The ongoing Bitcoin bull market has sparked renewed interest in on-chain metrics to fully understand the bullish trend behind the scenes. Earlier today, Avocado Onchain, a CryptoQuant analyst, shared his perspective on Bitcoin’s market performance, focusing on the widely-used Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio. This indicator is often used to assess Bitcoin’s valuation about its realized cap, which represents the aggregated value of all Bitcoin based on its last movement price. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hits S2F Threshold: Should You Hold Tight Or Take Profits? What Bitcoin MVRV Metric Currently Signals According to Avocado Onchain, the MVRV ratio provides key insights into market cycles. Historically, when the MVRV ratio dips below 1, it signals a market bottom, while values above 3.7 have coincided with potential market tops. As Bitcoin approaches new all-time highs, the MVRV ratio’s behavior suggests a shift in market sentiment from skepticism to optimism. This raises critical questions about how investors should interpret these metrics during a bull cycle. The MVRV ratio, calculated by dividing Bitcoin’s market cap by its realized cap, offers insights into whether the asset is undervalued or overvalued relative to its historical averages. Avocado Onchain emphasized that the ratio might not necessarily reach 3.7 in this cycle, as seen in prior bull markets, but could still signal overvaluation at lower levels. He noted that the ratio’s peaks and troughs have shown a narrowing trend, with higher lows and lower highs. MVRV Historical Patterns Drawing from historical patterns, the CryptoQuant analyst noted: In past cycles, detailed analysis of historical charts shows that in 2017, the MVRV ratio first reached 3.7, but Bitcoin’s price didn’t peak until six months later. Similarly, in 2021, the peak followed about three months after the ratio hit 3.7. Avocado Onchain suggested that while the MVRV ratio signals “overvaluation,” it does not guarantee an imminent price peak. Instead, the ratio often lingers around the overvaluation range, reflecting ongoing bullish sentiment with price fluctuations. Related Reading: Bitcoin Officially In Overheated MVRV Zone, Rally End Near? To mitigate risks, Avocado Onchain advises against relying solely on the MVRV ratio for investment decisions. He advocates for a gradual selling strategy as the ratio rises, allowing investors to balance potential gains with reduced exposure to market corrections. The analyst particularly concluded, stating: Asset prices often enter phases of extreme overvaluation that cannot be fully explained by numerical data alone. During a bull market, it’s essential to use not only on-chain metrics but also factors like investor sentiment, macroeconomic trends, and government policies to develop a well-rounded. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has so far continued to level up in terms of price performance, hitting new highs consistently for the past week. As a result of this, investors seem to be curious about whether it’s time to secure profits or stay bullish for the next leg of the cycle. A recent analysis by a CryptoQuant analyst, known as Darkfost, sheds light on this and the current market sentiment, offering insights into potential strategies for navigating the current phase of Bitcoin’s cycle. Related Reading: Analyst Reveals Bitcoin’s Hidden Price Zones: Key Levels Investors Need To Watch Time to Secure Profits? Darkfost’s observations center around the S2F reversion metric, a tool used to gauge market conditions and identify strategic moments for buying or selling Bitcoin. According to the analyst, this metric has reached 2.5, a historical indicator that signals the market is “heating up.” While this doesn’t suggest Bitcoin has reached its cycle peak, it indicates that the asset is entering a phase where profit-taking could be a wise strategy. Darkfost wrote: Currently, the S2F reversion has reached the 2.5 level, which historically suggests that starting to take some profits may be prudent. This doesn’t indicate we’ve reached the cycle’s top, but it means that the market is beginning to heat up but stay bull. Notably, the S2F (Stock-to-Flow) reversion metric is derived from Bitcoin’s stock-to-flow model, which compares the asset’s existing supply with its annual production rate. This model has historically provided insights into Bitcoin’s valuation and potential price movements. The S2F reversion specifically measures deviations from this model, with higher levels typically indicating overbought conditions in the market. While the S2F metric for Bitcoin has now reached 2.5 level, Darkfost has pointed out when to take profit, noting: The next target for further profit-taking would likely be when the S2F reversion metric reaches the 3.0 level. Bitcoin Market Performance Bitcoin remains in a bullish trend. Earlier today, the asset reached a new all-time high (ATH) of $98,310 bringing its year-to-date price performance to over 160%. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Warns of Potential Bitcoin Market Shift as Exchange Reserves Decline However, at the time of writing, BTC has faced a little price correction from its peak as it trades for $97,236, down by 1.2% from its ATH but still up by 3.1% in the past day. Analysts say the asset is primed for a further rally to the six-figure price mark. Ali, one of the prominent crypto analysts in the space, for instance has recently highlighted that with Bitcoin breaking out of a bullish flag on the lower time frames, the asset could reach $100,000 as soon as today. #Bitcoin $BTC could reach $100,000 today as it appears to be breaking out of a bull flag on the lower timeframes. pic.twitter.com/UKKcXilHO4 — Ali (@ali_charts) November 21, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin price movements often correlate with large-scale investors’ actions, commonly called “whales.” These individuals or entities hold between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, and their trading behavior is a critical indicator of market trends. With that being said, recent data indicates that these whales have been increasing their Bitcoin holdings, which has fuelled momentum in the Bitcoin market thereby capturing the interest of more investors. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Market Is Still In An ‘Healthy Growth’ Phase, Says Analyst—Here’s Why BTC Whales Continue Accumulation: Implications and Risks A CryptoQuant analyst known as Datascope recently highlighted the trend of increasing BTC whale accumulation, noting that a positive 30-day percentage change supports the accumulation of Bitcoin by whales. This trend according to the analyst, represents a shift that can significantly impact Bitcoin’s price trajectory. When these major players accumulate, it often signals more liquidity in the market and a likely impending price surge. Datascope discloses that the correlation between whale balances and Bitcoin’s price “highlights the growing dominance of these investors in the market.” The CryptoQuant analyst added: Whale Accumulation and Its Impact on Price Whales accumulating Bitcoin is seen as a significant signal of an upward price trend. It indicates a period of market confidence and sufficient liquidity. Additionally, the 30-day Simple Moving Average (SMA30) helps analyze the long-term tendencies of whale behavior. A positive slope in the moving average suggests potential for upward price momentum. However, datascope mentioned that there are potential caveats to this accumulation trend. He noted that the accumulation phase can lead to upward momentum, but it inherently carries the risk of a sharp reversal when these large holders decide to sell their assets. Selling pressure from whales, especially if executed suddenly, could lead to rapid price declines, reversing gains during accumulation. The analyst concluded by noting: Thus, monitoring whale accumulation and selling cycles is critical. Understanding the current market phase and timing exits correctly are key success factors for investors. Bitcoin Market Performance While the accumulation of BTC from whales continues, the asset appears to be gearing up for another rally. It is worth noting that prior to today’s price performance, Bitcoin has remained just above $90,000 following its sharp decrease away from its all-time high (ATH) of $93,477 registered last week. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Hit 5-Year Low—What Does This Signal? However, today, the asset is beginning to see a return of upward momentum. Particularly, at the time of writing, Bitcoin has increased by 1.9% to a current trading price of $91,635, bringing it to a 1.7% decrease away from its ATH. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Last week, Bitcoin saw consistent upward momentum, leading to the asset breaching multiple resistances to achieve a peak of $93,477 finally. However, ever since, BTC has seen a price decrease and appears to maintain stability above $90,000 while showing signs of controlled market sentiment. Amid this price performance, a CryptoQuant analyst known as G a a h recently shared his perspective on Bitcoin’s current market behavior, focusing on an important metric such as the Short-Term Holders Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) to reveal whether the asset still has more room for growth. Related Reading: Bitcoin Exchange Reserves Hit 5-Year Low—What Does This Signal? What The STH SOPR Metric Suggest For Bitcoin The Short-Term Holders Spent Output Profit Ratio metric, which tracks the profitability of Bitcoin held by short-term holders, has revealed a trend of moderate optimism in the market, according to G a a h. The analyst elaborated that unlike past cycles marked by euphoric price spikes, the STH SOPR remains within a “middle region,” far from indicating extreme greed. This suggests that while some investors are taking profits, the current market environment remains stable, with room for further upward movement. The relationship between the SOPR indicator and Bitcoin’s 30-day moving average further emphasizes this point. According to the CryptoQuant analyst, short-term holders take measured profits without overwhelming the market with sell pressure, signaling “healthy growth.” Historical data shows that when the SOPR enters the extreme greed range, Bitcoin often encounters significant market resistance, leading to corrections. Conversely, accumulation tends to occur when the indicator reflects extreme fear, often marking key price bottoms. The analyst’s observations suggest that Bitcoin remains in a transitional growth phase, with investors carefully adjusting their positions as the price trends upward. G a a h wrote: At the moment, the behavior of the SOPR suggests a phase of healthy growth, with moderate optimism. This intermediate position may reflect a market in transition, where investors continue to adjust their positions as the Bitcoin price advances. Key Indicators to Watch in Bitcoin’s Market Behaviour While the SOPR currently suggests a balanced market, as reported by the analyst, he also advised investors to monitor the movements of the indicator closely in the coming weeks. The analyst noted: If it quickly approaches the extreme greed range, it could be a sign of more aggressive profit-taking and a possible trend reversal. G a a h also added that this phase of moderate optimism, if sustained, could create opportunities for continued upside potential, but risk management remains a crucial aspect of navigating this market environment. Related Reading: Binance Dominates As Bitcoin Futures Volume Hits New Peaks Amid Historic Price Rally The CryptoQuant analyst concluded: While the SOPR indicates that the top has not yet been reached, the balance between optimism and caution is key to maximizing gains and protecting capital from high price volatility. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has continued its bullish momentum streak, reaching a new all-time high on November 13 and triggering a wave of activity across the crypto market. In particular, the futures market has been significantly impacted, with a surge in trading volume for the BTC/USDT pair. This increase has highlighted an intense period of market engagement, with leading exchanges, particularly Binance, at the forefront of this trading frenzy. Related Reading: Bitcoin Weekly RSI Entering Power Zone – Last Time BTC Soared 80% Record Trading Volumes And Market Volatility Risks A CryptoQuant analyst known as Crazzyblockk shared insights into the trading frenzy phenomenon, noting that the futures market for Bitcoin has become “exceptionally overheated.” According to the analyst’s recent post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, trading volume has surged across both spot and futures markets on major centralized exchanges. The cumulative trading volume for BTC/USDT across all major platforms has reached an amount of roughly $129 billion, with Binance contributing a substantial $50.2 billion to this figure. The surge in futures trading activity has raised important questions about market stability and the potential for heightened volatility. As Crazzyblockk explained, when Bitcoin’s derivatives market experiences rapid growth, particularly in the futures segment, there is often a tendency for heightened market fluctuations. The CryptoQuant analyst added: While this can briefly boost demand, it often leads to minor pullbacks and sharp fluctuations. The analyst emphasized that the “overheated” state of the market warrants caution from investors and traders. In his words: Given the current climate, it would be wise for investors and traders to exercise caution, refrain from rushed speculation, and await a period of price stability before making further moves. Outlook On Bitcoin Bitcoin is facing a noticeable decline in price, dropping by 6.1% in the past day to a current trading price of $87,977. This ongoing drop in price comes after it recently achieved an all-time high above $93,000, as recorded yesterday. With BTC back to trading below the $88,000 region, the asset has now decreased 5.9% away from its peak. While the reason behind this ongoing correction is not certain, renowned crypto analyst Ali has recently highlighted an interesting BTC trend behind the scenes. Related Reading: Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Move Millions To Binance—Is A Market Correction Imminent? In a post uploaded earlier today on X, the analyst reveals that roughly $5.42 billion of Bitcoin profits has now been realized, pushing the asset’s sell-side risk ratio to 0.524%. Ali warned to “stay alert and proceed with caution.” Meanwhile, another analyst known as Javon Marks has also noted in one of his recent posts that while further upward momentum is still being witnessed with Bitcoin hitting a peak yesterday, “target now continues to be at $116,652 which is visioned to come at even greater speeds and with greater power than the first.” Some of the greatest, most precise, and simplistic analysis that you will probably see on #Bitcoin (BTC) and Crypto ♟️! December 2022 @ ≈$16,782, we noticed bullish signals as well as a price breakout holding which signaled to us the $67,559 target which at the time was over… https://t.co/qrJv2WPwnG pic.twitter.com/7ZkeUV13UY — JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) November 13, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has reached a major milestone by surpassing the $90,000 price mark, marking a significant moment in its ongoing bullish rally. The price surge has drawn the attention of existing investors and attracted a new wave of market participants. This influx is evidenced by the increase in UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) Age Bands. This metric tracks the distribution of Bitcoin holdings by age, according to an analysis shared by CryptoQuant analyst Shiven Moodley. This development reflects heightened interest and engagement in the Bitcoin market. Moodley’s analysis revealed that a high percentage of market participants are currently profitable, as indicated by the UTXO profit percentage metric. However, despite this strong market performance, long-term holders appear to maintain their positions even as the derivatives market becomes increasingly leveraged. Related Reading: Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Move Millions To Binance—Is A Market Correction Imminent? Samuel Edyme Profitability Metrics Signal Market Momentum One of the key insights highlighted by Moodley is the positive Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). This indicator suggests that many Bitcoin transactions are occurring at a profit, reflecting an optimistic market sentiment and providing a foundation for potential further price increases. However, Moodley pointed to a developing “mania phase” in the market, evidenced by the growing number of options market call contracts set to expire over the next two months. This surge in call contracts indicates that many traders are betting on continued upward momentum, potentially driving further speculative activity. The CryptoQuant analyst also discussed the implications of probability models that track Bitcoin’s price movements over time. According to these models, with a lag of 500 days, Bitcoin has breached two standard deviations at the $90,000 level. The next significant price marker, represented by the third standard deviation, according to Moodley is currently projected to be around $101,000. This suggests that, while Bitcoin’s current upward trajectory is notable, the potential for further price gains remains. Bitcoin Market Performance Bitcoin appears to be now seeing a cool off in its recent bullish momentum. Particularly, following a consistent week of new highs reaching a peak of $93,477 yesterday, BTC has since faced a major pullback in price, bringing its price to trade as low as below $89,000, as of today. At the time of writing, the asset currently trades for $88,878, down by 2.9% in the past day. Regardless, BTC seems to still be in an uptrend with a past week performance of nearly 20%. Notably, while the market environment still reflects strong bullish sentiment, there are risks to be aware of. As highlighted by Moodley, the increased leverage in the derivatives market, combined with rising call options activity, could lead to heightened volatility in the BTC market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crosses $93,000 – Is There More Room for Gains or Are We Nearing a Peak? Overleveraged markets are historically prone to corrections, especially when market sentiment shifts rapidly. Therefore, while many market participants may currently be in profit, maintaining caution is worth considering. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has continued with its strong bullish momentum, trading at highs that have never before been seen. Today, the asset has achieved a new all-time high of roughly $93,477. This ATH was achieved not long ago following an earlier dip today to $85,000. However, at the time of writing, BTC has seen a slight pullback, now down 0.5% from its peak to currently trade at $92,544, albeit still up 5.6% in the past day. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Now Overheating? Key Metrics Reveal Crucial Insights For Investors Bitcoin Finally At Its Peak? Amid the price surge in BTC, market analysts have offered their perspectives on Bitcoin’s potential trajectory. Crazzyblockk, a CryptoQuant analyst, addressed questions regarding whether Bitcoin has reached its peak by evaluating market profitability indicators. According to Crazzyblockk, two key metrics are essential for assessing Bitcoin’s profitability: the number of Bitcoin addresses currently in profit and the overall profitability rate for these addresses. The analyst observed that nearly all Bitcoin addresses are profitable, indicating heightened market risk. However, he also noted that current profit margins across different holding periods remain below those observed during previous bull markets, such as the 2019-2020 and 2021 uptrends, where profit margins reached 800-900%. Despite concerns about potential short-term price corrections due to elevated market risks, Crazzyblockk expressed confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term upward trajectory. He emphasized that strategies such as Dollar-Cost Averaging (DCA) and maintaining a long-term investment approach could benefit capital growth in this environment. More Room For Gains? In a separate analysis, CryptoQuant analyst Avocado Onchain highlighted miner activity and its implications for Bitcoin’s price movement. Avocado noted that some Bitcoin miners have already begun taking profits, but this does not necessarily indicate a weakening of Bitcoin’s overall upward potential. He pointed to the Miner Position Index (MPI), which tracks Bitcoin outflows from miners’ wallets relative to the annual average. A high MPI suggests increased miner selling activity, which can signal that Bitcoin’s price may be approaching a cycle peak. Related Reading: Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Move Millions To Binance—Is A Market Correction Imminent? So far, recent data showed a slight increase in MPI as Bitcoin reached new all-time highs. Avocado explained that this could represent early positioning for the next market cycle. By converting MPI to a 30-day moving average, clearer signals emerge regarding market cycles. The analyst identified patterns of profit-taking by miners near cycle tops, often followed by subsequent price increases and, eventually, longer-term downtrends. Avocado Onchain also highlighted additional data supporting the potential for further Bitcoin price growth. The hashrate and mining difficulty, key indicators of mining activity and network security, have reached new highs, reflecting strong miner participation and overall network health. This data, combined with continued market interest and growing liquidity, suggests that Bitcoin’s price could experience further upside in this cycle, as suggested by Avocado’s analysis. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has been on a major upward trajectory, recently hitting an all-time high (ATH) of above $89,000. As this milestone was crossed, a notable trend emerged with short-term holders transferring their holdings to major exchanges, particularly Binance. According to CryptoQuant analyst Joao Wedson, this behavior suggests that investors with shorter time horizons may be positioning themselves to take profits, leading to potential selling pressure in the market. What To Watch Out For Wedson highlighted that the concentration of Bitcoin deposits to a single exchange like Binance is worth close monitoring, as it could impact liquidity and price stability on the platform, potentially reverberating through the broader market. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Now Overheating? Key Metrics Reveal Crucial Insights For Investors The CryptoQuant analyst emphasized three areas for market participants to watch closely. First, tracking the flow of BTC to exchanges, especially Binance, can provide insights into the potential scale of selling intent among short-term holders. As more coins flow to a major exchange, the potential for market impact rises, making it crucial to gauge the extent of any impending sell-off. Second, the impact on price volatility is expected to be significant as concentrated selling or profit-taking on Binance could create sharp movements, providing both challenges and opportunities for traders. The final area of focus, according to Wedson, is anticipating potential price movements based on these inflows and understanding how they may influence the broader market’s behavior. Bitcoin Market Correction Imminent? Meanwhile, further insights were provided by another CryptoQuant analyst known as “caueconomy.” This analyst pointed out that Bitcoin’s breakout of its previous all-time high has initiated a price discovery process. With this milestone, the market has seen heightened open interest levels, with more than $16 billion added to futures positions over the past week. This surge indicates a rise in leveraged positions, which can lead to heightened risk of corrections in the short term. Related Reading: Bitcoin Buying Pressure Rises, But Here’s Why A Pullback Could Be Coming However, the analyst emphasized that the market’s underlying fundamentals appear much more strong this time around, suggesting that any potential short-term corrections could be viewed as natural adjustments. Rather than signalling a broader downturn, these corrections may offer buying opportunities for investors looking to enter or accumulate during periods of market pullback. Bitcoin trades for $86,441, which has increased by 2.3% in the past day. Notably, this current trading price marks a 3.6% decline from BTC’s latest achieved all-time high of $89,864 earlier today. According to renowned crypto analyst known as Ali on X, key support levels for Bitcoin to watch are between $83,250 – $85,800 and $72,880 – $75,520. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
A recent analysis from BaroVirtual, a CryptoQuant analyst, offers a nuanced perspective on the current state of the Bitcoin market. According to the analyst, fluctuations in the Coinbase premium—a key metric that tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other exchanges—can offer significant insights. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs See Historic Surge – Institutions Go Bullish On BTC With $1.38 Billion Record Inflows Retail Leverage And Premiums: A Double-Edged Sword Rising or elevated Coinbase premiums typically suggest intense buying pressure, indicating strong medium-term sentiment for Bitcoin. However, BaroVirtual warns that in the short term, these high premiums may present a double-edged sword, as they often precede a localized downward movement in Bitcoin’s price. This phenomenon stems from market dynamics, as high premiums reflect surges in demand that can lead to overheating. When this occurs in combination with a high volume of leveraged retail positions and an excessive number of long contracts, the risk of a market pullback increases. Notably, BaroVirtual pointed out that this scenario has been evident in some Asian exchanges, where traders’ aggressive positions and leveraged setups further amplified market vulnerabilities. The analyst’s observations extend beyond the Coinbase premium to the broader market context. When premiums soar, they signal strong demand and positive sentiment among investors. This can provide a floor for Bitcoin’s price, strengthening support levels and creating a bullish sentiment over the medium term. However, in the short run, the influx of highly leveraged retail positions can destabilize market balance, leading to sharp corrections. High leverage implies that even minor price swings can force liquidations, exacerbating downward price movements. The CryptoQuant analyst emphasized leverage dynamics’ major role in determining bullish trends’ sustainability. Retail traders’ aggressive positioning on some Asian exchanges reflects a growing risk appetite, which may lead to sudden market shifts if sentiment turns or if premiums dip. Bitcoin Nears $100,000 After previously trading just above $83,000 earlier today, Bitcoin’s price has now pushed further. So far, BTC has achieved a latest all-time high of (ATH) of $84,929 less than an hour ago. However, the asset has seen a slight correction with a current trading price of $84,929, at the time of writing. Regardless of this slight pullback, with the current bullish momentum in Bitcoin, it is evident that the asset could continue this rally and rise above $85,000 soon, bringing it closer to a six digit ATH of $100,000 and beyond. Related Reading: Bitcoin Stock To Flow Model Reveals $500,000 Price Target Renowned crypto analyst known as Javon Marks on X has highlighted that Bitcoin still has “more upside coming” especially since it recently broke above a descending broadening wedge pattern. Prices of $BTC (Bitcoin), after breaking out of this descending broadening wedge pattern, have been climbing MAJORLY, moving roughly +24% since but there can still be much more upside coming! The measured breakout target is another near 20% away just around the $100,000 mark and… https://t.co/F01HbCd1kv pic.twitter.com/k0bv9xqUwK — JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) November 11, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Amid Bitcoin’s pursuit to hit the six figures all-time high (ATH), a CryptoQuant analyst known as aytekin, has shared a comprehensive analysis on tools to assess Bitcoin’s market temperature, focusing on distinguishing useful from potentially misleading metrics. According to aytekin, investors’ concerns often center around Bitcoin’s ability to reach new peaks and when it might experience a market top. To navigate these questions, he highlighted two charts he pays less attention to for gauging market sentiment: “open interest” and the “supply in profit” metric. Related Reading: Analyst Reveals Bitcoin Key Support Levels For Reaccumulation – Details Challenges With BTC Key Metrics The analyst elaborated that establishing a causal link between price and open interest remains challenging, as historical data indicates that price fluctuations tend to drive changes in open interest levels rather than the reverse. Furthermore, the analyst reveals that with the growth of futures markets and Bitcoin’s adoption, higher levels of open interest are anticipated in the coming years. Another metric aytekin views as potentially misleading is the “supply in profit,” which measures overall network profitability. This metric correlates with Bitcoin’s nominal price, often leading to extreme spikes above 95% in profitability during ATH periods. However, aytekin suggests that reaching new highs would be problematic if extreme profitability consistently triggered major sell-offs. Instead, he recommends considering how long these high-profitability levels persist, noting that historically, such conditions have lasted up to a year within broader market cycles. Credible Metric Suggests Overheating Bitcoin? In contrast, the analyst emphasized two metrics he finds valuable for tracking Bitcoin’s market sentiment: the funding rate and the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR). The funding rate, which tracks the cost paid between long and short positions in futures markets, serves as a tool to identify “overzealous” market optimism. Aytekin believes monitoring this metric offers better insights than open interest for assessing market conditions. As of now, he notes that funding rates are not signaling extreme market behavior. The analyst reveals that the SOPR metric clarifies profitability trends, particularly when smoothed using a 30-day moving average. Aytekin highlights that profitability alone is not inherently risky unless it coincides with supply movements within the market. The CryptoQuant analyst reveals that current SOPR levels indicate a market that, while showing signs of profitability, does not exhibit symptoms of overheating. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Be Ready For ‘Phase 2’ Of This Historical Bull Pattern Meanwhile, Bitcoin has been trading for $81,838, up by 2.4% in the past day. This trading price marks a 0.6% decline from the asset’s ATH of $82,379 created earlier today. When writing, the asset’s market capitalization sits above $1.6 billion with a 24-hour trading volume of $90.6 billion. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
CoinShares, a leading crypto asset management firm, released its latest “Digital Asset Fund Flows Weekly Report,” highlighting a notable surge in investment inflows following the US elections. $116 Billion Record High Crypto Fund Flows The report revealed that digital asset investment products attracted $1.98 billion in inflows, bringing global assets under management (AuM) to a […]
The Ethereum Foundation (EF) released its annual financial report earlier today, revealing substantial holdings and a commitment to transparency and long-term sustainability. Ethereum Foundation Holdings As of October 31, 2024, the EF disclosed that its treasury holds approximately $970.2 million, with $788.7 million in crypto assets and $181.5 million allocated to non-crypto investments and assets. […]
Bitcoin recent price movement of continuous uptrend has drawn the attention of market participants and analysts as it edges closer to creating a new all-time high, blasting through critical resistance levels. Amid this, a CryptoQuant analyst known as TraderOasis provided an in-depth analysis of Bitcoin’s market earlier today, suggesting the trajectory the asset could head to next. Related Reading: Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Bull Run: MVRV Metric Hints At $95K To $120K Target Analysis On Bitcoin Oasis explained that his previously outlined bullish scenario for the Range 0.5 structure had played out successfully, emphasizing the importance of Bitcoin’s previous all-time high (ATH) level as potential support. This level, represented by the blue line in his chart analysis (shown above), could be a critical marker for Bitcoin’s next phase, the analyst reveals. The analyst also highlighted the significance of the Coinbase Premium Index, which often indicates strong buying demand on Coinbase relative to other exchanges. Oasis noted that the bullish shift in this indicator was accompanied by an upward price move, marking an important resistance zone that Bitcoin needs to overcome to sustain its momentum. Furthermore, he pointed out that the open interest indicator, which tracks the total number of outstanding derivative contracts, was moving alongside the price. According to him, this is a positive signal indicating that market participation remains strong without signs of instability or excessive leverage. Rising Funding Rates And Exchange Netflow Observations TraderOasis also delved into another key metric: funding rates. These rates reflect the cost of holding long positions in perpetual futures contracts and can signal market sentiment. The analyst observed that funding rates had begun to rise again, suggesting that market participants are increasingly confident about further upward movement. However, he cautioned that this sentiment had not yet reached extreme levels that could indicate overheating or a potential correction. The analyst mentioned monitoring these levels is essential, as excessive funding rates often signal market tops or heightened volatility. Another aspect of analysis was the activity observed in exchange netflow for spot exchanges. According to Oasis, a significant sell-off was reflected in this indicator, which measures the net flow of Bitcoin into and out of exchanges. Given the potential for increased volatility, the analyst interpreted this as a signal to consider taking profits on long trades. This aligns with previous market patterns where high net inflows or outflows often foreshadow shifts in market sentiment and price direction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Path To $85K: Analysts Say It’s Behaving ‘As Predicted’ Meanwhile, Bitcoin so far appears to have found stability above $75,000 price mark following its latest ATH of $76,872 yesterday. At the time of writing, the asset currently trades for $75,820, up by 0.9% in the past day. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
The recent US elections on November 5 have reshaped the political space and appear to have significant implications for the cryptocurrency industry. Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong expressed optimism in a post-election “reflection”, emphasizing that the political winds gradually shift toward digital assets. Related Reading: Crypto Advocate Bernie Moreno Takes Ohio Senate Seat, Vows Regulatory Clarity […]
Bitcoin market trend may be on the verge of a significant shift, according to a recent analysis shared by CryptoQuant analyst Percival. Percival described Bitcoin’s current phase as “chopsolidation,” a term used to describe a period of minimal directional movement where price consolidation occurs without a clear trend. This period, he suggests, may be drawing to a close, with an imminent market movement expected in the coming weeks. The Chopsolidations metric, as Percival notes, doesn’t predict the direction of Bitcoin’s next move. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Offload Over 177k BTC: Is A Price Surge Or Correction Next? Instead, it assesses the exhaustion level of the current trend, helping to determine whether Bitcoin’s price is due for a reversal or continuation. Percival’s analysis highlights that while there are indicators of strength at various points, the market remains divided on Bitcoin’s next direction. So far, some investors believe that recent accumulation is sufficient to push Bitcoin past its all-time high, while others expect a more cautious upward movement or even a potential correction. Assessing Bitcoin’s Support Levels And Potential Price Rebound Percival’s analysis further points to two key periods in September and October where Bitcoin established notable support levels, marked by brief but significant price stability zones. These areas, which he identified as orange zones on his chart (shared above), served as points where Bitcoin’s price “reloaded” — essentially, zones where demand was strong enough to halt price declines temporarily. With the current price hovering near these support levels, Percival suggests that the market may find a new bottom if Bitcoin faces any short-term downward pressure. This support could create a foundation for upward movement in the weeks ahead. The Chopsolidations indicator, according to the CryptoQuant analyst’s breakdown, is showing signs of readiness for a strong trend based on weekly and monthly readings. Although he did not specify a particular directional bias, he noted that the current market strength could be enough to drive Bitcoin’s price upwards if additional demand or a favorable macroeconomic environment aligns with market sentiment. This trend could play out over the short term, where sufficient market activity might lift Bitcoin’s price. Bitcoin Continuous Struggle To Make A Major Move So far, Bitcoin’s price has continued to face a struggle to make a significant move, especially to the upside. Instead, the asset has seen a form of calmness in volatility following its recent decline below the $70,000 price mark. Particularly, at the time of writing, the asset currently trades for $68,721—a price region BTC has remained quite stable for the past 3 days since its most recent decline. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin recent price movements amid the US presidential election 2024 have led to its price currently standing at around $69,092, following a drop below the $70,000 level last week. This relatively low volatility has marked a calm period for Bitcoin, allowing it to stabilize in the $68,000 to $69,000 range over the past few days. The steady price trend has prompted analysts to forecast possible upward movement, pointing to various technical patterns and indicators suggesting a potential rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin May Slide To $65,000 As Critical Support Level Fails – Details 30% Bitcoin Rally In Play Among the analysts forecasting bullish momentum for Bitcoin, a renowned crypto analyst known as Captain Faibik recently shared insights on X regarding a technical pattern called a “Descending Broadening Wedge.” Faibik highlighted that Bitcoin has completed a breakout from this pattern on a weekly chart and is now in a “retest” phase. A Descending Broadening Wedge is typically considered a bullish reversal pattern in technical analysis. The pattern forms as price action creates lower highs and lower lows within diverging trendlines, implying that the downward momentum may weaken. If the price breaks upward through the resistance, it can indicate that the asset will likely see a price surge. Faibik expects a successful retest of the recent breakout of this pattern from BTC and has set a midterm target of $88,000, forecasting a potential 30% increase in Bitcoin’s value by the end of the year. Bullish Divergence And Long-Term Holder Behaviour Alongside Faibik’s observations, another well-known analyst, Javon Marks, pointed to signs of bullish divergence on Bitcoin’s chart. In technical analysis, bullish divergence occurs when an asset’s price makes lower lows while a technical indicator, such as the Relative Strength Index (RSI), creates higher lows. This divergence can suggest a potential reversal as buying momentum begins to build. According to Marks, this divergence indicates that Bitcoin’s bulls may be preparing for a move, which could translate to regained dominance in the market. Marks’ view supports the possibility of an upward trend in the medium term, even if the short-term market conditions seem uncertain. Meanwhile, IntoTheBlock, a prominent blockchain analytics firm, recently reported interesting trends in Bitcoin’s holder’s balance metrics. Related Reading: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Offload Over 177k BTC: Is A Price Surge Or Correction Next? According to their data, while long-term Bitcoin holders are currently selling, the scale of these sell-offs appears moderate compared to previous bull cycles. In prior cycles, long-term holders often sold more aggressively, signaling a peak in market sentiment. This time, however, the selling trend among long-term holders has been more restrained, which may reflect a cautious approach amid Bitcoin’s current market conditions. IntoTheBlock speculates that this cautious behavior could signal a shift in the cycle dynamics, potentially pointing to a new market phase for Bitcoin. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
The Bitcoin price action has sparked renewed interest among analysts and investors as the cryptocurrency approaches a major event (the US election) later in November. A CryptoQuant analyst known as CoinLupin recently provided an analysis on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, focusing on Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio, a metric often used to gauge Bitcoin’s value compared to its on-chain fundamentals. With macroeconomic factors creating uncertainty in the crypto markets, CoinLupin shared insights on the significance of MVRV for evaluating Bitcoin’s current market position. Related Reading: Mt. Gox Stirs Market with 500 Bitcoin Transfer to Unknown Wallets—What’s Next for BTC? MVRV And Historical Cycle Peaks The MVRV ratio, currently around 2, indicates that Bitcoin’s market value is approximately double its on-chain realized value, reflecting the average price paid by all asset holders. CoinLupin explained that the key lies in observing trend changes within the MVRV ratio over time rather than fixating on this absolute value. Using the 365-day Bollinger Band for MVRV along with the 4-year average—a common reflection of Bitcoin’s cyclical trends—the analyst noted that the MVRV ratio is currently above the long-term average and recently exceeded its 365-day moving average. According to CoinLupin, this suggests that Bitcoin’s upward trend remains intact. CoinLupin elaborated on the potential significance of Bitcoin’s MVRV levels, particularly regarding historical cycle peaks. In previous cycles, Bitcoin has typically peaked when the MVRV ratio is between 3 and 3.6. While Bitcoin’s current MVRV of 2 does not yet approach this peak range, the upward trend in the MVRV indicates that the market may still have room for growth if historical patterns hold. Should the Realized Value (RV) remain constant, CoinLupin’s analysis projects that Bitcoin would need a price increase of around 43% to 77% to reach an MVRV level between 3 and 3.6. This translates to a potential price target range of $95,000 to $120,000, provided market conditions support upward momentum. However, the analyst also noted that the Realized Value could increase as new buying interest emerges, potentially pushing peak valuations beyond these estimated levels. Bitcoin Market Performance After several weeks and days of building momentum to surge past the $70,000 resistance, Bitcoin has again fallen below this price mark, indicating that there might not be enough momentum yet to move further to the upside. So far, the asset has declined by nearly 1% in the past week. However, BTC currently trades for $68,306, recording a slight increase in price by 1% as its 24-hour high remains at $69,317. Interestingly, despite the slight dip in price in the past weeks, Bitcoin’s daily trading volume has registered an increase over this period. Related Reading: Tracking Bitcoin’s Profit Cycles: Could A New Market High Be Near? Particularly, data from CoinGecko shows that BTC’s 24-hour trading volume has increased from below $30 billion last Monday to currently above $38 billion as of today. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin price has seen many cycles over the years, marked by distinct growth phases, peaks, and corrections. To better understand these cycles, a CryptoQuant analyst, using the pseudonym ‘datascope,’ has highlighted the relevance of the UTXO Block Profit/Loss (P/L) Count Ratio Model. This tool offers unique insights into the balance of profitability and losses among Bitcoin market participants, serving as a lens to examine potential price reversals. By focusing on various moving averages, this model tracks price fluctuations and shows how profitability shifts within the market over time, offering clues about when new market peaks might form. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin’s Bull Market Just Beginning? Leveraged Bets Suggest Big Moves Are Coming Predicting Market Peaks Through Profit And Loss Ratios Datascope’s analysis highlights the significance of short, medium, and long-term trends captured by 7-day, 30-day, and 365-day moving averages. This multi-perspective approach is valuable for long-term investors and short-term traders, as it distinguishes between shifts impacting immediate market movements and those affecting longer-term cycles. The model demonstrates that changes in the profitability ratio are critical for gauging market sentiment and potential price movements. As Datascope explains, a decrease in overall profitability ratios suggests that short- and medium-term trading strategies may now be more practical, responding to a market less defined by extreme long-term price swings. One of the key findings from the UTXO P/L model is the behavior of the 30-day profit and loss ratio relative to the 365-day moving average. Datascope noted that when the 30-day ratio rises above the 365-day average, it could signal a new price peak. In simple terms, crossing short- and long-term profitability lines indicates that investor sentiment is shifting towards more profitable conditions. Price increases have historically followed this occurrence as optimism fuels further buying pressure. For instance, the analyst pointed out that while economic conditions varied between 2021 and 2022, similar trends were observed in the model during both years, particularly in how the profit and loss ratio used the annual moving average as a resistance line. Datascope suggests that if the profit and loss metrics consistently stay above the annual average, Bitcoin may be on track to establish new highs. Bitcoin Market Performance Meanwhile, Bitcoin is seeing an increase in price following a recent correction that led to the asset’s price falling below $70,000 yesterday. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To New ATH Soon? Analyst Who Called $72,000 Surge Reveals What Needs To Happen Bitcoin currently trades for $70,379, down by 0.9% in the past day. Before this decrease, the asset experienced a surge, recording a 24-hour of $71,500. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
In a recent move to boost the growth of crypto investment products in Japan, a coalition of Japanese companies has recommended that any upcoming exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the region should focus on Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH). This recommendation comes as Japan debates whether to follow the US and other nations that have already […]
As Bitcoin experiences a gradual recovery in its price performance, a new analysis sheds light on the cryptocurrency’s broader market stance. A CryptoQuant analyst known as “Crazzyblockk” recently shared an in-depth study on Bitcoin’s quarterly performance, focusing on key metrics like the asset’s market capitalization and realized capitalization. According to the analyst, examining these metrics every quarter can offer valuable insights into long-term trends and potential future price movements. Related Reading: Bitcoin Signal That Led To At Least 70% Surge Has Formed Again Current Market Signals Resemble 2021 Boom The analysis highlights how fluctuations in Bitcoin’s market cap and realized cap signal bullish and bearish trends over time. Market cap refers to the total value of all BTC in circulation, while realized cap measures the value based on the price at which each Bitcoin last moved. Historically, when the market cap grows faster than the realized cap, it often signals the beginning of selling pressure, leading to bear markets. Conversely, when the market cap declines while the realized cap holds steady or rises, Bitcoin tends to find its price bottom, indicating potential buying opportunities. Crazzyblockk’s analysis parallels Bitcoin’s current market situation and behavior during the 2021 boom. During that period, rapid market cap growth led to significant selling pressure, eventually correcting prices. According to the analyst, Bitcoin is currently in a similar position. While the market cap has seen a notable increase, the realized cap continues to rise, indicating the possibility of another major price correction on the horizon. The analyst’s study also points out that sustained growth in the realized cap, without corresponding support from the market cap, tends to trigger corrections as investors realize their profits. This phenomenon is particularly relevant in the current market environment, where Bitcoin’s price has surged in recent months but faces challenges in maintaining its upward trajectory. Crazzyblockk warns that a correction may be inevitable if Bitcoin’s market cap cannot sustain its current levels. Bitcoin Market Performance Meanwhile, Bitcoin appears to be seeing a cooling-off in the positive price performance seen earlier in recent weeks. So far, the asset has increased by nearly 10% in the past 14 days, reclaiming major highs and even approaching the $70,000 price mark with a high of $69,227 seen yesterday. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retail Activity Soars After 4-Month Slump—Would A 72% Rally Follow? However, the past-day performance of Bitcoin suggests a cool-off of this price increase. Over this period, Bitcoin had fallen below $67,000 with a current trading price of $66,980. Regardless of this price correction, some analysts remain bullish. Particularly, a renowned crypto analyst known as Moustache on X has recently highlighted in a recent post that “Bitcoin has broken out of a falling channel that has been in place for over 7 months.” The analyst added that this price action is “reminiscent” of 2020 before the rally. Commenting on the ongoing decline in BTC, the analyst said: “Are bears celebrating a retest? They will be surprised soon. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Grant Colthu, the former CEO of Australian crypto exchange Mine Digital, appears to be in legal trouble. According to a press release, Colthu is now facing fraud charges for allegedly misappropriating a customer’s $1.47 million (2.2 million AUD). The release revealed that the customer had intended to use the funds to purchase Bitcoin, but the […]
Bitcoin has recently seen an uptick in retail investor activity following months of subdued participation, according to a report by CryptoQuant analyst caueconomy. The analyst highlighted this in a post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, disclosing how this return in retail demand could be one of the signs of a bull market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Watch Out: Miners Showing Unusual Exchange Inflow Activity Bitcoin Retail Activity Returns After 4-Month Decline The CryptoQuant analyst noted that on-chain transaction volumes of up to $10,000—a key indicator of retail investment—have increased by approximately 13% in the past 30 days. This marks a shift after four months, during which smaller investors were largely inactive. caueconomy wrote: Note that in the last 4 months we have seen a decrease in the activity of these small investors, while whales maintained a high amount of transactions and absorption of coins. The analyst further explained that the increase in small investor activity is typically more sensitive to market sentiment and news than fundamental factors. Additionally, it provides an early indicator of capital flows into the Bitcoin network. As mentioned by caueconomy, this rise in retail demand, which hasn’t been observed since March, could signal the beginning of a trend toward “lower risk aversion” among non-institutional market participants. Notably, this increase in small investor activity comes at a time when Bitcoin’s price has seen constant increase in the past week, with the cryptocurrency recently attempting to reclaim the $70,000 mark. An Outlook On BTC’s Price—72% Rally Next? While retail demand appears to be returning, Bitcoin faces a minor retracement after its recent attempt to break the $70,000 price mark earlier today. The crypto asset reached a high of $69,431 earlier today but has since fallen by 2.4% in the past 24 hours, bringing the current price down to $66,951. Despite this slight dip, market sentiment among analysts remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s future potential. One notable analyst, Javon Marks, recently took to X to express his bullish outlook for Bitcoin. Marks highlighted a potential 72% price increase that could push Bitcoin to $116,000 or higher. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales ‘Grew Substantially’ During Last Dip, Data Shows Large-Holder Accumulation According to his analysis, Bitcoin has been working around a key price level of $67,559. Despite the recent pullback, several bullish patterns—such as Hidden Bullish Divergences—suggest that Bitcoin may soon break above this level. If Bitcoin successfully crosses this threshold, it could increase price movement toward $116,652. Back to the basics for #Bitcoin (BTC) again and a >72% move to $116,000+ still looks likely ⚡️! In this setup, we see Bitcoin working on a key level at $67,559, after a monumental, more than 333% climb to reach + break above it before pulling back since March. Now, during this… https://t.co/iocZrLlRGx pic.twitter.com/XCrjd56w3W — JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) October 21, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
The latest weekly digital asset fund flow report from CoinShares has revealed that last week, crypto asset investment products saw roughly $2.2 billion in net inflows globally, marking the largest inflow since July. This rise in inflows comes amid the gradual recovery of top crypto assets last week, with the majority now reclaiming major highs and registering nearly double-digit gains over the past 7 days. Related Reading: Can Bitcoin Price Reach A New All-Time High? This Golden Cross Suggests So Who Led the Charge? Bitcoin-based products were the standout beneficiaries of last week’s inflows. US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) added $2.1 billion, with BlackRock’s IBIT ETF alone generating over $1.1 billion. The cumulative inflows for these Bitcoin ETFs, which began trading in January, now stand at $21 billion. These funds have grown to manage a record $66 billion in assets under management, highlighting their significant role in the market. Notably, the renewed confidence in Bitcoin products mirrors earlier this year’s positive sentiment. Last week’s inflows were the largest since March, when US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $2.6 billion as Bitcoin reached its all-time high above the $73,000 price mark. This strong demand suggests that investors remain bullish on Bitcoin’s long-term prospects, despite recent market fluctuations. While Bitcoin stole the spotlight, other cryptocurrencies also experienced inflows last week although way lesser than that of BTC. Ethereum-based products attracted $58 million in net inflows, while Solana, Litecoin, and XRP-based funds saw smaller inflows of $2.4 million, $1.7 million, and $700,000, respectively. However, multi-asset investment products did not fare well, experiencing net outflows of $5.3 million, ending a 17-week streak of consecutive inflows. What Prompted The Surge In Crypto Inflow? According to CoinShares, this surge in inflows is tied to growing optimism about the upcoming US elections, with a potential Republican victory driving investor sentiment. Many believe that a Republican administration would favor the digital asset market more favorably, leading to an increase in investor confidence and positive price momentum. James Butterfill, Head of Research at CoinShares, particularly noted: We believe this renewed optimism stems from growing expectations of a Republican victory in the upcoming US elections, as they are generally viewed as more supportive of digital assets. Notably, Butterfill, reiterated these views, adding that trading volume for these investment products surged by 30% last week. Total assets under management (AUM) for crypto funds are now nearing the $100 billion mark on a global scale, highlighting the substantial interest in digital assets. Related Reading: HODL Fever: Bitcoin Holders Refuse To Sell As Data Shows Record BTC Stash However, while US-based funds thrived, investment products in other countries such as Canada, Sweden, and Switzerland experienced net outflows, indicating a more polarized global market. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin (BTC) has been on an upward trend in recent weeks, showing positive price movements that appear quite appealing to investors. According to a recent CryptoQuant analysis, a key metric, “active address momentum,” paints a bullish picture for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Bull Rally Hinges On $57K Support Level—Here’s Why It Matters Active Address Momentum Signals Upward Market Structure Active addresses represent the number of unique addresses conducting transactions on the Bitcoin network, providing insights into network activity and investor engagement. By applying a 30-day moving average (30DMA) and a 365-day moving average (365DMA) to this indicator, the CryptoQuant analyst could assess the network’s growing momentum. The analyst emphasized that the 30DMA has sharply risen recently and is closing in on the 365DMA. If a “golden cross” occurs, where the 30DMA surpasses the 365DMA, it could signal a further bullish trend for Bitcoin, dent reveals. The CryptoQuant analyst added that Bitcoin has seen high transaction volumes since the second half of the year, supporting increased network activity. While the current upward momentum is encouraging, the analyst also warned of potential volatility due to a “rising wedge” formation in Bitcoin’s price chart—a pattern that could lead to significant price swings if the wedge continues to tighten. Bitcoin Rally To $90,000 In Sight? Bitcoin’s recent price performance has added to the optimism among investors. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency has surged by over 10%, and it has continued its upward trajectory, rising by an additional 1.98% in the past 24 hours to trade at $68,708 at the time of writing. This upward movement has helped Bitcoin break through a major resistance zone on its daily chart, sparking predictions of even higher prices. One notable prediction came from crypto analyst Javon Marks, who recently shared his outlook on X. Marks highlighted that Bitcoin has broken out of a “descending broadening wedge” pattern. Statistically, this pattern suggests that when the resisting line is broken, the price objective is reached in 81% of cases. Related Reading: Massive Bitcoin Move Imminent: 7 Key Reasons Behind The Bullish Outlook In Bitcoin’s case, Marks believes that this breakout could push the price of Bitcoin to a range between $90,000 and even more than $96,000. #Bitcoin (BTC) is now broken out of the displayed ‘descending broadening wedge’ pattern and statistics from this type of pattern states that in 81% of cases, the pattern’s price objective is reached when the resisting line is broken. Bitcoin’s Price Objective: $90,000-$96,000+ https://t.co/lPZZtJm7pi pic.twitter.com/hudApLSlDj — JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) October 17, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has recently begun to see a major recovery in its price, reclaiming the $66,000 mark earlier today. This sudden positivity in price performance has prompted debates on whether retail investors and newcomers have returned to the market. Although there has so far been speculation about increased retail participation, a detailed analysis reveals a more nuanced picture. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Braces For Volatility Ahead Of Chinese Stimulus Speculations, Options Expiry A Closer Look At Retail Participation According to a CryptoQuant analyst, BinhDang, in a recent post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, the trends among smaller retail groups show growth and stagnation in different areas, reflecting a complicated dynamic in the current market cycle. In the post titled “1 Year Change – From Plankton to Fish Addresses,” BinhDang broke down Bitcoin wallet activity into several categories of retail investors, including plankton (addresses holding more than 0 but less than or equal to 0.1 BTC), shrimp (holding more than 0.1 but less than 1 BTC), and fish (holding between 10 and 100 BTC). These smaller groups were analyzed because they better represent retail investors than larger wallet categories like whales or humpbacks, which tend to be dominated by institutional players or exchanges. One of the key observations made by BinhDang is that the growth in retail addresses is uneven, particularly among the smallest investors. The plankton addresses, representing individuals holding tiny amounts of Bitcoin, have shown almost negligible growth from 2023 to the present day. This starkly contrasts previous cycles, where significant price increases were accompanied by a sharp rise in the number of retail investors holding small amounts of Bitcoin. The analyst explained that this slower growth could reflect broader economic conditions, including the global decline in monetary flows over the past few years, which may have discouraged new entrants from investing in Bitcoin. Potential For Future FOMO In Bitcoin’s Bull Cycle The uneven growth in retail addresses points to a cautious return of retail investors to the Bitcoin market. However, there are still positive signs that the current cycle has room to expand. BinhDang highlighted the trend of retail investors, particularly those in the “fish” category (holding between 10 and 100 BTC), who have continued accumulating Bitcoin, suggesting that while smaller investors may be hesitant, more seasoned participants are preparing for the next phase of the bull cycle. The data indicates that while retail participation is not as strong as in previous cycles, there remains the potential for a final wave of FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) that could drive Bitcoin to new heights. The analyst particularly wrote in the post: So, the data suggests that future FOMO waves are still possible in this cycle. […] Based on these observations, I conclude there is still a basis to look forward to a final wave in this cycle. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
After briefly rising above $63,000 in recent days, renewing investor’s hope on “uptober,” Bitcoin has once again dampened this excitement by decreasing to as low as the $60,000 region today. This unappealing performance has led to a CryptoQuant analyst, Aytekin, raising and sharing insight on an important question: “Is it reasonable to expect a final shakeout before the next big move?” Related Reading: Is The Worst Over For Bitcoin? Analyst Suggests Local Bottom May Be Here Bitcoin Next Move: Major Correction Looming? In a recent post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, the analyst explained that Bitcoin is currently in a high open interest zone, having exceeded the critical $18 billion level. Historically, when open interest levels reached this point, major corrections followed. The analyst mentioned that the current market sentiment appears divided, noting: The market seems indecisive in many aspects, with some believing that the next big upside move is on the horizon, while others think BTC’s downward trend remains strong. A common belief is that BTC may need a final shakeout before surging to a new all-time high (ATH). Aytekin added that funding rates, though slightly above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), suggest that long traders are still dominant. However, significant price corrections in the past often occurred when funding rates turned negative, which hasn’t happened yet. Aytekin concluded that, while a final shakeout might occur, the depth of the correction may not be as severe given the relatively moderate funding rates. BTC Price Outlook As Bitcoin has struggled to break through key resistance levels, its recent price action reflects ongoing market indecision. Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin maintained stability above the $60,000 mark, but failed to make a major move to reclaim $70,000. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has slipped by 2.9%, currently trading at $60,485. This decline follows the asset’s brief surge to $63,774 earlier in the week, which sparked optimism for a possible move toward the $65,000 and then $70,000 mark. Prominent crypto analyst Ali recently commented on Bitcoin’s price action, noting that Bitcoin is still trading within a “descending parallel channel.” According to Ali, the asset was rejected at the upper boundary of this channel, signalling the potential for further downside. “We might see a drop to the middle boundary at $58,000 or even the lower boundary at $52,000,” Ali noted in a post on X. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Path To $80,000 “Melt-Up” In Q4 2024 – Details Inside He emphasized that a bullish breakout is unlikely unless Bitcoin clears the $66,000 level, a price point that has acted as a significant resistance point in recent weeks. #Bitcoin remains stuck in a descending parallel channel. After the recent rejection at the upper boundary, we might see a drop to the middle boundary at $58,000 or even the lower boundary at $52,000. A bullish breakout won’t happen until $BTC clears $66,000! pic.twitter.com/yFvS6jxmKB — Ali (@ali_charts) October 9, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has recently seen quite an interesting trend in its key metrics suggesting a significant movement ahead, according to a post by CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha. The post, shared on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, highlights notable changes in both long-term and short-term holder behaviour of Bitcoin, as well as in realized profit and loss figures. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Non-Realized Profits Hit Negative Levels—What Does This Mean for Investors? Key Bitcoin Metrics Suggesting Market Shifts Taha begins by explaining the fundamental difference between short-term and long-term Bitcoin holders. Short-term holders (STH) are traders who engage in brief buying and selling activities, often employing strategies like day trading or swing trading to capitalize on Bitcoin’s price fluctuations. On the other hand, long-term holders (LTH) adopt a buy-and-hold strategy, aiming for long-term gains by holding onto their Bitcoin for extended periods. This distinction sets the stage for understanding the recent changes in market activity. In his analysis, Taha noted a sharp decline in the realized capitalization for long-term holders, which dropped from $19 billion to -$5 billion. This indicates that long-term holders have been taking profits or closing their positions, potentially signalling reduced confidence in further price gains. On the flip side, short-term holders have increased their buying activity, with their realized capitalization rising from -$17 billion to $11 billion. This suggests that short-term traders either take on more risk or bet on potential price increases, creating a more volatile market environment. Additionally, Taha touched on the Korea Premium Index, often called the “Kimchi Premium.” This index tracks the price difference between Bitcoin traded on South Korean and global exchanges. Currently, the index is near zero or negative, meaning Bitcoin is trading at a lower price in South Korea than the rest of the world. This implies reduced buying pressure from Korean traders, who have historically played a large role in increasing cryptocurrency prices due to the local trading culture. A negative premium suggests low demand from South Korean investors, potentially adding to the market’s uncertainty. Net Realized Profit And Loss Trends Another key metric Taha focused on is Bitcoin’s net realized profit and loss (NRPL), which tracks market participants’ total net profit or loss. Positive NRPL values indicate that more investors are taking profits, while negative values suggest more losses are being realized. Currently, the NRPL is approaching a critical $4 billion mark. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forecast: This Week’s Trends And Historical Patterns For Q4 Taha highlighted that crossing the $4 billion threshold in past market cycles has often coincided with significant market peaks or troughs. The red line marking the $4 billion level across the chart (above) represents a key point of market activity. According to the analyst, when NRPL crosses this line, it can indicate a surge in trading activity as more investors either lock in their profits or cut their losses. Taha further pointed out that these points have historically been pivotal moments in Bitcoin’s price action, and the current proximity to this level suggests that another significant market movement could be on the horizon. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
A group of more than two dozen residents from Granbury, Texas, has filed a lawsuit against Marathon Digital Holdings, a major crypto miner firm, citing the excessive noise and vibrations from its local Bitcoin mining facility. According to the residents, the crypto mining site, located near their homes, has caused significant disruptions to their daily […]
As Bitcoin is currently still struggling to reclaim major highs, a recent analysis of its fundamentals has highlighted a possible buying opportunity for Bitcoin based on insights from the Non-Realized Profit metric. A CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost highlighted this metric’s importance in a recent post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, mentioning what its trend means for investors. According to the analyst, the Non-Realized Profit metric offers a window into the unrealized gains or losses held by Bitcoin investors, which can influence future market movements. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Not Sold On Uptober As Sentiment Remains Neutral Understanding The Current Zone In Non-Realized Profits The Non-Realized Profit metric is often used to calculate the difference between the current price of Bitcoin and the price at which each coin was last moved, without accounting for coins that have been sold. High values in this metric suggest that investors hold significant unrealized profits, which could lead to increased selling pressure as they may choose to realize these gains. Conversely, negative values indicate that many investors hold positions at a loss, potentially signaling a market bottom and a favourable entry point for new investors. According to the CryptoQuant analyst, the Non-Realized Profit metric is mostly in the negative zone. This situation implies that many Bitcoin holders are either at break-even points or experiencing unrealized losses. Historically, such conditions have been associated with market bottoms, where the asset is considered undervalued. This scenario could present a strategic “opportunity” for investors looking to enter the market or increase their holdings. According to Darkfost, what sets the current market apart is that the unrealized profits have reached unprecedented highs compared to previous cycles, even while in the negative zone. This anomaly suggests that the ongoing market cycle may differ from past Bitcoin patterns. The analyst cautions that while this could lead to unique investment opportunities, it also introduces potential risks due to the deviation from established trends. Bitcoin Continuous Struggle Below $70,000 After briefly touching the $64,000 price level yesterday, Bitcoin has faced correction once again, falling back below this price mark—currently, the asset trades for $62,340, down by 1.8% in the past 24 hours. This decline in performance from Bitcoin appears to have also dragged the global crypto market cap along with it, with the overall market cap valuation of crypto currently down by 3.3% in the past day to $2.26 trillion. The plunge has had a severe impact on traders, most especially the ones on long positions. According to data from Coinglass, in the past 24 hours, 59,005 traders were liquidated, with the total liquidations sitting at $176.57 million. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forecast: This Week’s Trends And Historical Patterns For Q4 Out of the total liquidations, long positions account for $130 million, while short positions account for only $45.91 million. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
A CryptoQuant analyst known as “caueconomy” recently published a post indicating that Bitcoin (BTC) may have reached a local bottom. The analyst points to a significant liquidation event as a key sign that a short-term recovery could be on the horizon. Although caueconomy acknowledged that Bitcoin has been going through a period marked by bearish price sentiment and technical indicators suggesting potential further decline, the analyst also highlighted that emerging signs may indicate a stabilization in the asset’s price. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Selloff Is Calming Down: Green Sign For Rally To Continue? How Is BTC Long Liquidations Suggesting Local Bottom? The post by caueconomy on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform titled “Liquidation of long positions may have established a local bottom” sheds light on how long-position liquidations in the futures market could influence Bitcoin’s price. Caueconomy elaborates that in the face of notable price declines, long contracts bought on future exchanges tend to experience sharp reductions due to mass liquidations. This process, in turn, diminishes the selling pressure that often exacerbates price drops, potentially setting the stage for a recovery in the asset’s price in the short term. On October 1st, over 4,000 BTC long positions were liquidated, marking the second-largest liquidation event of 2024 based on data compiled by CryptoQuant. The analyst mentioned that such significant liquidation events often indicate potential market reversals or local bottoms, as the selling pressure from these positions is removed from the market. However, caueconomy points out that it is crucial to keep a close eye on the buying strength to gauge whether it can offset the decline and facilitate recovery. The analyst advises that although the current range may be sustained in the short term, the potential for upward movement is contingent on renewed buying interest and market activity. The analyst concluded in the post: At this point, the price is likely to sustain the current range in the short term, but it will be necessary to watch the buying strength to be able to recover the decline. Is there Any Sign Of Buying Interest In Bitcoin Currently? So far, Bitcoin appears to be seeing a gradual rebound in price registering a 3.5% increase in the past day to reclaim the $62,000 mark. At the time of writing, the asset currently trades for $62,238. This increase in BTC has been reflected in the overall crypto market, with the global crypto market cap now up by 2% in the past day to a current valuation of 2.26 trillion. Meanwhile, a renowned crypto analyst known as Ali on X recently reported a form of Bitcoin buying interest ongoing on an exchange. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin On The Brink Of A Reversal? Here’s What This Key Indicator Suggests In a post uploaded earlier today on X, Ali pointed out that there has been a surge in the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on OKX, the fourth-largest cryptocurrency exchange by 24-hour trading volume. There was a spike in the #Bitcoin Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on @okx! This indicates a surge in aggressive buying — a sign of upward momentum ahead! pic.twitter.com/QgZ9qkhSls — Ali (@ali_charts) October 4, 2024 This spike in the ratio indicates an increase in aggressive buying activity within the market, a potential sign of renewed upward momentum. Such behavior often reflects increased confidence from buyers, hinting at the possibility of a price recovery or a new upward trend. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView