Bitcoin has experienced notable price volatility since the start of the year, with its performance showing mixed signals. Institutional investors, however, appear to have maintained their confidence in the asset despite recent market corrections. According to a recent analysis shared by CryptoQuant contributor caueconomy on the QuickTake platform, institutional players have been strategically accumulating Bitcoin, suggesting long-term confidence in the asset’s value trajectory. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Forming A Symmetrical Triangle – Breakout Or Breakdown? Bitcoin Institutional Accumulation Signals Market Confidence caueconomy revealed that on December 21, investors sold approximately 79,000 BTC within a week, triggering a significant market correction of around 15%. This sell-off marked a local top and was followed by a phase of price consolidation. However, instead of exiting the market, large investors utilized the price dip to open Time-Weighted Average Price (TWAP) positions, gradually accumulating Bitcoin just below the $95,000 mark. Over the past 30 days, institutional players have added more than 34,000 BTC to their portfolios, creating a layer of buying pressure that supports Bitcoin’s current recovery phase. Interestingly, the analyst pointed out that this trend has been consistent since June 2023, even during periods of rebalancing in institutional portfolios. While retail investor demand has hit a five-year low, institutional interest remains notably strong, indicating a divergence in market behavior between retail and institutional participants. This sustained accumulation suggests that large investors anticipate long-term value Increased Selling Pressure On Binance Sparks Market Concern While institutional accumulation has provided some support for Bitcoin’s price, another CryptoQuant contributor, Darkfost, highlighted growing selling pressure on Binance, one of the world’s largest cryptocurrency exchanges. In a separate analysis, Darkfost noted a sharp increase in hourly Net Taker Volume, which turned significantly negative, peaking at -$325 million — the highest figure recorded in 2025. This surge in selling pressure coincided with the release of unfavorable economic data from the ISM PMI and JOLTs Job Openings reports, which affected broader market sentiment across risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. Related Reading: Bitcoin Signal That Took Price From $69,000 To $108,000 Appears Again The data triggered a wave of sell orders, causing Bitcoin’s price to face additional downward pressure. Darksfost suggested, noting: Monitoring this indicator, along with others, will be essential to determine whether fear is starting to dominate the markets over the long term or if it is merely temporary. Despite this intensified selling activity, Bitcoin has managed to maintain support above the $95,000 level. At the time of writing, the cryptocurrency is trading at $95,586, reflecting a 5.2% decline over the past 24 hours. The price remains significantly below Bitcoin’s all-time high of $108,000, recorded last month, marking an 11.8% drop from its peak. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
The rapid advancements in quantum computing which sparked growing concerns within the cryptocurrency sector late last year, particularly regarding Bitcoin’s long-term resilience seem to have once again resurfaced. CryptoQuant, an on-chain data analytics platform, recently highlighted these risks in a series of posts on X titled “Quantum Computing is a Growing Risk for Bitcoin”. The discussion […]
Bitcoin (BTC) has seen bullish but unsteady price action in early 2025, with recent data highlighting shifting sentiment among US investors. After briefly crossing the $102,000 mark yesterday, the asset has struggled to maintain upward momentum, shedding most of its recent gains as it stands at just below $100,000. These developments coincide with critical insights from key on-chain metrics that offer a clearer view of Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory. Related Reading: Bitcoin Forms First Daily Death Cross On Dominance Chart In 4 Years, What To Expect Next Bitcoin’s Price Struggles Despite Positive Coinbase Premium Index Signal A CryptoQuant analyst known as Burak Kesmeci recently shared insights on the Coinbase Premium Index (CPI), which turned positive for the first time in 2025. The CPI measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other global exchanges, serving as a crucial indicator of US investor sentiment. 3 days ago, Coinbase Premium Index crossed SMA14 for the 1st time in 26 days—Bitcoin is now up 4% to $102K. In Nov 2024, a similar move saw Bitcoin rally from $69K to $108K. U.S. buyers could be back in action. pic.twitter.com/XtAlHUzzvv — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 6, 2025 Alongside this positive shift, a notable 4,012 BTC outflow from Coinbase was recorded, signaling renewed buying interest among US-based investors. Historically, such patterns have been associated with a rise in buying pressure, often laying the groundwork for potential price surges. Despite these positive signals, Bitcoin’s price performance remains restrained. After briefly surpassing $102,000 on December 6, Bitcoin retreated and now trades below $100,000, reflecting a modest 3.3% decrease over the past 24 hours. This price mark from the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization puts it at approximately 8.9% below its all-time high of $108,135, achieved in December 2024. Bitcoin Faces Key Resistance Levels Notably, the current price action from BTC suggests that while buying pressure exists, it may not yet be sufficient to trigger another strong rally. According to cryptocurrency analyst Ali, Bitcoin maintains a critical support zone between $95,400 and $98,400, where over 1.77 million addresses collectively hold 1.53 million BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Miner Sentiment Signals: Are We Nearing a Market Rebound? This support zone remains essential for stabilizing Bitcoin’s price amid market uncertainty. Conversely, resistance appears limited, with only 107,000 BTC supply positioned between $104,700 and $105,770. This relatively thin resistance could pave the way for upward movement if buying pressure intensifies. #Bitcoin sits well above an important support zone between $95,400 and $98,400, where 1.77 million addresses bought over 1.53 million $BTC. However, there isn’t significant resistance ahead, only a minimal supply wall of 107,000 #BTC between $104,700 and $105,770. pic.twitter.com/MEATFegTV2 — Ali (@ali_charts) January 7, 2025 Meanwhile, zooming out, analysts remain bullish overall on Bitcoin. Captain Faibik for instance has recently shared his outlook on BTC suggesting that the asset is still poised for a rally to $112,000. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
The cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin, has often followed a pattern of alternating growth and decline cycles, reflecting investor sentiment and market fundamentals. Since the beginning of the current bull cycle in January 2023, Bitcoin has demonstrated substantial gains in both price and market duration. Increased capital inflows from new investors have supported this growth and existing participants are reinvesting their profits. However, recent indicators suggest that the market may now be entering the latter stages of this cycle, raising questions about what lies ahead for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. Related Reading: MARA CEO Advocates “Invest And Forget” Approach To Bitcoin, Citing Strong Historical Performance Key Indicators Point to Cautious Optimism A significant metric supporting this observation is the percentage of Bitcoin traded within the past month based on realized market cap – UTXO, which currently sits at 36%, according to a recent analysis shared by a CryptoQuant analyst known as Crypto Dan. In the analysis, Dan reveals that while this figure remains lower than peak levels observed in previous bull cycles, its downward trajectory suggests that the market is “progressing toward its cycle peak.” Dan anticipates that this peak could occur sometime between Q1 and Q2 of 2025. However, rather than a single explosive surge, historical trends indicate that the ratio could experience sharp increases two to four more times before the cycle concludes. This pattern typically signals market overheating, followed by a subsequent correction or bear cycle. Dan further highlighted that while the market still holds potential for gains, a conservative approach to risk management is advisable. Historically, late-stage bull cycles have been marked by increased volatility, as profit-taking begins to influence market behavior. Dan wrote: Nevertheless, from a conservative standpoint and with risk management in mind, caution is advised. For this reason, I am planning to gradually sell my holdings. Another critical observation from on-chain data is the relationship between short-term traders and long-term holders. Historically, a sharp increase in short-term trading activity often precedes a market correction. Traders who entered the market during recent price rallies may begin to sell off their holdings, leading to temporary downward pressure on prices. Conversely, long-term holders often remain resilient during these periods, providing a stabilizing force in the market. Bitcoin Sees Recovery As The New Year Begins After weeks of struggling and remaining below $100,000 in the last month of 2024, Bitcoin appears to have now resumed its bullish momentum as the first month of 2025 commences. Although, BTC entered the new year with a price below $95,000. However, a few days later, the asset continued its upward momentum, reclaiming the $100,000 price mark to currently trade at a price of $101,624. At the time of writing, BTC recorded a 3.9% increase in the past day bringing its price closer to its recently established all-time high above $108,000 last month. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
The Bitcoin market continues to draw attention as key on-chain indicators reveal insights into miner sentiment and Bitcoin’s quarterly performance trends. A recent analysis by CryptoQuant analysts highlights how shifts in miner sentiment correlate with Bitcoin price movements, while year-end data paints a picture of Bitcoin’s overall market behavior in 2024. These insights are critical for investors looking to navigate Bitcoin’s market dynamics and anticipate potential trends in 2025. Related Reading: Can Bitcoin Price Reach A New All-Time High? This Golden Cross Suggests So The Role of Miner Sentiment In Market Dynamics Miner sentiment is often viewed as a crucial metric in predicting Bitcoin price movements. Historically, negative miner sentiment—typically observed through indicators like hashrate, difficulty, block count, and block rewards—has often signaled market bottoms or the early stages of recovery trends. Additionally, the relationship between miner sentiment and Bitcoin price movements has remained consistent across various market cycles. A CryptoQuant analyst known as datascope pointed out that periods of sharply negative miner sentiment, highlighted by significant drops in hashrate and increased block production difficulty, often precede substantial price recoveries. This phenomenon was evident during Bitcoin’s market cycles in 2017, 2018, and 2020, where negative miner sentiment coincided with market bottoms and subsequent rallies. In the context of the current market phase, the analyst observed heightened miner sentiment volatility, suggesting increased uncertainty and potential market corrections. However, the data also indicates that significant declines in miner sentiment often create strategic buying opportunities. Furthermore, with Bitcoin mining profitability becoming more challenging due to increasing difficulty levels, miner behavior is expected to play an even more prominent role in determining market sentiment in the coming months Bitcoin Year-End Performance Overview In addition to miner sentiment, Bitcoin’s overall market performance in the final quarter of 2024 offers important insights. According to another CryptoQuant analyst known as Crazzyblockk, Bitcoin’s market capitalization increased by 55%, while its realized capitalization rose by 28.9% during Q4 of 2024. Although these figures represent substantial growth, they fall slightly below the 58% market cap growth seen in Q1 2024. However, the realized cap growth in Q4 outpaced that of Q1, indicating stronger capital inflows into Bitcoin during the final months of the year. When compared to previous Bitcoin cycles, the gains in Q4 2024 were more measured than the sharp increases seen during earlier bull runs. Historically, during peak bullish phases, Bitcoin often recorded market cap growth nearing 100% and realized cap gains of 50-70%. Related Reading: $33.14 Billion At Risk If The Bitcoin Price Hits $72,462, Here’s Why Regardless the analyst mentioned that Q4 2024 can be considered to be “Bitcoin’s best quarter of the year.” Looking ahead to 2025, Crazzyblockk appears to remain cautiously optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term growth potential. The analyst noted: While history does not always repeat itself, we can cautiously speculate that the bullish sentiment among Bitcoin holders leaves room for long-term growth in 2025. However, this does not rule out the possibility of short-term corrections along the way Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
The Bitcoin (BTC) market is currently experiencing significant shifts in supply dynamics, with notable activity between long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs). According to the latest analysis from CryptoQuant, historically, such transitions have often indicated local market tops or even cycle peaks, depending on the overall market environment and broader economic conditions. Presently, demand from short-term holders continues to play a critical role in supporting Bitcoin’s price stability amid ongoing market volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin Remains Below $100,000: Is the Bull Market Over or Just Taking a Breather? Long-Term Holders Vs. Short-Term Buyers The analysis made by the CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost revealed that the short-term holders, particularly those who acquired Bitcoin in recent months, are actively influencing market sentiment. By analyzing the realized price data of various short-term acquisition periods, distinct support and resistance levels become apparent. These realized price levels include $41,000 for the general average realized price, $85,000 for short-term holders overall, $99,000 for holders within one week to one month, $81,000 for one to three months, and $60,000 for three to six months. These figures reflect key psychological and technical price points where market participants may make significant buy or sell decisions, according to Darkfost. The analyst revealed that the Short-Term Holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (STH SOPR) currently remains neutral at 1 after declining from Bitcoin’s last rally, which pushed its price to an all-time high of $108,000. The STH SOPR serves as a key metric to evaluate short-term holders’ profit-taking behavior. A neutral SOPR indicates that recent selling activity from short-term holders has not been significantly profitable, reducing the incentive for widespread sell-offs at current price levels. However, this neutral stance suggests potential headwinds for an immediate bullish recovery. The decline in STH SOPR points to diminishing realized profits, which could slow down upward momentum in the short term. Despite these challenges, short-term holders’ demand has managed to absorb much of the selling pressure from long-term holders, preventing sharp price declines. Darkfost wrote: In conclusion, the selling pressure from LTHs has so far been fairly well absorbed by the buying pressure from STHs. However, we note that the STH SOPR is declining, which could hinder an immediate bullish recovery. In the short term, a period of consolidation or even a deeper correction might occur. Bitcoin Market Performance And Outlook Meanwhile, Bitcoin is currently trading at a price of $97,357 after recording a slight increase of 1.1% in the past day. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Moves From 56 To 60-Day Cycle After Crash Below $100,000, What To Expect Next While this uptick has helped BTC regain positive momentum in recent weeks, it remains insufficient to propel the cryptocurrency back to the six-digit price mark or its all-time high above $108,000. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
The Bitcoin market has been experiencing a phase of correction in recent weeks following its recent surge beyond $108,000. This decline has led to growing concerns among investors about whether the market is entering a prolonged cooling-off period or if this correction signifies the end of the bull cycle. However, historically, such phases have been common in Bitcoin’s market cycles, often followed by periods of renewed upward momentum. Analysts are now turning to key on-chain metrics to provide insights into the current phase and its implications for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. Related Reading: Market Alert: Bitcoin’s $81K Support Zone Could Decide Its Next Big Move Key On-Chain Indicators Reflect Market Sentiment A CryptoQuant analyst known as Avocado Onchain recently shared an analysis suggesting that the market remains within a broader bull cycle. Using on-chain indicators such as the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), Miner Position Index (MPI), and funding rates, the analyst outlined the current state of Bitcoin. According to the report, the SOPR (7-day Simple Moving Average) remains above 1 but is trending downward, indicating reduced profit margins for sellers. This metric often acts as an early signal of market sentiment shifts, with drops below 1 historically triggering rebounds as selling pressure subsides. The report further analyzed Bitcoin’s Miner Position Index (MPI). This index measures miner behavior, particularly their tendency to sell Bitcoin in anticipation of significant market events, such as halving cycles or peak price levels. The current trend in MPI shows no significant outflows from miners to exchanges, suggesting that large mining operations are holding their Bitcoin reserves. Avocado added that this indicates confidence in the long-term value of Bitcoin, even as short-term volatility persists. However, periodic sell-offs to cover operational costs are still expected. Another important indicator highlighted by the CryptoQuant analyst is total network fees, measured using a 7-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). This metric reflects transaction activity and overall on-chain engagement. Avocado disclosed that the recent decline in network fees suggests reduced trading activity and a temporary cooling-off phase in market participation. Historically, such periods of lower transaction activity have preceded periods of renewed bullish momentum, especially when other indicators align with this trend. Bitcoin Funding Rates And Investor Sentiment Funding rates, another significant indicator in the analysis, have shown a downward trend. Funding rates represent the cost of holding long or short positions in Bitcoin futures contracts and are often used to gauge market sentiment. During bull cycles, sharp drops in funding rates have often been followed by rebounds, as bearish sentiment reaches an extreme point and buyers return to the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Eyes Fresh Gains: Can Bulls Break Through? The analyst emphasized that while current on-chain data suggests a cooling-off phase rather than the end of the bull cycle, short-term price movements remain uncertain. Historically, funding rate drops have served as buying opportunities for long-term investors, particularly during periods of heightened market pessimism. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
As Bitcoin continues to slowly decline in price, the asset appears to be moving closer to a key psychological level. With uncertainty surrounding the continuation of Bitcoin’s current trend, speculation remains divided on whether the crypto asset is preparing for another upward breakout or entering a phase of correction. Recent on-chain data suggests that specific metrics, such as the realized price for short-term holders, are providing essential insights into the market’s behavior and potential future direction. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Key SOPR Metric Holds Steady: Are Long-Term Holders Eyeing Higher Prices? Key Support Level Identified at $81,000 In an analysis recently uploaded on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, an analyst known as Shayan BTC revealed that the realized price metric, particularly for the 1-3 month UTXO (Unspent Transaction Output) age band, serves as a critical indicator for assessing investor sentiment among newer market participants. This metric represents the average purchase price of Bitcoin for those who acquired the asset within the last one to three months. A sustained price above this level typically signals bullish momentum, suggesting that recent buyers are confident in holding their positions despite prevailing market volatility. Conversely, if Bitcoin’s price drops below this level, it may indicate potential selling pressure as these short-term holders attempt to limit their losses. According to Shayan, the realized price for Bitcoin’s 1-3 month holder cohort currently stands at $81,000. This level is seen as a vital support zone, acting as a “psychological and technical defense” line for both short-term and long-term investors. Historically, when Bitcoin’s price remains above this threshold, it indicates a resilient market sentiment where recent buyers demonstrate confidence in the asset’s future price potential. On the flip side, a price drop below the $81,000 mark could lead to increased selling activity, primarily driven by short-term holders looking to exit their positions to minimize potential losses. Such a scenario would likely add downward pressure to the market, potentially triggering broader sell-offs. Bitcoin Market Performance Bitcoin has so far given investors a boring holiday season with its lackluster performance. Particularly ever since the past weeks towards the middle of December, Bitcoin has fallen below the $100,000 price mark and has remained below it with little to no upward movement. Over the past two weeks, Bitcoin has now dropped by 10.9%.2% as it remains below the $100,000 price mark. However, its past day performance has been quite interesting. Over this period, BTC has seen a sudden increase of 4% to a current trading price of $95,519, at the time of writing. Interestingly, despite this sudden surge, this price mark puts Bitcoin at a roughly 11.9% decrease away from its all-time high of $108,135 registered in the middle of December. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Market analysts, including Arthur Hayes, have warned of deep short-term price corrections before Bitcoin establishes a new all-time high.
Bitcoin ongoing price movement has sparked intense analysis as it continues to hover below the $100,000 mark. Despite reaching an all-time high above $108,000 last week, the cryptocurrency has struggled to maintain upward momentum ever since. With this performance, BTC’s on-chain data has been brought to the spotlight to uncover the factors driving recent selling pressures and investor behavior. One key focus has been the Spent Output Age Bands (SOAB) indicator, which provides valuable insights into Bitcoin holders’ activity based on their holding periods. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is Forming A Symmetrical Triangle – Can BTC Reclaim $100K? Who Cashed Out Their Bitcoin Gains? According to a CryptoQuant analyst known as Yonsei Dent, data reveals that Bitcoin investors who bought their holdings between six to twelve months ago were the most active sellers during the recent price surge. This group largely entered the market during the initial excitement surrounding the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) earlier in the year. While this selling activity exerted downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price, the asset has managed to stabilize within the $90,000–$100,000 range. Interestingly, long-term holders, defined as those holding Bitcoin for over a year, have shown minimal selling activity. Historical trends suggest that these seasoned investors are likely anticipating elevated price levels before considering substantial profit-taking. Meanwhile, Dent pointed to the Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric showing a noticeable decline in older Bitcoin being moved in December compared to November. Historically, reduced activity from long-term holders during price corrections often signals market resilience and potential for future upward momentum. The analyst wrote: The ‘Binary CDD’ indicator at the bottom of the chart shows a decline in the selling of older Bitcoin in December compared to November. This suggests that many long-term holders may anticipate even higher prices before selling. Binance Reserves Signal Market Confidence Speaking of higher prices, another crucial metric suggesting a significant move brewing for Bitcoin comes from Binance’s Bitcoin reserves, which have been steadily declining since August. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost highlighted that Binance’s reserves recently hit their lowest level since January. This trend is significant because a similar decline earlier in the year preceded a 90% surge in Bitcoin’s price. The reduction in exchange reserves typically indicates that investors are moving their Bitcoin holdings away from centralized exchanges and into private wallets. Such behavior suggests reduced selling pressure and a preference for long-term holding strategies. Historically, declining reserves on exchanges have often aligned with periods of strong market optimism and price rallies. Notably, as BTC currently still trades at a price of $95,567 down by 2.7% in the past day, the confluence of these factors—long-term holder confidence, reduced activity from older wallets, and declining exchange reserves—presents a cautiously optimistic picture for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Still Close To Extreme Greed: More Cooldown Needed For Bottom? However, it is cautioned that sustained buying activity will be required to break through psychological resistance levels and maintain upward momentum. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has continued to see declining performance in recent days with on-chain metrics offering valuable insights into market behavior. Among these metrics, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for long-term holders has particularly emerged as a critical tool for assessing investor sentiment and market resilience. Long-term holders, defined as investors holding Bitcoin for over 155 days, are often viewed as a stabilizing force in the market. Their selling patterns can significantly influence price trends, making SOPR an indicator worth watching. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Leverage and Coinbase Premium: What Recent Data Reveals Long-Term Holder Trends And Market Sentiment Recent analysis from a CryptoQuant analyst known as Cryptoavails highlights that Bitcoin’s long-term holder SOPR metric continues to exhibit notable patterns as Bitcoin’s price trends upward. Historically, SOPR values above 1 indicate that long-term holders are selling at a profit, while values below 1 suggest they are offloading their holdings at a loss. This behavior reflects broader market confidence or capitulation during periods of price decline. Currently, the SOPR metric remains consistently above 1, signaling that long-term holders are selling profitably without adding significant downward pressure on Bitcoin’s price. The analysis from Cryptoavails tracks key phases in the Bitcoin market over the past two years, highlighting significant shifts in SOPR values. For instance, in early 2022, the SOPR metric showed high volatility with frequent spikes, suggesting intense profit-taking activity by long-term holders. Amid these sales, Bitcoin’s price experienced a downward trend, reflecting persistent selling pressure during that period. This trend gradually shifted in late 2022 and early 2023 when the SOPR metric mostly remained below 1, indicating that long-term holders were selling at a loss as the market sought to find stability. By mid-2023, the SOPR began trending upwards, signaling renewed confidence among long-term investors. The metric consistently moved closer to or above the critical level of 1, suggesting that long-term holders were once again selling at a profit while market confidence began to recover. This upward trend has remained intact into 2024, supported by Bitcoin’s rising price levels. Importantly, there have been no significant sell-offs by long-term holders, reinforcing the broader market’s stability, according to the crypto analyst. SOPR As A Forward Indicator For Market Growth Overall, Cryptoavails mentioned that the current state of Bitcoin’s SOPR suggests a healthy market dynamic, with long-term holders contributing to a stable price structure. Despite periodic corrections, the sustained presence of SOPR above 1 indicates that selling pressure remains controlled. Related Reading: What’s The Worst Case Scenario For Bitcoin Right Now? Analyst Explains The analyst also pointed out that this behavior reflects market maturity, where long-term investors are not rushing to offload their holdings despite Bitcoin’s price appreciation. Regardless, Bitcoin has continued to consistently decrease in price since its sharp drop below $100,000 last week. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at a price of $93,991 down by 1.6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
As Bitcoin currently faces a downturn and now seeing a recovery suggesting a preparation for its next bull run, market participants appears to be analyzing trends in exchange leverage and liquidity. Particularly, CryptoQuant has pointed out that leverage ratios on centralized exchanges have become a focal point, offering insights into the potential risks and opportunities shaping the crypto market. The platform’s recent data highlights the importance of assessing these ratios to gauge the financial stability of exchanges and the impact on trading dynamics. Related Reading: As Bitcoin Reclaims $100,000, Warning Signs Emerge from Long-Term Investors Leverage Trends And Exchange Stability A detailed analysis revealed that Binance maintains strong reserves relative to its open interest, signaling a strong ability to manage market volatility. In contrast, smaller exchanges like Gate.io and Bybit exhibit higher leverage ratios, raising questions about their capacity to withstand liquidity crunches. According to CryptoQuant, monitoring these metrics has become even more “critical” in light of past events, such as the collapse of FTX in November 2024, which was triggered by insufficient reserves against high open interest. CryptoQuant’s latest findings further highlight the varying leverage strategies employed by major cryptocurrency exchanges. Binance emerged as a leader in maintaining a stable leverage ratio while expanding its Bitcoin open interest from $4.45 billion in December 2023 to $11.64 billion in December 2024. Despite this growth, Binance’s Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USDT reserves have consistently exceeded its open interest, ensuring liquidity and stability even during volatile market conditions. The exchange’s leverage ratio, which rose modestly from 12.8 to 13.5 over the past year, remains the lowest among its peers. Conversely, exchanges like Gate.io, Bybit, and Deribit exhibit significantly higher leverage ratios of 106, 86, and 32, respectively. CryptoQuant wrote: These figures show their Bitcoin open interest exceeds or approaches their reserves, with similar patterns observed for Ethereum. Coinbase Premium: A Key Indicator For Bitcoin Traders Beyond leverage ratios, another crucial metric shaping Bitcoin market sentiment is the Coinbase Premium. This indicator, which tracks the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase and other exchanges, is a barometer for institutional demand and market trends. A CryptoQuant analyst named BQYoutube suggested that traders adopt a cautious approach based on Coinbase Premium signals: When the premium is negative, it may be wise to stay on the sidelines. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Loses Momentum: Could A Drop To $75,000 Signal The Final Correction? However, a positive premium often signals the return of strong demand, offering a strategic entry point for traders looking to ride major market trends. According to the latest data, this metric currently sits on the negative side, suggesting to stay on the sidelines. BQYoutube added: You might miss few small trends with this approach but at least you can ride all the big trends and avoid losses in dips or downtrends. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingVie
Bitcoin, the leading cryptocurrency by market capitalization, has recently experienced a significant and sudden price correction, sparking debate among investors. Concerns have surfaced about whether this downturn signals the conclusion of the current bull cycle or merely represents a temporary setback. While short-term holders face losses, long-term metrics provide a broader perspective on Bitcoin’s trajectory, as analyzed by CryptoQuant’s Avocado Onchain in a recent report. Related Reading: As Bitcoin Reclaims $100,000, Warning Signs Emerge from Long-Term Investors Opportunity Or End of The Bull Cycle? According to Avocado Onchain, the realized price for investors who entered the market during Bitcoin’s recent peak at $98,000 places them in a loss-making position. However, for those who invested between one to three months ago, the realized price is significantly lower at $71,000, offering a cushion against the current correction. Avocado pointed out that historical patterns from Bitcoin’s 2021 bull cycle reveal similar alternations between record highs and sharp corrections, suggesting that these dips may not necessarily indicate the end of the cycle. Instead, they have historically been “opportunities” for market rebalancing and subsequent growth. A key indicator analyzed is the 30-day moving average of the short-term SOPR (Spent Output Profit Ratio). This metric tracks whether recent market participants are selling at a profit or a loss. The current SOPR data reveals that recent short-term inflows into Bitcoin have yet to result in substantial profit-taking. Unlike previous cycle peaks characterized by aggressive selling, the ongoing correction appears subdued, indicating that the market may still have room for upward movement. Bitcoin Short-Term Dips vs. Long-Term Trends Additionally, Avocado Onchain highlights the importance of distinguishing between short-term corrections and broader cycle trends. Bitcoin’s tendency to rebound after corrections in past bull cycles reinforces the notion that the current downturn might not mark the cycle’s end. These insights align with the behaviour of long-term holders, who often use corrections to consolidate their positions, strengthening market resilience. Related Reading: Is The Bitcoin Top In For This Cycle? On-Chain Signals You Need To Know Avocado concluded the analysis, noting: For investors who have yet to enter the market, this may be an excellent opportunity to buy Bitcoin at a discount. Instead of succumbing to panic selling during short-term downturns, adopting a long-term perspective and a dollar-cost averaging (DCA) strategy could be a more effective approach. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is seeing a gradual rebound in its price surging by 1.3% in the past 1 hour. Regardless, the asset still appears to be overshadowed by the bears as BTC remains down by 3.5% in the past day and 10.5% from its peak of $108,135 recorded last week. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Before yesterday’s plunge, Bitcoin recent rally was able to propel the asset to a new all-time high of $108,000, marking another significant milestone in its upward trajectory. However, according to latest analysis, this notable price surge is accompanied by signs of potential market volatility, as long-term holders begin to exhibit selling activity. Attention has been turned to the Binary Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, a critical tool for assessing the behavior of long-term Bitcoin holders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks ATH Pushing Back Into Price Discovery – BTC To $130K? What Do Long-Term Holders Currently Signal? The Binary CDD metric tracks the activity of long-term holders by measuring the number of “coin days” destroyed relative to the total supply. When this metric spikes, it often indicates increased selling pressure from long-term investors. According to a CryptoQuant analyst, ShayanBTC, the Binary CDD metric has recently recorded a sharp increase, coinciding with Bitcoin’s new price high. Historically, such spikes in this metric have been precursors to market corrections, suggesting that these holders are taking advantage of current price levels to reduce their exposure. Shayan added that the long-term holders actions often serve as a barometer for broader market sentiment. The recent surge in the Binary CDD metric suggests that these holders might view the peak above $108,000 as a strategic exit point. If this selling pressure intensifies, it could lead to heightened market volatility and potentially trigger a price correction. Bitcoin Market Outlook Bitcoin has recorded a rollercoaster move in the past day. Particularly, following the FOMC news outcome yesterday along with the speech from Jerome Powell, Chair of the Federal Reserve of the United States, Bitcoin saw a significant plunge in its price dropping to as low as the $98,000 level. However, the latest price action has been quite interesting as BTC is showing a rebound. In the early hours of Thursday, Bitcoin saw a recovery in price after reclaiming the $100,000 to trade as high as above $105,000. Currently, Bitcoin has seen a retrace back to a price of $100,718, at the time of writing, marking a 3.5% decrease in the past day and roughly 6.6% reduction away from its all-time high (ATH). Meanwhile, adding to Shayan’s narrative, another CryptoQuant analyst, Onatt, highlighted additional market indicators that hint at potential turbulence. The Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between Coinbase and other exchanges, is currently in negative territory, indicating increased selling pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Still Mirroring Bullish Move From 2023, What To Expect After Hitting $108,000 ATH Furthermore, the adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR), a metric used to gauge profit-taking behavior, has shown sudden spikes. According to Onatt, these signals collectively highlights the need for sustained institutional demand, particularly through Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), to stabilize market conditions. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has seen continuous bullish momentum in recent weeks resulting in the asset’s consistent new highs. According to recent analysis, this momentum appears to not just be random as it comes amid major moves behind the scenes. Particularly, recent data indicates that Bitcoin reserves have dropped to a historic low of 2.4 million, signaling a “supply shock” that has coincided with a surge in Bitcoin’s price. This reduction in exchange reserves, coupled with strong demand, has created a bullish environment that could set the stage for further price increases. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Price Momentum Shifts As Spot Market Outpaces Futures – Here’s What It Means A Supply Shock In The Making A CryptoQuant analyst known as Kripto Baykus shared the outlook on Bitcoin’s exchange reserve hitting historic low in a post on the QuickTake platform. In the post, Baykus highlighted that the year began with Bitcoin reserves at approximately 3 million on exchanges. However, a steady decline throughout 2024 has led to the current levels, reflecting a clear shift in investor behaviour. Institutional investors, in particular, have embraced long-term holding strategies, pulling their assets off exchanges, Baykus noted. The analyst added: This shift is particularly evident among institutional investors, who have increasingly embraced the “hodl” approach, demonstrating strong confidence in Bitcoin’s future potential. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s price has mirrored this movement, starting the year at around $40,000 and accelerating in November to surpass $100,000, eventually reaching a new peak above $104,000. Baykus wrote: The limited supply of Bitcoin, combined with shrinking reserves, is seen as a strong bullish signal for the market. Investors are pricing in the effects of the supply shock, and if the trend persists, Bitcoin is likely to break further records in late 2024 and into 2025. Bitcoin Current Demand Stance In addition to supply-related trends, another CryptoQuant analyst known as Yonsei Dent has recently turned to the Coinbase Premium Index to offer insights into Bitcoin’s demand in North America. This metric tracks activity on Coinbase, one of the largest exchanges in the region, and has traditionally been used to predict short-term price movements. However, over the past two weeks, a divergence between the Coinbase Premium Index and Bitcoin’s price has raised concerns. Dent pointed out that despite Bitcoin’s price rising from $94,000 to $106,000 during this period, the Coinbase Premium has declined. This suggests that the recent price surge may not have been driven by US.-based demand, raising questions about the medium-term momentum of Bitcoin’s rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Big Move? Key Metric Reveals When to Cash In Profits Dent noted: If this price surge has not been supported by U.S.-based demand, it could indicate underlying weakness in medium-term upward momentum. Investors should remain cautious and monitor this development closely. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has continued its upward trajectory as recent market trends highlight a shift in investor behaviour. According to data shared by CryptoQuant analyst Avocado Onchain, spot market demand has emerged as a significant driving force behind Bitcoin’s ongoing price increases. This trend indicates growing buying pressure from long-term investors, as speculative activity in the futures market appears to be cooling. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Big Move? Key Metric Reveals When to Cash In Profits Bitcoin Spot Market Demand Gains Strength The analyst’s observations provide insights into Bitcoin’s ongoing bull cycle, which began in the first half of 2023. According to Avocado, initially, the futures market led the charge in pushing Bitcoin’s price upward, signalling a speculative phase fuelled by short-term traders. However, this momentum was interrupted earlier this year when both the futures and spot markets experienced reduced trading activity starting in March. Since October, market activity has returned, with trading volumes rising across both futures and spot markets, providing fresh support for Bitcoin’s rally. In his analysis, Avocado Onchain noted a key trend: while futures market activity has recently declined, demand in the spot market has been steadily increasing. Spot market activity refers to the actual purchase of Bitcoin on exchanges for immediate delivery, typically driven by investors with a long-term perspective. This stands in contrast to futures markets, where traders speculate on price movements using contracts that do not require immediate ownership of the asset. Spot Market Demand Takes the Lead as Bitcoin Continues Its Upward Momentum “While futures market activity has declined, spot market demand continues to increase. This suggests that speculative excess in the futures market is cooling, while buying pressure in the spot market is… pic.twitter.com/M4o4TsG02V — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 17, 2024 What This Means For BTC The analyst suggests that this shift indicates speculative excess in the futures market may be stabilizing. Historically, overheated futures markets have led to volatility, often triggering liquidations. However, the cooling of futures market activity, coupled with rising spot market demand, reflects a more sustainable form of buying pressure that can underpin Bitcoin’s long-term growth. The CryptoQuant analyst noted: Looking ahead, the futures market is likely to undergo cycles of overheating and liquidations, which will contribute to Bitcoin’s price growth. This price movement will, in turn, encourage further capital inflows into the spot market. Additionally, Avocado Onchain pointed to the 30-day exponential moving average (EMA) of Bitcoin’s funding rate, which shows “no signs of late-cycle overheating.” Related Reading: Bitcoin To Hit $180,000 If These Cycle Top Indicators Are Absent, Says VanEck’s Sigel The funding rate measures the cost of holding futures contracts and is often used as an indicator of market sentiment. Avocado mentioned that as BTC funding rate remains balanced, it suggests that BTC’s price movements are not being driven solely by leveraged positions, reducing the risk of sudden price reversals. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin recent price momentum which led to a renewal of its all-time high (ATH) appears to have reignited interest in key metrics used to time market entries and exits. Among these, the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) reversion metric has been highlighted by a CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost, who shared insights on its current implications for Bitcoin investors. The metric, a measure of Bitcoin’s price deviations from its expected value based on the S2F model, has become an important tool for many traders assessing market sentiment and identifying potential profit-taking windows. Related Reading: Bitcoin Confidence Grows As Binance Data Highlights Surprising Market Trends When Should Cash In Your Bitcoin Profits? Darkfost’s analysis points to September 11 as a significant date, when the S2F reversion metric dropped below 1, signaling a potential buy opportunity as Bitcoin traded at $57,000. Now, the analyst emphasizes a different critical threshold—a value above 2.5—historically indicating a favorable time to secure moderate profits. Should the metric reach a value above 3, it often signals market overheating, marking an opportune moment for larger profit-taking strategies. The S2F reversion metric offers a structured approach to assessing Bitcoin’s price cycles. Darkfost suggests a two-step profit strategy: investors should consider securing smaller gains when the metric hits 2.5 and proceed to larger profit-taking if it surpasses 3. Darfost particularly wrote: A prudent strategy when using this indicator is to take moderate profits once the S2F reversion ratio hits 2.5 and to secure larger profits when the ratio exceeds 3, thereby balancing risk and reward effectively. BTC Market Performance Regardless of the suggested indicator by Darkfost on when to take profit, Bitcoin appears not to be slowing down in its upward momentum. So far, BTC has created a new ATH after trading as high as $106,352 in the early hours of Monday. Although at the time of writing, the asset has seen a slight rebound currently trading at a a price of $105,942, however, BTC is still up by over 3% in the past day more than 10% in the past two weeks. Unsurprisingly, along with the rising price, BTC’s market capitalization has also seen a significant surge in its valuation now sitting at roughly over $2 trillion as of today. Meanwhile, despite this positive momentum, BTC’s daily trading volume has seen quite an opposite trend. Related Reading: National Bitcoin Reserve Initiative: MP Satoshi Hamada Urges Japan To Take Action Particularly, this metric instead of seeing a rise amid the new ATH of BTC, has remain stable and lower than last week’s daily trading volume. At the time of writing, BTC’s trading volume sits at $97.4 billion, a significant decline from the over $140 billion volume valuation seen last week on December 10. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has shown a significant recovery, reclaiming the $100,000 milestone yesterday. It trades at $101,805, marking a 1.4% increase over the past 24 hours. Amid this price performance, analysts have closely examined various metrics to gauge potential market movements, including identifying optimal cash-out moments. Meanwhile, recent data reveals intriguing patterns that could guide investor strategies. When Should You Cash Out Your Bitcoin? One key insight shared by a CryptoQuant analyst, Onchain Edge, highlights a critical signal for when investors should consider reducing their Bitcoin holdings. Other metrics suggest a resurgence in buyer activity, reinforcing optimism in Bitcoin’s ongoing rally. Onchain Edge emphasizes the importance of the BTC supply loss percentage as a marker for peak market phases. He notes that when this metric drops below 4%, it could signify the culmination of a bull market and the beginning of an overheated market phase. Currently, the current supply loss percentage stands at 8.14%, providing room for further price growth before a potential peak. The analyst warns, however, that failing to act at the right time during such peak phases could lead to substantial losses in a subsequent bear market. Elaborating on his analysis, Onchain Edge encourages investors to consider dollar-cost averaging (DCA) out of their positions once the supply loss percentage breaches the 4% threshold. It is worth noting that this strategy by Edge could help mitigate the risk of holding through the transition into a bear market. Historically, peak bull run phases are characterized by significant profits among market participants, often followed by sharp corrections. Investors can protect their gains by exiting strategically while preparing for lower entry points during future market downturns. BTC Buyer Activity Resurges Meanwhile, in a separate analysis, another CryptoQuant analyst known as Crazzyblockk sheds light on the behavior of takers on Binance, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges. Data from the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio shows a shift toward aggressive buying activity. This metric, which compares the volume of buy orders filled by takers to sell orders, had experienced a period of negative monthly values, indicating a preference for selling among market participants. However, the ratio has recently turned positive, signifying renewed interest from buyers. This trend suggests reduced selling pressure and growing optimism among traders about Bitcoin’s potential price increase. According to Crazzyblockk, sustaining this momentum is critical for maintaining the bullish trajectory, particularly as Bitcoin consolidates around the psychologically significant $100,000 level. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
So far, the Bitcoin market continues to demonstrate resilience as it maintains its price above the $90,000 price market despite various factors influencing its price movements. Amid this, a CryptoQuant analyst, aytekin466, recently shared insights into whether the cryptocurrency could face another significant price correction. Related Reading: Bitcoin Is ‘Highly Likely’ In A Supercycle: Expert Explains Why Are Major Corrections a Thing of the Past? aytekin disclosed that with Bitcoin experiencing a maximum decline of 30% in its current cycle — notably during the “carry trade shock” in August — this marks a milder drawdown than previous cycles. According to the analyst, the increasing presence of ETFs has contributed to stabilizing the market by mitigating drastic shakeouts. However, the dynamics surrounding BTC investment remain a careful balancing act. The analyst noted: Waiting for the next big correction to enter the market or add fresh capital might result in being late to the rally. On the other hand, being overly aggressive while the market is surging could be risky. Mentioning that it is better to understand where the market stance is as of now, aytekin highlighted that current metrics, such as a positive Coinbase premium and the cooling off of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), suggest a “healthy consolidation phase.” Moreover, funding rates have eased following recent price fluctuations, while miners show no urgency to liquidate their holdings. Stablecoin flows to spot exchanges are also at their highest levels this year, signaling active market participation. aytekin wrote: In conclusion, a correction could happen at any time without a specific reason, but the current situation doesn’t indicate a shift in momentum. Further Growth In Bitcoin Price Expected? Another CryptoQuant analyst, Darkfost, highlighted positive market signals from stablecoin activity and BTC netflows. The Exchange Stablecoin Ratio — comparing Bitcoin reserves on exchanges to stablecoin reserves — is in decline. This trend indicates strong buying pressure as stablecoins for Bitcoin purchases increase while Bitcoin exchange reserves dwindle. In parallel, weekly Bitcoin netflows reveal consistent withdrawals from exchanges, suggesting a sentiment shift toward mid- to long-term holding among investors. These metrics indicate a favorable market environment with strong demand and investor confidence. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Market at a Crossroads: Are Long-Term Holders Signalling a Correction or a Rally? Notably, the declining exchange stablecoin ratio aligns with a reduction in immediate selling pressure. At the same time, the accumulation of Bitcoin signals that market participants view the current environment as conducive to long-term growth. Darkfost wrote: These combined metrics, lower exchange stablecoin ratios and decreasing Bitcoin reserves, indicate a positive market environment. They highlight that demand remains strong and that investors are demonstrating confidence in Bitcoin’s potential Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
According to the latest report by CoinShares, crypto asset investment products have achieved a historic milestone, with weekly inflows totaling $3.85 billion, surpassing previous records set earlier this year. CoinShares highlighted a surge in investor interest, propelling total year-to-date (YTD) inflows to $41 billion and assets under management (AuM) to $165 billion—a contrast to prior […]
The role of Bitcoin long-term holders (LTHs) has again come under the microscope of analysts as the asset currently faces a 4.5% correction from its all-time high (ATH) above $100,000 created on Thursday. These holders, defined as those who retain their Bitcoin for over 155 days, are known to influence market movements through their accumulation and distribution behaviors significantly. A recent analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Datascope has highlighted key trends in LTH activity that could signal the next phase for Bitcoin. Related Reading: Hut 8 Unveils $750 Million Initiative To Establish Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Key Trends And Historical Context Datascope’s insights highlight the importance of the LTH accumulation/distribution ratio as an on-chain metric. This ratio reflects whether LTHs are amassing Bitcoin, indicative of market bottoms, or liquidating holdings during price peaks, often signaling corrections. Historical patterns from 2013 and 2017 saw LTHs engaging in substantial selling at market highs, while periods like 2019 and 2020 were marked by intense accumulation, paving the way for bull markets. According to datascope’s analysis, the peaks of 2013 and 2017, which were characterized by heightened selling activity from LTHs, correlated with significant price corrections. These corrections, fueled by profit-taking, marked the culmination of bullish cycles. Conversely, during the lows of 2019 and 2020, LTHs exhibited strong accumulation tendencies, which signalled confidence in Bitcoin’s long-term potential and laying the groundwork for subsequent price surges. Now in 2024, datascope pointed out that the LTH metric is once again providing critical insights into market conditions. Recent data reveals increased selling activity among LTHs, a behaviour observed during periods of market overheating or resistance at current price levels. While this trend could hint at an impending correction, it also raises the possibility of the market transitioning into a new accumulation phase. Echoing this, a recent report from CryptoQuant reveals there has been sustained buying pressure from US investors. Bitcoin passes $100k as institutional demand drives the market. The Coinbase Premium Index highlights sustained buying pressure from U.S. investors. pic.twitter.com/eZvKFCmVxs — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 5, 2024 Current Outlook On Bitcoin Bitcoin has continued to see decline in its price following the $103,679 ATH recorded yesterday. At the time of writing, BTC has dropped 2.2% in the past 24 hours with a current trading price of $99,208. Regardless of this, the asset appears to still be in an uptrend. over the past month, Bitcoin is still up by roughly 33.6% with a current market capitalisation of $1.965 trillion. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin’s $100K Just the Beginning? Key Insights from Supply Distribution Data datascope commenting on Bitcoin’s current market outlook wrote: The market is at a crossroads, potentially entering a new upward cycle or consolidating before a deeper correction. With Bitcoin in an “overheated” zone, investors should exercise caution and evaluate profit-taking opportunities. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has achieved a major milestone, trading at six-figure levels for the first time since its inception. On Thursday, the cryptocurrency reached a new all-time high of $103,679, marking a year-to-date surge of over 140% and pushing its market capitalization above $2 trillion. This achievement has reignited enthusiasm within the investor community, solidifying Bitcoin’s position as a key player in the global financial market. Despite this impressive feat, Bitcoin has experienced a slight retracement. At the time of writing, it trades at $101,573, still up by 6% in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: Retail Demand Surges for Bitcoin: The Journey Towards $100K and Beyond Begins? What Comes Next? Market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock weighed in on this development, offering insights into Bitcoin’s potential trajectory. The platform’s analysts highlighted that Bitcoin’s capped supply and growing interest from institutional investors and even countries create significant upward potential. Bitcoin breaks $100.000! A major milestone, but what’s next? With a limited supply and substantial interest from large investors (and even countries), the potential seems limitless. However, we recommend taking a look at prior cycles to evaluate potential. This chart shows… pic.twitter.com/5b60oTRJy3 — IntoTheBlock (@intotheblock) December 5, 2024 However, past cycles suggest diminishing returns, with historical post-halving cycles showing returns of 7,900% in 2013, 2,560% in 2017, and 594% in 2021. Based on these trends, IntoTheBlock expect a more conservative growth range of 100%-200% from the halving price, suggesting a peak between $130,000 and $190,000. IntoTheBlock analysts particularly wrote: So while some are calling for a million dollars per Bitcoin, a more reasonable expectation would be a 100%-200% return from the halving price, placing the top between 130k and 190k. However the analysts also pointed out: “That is, unless Bitcoin becomes a global reserve asset of course.” Analyzing Market Trends and Investor Behaviour Meanwhile, a CryptoQuant analyst has provided additional insights into Bitcoin’s recent performance and market behaviour. According to the analyst, Bitcoin purchases continue to rise, with the Coinbase Premium Index reflecting strong buying activity in the United States. The index, which tracks the difference in price between Coinbase Pro and Binance, shows sustained positive data, indicating active participation by US investors. The analyst emphasized the importance of monitoring this index alongside broader trend analysis. For example, during periods classified as “fear phases,” where buyers retreat and bearish momentum fails to materialize, the market often creates opportunities for strategic entry points. Related Reading: $1.87B Bitcoin Withdrawals From Coinbase In 24H – What This Means To Price If the index remains in the positive zone, it signals a continuation of the uptrend, making pullbacks an optimal time for positioning. Until Bitcoin reaches what the analyst describes as the “excess phase,” buying positions should be held, while profitable positions should be secured to mitigate risk. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has reached a landmark moment in its history earlier today, crossing the $100,000 price mark for the first time and cementing its position once again as the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. As it stands, BTC all-time high is at roughly $103,679. This significant achievement has prompted a detailed analysis of its supply distribution, offering valuable insights into the behavior of long-term and short-term holders and the broader implications for the Bitcoin market. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Silent Whales: Rising Exchange Inflows Hint at Market’s Next Big Move Supply Distribution and Market Behaviour Amid the excitement of Bitcoin’s new all-time high, an analysis from CryptoQuant’s analyst, Crazzyblockk, sheds light on how this milestone impacts the cryptocurrency’s realized cap and the broader market structure. While the milestone reflects growing global adoption and investment confidence, it also raises questions about the potential trajectory of the market. According to the analysis, Bitcoin’s supply is currently divided between two key groups of holders: long-term holders (LTHs) and short-term holders (STHs). CryptoQuant data reveals that out of Bitcoin’s total supply, over 14.5 million BTC are held by LTHs, while nearly 5 million BTC are in the hands of STHs. Despite the price surge, only 52% of Bitcoin’s realized cap is attributed to STHs, a stark contrast to previous market peaks where this figure typically exceeded 80%. Historically, Bitcoin’s realized cap trends reveal distinct behaviors during market cycles. During bear market phases, most realized cap shifts towards LTHs as accumulation intensifies, signaling the end of the bearish trend. Conversely, during bull market peaks, the realized cap tends to be dominated by STHs, driven by speculative trading and short-term profits. However, the current distribution shows a higher concentration among LTHs, indicating a deviation from traditional market patterns. Implications for Bitcoin’s Market Momentum According to the CryptoQuant analyst, the relatively low realized cap held by STHs in the current market cycle suggests reduced selling pressure, which may support sustained price growth. The analyst revealed that with a significant proportion of Bitcoin held by LTHs, market confidence appears strong, potentially providing a buffer against abrupt price corrections. This stability is crucial as it reflects long-term investor trust and reduces the likelihood of speculative volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Next Move? Coinbase Premium Suggests a Short-Term Rally May Be Brewing In addition, the analysis also highlights that this supply distribution aligns with a long-term bullish outlook for Bitcoin. The reduced participation of STHs in the realized cap indicates room for further upward movement as more capital may enter the market without triggering a significant sell-off. The analyst wrote: In conclusion, Bitcoin reaching $100,000 is a historic achievement, but the current supply dynamics suggest the potential for further upward movement, given the stability provided by LTHs and the relatively low participation of STHs in the realized cap. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has experienced notable whale activity since the conclusion of the US election on November 5, with an increase in the volume of Bitcoin transferred to exchanges by active whale addresses. However, contrary to what one might expect, there hasn’t been a significant surge in profit-taking activity among these large holders, a CryptoQuant analyst named onatt revealed in a recent post on the QuickTake platform. Related Reading: Bitcoin to Enter Final Bull Phase? Key Indicator Hints at Major Price Movement Whale Activity Suggests Market Stability but Signals Potential Risks The report by CryptoQuant analyst Onatt sheds light on this whale activity, emphasizing the lack of immediate selling pressure despite the increase in Bitcoin inflows to exchanges. Instead of liquidating their holdings, whales appear to be employing a “wait-and-see strategy,” the analyst wrote. They seem to utilize their Bitcoin for purposes like hedging, over-the-counter (OTC) transactions, or collateral. Although this approach points to market stability, onatt advised that “these movements should be closely monitored to anticipate any possible market impact.” Providing more details of this development, Onatt’s analysis reveals that the Adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) metric, which tracks profit-taking activities, does not yet signal significant movements. Historically, large inflows of Bitcoin into exchanges have often been associated with increased selling pressure, but the current scenario deviates from this trend. Instead, these movements may reflect strategic maneuvers by whales as they prepare for potential market shifts. Onatt also noted that while the immediate risk of sell-offs appears low, the ongoing rise in Bitcoin exchange inflows could foreshadow future volatility. Bitcoin Market Performance Bitcoin so far appears to have hit a wall ever since it traded above $95,000. Over the past weeks, Bitcoin has been unable to move further from this price level but has managed to maintain it despite the bears attempts to push it below $95,000. Over the past week, BTC hasn’t moved much and only registers 2.5% increase and in the past 24 hours, the asset has seen just a slight decrease by 1.2% to trade for $95,837 at the time of writing currently. As for Bitcoin’s daily trading volume, interestingly, there has been an opposite trend. Despite Bitcoin’s small price movement into decline, BTC daily trading volume has notably increased from below $60 billion on November 29 to now at $94.5 billion. Related Reading: MicroStrategy Continues Bitcoin Buying Streak: 15,400 BTC Added This Monday Given Bitcoin’s current price trajectory, it is worth noting that this increase in BTC’s trading volume over the past few days might be from sell-offs. According to a renowned analyst known as Ali on X, Bitcoin has formed a head and shoulder pattern on its 1-Hour chart which now signals a correction to $90,000 levels. #Bitcoin $BTC could be forming a head-and-shoulders pattern, which could trigger a price correction to $90,000! pic.twitter.com/mWLDabsYRV — Ali (@ali_charts) December 3, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin, the world’s leading cryptocurrency, appears to be on the brink of a potential sharp rise. According to a CryptoQuant analyst, Crypto Dan, the market could experience a significant upward trend within the next two months. This insight, shared on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, is based on a critical market indicator that has historically signaled major price rallies. Related Reading: Data Shows Selling Pressure Mounts On Bitcoin: Is The Bull Run at Risk? Bitcoin Market Outlook: Sharp Rise Incoming In the post titled “Strong Rise in Bitcoin is Expected Within 1-2 Months”, Crypto Dan highlights the emergence of a “golden cross” in the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) indicator. This occurrence, he notes, is a rare event that typically happens only once or twice during an entire bull market cycle. As part of the current bullish cycle that began in January 2023, its reappearance is being seen as a strong precursor to a substantial market move. For further context, the SOPR Ratio indicator measures realized profits and losses in the Bitcoin market, offering insight into investor sentiment. The “golden cross” identified by Crypto Dan signifies a pivotal moment in the bull cycle. Historically, this signal has been followed by strong price increases within two months of its appearance. Crypto Dan explained that the market is likely entering the final phase of the current upward cycle, a stage characterized by steeper price gains and shorter periods of consolidation. This means that while Bitcoin’s ascent might accelerate, the opportunities for investors to accumulate at lower prices could diminish rapidly. Furthermore, he projected that if the anticipated rise materializes by the end of 2024 or the first quarter of 2025, it could draw significant new capital into the market. The inflow of additional funds is expected to fuel Bitcoin’s momentum, potentially driving the market to its peak during this cycle. Dan wrote: As the market moves towards the later stages of the cycle, the magnitude of the rise tends to be larger, and the periods of decline/adjustment are shorter. If a steep rise occurs as implied by this indicator within the end of 2024 to the first quarter of 2025, it can be expected that new inflows and additional funds will enter the market, bringing it to its peak. BTC Market Performance Meanwhile, Bitcoin continues to maintain stability above the $95,000 price mark. At the time of writing, the asset currently trades for $96,296, down by 1% in the past day but still up by nearly 40% in the past month. According to a renowned crypto analyst known as Ali on X, while some in the community expect a major retracement in Bitcoin’s price, BTC could do the opposite. The analyst projected BTC could surge to as high as $120,000-$150,000 before the first 30% price correction. Given the fact that #Bitcoin tends to do the opposite of what the crowd believes, there is potential for $BTC to go higher. If the current cycle behaves like the last two, #BTC could go to $120,000-$150,000 before the first 30% price correction. https://t.co/xTHJMITqJa — Ali (@ali_charts) December 2, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
The latest insight from experts has revealed that Bitcoin is poised to benefit from a massive liquidity injection projected for 2025, potentially drawing $2 trillion in new investments into BTC. This prediction stems from expectations that the US Federal Reserve will significantly increase the global money supply, which could boost BTC’s market cap and price […]
After briefly retreating to $90,000 earlier in the week, Bitcoin has rebounded strongly, climbing above the $95,000 price. Currently trading at $95,224, Bitcoin has recorded a 7% gain over the past two weeks, signaling renewed bullish momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Price Dip Triggers Alert On NVT Golden Cross—Here’s What To Watch For Key Indicators Highlight Best Buying Opportunities As Bitcoin continues its rally, CryptoQuant, a prominent on-chain analytics platform, has shared insights into key metrics that could help potential investors determine optimal entry points. Drawing on historical data and market behaviour, CryptoQuant highlights the patterns of price corrections, short-term holder strategies, speculative bets, and trading volume indicators to guide investors in navigating Bitcoin’s ongoing bull run. According to CryptoQuant, historical bull markets have shown that price drawdowns are inevitable, even during periods of sustained growth. For instance, the 2017 bull market experienced corrections of up to 22%, while the 2021 rally saw 10% and 30% declines. The 2024 bull run has already seen 15% and 20% price pullbacks, suggesting that periodic corrections may offer strategic buying opportunities. The platform also emphasizes the significance of the Short-Term Holder Realized Price metric, which reflects the average cost basis of recent investors. This metric often serves as a critical support level during bull markets, as short-term holders are more likely to buy at their break-even price, reinforcing price stability. Buy at the Average Cost Basis of Short-Term Holders The Short-Term Holder Realized Price can be seen as the buy-the-dip level during bull markets. Investors tend to buy at their break-even price, making this indicator a visualization of price support. pic.twitter.com/mTDpuhaK8Y — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) November 27, 2024 Additionally, CryptoQuant points to the “Flush of Open Interest,” a phenomenon where speculative positions are cleared out during periods of heightened price action. This process can create favorable entry points for investors looking to capitalize on temporary market resets. Lastly, the Net Taker Volume indicator, which measures the balance between buying and selling pressure, suggests that peak selling activity can signal opportunities for future price growth. A reading below -$30,000,000 according to CryptoQuant, as seen recently, may indicate that sellers are nearing exhaustion, paving the way for potential upside. Key Support Levels For Bitcoin While Bitcoin’s current momentum hints at another potential rally, analysts caution the importance of maintaining critical support levels. Crypto analyst Ali recently identified the $93,580 price zone as a key demand level, where approximately 667,000 addresses collectively acquired nearly 504,000 BTC. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sell-Side Pressure Dominated By New Holders, Research Shows According to the analyst, remaining above this level is crucial to avoid a potential sell-off from holders at this price point. One key demand zone for #Bitcoin to watch is $93,580, where 667,000 addresses bought nearly 504,000 $BTC. Staying above this support level is a must to prevent these holders from selling! pic.twitter.com/UdXTZOYzGH — Ali (@ali_charts) November 28, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin price correction from its recent all-time high has sparked speculation within the crypto community, with many questioning if the bull run remains intact and what the next price move might be. Currently, BTC trades at a price below the $95,000 mark, down by nearly 7% from its all-time high above $99,000 recorded on November 22. Related Reading: Bitcoin Leverage Remains High – Data Reveals Selling Pressure Above $93K BTC NVT Golden Cross Outlook Amid the ongoing pullback in its price, a CryptoQuant analyst known as Darkfost shared insights on the market’s current state, focusing on a key on-chain metric: the NVT Golden Cross. This metric, which evaluates the relationship between market capitalization and transaction volume, recently turned positive. However, Darkfost cautioned against interpreting this shift as inherently bullish. He noted that while the current NVT Golden Cross value is low and doesn’t pose significant risks, traders should keep an eye on it to avoid potential market pitfalls. Notably, the NVT Golden Cross, quantifying whether Bitcoin’s market cap is outpacing its transaction volume, could be a leading indicator for market trends. According to Darkfost, if the metric climbs to 2.2, it could suggest that Bitcoin’s valuation exceeds its transactional utility. In such cases, Darkfost noted that the market might witness a “reversion to the mean,” signalling potential opportunities for short positions. The CryptoQuant analyst added: This scenario could lead to the beginning of a ranging pattern, which might create a favorable environment for altcoins to perform. Bitcoin Performance Outlook As Bitcoin trades at $93,196 at the time of writing, down by 3.3% in the past day, analysts have turned to their respective sources to assess what is happening with Bitcoin. The crypto market has experienced significant volatility, with roughly 191,493 traders liquidated in the past 24 hours, accounting for $571.80 million in total liquidations, according to CoinGlass data. IntoTheBlock, a renowned market intelligence platform, has recently suggested a major fundamental reason Bitcoin is facing a correction. In a post uploaded on X earlier today, the platform reveals that “elevated funding rates” which signal “excessively leveraged positions” contribute to the ongoing decline in BTC’s price. IntoTheBlock pointed out that the good news is that “funding rates have largely normalized,” indicating that the “leverage flush may have run its course.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Profit Hits ATH At $443 Million – Local Top Or Continuation? Meanwhile, from a technical perspective, Bitcoin might be gearing up for a reversal. Renowned crypto analyst Ali recently took to his X account to reveal that the TD Sequential for BTC is now presenting a “buy signal.” The TD Sequential presents a buy signal on the #Bitcoin $BTC hourly chart, while a bullish divergence forms against the RSI, which could help #BTC rebound to $95,000 – $96,000! Join me in this trade by signing up to @coinexcom using my referral link https://t.co/73n8mW9Y5p. pic.twitter.com/lKozxI8JVP — Ali (@ali_charts) November 26, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin price momentum has grabbed significant attention as it gradually sheds some of its gains acquired in the past weeks. So far, Bitcoin has plunged 7.6% from its all-time high (ATH) of $99,645 seen last week. Particularly, at the time of writing, the asset trades for $92,476. Marking roughly 4.6% drop in the past day alone. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Pauses Before $100K—Here’s What Could Happen Next What To Expect From This Current Bitcoin Decline Amid the ongoing correction in Bitcoin’s price, a recent analysis from CryptoQuant’s BaroVirtual has highlighted the steady decline in Bitcoin reserves across major crypto exchanges. According to the analyst, this pattern indicates a market amid a “bull run.” The analyst drew parallels with the March to November 2020 period, noting that exchange reserves saw a similar decline back then, followed by substantial inflows in December 2020 that fuelled upward buying pressure. The conclusion? The current dip in exchange reserves suggests that participants who missed earlier accumulation opportunities may now be entering the market before the next price surge. BaroVirtual noted: Some market participants who have not properly accumulated Bitcoin earlier are likely doing so now, realizing that this is likely the last downward correction before another upward price surge. Retail Traders Yet to Join The Market Meanwhile, although institutional investors and high-net-worth individuals seem to dominate the current market, retail traders appear to be lagging. Another CryptoQuant analyst known as Woominkyu has shed light on this trend, noting that the Korea Premium Index—a key metric for retail involvement—remains below -0.5. This figure highlights limited activity from retail participants in the ongoing rally. According to Woominkyu, the Korea Premium Index has historically shown spikes to extreme levels preceding Bitcoin’s price peaks. He emphasized that monitoring this index could provide vital insights into identifying potential market tops. It is worth noting that the absence of retail traders in the recent crypto rally is quite noteworthy, as their eventual participation could lead to heightened buying pressure and potentially drive Bitcoin’s price higher. At the time of writing, the crypto market is facing a bloodbath, with the global crypto market cap valuation sipping by nearly 6% in the past day to a current valuation of $3.34 trillion. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Crash Not Over? Why A Decline To $89,000 Is Possible According to data from CoinGlass, in the past 24 hours, 206,491 traders have been liquidated, with the total liquidation of the crypto market is roughly $624.99 million. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin recently came close to breaking the $100,000 price mark last week, reaching a high of $99,645 before encountering resistance. According to CryptoQuant analyst Percival, the psychological barrier of round numbers like $100,000 often serves as a point where traders exit positions for “relative safety.” Since climbing from $73,000 to $99,800, Percival highlighted that Bitcoin has recorded a roughly 57% gain, ranking it among the ‘top six exit rallies from consolidation zones.’ Despite this, the CryptoQuant analyst suggests that Bitcoin may enter a consolidation phase. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Profit Hits ATH At $443 Million – Local Top Or Continuation? BTC Faces Resistance Below $100K: What Lies Ahead? Percival emphasized the significance of the Choppiness Index, a metric that gauges market momentum. According to him, the index indicates that Bitcoin’s rally is losing strength weekly. This suggests the cryptocurrency could consolidate for several weeks before another rally begins. Analyzing previous market cycles, particularly in 2020, Percival noted that Bitcoin’s first post-consolidation correction lasted approximately three weeks, with an 18% price drop. If history repeats, the next rally may occur in the latter half of December. The analyst also pointed to Long-Term Holder (LTH) behavior as a critical factor in understanding Bitcoin’s current market dynamics. LTHs are currently seeing 350% in profit and are in a supply distribution phase, with approximately 575,000 Bitcoins (worth around $58 billion) re-entering the market. Despite this, demand has remained strong, driven by inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and purchases from institutional players like MicroStrategy. Using the STH Realized Profit and Loss metric, Percival further explored Short-Term Holder (STH) activity. He noted that short-term holders account for 30.2% of the profits recorded during this phase. Additionally, Bitcoin’s Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio has exceeded 1.33σ, signaling that the average token is approaching the 1.4σ zone, corresponding to 40% unrealized profits. Historically, this zone aligns with the first correction following a significant rally, as observed in late 2020. What to Expect Next for Bitcoin Looking ahead, Bitcoin’s trajectory may depend on several factors, including the pace of its consolidation phase and the behavior of institutional and retail investors. If the current consolidation period mirrors the patterns of previous cycles, Bitcoin could stabilize before attempting another push beyond $100,000. However, short-term corrections may still occur with LTHs continuing to take profits and STHs remaining active. Related Reading: Bitcoin Attempt To Dip Below $96K ‘Led To Nothing’ – Analyst Expects $100K Soon The cryptocurrency market also sees strong demand from institutional players, as evidenced by significant ETF inflows. This suggests that, despite short-term volatility, Bitcoin’s long-term outlook remains promising. When writing, BTC trades for $96,353, up slightly by 0.3% in the past day, with a current market capitalization of $1.9 trillion. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart From TradingView