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Bitcoin is trading below the $90,000 level once again, as the market continues to drift through a phase defined by indecision, rising caution, and growing fear. After repeated failures to reclaim this psychological threshold, price action has started to reflect a lack of conviction on both sides, with buyers hesitating to step in aggressively and sellers pressing every rebound attempt. While the broader trend has not fully collapsed, the inability to hold key levels is increasing uncertainty around Bitcoin’s next major move. Related Reading: XRP Distribution Phase Continues, But Funding Rates Suggest Shorts Are Overextended Top analyst Darkfost argues that on-chain signals are starting to mirror conditions typically seen near the end of prolonged drawdowns. According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s unrealized profits and losses are sliding back toward levels that have historically appeared only at the exit of bear markets, when the market has already absorbed a deep reset in sentiment. This shift suggests that stress is building under the surface, even if price has not yet entered a full capitulation phase. Since Bitcoin’s last all-time high, Darkfost notes that many late-arriving investors have moved into uncomfortable territory, facing mounting downside pressure as the market cools. As a result, unrealized profits are shrinking, unrealized losses are expanding, and the overall balance continues to deteriorate—an environment that often forces traders into a decisive choice between holding through volatility or exiting under stress. Decision Point For Bitcoin Investors Darkfost highlighted a chart based on an adjusted version of NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss), designed to capture investor stress more accurately during shifting market regimes. Instead of relying solely on the standard market cap, the model incorporates the realized capitalization of both Short-Term Holders (STHs) and Long-Term Holders (LTHs), then compares that blended realized foundation against Bitcoin’s traditional market cap. The result is a clearer view of how much profit or loss sits “on paper” across the market, filtered through a more structural lens. To reduce noise and better define trend shifts, the metric is smoothed using an average, producing what Darkfost refers to as aNUPL. The key takeaway is that Bitcoin is approaching levels that have historically forced investors into a binary decision. When unrealized profits compress and unrealized losses expand to these ranges, holders typically face two outcomes: hold and continue accumulating, or capitulate and lock in losses. That difference in behavior becomes critical because it shapes liquidity, sentiment, and the next directional trend. If long-term participants absorb the pressure and keep holding, the market can stabilize and rotate back into recovery. But if selling accelerates from stressed cohorts, the decline can deepen into a broader bear phase. This is why tracking realized and unrealized profit dynamics remains essential, especially during periods of uncertainty. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Profit Stalls At 71%: Still Not Enough For A Sustainable Recovery Bitcoin Consolidates After Sharp Weekly Breakdown Bitcoin is trading around $89,000 on the weekly chart after a steep selloff that pushed the price out of its prior distribution zone. The latest candle reflects heavy downside pressure, with BTC dropping roughly 4.8% on the week and struggling to stabilize near a key pivot that has repeatedly acted as support and resistance throughout the cycle. After failing to hold above the psychological $90,000 threshold, the market is now trapped in a tight consolidation range, suggesting traders are waiting for confirmation before committing to a larger move. Related Reading: Ethereum Supply Tightens On Binance As Reserves Hit Lowest Level Since 2016 From a trend standpoint, Bitcoin remains vulnerable as it trades below the blue moving average, which is now acting as overhead resistance near the low-$100K region. The rejection from that dynamic level aligns with the broader structure: BTC topped near the mid-$120K range, then entered a sharp corrective leg that reset momentum into early 2026. While the green moving average continues to slope upward and is approaching the current price zone, the market has not yet shown the strength needed to reclaim its former trend trajectory. Importantly, the weekly structure is now compressing. If buyers can defend the $88K–$90K region and push BTC back above $92K–$95K, it would signal a recovery attempt toward the moving average band. However, a sustained failure here increases the risk of a deeper retracement toward the low-$80K zone, where prior demand previously emerged. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

On Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) dipped below the significant $90,000 mark once again, raising concerns about the possibility of entering a new bear market and casting doubt on the cryptocurrency’s prospects. Market analyst Raun Neuner published a new analysis of the situation in a post on X (formerly Twitter). Is $37,000 On The Horizon?   Neuner highlighted that while stocks are performing robustly and commodities are experiencing what he calls a “supercycle,” the crypto market still struggles to gain traction. This situation raises the critical question: What is the worst-case scenario for Bitcoin? Related Reading: Ethereum Poised For $4,000 Breakout? Expert Pinpoints On-Chain Triggers For Potential Rally Historically, Bitcoin’s bull markets tend to peak approximately 532 days after each Halving event. Applying this pattern to the current cycle suggests that Bitcoin could have reached its peak around early October, where it briefly touched $125,000.  Historical trends show that following these peaks, Bitcoin typically endures a substantial decline of 70 to 80%. If this framework holds for the current cycle, Neuner estimates a potential downturn to around $37,000 in the event of a full bear market. Zooming out to consider broader traditional market dynamics provides further context. After a year marked by strong performances in both stocks and commodities, market corrections are to be expected.  During risk-off periods in equity markets, Bitcoin has historically amplified these downward moves, contributing to building pressure toward the lower end of the spectrum. The analyst indicates that a key reference point for Bitcoin might be around the $57,000 mark, where the 200-week moving average (MA) resides. Critical Bitcoin Support Levels To Watch The immediate factors contributing to Bitcoin’s recent drop below the $90,000 threshold are linked to heightened volatility in global bond and equity markets, exacerbated by geopolitical tensions.  Walter Bloomberg, an expert in market analysis, pointed out that the new downtrend has been spurred by various macroeconomic factors, including renewed threats from President Trump regarding tariffs on Greenland and Japan’s fiscal strategies that have added to market instability.  Related Reading: Is A New XRP Price Record Imminent? Analyst Forecast Colossal Short Squeeze Ahead Consequently, investors have turned to safe-haven assets like gold, which recently reached a record price exceeding $4,700. In response, Bloomberg warns that macro risks may be underappreciated.  Demand for downside protection in Bitcoin’s options market is also rising, indicating that investors are aware of the potential for further declines. The next significant levels for the Bitcoin price in the near term, according to Bloomberg, lie between $84,000 and $85,000, which are expected to act as support for BTC. If the cryptocurrency fails to hold these levels, fears of a deep bear market may become more pronounced. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is down 36% from its recent peak, and the “bear market” label is already circulating across crypto X. But in a thread on Sunday, trader Cristian Chifoi argues that calling a regime shift on the drawdown alone misses the more tradable signal: what happens after the first meaningful rebound, and how price behaves around a tight set of time-based “seasonality windows.” Chifoi’s core claim is that many commentators default to reactive narratives after volatility has already printed. “The simplest way to determine if the Bitcoin bear market has started is not after we had a 36% correction, as all of crypto analysts online suggest,” he wrote. “The same analysts that suggested a supercycle in November 2021 on, while the price was pumping 100%+.” In his framing, the bear-market question is less about the magnitude of the drop and more about whether any bounce that follows looks like strength or a structurally weak countertrend move that fails over time. Is Bitcoin In A Bear Market? Chifoi’s first lens is a cross-check between Bitcoin and USDT dominance (USDT.D), which he describes as an “inverted BTC chart” used as a confluence signal. He also emphasizes timing as the primary indicator, arguing the drawdown has already met a minimum duration he tracks across cycles. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tailwind: Cathie Wood Sees ‘Reaganomics On Steroids’ Ahead “If you are a trader or not, I also suggest you use time as your first indicator, and price as the second,” he wrote. “We had a 77 day correction from top to bottom already. The price couldn’t get lower. That is the signal, rest is noise.” From there, his bear-market confirmation playbook hinges on how far Bitcoin can bounce and how long it can sustain momentum. He outlines USDT.D targets: first around 5.5%, then lower levels like 4.7% and maps them to potential BTC levels. A push “lil’ over 100k,” he said, could still qualify as a “dead cat bounce” if it persists for weeks without follow-through. In that case, the bounce itself becomes evidence of weakness rather than a green light for a renewed uptrend. His second scenario is more uncomfortable for both “cycle is dead” skeptics and early-bear callers: Bitcoin makes a higher high, potentially into the $115,000–$120,000 range, but then stalls out over a multi-week window. Even that, in Chifoi’s view, could be consistent with a bear-market transition if time passes and price cannot “deliver more gains,” turning a nominal breakout into a distribution-like top. “It is the same game!” he added, arguing that traders should be watching for the same failure mode at different price levels rather than anchoring to a single number. Chifoi’s second framework is seasonality, centered on a window around January 20 (plus or minus a few days) extending into late March or early April. He says he has been tracking this as a primary decision point since the start of 2026, and frames it as a fork between two paths: either Bitcoin rallies into that date to set a pivot high and roll over, or it forms a pivot low around that date and then pushes higher into the next time pivot. “A pump into the January 20, over $100-$110k would mean a pivot high and the continuation down into next time pivot,” he wrote. The alternative, he said, is “January 20 pivot low, and then continuation up to next time pivot,” adding he is watching this week’s price action “until Friday” for confirmation. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Take Profits: 41,800 BTC Sent To Exchanges At the time of writing, Chifoi leans toward the latter interpretation. “For now it seems pretty clear that we are developing a pivot low, and the next move is the opposite one versus what we had from October 6th until now,” he said. Chifoi positions most market participants into two “camps”: those calling for a supercycle or declaring the cycle framework broken, and those asserting a bear market began in October and ends in October 2026 “just like 2022.” He argues both could get forced into poor positioning if Bitcoin prints a new high in the coming weeks before selling off after April. His own risk case is broader and more time-focused: a new high followed by a sustained decline into late 2026 or early 2027, which he calls his “next important time pivot.” In that context, the operational takeaway is less about predicting a bear market today and more about letting the next rebound and the January-to-spring window define whether this is a reset inside a broader uptrend or the start of a longer distribution-to-downtrend transition. “Pay attention these next few weeks,” Chifoi wrote. “I do not know what will happen, but the plan is already set up and will adapt my positioning accordingly, whichever scenario plays out, because I already know what to do in either of the cases.” At press time, BTC traded at $92,836. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

The founder of CryptoQuant doesn’t think Bitcoin will see a major crash of more than 50% like past bear markets and instead sees sideways action ahead. Bitcoin Has Seen A Slowdown In Realized Cap Recently In a new post on X, CrypotQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has talked about how capital inflows into Bitcoin have dried up recently. The on-chain indicator that Young Ju has cited is the “Realized Cap,” which measures the cryptocurrency’s total value by assuming that the value of each token in circulation is equal to the last time that it changed hands. In short, what the Realized Cap signifies is the total amount of capital that the investors of the asset as a whole have put into the network. Changes in the metric, therefore, signify the exit or entry of capital relative to BTC. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Cap enjoyed sharp growth between late 2023 and late 2025, indicating that the coin was receiving continuous injections of capital. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bounce A Bull Trap? Analyst Sees 2022-Style Bear Flag Recently, however, the uptrend in the indicator has seemingly broken, with its value facing a small net decline. In the past, bull markets have coincided with an upward trajectory in the Realized Cap, with a transition to weak inflows or net outflows leading into bearish phases. Considering that the metric’s trend is now hinting at the latter type of market conditions, it’s possible that a bearish transition might be occurring for the cryptocurrency. That said, the analyst has pointed out that the latest cycle isn’t the same as the ones from before. “Liquidity channels are more diverse now, so timing inflows is pointless,” noted Young Ju. “Institutions holding long-term killed the old whale-retail sell cycle.” Examples of demand channels that didn’t exist before include treasury companies like Strategy and investment vehicles like the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs). “I don’t think we’ll see a -50%+ crash from ATH like past bear markets,” said the CryptoQuant founder. “Just boring sideways for the next few months.” It now remains to be seen what trajectory Bitcoin will end up following. In some other news, on-chain demand as gauged by the Realized Cap isn’t the only one that has declined recently. As CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has highlighted in an X post, demand from retail investors has also been missing. In the chart, the metric shown is the 30-day percentage change in the volume associated with the retail investors, the smallest of hands on the network. This indicator has been negative lately, implying that the volume of transactions valued at less $10,000 has been declining on a monthly timeframe. Related Reading: Solana ETF Volume Explodes: Anomaly Or New Normal? This hasn’t changed even after the recent recovery surge in Bitcoin. “The crowd hasn’t returned—yet,” noted Maartunn. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $89,900, up 2% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Despite the recent price action, Bitcoin (BTC) closed 2025 as the year with the lowest volatility in its history, driven by market maturity, regulatory developments, and the increasing participation of institutions in the crypto space. Related Reading: Ethereum Optimism For 2026: Analysts Share Bullish Forecast Despite Disappointing End-Of-Year Bitcoin Records Least Volatile Year On Friday, K33 Research data revealed that Bitcoin has recorded the least volatile year in the asset’s history. According to the chart, the flagship cryptocurrency saw its lowest volatility level, measured by the average deviation of daily returns, in 2025, hitting just 2.24%. The recent data shows that BTC fell below the previous lowest year on record, 2023, which registered 2.30% volatility. Moreover, it’s annual volatility has also ended below the 3% mark over the past three years, its lowest levels since 2016. This signals a “clear” diminishing trend, K33 Research noted, as Bitcoin’s volatility has been trending lower year by year, suggesting growing market maturity and stabilizing price action. Crypto trader Niels highlighted that “for the first time, BTC recorded its lowest annual volatility on record, lower than every cycle before it, including the early ‘wild west’ years and the post-ETF era.” As he explained, 2025 was “the calmest year in Bitcoin’s history” despite all the price movements of the years, including the Q4 daily corrections, which saw the flagship crypto retrace up to 16% in a single day. It’s worth noting that BTC’s deepest correction in 2025 saw the cryptocurrency drop nearly 36% in a two-month period, while previous cycles’ corrections recorded retraces of more than 50% during similar periods. Previously, Nic Carter addressed the negative sentiment brewing around Bitcoin and the broader market. He detailed that the market could be considered “boring” now because most of the questions that drove the historical volatility have been answered. Carter also asserted that the space matured significantly with “more serious businesses (…), [and] less chaos” in the industry. The Start Of The ‘Institutional Era’ In his X post, Niels also pointed out that the diminishing trend in Bitcoin volatility was fueled by the massive institutional participation, calling for “More capital. More long-term holders. More institutional participation. [and] Less emotional trading” for the future. Similarly, Bitwise’s CEO, Hunter Horsley has affirmed that the overall crypto market was changing, driven by the significant decrease in regulatory risk, which has led to last year’s spike in institutional adoption and mainstream recognition. Notably, the market saw the second of wave of crypto Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) go live, with funds based on altcoins like Solana (SOL) and XRP breaking multiple records. In addition, the Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) trend, led by Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases, poured billions of dollars into cryptocurrencies in 2025. Related Reading: Crypto Hacks Swipe Nearly $3 Billion In 2025 Despite Fewer Attacks – Report In November, Ark Invest’s CEO Cathie Wood stated that growing institutional adoption will be a powerful driver for long-term value for Bitcoin, noting that large-scale institutions have barely dipped their toes into the space and “have a long way to go.” Meanwhile, Head of Research at Grayscale, Zach Pandl, said in an January 2 interview that 2026 could be the “dawn of the institutional era” for crypto. He noted that rising demand for alternative stores of value and progress on bipartisan US crypto market structure legislation could drive Bitcoin to new highs in the first half of the year. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $90,240, a 1.54% increase in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s price action has pushed a closely watched on-chain profitability gauge into a configuration that, in 2022, preceded an extended drawdown and one analyst says a break below $70,000 would risk repeating that “year-long” reset. In a Dec. 30 morning brief, Axel Adler Jr. argued that Bitcoin’s “Supply in Profit” trend is at an inflection point after BTC stabilized in the $87,000–$90,000 range following the pullback from October highs. The metric, which tracks how much BTC is held above its acquisition price, has fallen sharply from October peaks above 19 million BTC to roughly 13.2 million BTC, creating a sizable gap between short- and medium-term moving averages. A 2022-Like Setup Looms For Bitcoin Adler’s core signal is the spread between the 30-day and 90-day simple moving averages of Supply in Profit. After the correction from the all-time high, the 30-day average “dropped significantly below” the 90-day, forming a gap of about 1.75 million BTC. Adler noted that “a similar configuration was observed in 2022 before an extended bearish period,” but stressed an important distinction this time: the 365-day moving average remains “at historically elevated levels for now,” implying the longer-term profit structure hasn’t fully rolled over. Related Reading: US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve: Key Catalyst For Potential Surge Toward $150,000 Next Year The near-term question is whether the 30-day trend has bottomed. Adler flagged Dec. 18 as a local minimum for the 30-day average and said it is now “beginning to turn around,” with confirmation tied to a simple condition: Supply in Profit must hold above its 30-day average, which in practice requires BTC to keep its footing at current levels or higher. Adler’s projection for a bullish recovery in this signal is unusually specific: he estimates the gap between the 30-day and 90-day averages is narrowing at roughly 28,000 BTC per day, mainly because the 90-day average is being pulled down mechanically as high October values roll out of the window. “Why is SMA 90 falling while price remains stable?” Adler wrote in the brief’s FAQ. “This is a mechanical effect of the moving average: values from early October are now dropping out of the 90-day window, when Supply in Profit was at peaks of 18–20M BTC with price at $115–125K. Even with stable current Supply, this pulls the average down.” Related Reading: 2026 Bitcoin Price Predictions: What Banks, Institutions And Experts Forecast That rollover effect, Adler said, should persist through late January, providing a “tailwind” that could allow the 30-day line to reclaim the 90-day line even without a dramatic surge in Supply in Profit. If the current rates of change hold, Adler projects a bullish cross — where the 30-day average rises above the 90-day — in late February to early March. The Invalidation: $70,000 The forecast, however, is explicitly price-sensitive. Adler estimated Supply in Profit has “elasticity to price” of 1.3x, meaning a 10% BTC drawdown could translate into about a 13% drop in the supply held in profit. In his model, the market’s critical fault line is the $70,000 zone. “At what price does the cross scenario get invalidated?” Adler wrote. “The critical zone is below $70K. At that level, Supply would fall to ~10M BTC, and SMA 30 would begin declining faster than SMA 90. The GAP would stop narrowing and shift to expansion, postponing the bullish signal indefinitely.” In that scenario, Adler said the setup would more closely mirror 2022: the spread expands rather than compresses, and the bullish cross gets pushed out, with recovery potentially taking “up to one year.” By contrast, he framed the constructive path as holding above $75,000–$80,000 through January, keeping Supply in Profit supported and preserving the convergence pace. At press time, BTC traded at $88,102. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has lost more than 30% of its value since early October, triggering a sharp shift in market psychology. What was once viewed as a routine correction is increasingly being interpreted by analysts as a potential cycle top. Sentiment has deteriorated quickly, with fear and apathy replacing the optimism that dominated earlier in the year. Many investors are now positioning defensively, preparing for what they believe could be a prolonged bear market phase similar to past post-peak cycles. Related Reading: Who Really Sold The Dip? On-Chain Data Exposes Bitcoin’s True Sellers However, a recent CryptoQuant report challenges this increasingly popular narrative. According to the analysis, Bitcoin may no longer be following the traditional four-year boom-and-bust cycle that has defined its historical price behavior. Instead, the report introduces the Bitcoin Supercycle thesis, which argues that the classic halving-driven cycle structure could be breaking down in favor of a more extended, structurally supported bull market. The core idea behind the supercycle framework is that Bitcoin’s market dynamics have fundamentally changed. Unlike previous cycles driven largely by speculative retail flows, the current environment is shaped by new forces that did not exist in earlier eras. These structural shifts may be altering how drawdowns, tops, and recoveries unfold, potentially smoothing volatility over longer time horizons. The New Fundamentals Behind Bitcoin’s Supercycle Thesis According to the CryptoQuant report, the case for a potential Bitcoin supercycle is built on structural forces that were absent in previous market cycles. The most significant shift comes from institutional adoption. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, led by issuers such as BlackRock, have introduced a persistent and regulated source of demand from traditional finance. Unlike speculative retail flows, these vehicles treat Bitcoin as a strategic asset allocation, creating steady absorption rather than short-lived hype. On-chain data further reinforces this narrative. Exchange reserves continue to trend lower, signaling long-term accumulation and reduced sell-side pressure. At the same time, the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remains relatively rational. Profit-taking is occurring, but without the euphoric spikes historically associated with cycle tops, suggesting a more mature and disciplined market structure. Infrastructure readiness is another critical pillar. While Bitcoin remains the core asset, scalability improvements across the broader crypto ecosystem—such as Ethereum’s Fusaka upgrade and the rapid expansion of Layer-2 networks—are enabling faster, cheaper transactions and real-world use cases. This enhances Bitcoin’s role as a settlement and reserve asset within a growing digital economy. Finally, the macro backdrop remains supportive. Geopolitical instability and the prospect of future monetary easing strengthen Bitcoin’s appeal as a neutral, decentralized hard asset. Together, these forces form a credible foundation for an extended supercycle, though the report cautions that external shocks could still disrupt this trajectory. Related Reading: XRP Liquidity Dries Up: Futures Buy Volume On Binance Falls from $5.8B to $250M Price Action Shows Weak Structure Near Key Support Bitcoin’s short-term structure remains fragile, as shown on the 4-hour chart. Price continues to trade below the $90,000 psychological level, with repeated failures to reclaim key moving averages reinforcing the bearish bias. The 200-period moving average (red) is clearly sloping downward and acting as dynamic resistance near the $92,000–$93,000 zone, while the 100- and 50-period averages (green and blue) have compressed and rolled over, signaling fading upside momentum. After the sharp sell-off earlier in the month, Bitcoin attempted a recovery but stalled below descending resistance. Since then, the price has formed a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming a short-term downtrend. The current consolidation around $86,000–$87,000 suggests indecision, but notably, bounces are becoming weaker, indicating limited demand on relief rallies. Related Reading: Market Stress Continues As Bitcoin STH SOPR Dips Below 1– When Will The Pain End? From a technical perspective, the $85,000–$86,000 area represents a critical support zone. A sustained break below this range would likely open the door to a deeper correction. Conversely, bulls would need a decisive reclaim of $90,000, followed by acceptance above the descending moving averages, to meaningfully shift momentum. Until then, the chart favors consolidation with downside risk. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) tries to hold the $90,000 barrier, some analysts affirm that the flagship crypto’s bear market signals are becoming clearer, suggesting that a breakdown to new lows could be around the corner. Related Reading: Dogecoin Could Stage A 600% Rally In 2026 If This Multi-Year Support Holds Bitcoin Bear Flag Raises Concerns On Friday, Bitcoin shredded its Thursday gains, dropping 3.2% intraday to retest the $89,500-$90,500 support zone once again. The cryptocurrency has been trading between the $84,500-$94,500 range for the past four weeks, briefly falling to a seven-month low of $80,600 during the late November correction. This week, the flagship crypto’s price has seen more volatility, fueled by the expectations of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut and positive regulatory developments in the US. However, BTC has failed to successfully break and hold above its local range’s upper boundary after multiple retests, ultimately falling to the mid-zone of its range. Analyst Ted Pillows highlighted a concerning pattern on Bitcoin’s chart, warning that the cryptocurrency risks a drop to new multi-month lows if the price fails to hold key support levels. Per the post, BTC has been forming a bear flag for nearly a month, which “is too hard to ignore” after the price continues to be rejected from the formation’s upper boundary. The analyst affirmed that this pattern follows a trend that has been developing over the past two months. As he pointed out, bearish flags have been continuously forming on BTC’s chart since the October 10 market pullback, with each pattern resolving in a breakdown to lower levels. To Ted, the new formation signals “that the overall trend is still to the downside.” He suggested that a close above the $96,000 level would invalidate the bearish pattern. On the contrary, a drop to below the $86,000 support, where the formation’s lower boundary is located, could push Bitcoin to the April lows, around the $76,000 mark. Is The 2022 Playbook Repeating? The market observer also noted a resemblance between the last cycle and the current one, which could lead to a drop below the $70,000 level. The chart shows that after losing the 50-Week EMA indications, Bitcoin consolidated within a bear flag before breaking down and descending to the 2022 lows. Now, BTC displays a similar performance after losing the 50-Week EMA and breaking down from its October bear flag. “If this plays out, a pump to $100,000 and then a dump below $70,000” would follow, the analyst added. Meanwhile, Robert Mercer shared a similar perspective in a series of X posts. The analyst affirmed that the classic four-year cycle has not changed despite the significant increase in institutional adoption: Bitcoin is breaking crucial supports one by one and entering a bear market. The same happened back in the end of 2021. At the moment, BTC is forming an ascending channel with the top near $100,000 – $104,000, you can see a clear Right Shoulder of H&S in this move. Something similar happened in the beginning of 2022. He also asserted that Bitcoin shows a similar picture “from the 1W MA50 perspective,” as BTC has traded below this indicator for multiple weeks now for the first time in the bullish cycle. Related Reading: Cathie Wood Says Bitcoin Is ‘Climbing Another Wall Of Worry’– Here’s Why Nonetheless, he concluded that “no such breakdown happens without a retest,” forecasting a relief bounce up to $98,000-$102,000, followed by a dump to the support level of $55,000-$60,000. As of this writing, BTC Trades at $89,990, a 2.75% decline in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is trading in a world where headlines still scream “bull” or “bear” while the underlying structure quietly refuses to play along. After spiking to an all-time high in the $124,000–$126,000 zone in early October and then shedding roughly a third of its value into November, BTC now sits in the low-$90,000s, still dominant but clearly winded. Into that confusion steps pseudonymous renowned crypto industry veteran plur daddy (@plur_daddy) who suggests the market may be in neither regime at all. “Because of the 4 year cycle, all crypto market participants are primed to view the market as either in a bull or bear phase,” he wrote on X. “What if, as a part of the market maturing, we are simply in an extended consolidation window where overhead supply is being absorbed?” It is a simple framing shift with fairly big implications. He points to gold, which “chopped between $1,650–2,050 from April 2020 to March 2024,” and argues it is “logical to assume that as BTC evolves, it will exhibit more gold-like behaviors.” In other words: not dead, not euphoric, just… stuck in a fat, liquidity-soaked range where supply changes hands from weak to strong for longer than traders raised on clean halving cycles are emotionally prepared to tolerate. Related Reading: Standard Chartered Cuts 2026 Bitcoin Price Prediction By 50% The range dynamics are already visible at the top end. According to plur, “sellers emerged aggressively whenever price entered the $120k range.” He notes there are “strong arguments” those sellers were driven by the four-year cycle meme, but “equally good arguments” they were reacting to more prosaic considerations: age, price, liquidity, thesis change, and “emerging tail risks.” If BTC revisits that zone, he thinks it is “rational for people to front run that, which helps reinforce the range.” Classic reflexivity: people remembering the last top create the next one. On the downside, he is not in the doom camp. “This also dovetails with my intuitive feeling that the lows may be in, or at the least not significantly lower than what we have seen, but upside also being capped,” he wrote, adding that liquidity conditions are “poised to moderately improve,” creating room for a bounce – just not necessarily a new regime. Or as he put it with some restraint, he’d “be cautious about betting on regime change.” Bitcoin Market Puzzled: QE Or Not QE? That “moderate improvement” is not theoretical. Yesterday’s FOMC meeting delivered a 25-basis-point rate cut, taking the Fed funds target to 3.50–3.75%, alongside a surprise announcement: roughly $40 billion a month in “reserve management purchases” (RMPs) of short-dated Treasuries, starting December 12 and guided to remain elevated for several months. The official line is that this is a technical step to keep reserves “ample” and repo markets functioning, not a new round of QE. Macro voices on X are, unsurprisingly, not unified on that distinction. Plur Daddy added via X: “This is different from QE because the main way that QE works is through pulling duration out of the market, forcing market participants to move up the risk curve. However, they snuck in there that they may buy up to 3 year treasury notes, which means some duration will be getting taken out. This is more bullish than expected, and helps bridge market liquidity into the new year.” Miad Kasravi (@ZFXtrading) insists, “FED is NOT doing QE. Just expanding balance sheet via Money-market displacement,” arguing that when the Fed buys bills, the prior holder gets cash that “has to go somewhere” and “some of it seeps into credit, equities, crypto.” Related Reading: Wall Street Giant Bernstein Predicts Bitcoin Price To Hit $1 Million By 2033 LondonCryptoClub takes the gloves off. In his view, the Fed is “basically going to print money to keep funding this deficit for as long and as large as needed,” adding that “the debasement trade is on autopilot mode.” He backs Lyn Alden’s earlier remark that “it’s money printing. Whether it’s QE or not is more semantics. Fed won’t call it QE since it’s not duration and it’s not for economic stimulus.” Lyn Alden nails it Markets are going to tie themselves up arguing over the semantics and overcomplicating it Yet they’re printing money and monetising the deficit It’s all the same thing. Admittedly, this is QE-lite…for now at least Believe it or not, market participants… https://t.co/cf7QLogWom — LondonCryptoClub (@LDNCryptoClub) December 10, 2025 Peter Schiff, predictably but not entirely irrationally, commented via X: “QE by any other name is still inflation. The Fed just announced it will be buying T-bills “on an ongoing basis.” Given that long-term rates will rise on this inflationary policy shift, it won’t be long before the Fed expands and extends QE5 to longer-dated maturities. Got gold?” So The Takeaway Is? As Plur notes, these operations expand bank reserves and ease repo stress; the Fed will primarily buy T-bills, but “they may buy up to 3 year treasury notes, which means some duration will be getting taken out.” That edges the program closer to “QE-lite” than pure plumbing. It is supportive for risk assets and it arrives precisely during the year-end liquidity doldrums, with further balance-sheet expansion mechanisms waiting in the wings. For Bitcoin, the uncomfortable answer right now is that both things can be true: the “debasement trade” is structurally alive, while price action behaves like a large, semi-institutional asset digesting a brutal rally and a fresh macro shock. Another six to eighteen months of rangebound churn, as plur suggests, “wouldn’t be strange at all.” Whether you label that bull, bear, or just purgatory is mostly a narrative choice. Markets, frankly, will trade it the same either way. At press time, BTC traded at $90,060. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Ark Invest’s CEO and CIO, Cathie Wood, joined Fox Business’s “Morning With Maria” to discuss her investment strategy as she believes the US is entering a “historic productivity surge,” and why she is bullish on Bitcoin (BTC) for 2026. Related Reading: All Eyes On Ethereum: Price Attempts Key Breakout As BlackRock Files For Staked ETH ETF The Four-Year Cycle Will Be ‘Disrupted’ On Tuesday, Ark Invest’s CEO, Cathie Wood, shared her perspective on the recent Bitcoin performance, which has retraced over 10% in the past month and struggled to reclaim crucial levels over the past few weeks. To Wood, Bitcoin has been behaving like a risk-on asset and is currently “climbing another wall of worry” that has made investors wary of the leading crypto asset’s upcoming performance. As she explained, there is a fear of the four-year cycle, which suggests that 2026 will be a corrective year for Bitcoin. Historically, BTC has seen significant price pullbacks during bear markets, with retraces of up to 75% to 90% in previous cycles. The aggressive Q4 2025 correction has shattered most investors’ expectations of an end-of-year bull run, raising concerns that the crypto market has already entered the bearish phase of the cycle after the more than 30% drop from the October highs. However, Ark Invest’s CEO considers that “the four-year cycle is going to be disrupted” as volatility has significantly diminished over the past few years, and large-scale investors turn to the rapidly growing industry. “We think that the move by institutions into this new asset class is going to prevent much more of a decline,” Wood affirmed, noting, “we might have seen it a couple of weeks ago,” when BTC managed to hold the $80,000 barrier during the late November correction. She previously asserted that growing institutional adoption will be a powerful driver for long-term value for the cryptocurrency, adding that institutions “really have just dipped their toes into this space. We have just started, so we have a long way to go.” Bitcoin To Outperform Gold Soon?   During the interview, Wood also reaffirmed her previous forecast that the flagship crypto will outperform gold next year, despite its choppy performance during the last quarter of 2025. She highlighted that “gold is more of a risk-off asset,” and its 60% year-to-date (YTD) rise is “proof” that Bitcoin is climbing a wall of worry as investors “are using gold as a hedge against geopolitical risks.” Nonetheless, Ark Invest’s CEO pointed out that between the early 80s and the late 90s, gold peaked and “went down as we were in the golden age of innovation, ending with the internet.” Related Reading: Wall Street Giant Bernstein Predicts Bitcoin Price To Hit $1 Million By 2033 Now, she believes that the same could happen soon, as what she calls “the AI age” starts and the market potentially recovers. Meanwhile, she forecasted that Bitcoin would remain risk-on and outperform gold in 2026. “I really believe we are moving from a rolling recession where we’ve been for the last three years, into a rolling recovery, which we think we are entering now. Then, a productivity-driven boom the likes of which we have never seen before,” Wood concluded.  As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $94,011, a 3.75% increase in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out how the current Bitcoin market is reminiscent to the structure from the first quarter of 2022. Bitcoin Dynamics Are Currently Looking Similar To Early 2022 Bear Market In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has discussed about how the broader Bitcoin market structure is starting to resemble Q1 2022. First, the analytics firm has shared the data of its Supply Quantiles Cost Basis Model, highlighting price levels that correspond to a certain degree of investor profitability. In the chart, three supply quantiles are listed: 0.75, 0.85, and 0.95. If Bitcoin trades at the first of these levels, 75% of the supply will be in profit. Similarly, the latter two correspond to 85% and 95% profitability, respectively. Related Reading: Ethereum Back At $3,200 As Sharks Show Strong Accumulation It’s visible in the graph that Bitcoin has recently fallen below all three of these levels, indicating more than 25% of the cryptocurrency’s supply is now underwater. “This creates a fragile balance between the risk of top-buyer capitulation and the potential for seller exhaustion to form a bottom,” explained Glassnode. BTC similarly broke below the 0.75 quantile back during the sideways market of early 2022. Another indicator that reinforces the resemblance is the Total Supply in Loss, which measures, as its name suggests, the amount of the Bitcoin circulating supply that’s being held at some net unrealized loss. Below is a chart showing the 7-day moving average (MA) trend in the metric. As displayed in the graph, the 7-day MA Bitcoin Total Supply in Loss hit a high of 7.1 million BTC last week, which is the highest that it has been since September 2023, more than two years ago. The analytics firm noted: The current scale of supply in loss, ranging between 5M–7M BTC, is strikingly similar to the early-2022 sideways market, further reinforcing the resemblance noted above. Finally, the Bitcoin long-term holder Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) also implies that the current market structure is mirroring Q1 2022. This metric tells us, in short, whether the Bitcoin investors holding since more than 155 days ago are selling their coins at a profit or loss. The Bitcoin long-term holder SOPR has witnessed a sharp decline recently, but its value is still above 1, indicating the long-term holders are selling at some net profit. With its current value of 1.43, however, there has been a notable shrinkage in the profit margins of the cohort. Related Reading: Next Key XRP Level Could Be $1.2 If Current Support Fails, Says Analyst It now remains to be seen whether the trends in these indicators mean that the cryptocurrency is on the cusp of a bear market transition like in early 2022, or if a rebound will come before long. BTC Price Bitcoin has seen a slight pullback during the past day as its price has dropped to $91,800. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed in a report how long-term Bitcoin liquidity has witnessed a sharp decline alongside the market downturn. Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Liquidity Ratio Has Plunged Recently In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has talked about how liquidity in the Bitcoin market has changed following the recent downturn. Glassnode has gauged the “liquidity” using the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio, an on-chain metric that measures the ratio between the profit and loss that BTC investors are realizing through their transactions. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s New ‘Line In The Sand’ May Be $82,000, Not $56,000: Analyst Current demand momentum can be tracked using a version of this indicator that specifically tracks the profitability of the short-term holders (STHs), investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. As the below chart shows, the STH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio was at relatively high levels earlier, but since early October, its value has plummeted. With a value of just 0.07, the indicator is now sitting deep inside the loss region, a sign that the recent Bitcoin buyers have overwhelmingly been capitulating at a loss. “Such overwhelming loss dominance confirms that liquidity has evaporated, especially after the heavy demand absorption seen in Q2–Q3 2025 as long-term holders increased their spending,” explained the analytics firm. The metric fell to similar lows back in Q1 2022, but so far, market weakness hasn’t been as prolonged. The report noted that if the ratio continues to be depressed, market conditions could mirror those from back then. While short-term demand momentum has collapsed, the same hasn’t been true for long-term liquidity, at least not yet. Long-term momentum can be measured using the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio of the long-term holders (LTHs), representing the more resolute section of the market (holding time greater than 155 days). From the above chart, it’s visible that the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the Bitcoin LTH Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has witnessed a sharp decline as BTC has crashed. Despite the drop, however, the metric’s value is still 408, implying LTHs are realizing, on average, a profit that’s 408 times the loss. This means that the long-term liquidity is still healthy compared to Q1 2022, or even the major bottom formations from the current cycle. Glassnode warned, however, “if liquidity continues to fade and this ratio compresses toward 10x or lower, the probability of transitioning into a deeper bear market becomes difficult to ignore.” Related Reading: XRP Rebounds From Channel Bottom, Analyst Says $2.60 Could Be Next It now remains to be seen how the LTH Realized Profit/Loss will change for Bitcoin in the near future, and if liquidity will see a further squeeze. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $90,600, down 1.3% over the past week. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

Cardano (ADA) founder Charles Hoskinson previously projected that the Bitcoin price could reach an impressive price of $250,000 as early as this year. This bold forecast, made in April, came at a time when Bitcoin was trading at $77,000 after achieving a record high of $109,000 in January.  Hoskinson’s Optimistic Bitcoin Price Forecast Hoskinson’s optimism was based on his belief that international negotiations, particularly between the US and China, would favor Bitcoin’s growth.  The Cardano founder suggested that easing tariffs would lead to a positive market reaction and bolster adoption, particularly with the anticipated passage of the GENIUS Act, which was signed into law by President Trump a few months later. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dips Below $90,000—Yet Altcoins Remain Unscathed: Here’s Why However, the current market realities have raised doubts about Hoskinson’s prediction. Since then, Bitcoin has experienced significant fluctuations, briefly regaining momentum to reach $126,000 mid-October, only to see the broader crypto market subsequently shed over $1 trillion in total market cap.  This downturn has largely been attributed to persistent selling pressure by concerned investors, and substantial outflows from the Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) sector, with nearly $2 billion sold over since October. As it stands, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $89,300, marking a nearly 30% decline from its recently achieved all-time highs. In light of this, Jacob King, CEO of Swandesk, publicly dismissed Hoskinson’s $250,000 price target, characterizing it as unrealistic.  Is Bitcoin In A New Bear Market Cycle? In a post on social media platform X (formerly Twitter), King stated that such lofty price predictions are “pulled out of thin air” and reflect a market still grappling with “delusions.” King elaborated on his viewpoint, suggesting that the industry is in the early stages of a new bear market cycle.  He is not alone in this assessment. Market expert Lark Davis recently noted that, based on the classic four-year Bitcoin price cycle, the cryptocurrency has officially entered bear market territory.  Davis commented that this scenario leaves two possibilities: either the established four-year cycle is no longer relevant, or the market has indeed shifted into a bearish phase. Given the current macroeconomic backdrop, he leans toward the latter interpretation. Related Reading: Kraken Achieves $20 Billion Valuation With $200 Million Investment From Citadel Additionally, others in the market have echoed these bearish sentiments. An analyst known as Mr. Wall Street has recently speculated that the Bitcoin price peaked at $126,000.  The analyst believes that this may mark the zenith for this cycle, predicting that the Bitcoin price could next face significant downward pressure, potentially slipping to a range between $74,000 and $82,000. He further forecasts a possible decline to levels between $54,000 and $60,000 by the fourth quarter of 2026. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin (BTC), the leading cryptocurrency, has made headlines this week by consistently breaking all-time highs, recently surpassing the $126,000 mark for the first time.  However, the current price action has not only drawn attention from investors but also reignited discussions surrounding a notable prediction made two years ago. An anonymous user had forecasted that Bitcoin would achieve a peak on October 6, 2025—a prediction that came to fruition just yesterday. Potential New Bear Market Ahead Despite this milestone, Bitcoin has retraced to around $121,000 within hours after today’s record, leading to a wave of liquidations from long positions across various exchanges.  This rapid price fluctuation has led many to speculate that the recent peak could potentially mark the cycle’s all-time high, suggesting that Bitcoin might soon enter a new bear market phase. Related Reading: Is A $10,000 Ethereum Price Within Reach? Here’s What Experts Are Forecasting Next The prediction made in December 2023 posits that if historical patterns hold true, the bear market low is expected to occur precisely 364 days later. This theory has gained traction amidst today’s volatility, with experts warning that a shift in market sentiment could be imminent.  Market analyst Doctor Profit has recently cautioned that despite the current bullish trend, the market is entering a precarious phase. He noted that while there is a prevailing sense of euphoria, underlying financial indicators are signaling a potential liquidity crisis. Highlighting the current situation, Doctor Profit pointed to the Reverse Repo (RRP) market, which has plummeted from a peak of $2.2 trillion in mid-2022 to a mere $8–10 billion today.  This decline raises concerns about the stability of interbank liquidity, suggesting that the financial system may soon face significant dislocations if the RRP continues to dry up. Historical parallels from 2018, 2019, and 2023 indicate that such liquidity issues often precede major market corrections. Moreover, US banks are reportedly grappling with approximately $395 billion in unrealized losses as of the second quarter of the year, putting additional pressure on their balance sheets.  Expert Sounds The Bitcoin Alarm In the crypto space, recent trends reveal substantial inflows into exchange-traded funds (ETFs), with firms like BlackRock contributing over $1 billion in Bitcoin and $200 million in Ethereum just last week.  However, Doctor Profit contends that the market’s broader liquidity picture remains concerning. While retail traders are expressing optimism about a “liquidity flood,” the expert cautions that the influx of cash into money market funds could actually drain liquidity from broader markets rather than enhance it. Related Reading: BNB Price Hits $1,240 Record High: Partners With Chainlink For On-Chain US Economic Data The current market environment is also characterized by a notable uptick in insider selling, according to the expert’s broader landscape analysis, in which executives are reportedly offloading shares at an unprecedented rate, even as retail investor inflows surge.  The expert believes that this alleged market manipulation often signals a market cycle peak, creating what he believes “a highly toxic mix” that could have adverse implications for future price movements. In conclusion, Doctor Profit notes that the overall sentiment paints a bearish picture at a macro level. Both the crypto and stock markets are seen as being at an increased risk of entering a bear market after the fourth quarter.  Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com 

CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index has jumped from 20 to 50 in just four days, suggesting a swift shift out of bearish territory for the asset. Bitcoin Bull Score Index Is Back In Neutral Region In a new post on X, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno has talked about the latest trend in the analytics firm’s Bull Score Index. This indicator basically tells us about which phase of the market Bitcoin is in right now. The index combines the data of several key on-chain metrics to determine its value. Some of these indicators include the Market Value to Realized Cap (MVRV) Ratio, keeping track of average investor profitability on the network, and the Stablecoin Liquidity, measuring the amount of capital stored in the form of fiat-tied tokens. Related Reading: Bitcoin Inflows In Last 1.5 Years Surpassed First 15 Years Combined: Data When the Bull Score Index has a value of 60 or higher, it means the majority of the underlying metrics are currently giving a bullish signal. On the other hand, the metric’s value being 40 or lower implies BTC is in a bear phase according to its indicators. Now, here is the chart shared by Moreno that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Bull Score Index over the past year: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin Bull Score Index was sitting at a low of just 20 four days ago, but since then, its value has witnessed a sharp climb to the 50 level. This means that on-chain metrics are signaling neutral market conditions for the asset now. This shift comes just as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) kicks off its two-day meeting on Tuesday. BTC price itself has taken to sideways movement ahead of it, indicating that the market is divided about the event’s outcome. Analytics firm Santiment has shared in an X post about how social media users are reacting to the meeting. In the chart, Santiment has attached the data of the “Positive/Negative Sentiment,” an indicator that compares the bullish and bearish posts related to Bitcoin that are appearing on the major social media platforms. This metric has surged recently and hit the 1.77 mark, suggesting that there are 1.77 positive comments being made for every negative comment related to the cryptocurrency. This is the most bullish that retail traders have been on social media in around 10 weeks. Related Reading: XRP Bearish Signal: Whales Offload $486 Million In Asset While some excitement can be normal, an excess of it isn’t usually a positive sign. As the analytics firm explains, “historically, markets move in the opposite direction of retail’s expectations.” BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $115,700, up more than 2.5% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, Santiment.net, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin network activity has recently declined into the bear market zone. Here’s what this could mean for the asset. CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Network Activity Index Is Flashing A Bear Market Signal As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin Network Activity Index has recently been inside the bear phase. The “Network Activity Index” here refers to an indicator from CryptoQuant that essentially tracks the amount of activity that the BTC network is witnessing. Related Reading: Bitcoin In The Middle Of A Decision Point, Analyst Says—Here’s Why The metric uses the data of different activity-related indicators like the transaction count and daily active addresses in order to determine the situation on the blockchain. Here is the chart shared by the quant that shows the trend in the index and its various moving averages (MAs) over the cryptocurrency’s history: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Network Activity Index reached a peak last year, but since December, the metric has been sharply moving down, implying the demand for using the network has been waning. Generally, a surge in user activity is what provides the fuel that any move in the asset’s price needs to be sustainable, so an increase in the Network Activity Index may be considered constructive, while a decrease a bad sign. Recently, the trend in the network activity has developed in such a manner that the index has entered into what’s considered as a “bear phase.” From the chart, it’s visible that this red signal has maintained even after the latest recovery rally. The signal has historically come alongside bear markets for Bitcoin (arriving before the price low is in), but there was one notable exception: the second half of the bull run in 2021. The Network Activity Index signaled a bear phase during this rally, which suggests that, from the perspective of chain usage, this run was always unlikely to last. This may be one of the reasons why the price couldn’t reach a much higher top than the May 2021 one during this bull run. Nonetheless, Bitcoin was still able to witness a notable period of bullish momentum back then despite the Network Activity Index signal. Thus, while the latest red signal from the metric can indicate the presence of a bear market, it could also just be a signal for a buying opportunity. Related Reading: Bitcoin Recovery Fueled By Almost $19 Billion In Crypto Inflows, Data Shows In some other news, the combined market cap of the stablecoins has just reached a new all-time high (ATH), as the market intelligence platform IntoTheBlock has shared in an X post. The capital stored in the form of stablecoins may find its way into other cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin, so a rise in their market cap might be looked at as a bullish sign for the sector as a whole. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $93,800, down around 1% in the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, IntoTheBlock.com, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

The on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has revealed in a report how this historical bear market confirmation is yet to appear for Bitcoin in the current cycle. Bitcoin Unrealized Loss Hasn’t Spiked For Long-Term Holders Yet In its latest weekly report, Glassnode has discussed about the trend in the Unrealized Loss for the two major Bitcoin cohorts. The “Unrealized Loss” is an on-chain indicator that measures the total amount of loss that the BTC addresses as a whole are carrying. The metric works by going through the transfer history of each coin in circulation to see what price it was last moved at. If this previous trading price is more than the current spot price for any token, then that particular token’s assumed to be holding a net loss. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Cap Sets New Record, But Momentum Fades The indicator takes the difference between the two prices to find the exact measure of this loss. It then adds up this value for all coins part of the circulating supply to find the network total. In the context of the current topic, the usual version of the Unrealized Loss isn’t the one of interest, but rather a new variant known as the Unrealized Loss per Percent Drawdown. As the analytics firm explains, As the market continues to contract, it’s reasonable to expect the absolute size of unrealized losses to grow. To account for this and normalize across drawdowns of varying magnitudes, we introduce a new variant of the metric: Unrealized Loss per Percent Drawdown, which expresses losses held in BTC terms relative to the percentage decline from the all-time high. First, here is a chart that shows the trend in this Bitcoin indicator specifically for the short-term holders: “Short-term holders” (STHs) refer to the Bitcoin investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. BTC is currently trading under the levels that it was at during most of this window, so these holders would majorly be in a state of loss. The Unrealized Loss per Percent Drawdown showcases this trend, as its value has shot up recently. Interestingly, the indicator is already at a high-enough level to be comparable with values seen during the start of previous bear markets. While the STHs are in substantial losses, the same isn’t true for the other side of the market: the “long-term holders” (LTHs). These investors, who have been holding onto their coins since more than 155 days ago, are carrying no unrealized loss at all right now. In the past, the LTHs have generally seen their loss spike up during the transition to a bear market. As the report notes, Historically, substantial expansions in unrealized losses among long-term holders have often marked the confirmation of bear market conditions, albeit with a delay following the market peak. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment Still Close To Extreme Fear—Green Sign For Recovery? So far, this signal hasn’t appeared for Bitcoin. Something to keep in mind, though, is the fact that the top buyers will soon promote into the LTHs. Once that happens, the loss among the group is probable to register an increase. BTC Price Bitcoin has seen a pause in the recovery rally as its price has taken to sideways movement around $85,000. Featured image from Dall-E, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju announced today that Bitcoin’s bull cycle “is over” and warned investors to brace for “6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action.” This development comes after the on-chain analytics veteran had previously urged caution but maintained a measured outlook on the market as recently as two weeks ago. Is The Bitcoin Bull Run Over? In a post shared today via X, Ki stated:“Bitcoin bull cycle is over, expecting 6–12 months of bearish or sideways price action.” Related Reading: Bitcoin To $10 Million? Experts Predict Explosive Growth By 2035 Along with the comment, the CEO highlighted the Bitcoin PnL Index Cyclical Signals—an index that aggregates multiple on-chain metrics, such as MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL, to pinpoint market tops, bottoms, and cyclical turning points in Bitcoin’s price. According to Ki, this indicator has historically offered reliable buy and sell signals. He further explained how an automated alert, previously sent to his subscribers, combined these metrics into a 365-day moving average. Once the trend in this 1-year moving average changes, it often signals a significant market inflection point. As proof, Ki also shared a chart: “This alert applies PCA to on-chain indicators like MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL to compute a 365-day moving average. This signal identifies inflection points where the trend of the 1-year moving average changes.” Ki pointed to drying liquidity and fresh selling pressure by “new whales” who, he said, are unloading Bitcoin at lower prices. Notably, he revealed that CryptoQuant users who subscribed to his alerts received this signal before today’s public announcement. “With fresh liquidity drying up, new whales are selling Bitcoin at lower prices. Cryptoquant users who subscribed to my alerts received this signal a few days ago. I assume they’ve already adjusted their positions, so I’m posting this now.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Whale Shorts $445 Million In BTC—Traders Plot Explosive Liquidation This latest declaration contrasts remarks from just four days ago, on March 14, when Ki struck a more cautious tone, stating: “Bitcoin demand seems stuck, but it’s too early to call it a bear market.” At that time, he shared a chart of the Bitcoin Apparent Demand (30-day sum) indicator, which had turned slightly negative—an early signal that demand might be tapering off. Although Ki pointed out that demand could still rebound (as it has in past sideways phases), he acknowledged the possibility of Bitcoin teetering on the edge of a bear market. The pivot in sentiment is especially notable given Ki’s stance from two weeks ago. In that earlier post, he opined that the “bull cycle is still intact,” crediting strong fundamentals and growing mining capacity: “There’s no significant on-chain activity, and key indicators are neutral, suggesting the bull cycle is still intact. Fundamentals remain strong, with more mining rigs coming online.” However, he also cautioned that the market could turn if sentiment did not improve, particularly in the United States. With today’s announcement, the warning has evidently crystallized. Reflecting on the potential downside scenario, Ki said at the time: “If the cycle ends here, it’s an outcome no one wanted—not old whales, mining companies, TradFi, or even Trump. (FYI, the market doesn’t care about retail.)” At press time, BTC traded at $83,059. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

An analyst has explained how a moving average (MA) that has historically served as the boundary for bear markets is situated at this level. Bitcoin 50-Week MA Is Currently At $75,195 In a new post on X, analyst James Van Straten has shared a couple of important MAs related to Bitcoin. An “MA” is a technical analysis (TA) tool that calculates the average value of any given quantity and as its name implies, it moves in time along with the quantity and updates its value accordingly. MAs can be taken over any window of time, whether that be just 10 minutes or 10 years. The main use of this indicator is for studying long-term trends, as it helps filter out any short-term deviations in the chart. Related Reading: Solana Falls Under Realized Price: Here’s What Happened Last Time Here is the chart shared by the analyst, that shows the trend in the 50-week and 200-day MAs of the Bitcoin price over the past year: As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin price has dropped below the 200-day MA after the recent market downturn, meaning that the asset’s value now is lower than the average for the last 200 days. In TA, the 200-day MA is often looked at as a boundary line between bearish and bullish trends, with a breakdown of the level being considered a bad sign. Thus, it would appear that BTC has lost this important level with its latest plunge. Another level that may divide macro trends, however, is the 50-week MA, which the cryptocurrency still remains above. “Below 50WMA is a bear market,” notes Van Straten. At present, the level is situated around $75,195. If BTC’s current bearish trajectory continues, it’s possible that this line might be put to test. The analyst has pointed out, though, that the coin has dropped under the 200-day MA a few times before and managed to recover before breaking below the 50-week MA. It now remains to be seen whether a similar pattern would play out this time as well or not. In some other news, the downwards trajectory of the market has meant that a leverage flush has occurred over on the derivatives side of the sector, as CryptoQuant author Axel Adler Jr has shared in an X post. In the chart, the analyst has attached the data for the “Open Interest,” an indicator that measures the total amount of derivatives positions related to a given asset that are currently open on all centralized exchanges. Related Reading: Dogecoin To $2 Could Be Next If DOGE Holds This Level: Analyst It would appear that the metric has plunged by $668 million for Bitcoin and $700 million for Ethereum. BTC Price Bitcoin has made some recovery during the last 24 hours as its price has jumped 7%, reaching the $83,000 level. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com

A Bitcoin on-chain level has historically served as the boundary for bear markets. Here’s how far the asset’s price is currently from this line. Bitcoin Is Above Realized Price Of All Major Cohorts Right Now In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed where the Realized Price currently stands for some of the important Bitcoin investor groups. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that keeps track of the cost basis of the average investor on the BTC network. When the spot price is above this metric, it means the holders as a whole are in a state of profit, while it being under the indicator suggests the dominance of loss. Related Reading: Why Litecoin Won’t Break Out—Analytics Firm Reveals the Cause Now, here is the chart for the indicator shared by Young Ju, which shows the trend in its value for four Bitcoin cohorts: As is visible in the above graph, Bitcoin is above the Realized Price of all of these groups right now, so their members would all be sitting on some unrealized gains. Historically, the average cost basis of these cohorts has held some significance for the cryptocurrency. From the chart, it’s apparent that the price has generally followed a bullish trajectory whenever it has been above the Realized Price of the New Whales (colored in orange). The New Whales, also called the Short-Term Holder Whales, refer to the BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days and are holding more than 1,000 BTC. The Realized Price currently stands at $89,300 for this cohort, which means BTC could be at risk of retesting it in the near future if the bearish trajectory continues. A potential dip under the level, though, wouldn’t immediately signal a shift towards a bear market; it would only imply a lack of momentum behind Bitcoin. The level that BTC may have to avoid falling under in order to avoid a bearish regime is the Miner Whales (green). The Miner Whales refer to the wallets of mining companies that hold over 1,000 BTC. The CryptoQuant founder has explained that BTC’s plunges under the mark during the last couple of cycles have all led to bear markets. At present, the Realized Price of the Miner Whales is situated at $58,000. From the current price, Bitcoin would have to go through a drawdown of almost 40% in order to approach a retest of this line. If the level will indeed once again act as a boundary for the bear market in this cycle, then BTC may be considered at a safe distance for now. Related Reading: Glassnode Reveals Where Bitcoin Could Find Support If Current Level Breaks Down While the asset tends to see breaks both above and below the cost basis of three of the cohorts over the course of a cycle, it has never broken under the Realized Price of the fourth group, the Old Whales or Long-Term Holder Whales. These whales, who have been resolutely holding Bitcoin since more than 155 days ago, have their average acquisition level at around $26,000 right now. BTC Price Bitcoin witnessed a plunge under the $94,000 level yesterday, but it would appear that the coin has already found a rebound as its price is now back at $96,200. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

In a new investor note published on January 29, 2025, Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, questioned whether the historical four-year market cycle of Bitcoin could finally be coming to an end. His reasoning is rooted in seismic shifts in US policy toward crypto, highlighted by a recent executive order from President Trump aimed at solidifying the nation’s leadership in digital assets. Could 2026 Buck The Bitcoin Bear Trend? Hougan’s note begins with an explanation of the so-called “four-year cycle,” where Bitcoin has typically seen three years of substantial gains followed by a pullback. This cycle, he explains, mirrors broader boom-bust patterns in traditional markets:“The four-year cycle in crypto is driven by the same forces that drive broader cycles of growth and recession in the general economy,” he wrote. Related Reading: Bitcoin Preparing For A February Rally? Analyst Says New High Is Two Weeks Away These expansions, fueled by technological breakthroughs or increased investor interest, often lead to over-leverage, occasionally resulting in fraud or industry-wide strain. Eventually, something “breaks” and triggers a market correction—such as the 2014 Mt. Gox collapse or the 2018 SEC crackdown on ICOs. Hougan describes the current crypto upswing as the “Mainstream Cycle,” emerging out of 2022’s “massive deleveraging” caused by failures like FTX, Three Arrows Capital, and others. According to him, the latest bull phase took off in March 2023, when Grayscale convincingly “won the opening argument” in its legal challenge against the SEC over a spot Bitcoin ETF. “Bitcoin was trading at $22,218 when Grayscale mounted its argument. It’s trading at $102,674 today. The mainstream era has arrived.” Once a spot Bitcoin ETF was approved and launched in January 2024, investor inflows surged, further cementing Bitcoin’s acceptance among both retail and institutional players. The most striking component of Hougan’s analysis is his examination of last week’s executive order issued by President Trump. The order not only deemed the development of the US digital asset ecosystem a “national priority,” but it also set in motion a clearer regulatory framework for crypto. Related Reading: DeepSeek Predicts Bitcoin Bull Run Peak At $500,000 – Here’s When “Last week, President Trump issued an executive order that was so overwhelmingly bullish for the space that it’s making me wonder,” Hougan wrote, noting how the document outlines plans for a potential “national crypto stockpile” and encourages banks and financial institutions to accelerate their adoption of digital assets. Combined with a now more welcoming stance from the SEC, Hougan believes these measures could unleash trillions in new investment over the coming years, far surpassing the hundreds of billions that an ETF-driven market was already expected to generate. Hougan’s analysis acknowledges that Bitcoin has historically followed its pattern of eventual pullbacks after surging bull runs. But with Wall Street behemoths and major banks preparing to integrate crypto at every level, there’s a growing possibility that the market may not face the traditional plunge in 2026: “If it’s not until next year that we feel those impacts, will we really have a new ‘crypto winter’ in 2026?” he posited. “If BlackRock CEO Larry Fink is calling for $700k Bitcoin, are we really going to see a 70% pullback?” While he concedes that leverage continues to build in the system—citing an uptick in Bitcoin-backed lending programs, derivatives, and levered exchange-traded products—he also highlights an increasingly diverse pool of crypto investors. This diversity, he argues, could dampen severe drawdowns. “My guess is that we haven’t fully overcome the four-year cycle. Leverage will build up as the bull market builds. Excess will appear. Bad actors will emerge. And at some point, there could be a sharp pullback when the market gets over its skis,” Hougan argued. However, Hougan expects that any future market correction will be “shorter and shallower” than previous cycles. With the industry’s infrastructure now significantly more robust and mainstream participants treating crypto as a legitimate asset class, a dramatic bear market akin to those of 2014 or 2018 may be less likely. “As for now, it’s full steam ahead,” he concluded. “The crypto train is leaving the station.” At press time, BTC traded at $105,275. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Data shows three popular Bitcoin momentum indicators recently formed a death cross pattern. Here’s what usually follows this formation. Bitcoin Momentum Indicators Have Seen Bearish Crossovers Recently In a new CryptoQuant Quicktake post, an analyst has discussed the latest trend in three momentum indicators related to Bitcoin. The momentum indicators here refer to combinations of some important moving averages (MAs) related to the cryptocurrency. The first is the “Active Address Momentum,” which involves the 30-day and 365-day MAs of the daily unique number of BTC Active Addresses. An address is said to be “active” when it makes some transaction on the network, whether as a receiver or sender. Related Reading: $170 Million In Crypto Longs Bite The Dust As Bitcoin Plunges Under $57,000 The number of Active Addresses may be the same as the number of users visiting the network, so this metric tells us how the blockchain activity is looking right now. Here is the chart shared by the quant that shows the trend in the 30-day and 365-day MAs of the Active Addresses over the last few years. As displayed in the above graph, the monthly average of the Active Addresses saw a cross under the yearly average shortly after the asset’s rally to the new all-time high (ATH) and has since remained under it. This crossover implies activity on the BTC blockchain has been on the decline. Generally, user interest keeps rallies fueled, so an increase in Active Addresses is needed to keep any more sustainable. As investors are starting to pay less attention to the cryptocurrency, conditions may not be right for a bull run anymore. The chart shows that this kind of crossover also occurred at the end of the bull run in the first half of 2021, although the second-half rally did occur regardless. The second momentum indicator is the famous Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio, which tells us whether the investors are in profit or loss. As the chart shows, the MVRV Ratio has also seen its monthly cross below its yearly, suggesting investor profits have been shrinking. This pattern has historically served as a death cross, with BTC shifting towards a bearish phase following it. The same cross also appeared just before the 2022 bear market kicked off. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Drop To $40,600 If This Happens, Crypto Analyst Says Finally, there is also the bearish crossover between the 50-day and 200-day MAs of the Bitcoin price itself. Given all these negative patterns across the different Bitcoin indicators, the cryptocurrency may be heading towards at least a short-term bearish period. BTC Price Bitcoin has struggled recently as its price has dipped towards the $56,500 level. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has gone through a major crash recently, but has the asset yet breached the historical bear market boundary? Here’s what on-chain data says. Bitcoin Is Currently Under Realized Price Of New Whales In a new post on X, CryptoQuant founder and CEO Ki Young Ju has discussed what the Realized Price of different key groups in the Bitcoin market is looking like right now. Related Reading: Bitcoin MVRV Lowest Since FTX Crash, Signal To Buy The “Realized Price” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the average cost basis or acquisition price that the investors of a given group currently share. When the asset’s spot price is above this metric, it means the cohort as a whole can be considered to be in a state of profit. On the other hand, BTC’s value under the indicator suggests the average group member is holding a net loss. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Realized Price for some major cohorts on the Bitcoin network: The first Bitcoin cohort listed here is the “New Whales,” which include the large investors (more than 1,000 BTC in holdings) who bought their coins within the past 155 days. The likes of the spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and other custody wallets would be included in this category. This group currently has a Realized Price of $65,000, meaning that these whales would be in notable losses after the latest cryptocurrency crash. The next group, the Binance Traders, has a cost basis of $55,000, around where the asset’s spot price is trading. Thus, these investors would currently be just breaking even on their investments. Bitcoin still holds a distance above the Realized Price of the third group, the Miner Whales, at $45,000. As the CryptoQuant founder has pointed out, BTC dipping below this level has historically confirmed a bear market for the coin. From the chart, it’s visible that the asset last saw major breaches of the level back in November 2018 and May 2022. It also saw a temporary break during the COVID crash in March 2020. Related Reading: Crypto Liquidations Cross $1 Billion As Bitcoin Crashes To $51,000 As the latest crash has been unable to take Bitcoin below this cost basis of the mining companies, it’s possible that a transition towards a bear market hasn’t happened yet. The last cohort in the chart is the Long-Term Holder Whales, which includes the whales that have been holding for more than 155 days. The Realized Price of this group has never been breached in the coin’s entire history and currently trades around $22,000. BTC Price Bitcoin has recovered over the past day as its price has gone up 7% to reclaim the $55,000 mark. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com