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Earlier today, Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $115,000 for the first time since August 6, raising concerns that the cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum may be fading. Against this backdrop, the Binance Buying Power Ratio suggests that demand for BTC could be weakening, potentially setting the stage for a deeper price correction. Binance Buying Power Ratio Raises Alarms According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Crazzyblockk, the Binance Buying Power Ratio serves as a reliable indicator of overall market health. The analyst explained that the current reading points to a possible downturn for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds Near $119,000 As Lower Leverage Reduces Correction Risk To explain, the ratio measures stablecoin inflows against Bitcoin outflows on Binance, essentially showing how much new capital is available to buy BTC compared to how much is leaving the exchange. A rising ratio reflects strong buying power and liquidity, while a sharp drop signals weaker demand and a greater risk of correction. Recently, the ratio suffered a steep decline, issuing what the analyst called a “textbook warning” just before BTC’s latest price drop. The correction saw Bitcoin fall from as high as $124,474 on August 13 to a low of $114,786 earlier today. The analyst noted that the ratio peaked at 2.01 on August 14, showing peak buying pressure where for every $1 of BTC moving to cold storage, more than $2 in stablecoins entered the market.  In the following days – from August 16 to 17 – the ratio witnessed a sharp reversal, crashing to -0.81 within 48 hours. As a result, more buying power left Binance than entered it, confirming that the BTC market’s primary fuel source was exhausted. Subsequently, BTC underwent a sustained price correction, falling 4.7% over the past seven days. Currently, the cryptocurrency is hovering slightly below $115,000, while its next major support lies around the $110,000 level. Crazzyblockk concluded: This analysis proves that Binance is the market’s center of gravity. Its capital flows are an early warning system. A falling Buying Power Ratio signals exhausted liquidity and high correction risk. For any serious analyst, monitoring Binance isn’t optional – it’s essential. How Will Bitcoin Perform In September? If Bitcoin avoids slipping below $110,000, the short-term holder cost basis model suggests its next major resistance lies around $127,000. A strong breakout above this level could send BTC climbing toward $140,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Data Shows Accumulation Prevails As LTH Selling Pressure Eases In a separate X post, crypto analyst KillaXBT said BTC must hold above $115,787 to target the $125,000 – $127,000 range in September. However, the analyst warned that even if Bitcoin opens the month with a fresh all-time high, it may not guarantee sustained bullish momentum. At press time, BTC trades at $114,988, down 2.4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant price declines, particularly among the three largest digital assets: Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH), and XRP.  Following record-breaking rallies in the previous week, these cryptocurrencies have seen notable losses, with Ethereum down 5.2%, XRP dropping 3.8%, and Solana (SOL) slipping 6%. Even memecoin Dogecoin (DOGE) has not been spared, losing 5.2% of its value. Crypto Market Faces New Downturn According to a recent report by Barron’s, the recent downturn can be attributed to a combination of macroeconomic factors that have dampened investor optimism.  Wholesale price data has also raised concerns about the potential for sustained high interest rates, while Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that the US government does not plan to expand its Bitcoin reserves.  Related Reading: Ethereum Hits $4,350 Liquidity Pool: Can Demand Hold? Antonio Di Giacomo, analyst at XS, emphasized the impact of macroeconomic indicators on cryptocurrency prices. He pointed out that Bitcoin’s pullback after reaching an all-time high illustrates the volatility that can accompany such rapid price movements, even as institutional adoption of cryptocurrencies continues to rise.  The analyst believes that the digital asset market now appears to be balancing optimism with caution, navigating both structural demand and speculative exposure. Looking ahead, market analysts are closely watching upcoming statements from Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium.  Any hints of hawkishness or delays in rate-cut expectations could further pressure risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Conversely, dovish signals may help sustain the current momentum in the market. September Challenges For Bitcoin In a recent social media post on X (formerly Twitter), market expert Doctor Profit has shared insights regarding the next price trajectory for Bitcoin. He forecasts a sideways movement within a narrow range of approximately 8% leading into September.  While the medium-term outlook remains bullish, he anticipates a significant correction in September, warning that it could be a challenging month for the crypto market.  Profit advises that now is the time to prepare for potential short positions, as he expects prices to decline in the coming weeks, allowing traders to buy back at lower levels. Related Reading: After Monero Hit, Qubic Group Puts Dogecoin On Target List Despite the current pullback, on-chain data reveals continued accumulation by larger wallets, indicating that major investors remain optimistic about the long-term potential of cryptocurrencies.  The expert also highlighted that the funding rates also appear healthy, suggesting that the market is not facing immediate selling pressure despite the recent Bitcoin and Ethereum price declines leading the current downturn.  As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $115,630, registering a 6.5% gap from the recently achieved $124,000 record. Ethereum on the other hand, has been inching closer to its all-time high with the drop stopping at the $4,300 support.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s momentum has slowed after reaching a new all-time high above $124,000 last week. The cryptocurrency has since moved lower, with its price slipping by nearly 10% from that peak. At the time of writing, BTC is trading around $115,424, reflecting a 2.5% decline in the past 24 hours. The retracement has drawn attention to on-chain activity and investor behavior, particularly among long-term holders (LTHs). A CryptoQuant analyst has been monitoring realized profit and loss metrics to gauge whether the current cycle is approaching its peak or if more upside potential remains.  Data released by the analyst sheds light on how seasoned holders are reacting to Bitcoin’s latest rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Must Survive Brutal September Before Q4 Hope, Analyst Predicts Long-Term Holder Trends Across Market Cycles CryptoQuant contributor PelinayPA shared an assessment of Bitcoin’s long-term holder realized profit and loss (RPL) metric, which tracks when investors who have held coins for extended periods decide to sell. According to the analyst, this indicator has historically been reliable in signaling both cycle tops and bottoms. The analysis highlights key phases across multiple market cycles. During the 2017 bull market, a surge in LTH realized profits coincided with Bitcoin’s peak. By contrast, in the 2018–2019 bear market, profit realization slowed dramatically, while losses surfaced, reflecting the market bottom. A similar pattern was observed in 2021, though the profit realization was more gradual, suggesting that selling pressure was spread across the market rather than concentrated in short bursts. When Bitcoin entered the 2022–2023 downturn, realized losses increased significantly as the asset fell into the $15,000–$20,000 range. That period was characterized by panic selling among longer-term holders. In the current market, however, PelinayPA notes that while profit-taking is visible, it remains moderate compared with past peaks. This indicates that, although selling is occurring, it has not yet reached the levels typically associated with a cycle top. What the Current Data Suggests for Bitcoin The current phase of moderate profit realization suggests caution but does not confirm that Bitcoin has fully topped out. PelinayPA explained that: Historically, sharp increases in LTH profit realization (large green spikes) align with bull market tops. Current selling (mid-2025) is measured and gradual, which implies BTC may still be in the late stages of a bull cycle. If LTH selling accelerates, it could mark the next peak. This measured approach by long-term holders could mean that the market retains some room for additional upward movement, provided selling pressure does not intensify. At the same time, the data highlights that a shift toward heavier profit-taking would be an important warning signal for traders and institutions watching the market closely. Related Reading: Bitcoin 30-Day CDD Down: Market Absorbs LTH Selling Without Breaking Support On-chain analytics firms frequently point to these long-term holder behaviors as leading indicators. While Bitcoin’s price action continues to consolidate below its record high, how these investors act in the coming weeks could set the tone for the next stage of the cycle. For now, the data suggests that the rally has not yet reached conditions historically associated with a definitive top, but market participants are advised to watch profit realization closely. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has been moving sideways, and traders are starting to lose patience. The world’s largest cryptocurrency couldn’t hold recent highs, sparking talk about whether the market is bracing for a sharper swing. Some analysts say the pause is normal, others warn it could be the calm before the storm. Related Reading: XRP Chatter Reaches Ride-Share Drivers — Small Survey Shows Mixed Results Traders Watch Price Levels Closely Popular market watcher Daan Crypto Trades pointed out that Bitcoin’s struggle to pick a direction isn’t unusual. He noted the coin has been locked between support and resistance zones, with neither bulls nor bears taking control. It’s the kind of setup that often leads to big moves once one side gives in. $BTC August has been pretty uneventful for Bitcoin so far. We’ve seen some movement but no clear direction as price consolidates in this current range. Never in history, has BTC seen both a green August and September. We tend to see a quick flush followed by an explosive Q4 in… pic.twitter.com/cClxJUG6Vh — Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) August 17, 2025  Meanwhile, technical evidence sends mixed signals. By September 16, 2025, Bitcoin will reportedly hit at least $130,266, which is a 13.07% increase compared to the previous prediction. The Fear & Greed Index is currently at 60, indicating that greed is on the menu, while sentiment indicators are neutral. In the last 30 days, Bitcoin had 14 green sessions out of 30, and the average performance remained on the positive at 1.63%. That isn’t extreme, but it does indicate that traders are being cautious. Analysts Split On What’s Next There are a few investors who believe the current lull is nothing but a breather before another rally. They say that buying interest remains high, particularly with long-term demand coming from institutions. Skeptics, however, believe the latest rejection at higher levels is a sign of weakness and that another pullback opportunity has opened up. Jitters in the marketplace always invite disorientation, and this moment is no exception. A 13% gain sounds exciting, but sentiment may change in a heartbeat if the Bitcoin price loses the entire support level. Traders are keen to see if momentum will pick up or if the sideways chop will continue. Related Reading: XRP’s Toughest Bull Run Could Lead To Big Gains, Analyst Claims Is It A Good Time To Buy? Based on technical indicators, reports suggest it may still be a decent entry point. But timing is tricky. With price forecasts pointing toward $130K and resistance overhead, the next few weeks could decide the short-term trend. Some see this as a chance to accumulate, while others would rather wait for a clearer breakout. For now, Bitcoin sits in limbo. Traders are scanning the charts, looking for clues on whether the path to $135K is still alive — or if the market is setting up for another surprise. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) slipped below $116,000 in Monday’s trading, marking a sharp reversal from last week’s record high above $124,000. The decline follows renewed inflation concerns in the U.S. and uncertainty around Federal Reserve policy, which has dampened risk appetite across global markets. Related Reading: XRP Could Bleed Lower Before Any Major Rally, Analyst Warns At the time of writing, BTC hovers near $115,300, maintaining a fragile grip on support around $115,000. Analysts warn that a breakdown could push prices toward $112,500, but holding this level may pave the way for a recovery toward $120,000 and beyond. Short-term holder data suggests that selling pressure remains limited. The Net Unrealized Profit/Loss ratio sits at just 0.07, well below the 0.25 saturation threshold that historically signals profit-taking and potential corrections. BTC's price records notable losses on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Metaplanet Expands Bitcoin Treasury While markets remain cautious, Tokyo-based Metaplanet Inc. has doubled down on its Bitcoin strategy. The firm announced the purchase of 775 BTC at an average price of ¥17,720,023 per coin (about $122,000), bringing its total holdings to 18,888 BTC. Metaplanet’s aggressive accumulation shows growing institutional conviction in Bitcoin as a treasury asset. Despite short-term volatility, the company has posted impressive Bitcoin yield metrics, including a 129.4% gain from April to June 2025 and 29.3% gains from July through mid-August. Such moves reflect how corporate players continue to use dips as entry points, reinforcing the narrative of Bitcoin as a long-term hedge against inflation and currency depreciation. Buying Opportunity or Warning Sign? Market watchers remain split on whether this correction is a setup for the next leg higher or a warning of deeper downside. If Bitcoin can reclaim $117,261 as support, momentum could accelerate toward $127,000, the first major resistance flagged by on-chain cost basis models. Beyond that, the +2σ band around $144,000 represents the zone where euphoria typically peaks before corrections emerge. Related Reading: Dogecoin (DOGE) Battles Gravity, Can It Escape a Potential Freefall? For now, Bitcoin’s fate rests on holding $115,000 support. With institutional buying, ETF inflows, and corporate treasury adoption showing resilience, many see the current pullback less as a peak and more as an opportunity for strategic accumulation. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin is trading around the $115,000 level after a sharp pullback from its recent all-time high near $124,000. Volatility has returned to the market, sparking renewed debate among analysts and investors over whether BTC is preparing for a deeper correction or gearing up for the next leg higher. The current price action reflects indecision, with buyers and sellers locked in a tight battle at these critical levels. Related Reading: Ethereum Demand Grows As ETFs Break Records With $2.85B Weekly Inflow Some analysts warn that Bitcoin could face stronger selling pressure if it fails to reclaim momentum, while others argue that this retrace is a healthy reset before another aggressive move upward. What is clear, however, is that investors are preparing for heightened market swings in the coming weeks. Key on-chain data reveals that short-term holders (STHs) remain under pressure. Since November and December of 2024, the average profit realized by this group has not exceeded 5%. This means their Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has stayed below 1.05, signaling that many recent market entrants have struggled to lock in meaningful gains. Historically, this kind of stagnation in STH profitability has preceded major directional moves, suggesting that Bitcoin may be on the verge of its next decisive phase. Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Under Pressure Top analyst Darkfost has provided a fresh take on Bitcoin’s current market structure, focusing on the behavior of short-term holders (STHs) through the lens of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). The SOPR measures the average profit or loss realized when a UTxO is spent, making it one of the most reliable gauges of investor profitability and selling behavior. At present, the STH SOPR remains stuck at the neutral ratio of 1. This means that, on average, recent market entrants are breaking even on the coins they sell, rather than realizing a profit or a loss. According to Darkfost, this suggests that many STHs entered the market late, likely during Bitcoin’s push above $100,000 over the past six months. As a result, they now find themselves in a holding pattern, waiting for price appreciation to secure meaningful returns. Darkfost emphasizes that in bull markets, these dynamics often follow a predictable pattern. When STHs are shaken out, their SOPR typically dips below 1, reflecting selling at a loss. Historically, such phases have created attractive dollar-cost averaging (DCA) opportunities, as capitulation from weaker hands clears the way for stronger upward trends. Related Reading: Bitcoin 30-Day CDD Down: Market Absorbs LTH Selling Without Breaking Support Bitcoin Price Analysis: Key Levels in Focus Bitcoin is currently trading near $115,133, after pulling back sharply from the recent peak at $124,000. The chart shows that BTC has broken away from its mid-summer consolidation, but momentum has cooled, with price now testing support around the 50-day moving average ($115,712). This level will be critical in the short term, as a sustained breakdown could open the way toward the 100-day moving average near $110,833. Related Reading: Ethereum On-Chain Volume Soars To $13 Billion, Approaching Historic Records Despite the recent decline, the broader structure remains constructive. Bitcoin has spent much of the past six months above the psychological $100,000 level, establishing strong long-term support. The rejection near $123,217, marked by the yellow resistance line, suggests that bulls will need more conviction to push BTC into new highs. A clean breakout above that level could quickly send the price toward the $130,000–$135,000 region. On the downside, the 200-day moving average ($100,339) remains the ultimate line of defense. As long as BTC stays above this level, the broader bull trend remains intact. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz expects Bitcoin to endure a grinding, probabilistic market over the next six weeks before conditions improve into the fourth quarter, warning that September seasonality, softening momentum signals, and mixed ETF flow dynamics argue for patience rather than leverage. “The TL;DW is probably chopped and bearish near-term, bullish Q4,” he said in an August 18 video, adding that the path to a cleaner upside impulse is explicitly conditional on a handful of technical and flow triggers rather than a single catalyst. The Battle Lines Are Drawn For Bitcoin Olszewicz anchors the near-term roadmap in flows and seasonality. He wants “just nothing—just flatline on [ETF] flows for the next couple weeks and then four weeks of even worse,” arguing that a reset would “set us up for Q4.” While he noted, “We did have $550 million in a week, which is pretty good for any ETF… still a solid number… not zero,” he contrasted that with earlier, much larger weekly tallies and observed that corporate treasury buying—“still a lot of sellers obviously if price hasn’t gone anywhere”—has slowed from peak pace. The implication is not overt bearishness, but “time, not price”: either sharp pullbacks in names that ran or “dead sideways for six weeks.” On Bitcoin’s chart, Olszewicz reduces the debate to a well-defined line in the sand and a small set of Ichimoku- and trend-based triggers. “Since July… $121–$122,000 is still the imaginary line in the sand… a daily close above that level, I’m good with higher,” he said, adding, “Above $120,000 it’s easy. I like $150,000.” Until that break, he sees “chop” dominating. Related Reading: Michael Saylor Sets $100 Billion Target For Bitcoin Credit Initiative He identifies “the first signs of trouble” as “closing in the daily cloud and/or closing below the 20-week moving average—the yellow line there at $104,000,” and stresses the timing nuance: “If we get a close below the cloud in September, I’m a little less worried than if we get it in October.” A decisive slip late in Q3 rolling into Q4 would be more concerning. “If we close below $100k in October, then I’m closer to this cycle-over, no-more-cycles camp,” he warned, clarifying, “We’re far from that currently… there’s nothing here that’s bearish whatsoever—it’s just momentumless.” His preferred system-of-confirmation leans on the Ichimoku suite and a separate cloud backtest he tracks on the BTC daily chart. That model “caught [the] April move” early; at present it reads “okay,” but he outlines the precise sequence that would flip his bias: “You need first the bearish TK cross… and then a close in the cloud… then there’s a decent edge-to-edge trade.” It’s a decision tree, not a prediction: “It’s nuanced… if this, then that.” Macro timing could add friction in the interim. He points to Friday’s Jackson Hole appearance by Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as the only obvious near-term “catalyst,” suggesting a hawkish tone—“not cutting, needing more data, needing more time”—would be a headwind. He also mused that “Trump may even announce his replacement before Powell speaks… just to steal the thunder,” framing it as a headline-risk factor for risk assets, not a base case. Still, the larger macro backdrop—rising global money supply and debt—remains a structural tailwind for scarce assets, in his view: “That’s going to provide a nice cushion… as they keep printing money everywhere globally.” Waiting For The Q4 Seasonality Olszewicz emphasizes that this doesn’t preclude upside, but it does undercut the probability of trending continuation in the very near term. By contrast, he calls Ethereum’s positioning “horrific… for the long side,” even as ETH just printed a record ETF-flow week—an apparent paradox he resolves by distinguishing one-week surges from the “stream of continuous flows” that sustains trends. The comparison matters for Bitcoin because a broad-based crypto risk bid is harder to maintain if ETH’s positioning and overbought technicals stall leadership. Related Reading: Bitcoin Data Shows Accumulation Prevails As LTH Selling Pressure Eases Within Bitcoin’s own market structure, Olszewicz blends tactical caution with the longer-term thesis many cycle investors still hold. He flags that “August has been bullish” so far but notes the historical rarity of “six months in a row” of green closes, and he reiterates that traders looking for “high-conviction moves” with leverage should prefer to wait for signals rather than force exposure in “nothingness.” Conversely, for long-horizon holders, he cites the power-law corridor as a reason to avoid second-guessing unless the market fails badly into Q4: “If you think there’s a… 30–50% chance that we actually attempt a parabolic move past the midpoint of the power law… it’s probably just worth sitting tight as an investor and saying, okay, show it to me.” That framework also explains his tolerance for deeper retests without abandoning the larger uptrend. He repeats that there is “plenty [of] room to get angry and go down,” with the 20-week moving average and daily cloud serving as objective guardrails. A September cloud break is a warning; an October cloud break or an October close below $100k would be a far stronger statement about the cycle’s health. Until then, he expects a market “holding levels,” with $121,000–$122,000 as the trigger that would convert “dead momentum” into a genuine impulse. For Bitcoin traders, the takeaway is spare and unsentimental. There is no “magical setup” this week, and the statistically unfriendly month of September looms. The bullish path into Q4 exists, but it must be earned: In the meantime, Olszewicz’s baseline is either rangebound “nothingness” or opportunistic pullbacks that reset overheated pockets of the market. The contingency that flips that script is clear enough to write on a Post-it: maintain the cloud, defend the 20-week around $104,000, and close decisively above $121,000–$122,000. Only then, Bitcoin could target $150,000.” At press time, BTC traded at $115,069. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

After hitting a new all-time high, the bitcoin price has since retraced towards its pre-pump levels from last week, completely erasing its rapid gains. As a result, the bears seem to be reclaiming control once again, with sellers dominating the market. While expectations for another sharp recovery abound, crypto analyst Melikatrader has outlined two possible scenarios for the pioneer cryptocurrency, with both ending in bearish reversals toward established local peaks. Lower Trendline Break Points To Bearish Developments The analysis highlights the two possible directions that the Bitcoin price could be headed in after the fall from its new all-time highs. Both scenarios start out with a bullish push upward, and then a bearish decline. However, with each one, there is a different possible peak before resistance kicks in. Related Reading: Bitcoin And Crypto Market To Crash? Analyst’s August-September Prediction In both cases, the first trigger is the fact that the Bitcoin price had broken out of the lower trendline of the channel. This comes after it had initially broken the ascending channel that it had been trading inside of, with the result being higher highs and higher lows. Thus, the break below the trendline means that bearish pressure is beginning to dominate. With the bearish pressure mounting and sellers taking control, there are now two ways that the price could go. The first of these is that it continues to rally and then gets rejected above the $118,000 level. This is a supply zone, where sellers could unload massive amounts of BTC into the market and beat back the price. In the second scenario, the price does continue to rally even after hitting the first supply zone. This takes it into the next supply zone just below $120,000, which is currently sitting at $19,700. However, the end remains the same as that of the first scenario, where sellers are likely to dump and send the Bitcoin price plummeting again. How Low Can The Bitcoin Price Go? As the analyst highlights, the peak of both scenarios aligns with retracement levels where sellers could be waiting to dump. Given this, they both have a similar bottom after crashing. From here, the downside target for both scenarios is placed at the $115,800 target. Related Reading: XRP Price Could Be Headed To New All-Time Highs Due To These Factors This is because this is where previous demand and support had been during the previous retracement/correction. Given this, it is likely that buyers are likely to step back in at this level, making it a possible bottom and the launch point for the next rally. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s price rally has hit turbulence over the past 48 hours, and this has opened the door for bearish voices to resurface. After reaching a fresh high of $124,128 just three days ago, the leading cryptocurrency has since declined by about 4.8%, sliding back to the $117,000 to $118,000 price zone at the time of writing. This pullback has opened up a possibility that the much-anticipated macro top may already be in, and further downside may be possible if there is a lack of bullish momentum. Related Reading: Trump Coin Jumps 10% On Canary Capital ETF Filing: Details Analyst Maps Out Bearish Bitcoin Wave Structure Bitcoin showed signs of building on in early August after bouncing off a low around $112,000. However, after its latest high at $124,128, sellers quickly stepped in, pulling the price down. The decline has been accompanied by fading short-term momentum. Although it might be too early to conclude, relative strength index (RSI) readings are starting to point to a bearish divergence on the 4-hour candlestick timeframe chart. Taking to the social media platform X, crypto analyst CasiTrades outlined what they believe could be the start of a larger ABC corrective structure for Bitcoin. According to the projection, Bitcoin may be entering Wave A, which consists of a five-wave corrective structure that could send the price to as low as $77,000 at the macro 0.382 Fibonacci retracement.  The roadmap of this price crash envisions an initial Wave 1 drop to $112,000, a brief Wave 2 recovery back to $120,000, and then another Wave 3 decline into the $89,000 range. After this, the next step is a Wave 4 retest break of $100,000 before reversing into Wave 5, which brings the ultimate Wave A bottom at $77,000. Chart Image From X: CasiTrades The accompanying chart posted by the analyst shows the wave counts with subwave precision. Interestingly, the analyst also pointed out that the ultimate macro target for the end of this correction is at $60,000, right at the golden 0.618 Fibonacci retracement. This is at the macro level and can only come to fruition if the ABC corrective waves play out to completion. A Bearish Tone Amidst Bullish Predictions This analysis introduces a sobering counterpoint at a time when many forecasts continue to paint Bitcoin as being on track for $150,000 and beyond. Even though strong institutional inflows and technical milestones, such as the realized price flipping above the 200-day moving average are bullish indicators, the bearish scenario from CasiTrades could still be valid.  If Bitcoin fails to reclaim bullish momentum, the current correction could change into something deeper, making the $124,000 high not just a pause but the macro top of this cycle. Related Reading: XRP Chatter Reaches Ride-Share Drivers — Small Survey Shows Mixed Results Although many cryptocurrencies have largely followed Bitcoin’s movements this cycle, CasiTrade’s analysis isn’t a bearish case for the entire crypto market. According to the analyst, if this bearish case plays out, it could cause the long-discussed capital rotation out of Bitcoin and into large-cap altcoins, some of which may surge to new all-time price highs even as Bitcoin retraces. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $118,203. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is trading at a decisive level after surging to fresh all-time highs, touching $124,000 before pulling back. Bulls remain in control, but the market now shows signs of hesitation, with BTC struggling to confirm momentum above $120,000. This price action reflects indecision among traders as the market balances profit-taking with renewed accumulation. Related Reading: Ethereum On-Chain Volume Soars To $13 Billion, Approaching Historic Records On-chain data highlights a key shift in dynamics. After a sharp increase in the 30-day average Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) — a metric often used to track long-term holder activity and selling pressure — the indicator has now dropped significantly. This decline suggests that selling pressure from older coins has eased, even after recent profit-taking. For investors, the message is clear: while Bitcoin remains in a powerful uptrend, the inability to stay firmly above $120K highlights a critical juncture. If selling pressure continues to ease, BTC could consolidate and prepare for another breakout attempt. However, failure to hold these levels may embolden bears who are already speculating on a potential top. The coming sessions will be pivotal in defining Bitcoin’s next move. Bitcoin Selling Pressure Eases As CDD Drops According to top analyst Darkfost, the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator remains one of the most reliable tools for gauging selling pressure, particularly from long-term holders (LTHs). The metric measures how long a Bitcoin has been held before being moved, essentially combining both volume and coin age. In most cases, older BTC are moved in preparation for selling, making CDD spikes a strong indicator of distribution phases in the market. On July 23rd, the 30-day moving average of CDD surged to its highest level of this cycle, reaching nearly 1.35 million. This suggested that a significant amount of long-held Bitcoin was moved — and likely sold — as investors looked to lock in profits at or near record prices. Despite this wave of selling, however, Bitcoin’s price action has held up remarkably well, signaling robust demand and the ability of the market to absorb supply without major breakdowns. Since late July, this selling pressure has notably eased. The 30-dma CDD has been steadily declining throughout August, indicating fewer older coins are hitting the market. This trend highlights renewed stability and suggests accumulation is regaining dominance over distribution. For Bitcoin’s broader outlook, the decline in CDD is a bullish signal. It shows that despite profit-taking, strong demand underpins current price levels, allowing BTC to consolidate near highs. If this trend continues, the groundwork may be laid for another leg higher in the ongoing bull cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Data Shows Accumulation Prevails As LTH Selling Pressure Eases Price Analysis: Testing Key Support Level Bitcoin is consolidating just below its recent all-time high, with the chart showing clear resistance at $123,217. After briefly touching the $124K region, BTC retraced and is now trading around $117,497, sitting on top of key moving averages. The 50-day SMA (~$117,337) is acting as immediate short-term support, while the 100-day SMA (~$115,366) provides an additional safety net for bulls. The 200-day SMA (~$110,551) remains far below, reflecting the strong momentum of the current uptrend. The structure suggests indecision, with buyers defending support but failing to break above the $123K–$124K zone. A clean breakout above this level could open the path toward $130K and beyond, confirming continuation of the bull run. Conversely, a breakdown below $115K would signal weakness and expose BTC to deeper retracements. Related Reading: Memecoins Lose Ground In Market Share As Ethereum Absorbs Liquidity Momentum indicators suggest consolidation, not distribution, which aligns with the broader narrative of long-term holders selling into strength while new buyers step in. This healthy churn has allowed Bitcoin to sustain high levels without collapsing, a sign of structural resilience. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

According to a new technical analysis, Bitcoin (BTC) and the broader crypto market could be mirroring historical post-halving cycle patterns. While the market has previously rallied through July and August, historical fractals point to a potential crash in September, followed by a push into a cycle peak later in the year.  Related Reading: Trump Coin Jumps 10% On Canary Capital ETF Filing: Details September Proves Risky For Bitcoin And Crypto Market  A recent X social media post by crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen has highlighted a recurring pattern in Bitcoin’s price action that could have significant implications for the market over the coming months. His analysis shows that Bitcoin has consistently followed a post-halving cycle that exhibits distinct seasonal price movements, particularly around July, August, and September. The chart shared by Cowen illustrates that in previous cycles, Bitcoin has often rallied in July and August, fueling optimism and strong market sentiment. However, each time this has been followed by a September crash, leading to a reset before the final push toward the cycle top, which usually arrives in the last quarter of the year.  According to the analysis, this repeating structure is not unique to a single cycle but has appeared across multiple past cycles, giving weight to the expert’s argument that history could be repeating. In 2013, 2017, and 2021, Bitcoin’s price behavior followed this pattern almost identically, showing strength in mid-summer and weakness in September.  After a final rally to a peak, each of these cycles was eventually followed by an extended bear market phase, during which valuations corrected sharply from their highs. Based on Cowen’s report, the current cycle appears to be unfolding the same way, as Bitcoin already displayed strength in July and August this year, sparking concerns that a September pullback could be approaching.  BTC Cycles Suggest Market Still Has Room To Grow A new technical analysis by crypto market expert TechDev also reveals a recurring pattern in Bitcoin’s long-term price cycles, arguing that, contrary to popular belief, the current market may still be far from its peak. The analysis, supported by a historical chart of BTC’s performance, shows that every market top has consistently occurred around 14 months after a specific cyclical signal.  The chart outlines multiple Bitcoin cycles dating back to 2011, with tops and bottoms clearly marked with green and red indicators. Each upward run is followed by a significant correction and then a recovery accumulation phase. The data also revealed that each cycle top often aligned with a measured time frame of approximately 420 days.  Related Reading: Chainlink Breaks 3-Month High Amid Record 2025 Enthusiasm Based on this model, current projections show that Bitcoin still has room to run. The most recent green marker on the chart signals that the market could already be transitioning out of its corrective phase. If historical patterns hold, this could mean the market is entering a prolonged growth window rather than nearing exhaustion.  Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

According to CRYPTOWZRD’s recent update, Bitcoin ended the last session on a bearish note, but the broader outlook may soon shift. He noted that the Trump–Putin meeting delivered a productive outcome, which could fuel a positive reaction in the market if conditions remain steady. Daily Candle Shows Slight Bearish Bias, Yet Indecisive In his update, CRYPTOWZRD noted that Bitcoin’s daily candle closed slightly bearish. The analyst explained that although the close leaned to the downside, he would still consider the overall signal indecisive.  Related Reading: Bull Case For Bitcoin At $300,000 Triggers After Reaching Critical Level Turning attention to external factors, CRYPTOWZRD highlighted that the recent meeting between US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Alaska was productive. He pointed out that this development could create a favorable atmosphere in the broader crypto market, which may spill over into Bitcoin, unless the situation changes later on. At the same time, CRYPTOWZRD stressed that traders cannot overlook the traditional markets, where the weekly candle closed bearish. He described this as an early warning sign that should not be dismissed, as it may serve as a precursor to deeper corrections if unexpected developments occur.  In his view, this makes it necessary to remain alert, even in the face of seemingly positive momentum elsewhere. While a productive geopolitical meeting may boost investor confidence, the bearish weekly signal in traditional markets is a reminder that conditions can quickly shift.  As for his approach, CRYPTOWZRD stated that his focus remains on the lower timeframe chart formations. He believes this is where quick scalp opportunities are likely to emerge, allowing traders to capture movement without being overly exposed to sudden swings. By tracking these intraday setups, he intends to navigate the volatility while waiting for clearer signals on Bitcoin’s next larger move. Bitcoin Choppy Price Action Limits Clear Setups Rounding up his analysis, CRYPTOWZRD observed that the intraday chart for Bitcoin remained somewhat choppy and leaned bearish. He explained that price action has been confined within a relatively small range, making it less favorable for immediate trading decisions.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Volatility Hits 2-Year Low As 30-Day Range Tightens He emphasized that the key level to watch on the upside is $119,500. According to the expert, a move above this threshold would shift Bitcoin into bullish territory, creating a potential long opportunity. Until that breakout occurs, he prefers to remain cautious rather than force trades in uncertain conditions. On the downside, CRYPTOWZRD noted that a break below $117,000 would signal further weakness and open the door for short positions. For now, he concluded that an ideal approach is to wait for the next decisive move before taking action. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is undergoing a structural transformation, and institutional investors are steadily tightening their grip on the cryptocurrency. As of mid-2025, institutional investors are becoming a dominant force in Bitcoin ownership and are steadily capturing a large portion of its circulating supply.  Institutional Bitcoin Holdings Barrel Toward 20% Of Supply Recent data shows that institutions, ranging from ETFs to public companies, now control an unprecedented share of Bitcoin, worth hundreds of billions of dollars. Estimates place institutional ownership anywhere between 17 and nearly 31 percent of total supply when also factoring the amount controlled by governments. Related Reading: Trump Coin Jumps 10% On Canary Capital ETF Filing: Details According to data from Bitbo, entities such as ETFs, public and private companies, governments, and DeFi protocols collectively hold more than 3.642 million BTC, equal to about 17.344% of the total supply. At today’s prices, that represents roughly $428 billion worth of Bitcoin locked away in institutional treasuries.  ETFs are the largest contributors, with over 1.49 million BTC, while public companies such as Strategy, Tesla, and others account for 935,498 BTC. Strategy’s role is especially noteworthy, as the firm’s relentless accumulation strategy in recent years has seen it amass 628,946 BTC, or about three percent of the entire circulating supply. Bitbo data shows private companies hold 426,237, worth $50.17 billion, and about 2.03% of the total circulating supply. BTC mining companies own 109,808 BTC (0.523% of the total circulating supply), while DeFi protocols own 267,236 BTC (1.273% of the total circulating supply). Bitcoin holdings by category. Source: Bitbo Other reports, including a joint study by Gemini and Glassnode, suggest the numbers could be even higher. Their findings point to centralized treasuries composed of governments, ETFs, corporations, and exchanges controlling up to 30.9% of circulating Bitcoin, which equates to over 6.1 million BTC. This increase represents a 924% surge in institutional control of Bitcoin compared to a decade ago. Chart Image From Gemini: Bitcoin treasury holdings by entity type Is Bitcoin The New Wall Street Playground? Bitcoin’s rise in its early years was based on a mix of enthusiasm from retail investors and long-term conviction from early adopters, but the market’s balance of power is shifting. According to the holding data, Bitcoin is increasingly becoming much less affordable for retail traders and is now becoming a playground for large Wall Street institutions.  Institutional demand for Bitcoin has not been confined to corporations and ETFs alone. Governments are beginning to make their presence felt, and the United States took the most notable step earlier this year. In March 2025, the US government established a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve filled with seized and forfeited digital assets. Other governments like El Salvador and Bhutan are also accumulating Bitcoin through intentional, ongoing purchases, further tightening the supply in circulation Related Reading: Chainlink Breaks 3-Month High Amid Record 2025 Enthusiasm Some analysts believe this could reduce Bitcoin’s price volatility and support its price growth over the long term. On the other hand, the concentration of Bitcoin among a relatively small number of entities could undermine its decentralization and the natural growth of its price. Either way, the data shows that Bitcoin is now becoming Wall Street’s newest playground. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $117,460. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

This week saw record trading in US spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs, driven largely by a sudden rush into Ether funds. Related Reading: Chainlink Breaks 3-Month High Amid Record 2025 Enthusiasm According to ETF analyst Eric Balchunas, Ether ETFs alone posted roughly $17 billion in weekly volume, a figure that surprised many after months of quiet. The spike has pushed trading desks to rethink how fast money can flow into these funds. Ether ETFs Record Big Volume Reports have disclosed that spot Ether ETFs not only logged about $17 billion in weekly trading volume, but also saw a record single-day net inflow of $1 billion. Across the first two weeks of August, the funds pulled in more than $3 billion. According to Balchunas, it was almost as if the Ether ETFs were in hibernation mode for 11 months and then crammed one year’s worth of activity into six weeks. That phrase captured how suddenly demand arrived. Spot Bitcoin + Ether ETFs did about $40b in volume this week, biggest week ever for them, thanks to Ether ETFs stepping up big. Massive number, equiv to a Top 5 ETF or Top 10 stock’s volume. pic.twitter.com/Z89uV63A3w — Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) August 15, 2025 Price Peaks And Quick Pullbacks Based on market data, Bitcoin hit a headline-making high of $124,000 on Thursday, while Ether came within nearly 2.1% of its November 2021 high by reaching $4,787, CoinMarketCap data shows. The highs did not stick. Since Thursday, Bitcoin has fallen over 5% from that peak and was trading around $117,648, while Ether dropped 6.15% and sat near $4,475. Short swings like these are common when excitement and fresh flows meet thin liquidity. Comparisons To The Bitcoin ETF Run Analysts are drawing parallels to last year’s Bitcoin ETF rush. Reports point out that Bitcoin ETFs reached new highs of $73,680 just two months after launching in January 2024. MN Trading Capital founder Michael van de Poppe said, “There’s way more to come for this cycle.” That view reflects optimism among some traders that ETFs can keep driving prices higher across crypto markets. Related Reading: Trump Coin Jumps 10% On Canary Capital ETF Filing: Details Caution From Market Watchers At the same time, some market watchers warn that a fresh all-time high for Ether could still be weeks or months away. Flows can be volatile. Big one-day inflows can move markets quickly, but they can also reverse just as fast when traders take profits or shift strategies. If Ether funds keep bringing in large sums beyond the first two weeks of August, the move looks more durable. If not, the big numbers could turn out to be a short-lived spike. Based on reports and market behavior so far, ETFs are clearly a major near-term driver for both Bitcoin and Ether. The story is still unfolding. Some expect more gains; others urge patience. Either way, the sudden rush into Ether ETFs has made this chapter one of the busiest in recent crypto trading history. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin is trading at a decisive point after recently setting new all-time highs, but momentum appears to be shifting. Despite briefly pushing past $120,000, BTC failed to sustain levels above its record, and the breakout above ATH remains unconfirmed. This lack of follow-through has fueled bearish speculation, with some analysts warning that the market could be facing increased downside risk in the short term. Related Reading: Memecoins Lose Ground In Market Share As Ethereum Absorbs Liquidity At the same time, on-chain data paints a more constructive picture for long-term stability. According to the latest insights, the Long-Term Holder (LTH) cohort—those holding Bitcoin between six months and two years—has significantly increased its supply. Since April, when BTC was trading at $83,000, their holdings have grown from 3.551 million BTC to 5.191 million BTC, a remarkable increase of 1.64 million BTC. This accumulation suggests strong conviction among seasoned investors, even as short-term volatility challenges the market. While traders focus on whether Bitcoin can reclaim $120,000 and establish a firm breakout, the ongoing buildup by long-term holders reinforces the broader bullish structure. The clash between short-term weakness and long-term strength will likely define Bitcoin’s next major move. Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Signal Strength According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s latest test of the all-time high at $118,000 showed a very different behavior compared to past cycles. During this move, long-term holders (LTHs) who have been holding coins between six months and two years engaged in some profit-taking. Data reveals their seven-day average spending climbed to 20,000 BTC. However, this level is far below the typical distribution spikes of previous cycles, where spending often surged to between 40,000 and 70,000 BTC. This more moderate selling activity suggests that the conviction among long-term holders remains strong. Rather than aggressively taking profits, many are choosing to continue accumulating or simply holding their positions. Adler highlights that accumulation still outweighs distribution, reflecting confidence in the market’s future direction. Such behavior from experienced participants typically signals a healthier, more sustainable bull phase, where selling pressure is absorbed without disrupting the broader uptrend. Despite this encouraging backdrop, Bitcoin faces a crucial technical test. To confirm the strength of the latest move, BTC needs to decisively push above the $125,000 level. A breakout beyond this resistance would likely validate the resilience shown by long-term holders and open the path toward further price discovery. If bulls succeed, the combination of institutional demand, long-term accumulation, and reduced selling pressure could drive the next major rally. Conversely, failure to reclaim $125,000 in the near term might give bears room to test lower levels before the next leg up. Related Reading: Bitcoin STH SOPR-7d Signals Healthy Demand: Market Absorbs Selling Pressure Testing Support After ATH Rejection Bitcoin’s 4-hour chart shows price retreating after a sharp rejection near $123,200, just below the recent all-time high at $124,000. Following this failed breakout attempt, BTC has slipped back toward $117,300, where it is currently holding above the key confluence of the 100 and 200 moving averages. This zone between $116,900 and $117,600 is acting as immediate support. A decisive breakdown here could expose further downside toward $115,000. However, the moving averages continue to slope upward, reflecting an underlying bullish structure despite the short-term weakness. Related Reading: TRON Long-Term Holders See Massive Gains As TRX Pushes Toward Multi-Year Highs The repeated rejection at $123,000–$124,000 highlights the importance of this resistance. Bulls will need to reclaim this zone with conviction to confirm momentum and extend the uptrend toward higher levels. Until then, the market remains in a consolidation phase, with traders closely watching if support at the $117K region holds. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Michael Saylor, chairman of the largest public Bitcoin treasury company, Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), is embarking on what could be his most daring financial venture yet: the introduction of perpetual preferred stock as a new funding mechanism.  This new approach seeks to move away from traditional methods like common stock sales and convertible bonds, which have already helped Strategy amass $75 billion in Bitcoin assets.  Saylor’s Bitcoin Credit Model The perpetual preferred stock, branded “Stretch,” offers a unique financial structure—these securities do not mature and can even defer dividend payments, providing flexibility for the issuer while potentially unsettling investors. Related Reading: Ethereum Faces The Level That Decides Everything: Analyst The Stretch offering features variable-rate dividends and lacks voting rights, positioning it as neither conventional debt nor typical equity. Saylor believes this could provide the company with the necessary capital to continue acquiring Bitcoin.  According to Bloomberg, over the next four years, he plans to retire billions in convertible notes, reduce common stock sales, and rely more heavily on preferred offerings as his primary funding source. This ambitious plan aims to establish a “BTC Credit Model,” where Bitcoin underpins a new stream of income. Saylor envisions the potential to raise “$100 billion… even $200 billion” if demand for these securities is strong.  High-Yield Risks So far this year, Strategy has raised approximately $6 billion through four perpetual preferred offerings, with the latest $2.5 billion tranche being one of the largest capital raises in the crypto space this year. As Michael Youngworth from Bank of America noted, this retail-driven approach is unique in the corporate preferred market, which is typically dominated by investment-grade institutions. However, there are concerns about the sustainability of this model. The perpetual preferreds require ongoing, substantial dividend payments, which could be a challenge given that Bitcoin itself does not generate income.  Saylor’s push for perpetual preferreds is also a strategic response to the limitations of the convertible market, which tends to exclude retail investors.  Related Reading: Analyst Says XRP Price Could Explode 44,000% To Cross $1,000 Strategy’s CEO, Phong Le, has framed this shift as a way to create a more resilient capital structure, particularly in light of the challenges faced during the 2022 “crypto winter.” Despite the potential advantages, the high yields associated with perpetual preferreds—often between 8% and 10%—could become burdensome, especially in a market downturn, according to experts.  Critics like short-seller Jim Chanos have labeled these instruments as “crazy” for institutions to buy, given their non-cumulative nature and the issuer’s discretion over dividend payments. When writing, Bitcoin trades at $117,260, retracing over 5% from the recently achieved $124,400 all-time high earlier in the week. Year-to-date, the market’s leading crypto is up 101%. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin remains under the $120,000 price mark following a pullback triggered by remarks from the US Treasury that the federal government will not be purchasing the cryptocurrency. At the time of writing, BTC is valued at approximately $118,612, representing a 4.1% decline from its record high above $124,000 reached earlier this week. The market seems to be currently assessing whether this consolidation phase will lead to renewed upward momentum or extend the correction. Recent blockchain data has brought attention to activity on Binance, the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchange by trading volume. Related Reading: Bitcoin Act Is Still America’s Playbook, Clarifies Senator Lummis Bitcoin Exchange Inflows and Potential Impact According to CryptoOnchain, a contributor to the on-chain data provider platform CryptoQuant, the exchange has recorded one of the seven highest average Bitcoin inflows in recent months. This increase, measured by the Mean Inflow metric, reflects a greater volume of BTC being transferred into Binance wallets, potentially as preparation for selling, using as collateral for leveraged positions, or institutional portfolio adjustments. CryptoOnchain explained that persistent high inflows often indicate that more Bitcoin is moving from private wallets to exchange trading accounts. Without equivalent buying demand to offset this, the increase in supply can create short-term selling pressure. The positive netflow trend, where inflows surpass withdrawals, supports this interpretation, showing that Binance’s Bitcoin reserves are growing. Historically, similar patterns have preceded periods of price volatility, particularly if large holders decide to offload positions or hedge via derivatives markets. If inflows continue at their current pace without a parallel rise in demand, the analyst suggests the market could experience higher short-term downside risk. On the other hand, if these inflows are met with strong buying interest, they could provide liquidity for further price movement. The key factor remains whether the increase in exchange-held BTC is driven by selling intentions or strategic positioning ahead of market developments. Leverage Trends Point to Lower Speculative Risk A separate analysis from another CryptoQuant contributor, Arab Chain, examined Binance’s Estimated Leverage Ratio (ELR) for Bitcoin. The ratio, which measures open interest relative to exchange reserves, recently dropped from its early August peak above 0.27 to around 0.25, before showing a modest rebound. From May to late July, both Bitcoin’s price and the leverage ratio rose together, suggesting heightened participation from traders using larger positions. The recent drop in leverage, despite prices remaining near $119,000, indicates a reduction in speculative exposure, possibly from liquidated high-risk positions or profit-taking after rapid price gains. Arab Chain noted that a lower leverage ratio during a period of price stability can be a constructive sign, as it implies that market support is coming from actual liquidity rather than excessive speculation. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Cycle You Knew Is Dead, Says Capriole Founder Should the ELR remain between 0.24 and 0.25 while Bitcoin gradually moves above $120,000, it could signal a price advance driven more by spot demand than leveraged trading. However, a sudden rise in the leverage ratio above 0.27 during another test of the $120,000–$124,000 range would increase the risk of a sharp correction. This would mirror the conditions seen during previous liquidation events, where a combination of high leverage and rapid price movements triggered large sell-offs, the analyst noted. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

American Bitcoin, the recently established mining company backed by Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, is actively seeking opportunities to acquire companies in Asia to bolster its Bitcoin (BTC) reserves.  According to a report by the Financial Times, sources familiar with the matter indicated that the company aims to purchase a publicly listed firm in Japan, with potential interests in Hong Kong as well. American Bitcoin Aims To Mirror Strategy’s Success American Bitcoin is already in the process of developing its own strategic Bitcoin reserve, mulling President Donald Trump’s very own vision of creating a stockpile of the market’s leading crypto for the country.  The Financial Times asserts that the company established in collaboration with Hut 8 is currently engaging with investors in the Asian region regarding potential acquisitions.  Related Reading: Ethereum Faces The Level That Decides Everything: Analyst The company’s ambition is said to mirror the successful approach of Michael Saylor, the founder of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), which has the largest Bitcoin holdings of any public company, surpassing 600,000 BTC coins according to Bitcointreasuries.Net data. The firm’s goal coincides with that of other companies exploring the crypto treasury reserve approach. These companies focus on assets beyond Bitcoin, including Ethereum (ETH), Binance Coin (BNB), and TRON, among others. These firms sell shares or debt to fund their purchases of digital assets, allowing investors to gain exposure to cryptocurrency prices without directly owning the tokens. This method has appealed to many traders, particularly in a newly favorable regulatory environment for digital assets in the US. Trump Family Strengthens Crypto Presence The company is preparing to go public in September via a reverse merger with Gryphon Digital Mining, which is already listed on Nasdaq under the ticker name GRYP.  Eric Trump serves as the co-founder and chief strategy officer of American Bitcoin, a rebranded entity that evolved from American Data Centers (ADC), previously a subsidiary of Dominari Holdings. American Bitcoin recently disclosed its goal of creating an efficient platform for Bitcoin accumulation, emphasizing active treasury management and long-term value creation for shareholders. The company noted that while it is exploring opportunities in specific regions, no binding commitments have yet been made. The Asian market, particularly Hong Kong, has been making significant efforts to become a hub for digital assets. Establishing treasury companies in these regions could generate new demand for cryptocurrencies, which aligns with American Bitcoin’s vision. Related Reading: BTC Slips Below $120K as Policy Shifts Rattle Markets: Is This a Setup for the Next Big Rally? In addition to American Bitcoin, the Trump family has diversified its crypto ventures. President Donald Trump recently reported earnings of $57 million from his involvement with World Liberty Financial, which announced plans to acquire $1.5 billion worth of its own WLFI tokens.  Meanwhile, the Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) intends to raise funds for a “Bitcoin treasury,” highlighting the family’s ongoing commitment to the cryptocurrency space. As of this writing, American Bitcoin holds 1,941 BTC, currently valued at approximately $227 million. Bitcoin is currently trading at $117,270, having retraced 5% from its record high of $124,100 earlier this week. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Data shows the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap has witnessed a spike, a sign that American investors may be buying at post-dip prices. Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap Has Seen A Sharp Positive Spike In a new post on X, CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap. This metric measures the difference between the Bitcoin price listed on Coinbase (USD pair) and that on Binance (USDT pair). The indicator tells us about how the buying or selling behavior differs between the userbases of the two platforms. The former is the main platform of the American investors (especially the large institutional entities), while the latter gets users from around the world. Related Reading: Dogecoin Bullish Signal: Whales Buy 2 Billion DOGE Here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap over the past week: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Coinbase Premium Gap surged to notable positive levels on Wednesday, indicating that BTC was going for more on Coinbase than Binance. In other words, Coinbase users were participating in a higher amount of buying than Binance traders. What followed the accumulation from the US-based entities was a surge in BTC’s price to a new all-time high (ATH). The cryptocurrency saw a plunge on Thursday and has continued to trade at lows today, but interestingly, the Coinbase Premium Gap has only noticed a further uptick. This could be a sign that American institutional investors are looking at the dip as a buying opportunity. Since the start of 2024, this cohort has often taken the driving seat in the market, so it only remains to be seen whether this accumulation would also lead somewhere. Another sign that could point at dip-buying occurring in the sector is the trend in the USDC Exchange Inflow, as the analyst has discussed in another X post. The “Exchange Inflow” is an on-chain indicator that tracks, as its name suggests, the amount of a given asset that investors are depositing into wallets associated with centralized exchanges. In the current case, the cryptocurrency involved is the stablecoin USDC. Generally, holders transfer their coins to exchanges when they want to sell, so an uptick in the metric for coins like Bitcoin can be a bearish sign for their prices. For stablecoins, however, the same isn’t true, as their prices are by definition stable around $1. Instead, stablecoin inflows have an effect on the volatile assets: investors use them to buy BTC and others, thus providing a bullish boost to their value. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Price Flips 200-WMA: What Happens Next? Since the BTC price plunge, the USDC Exchange Inflow has amounted to a whopping $3.88 billion. “Investors are treating it as a buy-the-dip opportunity,” notes Maartunn. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $117,800, down 1% over the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is approaching a critical juncture as its textbook ascending triangle converges with a tight trading range. Consolidation near key support and resistance levels sets the stage for a potential breakout or breakdown, making the next moves crucial for market momentum. Ascending Triangle Signals Strength Alpha Crypto Signal, in a recent post, highlighted that Bitcoin is currently shaping a textbook ascending triangle pattern on the daily chart — a well-recognized bullish continuation setup. The analyst explained that price action is consolidating just under the horizontal resistance zone at $122,500, while a series of higher lows continues to form along the rising trendline, signaling strong underlying demand. Related Reading: Bull Case For Bitcoin At $300,000 Triggers After Reaching Critical Level The analyst emphasized that as long as BTC holds above the 9 EMA at $118,738 and respects the ascending triangle’s support line, the overall bias remains bullish. These levels are crucial in maintaining the pattern’s structure, and a break below them could shift sentiment in favor of the bears. The persistence of higher lows indicates that buyers are consistently stepping in, preventing significant pullbacks, as indicated on the chart. In conclusion, Alpha Crypto Signal stated that a clean break above the $122,500 resistance, backed by strong volume, could open the door for BTC to push toward a new all-time high. Such a move is likely to confirm the ascending triangle breakout and potentially trigger the next major bullish wave in the market. Bitcoin Stuck Between $112,592 And $123,334 In an X post, X_Crypto, after examining Bitcoin’s action in a 4-hour timeframe, revealed that the flagship asset is currently trading within a defined range between $112,592 and $123,334, as highlighted on the chart. Meanwhile, the price is hovering around $119,106, with local support at $117,445 and the nearest resistance set at $123,334. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Wobbles Below Resistance – Could a Fresh Drop Follow? The analyst noted that above the current range, $124,576 stands out as a key resistance zone. If this level is breached, the next upside target would be $127,272, which could serve as a profit-taking point in a bullish scenario. These levels will be critical in determining the strength of any upward continuation. On the downside, X_Crypto pointed out that a break below $117,445 could open the way for a drop toward $112,592 — the lower boundary of the range and a strong support zone where buyers are likely to step in. This area, the writer stressed, will be pivotal for defending the broader bullish structure. Lastly, indicators on the lower timeframes, as mentioned by X_Crypto, are showing local oversold conditions, hinting at a potential short-term bounce. However, the analyst cautioned that without sustained consolidation above $119,106, selling pressure could persist, limiting any meaningful upside momentum. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin (BTC) staged a mild rebound from yesterday’s inflation-driven drop to $117,180, climbing back toward $119,000 at the time of writing. A declining leverage ratio suggests the top cryptocurrency’s bullish momentum could persist, keeping it in the running for a new all-time high (ATH) in the near term. Bitcoin Leverage Ratio Falls, Bulls Rejoice According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, Bitcoin’s leverage ratio across all cryptocurrency exchanges has sharply declined from its late-July and early-August peak of 0.27. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Turn To ‘Smart DCA’ As Market Trades Below On-Chain Fair Value Of $117,700 Notably, the ratio dropped to 0.25 in early August before a modest rebound. In contrast, the period from May to late July saw both the price and leverage ratio climb in tandem, signaling an influx of traders opening larger positions. In contrast, this time leverage has fallen without a comparable drop in price – a sign that risk has eased since the recent uptrend. Arab Chain notes that this may be the result of high-risk positions being liquidated or traders exiting the market amid volatility. With BTC holding around $119,000, the lower leverage ratio is a bullish sign, suggesting that the latest price gains are fueled more by genuine liquidity than speculative excess. A continued decline in leverage could further reduce the likelihood of a sharp correction. Conversely, a sudden spike in leverage alongside a price rally would raise the risk of a pullback. The analyst added: If leverage remains at moderate or low levels while the price remains stable, this could provide a stable base for a new uptrend. An estimated leverage ratio (ELR) holding between 0.24–0.25, accompanied by a gradual price break above 120K, could indicate a spot-supported upside and a possible extension toward the July highs, with moderate funding and slowly rising open interest. However, a quick jump in the leverage ratio above 0.27 before or during a test of $120,000–$124,000 could signal high liquidation risk and the potential for a sharp downward “shakeout.” On-Chain Data Points To Potential Selling Pressure While lower leverage is encouraging for Bitcoin bulls, on-chain data – particularly rising exchange reserves and whale transfers – hints at possible selling pressure ahead. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Eyes ATH With Falling Average Executed Order Size And Rising Retail Activity For instance, Binance’s BTC reserves have recently surged to 579,000, raising concerns of profit-taking after Bitcoin’s recent rally to a fresh ATH. Likewise, more BTC miners are moving their holdings to Binance, potentially preparing to sell. Adding to the caution, some analysts warn of a possible pullback to $110,000 to fill outstanding fair value gaps. At press time, BTC trades at $118,672, down 0.1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s record-breaking rally hit a pause this week as shifting U.S. policy signals triggered a sharp pullback. After surging to an all-time high of $124,457 on August 13, BTC plunged as low as $117,477 on Friday morning before stabilizing around $119,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Act Is Still America’s Playbook, Clarifies Senator Lummis The 5% drop followed U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s comments ruling out additional government Bitcoin purchases for strategic reserves, sparking $1 billion in leveraged liquidations. Despite the correction, on-chain data suggests the market may be setting up for another leg higher. Exchange netflows have dipped to levels historically seen before major bull runs in 2017 and 2021, signaling reduced selling pressure from long-term holders. Short-Term Bitcoin (BTC) Holders Show Strength Amid Volatility One of the most striking trends has been the resilience of short-term holders (STHs), defined as addresses holding Bitcoin (BTC) for 155 days or less. Instead of selling into the rally, STHs have shifted toward accumulation, as reflected in the rebound of the STH Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) above the neutral line. This indicates that coins moved by STHs are being sold at a profit, yet without triggering large-scale profit-taking. Market analysts view this conviction as a stabilizing force that could help absorb selling pressure and support higher prices in the coming weeks. BTC's price breaks below $120,000 on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview  Derivatives Market Points to Aggressive Buying The derivatives market has also flashed bullish signals. Over the past 24 hours, BTC recorded $24.28 million in short liquidations versus $17.16 million in long liquidations, alongside a 65% surge in trading volume to $149.47 billion. Options volume soared 128% to $9.43 billion, while the taker buy/sell ratio hit a monthly high of 1.16, a sign that buyers are aggressively absorbing supply. Positive funding rates further indicate traders’ willingness to pay premiums to hold long positions, suggesting confidence without excessive leverage risk. The NVT Golden Cross, a valuation-to-transaction metric, has dropped sharply, a pattern that has historically preceded strong rallies. Related Reading: Bitcoin Pulls Back Below $120K After New ATH as Whale Ratio Hits Risk Levels With resistance at $122,190 and support near $115,892, market watchers say a breakout above the former could trigger a retest of $124,457. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from

Bitcoin is once again at a pivotal moment, facing heavy resistance after setting a new all-time high around $124,000 yesterday. The milestone sparked excitement among bulls, but also renewed caution among analysts who warn that slowing momentum could signal a potential market cycle top. Some see the recent hesitation as a sign that buyers may be losing steam at these elevated levels. Related Reading: TRON Long-Term Holders See Massive Gains As TRX Pushes Toward Multi-Year Highs Despite the growing bearish speculation, on-chain data from CryptoQuant offers a more optimistic perspective. The Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR-7d) has climbed to 1.04 with Bitcoin trading near $119,000. This reading means that, on average, short-term holders are selling their coins at a profit — yet the market is successfully absorbing this selling pressure without triggering a sharp correction. Historically, maintaining SOPR above the 1.00–1.02 range, with pullbacks to unity quickly bought up, has supported continued uptrends. While the current amplitude is still below the overheated peaks of past cycles, the data suggests that profit-taking remains moderate. The coming days will be crucial in determining whether BTC can overcome its current resistance zone or if it will face a deeper retracement before attempting another push higher. Moderate Selling Pressure Hits Bitcoin According to top analyst Axel Adler, Bitcoin’s Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR-7d) remains in a healthy range, with amplitude still moderate and well below the peaks of 1.06–1.09 seen in previous bullish waves. This indicates that selling pressure from short-term holders is not extreme, even as BTC trades near its all-time highs. Adler notes that the bullish scenario hinges on maintaining the SOPR-7d above 1.00–1.02, as values above unity mean that short-term holders are, on average, selling at a profit — and the market is absorbing that supply without triggering a larger sell-off. Ideally, brief pullbacks toward 1.00 should be met with strong buying interest, as quick rebounds from unity historically confirm robust demand. However, the analyst cautions that if SOPR dips below 1.0 and stays there, it would signal weakening demand. This shift would increase the probability of a deeper market correction, as it implies that coins are being sold at a loss and buyers are not stepping in aggressively enough to absorb them. The coming days will be pivotal for Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. Many analysts see BTC pushing decisively above $125,000 as the next major breakout level. Others, however, remain cautious, expecting the market to face a sharp retracement before resuming its upward trend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Volatility Hits 2-Year Low As 30-Day Range Tightens Bitcoin Tests Resistance After Sharp Rejection from New Highs Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the cryptocurrency recently tested a new all-time high near $124,000 before facing swift rejection, pulling back to current levels around $118,777. This drop marks a failure to sustain momentum above the crucial $123,217 resistance zone, highlighted in yellow on the chart. Despite the rejection, BTC remains well-supported above the 50-day moving average (blue), currently near $115,194. This level has consistently acted as a dynamic support during the 2025 uptrend. The 100-day MA (green) at $110,456 and the 200-day MA (red) at $100,144 remain far below, underscoring the strength of the broader bullish structure. Related Reading: Ethereum 30-Day Netflow Average Deepens Negative: Buyers Dominate Market The consolidation below resistance reflects a market pausing to digest recent gains. For bulls, reclaiming $123,217 and closing above $124,000 would signal renewed momentum and could open the path toward $125,000 and beyond. A break below the 50-day MA could trigger a deeper pullback, with the 100-day MA as the next support. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Capriole founder Charles Edwards argues that Bitcoin’s famous four-year boom-and-bust pattern has effectively ended—not because markets have matured into a placid equilibrium, but because the engine that once forced 80–90% drawdowns has been dismantled by Bitcoin’s own monetary design. The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Dead In his Update #66 newsletter published on August 15, 2025, Edwards writes that since the April 2024 halving, Bitcoin’s annual supply growth has fallen to roughly 0.8%, “less than half of Gold’s 1.5–3%,” adding that this shift “made Bitcoin the hardest asset known to man, with look-ahead certainty.” With miners’ new-issuance supply now a rounding error compared with aggregate demand, the dramatic, miner-driven busts of prior cycles look increasingly like artifacts of an earlier era. “In short – the primary driving force behind Bitcoin cycle 80-90% drawdowns historically is dead.” Edwards does not deny that cycles exist. He reframes their causes. Reflexive investor behavior, macro liquidity, on-chain valuation extremes, and derivatives-market “euphoria” can still combine to produce sizable drawdowns. But if the halving calendar no longer dictates those inflection points, investors must recalibrate the signals they monitor and the timelines on which they expect risk to crystalize. Related Reading: Q4 Will Decide If The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Dead: Analyst On reflexivity, he cautions that belief in the four-year script can itself become a price driver. If “enough Bitcoiners believe in the 4 year cycle… they will structure their investing activities around it,” he notes, invoking George Soros’s notion that market narratives feed back into fundamentals. That self-fulfilling element can still trigger “sizeable drawdowns,” even if miners are no longer the marginal price-setters. Macro liquidity, in Edwards’s framework, remains decisive. He tracks a “Net Liquidity” gauge—the year-over-year growth in global broad money minus the cost of debt (proxied by US 10-year Treasury yields)—to distinguish genuinely expansive regimes from nominal money growth that is offset by higher rates. Historically, “All of Bitcoin’s historic bear markets have occurred while this metric was declining… with the depths… while this metric was less than zero,” he writes, whereas “All of Bitcoin’s major bull runs have occurred in positive Net Liquidity environments.” As of mid-August, he characterizes conditions as constructive: “We are currently in a positive liquidity environment and the Fed is now forecast to cut rates 3 times in the remainder of 2025.” On-Chain Data Is Still Supportive If liquidity sets the tide, euphoria marks the froth. Edwards points to established on-chain gauges—MVRV, NVT, Energy Value—that have historically flashed red at cycle peaks. Those indicators, he says, are not yet there: “In 2025 we still see no signs of onchain Euphoria. Bitcoin today is appreciating in a steady, relatively sustainable way versus historic cycles.” A chart of MVRV Z-Score “shows we are nowhere near the price euphoria of historic Bitcoin tops.” By contrast, his derivatives composite—the “Heater,” which aggregates positioning and leverage across perps, futures, and options—has been hot enough to warrant short-term caution. “The heat is on… Of all the metrics we will look at here, this one is telling us that the market locally has overheated near all time highs this week.” In his telling, elevated Heater readings can cap near-term upside unless they persist for months alongside rising open interest—conditions more consistent with a major top. One metric, however, eclipses the rest in 2025–26: institutional absorption of new supply. “Today, 150+ public companies and ETFs are buying over 500% of Bitcoin’s daily supply creation from mining,” Edwards writes. “When demand outruns supply like this, Bitcoin has historically surged over the coming months. Every time this has happened in Bitcoin’s history (5 occurrences), price has shot up by 135% on average.” He emphasizes that the current, extended period of high multiples on this measure is “good news for Bitcoin,” while conceding the obvious caveat: no one can know how long such conditions will last. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Price Flips 200-WMA: What Happens Next? Because institutional demand can flip to supply, Edwards details a “treasury company early warning system.” He highlights four watch-items that his team tracks “24/7 for cycle risk management and positioning purposes”: a Treasury Buy-Sell Ratio that, if falling, “suggests growing selling by the 150+ companies”; a Treasury CVD whose flattening or lurch into a “red zone” is “risk off”; the percentage of Coinbase volume that is net buying; and a Treasury Company Seller Count that, on spikes, has historically preceded pressure. Layered on top is balance-sheet fragility. The more treasuries lever up to accumulate Bitcoin, the more a drawdown can cascade through forced deleveraging. “Total Debt relative to Enterprise value are key to track,” he says, adding that Capriole will publish a fresh tranche of treasury-risk metrics “next week.” Quantum Computers Vs. Bitcoin Edwards then makes an argument many Bitcoin investors will find uncomfortable: quantum computing is both an attractive return opportunity and Bitcoin’s most concrete long-term tail risk. Capriole, he says, expects “the asset class will outperform Bitcoin by circa 50% p.a. over the next 5–10 years,” citing today’s small market capitalizations against a “$2T+” addressable market. At the same time, “in the long-term (without change) QC is existential to Bitcoin,” with a worst-case window of “3–6 years” to break the cryptography that secures wallets and transactions. He notes that China “is spending 5X more on QC than the US” and recently “presented a QC machine a million times more powerful than Google’s,” arguing that the pace of breakthroughs, “with… innovations occurring every quarter,” suggests “this technology will mature sooner than many think. Just like ChatGPT.” The operational challenge, even if the risk is not imminent, is the migration path. Edwards sketches back-of-the-envelope constraints: roughly 25 million Bitcoin addresses hold more than $100; on “a good day,” the network handles about 10 transactions per second. If everyone tried to rotate to quantum-resistant keys at once—and many would prudently send test transactions—it would take “3–6 months” just to push the transactions through, before even counting the time to achieve consensus on, and deploy, a preferred upgrade. “Optimistically we are looking at a 12 month lead time to move the Bitcoin network to a Quantum proof system,” he writes. He flags work by Jameson Lopp as a starting point and urges the community to “encourage action on the QC Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPS).” Capriole itself holds quantum-computing exposure both for return potential and as “a portfolio hedge should a worst case scenario eventuate.” His conclusion is clear without being complacent. “The Bitcoin miner driven cycle is largely dead.” If institutional demand holds, “there is a strong chance of a right translated cycle,” with “a significant period of price expansion still ahead of us.” But vigilance is essential. The two variables to prioritize this halving epoch, in his view, are “Net Liquidity and Institutional Buying,” while the “biggest risk to this cycle” is paradoxically the cohort that has powered it: the Bitcoin treasury companies whose balance-sheet choices can compound both upside and downside. Quantum computing, he stresses, “isn’t a risk to Bitcoin this Halving cycle,” but absent action “it certainly will be in the next one.” The prescription is not to fear cycles, but to retire the outdated ones and prepare—technically and operationally—for the cycles that remain. At press time, BTC traded at $119,121. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

A morning soundbite from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent briefly rattled Bitcoin and crypto markets on Thursday before a late-day clarification restored the policy baseline: the United States won’t be sellers, and “budget-neutral” options to grow the country’s bitcoin stockpile remain on the table. Senator Cynthia Lummis swiftly framed the endpoint. “America needs the BITCOIN Act,” she wrote, calling the legislation the operative blueprint for expanding a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve without tapping taxpayers. In a Fox Business hit that ricocheted across X, Bessent said the government is “not going to be buying” additional bitcoin and added, “We’re going to stop selling that,” referencing a reserve he valued between $15 billion and $20 billion. Markets faded into the statement; by mid-day, bitcoin was off roughly 3.7%. The point that stuck—“we’re not going to be buying”—was clipped and shared widely, but it was only half the story. Related Reading: Q4 Will Decide If The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle Is Dead: Analyst Hours later, Bessent posted a clarifying note. “Bitcoin that has been finally forfeited to the federal government will be the foundation of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve that President Trump established in his March Executive Order,” he wrote. “In addition, Treasury is committed to exploring budget-neutral pathways to acquire more Bitcoin to expand the reserve, and to execute on the President’s promise to make the United States the ‘Bitcoin superpower of the world.’” The course correction aligned his comments with the administration’s March directive and the policy discussion that has matured since. Bitcoin Act Is Still The Way Forward Lummis, chair of the Senate Banking Subcommittee on Digital Assets, seized the moment to underline the fiscal constraint. “Secretary Scott Bessent is right: a budget-neutral path to building SBR is the way. We cannot save our country from $37T debt by purchasing more bitcoin, but we can revalue gold reserves to today’s prices & transfer the increase in value to build SBR. America needs the BITCOIN Act.” In a separate reply to Bessent, she added: “I have a ₿ill for that.” Her posts also flagged ongoing work “with Scott Bessent & Howard Lutnick to identify budget-neutral ways to continue growing our bitcoin reserve & outpacing adversaries in the race.” The legal and administrative scaffolding for a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve was set five months ago. On March 6, President Trump signed an executive order creating the SBR and a separate US Digital Asset Stockpile, directing agencies to capitalize the reserve with Bitcoin “finally forfeited” to the government and to develop budget-neutral strategies for further acquisition. Related Reading: Binance Bitcoin Reserves Surge To 579,000 BTC – Signal Of Profit-Taking Or Bullish Liquidity? Lummis’s “BITCOIN Act” would take that framework from executive policy to statute and goes considerably further. The latest text lays out a five-year purchase program authorizing up to 200,000 BTC per year—1,000,000 BTC in total—paired with a 20-year minimum holding period and a quarterly, public cryptographic proof-of-reserves regime. Where Bessent’s remarks intersect—and diverge—with that legislative ambition is gold. In March, he downplayed a formal revaluation of US gold as a credible budget lever, even as the broader policy conversation around the asset side of the federal balance sheet intensified. On Thursday, Bessent told Fox Business that a gold revaluation is “unlikely.” Lummis, by contrast, is explicitly proposing to mark gold to market in order to seed the SBR without new borrowing—an idea that has migrated from think-piece fodder to bill text but still faces macro, legal, and central-bank-independence scrutiny. The bottom line is that Thursday did not mark a policy reversal so much as a restatement of sequencing. The executive branch will build the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve first with finally forfeited coins and, per Bessent’s clarification, is actively evaluating budget-neutral ways to expand it. At press time, BTC traded at $118,751. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin briefly set a new all-time high above $124,000 earlier today before experiencing a sharp retracement that brought the asset back below the $120,000 level. As of press time, BTC is trading at $118,336, representing a weekly loss of 1.9% and a 4.5% decline from its peak. The price shift comes amid notable on-chain developments that have caught the attention of market analysts. According to CryptoQuant contributor CryptoOnchain, the Bitcoin Exchange Whale Ratio across all exchanges has risen above 0.50, a level historically associated with higher short-term volatility. This ratio measures the proportion of BTC inflows to exchanges originating from large holders, often signaling potential market-moving activity. Despite this, aggregated data across all exchanges shows negative net flows, meaning more BTC is leaving exchanges than entering, which typically aligns with accumulation phases. Related Reading: Bitcoin Options Traders Don’t Expect Volatility: Contrarian Signal Brewing? Bitcoin Binance Activity Diverges From Broader Market Trends While overall exchange flows suggest accumulation, Binance has seen a contrasting pattern. Data from CryptoOnchain shows Binance recorded its largest single-day positive net flow in the past 12 months, indicating a concentration of BTC inflows to the platform. Such divergences, when high whale ratios coincide with significant inflows to one exchange, have historically preceded both sharp sell-offs and leveraged short squeezes, depending on whether the inflows are directed toward spot selling or derivatives trading. This activity has been accompanied by a surge in Binance’s BTC spot trading volume, which reached $7 billion in a single day, according to a separate analysis by Amr Taha of CryptoQuant. The spike in volume may reflect a shift in trader positioning, potentially influenced by institutional trades or broader macroeconomic factors. Additionally, short-term holder (STH) inflows to Binance have crossed the 0.4 threshold on the Spent Output Age Bands metric, a level often associated with retail-driven sell activity. Historically, retail participants have tended to sell into strength during bullish market phases, providing liquidity for more sophisticated traders. Whale Behavior Points to Lower Immediate Selling Pressure In contrast to heightened retail activity, the inflows from large holders, categorized as whales (1,000–10,000 BTC) and humpbacks, remain relatively low. Current whale inflows stand at 1,170 BTC, significantly below the 14,610 BTC recorded on July 19, which coincided with a notable price drop. The absence of similar large-scale selling now suggests a reduction in immediate downside risk, though market conditions remain dependent on other factors such as derivatives positioning and macroeconomic developments. The interaction between whale behavior, retail participation, and exchange-specific flows highlights the current complexity of Bitcoin’s market structure. While the broader trend of net outflows from exchanges supports a longer-term bullish outlook, the elevated whale ratio and concentrated inflows to Binance increase the likelihood of short-term volatility. Analysts recommend close monitoring of Binance’s order book, open interest, and funding rates over the coming sessions to better understand potential price direction. With Bitcoin hovering just below the $120,000 mark, the next few trading days will be critical in determining whether the market stabilizes or sees further corrective moves. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Bitcoin’s fresh record above $124,000 on Thursday set the stage for a stark test of one of oldest heuristics, according to Joe Consorti, Head of Growth at Theya. In a video published today, August 14, Consorti argued that the fourth quarter will reveal whether the market’s long-observed four-year halving cycle still governs price behavior—or whether the asset has entered a new regime shaped by deep, patient pools of traditional finance capital. “Bitcoin just hit a brand new all-time high of more than $123,700,” he said at the top of the segment. “It’s since corrected slightly…but we’re still pushing higher.” That print aligns with Wednesday’s tape across major dashboards: Bitcoin price topped above $124,4000 today as macro traders leaned into a prospective Fed easing path and risk sentiment firmed. Q4 Could Bury The 4-Year Bitcoin Cycle For Good Consorti framed the breakout against a month-long tug-of-war around $118,000–$120,000, describing how “longs and shorts have been fighting back and forth for market control,” with bulls “slowly but surely” grinding out the upper hand. He tied the setup to the seasonal transition out of the “summer doldrums,” and to a policy backdrop he expects to turn supportive: “As Wall Street returns from vacation… the Fed is positioned for its first maintenance rate cut in a year as the US economy rebounds.” Futures markets have increasingly priced a September cut, a shift that has underpinned risk assets broadly alongside dollar softness. The heart of Consorti’s thesis is that this expansion is structurally different. “This is also Bitcoin’s longest bull market ever… at 21 months compared to 13 months,” he said, using that duration to pose the key dilemma: “That begs the question, is the 4-year cycle dead? Well, at the very least, the 4-year cycle will be tested in Q4 of this year.” Related Reading: The Grand Bitcoin Roadmap: Crypto Expert Says $160,000 Still In The Works He pointed viewers to analysis from on-chain researcher James Check (Checkmate) at CheckOnChain. “If we see a massive run-up and blow-off top at 4-year end, the theory remains intact… but if not, Bitcoin’s behavior through market cycles has probably changed forever.” Check, for his part, has recently written that “if there was ever a time for the 4yr Bitcoin halving cycle to break, this market environment is likely it,” underscoring how veteran on-chain analysts are also bracing for a pattern shift. What’s changed, in Consorti’s view, is the buyer base. “Traditional finance capital pools have entered the picture, and they play by different rules.” He highlighted spot Bitcoin ETFs as the prime conduit: “These are purchased by retirees, pension funds, and endowments… These are allocators with no near-term intention of selling. They plan to hold it for years, even decades, and only gradually shave down positions over time.” To illustrate, he cited Harvard University’s endowment: “Their endowment purchased 1.9 million shares of iShares Bitcoin Trust, valued at $116.7 million in Q2.” That position—disclosed in a recent 13F—impressively demonstrates the institutional adoption of BlackRock’s IBIT. Related Reading: Two Forces Can Launch Bitcoin To $1 Million, Says Mike Novogratz Consorti extended the long-horizon argument to treasury adopters: “These are firms holding Bitcoin on their balance sheets with no plan to sell. Ever… the serious players… are permanent fixtures in the market.” The implication, he said, is a visible evolution in market structure and tempo: “Instead of the violent booms and busts of earlier cycles, we’re seeing something new, which is a consistent uptrend punctuated by periods of consolidation, then rapid expansion, then consolidation again.” As supply becomes increasingly lodged with long-duration holders and the asset’s capital base thickens, “volatility naturally compresses, but upside doesn’t vanish. It just plays out in longer arcs, with bigger dollar moves and a slower tempo.” He added that this maturation is already noticeable as Bitcoin grows “beyond its current $2.4 trillion market cap,” even as he acknowledged that the fourth quarter will be the crucible for the cycle debate. “In Q4, that dynamic could be on full display,” Consorti concluded. A “mix of easing financial conditions, renewed institutional inflows post-summer, and persistent structural demand from ETFs, corporates, and high net worth allocators could set the stage for another leg higher and a banner Q4.” But his sign-off was deliberately non-deterministic: “Only after the fourth quarter of this year will we truly know whether or not the four-year cycle is truly dead and buried… We’ll just have to wait and see.” At press time, BTC traded at $119,068. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin Realized Price has surged above the asset’s 200-week moving average (MA). Here’s what could happen next, according to history. Bitcoin Realized Price Has Overtaken 200-WMA For First Time This Cycle As pointed out by analyst James Van Straten in a new post on X, the Bitcoin Realized Price and 200-week MA have seen a crossover. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that, in short, keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor or address on the BTC network. Related Reading: Bitcoin Options Traders Don’t Expect Volatility: Contrarian Signal Brewing? When the value of this metric is higher than the spot price, it means the holders as a whole are in a state of net unrealized profit. On the other hand, it being under BTC’s value suggests the average investor is underwater. The 200-week MA, the other metric shared by the analyst, is a technical analysis (TA) pricing model that averages BTC’s closing price over the last 200 weeks. Since 200 weeks roughly equal four years, this indicator is used to gauge BTC’s trend shifts over a classic four-year cycle. Now, here is the chart shared by Van Straten that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price and 200-week MA over the past decade: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Price has gone up over the past year, a natural result of BTC’s spot price following an uptrend. As investors trade at the higher prices, they reprice the cost basis of their coins higher as well, thus raising the market average. After the latest increase in the indicator, its value has surged above the 200-week MA. The last time that the former was higher than the latter was in the previous cycle. Back then, the crossover occurred in 2020, and the orientation was maintained until 2022. Interestingly, the timing of the crossover coincided with the start of that cycle’s bull run. In the 2017 cycle, no crossover preceded the bull run as the Realized Price never dipped under the 200-week MA, but a retest did occur, which sent the metric flying up alongside the spot price. “When the uptrend begins, so does the bull market,” notes the analyst. It now remains to be seen whether something similar as in the past would occur, with the Bitcoin Realized Price seeing a sustained surge above the 200-week MA. Related Reading: Ethereum Retail Mood Still Bearish: Perfect Setup For ATH Break? Speaking of bullish signals, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has revealed that institutional buying represented 75% of Coinbase volume recently. Edwards has noticed an interesting pattern related to this metric. “All readings above 75% have seen higher prices one week later,” explains the analyst. BTC Price Bitcoin set a new all-time high above $124,000 on Wednesday, but the coin has plunged since then as its price is back at $118,300. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, charts from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a new all-time high of $124,400 on early Thursday, fueled by strong institutional demand, bullish technicals, and favorable U.S. policy shifts. The move pushed the overall crypto market cap to a record $4.18 trillion. Related Reading: Ripple CTO Comments On Rising XRP Ledger Competition From Fintechs The rally followed a decisive breakout above key technical levels, including the 7-day SMA at $118,892 and the 200-day EMA at $101,566. The MACD histogram widened to its most bullish reading since July 2025, while the RSI14 at 68.5 suggests there’s still room before hitting overbought conditions. Fibonacci projections now place BTC’s next major resistance near $126,870. However, after briefly surpassing $124K, Bitcoin retraced to around $121,800, prompting traders to ask whether this is simply consolidation before the next surge. Institutional Demand and Policy Support Driving Momentum Corporate and institutional accumulation remains a major driver. SpaceX continues to hold 8,285 BTC worth over $1 billion, while Thumzup Media recently announced a $50 million crypto treasury. These moves mirror Metaplanet’s purchase of 2,205 BTC earlier this week. Political tailwinds are also in play. U.S. President Donald Trump’s administration has rolled back banking restrictions on crypto firms and signed legislation opening retirement accounts to digital asset investments. The GENIUS Act, introducing the country’s first federal stablecoin framework, has further boosted market confidence. ETF inflows have accelerated, with U.S.-listed Bitcoin ETFs pulling in over $1 billion in net weekly inflows. Total ETF holdings now stand at $154 billion, signaling deep institutional interest. BTC's price records some losses after a major spike on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview  Bitcoin (BTC) Pundits Eye $150K If Momentum Holds Despite a notable July sell-off by long-term holders, the largest since 2021, market analysts see the pullback as a healthy pause. Vikram Subburaj, CEO of Giottus Crypto Platform, views $120K as a new “sturdy floor” and $126K as the breakout point that could open the path toward $150,000. “With strong macro tailwinds, robust ETF demand, and rising corporate adoption, every dip may be viewed as a buying opportunity rather than a reversal signal,” noted Himanshu Maradiya, Chairman of CIFDAQ. Related Reading: Ethereum CME Gap Threatens Recovery, Why A Crash To $4,080 Is Possible If bullish sentiment persists, Bitcoin could soon challenge higher psychological levels, making this latest pullback less a warning sign and more a pit stop before the next leg up. Cover image from ChatGPT, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview

Bitcoin (BTC) created a fresh all-time high (ATH) yesterday, touching $124,474 on Binance before stabilizing around $118,000 at the time of writing. Meanwhile, BTC reserves on Binance have surged significantly, raising concerns about a potential price correction. Bitcoin Reserves Spike On Binance: Time To Worry? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, Binance’s Bitcoin reserves have seen a sharp increase in recent months. The exchange holds the largest BTC reserves, supported by its high liquidity and the largest trading volume in the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Eyes ATH With Falling Average Executed Order Size And Rising Retail Activity From the end of July until today, Binance-based BTC reserves have reversed a previous downtrend, climbing to 579,000 BTC. Arab Chain shared the following chart illustrating how BTC reserves – after a period of scarcity – have reversed course and now signal a short-term warning. Notably, BTC reserves on Binance had previously declined by approximately 50,000 to 60,000 BTC, a 9% to 10% drop from the 2024 peak to the July 2025 low. Recently, reserves recovered slightly, rising by 25,000 to 30,000 BTC, an increase of 5% to 6%. Despite this recovery, BTC reserves remain well below the peaks of late 2024, indicating that structural scarcity has not yet fully dissipated. Arab Chain highlighted two potential reasons for the recent spike in reserves. First, profit-taking or short-term supply could increase when traders – including whales and market makers – deposit BTC on exchanges. They may do this to sell part of their holdings or to use the digital asset as collateral in derivatives markets. Second, a liquidity boost for BTC can occur when growing demand leads to the replenishment of liquidity pools. Market makers may also rebalance their portfolios to help smooth price spreads. The analyst concluded: In practice, if daily or weekly reserve increases persist alongside high positive funding rates and rising open interest, the likelihood of a short-term correction grows. However, if reserves stabilize or decline quickly, this would suggest renewed scarcity and a continuation of the uptrend. BTC Rally Losing Momentum? BTC pulled back from its recent ATH, trading slightly above $118,000 at the time of writing, signaling a short-term price correction. Some analysts warn that this might indicate the flagship cryptocurrency is losing momentum. Related Reading: Two Forces Can Launch Bitcoin To $1 Million, Says Mike Novogratz In addition to rising exchange reserves, the Binance whale-to-exchange flow metric also points to increased selling pressure. The spike in Binance miner distributions reinforces this signal. That said, some analysts remain cautiously optimistic. Axel Adler notes that BTC’s current market structure makes a severe price correction unlikely. At press time, BTC trades at $118,464, down 0.8% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com