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As Bitcoin (BTC) attempts to hold the $74,000-$75,000 area, an analyst suggested that the flagship crypto could see another 10% rally toward a key area, but warned that this level could be the ceiling. Related Reading: BNB Chain’s RWA Value Tops $3.5 Billion As Global Ecosystem Grows Bitcoin Double Bottom Breakout Targets Key Level In a Wednesday analysis, crypto analyst Rekt Capital shared an outlook for Bitcoin’s potential rally, as it holds the $73,000-$74,000 area as support for the first time in a month. The analyst highlighted that BTC’s price continues to move between its 2021 and 2024 all-time highs (ATHs), which have been a major resistance area since the early February correction. After the recent market rally, the flagship crypto retested the 2021 ATH as a new support level on the weekly timeframe, but ultimately rejected from the 2024 ATH during last week’s close. According to the analyst, if Bitcoin can weekly close above the 2024 ATH, located around $74,000, then the price could move into the high $70,000. “Until that confirmation, however, price will continue to be sandwiched between 2021 and 2024 old All Time Highs,” he added. Rekt Capital also noted that BTC has formed a double bottom pattern in the weekly timeframe, and is “now pressing beyond the resistance” of the formation. As he explained, the cryptocurrency would need a weekly close and a post-breakout retest of the top of the double bottom, around $72,810, to confirm a breakout. If it confirms a breakout from this formation, the price could rally toward the $81,000-$82,500 area in a Measured Move. Nonetheless, the analyst warned that, given the phase of the market cycle we are currently in, the price will likely develop a macro market structure that “will appear sufficiently bullish only to ultimately fail over time.” “The failure could occur by virtue of rejecting from the Double Bottom resistance, by failed post-breakout retest to register a fake-breakout, or by falling short of a Measured Move once the breakout is confirmed.” BTC Resembles 2014 Breakdown Rekt Capital also analyzed BTC’s historical behavior to assess the ongoing rally’s potential failure. The analyst noted that whenever Bitcoin has broken down from its macro triangle formation, the price usually retraces until it forms a bear market bottom. However, the way the cryptocurrency does that has differed from cycle to cycle, he detailed. In 2018 and 2022, the breakdown led to a very quick bearish acceleration toward the bear market bottom accumulation period. On the contrary, Bitcoin consolidated below the triangle base in 2014, retested it, and saw another leg down. This time, BTC’s performance resembles its 2014 breakdown, as it has been consolidating behind the triangle base after losing it in January. To the analyst, if the cryptocurrency continues to mirror its 2014 performance, the price could consolidate a bit longer, potentially rally to the base at $82,500, before rejecting. “Furthermore, Bitcoin tends to build major consolidation periods on breakdowns from Macro Triangles. In 2018 and 2022, these major consolidation periods developed at Bear Market bottoms,” Rekt Capital explained. Related Reading: Bitmine’s Ethereum Holdings Hits 4% Supply Milestone After 71,524 ETH Buy “Whereas in 2014, Bitcoin built two such periods: just beneath the Macro Triangle it broke down from, and then later at its respective Bear Market Bottom,” he continued. The analyst concluded that if history repeats, BTC’s current consolidation could precede additional downside, and another major consolidation period could develop during the bear market bottom. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is still far from triggering the three signals that have historically appeared at the end of bear markets, according to analyst Willy Woo. Bitcoin Is Still Trading Far Below The Cost Basis Of Recent Investors In a new post on X, analyst Willy Woo has listed the three things that tend to happen at the end of bear markets. The first signal is the price breaking the cost basis of the short-term holders (STHs). The STHs refer to the investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days. As such, the cost basis of this group represents the break-even level of the recent buyers of the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sharks & Whales Capitulate: Realized Loss Exceeds $200M As the below chart shared by Woo shows, Bitcoin fell under the STH cost basis during past bear markets and maintained there, suggesting that the new entrants remained underwater. As is visible in the graph, Bitcoin also slipped under the STH cost basis alongside the bearish shift in Q4 2025 and since then, it has stayed below this level, with the gap widening over time. Historically, the cryptocurrency’s price has broken back above the STH cost basis at the end of bear markets (as highlighted with circles in the chart). Another thing that has tended to follow this phase shift is fresh buying from investors. This second signal gives rise to the third one: a reversal of trend in the average acquisition level of the STHs. From the chart, it’s apparent that the STH cost basis shows a downtrend during bear markets. This is a natural result of coins changing hands at the lower bear market levels, pushing the average break-even level lower. As a transition away from a major bearish phase occurs, investors start buying at higher prices, causing the STH cost basis to see an upward reversal. Related Reading: Ethereum Drops Nearly 5% As Familiar Leverage Setup Plays Out Under the post, a user asked asked Woo to elaborate. To which, the analyst responded with: Given price is not even close to the cost basis of recent investors, and that cost basis is dropping each day… there’s no point in buying until a cross becomes imminent. Bear markets are about patience. At the moment, the Bitcoin STH cost basis is floating around $81,000, implying that the recent buyers are holding a net unrealized loss of more than 14%. It now remains to be seen how long it will be before the cryptocurrency will be able to find a break back above the level. BTC Price Bitcoin ended last week under the $67,000 level, but the digital asset has kicked back up to start Monday, with its price recovering to $69,500. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) holds the crucial $65,000 to $66,000 area, Ark Invest CEO and CIO Cathie Wood has discussed the flagship crypto’s current downturn, affirming that the era of severe pullbacks is over. Related Reading: $285M Bug Or Human Error? Solana-Based Drift Protocol Suffers Largest Exploit Of 2026 50% Bitcoin Correction Could Be A ‘Real Victory’ In a recent interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box, Ark Invest CEO Cathie Wood affirmed that Bitcoin has matured over the last few years, citing broader adoption and growing institutional demand for the flagship crypto. Wood said that Bitcoin is a “proven technology” and a “proven monetary system,” adding that the industry is “seeing now is the institutionalization of this new asset class that has had a very low correlation with other asset classes.” Therefore, “the 85%, 95% collapses associated with a very new technology, that’s done.” To the CEO, the ongoing market correction, which has reduced Bitcoin’s value by nearly half from its October peak, could be viewed as a “real victory” rather than a sign of weakness for the Bitcoin community, as it would mark a significant decline from its historical crashes during previous bear markets. Last year, Wood trimmed her Bitcoin prediction for 2030 from $1.5 million to $1.2 million. However, she has reiterated her view that Bitcoin will serve as a store of value and global settlement system. She previously asserted that growing institutional adoption will be a powerful driver for long-term value for the flagship crypto, adding that it has only begun. “Institutions really have just dipped their toes into this space. We have just started, so we have a long way to go,” she stated. Analysts Say BTC Bottom Is Much Lower Despite Wood’s outlook, other market analysts have forecasted much lower targets for BTC’s bottom. Recently, Bloomberg senior strategist Mike McGlone suggested that a “bursting crypto bubble” scenario is looming for the leading cryptocurrency. As reported by NewsBTC, McGlone affirmed that Bitcoin could drop as low as $10,000 this year, noting that this level was a common trading price before 2020-2021 and “the first-born crypto’s most traded price since 2017.” Market watcher Crypto Jelle recently pointed out that the cryptocurrency’s bear market lows have historically formed below the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement levels, which could place BTC’s bottom below the $57,000 area. Meanwhile, analyst Ali Martinez said that BTC’s final correction before the next bull run could send the price 40%-50% down toward the $30,000-$40,000 area, based on its historical performance. The analyst explained that the crossover between BTC’s 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) has historically signaled the bottom of every major cycle over the past twelve years. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Break Four-Month Negative Streak With $1.32B Inflows While ETH, XRP Funds Bleed As he detailed, the crossover has consistently marked the start of the final leg down before the next bull market, with the price declining another 50% when the 50- and 200-SMAs crossed in previous cycles. Notably, Bitcoin has seen a 52% correction from its October 2025 peak, and the SMAs crossed over on February 27, which could suggest that another major correction is due, if history repeats. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

As Bitcoin (BTC) retests a crucial level after breaking down of a bearish pattern, an analyst has suggested that the flagship crypto’s final correction before the next bull market could start in the coming days. Related Reading: Ethereum Could Hit $40,000 And Beat Bitcoin, Standard Chartered Says Start Of ‘Final Washout’ Is Days Away In a Monday analysis, market observer Ali Martinez affirmed that Bitcoin’s final leg down before the next bull run could be around the corner based on the flagship crypto’s past cycle’s behavior. The analyst explained that historically, the crossover between BTC’s 50 and 200 Simple Moving Averages (SMAs) has marked the “‘absolute bottom’ of every major cycle since 2014.” Over the past 12 years, whenever these two lines crossed on the three-day chart, it has consistently signaled the start of the “final washout” before the next bull market begins. In 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin had already declined by 50%-72% from its cycle peaks when the 50- and 200-SMAs crossed. 23-33 days after the crossover, the cryptocurrency continued its correction, retracing another 45%-52% before bottoming. In 2022, “another lower low formed 156 days later, completing the bear structure and opening the door for the next bull market.” Now, Bitcoin has already seen a 52% correction from its October 2025 peak, while the SMAs crossed over on February 27. “As of today, we are exactly 30 days into this signal,” the analyst detailed, adding that “If history ‘rhymes,’ we are likely entering the Final Accumulation Window of this cycle within the next 3 to 6 days.” Martinez noted that while the final leg down could be intimidating, history has shown that the crossover is the “Golden Opportunity” for long-term investors. Based on its 40%-50% “resets,” the analyst suggested two main accumulation zones: the $40,000 and $30,000 levels. Structurally, this setup has historically aligned with the last major downside move before a generational macro bottom forms. (…) The countdown to the next vertical move has begun. Bitcoin Bear Flag Breakdown Confirmed? After closing the week around the $66,000 mark, Bitcoin has surged to the $67,000-$68,000 area to retest a crucial level from below. The flagship crypto has been trading between $62,000-$74,000 for nearly two months, developing a bearish formation during this period. Notably, BTC has formed a bearish flag pattern on the daily timeframe, retesting the formation’s lower and upper boundaries multiple times since early February. Following last week’s correction, the cryptocurrency retraced over 10% from its recent highs to a four-week low of $65,000 on Sunday. Related Reading: The Last Time Bitcoin Sentiment Was This Bad Was 2022, But There Was A Silver Lining Amid this performance, Bitcoin lost the lower boundary of its bear flag formation, risking a second leg down toward lower levels. Analyst Crypto Jelle noted that the cryptocurrency is currently retesting the formation from below after today’s bounce, which could confirm that the pattern’s support has turned into resistance if BTC price is rejected. In addition, the market watcher pointed out that the cryptocurrency’s bear market lows have historically formed below the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement levels, which could place BTC’s bottom below the $57,000 area. “Is this time different? Doubt it,” Jelle concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

The latest Bitcoin (BTC) price drop has raised concerns about the cryptocurrency’s upcoming performance, with some analysts warning that BTC’s next key closes could signal the start of another major correction. Related Reading: Dogecoin Bottom Not In? Analyst Warns DOGE’s Macro Downtrend Won’t Be Over Soon Bitcoin Risks Another Major Crash On Friday, Bitcoin plunged over 7% intraday to a three-week low of $65,700, raising concerns about the flagship crypto’s short- to mid-term performance. The cryptocurrency has been trading between the $65,000-$72,000 levels since the early February crash. After its latest drop, analyst Altcoin Sherpa noted that holding the current levels is crucial, as losing this boundary could quickly send BTC’s price 6%-10% down to the next support area, around $60,000-$62,000. Several market observers also warned that the cryptocurrency is currently breaking down a crucial bearish formation, which could also trigger a massive crash to newer lows if the price doesn’t bounce soon. Notably, Bitcoin has been forming a bear flag pattern on the daily timeframe for nearly two months, retesting the formation’s lower boundary on multiple occasions. However, BTC now risks losing this level as support, as it shows multiple concerning signs. Ted Pillows asserted on X that Bitcoin is not only dropping in price but also losing momentum as it has lost its RSI uptrend. “A major sign of weakness,” he added. The analyst also emphasized that BTC’s breakdown “is only a matter of when, not if,” cautioning that the flagship cryptocurrency has already broken down of a similar two-month bear flag pattern at the start of the year. Meanwhile, Ali Martinez suggested that BTC could drop another 30%-45% based on its historical performance over the past decade. As he explained, Bitcoin has kicked off new bull runs after dropping below its long-term holder realized price, and it’s −0.2 standard deviation band, located at the $48,387 and $36,657 levels, respectively. “I’ll be watching these zones for dip-buying opportunities ahead of the next bull cycle,” he stated. All Eyes On BTC’s Weekly Close Analyst Rekt Capital highlighted another concerning sign for Bitcoin, noting that BTC has once again dropped below the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). Amid this drop, the cryptocurrency is treating this level as resistance once more, putting the focus on the upcoming weekly close. The analyst previously explained that “If the 200-week EMA is lost as support this week and price Weekly Closes below it again, Bitcoin could actually turn the EMA into new resistance.” Last week, the largest crypto by market capitalization technically closed below the 200W EMA after attempting to “post-breakout retest” it as support, but failing to end the week above the $68,000 area. “That means that price technically kickstarted a breakdown from the EMA,” and a weekly close below this level would confirm it. Related Reading: Bitwise CIO Projects Circle To Hit $75B Valuation By 2030 Despite Selloff, Clarity Act Concerns “Given this latest Weekly Close, there is therefore scope for another dip into the 200-week EMA for another retest to see if BTC can solidify a reclaim into support,” he detailed, “But the overall suspicion has become confirmed: The 200-week EMA is acting as both an unreliable resistance and an unreliable support, never truly confirming a clear role.” The analyst concluded that the indecisiveness could lead to further retests of this area “before ultimately breaking down into additional Macro Downside over time.” As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $65,600, a 6% decline in the weekly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant has pointed out how Bitcoin has tended to revisit or stay below the Realized Price in past bear markets. Currently, this level is located at $54,000. Bitcoin Hasn’t Gone Below Realized Price This Cycle In a new post on X, CryptoQuant has talked about what the Realized Price is telling us about Bitcoin right now. The “Realized Price” here refers to an on-chain indicator that keeps track of the cost basis or acquisition level of the average investor on the BTC network. When the spot price of the asset is trading above this metric, it means the addresses as a whole are in a state of net unrealized profit. On the other hand, BTC’s value being below the indicator suggests an underwater status for the overall network. Related Reading: Bittensor (TAO) Rallies 35%, But Social Sentiment Stays Mixed Now, here is the chart shared by CryptoQuant that shows the trend in the Bitcoin Realized Price over the history of the cryptocurrency: As displayed in the above graph, Bitcoin broke through the Realized Price at the end of the 2022 bear market and since then, the asset has maintained above this line. This suggests that investors have enjoyed net profits in this period. Recently, the cryptocurrency has faced some notable bearish momentum, but so far, it has managed to stay some distance above the Realized Price. Currently, the metric is situated at $54,000. From the chart, it’s visible that past bear markets generally saw Bitcoin spend time at or below this level. When the majority of the investors are in loss, selling pressure with the motive of profit-taking starts running out, so it may be why the asset historically found bottoms below the metric. While the holders as a whole are still in the green, a significant segment of the userbase is already underwater at the current price levels. As the below chart shows, the Realized Price of the short-term holders has been floating some distance above the spot price recently. The short-term holders refer to BTC investors who purchased their coins within the past 155 days, so their Realized Price tracks the average buying price of coins that moved over the last five months. With the spot price currently being under this level, it would appear that this group is in a state of loss. “Recent buyers are underwater, creating sell pressure on every bounce,” noted the analytics firm. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales Go Silent: Large Transactions Plummet Strategy, the largest Bitcoin treasury company in the world, has also seen the asset drop under its cost basis with the recent bearish action. At present, the firm’s Realized Price is sitting around $75,600. “Right where the recent rally got rejected, the market is reacting to this level,” said CryptoQuant. BTC Price Bitcoin has continued to consolidate sideways recently as its price is trading around $68,400 right now. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Market expert Ali Martinez recently revealed on X (formerly Twitter) what he describes as “the secret to every major Bitcoin bull run since 2011,” saying October could offer one of the best entry points ahead of the next bull market.  Martinez shared an on‑chain fractal breakdown that points to a potential “final discount” in October of this year, where investors might find optimal buying opportunities before the next sustained uptrend. Bitcoin Could Bottom At $41,000-$45,000 In his social media post, Martinez suggests that Bitcoin is still operating within a four‑year rhythm that breaks down into a sequence of accumulation, markup, distribution, and a bear phase.  Within that larger cycle, he highlights two shorter subcycles and asserts the market is now moving into what he describes as the “final discount” period. Using that framework, Martinez puts a likely “golden entry” window between October 6 and October 16, 2026. Related Reading: Ethereum Bottom Signal? Analyst Maps Out Road To $10,000 Beyond timing, Martinez offered specific price bands for ideal buying opportunities. He identified entry points in the $41,500 to $45,000 range, which would represent declines of roughly 41% and 36%, respectively, from current trading levels of around $70,800. October Launchpad  Those potential retracements in the coming months imply that Bitcoin may still have substantial downside before the October window, according to his reading of past cycles. Related Reading: Dogecoin Could 200% Rally If This Floor Holds, Analyst Says However, Martinez framed the scenario as an actionable pattern rather than mere speculation: if the fractal holds, the October interval could serve as the launchpad that begins a fresh four‑year cycle and sets the stage for the next vertical price move.   The expert concluded his Monday social media post by saying the “countdown to the next Bitcoin vertical move has begun.” Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

On-chain analytics firm Santiment has highlighted how the average Bitcoin returns of the buyers from the past year are looking similar to late 2022. 365-Day Bitcoin MVRV Ratio Has Plunged Recently In a new post on X, Santiment has talked about the latest trend in the Bitcoin Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Ratio. This on-chain indicator measures the ratio between the market cap of the asset and its Realized Cap. The Realized Cap here refers to a capitalization model that calculates the total value of the cryptocurrency by assuming that the ‘real’ value of each token in circulation is equal to the price at which it was last transacted on the blockchain. In short, this metric represents the sum of the capital stored in the asset by all investors. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Score Surges To 30, Exits ‘Extra Bearish’ Zone Since the market cap is the amount held by investors in the present, its comparison with the Realized Cap in the MVRV Ratio tells us about the profit-loss status of the overall network. When the value of the metric is greater than 1, it means the investors are in a state of net unrealized loss. On the other hand, it being under the mark suggests the dominance of losses. In the context of the current topic, the MVRV Ratio of the entire market isn’t of interest, but rather that of two specific investor cohorts: 30-day and 365-day buyers. The MVRV Ratios of these groups naturally tell us about the average returns for coins purchased over the past month and past year, respectively. Now, here is the chart shared by Santiment that shows the trend in the 30-day and 365-day MVRV Ratios for Bitcoin over the last few years: As displayed in the above graph, the 30-day Bitcoin MVRV Ratio is currently sitting at the +2.8% mark, suggesting short-term buyers are in a state of slight profit. This could raise the chances of a profit-taking selloff occurring, but perhaps not by much as these returns aren’t significant enough to fall inside what the analytics firm defines as the “Danger Zone.” The picture is a bit different when it comes to the profitability of the 1-year investors. From the chart, it’s visible that the MVRV Ratio has plunged to the -26.6% mark for this group, which is well past the boundary for the “Opportunity Zone.” Interestingly, the last time that the indicator fell to such a low level was at the end of the 2022 Bitcoin bear market. “When the 365-day MVRV was severely negative following the FTX collapse, $BTC proceeded to rise +67% in the following 3 months,” noted Santiment. Related Reading: XRP Bollinger Bands Are Squeezing—Volatility Incoming? That said, while the current value is similar to back then, the structure itself more resembles that of mid-2022, since the metric has only recently plummeted to these levels, while in late 2022, it was on the way back up. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $70,500, down nearly 1% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

CryptoQuant’s Bitcoin Bull Score Index has jumped to a value of 30, indicating bearish conditions persist for the asset, but are no longer as extreme. Bitcoin Bull Score Index Has Seen A Small Uptick In a new post on X, CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno has talked about the latest trend in the Bull Score Index for Bitcoin. This indicator basically tells us about the phase of the market that the cryptocurrency is currently in. The metric determines this by referring to the data of ten indicators covering different aspects of the network. Some of the major on-chain indicators part of the index include the MVRZ Z-Score, Realized Price, and CryptoQuant P&L Index. Related Reading: XRP Bollinger Bands Are Squeezing—Volatility Incoming? The Bull Score Index’s value corresponds to the number of these metrics that are currently giving a bullish signal for BTC. For example, a value of 60 implies six indicators are giving the green light. Now, here is the chart shared by Moreno that shows how the Bitcoin Bull Score Index has fluctuated over the last few months: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Bull Score Index dropped to a value of zero earlier, implying that all ten indicators turned bearish on the digital asset. The red signals on the metrics came after the asset’s price experienced a significant drawdown. Recently, the Bull Score Index has observed some recovery, implying improvements in on-chain indicators. The surge hasn’t been too massive, however, taking the metric to a value of 30, corresponding to just three indicators giving bullish signals. “Bull flags that turned on were: exchange flows, stablecoin liquidity growth, and price momentum,” explained the analyst. Nonetheless, the jump has been enough to lift the Bull Score Index out of the “extra bearish” zone, corresponding to values of 20 and below. The normal bearish zone has its cutoff at 40, so at least two more indicators will have to turn green before the indicator can escape it as well. Whether the current Bull Score Index recovery will actually lead to it escaping the bearish territory may come down to whether the market recovery is part of a wider shift. The CryptoQuant head doesn’t think it’s the case, noting, “We are still in a bear market, but in a relief rally.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Short Bets Surge—Will Bears Get Squeezed? In some other news, Bitcoin sellers have taken to loss-taking on the net recently, as on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has pointed out in an X post. From the chart, it’s visible that the 90-day moving average (MA) of the Bitcoin Realized Profit/Loss Ratio is now under the 1 mark, meaning losses are outpacing profits. “Historically, breaks below the neutral level (~1) have persisted for 6+ months before reclaiming it,” said Glassnode. BTC Price Bitcoin has already recovered back above the $70,000 level from its dip under $66,000 during the weekend. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin (BTC) is retesting resistance levels as its price recovers the $71,000 mark. However, an analyst has warned that the bear market is expected to continue and that the latest bounce could be short-lived. Related Reading: Dogecoin Risks More Pain As Price Retests Critical Support – Analyst Warns Of 37% Breakdown Bitcoin Eyes Reclaim Of Former All-Time High Resistance On Tuesday, Bitcoin surged 7.5% from the Sunday lows toward the $71,000 area, retesting this key level for the second time in a week before momentarily retracing toward the $69,000 level. The cryptocurrency has been trading between the $63,000-$71,000 price range over the past month, briefly surging above the upper boundary during last week’s market bounce. However, BTC’s price has failed to hold its multiple breakout attempts amid the market volatility. In a Monday analysis, market watcher Rekt Capital observed that Bitcoin is interacting with two key levels that form “an important overhead resistance”: the 2021 and 2024 all-time highs (ATHs) at $69,000 and $71,300, respectively. As the analyst explained, these levels turned into resistance in the monthly timeframe after the flagship cryptocurrency closed February at $66,970. Since then, BTC has repeatedly tested these key levels from below in the daily timeframe but has failed to reclaim them. Instead, it has produced upside wicks above $69,000 and $71,300, signaling that the former ATHs are acting as rejection levels in shorter timeframes and could become key resistance if it monthly closes below them. “For Bitcoin to begin shifting this structure, price would need to Monthly Close above $69,000 by the end of March to position itself for a reclaim of the 2021 All Time High as support,” the analyst asserted. “Similarly, the 2024 All Time High at $71,300 would likely require multiple Monthly Closes above the level in order to properly establish a reclaim process,” he added. BTC Bounce To Be Short-Lived? While the former ATHs risk turning into resistance, Rekt Capital noted that Bitcoin is currently finding crucial support at the 50-month Moving Average (MA), around the $64,000-$65,000 area. Historically, the flagship crypto has initially reacted from this level in bear markets, but eventually loses it as support. The recent bounce from the 50-month MA is enabling BTC to test the 2021 and 2024 ATHs as resistance “for the time being.” However, once the breakdown occurs, the level usually becomes a new resistance before further downside continuation follows. Now, “Bitcoin is effectively sandwiched between two key reactive zones,” he affirmed, which could lead to short-term relief before the mid-term downside continues. Related Reading: Hyperliquid Traders Rise in Arms as Bitcoin Hits 7-Day Low And Oil Soars The analyst also observed that BTC appears to be only halfway through the bear market, leaving the door open for further downside. In an X post, he noted that BTC’s shortest bear market lasted around 365 days, while it is currently just over 150 days into the current one. Other analysts have suggested that the cryptocurrency could follow the 2022 cycle playbook. At the time, the price significantly retraced from the cycle peak, consolidated for months, and then had a final bull trap before its second major correction wave toward the market bottom. As of this writing, Bitcoin trades at $71,307, a 3% increase in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

As the crypto markets rebounded on Wednesday, Bitcoin (BTC) bounced back from the recent selloff triggered by the escalating Middle East conflict, targeting a surge toward high levels. While some market observers see this as a sign of strength and potential bottoming, others warn that the rally could be short-lived. Related Reading: Bitcoin Leads Crypto Funds’ $1 Billion Rebound To End 5-Week Negative Streak Bitcoin Shows Strength Despite Growing Geopolitical Fears On Wednesday, Bitcoin surged 8.3% to trade above the $72,000 barrier for the first time in a month. The cryptocurrency has been trading between the $63,000-$73,000 price range since early February, but it has failed to break past the $70,000 mark throughout this period. Notably, the escalation of the US-Israel war with Iran has introduced significant volatility to risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. This resulted in sharp declines on Saturday, with BTC dropping to $63,000. However, the flagship crypto’s price quickly stabilized around the mid-zone of its local range, followed by a partial recovery above the $68,000 area at the start of the week. Now, Bitcoin has surged 15.87% from its recent lows, reaching a one-month high of $73,479 on Wednesday morning despite increasing geopolitical tensions. In a recent Bits + Bips podcast episode, Chris Perkins, Managing Partner and President of CoinFund, highlighted that BTC’s signs of strength and resilience, alongside signs of liquidity entering the market, are a “good setup” for a potential bottoming. It’s worth noting that US spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) have seen a remarkable performance over the past two days, with $683.34 million in inflows since Monday, suggesting increasing demand for the investment products. Alex Kuptsikevich, chief market analyst at FxPro, told Bloomberg, “This is a victory for cryptocurrencies, given the impressive selloff those financial markets and gold experienced the day before,” adding that “perhaps some traders are looking at crypto as a safe haven.” Too Early To Call BTC’s Bottom Despite the rebound, Kuptsikevich also warned that the situation remains “too fragile” to declare the market bottom. He explained that “Bitcoin is vulnerable due to the increased volatility of stock indexes, which is forcing institutional investors to reduce their leverage.” Meanwhile, market observer Ted Pillows suggested that BTC’s rally could be short-lived, drawing a comparison between the flagship crypto’s current performance and its early 2022 price action when the Russia-Ukraine war started. As the analyst noted, Bitcoin, which had already begun correcting from its 2021 all-time high, saw initial volatility when the conflict erupted, but pumped almost 40% in the following month before dumping another 67%. BTC targets a potential 45% correction toward the $40,000 area. Source: Ted Pillows on X This time, BTC is beginning to display a similar performance, which could lead to a 20%-25% rally toward the $78,000-$80,000 zone, according to the market watcher. However, this rebound could be followed by a strong rejection at this key horizontal area. Related Reading: Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Buy $14 Billion In BTC As Retail Headed For The Exit If history repeats, the next phase of the cryptocurrency’s downtrend could begin soon, Ted Pillows cautioned, potentially sending the price 45% below the rally’s potential peak prices. Analyst Ali Martinez observed that Bitcoin has consistently bottomed between the 1.0 and 0.8 MVRV Pricing Bands over the past decade. According to the chart, this would place BTC’s potential bottom between the $43,647-$54,559 levels. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $73,255, a 10% increase in the weekly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin has remained in a consolidation phase since its early February breakdown below the $70,000 threshold, oscillating around the mid-$60K region without establishing a clear directional bias. The loss of $70K marked a structural shift in short-term momentum, transitioning the market from trend continuation to range-bound stabilization. While volatility has moderated, underlying stress signals suggest that the correction may not be fully resolved. Related Reading: The Distribution Trap: Why Bitcoin’s Reserve Growth Proves Sellers Still Hold The Tape According to a recent report by CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost, Short-Term Holders (STH) are still carrying substantial unrealized losses. With Bitcoin trading near $66,000, this cohort’s average unrealized loss stands at approximately 26.3%. Historically, periods in which STH losses exceed 25% tend to coincide with advanced phases of bear markets rather than early corrective pullbacks. In previous cycles, these losses have occasionally expanded toward 40% during capitulation events before a durable bottom formed. The current reading, therefore, places the market in a zone of elevated psychological pressure. Short-term participants, who are typically more reactive to price fluctuations, remain underwater, increasing the probability of volatility spikes if key levels fail. Short-Term Holder Losses Signal Late-Stage Stress and Strategic Accumulation Zones The current configuration of Short-Term Holder positioning reflects a classic late-correction dynamic. When STH cohorts begin to carry meaningful unrealized losses — particularly above the 25% threshold — market psychology shifts from optimism to stress. Historically, these zones have coincided with attractive long-term accumulation windows, not because downside risk disappears, but because forced selling pressure gradually exhausts itself. Long-term investors deploying systematic DCA strategies have often benefited from entering during these compressed conditions. The relationship between STH profitability and trend development is equally instructive. Sustained bullish expansions typically begin once the average unrealized profit of STH reclaims positive territory. That shift signals renewed structural demand strong enough to lift recent buyers back into profit. However, excessive profitability can also destabilize trends. In this cycle, readings near 20% average profit have coincided with overheated conditions and subsequent pullbacks, as profit-taking accelerates. At present, with STH deeply underwater, the broader structure remains bearish from a cyclical standpoint. Momentum has not yet transitioned into expansion. Yet paradoxically, these stress phases often represent asymmetric positioning opportunities. The key distinction lies in timeframe: tactically fragile in the short term, but strategically constructive for disciplined capital deployment. Related Reading: Ethereum’s Market Order Imbalance Hits Record Negatives: $1,850 Is Now The Line In The Sand Bitcoin Compresses Below Moving Averages as $62K–$69K Range Tightens On the 4-hour timeframe, Bitcoin remains locked in a tight consolidation band around the $66,000 level after the sharp early-February breakdown. The structure is clearly corrective: price is trading below the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages, all of which are sloping downward. This alignment confirms short-term bearish momentum, even as volatility compresses. Repeated attempts to reclaim the 100-period moving average (green) have failed, reinforcing it as dynamic resistance near the $68,000–$69,000 zone. Meanwhile, the 200-period average (red), positioned higher around the low-$70Ks, marks a broader trend ceiling. As long as price remains beneath these levels, upside attempts are likely to encounter supply. Related Reading: Engine Stalled: How The $8 Billion ‘October Shock’ Left Bitcoin’s Spot Market In A Liquidity Trap On the downside, the $62,000–$63,000 region continues to act as horizontal support. The sharp wick earlier in February suggests aggressive liquidation-driven selling into that area, followed by a reflex bounce. However, subsequent rebounds have printed lower highs, indicating that buyers lack follow-through. Volume has tapered off compared to the breakdown phase, suggesting temporary equilibrium rather than accumulation. The current compression reflects indecision, not strength. A decisive 4-hour close above $69K would challenge the bearish structure, while a loss of $62K would likely trigger renewed downside expansion. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin has reclaimed the $66,000 level and is now attempting to consolidate above it in order to extend its recovery. The move has improved short-term momentum, but structural signals suggest that upside conviction remains fragile. Holding above $66K is technically important, yet the broader supply backdrop may limit the sustainability of further gains. Related Reading: Engine Stalled: How The $8 Billion ‘October Shock’ Left Bitcoin’s Spot Market In A Liquidity Trap According to analyst Axel Adler, cumulative exchange netflows remain a critical constraint. As long as netflows stay positive — meaning more Bitcoin is moving onto exchanges than leaving them — the probability of sustained price expansion remains limited. Recent data from the Bitcoin Exchange Reserve (All Exchanges, Daily) metric reinforces this caution. Since January 14, total BTC held across major exchanges has increased from 2.723 million to 2.752 million BTC, representing a net addition of roughly 28,489 BTC, or about 1% over 45 days. Although the trajectory has not been linear — with a local peak near 2.794 million BTC in early February followed by a partial pullback — reserves have consistently re-established themselves near the upper bound of the range. This stepwise growth structure signals a persistent return of coins to exchanges. Historically, rising exchange balances imply expanding potential sell-side supply. Until reserves break decisively below January’s 2.723 million BTC baseline, structural selling pressure remains embedded in the market. Netflow Regime Shift Signals Structural Distribution The 30-day moving average of Bitcoin exchange netflows provides critical confirmation that the recent reserve growth is not incidental. The transition from -1,187 BTC on January 14 to +628 BTC by February 27 represents more than a short-term fluctuation — it reflects a structural regime shift from accumulation to distribution. When the SMA(30) netflow remains negative, it indicates coins are being withdrawn from exchanges faster than they are deposited, typically associated with accumulation behavior. The steady climb toward zero throughout January, followed by a decisive cross into positive territory on February 1, marks a clear behavioral pivot. The fact that the indicator has held above zero for nearly four consecutive weeks significantly reduces the probability of a false breakout. The mid-February impulse toward +1,069 BTC highlights the intensity of inflows during peak distribution pressure. Although the metric moderated afterward, it did not revert below zero, suggesting that coins continue to migrate toward exchanges at a sustained pace. At an average structural inflow rate of roughly 628 BTC per day, the supply available for potential sale is expanding. Until the SMA(30) decisively flips back into negative territory, exchange-side pressure remains dominant, limiting the probability of a durable bullish regime reestablishing itself. Related Reading: The $2,000 Fault Line: Why Ethereum’s Record Volatility Signals An Imminent Explosion Bitcoin Tests Macro Support After Rejection From Highs Bitcoin’s weekly structure reflects a clear transition from expansion to correction following rejection near the $120K–$130K region. The chart shows a decisive breakdown below the $90K–$95K zone, which previously acted as structural support. That level has now flipped into resistance, confirming a shift in market control. Price is currently consolidating near $66K after a sharp decline, hovering just above the 200-week moving average. This level historically acts as a macro support during deeper corrective phases. Holding above it is technically significant; sustained closes below would likely signal a more prolonged bear cycle. The 50-week moving average has rolled over and is trending downward, while the 100-week average is flattening. This alignment indicates weakening intermediate momentum and suggests rallies may face overhead pressure unless key trend levels are reclaimed. Related Reading: Digital Gold Is Dead: The Institutional Architecture Binding Bitcoin To The Nasdaq In The 2026 Downturn Volume expanded notably during the breakdown phase, pointing to forced liquidations and distribution rather than orderly consolidation. Since then, participation has moderated, implying that panic selling has eased but conviction remains limited. Structurally, Bitcoin sits at a pivotal inflection point. A reclaim of the mid-$80K region would be required to restore bullish structure. Conversely, failure to defend current support could expose deeper liquidity zones below. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin continues to struggle to reclaim the $65,000 level as persistent selling pressure and weakening sentiment keep the market in a fragile state. Price action has remained subdued in recent weeks, with volatility elevated and risk appetite constrained by tightening liquidity conditions and macro uncertainty. The inability to secure sustained acceptance above this psychological threshold has reinforced caution among traders, leaving Bitcoin in what increasingly resembles a defensive phase rather than an early recovery environment. Related Reading: The Saylor Discount: Why Bitcoin Trading Below Strategy’s Realized Price is a Gift for Late-Cycle Allocators According to top analyst Axel Adler, recent on-chain data support this interpretation. Realized capitalization — which measures the aggregate value of Bitcoin based on the last price each coin moved — has declined for the second consecutive month. At the same time, the 3–6 month holder cohort has expanded significantly as coins acquired near cycle highs mature into that category. This dynamic typically reflects post-peak positioning rather than fresh accumulation. The 30-day Realized Cap Net Position Change currently sits around -2.26%, indicating sustained capital outflows from the network. Realized Cap peaked near $1.127 trillion in late November 2025 and has since contracted to roughly $1.094 trillion, representing about $33 billion in compression. Until this metric returns decisively to positive territory, evidence of renewed accumulation demand remains limited. HODL Waves Highlight Defensive Market Structure Adler notes that the latest HODL Waves data reinforces the view that Bitcoin remains in a defensive phase rather than active accumulation. The chart shows a sharp expansion in the 3–6 month coin-age cohort, which has risen to approximately 25.9% of the circulating supply. This reflects a growing share of coins last moved between August and November 2025 — a period closely aligned with purchases near the market peak. HODL Waves track the distribution of Bitcoin supply based on how long coins have remained dormant. Expansion of older cohorts generally indicates reduced transactional activity. However, in this case, the data suggests not confident accumulation but rather a “costly hold” environment, where many investors are sitting on underwater positions. The 3–6 month cohort has surged from roughly 19% at the start of February, while the 6–12 month group has also grown to about 20.2%. Meanwhile, short-term coins under one month account for only about 9.3% combined, signaling limited fresh demand entering the market. Combined with declining realized capitalization, the data points toward an aging supply without corresponding capital inflows. Until newer buying activity emerges and the 3–6 month cohort migrates into longer-term holding bands without selling pressure, Bitcoin’s broader market structure is likely to remain defensive rather than decisively bullish. Related Reading: The $45 Million Crypto Hammer: Whale Inflow To Binance Threatens To Shatter XRP’s Recovery Bitcoin Momentum Weakens As Price Tests Key Support Zone Bitcoin’s 3-day chart reflects clear structural deterioration as price accelerates lower toward the $63,000 region. After failing to reclaim the $90,000–$95,000 supply zone earlier in the year, BTC formed a distribution range before breaking decisively below its 50-period and 100-period moving averages. That breakdown triggered a sharp leg down, confirming a shift from consolidation to trend continuation on this timeframe. Currently, price trades well beneath the 50 SMA (~$92,000) and the 100 SMA (~$101,500), both of which have rolled over and now act as overhead resistance. The 200 SMA near the low-$90,000 region also remains far above the current price, reinforcing the broader bearish bias. The alignment of these moving averages — with shorter-term averages below longer-term ones — confirms negative momentum and sustained downside pressure. Related Reading: XRP’s Brutal Supply Compression Signals A Repeat Of The 2024 Expansion Volume expanded during the recent selloff, indicating active distribution rather than passive drift. The sharp rejection from the mid-$90,000 area, followed by impulsive downside candles, suggests sellers remain in control. From a structural perspective, the $60,000–$62,000 zone becomes the next critical support region. A sustained break below it could open the path toward deeper retracement levels. To stabilize, Bitcoin would need to reclaim at least the $75,000–$80,000 area and rebuild higher highs — a scenario not yet supported by current momentum. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

An analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin could be approaching a death cross between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs on the 3-day chart. Bitcoin Is Potentially Nearing A Death Cross On The 3-Day Timeframe In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about a death cross on Bitcoin’s 3-day price chart. A “death cross” popularly refers to a bearish signal produced by a crossover between two simple moving averages (SMAs) of an asset. Typically, a death cross involves the longer SMA moving above the shorter one. In the context of the current topic, the SMAs of relevance are the 50-day and 200-day versions. Related Reading: Bitcoin Capitulation Persists As Short-Term Holders Realize $0.48B Daily Losses Below is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the pattern displayed by these two SMAs for the 3-day Bitcoin price. As is visible in the graph, the 50-day SMA of the 3-day Bitcoin price saw a cross under the 200-day SMA in each of the last three cycles. All of these crossovers preceded bearish price action. More specifically, the 2014 crossover led to a drawdown of 52.19% for the asset, the 2018 one to 50.56%, and the 2022 one to 45.91%. Interestingly, these price declines all led to the bottoms of their respective bear markets. “Since 2014, the death cross between the 50 and 200 simple moving averages on the 3-day chart has consistently preceded the final leg down of a Bitcoin $BTC bear market,” noted the analyst. Jumping to the present, BTC has faced a bearish shift in recent months with a notable drawdown in its price. This has resulted in the 50-day SMA witnessing a decline toward the 200-day SMA. As a zoomed-in chart shared by Martinez in another X post shows, there is now not much distance left between the 50-day and 200-day SMAs of the 3-day Bitcoin price. If the two lines continue to follow the current trajectories, the analyst has estimated that a death cross could occur on February 27th. Given the past trend, such a death cross could take Bitcoin into its final leg for the bear market. It only remains to be seen, however, whether the current cycle will actually follow a similar pattern or if it will show divergence. Related Reading: Another $438M In Crypto Longs Gone As Bitcoin, Altcoins Pull Back In some other news, the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has slipped into the loss region recently, as on-chain analytics firm Glassnode has highlighted in an X post. In the past, a shift toward loss realization on the Bitcoin network has generally lasted for over six months before a return of liquidity has occurred. BTC Price Bitcoin has erased some of its recent recovery over the past couple of days as its price is now trading around $63,300. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

After closing the week below a crucial support level, Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen below the $65,000 support for the first time since the early February crash, reaching a two-week low of $64,152. Amid this performance, some analysts have warned that the flagship crypto could be on the “cusp of bearish acceleration,” warning that another major crash could be around the corner. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mirrors Software Stocks More Than Any Other Market — Here’s Why Bitcoin Loses The 200-Week EMA On Monday, analyst Rekt Capital highlighted that Bitcoin produced a “historically pivotal” development after closing last week below the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), which currently sits “at the center of a major confluence zone.” Notably, the 200-week EMA aligns with BTC’s Post-Halving Re-accumulation Range highs, located between $66,000-$71,000. Meanwhile, the Post-Halving Re-accumulation Range lows, around the $58,000-$60,000 levels, define the broader structure of BTC’s current range. Over the past three weeks, the cryptocurrency attempted to develop a demand region around this area, which was previously a major supply area. However, this level hasn’t historically been a structurally reliable support for BTC’s price, the analyst asserted, noting that it has previously acted as a 10-month resistance. “In the current structure, we have seen three consecutive weeks of elevated sell-side volume in this region, with limited meaningful buy-side response,” he explained. Per the post, this imbalance has led to a weekly close below the 200-week EMA, losing it as support in this timeframe. This suggests that a “continuation of Bearish Acceleration into its second wave” could follow soon. The analyst cautioned that now that price has closed the week below this critical level, there is a “strong probability that Bitcoin presses back toward the underside of that EMA to attempt turning it into new resistance.” If the underside retest holds, the structure would shift from defending the support to confirming the resistance at this level. He warned that if that level begins to act as resistance, downside continuation will become increasingly probable. BTC’s Bottom Targets $30,000 Rekt Capital also noted that BTC’s recent performance aligns closely with its price action in prior cycles. As he detailed, in 2018 and 2022, a weekly close below the 200-week EMA acted as a structural trigger to the second wave of bearish acceleration. “Bitcoin would attempt to reclaim the level, turn it into resistance, and then dissipate lower. That pattern is now attempting to replicate itself,” he asserted. Similarly, Ali Martinez pointed to the cryptocurrency’s historical performance, but on the three-day chart, affirming that this has been one of BTC’s key timeframes from a macro perspective. According to Martinez’s post, market observers must watch the upcoming interaction of the 50-day and 200-day Simple Moving Averages (SMAs), as the crossover between these two indicators on the three-day timeframe has historically preceded the final leg down of the bear market. Bitcoin dropped around 50%-72% from its 2013, 2017, and 2021 cycle tops before its death crosses took place in late 2014 and 2018, and mid 2022. Following the 50-day and 200-day SMAs crossovers, the flagship crypto experienced another 45%-52% decline. Related Reading: Investors In Trump Family Memecoins Record $4.3 Billion In Losses As Tokens Sink Now, BTC has fallen more than 52% from its October 2025 peak and is approaching a potential death cross on the three-day chart by the end of February. “If history repeats — even partially — this could signal the beginning of the final leg down of this cycle,” the analyst warned. Based on this, Martinez predicted that another 30%-50% correction from current levels could follow, placing the cryptocurrency’s target near the $30,000-$40,000 supports. “If the cross confirms, it becomes a level to take very seriously,” he concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

With Bitcoin (BTC) hovering around 50% below its all-time high of $126,000 reached last October, investors are increasingly questioning when the cryptocurrency might finally establish its next bottom.  According to market expert and technical analyst Altcoin Sherpa, the current bear phase is unlikely to drag on for another full year. In his view, Bitcoin could complete its downturn in less than 365 days and potentially resume its broader uptrend before year-end. Has Bitcoin Bottomed?  In a recent analysis published on X, Sherpa clarified that his timeline refers specifically to the move from peak to bottom and does not include the accumulation period that typically follows.  Accumulation, he explained, is characterized by choppy, sideways price action with relatively low volatility and subdued trading volume. Historically, this phase has lasted anywhere from two to four months. Related Reading: Can XRP Hold Above $1? Token Tumbles 11% as Breakdown Fuels Crash Concerns Looking back at previous cycles, Sherpa notes a fairly consistent rhythm. Bitcoin experienced a powerful rally in 2017 and again in 2021, each followed by a steep year-long decline in 2018 and 2022.  After those major drawdowns came an extended stretch of accumulation, as seen in 2019 and 2020. From the top in 2017 to the bottom in 2018, and similarly from 2021 to 2022, it took about one year for Bitcoin to complete its downward move.  Another common feature of past bear markets, he argues, has been a final capitulation event — a sharp, dramatic sell-off that effectively marks the end of the downtrend.  Sherpa believes a capitulation may have already occurred in 2026, pointing to Bitcoin’s drop from $100,000 to $60,000 as a potential final flush. If that interpretation is correct, the market could already be in the early stages of accumulation. Accumulation Could Already Be Underway  Because the 2024 and 2025 rallies were structurally different, Sherpa believes the decline will also differ. While the last two bear markets each lasted about a year from peak to bottom and saw drawdowns of approximately 85% and 75%, respectively, he does not expect the current downturn to mirror that pattern exactly. One reason, he says, is the growing role of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Although ETF products can and do decline along with the broader market, they have changed the structure of capital flows.  He also points to the lengthy consolidation between $50,000 and $70,000, where Bitcoin traded for roughly eight months. From a technical analysis perspective, such extended trading ranges often act as strong support zones during pullbacks.  Related Reading: Dogecoin (DOGE) Gives Back Gains, Support Level Under Spotlight As for timing, broader macroeconomic forces — including equities, metals, overall risk appetite and even developments in artificial intelligence — remain critical variables. Still, Sherpa does not think BTC needs another seven months of steady decline to form a bottom. If the recent $100,000 to $60,000 slide was indeed the final Bitcoin price capitulation, then accumulation may already be underway. Historically, that phase has lasted between two and four months, or roughly 60 to 120 days. However, he acknowledges one key risk to his outlook: the possibility that a final capitulation has not yet occurred. If another sell-off emerges — for example, a drop from $75,000 toward $50,000— he would interpret that as the definitive bottoming event. In that scenario, accumulation would likely follow for several months. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is once again facing notable selling pressure. The market confronts a challenging phase marked by weakening momentum and cautious investor positioning. Recent price action suggests that bullish conviction has softened. Traders are increasingly attentive to liquidity conditions, macro uncertainty, and shifting market sentiment. While volatility is not unusual at this stage of the cycle, the current environment reflects a market searching for direction rather than sustaining a clear upward trend. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Losses Hit Luna Crash Levels — But Price Context Points To A Different Market Phase A recent CryptoQuant report provides additional context through Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index (BCMI), a composite metric that integrates valuation, profitability, spending behavior, and sentiment indicators. According to the analysis, BCMI has fallen into the low 0.2 range, a level historically associated more with early bear market phases — such as those seen in 2018 and 2022 — rather than routine mid-cycle corrections. This shift suggests a deeper structural adjustment may be underway. Notably, BCMI was hovering near 0.5 as recently as October, a zone typically interpreted as market equilibrium between bullish and bearish forces. The subsequent decline indicates that this balance has broken down. Whether this signals the start of a prolonged bearish phase or a temporary reset will likely depend on future liquidity conditions, investor demand, and broader macroeconomic developments. BCMI Breakdown Points To Structural Weakness In Bitcoin Market The CryptoQuant report highlights a notable deterioration in Bitcoin’s Combined Market Index (BCMI), suggesting a shift away from mid-cycle consolidation toward a more defensive market regime. According to the analysis, the mid-cycle equilibrium around the 0.5 level failed to hold, with no meaningful rebound emerging from the 0.3 zone. Instead, the index continued declining directly toward the low 0.2 range without the type of expansion reset typically seen during healthier corrective phases. This pattern differs from past mid-cycle cooling periods and increasingly resembles a transition into a risk-off market environment. Historical comparisons provide additional perspective. Previous cycle bottoms generally formed when BCMI reached approximately 0.10–0.15, notably during 2019 and again in the 2022–2023 bear phase. Current readings remain above those capitulation levels, implying that while Bitcoin may already be operating within a bearish structural framework, full capitulation conditions have not yet materialized. Because BCMI aggregates valuation metrics such as MVRV, profitability indicators like NUPL, spending behavior via SOPR, and broader sentiment measures, its decline into the low 0.2 range reflects shrinking unrealized profits, rising realized losses, deteriorating sentiment, and ongoing valuation compression. Unless the index stabilizes and reclaims the 0.4–0.5 zone, the probability of continued structural weakness remains elevated. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drop Wipes Billions From Recent Buyers: New Whale Cost Basis Falls Toward $90K Bitcoin Tests Long-Term Support After Weekly Breakdown Bitcoin’s weekly chart reflects increasing structural pressure following the recent loss of the $70,000 level, a key psychological and technical threshold that had previously acted as support. Price has now retreated toward the mid-$60,000 range, placing BTC below shorter-term trend averages and signaling weakening bullish momentum. This shift suggests the market is transitioning from consolidation toward a more defensive phase. The chart shows a clear sequence of lower highs since the late-cycle peak near the $120,000 region. A pattern often associated with corrective or transitional market environments. Recent declines have been accompanied by elevated trading volume. Typically indicative of distribution or forced deleveraging rather than gradual profit-taking. Such dynamics often increase volatility while complicating sustained recovery attempts. Related Reading: Long-Term Ethereum Holders Expand Positions While Market Faces Pressure: Rare Signal Emerges From a structural perspective, the $60,000–$62,000 zone emerges as a critical support area. This region aligns with prior consolidation phases and high-liquidity trading zones that historically attracted demand. Holding above this level could allow Bitcoin to stabilize and potentially form a base for sideways consolidation. However, a decisive breakdown would raise the probability of deeper retracement scenarios. Bitcoin’s direction remains closely tied to liquidity conditions, institutional flows, and broader macro sentiment influencing risk assets. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is facing renewed selling pressure after losing the key $70,000 level, a breakdown that has pushed the market into a more defensive phase. The inability to hold this psychological support has weighed on sentiment. With traders increasingly cautious as volatility rises and liquidity conditions remain uncertain. Price action near the mid-$60,000 range now represents a critical zone where market participants are assessing whether the current move is a deeper correction or simply another consolidation phase within the broader cycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Drop Wipes Billions From Recent Buyers: New Whale Cost Basis Falls Toward $90K On-chain data highlighted by analyst Axel Adler adds important context to the recent decline. According to his analysis, realized losses across the Bitcoin network have surged to levels comparable to those seen during the June 2022 Luna and UST crash. At first glance, this suggests significant stress and widespread capitulation among investors. However, the price backdrop is markedly different this time. Whereas the 2022 losses occurred when Bitcoin traded near $19,000, the current wave of loss realization is unfolding around $67,000. This distinction materially changes how the signal is interpreted. Rather than pointing to systemic market collapse, the data may reflect the flushing out of late-cycle buyers and leveraged positions, leaving Bitcoin at a pivotal stage where demand strength will determine the next directional move. Extreme Realized Losses Signal Capitulation, Not Structural Breakdown Axel Adler’s latest on-chain assessment highlights a sharp deterioration in Bitcoin’s realized profit and loss dynamics. The Bitcoin Net Realized Profit/Loss 7-day moving average recently dropped to around -$1.99 billion, signaling large-scale loss-taking comparable to conditions seen during the June 2022 Luna-driven market shock. This metric tracks the balance between realized profits and losses from coins moving on-chain, offering a smoothed view of investor behavior over time. Although the indicator slightly recovered to roughly -$1.73 billion in the following days, it still represents the second-deepest negative reading on record. Net losses have remained below -$1.7 billion for several consecutive sessions. This indicates persistent seller pressure and ongoing capitulation among investors who entered the market at higher prices. Historically, a sustained return above zero has marked transitions back to profit-dominant market phases. Bitcoin Realized Loss has climbed to approximately $2.3 billion on a 7-day basis, a level comparable to peak stress during the 2022 crash. However, the broader context differs significantly. Similar loss volumes are now occurring near $67,000 rather than $19,000, suggesting a cyclical flush of late bull-market entrants rather than systemic market failure or structural network deterioration. Related Reading: Ethereum Holders Shift To Self-Custody As Market Consolidates Near $2K Bitcoin Breakdown Extends As Momentum Remains Bearish Bitcoin’s daily chart reflects sustained downside pressure after the decisive loss of the $70,000 level. The price is now hovering in the mid-$60,000 range following a sharp decline. The move confirms a clear shift in short-term market structure, characterized by lower highs, accelerating selloffs, and repeated failures to reclaim former support zones. This pattern typically signals weakening bullish momentum and increasing caution among market participants. Technically, Bitcoin is trading below key moving averages, which now act as overhead resistance rather than support. The inability to recover these levels suggests that sellers continue to dominate short-term price action. Recent spikes in trading volume during the drop reinforce the idea of forced deleveraging and defensive positioning rather than orderly rotation or accumulation. Related Reading: Ethereum Crash Below $2,000 Triggers Record Token Movement: Hinting At Capitulation The $60,000–$62,000 region emerges as the next critical support area. Aligning with prior consolidation zones and historical liquidity clusters. Holding this range would help stabilize sentiment and potentially enable consolidation. A break below it, however, could open the door to deeper retracement scenarios. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin’s latest drawdown from its all-time high is being compared to 2022 across crypto Twitter (the similarities are obvious), but some technicians argue the similarity is mostly superficial. In a series of posts, TexasWest Capital CEO Christopher Inks said the current move looks like a completed five-wave decline tied to a positioning washout, not the kind of structurally driven breakdown that defined the 2022 unwind. Bitcoin Vs. 2022: Similar Chart, Different Story? Inks’ core claim is about where the market sits in the broader pattern. “One of the differences between the current drop off the ATH and the 2022 drop of ATH is that we just appear to have completed 5 waves down,” he wrote. “Back then the same area everyone is referencing had already completed five down, the three wave correction, and then broken down further.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Could See New Drop To $60,000 Despite Bounce – Here’s The Level To Defend On his weekly BTCUSD chart, Inks annotated what he sees as a five-wave decline into early 2026, followed by sideways consolidation around a “weekly pivot,” after what he described as a sharp recovery late last week. The implication is less about calling a definitive bottom and more about sequencing: if the five-wave leg is complete, the next phase is typically corrective or base-building rather than an immediate continuation lower. Inks also separated the catalysts. The 2022 breakdown coincided with the TerraUSD depeg and ensuing market dislocation, a reflexive shock that tightened collateral and impaired liquidity across venues. By contrast, he framed last week’s selling as risk reduction rather than crisis fallout. “Another difference between the two periods is that the former coincided with the TerraUSDT depeg and break down which was a market structural event that was the catalyst for the Bitcoin breakdown at that time,” Inks wrote. “As I’ve been mentioning, last week’s breakdown was a degrossing (risk-off position reduction). These are two wholly different market moves.” “Does this guarantee that the low is in? Of course not, but if you’re comparing two events then you should compare how they occurred and not just that the price action looks kinda similar,” he added. “That way, if price does something other than what it did last time you won’t be running around in disbelief screaming ‘manipulation’ and ‘what’s going on!’” Related Reading: Retail Dumps, Bitcoin Inflows Surge: On-Chain Data Flags Capitulation Inks said Bitcoin failed to reclaim a weekly close back inside the prior range around $75,000, leaving open the possibility that the selloff was a “terminal shakeout” rather than the start of a deeper trend. His roadmap, however, was explicitly time-based: he wants to see the low hold for “the next 2–3 weeks” with “declining volumes on the pullbacks,” plus a higher low on the weekly timeframe and “compression below resistance instead of rejection.” He also tied the move to rates positioning. Inks pointed to a two-year Treasury note futures chart that, in his view, remained coiled rather than breaking higher alongside the risk-off episode, another data point supporting the idea that last week’s selling was “pre-resolution positioning rather than post-crisis fallout.” With regards to the lower timeframes (1-hour chart), Inks urged for patience: “Bitcoin continues to consolidate sideways around the weekly pivot, within the range shown. Not surprising after Friday’s strong recovery. Takes time to build confidence after something like that. And if you are hoping the low is in, then that’s what you should prefer to see rather than continued move straight up without building bases to provide support on pullbacks.” At press time, BTC traded at $68,639. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

As the crypto market recovers from last week’s correction, Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to reclaim a crucial price zone. Despite the bounce, some analysts have warned that the bottom may not be in yet, suggesting the flagship crypto could soon retest its recent lows. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Set To Break Out Against Bitcoin, But How High Can It Go? Bitcoin Bottom Below $60,000, Says Analyst On Monday, Bitcoin continued its sideways move, trying to turn a key area into support for the third consecutive day. After hitting a two-year low of $60,000 last week, the flagship crypto has bounced 17.5% to trade between $68,000 and $72,000 over the past few days. Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency has failed to reclaim the upper zone of its short-term price range, raising questions about the direction of BTC’s next move. As the price recovered, Crypto Bullet noted that the BTC printed a “strong weekly close” above the 200-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA), leaving Thursday’s correction as a long wick. The analyst cautioned that these wicks have usually been filled the following week, pointing to the late February 2025 and early October 2025 corrections and the subsequent performance. Based on this, he suggested that Bitcoin could retest the $60,000 area again, where the 200-week Moving Average (MA) is also located. Similarly, Ted Pillows highlighted BTC’s Monday bounce above $70,000, asserting that the key level to defend is the $68,000 support, where the EMA200 sits.  If the price fails to hold this level, the market observer suggested a deeper correction could be expected, with Bitcoin risking a drop below the recent lows if that level also fails to hold. Meanwhile, Ali Martinez hinted that BTC’s bottom might not be in, as “Bitcoin has historically bottomed around the −1.0 MVRV Pricing Band.” According to the chart shared on X, that level currently sits at $52,040. BTC To See Leeser Relief Rally? Another market watcher highlighted BTC’s macro descending triangle pattern, which it has been forming in the monthly timeframe since mid-2024, suggesting that its potential bounce could be a “lesser relief rally compared to the 2024-2025 advance to the upside.” Rekt Capital noted that upon breakdown from its macro triangles, Bitcoin tends to react from the 50-Month EMA. However, it has historically been followed by a downside deviation below this level. “When viewed through the lens of the Macro Descending Triangle, history shows that Bitcoin has consistently failed to revisit the base of the Macro Triangle following breakdowns, which means BTC may fall short of $82.5k on any upcoming relief rally.” To the analyst, if BTC can build support above the $71,000 area, where the post-halving accumulation breakout occurred, the price could attempt a move into the mid-$70,000. Related Reading: XRP Ledger Clears The Threshold For Institutional Settlement – Here’s How However, the flagship crypto “is still negotiating whether it will locate itself within the Post-Halving Range,” and has not decisively reclaimed the upper zone of its current range as support, “is instead showing early signs of flipping into resistance on the Weekly timeframe.” As a result, Bitcoin could consolidate around its post-halving range again if the $70,000 mark confirms as resistance. “At roughly 30% of the way through this part of the market cycle, there remains ample time for further structural movement to unfold but history suggests whatever clustering develops will likely be distributive before continuing additional Bearish Acceleration,” Rekt Capital concluded. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin is hovering around the $65,000 level as persistent selling pressure continues to weigh on market sentiment. The recent decline has intensified uncertainty among investors, with volatility rising while liquidity conditions remain fragile. After a strong rally earlier in the cycle, price action now reflects a more defensive phase, with traders increasingly focused on downside risk rather than upside momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Deep In Loss: MVRV Signals Capitulation Phase A recent CryptoQuant report frames the central question facing the crypto market: how far this bear phase could extend before a durable bottom forms. Bitcoin has declined roughly 17% this year, a move attributed to several converging factors. These include approximately $12 billion in institutional ETF outflows over the past three months, broader global risk aversion tied to macroeconomic conditions, and ongoing regulatory ambiguity that continues to limit large-scale capital commitment. Despite the negative backdrop, analysts note that intense institutional selling does not necessarily preclude a reversal. Historically, periods of heavy distribution often precede accumulation phases. The analytical focus is therefore shifting toward identifying a potential accumulation zone — a price range where selling pressure becomes exhausted, and larger market participants begin rebuilding exposure. That transition, if confirmed, would likely mark the early stages of trend stabilization rather than an immediate recovery. Market Cycle Signals: Capitulation Phase Or Early Accumulation? According to the report, understanding the current Bitcoin environment requires focusing on market structure rather than short-term price forecasts. One framework gaining attention is the BTC Market Cycle Signals indicator, an on-chain analytical tool that interprets Bitcoin’s cycle through three distinct phases using monthly Bollinger Band positioning. This approach aims to contextualize volatility rather than simply react to it. The first phase, Distribution, typically occurs when the price reaches or exceeds the upper Bollinger Band, often reflecting euphoric sentiment and profit-taking behavior. This stage historically aligns with cycle tops. The second phase, Capitulation, emerges when price declines below the 20-month moving average and gravitates toward the lower band, signaling panic, forced selling, and deteriorating sentiment. Finally, the Accumulation phase represents conditions where long-term positioning becomes favorable, although this zone does not always coincide with the exact market bottom. Current price action appears to be converging toward the level associated with early accumulation, estimated around $54,600. Historically, this range has acted as a transitional zone between capitulation and renewed accumulation activity. However, this should be interpreted cautiously. While such indicators help clarify cycle positioning, they do not eliminate uncertainty. Market reversals typically require confirmation through liquidity inflows, improving sentiment, and sustained structural demand rather than technical positioning alone. Related Reading: Ethereum Coinbase Premium Drops To 2022 Bear-Market Levels: Capitulation Or Further Downside? Bitcoin Breaks Key Support As Bearish Momentum Intensifies Bitcoin continues to trade under heavy pressure, with the weekly chart showing a decisive breakdown below the $70,000 level after several weeks of weakening structure. Price recently closed near $67,200 following a sharp rejection from the mid-$90K region, confirming a clear lower-high formation and reinforcing a bearish trend continuation. The move also represents a loss of momentum after the failed recovery attempt above the 50-week moving average, which had previously acted as dynamic support during the uptrend. Technically, Bitcoin is now trading below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. While the 200-week average remains significantly lower near the mid-$50K area. Historically, this zone has acted as a major long-term support. Suggesting that further downside in that region cannot be ruled out if selling pressure persists. Volume expansion during the recent drop indicates distribution rather than simple low-liquidity volatility. Related Reading: Are We Near A Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom? History Offers A Framework The market appears to be transitioning from a late bull-cycle correction into a potential bear-market consolidation phase. Unless Bitcoin quickly reclaims the $70K–$75K range and stabilizes above it, the probability of continued downside or prolonged sideways accumulation remains elevated in the near term. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

Data shows the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has continued to decline recently, with its value now hitting the lowest level since the 2022 bear market. Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index Is Deep Inside Extreme Fear Zone The “Fear & Greed Index” refers to an indicator created by Alternative that tracks the average sentiment present among traders in the Bitcoin and wider cryptocurrency markets. Related Reading: Bitcoin Realized Loss Nears $900 Million, Highest Since FTX Crash The index determines the trader mentality using the data of the following five factors: trading volume, volatility, market cap dominance, social media sentiment, and Google Trends. To represent the sentiment, it makes use of a numerical scale running from zero to hundred. When the value of the indicator is above 53, it means the investors as a whole share a sentiment of greed. On the other hand, the metric being under 47 suggests the dominance of fear. Naturally, the index lying between these two cutoffs implies a neutral mentality is shared by the majority. Besides these three main zones, there are also two ‘extreme’ regions called the extreme fear (25 and below) and extreme greed (above 75). After the recent market downturn, sentiment among cryptocurrency traders has deteriorated into the former of the two. Here is how the latest value of the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index looks: As displayed above, the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index has a value of 9 at the moment, which is a pretty low level. In fact, this level is so deep into extreme fear that this is the first time in the current cycle that the metric has reached it. Below is a chart that shows how the current level of extreme fear lines up against the indicator’s historical data. From the graph, it’s visible that the last time the Bitcoin Fear & Greed Index reached a value this low was back in June 2022, right in the middle of that year’s bear market. The latest drop in the metric to a single-digit value is a result of the price drawdown that BTC and other cryptocurrencies have faced since the last week of January. This decline in sentiment, however, may not be such a bad thing for the sector, if history is to go by. Often, an extremely fearful market facilitates bottom formations as underwater investors capitulate and resolute hands pick up their coins. During a bear market, however, the Fear & Greed Index is usually inside the zone for a notable duration before a bottom is reached. Related Reading: XRP Social Sentiment Still Bullish While Bitcoin Mood Sours If the recent shift in the sector reflects a transition to a bear market, then it only remains to be seen how long mood will be in extreme fear before relief arrives for Bitcoin and company. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $67,100, down 19% over the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com

PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the stock-to-flow model, says bitcoin’s drawdown has left markets staring at four plausible bear-market paths, ranging from a classic 80% drawdown to the possibility that the lows are already in. In a post on X and a follow-up video dated Feb. 4, PlanB framed the debate around where bitcoin typically finds bear-market bottoms relative to long-term trend metrics, while also arguing that the previous rally’s lack of momentum could translate into a shallower reset this time. Bitcoin closed January at $78,000, he said, marking a roughly 40% decline from the cycle’s all-time high at $126,000. On his chart, the 200-week moving average closed at $58,000 and realized price at $55,000, with the January RSI ending at 49, a level he treats as a regime shift. “RSI here, 49. RSI, as you know, is an index between 0 and 100. And everything above 50 is an uptrend. Everything below 50 is downtrend,” PlanB said. “So 49 is below 50, it’s downtrend. It’s a bear market… similar to 2014–15, 2018–19 and 2022–23.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Unrealized Losses Reach 22% – Still No Capitulation Phase 4 Bitcoin Bear Market Scenarios From there, he outlined four scenarios for how the drawdown could evolve. The first is the historical “worst case” that still sits in traders’ mental models: an 80% drop from the top. With an ATH of $126,000, PlanB said that would imply a move to roughly $25,000 — “somewhere here between these two lines” on his chart, even if he acknowledged it would “look really really odd.” The second scenario is more conventional by his own backtests: a bottom around the 200-week moving average and realized price, which he pegged in the $50,000–$60,000 level. PlanB pointed to prior cycles where price eventually “drop[s] to the moving average realized price levels,” highlighting 2022 and 2015 as examples where the RSI trough coincided with those long-term anchors. The third scenario is shallower still: a retrace that stops just above the prior cycle’s all-time high, around $69,000–$70,000. PlanB’s reasoning is that the preceding bull phase looked muted in his indicators, which could compress the magnitude of the bear. “So what I think is… because the bull market was very weak… it didn’t have the red dots, the high RSI peaks,” he said. “Because of that, the bear market could be very shallow. And that would mean, for example, going back to the level or just be above the level of the… previous all-time high, which was 69,000.” Related Reading: ‘Sell Gold, Buy Bitcoin’: Cathie Wood Makes The Rotation Call The fourth scenario is the one traders always want on their screens: that the market already printed its low. PlanB wrote that “yesterday’s $72.9k was the bottom,” and reiterated in the video that “maybe the $72.800 that we saw a couple days ago was already the bottom.” Notably, the BTC price already dropped to $70,140 on Wednesday, invalidating this scenario. IMO there are 4 bitcoin bear market scenarios: 1) -80% from ATH $126k => $25k 2) down to 200w MA / realized price => $50k-60k 3) down to just above previous ATH => $70k 4) yesterday’s $72.9k was the bottom I discuss these scenario’s in my new video: ???? https://t.co/mXSxJK9LLx — PlanB (@100trillionUSD) February 4, 2026 PlanB also revisited his stock-to-flow framework, saying it remains at $500,000 as a value signal derived from scarcity while stressing it is not built to call turning points. “Stock to flow says nothing about tops and bottoms,” he said, adding that it speaks to “the four-year average” and periodic “phase transition every four or five years.” That caveat set up his final point: the cycle template may be shifting. PlanB noted that in his four-year-cycle view, the peak historically lands in the first or second year after a halving, but “it didn’t happen after 2024 halving.” In his telling, that leaves room for an upside phase later in the cycle, even as his nearer-term framework keeps the focus on whether bitcoin gravitates toward realized price and the 200-week average, holds the prior ATH zone, or validates a higher low in the low-$70,000s. At press time, BTC traded at $ Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode released a new report on Wednesday highlighting a growing list of warning signals for Bitcoin (BTC), as the market’s leading cryptocurrency slid back to the $72,000 level during the latest market downturn.  The firm’s findings suggest that both structural and behavioral indicators are aligning around a more defensive market phase, raising concerns about near‑term stability. Shift Toward Deeper Bear Phase Glassnode pointed first to the breakdown of the True Market Mean, a metric that reflects the aggregate cost basis of actively circulating Bitcoin while excluding long‑inactive coins such as lost supply, early miner holdings, and Satoshi‑era coins.  Related Reading: Ripple Throws Weight Behind Hyperliquid, Fueling HYPE’s Rally Toward Crucial Levels Its recent failure, Glassnode said, confirms a deterioration that has been developing since late November of last year, with market conditions beginning to resemble the early‑2022 shift from prolonged consolidation into a deeper bear market.  Weak follow‑through from buyers, combined with persistent selling pressure, indicates the market is now operating in a far more fragile balance. From a medium‑term valuation standpoint, Bitcoin’s price is becoming increasingly confined within a wider corridor. The former support level at the True Market Mean, now sitting near $80,200, has flipped into overhead resistance. On the lower end, the Realized Price — currently around $55,800 — continues to define the zone where long‑term capital has historically re‑entered the market.  With this structural reset now in place, Glassnode said attention is turning toward identifying where downside stabilization could occur and where a more durable bottom might eventually form. Key Bitcoin Demand Zones While no single indicator can pinpoint a market low, several on‑chain metrics offer clues about where near‑term demand could emerge. One such tool is the UTXO Realized Price Distribution, which shows how much Bitcoin supply is held at various cost bases.  Current data reveals meaningful accumulation by newer market participants in the $70,000 to $80,000 range, suggesting that some buyers are willing to step in amid weakness.  Below that area, a dense concentration of supply between roughly $66,900 and $70,600 stands out as a high‑conviction zone. Historically, regions with heavy cost‑basis clustering have often acted as short‑term shock absorbers, where selling pressure is more easily met by responsive demand. In its conclusion, Glassnode said Bitcoin has moved deeper into a defensive regime, with on‑chain and off‑chain indicators pointing in the same bearish direction.  Profitability metrics show that unrealized gains have been heavily eroded, while realized losses continue to climb as investors reduce exposure into weakness. Thin spot liquidity is adding to the problem, as muted participation makes it difficult for rallies to gain traction. Related Reading: Bitwise CIO Warns Market Is Facing A ‘Full-Bore’ Crypto Winter, Not A Pullback For now, Glassnode emphasized that the key variable remains spot demand. Without a meaningful return of buyers and consistent inflows, Bitcoin remains exposed to further downside and unstable rebounds.  Until conviction rebuilds and participation improves, the firm asserts that the balance of risk continues to tilt lower, suggesting that any recovery is likely to require time, absorption, and renewed confidence from the market. At the time of writing, the leading cryptocurrency was trading at approximately $73,099, marking a significant 18% retracement over the course of the week.  Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com 

Bitcoin is struggling to stabilize around the $75,000 level as broader market weakness continues to weigh on price action. After weeks of sustained selling pressure, volatility has compressed, but confidence has not yet returned. Traders remain cautious, liquidity is thinner, and upside attempts have so far failed to gain traction. The current environment reflects a market searching for equilibrium rather than signaling a clear reversal. Related Reading: Bitcoin Unrealized Losses Reach 22% – Still No Capitulation Phase According to On-Chain Mind, assessing whether Bitcoin is approaching a bear market bottom requires shifting focus away from short-term price moves and toward structural stress across the network. In prior cycles, true capitulation did not occur until the majority of participants were deeply underwater. This condition is captured by the Cap Loss Ratio, a metric that compares Realized Cap—Bitcoin’s aggregate cost basis—to Market Cap. When the ratio spikes, it reflects widespread unrealized losses and collective pain across holders. Historically, these spikes have coincided with moments of maximum pessimism, when forced selling, exhausted demand, and broad capitulation aligned to form durable bottoms. The key question now is whether the current drawdown is sufficient to trigger that level of stress, or if further downside is required to fully reset the market. With Bitcoin hovering near critical support, On-Chain Mind poses the central question facing investors today: are we approaching a bear market bottom, or is the market still early in its capitulation phase? Cap Loss Ratio Signals Capitulation Still Ahead On-Chain Mind notes that the historical behavior of the Cap Loss Ratio provides a useful framework for judging where Bitcoin may sit within a bear market cycle. In previous downturns, the metric reached progressively lower peak levels as the market matured. During the 2015 bear market, the Cap Loss Ratio spiked above 0.5, reflecting extreme network-wide distress and deep, prolonged capitulation. In the 2018–2019 cycle, the peak was lower, around 0.4, while the 2022 bear market topped out closer to 0.3. This steady reduction in peak stress suggests diminishing severity across cycles, likely driven by a more diversified holder base, stronger long-term conviction, and improved market infrastructure. If this pattern continues, On-Chain Mind argues that final capitulation in the current cycle would most likely occur with the Cap Loss Ratio somewhere between 0.1 and 0.2. Crucially, the market has not reached that zone yet. Current readings imply that while significant pain has already been absorbed, aggregate losses across the network are still below levels historically associated with definitive bottoms. The market faces additional downside and further stress before it reaches a full reset. At the same time, history shows that the 0.1–0.2 range has often marked areas where long-term, high-conviction entries emerge. These zones tend to coincide with maximum pessimism, declining participation, and forced selling exhaustion. For investors focused on structure rather than short-term price action, this framework helps define where risk remains elevated—and where generational opportunities have previously formed. Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Profit-Taking Collapses: Is Smart Money Done Selling? Bitcoin Tests Critical Support as Weekly Trend Weakens Bitcoin is trading near the $75,000 area after a sharp rejection from higher levels, confirming a clear shift in market structure on the weekly timeframe. The chart reveals that BTC has decisively broken the rising trend previously sustained by the 50-week moving average. Price is now trading below both the 50-week (blue) and the 100-week (green) moving averages. This historically signals a transition from trend continuation into a corrective or distributive phase. The recent breakdown followed a failed attempt to reclaim the $90,000–$95,000 zone. Which previously acted as support and has now flipped into resistance. This failure accelerated selling pressure and pushed the price toward the $74,000–$75,000 region. A level that coincides with prior consolidation and psychological support. Related Reading: Ethereum Experiences Broad Long Squeeze Across Derivatives Exchanges: Can Bulls Hold $2,300? Despite the weakness, Bitcoin remains above the 200-week moving average (red), which continues to slope upward and currently sits well below the price. From a long-term perspective, this confirms that the macro uptrend remains intact. However, momentum clearly favors the downside in the medium term. If $74,000 fails to hold, the chart indicates a deeper retracement toward the low $60,000s, where stronger historical demand resides. Conversely, any recovery attempt must first reclaim the 100-week moving average to shift the structure back toward neutrality. For now, the chart reflects a market under pressure, testing whether buyers are willing to defend this critical zone. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

The Bitcoin drawdown below $75,000 has market participants debating a familiar question: how long does a bear market last when the data refuses to improve. CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno, speaking on The Milk Road Show on Feb. 2, argued that most major demand and liquidity indicators are still signaling weakness and that the bottoming process could take months, not weeks. Bitcoin Bear Market Can’t Be Denied Anymore Moreno’s core framework is CryptoQuant’s “Bull Score Index,” a composite of 10 metrics spanning on-chain valuation, liquidity conditions, market data, and a single technical trend input. “The index goes from zero to 100. Zero is the most bearish, 100 is the most bullish,” he said. “First the index is at zero, which is extremely bearish territory […] and it has been between like zero and 10 for the last maybe month and a half […] What it’s telling us is there’s too much weakness in either the data [or] in the markets.” He pointed to how quickly the same index flipped in October, when a liquidation event accelerated the shift from bullish to bearish readings. In early October the index hit 80, “well inside bullish territory” before collapsing toward 20–30 in “a few days,” a move Moreno interpreted as a momentum failure that turned a late-cycle rally into a short-lived spike. Moreno’s bigger point was about lead time. He said the index “tends to become […] bearish before there’s a big correction in prices,” framing it as an early-warning system rather than a lagging confirmation tool. On the show, he summarized the current regime bluntly: Bitcoin is “well in bear market,” and “the data is just not supportive of any meaningful reversal.” Related Reading: Oct. 10 Started The Bitcoin Bear Market, On-Chain Data Shows On demand, Moreno highlighted US spot Bitcoin ETFs, which he said shifted into net selling in Q4 and remained a drag into early 2026. He cited year-to-date flows showing ETFs had sold more than 10,000 BTC in January, compared with purchasing 46,000 BTC in the same period a year earlier. “If ETFs are net sellers then it’s not supportive for prices,” he said, adding that any sustained recovery would likely require that demand to stabilize and grow again. The same dynamic showed up in the Coinbase premium, the price spread between Coinbase and offshore exchanges such as Binance. Moreno described the premium as a proxy for US demand and said it flipped negative in November and has stayed negative “most of the time” since. Historically, he argued, bull markets have been “driven by […] higher US demand,” and the persistence of a discount suggests the US bid hasn’t returned, even after the drawdown. Moreno also pointed to stablecoin liquidity as a missing tailwind. He tracked the 60-day change in USDT market cap, a proxy for fresh capital entering the trading ecosystem, and said growth has effectively stalled since mid-October. New issuance tends to land on exchanges, he explained, “and provides […] dry powder for then traders buying crypto,” tying stablecoin expansion directly to market-wide liquidity conditions. Beyond ETFs and stablecoins, Moreno said CryptoQuant’s longer-term Bitcoin demand growth model is hovering near zero on a year-over-year basis. “What drives bull markets is this […] growth in demand, the demand waves,” he said, but since October that growth has slowed sharply. In his view, it helps explain why downside has persisted even as the market searches for a durable base. Related Reading: ‘Sell Gold, Buy Bitcoin’: Cathie Wood Makes The Rotation Call Leverage positioning has also deteriorated. Moreno used perpetual futures funding rates as a read on the appetite to hold long exposure and said the one-year average funding rate trend is pointing lower: “less appetite to go long” while short-term funding flips need to be interpreted differently depending on whether the market is in a bull or bear regime. How Deep Into the Bitcoin Bear Market Are We Now? w/ @cryptoquant_com Head of Research @jjcmoreno Bitcoin is trading CHEAPER on Coinbase than Binance. That almost never happens in bull markets. This one signal tells you who is NOT buying the dip. Tune in to know more ⏱… pic.twitter.com/0uxGtntOZP — Milk Road (@MilkRoad) February 2, 2026 When Will The Bitcoin Bear Market End? For the technical component, Moreno emphasized Bitcoin’s one-year moving average, which he treats as a regime filter. “A good way to see the trend in the price is just looking at the one-year moving average,” he said, arguing it acts as support in bull markets and resistance once price breaks below. He noted Bitcoin crossed beneath it in early November and has failed to reclaim it, a pattern he said resembles early 2022. On key levels, Moreno described the “trader on-chain realized price” — the estimated cost basis of active market participants — as overhead resistance around $89,000 and $79,000. His next price target is $70,000 as an intermediate marker and $56,000 as a deeper level tied to the same cost-basis framework. Moreno closed with a warning about psychology as much as charting. “First of all you have to accept this. We are in a bear market. So plan accordingly,” he said. “There will be price rallies […] but don’t confuse that with the start of a bull market […] and […] don’t catch the falling knife […] the market’s bottom in months.” As for duration, Moreno said he could see the first credible bottoming window emerging around Q3 2026, based on historical patterns and the fact that this downturn appears to have started earlier than some prior cycles. Whether that timeline holds, he suggested, will depend less on a single bounce and more on whether demand, US flows, and liquidity indicators stop flatlining and start turning back up. At press time, BTC traded at $75,041. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin’s bear-market turn can be traced to Oct. 10, 2025, a session widely described as the largest crypto derivatives liquidation event on record, with roughly $19 billion in futures positions forcibly unwound as prices slid sharply off their highs. CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost argues the damage was structural as much as directional: open interest fell by about 70,000 BTC in a single day, wiping out months of leverage build-up and leaving speculation struggling to re-form. He claims that the Oct. 10 flush was “really the one that pushed BTC into a bear market” because of the speed and magnitude of liquidity destruction in futures. Why October 10 Was The Bitcoin Bear Market Beginning Darkfost pointed to a collapse in open interest measured in BTC terms. “In a single day, around 70,000 BTC were wiped out from Open Interest, bringing it back to its April 2025 levels,” he wrote. “That’s the equivalent of more than six months of Open Interest accumulation erased in one session. Since then, Open Interest has been stagnating and struggling to rebuild.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bear Market Signal Emerges: Supply in Loss Rises Above 40% The implication is less about the specific catalyst for the selloff and more about market structure after it. In Darkfost’s telling, the Oct. 10 event wasn’t just a price move; it was a sudden reduction in the market’s capacity to carry leverage, which tends to compress speculative activity across the complex. “Liquidity destruction in an already uncertain crypto market environment is not conducive to a return of speculation, which is nonetheless a key component of the crypto market,” he added. That view resonated with Bitcoin Capital, which replied that “nothing has been the same after 10/10,” adding that “it actually feels like something broke.” Darkfost’s response was blunt about the path back: “It needs to be rebuilt and it can takes months …” In a follow-up post, Darkfost widened the lens beyond derivatives, describing an environment where spot participation has also cooled. He said Bitcoin is entering a fifth consecutive month of correction, with the October 10 event as a major driver due to its impact on futures liquidity, but “not the only factor at play.” Related Reading: 70% Bitcoin Crash Incoming? CryptoQuant CEO Says It Depends On This He flagged broader liquidity pressure via stablecoin flows and supply. According to his figures, stablecoin outflows from exchanges have coincided with an approximate $10 billion decline in aggregate stablecoin market capitalization over the same period, an additional headwind for risk-taking, particularly when leverage is already being de-risked. Spot volumes, he argued, tell a similar story of disengagement. Since October, BTC spot volumes have been cut roughly in half, with Binance still holding the largest share at $104 billion. He contrasted that with October levels when Binance volume “had nearly reached $200B,” alongside $53 billion on Gate.io and $47 billion on Bybit. Darkfost characterized the contraction as a return to “levels among the lowest observed since 2024,” and read it as weaker demand rather than simply a lull in activity. The current setup, he wrote, “remains uncertain and does not encourage risk-taking,” arguing that a durable recovery would require monitoring liquidity conditions and, “above all,” seeing spot trading volumes return. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $78,723. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com

Bitcoin slipped below the $80,000 level over the weekend as selling pressure intensified across global markets. Reinforcing a climate of uncertainty that has weighed heavily on risk assets in recent weeks. The move came amid broad weakness in equities, elevated volatility, and declining liquidity conditions, pushing many investors into a defensive posture. While the price action alone may resemble prior corrective phases, on-chain data suggest that the underlying market structure is beginning to change. A recent analysis from CryptoQuant indicates that Bitcoin is starting to exhibit characteristics historically associated with the early stages of bear markets. One of the clearest signals comes from the Supply in Loss (%) metric, which has climbed sharply to around 44% and continues to trend higher. This means a growing share of circulating BTC is now held at an unrealized loss. Reflecting increasing stress across market participants. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Fees Remain Near Cycle Lows: What Does This Signal? Importantly, Bitcoin is still trading above its Realized Price, suggesting the market has not yet reached full capitulation. However, the combination of rising losses and weakening price structure raises the risk that the current phase represents the transition into a broader bear market, rather than a temporary correction within an ongoing uptrend. Supply in Loss Signals Structural Shift Toward a Bear Market The report explains that Bitcoin’s current on-chain structure closely mirrors conditions observed at the onset of previous bear markets. Historically, several signals have tended to appear together at the start of prolonged downside phases rather than at the end of routine corrections. These include Supply in Loss expanding above roughly 40%, a simultaneous decline in Supply in Profit, and price remaining elevated relative to realized value. When these conditions align, they have typically marked the beginning of structural weakening, not a reset before another leg higher. The present setup fits this historical pattern. Supply in Loss has moved decisively above the 40% threshold, while profitable supply is gradually contracting. This shift is occurring without widespread panic or capitulation. Indicating that losses are spreading across the supply in a controlled but persistent manner. This dynamic suggests a slow deterioration in market health, as more participants hold BTC at a loss while price struggles to recover meaningfully. Related Reading: Ethereum Trades At A Historical Accumulation Level: Can Bulls Hold $2,600 In past cycles, durable market bottoms only formed after Supply in Loss expanded further, usually alongside deeper price compression and a clearer capitulation phase. At current levels, those conditions have not yet been fully met. As a result, the data implies that the market is still in a transitional phase. This no longer resembles a mid-cycle dip. On-chain signals point to Bitcoin entering a bear market structure, with downside risk remaining unresolved until stronger signs of capitulation or structural stabilization emerge. Bitcoin Higher Timeframe Confirms Bearish Market Structure Bitcoin’s price structure has deteriorated sharply on the higher time frame, as shown by the 3-day chart. After months of consolidation below the prior all-time highs, BTC has now broken decisively below the $80K psychological level, with the latest close around $77,500. This move confirms a loss of medium-term support and marks a clear transition from distribution into downside continuation. From a trend perspective, price has slipped below the 50-period and 100-period moving averages, both of which are now rolling over. The 200-period moving average, still rising but flattening near the mid-$80K area, failed to act as durable support and now represents a major overhead resistance zone. Historically, sustained trading below these averages signals weakening trend strength and reduced probability of immediate trend recovery. Related Reading: XRP Risk-Adjusted Returns Signal Consolidation Rather Than Trend Formation – Details The recent sell-off also stands out for its impulsive character. Large bearish candles with limited lower wicks suggest aggressive selling pressure rather than orderly consolidation. Volume expanded on the breakdown, reinforcing the validity of the move and indicating forced exits rather than passive rebalancing. Structurally, the market is now forming lower highs and lower lows on this timeframe. Unless BTC can quickly reclaim the $80K–$85K region, downside risk remains dominant. In this context, the chart supports a bearish continuation. At best, a prolonged basing phase precedes any meaningful recovery attempt. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com 

On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Supply in Loss indicator has witnessed a shift in direction that has often led into bearish phases in past cycles. 365-Day SMA Of The Bitcoin Supply In Loss Has Been Rising Recently As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin Supply in Loss has started to trend up again. This metric measures, as its name suggests, the percentage of the total BTC circulating supply that’s currently being held at some net unrealized loss. Related Reading: Next Ethereum Move Hinges On This Level, Says Glassnode Analyst The indicator works by scanning through the transaction history of each token in circulation to determine the price at which it was last transacted on the network. If this previous transaction value for any coin was greater than the latest spot price, then the metric assumes that particular token to be underwater. The Supply in Loss adds up all coins falling in this category and finds what part of the supply they make up for. A counterpart metric known as the Supply in Profit tracks the supply of the opposite type. Since the total supply must add up to a 100%, however, the Supply in Profit is simply equal to the Supply in Loss subtracted from 100. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 365-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Supply in Loss over the cryptocurrency’s history: As displayed in the above graph, the 365-day SMA Bitcoin Supply in Loss plummeted to the lowest point for the cycle back in October. This plunge came as the asset rallied to a new all-time high (ATH) beyond the $126,000 level. Since the low, however, the indictor has witnessed a rapid climb, a consequence of the bearish momentum that BTC has faced following its ATH. So far, the indicator hasn’t risen to a significant level compared to past capitulation levels, but the change in direction has been solidifying itself. “Historically, this shift has marked the early phase of bear markets, when losses begin to spread beyond short-term holders and gradually reach longer-term participants,” explained the quant. From the chart, it’s visible that bearish transitions in past cycles occurred as the indicator shot up, with a high value in it coinciding with the cycle bottom. Related Reading: Bitcoin Social Interest Fades As Retail Chases Gold, Silver Hype Whether the recent reversal in the Supply in Loss is the beginning of something similar only remains to be seen. Earlier in this cycle, an upward turn in the indicator ended up only being temporary, as the H1-2025 drawdown gave way to renewed bullish momentum rather than a prolonged bear phase. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $89,000, up over 1% in the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com