Bitcoin and altcoins are falling today, extended selloff after the Federal Reserve delivered its latest policy decision, keeping interest rates unchanged. While the move itself was widely expected, markets reacted to the absence of fresh dovish signals, prompting traders to reduce risk across speculative assets. Bitcoin slipped as selling pressure resurfaced near key resistance, dragging …
Real Vision founder Raoul Pal said the crypto market’s weakness isn’t a sign the bull run is over. It just hasn’t started yet. The macro investor gave a specific timeline: crypto prices should start moving by end of February 2026. But first, he explained what’s been holding the market back in a recent video on …
A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how Bitcoin has recently formed a technical crossover that preceded bearish shifts in the past. Bitcoin Has Seen A Death Cross Between 21-Day & 50-Day SMAs In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has shared a daily price chart for Bitcoin showcasing a crossover between two simple moving averages (SMAs) that the asset has gone through recently. An SMA is a statistical tool that averages a quantity over a given period of time and that, as its name suggests, updates in time with the quantity. This tool can be useful for studying long-term trends, as it smooths out the graph by eliminating short-term fluctuations. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Turns Upward—Early Bear Market Signal? SMAs can be taken over any window, but in the context of the current topic, two specific periods are of relevance: 21-day and 50-day. Below is the chart posted by Martinez that shows the trend in these SMAs for Bitcoin over the past decade. From the graph, it’s visible that the daily Bitcoin price has seen its 21-day SMA fall below the 50-day one recently. In the past, this crossover has tended to act as a “death cross” for the cryptocurrency, with its price plunging after the signal’s appearance. In the chart, the analyst has highlighted the previous instances of this death cross. It would appear that the asset experienced drawdowns ranging between 54% and 69% following the crossover. The most recent occurrence of the crossover was in 2022, leading into a price decline of almost 66% to the bear market bottom. Given the past pattern, it only remains to be seen whether the 21-day SMA going below the 50-day SMA will prove to be bearish for Bitcoin this time. In the scenario that bearish momentum does follow for the asset, it could be at risk of breaching below an on-chain level known as the Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio. This level represents the ratio between two on-chain indicators: the Realized Price and Liveliness. The first of these tracks the cost basis of the average investor or address on the Bitcoin blockchain, while the latter encapsulates the spending/HODLing behavior of long-term investors. As Martinez has highlighted in another X post, Bitcoin has been trading near the Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio recently. As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio is situated around $87,500 right now. BTC briefly fell below this mark during the Sunday dip, but the coin has since recovered back above it. Related Reading: Next Ethereum Move Hinges On This Level, Says Glassnode Analyst “The last time Bitcoin $BTC fell below the Realized Price-to-Liveliness Ratio, it moved toward the Realized Price,” noted the analyst. Currently, the Realized Price is located at $56,000. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $89,500, up 2% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Crypto research firm CryptoQuant has flagged a potentially troubling development for Bitcoin (BTC) and the wider digital asset market, pointing to an early warning signal that has historically appeared ahead of prolonged downturns. In a report released Wednesday, the firm noted that Bitcoin’s supply in loss metric has begun to rise again, a shift that has often marked the early stages of past bear markets. Possible Shift Toward Bear Market Structure According to analysis by CryptoQuant contributor Woominkyu, increases in supply held at a loss tend to signal that market weakness is spreading beyond short‑term traders and gradually affecting longer‑term holders. In previous market cycles, including 2014, 2018, and 2022, this indicator started trending upward well before prices reached their eventual lows. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Braces For FOMC Volatility As History Shows Major Post‑Fed Sell‑Offs During those periods, Bitcoin prices continued to decline even after the metric turned higher, with true market bottoms forming only once supply in loss expanded much further and broader capitulation set in. At present, CryptoQuant notes that Bitcoin’s supply in loss remains well below levels typically associated with full market capitulation. However, the change in direction itself is significant. The analysts say it suggests the market may be shifting into a bearish structural phase, rather than experiencing a brief correction within an ongoing bull market. Bitcoin’s recent price action appears to reflect that uncertainty. The asset is currently trading around $89,700 and has struggled to reclaim the key $90,000 level as support. This follows a steady decline from earlier yearly-highs near $98,000, where upward momentum faded as buying pressure weakened and gains recorded at the start of the year were fully erased. US Dollar Tests Historic Zone For Bitcoin Rallies Despite these cautionary signals, not all analysts believe the outlook is entirely negative. Analysts at Bull Theory have highlighted a potentially bullish catalyst that could emerge in the months ahead, centered on movements in the US dollar. In a recent post on social media platform X (previously Twitter) the firm pointed out that the US Dollar Index is testing the same zone that preceded major Bitcoin bull runs in both 2017 and 2021. According to their analysis, the Dollar Index has broken below a long‑term trendline that has held for roughly 16 years and is now hovering around the critical level of 96. Historically, periods when the DXY fell below 96 and remained there coincided with strong Bitcoin rallies. Related Reading: Crypto Funds Funneled To Money Launderers Hit $82 Billion, According To Chainalysis As seen in the chart below, in mid‑2017, the index dropped under that level, after which Bitcoin surged nearly eightfold over the following five to six months. A similar pattern played out during the 2020 pandemic era. When a wave of liquidity entered financial markets at the time, the DXY again slipped below 96, and Bitcoin went on to rise roughly seven times over the next seven to eight months. During that same period, Ethereum (ETH) and many altcoins posted gains of tenfold or more. For now, the market sits at a crossroads. On‑chain data points to early bear‑market dynamics, while macro signals linked to the US dollar offer a counter‑narrative that could favor renewed strength. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s unusually subdued options pricing and weak month-to-date activity are setting up what ProCap CIO and Bitwise adviser Jeff Park calls a dangerous asymmetry: upside momentum is unlikely without volatility, and the longer BTC stays “quiet,” the more violent the eventual move could be. In a post via X on Jan.27, Park described the current tape as “still a trader’s market,” arguing that low implied volatility and thin participation are a poor foundation for a clean grind higher. “It is very unlikely for Bitcoin to find momentum to the upside without experiencing significantly higher volatility,” he wrote. “The fact that we are at ~38 IV combined with horrible volume MTD gives me pause (lower than ANY month of 2025, and especially bad for January in general) when you can see what the metals complex is doing. You literally can’t imagine a worse set up for disappointment.” What Happened In Silver And Why It Could Repeat For Bitcoin Park’s reference point is a silver market that has gone from strong to disorderly. Silver prices have surged above $117 per ounce on Monday, with reports pointing to a speculative bid layered on top of tight physical conditions and heavy retail participation via bars, coins, and physically backed ETFs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Won’t Break Out Until The Fed Steps Into Yen/JGB Chaos: Arthur Hayes The move also featured a sharp single-day jump. On Jan. 26, the most-active silver futures contract rose 14%, the largest one-day gain since 1985. That price action coincided with a staggering surge in trading and options activity across silver vehicles. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted the scale: “WHOA: The volume in the SLV is $32b.. that 15x its avg and by far the most volume of any security on the planet. For context, SPY is $24b, NVDA and TSLA $16b. Can’t remember the last time something so relatively small took over like this. Game Stop maybe.” WHOA: The volume in the $SLV is $32b.. that 15x its avg and by far the most volume of any security on the planet. For context, $SPY is $24b, $NVDA and $TSLA $16b. Can’t remember the last time something so relatively small took over like this. Game Stop maybe. pic.twitter.com/s6lVajUq4J — Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) January 26, 2026 He later added that SLV “ended up trading $40b worth of shares [on Monday],” adding: “To put that into perspective, that’s more than it traded in all of Q1 last year. Jan + Feb +Mar = $35b. Options volume also in stratosphere. It’s already done $1.5b in pre-market, which is 3x more than any other ETF, 5x more than Tesla, Nvidia. Again, reminds me of Game Stop in its how is this even possible-ness.” “Paper” Exposure As An Accelerant A common crypto refrain is that “synthetic” or “paper” bitcoin suppresses spot price. Park argued the opposite dynamic is often underappreciated and he used silver to illustrate how leverage and market structure can turn into the catalyst. Related Reading: Expert Who Nailed The Bitcoin Top Now Says Buy At These Levels “People often blame incorrectly that ‘synthetic/paper’ bitcoin is the cause of price suppression,” Park wrote. “I have long argued it is quite the opposite, which you can see how it manifests in silver below- Silver didn’t have a 6-sigma event because the spot market was so vibrant.” In his telling, silver’s melt-up wasn’t driven by orderly spot demand; it was driven by the “shenanigans” inside financialized exposure. “Silver’s record-setting meltup comes from all the shenanigans behind ‘paper silver’ where margin rules, leveraged instruments and vehicles, and liquidity and maturity transformation mismatches create tremendous pressure on breaking points where no physical supply can be introduced fast enough to counter the velocity of paper supply,” he said. “For Park, the takeaway is directional but not calendar-specific. “To root for Bitcoin is to root for its volatility,” he wrote. “Anyone who tells you otherwise does not understand the fundamentals of the commodities market … It may not be today or yet tomorrow, but eventually Bitcoin is going to rip many faces off. Volatility or bust.” At press time, BTC traded at $89,430. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Flare Networks says it has turned a chunk of XRP from an idle holding into something that can earn returns. The moves are recent and the numbers are concrete enough to grab attention, yet they raise as many questions as they answer. Related Reading: PayPal Survey: 4 In 10 US Merchants Now Accept Crypto Flare Bridging And Activity According to Flare, roughly 91.69 million XRP have been bridged onto its network. About 75% of that stock is said to be actively put to work onchain. Reports say the Flare vault system shows 90.55 million XRP in its core vault after inflows and outflows were counted, and the FXRP wrapper is reported to hold 91.67 million tokens with a 100% reserve ratio. The new Flare XRP Yield Vault crossed $10.54 million in TVL inside 30 days. That last figure is quick growth for a product aimed at XRP holders who until now had few options for earning yield. How @FlareNetworks is becoming the center of XRP DeFi: 91M+ XRP bridged. 75%+ deployed onchain. And now: the Flare XRP Yield Vault powered by @upshift_fi ’s modular vault infrastructure, bringing automated strategy execution, risk frameworks, and scalable yield to XRP for the… pic.twitter.com/VwnnCJVldC — Flare ☀️ (@FlareNetworks) January 27, 2026 High Deployment Rate The high deployment rate suggests people are not simply parking assets to chase an easy bonus. Activity has been recorded across a set of strategies and the wrapped FXRP is being moved into other protocols. That activity has been supported by a vault system built by Upshift, which automates yield processes and applies predefined risk controls. Reports indicate that returns are generated through a mix of onchain strategies, though details on how those yields may change over time have not been fully outlined. Based on past market patterns, yield levels across crypto platforms have tended to decline once incentive programs are reduced. At the same time, the use of bridges and smart contracts introduces added technical complexity, which has previously led to disruptions and losses across the sector. Where The Yield Comes From Reports note that other firms have adopted similar models. Axelar and Hex Trust are among those that issued wrapped XRP tools that earn returns when deployed. That means multiple places are trying to make XRP productive. Related Reading: Record Pain: Bitcoin Investors Suffer $4.5B Loss, Most In 3 Years At the same time, Ripple — the company closely tied to XRP — has been active on the business side: a $500 million funding round was reported in November, and regulatory steps in the UK were announced in January, including an Electronic Money Institution license and cryptoasset registration. GTreasury, acquired by Ripple for $1 billion in October, launched a product called Ripple Treasury this month. These moves add weight to the wider story but do not change the mechanics of how onchain yield is created or kept. Featured image from Yahoo Finance, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above $89,500 but failed above $90,000. BTC is declining and might dip further if it breaks $88,000. Bitcoin failed to remain above $90,000 and started another decline. The price is trading above $88,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a rising channel forming with support at $88,100 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip further if it trades below the $88,000 and $87,500 levels. Bitcoin Price Faces Rejection Bitcoin price remained stable above the $88,000 support. BTC formed a base and recently started a recovery wave above the $88,500 level. The price climbed above the $89,000 and $89,500 levels. There was a move above the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $91,098 swing high to the $86,007 low. The bulls even pushed the price above $90,000 but they failed to keep the price in a positive zone. There was a fresh decline below $89,000. Bitcoin is now trading above $88,200 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. Besides, there is a rising channel forming with support at $88,100 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $88,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $89,150 level. The first key resistance is near the $89,800 level. A close above the $89,800 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $90,250 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $91,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $92,000 and $92,500. Another Rejection In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $89,150 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $88,200 level. The first major support is near the $88,000 level. The next support is now near the $87,200 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $87,000 support in the near term. The main support sits at $86,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $88,200, followed by $87,000. Major Resistance Levels – $89,150 and $89,800.
Reports note that retail investors have been hopping from one market to another this month, following whatever asset is moving the most. Social chatter about gold and silver has outpaced crypto on many days, based on Santiment’s social data. That doesn’t mean crypto is dead. Far from it. But right now the spotlight has been on metals, and chatter often moves faster than prices. Related Reading: Record Pain: Bitcoin Investors Suffer $4.5B Loss, Most In 3 Years Retail Chatter Follows Price Moves According to Santiment, gold jumped in interest during the second week of January when it set fresh highs. Social feeds lit up. Traders talked about gains, charts, and quick flips. Then, around Jan. 19 to Jan. 22, crypto briefly reclaimed attention as some traders looked to buy dips in falling markets. The pattern shows how fast attention can switch. One minute one market rules the feeds. The next minute another does. ???? Are crypto traders & investors checked out? Based on social data across crypto social media circles, the focus in January has turned from: ???? Week 1: Minimal discourse as traders return from holidays (Crypto rises while traders sleep) ???? Week 2: Gold discussions erupt as the… pic.twitter.com/U5X0VzAGPb — Santiment (@santimentfeed) January 26, 2026 Search Trends Paint A Shifting Picture Based on Google Trends data, crypto searches hit a high point on Jan. 21, with Bitcoin scoring 100 on one day and dipping to lower levels over the weekend. Silver’s search interest peaked on Jan. 22. Reports note people were searching for phrases like “Silver price today,” “best crypto,” and “Bitcoin price.” That mix suggests casual users and new traders are toggling between simple how-to queries and price checks, depending on which asset is making headlines. Silver’s Wild Ride Warns Of Hype Santiment’s team pointed to a dramatic move in silver where prices briefly jumped above $117 and then plunged to below $102 within a couple of hours. That kind of swing is a classic sign of strong FOMO followed by fast selling. Retail excitement can lift a price quickly. It can also reverse it just as fast. Many traders who piled in at the peak likely felt the sting when the pullback came. Parallels Between Metals And Crypto Coach JV, a popular XRP commentator, argued that the forces acting on silver and gold could also shape Bitcoin and XRP when the same pressures build in those markets. What’s happening in silver will happen to Bitcoin and XRP. Paper markets suppress price… until reality breaks them. No timeline. No hype. When it snaps, it won’t rise slowly; it will reprice violently. — Coach, JV (@Coachjv_) January 26, 2026 He warned that if paper markets finally loosen their grip, repricing could be sharp. No dates were offered. The point was clear: a sudden shift can move prices quickly and surprise a lot of people. Related Reading: PayPal Survey: 4 In 10 US Merchants Now Accept Crypto Short-term traders will watch social feeds and search trends closely. Long-term investors should be aware that spikes driven by hype rarely end quietly. While the current buzz is about precious metals, history shows attention can swing back to crypto fast — sometimes in as little as a few days. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
On-chain data shows the Bitcoin Supply in Loss indicator has witnessed a shift in direction that has often led into bearish phases in past cycles. 365-Day SMA Of The Bitcoin Supply In Loss Has Been Rising Recently As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin Supply in Loss has started to trend up again. This metric measures, as its name suggests, the percentage of the total BTC circulating supply that’s currently being held at some net unrealized loss. Related Reading: Next Ethereum Move Hinges On This Level, Says Glassnode Analyst The indicator works by scanning through the transaction history of each token in circulation to determine the price at which it was last transacted on the network. If this previous transaction value for any coin was greater than the latest spot price, then the metric assumes that particular token to be underwater. The Supply in Loss adds up all coins falling in this category and finds what part of the supply they make up for. A counterpart metric known as the Supply in Profit tracks the supply of the opposite type. Since the total supply must add up to a 100%, however, the Supply in Profit is simply equal to the Supply in Loss subtracted from 100. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the 365-day simple moving average (SMA) of the Bitcoin Supply in Loss over the cryptocurrency’s history: As displayed in the above graph, the 365-day SMA Bitcoin Supply in Loss plummeted to the lowest point for the cycle back in October. This plunge came as the asset rallied to a new all-time high (ATH) beyond the $126,000 level. Since the low, however, the indictor has witnessed a rapid climb, a consequence of the bearish momentum that BTC has faced following its ATH. So far, the indicator hasn’t risen to a significant level compared to past capitulation levels, but the change in direction has been solidifying itself. “Historically, this shift has marked the early phase of bear markets, when losses begin to spread beyond short-term holders and gradually reach longer-term participants,” explained the quant. From the chart, it’s visible that bearish transitions in past cycles occurred as the indicator shot up, with a high value in it coinciding with the cycle bottom. Related Reading: Bitcoin Social Interest Fades As Retail Chases Gold, Silver Hype Whether the recent reversal in the Supply in Loss is the beginning of something similar only remains to be seen. Earlier in this cycle, an upward turn in the indicator ended up only being temporary, as the H1-2025 drawdown gave way to renewed bullish momentum rather than a prolonged bear phase. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $89,000, up over 1% in the last 24 hours. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
The Federal Reserve issued its first FOMC statement for 2026 today, January 28. The Fed’s announcement aligned with predictions made on Polymarket and Kalshi, thus adding bearish pressure on Bitcoin (BTC) amid a bullish bonanza in the precious metals industry. Federal Reserve Ends Rate-Cut Streaks After initiating three rate cuts in 2025, the Fed has …
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
South Dakota has a new bill on the table that would let the state put up to 10% of certain public funds into Bitcoin. Reports say Rep. Logan Manhart filed House Bill 1155 this week, restarting an effort that stalled last year. Related Reading: PayPal Survey: 4 In 10 US Merchants Now Accept Crypto The measure would change state investment rules to give the State Investment Council explicit authority to hold Bitcoin in its portfolio. Lawmaker Files Bill For Bitcoin Reserve According to filings and public posts, Manhart’s proposal mirrors a move he tried in 2025 and keeps a clear cap on exposure: 10% of the moneys made available for investment. The bill text says the limit “may not exceed 10%” and lays out options for how the exposure could be taken, including direct holdings or regulated products. A South Dakota lawmaker is reviving a push to bring bitcoin into state finances. Republican Rep. Logan Manhart introduced House Bill 1155, which would allow the state to invest up to 10% of eligible public funds in bitcoin. It’s a renewed effort after a similar bill stalled… pic.twitter.com/hPBbiSB6zT — Timmy Shen (@timmyhmshen) January 28, 2026 The new push comes after last year’s proposal was deferred in committee. Reports note that HB 1202 was put aside during the 2025 session and did not advance, and Manhart signaled he would try again in 2026. That history matters because it shows the idea has support in some corners but also faces practical and political hurdles. What The Bill Allows Based on reports, the bill not only sets a 10% ceiling but also tries to handle custody and security concerns. It mentions requirements such as using qualified custodians or exchange-traded products, encrypted storage, and multi-signature controls. Those rules are aimed at lowering the risks that come with holding a volatile asset with public money. Supporters say Bitcoin could act as a hedge and add a new type of asset to the state’s mix. Opponents point to volatility and possible legal or accounting issues when state funds are used in this way. Related Reading: Record Pain: Bitcoin Investors Suffer $4.5B Loss, Most In 3 Years The debate will likely hinge on how the State Investment Council evaluates risk and which funds would be considered “eligible” under the bill’s language. Political And Financial Pushback There is practical pushback from fiscal watchdogs and some lawmakers who worry about public perception. Money managed for things like pensions carries duty of care. That duty was stressed last session and will be raised again now that the bill is back. The point has been made plainly and will shape committee hearings. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Macro investor Raoul Pal says Bitcoin’s recent underperformance compared to gold is not unusual and could actually be setting the stage for a strong move later. Speaking about the long-running Bitcoin–gold comparison, Pal explained that gold typically moves first, while Bitcoin tends to catch up later in the cycle. According to him, this is not …
The Hyperliquid price is seeing renewed bullish momentum, recording double gains over the last week and bucking the broader crypto market downtrend. This comes thanks to bullish fundamentals in the token’s ecosystem, including a rise in open interest on the decentralized exchange (DEX). Why The Hyperliquid Price Is Rising The Hyperliquid price is up over 58% in the last seven days, outpacing the broader crypto market as Bitcoin trades just below the psychological $90,000 level. This price surge has come on the back of a rise in Hyperliquid’s HIP-3 open interest. The DEX announced in an X post that open interest reached an all-time high of $790 million, driven recently by a surge in commodities trading. Related Reading: XRP, HBAR, And Litecoin: Pundit Highlights Coins To Watch In 2026 The exchange added that HIP-3’s open interest has been hitting new all-time highs each week, after being just $260 million a month ago. HIP-3 enables anyone to launch a custom perpetual market for crypto, commodities such as gold and silver, and other assets such as stocks. Thanks to this upgrade, the DEX is seeing increased trading activity, which has led to a surge in the Hyperliquid price. Notably, the Hyperliquid price has benefited from the precious metals boom, with the silver perpetuals market on the DEX seeing massive trading activity. CoinGecko data shows that the Silver perpetuals market is the third-largest traded in the last 24 hours, behind Bitcoin and Ethereum, with a trading volume of just over $1 billion. In an X post, Hyperliquid’s co-founder Jeff Yan noted that the DEX has achieved an important milestone of becoming the most liquid venue for crypto price discovery in the world. This came as he highlighted the order books for BTC perps on Binance and his DEX. He added that Hyperliquid has also grown to become the most liquid venue for perps on traditional-finance (TradFi) assets. Little Selling Pressure And Huge Buying Pressure For HYPE In an X post, Hyperliquid stakeholder Henrik noted that the Hyperliquid price is also rising as major selling pressure is gone. On the other hand, HYPE is seeing significant demand, including from digital asset treasuring companies such as Hyperliquid Strategies. He further highlighted the imminent Kraken HYPE listing, which is also bullish for the token. Meanwhile, Henrik stated that Hyperliquid dominates all trading metrics, including volume and open interest. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Solana Prices Are Still Crashing Hard The increase in the DEX’s trading activity is also significant and bullish for the Hyperliquid price, as the majority of fees earned on the protocol are directed to the Assistance Fund, which is used to buy back HYPE tokens on the open market. DeFiLlama data shows that the DEX is currently among the top five protocols by fees generated over the last 24 hours. At the time of writing, the Hyperliquid price is at around $34, up over 27% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Medium, chart from Tradingview.com
A top analyst from crypto analytics firm Santiment says the crypto market is going through a quiet but important phase, even as gold and silver steal the spotlight. Brian, an analyst at Santiment, explained that Bitcoin, Ethereum, and XRP are not collapsing. Instead, they are being ignored while money flows into precious metals due to …
As per recent glassnode’s report, BTC price has entered Q1 2026 on a much steadier footing after the leverage-heavy unwind seen in October 2025, with bitcoin trading below 29% from its prior peak above $125,000 and consolidating near key levels. While macro conditions still remain supportive, and even multiple on-chain metrics suggest that the market …
BlackRock is moving deeper into the “Bitcoin as a portfolio sleeve” trade, this time by packaging the flagship digital asset's inherent volatility into distributable income. On Jan. 23, the $14 trillion asset management firm filed a registration statement for the iShares Bitcoin Premium Income ETF. This is a fund designed to track BTC's price (via […]
The post BlackRock is cannibalizing Bitcoin gains for “income” in a move that could leave retail investors behind during rallies appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Strive's rapid Bitcoin accumulation highlights its strategic financial maneuvering, potentially influencing market dynamics and investor confidence.
The post Strive surpasses CleanSpark to become 10th-largest Bitcoin holder after 334 BTC purchase appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The Bitcoin and Ethereum prices rallied after reports of the US dollar crashing spread across the market. Recent data show that the US dollar has fallen to its lowest level in four years, raising concerns about the strength of the world’s dominant reserve currency. As the dollar weakens, market players are beginning to shift attention to alternative assets such as precious metals and digital currencies, including BTC, which is increasingly viewed as a potential hedge against rising inflation and currency depreciation. US Dollar Falls To Lows Not Seen In 4 Years New reports from Bloomberg highlight the relentless slide in the US dollar index (DXY) over recent weeks, with the price tumbling further after President Donald Trump’s comments on the currency’s performance. Sources reveal that Trump said the dollar is “doing great,” despite its ongoing downturn. Related Reading: Analyst Says Chainlink Price Could Crash 50% If This Level Fails Traders interpreted the President’s seemingly indifferent response to the declining dollar as a signal that the slide could continue, triggering further selling pressure. Data from the web-based stock market research platform Finviz shows that, as of writing, the US dollar index has crashed to 95.92 from a previous level near 100. This marks its weakest level in nearly four years, specifically since 2022. Additionally, Bloomberg reported that its Dollar Spot Index also recorded its lowest four-day decline since Trump announced new tariffs in April 2025. Traders in the $9.5 trillion per-day currency markets are also increasingly betting that the dollar could decline further, as US policy risks weigh on the world’s primary reserve currency. Amidst the decline in the US dollar index, cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin and Ethereum are posting gains. BTC’s price rose above $89,000, while Ethereum has climbed more than 3% to reach above $3,000, in the past 24 hours. This simultaneous rally in cryptocurrencies alongside the weakening US dollar suggests that investors may be shifting capital to risk-on assets. Market analyst ‘Master of Crypto’ recently outlined several reasons behind the continued decline in the weakening US dollar in a post on X. He explained that large budget deficits, the FED’s challenge of balancing inflation control with job market stability, steady bond supply, and FX hedging activities are keeping the US dollar near recent lows. According to him, in this type of market environment, holding idle cash becomes a significant risk for investors. Related Reading: Here’s How Much XRP Ripple Execs Have Dumped So Far Possible Implications For The Bitcoin And Ethereum Price Historically, periods of US dollar weakness have often coincided with rallies in Bitcoin, and other cryptocurrencies. When the dollar declines, investors sometimes seek alternative assets to preserve value. This can increase demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum, which are viewed by many as alternative stores of value and risk-on assets. While this correlation is not a clear indication of a potential cryptocurrency rally, analysts like ‘Milk Road Macro’ suggest that the declining dollar could help support a broader crypto market recovery. He said that as the dollar weakens, capital will flow into precious metals like gold and silver. Soon after, this same capital is expected to rotate into BTC, potentially fueling a price rebound. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
The US dollar slid to a four-year low, while gold and silver pushed deeper into record territory as Bitcoin attempted to recliam the $90,000 level. During the past day, the dollar index, a gauge of the greenback against major peers, touched 95.566, its weakest level since February 2022, after President Donald Trump dismissed concerns about […]
The post After this steep dollar plunge will Bitcoin join the Gold rush or succumb to a risk-off reality? appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Arthur Hayes says Bitcoin’s next leg higher is less about crypto-specific catalysts and more about whether US policymakers are forced to respond to mounting stress in Japan’s currency and government bond markets. stress he argues will ultimately translate into fresh dollar liquidity. In his latest essay, “Woomph,” published Wednesday, Hayes frames the recent yen weakness and a selloff in long-dated Japanese government bonds (JGBs) as the kind of systemic “alarm sound” that precedes official intervention. “The financial markets went woomph as the yen weakened and JGB prices collapsed,” he wrote. “Therefore, analyzing the fragility that the yen and JGB injects into global markets at this juncture is extremely important. Will a meltdown of the yen and JGB markets cause some sort of money printing by the BOJ or the Fed? The answer is yes, and this essay will explain the mechanics of the said intervention that was foreshadowed last Friday.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Social Interest Fades As Retail Chases Gold, Silver Hype Hayes lays out a step-by-step scenario in which the New York Fed expands bank reserves, sells dollars for yen, and then deploys that yen into JGB purchases, effectively stabilizing both USD/JPY and Japan’s long-end yields while warehousing FX and duration risk on the Fed’s balance sheet. In his telling, the signature will be visible in a specific line item: “Foreign Currency Denominated Assets” on the Fed’s weekly H.4.1 balance sheet release. If that figure grows rapidly, Hayes argues it would suggest the Fed has begun accumulating foreign-currency assets, potentially JGBs, consistent with the intervention pathway he describes. The policy motive, he adds, is not charity. Hayes points to Japan’s large stock of foreign assets and its role as a major holder of US Treasuries, arguing that rising JGB yields could pull Japanese capital home and pressure US borrowing costs. Japanese policy debates over yen weakness and the BOJ’s tightening path, and the BOJ itself held its policy rate at 0.75% on January 23. Hayes centers on what he calls a deliberately telegraphed signal: market chatter that US officials had “checked prices” with Wall Street dealers, language traders often interpret as a precursor to FX intervention. The Financial Times reported that a US “rate check” helped drive a sharp yen move and stoked speculation about coordinated action. Related Reading: Expert Who Nailed The Bitcoin Top Now Says Buy At These Levels He also suggests the BOJ’s decision to stand pat, despite what he characterizes as a market demanding a stronger defense of the yen and the bond market, increased the odds of US help. Japan’s political backdrop matters here too: Sanae Takaichi dissolved parliament and set a snap election for February 8, a move widely covered in international media in recent days. Why Hayes Ties It Back To Bitcoin For Hayes, the Japan stress story is ultimately a liquidity story and he argues Bitcoin remains tethered to the direction of the Fed’s balance sheet. “This discussion of Japanese financial markets is important because for Bitcoin to exit its sideways funk it needs a healthy dose of money printing,” he wrote. “What I will present is a theory which the actual flow of money through the corroded veins of the global monetary system doesn’t support yet. As time progresses, I will monitor the changes in certain line items on the Fed’s balance sheet in order to validate my hypothesis.” In the essay, he also flags a shorter-term complication: a rapidly strengthening yen has historically aligned with risk-off positioning as leveraged investors unwind yen-funded trades, dynamics he says can drag on Bitcoin before any liquidity impulse arrives. Hayes’ tactical conclusion is to stay patient until the balance-sheet evidence arrives. He says he exited levered Bitcoin proxies, including Strategy (MSTR) and Japan-listed Metaplanet, ahead of the yen move, and would consider re-entering if the “Foreign Currency Denominated Assets” line item starts rising sharply. Moreover, he writes that his fund Maelstrom is continuing to add to Zcash (ZEC), while keeping other “quality DeFi” positions unchanged and only adding further if intervention-driven balance sheet growth becomes visible. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $89,137. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
A rising share of shops in the US are now taking crypto at checkout. That shift is small in some places and big in others, but it is real. Reports say that roughly four in 10 US merchants accept cryptocurrency today, and customer interest is a clear reason why. Related Reading: Record Pain: Bitcoin Investors Suffer $4.5B Loss, Most In 3 Years Merchant Demand Is Rising According to a new survey from PayPal and the National Cryptocurrency Association, about 39% of merchants have added crypto as a payment option. Many of those firms say they hear from buyers about crypto use on a regular basis. Reports note that 88% of merchants have gotten questions about paying with crypto, and 69% say they see demand at least once a month. Also, 84% of respondents think crypto payments will be common within five years, which shows a lot of business leaders expect wider use soon. Who’s Accepting Crypto Adoption is uneven. Big companies with annual revenue above $500 million lead the pack, with roughly 50% accepting crypto. Smaller shops lag at about 34%, while midsize firms sit near 32%. Travel and hospitality, gaming and digital goods, and higher-end retail are among the sectors pushing crypto forward. These markets often sell online or to tech-savvy buyers, so it makes sense they’d move faster. Crypto’s Role In Sales For merchants that already accept digital assets, crypto is not just an occasional trickle. Reports say digital assets account for over a quarter of sales for some of those sellers. Around 72% of current crypto-accepting merchants said their crypto sales grew over the past year. That kind of growth helps explain why firms want to keep the option available. Barriers And Bright Spots A common complaint is that setup is still too hard. Surveys found about 90% of merchants would accept crypto if it were as easy as taking a credit card. Payment tools and integration are top concerns. Merchants list faster payments, the chance to reach new customers, and better buyer privacy as reasons to accept crypto. Younger generations are pushing the trend too — Millennials and Gen Z buyers are often the ones asking to use crypto at checkout. Related Reading: Bitcoin Influencers Get Spotlight In X’s New ‘Starterpacks’ What Merchants Want Next The survey was run in October 2025 and polled about 619 payment strategy decision-makers across retail, travel, and digital goods. PayPal and the NCA put the findings in a public release at the end of January 2026. Many executives say the next step is simpler tools and clearer rules. If merchants get easier on-ramps and reliable rails for settlements, acceptance could spread faster. Featured image from PayPal Newsroom, chart from TradingView
The Bitcoin price is under increasing pressure ahead of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, which has historically corresponded with big price movements in the market’s largest cryptocurrency. Rate Cut Odds Fade The Federal Reserve (Fed) is widely expected to leave interest rates unchanged at this meeting. Economists surveyed by financial data provider FactSet anticipate the federal funds rate — the benchmark rate banks use for overnight lending — will remain in the 3.5% to 3.75% range. Such a pause would follow three consecutive rate cuts delivered by the Fed toward the end of last year, a shift that initially fueled optimism across risk assets, including the Bitcoin price. Related Reading: XRP Outlook For 2026: AI Model Signals New Record Ahead — Can Price Reach $6? Despite that earlier momentum, the Bitcoin price has struggled to maintain its footing. Ahead of the FOMC decision, the cryptocurrency is trading near $87,780, roughly 30% below the all‑time highs reached last year. Market analyst Ali Martinez has pointed to Bitcoin’s historical behavior around FOMC meetings as a reason for caution. In a recent post on X (previously Twitter) Martinez highlighted that expectations for a January rate cut are extremely low, estimated at just 2.8%, signaling that meaningful policy easing is unlikely in the near term. That backdrop, he argues, has often set the stage for increased volatility for the Bitcoin price rather than sustained upside. Looking back at 2025, Martinez noted that Bitcoin reacted negatively after the vast majority of the Fed’s policy meetings. Of the eight FOMC decisions held during the year, seven were followed by notable declines for the Bitcoin price. The January meeting was followed by a 27% drop, March saw a 14% decline, June was down 8%, July slipped 6%, September fell 7%, October recorded a 29% pullback, and December ended with a 9% loss. The analysts noted that the only exception seen in the year came in May, when the Bitcoin price briefly rallied about 15% after the decision. Bitcoin Price Approaches Key Decision Zone From a technical and on‑chain perspective, analyst BitBull also sees the Bitcoin price approaching a critical moment. BitBull noted on social media that the asset has entered what she describes as a key on‑chain decision zone. At current levels, the Bitcoin price is trading almost exactly at the Active Investor Mean, estimated near $87,500. This level represents the average cost basis for active buyers, placing much of that capital at breakeven. Related Reading: Tether Reveals Massive Gold Accumulation In Q4: Adds 27 Tons To Reserves BitBull explained that pressure is building on both sides of the price. Above current levels, the short‑term holder cost basis sits near $96,500, meaning many recent buyers are already underwater. As a result, any upward move toward that zone could face selling pressure as traders look to exit at reduced losses. On the downside, the True Market Mean at around $80,700 has historically marked the boundary between a “routine correction and deeper structural weakness.” Further below, the realized price near $56,000 suggests that long‑term holders remain firmly in profit and largely unshaken by recent volatility. BitBull argues if the Bitcoin price can maintain support above the $87,500 level, it would indicate that active capital is defending its position and that broader market strength remains intact. A sustained break below that level, however, could open the door for a move toward $80,700. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
With the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled for today, cryptocurrency markets have entered a cautious phase of price volatility. Bitcoin (BTC), Ethereum (ETH) and XRP are trading in narrow ranges as traders pause for fresh direction from the U.S. central bank, widely expected to hold interest rates unchanged. The lack of near-term rate …
Crypto analyst Matt Hughes is arguing the global liquidity cycle is stretching well beyond its usual rhythm and that the extension is precisely why staying structurally bearish on crypto has been so punishing since 2020. Hughes, who posts as “The Great Mattsby,” said Monday that the cycle is “now ~6 years strong post-2020 with no clear peak in sight as of early 2026,” framing the move as something closer to a super-cycle than a standard 4–6 year expansion. What This Means For The Crypto Market Hughes’ core claim is that the traditional mechanism that ends liquidity cycles, central banks tightening into contraction, is being blunted by a mix of debt math, fragmented global money creation, and a capital-intensive investment boom that keeps pulling liquidity back into risk assets rather than allowing it to drain out. “The current global liquidity cycle is on track to become the longest ever, smashing past the typical 4–6 year patterns we’ve seen historically. Here’s why it’s stretching into a true super-cycle (now ~6 years strong post-2020 with no clear peak in sight as of early 2026):” Hughes wrote, before laying out the macro pillars of the thesis. First, Hughes points to the scale of leverage in the system as a constraint on normalization. “Global debt/GDP >350% creates a refinancing nightmare,” he wrote, arguing that each policy response has to be larger to prevent defaults and that aggressive tightening risks cascading sovereign and emerging-market stress. In that framework, policy makers are boxed into “perpetual support mode,” which delays the kind of contraction that would normally mark the end of a liquidity upswing. Related Reading: US Government Bitcoin, Crypto Theft Allegation Emerges Involving CEO’s Son Second, Hughes argues the cycle can run longer because global liquidity is no longer dominated by a single central bank. “The old dollar-only world is fragmenting,” he wrote, describing a “bifurcation of the global monetary system” in which liquidity creation outside the US can offset periods when the Federal Reserve is tighter. In his telling, a multipolar setup — spanning “BRICS nations,” China as a major credit creator, and alternative stores of value including “yuan, gold, crypto” — makes the overall system more resilient than past cycles that were more synchronized. Third, Hughes links the endurance of the cycle to an unusually large wave of capital demand. He calls AI, renewables, data centers, chip fabs, and blockchain “capital hogs,” arguing that the scale of funding required “demand & absorb endless liquidity.” He also ties that directly to market behavior, writing that risk assets like “IWM small-caps, ARKK innovation, BTC” pushing toward or near all-time highs is consistent with a cycle that is “closer to start than end.” Related Reading: Bitwise Says Crypto Has Likely Bottomed, Echoing Q1 2023 Setup Finally, Hughes emphasizes a policy bias toward preventing downturns. He described central banks as “hyper-proactive,” citing tools like forward guidance and yield curve control alongside tighter fiscal-monetary coordination. He also argued geopolitical priorities: reshoring, infrastructure, and the energy transition reinforce a stimulus-leaning posture, while traditional recession signals have been less reliable, pointing to a record-long 10y/3m inversion “without collapse.” Not everyone in the thread accepted the implication that the liquidity impulse remains cleanly supportive. A user posting as zam flagged a near-term risk: “My concern here is that Michael Howell says that liquidity momentum is slowing down considerably and that the liquidity is peaking very soon for this cycle. Any thoughts on that?” Hughes’ reply was succinct: “It can rotate into other assets as long as the economy is strong.” For crypto markets, the exchange captures the key tension: whether the cycle’s length is the dominant story, or whether a decelerating liquidity impulse changes the playbook via rotation rather than outright collapse. Hughes’ framing leaves the timing open-ended, asking followers whether the crypto peak arrives “at the end of 2026 or even longer,” while implicitly suggesting bears may need a clearer, system-wide rollover in liquidity, not just slower momentum, before the macro backdrop decisively turns. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $2.95 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The latest proposal closely mirrors House Bill 1202, which was introduced during the 2025 legislative session.
Reports note that Bitcoin holders realized large losses as prices slid, and the headline number is hard to ignore. According to on-chain tracker CryptoQuant, about $4.5 billion in net losses was recorded on January 23. Related Reading: Bitcoin Influencers Get Spotlight In X’s New ‘Starterpacks’ That number reflects moved coins sold at prices lower than when they were bought. It is a big transfer of paper pain into real losses. Realized Losses Spike While the dollar figure grabs attention, the meaning is what matters. Many who bought late in the run higher are choosing to sell rather than hold through more decline. That behavior shows frustration. Reports say the Net Realized Profit and Loss metric tallies this by comparing sell prices to purchase prices, and a negative reading this large signals a wave of capitulation. Some larger, long-term holders have been quieter. Their activity appears muted while smaller and mid-term participants make the day-to-day moves. According to analyst posts on CryptoQuant, this mix — quiet big holders and active smaller sellers — is common during corrective stretches. It does not automatically mean the market is broken; it means sentiment has shifted toward caution. $4.5 Billion in Realized Loss on Bitcoin “Highest amount of realized losses in three years. The last time this occurred in Bitcoin, the price was trading at $28,000 after a brief correction period that lasted about a year.” – By @gaah_im pic.twitter.com/OJ7bbL3RSC — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 26, 2026 Bitcoin Price Action Midway through the week, Bitcoin traded around the mid-$80,000s, well below the $90,000 mark that some investors had eyed as a key level. Market chatter shows traders watching macro cues like the US Federal Reserve and inflation data for guidance. Volatility has not disappeared; it has simply become more tied to broader economic signals than to isolated crypto headlines. Whale addresses appeared to step in at times, helping to hold local price floors. But many traders remain cautious. Reports note that geopolitical headlines can cause quick swings, yet the current movement looks more like slow digestion of profit and repositioning than explosive panic selling. Activity on spot exchanges and ETF flows has been variable, reflecting the mixed mood across the market. Related Reading: XRP Showing Strength, Analyst Points To $4 Potential Capitulation Has Come Before Similar loss spikes were seen in March 2023, when realized losses reached close to $6 billion, and in November 2022, when losses hit roughly $4.3 billion. These events were followed by consolidation and then eventual recovery. Based on reports from analytics firms and market observers, spikes in realized losses can mark the late stages of selling pressure, after which the market sometimes finds a base. Featured image from Pexel, chart from TradingView
Data shows social media interest has shifted away from Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency sector recently as interest in Gold and Silver has spiked. Crypto Social Volume Has Cooled Recently In a new post on X, analytics firm Santiment has talked about how the Social Volume has compared between the cryptocurrency market, Gold, and Silver recently. Related Reading: Stablecoin Market Cap Drops By $7 Billion—What It Means For Bitcoin The “Social Volume” is an indicator that tells us about the amount of discussion that a given term or topic is receiving on the major social media platforms. It does so by counting up the total number of posts/messages/threads on the platforms that contain unique mentions of the term. Retail traders outweigh all other types of investors in population, so social media discourse tends to be a reflection of their behavior. As such, a spike in Social Volume for a particular market signals retail interest in the space. Historically, crypto traders have shifted their attention between various sections like memecoins, AI, blue chips, etc. based on where hype is the greatest. The pattern has changed recently, however, as Santiment has explained, “now, retail is proving to be open to jumping sectors entirely, with social data showing how gold, silver, and even equities are getting more and more interest based on wherever the latest pumps appear.” Below is the chart for the Social Volume shared by the analytics firm that shows this trend in action. As displayed in the graph, social media users have seen their attention shift multiple times across January. In the first week, the Social Volume was muted for all markets, corresponding to a post-holidays lull. During the second week, Gold witnessed its Social Volume shoot high as its price reached new all-time highs. Bitcoin rose alongside this surge, but crypto Social Volume still didn’t budge much. In the third week, however, social media interest in digital assets saw a return as Bitcoin and other tokens retraced. This activity likely corresponded to traders trying to speculate about the bottom. Now, in the final week of January, Silver has taken the lead in social media talk, with Gold right behind it and interest in crypto at a low. The shift in retail attention has come as Silver has set new records. “Remember that when crypto retail begins FOMO’ing in, that’s generally where tops appear,” noted Santiment. This pattern was witnessed during Silver’s latest run to a new all-time high above $117, which was followed by a drop to $103 within hours as retail hype spiked on social media. Related Reading: XRP, Ethereum Now ‘Undervalued’ On MVRV, Says Santiment With the crypto Social Volume still sitting at relatively low levels, it would appear that the small traders currently don’t feel strongly about Bitcoin and company. Bitcoin Price Bitcoin has seen a bearish second half of January as its price has retraced back to $88,000. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price started a recovery wave above $88,000. BTC is slowly moving higher and might rise further if it clears $89,600. Bitcoin started a minor recovery wave above the $88,000 level. The price is trading above $88,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a rising channel forming with resistance at $89,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might recover further if it manages to settle above $89,600 and $90,000. Bitcoin Price Starts Recovery Bitcoin price remained stable above the $87,000 support. BTC formed a base and recently started a recovery wave above the $87,500 level. The price climbed above the $88,000 and $88,500 levels. There was a move above the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $91,098 swing high to the $86,007 low. The bulls even pushed the price above $89,000. Bitcoin is now trading above $88,500 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. If the price remains stable above $88,500, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $89,600 level. Besides, there is a rising channel forming with resistance at $89,600 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. The first key resistance is near the $90,000 level since it is close to the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $91,098 swing high to the $86,007 low. A close above the $90,000 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $90,500 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $91,200 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $92,000 and $92,500. Another Rejection In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $89,600 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $88,800 level. The first major support is near the $88,500 level. The next support is now near the $87,600 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $87,200 support in the near term. The main support sits at $86,000, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now gaining pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now above the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $88,500, followed by $87,200. Major Resistance Levels – $89,600 and $90,000.
Bitcoin is struggling to regain traction below the $88,000 level as fear and uncertainty continue to dominate market sentiment. After a volatile selloff, the price has stabilized, but confidence remains fragile, with traders closely watching whether current support can hold or if another leg lower is still ahead. The lack of a decisive rebound reflects a market caught between defensive positioning and cautious accumulation, where conviction on both sides remains limited. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks Below $87K As Political Risk Spikes – Liquidations Reveal The Real Driver Analyst Axel Adler highlighted a critical divergence developing beneath the surface. According to his analysis, the Market Pressure Index dropped to 30.54, marking a new 30-day low and falling below the previous extremes recorded on January 21 and January 25. Despite this surge in derivatives-related pressure, Bitcoin’s price barely reacted, holding steady around $88.3K. That disconnect between pressure and price is unusual and signals a moment of heightened tension. Price structure reinforces how sensitive this zone has become. Bitcoin is currently trading in the lower 17% of the Donchian channel, positioning BTC just above the $86.4K support level. This area now represents a clear decision point for the market. If buyers continue absorbing supply, a base may begin to form. If support fails, the absence of downside reaction so far could quickly give way to renewed volatility. Extreme Derivatives Pressure Meets Price Stability According to CryptoQuant data, Bitcoin’s Derivatives Market Pressure Index has reached an unusually critical state. The indicator collapsed to 30.54, marking a new 30-day low and exceeding the previous downside extremes recorded on January 21 (36.95) and January 25 (35.63). The Market Pressure Index is a normalized composite that blends price action, cumulative 6-hour net taker flow, Open Interest, and volume delta, calibrated over a 365-day window to improve signal robustness and reduce noise. The most striking detail is the speed of the move. On January 27 at 07:00 UTC, the index dropped 12 points within a single hour, yet Bitcoin’s price barely reacted, moving only from $88.2K to $88.3K. This creates a rare and critical divergence: derivatives pressure reached an extreme, but price refused to break lower. Adler stresses that this behavior leaves the market at a binary crossroads. Either buyers are actively absorbing supply at current levels—suggesting early base formation—or the market is storing downside energy that could be released sharply if support fails. Together, the charts describe a tense equilibrium. Price Structure shows BTC sitting near support, in the lower 17% of the Donchian channel, with a Structure Shift of -0.57, confirming a broken bullish structure. Meanwhile, sellers are applying maximum monthly pressure and meeting resistance. This is either strong demand asserting itself or the final pause before capitulation. Related Reading: US Institutions Step Back From Ethereum: Coinbase Premium Flashes Caution Bitcoin Downtrend Pressure Persists Below Key Averages Bitcoin is trading around $87,800 on the daily chart, continuing to struggle after repeated failures to reclaim higher resistance zones. The broader structure shows a clear transition from the late-2025 uptrend into a corrective phase, with price posting lower highs and weaker rebounds since the sharp selloff in November. While BTC has managed to stabilize above the mid-$80K region, upside momentum remains limited and fragile. From a technical perspective, the moving averages define the current battlefield. Bitcoin is trading below the 50-day moving average (blue), which is now sloping downward and acting as immediate resistance near the low-$90K area. The 100-day moving average (green) sits higher and continues to trend lower, reinforcing a bearish medium-term bias and capping recovery attempts. Above both, the 200-day moving average (red) remains well overhead near the $105K–$108K range, highlighting how far the price has drifted from a fully bullish structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Indicator Falls Back To Post-Bear Market Levels: Investors Approach A Key Decision Point Recent bounce attempts toward $92K–$96K were decisively rejected, confirming that sellers remain active on rallies. Volume has eased compared to the November capitulation, suggesting reduced urgency rather than strong demand. For bulls, holding the $86K–$88K zone is critical to prevent a deeper breakdown. A daily close back above $90K would be the first step toward stabilizing the trend. Failure to defend current levels keeps downside risk open toward the low-$80K range. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com