The price of Bitcoin has maintained a consistent decline over the past week following several economic and market developments. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the premier cryptocurrency currently hovers around the $60,000 price zone, having lost over 11.17% of its market value in the last seven days. As many crypto enthusiasts may hope Bitcoin finds some stability soon, CryptoQuant analyst abramchat has predicted a reverse scenario, indicating the crypto market leader may experience more losses in the coming days. Related Reading: Wondering When To Buy Bitcoin? Here Are The Levels To Watch Bitcoin Price Far From Recovery? In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, abramchat stated that amidst the recent market downturn, Bitcoin has now lost a vital short-term support at the $64,580 price mark, which represents the average price at which investors have purchased Bitcoin over the last six months. Such development implies that the average investor is likely currently underwater which can lead to an increased selling pressure in a cut their losses or avoid further losses. According to abramchat, Bitcoin’s recent price fall can be attributed to economic and political news which have negatively impacted several financial markets prominently the stock market which recorded significant losses on Thursday and Friday. Bitcoin’s price drop is also likely influenced by defunct crypto lender Genesis finally commencing repayments to creditors after declaring bankruptcy in January 2023. On Friday, Genesis transferred out $1.5 billion in Ethereum and Bitcoin as they aim to offload $4 billion in debt. Commenting on Bitcoin’s future price trajectory, abramchart states that the failure of the digital asset to reclaim the support level of $64,580 will likely result in a further decline to around $53,000 – $54,000 which represents the next significant support zone. However, such low price levels were recently seen in early July, following the massive market sell-off by the German government. In addition, abramchart has warned investors to be cautious in purchasing altcoins at the moment. The analyst believes the current market “negativity” could produce a significant deleterious effect on other coins aside from Bitcoin. Related Reading: XRP, Bitcoin Sentiment Remains Very Positive: Bad Sign For Price? BTC Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $60,597 following a 1.20% decline in the last day. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency dipped below the $60,000 mark on Saturday for the first time since mid-July. Currently, Bitcoin’s daily trading volume is also down by 24.45%, indicating a low level of interest due to diminished buying and selling activities. However, with a market cap of $1.19 trillion, Bitcoin remains the largest digital asset and the 9th largest global financial asset. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from Tradingview
As summer is currently fast approaching, several crypto traders and analysts have cranked up their optimism for Bitcoin price trajectory. Among them is well-known crypto analyst, Rekt Capital, who has recently shared insights on BTC next move, suggesting that the asset is poised for a significant breakout in September. This sentiment is echoed by other market analysts who have been closely analyzing recent trends and historical data. What the Bullish September Sentiment Is Based On Rekt Capital pointed out that despite Bitcoin’s failure to break out from its reaccumulation range post-April’s Bitcoin halving, it is still “on track for a September breakout”. Reaccumulation phases are typically characterized by savvy investors accumulating assets in anticipation of a price surge. Related Reading: Is A Major Bitcoin Dip Coming? What the Coinbase Index Tells Us This phase often sets the stage for strong market rallies. However, the complexity of current market conditions means that patience is essential, and the expected movements may unfold more gradually. Rekt Capital noted: History suggests that a breakout from the ReAccumulation Range mere ~100 days after the Halving was always going to be unlikely. Meanwhile, another prominent analyst, Daan Crypto Trades, has recently highlighted the technical patterns forming around Bitcoin’s price. According to Daan, the proximity of lower highs suggests significant liquidity above these levels, likely influenced by stop losses and short liquidations. This setup indicates that surpassing the June 7th high could trigger a comprehensive breakout, overcoming previous resistance levels. Conversely, support levels around $63,000-$63.5,000 are also crucial, as they represent areas where many investors might have placed long stop orders. This creates a balanced playfield, with Bitcoin trading in what Daan describes as “the middle of nowhere,” reflecting a market awaiting a clear directional signal. #Bitcoin With a couple of lower highs in close proximity of each other. Likely for a lot of liquidity to sit above these levels in the form of stop losses/liquidation levels from shorts. Seeing it’s also at all time high, I think once we take the June 7th high we’ll break all.… pic.twitter.com/O4B0CA0dBM — Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) July 30, 2024 Bitcoin Market Performance and Fundamentals Currently, Bitcoin is trading at a price of $66,352, at the time of writing, following a 0.7% increase in the past 24 hours. This price performance although small, has resulted in a roughly $6 billion added to the asset’s market cap. While Bitcoin’s current market performance might not be that appealing, a notable metric of the asset has suggested an interesting impending move. Related Reading: Elliot Wave Theory Suggests Bitcoin Price will Crash Below $40,000 Particularly supporting the bullish outlook mentioned above, a CryptoQuant analyst recently observed a notable increase in Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges. This trend, according to the analyst, can be a positive sign which could result in upward movement for Bitcoin as the available supply on exchanges diminishes, potentially driving prices higher if demand spikes. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
As the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville draws near, scheduled for July 25-27, the BTC community braces for what could be a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s history. The event is attracting unprecedented attention, possibly set to surpass the landmark announcement in 2021 by Jack Mallers that El Salvador would adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. The anticipation around the conference has been significantly amplified by the scheduled appearance of Donald Trump, the leading US presidential candidate. Rumors that began circulating last week have suggested that Trump might endorse Bitcoin as a potential reserve asset should he win the presidential election in November. These speculations were further fueled by Dennis Porter, founder of the regulatory advocacy group Satoshi Act Fund, who posted on social media platform X about an unconfirmed leak claiming that Trump plans to “announce a USA bitcoin strategic reserve in Nashville,” citing sources wishing to remain anonymous. Bitcoin Could See A “$100,000 Trinity Candle” Amidst this backdrop, Dan Ripoll, a former managing director at financial service company Swan and now a professional trader, outlined a bold scenario that could potentially more than double Bitcoin’s price instantly if Trump’s plans come to fruition. Speaking on X, Ripoll described the possibility as “one of the most gangster moves” Trump could make. Related Reading: Here Are 5 Reasons To Be Bullish On Bitcoin, Analyst Says His hypothetical involves Trump announcing at the conference that he has significantly invested in Bitcoin and plans to integrate it into the US Strategic Reserve. “Get balls long BTC (as in thousands of coins) going into the Bitcoin Conference next week. Announce plans to put BTC in the US Strategic Reserve. BTC goes vertical with a $100,000 Trinity Candle. Trump quintuples his net worth overnight. He never sells,” Ripoll theorized. According to him, such an action would not only enhance Trump’s net worth but also be positive for BTC hodlers if he keeps his promise. “Then, he should actually follow through with that promise and start accumulating BTC once in office. Everyone wins. Gensler comes after Trump for market manipulation. Trump to Gensler: “You’re Fired”, Ripoll added. Ripoll also suggested that the Democratic Party could potentially undercut Trump’s impact by adopting a pro-Bitcoin stance before the elections, though he expressed skepticism about their willingness to make such a move. Ripoll stated: “The Democrats could steal his thunder by coming out in favor of BTC before the election. But they won’t do it. It makes one question, how badly to the Dems want to win this thing?” Reactions From The BTC Community The reactions within the Bitcoin community to this speculative scenario has been mixed. Eugene Gant expressed skepticism about the broader implications of linking Bitcoin with potential political maneuvers, questioning the ethicality of leveraging a public position for personal financial gain through cryptocurrency. Ripoll responded by emphasizing the broader benefits if America adopts Bitcoin as a reserve asset, suggesting that tying the dollar to “hard money” could stabilize the currency and benefit holders of Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Option Traders Are Betting On A Price Breakout Ahead Of US Elections: QCP Capital Another community member, Steve, voiced concerns that Trump’s history of promoting and then divesting personal ventures could indicate a similar strategy with Bitcoin—buying low, pumping the price, and then selling high. Ripoll countered by noting the common trajectory from skepticism to support within the Bitcoin community, suggesting it wouldn’t be surprising if Trump had genuinely shifted his stance. The expert concluded: “Everyone who is a bitcoin maximalist started off as a bitcoin skeptic. Every single one of us. It would not be surprising to see that he actually learned about it and changed his tune. That is the path.” The anticipation for the Bitcoin 2024 conference featuring Trump is clearly visible in the BTC price action over the past days. At press time, BTC traded at $67,373, up more than 24% in the past two weeks. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
With Germany’s “forced selling” over and Mt. Gox repayments all but priced in, analysts look to an easing macro environment as a driver for Bitcoin’s price in the coming months.
Institutions are buying as Bitcoin dips under $60,000, strengthening the long-term bullish outlook for BTC’s price.
Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the critical support level of $60,000, reaching a low of $57,914. Since Tuesday, Bitcoin has experienced a further 7% decline, reinforcing the ongoing downward trend. Currently, market sentiment is shifting markedly towards the bearish side. Is A May 2021-Style Bitcoin Crash Looming? Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, has raised significant concerns regarding the pattern emerging in the Bitcoin market, reminiscent of the conditions that led to the dramatic crash of May 2021. In a detailed analysis shared via X (formerly Twitter), Kang highlighted the overlooked criticality of the current market dynamics. Kang stated, “Most market participants are not appreciating the significance of a potential loss of a 4-month range on Bitcoin. The closest parallel we can draw is to that of the range of May 2021 where we also came off a parabolic rally of BTC and alts.” Related Reading: Longest Miner Capitulation Since 2022 Signals Potential Bitcoin Rally Ahead He noted the similarities in market conditions, particularly in terms of leveraged positions, which currently exceed $50 billion. “This figure does not include the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which is higher, but compounded by the fact that in this scenario we have ranged even longer (18 weeks vs. 13), and we have not had extreme washouts yet while we had a few in the middle of the 2020-2021 bull market,” Kang elaborated. Kang also adjusted his projections for Bitcoin’s bottom, suggesting a steeper fall than earlier anticipated: “It’s likely that my initial estimates of low $50ks were too conservative and we see a more extreme reset to $40ks.” He warned that such a pullback could significantly damage the market, necessitating a few months of consolidation and a downtrend before any reversal to an upward trend might be conceivable. In a dialogue with Alex Krüger, a well-known macro and crypto analyst, the discussion explored the intricacies of open interest (OI) in the derivatives market, a crucial aspect of understanding market sentiment and directional biases. Krüger pointed out, “Much of that OI is not directional though,” suggesting a more complex market behavior than straightforward long and short positions. Related Reading: British Mega Bank Standard Chartered Says Bitcoin Will Hit $100,000, Here’s When Responding, Kang clarified the composition of OI, saying, “Each unit of OI is one long + one short. Even if there are basis trade shorts on the short leg, there’s a directional long on the other end. So yes… less directional shorts.” The conversation further delved into whether derivatives traders are delta neutral, which affects market stability. Krüger queried about market maker positions, and Kang responded, “I can assure you that there are not many market makers in the OI that are delta neutral long perps and short spot paying funding/borrow on both ends for a negative carry trade.” What Happened In May 2021? This ongoing discussion among experts reflects a deepening concern over the potential for a repeat of the May 2021 crash. During that period, Bitcoin’s price plummeted dramatically following a peak of around $64,000 in mid-April 2021. By the end of June, it had lost about 56% of its value. This crash was precipitated by a mix of factors, including regulatory crackdowns in China, environmental concerns voiced by influential figures like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and a resulting cascade of panic selling among both retail and institutional investors. In retrospect, the May 2021 downturn was characterized by a rapid shift in investor sentiment, driven by external shocks and exacerbated by the high levels of leverage in the market. Today, similar conditions could be forming according to Kang, with high leverage and extended periods without significant price corrections, suggesting that the market may be on the brink of another severe downturn. At press time, BTC traded at $58,736. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Data suggests the average cost of mining Bitcoin is standing around $86,700 right now. Here’s what history suggests could happen next for BTC. Bitcoin Average Mining Cost Is Currently Notably Higher Than The Price In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about how the average mining cost of BTC is looking like right now. The Bitcoin network runs on a consensus mechanism based on the “proof-of-work” in which validators called the miners compete against each other using computing power to get to hash the next block on the chain. This computing power naturally has its running cost, with electricity being the most notable expense that the miners have to pay, given that it’s a perpetual cost. The incentive for spending capital on mining operations lies in the block rewards that these validators receive upon successfully adding the next block. Obviously, mining expenses are different depending on location, as electricity prices aren’t the same everywhere. As such, the chart that Ali has cited from MacroMicro uses data provided by the Cambridge University on BTC electricity consumption to find out an average value. Related Reading: Bitcoin FOMO: Social Media Users Calling To Buy Sub-$66,000 Dip Below is the chart in question, which shows how the average mining cost on the Bitcoin network has changed over the past few years. As is visible in the above graph, the Bitcoin average mining cost (colored in blue) had been below the price of the cryptocurrency earlier in the year, but recently, the former’s value has spiked and has surpassed the latter’s. The reason behind this sudden increase is that there is another variable at play when calculating the average cost of mining Bitcoin: the Issuance, or the number of tokens that the miners are minting daily. In general, the block rewards stay fixed both in value and frequency, so the Issuance of the network, which is nothing else than the sum of the block rewards mined in a day, more or less remains fixed as well. Specific events, however, don’t abide by this. They are the Halvings. These periodic events that take place approximately every four years permanently slash the block rewards in half. The latest such event, the fourth ever in the cryptocurrency’s history, occurred back in April. Naturally, the Halvings mean that the cost of mining 1 BTC drastically goes up, as miners only get half as many rewards as before after doing the same amount of work. Thus, it’s not surprising that the cost of production for the coin observed a sharp increase coinciding with the latest Halving. At present, this metric stands at $86,700, meaning that according to MacroMicro’s model, the average miner would be underwater. Related Reading: Dogecoin Plunges 11%, But This On-Chain Cushion Could End Decline Based on the past trend of the indicator, Ali has identified a pattern that Bitcoin has always followed. “Historically, BTC always surges above its average mining cost!” notes the analyst. As such, if this pattern continues to hold for the current cycle as well, then it may only be a matter of time before Bitcoin surges past the $86,700 mark. BTC Price Bitcoin has gone through a drawdown of more than 5% recently, which has brought its price under the $66,000 level. Featured image from Dall-E, MacroMicro.me, chart from TradingView.com
In a technical analysis shared by noted crypto analyst Josh Olszewicz on the social platform X, there appears to be a significant bullish sentiment building around Bitcoin, particularly if it surpasses the crucial $72,000 mark. Olszewicz, leveraging both the Ichimoku Cloud and Fibonacci extensions, illustrates a scenario where breaking this key resistance level could catapult Bitcoin towards a target of $91,500. Here’s How Bitcoin Could Skyrocket To $91,500 The analysis utilizes the Ichimoku Cloud, a complex technical indicator that provides insights into the market’s momentum, trend direction, and potential areas of support and resistance over different time frames. Currently, Bitcoin’s price action is depicted as being in a bullish phase, situated above the cloud. This positioning above the cloud is traditionally viewed as a bullish signal, suggesting a strong uptrend with robust support levels formed by the cloud’s lower boundaries. In the Ichimoku setup, the conversion line (Tenkan-sen) and the baseline (Kijun-sen) cross occasionally, providing buy or sell signals based on their intersection relative to the cloud. As of the latest chart, the conversion line recently crossed above the baseline, reinforcing the bullish outlook depicted by the cloud’s positioning. Related Reading: Mt. Gox Bitcoin Transfer: CryptoQuant Analyzes Potential Market Effects Of The $9.4B Movement Adding another layer to the technical narrative, Fibonacci extension levels have been plotted from a significant low at $56,485.87 up to a high, providing potential targets and resistance levels. The 0.5 Fibonacci extension level is marked at $63,727.40, already surpassed by the current price trajectory. The 1.0 extension finds itself at $71,897.29, closely aligning with the analyst’s noted pivotal level of $72,000. Beyond this, the 1.618 extension at $83,456.87 represents a lucrative first price target, while the ultimate 2.0 extension looms at $91,513.53. A key observation is the volume profile, which shows a declining trend in trading volume. This decreasing volume can often indicate a period of accumulation, as less selling pressure allows prices to stabilize and potentially build a base for an upward breakout. The declining volume trend line underpins the consolidation phase seen in recent months, suggesting that a sharp movement could be imminent once accumulation concludes. Related Reading: Whales Push Bitcoin Into Narrow Consolidation Range: What To Expect Next Olszewicz’s emphatic remark, “BTC: when this baby hits $72k you’re going to see some serious shit,” underscores the high stakes associated with this resistance level. This is not merely a technical observation but a signal to the market that once $72,000 is decisively broken, the path to much higher levels becomes increasingly probable. Such a breakout would likely activate a flurry of trading activity, as both retail and institutional investors might see it as a confirmation of a sustained upward trend, potentially pushing the price towards the $91,500 mark indicated by the 2.0 Fibonacci extension. At press time, BTC traded at $67,783. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
In his latest video update on YouTube, renowned crypto analyst Rekt Capital delved into the complex dynamics surrounding Bitcoin’s halving events, articulating a compelling case for why the market has yet to fully price in the halving which took place on April 19. Drawing on historical data and patterns, Rekt Capital provided an in-depth analysis of the cyclical nature of Bitcoin’s price movements post-halving, suggesting that substantial growth phases still lie ahead. Why The Bitcoin Halving Is Not Priced In Rekt Capital began by revisiting the historical impact of Bitcoin halvings, which occur approximately every four years and reduce the block reward received by miners by half. This constriction in supply, if demand remains constant or increases, typically leads to a significant price increase. “The Bitcoin halving is not priced in,” Rekt Capital asserted, pointing out that each previous halving led to a rally that not only reached but also surpassed previous all-time highs. “The halving every four years always precedes a fantastic surge in Bitcoin’s price action towards new all-time highs,” he noted. This consistent pattern forms a compelling narrative that the post-halving market dynamics are predictable to a degree, yet complex enough to remain partially unanticipated by the market. “Two phases remain in the cycle: The Post-Halving Re-Accumulation phase (red) and the Parabolic Rally phase (green),” he stated. Related Reading: Parabolic Rally In The Making? Bitcoin Regains $70,000 As Traders’ Paper Profits Collapse To 3% Focusing on the reaccumulation phase that traditionally follows each halving, Rekt Capital highlighted that this phase typically lasts about 160 days. During this period, the market often sees a consolidation of price before a breakout leads to a parabolic rally. “We are currently in a reaccumulation period again in this cycle. This is post-halving reaccumulation,” he stated, emphasizing the significance of this phase in setting the stage for the next bull run. The analyst elaborated on the nature of these cycles, noting deviations in the current trends compared to past cycles. “This cycle is exhibiting an accelerated rate, with new all-time highs appearing 260 days prior to the halving, a first in Bitcoin’s history,” he explained. Such deviations suggest that while historical patterns provide a roadmap, each cycle can introduce new dynamics that affect market behavior. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bargains: Expert Reveals Ideal Buy Zones For Maximum Gain Rekt Capital did not overlook the potential risks and market corrections that could occur. He warned of the initial rejection often seen after reaching the high range of post-halving prices, a trend noted in previous cycles. “Every time we’ve seen an initial attempt to get to the range high resistance after the halving, that first attempt after the halving is one that rejects,” he explained. This observation is crucial for investors expecting immediate gains post-halving, as it tempers overly optimistic expectations with a realistic view of possible short-term retracements. The analyst also addressed the issue of diminishing returns in successive cycles, a factor that seasoned Bitcoin investors watch closely. While each cycle’s peak has historically been higher than the last, the rate of growth has slowed. “If this was a one-to-one extension from what we saw in the previous cycle, getting us to $250,000 might be unrealistic this time around, and we are probably looking at a more subdued increase,” he predicted. Nonetheless, Rekt Capital maintained a bullish outlook for the long term, suggesting that while the explosive growth rates of early cycles might not repeat, the overall upward trajectory of Bitcoin’s price post-halving remains intact. “This is going to be the most parabolic phase of the cycle where we see those gains come very quickly in a short space of time,” he concluded, affirming the significant opportunities that lie ahead for Bitcoin investors. At press time, BTC traded at $68,561. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
In an interview with Yahoo Finance’s “Wealth,” Ric Edelman, founder of the Digital Assets Council of Financial Professionals and $291 billion asset manager Edelman Financial Services, provided a striking forecast for the Bitcoin price. Edelman argued that Bitcoin’s price could surge to $420,000, attributing this potential rise to a modest global asset allocation towards Bitcoin. Why Bitcoin Price Will Reach $420,000 During the interview, Edelman delved into the advantages of investing in Spot Bitcoin ETFs. He noted that these instruments make Bitcoin accessible in the same way as traditional ETFs, which are commonplace and familiar to investors using ordinary brokerage accounts. “They’re incredibly inexpensive, 20-25 basis points cheaper than going to say Coinbase or other crypto exchange and being in a brokerage account, you can rebalance, you can dollar cost average, you can tax loss harvest,” Edelman highlighted. This setup simplifies the investment process, making it akin to managing any other asset class, thus broadening its appeal to a wider audience. Related Reading: CPI Preview: Bitcoin Price Poised To Surge If Projections Hold True However, Edelman was also candid about the challenges and risks associated with Bitcoin. Despite the advantages offered by ETFs, the inherent nature of Bitcoin as a volatile and risky investment persists. “It’s still Bitcoin, which means it’s still very volatile, it’s still very risky. You could still lose everything,” he cautioned. Edelman pointed to ongoing regulatory uncertainty, potential lawsuits, and prevalent fraud as significant risks that investors need to manage cautiously. He also criticized the trend of investing due to fear of missing out (FOMO), labeling it as a poor investment rationale. Looking ahead, Edelman discussed the regulatory landscape, particularly concerning other cryptocurrencies like Ethereum. He noted that there are several applications pending for Ethereum ETFs, and while he anticipates initial rejections, approvals could follow by year’s end. Related Reading: Bitcoin, Ethereum, And Solana: Galaxy Digital CEO Predicts Next Market Movements “After you have the Bitcoin ETFs and the Ethereum ETFs, I’m not sure how quickly you’ll see anything else after that, but these two will kind of open the doors long term. Five years from now, there will be dozens, perhaps even hundreds of crypto ETFs,” Edelman speculated. This perspective underscores a significant shift towards mainstream acceptance and integration of cryptocurrencies into traditional financial products. Edelman’s prediction of Bitcoin reaching $420,000 is based on an assumption of global asset diversification. By his calculations, if all global asset holders allocated just 1% of their assets to Bitcoin, this would translate to a market cap of $7.4 trillion for Bitcoin alone. “It’s remarkably simple. If you take a look at the world’s global assets, the value of the stock market, globally, the bond market, the real estate market, the gold market, you just look at all the assets everybody in the world owns, it’s about $740 trillion,” he explained. Such an allocation would dramatically increase Bitcoin’s market cap, driving its price up significantly. Moreover, Edelman highlighted a shift in the perception of Bitcoin from a transactional currency to a store of value, similar to gold. “The use case of Bitcoin, although it’s strong for transmittal, is not the strongest argument. It’s now like gold, a store of value,” he stated. This perception shift has attracted more institutional investors, who view Bitcoin as a hedge or an alternative asset class, akin to other non-traditional investments like artwork or collectibles. At press time, BTC traded at $61,909. Featured image from Wealth Management, chart from TradingView.com
In his latest technical analysis, veteran crypto analyst Christopher Inks offers a detailed look at the current Bitcoin market structure through a comprehensive chart analysis. The chart, recently shared on X, shows Bitcoin’s price movements alongside several key technical indicators and levels that could signal a potential reversal from its bearish trend. The analyst illustrates Bitcoin’s price action with daily candlesticks over the past few months, pinpointing significant support (S1, S2) and resistance (R1, R2) levels. As of press time, Bitcoin traded at around the $63,000 mark, encapsulated by two descending trend lines which represent a bearish market structure. The Bottom Signal For Bitcoin “We still want to see a breakout above the noted level to signal a break in the bearish market structure that began at the ATH,” Inks stated. This level is of paramount importance because it serves as a junction of multiple technical elements: the daily pivot point, the upper descending green resistance line, and the two-month range equilibrium. Related Reading: Bitcoin On-Chain Activity Nearing Historic Lows – What This Means For BTC Price According to Inks, “an impulsive breakout and close above the daily pivot/descending green resistance/2-month range EQ confluence area will signal that the low is likely in.” This suggests that overcoming this barrier could herald the end of the bearish market structure that commenced from the all-time high. If this resistance breaks, the next major resistance is located at $65,541. Afterwards, $68,000 could be on the cards. “Breaking above this level breaks the bearish market structure from March 13th,” according to Inks. Then, R1 at $69,000 and R2 at around $78,000 could be the next targets. On the downside, the most crucial support is at $56,522. It represents the lower boundary that Bitcoin needs to maintain to prevent a new low, which would exacerbate the bearish sentiment. Related Reading: US Mega Banks JP Morgan And Wells Fargo Unveil Bitcoin Exposure As BTC Drops To $60,000 Inks articulates the importance of this support, noting, “If we can print a higher low now, which would require a breakout above the $65.541 level without printing a new low below $56,522, then that would really add support for the idea that the bottom is in and a new ATH is incoming.” This statement underlines the necessity for Bitcoin to hold above this support to avoid further declines and stabilize within its current range. If BTC breaks below the pivotal support, the price could be headed below $56,000 (S1) and $50,90 (S2). Notably, the analysis is supported by a variety of technical indicators. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), hovering around the neutral 50 mark, suggests a balancing act between bullish and bearish forces. The RSI’s position indicates that the market is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for potential upward movement if bullish signals strengthen. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) currently shows that the MACD line is below the signal line, a traditional bearish sign. However, the proximity of these lines also hints at a possible upcoming bullish crossover, should the momentum shift. The Stochastic RSI also indicates potential for movement in either direction but is particularly useful for identifying when Bitcoin might be entering overbought or oversold territories, which are critical for predicting short-term price reversals. Inks also commented on the market’s dynamics, stating, “The positives of the range are that supply has continued to decrease throughout the bearish market structure.” This observation suggests that diminishing supply, paired with maintaining key support levels, could help stabilize and potentially increase Bitcoin’s price. At press time, BTC traded at $62,902. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
An analyst has explained what path Bitcoin might need to follow to surge to a new all-time high (ATH) target of $92,190. Bitcoin Needs To Breach This Resistance Barrier To Rise To New ATH In a new thread on X, analyst Ali discussed whether the BTC price has hit the top. The one signal the analyst has pointed out that may point towards the top has been the massive scale of profit-taking that the market has seen recently. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance: Traders Preferring The OG To Dogecoin & Other Altcoins Ali is waiting for another confirmation before the top can be confirmed. In the scenario that the top gets validated, these are the targets the analyst has marked based on on-chain data. The distribution of UTXOs across the various price levels | Source: @ali_charts on X The above chart shows the Bitcoin UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) data from Glassnode, which tells us how many coins were last bought at what price levels. Generally, the cost basis is an important level for any investor, so they are likely to show some reaction when a retest of it happens. This reaction is the largest when many investors share their cost basis around the same level. When this retest happens from above, the holders may respond by buying more, as they could see the drop as a dip opportunity. As such, large cost basis zones below the current price can prove to be centers of support. “If the market top is confirmed, BTC could drop toward $51,530 or even $42,700!” notes Ali, given that these two levels are the next major support lines for the coin. The analyst says, however, that if BTC can instead break the $66,250 level, which is a source of major resistance right now since these loss holders may be desperate to exit at their break-even, then this bearish outlook could become invalidated. An on-chain pricing model could provide some hints about what might happen when such a break occurs. The trend in the MVRV Pricing Bands for BTC over the past few years | Source: @ali_charts on X The Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) Pricing Bands is a model that, in short, tells us about where the different multipliers of the average cost basis of the entire market currently lie. The chart shows that the market cost basis is currently at $28,800. Historically, three multipliers of this metric have been relevant for the asset: 0.8x, 2.4x, and 3.2x. The 0.8x level is where bottoms occur, while the 3.2x line is a probable spot for tops to form. Bull rallies in proper have occurred after a breach of the 2.4x level. At present, the 2.4x level lies at $69,150. “By rising above $66,250, Bitcoin will gain the strength to push towards $69,150. And if this resistance barrier is breached, BTC can advance toward a new all-time high of $92,190,” explains Ali. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Metric Foreshadowed Recent Price Drops, Quant Reveals This ATH target is based on the fact that the 3.2x level is equivalent to $92,190 at the moment. It remains to be seen whether the top is already in and BTC would retest the lower levels or if more is left to this rally. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $61,100, down more than 7% over the past week. Looks like the price of the coin has plunged over the past day | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView Featured image from Shutterstock.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Experts say the price of Bitcoin could top $200,000 by 2028 but concerns around network security and miner profitability still loom.
In a recent interview on the future of Bitcoin, Anthony Scaramucci, the founder and managing partner of Skybridge Capital, has made a compelling prediction that the Bitcoin price could potentially reach $200,000 following its forthcoming halving event. This forecast comes at a time of considerable volatility within the crypto markets, exacerbated by recent geopolitical tensions and broader economic uncertainty. Bitcoin Poised To Hit $200,000 During the interview, Scaramucci provided insights into the forces he believes will drive Bitcoin’s price in the coming months. “Well, I mean, look, you could get shocks like wars and you could get, you know, God forbid a terrorist calamity or something like that that could take Bitcoin down 10 or 15%,” he explained. Despite potential short-term setbacks, Scaramucci emphasized the underlying demand dynamics bolstering Bitcoin’s price, particularly highlighting the influence of new financial products like ETFs and the growing interest from institutional investors. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Always Sell Into Halvings, Is This Time Any Different? He elaborated on his bullish outlook, linking it to the anticipated Bitcoin halving, an event that historically impacts the supply side of Bitcoin economics by reducing the reward for mining new blocks, thereby constraining supply. “But long term with the halving coming this week, I think this thing trades to $170,000, possibly to $200,000,” Scaramucci asserted. The discussion also veered into the broader implications of Bitcoin’s integration into traditional financial products, such as ETFs. Scaramucci argued that these instruments play a critical role in broadening Bitcoin’s investor base. He dismissed concerns over the potential for ETFs to lead to centralization of Bitcoin ownership. “In terms of adoption vis-a-vis the ETF, you look out your four-year time horizon. […] It will still be less than 10 % of the overall ownership of Bitcoin. So this whole notion that the ETFs are gonna overly centralize Bitcoin, I don’t buy it. I think what the ETFs are, though, is they’re a great conduit for people that are used to buying them.” BTC Is Still In The Web 1.0 Era Scaramucci compared Bitcoin’s trajectory to the early internet era, particularly drawing parallels with significant tech stocks like Amazon during the dot-com bubble. “In 1999, Amazon was an emerging stock on an emerging technology, and it was quite volatile. And you lost 20 to 50 % eight times on Amazon. You lost 80%. Yeah, that one time in March of 2020, it went down 80%. But if you held Amazon over that period of time, $10,000 is worth a little over $14 million today.” Related Reading: No Fed Rate Cuts? No Worries For Bitcoin, Says Research Firm He also addressed concerns about Bitcoin’s practical uses, contrasting its current utility with more traditional assets like gold, which also do not offer direct cash flow. Scaramucci highlighted innovative financial practices within the crypto ecosystem that provide returns similar to traditional cash flow, such as yield-generating accounts and borrowing agreements available through platforms like Galaxy Digital. Regarding potential market downturns akin to the dot-com bust, Scaramucci acknowledged the risks but remained optimistic about Bitcoin’s resilience and long-term value proposition. “I think if we go through a dot-com bust in the broader market in the next year or two, I think you’ll have a price shock in Bitcoin consistent with a dot-com bust. However, if you’re willing to hold that asset, which we are over a rolling four-year period of time, no one has ever lost money in Bitcoin,” he noted, underscoring the importance of a long-term investment horizon. At press time, the BTC price rallied back above $64,000. Featured image from Bloomberg, chart from TradingView.com
A record 27,700 Bitcoin was sent to ‘accumulation addresses’ on April 16, as the price of Bitcoin tumbled below $63,000.
With the fourth Bitcoin halving just 12 days away, the community is buzzing with anticipation, speculating on the potential for Bitcoin to breach the significant $100,000 threshold. Joe Consorti of Theya Research has offered a comprehensive analysis, diving into the intricacies of Bitcoin’s current market position and the factors that might catapult its value to new heights. This event, a cornerstone in Bitcoin’s design to halve the rewards for mining new blocks every four years, historically triggers a bullish momentum, and the present scenario appears to be aligning with past precedents. The Significance Of Bitcoin’s Consolidation Phase Consorti’s analysis titled, “Bitcoin’s 4th Halving Is [12] Days Away, and $100,000 Isn’t Much Further Behind It”, begins with a deep dive into Bitcoin’s ongoing consolidation phase, which he argues is a critical period that precedes a potential bull run. “Bitcoin continues its consolidation. In keeping with its previous phases of consolidation at $30k and $40k, BTC spends several weeks at key psychological price levels exchanging hands between buyers and sellers before advancing higher,” Consorti stated on X. Related Reading: FOMO Gives Way To Fear: Bitcoin-Ethereum Ratio Signals Shift In Crypto Sentiment He emphasizes that this is the sixth week of Bitcoin’s consolidation above $60,000, marking the least volatile period at this price level and following a new all-time high. This, according to Consorti, signals a strong market confidence that could be the foundation for the next surge. The analysis further explores the broader market dynamics, particularly the correlation breaks within the current cycle that have made the stock market an unreliable indicator of US economic sentiment. “The market at large has experienced massive correlation breaks this cycle […] This has a great deal to do with businesses extending their debt maturity during 2021 when rates were still low, and the US Treasury’s massive crisis-level fiscal deficit,” Consorti explains. He argues that these factors have contributed to the decoupling of traditional economic indicators from the stock market’s performance, inadvertently benefiting asset prices, including Bitcoin. The Role Of ETFs And The Spot Market A significant portion of Consorti’s analysis is dedicated to the behavior of Bitcoin ETFs and their interaction with the spot market. Despite a slowdown in net inflows to Bitcoin ETFs, the volume remains robust, indicating a healthy market. “This was one of the lowest weeks yet for BTC ETF inflows, although when you net in the outflows they are still healthy compared to previous weeks,” Consorti notes, suggesting that ETF shares are actively exchanging hands, mirroring the consolidation seen in the spot market. Related Reading: $115-Million Bitcoin Whale Wakes Up From 10-Year Slumber – What’s Next? This interplay between ETFs and the spot market, according to Consorti, provides a stable foundation for Bitcoin’s price, further solidifying the case for an impending bull run. “The funding rate is extremely muted, and we’re still at the same price [around $70,000]. In this period of consolidation, the spot market has really taken control of Bitcoin price action. This will mean more stable footing for the ensuing bull run, raising my confidence further that this consolidation is preceding a move higher rather than lower,” Consorti concluded. Expert Consensus On The Bullish Outlook Consorti’s optimistic forecast is echoed by other industry experts, who have also shared their bullish predictions. CRG, another renowned analyst, emphasized the significance of Bitcoin’s recent performance, stating, “Great weekly close. Fresh all-time highs this week,” indicating a positive momentum that could be sustained in the post-halving period. Great weekly close Fresh all time highs this week Source: my plums pic.twitter.com/wyxwomdDjZ — CRG (@MacroCRG) April 8, 2024 TechDev, a crypto analyst, highlighted a rare pattern in Bitcoin’s trading history: “It doesn’t happen often. Bitcoin closed 2 consecutive months over the upper Bollinger band. Each time it has then doubled within 3 months before the next red candle.” This historical pattern, if repeated, could potentially drive Bitcoin’s price way beyond $100,000. It doesn't happen often.#Bitcoin closed 2 consecutive months over the upper Bollinger band. Each time it has then doubled within 3 months before the next red candle. pic.twitter.com/veOOOmT8Id — TechDev (@TechDev_52) April 7, 2024 Daan Crypto Trades provided a technical perspective, focusing on Bitcoin’s resistance levels and potential targets: “Thoses previous ‘resistances’ didn’t end up putting much of a fight. It’s just the previous all-time high that’s making the price stall for the time being. Targets above are ideas for price discovery if we can leave this area behind us.” Daan’s targets are the 1.272 Fib at $83,562, the 1.414 Fib at $91,164 and the 1.618 Fib at $102,085.” #Bitcoin High Timeframe Level Cheat Sheet ✍️ Thoses previous "resistances" didn't end up putting much of a fight. It's just the previous all time high that's making price stall for the time being. Targets above are ideas for price discovery if we can leave this area behind us. https://t.co/AeP9vzOk7M pic.twitter.com/BWvcg8EjLE — Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) April 7, 2024 At press time, BTC traded at $69,739. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com
Founder and Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of Morgan Creek Capital Management, Mark Yusko has predicted a massive price increase for Bitcoin during the 2024 bull cycle. Emphasizing Bitcoin’s immense potential, the hedge fund manager has crowned it as the unrivaled “King” among digital assets. $150,000 Price Target Set For BTC Appearing in a recent interview with CNBC Television on March 27, Yusko shared a bold forecast of Bitcoin, predicting that the cryptocurrency will see a significant rise to $150,000 in 2024. When asked why he believes the cryptocurrency would have such an astronomical price increase, Yusko cited the impacts of the upcoming Bitcoin halving and Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Fund (ETF), on the price of BTC. The hedge fund manager has revealed that historically after a BTC halving cycle is completed, the fair value of the cryptocurrency rises. Related Reading: Dogecoin Price Breaks New 3-Year High – Here Are Factors That Could Drive The Price To $1 He explained that when the upcoming 2024 Bitcoin halving occurs in April, BTC miners will face challenges, with transaction fees poised to soar, consequently driving a price increase to $75,000. After the Bitcoin halving event, the cryptocurrency is expected to surge two times its fair value to $150,000. The hedge fund manager cited factors like increased interest from investors and Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) as triggers for this price spike. Yusko also revealed that after the Bitcoin halving, there would be a surge in demand for Spot Bitcoin ETFs, while the supply of new coins would decrease from 900 BTC to 450 BTC a day. “If there’s more demand than supply, price has to rise,” the hedge fund manager stated. The investment management CEO has expressed a strong belief in BTC’S value as one of the world’s leading digital assets. He envisions the cryptocurrency “easily” skyrocketing by 10x over the next decade. “Bitcoin is the king, it is the dominant token. It is a better form of gold or digital property. And I do think it will be the best,” Yusko said. Bitcoin Price Top Expected By Year’s End During his interview, Yusko predicted that Bitcoin could reach its peak price value by the end of 2024. The hedge fund manager disclosed that historically, nine months after a Bitcoin halving event, sometime in December, BTC undergoes a surge to its peak value before entering the next bear market. Related Reading: Shiba Inu Dips Below $0.00003 Again – Can Bulls Reverse The Bullish Momentum? During this time, the investment management CEO has stated that smaller crypto projects could potentially experience substantial increases, surpassing the gains witnessed by BTC. He disclosed several altcoins and investment assets that his company, Morgan Creek Capital Management, typically buys and HODLs, including Solana, Avalanche and Coinbase. BTC bulls and bears vie for control | Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview.com Featured image from Crypto News, chart from Tradingview.com
Charles Edwards, founder of the Bitcoin and digital asset hedge fund Capriole Investments, published a detailed examination of Bitcoin’s current market phase suggesting a bullish trajectory, potentially reaching the $100,000 mark. The analysis hinges on the identification of a Wyckoff ‘Sign of Strength’ (SOS), a concept derived from the century-old Wyckoff Method that studies supply and demand dynamics to forecast price movements. Understanding The Wyckoff ‘SOS’: Bitcoin To $100,000? The Wyckoff Method, developed by Richard D. Wyckoff, is a framework for understanding market structures and predicting future price movements through the analysis of price action, volume, and time. The ‘Sign of Strength’ (SOS) within this methodology signifies a point where the market shows evidence of demand overpowering supply, indicating a strong bullish outlook. Edwards’s observation of an SOS pattern in Bitcoin’s recent price movements suggests that the market is at a pivotal point, where sustained upward momentum is highly probable. In Capriole’s latest newsletter, Edwards offered a precise depiction of Bitcoin’s market behavior, highlighting a period of volatility and consolidation in the $60,000 to $70,000 range. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Flag Could Predict 10% Surge To $77,000, Analyst Explains This phase was anticipated by the hedge fund. Currently, as Bitcoin ventures above its last cycle’s all-time highs, it aligns with the predicted zig-zag SOS structure. Edwards elucidates, “It would not be surprising to see a liquidity grab at / into all-time highs […] All consolidation above the Monthly level at $56K is extremely bullish. It would be uncommon (but not impossible) for price to continue in a straight line up.” The “zig-zag” phase also perfectly aligns with the halving cycle as BTC tends to consolidate “both months either side of the Halving.” Edwards added that “the realities of a much lower supply growth rate + unlocked pent up tradfi demand will then kick-in and launch 12 months of historically the best risk-reward period for Bitcoin.” From a technical perspective, Bitcoin’s foray into price discovery territory above $70,000 is devoid of significant resistance levels. This opens a pathway to psychological and Fibonacci extension levels, with Edwards pinpointing $100,000 as the next major psychological resistance. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETF Inflows Could Eclipse $1 Trillion, Predicts Bitwise CIO The 1.618 Fibonacci extension from the 2021 high to the 2022 low is noted at $101,750, serving as a technical marker for potential resistance. Edwards reflects on investor sentiment, stating, “You can also imagine quite a few investors would be happy seeing six-digit Bitcoin and taking profit in that zone,” acknowledging the psychological impact of such milestones. BTC Fundamentals Support The Bull Case Edwards also delves into the importance of fundamentals, underscoring their role in providing a bullish backdrop for Bitcoin. The introduction of the Dynamic Range NVT (DRNVT), a unique metric to Capriole, indicates that Bitcoin is currently undervalued. Edwards describes DRNVT as “Bitcoin’s ‘PE Ratio'”, which assesses the network’s value by comparing on-chain transaction throughput to market capitalization. The current DRNVT readings suggest an attractive investment opportunity, given Bitcoin’s undervaluation at all-time price highs. “What’s fascinating at this point of the cycle is that DRNVT is currently in a value zone. With price at all time highs, this is a promising and unusual reading for the opportunity that lies ahead in 2024. It’s something we didn’t see in 2016 nor 2020,” Edwards remarked. With both technical indicators and fundamental analysis signaling a bullish future for Bitcoin, the anticipation surrounding the upcoming Halving event adds further momentum to the positive outlook. Despite the expectation of volatility and consolidation in the short term, Edwards confidently states, “probabilities are starting to skew to the upside once again.” At press time, BTC traded at $69,981. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView.com
The price of Bitcoin could increase by 6300% in the next 15 years, according to Giovanni Santostasi’s power law model.
Bitcoin last traded above $50,000 in December 2021 — more than two years ago. The crypto market looks very different this time around.
Any retrace in the price of Bitcoin over the next two weeks could be investors’ last chance to scoop up Bitcoin at “bargain-buying" prices, says pseudonymous trader Rekt Capital.