After enduring a brutal 95%+ drawdown from its 2021 peak, Avalanche is now showing early signs of a potential high-timeframe reversal. With price stabilizing at macro support and forming an emerging Elliott Wave structure on the weekly chart, the current phase could mark a critical turning point in the broader cycle. Weekly Elliott Wave Structure Signals Macro Inflection AVAX is currently forming an Elliott Wave structure on the weekly chart, trading within a massive descending channel that has remained intact since the 2021 all-time high. The broader structure suggests the asset is still operating within a long-term corrective phase, but key technical signals now point to a potential higher-timeframe inflection point. Related Reading: Avalanche Shows Signs Of Recovery As Key Indicator Flashes A Buy Signal – Details According to Crypto Patel, after enduring a brutal 95%+ cycle correction, Avalanche appears to have completed Wave 1 with a macro low near $5.67. Price is now transitioning into the early stages of a Wave 2 recovery phase, a critical moment in the Elliott Wave sequence that often determines whether a sustainable expansion phase can follow. Structurally, the weekly chart shows several notable developments. Wave 1 seems to have finalized within the $8–$5 macro bottoming zone, establishing a potential base of support. At the same time, price continues to trade within the long-term descending channel that has defined the broader downtrend. Technically, the chart reflects a clean bearish breakdown followed by a retest of the lower trendline, a classic deviation setup. Additionally, AVAX executed a liquidity sweep into the weekly demand zone between $8 and $7. Meanwhile, the overall fractal structure also mirrors the compression phase seen in the previous cycle before expansion. For confirmation, Crypto Patel emphasizes the need for sustained weekly strength and expansion back toward mid-channel resistance. A decisive push in that direction would strengthen the bullish Wave 2 thesis and signal that the larger recovery structure is beginning to unfold. Avalanche Upside Roadmap: $33 To $147 In Focus CryptoPatel outlines an ambitious upside roadmap for Avalanche, projecting sequential targets at $33, $58, $97, and ultimately $147. Should the broader channel expansion scenario play out into 2026–2027, price could trend toward the upper boundary of the multi-year descending channel. From the macro bottom to the final target, that would represent an estimated 2,489% expansion. Related Reading: Avalanche (AVAX) Defies Bear Market With Explosive On‑Chain Growth, Messari The bullish thesis remains intact as long as Avalanche holds above $5.50 on a weekly final support, which marks the Wave 1 low and last major structural support. Maintaining this level preserves the higher-timeframe recovery structure and keeps the Wave 2 continuation scenario in play. However, a confirmed weekly close below $5.50 would invalidate the setup and signal structural weakness. As it stands, this remains a high-timeframe, patience-driven opportunity with asymmetric risk-to-reward, a framework best suited for spot accumulation and long-term holders. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
The bank has also lowered price targets for Solana, XRP, BNB, and Avalanche, in addition to bitcoin and ether.
The Avalanche Policy Coalition unveiled a new advisory council, led by Ava Labs General Counsel Lee Schneider.
A newly released report from crypto market intelligence firm Messari offers a detailed look at Avalanche’s (AVAX) performance during the fourth quarter (Q4) of 2025, revealing a sharp contrast between weak price action and record‑breaking on‑chain activity. Metrics Climb Even As AVAX Suffers Steep Q4 Decline According to Messari, Avalanche’s native token, AVAX, experienced a steep decline during the final quarter of the year. The token fell 59.0% quarter‑over‑quarter (QoQ) and 65.5% year‑over‑year (YoY), dropping from around $30.00 at the end of Q3 in September to approximately $12.30 by the close of Q4. Related Reading: Bitcoin Slides Toward $85,000 Despite Progress On US Crypto Market Structure Bill Avalanche’s circulating market capitalization mirrored that drop, falling 58.3% QoQ and 63.9% YoY from $12.7 billion to $5.3 billion. Yet, the decline in valuation also impacted Avalanche’s relative standing among digital assets. AVAX slipped from 14th to 21st place in rankings by circulating market cap over the quarter. Despite this, Messari highlighted that network usage continued to expand, effectively breaking the typical link between token price performance and network fees. While total fees measured in US dollars declined 11.7% QoQ, that drop was modest compared with the 59.0% fall in AVAX’s price. In native terms, fees paid on the network increased meaningfully. Fees denominated in AVAX rose 24.9% QoQ, climbing from 105,719 AVAX to 132,016 AVAX. Average daily transactions on the C‑Chain jumped 63% to 2.1 million, while a wave of liquidations during the market crash on October 10, 2025, generated $520,715 in transaction fees. Messari noted that this was the highest single‑day fee total recorded on Avalanche since February 2024. Avalanche Sees Record Transaction And User Activity Looking more broadly, Avalanche’s ecosystem reached new activity highs in Q4 2025. Aggregate usage across the C‑Chain and all Avalanche Layer‑1 networks accelerated sharply. Average daily transactions increased 4.5% QoQ and surged 1,162.1% YoY to 38.2 million. At the same time, average daily active addresses climbed 25.1% QoQ and an extraordinary 16,360.3% YoY, reaching 24.7 million. Activity on the C‑Chain alone reached historic levels. Average daily transactions rose 69.0% QoQ and 799.3% YoY, making Q4 2025 the busiest quarter on record for the chain. Staking metrics, however, reflected the pressure from falling prices. The total USD value of staked AVAX declined 59.9% QoQ and 69.1% YoY to $2.3 billion, largely tracking the token’s price drop. Rising DeFi Base And Major RWA Growth Avalanche’s decentralized finance ecosystem also continued to evolve despite market headwinds. Messari reported that the DeFi Diversity Score, which measures how many protocols account for 90% of total value locked, rose 5.9% QoQ and 63.6% YoY, increasing from 17.0 to 18.0. Related Reading: Bitcoin Supply In Loss Begins To Rise, Raising Early Bear Market Concerns Total DeFi TVL across Avalanche L1s and the C‑Chain declined 41.9% QoQ and 3.8% YoY, falling from $2.2 billion to $1.3 billion. At the same time, the network’s stablecoin market cap grew modestly, increasing 1.7% QoQ and 24.3% YoY to $1.8 billion. As seen in the chart above, measured in AVAX rather than dollars, native DeFi TVL rose 34.5% QoQ to 97.5 million AVAX, even as USD‑denominated TVL fell 44.9%. Messari explained that this divergence occurred because AVAX’s price declined faster than the underlying value held within DeFi protocols. One of the strongest areas of growth for Avalanche in Q4 was real‑world assets (RWAs). RWA TVL jumped 68.6% QoQ and 949.3% YoY, rising from $789.8 million at the end of Q3 to $1.33 billion by the close of Q4 2025. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Avalanche (AVAX) is entering a decisive phase as price action begins to outline potential paths for its next major move. With the market balancing between a short-term reaction rally and the risk of deeper downside, key price zones are now coming into focus. Rather than chasing momentum, the chart suggests a period in which patience and positioning around critical levels could determine how the next broader trend unfolds. Two Clear Paths On The Avalanche Chart: No Bias, Just Scenarios In an Avalanche update, crypto analyst Cryptosahintas explained that the current chart presents two primary scenarios, without forcing certainty on either outcome. In the first scenario, AVAX could follow the path marked by the red arrow, where price stages a short-term reaction rally toward the $22.5 area. Interestingly, the move could be followed by another pullback toward the $11 region, potentially allowing the market to reset and form a healthier rising structure over time. Related Reading: AVAX Pushes Toward $18 As Key Resistance Looms: Analyst The second scenario, represented by the black arrow, suggests a deeper initial dip toward the $8.5 zone. From there, price could recover back toward $22.5 before experiencing another retracement into the broader $8–$10 band. This type of price action could also help establish the foundation for a new upward trend. Across both scenarios, the common takeaway remains the same: these highlighted zones offer the most logical areas for positioning from a risk-to-reward standpoint. Cryptosahintas emphasized that waiting with a plan, rather than chasing price from higher levels, remains the healthier and more disciplined approach in the current market structure. Planning For Every Scenario, Not Predicting One Outcome The analyst went further to clarify personal positioning, explaining that the average entry lies within the $22–24 range. Should an intermediate rally develop, the intention is to offload positions around these levels, step back from the market, and wait patiently. After that, attention would shift toward reassessing potential opportunities in the $10–8 zone, where risk-reward conditions could become more favorable. Related Reading: Avalanche Coils For Impact: This Indicator Signals A Massive Move Ahead However, if no relief rally materializes and price slides directly toward the $8 region, the strategy does not change, which is to remain on the sidelines and observe rather than react emotionally to downside volatility. Staying composed and avoiding impulsive decisions is viewed as critical during sharp market moves. At the core of this approach is preparation rather than prediction. The analyst emphasized that the goal is not to declare with certainty what will happen next, but to have a predefined response for every likely outcome. Knowing in advance how to act regardless of which scenario unfolds keeps the plan disciplined, consistent, and grounded in risk management. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
The firm, which holds AVAX tokens and related Avalanche ecosystem assets, registered roughly 74 million shares held by insiders.
The first fund to track the Avalanche's AVAX token and include staking rewards debuted Monday with the launch of the VanEck Avalanche ETF.
AVAX, the native token of the Avalanche protocol, is ready for a potential price breakout following another week of significant mixed price action. In line with the widespread crypto market uplift, the altcoin had initially surged as high as $14.85 before retracing below the $13.50 price. According to analyst Ali Martinez, AVAX now lies at another critical price juncture, with the next price move likely to determine its short-term trend. Related Reading: SUI Reclaims Smart Money Zone, While Weekly Structure Signals Big Move Ahead Here’s Why AVAX Must Clear $14.83 Resistance In an X post on January 16, Martinez shares an insightful analysis of the AVAX 12-hour trading chart, identifying a key price zone and an important chart formation. According to the presented technical review, AVAX’s recent rejection around $14.85 can be attributed to heavy resistance in this region. Most notably, the altcoin has struggled to break past this $14.83 price barrier thrice in the last month, indicating a significant willingness among investors to sell when the price approaches this zone. This could be driven by a general view of such a price point as a good profit-taking zone or expectation of a price decline based on historical data. It’s worth noting that Martinez’s analysis also shows that AVAX price movement has formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern, thereby favoring an imminent upside breakout. For context, the inverse H&S formation is a bullish pattern that signals a potential trend reversal. As seen above, it consists of three troughs: the left shoulder, where price declines, then rebounds; the head, a deeper decline to around $11.26 followed by a recovery, and the right shoulder, a higher low ($13.75) that fails to reach the depth of the head. All rebound highs are connected by a resistance line ($14.83) known as the neckline. And a bullish breakout indicates strengthening buying pressure. Therefore, Martinez explains that AVAX must push past this barrier in a decisive manner to trigger a bullish breakout towards $17.59 as an initial price target. With sustained buying pressure, the analyst predicts a further rise to $18.41, representing a potential 35% gain on present market prices. Related Reading: XRP Breakout Possible Before The Weekend, Expert Says AVAX Market Overview At the time of writing, AVAX trades at. $13.61 reflecting minor losses 1.19% and 1.34%in the past one and seven days, respectively. Meanwhile, the monthly chart reports a market gain of 14.67%, indicating the market could indeed be experiencing a trend reversal following the net negative Q4 2025 performance. Featured image from Firi, chart from Tradingview
Galaxy Digital closed a $75 million tokenized CLO on Avalanche to finance Arch Lending’s crypto-backed lending facility.
The fund will use Coinbase Crypto Services as its initial staking provider and pay a 4% service fee, with rewards accruing to the fund and reflected in its net asset value.
Avalanche (AVAX) is coiling for a massive move. A potent Wolfe Wave pattern is forming alongside a test of a key weekly trendline. This structural confluence signals that the market is reaching a point of maximum compression, indicating that a significant directional breakout is imminent. Wolfe Wave Formation Signals Strong Future Move According to a recent technical analysis by BeLaunch, AVAX is shaping a notable Wolfe Wave pattern, a formation known for sparking strong directional moves once completed. This developing structure reflects tightening price action and growing pressure within the market, hinting that a significant breakout could be on the horizon. Related Reading: AVAX Reclaims Top 20 Spot as Securitize Chooses Avalanche for EU Securities Platform At the same time, Avalanche is pressing against a descending weekly trendline that has consistently acted as a major resistance level. A breakout above it would reinforce the bullish implications of the Wolfe Wave, while a rejection could force the asset back into a prolonged consolidation. For those eyeing long-term accumulation, BeLaunch points to the $11–$8 range as the most compelling buy zone. This region could provide strong support and aligns with key structural levels, making it an attractive opportunity for investors preparing for the next potential upside cycle. Historical Precedent: The September 2023 Rally Setup BeLaunch went on to highlight that the current Avalanche setup closely mirrors the conditions seen in September 2023, just before a major rally unfolded. The resemblance between the two periods offers a valuable historical reference, suggesting that the market may once again be preparing for a significant move. Related Reading: Avalanche (AVAX) Price Holds Key Support, But Analyst Warns Rally Could Be At Risk The analysis emphasizes that the same pattern is taking shape once again, increasing the probability of an upward move if price action aligns with previous behavior. Repeated technical scenarios often carry weight because markets tend to respond consistently under familiar conditions. If AVAX continues to respect this structure, it could set the foundation for a potential bullish breakout. BeLaunch also noted the importance of continued monitoring as the pattern progresses. Tracking price action, market sentiment, and overall momentum will be crucial in determining whether the bullish outlook gains confirmation. Any future decisions or expectations will rely on clear signals from the pattern as well as shifts in broader market dynamics. Avalanche is currently trading around $13.06, reflecting a mild intraday pullback as the market adjusts to recent volatility. With a market capitalization of approximately $6.3 billion, AVAX remains one of the notable assets in the broader crypto landscape. Trading activity has been strong, with its 24-hour volume sitting between $428 million and $445 million, signaling ongoing interest from both short-term traders and long-term participants. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from Tradingview.com
Avalanche (AVAX) is back in the spotlight after reclaiming its position among the top 20 cryptos to surpass Hedera (HBAR), just as Securitize secures EU approval to launch the region’s first fully regulated blockchain-based securities market on the Avalanche network. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s New ‘Line In The Sand’ May Be $82,000, Not $56,000: Analyst This convergence of regulatory momentum, institutional adoption, and renewed technical strength has positioned AVAX for a potential market revival heading into 2026. AVAX's price trends to the downside on the daily chart. Source: AVAXUSD on Tradingview Securitize Wins EU Approval and Selects Avalanche for Settlement System Securitize received regulatory authorization from Spain’s National Securities Market Commission (CNMV) to operate a tokenized trading and settlement system under the EU’s DLT Pilot Regime. The approval enables Securitize to passport the license across the European Single Market, including France, Germany, and Italy, creating an unprecedented bridge between its U.S. broker-dealer operations and Europe’s capital markets. The firm confirmed that the entire infrastructure will run on the Avalanche blockchain, citing sub-second finality, regulatory-grade network performance, and scalable architecture. This move positions Avalanche at the center of institutional tokenization just as Securitize prepares for a $1.25 billion SPAC merger and expands its portfolio, including managing the now-over $1 billion BlackRock BUIDL on-chain treasury fund. The first EU-compliant issuance is slated for early 2026, opening the door for a wave of regulated tokenized assets, an estimated $18 trillion market by 2033. AVAX Price Holds Key Support as Technical Signals Improve While fundamentals surge, AVAX’s price remains compressed near the long-term support zone around $12–$15. The token recently bounced to $14.94, posting a 6.5% daily gain and breaking above its 7-day moving average at $13.96. It now faces a technical showdown with resistance at the 20-day SMA at $15.21. Momentum indicators are turning constructive. RSI sits at a healthy 42, MACD shows bullish divergence, and Stochastic momentum favors buyers. A breakout above $15.21 could open the path toward $18.61, with a larger target near $33 if long-term trendlines snap. However, failure to hold above $13.91 risks retesting deeper support near $12.57. Institutional Accumulation Strengthens Bullish Outlook Fueling optimism, AVAX One Treasury recently accumulated over 9.37 million AVAX, spending $110 million between November 5 and 23. Total reserves now exceed 13.8 million AVAX, signaling robust long-term institutional confidence. On-chain metrics support the bullish case. Deployed contracts are rising, developer activity is expanding, and futures taker data shows increasing buyer dominance. These combined forces suggest that AVAX may be carving out a medium-term bottom. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Climbs Back To $91,000: Is The Decline Over? Key Levels To Watch As institutional momentum builds and Europe’s first regulated blockchain securities market goes live on Avalanche, AVAX’s comeback narrative is gaining traction—and a trend reversal may be closer than the charts imply. Cover image from ChatGPT, AVAXUSD on Tradingview
Bitwise moves its Avalanche ETF closer to market with updated SEC filing and becomes first issuer to include staking.
The tokenization firm set to run regulated infrastructure to issue and trade tokenized assets across the U.S. and EU.
Digital asset treasury firms are increasingly turning to share buybacks to arrest plunging stock prices as investor demand sours.
NH NongHyup is initiating a PoC to test a system that streamlines VAT refunds for inbound tourists by utilizing stablecoins.
Digital Liquidity Gateway, built on the Avalanche network, helps regional banks tokenize loans, automate settlement and connect them with investors.
With both BTC.b and LBTC, Lombard is the only platform offering both yield and non-yield bitcoin assets, founder Jacob Phillips said.
TIS Inc., Japan’s largest payments processor, has moved into tokenized finance by launching a Multi-Token Platform on Avalanche’s AvaCloud, according to company announcements and industry reports. Related Reading: Dogecoin Ignites — 60% Volume Boom Teases Potential Rally The platform is built to support stablecoins, tokenized deposits and digital securities for banks and large firms. This is a step that could change how some institutional payments settle inside Japan. TIS Brings Existing Scale To Tokens According to filings and company material, TIS’s PayCierge system now handles more than ¥300 trillion in annual B2C payments. That figure could top ¥1,000 trillion if more B2B and payroll flows move on-chain, based on the firm’s internal forecasts. TIS is not small: it handles nearly half of domestic credit card processing and supports more than 80% of branded debit accounts. Reports show 11 of Japan’s leading 25 credit card issuers use TIS systems, which together serve nearly 200 million customers. Those ties give the new token platform a ready set of potential partners. This is a big deal. The company that powers ~50% of Japan’s credit card payments, TIS, just deployed on Avalanche????: pic.twitter.com/kyTFSKoYdo — Avalanche???? (@avax) October 28, 2025 Why The Cloud Chain Was Chosen Reports have disclosed that TIS opted to use AvaCloud so it can deploy blockchains without building and running its own infrastructure. AvaCloud is described as offering automated scaling, real-time governance features and the reliability needed for regulated finance. https://t.co/gNU4ZrcK8r — Avalanche???? (@avax) October 28, 2025 Avalanche’s fast finality and cross-chain tools were cited as reasons TIS can aim for real-time, programmable settlement between institutions. The move means responsibility for the underlying cloud and node operations will be shared with the Avalanche service. Links To Yen Stablecoins And Reserve Models JPYC has put forward what it calls the first fully redeemable yen-backed stablecoin, claiming backing from domestic deposits and Japanese government bonds (JGBs). JPYC has said it charges no transaction fees and that it earns revenue from JGB interest. That kind of model is one of the examples of how tokenized yen instruments might be structured on platforms such as TIS’s. What This Could Mean For Banks And Corporates Banks and corporations may be able to run tokenized deposits or securities on the Multi-Token Platform if they join pilots or production programs. That said, adoption will require clear rules about backing, custody and how tokens are redeemed into yen. Some of these details are being discussed now between issuers, service providers and market observers. Related Reading: $10K Is Coming: Arthur Hayes’ Zcash ‘Vibe Check’ Sparks 30% Moonshot Deployment has already begun in production, according to the announcements, but broad use will take time. Featured image from Yellow, chart from TradingView
The payments firm's platform, developed with AvaCloud, aims to help banks, corporates issue and settle stablecoins and tokenized assets.
The collaboration has already enabled more than $2 billion in staked assets since launching in early 2024.
The bank's crypto platform, Mynt, cites institutional demand, network security, and real-world use cases as reasons for its picks.
AVAT aims to raise $1 billion to build an AVAX treasury and list on Nasdaq in early 2026, offering institutions discounted exposure to the network.
The deal includes an initial $200 million discounted AVAX purchase allocation through the Avalanche Foundation.
AVAX tumbled alongside the rest of the crypto market, extending a weeklong slide despite Anthony Scaramucci-backed AVAX One’s rebrand.
Despite the recent market bloodbath, Avalanche (AVAX) continues to attract both institutional and retail interest, gaining 17% in the 24-hour charts and trading near $35.50 after a series of sharp rallies. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Capitulate: 30K BTC In Realized Losses Over 24 Hours The token’s recent surge has been driven by whale demand, a $550 million treasury initiative, and increasing momentum in real-world asset tokenization. Analysts now suggest that AVAX could test the $50 mark if current trends persist. AVAX's price trends to the upside on the daily chart. Source: AVAXUSD on Tradingview Institutional Bets and Treasury Flows The most significant catalyst came from AgriFORCE Growing Systems’ rebrand to AVAX One, making it the first Nasdaq-listed entity centered on Avalanche. The company aims to raise $550 million through a mix of PIPE financing and equity-linked products, with the goal of accumulating more than $700 million worth of AVAX tokens. Supported by Hivemind Capital and more than 50 institutions, including Galaxy Digital and Kraken, the move establishes Avalanche as a major player in institutional-grade blockchain adoption. SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci has also joined as an advisor, highlighting growing Wall Street confidence in Avalanche’s role in the asset tokenization revolution. Technical Outlook: AVAX Bulls Defend Key Levels From a technical perspective, AVAX has broken through key resistance levels while remaining stable above its $32–$34 support zone. The token moves within an ascending channel, supported by the 20-day EMA at $30.43, with all major moving averages signaling bullish momentum. The RSI hovers around 71, suggesting slightly overbought conditions, but momentum indicators remain strong. Analysts identify $37 as the next key resistance level. A breakout could unlock higher targets at $40 and eventually $47–$50, aligning with liquidity maps that mark this zone as a major supply area. Tokenization Momentum and On-Chain Data Avalanche’s bullish case is further supported by its growing ecosystem. On-chain flows indicate net inflows of $3.26 million on September 23, signaling renewed accumulation. Futures open interest has also increased to nearly $1.8 billion, highlighting strong leveraged demand. Meanwhile, Avalanche’s growing role in tokenization, already tested by global players like Apollo and JPMorgan, provides a fundamental tailwind. With ETF filings underway and AVAX One’s treasury build-up reducing circulating supply, the long-term trajectory appears robust. Related Reading: Expert Says No ‘Magic Switch’ For XRP Price, Here’s What Can Drive Price Above $2,500 If AVAX clears the $37–$40 resistance zone, momentum could accelerate toward $47–$50 in the coming weeks. While short-term pullbacks remain possible, institutional inflows and tokenization demand continue to favor the bulls. Cover image from ChatGPT, AVAXUSD chart from Tradingview
AgriFORCE (AGRI) is to be renamed AVAX One with plans to raise $550 million to pursue a Avalanche treasury strategy.
The SkyBridge Capital founder said Hivemind and Avalanche Foundation are also supporting the new AVAX DAT.
The LayerZero-enabled version, PYUSD0, remains “fully fungible” with native PYUSD, extending the stablecoin to additional blockchains.
Prior to Ava Labs, Arielle Pennington was the head of communications at the Solana Foundation since April 2023.