THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

Bitcoin has been showing notable correlation to the stock equities recently, but data shows Ethereum is charting a more independent path. Bitcoin & Ethereum Showing Different Degrees Of Correlation To Other Assets In a post on X, the institutional DeFi solutions provider Sentora (previously IntoTheBlock) has talked about how the latest Correlation Matrix has looked between the two largest cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and Ethereum, and traditional markets. The “Correlation Matrix” here refers to an indicator that tells us how closely tied together the prices of two given assets currently are. When the value of this metric is positive, it means the assets are reacting to moves in each other by moving in the same direction to some degree. The closer the metric is to 1, the stronger the relationship. Related Reading: Bitcoin & Stablecoin Reserves Diverge On Binance: Liquidity Explosion Brewing? On the other hand, the indicator being under the zero mark implies there is a negative correlation between the two prices. That is, they are moving in opposite directions. For this side of the scale, the extreme point is -1. Naturally, the Correlation Matrix showing a value exactly equal to zero suggests there is no correlation whatsoever between the assets. In statistics, the two variables are said to be ‘independent’ in this case. Now, here is the table shared by Sentora that shows how the Correlation Matrix of Bitcoin and Ethereum stands with respect to some traditional markets: As is visible above, the index that Bitcoin and Ethereum have the strongest positive correlation to is DAX. That said, the Correlation Matrix stands at 0.46 for ETH, meaning that while some correlation does exist, it’s not too intense. This isn’t the case for Bitcoin, which has the indicator sitting at 0.85, indicating its price is pretty in tandem with DAX. Likewise, BTC has a notable correlation to other stock market indices, with a metric value of 0.7, 0.68, and 0.69 for the Russel 2000, S&P 500, and Dow Jones Industrial Average, respectively. In contrast, Ethereum is almost fully independent from these indices, with the indicator standing quite close to zero for each of them. For US Dollar Index and VIX Index, the last two markets listed in the table, the Correlation Matrix is inside the negative zone for Bitcoin. This means that the digital asset has actively been moving against these indices. Related Reading: Ethereum ETF Inflows Hit 8-Week Streak—Institutions Still Buying “Right now, the spotlight is on the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY): if geopolitical and macro tensions drag the dollar lower, that backdrop could create room for another leg higher in BTC,” notes the analytics firm. Just like with the stocks, Ethereum is displaying little correlation to DXY and VIX, further reinforcing that the cryptocurrency has been following a trajectory of its own recently. BTC Price Bitcoin is mounting another bullish push as its price surges to $109,400, but it remains to be seen whether its fate will be any different from the weekend move. Featured image from Dall-E, IntoTheBlock.com, chart from TradingView.com

On Wednesday afternoon, Bitcoin (BTC) surged to a remarkable all-time high (ATH) of $112,022, breaking free from its previous consolidation phase and lower resistance levels.  Bitcoin Rally Faces Critical Test John Glover, the chief investment officer at crypto lending platform Ledn and a former managing director at Barclays Investment Bank, noted that the recent rally appears to be a retest of the previous all-time high set on May 22, which encountered selling pressure.  As some investors opted to take profits, notable publicly traded companies, including Trump Media & Technology Group and GameStop, have announced their intentions to purchase Bitcoin to bolster their treasuries.  Related Reading: Analyst Predicts 50% “Moonshot” For XRP Price If This Line Breaks Glover emphasized that the competition among these companies to accumulate Bitcoin could significantly impact market dynamics, given that the cryptocurrency’s popularity among publicly traded companies appears to be growing. However, the sustainability of Bitcoin’s rally largely hinges on macroeconomic conditions and developments in trade negotiations. Sid Powell, CEO of crypto asset-management firm Maple, highlighted that any setbacks in trade discussions before President Donald Trump’s August 1 deadline could pose challenges for Bitcoin’s price movement.  Conversely, if trade negotiations progress and inflation continues to ease, the Federal Reserve (Fed) might consider cutting interest rates, which could further support Bitcoin’s upward trajectory. Scenarios For A Potential Breakout Toward $130,000 Market expert Doctor Profit recently took to social media, declaring that Bitcoin’s rally is just beginning. He confidently stated, “THE PARTY IS NOT OVER YET,” predicting a potential new all-time high soon.  His analysis indicates a target range of $120,000 to $130,000 for this cycle. According to Doctor Profit, two potential scenarios could pave the way for this breakout.  The first involves Bitcoin reaching the $113,000 to $114,000 range, followed by a correction to the $92,000 to $93,000 level, which aligns with a major liquidity pool and the CME gap. A rebound from this lower range could set the stage for a rapid ascent toward the $120,000 mark. Related Reading: Pundit Says XRP’s Rise To $1,000 Will Happen A Lot Sooner Than Anticipated The second, more aggressive scenario suggests that Bitcoin could break through the $113,000 to $114,000 barrier and continue its upward momentum without revisiting lower liquidity levels.  In either case, the $113,000 to $114,000 range is critical, as the market’s reaction to this level will significantly influence the speed and direction of Bitcoin’s next leg. When writing, BTC has retraced back toward $111,422, attempting to make this level its new support floor for further price appreciation.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

A new analysis shows that Bitcoin (BTC) may be on the verge of a calculated price crash that could take it below $107,000 before igniting the next bullish rally. The cryptocurrency market structure currently reflects a short-term bearish correction within a broader bullish trend, supporting the likelihood of a potential surge to new all-time highs soon.  Bitcoin Prepares For Final Dip Below $107,000 Crypto market expert, Tehi Thomas, in a recent TradingView post, suggested that Bitcoin’s current structure may be entering its final corrective phase. The analyst points to a potential price crash below the $107,000 level as part of a strategic play by smart money.  Related Reading: Bitcoin To Repeat Parabolic Phase From 2017 And 2021? Here’s The Target The analyst shared a chart showing Bitcoin forming consecutive lower highs while its price presses downwards. Across these highs, the market is also respecting a descending trendline, a pattern which often indicates short-term bearish pressure. Notably, this trendline appears to be serving as a potential trap designed to engineer a liquidity grab and discount entry.  Thomas notes that once the key zone and sell-side liquidity area around $107,800 is taken, Bitcoin’s price is expected to dip into a nearby Fair Value Gap (FVG), extending down to the $106,500-$106,200 region. This FVG overlaps with critical Fibonacci levels, particularly the 0.786 retracement near $106,200, strengthening the confluence for a potential reversal point.  Thomas has highlighted this $106,200 level as a high-probability buy zone, where institutions may re-enter the market. Notably, the analyst’s anticipated price correction for Bitcoin is not seen as a breakdown of structure or market failure, but rather a calculated liquidity grab to fill inefficiencies left from the previous lag. As long as the price respects the $106,000 range and displays bullish order flow afterward, its projected correction is expected to complete the accumulation phase.  All-Time Highs In Sight After Key Reversal Following Bitcoin’s projected sweep and fill of the FVG, the cryptocurrency is expected to form a reversal structure that could kick off the next major rally. Despite the projected crash below $107,000, Thomas asserts that Bitcoin’s overall macro trend remains bullish. Moreover, this short-term pullback is considered a setup for a much larger move toward a new all-time high. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To See 52% Increase To $166,000, Analyst Reveals Tight Timeline Thomas’s chart marks the $110,500 zone as the final magnet and ATH target, with a significant layer of untapped liquidity above it. The analyst’s thesis is that once the sell-side pressure is exhausted and displacement confirms the shift in direction, Bitcoin could once again regain bullish momentum.  Furthermore, the TradingView expert has pointed out that the FVG near $106,200 acts as both a liquidity magnet and a springboard, set to launch the flagship cryptocurrency into price discovery mode once again. Currently, Bitcoin is trading at $108,744, meaning a potential surge to the projected ATH level at $110,500 will represent a 1.61% increase.  Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

With one week already gone in the month of July, Ethereum has already begun to perform better than Bitcoin. While the gap is still very close, the outperformance of Ethereum over Bitcoin for only the second time this year could signal the entrance of better things for the altcoin market. If this continues, then an altcoin season might be on the horizon, as historical data shows it always begins with ETH outperforming BTC. So, let’s take a look at how both assets have been performing. Ethereum Barrels Ahead Of Bitcoin In July So far, in the month of July, the Ethereum price has been putting in more green candles, suggesting that bulls are making their move again. This has led to a small outperformance when compared to the Bitcoin price over this time period and could be the signal that altcoin season could be starting soon. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Price Could See 180% Explosion As This Indicator Flashes Bullish Divergence Data from the CryptoRank website shows that Ethereum is already up more than 2.50% since the start of July. Meanwhile, the Bitcoin price, while having seen some price increases, is up only 1.20% at the time of this writing. Thus, Ethereum is already performing better in the month of July. If this outperformance continues, then this would be only the second time that the Ethereum price will be doing better than the Bitcoin price so far in 2025. The first was back in May, when the Ethereum price rallied by over 41% in one month. This was major compared to Bitcoin’s 11.1% move in that month. However, while the Bitcoin rally in the month of May saw its price reach new all-time highs, Ethereum continues to struggle and remains below its $4,800 all-time high levels. Nevertheless, Ethereum’s rally did translate to bullishness for the altcoin market as the likes of PEPE and BONK rallied by more than 100% in response to this. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Repeat Parabolic Phase From 2017 And 2021? Here’s The Target Given that Ethereum has led the altcoin season in the past, its outperformance of Bitcoin at this level remains a positive. If it continues, then the altcoin market could start to see further increases in price. And if Ethereum rises another 41% from here, it would put it right on the path to $4,000. However, the month of July has not historically been the best month for Ethereum, with an average return of +5.13%. The whole of the third quarter of the year is also a mixed bag for the altcoin, with an equal number of green and red closes over the last decade. Thus, it remains to be seen how the ETH price will perform this quarter and if it can successfully outpace Bitcoin. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain data shows the Binance Exchange Reserve has diverged between Bitcoin and the stablecoins. Here’s what this could mean for the market. Bitcoin & Stablecoin Exchange Reserves Have Decoupled On Binance In a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has talked about the latest trend in the Binance Exchange Reserve for Bitcoin and the stablecoins. The “Exchange Reserve” here refers to an on-chain metric that keeps track of the total amount of a given asset that’s sitting on the wallets attached to a centralized exchange. When the value of this metric rises, it means the holders are making net deposits of the asset to the platform. Generally, investors use exchanges when they want to participate in trading activities, so them making inflows could signal appetite for trading the coin away. Related Reading: Ethereum ETF Inflows Hit 8-Week Streak—Institutions Still Buying For cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, this is something that can naturally have a bearish impact on the price. The same, however, isn’t true in the case of the stablecoins, as they are, by definition, always stable around the same value as the fiat currency that they are pegged to. Investors usually store their capital in the form of these tokens when they want to avoid the volatility associated with assets like Bitcoin. Many of them, however, plan to eventually return back to the volatile side. Once they have decided to make the switch, they transfer their stablecoins to exchanges. When they make the swap to a coin like Bitcoin, its price naturally observes a buying boost. As such, stablecoin inflows can be bullish for the volatile cryptocurrencies. Now, here is the chart shared by the analyst that shows the trend in the Exchange Reserve of Binance for Bitcoin and the stablecoins over the last couple of years: As displayed in the above graph, the Binance Exchange Reserve for the two asset classes showed some correlation in 2024. But by the end of the year, a shift had occurred, with the stablecoins witnessing sharp inflows and Bitcoin outflows. The two have remained decoupled in 2025 so far, although their trends no longer diverge as extremely. The stablecoin Binance exchange reserve has recently been trending sideways, while the one for Bitcoin has rapidly been moving down. Related Reading: Dogecoin Resistance Walls Ahead: Analyst Flags 3 Key Levels Thus, it would appear that there is a large amount of fiat-tied tokens on the exchange potentially waiting to be deployed into the volatile side and at the same time, investors are also pulling out BTC supply, hinting at ongoing accumulation. This could hint at bullish conditions aligning on the largest cryptocurrency exchange, but it only remains to be seen whether the setup would reflect in the Bitcoin price or not. BTC Price Bitcoin is holding steady as its price is still trading around the $108,800 level. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) has remained range-bound between $100,000 and $110,000 since May 7, aside from a few dips to as low as $98,000 in June, which were quickly followed by daily candle closes above the $100,000 level. Recent analysis reveals that BTC has withstood sustained selling pressure on Binance Derivatives throughout this period. Bitcoin Withstands Binance Derivatives Sell-Off According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor BorisVest, taker users on Binance Derivatives have consistently engaged in sell-side activity for at least the past 45 days. Notably, the Cumulative Volume Delta (CVD) has remained negative throughout this time. For the uninitiated, the CVD measures the net difference between market buy  – aggressive buying – and market sell – aggressive selling – orders over time. It helps traders identify whether buying or selling pressure is dominating, even if price remains stable. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Floor Rises Toward $100,000, Reinforcing Bullish Sentiment BorisVest noted that Binance Derivatives traders are treating each BTC bounce or rally as a selling opportunity, opening aggressive short positions via market sell orders. However, this strong sell pressure has failed to push prices lower, as BTC continues to absorb the selling activity and maintain support above $100,000. The analyst added that as long as BTC remains within its current range – between $100,000 and $110,000 – while absorbing sell pressure, the potential for upside remains intact. He explained: The CVD metric plays a crucial role here. It aggregates both taker and maker activity to provide a real-time picture of net buy/sell pressure. The fact that CVD remains in decline confirms the dominance of sell-side flow. Yet, the inability of price to drop further despite this pressure may signal that Bitcoin is being absorbed by institutional or large players in the background. That said, other analysts interpret the persistent selling pressure differently. For example, fellow CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk recently observed that new buyer demand is struggling to keep pace with the combined supply pressure from newly mined BTC and selling by long-term holders. BTC Eyeing A Breakout Ahead? Bitcoin’s resilience in the face of heavy selling on Binance Derivatives has once again sparked speculation about a potential breakout. Several additional data points suggest that BTC may be poised to move into a higher price range soon. Related Reading: Bitcoin Forming Inverse Head And Shoulders Pattern – Is $150,000 The Next Target? For instance, recent on-chain data shows that “weak hands” are offloading their BTC holdings to larger, more established investors – indicating a broader shift in sentiment favoring Bitcoin. Meanwhile, institutional interest in the asset continues to grow. Additionally, the Bitcoin Yearly Percentage Trend suggests that BTC could top out around $205,000 by the end of 2025. At press time, BTC trades at $108,589, up 0.4% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

The Bitcoin market appears to be coiling for a major move, according to prominent crypto analyst CrediBull Crypto (@CredibleCrypto), who highlighted today via X that over 80% of all Bitcoin in existence is currently being held by long-term investors—levels of supply constraint previously seen only at major inflection points in Bitcoin’s price history. Why No One’s Selling Bitcoin In his post, CrediBull noted, “The only 2 times in Bitcoin’s 15 year history that this % was higher was at 43k before a $30,000 impulse to 73k and at 58k before a $50,000 impulse to 105k+.” Drawing on this historical precedent, he concluded that the market is poised for another massive leg up: “When the majority of $BTC total circulating supply is cornered by ‘diamond hands’, price moves up aggressively at the hint of any ‘new’ demand.” With “excess” supply now redistributed to long-term holders and institutional entities such as Bitcoin treasury companies increasingly taking the lead, the analyst sees a clear signal: “The next impulse IS IMMINENT. This next one will also likely be even bigger than the last two ($50,000+). Who’s ready for 150k+ Bitcoin?” Related Reading: 2025’s Biggest Bitcoin Bull Trigger Is Still Hidden, Expert Reveals The optimism is not without a technical underpinning. In a previous post, CrediBull addressed the current market structure and his own Elliott Wave-based scenario planning: “My original count/idea shared a few days ago had us rejecting at range highs above 110k and seeing a pullback down to the BLUE zone at 102k-ish before moving sideways for a few more weeks before the next impulse begins.”However, the analyst acknowledged a significant alternative possibility: “I do still think this scenario is probable, I also recognize that there is a non-zero chance that the next impulse up has already begun (most bullish scenario depicted).” Given the price action and structure, CrediBull argued that the risk-reward profile no longer favors bearish positioning. “In either case, downside is relatively limited on Bitcoin from current levels imo and so focus should be on identifying potential long opps on Bitcoin rather than looking to short clear strength.” Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Liquidity Lifeline Just Got Cut—What You Need To Know He punctuated the point with a rhetorical jab: “Why is it now illegal to short Bitcoin? Because there is a non-zero chance that the next impulse up has already begun.” Adding a layer of technical confirmation, analyst Axel Adler Jr provided a concurrent signal from volatility metrics. Adler pointed to a significant Bollinger Bands squeeze underway, writing: “The range between the upper and lower boundaries has fallen to 7.7%—one of the lowest values throughout the entire bull cycle.” Such compressions in volatility historically precede large directional moves. Adler explained, “The decrease in volatility indicates energy accumulation in the market; the price is ready for a rally, and in an upward trend environment, the chances of an upward breakout are significantly higher.” In the current cycle, Adler has identified six episodes of such squeezes. Four were immediately followed by strong price appreciation, while the remaining two saw brief corrections before continuing upward. The takeaway: “Based on this experience, the current squeeze most likely foreshadows another upward impulse, although a small consolidation before the move is also not ruled out.” With long-term holders now controlling an overwhelming share of supply, bullish technical compression in play, and institutional adoption continuing to absorb circulating coins, the environment CrediBull describes echoes past moments of explosive upside. While nothing is guaranteed, the combination of on-chain metrics and technical indicators suggest Bitcoin’s next chapter may already be beginning—quietly, beneath the surface. At press time, BTC traded at $108,738. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s recent price action is holding firm above the $108,000 level despite a string of minor pullbacks in recent trading sessions. Notably, CoinGecko data shows that the Bitcoin price has climbed to an intraday high of $109,116, but it wasn’t able to hold above and has retreated slightly lower at the time of writing.  Volatility has been relatively subdued for Bitcoin above $106,000. However, Doctor Profit, a well-followed crypto analyst, believes Bitcoin is still in a bullish structure, and he outlined two likely paths for the next major move. Bull Flag And Breakout To $130,000 With Retest The first scenario outlined by Doctor Profit involves a breakout to a price level between $113,000 and $114,000, which would take Bitcoin to a new all-time high in the process. However, this all-time high would be very brief. According to this scenario, a sharp correction is expected to follow once Bitcoin reaches this range.  Related Reading: Analyst Shares Bitcoin Cheat Sheet Showing When The Bull Run Begins This correction will send the price back down into the $92,000 to $93,000 range to fill a CME gap and tap into a major liquidity pool. Rather than causing panic, the analyst views this move as part of a bullish continuation. This potential retracement zone is clearly marked on Doctor Profit’s daily candlestick chart with the message “Add more if market allows.” The pullback, if it happens, would serve to reset the market and initiate a bounce before Bitcoin resumes its upward trajectory to $120,000 again. Direct Rally To $120,000 Without Retest The second path skips the correction altogether. In this scenario, Bitcoin breaks through the flag resistance to rally past $113,000. From there, the scenario sees Bitcoin continuing upward without returning to the lower support zones. The move hinges on the ability of Bitcoin to gain momentum rapidly and lead to a strong push toward $120,000. Doctor Profit points out that this option is a more aggressive bullish continuation, and both scenarios are valid for bullish price targets in the long term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To See 52% Increase To $166,000, Analyst Reveals Tight Timeline He also debunked fears surrounding the sudden movement of a dormant Satoshi-era whale wallet containing 80,000 BTC. The analyst believes the transfer was likely an over-the-counter deal between a large private entity and an institution or government and not a sign of looming sell pressure. Volatility is going to be very low in the coming days, as there are no macro market events that can cause price volatility. FOMC meeting minutes are due Wednesday, and there are going to be US unemployment claims on Thursday, but both are low-volatility events. Nonetheless, the $113,000 to $114,000 price range is the most important level to watch in both scenarios. What follows from there, a sharp correction or a straight continuation, will define the speed of the next leg to $120,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $108,270. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

In a conversation with The Bitcoin Economy podcast, Bloomberg Intelligence ETF analyst James Seyffart argued that the next, and potentially largest, leg of institutional demand for spot-Bitcoin exchange-traded funds will not come from pension funds, endowments, or sovereign wealth managers. Instead, it will arise when the country’s fragmented network of registered investment advisers (RIAs) finally gains full discretionary clearance to recommend Bitcoin ETFs to ordinary clients. “The biggest bull case for the ETFs has been the unlocking of RIAs in 2025,” Seyffart said. “Right now the vast majority of the assets are stuck in that middle ground where, if a client specifically asks to buy a Bitcoin ETF, the adviser can act—but the adviser cannot initiate the recommendation.” The Biggest Bull Case For Bitcoin In 2025 Seyffart broke the compliance bottleneck into a traffic-light schema that most financial advisers will recognise. A red-light firm bars Bitcoin entirely; a yellow-light firm permits unsolicited purchases (“If you come to me and ask for it, I can do it”); and a green-light firm allows the adviser to solicit an allocation (“I can recommend that you put two percent of your portfolio in Bitcoin”). Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Liquidity Lifeline Just Got Cut—What You Need To Know Wire-house broker–dealers—which still custody trillions of dollars—largely remain in the red or yellow camps, paralysed by multi-year due-diligence committees. Independent RIAs, by contrast, “were the early adopters,” Seyffart noted, because they “don’t have to wait for a due-diligence team of a bunch of people sitting in New York.” Yet even among independents, most advisers outsource portfolio construction to centralised model portfolios; until those models flag Bitcoin ETFs as eligible holdings, discretionary uptake will stay muted. Seyffart’s focus on 2025 is calendrical, not calendrical: the first full-calendar year after launch gives compliance teams twelve months of daily NAV history—often a hard requirement before a new ETF can graduate from yellow to green status. “Usually it can take two to three years before an ETF gets approved,” he said, but the extraordinary size and liquidity of the spot-Bitcoin cohort is already accelerating that cycle. Crucially, the next Form 13F reporting deadline on 15 August 2025 will reveal second-quarter holdings as of 30 June. Seyffart expects the data to confirm that “a lot more RIAs have come online and [are] buying this for their clients,” providing the first concrete measure of green-light conversions. Related Reading: Bitcoin In For Another 460% Run? This Rare Fiat Signal Just Returned If the gatekeeping retreats, model-portfolio architects can incorporate Bitcoin’s historically uncorrelated returns into strategic-allocation frameworks. That in turn would grant advisers legal cover to solicit Bitcoin exposure, unleashing a flywheel of inflows. Seyffart cautioned that the same compliance teams will demand iron-clad fiduciary justifications—volatility, custody and tax treatment remain live concerns—but he argued that the ETFs now provide a wrapper familiar to any wealth platform. Seyffart’s thesis is that the moment a critical mass of compliance committees flips from yellow to green—allowing advisers to recommend Bitcoin rather than merely transact it—flows could dwarf everything seen to date. Whether that inflection arrives in the next 12 months will determine, in his view, “the biggest bull case for Bitcoin.” At press time, BTC traded at $108,250. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Despite the Bitcoin price holding up quite nicely above $100,000 and remaining very close to its all-time high levels, there continues to be expectations of a massive crash that would rock the market. Pseudonymous crypto analyst FriendlyRox points to a number of indicators for this, going from volume to momentum, all pointing to a possible price crash. What is the expected result of this? Losing the $100,000 psychological level and then falling to previous peaks. Bitcoin Price At Risk With Dwindling Volume And Momentum In the analysis, FriendlyRox highlighted the decline in major metrics such as momentum and volume as the major driver of the forecasted price crash. This comes amid bullish news dominating the headlines, such as institutions increasing their Bitcoin holdings and supply on exchanges falling toward new lows, meaning investors are choosing to hold for higher prices. Related Reading: Ethereum Ready For Explosive Breakout: $5,791 The Minimum Target–Analyst The decline in the volume has been apparent after the Bitcoin price had fallen below $100,000 before bouncing back up in June. So far, in the month of July, the Bitcoin trading volumes have trended lower, with data from Coinglass showing consistent daily volumes below $100 billion. At the same time, there has also been a decline in momentum, with the analyst pointing out a negative divergence in this metric. Furthermore, the Bitcoin price has also flashed a historical trend that has usually predated market tops. This is price reaching the 50 EMA (Exponential Moving Average) and then retracing. FriendlyRox revealed that in the past, whenever the price touched the 50 EMA and then extended back, it usually signalled a crash, and the Bitcoin price has done this now, extending even further. Other metrics that have also flashed bearishness include the RSI and the MACD, both of which are now showing a loss of momentum as they moved into the negative. All of these factors happening together at the same time have painted a pretty bleak picture for the leading cryptocurrency by market cap. BTC Bottom Targets With the lineup of bearish developments, the crypto analyst has predicted an approximately 50% from here. As volume continues to decrease and momentum slides into the negative, they expect that the Bitcoin price will be looking to retrace back to the 50 EMA. Related Reading: Bitcoin Must Hold $106,000 And $98,000 To Avoid Breakdown The interesting fact here is that the 50 EMA falls below the previous Bitcoin price peak, putting it at $60,000. A crash of this magnitude would only be rivaled by the COVID crash in 2020 and the FTX-induced market crash back in 2022. But nevertheless, it would mean a wipeout for altcoins across the board. As for the timeframe for when this could happen, there is no definite timeline. Going by the analyst’s chart, it could take a couple of years for this to completely play out, with the analyst closing with: “Let us see how it unfolds.” Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), the Bitcoin proxy firm co-founded by Bitcoin bull Michael Saylor, has made headlines once again on Monday, but not for its usual Bitcoin acquisitions, but for its notable absence of purchases during the week of June 30 to July 6.  This marks the first time since late March that the largest corporate holder of BTC has not added to its impressive treasury, which currently stands at 597,325 Bitcoin, valued at approximately $64.71 billion. Strategy Bitcoin Investment Hits A Pause The lack of activity in Bitcoin acquisitions is surprising, especially given Strategy’s aggressive purchases over the past few months. These purchases have brought the company close to holding nearly 3% of the cryptocurrency’s total supply. From April 7 through June 29, the company invested $6.77 billion in acquiring 69,140 BTC, averaging about $97,906 per coin. At current market prices, these investments have appreciated by 10.4%, now worth around $7.49 billion. Related Reading: XRP Could Hit $35 If It Captures A Quarter Of Remittance Market By 2029 In terms of trading, Strategy’s stock (trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol MSTR) saw a slight decline of 0.7% during morning trading hours, which is in line with the 0.8% drop in Bitcoin prices. As of this writing, MSTR closed the day at $395. This highlights the close relationship between the company’s performance and the volatility of the cryptocurrency market. However, the company’s stock has enjoyed a rise of 38.5% in 2025, outpacing BTC’s 16.1% increase and the S&P 500’s modest gain of 6.1%. Up To $4.2 Billion For Future BTC Investments In addition to this pause in BTC purchases, Strategy did not issue any new common or preferred shares during the specified week. However, the company announced a sales agreement to potentially issue and sell up to $4.2 billion in 10% preferred stock.  According to Monday’s press release on the matter by the Bitcoin proxy firm, the proceeds from this sales agreement are earmarked for general corporate purposes, which include future BTC acquisitions and working capital needs. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Repeat Parabolic Phase From 2017 And 2021? Here’s The Target The new preferred stock, known as Series A Perpetual Stride Preferred Stock, will be sold in a “disciplined manner,” taking market conditions into account, highlighting the firm’s ongoing commitment to leveraging its financial strategies to enhance its BTC holdings, even as it temporarily steps back from direct purchases. At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $107,855, marking a 1.5% decline within the last 24 hours, increasing the gap between the current price and its record by 3.5%. This follows a failed attempt last week to overcome the cryptocurrency’s most significant resistance level of $110,000 and establish a new all-time high above its current record of $111,800. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has continued to trade within a tight range just below its previous all-time high, showing recent signs of upward movement but falling short of reclaiming its peak price. The asset recorded a seven-day high of $110,307, but it has since cooled, with current trading levels around $108,311, representing a slight 0.3% drop over the last 24 hours. While the broader market maintains cautious optimism, several indicators suggest that market participants remain split on where Bitcoin is headed next. Related Reading: Are Bitcoin Retail Traders Back In The Market? On-Chain Data Suggests So Bitcoin Shorts Increase on Binance Despite Price Climb Despite the price strength seen in recent days, certain signals hint at increasing friction between bullish price action and bearish positioning from traders. According to a recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor BorisVest, Bitcoin’s rise is being met with a counterintuitive decline in funding rates on Binance, the largest crypto exchange by volume. This trend could play a crucial role in shaping short-term market behavior. BorisVest noted that as Bitcoin consolidates within the $100,000 to $110,000 range, funding rates on Binance have gradually declined. This suggests that a significant number of traders are taking short positions—essentially betting that Bitcoin’s rally will soon reverse. The analyst explained that this behavior indicates skepticism about the sustainability of the recent price gains, particularly among retail and leverage-focused traders. “The declining funding rates show that users on Binance are increasingly shorting Bitcoin,” he explained. “This dynamic often creates forced exits as short positions come under pressure, leading to liquidations or forced margin increases. These events can further propel upward price movement as positions get closed out automatically.” Given Binance’s dominance in trading volume, BorisVest emphasized that its funding rate trend serves as a strong proxy for overall market sentiment. If current positioning continues, the market may see a short squeeze, which could accelerate Bitcoin’s momentum toward new highs. On-Chain Metric Flags Caution as NVT Golden Cross Edges Higher While futures market dynamics are drawing attention, on-chain data is also showing signs worth monitoring. Another CryptoQuant analyst, Burak Kesmeci, highlighted the movement of Bitcoin’s NVT Golden Cross metric, a tool used to assess market value in relation to on-chain transaction volume. This metric has historically signaled local tops when it moves above specific thresholds. In his analysis, Kesmeci pointed out that the NVT Golden Cross successfully identified three prior short-term peaks in 2025, each followed by corrections ranging from 9% to over 20%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Outflows Continue To Rise: Investor Confidence At An All-Time High? The metric currently sits at 1.98, below the 2.2 threshold that has often indicated overheated market conditions, but is trending upward. “While the current level isn’t yet in the danger zone,” Kesmeci wrote, “its upward trajectory could be an early warning that price momentum is beginning to overextend.” However, the analyst cautioned against interpreting the signal as immediately bearish. In previous cases, the NVT Golden Cross remained elevated for several days before a correction followed. This behavior may instead point to continued strength among bulls, at least in the medium term, even if a near-term pullback remains possible. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart form TradingView

The Global Money Supply has just hit a rare yearly growth rate of 9%. Here’s what followed for Bitcoin the last few times this signal appeared. Global Money Supply Is Currently Sharply Going Up In a new post on X, Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards has talked about the latest trend in the Global Money Supply. The “Global Money Supply” refers to an indicator that measures the total amount of fiat supply (priced in US Dollars) issued by the top countries around the world. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Supply Most Centralized Among Top Coins—62% Held By Just 10 Whales Below is the chart shared by Edwards that shows the data for the year-on-year growth in the metric: As displayed in the graph, the metric’s value has recently been witnessing an increase, indicating that fiat supply is going up. “Central banks are flooding the market with fiat money,” notes the analyst. Currently, the indicator stands at around 9%, which corresponds to the Global Money Supply undergoing a 9% jump over the last twelve months. “This is extreme and rare,” says Edwards. In the same chart, the Capriole Investments founder has also attached the historical data of the daily Bitcoin price. Interestingly, past surges of the metric to this level all preceded significant bull rallies for the cryptocurrency over the next twelve months. More specifically, the August 2017 signal led to a 663% surge, the November 2017 one to a 136% increase, and the June 2020 one to a 580% rally. This comes to an average gain of 460%. Thus, it would appear that money printers being busy around the world is something that tends to be bullish for Bitcoin. Considering that the Global Money Supply is once again rising at an appreciable rate, it only remains to be seen whether BTC will once again feel a positive effect over the coming year. In some other news, the Bitcoin network recently saw its largest ever movement of coins older than ten years, as CryptoQuant Head of Research Julio Moreno has pointed out in an X post. In total, this latest spike of transactions involving ancient coins saw the movement of around 81,000 BTC, worth a whopping $8.8 billion. Generally, old coins move when they are being sold, so these transfers could correspond to profit-taking. Related Reading: Bitcoin Latest Rally Backed By Stronger Purchasing Power: Report Interestingly, the Apparent Demand indicator has remained positive for Bitcoin even after these transactions, as Edwards has explained in another X post. This metric gauges the demand for Bitcoin by comparing its production (mining issuance) against its inventory (supply inactive over 1 year). “Despite 80,000 BTC moving, Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand is still bullish,” says the analyst. Bitcoin Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $108,400, up 0.7% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, charts from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is up 7% over the last two weeks, showing signs of strength despite expectations that the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will keep interest rates unchanged at its upcoming July 30 meeting. However, some indicators suggest that the market may be entering overheating territory. Bitcoin Market Entering Overheating Territory? According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor burakkesmeci, the Bitcoin Network Value to Transaction (NVT) Golden Cross is on the rise. Importantly, this upward movement is beginning to signal signs of market overheating. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Dominance Signals Weak Hands Capitulating, Strong Hands Rising For the uninitiated, the Bitcoin NVT Golden Cross is a technical indicator that compares short-term and long-term moving averages of the NVT ratio to identify potential market tops or bottoms. When the short-term NVT crosses above the long-term average, it often signals that Bitcoin is becoming overvalued and may face a short-term correction. Notably, this indicator has successfully predicted three local tops so far in 2025. The first occurred on February 5, when the NVT Golden Cross hit 2.68 while BTC traded at $97,600, followed by a 23.65% correction. On March 24, the indicator peaked at 2.87 with BTC around $87,500, leading to a subsequent correction of 16.06%. Most recently – on June 16 – it rose to 2.21 with BTC trading at $106,800, which was followed by a 9.87% price dip. Currently, the NVT Golden Cross stands at 1.98. Although it hasn’t crossed the key 2.2 threshold yet, its upward trajectory suggests that market overheating could be brewing. The CryptoQuant analyst explained: Breaking its previous high is moderately bullish and shows momentum is building. If the metric crosses 2.2 again, it may hint at a local top. But don’t rush to exit – historically, the metric has stayed above 2.2 for several days. In conclusion, burakkesmeci noted that while crossing the 2.2 level might suggest Bitcoin is heating up in the short-term, it could also signal a return of bullish momentum in the medium-term. That said, the opinion on BTC’s short-term price trajectory is largely divided. Analysts Split Over BTC Price Action ​​The NVT Golden Cross suggests that BTC may still have room to rally before hitting a potential local top. However, some analysts foresee a short-term pullback before Bitcoin reaches new highs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Network Volume Echoes Mid-2021 ‘Stable Equilibrium’ – Is A Big Move Brewing? For instance, noted crypto analyst Chistian Chifoi described the current BTC price action as a “deceptive setup,” warning it may trap bulls before a possible surge toward a new all-time high (ATH) of $160,000. Meanwhile, on-chain analytics firm Glassnode forecasts BTC’s short-term peak at $117,000. At press time, BTC trades at $108,204, down 0.1% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

The liquidity engine that has supported risk assets, including Bitcoin, since the beginning of 2025 is now shifting into reverse. According to macro analyst Tomas (@TomasOnMarkets), the six-month upswing in Federal Reserve liquidity has ended, and a potentially destabilizing wave of debt issuance by the US Treasury is about to begin. In a post published on X late Sunday, Tomas warned: “ Federal Reserve Liquidity set to fall… The Fed liquidity upswing that began on January 1 2025 is now over.” Bitcoin Enters Danger Zone The catalyst behind this reversal is the recent $5 trillion debt ceiling increase passed by Congress last week. That legislative decision gives the Treasury Department the green light to aggressively rebuild its cash balance at the Federal Reserve—known as the Treasury General Account (TGA)—which had been intentionally drained to inject liquidity into the system during the first half of the year. “The US Government had previously been draining the Treasury General Account (liquidity injection). But a new debt ceiling agreement was reached last week ($5 trillion raise). This means the Government will start to flood the market with new debt to ‘refill’ the TGA (liquidity drain),” Tomas wrote. He emphasized that the refill target is currently set at $850 billion, up from recent levels around $350 billion, implying roughly $500 billion in liquidity will be removed from the system in the coming months. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investor Sentiment Back To ‘Very Bullish’ — What This Means The implications for Bitcoin are stark. Risk assets have historically benefited from rising dollar liquidity—particularly in the context of elevated ETF inflows, corporate adoption, and a weakening US dollar. But that backdrop is now shifting. As Tomas put it, “All else being equal, this TGA rebuild process should be bullish for the US dollar.” A strengthening dollar, when coupled with falling bank reserves, is generally a bearish environment for Bitcoin. The pressure on liquidity won’t necessarily come all at once, but the mechanics are clear. Treasury will issue large volumes of new short-term debt—primarily T-bills—to finance the TGA refill. This issuance will compete with other dollar-denominated assets for funding, draining cash out of banks and money markets. Tomas notes that this dynamic could be softened if money market funds rotate their cash out of the Fed’s Overnight Reverse Repo Facility, which still holds about $214 billion. “It’s possible that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent could lower the target level, meaning less of a refill,” he adds. “I’d expect we may see a lot of T-bill issuance, which could tempt some of the remaining $214bn left in the Reverse Repo to leave the facility (liquidity injection) and lessen any negative impact of the TGA refill.” Still, even with some reallocation from RRP, Tomas expects the overall effect to reduce reserve balances—bank reserves as a percentage of GDP are likely to fall below 10%, he estimates. While this is not as dire as the 7% level reached in 2019 (which triggered the repo crisis), it represents a sharp tightening compared to the first half of this year. “There could be some funding stress around the end of September (end-of-quarter),” Tomas cautioned. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breakout Is A Trap—Analyst Predicts Pain Before $160,000 Surge Bitcoin’s performance has coincided with the exact window Tomas outlines as a liquidity upswing. As documented, Bitcoin’s price has closely tracked the direction of aggregate G5 central bank balance sheets and the level of US bank reserves. When those reserves shrink—especially in the face of stronger Treasury issuance and a rebounding dollar—Bitcoin has historically struggled to sustain upside momentum. This concern is compounded by Tomas’s warning that speculative short positioning against the dollar has reached extremes. “Back in January, I was shouting about a fall in the dollar. Now everybody and their mothers are bearish on the dollar, and positioning is massively short across the board. It’s time for, at the very least, an upward correction/consolidation for the US dollar, in my opinion.” Such a reversal in the dollar would mark a critical macro headwind for Bitcoin. The 90-day rolling correlation between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index (DXY) remains firmly negative. In environments where the dollar strengthens—especially when driven by tightening liquidity—Bitcoin has rarely outperformed. The next several weeks will be critical. If Treasury proceeds with aggressive issuance and market participants demand higher yields, liquidity could tighten faster than anticipated. While Tomas does leave open the possibility that Secretary Bessent may adjust the TGA target downward, the baseline scenario remains a $500 billion net liquidity drain—directly reversing the conditions that allowed Bitcoin to surge. At press time, BTC traded at $108,148. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is currently on the path to holding a strong footing above $109,000 after reclaiming the $108,000 price level in the past seven days. Notably, Bitcoin’s price  has gained more than $3,000 over the past week, with bullish momentum building steadily across the broader crypto market.  Bitcoin is once again flirting with all-time highs, and popular crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader recently shared a technical analysis on social media that claims Bitcoin has now entered its third parabolic phase. His chart places Bitcoin right on track for another historic climb to crazy price targets even in 2025. Bitcoin Following Familiar Price Schedule According to Merlijn’s analysis, Bitcoin’s current market structure is mimicking its past two parabolic rallies that took place in 2017 and 2021. Just like in previous cycles, Bitcoin’s current price cycle has moved through a prolonged consolidation phase and gradually grinded upward. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To See 52% Increase To $166,000, Analyst Reveals Tight Timeline The next thing now is a vertical breakout. A weekly chart that followed his post on the social media platform X highlighted this trend with three red bowl-shaped curves, each leading into a green “Parabolic Phase” box that represents the final leg of each bull run. The price action so far in 2024 and 2025 has continued to trace this same path. The curve that began forming after the 2022 bottom is now tilting upward sharply. Interestingly, Bitcoin bounced cleanly off the lower arc during its April crash to $74,000, just as it did in 2016 and 2020 before launching into new all-time highs. Crypto analyst Merlijn believes this rebound is the strongest indication yet that the final breakout phase is approaching. No Second Chances: Here’s The Price Target According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s current price structure on the weekly chart has never failed in previous cycles. However, anyone waiting on the sidelines may miss the move entirely. “Bitcoin bounced off the parabolic curve support, momentum is building, and if history rhymes with the biggest burst of the move, this parabolic phase does not give second chances,” he explained. Related Reading: Bitcoin Makes History With Highest Monthly Close, But Volume Is Still Bearish The most interesting part of Merlijn’s forecast is the price target itself. Based on the chart he shared, the green parabolic zone for 2025 extends as high as $335,000, representing more than a 205% rally from current levels. The mid-region of the box is around $150,000, making even the conservative price target significantly higher than Bitcoin’s current price. This prediction is based on the magnitude of previous parabolic runs, which saw Bitcoin increase by over 2,000% in 2017 and more than 1,300% from its 2020 lows to its 2021 peak. If the third phase delivers a similar rally, the path to $335,000 may not be far-fetched. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $108,850, having reached an intraday high of $109,574. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is facing resistance just below its $112,000 all-time high, struggling to break into price discovery as the market gains momentum. After reaching a high of $110,500 yesterday, BTC has retraced over 2%, but price action remains bullish. Traders are closely watching this consolidation, which may act as a springboard for a decisive move upward. Related Reading: Ethereum Forms Rising Wedge Pattern – $2,200 Support Back In Focus? According to top analyst Ted Pillows, multiple technical indicators support a bullish outlook. Notably, Bitcoin has just confirmed a bullish MACD crossover on the daily timeframe, which is often a precursor to upside continuation. Adding to the bullish case is Bitcoin’s highest monthly close in history, a key psychological milestone that could bring new inflows and spark renewed interest from sidelined investors. The current setup points to a market that’s primed for upside, provided buyers can reclaim the $112K level. As macroeconomic uncertainty fades and bullish momentum builds across the crypto space, Bitcoin could soon enter uncharted territory. All eyes are on the next few sessions as BTC tests critical levels with strong technical backing. Bitcoin Nears Crucial Breakout Phase Amid Bullish Momentum Bitcoin has gained over 10% since June 22, climbing from local lows near $98,000 to current levels around $108,000. This steady advance reflects renewed optimism across the crypto market, but the asset now enters a critical phase. Price action has stalled just below the $112,000 all-time high—a resistance level that has capped Bitcoin’s upside since late May. The coming days will be decisive, as a breakout above this level could trigger price discovery, while a rejection may open the door for a broader pullback. Despite the short-term uncertainty, the long-term outlook remains firmly bullish. Many analysts argue that an eventual move beyond $112K is inevitable, driven by favorable macro trends, strong institutional interest, and growing demand for spot ETFs. Still, caution is warranted. A failure to hold current support levels—especially the $105,000–$106,000 zone—could lead to a drop below $100,000 and shake out overleveraged positions. Ted Pillows remains confident, stating, “You can’t be bearish on Bitcoin now.” His view is based on a confluence of technical factors: a confirmed bullish MACD crossover, a clean support retest, and Bitcoin’s highest monthly close on record. These signals, combined with steady momentum, suggest that a new all-time high could be just days away. Related Reading: Chainlink Consolidates Above Key Support – Bulls Eye $20 Range BTC Faces Rejection At $109K, Eyes Key Support At $106K Bitcoin’s price is consolidating after failing to hold above the $109,300 resistance level, as seen on the 4-hour chart. After briefly tapping above $110,000, BTC retraced and is now hovering around $107,961. This rejection suggests that the all-time high zone remains a major obstacle for bulls despite the ongoing uptrend. Price is now testing the 50 SMA (blue line), currently acting as dynamic support, while the 100 and 200 SMAs (green and red) below provide a broader safety net in the $106,000–$106,500 region. The key level to watch remains $109,300. A decisive break and close above this level on strong volume would likely signal the start of price discovery. However, if bears manage to push BTC below $106,000, we could see a retest of the $103,600 support—an area that has held multiple times since late May. Related Reading: Ethereum Looks Strong Despite Volatility – $10,000 Price Target Gains Momentum Volume is relatively low compared to previous impulse moves, indicating that the current pullback may be a healthy pause rather than a trend reversal. For now, Bitcoin’s structure remains bullish, with higher highs and higher lows intact. If bulls can defend this support zone and regain momentum, a new attempt at breaking $112,000 may come sooner rather than later. The next 48–72 hours will be critical. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin has been gaining strength over the past several days, with price action relaying the buying interest from institutional players. A surge of inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs helped push the price to $109,758, followed shortly after by another move to around $110,386 in the past 24 hours. This brings Bitcoin within close proximity to its price peak just above $111,000. Now that momentum is clearly leaning bullish, technical analysis shows a breakout that could see Bitcoin increase by another 52% within the next three months. Fibonacci Extension Model Points To $166,000 Price Target CryptoCon shared a chart based on Fibonacci extensions that places the next major upside target at $166,754. This level corresponds to the 5.618 Fibonacci ratio and marks a projected 52% increase from the current region around $109,000. The analyst highlighted how previous Fibonacci extension levels like $30,362, $46,831, $71,591, and $109,236, have all aligned with important points for Bitcoin’s price action throughout the ongoing cycle.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Makes History With Highest Monthly Close, But Volume Is Still Bearish According to CryptoCon, this model has consistently tracked Bitcoin’s moves over the past two years. As shown in the price chart below, the 1.618, 2.618, 3.618, and 4.618 Fibonacci extension levels have all been reached this cycle, with the latest being $109,236 at the 4.618 Fib level. Keeping this in mind, the next Fibonacci extension level is at 5.618, which corresponds to $166,754.  The $166,000 mark has remained unchanged as the cycle’s next projection. But although the timing has proven difficult to nail down, the structure of the chart is still intact and continues to validate the target. Bitcoin’s price action is currently sitting just above the 4.618 extension level, and a 52% rally from here would complete the pattern.  Revised Timeline Pushes Target To September Although the projection for $166,000 is still consistent, the timeline to reach it has undergone several adjustments. CryptoCon estimates that Bitcoin could reach the $166,000 level by September; however, he also acknowledged that the forecast has shifted several times.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price At $145,000 In September? Bullish Dojis Suggest Upward Move He explained that the current cycle has taken longer than any previous one, which has caused earlier predictions to be delayed. To put this in perspective, Bitcoin’s current cycle began in late 2022 after it reached a bottom around $15,000 during the bear market. This means the current bull phase has dragged on for almost three years. Still, data has shown over and over that the cycle is not finished, and so the only thing left to do is to wait. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $109,110. If the $160,000 price target is eventually reached in September, the next outlook would be a possible move to the 6.618 Fib extension, which is sitting at a price target of $254,162. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin may be breaking out—but don’t celebrate yet. Crypto analyst Cristian Chifoi warns that the current move is a deceptive setup likely to trap bullish traders before Bitcoin eventually surges toward $160,000. In his latest YouTube video titled “Bitcoin is breaking out! But why is it bad?”, Chifoi dismantles the optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s recent price action, arguing that this rally is not the start of a true bull run, but a temporary fakeout designed to mislead. Don’t Trust The Bitcoin Pump “From a technical standpoint, this could mean a real breakout, retest, and then continuation,” Chifoi admits. “But in my opinion, this is a false breakout which can get to a new shallow all-time high, maybe $113,000, maybe $120,000 until something like July 10 to 12—then we come back in this channel before July 20.” His thesis hinges on Bitcoin seasonality, a pattern he has explored in earlier videos, which suggests the real macro pivot will only arrive later in the month. “I’m more bullish from July 20 into the start of September,” he says. Related Reading: Bitcoin Latest Rally Backed By Stronger Purchasing Power: Report Chifoi argues that retail traders are likely to pile in during the breakout retest phase, only to be shaken out as market makers use the liquidity to reverse the trend. “The majority of retail traders would go long here on a retest. The market makers will get their money,” he warns, predicting a trap that could drag Bitcoin down to levels near $97,000 before the real uptrend resumes. His analysis extends beyond simple technicals. Chifoi points to macroeconomic sentiment and Fed policy as crucial context, particularly emphasizing that rate cuts would actually be a bearish signal—not bullish as commonly believed. “Rate cuts this year would not be bullish at all,” he insists. “It’s not Powell who decides, it’s the bond market who decides when the rate cuts should come… and when that is happening, it’s because they need to panic cut.” Chifoi stresses that the best-case scenario for bulls is actually no rate cuts, at least for now. “Just keep the rates at 4.5% maybe until year end. If this happens, I’m 100% sure that the market will go higher and higher before this starts to happen.” Related Reading: Buy Bitcoin Before Jackson Hole—Or Regret It Forever, Says Arthur Hayes Beyond Bitcoin, Chifoi forecasts a synchronized move across the broader crypto market once the July 20 pivot takes place. He highlights Ethereum, XRP, DeFi tokens like CRV, and ISO-compliant coins such as IOTA, ADA, and Quant as potential beneficiaries. “Bitcoin would drag all the crypto space with it,” he says, adding that older players like Filecoin and Polkadot could also catch a bid. Mid-Term Price Target Looking further ahead, Chifoi describes the coming period as a “stablecoin super cycle,” with DeFi projects and yield-generating protocols positioned to gain the most from Wall Street’s hunger for yield. “In crypto, only DeFi projects get you yields,” he explains. “Wall Street is boiling up for yields.” He also reaffirms his macro thesis that the current financial system is on track to be replaced, likening the transition to the 1930s move from gold to fiat. “After 100 years of this exact system, this should be replaced by another system with liquidity in it,” he says, envisioning a cryptographic banking future. Despite the short-term turbulence he expects, Chifoi remains long-term bullish. His price target of $160,000 for Bitcoin by early September reflects a belief in accelerated expansion—fueled by seasonality, delayed policy pivots, and broader adoption. In closing, Chifoi reminds his audience to zoom out and trust the high time frame signals. Referencing Bollinger Bands on the two-month chart, he notes the beginning of another expansion phase similar to late 2020. “After that, the bear market begins,” he cautions. But until then, the ride could be fast—and extremely volatile. “The next time we cut [rates], it is a big deal and something is wrong,” he concludes. “For now, we just want the cuts going higher for longer.” At press time, BTC traded at $108,848. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The wait for altcoin season continues as the crypto market is still showing signs of bearish movement. Expectations are high that the altcoin market will begin to rally soon, but not everyone is optimistic that the altcoin season is coming. One of those is market analyst and expert Stockmoney Lizards, who has said that it is not happening soon. Altcoin Season Is Not Happening Soon In an X (formerly Twitter) post, Stockmoney Lizards informed their over 160,000 followers that the altcoin season could not be happening anytime soon. The analyst said that it is “not even remotely close”, pointing to the rising Bitcoin dominance as the reason why the altcoin season is still far off. Related Reading: Analyst Says Cycle Is Not Finished Amid 2 Years Of Bitcoin Sideways Movement Analyzing the chart, the market expert explains that despite the Bitcoin dominance having fallen by around 2%, it still doesn’t mean much. This is because the dominance is still very strong and continues to trade inside the channel. This channel also charts a possible increase in the Bitcoin dominance from here, which would be detrimental for altcoins. So far, the Bitcoin dominance has also managed to hold above 65%. While this is not the highest it has ever been, it is still incredibly high, with previous altcoin seasons not happening until the dominance had fallen toward 40%. The analyst doesn’t entirely rule out the possibility of an altcoin season, saying it will still come. However, for now, Bitcoin continues to dominate, as he explains that “BTC is the measure of all things.” Altcoin Dominance Reaches 2021 Levels As the Bitcoin dominance has risen and the altcoin dominance has fallen, they have gone toward levels not seen in years. For example, the last time the Bitcoin dominance was above 65% was back in 2021 before it crashed to usher in the altcoin season, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Related Reading: AI Founder Puts XRP Price As High As $20-$30 Even worse is the Ethereum dominance, which has dropped to 5-year lows. Sitting at only 8%, it is now at levels recorded back in 2020 before the market rebounded from the COVID-19 crash. This has greatly diminished Ethereum’s ability to pull the altcoin market up with it. In the same vein, the altcoin dominance, excluding Ethereum, has now dropped to 26%. The last time that the OTHERS dominance was this low was in 2021. However, this was right around when the altcoin season was starting, suggesting that the current market could be at the cusp of another altcoin run. Nevertheless, for there to be any sustainable altcoin season, the Bitcoin dominance must first crash. Going by what happened back in 2017 and 2021, at least a 40% crash in the Bitcoin dominance is required to usher in the altcoin season. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin market now appears to be seeing a notable surge in its momentum, with the asset finally breaching the $110,000 mark to inch really close to its all-time high. The asset has so far registered a 24-hour high of $110,117, less than 3% increase away from its all-time high of $111,814 registered in May. At the time of writing, BTC trades back at $109,000 levels, marking a 1.3% increase in the past day. While the price action alone has fueled speculation of an imminent breakout, several analysts suggest that deeper structural shifts within the market are at play. On-chain data particularly reveals changes in whale activity, exchange flows, and stablecoin dynamics that could offer clues about the market’s next move. Related Reading: Bitwise Just Sounded The Alarm—Bitcoin Could Explode Soon Signs of Reduced Bitcoin Selling Pressure and Upward Bias CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan shared a detailed view of the current state of Bitcoin’s price structure, emphasizing a broader directional change in the market that began in April. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s recent price resilience can be attributed to a noticeable decline in selling pressure from US-based institutional investors and whales. These large players, who were previously offloading significant holdings, have shifted into accumulation mode in recent months. Dan explained that Bitcoin appears to be in a transitional phase. He observed a gradual fade in sell-side activity from major US wallets since April, and that drop has been met with stable buying pressure. This suggests that institutions are no longer offloading positions but are maintaining or adding to their holdings. Dan added that the current consolidation, marked by Bitcoin’s price hovering above the $100,000 range, is allowing short-term overheated indicators to cool down. Dan noted: While the possibility of a correction remains, the broader market direction continues to be upward, so I will maintain my perspective and look forward to the second half of 2025. Overall, this could mean that the ongoing price action in the market may be the calm before a longer-term move upward, assuming macro conditions remain supportive. Exchange Outflows and Liquidity Trends Paint a Risk-On Picture Adding further context, another CryptoQuant contributor, Novaque Research, pointed to recent shifts in on-chain flows and broader liquidity conditions. According to their data, exchange outflows have picked up notably since late June, with some days seeing over 10,000 BTC withdrawn. Such behavior typically signals long-term investor confidence and a reduced likelihood of near-term sell pressure. Additionally, the report noted that miners have remained largely inactive in terms of selling despite BTC trading above $100,000. Related Reading: Whales Are Quietly Repositioning, Here’s What Bitcoin’s $107K Price Isn’t Telling You This suggests confidence in price sustainability and possible anticipation of more favorable financial conditions. Meanwhile, stablecoin activity has also shown key changes. Both USDC and USDT supply ratios on exchanges have been trending downward since mid-June, indicating capital is sitting idle rather than flowing into spot markets. Novaque noted that investors may be on the sidelines waiting for confirmation, but the structural behavior is leaning toward accumulation. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Data of the Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio suggests investors have stronger purchasing power today than during the previous bull rally. Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio Showing Neutral Purchasing Power In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) of Bitcoin. This indicator measures the ratio between the Bitcoin supply and the supply of stablecoins. Related Reading: Dogecoin Bounces Back With 8% Gain—Is $0.26 In Sight? Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that have their price tied to a fiat currency. The SSR specifically measures the supply of the stablecoins tied to the US Dollar (USD). As for the role that these assets play in the sector, Glassnode explains: Stablecoins have become a critical component of the digital asset ecosystem, serving as the primary quote asset for trading across both centralized and decentralized venues. Functionally, they represent readily available capital, or “dry powder”, available for digital asset purchases. As such, the SSR compares the Bitcoin supply against this available dry powder. In other words, it tells us about how the cryptocurrency compares against the investor’s purchasing power. When the value of the metric is high, it means the BTC supply is high compared to the stablecoin supply. In other words, the trader’s purchasing power is weak. On the other hand, the indicator being low suggests there is high dry powder available relative to the BTC supply. In the context of the current discussion, the SSR itself isn’t of focus, but rather a modified indicator called the SSR Oscillator. According to the analytics firm, the metric measures “how the 200d SMA of the SSR moves within the Bollinger Bands BB(200, 2).” Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin SSR Oscillator over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin SSR Oscillator has been close to the zero mark during the last couple of months, indicating the investor purchasing power is more or less neutral compared to the size of the BTC supply. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Upper Bound Is $117,000, Glassnode Says From the chart, it’s visible that the trend was different during the rally beyond $100,000 that occurred late last year. Back then, the SSR Oscillator took on a highly positive value, suggesting the stablecoin supply was low relative to BTC. The cryptocurrency is currently also trading around the same levels as then, yet the SSR is showing a different story. “Despite similar price levels, this shift suggests that investor purchasing power has improved markedly, reflecting stronger underlying demand conditions,” notes the report. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $109,500, up over 2% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s upward momentum has returned, with the asset briefly crossing the $110,000 threshold before pulling back slightly. After hitting a 24-hour high of $110,117, Bitcoin now trades at $109,386, reflecting a 1.8% increase in the past day. This recent push places the asset about $2,000 surge away from its all-time high of $111,814, recorded in May 2025, prompting renewed attention from traders and analysts. While price movements often attract headlines, on-chain data has started signaling deeper market activity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Dominance Signals Weak Hands Capitulating, Strong Hands Rising Binance Sees 3,400 Bitcoin in Outflows as Spot Volume Surges According to CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha, a substantial volume of BTC has recently been moved off Binance, one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges. The shift aligns with anticipation around a series of US macroeconomic indicators, which historically tend to influence risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Taha highlighted that Binance recorded a net outflow of over 3,400 BTC in a single day. This occurred shortly after Bitcoin’s price breached the $109,000 mark. Large-scale withdrawals from exchanges such as Binance are often interpreted as a sign that holders may be preparing to hold their assets longer-term, or shielding their positions from potential short-term volatility. Simultaneously, Binance’s share of the global Bitcoin spot volume surged significantly, from 41% to 56% in just one session. Taha noted that this spike indicates increased reliance on Binance’s liquidity by traders seeking exposure to Bitcoin ahead of anticipated market-moving economic data. The outflow trend, paired with rising spot volume, suggests that traders are actively responding to broader market signals, especially from traditional finance. US Jobs Report Drives Market Positioning The current surge in Bitcoin activity coincides with heightened market focus on US labor market data, including the Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings figures. These indicators are closely watched by investors as they influence inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rate adjustments. Shifts in rate expectations often have direct consequences for risk assets like Bitcoin, as changes in the cost of capital affect liquidity and investor appetite. Related Reading: Bitcoin Seasonality: Why Summer 2025 Will Catch Everyone Off Guard Taha suggests that the recent Binance outflows may reflect investor positioning ahead of potential macro-driven market volatility. “Bitcoin outflows from Binance alongside the sharp rise in spot trading activity… appear to show that investors are positioning for potential upside volatility,” he wrote. A favorable labor report could amplify bullish sentiment across both equity and crypto markets if it strengthens expectations of a rate cut or an extended pause in rate hikes. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

According to a new analysis shared by crypto analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino, Bitcoin has just closed the quarterly chart with a perfected TD9 sell setup. This is actually interesting, because it adds a possibly long timeline before Bitcoin can reach any further significant price target.  Most of Bitcoin’s daily candles in the past seven days have shown mild upward pressure supported by positive sentiment from various technical analyses. However, according to the TD9 setup, Bitcoin could take up to four years to reach $149,000. TD9 Setup Hints At Slow Climb To $149,000 The TD9 is a component of the TD Sequential indicator, which is often used to identify trend exhaustion, potential reversals, and possible trend changes. Interestingly, what makes this particular signal notable at this point is that it is now projecting a TD Risk level of $149,490, which is essentially a price target for Bitcoin. But if past patterns on the TD9 indicator are anything to go by, getting there might take much longer than bulls expect. Related Reading: Analyst Says Cycle Is Not Finished Amid 2 Years Of Bitcoin Sideways Movement In 2017, a similar perfected TD9 appeared during Bitcoin’s first rally to $20,000. At the time, the TD Risk was projected at $35,000. It wasn’t until late 2020, roughly four years later, that Bitcoin finally reached and broke above that level. A prior occurrence in 2014 offered the same story.  Back then in 2014, the TD9 setup projected a TD Risk of $2,400, but it took approximately 3.5 years to cross that threshold. Now, despite the bullish sentiment today, this historical precedent suggests it could take similar years before the $149,490 target being currently projected by the TD Risk is finally tested or breached. The 3-month candlestick price chart shown above provides a visual analysis of this projection. From the 2014 cycle low, it took 915 days across 10 quarterly candles for Bitcoin to reach its next high. After the 2017 signal, it took 1,096 days (or 12 quarterly candlesticks) for BTC to finally surpass the projected TD Risk level.  Bitcoin Price Action On Gradual Climb Bitcoin has spent the past seven days in a steady but modest uptrend, rising approximately 1.5% from a weekly low around $105,430 to the current range between $109,240 and $109,600. During this move, Bitcoin’s price action tested and retested resistance in the $108,200 to $108,800 zone several times in the past 24 hours. However, it ultimately pushed higher, showing a slow but stable bullish undertone. Related Reading: Analyst Calls For Bitcoin Crash As Price Pulls Above $108,000 — Details At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $109,330, up by 2% in the past 24 hours. It is currently about a 36% move away from reaching the $149,490 price target. However, if Tony Severino’s timeline on the TD9 Risk setup does play out, it wouldn’t be until sometime around July 2029 before Bitcoin reaches the $149,490 price target. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Arthur Hayes has published a new essay, “Quid Pro Stablecoin,” arguing that the United States’ sudden political enthusiasm for bank-issued stablecoins is less about “financial freedom” and more about arming the Treasury with a multi-trillion-dollar “liquidity bazooka.” The former BitMEX chief—writing in his personal newsletter—contends that investors who postpone buying Bitcoin until the Federal Reserve resumes quantitative easing will serve as “exit liquidity” for those who bought earlier. How The Money Printer Is Already Warming Up At the core of Hayes’ thesis is the claim that eight “too-big-to-fail” banks hold roughly $6.8 trillion in demand and time deposits that can be transformed into on-chain dollars. Once customers migrate from legacy accounts to bank stablecoins—he cites JPMorgan’s forthcoming “JPMD” token as the template—those deposits become collateral that can be recycled into Treasury bills. “Adoption of stablecoins by TBTF banks creates up to $6.8 trillion of T-bill buying power,” he writes, adding that the product simultaneously slashes compliance overhead because “an AI agent trained on the corpus of relevant compliance regulations can perfectly ensure that certain transactions are never approved.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Seasonality: Why Summer 2025 Will Catch Everyone Off Guard Hayes layers a second mechanism on top of the stablecoin flow. If Congress strips the Federal Reserve of its ability to pay interest on reserve balances—a proposal floated by Senator Ted Cruz—banks would have to replace that lost income by buying short-dated Treasuries. He estimates the policy could “liberate another $3.3 trillion of inert reserves,” bringing the prospective fire-power for government debt purchases to $10.1 trillion. “This $10.1 trillion liquidity injection will act upon risky assets in the same way Bad Gurl Yellen’s $2.5 trillion injection did… PUMP UP THE JAM!” Hayes asserts. The essay frames the bipartisan GENIUS Act as the legislative linchpin. By barring non-banks from issuing interest-bearing stablecoins, Washington “hands the stablecoin market to banks,” ensuring that fintech issuers such as Circle cannot compete at scale and that deposit flight is funneled into the institutions most likely to bankroll the Treasury. Hayes calculates that the cost savings and enhanced net-interest margins could increase the combined market capitalisation of the big banks by more than 180 percent, a trade he describes as “non-consensus” but executable “in SIZE.” Buy Bitcoin Before The Fed Blinks Despite his long-term enthusiasm, Hayes cautions that a temporary liquidity drain looms once Congress passes what he labels Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.” Refilling the Treasury General Account to its $850 billion target could contract dollar liquidity by nearly half a trillion dollars, an impulse he believes may knock Bitcoin back toward the mid-$90,000s and keep prices range-bound until the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole conference in late August. Related Reading: Public Firms Snag 131,000 BTC, Surpassing ETFs In Bitcoin Purchases “I believe that between now and the August Jackson Hole Fed speech to be given by beta cuck towel bitch boy Jerome Powell, the market will trade sideways to slightly lower. If the TGA refill proves to be dollar liquidity negative, then the downside is $90,000 to $95,000. If the refill proves to be a nothingburger, Bitcoin will chop in the $100,000s without a decisive break above the $112,000 all-time-high,” Hayes writes. The punchline, however, is resolutely bullish. Hayes ridicules advisers steering clients into bonds on the premise that yields will fall: “If you’re still waiting for Powell to whisper ‘QE infinity’ in your ear before you go risk-on, congrats — you’re the exit liquidity. Instead go long Bitcoin. Go long JPMorgan. Forget about Circle.” In his view, the political machinery that props up US deficits has already selected bank stablecoins as the next round of stealth quantitative easing, and Bitcoin—alongside JPMorgan stock—is positioned to absorb the spill-over. Hayes signs off with a stark imperative: “Don’t sit on the sidelines waiting for Powell to bless the bull market.” The liquidity horse, he argues, has already bolted; investors who hesitate to buy Bitcoin risk being trampled beneath it. “You will miss out on Bitcoin pumping 10x to $1 million,” he concludes. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $109,449. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Capo of Crypto, who is currently one of the most recognizeable names in crypto spaces on social media, has sounded a warning for the market. The analyst has completely dismissed the current trajectory of the Bitcoin price and, by extension, the altcoin market, calling for only a short-lived rally. His analysis points to a Bitcoin price crash, but the most impact is expected to be felt by the altcoin market as they tumble further. Bitcoin Price Is Headed Below $100,000 In the post on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Capo of Crypto shares a rather bearish thesis that suggests that the current strength in Bitcoin won’t last. He points out that the Bitcoin price hasn’t bottomed yet and that the capitulation event is yet to happen. Related Reading: XRP Roadmap To $8.5: Why The Next Impulse Could Start Soon A capitulation event is a time in the market when prices are falling, triggering panic among investors. This panic leads to further selling as investors become scared that prices will keep crashing, and this leads to deeper losses in the market. An example of a capitulation event is the FTX market crash, when the Bitcoin price fell by more than 60% in a matter of months. The crypto analyst predicts that the Bitcoin price will actually fall further, first below $100,000. Once this psychological level is broken, he sees the price heading for the $92,000 to $93,000 territory. However, he doesn’t expect the crash to end there as capitulation events often lead to deeper losses. He explains that if Bitcoin does fall below the $92,000-$93,000 support, then the market should expect to see prices as low as $60,000-$70,000. Altcoins To Get Decimated With the Bitcoin price expected to crash so hard, the effect on the altcoin market will be even more profound. Over the last few months, 10% dips in the Bitcoin price have translated to around 20-30% dips in altcoin prices. Therefore, a nearly 50% crash in the Bitcoin price would be disastrous for altcoins. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Risks Market Crash After Closing Below Final Weekly Resistance Capo of Crypto actually expects altcoins to crash harder, predicting that they will fall another 50-80% if his idea of the market does play out. This could put the altcoin market on a path to new lows not seen in the last five years, and could be the worst bear market in recent history. This is not the first time that Capo has warned the community of an impending crash. Back in May, when the Bitcoin price was hitting new all-time highs, the analyst had warned that the market could reverse its gains. On May 15, he posted a picture of a Black Swan, suggesting that prices could crash. Since then, most altcoins have reversed their gains, with only Bitcoin managing to maintain most of its gains from that time period. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed Bitcoin has recently been trading within a short-term band that has its upper level currently located at $117,000. Bitcoin Is Trading Between These Two Short-Term Holder Price Bands In a new post on X, Glassnode has discussed about the short-term price band that Bitcoin has been trading inside lately. The band in question is based on two levels relevant to the short-term holders (STHs), investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. Related Reading: This Altcoin Looks Like PEPE Before It Exploded, Analyst Says The indicator related to the STHs that’s of interest here is the Realized Price, which keeps track of the average cost basis or acquisition level of the BTC addresses belonging to the group. When the value of this metric is greater than the asset’s spot price, it means the STHs as a whole can be considered to be in a state of net unrealized profit. On the other hand, it being under the coin’s value suggests the dominance of loss among this cohort. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode, which shows the trend in the STH Realized Price and a few lines corresponding to different standard deviations (SDs) from it: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin price has interestingly traded in a range defined by two of these lines over the last six months. The lower bound of the range has been the -1 SD and the upper one the +1 SD. The STHs are made up of the new entrants into the sector and fickle-minded traders, so the group tends to easily react to happenings in the market. As such, the cryptocurrency’s price can have some interactions with the STH Realized Price, due to the cohort’s panic buying/selling. From the chart, it’s apparent that the same has been true in this period of consolidation as well. While the indicator has certainly not acted as an absolute support or resistance, the asset has still seen such effects around it in the short term. Related Reading: Ethereum In Demand: ETF Inflow Streak Extends To 7 Weeks Currently, Bitcoin is trading above the metric after finding a rebound at it last month. The level ahead of the asset now is the +1 SD. In this period of sideways movement, it has so far only been able to test this line once. “This level can be seen as the upper band of the short-term price action,” notes the analytics firm. The +1 SD is located at around $117,000 right now. It only remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will test this level in the near future or not. BTC Price Bitcoin has enjoyed a surge of more than 3% over the past day that has taken its price to $109,500. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin continues to show little upward momentum as it trades below the $110,000 mark. As of the time of writing, the asset is priced at $108,071 after recording a modest 2% gain in the past 24 hours. Despite nearing its all-time high in recent weeks, Bitcoin appears to be caught in a holding pattern as institutional rebalancing and on-chain dynamics take center stage. Recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Kripto Mevsimi has drawn attention to unusual on-chain activity during the final days of June. Related Reading: Bitcoin Seasonality: Why Summer 2025 Will Catch Everyone Off Guard Institutional Rebalancing and Local Exhaustion Signals In a post titled “Whale Profit-Taking and Loss Realizations: Was Late June a Local Pivot Point?” the analyst noted conflicting behaviors among Bitcoin whales. A notable $641 million in realized profits was recorded alongside more than $1.24 billion in realized losses, a combination that suggests a potential inflection point in market sentiment. Mevsimi emphasized that this mixed realization trend came at the close of the second quarter, a period often associated with institutional portfolio adjustments. “Structurally, late June is also the end of H1, when ETFs and institutional funds often rebalance portfolios,” he wrote. Mevsimi added: “That timing adds weight: this wasn’t just noise — it may have been a deliberate repositioning.” Notably, these large movements in realized profit and loss did not extend into early July, which may imply either a temporary stabilization or the beginning of a new market phase. The report also detailed divergent whale behavior. Newer whales, likely short-term participants entering in Q2, showed signs of capitulation, realizing both profits and significant losses. In contrast, older whales locked in $91 million in profits with negligible losses. This division may indicate a shift in control, with experienced holders offloading risk while short-term players exited amid market uncertainty. According to Mevsimi, the convergence of these trends hints at a local exhaustion phase rather than a continued rally. Bitcoin LTH Unrealized Profits and Historical Context In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant’s Darkfost explored the unrealized profit profile of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs), revealing a downward trend despite BTC’s proximity to record highs. Citing the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, Darkfost noted that average unrealized profits have fallen to around 220%. This is well below the peaks recorded during market tops in March and December 2024, which reached 300% and 350%, respectively. “Although these profits may seem substantial, we’re still far from the levels observed during the tops of this cycle,” Darkfost stated. The realized price for LTHs now stands at approximately $39,000, suggesting a strong cushion but also reinforcing that speculative excess has yet to return in full force. Related Reading: Bitwise Just Sounded The Alarm—Bitcoin Could Explode Soon The analyst added that a return to top-cycle unrealized profit levels would require BTC to rise to around $140,000, a target echoed by several bullish forecasts. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from Tradingview

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within striking distance of its all-time high (ATH), a noticeable shift is underway in the cryptocurrency’s Realized Dominance metric, reflecting changes in behavior between short-term holders (STH) and long-term holders (LTH). Bitcoin Realized Dominance Shows Shift In Market Sentiment According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Crazzyblockk, the latest trend in BTC’s Realized Dominance metric highlights a significant shift in overall market structure and sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Binary CDD Hints At Healthy Consolidation, Not A Top For the uninitiated, the Bitcoin Realized Dominance metric tracks how much of the realized cap is held by STH vs LTH. A rising LTH cohort share signals strong conviction and maturing supply, while a falling STH share suggests reduced speculation or loss-taking. The latest on-chain data shows that STH Realized Cap has dropped to around 45%, signalling reduced activity from recent buyers. This implies that new BTC entering the market is either being sold at a loss or maturing into long-term holdings – easing short-term speculative pressure. Conversely, the LTH Realized Cap has risen, suggesting long-held coins are being moved at a profit – typically seen during late-stage bull markets. This increase also indicates aging supply, as coins held by short-term investors transition into the LTH category, reflecting strong holder conviction. The analyst added: The divergence between falling STH Realized Cap and rising LTH Realized Cap highlights a supply transfer dynamic: recent entrants struggle with profitability amid lackluster price action, while long-term participants maintain control of an increasing share of network value. Such transitions often precede bullish reversals. As short-term realized cap shrinks, selling pressure typically declines, paving the way for more sustainable upside, provided fresh demand returns. In conclusion, Crazzyblockk noted that the Bitcoin market is currently in a consolidation phase, with weaker hands exiting and stronger holders gaining dominance. If this trend continues, it could establish a more resilient price base for BTC and potentially pave the way for a new ATH. BTC Apparent Demand Has Declined Despite the rise in LTH Realized Dominance, some on-chain signals point to weakening demand. This has raised concerns of a potential short-term drawdown, which could be as severe as the April 2025 pullback to almost $75,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Surprise Bears: $100K–$110K Range Shows Rising Short Interest Notably, Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand – a metric that assesses whether new buyer demand is sufficient to offset selling from miners and LTHs – has dropped to -37,000 BTC. This sharp decline suggests fading buying interest. That said, one positive indicator remains. The STH floor price has been steadily rising over the past few months and is now nearing the psychologically important $100,000 level. At press time, BTC trades at $107,796, up 1.2% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant, X, and TradingView.com

Bitcoin held its ground as US President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed the Senate late Monday narrowly by 51–50 votes. Related Reading: Insane Or Insightful? VC Firm Says XRP Could Reach Nearly $9,000 In Just 5 Years Vice President J.D. Vance provided the tie‑breaking vote that sealed the deal for the $4.5 trillion package. The package contains major tax reductions, deeper border security funding, and substantial cuts to programs such as Medicaid and SNAP. No crypto‑specific language was included, but lawmakers attempted to insert a tax benefit for digital currencies during last minute wrangling. Bitcoin Dips Before Quick Rebound Based on reports from crypto exchanges, Bitcoin slid to about $106,344 just before the vote as traders held off on big bets. Once the Senate approved the bill, BTC jumped back above $107,800. That’s a swing of roughly $1,400 in a single session, or about 1.3%. Some traders said they sold into the dip and bought back in once the outcome was clear. Others just shook their heads and waited for the next news headline. Altcoins And Liquidations Take A Hit Ethereum barely moved, dipping 0.3%, while XRP fell about 0.7% on the day. Solana saw the biggest wobble, dropping as much as 6% during trading. In total, more than $219 million in liquidations hit the broader crypto market. Bitcoin alone accounted for roughly $60 million of that, as leveraged positions got squeezed when prices spiked back up. Crypto Stocks See Gains Stocks tied to digital assets also rallied on the bill’s passage. MicroStrategy (now Strategy) shares climbed around 3.2%, and Coinbase jumped 2.3% in early trading on Tuesday. Those moves outpaced the Nasdaq’s modest gains. Related Reading: Ethereum Network Awakens—Massive On-Chain Moves Signal What’s Coming Final Look The bill now goes back to the House for a final sign‑off, with Speaker Mike Johnson aiming to send it to the president’s desk before July 4. The traders will be watching closely for the next inflation reading and for any signals from the Federal Reserve. If a rise in prices drives the Fed to more increases, crypto markets may come under new strain. However, others view the Senate vote as another reminder that Bitcoin and its cousins can move on significant political news—sometimes in ways not necessarily expected. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView