THE LATEST CRYPTO NEWS

Bitcoin may be breaking out—but don’t celebrate yet. Crypto analyst Cristian Chifoi warns that the current move is a deceptive setup likely to trap bullish traders before Bitcoin eventually surges toward $160,000. In his latest YouTube video titled “Bitcoin is breaking out! But why is it bad?”, Chifoi dismantles the optimism surrounding Bitcoin’s recent price action, arguing that this rally is not the start of a true bull run, but a temporary fakeout designed to mislead. Don’t Trust The Bitcoin Pump “From a technical standpoint, this could mean a real breakout, retest, and then continuation,” Chifoi admits. “But in my opinion, this is a false breakout which can get to a new shallow all-time high, maybe $113,000, maybe $120,000 until something like July 10 to 12—then we come back in this channel before July 20.” His thesis hinges on Bitcoin seasonality, a pattern he has explored in earlier videos, which suggests the real macro pivot will only arrive later in the month. “I’m more bullish from July 20 into the start of September,” he says. Related Reading: Bitcoin Latest Rally Backed By Stronger Purchasing Power: Report Chifoi argues that retail traders are likely to pile in during the breakout retest phase, only to be shaken out as market makers use the liquidity to reverse the trend. “The majority of retail traders would go long here on a retest. The market makers will get their money,” he warns, predicting a trap that could drag Bitcoin down to levels near $97,000 before the real uptrend resumes. His analysis extends beyond simple technicals. Chifoi points to macroeconomic sentiment and Fed policy as crucial context, particularly emphasizing that rate cuts would actually be a bearish signal—not bullish as commonly believed. “Rate cuts this year would not be bullish at all,” he insists. “It’s not Powell who decides, it’s the bond market who decides when the rate cuts should come… and when that is happening, it’s because they need to panic cut.” Chifoi stresses that the best-case scenario for bulls is actually no rate cuts, at least for now. “Just keep the rates at 4.5% maybe until year end. If this happens, I’m 100% sure that the market will go higher and higher before this starts to happen.” Related Reading: Buy Bitcoin Before Jackson Hole—Or Regret It Forever, Says Arthur Hayes Beyond Bitcoin, Chifoi forecasts a synchronized move across the broader crypto market once the July 20 pivot takes place. He highlights Ethereum, XRP, DeFi tokens like CRV, and ISO-compliant coins such as IOTA, ADA, and Quant as potential beneficiaries. “Bitcoin would drag all the crypto space with it,” he says, adding that older players like Filecoin and Polkadot could also catch a bid. Mid-Term Price Target Looking further ahead, Chifoi describes the coming period as a “stablecoin super cycle,” with DeFi projects and yield-generating protocols positioned to gain the most from Wall Street’s hunger for yield. “In crypto, only DeFi projects get you yields,” he explains. “Wall Street is boiling up for yields.” He also reaffirms his macro thesis that the current financial system is on track to be replaced, likening the transition to the 1930s move from gold to fiat. “After 100 years of this exact system, this should be replaced by another system with liquidity in it,” he says, envisioning a cryptographic banking future. Despite the short-term turbulence he expects, Chifoi remains long-term bullish. His price target of $160,000 for Bitcoin by early September reflects a belief in accelerated expansion—fueled by seasonality, delayed policy pivots, and broader adoption. In closing, Chifoi reminds his audience to zoom out and trust the high time frame signals. Referencing Bollinger Bands on the two-month chart, he notes the beginning of another expansion phase similar to late 2020. “After that, the bear market begins,” he cautions. But until then, the ride could be fast—and extremely volatile. “The next time we cut [rates], it is a big deal and something is wrong,” he concludes. “For now, we just want the cuts going higher for longer.” At press time, BTC traded at $108,848. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The wait for altcoin season continues as the crypto market is still showing signs of bearish movement. Expectations are high that the altcoin market will begin to rally soon, but not everyone is optimistic that the altcoin season is coming. One of those is market analyst and expert Stockmoney Lizards, who has said that it is not happening soon. Altcoin Season Is Not Happening Soon In an X (formerly Twitter) post, Stockmoney Lizards informed their over 160,000 followers that the altcoin season could not be happening anytime soon. The analyst said that it is “not even remotely close”, pointing to the rising Bitcoin dominance as the reason why the altcoin season is still far off. Related Reading: Analyst Says Cycle Is Not Finished Amid 2 Years Of Bitcoin Sideways Movement Analyzing the chart, the market expert explains that despite the Bitcoin dominance having fallen by around 2%, it still doesn’t mean much. This is because the dominance is still very strong and continues to trade inside the channel. This channel also charts a possible increase in the Bitcoin dominance from here, which would be detrimental for altcoins. So far, the Bitcoin dominance has also managed to hold above 65%. While this is not the highest it has ever been, it is still incredibly high, with previous altcoin seasons not happening until the dominance had fallen toward 40%. The analyst doesn’t entirely rule out the possibility of an altcoin season, saying it will still come. However, for now, Bitcoin continues to dominate, as he explains that “BTC is the measure of all things.” Altcoin Dominance Reaches 2021 Levels As the Bitcoin dominance has risen and the altcoin dominance has fallen, they have gone toward levels not seen in years. For example, the last time the Bitcoin dominance was above 65% was back in 2021 before it crashed to usher in the altcoin season, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Related Reading: AI Founder Puts XRP Price As High As $20-$30 Even worse is the Ethereum dominance, which has dropped to 5-year lows. Sitting at only 8%, it is now at levels recorded back in 2020 before the market rebounded from the COVID-19 crash. This has greatly diminished Ethereum’s ability to pull the altcoin market up with it. In the same vein, the altcoin dominance, excluding Ethereum, has now dropped to 26%. The last time that the OTHERS dominance was this low was in 2021. However, this was right around when the altcoin season was starting, suggesting that the current market could be at the cusp of another altcoin run. Nevertheless, for there to be any sustainable altcoin season, the Bitcoin dominance must first crash. Going by what happened back in 2017 and 2021, at least a 40% crash in the Bitcoin dominance is required to usher in the altcoin season. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView.com

The Bitcoin market now appears to be seeing a notable surge in its momentum, with the asset finally breaching the $110,000 mark to inch really close to its all-time high. The asset has so far registered a 24-hour high of $110,117, less than 3% increase away from its all-time high of $111,814 registered in May. At the time of writing, BTC trades back at $109,000 levels, marking a 1.3% increase in the past day. While the price action alone has fueled speculation of an imminent breakout, several analysts suggest that deeper structural shifts within the market are at play. On-chain data particularly reveals changes in whale activity, exchange flows, and stablecoin dynamics that could offer clues about the market’s next move. Related Reading: Bitwise Just Sounded The Alarm—Bitcoin Could Explode Soon Signs of Reduced Bitcoin Selling Pressure and Upward Bias CryptoQuant analyst Crypto Dan shared a detailed view of the current state of Bitcoin’s price structure, emphasizing a broader directional change in the market that began in April. According to the analyst, Bitcoin’s recent price resilience can be attributed to a noticeable decline in selling pressure from US-based institutional investors and whales. These large players, who were previously offloading significant holdings, have shifted into accumulation mode in recent months. Dan explained that Bitcoin appears to be in a transitional phase. He observed a gradual fade in sell-side activity from major US wallets since April, and that drop has been met with stable buying pressure. This suggests that institutions are no longer offloading positions but are maintaining or adding to their holdings. Dan added that the current consolidation, marked by Bitcoin’s price hovering above the $100,000 range, is allowing short-term overheated indicators to cool down. Dan noted: While the possibility of a correction remains, the broader market direction continues to be upward, so I will maintain my perspective and look forward to the second half of 2025. Overall, this could mean that the ongoing price action in the market may be the calm before a longer-term move upward, assuming macro conditions remain supportive. Exchange Outflows and Liquidity Trends Paint a Risk-On Picture Adding further context, another CryptoQuant contributor, Novaque Research, pointed to recent shifts in on-chain flows and broader liquidity conditions. According to their data, exchange outflows have picked up notably since late June, with some days seeing over 10,000 BTC withdrawn. Such behavior typically signals long-term investor confidence and a reduced likelihood of near-term sell pressure. Additionally, the report noted that miners have remained largely inactive in terms of selling despite BTC trading above $100,000. Related Reading: Whales Are Quietly Repositioning, Here’s What Bitcoin’s $107K Price Isn’t Telling You This suggests confidence in price sustainability and possible anticipation of more favorable financial conditions. Meanwhile, stablecoin activity has also shown key changes. Both USDC and USDT supply ratios on exchanges have been trending downward since mid-June, indicating capital is sitting idle rather than flowing into spot markets. Novaque noted that investors may be on the sidelines waiting for confirmation, but the structural behavior is leaning toward accumulation. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

Data of the Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio suggests investors have stronger purchasing power today than during the previous bull rally. Bitcoin Stablecoin Supply Ratio Showing Neutral Purchasing Power In its latest weekly report, the on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has talked about the latest trend in the Stablecoin Supply Ratio (SSR) of Bitcoin. This indicator measures the ratio between the Bitcoin supply and the supply of stablecoins. Related Reading: Dogecoin Bounces Back With 8% Gain—Is $0.26 In Sight? Stablecoins are cryptocurrencies that have their price tied to a fiat currency. The SSR specifically measures the supply of the stablecoins tied to the US Dollar (USD). As for the role that these assets play in the sector, Glassnode explains: Stablecoins have become a critical component of the digital asset ecosystem, serving as the primary quote asset for trading across both centralized and decentralized venues. Functionally, they represent readily available capital, or “dry powder”, available for digital asset purchases. As such, the SSR compares the Bitcoin supply against this available dry powder. In other words, it tells us about how the cryptocurrency compares against the investor’s purchasing power. When the value of the metric is high, it means the BTC supply is high compared to the stablecoin supply. In other words, the trader’s purchasing power is weak. On the other hand, the indicator being low suggests there is high dry powder available relative to the BTC supply. In the context of the current discussion, the SSR itself isn’t of focus, but rather a modified indicator called the SSR Oscillator. According to the analytics firm, the metric measures “how the 200d SMA of the SSR moves within the Bollinger Bands BB(200, 2).” Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin SSR Oscillator over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin SSR Oscillator has been close to the zero mark during the last couple of months, indicating the investor purchasing power is more or less neutral compared to the size of the BTC supply. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Upper Bound Is $117,000, Glassnode Says From the chart, it’s visible that the trend was different during the rally beyond $100,000 that occurred late last year. Back then, the SSR Oscillator took on a highly positive value, suggesting the stablecoin supply was low relative to BTC. The cryptocurrency is currently also trading around the same levels as then, yet the SSR is showing a different story. “Despite similar price levels, this shift suggests that investor purchasing power has improved markedly, reflecting stronger underlying demand conditions,” notes the report. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $109,500, up over 2% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s upward momentum has returned, with the asset briefly crossing the $110,000 threshold before pulling back slightly. After hitting a 24-hour high of $110,117, Bitcoin now trades at $109,386, reflecting a 1.8% increase in the past day. This recent push places the asset about $2,000 surge away from its all-time high of $111,814, recorded in May 2025, prompting renewed attention from traders and analysts. While price movements often attract headlines, on-chain data has started signaling deeper market activity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Dominance Signals Weak Hands Capitulating, Strong Hands Rising Binance Sees 3,400 Bitcoin in Outflows as Spot Volume Surges According to CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha, a substantial volume of BTC has recently been moved off Binance, one of the world’s largest crypto exchanges. The shift aligns with anticipation around a series of US macroeconomic indicators, which historically tend to influence risk-on assets like Bitcoin. Taha highlighted that Binance recorded a net outflow of over 3,400 BTC in a single day. This occurred shortly after Bitcoin’s price breached the $109,000 mark. Large-scale withdrawals from exchanges such as Binance are often interpreted as a sign that holders may be preparing to hold their assets longer-term, or shielding their positions from potential short-term volatility. Simultaneously, Binance’s share of the global Bitcoin spot volume surged significantly, from 41% to 56% in just one session. Taha noted that this spike indicates increased reliance on Binance’s liquidity by traders seeking exposure to Bitcoin ahead of anticipated market-moving economic data. The outflow trend, paired with rising spot volume, suggests that traders are actively responding to broader market signals, especially from traditional finance. US Jobs Report Drives Market Positioning The current surge in Bitcoin activity coincides with heightened market focus on US labor market data, including the Non-Farm Employment Change, Unemployment Rate, and Average Hourly Earnings figures. These indicators are closely watched by investors as they influence inflation expectations and the Federal Reserve’s approach to interest rate adjustments. Shifts in rate expectations often have direct consequences for risk assets like Bitcoin, as changes in the cost of capital affect liquidity and investor appetite. Related Reading: Bitcoin Seasonality: Why Summer 2025 Will Catch Everyone Off Guard Taha suggests that the recent Binance outflows may reflect investor positioning ahead of potential macro-driven market volatility. “Bitcoin outflows from Binance alongside the sharp rise in spot trading activity… appear to show that investors are positioning for potential upside volatility,” he wrote. A favorable labor report could amplify bullish sentiment across both equity and crypto markets if it strengthens expectations of a rate cut or an extended pause in rate hikes. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

According to a new analysis shared by crypto analyst Tony “The Bull” Severino, Bitcoin has just closed the quarterly chart with a perfected TD9 sell setup. This is actually interesting, because it adds a possibly long timeline before Bitcoin can reach any further significant price target.  Most of Bitcoin’s daily candles in the past seven days have shown mild upward pressure supported by positive sentiment from various technical analyses. However, according to the TD9 setup, Bitcoin could take up to four years to reach $149,000. TD9 Setup Hints At Slow Climb To $149,000 The TD9 is a component of the TD Sequential indicator, which is often used to identify trend exhaustion, potential reversals, and possible trend changes. Interestingly, what makes this particular signal notable at this point is that it is now projecting a TD Risk level of $149,490, which is essentially a price target for Bitcoin. But if past patterns on the TD9 indicator are anything to go by, getting there might take much longer than bulls expect. Related Reading: Analyst Says Cycle Is Not Finished Amid 2 Years Of Bitcoin Sideways Movement In 2017, a similar perfected TD9 appeared during Bitcoin’s first rally to $20,000. At the time, the TD Risk was projected at $35,000. It wasn’t until late 2020, roughly four years later, that Bitcoin finally reached and broke above that level. A prior occurrence in 2014 offered the same story.  Back then in 2014, the TD9 setup projected a TD Risk of $2,400, but it took approximately 3.5 years to cross that threshold. Now, despite the bullish sentiment today, this historical precedent suggests it could take similar years before the $149,490 target being currently projected by the TD Risk is finally tested or breached. The 3-month candlestick price chart shown above provides a visual analysis of this projection. From the 2014 cycle low, it took 915 days across 10 quarterly candles for Bitcoin to reach its next high. After the 2017 signal, it took 1,096 days (or 12 quarterly candlesticks) for BTC to finally surpass the projected TD Risk level.  Bitcoin Price Action On Gradual Climb Bitcoin has spent the past seven days in a steady but modest uptrend, rising approximately 1.5% from a weekly low around $105,430 to the current range between $109,240 and $109,600. During this move, Bitcoin’s price action tested and retested resistance in the $108,200 to $108,800 zone several times in the past 24 hours. However, it ultimately pushed higher, showing a slow but stable bullish undertone. Related Reading: Analyst Calls For Bitcoin Crash As Price Pulls Above $108,000 — Details At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $109,330, up by 2% in the past 24 hours. It is currently about a 36% move away from reaching the $149,490 price target. However, if Tony Severino’s timeline on the TD9 Risk setup does play out, it wouldn’t be until sometime around July 2029 before Bitcoin reaches the $149,490 price target. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Arthur Hayes has published a new essay, “Quid Pro Stablecoin,” arguing that the United States’ sudden political enthusiasm for bank-issued stablecoins is less about “financial freedom” and more about arming the Treasury with a multi-trillion-dollar “liquidity bazooka.” The former BitMEX chief—writing in his personal newsletter—contends that investors who postpone buying Bitcoin until the Federal Reserve resumes quantitative easing will serve as “exit liquidity” for those who bought earlier. How The Money Printer Is Already Warming Up At the core of Hayes’ thesis is the claim that eight “too-big-to-fail” banks hold roughly $6.8 trillion in demand and time deposits that can be transformed into on-chain dollars. Once customers migrate from legacy accounts to bank stablecoins—he cites JPMorgan’s forthcoming “JPMD” token as the template—those deposits become collateral that can be recycled into Treasury bills. “Adoption of stablecoins by TBTF banks creates up to $6.8 trillion of T-bill buying power,” he writes, adding that the product simultaneously slashes compliance overhead because “an AI agent trained on the corpus of relevant compliance regulations can perfectly ensure that certain transactions are never approved.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Seasonality: Why Summer 2025 Will Catch Everyone Off Guard Hayes layers a second mechanism on top of the stablecoin flow. If Congress strips the Federal Reserve of its ability to pay interest on reserve balances—a proposal floated by Senator Ted Cruz—banks would have to replace that lost income by buying short-dated Treasuries. He estimates the policy could “liberate another $3.3 trillion of inert reserves,” bringing the prospective fire-power for government debt purchases to $10.1 trillion. “This $10.1 trillion liquidity injection will act upon risky assets in the same way Bad Gurl Yellen’s $2.5 trillion injection did… PUMP UP THE JAM!” Hayes asserts. The essay frames the bipartisan GENIUS Act as the legislative linchpin. By barring non-banks from issuing interest-bearing stablecoins, Washington “hands the stablecoin market to banks,” ensuring that fintech issuers such as Circle cannot compete at scale and that deposit flight is funneled into the institutions most likely to bankroll the Treasury. Hayes calculates that the cost savings and enhanced net-interest margins could increase the combined market capitalisation of the big banks by more than 180 percent, a trade he describes as “non-consensus” but executable “in SIZE.” Buy Bitcoin Before The Fed Blinks Despite his long-term enthusiasm, Hayes cautions that a temporary liquidity drain looms once Congress passes what he labels Trump’s “Big Beautiful Bill.” Refilling the Treasury General Account to its $850 billion target could contract dollar liquidity by nearly half a trillion dollars, an impulse he believes may knock Bitcoin back toward the mid-$90,000s and keep prices range-bound until the Federal Reserve’s annual Jackson Hole conference in late August. Related Reading: Public Firms Snag 131,000 BTC, Surpassing ETFs In Bitcoin Purchases “I believe that between now and the August Jackson Hole Fed speech to be given by beta cuck towel bitch boy Jerome Powell, the market will trade sideways to slightly lower. If the TGA refill proves to be dollar liquidity negative, then the downside is $90,000 to $95,000. If the refill proves to be a nothingburger, Bitcoin will chop in the $100,000s without a decisive break above the $112,000 all-time-high,” Hayes writes. The punchline, however, is resolutely bullish. Hayes ridicules advisers steering clients into bonds on the premise that yields will fall: “If you’re still waiting for Powell to whisper ‘QE infinity’ in your ear before you go risk-on, congrats — you’re the exit liquidity. Instead go long Bitcoin. Go long JPMorgan. Forget about Circle.” In his view, the political machinery that props up US deficits has already selected bank stablecoins as the next round of stealth quantitative easing, and Bitcoin—alongside JPMorgan stock—is positioned to absorb the spill-over. Hayes signs off with a stark imperative: “Don’t sit on the sidelines waiting for Powell to bless the bull market.” The liquidity horse, he argues, has already bolted; investors who hesitate to buy Bitcoin risk being trampled beneath it. “You will miss out on Bitcoin pumping 10x to $1 million,” he concludes. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $109,449. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Capo of Crypto, who is currently one of the most recognizeable names in crypto spaces on social media, has sounded a warning for the market. The analyst has completely dismissed the current trajectory of the Bitcoin price and, by extension, the altcoin market, calling for only a short-lived rally. His analysis points to a Bitcoin price crash, but the most impact is expected to be felt by the altcoin market as they tumble further. Bitcoin Price Is Headed Below $100,000 In the post on the social media platform X (formerly Twitter), Capo of Crypto shares a rather bearish thesis that suggests that the current strength in Bitcoin won’t last. He points out that the Bitcoin price hasn’t bottomed yet and that the capitulation event is yet to happen. Related Reading: XRP Roadmap To $8.5: Why The Next Impulse Could Start Soon A capitulation event is a time in the market when prices are falling, triggering panic among investors. This panic leads to further selling as investors become scared that prices will keep crashing, and this leads to deeper losses in the market. An example of a capitulation event is the FTX market crash, when the Bitcoin price fell by more than 60% in a matter of months. The crypto analyst predicts that the Bitcoin price will actually fall further, first below $100,000. Once this psychological level is broken, he sees the price heading for the $92,000 to $93,000 territory. However, he doesn’t expect the crash to end there as capitulation events often lead to deeper losses. He explains that if Bitcoin does fall below the $92,000-$93,000 support, then the market should expect to see prices as low as $60,000-$70,000. Altcoins To Get Decimated With the Bitcoin price expected to crash so hard, the effect on the altcoin market will be even more profound. Over the last few months, 10% dips in the Bitcoin price have translated to around 20-30% dips in altcoin prices. Therefore, a nearly 50% crash in the Bitcoin price would be disastrous for altcoins. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Risks Market Crash After Closing Below Final Weekly Resistance Capo of Crypto actually expects altcoins to crash harder, predicting that they will fall another 50-80% if his idea of the market does play out. This could put the altcoin market on a path to new lows not seen in the last five years, and could be the worst bear market in recent history. This is not the first time that Capo has warned the community of an impending crash. Back in May, when the Bitcoin price was hitting new all-time highs, the analyst had warned that the market could reverse its gains. On May 15, he posted a picture of a Black Swan, suggesting that prices could crash. Since then, most altcoins have reversed their gains, with only Bitcoin managing to maintain most of its gains from that time period. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed Bitcoin has recently been trading within a short-term band that has its upper level currently located at $117,000. Bitcoin Is Trading Between These Two Short-Term Holder Price Bands In a new post on X, Glassnode has discussed about the short-term price band that Bitcoin has been trading inside lately. The band in question is based on two levels relevant to the short-term holders (STHs), investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. Related Reading: This Altcoin Looks Like PEPE Before It Exploded, Analyst Says The indicator related to the STHs that’s of interest here is the Realized Price, which keeps track of the average cost basis or acquisition level of the BTC addresses belonging to the group. When the value of this metric is greater than the asset’s spot price, it means the STHs as a whole can be considered to be in a state of net unrealized profit. On the other hand, it being under the coin’s value suggests the dominance of loss among this cohort. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode, which shows the trend in the STH Realized Price and a few lines corresponding to different standard deviations (SDs) from it: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin price has interestingly traded in a range defined by two of these lines over the last six months. The lower bound of the range has been the -1 SD and the upper one the +1 SD. The STHs are made up of the new entrants into the sector and fickle-minded traders, so the group tends to easily react to happenings in the market. As such, the cryptocurrency’s price can have some interactions with the STH Realized Price, due to the cohort’s panic buying/selling. From the chart, it’s apparent that the same has been true in this period of consolidation as well. While the indicator has certainly not acted as an absolute support or resistance, the asset has still seen such effects around it in the short term. Related Reading: Ethereum In Demand: ETF Inflow Streak Extends To 7 Weeks Currently, Bitcoin is trading above the metric after finding a rebound at it last month. The level ahead of the asset now is the +1 SD. In this period of sideways movement, it has so far only been able to test this line once. “This level can be seen as the upper band of the short-term price action,” notes the analytics firm. The +1 SD is located at around $117,000 right now. It only remains to be seen whether Bitcoin will test this level in the near future or not. BTC Price Bitcoin has enjoyed a surge of more than 3% over the past day that has taken its price to $109,500. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin continues to show little upward momentum as it trades below the $110,000 mark. As of the time of writing, the asset is priced at $108,071 after recording a modest 2% gain in the past 24 hours. Despite nearing its all-time high in recent weeks, Bitcoin appears to be caught in a holding pattern as institutional rebalancing and on-chain dynamics take center stage. Recent analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Kripto Mevsimi has drawn attention to unusual on-chain activity during the final days of June. Related Reading: Bitcoin Seasonality: Why Summer 2025 Will Catch Everyone Off Guard Institutional Rebalancing and Local Exhaustion Signals In a post titled “Whale Profit-Taking and Loss Realizations: Was Late June a Local Pivot Point?” the analyst noted conflicting behaviors among Bitcoin whales. A notable $641 million in realized profits was recorded alongside more than $1.24 billion in realized losses, a combination that suggests a potential inflection point in market sentiment. Mevsimi emphasized that this mixed realization trend came at the close of the second quarter, a period often associated with institutional portfolio adjustments. “Structurally, late June is also the end of H1, when ETFs and institutional funds often rebalance portfolios,” he wrote. Mevsimi added: “That timing adds weight: this wasn’t just noise — it may have been a deliberate repositioning.” Notably, these large movements in realized profit and loss did not extend into early July, which may imply either a temporary stabilization or the beginning of a new market phase. The report also detailed divergent whale behavior. Newer whales, likely short-term participants entering in Q2, showed signs of capitulation, realizing both profits and significant losses. In contrast, older whales locked in $91 million in profits with negligible losses. This division may indicate a shift in control, with experienced holders offloading risk while short-term players exited amid market uncertainty. According to Mevsimi, the convergence of these trends hints at a local exhaustion phase rather than a continued rally. Bitcoin LTH Unrealized Profits and Historical Context In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant’s Darkfost explored the unrealized profit profile of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs), revealing a downward trend despite BTC’s proximity to record highs. Citing the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, Darkfost noted that average unrealized profits have fallen to around 220%. This is well below the peaks recorded during market tops in March and December 2024, which reached 300% and 350%, respectively. “Although these profits may seem substantial, we’re still far from the levels observed during the tops of this cycle,” Darkfost stated. The realized price for LTHs now stands at approximately $39,000, suggesting a strong cushion but also reinforcing that speculative excess has yet to return in full force. Related Reading: Bitwise Just Sounded The Alarm—Bitcoin Could Explode Soon The analyst added that a return to top-cycle unrealized profit levels would require BTC to rise to around $140,000, a target echoed by several bullish forecasts. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from Tradingview

As Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade within striking distance of its all-time high (ATH), a noticeable shift is underway in the cryptocurrency’s Realized Dominance metric, reflecting changes in behavior between short-term holders (STH) and long-term holders (LTH). Bitcoin Realized Dominance Shows Shift In Market Sentiment According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Crazzyblockk, the latest trend in BTC’s Realized Dominance metric highlights a significant shift in overall market structure and sentiment. Related Reading: Bitcoin Binary CDD Hints At Healthy Consolidation, Not A Top For the uninitiated, the Bitcoin Realized Dominance metric tracks how much of the realized cap is held by STH vs LTH. A rising LTH cohort share signals strong conviction and maturing supply, while a falling STH share suggests reduced speculation or loss-taking. The latest on-chain data shows that STH Realized Cap has dropped to around 45%, signalling reduced activity from recent buyers. This implies that new BTC entering the market is either being sold at a loss or maturing into long-term holdings – easing short-term speculative pressure. Conversely, the LTH Realized Cap has risen, suggesting long-held coins are being moved at a profit – typically seen during late-stage bull markets. This increase also indicates aging supply, as coins held by short-term investors transition into the LTH category, reflecting strong holder conviction. The analyst added: The divergence between falling STH Realized Cap and rising LTH Realized Cap highlights a supply transfer dynamic: recent entrants struggle with profitability amid lackluster price action, while long-term participants maintain control of an increasing share of network value. Such transitions often precede bullish reversals. As short-term realized cap shrinks, selling pressure typically declines, paving the way for more sustainable upside, provided fresh demand returns. In conclusion, Crazzyblockk noted that the Bitcoin market is currently in a consolidation phase, with weaker hands exiting and stronger holders gaining dominance. If this trend continues, it could establish a more resilient price base for BTC and potentially pave the way for a new ATH. BTC Apparent Demand Has Declined Despite the rise in LTH Realized Dominance, some on-chain signals point to weakening demand. This has raised concerns of a potential short-term drawdown, which could be as severe as the April 2025 pullback to almost $75,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Surprise Bears: $100K–$110K Range Shows Rising Short Interest Notably, Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand – a metric that assesses whether new buyer demand is sufficient to offset selling from miners and LTHs – has dropped to -37,000 BTC. This sharp decline suggests fading buying interest. That said, one positive indicator remains. The STH floor price has been steadily rising over the past few months and is now nearing the psychologically important $100,000 level. At press time, BTC trades at $107,796, up 1.2% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant, X, and TradingView.com

Bitcoin held its ground as US President Donald Trump’s “One Big Beautiful Bill” passed the Senate late Monday narrowly by 51–50 votes. Related Reading: Insane Or Insightful? VC Firm Says XRP Could Reach Nearly $9,000 In Just 5 Years Vice President J.D. Vance provided the tie‑breaking vote that sealed the deal for the $4.5 trillion package. The package contains major tax reductions, deeper border security funding, and substantial cuts to programs such as Medicaid and SNAP. No crypto‑specific language was included, but lawmakers attempted to insert a tax benefit for digital currencies during last minute wrangling. Bitcoin Dips Before Quick Rebound Based on reports from crypto exchanges, Bitcoin slid to about $106,344 just before the vote as traders held off on big bets. Once the Senate approved the bill, BTC jumped back above $107,800. That’s a swing of roughly $1,400 in a single session, or about 1.3%. Some traders said they sold into the dip and bought back in once the outcome was clear. Others just shook their heads and waited for the next news headline. Altcoins And Liquidations Take A Hit Ethereum barely moved, dipping 0.3%, while XRP fell about 0.7% on the day. Solana saw the biggest wobble, dropping as much as 6% during trading. In total, more than $219 million in liquidations hit the broader crypto market. Bitcoin alone accounted for roughly $60 million of that, as leveraged positions got squeezed when prices spiked back up. Crypto Stocks See Gains Stocks tied to digital assets also rallied on the bill’s passage. MicroStrategy (now Strategy) shares climbed around 3.2%, and Coinbase jumped 2.3% in early trading on Tuesday. Those moves outpaced the Nasdaq’s modest gains. Related Reading: Ethereum Network Awakens—Massive On-Chain Moves Signal What’s Coming Final Look The bill now goes back to the House for a final sign‑off, with Speaker Mike Johnson aiming to send it to the president’s desk before July 4. The traders will be watching closely for the next inflation reading and for any signals from the Federal Reserve. If a rise in prices drives the Fed to more increases, crypto markets may come under new strain. However, others view the Senate vote as another reminder that Bitcoin and its cousins can move on significant political news—sometimes in ways not necessarily expected. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) is now 195 days into its latest sideways movement, which is part of a broader two-year stretch marked by sluggish price action and short-lived rallies. According to a crypto analyst, just 36 days of meaningful gains have defined this cycle, while the rest have been a relentless grind. Still, despite the clear market fatigue and repeated new lows, the analyst insists that the cycle isn’t over yet.  Bitcoin Cycle Sees Only 36 Days Of Real Gains The current Bitcoin market cycle is being closely examined, as a new analysis by expert analyst Crypto Con delves deep into the cryptocurrency’s past movements, revealing two full years of sideways price action with only brief periods of upward momentum. The analyst’s chart, titled “Cycle 4 Ranges and Expansions,” highlights a pattern of prolonged range-bound activity interrupted by short bursts of expansion. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price At $145,000 In September? Bullish Dojis Suggest Upward Move As of now, Crypto Con notes that Bitcoin has been consolidating for 195 consecutive days since December 18, 2024, without setting a new local high. The chart analysis shows that the total time spent in actual upward expansion in the entire cycle is just 5.76 months. Even more interesting is the fact that when isolating the days in which Bitcoin recorded new local highs, the number shrinks to just 36 days.  According to the market expert, these expansion bursts are responsible for all of Bitcoin’s significant price increases during its current cycle. Every expansion phase has also occurred within extremely narrow windows—typically just two to five days long. The rest of the cycle after this has been characterized by a consistent sluggish grind and long stretches of price consolidation, where momentum fades and the market struggles to advance.  Flattened Price Action Hides Cycles’ Underlying Strength A closer look at the bottom section of Crypto Con’s chart, which removes the expansion bursts, shows how Bitcoin’s price has essentially remained flat or trended lower throughout the cycle. Major sideways phases in 2023 and 2024 lasted 192 days and 238 days, respectively, offering minimum sustained upside. The current 2025 range has now extended close to 200 days, continuing the trend of market inactivity.  Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Top In? Bitcoin MVRV-Score Has The Answer Despite the drawn-out stagnation, Crypto Con maintains that this cycle is not over yet. He implies that Bitcoin’s prolonged accumulation and consolidation could be building pressure for a significant breakout. The chart also shows Bitcoin’s next potential upside target between $165,000 and $180,000. Currently the leading cryptocurrency is trading at $106,990, meaning a jump anywhere between these targets would represent price  increase of over 54%.  If previous patterns hold, BTC’s next major move may arrive swiftly, as past expansions have delivered their impact in just a few trading sessions. Until that moment arrives, Bitcoin remains locked in what is shaping up to be the slowest and possibly the most patient-testing cycle to date. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin is holding steady above its 50-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), showing signs of underlying strength despite a lack of clear directional momentum. With rising trading volume and mixed technical indicators, the next move could swing either way, keeping the market on edge. RSI Holds Neutral As Bitcoin Awaits A Clearer Signal According to Shaco AI, in a recent update on X, Bitcoin is currently hovering around $107,264.17, positioning itself just above two key moving averages. It’s nudging the 25-day SMA at $107,229.82 and holding slightly above the 50-day SMA, which sits at $107,040.81. This positioning reflects a mild bullish bias in recent sessions, keeping both bulls and bears on alert. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Risks Market Crash After Closing Below Final Weekly Resistance Looking at momentum indicators, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is resting at 53.36—firmly in neutral territory. This suggests that Bitcoin is neither overbought nor oversold at the moment, offering no strong directional clues as it keeps the market guessing. Furthermore, the Average Directional Index (ADX) adds to this indecisive mood, coming in at a soft 20.44. This low reading signals a weak trend, meaning there’s not enough force from bulls or bears to drive a clear breakout just yet. In other words, the market isn’t leaning heavily in either direction. Meanwhile, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) remains in negative territory at -137.33. Although it isn’t signaling any strong downward momentum, traders may want to stay cautious and alert for any sudden shift in the current tone. Despite the technical indecision, market activity is picking up. Bitcoin’s recent trading volume has surged to 1903.51, well above the average of 1522.43. This uptick signals a rise in interest and participation, indicating that traders are actively positioning themselves in anticipation of Bitcoin’s next move. Critical Zones At Play As Market Prepares For A Directional Push Looking at key levels, Shaco AI highlighted that resistance is at $108,789.99, which seems to be a strong level to overcome. The level marks a significant ceiling for Bitcoin, and any attempt to push higher will need solid momentum to break through. On the other hand, support lies at $104,622.02. This support level will be critical in case the price begins to retreat, as a breakdown here could open the door for further downside. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price At $110,000: Why BTC Must Break Out Of This Wedge Based on current indicators, the analyst suggests it’s wise to keep an eye out for potential movement in either direction. With volume picking up, Bitcoin may soon test either the resistance above or fall back to support, depending on how momentum develops in the coming sessions. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com

Bitcoin has experienced heightened volatility over the past few days, moving between critical levels as market participants await a clear breakout or breakdown. After testing $105,000 as support, BTC rebounded strongly and pushed back toward the $109,000 resistance zone—an area that has capped upward momentum for several weeks. While bulls remain in control of the broader structure, price action continues to show hesitation just below the all-time high, leaving the market in a state of uncertainty. Related Reading: Solana Hits New Milestone: Wallets Holding 0.1+ SOL Reach Record High To confirm the next leg of the long-term trend, Bitcoin needs to break into price discovery territory above $112,000 with strong volume and follow-through. Until that happens, the current range-bound conditions could persist, especially as traders weigh macro factors and profit-taking activity increases. Top analyst Jelle shared a technical analysis pointing to another strong bounce from the 50-day moving average and exponential moving average (MA/EMA) cluster, key dynamic support levels that have repeatedly triggered bullish reactions. This bounce reinforces the underlying strength in the current trend, suggesting that buyers continue to step in at crucial levels. As long as BTC holds above this support zone, the path toward a breakout remains intact—but confirmation is still needed. Bitcoin Prepares For Expansion Phase Bitcoin appears poised to enter a new expansive phase, with a breakout above its all-time high potentially triggering a fresh wave of bullish momentum, not just for BTC, but for the broader crypto market. After weeks of grinding just below the $112,000 resistance level, Bitcoin has struggled to push decisively higher. However, the structure remains bullish, and buyers have consistently defended key demand zones around $105,000. This ability to maintain higher lows during a period of consolidation signals strong market control by the bulls. According to Jelle, Bitcoin has just seen another powerful bounce from the 50-day moving average and exponential moving average (MA/EMA) cluster—an area that has historically acted as a dynamic support zone. Each time BTC has touched this cluster in recent months, it has rebounded with renewed strength, and the latest bounce is no exception. Jelle believes this reaction confirms the uptrend remains intact, with conditions aligning for a breakout. “The trend is up—new all-time highs are very much on the menu this week,” Jelle noted, emphasizing the importance of sustained momentum above current resistance. If Bitcoin can close decisively above $112K, it would likely ignite a surge in altcoins, many of which have lagged during BTC’s dominance-driven phase. With bulls maintaining control and technical support holding firm, the market is now watching for confirmation that Bitcoin is ready to enter price discovery once again. A successful breakout could mark the beginning of the next major leg in the crypto cycle. Related Reading: Tron Shows Adoption Strength As Volume Still Led By Big Transfers – Details BTC Tests Resistance Again After Volatile Bounce Bitcoin is once again pushing toward the critical $109,300 resistance level after bouncing strongly from the $105,000 support zone. The 12-hour chart shows a series of failed breakouts above the $109K level in recent weeks, highlighting the strength of this resistance zone. However, bulls have continued to defend higher lows, maintaining overall market structure and preventing deeper corrections. The latest candle shows a 1.93% surge, reclaiming the 50- and 100-period moving averages around $106,000, a key short-term cluster that previously acted as support. Volume also picked up during this bounce, suggesting renewed buying interest as Bitcoin tries to establish bullish momentum. Related Reading: Strong Ethereum Accumulation Detected: LTH Buying Heavy During June Consolidation Still, the rejection just below $109,300 remains a concern. If BTC fails to break and close above this range soon, the risk of a return to the $103,600 demand zone increases, especially in the face of rising volatility and profit-taking across the network. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView

According to CNBC, corporate treasuries around the globe have surpassed exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in Bitcoin (BTC) acquisitions for three consecutive quarters.  This indicates a growing interest among public companies to adopt strategies similar to those pioneered by Strategy, especially in a more favorable regulatory environment under President Donald Trump’s administration. Bitcoin Holdings Surge Data from Bitcoin Treasuries shows that public companies acquired approximately 131,000 Bitcoin in the second quarter of the year, marking an 18% increase in their BTC holdings. In contrast, exchange-traded funds managed to secure about 111,000 Bitcoin, representing an 8% growth during the same period.  Related Reading: Ethereum Indecision Masks A Bullish Setup – Here’s Why BTC Holds The Key Nick Marie, head of research at Ecoinometrics, emphasized that the motivations behind these purchases differ significantly. While institutional buyers utilizing ETFs seek exposure to BTC for a variety of reasons, Marie asserted that public companies are primarily focused on accumulating Bitcoin to enhance shareholder value. The market dynamics have also shown that public company BTC holdings increased by 4% in April, a month marked by significant volatility following President Trump’s announcement of initial tariffs. During the same time frame, ETF holdings rose by only 2%.  Marie noted that public companies are less concerned with Bitcoin’s current market price, prioritizing the growth of their Bitcoin reserves to appear more attractive to potential investors. ETFs Still Dominate In This Key Metric Despite the increasing activity from public companies, Bitcoin ETFs remain the largest holders of the cryptocurrency, collectively holding over 1.4 million BTC, or about 6.8% of the total capped supply of 21 million coins. Public companies, on the other hand, hold around 855,000 Bitcoin, approximately 4% of the total supply. The recent surge in corporate BTC accumulation is also a reflection of significant regulatory changes favoring the crypto industry. The last time ETFs outperformed public companies in Bitcoin purchases was during the third quarter of 2024, prior to Trump’s re-election. Several notable companies have entered the Bitcoin market recently. GameStop began acquiring Bitcoin after its board approved it as a treasury reserve asset earlier this year.  Similarly, health-care firm KindlyMD merged with Nakamoto, a Bitcoin investment company, while investor Anthony Pompliano’s ProCap launched its own BTC purchasing initiative and plans to go public via a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC). Direct Exposure May Ease Strategy, formerly MicroStrategy, continues to lead the charge in the Bitcoin treasury space with approximately 597,000 Bitcoin in its possession. Following closely is Bitcoin miner Mara Holdings, which holds nearly 50,000 coins.  Ben Werkman, chief investment officer at Swan BTC, remarked on the challenges smaller firms face in trying to match Strategy’s scale. He predicted that institutional capital will continue to gravitate toward Strategy due to its deep liquidity and established presence. Related Reading: BitMine Stock Soars 700% After $250 Million Raise For Ethereum Treasury Looking ahead, Marie suggested that the number of companies adhering to a BTC treasury strategy may dwindle over the next decade as the market matures.  He noted that as more firms enter the space, the individual impact of each company will likely diminish. Additionally, as Bitcoin becomes more normalized, investor constraints regarding direct exposure may fade. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com

According to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, long‑term Bitcoin holders are sitting on unrealized gains last seen during the October 2024 market dip. Right now, those holders show an average profit of 220% on coins they bought and held for the long run. That figure is surprisingly low given Bitcoin’s recent surge back above $107,000. Related Reading: Ethereum Network Awakens—Massive On-Chain Moves Signal What’s Coming Lower Profit Levels Than Previous Peaks Darkfost used the MVRV ratio — market value relative to the average cost paid by long‑term holders — to track these shifts. In March 2024, when Bitcoin pushed up to $74,500, MVRV hit 300%. Then in December 2024, at the $108,000 peak, it climbed to 350%. By contrast, today’s 220% gain reflects the fact that many long‑term holders bought in at much higher levels than earlier in the cycle. Price Needs To Rise To Match Past Gains Based on an average cost basis of $33,800, Bitcoin would need to climb back to $135,200 just to restore that 300% profit level. If the market aimed to hit the 357% mark again, prices would have to reach roughly $154,400. Both figures track with what history tells us about investor behavior — people tend to sell when profits hit big round numbers. ???? Unrealized profits of LTH continue to decline and are now approaching levels last seen during the October 2024 correction. The average unrealized profit, based on the MVRV ratio, currently stands at around 220%. That may seem high for BTC, but when compared to previous… pic.twitter.com/NeTCmXZVTY — Darkfost (@Darkfost_Coc) July 1, 2025   Historical Cycle Comparisons Looking farther back shows how much room remains. In December 2017, at the $19,500 top, long‑term holders saw unrealized profits of 4,000%. Then during the 2020/2021 cycle, Bitcoin spiked to $63,000 in April 2021 and MVRV topped out at 1,230%. By November 2021, prices hit about $68,400 but unrealized gains for long‑term holders had already fallen to 340%. An analyst’s recent outlook lines up with this math, first pegging a cycle top at $135,000 in October 2024. After reviewing new data in May 2025, they revised the target range to $120,000–$150,000 and suggested a likely peak between August and September 2025. That range overlaps with the price levels needed to bring MVRV back to earlier highs. Room For More Upside, But Watch The Risks Based on latest figures, Bitcoin is trading at $106,750, roughly flat over the last 24 hours. Lower profit margins mean fewer long‑term holders are itching to sell right now, which could leave more fuel for higher prices. Still, on‑chain numbers don’t capture the whole picture. Spot-market flows, ETF moves and wider economic shifts can all trigger sharp reversals. Related Reading: Insane Or Insightful? VC Firm Says XRP Could Reach Nearly $9,000 In Just 5 Years For now, the evidence points to a market that isn’t overheated. If Bitcoin follows past cycles, it may have farther to climb before long‑term holders lock in gains at levels seen in March or December 2024. But investors should balance these on‑chain metrics with real‑world signals — and be ready for whatever comes next. Featured image from Imagen, chart from TradingView

Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, is on track to report an impressive $14 billion in unrealized gains from its extensive Bitcoin accumulation strategy.  Co-founded by Michael Saylor, the company has successfully transformed itself from a struggling enterprise software provider into a leading leveraged Bitcoin proxy, drawing comparisons to major corporate powerhouses such as Amazon and JPMorgan Chase. Strategy Set To Post Record Profits According to a recent Bloomberg report, Strategy’s anticipated profits stem largely from the rebound in Bitcoin prices and recent changes in accounting practices that allow the firm to value its substantial cryptocurrency holdings at market rates.  Analysts project that while Strategy’s software business may only generate approximately $112.8 million in revenue for the second quarter, the surge in Bitcoin prices has significantly bolstered its financial outlook. Related Reading: BitMine Stock Soars 700% After $250 Million Raise For Ethereum Treasury This potential record profit comes after a turbulent period for the company, which faced criticism from notable investors like Jim Chanos. Chanos has publicly derided Saylor’s valuation model, describing it as “financial gibberish,” while Saylor has countered that Chanos fails to grasp the intricacies of his approach.  Despite the skepticism, Mark Palmer, an analyst at Benchmark Capital, noted Saylor’s resilience, stating that he has consistently outperformed not only his critics but also the broader market. Since Saylor initiated his Bitcoin buying spree, Strategy’s stock has skyrocketed over 3,300%. In the same time frame, Bitcoin has appreciated approximately 1,000%, while the S&P 500 has advanced around 115%. The company’s shares saw a 40% increase in the second quarter, significantly outpacing the S&P’s 11% rise. $64 Billion Bitcoin Value The recent accounting change at Strategy, which took effect in the first quarter, allows the firm to recognize the market value of its Bitcoin holdings—currently valued at about $64 billion—resulting in substantial swings in reported earnings.  Previously, the company treated its Bitcoin similar to intangible assets, which limited their ability to recognize gains unless the assets were sold. This change has positioned Strategy to capture the full benefit of Bitcoin’s price fluctuations. Related Reading: Bitcoin Shopping Spree: Strategy Continues Accumulation With $530M Purchase At the start of the second quarter, Strategy held 528,185 BTC, valued at over $43.5 billion based on market prices. An increase in the value of Bitcoin of 30% during the quarter alone contributed more than $13 billion to the company’s unrealized gains. Cumulatively, weekly purchases have brought the company closer to holding 600,000 BTC. Despite the positive outlook, the company has faced legal challenges, including several class-action lawsuits claiming that executives misled shareholders regarding the first-quarter losses. In response, Strategy has pledged to vigorously defend against these accusations. As of press time, BTC trades at $106,100, down 5% from its current record high of $111,800 during May’s rally. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

A growing number of Bitcoin and crypto market participants have fallen victim to a dangerous assumption: that summer in the crypto markets is synonymous with stagnation. However, crypto analyst Cristian Chifoi warns that this summer may follow a drastically different script. In a video analysis released on July 1, Chifoi lays out a compelling case that 2025 fits a historical pattern that has previously delivered some of Bitcoin’s strongest summer performances. Summer 2025 Could Flip Bitcoin’s Script Chifoi’s thesis is based on a concept he has long explored: Bitcoin seasonality—a recurring, cyclical behavior in Bitcoin’s price action across the calendar year, especially in relation to the four-year halving cycles. According to Chifoi, there is an identifiable seasonal window from mid-January to mid-March where Bitcoin historically shows explosive movement in one direction, only to reverse course in the subsequent months. Related Reading: Bitwise Just Sounded The Alarm—Bitcoin Could Explode Soon This pattern has held across multiple years and cycles. In 2021, for example, Bitcoin rallied from $28,000 to $60,000 between January and March before collapsing back to $28,000 by summer. The opposite occurred in 2023, when Bitcoin dumped in Q1 and reversed upwards during summer. “From January 22nd to March 11th [2024], we had a 2x on Bitcoin,” Chifoi noted. “And if the price moves in one direction in this window, it tends to do the exact opposite after that. That’s the seasonality reversal.” Chifoi highlighted this tendency across previous cycles as well, identifying the same trend flip in 2022, 2023, and most notably in 2021. Critically, Chifoi warns that while most traders are anchored to the recent past—recalling three consecutive “boring” summers—this year is historically aligned with a different kind of setup. “Nobody is prepared for this summer,” he said. “Because people only look at the past three years. But those were not the years to look at.” Instead, Chifoi compares 2025 to three historical analogues: 2013, 2017, and 2021—all years that followed a halving and saw significant summer rallies. In each of those years, after early-year volatility or corrections, Bitcoin posted dramatic gains from mid-July into early September. In 2017, Bitcoin rallied 160% in that timeframe. In 2021, the move was 77%. “The common factor in those years? They were one year after a halving, with a post-March reversal in trend,” Chifoi explained. “Now we are in the same window again. And people are not looking at it.” First Crash, Then Surge? The analyst also emphasized that current price action fits his broader fractal thesis. After Bitcoin’s local top at $109K earlier this year and the rejection that followed, the market appears to be chopping sideways—something he predicted back in late 2024. He expects this phase to continue into July 20, potentially ending with a sudden flush to the downside. But this, he argues, would be the setup for the next leg higher. “Don’t be surprised if the drop comes with a lot of bad news,” he said. “Every time there’s a dump before a rally, the media has a narrative ready. That doesn’t mean it’s real. It just means the market is doing what it always does—shake out the majority.” Related Reading: Analyst Calls For Bitcoin Crash As Price Pulls Above $108,000 — Details Chifoi also addressed broader market confluences, notably pointing out similar behavior in the S&P 500, where a corrective move in early July appears to align with his crypto timing model. He expects a pullback in both markets to precede the next upward thrust, targeting a Fibonacci resistance zone that historically acts as a pause point during price discovery. Despite his bullishness, Chifoi made it clear he’s not buying Bitcoin right now. “I already bought below $20K,” he said. “At this point, I’m watching altcoin charts, looking for pullbacks to accumulate.” He expressed frustration at the prevailing narratives circulating among large X accounts, particularly those pushing for rotating altcoins into Bitcoin under the assumption that dominance will rise indefinitely. “This is very stupid,” he said bluntly. “The market is behaving exactly as it should—for the fewest number of people to make money.” In closing, Chifoi cautioned that those who insist on saying this time is different will likely find themselves on the wrong side of the trade. “Only if this time is different will this not play out. But if you base your strategy on those words, I can guarantee you 99% of the time, you won’t make money.” As the July 20 pivot approaches, Chifoi’s analysis suggests that Bitcoin’s next move may catch a complacent market off guard. Whether or not history rhymes once more, the veteran analyst has made his stance clear: this is not a summer to sleep through. At press time, BTC traded at $106,880. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) experiences another dip, falling 5% below its record high of $111,800 reached during May’s crypto rally, analysts are probing the reasons behind its stagnation in the $100,000 to $110,000 range.  In a recent post on X (formerly Twitter), crypto analyst DanteX outlined the factors contributing to this price resistance and what it could mean for the remainder of 2025. What’s Holding Bitcoin Back? Despite the substantial influx of nearly $5 billion in Bitcoin acquired through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in just a few weeks, the price of Bitcoin has failed to surpass the $120,000 target identified by analysts. Public companies, Strategy and GameStop, have joined the ranks of institutional buyers, marking a significant shift in corporate interest toward Bitcoin. This growing demand indicates that there are substantial buyers ready to purchase at prices above $100,000. Related Reading: BitMine Stock Soars 700% After $250 Million Raise For Ethereum Treasury However, DanteX asserts that the market has been characterized by an unusual phenomenon: the analyst alleges that someone appears to be “strategically offloading” Bitcoin in the $100,000 to $110,000 range, effectively absorbing the demand and preventing upward movement.  This selling pressure seems to come from a major player—reportedly hedge funds or early investors—actively liquidating positions to offset the inflow of institutional capital. Market Exhaustion Or Distribution?  As the market enters the latter half of summer, a historically weak period for cryptocurrencies, concerns arise about liquidity and retail interest.  DanteX noted that if the Bitcoin price cannot rally now, amid significant buying and market enthusiasm, the outlook may dim as trading volumes decline.  The analyst further shared that the current price stagnation at near-record highs often indicates either market exhaustion or a distribution phase, suggesting that while demand exists, it is being countered by strategic selling. Despite the overall positive macroeconomic environment—where stock markets are soaring, real yields are declining, and liquidity is increasing—DanteX highlights that the Bitcoin price remains unresponsive.  The analyst stated that it could imply that current holders may not be ready for a breakout or are intentionally limiting potential gains. Interestingly, when Bitcoin price movements stall, capital tends to flow into altcoins, which are often viewed as higher-risk, higher-reward investments.  DanteX believes that the current skepticism surrounding the likelihood of an altcoin season amid the current market condition, could actually set the stage for one, as many investors remain “under-positioned.” Record ETF Inflows Fail To Translate Into Price Gains The role of ETFs cannot be overlooked, DanteX further said. He said that while record inflows into ETFs signal strong institutional interest, they do not always correlate with immediate price increases, especially when met with significant selling pressure.  DanteX notes that much of the exchange-traded fund exposure may be hedged or arbitraged, resulting in a complex market dynamic where asset growth does not immediately reflect in Bitcoin’s spot price. Related Reading: Bitcoin Shopping Spree: Strategy Continues Accumulation With $530M Purchase Looking ahead, the analyst suggests monitoring the activity of large wallets, especially those exhibiting selling patterns that align with recent price suppression.  Watching macroeconomic indicators, such as potential Federal Reserve rate cuts or shifts in the value of the dollar, is also said to be crucial as these factors could influence market sentiment. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The Bitcoin dominance remaining on the high side has been one of the major hindrances for the altcoin season. Going by past performances, the Bitcoin dominance would have to crash for altcoins to have a chance to rally, but with the dominance still climbing, the chances of an altcoin season remain slim. As this trend continues, a crypto analyst has predicted a possible turn in the tide for the Bitcoin dominance, predicting a crash that could give altcoins a chance. Bitcoin Dominance Rejection From Trendline Is Key Over the years, the Bitcoin dominance has been following a trendline that has often marked the point of resistance. This trendline rises from 2017 and has sloped down past 2021 and now into the year 2025. The significance behind this is the breakdown from the trendline and the Bitcoin dominance receding sharply from here. Related Reading: Pundit Warns Bitcoin Is Setting Up Liquidity Traps As It Campaigns For New ATHs Presently, the Bitcoin dominance is still sitting high above 65% at the time of this writing, but this recent rise has seen it touch the resistance trendline. According to crypto analyst CoreCrypto, this is a critical inflection point, especially on the weekly chart. More importantly, this is usually the point where dominance recedes, giving rise to altcoin dominance. Some major developments that the analyst tells investors to watch on the dominance chart include a rejection from the resistance trendline, where the dominance currently lies above 65%. There is also support for the dominance, as shown by the yellow line in the chart below. A break below this support is critical for the fall in the dominance. Another development to watch out for is for rising Ethereum strength. In the past, the Ethereum price starting to outperform the Bitcoin price has often signaled the start of the altcoin season. So, as the ETHBTC chart begins to strengthen and Bitcoin succumbs to sideways movement, it opens the door for altcoins to rally into the next altcoin season. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price At $145,000 In September? Bullish Dojis Suggest Upward Move In the event of a break from the resistance trendline, the analyst sees the possibility of a sharp decline. CoreCrypto predicts a 36.91% drop to the 42%-45% levels. This is lower compared to previous altcoin seasons, but follows the declining trend of a 50.79% drop in 2017 compared to a 45.10% drop in 2021. “If BTC.D gets rejected from this resistance again, it could mark the start of the long-awaited Altseason 2025,” the crypto analyst explained. “A breakdown from this wedge would likely result in capital rotation from BTC into altcoins — just like in previous cycles.” Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin remains within a relatively tight range, struggling to gain sufficient momentum to break the $110,000 mark. At the time of writing, the leading crypto by market cap trades at $106,437, down 1.1% over the past 24 hours and nearly 4.8% below its May all-time high. The current consolidation range between $105,000 and $107,000 has prompted close monitoring of market behavior, especially from whales and long-term holders (LTHs), as the market attempts to find its next direction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance Shows Bearish Divergence – Altseason Could Be Near Bitcoin Whales Lead Market Activity as Profit Realization Surges Recent data from CryptoQuant suggests that a significant shift in realized profits on Binance may be influencing short-term price trends. CryptoQuant analyst Crazzyblockk highlighted a major event on June 16, when over $2.6 billion in profits were realized on Binance alone, the second-largest spike of its kind on the platform. This activity was followed by immediate selling pressure and market reaction, suggesting that profit-taking from large investors remains a core factor in the current price movement. According to Crazzyblockk, the June 16 event saw a total of $4.5 billion in realized profits across centralized exchanges, with Binance accounting for nearly 58% of that volume. “This milestone is more than just a data point — it’s a reminder of Binance’s unmatched influence on global crypto markets,” the analyst wrote. He emphasized Binance’s role in price discovery and how whale behavior on the platform often serves as a proxy for broader market sentiment. As institutional participants and high-net-worth investors execute large moves on Binance, their actions can foreshadow phases of trend reversals or sustained accumulation. The data also shows the importance of tracking realized profit and loss (PnL) metrics, especially on high-volume exchanges. The event reflects what Crazzyblockk described as “strategic profit-taking by sophisticated participants,” many of whom rely on Binance’s infrastructure for executing high-liquidity trades. Long-Term Holder Selling Seen as Constructive Rotation In a separate QuickTake post, CryptoQuant analyst Yonsei Dent offered a different perspective by analyzing long-term holder activity. Dent observed that although Bitcoin has been trading sideways between $100,000 and $110,000 since May, on-chain indicators such as Spent Output Age Bands (SOAB) and Binary CDD show persistent selling from long-term holders. These are entities that have held their coins for more than six months, indicating a redistribution of supply. However, Dent argues that this selling may not imply weakness. “Despite this steady LTH selling, the price hasn’t broken down. This means the market is absorbing the sell pressure—implying new demand is coming in,” he explained. According to Dent, this dynamic, a rotation from older holders to new buyers, is common during mid-to-late stages of a bull market. Related Reading: Warning Signs? Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Take Profits as Leverage Spikes He also noted increased activity from coins held for one to three years, possibly reflecting profit-taking from previous cycle participants. Ultimately, Dent suggested the market may be undergoing a quiet redistribution, a phase that could lay the groundwork for future upside if buy-side demand remains strong. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView

The latest Crypto Market Compass from Bitwise Europe lands like a klaxon: every major gauge of risk appetite, liquidity and macro momentum is swinging in Bitcoin’s favor, and the firm argues the move could “provide a significant tailwind” for the benchmark asset. The study notes that Bitcoin already rebounded from $101,000 to about $108,000 in the past week as traders digested a potent cocktail of cooling inflation, thawing geopolitics and an increasingly dovish Federal Reserve stance. Perfect Storm Brewing For Bitcoin Bitwise’s proprietary Cryptoasset Sentiment Index has surged to its most optimistic reading since May—“now clearly signal[ing] a bullish sentiment again,” the authors write. Behind that surge lies an unprecedented torrent of capital into exchange-traded products: cumulative net inflows to global Bitcoin ETPs have reached a year-to-date record of $14.3 billion, with five consecutive sessions last week adding another $2.2 billion—or roughly 20,763 BTC—to the pile. “Cumulative net inflows … signal potential upside opportunity for the price of Bitcoin,” Bitwise says, adding that US spot ETFs are now on a 14-day winning streak that could eclipse the 16-day record set shortly after launch in early 2024. Related Reading: Warning Signs? Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Take Profits as Leverage Spikes Why are investors suddenly embracing risk? Bitwise points to what it calls a “decline in macro uncertainty.” July may deliver new US trade accords with Canada, while Washington and Tehran have struck a surprisingly conciliatory tone; former President Donald Trump has even floated lifting sanctions if Iran remains peaceful. On top of that, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has tied the timing of a resumption of rate cuts to progress on tariff talks—an alignment that leaves the door open to looser policy within weeks. The report sums up the mood: “The trifecta of declining geopolitical risks, trade policy uncertainty and potential monetary policy stimulus should continue to lift market sentiment and provide a significant tailwind for Bitcoin and other crypto assets.” *** ???????????? *** We have just published our latest ???????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????? ???????????????????? ???????????????????????????????? report for ???????????????? ????????????????! Here are the ???????????? ???????????????????????????????????? from the report that you need to know: ➡️ ????????????????’???? ????????????????????????????… pic.twitter.com/UYBRwvRE6e — André Dragosch, PhD⚡ (@Andre_Dragosch) July 1, 2025 On-chain signals look equally primed. Whale wallets (1,000 BTC or more) withdrew 8,740 BTC from exchanges last week, exchange reserves sank to 2.898 million BTC—just 14.6 % of supply—and net selling pressure on spot venues fell from $2.2 billion to only $0.5 billion. Related Reading: Bitcoin Freezes Over $100,000 As OG Whales ‘Dump On Wall Street’: Expert Derivatives paint a more nuanced picture: futures open interest slid by 20,000 BTC, and bearish perpetual funding rates hint at lingering short bias, but options markets show traders quietly standing down—put-call open interest fell to 0.59 while one-month implied volatilities eased toward 38%. Bitwise interprets the combination as “short-term consolidation” in the face of an intact longer-term uptrend. Traditional markets are also thawing. Bitwise’s Cross-Asset Risk Appetite (CARA) index jumped from 0.31 to 0.49, reinforcing evidence that capital is rotating back into growth-sensitive trades. Some 70% of tracked altcoins beat Bitcoin last week, a breadth thrust historically associated with early-cycle bull phases. In its bottom-line assessment, Bitwise stops short of price targets but leaves little doubt about direction: as long as geopolitical détente, trade breakthroughs and an accommodative Fed converge with relentless ETF inflows, “a decisive return in global risk appetite” is likely to keep Bitcoin on an upward trajectory. Should US spot ETFs secure just three more sessions of net inflows this week—surpassing their 2024 record—the firm suggests the market may discover how quickly a supply-constrained asset can react when the macro wind blows at its back. At press time, BTC traded at $106,840. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Crypto analyst Rekt Capital has warned about a potential crash for the Bitcoin price, after the flagship crypto closed below a critical resistance level. The analyst also highlighted the level that BTC needs to reclaim to invalidate this bearish setup.  Bitcoin Price Risks Crash With Weekly Close Below Resistance In an X post, Rekt Capital revealed that the Bitcoin price has closed below the final major weekly resistance at around $108,890. Based on this, he remarked that a possible early-stage Lower High resistance may be developing at around $107,720, with BTC at risk of crashing. The analyst added that Bitcoin will need to reclaim $108,890 as support on the daily to invalidate this Lower High.  Related Reading: Pundit Warns Bitcoin Is Setting Up Liquidity Traps As It Campaigns For New ATHs In an earlier X post, Rekt Capital highlighted how significant it would have been if the Bitcoin price had closed above this final major weekly resistance. He noted that BTC had never performed such a weekly close. As such, if that had happened last week, he claimed it would not only be “historic” but would enable BTC to enjoy a new uptrend into new all-time highs (ATHs). However, the Bitcoin price now appears to be on a downtrend, having failed to hold above the $107,720 level successfully. BTC had reached an intraday high of $107,970 but has since then been on a decline and is now at risk of losing the $106,800 macro level. Crypto analyst Kevin Capital has warned that BTC being below this level puts it in the danger zone.  Meanwhile, based on historical bull market cycles, Rekt Capital has suggested that the Bitcoin price still has some more upside left. In an X post, he stated that history suggests that Bitcoin may end its bull market in two to three months.   BTC Still Fuel In The Tank Despite the recent Bitcoin price drop, crypto analyst Titan of Crypto declared that the flagship crypto still has fuel in the tank. He claimed that the weekly market structure remains strong with a series of higher highs and higher lows. The analyst added that the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is pushing towards its trendline.  Related Reading: Bitcoin Price At $110,000: Why BTC Must Break Out Of This Wedge His accompanying chart showed that the Bitcoin price could still rally to as high as $140,000 between September and November later this year based on these higher highs and lows. Crypto analyst Stockmoney Lizards also recently predicted that BTC could reach as high as $145,000 by September. He alluded to dojis that had formed for the flagship crypto in its current corrective channel and declared they were bullish for Bitcoin.  At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $106,800, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

After rebounding from a local bottom of around $75,000 in April, Bitcoin (BTC) appears to be stuck in the $100,000 to $110,000 range, showing little indication of a clear directional trend. One key data point reflecting this indecision is Bitcoin’s network volume. Bitcoin Network Volume Stuck In Balance Zone According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor AxelAdlerJr, Bitcoin’s network volume has stabilized in a state of ‘stable equilibrium,’ reminiscent of the mid-2021 consolidation phase that preceded a major move. Related Reading: Bitcoin Binary CDD Hints At Healthy Consolidation, Not A Top For the uninitiated, Bitcoin network volume refers to the total value of BTC transferred across the blockchain over a specific period, typically used to gauge market activity and capital flow. Higher network volume suggests increased investor engagement and liquidity, while lower volume may indicate reduced interest or market stagnation. Notably, when BTC reached the upper end of its current range – around $110,000 – its average network volume surged to as high as $67 billion. Since then, the metric has slightly declined and now hovers around $58.7 billion. Since January 2024, Bitcoin’s average network volume has ranged between $40 billion and $80 billion. According to the CryptoQuant analyst, this corridor has become a key indicator of network activity balance and broader market sentiment. Historically, when the Bitcoin average volume approached the upper-end of the range at $80 billion, it coincided with local price peaks of $70,000 and $100,000. On the contrary, moves toward the lower-end – around $40 billion – were associated with short-term pullbacks, though these dips were often quickly bought up by market participants. Currently, the $58.7 billion reading sits near the midpoint of this range, mirroring the consolidation phase observed in mid-2021. The analyst explained: As long as the indicator remains above the $40 billion level, we can speak of a stable fundamental market condition. Rising volumes above the $80 billion mark will confirm strengthening activity and fresh capital inflow. On the other hand, a sustained drop below $40 billion will indicate weakening network demand and may be a harbinger of a deeper correction. Is BTC Preparing For A Big Move? While Bitcoin network volume suggests the market is in a state of equilibrium, some on-chain metrics hint at a potential breakout building in the background – possibly paving the way for renewed bullish momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Poised For Rally As Geopolitical Tensions Ease And Inflation Expectations Fall For example, the BTC short-term holder floor has been rising steadily in recent months, currently hovering around $98,000. This provides a strong support base, potentially preventing a sharp downside correction. However, selling pressure from miners and long-term holders is also beginning to increase – casting some uncertainty over BTC’s short-term price trajectory. At press time, BTC trades at $106,528, down 0.9% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

A crypto analyst has forecasted a powerful Wave 3 Bitcoin price rally that could take it toward new all-time highs between $160,000 and $200,000. Notably, this surge is expected to come with rising Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) and a delayed altcoin season, particularly if BTC can make a clean break above the $108,500 resistance level.  Bitcoin Price Breakout To Spark Next Bull Run The Bitcoin price is currently hovering below a critical resistance level at $108,500, and according to a crypto analyst known as ‘BigMike7335’ on the X social media platform, a clean breakout and flip of this level into support could ignite an explosive Wave 3 bull run. Based on Elliott Wave Theory and Fibonacci Extension analysis, a successful move above this threshold could open the door to a bullish price surge with potential targets set in the $160,000 to $200,000 range. Related Reading: Bitcoin Flashes Double Top Above $106,000: FVG Says A Large Crash Is Coming The analyst’s chart shows that Bitcoin has already completed its Wave 1 of a five-wave impulse move, followed by an ABC corrective Wave 2. The market is also currently consolidating, and Bitcoin’s bullish momentum appears to be rebuilding. These positive developments are supported by a rising Stochastic Relative Strength Index (RSI) from the oversold region and a neutral-to-bullish RSI, both of which point toward upward price action. Notably, the 0.618 and 1.0 Fibonacci Extensions around $117,795 and $137,421, respectively, are highlighted as interim resistance zones where price momentum could temporarily slow before continuing upward. A clean breakout above $108,500 could also place Bitcoin above a heavy volume node visible in the volume profile within the chart, suggesting less overhead resistance and a stronger potential for a price rally.  Furthermore, the analysis implies that during this powerful Wave 3 phase, Bitcoin Dominance will likely climb toward 70%. This increase in BTC.D would mean capital is concentrating in the leading cryptocurrency, which historically results in altcoins underperforming. As a result, the expected altcoin season for this cycle may be postponed, following the completion or cooling of Wave 3.  Analyst Predicts $375,000 Bitcoin Bull Run Peak Crypto analyst TechDave has just sounded the alarm on what he calls the Bitcoin “launch signal”, a rare trigger that has only appeared four times in history and each time marked the start of major bull market rallies. This signal previously appeared in October 2012, July 2016, and July 2020—all preceding major upward moves that ended in new cycle peaks.  Related Reading: Fading Spot Volumes And Muted Futures Sentiment Threaten To Send Bitcoin Below $99,000 Again Currently, the same signal is emerging this July, aligning with the previous cycle structures and reinforcing the expectation of a breakout phase. Notably, the formation has led to exponential gains, with each bull market run typically peaking months later. Following this historical pattern, TechDave now predicts a fresh cycle top for Bitcoin at $375,000. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com

Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), the leading corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC), is on the verge of reaching a significant milestone as it approaches the acquisition of 600,000 tokens. In its latest move, the company purchased 4,980 Bitcoin between June 23 and June 29 for an average price of $106,801 each, totaling approximately $531.9 million. This latest purchase has brought the company’s total Bitcoin holdings to 597,325, acquired for around $42.4 billion. Strategy Shares Surge 4.7% Despite Bitcoin’s price remaining relatively stable at around $107,000 and $107,500 over the past 24 hours, Strategy’s shares, MSTR, increased by 4.7% to $402.07 on Monday, reflecting investor confidence in the company’s financial moves. The value of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings now stands at roughly $64 billion. Related Reading: Wave 3 Ignites As XRP Breaks Structure—Analyst Says ‘Fireworks Ahead’ Funding for these latest acquisitions came through the sale of stock under various at-the-market offerings. Benchmark analyst Mark Palmer noted that the company’s Bitcoin yield, which measures the change in the ratio of its Bitcoin holdings to total shares outstanding, was 19.7% between January 1 and June 29. Strategy’s Chairman, Michael Saylor, who is often regarded as one of Bitcoin’s most vocal advocates, hinted at the recent purchase in a social media post over the weekend.  He stated, “In 21 years, you’ll wish you’d bought more,” alongside a chart illustrating the performance of Strategy’s Bitcoin portfolio since its initial investment in late 2020, which shows the aggressive purchases that have increased over the past year. Bitcoin Price Hovers Around $107,000 Interestingly, the company had made a smaller purchase of 245 Bitcoins between June 16 and June 22, considerably less than its usual massive acquisitions.  For context, Strategy had previously acquired 10,100 Bitcoins in just six days during the period from June 9 to June 15. This shows that while the company often makes large purchases, it can also vary its acquisition strategy based on market conditions. Over the past month, the market’s leading cryptocurrency has seen a notable volatility spike with prices failing to tackle its current record price of $111,800 reached during last month’s rally.  Related Reading: Solana Forms Bullish Flag On Daily Chart — Breakout Imminent? Since, Bitcoin has managed to endure subsequent price drops, with the most recent plunging BTC toward the $98,000 zone. However, the cryptocurrency has managed to record a 2.4% recovery on the weekly time frame, currently consolidating at $107,000.  Originally founded as an enterprise software firm, Strategy has transformed into a leveraged play on Bitcoin, allowing investors to gain exposure to cryptocurrency without directly owning it.  Since August 2020, the company has consistently increased its Bitcoin reserves by selling stock and debt. This has prompted criticism from analysts who believe this could be dangerous if the Bitcoin price drops below the firm’s average buying price. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

The past weekend was favorable for Bitcoin as the price was able to rebound from last week’s lows and go on to reclaim $108,000 ahead of the new week. This has boosted market sentiment once again, prompting investors to return to the table. However, as the price continues to sit in the green, one crypto analyst has sounded the alarm that the Bitcoin price may be headed for another crash toward the support area close to $100,000. Why A Bitcoin Price Crash Is Imminent In the TradingView analysis, the crypto analyst reveals the reason why the Bitcoin price could dump back downwards is because of mounting resistance. This is because, as the leading cryptocurrency moves toward new all-time highs, there is the possibility of a pushback before it is able to continue its rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Consolidating Below $108,000 But Eyes $115,000 Target In this case, the crypto analyst does expect the Bitcoin price to keep rising. But they see a lot of resistance for the digital asset just above $109,000. More specifically, at $109,500, which is still a ways away from the $112,000 needed to create a new all-time high, the cryptocurrency is expected to meet new resistance and dump back downward. This stiff resistance opens up an opportunity for market shooters to enter into the trade. According to the chart, it is possible for the Bitcoin price to actually move toward the low $100,000s. Currently, there is major support at $102,500, and if the digital asset does lose its footing, this is likely where the bulls will stage their recovery once more. Sweeping For Liquidity At Lower Ranges Another crypto analyst, Riscora, has supported this move with their own analysis, also predicting that a pullback is possible from here. This still boils down to mounting resistance as the Bitcoin price moves toward the possibility of reaching a new all-time high, and budding liquidity rises at the lower levels. Related Reading: TD Sequential Flashes Buy: Dogecoin Ready For Rebound To $0.21 The analyst explains that as liquidity has now been taken in the higher levels, after Bitcoin hit $108,000, there is bound to be a correction. This time around, they expect the correction to be much deeper given the recent bullish impulse move. The target from her sis a move back into the $107,000 territory, before moving further downward to take on the $106,400 support. Despite the expectation of a price dip, the analyst warns that the Bitcoin price remains overall bullish from here. As the crypto market ushers in the month of July, which is usually bullish for Bitcoin, it is possible that the cryptocurrency does put in a new all-time high this month, seeing as there is less than a 5% move left to beat its current $111,900 peak. Featured image from Dall.E, chart from TradingView.com

Although Bitcoin (BTC) has recorded slight gains over the past month – up 3.6% in the last 30 days – the leading cryptocurrency is experiencing a lack of Apparent Demand, indicating broader market weakness that could lead to a price slump in the near term. Bitcoin Apparent Demand Enters Negative Territory According to a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Crazzyblockk, Bitcoin’s new buyer demand is failing to absorb the combined supply pressure from freshly mined BTC and selling from long-term holders (LTHs). As a result, BTC’s Apparent Demand has turned negative. The analyst noted that the imbalance between buyer demand and excessive supply has created a high-risk environment for a near-term price correction. Notably, the $100,000 level remains an important support for the flagship digital asset. Related Reading: Bitcoin Weak Hands Exit While Smart Money Loads Up – Is A Breakout Near? For the uninitiated, Bitcoin’s Apparent Demand measures the balance between new buying interest and the supply of coins entering the market from miners and LTHs selling. When this metric turns negative, it means that the amount of BTC being sold exceeds new purchases, indicating potential market weakness and downward price pressure. BTC entering negative Apparent Demand territory can be considered a bearish development for two key reasons. First, it directly increases the “for sale” BTC supply, exerting downward pressure on the cryptocurrency’s price. Second, significant selling by LTHs – often considered seasoned and sophisticated investors – suggests that experienced players believe the crypto market has likely reached a local top and are exiting before a potential severe market downturn. The analyst added: Consequently, the market is in a vulnerable state. Any price rallies from here will likely struggle to overcome this wave of available supply, and market support may be weaker than anticipated. While not a guarantee, this on-chain signal strongly suggests a period of caution is warranted until demand shows clear signs of recovery. That said, recent on-chain analysis indicates a more optimistic outlook. According to fellow CryptoQuant analyst Avocado_onchain, the 30-day moving average (MA) of Bitcoin Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) shows signs of healthy consolidation rather than a potential local top. Some Positive Signs For BTC While BTC’s Apparent Demand might be drying up, easing global geopolitical tensions could catalyze a rally in risk-on assets, including cryptocurrencies. Further positive macroeconomic developments may also benefit BTC, potentially leading to a cycle top much higher than currently anticipated. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Surprise Bears: $100K–$110K Range Shows Rising Short Interest Another indicator negating the possibility of a major price pullback is the steadily rising short-term holder (STH) floor price, which has surged to as high as $98,000 according to the latest on-chain data. At press time, BTC trades at $107,500, down 0.5% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com

Bitcoin and Ethereum both posted modest gains in the past week, with BTC rising 6.2% and ETH up by 9.6%. However, momentum appears to have paused at the start of the new week. As of Monday, Bitcoin trades just above $107,000 after a slight 0.6% daily dip, while Ethereum has remained flat over the past 24 hours. Analysts have turned to blockchain data and macro signals for cues on where the market may head next. Related Reading: Bitcoin Freezes Over $100,000 As OG Whales ‘Dump On Wall Street’: Expert Bitcoin and Ethereum Onchain Trend Recent insights from CryptoQuant Quicktake platform contributor Amr Taha provide some context behind the price action. In a detailed post, Taha noted that Ethereum inflows to Binance have continued for five consecutive days, a trend that could suggest either rising sell pressure or repositioning by major players. At the same time, data from Bitcoin’s short-term holder (STH) Net Position Realized Cap shows a notable reversal, increasing from negative $49 billion to over $5 billion. This pattern is typically associated with increased activity from retail investors, especially during periods of upward price movement. Taha noted: Historically, spikes in (STH) occur near potential market tops, as retail investors tend to FOMO into Bitcoin rallies. While this doesn’t necessarily signal a reversal, it has often preceded short-term corrections or periods of sideways consolidation. Bitcoin’s steady climb in June, despite occasional pullbacks, appears to have encouraged smaller investors to re-enter the market. In the case of Ethereum, another CryptoQuant analyst, “crypto sunmoon,” pointed to continued accumulation by long-term holders during last month’s price consolidation. This suggests a different dynamic is at play on the Ethereum side, with more patient capital building positions amid ongoing price suppression. Long-term holder accumulation often indicates growing confidence in an asset’s future, even if current market conditions appear lackluster. US Policy and Macro Risk Add Layers to Market Outlook Beyond market behavior, external factors may also shape crypto price action. Amr Taha highlighted recent political developments in the United States, particularly former President Donald Trump’s announcement of a proposed Senate bill promising wide-reaching tax cuts. The bill, which excludes taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security income, could lead to an increase in consumer liquidity. If passed, this could impact investor appetite across both traditional and digital markets by temporarily boosting household spending power. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bears Are Taking Fresh Market Positions, But Are They Safe? However, not everybody is convinced of the bill’s long-term implications. Tesla CEO Elon Musk warned that the measure, if not accompanied by spending cuts, could expand the federal deficit and lead to economic instability over time. Large fiscal imbalances often have ripple effects on monetary policy, potentially affecting interest rates, inflation expectations, and risk sentiment, all of which can influence investor behavior in crypto markets. Taha concluded: Geopolitical disturbances can significantly impact investor sentiment. In response, investors might reconsider their positions in asset markets, possibly moving away from riskier assets and equities toward more stable options like bonds or safe-haven currencies. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView