bitcoin continues to show strength. Hashrate remains near all-time highs at approximately 1.1 ZH/s, reinforcing network security and miner confidence. Whale ratio has trended lower, pointing to reduced sell-side pressure from large holders. Liquidity dynamics also support a potential rebound. Over $10.7B in stablecoins has recently flowed into Binance, providing substantial dry powder for future accumulation. Realized cap data shows long-term holders trimming some profits, but importantly, incoming demand continues to absorb supply. Overall, the pullback appears sentiment-driven rather than fundamental. On-chain signals suggest the broader uptrend remains intact — making this volatility a test of conviction, not the start of a structural reversal. Related Reading: Balancer Hacker Now Converting Loot to Ethereum: Stolen Funds Surge To $116.6M Key Support Under Pressure, Short-Term Trend Weakens Bitcoin continues to trade under heavy pressure following its breakdown from the $110,000 range, slipping below the psychological $100,000 level before stabilizing near current support around $101,800. The 4-hour chart shows a clear transition into a lower-highs, lower-lows structure, confirming short-term bearish momentum. Moving averages reinforce this weakness: price is trading below the 50-, 100-, and 200-period moving averages, signaling that bears remain in control. The sharp impulse move down was met with a spike in volume, suggesting panic-driven selling rather than a slow, distribution-based decline. Since then, volume has normalized as price attempts to consolidate above the $100,000 region. This zone now serves as a pivotal demand area — a break below it could expose deeper downside toward $95,000–$98,000, where stronger historical liquidity sits. Related Reading: Whale Piles Into ASTER Shorts After CZ’s Comment – $52.8M On the Line Despite the selloff, Bitcoin is showing early signs of stabilization. The wick below $100K indicates buyers stepped in aggressively at that level, preventing further liquidation cascades. However, bulls need to reclaim the $105,000–$107,000 band to neutralize short-term downside pressure and signal a potential recovery. For now, the trend remains fragile as market sentiment cools and traders reassess positioning. Price stability above $100K is critical — losing this range could trigger another wave of forced selling, while defending it may set the stage for a relief bounce. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

After years of relentless buying, Strategy Inc., the digital-asset treasury firm led by Michael Saylor, has quietly eased its pace of Bitcoin accumulation. In recent weeks, company filings have shown that its BTC purchases have fallen to only a few hundred coins, representing a sharp slowdown for the largest corporate holder of the flagship cryptocurrency. […]
The post How Saylor and Strategy plan to kickstart Bitcoin buying internationally appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Bitcoin endured one of its sharpest selloffs of the year on Tuesday, knifing below the six-figure threshold and printing lows around the $99,000 area on major composites before rebounding. At press time, bitcoin (BTC) hovered near $101,700 after an intraday trough just above $99,000 on widely used benchmarks, marking a fall of roughly 6% day-over-day and the lowest print since June. The slide came as US equities limped into mid-week, with the Nasdaq up 20.9% year-to-date and the S&P 500 up 15.1% as of Tuesday’s close—gains that underscore how much bitcoin has lagged other risk assets during long stretches of 2025. That divergence, together with a growing body of ETF-flow data showing several straight sessions of net outflows from US spot bitcoin funds into early November, provided the macro backdrop for a fragile crypto tape. Independent tallies from Farside/SoSoValue and multiple outlets point to a roughly $1.3–$1.4 billion cumulative bleed over four trading days into November 3–4, led by BlackRock’s IBIT. Why Is Bitcoin Price Down? Into that context, Joe Consorti—Head of Growth at Horizon (Theya, YC)—argues the selloff is less a loss of conviction than a structural handoff of supply. In a video analysis posted late November 4 US time, he framed the day’s move as “one of its roughest days of the year, down more than 6 percent, falling to $99,000 for the first time since June,” adding that while equities would call that “the start of a bear market… for Bitcoin, though, this is typical of a bull market drawdown.” He noted that “we’ve already weathered two separate 30 percent drawdowns during this bull run,” and characterized the present action as “a transfer of Bitcoin’s ownership base from the old guard to the new guard.” Related Reading: CryptoQuant Head Reveals Reason Behind Bearish Bitcoin Trend Consorti anchored his thesis to a now-viral framework from macro investor Jordi Visser: bitcoin’s “silent IPO.” In Visser’s Substack essay—shared widely since the weekend—he posits that 2025’s rangebound price belies an orderly, IPO-like distribution as early-era holders access the deepest liquidity the asset has ever had through ETFs, institutional custodians and corporate balance sheets. “Early-stage investors… need liquidity. They need an exit. They need to diversify,” Visser wrote, arguing that methodical selling “results [in] a sideways grind that drives everyone crazy.” Consorti adopted the frame bluntly: “This isn’t panic selling, it’s the natural evolution of an asset that’s reached maturity… a transfer of ownership from concentrated hands to distributed ones.” Evidence for that churn has been visible on-chain. Multiple instances of Satoshi-era wallets and miner addresses reanimating this quarter—some after 14 years—have been documented, including July’s duo of 10,000-BTC wallets and late-October movement from a 4,000-BTC miner address. While not dispositive that coins are being market-sold, the pattern is consistent with supply redistributing from early concentrates to broader, regulated channels. Technically, Consorti cast the drop as part of “digestion,” not exhaustion. “The RSI tells us Bitcoin is at its most oversold level since April, when the last leg of the bull run began. Every drawdown this cycle, 30%, 35%, and now 20%, has built support rather than destroyed it.” He added a key conditional: “If we spend too much time below $100,000, that could suggest the distribution isn’t done… perhaps we’re in for a bull-market reversal into a bear market.” Macro, however, is intruding. The Federal Reserve cut rates by 25 bps on October 29 to a 3.75%–4.00% target range, but Chair Jerome Powell carefully pushed back on the idea of an automatic December cut, citing “strongly differing views” inside the FOMC and a “data fog” from the ongoing government shutdown. Markets promptly tempered their odds for further near-term easing. Consorti’s warning that bitcoin “is extremely correlated” to risk-asset drawdowns therefore looms large: if equities lurch meaningfully lower or funding stress reappears, crypto will feel it. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run: Over Or Just Paused? CryptoQuant CEO Presents The Data If Visser’s “silent IPO” is right, ETFs are both symptom and salve. They have delivered the two-sided depth to absorb legacy supply but also introduced a new, faster-moving cohort whose redemptions can amplify downdrafts. That dynamic showed up again this week in the four-day string of net outflows concentrated in IBIT, even as longer-term assets under management remain enormous by historical standards. Consorti’s conclusion was starkly patient, not euphoric. “For every seller looking to liquidate their position, there’s a new participant stepping in for the long haul… It’s slow, it’s uneven, and it’s psychologically draining, but once it’s finished, it unlocks the next leg higher. Because the marginal seller is gone, and what’s left is a base of holders who don’t need to sell.” Whether Tuesday’s pierce of the six-figure floor proves the climactic flush—or merely another chapter in a months-long ownership transfer—will hinge on how quickly price reclaims and bases above $100,000, how ETF flows stabilize, and whether the Fed’s path from here restores risk appetite or starves it. For now, the most important story in bitcoin may be happening under the surface, not on the chart. At press time, BTC traded at $101,865. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin dominance sits at 60% and has been testing a vital long-run support line. According to market veteran Michaël van de Poppe, that support — the 20-month MA, near 59% — is the signal traders should watch. Related Reading: ‘Good News’ Finally Arrives For SHIB Army As Team Unveils New Update He warned that a confirmed break under that level could flip the market’s favor toward altcoins. Short moves can happen. Big shifts follow. Bitcoin Dominance At A Crossroads Based on reports and chart reads, The 20-month MA has been touched several times recently. In September, Bitcoin dominance briefly slipped below 59% before bouncing back, a move that shows the index is being pushed and probed. Van de Poppe drew a parallel to late 2019, when a long run above that moving average eventually gave way and set the stage for a long altcoin run. He told followers it could be “party time” if the line is broken with conviction. The #Bitcoin dominance is still trending upwards, but on edge to be breaking south. Why? It’s mimicking Q4 2019. I’d want to see a break beneath the 20-Monthly MA. If that happens, that’s party time. pic.twitter.com/m21WnBhKuj — Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) November 4, 2025 Traders say this test matters because it is not just a small tug of war. It is a structural test that could change where money flows next. Momentum would likely shift. Market behavior could become more favorable to smaller coins. Historical Echoes From 2019 Back In September 2019, Bitcoin dominance peaked at 73% before the index began a steady slide. It tested the long moving average by February 2020, then in mid-2020 the structure changed and the drop continued until dominance hit 39% by December 2021. Reports point to that period as when many altcoins outperformed Bitcoin and saw large gains. Some analysts believe a repeat pattern is possible if the same technical threshold fails. Analyst Steve, from Crypto Crew University, flagged comparable chart shapes and resistance points that came before the major altcoin rallies of 2017 and 2021. He suggested the pattern might reappear, perhaps around 2026, meaning an altcoin upswing could arrive later rather than sooner. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Be This Week’s Big Story As Saylor Teases Fresh Buy What Traders Are Watching Several clear markers are being followed. The 20-month MA at 59.29% is one. A sustained close below that level would be the clearest technical trigger. Volume trends and how quickly dominance moves after a break will be watched closely. In addition, analysts will watch whether major Bitcoin flows — such as ETF activity, exchange balances, or large holder moves — change, because those can speed up or slow down an altcoin response. Featured image from Stronger by Science, chart from TradingView

In the last few weeks, the Ethereum price has performed poorly, thanks to the bearish pressure triggered by the Bitcoin price decline. After losing support above $4,000, the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap is now showing more signs of a breakdown that could trigger a spiral. Multiple analysts have already shared where they see the Ethereum price going, and we take a look at two that look at both ends of the spectrum. A Recovery And Then A Crash Crypto analyst Melikatrader highlighted an important structure that the Ethereum price has formed recently, and that is a clear structure of recovery. This comes after the cryptocurrency completed a liquidity sweep around $3,700, which is referred to as a “Hunting.” Related Reading: Head And Shoulders Pattern Says Bitcoin Price Is Headed Below $100,000 Now, with the liquidity sweep completed at this level, the analyst believes that this creates a potential base that could see the Ethereum price correct upwards. Amid this, the altcoin has also seen some consolidation between $3,700 and $3,800, making this range an important area of interest. If bulls are able to claim and hold this level, then it could put Ethereum on the path of another uptrend. It would put an end to the accumulation trend and kickstart another bullish run. Such a run would send the Ethereum price into the next supply zone, which lies at $4,080-$4,180, before seeing any major downward correction. Despite expecting the price to climb, the crypto analyst also highlights the fact that Ethereum is still flashing a bearish market structure. With the ascending trendline on the move, the price is expected to hit resistance around $4,100. If bears are able to successfully reject the price from this level, then the Ethereum price is expected to crash back below $4,000. Analyst Calls The Top For Ethereum Price While many in the space believe the current downtrend is only temporary, crypto analyst CRYPTO Damus believes that this could actually be the cycle top. In the post on X, he compares the current trend to that of the 2018 and 2021 cycle tops using the weekly chart. Related Reading: Here’s What Happens To The Dogecoin Price After The Consolidation Phase Ends Damus points out that there are similarities between the previous cycle tops and that the Ethereum price is currently following a similar playbook. This comes after consistent green candles, followed by red candles on the weekly chart, ending in a bear market. The analyst explains that it is possible that this time could be different, given the deviations in the market cycles so far. However, if it is the same trend from the last two bull cycles, that would mean that the bull run is over for Ethereum, and investors should brace for a crash. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin price is gaining bearish pace below $103,500. BTC could continue to move down if it stays below the $103,500 resistance. Bitcoin started a fresh decline below the $105,000 support. The price is trading below $104,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. There is a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $103,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might continue to move down if it settles below the $100,000 zone. Bitcoin Price Dips Again Bitcoin price failed to stay above the $105,500 support level and started a fresh decline. BTC dipped below $104,000 and $103,500 to enter a bearish zone. The decline was such that the price even spiked below the $100,000 support. A low was formed at $98,900 and the price is now consolidating losses near the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $111,000 swing high to the $98,900 low. Bitcoin is now trading below $104,000 and the 100 hourly Simple moving average. If the bulls attempt a recovery wave, the price could face resistance near the $102,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $103,500 level. There is also a bearish trend line forming with resistance at $103,500 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The next resistance could be $105,000 and the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $111,000 swing high to the $98,900 low. A close above the $105,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $106,400 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $107,500 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $108,500 and $108,800. More Losses In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $103,500 resistance zone, it could continue to move down. Immediate support is near the $100,200 level. The first major support is near the $100,000 level. The next support is now near the $98,800 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $96,200 support in the near term. The main support sits at $95,500, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $100,200, followed by $100,000. Major Resistance Levels – $103,500 and $105,000.

After failing to close the week above a crucial level, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to hold $100,000 as support, leading some analysts to suggest that this is the make-or-break moment for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Loses Key Support Amid 8% Drop, Risks Major Correction To This Level Bitcoin Plunges To Physiological Barrier On Tuesday, Bitcoin saw a 9% drop from its weekly opening, dropping to the $100,000 area for the first time in months. The flagship crypto has been trading above $105,000 since late June, hovering between $108,000-$120,000 over the past four months. During the early October correction, BTC’s price briefly deviated below these crucial levels, hitting a three-month low of $102,000 before recovering. Since then, the cryptocurrency has struggled to reclaim the mid-zone of its local range, falling to the $106,000-$108,000 area multiple times in the daily timeframe. As the price retested the $100,000 level, Sjuul from AltCryptoGems noted that Bitcoin has now broken below its 10th of October low, which was “the last major level before the $98K low from the Middle Eastern war fud back in June.” Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted that BTC has two massive liquidity clusters on the longer timeframes. Per the chart, the first cluster sits around the $90,000 level, which also coincides with an open CME Gap from Q2. Meanwhile, the second cluster sits around the all-time high area at $126,000. “Given that the market is looking weak now, a dump to fill the CME gap before reversal could happen,” the market watcher warned. However, Ali Martinez suggested that a 5%-11% rebound from the current area is possible. The chart shows that Bitcoin has been trading between $101,300-$124,000 price range since May, bouncing from the lower boundary each time it was retested. If BTC holds this area, it could surge to at least $106,500 or $112,000, the analyst asserted. BTC Retests 50-Week EMA Rekt Capital highlighted that BTC had reached the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The analyst explained that after closing below the 21-week EMA, Bitcoin was deviating below its range lows for the fifth consecutive week. The 21-week EMA has served as crucial support during pullbacks since late Q2. However, it was lost amid the recent market volatility. Last week, multiple analysts warned that closing above this level was crucial to turn it back into support and prevent a larger pullback. Per the Tuesday post, the 50-week EMA, sitting around the $100,000 level, “would probably only get tagged on confirmed breakdown from $108k,” meaning that the flagship crypto will need to close the week above this level to maintain its current price range. Similarly, Crypto Bullet pointed out that the 50-week MA retest was “the moment of truth” for BTC. Notably, the cryptocurrency has retested this indicator three times this cycle, marking the bottom of each corrective phase and the start of a new rally to a new all-time high (ATH). Related Reading: Is Crypto ‘Boring’ Now? Bitwise CEO Says The Market Is Changing The market watcher warned that losing this level would mean “it’s lights out” for the flagship cryptocurrency. However, a rebound from this area could set the stage for a price recovery and a potential bullish rally in late Q4. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $100,356, a 6% decline in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s price continues to face mounting pressure as it hovers near key support levels. With sellers pushing toward the $102,000 zone, BTC is now at a moment that may mark the final washout before a major rebound. The coming days could be decisive in determining whether Bitcoin finds its footing or continues its decline. Bitcoin Faces Pressure Below $108,000 As Bears Regain Control Crypto analyst Crypto Candy shared insights into Bitcoin’s latest price action, noting that the flagship cryptocurrency tried to hold the $107,000–$108,000 support zone but ultimately failed to do so, closing below that level. This development signals a potential shift in market dynamics, as the $107,000–$108,000 zone may now act as a strong resistance area.  Related Reading: Head And Shoulders Pattern Says Bitcoin Price Is Headed Below $100,000 Crypto Candy further explained that if the downward momentum continues, Bitcoin could retrace deeper toward the $99,000–$101,000 range, an area viewed as a critical support zone where fresh buying interest might emerge. A dip into this range could also help clear out weak positions and create healthier conditions for a long-term rebound. However, the analyst added that if Bitcoin manages to reclaim and hold above the $107,000–$108,000 zone, it would signal that bullish strength is returning to the market. Such a breakout could restore confidence among investors, paving the way for renewed upward momentum and possibly another push toward higher targets.  $102,000: The Ideal Flush Zone Before The Next Big Move In his latest BTC daily update, Super฿ro emphasized the critical role of the $102,000 support zone, describing it as an ideal area for the market to flush out remaining leveraged long positions. This kind of shakeout is often necessary to clear weak hands and set the stage for a more sustainable bullish continuation. Related Reading: Bitcoin At A ‘Do-Or-Die’ Level As Cycle Faces First Real Test: Analyst Super฿ro further noted that once this cleanup phase concludes, Bitcoin could see a sharp rebound, primarily fueled by a short squeeze from traders caught on the wrong side of the market. As shorts begin to close their positions, buying pressure could intensify, creating a rapid upward move that reclaims lost levels.  That said, the crypto analyst has warned that a break below the $101,000 level would not be ideal, as it might signal that market weakness is deeper than anticipated. Still, he maintains confidence in the broader picture, highlighting that high-timeframe (HTF) indicators remain supportive of a potential rebound. Presently, the price of BTC is hovering around $104,000, indicating a more than 3% decline over the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, its trading volume has picked up pace, rising by over 79% in the same time frame. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin might be currently trending downwards, but a full fundamental breakdown shows it is ready to return to $120,000, and it is only a matter of time.  According to an extensive fundamental analysis shared by Mr. Wall Street on X, the recent months of price stagnation and sudden drops are part of a larger accumulation phase dominated by institutional players. The overall setup, he argued, points clearly to Bitcoin’s eventual climb back above $120,000. Institutional Accumulation And Controlled Bitcoin Price Range The analyst’s first point is how Bitcoin has been trading within a 120-day range, oscillating between $107,000 and $123,000 to form what is a controlled consolidation range by institutions intended to push out weak retail investors. Mr. Wall Street noted that Bitcoin’s structure remains fundamentally bullish despite the prolonged sideways movement.  Related Reading: Donald Trump Makes Nice With China, But Why Are The Bitcoin And Ethereum Prices Still Crashing? Each attempt to break out above $120,000 strongly or below the $107,000 support has failed, a sign that large institutions are actively controlling liquidity within this narrow band. Every crash within this period, including the one caused by the Binance sell-off and Trump’s tariff war with China, was met by strong institutional bids near the $107,000 zone, even when Bitcoin went on a flash crash to $101,000.  Therefore, there is no technical or structural weakness that invalidates the bullish thesis. The imbalance to the upside, he added, is sufficient to push Bitcoin back to trading in the $120,000 and $123,000 range, which is the Value Area High. Mr. Wall Street also tied Bitcoin’s coming surge to changes within the Federal Reserve’s policies. He pointed out that despite claiming to end quantitative tightening, the Fed has quietly injected billions into the banking system through repo operations and mortgage-backed securities purchases. He highlighted a single Friday where $50.35 billion entered the system. According to him, this liquidity will ultimately find its way into risk assets, including Bitcoin, in a pattern similar to the 2019 monetary response that preceded crypto’s 2020 and 2021 bull run. Although he warned that a fabricated crash could precede the next liquidity wave, this will only strengthen Bitcoin’s long-term position for another move to $120,000 and possibly higher. Gold And Bitcoin In The Battle For The Real Store Of Value Mr. Wall Street also called attention to the psychological side of the current cycle, which has been highlighted by some investors gravitating towards gold. He argued that retail investors are being pushed to gold through manipulated narratives of stagflation and economic fear, while institutions quietly buy Bitcoin. “What’s ironic is that the same logic that drives people to buy gold should be making them buy Bitcoin instead,” he said.  Related Reading: Analyst Reveals What Traders Are Missing After The Bitcoin Price Spike To $116,000 The ongoing gold hype is to distract the public while institutions accumulate Bitcoin at discount levels. Once retail participants exit the crypto market entirely, then there is going to be a move upward that redefines Bitcoin’s price level.  As he concluded, the boring sideways phase is nearing its end, and the next aggressive move, one that could carry Bitcoin back above $120,000, is only a matter of time. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $104,200. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

CryptoQuant’s research head has pointed out how demand to absorb Bitcoin at higher prices has been low recently, potentially explaining the asset’s decline. Bitcoin Apparent Demand Metric Has Turned Red Recently In a new post on X, Julio Moreno, head of research at on-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant, has looked at recent BTC market dynamics from a different angle. “Instead of looking at Bitcoin long-term holder distribution/spending, I like to look at the other side of the trade,” noted Moreno. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Maps Out Dream Ethereum Scenario To $8,000 Long-term holders here refer to the BTC investors who have been holding onto their coins for a period longer than 155 days. This cohort is considered to include the high-conviction “HODLers” of the market, so distribution from them is often something on-chain analysts watch out for. As CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has highlighted in a separate X post, Bitcoin long-term holders have participated in a significant amount of selling during the past month. This isn’t the signal Moreno focuses on, however. Instead, the CryptoQuant head checks for whether there is enough demand coming in to absorb the supply that the long-term holders are selling at higher prices. An indicator that can be useful for tracking this is the Apparent Demand, which compares the difference between BTC’s production and changes in its long-term inventory. “Production” is the amount that miners are issuing on the network every day, while the “inventory” is the supply that has been inactive for over a year. Now, here is the chart shared by Moreno that shows the trend in the 30-day and 1-year versions of the Bitcoin Apparent Demand over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Apparent Demand has been red on the 30-day during the last few weeks, implying a negative short-term demand for the cryptocurrency. “Is there enough demand to absorb the supply at higher prices?” asked the analyst. “Since a few weeks ago the answer is no, and that is why we see prices declining.” The story is a bit different when it comes to the 1-year Apparent Demand, which has actually seen some growth recently, but the pace of its rise has been slow, and its value is still below the 90-day simple moving average (SMA). Related Reading: Bitcoin At Key Retest: Bounce Or $98,000 Next? The last time Bitcoin saw an extended phase of negative 30-day Apparent Demand was during the bearish phase in the first half of the year. It now remains to be seen whether something similar will follow this time as well, or if demand will bounce back. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $103,900, down 9% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

In the dynamic and often opaque world of Bitcoin trading, institutional traders are operating with a fundamentally different playbook. These players are actively hunting for low-volume areas and under-traded levels, seeing them as strategic advantages for maximizing profit. Why Institutions Avoid The Crowd And Target The Gaps Bitcoin’s institutional traders and big players are actively hunting low-volume areas. These zones are thinly traded areas, which shows that there are fewer resting orders, making it easier to fill massive positions with less slippage. In an X post, a crypto analyst known as Killa has stated that throughout this entire rally, players have hunted Low Volume Nodes (LVNs), or in simpler terms, the volume areas are lows every single time. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks Down Again — Bearish Momentum Intensifies Across Crypto Market The reason for this accumulation is that if the BTC price is stalling, volume is increasing, and BTC is unable to follow through with bullish momentum, it shows that 75% of the time, the market is preparing to retrace to lower areas of demand. This is simple basic supply and demand dynamics playing out. However, there has been a major increase in volume around these highs, coupled with the multiple sweeps of liquidity above them. Despite what might seem like bullish tariff catalysts, the market has failed to push higher. If this combination happens, it could be a sign of distribution rather than re-accumulation of the trend. Furthermore, if BTC can’t decisively reclaim the $114,000 monthly open, then the next logical target points downwards to the Volume Area Low (VAL) below $100,000. Should BTC push below $100,000 and manage to reclaim the VAL, then this will be a deviation into expansion, which is a reclaim of the range. On the other hand, if BTC is unable to reclaim the VAL after testing below $100,000, it would point to a bear market towards $50,000 to $60,000 range. October Leverage Bloodbath Is Still Echoing A popular crypto news source, CryptosRus, has mentioned that Bloomberg has dropped a report that the October liquidation shocks are still haunting crypto. Meanwhile, Bitcoin is back near $107,000, but the reason is not new Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD) or macro pressure, but because traders are still shaken from the October wipeout. Related Reading: Are Bitcoin Investors Back In Accumulation Mode? On-Chain Data Says ‘Possibly’ The liquidation flushed billions in leverage, which is the biggest clean-out this market has seen in years. This drained confidence and completely sidelined buyers who still haven’t stepped back into the arena with conviction. Bloomberg says that the October shock absolutely repelled new demand, even as global risk assets continue to rally. Presently, the fundamentals for BTC are actually fine, but the sentiment is shell-shocked. According to CryptorRus, this is not a weakness, but it’s a recovery mode. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

The crypto market has entered one of its steepest sell-offs in months, erasing over $90 billion in market value within just one hour and triggering more than $1.3 billion in liquidations as leveraged positions were wiped out across exchanges. Related Reading: Rare Chart Formation That Led To An 87% XRP Price Crash Has Resurfaced Bitcoin (BTC) plummeted below $105,000, extending a sharp correction that began late last week, while major altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH), Solana (SOL), and XRP followed suit with double-digit losses. BTC's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Fed’s Hawkish Stance Sparks Risk-Off Panic The latest crash stems largely from renewed Federal Reserve hawkishness that reignited fears across global risk markets. Despite cutting rates by 25 basis points in October, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that further rate cuts are not guaranteed, stressing that inflation remains “on the wrong path.” His remarks strengthened the U.S. dollar and sent shockwaves through speculative assets, including cryptocurrencies. Adding to the pressure, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) surged to over 100, its highest level since August. Analysts noted that the move triggered technical selling as Bitcoin lost its critical $110,000 and $106,000 support zones. Institutional investors began offloading positions through U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, amplifying the downtrend. Mass Liquidations Wipe Out Over 300,000 Traders According to data from CoinGlass, total liquidations exceeded $1.37 billion in 24 hours, with long positions accounting for nearly 90% of the total. Bitcoin led the way with over $396 million in liquidated assets, followed closely by Ethereum at $368 million. The largest single liquidation event occurred on HTX Exchange, where a $47.8 million BTC-USDT long position was closed out. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index has fallen to 21, deep in “Extreme Fear” territory. More than 327,000 traders have been wiped out in the past day, a figure reminiscent of the October 11 flash crash, when 1.6 million traders faced similar losses. Altcoins Bear the Brunt as Market Cap Sinks Altcoins faced heavier losses than Bitcoin amid thin liquidity and cascading sell orders. Solana (SOL) dropped below $160, down 8%, while Ethereum slipped 5% to $3,500. XRP and Cardano (ADA) also tumbled over 5.5%. The total crypto market cap has shrunk below $3.5 trillion, its lowest level since July. Related Reading: From Greed To Terror: Bitcoin’s Fall Below $104K Sparks Extreme Fear Market analysts see the correction as a “healthy reset” after months of aggressive rallies. However, if Bitcoin breaks below the $100,000 psychological support, experts warn of an additional 5–8% downside across the broader market. For now, traders are bracing for heightened volatility as the crypto storm intensifies. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin’s technical structure remains decisively negative and will stay that way “until” a key resistance level is reclaimed, according to veteran analyst Josh Olszewicz in his latest video published today. Pointing to the Ichimoku Cloud and a stack of trend signals, Olszewicz said, “Below the cloud we’re bearish, above we’re bullish. We are currently below… [and] fully bearish on price and the expectation is lower lows.” The fulcrum, in his view, is a reclaim of roughly $115,000. “I don’t really have anything bullish to say here at all until we’re back above $115,000 on BTC and $4,200 on ETH,” he said, adding that Ethereum’s setup is comparatively less negative—trading “in the cloud,” with what he still characterizes as “certainly not a long entry signal.” For Bitcoin, he flagged a confluence of bearish cues: a bearish Chikou span on the weekly, moving-average crosses to the downside, and head-and-shoulders patterns both at larger and smaller scales. While he acknowledged a possible “falling channel” and even a broader “megaphone” that could complicate pattern reads, Olszewicz underscored directional risk in the near term: “If I were to randomly wake up and see price at $103k, $102k, that would not surprise me here,” even warning that “it’s possible we flirt with… below $100,000.” The deterioration in derivatives premia underscores that message, he argued. “If you look at the basis on CME we are making multi-month lows here… you go to ETH [and it’s] also making significant lows. So there’s certainly no froth in this market based on premiums.” Spot flow doesn’t help either: “On BTC we’ve still got people sending hundreds of millions to exchanges seemingly every day… my guess is they are [selling] because you don’t send coins to an exchange for fun.” Macro Headwinds For Bitcoin Beyond crypto-native signals, Olszewicz tied the setup to a macro regime shift that has turned unhelpful at the margins. He highlighted a still-ongoing US government shutdown as a potential kink in liquidity transmission—“maybe when the government comes back… the pipes start moving again”—and warned of rising near-term volatility around a data drought: “We do have ADP employment on Wednesday… very, very closely paid attention to because there is a data drought on employment numbers.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run: Over Or Just Paused? CryptoQuant CEO Presents The Data Since last week’s FOMC, he noted, rate-cut odds tightened materially “after Powell mentioned a comment about the fog. Got to slow down on the fog, he says,” with risk assets reacting poorly: “Equities didn’t like that… crypto certainly didn’t like that.” He also flagged the inflation now-casting mix as a swing factor. “Trueflation [is] ticking higher consistently… you don’t want to be in this position where we are cutting into rising inflation,” he cautioned, while contrasting that with the Fed’s nowcast, which “doesn’t look as dire.” A CPI headline beginning with a ‘3’ would be problematic in his view: “I suspect if we do get a three handle on headline CPI, markets aren’t going to like that.” Under the hood, he pointed to falling gasoline and used-car prints and easing rents as disinflationary, but called out sticky components like insurance. Liquidity optics remain mixed: the reverse repo facility has seen periodic end-month spikes yet is “running on fumes,” and, crucially, the long-observed link between global liquidity gauges and BTC “has not reconnected in any regard since May, June, July.” Dollar strength is an additional pressure point. “The dollar continues to look good, continues to push higher… and this chart looks phenomenal… a real problem” for Bitcoin if that uptrend persists, he said. In classic cross-asset contrast, he described the 60/40 US bonds/equity mix as technically constructive—“above the cloud, bullish TK cross, bullish cloud”—and noted that risk proxies like high-yield credit are diverging from the S&P 500, which he reads as consistent with crypto’s underperformance: “With BTC struggling, you see riskier parts of the market also pulling back to a greater degree than equities.” Equities Need To Remain Strong In equities, he argued there is “nothing to short” on the major indices right now—“SPY… looks great,” with the Nasdaq and semis echoing the same message—creating an awkward asymmetry for BTC: “If Bitcoin can’t find its way when the SPY and the Q’s look like this, we’re certainly in trouble because if this does reverse, that’s going to take BTC with it almost certainly.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Poised For A Bullish November: Key Catalysts That Can’t Be Ignored On crypto-equity linkages, Olszewicz observed that miners have outperformed for reasons outside of Bitcoin’s fundamentals: “If you look at the Bitcoin miners, those have been bullish. Why? Because of AI and not because of Bitcoin… anybody following that story has done very well this year.” He extended the caution to other high-beta tech themes—quantum names “look very tired… more and more like a head and shoulders”—while acknowledging individual standouts like Palantir, which he said is “breaking out of its own cup and handle,” even if near-term price action was choppy after hours. The broader market psychology, in his view, is shaped by cycle age and wealth preservation. “A thousand days from the bottom, more and more people are just saying, okay, this is enough… if they’re rich, they want to stay that way… it makes some sense to take a little bit off the table.” Until the technicals change, he sees no reason to force trades: “Honestly, not much, probably just sit around and collect some cash. Wait for those A-plus setups to emerge.” The trigger for a regime shift is unambiguous in his framework. As he put it at the outset, “Below the cloud we’re bearish… not a bullish expectation.” The condition for flipping that view is equally clear: “Back above $115,000 on BTC and 4,200 on ETH,” or, in this headline terms, reclaim the level—or remain “fully bearish.” At press time, BTC traded at $103,634. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The cryptocurrency market has been struck by another wave of red candles, plunging 4.1% in the past 24 hours. Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin have all suffered notable declines, with all large market-cap cryptocurrencies falling below support levels that held last week.  The downturn gained momentum after claims surfaced on X suggesting that Wintermute, one of the industry’s largest market makers, was preparing to sue Binance over alleged issues linked to the October 10 crash. Rumors Of A Lawsuit Against Binance Add To Anxiety Market unease deepened after rumors circulated on X claiming that Wintermute, one of the industry’s leading market makers, was preparing to sue Binance over losses incurred during the October 10 crash. The speculation began when a user known as WhalePump Reborn claimed that Wintermute had lost hundreds of millions and was preparing legal action, describing the situation as “not going to be pretty.” Related Reading: XRP Price At $10,000-$50,000 Is Nonsense: Analyst Bashes Calls For Bitcoin-Like Prices This was followed by another detailed post from a popular X account known as StarPlatinum, which addressed rumors that Wintermute was pursuing legal action against Binance over what it called unfair ADL executions during the massive liquidation event in early October.  As noted by the post, Binance’s system overload during the crash led to automatic deleveraging (ADL) at extreme price points, causing an estimated $19 billion to $20 billion in liquidations in just 24 hours, the largest single-day wipeout in crypto history. Notably, Wintermute’s portfolio across Ethereum, Arbitrum, and Solana fell by about $65 million following the crash, though no on-chain patterns indicated forced liquidations or large withdrawals. Binance, for its part, had acknowledged system overloads at the time but denied any preferential treatment or technical fault that could have led to any unfair losses. Wintermute Founder Refutes Claims Of Lawsuit As panic spread through the market, Wintermute’s founder, Evgeny Gaevoy, took to X to dispel the rumors entirely. Quoting an earlier post from October 11, Gaevoy reiterated that Wintermute had never planned to sue Binance and saw no reason to do so in the future.  “We never had plans to sue Binance, nor see any reason to do it in future,” Gaevoy said on X. “I should probably ask to make a note of all the people spreading baseless rumors, but most of people believing these have goldfish memory capacity, so I wont,” he added. He also described the circulating claims as complete bullshit in a direct response to the WhalePump Reborn post.  Related Reading: Analyst Predicts The ‘Unthinkable’ For XRP – Here’s What It Is The Wintermute rumors are part of various factors that are causing the price of cryptocurrencies to crash. Another factor could be the Fed Chair Jerome Powell hinting that the central bank may not pursue additional rate cuts anytime soon. Adding to the selling pressure were outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to data from Farside Investors, Spot Bitcoin ETFs started November with outflows on Monday, bringing the trend to four consecutive days of outflows. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $104,502, down by 2.8% in the past 24 hours. Ethereum is trading at $3,490, down 6.0% in 24 hours. Dogecoin is trading at $0.1618, down 6.8% in 24 hours. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin’s pullback on Monday sent a quick chill through crypto markets, pulling sentiment down to levels not seen in months. Prices dipped to a 24-hour low of $103,938 after earlier trading above $109,000, and gauges of market mood turned sharply negative as investors reassessed risk. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Be This Week’s Big Story As Saylor Teases Fresh Buy Crypto Fear Hits Extreme Readings According to the Crypto Fear & Greed Index, the score fell to 21 out of 100 on Tuesday, a move that registers as “Extreme Fear.” That mark is the lowest in nearly seven months; the index previously hit 18 out of 100 on April 9, when markets reacted to US President Donald Trump’s global tariff measures. Reports have disclosed that the index has been swinging between calm and alarm since the large sell-off in early October, when readings tumbled after prices slid from a peak above $126,000 on Oct. 6. Market participants pointed to a mix of weak institutional flows and macro worries. Based on reports, Bitcoin-tied exchange-traded funds recorded net outflows of nearly $800 million last week. Analysts said institutional buying recently fell below the amount of newly mined Bitcoin for the first time in seven months. Those trends reduce the steady inflows that had helped support prices. Price Action & Short-Term Drivers Bitcoin recovered above $104,100 after the low, but the sharp intraday swing highlighted fragility. Some traders blamed cooling activity on exchanges and wallets, while others flagged concerns about the Federal Reserve’s stance. The Fed cut interest rates for the second time this year on Wednesday, yet signaled there may not be more cuts in 2025. That hint of a less-accommodating outlook appeared to catch investors off guard, prompting quick re-pricing in both stock and crypto markets. There are also technical points at play. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index last fell into the “Extreme Fear” zone on Oct. 21 when it hit 25 out of 100, after Bitcoin slid from over $110,000 to below $108,000. Earlier, the index had topped 70 — a “Greed” reading — showing how fast sentiment can flip when price moves accelerate. Related Reading: Forget Billions—XRP Could Hit Trillions, Leading Expert Says What Traders Are Watching Next Traders will be watching ETF flows, on-chain activity, and any fresh signals from US policymakers. Based on reports, lower blockchain activity and fewer large buys by institutions have been cited as immediate reasons for the decline. If inflows return, they could stabilize the market. If outflows continue, the pressure may deepen. Market bulls, however, still point to seasonal history. According to historical patterns cited by some analysts, November has often been a strong month for Bitcoin, with average gains above 40% in past years. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView