A second Trump presidency would be good for Bitcoin, a Standard Chartered Bank analyst says. A Harris win would be just OK for crypto.
Bitcoin price is up today as a recovery in the US job market, strong spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and impressive tech sector earnings data emerge.
As Bitcoin experiences a gradual recovery in its price performance, a new analysis sheds light on the cryptocurrency’s broader market stance. A CryptoQuant analyst known as “Crazzyblockk” recently shared an in-depth study on Bitcoin’s quarterly performance, focusing on key metrics like the asset’s market capitalization and realized capitalization. According to the analyst, examining these metrics every quarter can offer valuable insights into long-term trends and potential future price movements. Related Reading: Bitcoin Signal That Led To At Least 70% Surge Has Formed Again Current Market Signals Resemble 2021 Boom The analysis highlights how fluctuations in Bitcoin’s market cap and realized cap signal bullish and bearish trends over time. Market cap refers to the total value of all BTC in circulation, while realized cap measures the value based on the price at which each Bitcoin last moved. Historically, when the market cap grows faster than the realized cap, it often signals the beginning of selling pressure, leading to bear markets. Conversely, when the market cap declines while the realized cap holds steady or rises, Bitcoin tends to find its price bottom, indicating potential buying opportunities. Crazzyblockk’s analysis parallels Bitcoin’s current market situation and behavior during the 2021 boom. During that period, rapid market cap growth led to significant selling pressure, eventually correcting prices. According to the analyst, Bitcoin is currently in a similar position. While the market cap has seen a notable increase, the realized cap continues to rise, indicating the possibility of another major price correction on the horizon. The analyst’s study also points out that sustained growth in the realized cap, without corresponding support from the market cap, tends to trigger corrections as investors realize their profits. This phenomenon is particularly relevant in the current market environment, where Bitcoin’s price has surged in recent months but faces challenges in maintaining its upward trajectory. Crazzyblockk warns that a correction may be inevitable if Bitcoin’s market cap cannot sustain its current levels. Bitcoin Market Performance Meanwhile, Bitcoin appears to be seeing a cooling-off in the positive price performance seen earlier in recent weeks. So far, the asset has increased by nearly 10% in the past 14 days, reclaiming major highs and even approaching the $70,000 price mark with a high of $69,227 seen yesterday. Related Reading: Bitcoin Retail Activity Soars After 4-Month Slump—Would A 72% Rally Follow? However, the past-day performance of Bitcoin suggests a cool-off of this price increase. Over this period, Bitcoin had fallen below $67,000 with a current trading price of $66,980. Regardless of this price correction, some analysts remain bullish. Particularly, a renowned crypto analyst known as Moustache on X has recently highlighted in a recent post that “Bitcoin has broken out of a falling channel that has been in place for over 7 months.” The analyst added that this price action is “reminiscent” of 2020 before the rally. Commenting on the ongoing decline in BTC, the analyst said: “Are bears celebrating a retest? They will be surprised soon. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Sina—a professor, consultant, and co-founder & COO of 21stCapital.com—is projecting that the Bitcoin price could rise as high as $285,000 by the end of 2025 in a new analysis shared on X. Utilizing a quantile regression model, Sina identifies distinct phases in Bitcoin’s market cycle. Can Bitcoin Price Skyrocket Above $200,000? The model identifies the Cold Zone (66%), ranges from $136,000 to $285,000. This zone is characterized by heightened volatility and significant price swings as mass adoption peaks and leveraged positions become prevalent. While there is substantial room for upside, the risk of reversals escalates rapidly. Sina advises investors to either hold and enjoy potential gains or consider gradually exiting positions based on risk assessments, particularly since historical tops occur in the 90th to 99th quantile range. Notably, the 90th quantile starts at $211,000. What astonishes Sina is how these 33% quantile ranges align seamlessly with Bitcoin’s historical phase transitions. He notes that Bitcoin tends to spend exactly one-third of its time in each zone before transitioning to the next, almost like clockwork. This pattern means that most of the bear market occurs below the 33% quantile, while bull market euphoria begins above the 66% quantile. Renowned crypto analyst PlanC (@TheRealPlanC) acknowledged Sina’s model, commenting that it is a “perfect explanation—super clear.” Sina, in turn, credited PlanC for the foundational work that influenced his own model. Related Reading: 7 Reasons To Be Bullish On Bitcoin This Week PlanC has also recently updated his “Power Law Probability Model,” which forecasts Bitcoin prices ranging from $189,733 to $245,264 for the 97% to 99.9% quantile and $145,182 to $189,733 for the 90% to 97% quantile. He emphasizes that despite appearances, the underlying data follows a power-law relationship, independent of how it’s plotted—be it linear, log-linear, or log-log scales. “The data follows a log-log relationship with quantile regressions, whereas the rainbow chart uses logarithmic regression with a log-linear relationship. […] I am not ‘drawing’ these lines. These are quantile regressions of the log of price vs. time, based on all the data we have to date,” he explains. To contextualize the model’s predictive capabilities, PlanC elaborates on the significance of various quantiles. The 99.9% quantile means the price has been above this line only 0.1% of the time, equating to just one day out of every 1,000 days—a very rare event. The 99% quantile indicates the price has exceeded this line 1% of the time, or one day out of every 100 days, also considered rare. Conversely, the 0.1% quantile reflects that the price has fallen below this line only 0.1% of the time. At press time, BTC traded at $67,121. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin has recently seen an uptick in retail investor activity following months of subdued participation, according to a report by CryptoQuant analyst caueconomy. The analyst highlighted this in a post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, disclosing how this return in retail demand could be one of the signs of a bull market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Investors Watch Out: Miners Showing Unusual Exchange Inflow Activity Bitcoin Retail Activity Returns After 4-Month Decline The CryptoQuant analyst noted that on-chain transaction volumes of up to $10,000—a key indicator of retail investment—have increased by approximately 13% in the past 30 days. This marks a shift after four months, during which smaller investors were largely inactive. caueconomy wrote: Note that in the last 4 months we have seen a decrease in the activity of these small investors, while whales maintained a high amount of transactions and absorption of coins. The analyst further explained that the increase in small investor activity is typically more sensitive to market sentiment and news than fundamental factors. Additionally, it provides an early indicator of capital flows into the Bitcoin network. As mentioned by caueconomy, this rise in retail demand, which hasn’t been observed since March, could signal the beginning of a trend toward “lower risk aversion” among non-institutional market participants. Notably, this increase in small investor activity comes at a time when Bitcoin’s price has seen constant increase in the past week, with the cryptocurrency recently attempting to reclaim the $70,000 mark. An Outlook On BTC’s Price—72% Rally Next? While retail demand appears to be returning, Bitcoin faces a minor retracement after its recent attempt to break the $70,000 price mark earlier today. The crypto asset reached a high of $69,431 earlier today but has since fallen by 2.4% in the past 24 hours, bringing the current price down to $66,951. Despite this slight dip, market sentiment among analysts remains optimistic about Bitcoin’s future potential. One notable analyst, Javon Marks, recently took to X to express his bullish outlook for Bitcoin. Marks highlighted a potential 72% price increase that could push Bitcoin to $116,000 or higher. Related Reading: Bitcoin Whales ‘Grew Substantially’ During Last Dip, Data Shows Large-Holder Accumulation According to his analysis, Bitcoin has been working around a key price level of $67,559. Despite the recent pullback, several bullish patterns—such as Hidden Bullish Divergences—suggest that Bitcoin may soon break above this level. If Bitcoin successfully crosses this threshold, it could increase price movement toward $116,652. Back to the basics for #Bitcoin (BTC) again and a >72% move to $116,000+ still looks likely ⚡️! In this setup, we see Bitcoin working on a key level at $67,559, after a monumental, more than 333% climb to reach + break above it before pulling back since March. Now, during this… https://t.co/iocZrLlRGx pic.twitter.com/XCrjd56w3W — JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) October 21, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Never has cryptocurrency been so connected with the US elections, the outcome of which could trigger a full-on bull market. What are the prospects if Trump wins?
After briefly rising above $63,000 in recent days, renewing investor’s hope on “uptober,” Bitcoin has once again dampened this excitement by decreasing to as low as the $60,000 region today. This unappealing performance has led to a CryptoQuant analyst, Aytekin, raising and sharing insight on an important question: “Is it reasonable to expect a final shakeout before the next big move?” Related Reading: Is The Worst Over For Bitcoin? Analyst Suggests Local Bottom May Be Here Bitcoin Next Move: Major Correction Looming? In a recent post on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, the analyst explained that Bitcoin is currently in a high open interest zone, having exceeded the critical $18 billion level. Historically, when open interest levels reached this point, major corrections followed. The analyst mentioned that the current market sentiment appears divided, noting: The market seems indecisive in many aspects, with some believing that the next big upside move is on the horizon, while others think BTC’s downward trend remains strong. A common belief is that BTC may need a final shakeout before surging to a new all-time high (ATH). Aytekin added that funding rates, though slightly above the 200-day simple moving average (SMA), suggest that long traders are still dominant. However, significant price corrections in the past often occurred when funding rates turned negative, which hasn’t happened yet. Aytekin concluded that, while a final shakeout might occur, the depth of the correction may not be as severe given the relatively moderate funding rates. BTC Price Outlook As Bitcoin has struggled to break through key resistance levels, its recent price action reflects ongoing market indecision. Over the past few weeks, Bitcoin maintained stability above the $60,000 mark, but failed to make a major move to reclaim $70,000. In the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has slipped by 2.9%, currently trading at $60,485. This decline follows the asset’s brief surge to $63,774 earlier in the week, which sparked optimism for a possible move toward the $65,000 and then $70,000 mark. Prominent crypto analyst Ali recently commented on Bitcoin’s price action, noting that Bitcoin is still trading within a “descending parallel channel.” According to Ali, the asset was rejected at the upper boundary of this channel, signalling the potential for further downside. “We might see a drop to the middle boundary at $58,000 or even the lower boundary at $52,000,” Ali noted in a post on X. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Path To $80,000 “Melt-Up” In Q4 2024 – Details Inside He emphasized that a bullish breakout is unlikely unless Bitcoin clears the $66,000 level, a price point that has acted as a significant resistance point in recent weeks. #Bitcoin remains stuck in a descending parallel channel. After the recent rejection at the upper boundary, we might see a drop to the middle boundary at $58,000 or even the lower boundary at $52,000. A bullish breakout won’t happen until $BTC clears $66,000! pic.twitter.com/yFvS6jxmKB — Ali (@ali_charts) October 9, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has recently seen quite an interesting trend in its key metrics suggesting a significant movement ahead, according to a post by CryptoQuant analyst Amr Taha. The post, shared on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, highlights notable changes in both long-term and short-term holder behaviour of Bitcoin, as well as in realized profit and loss figures. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Non-Realized Profits Hit Negative Levels—What Does This Mean for Investors? Key Bitcoin Metrics Suggesting Market Shifts Taha begins by explaining the fundamental difference between short-term and long-term Bitcoin holders. Short-term holders (STH) are traders who engage in brief buying and selling activities, often employing strategies like day trading or swing trading to capitalize on Bitcoin’s price fluctuations. On the other hand, long-term holders (LTH) adopt a buy-and-hold strategy, aiming for long-term gains by holding onto their Bitcoin for extended periods. This distinction sets the stage for understanding the recent changes in market activity. In his analysis, Taha noted a sharp decline in the realized capitalization for long-term holders, which dropped from $19 billion to -$5 billion. This indicates that long-term holders have been taking profits or closing their positions, potentially signalling reduced confidence in further price gains. On the flip side, short-term holders have increased their buying activity, with their realized capitalization rising from -$17 billion to $11 billion. This suggests that short-term traders either take on more risk or bet on potential price increases, creating a more volatile market environment. Additionally, Taha touched on the Korea Premium Index, often called the “Kimchi Premium.” This index tracks the price difference between Bitcoin traded on South Korean and global exchanges. Currently, the index is near zero or negative, meaning Bitcoin is trading at a lower price in South Korea than the rest of the world. This implies reduced buying pressure from Korean traders, who have historically played a large role in increasing cryptocurrency prices due to the local trading culture. A negative premium suggests low demand from South Korean investors, potentially adding to the market’s uncertainty. Net Realized Profit And Loss Trends Another key metric Taha focused on is Bitcoin’s net realized profit and loss (NRPL), which tracks market participants’ total net profit or loss. Positive NRPL values indicate that more investors are taking profits, while negative values suggest more losses are being realized. Currently, the NRPL is approaching a critical $4 billion mark. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Forecast: This Week’s Trends And Historical Patterns For Q4 Taha highlighted that crossing the $4 billion threshold in past market cycles has often coincided with significant market peaks or troughs. The red line marking the $4 billion level across the chart (above) represents a key point of market activity. According to the analyst, when NRPL crosses this line, it can indicate a surge in trading activity as more investors either lock in their profits or cut their losses. Taha further pointed out that these points have historically been pivotal moments in Bitcoin’s price action, and the current proximity to this level suggests that another significant market movement could be on the horizon. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
A CryptoQuant analyst known as “caueconomy” recently published a post indicating that Bitcoin (BTC) may have reached a local bottom. The analyst points to a significant liquidation event as a key sign that a short-term recovery could be on the horizon. Although caueconomy acknowledged that Bitcoin has been going through a period marked by bearish price sentiment and technical indicators suggesting potential further decline, the analyst also highlighted that emerging signs may indicate a stabilization in the asset’s price. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miner Selloff Is Calming Down: Green Sign For Rally To Continue? How Is BTC Long Liquidations Suggesting Local Bottom? The post by caueconomy on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform titled “Liquidation of long positions may have established a local bottom” sheds light on how long-position liquidations in the futures market could influence Bitcoin’s price. Caueconomy elaborates that in the face of notable price declines, long contracts bought on future exchanges tend to experience sharp reductions due to mass liquidations. This process, in turn, diminishes the selling pressure that often exacerbates price drops, potentially setting the stage for a recovery in the asset’s price in the short term. On October 1st, over 4,000 BTC long positions were liquidated, marking the second-largest liquidation event of 2024 based on data compiled by CryptoQuant. The analyst mentioned that such significant liquidation events often indicate potential market reversals or local bottoms, as the selling pressure from these positions is removed from the market. However, caueconomy points out that it is crucial to keep a close eye on the buying strength to gauge whether it can offset the decline and facilitate recovery. The analyst advises that although the current range may be sustained in the short term, the potential for upward movement is contingent on renewed buying interest and market activity. The analyst concluded in the post: At this point, the price is likely to sustain the current range in the short term, but it will be necessary to watch the buying strength to be able to recover the decline. Is there Any Sign Of Buying Interest In Bitcoin Currently? So far, Bitcoin appears to be seeing a gradual rebound in price registering a 3.5% increase in the past day to reclaim the $62,000 mark. At the time of writing, the asset currently trades for $62,238. This increase in BTC has been reflected in the overall crypto market, with the global crypto market cap now up by 2% in the past day to a current valuation of 2.26 trillion. Meanwhile, a renowned crypto analyst known as Ali on X recently reported a form of Bitcoin buying interest ongoing on an exchange. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin On The Brink Of A Reversal? Here’s What This Key Indicator Suggests In a post uploaded earlier today on X, Ali pointed out that there has been a surge in the Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on OKX, the fourth-largest cryptocurrency exchange by 24-hour trading volume. There was a spike in the #Bitcoin Taker Buy/Sell Ratio on @okx! This indicates a surge in aggressive buying — a sign of upward momentum ahead! pic.twitter.com/QgZ9qkhSls — Ali (@ali_charts) October 4, 2024 This spike in the ratio indicates an increase in aggressive buying activity within the market, a potential sign of renewed upward momentum. Such behavior often reflects increased confidence from buyers, hinting at the possibility of a price recovery or a new upward trend. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Lekker Capital chief investment officer Quinn Thomspon says this week’s Bitcoin dip shows a “clear invalidation” when compared to previous price stumbles.
A Bitcoin researcher says a quasi-exponential decay trend could even see BTC's price going as high as $300,000 in 2025.
Bitcoin has seen an uptick in price enough to recover from the losses in value from August. So far, the asset has surged by nearly 10% in the past two weeks alone, registering a 24-hour high of $66,000 earlier today, although BTC has now seen a slight retracement, currently trading at $63,508. Amid this price performance, Axel Adler Jr, an analyst from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, has shed light on the potential for Bitcoin to see a bigger rally shortly based on key indicators. Related Reading: Bitcoin Set For Biggest September Gains In A Decade: Here’s Why Bitcoin Key Indicator Pointing To A Bigger Rally According to Adler, a significant shift observed in Bitcoin’s market activity appears to suggest that the crypto market might be gearing up for a bullish momentum soon. One of the focal points of Adler’s analysis is the “Exchange Flow Multiple,” which plays a crucial role in understanding the movement of Bitcoin on exchanges. This indicator measures the ratio between short-term (30-day) and long-term (365-day) Bitcoin inflows and outflows on exchanges. When this multiple declines, short-term exchange movements are considerably lower than long-term ones, which could point to decreased volatility. Adler Jr elaborates on this by highlighting two primary factors that influence the decline of Bitcoin Exchange Flow Multiple. The CryptoQuant analyst mentioned Long-Term Holders Retaining Assets as the first factor. Also referred to as “HODLers,” long-term Bitcoin holders when not actively trading their assets, preferring to hold onto them with the expectation of future price increases, can lead to a decline in exchange flow multiple. The analyst also draws attention to the natural market correction and recovery process. The market typically needs time to stabilize after significant drops in Bitcoin’s price. This stabilization period reduces exchange activity as investors wait for a clearer price direction. Adler Jr noted that a low exchange flow multiple in such contexts might reflect a “wait-and-see” attitude among investors, anticipating a favorable price shift before they re-enter the market actively. Drawing Parallels To 2023’s Bull Market Adler Jr’s analysis further indicates that the current behavior of the Exchange Flow Multiple resembles patterns seen before previous rallies. Notably, similar low levels of the indicator were observed before the major market uptrend in 2023. Related Reading: Bitcoin Breaks $66,000, But Analyst Warns Against Fresh Longs—Here’s Why The CryptoQuant analyst disclosed that if history were to repeat itself, the current situation might set the stage for the next significant upward movement in Bitcoin’s price. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin could rally as high as $65,000 following expected rate cuts later this week but analysts fear US election uncertainty could keep crypto asset prices lower for longer.
Bitcoin futures CME gaps have been filled by price every time over the past quarter, and over the weekend, another gap was formed near $54,000.
Following its renewed peak above $73,000 back in March, Bitcoin has been experiencing a prolonged period of price stagnation ever since, leaving many investors wondering about the potential for future movements. According to a recent analysis by a CryptoQuant analyst under the pseudonym ‘Avocado,’ this stagnation may bear a resemblance to a similar pattern observed in 2019. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Recovery Rally: Breaking Through This Level Is Key To Bullish Momentum – Analyst Why Is Bitcoin Price Still Below $60,000? In the report uploaded on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, the analyst suggests that the lack of volatility in Bitcoin’s price is largely due to the increased prevalence of over-the-counter (OTC) trading compared to exchange-based trading, which has reduced the frequency and intensity of price fluctuations. This conclusion was made after the analyst assessed one of Bitcoin’s key metrics—lifespan of UTXOs (Unspent Transaction Outputs)—which is used to analyze investor behavior. By examining UTXOs held for less than six months, the analyst classifies these holders as new investors and compares their behavior to similar periods in previous market cycles. The data reveals a small peak in UTXOs under six months, which closely mirrors a structure seen in 2019. These new investors likely entered the market around March of this year when Bitcoin’s price peaked, according to the analyst. However, as the price has remained stagnant, many of these investors may have exited the market due to losses, while others have transitioned into the six-month-and-above holding category, the analyst added. The 2019 Pattern And What It Signals For Current Market The analyst, Avocado, further explained that this similar pattern, which was also observed in 2019, occurred around the time of the halving event, which eventually led to a new all-time high (ATH) for Bitcoin. However, it took approximately 490 days for Bitcoin to reach this ATH, a timeline that was also influenced by the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. With Bitcoin’s price stuck in a large range for more than six months, the current situation raises questions about the potential for a similar outcome. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin’s Rally Over? Top Analysts Predict Imminent Price Corrections The analyst remains confident in the long-term upward trend of Bitcoin but advises caution in the short term. Avocado noted: Currently, Bitcoin’s price has been stuck in a large range for more than six months, with no clear trigger for a breakout. While I have no doubt about the long-term upward trend, in the short term, I believe it’s wise to temper expectations and closely monitor the market. Historically, the influx of capital from new investors has been a critical condition for Bitcoin’s price increases. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin, after experiencing a blood bath last Month, several analysts have re-analyzed its price action to see what this new month of September might hold for the Bitcoin Market. Amongst them, a renowned crypto analyst known as Mags on X has recently shared an insightful perspective on Bitcoin’s current market behavior in one of his latest posts. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Momentum at Risk? NVT Golden Cross Sends Warning Signals Is Bitcoin Primed For A September Rally? Mags pointed out that Bitcoin has been in a long consolidation phase since March and is now entering its seventh month. He drew a parallel to a similar pattern observed last year, where Bitcoin also began its consolidation in March, only to start recovering by September. According to Mags, over the following seven months, Bitcoin experienced a 195% increase in price. So far, this historical pattern has raised whether September will again serve as a pivotal month for Bitcoin. #Bitcoin – september is a bearish month ? We all know Bitcoin has been stuck in a long consolidation phase for the past few months. This sideways PA began in March and is still ongoing. But what if I told you we saw a similar pattern last year? Back then, the consolidation… pic.twitter.com/8PJ8MMNEUR — Mags (@thescalpingpro) September 2, 2024 Bitcoin is showing signs of a bearish trend, having fallen below the psychological $60,000 level. Over the past week, the cryptocurrency has seen a 9.9% decline. However, there seems to be a slight recovery in progress, with BTC currently trading at $58,411, up 0.3% in the past 24 hours. Next Moves Expected From BTC In response to Bitcoin’s recent price action, prominent crypto analyst Captain Faibik offered his outlook, suggesting that BTC is still moving within a bullish flag pattern. According to Faibik, there is a possibility that Bitcoin may test the $54,000 support area once again. He emphasized the importance of bulls defending this level, as a bounce back from $54,000 could potentially lead to a rally up to $68,000 in September. This scenario aligns with Mags’ theory that September could be a turning point for Bitcoin, mirroring last year’s price recovery. Adding to the discussion, another well-known analyst, Willy Woo, provided insights on the supply dynamics affecting Bitcoin’s price. Woo noted that the influx of BTC from sources such as Germany’s Mt. Gox and the US Department of Justice is gradually being “absorbed” by the market. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Breakout Blueprint: Analyst Reveals Roadmap For Imminent Surge He also observed that paper BTC bets are declining, which he interprets as a positive sign. Overall, Woo suggested that the market sentiment has shifted from bearish towards neutral, indicating that the worst sell-off may be over. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart
Analysts say upcoming rate cuts could be a boon for Bitcoin’s price action but the market is still in “wait and see” mode.
Bitcoin market performance and historical patterns continue to interest analysts and investors, with many of them using this to gauge what and how the asset is likely to move in the future. According to Mags, a well-known crypto analyst, Bitcoin may follow a familiar pattern observed in previous cycles, where the cryptocurrency reaches its peak several months after the halving event. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To ‘Chop’ Around This Range Until Q4, Analysts Say Peak Will Be 2025, But What Price Target? In a recent post on X, Mags highlighted the notable gains Bitcoin experienced in the aftermath of previous halvings, suggesting that if history repeats itself, Bitcoin could top out between June and October 2025, approximately 400-550 days from now. Mags noted that in the 2013 cycle, Bitcoin surged by more than 9,500%, peaking 406 days after the halving. The 2017 cycle also saw a 4,100% increase, with Bitcoin topping out 511 days post-halving. Additionally. in 2021, Bitcoin’s gains were more modest, with a 636% increase, peaking 546 days after the halving. Currently, Bitcoin is in a consolidation phase following its recent halving, and Mags speculates that even if the growth in this cycle is just half of what was seen in previous cycles, it could still result in a 300% increase from current levels, pushing Bitcoin’s price to around $200,000. #Bitcoin – When Will Bitcoin Top Out? Bitcoin has shown a pattern in previous cycles where it tops out several months after the halving event. In 2013, Bitcoin pumped by over 9,500% and peaked 406 days after the halving. In 2017, it climbed by 4,100%, reaching its peak 511… pic.twitter.com/VMuZ88BJ5M — Mags (@thescalpingpro) August 26, 2024 Bitcoin Current Market Performance Despite the optimistic long-term outlook, Bitcoin’s short-term performance has shown weakness. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin’s price has declined by 2.1%, bringing it down to a current trading price of $61,911 at the time of writing. This decline is reflected in Bitcoin’s market capitalization, which has seen approximately $27 billion flow out over the same period. Interestingly, despite the price drop, Bitcoin’s daily trading volume has increased significantly, rising from $24 billion yesterday to over $28 billion today. In addition to these market movements, there has been notable activity in Bitcoin’s exchange netflows. A recent report from a CryptoQuant analyst highlighted several instances of large negative netflows, where significant amounts of Bitcoin were withdrawn from exchanges. The report pointed to three dates: July 5th, July 16th, and August 27th, where 60,000 BTC, 50,000 BTC, and 45,000 BTC, respectively, were withdrawn from exchanges. Related Reading: Data Shows Sellers Have Returned To Bitcoin: Is A Major Price Drop On The Horizon? It is worth noting that large negative netflows like these are generally seen as a bullish indicator, as they suggest that investors might be moving their Bitcoin off exchanges to hold for the long term, potentially reducing selling pressure in the market. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
As August draws to a close, Bitcoin price action has caught the attention of market analysts who believe the current monthly candle could be one of the most significant in the cryptocurrency’s history. The end-of-month price movement has sparked discussions about a potential trend reversal, particularly among those closely following technical analysis. However, while some analysts are optimistic, others urge caution, reminding traders that the month is not over, and external factors could still influence Bitcoin’s trajectory. Related Reading: Bitcoin And NASDAQ Show Tight Correlation: What Does This Mean For BTC? August Candle Shows Dragonfly Doji One of the most intriguing aspects of the current Bitcoin price chart is the formation of a potential “dragonfly doji” candlestick on the monthly time frame. In a recent post on X, an analyst from HODL15Capital referred to this candle as “arguably the most interesting monthly candle in Bitcoin’s history.” Notably, the dragonfly doji is a Japanese candlestick pattern that typically indicates a potential reversal in price direction. It forms when the open, high, and close prices are nearly the same, but the low price is significantly lower, creating a long lower shadow. This pattern often suggests that sellers were in control during the early part of the month, but buyers pushed the price back up by the close, signaling strong bullish momentum. Bitcoin Bulls About To Take Over? The potential dragonfly doji on Bitcoin’s monthly chart has sparked optimism among some traders and analysts who believe it could indicate a strong reversal in Bitcoin’s price trend. Javon Marks, a well-known crypto analyst on X, commented on the significance of this monthly candle. He noted that if Bitcoin closes the month with a dragonfly doji, it would represent the largest seller rejection (the strongest bull presence) since March 2020. Marks further pointed out that a similar pattern in 2020 preceded one of Bitcoin’s most significant bullish movements during the previous bull cycle, suggesting that history could repeat itself. However, while forming a dragonfly doji is often seen as a bullish signal, it’s worth noting that it does not guarantee future price action. The pattern indicates that the market has rejected lower prices, but it doesn’t necessarily mean a sustained uptrend will follow. As some have cautioned, the month is not yet over; therefore, the candles are yet to close, and a lot can change in the 4 days of trading left. Related Reading: Expert Explains Why Bitcoin Price Could Explode To $1 Million This Cycle Additionally, fundamental factors such as macroeconomic events, particularly the US news event set to occur this week or perhaps market sentiment, can all play a significant role in determining Bitcoin’s next move. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin has been experiencing a notable increase in market activity, with recent movements indicating that sellers are becoming more active. A Major Price Drop On The Horizon? According to a post by XBTManager, a contributor on the CryptoQuant QuickTake platform, Bitcoin’s price rise last week, which saw it temporarily break out of its recent range, was accompanied by a surge in volatility. Related Reading: Bitcoin Poised for a 200% Rally as Analyst Spot Rare Bullish Pattern This uptick in activity included a significant transfer of Bitcoin by short-term holders, with 33,155 BTC moved, as indicated by the 1-week to 1-month spent output age bands. This transfer of assets, particularly by short-term holders, could signal an immediate selling pressure on the market, potentially leading to a short-term price pullback. Meanwhile, despite the chances of a major drop on the horizon given the gradual increase in sellers, Bitcoin has recently managed to reclaim the $65,000 mark, albeit briefly; it has since retraced and is currently trading below this level. As of the time of writing, Bitcoin is holding steady at around $63,000, reflecting a 1.2% decline over the past 24 hours. The report suggests that if the activity within these age bands continues to increase, traders should exercise caution as the selling pressure could intensify, leading to further volatility in the Bitcoin market. Short Term Price Outlook On Bitcoin Amid these developments, renowned crypto analyst Ali has shared his short-term outlook for Bitcoin, focusing on its current price action. In a post published today on X, Ali noted that Bitcoin appears to be trading within a parallel channel in the lower time frames. For context, a parallel channel refers to a chart pattern that forms between two parallel lines, where the price of an asset moves back and forth between the upper and lower boundaries of the channel. The upper boundary typically acts as resistance, while the lower boundary supports. Analysts often look for breakouts above or below these channels to signal potential reversals or continuations of a trend. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Ready to Soar? Key Indicators Signal Potential $72K Target Ali pointed out that if Bitcoin’s support at $63,500 holds, the cryptocurrency could rebound to $64,200 or even $64,800. However, if the support level fails, a drop to $62,800 might be on the horizon. #Bitcoin seems to be trading within a parallel channel on the lower time frames. If the $63,500 support holds, $BTC could bounce back to $64,200 or even $64,800. However, if it breaks, a drop to $62,800 might be on the horizon! pic.twitter.com/4hROkZxQNp — Ali (@ali_charts) August 26, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Bitcoin appears to be entering a rebound phase, given its recent increase that brought the asset’s price close to the $66,000 mark. Particularly, after briefly touching a 24-hour high of $64,893 earlier today, Bitcoin has retraced slightly, now trading at $63,786, reflecting a minor 0.2% decline over the past day. Despite this slight pullback, analysts remain divided on the immediate future of Bitcoin, with some pointing to key technical levels that could determine the next significant move. Related Reading: Crypto Analyst Sounds Alarm: Here’s Why It’s Your ‘Last Chance To Buy Bitcoin’ Next Step For Bitcoin Renowned crypto analyst, Emperor on X, shared his insights on Bitcoin’s price action earlier today. In a detailed post, Emperor noted that Bitcoin had successfully bounced from a critical support zone of around $58,000, which he had previously identified as a potential buy zone. According to Emperor, Bitcoin has now reclaimed the 200-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA) on the 4-hour chart, which he views as a positive development. He highlighted that Bitcoin’s recent price movement, including front-running the quarterly open and sweeping weekend range lows, is characteristic of a strong uptrend. Emperor suggested that while Bitcoin may not see a continuous upward push this week, it remains bullish, with the next target being the monthly open. The analyst concluded, noting: I will be taking some profits on swing positions. Ultimate direction is up but now is the time to take profit on Bitcoin gradually while you bid alts. Is Another Noticeable Correction Going To Happen? While Emperor’s analysis points to a bullish outlook for Bitcoin, other analysts are more cautious. Macro Johanning, another well-known figure in the crypto space, provided an update on Bitcoin’s recent price action, noting that Bitcoin had recently swept the high at $65,100. Johanning suggested that this move to the upside might have temporarily exhausted Bitcoin’s bullish momentum, potentially leading to a dip to around $61,000 before further upward movement. He highlighted the importance of upcoming economic data releases in Bitcoin’s short-term direction. Johanning pointed to several key events scheduled for the week, including the release of US Consumer Confidence data on Tuesday, Nvidia’s earnings report on Wednesday, Q2 2024 GDP data, and July Pending Home Sales on Thursday, followed by July PCE Inflation data on Friday. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Faces Challenge at $65K: Can It Break Through? These events will likely influence market sentiment and add volatility to Bitcoin’s price action. According to Johanning, Bitcoin’s next significant resistance level is around $67,000, which could become a target once the consolidation phase resolves. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Henrik Zeberg, Head Macro Economist at Swissblock, has reasserted his prediction that a US recession is inevitable, but not before a dramatic upswing in financial markets, including a substantial rally for Bitcoin to heights between $115,000 and $120,000. In his most recent analysis posted on X, Zeberg expounded upon the cyclical nature of markets and how they align with historical economic indicators and current fiscal policies. “REMEMBER!? In December 2022, everybody was BEARISH! I was BULLISH! We were told that ‘Imminent Crash’ was ahead of us – despite the fact that the market bottomed in October 2022,” Zeberg reiterated in his post. He laid out his refined predictions for major market indices and Bitcoin, pointing to a forthcoming “Blow Off Top”. Bitcoin Faces Its First Recession Ever A “blow-off top” refers to a sharp, rapid increase in the price in financial markets, followed by an equally sharp decline. This pattern is characterized by intense buying pressure that drives prices to extreme highs, often driven by speculative or euphoric behavior among traders. This surge in prices is usually unsustainable, leading to a significant sell-off as traders take profits or react to overbought conditions. Related Reading: These Are The Biggest Bitcoin Support & Resistance Zones, Analyst Reveals The blow of the top predicted by Zeberg could be triggered by the US Federal Reserve injecting massive amounts of liquidity into circulation to prevent a recession. Based on this, Zeberg forecast that the S&P 500 will rise to 6,100-6,300, the Nasdaq to 24,000-25,000, the Dow Jones Industrial Average to roughly 45,000, and Bitcoin to $115,000-120,000. Zeberg’s bullish stance contrasts starkly with his dire prediction for the post-rally period. “Now….. we are not at the top – yet! But Recession IS coming – and it will be the worst since 1929. Major Bear market (in 2 phases; Deflationary and Stagflationary – separated by a mid-way bounce as Fed enters in 2025),” he explained, suggesting a complex recessionary cycle influenced by both market dynamics and Federal Reserve (Fed) policies. The economist’s skepticism toward the effectiveness of impending Federal Reserve rate cuts is rooted in a detailed critique of similar historical measures. Despite the market’s expectation of a 25 basis points cut at the next FOMC meeting in September—a move supported by 73.5% of market participants (according to the CME FedWatch tool), with a smaller fraction (26.5%) anticipating a more aggressive 50 basis points cut—Zeberg remains unconvinced these will forestall recessionary pressures. Related Reading: September 10: A Bitcoin Game Changer, Says Hedge Fund Founder “But… but… Fed rate cuts…. ?? The Global Economy is breaking. US Recession begins December 2024,” Zeberg stated, reflecting his belief that short-term liquidity injections are insufficient to counteract deeper economic malaises. He points to the liquidity cycle metrics comparable to those seen in 2007, questioning the effectiveness of such strategies in preventing the 2008 financial crisis. Furthermore, Zeberg highlights the recent end of the inversion between the US. 2-year and 10-year Treasury yields, traditionally viewed as a predictor of economic downturns. The inversion, where short-term yields exceed long-term yields, is typically a signal of investor uncertainty about the near-term economic outlook. Another pillar of Zeberg’s argument is the recent job market data. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics revised its March 2024 total employment estimates downward by 818,000—the largest revision in 15 years—indicating significant weakness in the job market, far more pronounced than initial estimates suggested. “Economy much weaker than expected,” Zeberg commented. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $60,764. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The metrics suggest that Bitcoin is unlikely to be overvalued at current levels and its price action is developing “steadily without significant anomalies or sharp jumps.”
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market cap appears to have “bottomed out” and is now poised to surge above $150,000, according to prominent crypto analyst Captain Faibik. This insight from the analyst comes as Bitcoin currently sees a sign of rebound, reclaiming the $60,000 mark following its recent plunge below $59,000. Related Reading: Legendary Fibonacci Extension Reveals When Bitcoin Will Reach $109,000 A $150,000 Surge On The Horizon In his recent post on X, Captain Faibik disclosed a distinct pattern known as the Descending Broadening Wedge found on the BTC chart. This technical pattern typically indicates bullish potential, suggesting that an upward breakout is highly probable after a period of price declines and increasing volatility. Faibik elaborates that we are currently in what he describes as the “Accumulation phase,” which historically precedes significant bullish rallies. This phase is characterized by investors purchasing the asset at lower prices, gearing up for anticipated future gains. The sentiment is supported by the severe price drops in altcoins, with a 60-70% decline since March 2024. Since the March 2024 high, the Markets have been moving in a Descending Broadening Wedge Pattern. We are currently in the Accumulation phase, just before the Next Massive Bullish Rally. Most altcoins are down 60-70% since the March high, and I know Altcoin holders are… pic.twitter.com/ttWsBwMbOJ — Captain Faibik (@CryptoFaibik) August 11, 2024 Captain Faibik is optimistic about Bitcoin’s price trajectory, drawing parallels to previous cycles. He recalls the period around August-September 2023 when BTC traded between $17,000 and $18,000. According to Faibik, those who heeded his advice to buy during that time saw Bitcoin’s value soar to $74,000. Revealing the current outlook, Faibik noted: Now, I’m telling you again to Accumulate. Bitcoin will likely surpass $150k this time. Keep accumulating the dips and Building your Portfolio for the 2024-25 bullrun. Bitcoin Rainbow Chart Outlook Echoing Fabric’s analysis, another analyst, Lark Davis, points to the Bitcoin Rainbow chart, which currently shows Bitcoin in the “accumulation zone.” Based on historical data, investors use this tool to gauge market sentiment and potential price movements. According to Davis, if BTC reaches the “FOMO Intensifies” zone, as it did in the last cycle, it could skyrocket to between $150,000 and $190,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Trims Gains: Is the Rally Losing Steam? Davis advises investors to consider accumulating BTC during these dips, suggesting that we are in an optimal phase for building positions in anticipation of the next market surge. The Bitcoin Rainbow chart shows that $BTC is currently in the accumulation zone. Last cycle, we topped in the “FOMO Intensifies” zone. If we reach that zone this cycle, $BTC could go anywhere between $150K–$190K. Where do you think we top this cycle? pic.twitter.com/STuOwmoN68 — Lark Davis (@TheCryptoLark) August 12, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
The price of Bitcoin has maintained a consistent decline over the past week following several economic and market developments. According to data from CoinMarketCap, the premier cryptocurrency currently hovers around the $60,000 price zone, having lost over 11.17% of its market value in the last seven days. As many crypto enthusiasts may hope Bitcoin finds some stability soon, CryptoQuant analyst abramchat has predicted a reverse scenario, indicating the crypto market leader may experience more losses in the coming days. Related Reading: Wondering When To Buy Bitcoin? Here Are The Levels To Watch Bitcoin Price Far From Recovery? In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, abramchat stated that amidst the recent market downturn, Bitcoin has now lost a vital short-term support at the $64,580 price mark, which represents the average price at which investors have purchased Bitcoin over the last six months. Such development implies that the average investor is likely currently underwater which can lead to an increased selling pressure in a cut their losses or avoid further losses. According to abramchat, Bitcoin’s recent price fall can be attributed to economic and political news which have negatively impacted several financial markets prominently the stock market which recorded significant losses on Thursday and Friday. Bitcoin’s price drop is also likely influenced by defunct crypto lender Genesis finally commencing repayments to creditors after declaring bankruptcy in January 2023. On Friday, Genesis transferred out $1.5 billion in Ethereum and Bitcoin as they aim to offload $4 billion in debt. Commenting on Bitcoin’s future price trajectory, abramchart states that the failure of the digital asset to reclaim the support level of $64,580 will likely result in a further decline to around $53,000 – $54,000 which represents the next significant support zone. However, such low price levels were recently seen in early July, following the massive market sell-off by the German government. In addition, abramchart has warned investors to be cautious in purchasing altcoins at the moment. The analyst believes the current market “negativity” could produce a significant deleterious effect on other coins aside from Bitcoin. Related Reading: XRP, Bitcoin Sentiment Remains Very Positive: Bad Sign For Price? BTC Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $60,597 following a 1.20% decline in the last day. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency dipped below the $60,000 mark on Saturday for the first time since mid-July. Currently, Bitcoin’s daily trading volume is also down by 24.45%, indicating a low level of interest due to diminished buying and selling activities. However, with a market cap of $1.19 trillion, Bitcoin remains the largest digital asset and the 9th largest global financial asset. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from Tradingview
As summer is currently fast approaching, several crypto traders and analysts have cranked up their optimism for Bitcoin price trajectory. Among them is well-known crypto analyst, Rekt Capital, who has recently shared insights on BTC next move, suggesting that the asset is poised for a significant breakout in September. This sentiment is echoed by other market analysts who have been closely analyzing recent trends and historical data. What the Bullish September Sentiment Is Based On Rekt Capital pointed out that despite Bitcoin’s failure to break out from its reaccumulation range post-April’s Bitcoin halving, it is still “on track for a September breakout”. Reaccumulation phases are typically characterized by savvy investors accumulating assets in anticipation of a price surge. Related Reading: Is A Major Bitcoin Dip Coming? What the Coinbase Index Tells Us This phase often sets the stage for strong market rallies. However, the complexity of current market conditions means that patience is essential, and the expected movements may unfold more gradually. Rekt Capital noted: History suggests that a breakout from the ReAccumulation Range mere ~100 days after the Halving was always going to be unlikely. Meanwhile, another prominent analyst, Daan Crypto Trades, has recently highlighted the technical patterns forming around Bitcoin’s price. According to Daan, the proximity of lower highs suggests significant liquidity above these levels, likely influenced by stop losses and short liquidations. This setup indicates that surpassing the June 7th high could trigger a comprehensive breakout, overcoming previous resistance levels. Conversely, support levels around $63,000-$63.5,000 are also crucial, as they represent areas where many investors might have placed long stop orders. This creates a balanced playfield, with Bitcoin trading in what Daan describes as “the middle of nowhere,” reflecting a market awaiting a clear directional signal. #Bitcoin With a couple of lower highs in close proximity of each other. Likely for a lot of liquidity to sit above these levels in the form of stop losses/liquidation levels from shorts. Seeing it’s also at all time high, I think once we take the June 7th high we’ll break all.… pic.twitter.com/O4B0CA0dBM — Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) July 30, 2024 Bitcoin Market Performance and Fundamentals Currently, Bitcoin is trading at a price of $66,352, at the time of writing, following a 0.7% increase in the past 24 hours. This price performance although small, has resulted in a roughly $6 billion added to the asset’s market cap. While Bitcoin’s current market performance might not be that appealing, a notable metric of the asset has suggested an interesting impending move. Related Reading: Elliot Wave Theory Suggests Bitcoin Price will Crash Below $40,000 Particularly supporting the bullish outlook mentioned above, a CryptoQuant analyst recently observed a notable increase in Bitcoin withdrawals from exchanges. This trend, according to the analyst, can be a positive sign which could result in upward movement for Bitcoin as the available supply on exchanges diminishes, potentially driving prices higher if demand spikes. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
As the Bitcoin 2024 conference in Nashville draws near, scheduled for July 25-27, the BTC community braces for what could be a pivotal moment in Bitcoin’s history. The event is attracting unprecedented attention, possibly set to surpass the landmark announcement in 2021 by Jack Mallers that El Salvador would adopt Bitcoin as legal tender. The anticipation around the conference has been significantly amplified by the scheduled appearance of Donald Trump, the leading US presidential candidate. Rumors that began circulating last week have suggested that Trump might endorse Bitcoin as a potential reserve asset should he win the presidential election in November. These speculations were further fueled by Dennis Porter, founder of the regulatory advocacy group Satoshi Act Fund, who posted on social media platform X about an unconfirmed leak claiming that Trump plans to “announce a USA bitcoin strategic reserve in Nashville,” citing sources wishing to remain anonymous. Bitcoin Could See A “$100,000 Trinity Candle” Amidst this backdrop, Dan Ripoll, a former managing director at financial service company Swan and now a professional trader, outlined a bold scenario that could potentially more than double Bitcoin’s price instantly if Trump’s plans come to fruition. Speaking on X, Ripoll described the possibility as “one of the most gangster moves” Trump could make. Related Reading: Here Are 5 Reasons To Be Bullish On Bitcoin, Analyst Says His hypothetical involves Trump announcing at the conference that he has significantly invested in Bitcoin and plans to integrate it into the US Strategic Reserve. “Get balls long BTC (as in thousands of coins) going into the Bitcoin Conference next week. Announce plans to put BTC in the US Strategic Reserve. BTC goes vertical with a $100,000 Trinity Candle. Trump quintuples his net worth overnight. He never sells,” Ripoll theorized. According to him, such an action would not only enhance Trump’s net worth but also be positive for BTC hodlers if he keeps his promise. “Then, he should actually follow through with that promise and start accumulating BTC once in office. Everyone wins. Gensler comes after Trump for market manipulation. Trump to Gensler: “You’re Fired”, Ripoll added. Ripoll also suggested that the Democratic Party could potentially undercut Trump’s impact by adopting a pro-Bitcoin stance before the elections, though he expressed skepticism about their willingness to make such a move. Ripoll stated: “The Democrats could steal his thunder by coming out in favor of BTC before the election. But they won’t do it. It makes one question, how badly to the Dems want to win this thing?” Reactions From The BTC Community The reactions within the Bitcoin community to this speculative scenario has been mixed. Eugene Gant expressed skepticism about the broader implications of linking Bitcoin with potential political maneuvers, questioning the ethicality of leveraging a public position for personal financial gain through cryptocurrency. Ripoll responded by emphasizing the broader benefits if America adopts Bitcoin as a reserve asset, suggesting that tying the dollar to “hard money” could stabilize the currency and benefit holders of Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Option Traders Are Betting On A Price Breakout Ahead Of US Elections: QCP Capital Another community member, Steve, voiced concerns that Trump’s history of promoting and then divesting personal ventures could indicate a similar strategy with Bitcoin—buying low, pumping the price, and then selling high. Ripoll countered by noting the common trajectory from skepticism to support within the Bitcoin community, suggesting it wouldn’t be surprising if Trump had genuinely shifted his stance. The expert concluded: “Everyone who is a bitcoin maximalist started off as a bitcoin skeptic. Every single one of us. It would not be surprising to see that he actually learned about it and changed his tune. That is the path.” The anticipation for the Bitcoin 2024 conference featuring Trump is clearly visible in the BTC price action over the past days. At press time, BTC traded at $67,373, up more than 24% in the past two weeks. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
With Germany’s “forced selling” over and Mt. Gox repayments all but priced in, analysts look to an easing macro environment as a driver for Bitcoin’s price in the coming months.
Institutions are buying as Bitcoin dips under $60,000, strengthening the long-term bullish outlook for BTC’s price.
Bitcoin’s price has fallen below the critical support level of $60,000, reaching a low of $57,914. Since Tuesday, Bitcoin has experienced a further 7% decline, reinforcing the ongoing downward trend. Currently, market sentiment is shifting markedly towards the bearish side. Is A May 2021-Style Bitcoin Crash Looming? Andrew Kang, co-founder of Mechanism Capital, has raised significant concerns regarding the pattern emerging in the Bitcoin market, reminiscent of the conditions that led to the dramatic crash of May 2021. In a detailed analysis shared via X (formerly Twitter), Kang highlighted the overlooked criticality of the current market dynamics. Kang stated, “Most market participants are not appreciating the significance of a potential loss of a 4-month range on Bitcoin. The closest parallel we can draw is to that of the range of May 2021 where we also came off a parabolic rally of BTC and alts.” Related Reading: Longest Miner Capitulation Since 2022 Signals Potential Bitcoin Rally Ahead He noted the similarities in market conditions, particularly in terms of leveraged positions, which currently exceed $50 billion. “This figure does not include the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), which is higher, but compounded by the fact that in this scenario we have ranged even longer (18 weeks vs. 13), and we have not had extreme washouts yet while we had a few in the middle of the 2020-2021 bull market,” Kang elaborated. Kang also adjusted his projections for Bitcoin’s bottom, suggesting a steeper fall than earlier anticipated: “It’s likely that my initial estimates of low $50ks were too conservative and we see a more extreme reset to $40ks.” He warned that such a pullback could significantly damage the market, necessitating a few months of consolidation and a downtrend before any reversal to an upward trend might be conceivable. In a dialogue with Alex Krüger, a well-known macro and crypto analyst, the discussion explored the intricacies of open interest (OI) in the derivatives market, a crucial aspect of understanding market sentiment and directional biases. Krüger pointed out, “Much of that OI is not directional though,” suggesting a more complex market behavior than straightforward long and short positions. Related Reading: British Mega Bank Standard Chartered Says Bitcoin Will Hit $100,000, Here’s When Responding, Kang clarified the composition of OI, saying, “Each unit of OI is one long + one short. Even if there are basis trade shorts on the short leg, there’s a directional long on the other end. So yes… less directional shorts.” The conversation further delved into whether derivatives traders are delta neutral, which affects market stability. Krüger queried about market maker positions, and Kang responded, “I can assure you that there are not many market makers in the OI that are delta neutral long perps and short spot paying funding/borrow on both ends for a negative carry trade.” What Happened In May 2021? This ongoing discussion among experts reflects a deepening concern over the potential for a repeat of the May 2021 crash. During that period, Bitcoin’s price plummeted dramatically following a peak of around $64,000 in mid-April 2021. By the end of June, it had lost about 56% of its value. This crash was precipitated by a mix of factors, including regulatory crackdowns in China, environmental concerns voiced by influential figures like Tesla CEO Elon Musk, and a resulting cascade of panic selling among both retail and institutional investors. In retrospect, the May 2021 downturn was characterized by a rapid shift in investor sentiment, driven by external shocks and exacerbated by the high levels of leverage in the market. Today, similar conditions could be forming according to Kang, with high leverage and extended periods without significant price corrections, suggesting that the market may be on the brink of another severe downturn. At press time, BTC traded at $58,736. Featured image created with DALL·E, chart from TradingView.com