Arthur Hayes was wrong before. In December, the BitMEX co-founder predicted Bitcoin would hit $200,000 by March 2026. It didn’t. Bitcoin is trading near $71,000. Hayes is now calling for $500,000 to $750,000 by the end of the year, and his reasoning runs straight through the Middle East. Related Reading: Iran’s Crypto Market Shaken As Outflows Skyrocket 700% War, Spending, And The Fed Hayes argues that a prolonged US military conflict involving Iran would put severe pressure on federal finances. As government spending climbs, he believes policymakers would face little choice but to cut interest rates and pump more money into the financial system. That combination — loose monetary policy and expanding liquidity — is what he thinks sends Bitcoin sharply higher. The argument is grounded in history, at least partially. During the 1990 Gulf War, Federal Open Market Committee members openly cited Middle East instability as a factor in their deliberations. Crypto billionaire Arthur Hayes is predicting a $500k – $750k Bitcoin by end of 2026??? Trump admin + Iran conflict + Fed easing = ???????? He explains: pic.twitter.com/AU23sd216a — Altcoin Daily (@AltcoinDaily) March 2, 2026 By late 1990, the Fed had cut rates as economic confidence dropped. After the September 11 attacks in 2001, then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan pushed for an emergency 50-basis-point cut, which was implemented almost immediately. Markets steadied shortly after. Hayes draws a direct line from those episodes to what he sees unfolding now. Large military operations cost hundreds of billions. Fiscal pressure builds. The Fed eventually eases. Risk assets, including Bitcoin, rise. A Pattern Hayes Has Bet On Before He made this case publicly in a Substack post, where he wrote that investors could find a meaningful entry point once the Fed begins cutting rates or expanding the money supply. He named Bitcoin and a handful of what he called high-quality altcoins as the assets best positioned to benefit once that shift begins. The key moment, in his view, is not the conflict itself but what comes after. Rate cuts and fresh liquidity, he argues, are what actually move prices. Related Reading: Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Buy $14 Billion In BTC As Retail Headed For The Exit The Gap Between The Forecast And The Chart Bitcoin’s current price tells a different story from Hayes’ projections. The coin sits roughly half its October peak of $126,000. While gold and oil climbed after US and Israeli strikes killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Bitcoin did not follow. It sold off initially before recovering to current levels. That disconnect — commodities rallying while Bitcoin lags — has not shaken Hayes’ outlook. His $500,000 to $750,000 call remains intact, pinned to the belief that monetary policy, not headlines, is what ultimately drives the price. Whether the Fed moves in that direction depends on how long and how costly the conflict becomes. Featured image from US Air Force, chart from TradingView
An investigation into Meta’s smart glasses has ignited concerns from regulators and privacy advocates over the use of sensitive footage.
Bitcoin climbed back above $71,000 on Wednesday, reaching its highest level since February 8, even as broader geopolitical risk remained elevated. The move appears to have been triggered by a sudden shift in macro sentiment around Iran, but market structure inside crypto had already left BTC primed for a sharp reversal. Why Is The Bitcoin Price Up Today? The immediate catalyst came from a report cited by The Kobeissi Letter, which said the New York Times had reported that Iran made a “secret” offer to the US to negotiate an end to the war. According to Kobeissi, the proposed framework included Iran abandoning or sharply curtailing its ballistic missile and nuclear programs, as well as reducing support for proxy groups, while President Donald Trump had “suggested” Iran’s surviving leaders could remain in power under a so-called “Venezuela model.” Related Reading: Bitcoin To $11 Million By 2036? This AI-Deflation Thesis Is Turning Heads Kobeissi added that “it remains unclear if a deal is feasible at this point in time,” but the timing matched a rapid risk-on reaction across US stock futures markets as well as Bitcoin. That macro headline helps explain the spark. It does not fully explain why Bitcoin reacted more forcefully than stocks and gold. For that, the positioning backdrop matters. BREAKING: US stock market futures surge as the New York Times reports that Iran made a “secret” offer to the US to negotiate a deal to end the war. Potential terms include: 1. Iran to abandon or drastically curtail its ballistic missile and nuclear programs 2. Iran to abandon… https://t.co/IsF3saWl1A — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 4, 2026 Vetle Lunde, head of research at K33 Research, argued that Bitcoin entered the latest week in an unusually compressed state after months of persistent weakness. “Bitcoin entered the weekend heavily oversold, heavily shorted, and significantly underowned,” Lunde wrote. “First and foremost, the context for BTC ahead of the war in Iran is wildly different from other asset classes. Bitcoin had fallen 50% after five continuous months of downside. The weekly RSI fell to its third lowest reading ever, meaning BTC entered the week uniquely oversold.” In other words, Bitcoin was not coming into the geopolitical shock from a position of strength. It was coming in after a deep washout. Lunde also noted that institutional exposure had already been cut back materially, with spot ETFs seeing outflows of nearly 100,000 BTC and notional CME open interest falling 30% from October levels. That matters because investors most likely to use BTC as a hedge against uncertainty had, in his view, already reduced exposure, loosening the asset’s correlation to traditional macro trades. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sentiment On Wall Street Has Turned Negative, Galaxy’s Thorn Says Inside derivatives, the setup looked even more asymmetric. Lunde said perpetual funding rates had been unusually low and that traders had spent much of February paying a premium to stay short. “This is atypical market behavior for BTC, an asset with a distinct long bias,” he wrote. “Similar funding rate regimes have often appeared during bottoming phases and have historically reflected imbalances, overcrowding, and sell-side exhaustion.” That imbalance began to unwind quickly as price turned. In a follow-up post, Lunde said Binance BTCUSDT perpetual open interest had risen by 7,547 BTC in just four hours, a jump he said had not been seen on a comparable 4-hour basis since 2023. That suggests the rally was not just a spot reaction to headlines, but also a derivatives-led repositioning event. Crypto contributor Darkfost pointed to similar evidence. He noted that Bitcoin’s rebound above $70,000 came alongside five consecutive days of spot ETF inflows and a decisive turn in aggressive derivatives buying. On Binance, the BTC Taker Buy Sell Ratio reached 1.18, its highest reading of the year, while taker buy volume exceeded $1 billion per hour multiple times during the session. Taken together, those signals suggest buyers are no longer simply absorbing selling pressure; they are beginning to dictate short-term price action. At press time, BTC traded at $70,851. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
A16z's previous four crypto funds topped $7.6 billion, including its massive $4.5 billion Crypto Fund 4 in 2022.
XRP is approaching a pivotal technical moment as it pushes against the 200 EMA while holding firm at the base of a descending channel. With support still intact and momentum building near resistance, the chart is compressing into a potential breakout setup. A confirmed move above the EMA could shift short-term sentiment, while failure would keep the broader corrective structure in play. XRP Tests The 200 EMA Barrier According to technical analyst Egrag Crypto, XRP is currently attempting a significant breakthrough as it pushes against the 200 EMA. This move has the community questioning if the bulls finally have enough momentum to sustain the climb. While the immediate price action is encouraging, the next few days are critical for determining whether this is a genuine trend shift or merely a temporary spike. Related Reading: XRP Price Begins Consolidation, Breakout Pressure Gradually Builds The primary condition for a bullish transition is a weekly candle close above the 200 EMA and the $1.55 horizontal resistance. Achieving this would signal a surge in short-term strength and a meaningful shift in market momentum. Despite this push, XRP remains confined within a long-term descending channel, suggesting the broader macro structure is still technically corrective. Egrag highlights two major upside targets for those looking for a “bullish expansion.” First, the $1.55 level must be reclaimed and held to solidify current strength. If successful, the next major milestone is a weekly close above $2.20, which would likely trigger a more aggressive upward move. A rejection at or below the $1.55 mark would likely result in a liquidity sweep toward the $1.26 level. If the selling pressure intensifies from there, the downside risk extends much further, with potential targets sitting in the $0.95–$0.85 range. Channel Floor Holding — Buyers Step In In a recent market update, analyst Jonathan Carter revealed that XRP’s descending channel support is holding remarkably strong. The altcoin is currently trading near the lower boundary of this multi-month descending channel on the daily chart, a zone that has historically acted as a springboard for price recoveries. Related Reading: XRP Triangle Could Point To Support Between $0.60 And $0.90 The focus for traders now shifts to a confirmed bounce from this support level. If the daily chart can print a strong reversal candle, it would validate the channel’s integrity and signal the start of a new upward leg. Should the bulls successfully ignite this bounce, Carter has outlined a series of ambitious price targets. The initial recovery would likely target $1.50 and $1.80, with a successful breach of those levels opening the door for a climb toward $2.35 and $2.70. In a full bullish extension, the analysis points to macro targets at $3.10 and $3.55. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The World Liberty Financial co-founder and presidential son posted about the ongoing negotiations on stablecoin yield on Wednesday.
Experts push back on billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio's warning of bitcoin lacking gold’s qualities and risks from surveillance, quantum computing and lack of central bank buying.
On March 4, US President Donald Trump officially nominated Kevin Warsh as Chairman of the US Federal Reserve. Following Senate approval, Warsh will succeed Jerome Powell, whose second four-year term expires on May 15, 2026. Bitcoin and other markets’ reaction to the announcement In the past decade, Warsh has compared Bitcoin to gold on several …
The firm wants to be able to provide services like custody over digital assets, fiat currency, and other assets.
Ripple’s push into traditional finance appears to have taken another step forward after its institutional brokerage platform, Hidden Road, was listed in the National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC) directory under the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC). The implications of this development, which recently went live, are massive for both Ripple and XRP. Members of the XRP community are seeing the development as a signal that Ripple is steadily positioning itself inside the infrastructure that powers conventional financial markets. Hidden Road’s DTCC Listing Places Ripple Inside Wall Street’s Infrastructure On March 2, 2026, a quiet but seismic event occurred in the crypto world. The Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation, the backbone of the US securities market, officially added Hidden Road Partners CIV US LLC to its National Securities Clearing Corporation (NSCC) Market Participant Identifiers directory. Related Reading: Ripple Exec Clears The Air On Blocked XRP Transactions – When Does It Happen? Ripple’s decision to acquire Hidden Road was already one of the boldest moves the crypto industry had ever seen. Hidden Road, now operating as Ripple Prime following Ripple’s $1.25 billion acquisition in 2025, is a global prime brokerage. Before Ripple acquired the company, Hidden Road was already processing financing trades for over 300 institutional clients, moving approximately $3 trillion annually. Gaining a listing on the NSCC directory grants a firm direct operational standing within the post-trade workflows used by the world’s largest financial institutions. Ripple has done something no crypto company has done before: it has embedded itself into the very machinery of Wall Street. The NSCC listing means Ripple Prime can now process over-the-counter trades through the NSCC’s centralized clearing system. Ripple’s former CTO, David Schwartz, also acknowledged the development on X, responding to a post about the update with the short remark: “Seems important.” Interestingly, Schwartz also noted that the update comes from something that’s been in the works since a bit before Ripple’s acquisition of Hidden Road and rebranding to Ripple Prime was 100% final. XRP Holders See The Writing On The Wall The XRP community’s reaction has been a mix of serious institutional analysis and unmistakable excitement. Many holders see the DTCC listing as the clearest signal yet that Ripple is no longer building toward mainstream finance but is now arriving inside it. That perspective gained further traction after David Schwartz publicly reacted to the update with his brief response. Related Reading: The Uncomfortable Truth About XRP That Shows How High Price Can Actually Go “Important milestone for Ripple Prime,” wrote one X user. Another X user known as SMQKE noted that Ripple’s Hidden Road acquisition and the recent move will supercharge XRP’s utility. The contention is that Ripple Prime will start to gradually move parts of its post-trade processes onto the XRP Ledger. Even if only a portion of that institutional volume were to eventually move through XRPL-based settlement systems, the development could significantly increase blockchain activity tied to Ripple’s ecosystem. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
The "QuitGPT" movement has passed 2.5 million pledges. But before you delete ChatGPT, here is every step to take so your data doesn't stay behind.
Crypto-linked equities outpaced the broader market rally, with Gemini shares jumping about 34% and Coinbase climbing roughly 15%.
Korea's tech-heavy Kospi has plunged 20% in the last two trading sessions, potentially pushing that country's fast-money chasing traders back into crypto.
The family of Jonathan Gavalas claims that Google's AI chatbot pushed a delusional narrative that escalated into violent missions and ended with his death.
Data shows social media mentions related to “altseason” have hit a low recently, something that has often been relevant for Dogecoin in the past. Altseason Social Volume Has Plummeted In a new post on X, analytics firm Santiment has talked about the latest trend in the Social Volume of “altseason.” The Social Volume refers to an indicator that tracks the weekly total number of posts/messages/threads on the major social media platforms that contain mentions of a given term or topic. Related Reading: Solana’s Next Major Support Levels Sit At $50, $22, And $10: Analyst Since Santiment has filtered the metric for altseason here, its value would provide a look into the amount of comments that are discussing the possibility of an altcoin season. As the below chart shows, this indicator’s value has declined recently, indicating that interest in the altcoin market has gone down. In the same graph, the analytics firm has also attached the data for the Dogecoin price. Santiment’s reasoning behind doing so is that “‘altseason’ is synonymous with FOMO and greed toward more speculative, emotionally driven assets like $DOGE, meme coins, or hyper-volatile and often mid to lower cap altcoins.” As such, the Social Volume of the term altseason can contain hints about interest around DOGE itself. Historically, digital asset markets have often tended to be affected by the sentiment among the retail crowd. The relationship between the two, however, has generally been an inverse one, meaning that hype can lead to tops while despair to bottoms. This same pattern has emerged in this chart as well. It would appear that a high value on the altseason Social Volume has been bearish for Dogecoin during the last two years, while low levels have acted as local bottom signals. With the recent decline in the altseason Social Volume, its value has dropped to an extreme low. Considering the past pattern, it’s possible that this market disinterest could allow the memecoin to rebound. It only remains to be seen, however, how Dogecoin and other altcoins will develop in the near future. Santiment has cautioned that the metric isn’t a perfect trading signal, noting that “disinterest in altcoins doesn’t always necessarily justify an imminent alt surge.” Related Reading: Bitcoin LTH Selling Cools: Is Months-Long Distribution Finally Ending? In related news, social media sentiment related to Bitcoin saw a sharp surge just before the asset’s Monday rally to levels near $70,000, as the analytics firm has highlighted in another X post. While Bitcoin initially rallied, that specific run fizzled out, which could be a potential consequence of it being fueled by retail greed. DOGE Price At the time of writing, Dogecoin is floating around $0.093, down 1% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
The rush to weaponize AI without adequate safeguards risks catastrophic outcomes, highlighting the urgent need for ethical oversight.
The post AI chose nukes in 95% of war games. The Pentagon wants to deploy it anyway. appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
"We believe this run has legs," said analyst Owen Lau as bitcoin rose 8% over the past 24 hours to just above $73,000.
Strategic partnerships are key to overcoming barriers in the evolving crypto payment landscape.
The post Alex Wilson: Building crypto payment solutions requires collaboration, regulatory compliance is crucial for market entry, and Shift4’s tailored products drive innovation | On The Brink with Castle Island appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Bitwise donates $233K from BITB ETF profits to Bitcoin developers through Brink, OpenSats, and the HRF Bitcoin Development Fund.
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Kraken has cleared a regulatory hurdle that crypto firms have chased for years: direct access to the Federal Reserve’s core payments infrastructure. On March 4, the exchange said its Wyoming-chartered bank, Kraken Financial, has been granted a Federal Reserve master account, allowing it to settle US dollar payments directly over Fed rails instead of routing […]
The post Kraken just got rare Federal Reserve access in a move crypto firms have chased for years appeared first on CryptoSlate.
South Koreas KOSPI plunged 12% in its largest one day drop on record as margin calls and tensions triggered a $625B market selloff.
The post Korean stock market plunges 12% in historic one-day crash appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
As demand for digital assets continues to accelerate, scaling solutions have become one of the most important challenges facing Ethereum. In a recent discussion, Robinhood’s Head of Crypto outlined the company’s ambitious strategy to tackle this problem by building its own ETH Layer-2 network to serve mainstream users. Rather than merely participating in the broader ecosystem, Robinhood aims to solve core usability barriers that have hindered mass adoption. Why Ethereum Needs To Scale For Mass Adoption Robinhood’s head of crypto explains why they’re building an Ethereum layer-2. According to a video that was reported on X by Etherealize, Robinhood stated that many companies are launching their own layer-1 blockchain to gain full control over their ecosystems. Meanwhile, Robinhood is excited about the idea of building a stack, but creating the security of a real, proper, decentralized chain is extremely difficult, and only ETH can offer that for free. Related Reading: Ethereum Boost: Vitalik Buterin Sets Aside $45M In ETH For Privacy And Open Tech In contrast, many newer layer-1 chains may appear as decentralized alternatives, but they often lack meaningful validator distribution or long-term security guarantees. Without deep decentralization, some of these chains risk becoming little more than a fancy database, slower than the actual database, and there’s no meaningful value in that. Robinhood explains that ETH can offer security by default, and the second major factor that the company considered in choosing to build a layer-2 on top of ETH was liquidity, which is on every EVM-compatible chain, and was also an important decision factor for the company. However, if the long-term goal is to bring traditional assets such as stocks on-chain, it will require liquidity, and this won’t be possible if it’s in a closed loop or closed chain that no individual can assess. For the company, these two elements were the main focus, which is why they decided to build on ETH. ETH’s Role In The Sanctuary-Tech Movement Ethereum Daily revealed on X that Vitalik Buterin emphasized that ETH should not be reduced to a speculative finance tool or technology fad. Instead, it should be part of a foundational layer within a broader sanctuary-technology infrastructure ecosystem designed to provide an open-source, censorship-resistant way for individuals to store value, coordinate, and communicate safely without relying on centralized gatekeepers. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Support Intact, but Market Signals Waning Bullish Momentum The idea goes beyond simple transactions. This includes building persistent digital spaces, programmable money, multigeniture wallets for collective asset security, and government contracts that allow communities to make decisions transparently and autonomously. When these components are integrated across all layers from user wallets to hardware, they form resilient digital islands capable of operating independently of any single authority. By limiting concentrated control and distributing power through code, ETH can help create systems that enable users to retain custody, privacy, and security in a chaotic geopolitical environment. Featured image from Peakpx, chart from Tradingview.com
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Some crypto advocates argue the decision could open the door to payment-focused financial institutions that operate without traditional deposit-lending models.
Warsh's potential Fed leadership could shift US monetary policy towards embracing blockchain innovation and regulated crypto integration.
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Bitcoin (BTC) has climbed back above the $73,000 level for the first time since early February, marking a notable recovery for the cryptocurrency. As momentum builds, some analysts believe the move could extend further if current trends remain intact. Among them is market analyst Ali Martinez, who shared his outlook in a recent post on X. According to Martinez, Bitcoin may be positioning itself for what he describes as a potential relief rally. ETF Accumulation And Thin On-Chain Resistance From an on-chain standpoint, Martinez highlighted the role of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which continue to absorb supply at a steady pace. He noted that ETFs purchased approximately $776 million worth of BTC last week alone. The pace has not slowed this week. Since the week began on March 2, ETF inflows have already reached around $789 million — and the week is still ongoing. That scale of accumulation points to sustained institutional demand, which can provide meaningful support during breakout attempts. Related Reading: MARA Revises Bitcoin Treasury Strategy, Opens Door To Selling $3.5 Billion In BTC Beyond capital flows, Martinez also pointed to blockchain data that suggests limited resistance immediately above current price levels. Using the URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution), he observed that a major resistance cluster previously sat near $70,685. With Bitcoin now above the key price zone of $72,000, the supply concentration between this area and $81,000 appears comparatively thin. According to CoinGecko data, the BTC price has surged 7% to $73,200 at the time of writing. In practical terms, this means there are fewer historically established sell levels within that range. If buying pressure continues to build, Martinez believes that the Bitcoin price could move more freely through this “low supply” area. Bitcoin Rally Could Extend Toward $84,000 The next significant concentrations of supply, according to Martinez, are positioned around $83,307 and $84,569. Those levels may serve as stronger resistance should Bitcoin’s rally extend into that territory. Related Reading: CFTC Chair Says Crypto Perps Approval Is Close — Why This Is Huge For Hyperliquid? Martinez concluded that a confirmed breakout above current levels, supported by persistent ETF inflows, lighter on-chain resistance, and strengthening technical structure, could create the conditions for a short-term expansion higher. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Sui launches USDsui stablecoin issued by Stripe, expanding payments and DeFi infrastructure across the Sui ecosystem.
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Trump's direct involvement is required, but it is hard to see that occurring while the U.S. is in armed conflict with Iran, TD said.
The core developer behind Sui designed the network to outperform other blockchains in terms of speed and scalability.
Davide Crapis, the foundation's AI lead, sees the network acting as a coordination and verification layer in an increasingly AI-mediated world.