The prediction market platform, which has been caught in the middle of a regulatory battle between the feds and the states, is seeking to demonstrate strong controls.
A crypto analyst has presented a new analysis, forecasting Bitcoin’s (BTC) next all-time high and potential market bottom. According to the analyst, BTC’s long-term price outlook could depend heavily on where its current market bottom forms. The analysis draws on historical cycle patterns and bear markets that preceded BTC’s explosive upward rallies. Based on these patterns, the expert projects that if BTC has found a bottom near $60,000, then the next likely top could be around $200,000. Bitcoin Cycle Analysis Points To Final Market Bottom Crypto market expert Ardi has shared a new outlook on X, examining Bitcoin’s long-term cycle behavior and the implications of a possible market bottom. He noted that over the last four market cycles, Bitcoin’s bottom-to-top expansion has steadily compressed, with each cycle delivering only about 40%-50% of the upside seen in the previous one. Related Reading: Analyst Says Bitcoin Is Going To $170,000: Here’s When To Buy And When To Sell For added emphasis, he explained that if the last cycle recorded a roughly 7-8x upside off the price bottom, then the next market cycle could statistically see a 3-4x upside, based on his 40-50% theory. This pattern suggests a maturing market with gradually declining exponential returns as adoption and market size increase. Mathematically, Ardi presents his predictive model for Bitcoin’s cycle bottom and peak as: Next cycle top ≈ this cycle bottom x (previous multiple x k) The previous multiple is estimated at 7-8x from the 2022 bear market lows to the 2025 peak, while the k factor represents a historical diminishing factor of 0.4-0.5 derived from earlier Bitcoin cycles. Based on this framework, Ardi explained that if $60,000 is Bitcoin’s official bottom this cycle, then this level could serve as a key reference point for mapping the next phase of market development and potential bullish structure. Notably, BTC crashed to $60,000 earlier in February 2026 after the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran that same month, causing oil prices to skyrocket. This was the first time BTC reached this level after hitting an ATH above $126,000 in October 2025, although the cryptocurrency had been in a downtrend since that peak. BTC Cycle Model Projects $200,000 ATH Using the mathematical model, Ardi outlined that a $60,000 price floor would place Bitcoin’s next cycle base-case peak at $190,000 to $200,000. This zone is presented as the analyst’s expected outcome under normal diminishing returns conditions. The projection also includes a stronger extension phase, during which euphoric market momentum could push Bitcoin to $240,000, marking its true supercycle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Could See Another Crash, But What Is The Long-Term Prognosis? On the other hand, if the market bottom forms closer to $50,000, the cycle model will adjust lower, placing BTC’s base case peak near $160,000. Meanwhile, euphoric momentum could extend BTC toward the $200,000 region. Ardi emphasized that as long as the broader cycle structure remains intact, these projected ranges will continue to define where BTC’s next major bull rally could conclude. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
US military intercepts Iranian oil tankers, escalating the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Ceasefire by April 30 at 16.5% YES.
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Moran, a candidate running for U.S. Senate in Virginia, previously described self-wagers as “free advertising.”
Institutional interest in tokenization could drive significant Bitcoin price increases, impacting broader financial markets and regulatory landscapes.
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Crypto's identity crisis deepens as trust issues and broken assets challenge industry growth.
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Increased instability in Iran could lead to heightened military tensions, impacting regional security and global diplomatic efforts.
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Five weeks after MiMo-V2-Pro stunned the AI world, Xiaomi is back with a model that adds eyes and ears—at half the price.
The UN's endorsement highlights diplomatic challenges, as market skepticism suggests limited confidence in achieving a ceasefire soon.
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The company's bitcoin stash remained at 11,509 BTC, worth about $880 million at bitcoin's current price of around $78,000.
AngelList's new USVC fund allows non-accredited retail investors to gain exposure to major private firms like Anthropic and OpenAI.
The letter to four US government agencies said banks needed 60 more days for comment after OCC stablecoin rulemaking had been finalized.
American Bitcoin (ABTC) originally purchased the mining rigs in March, weeks after reporting a $59 million loss for Q4 2025.
New York Governor Kathy Hochul signed an executive order banning state employees from using insider information to bet on prediction markets.
Predictive algorithms in hiring and finance risk perpetuating systemic biases and unfair decision-making.
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Crypto's identity crisis deepens as trust issues and ideology clash in the mainstream transition.
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The states banned government employees from trading on insider information—a growing concern as prediction markets related to politics surge in popularity.
A crypto analyst has suggested that Bitcoin (BTC) is still in a bear market despite its recent price rally, warning that the cryptocurrency could be headed for a deeper correction below $60,000. The call comes amid repeated failed breakouts and weakening momentum, raising doubts about any near-term recovery. According to the analyst, the current price structure suggests bears remain firmly in control, with downside risks continuing to build. Why Bitcoin Is Still Bearish Despite Recent Rebounds A technical analyst known as JDK Analysis on X has shared fresh insights into Bitcoin’s current price action and potential next moves. In his post, he stated that Bitcoin’s recent price rally above $75,000 marked its fourth fakeout. He argued that, rather than a sustained price recovery, the latest upward moves may signal weakness, reinforcing his base case that BTC is currently in a short-term reaccumulation phase within a broader bear market. Related Reading: Why The PEPE Price Could Stage A 55X Rally To Reach New $0.0001 ATH JDK Analysis noted that the current re-accumulation phase lacked the key signals typically seen at true market bottoms, which often precede a sustained price reversal. As a result, he suggests that any near-term upside will likely be limited until a final price floor is reached. The analyst explained that strong market bottoms do not emerge suddenly. Instead, they form after an extended downtrend with multiple processes involved. He stated that large-scale investors cannot simply “buy the bottom” like most retail traders because their investments are substantial enough to move the market and influence prices. He added that buying only occurs when enough traders are willing to sell coins, making it even harder for big players to enter positions. If they decide to place large buy orders even when there are not enough sellers available, they could end up pushing prices higher and buying at even worse levels. To address this, JDK Analysis noted that most large players typically seek out liquidity by targeting areas with clustered orders. He said that it also helps when many traders are caught on the wrong side of the market, as their positions provide easy exit liquidity for whales. He called this process liquidity engineering, noting that it explains why Bitcoin’s price often moves up and down within a range, appearing as though it is recovering. The analyst added that the same process also applies when Bitcoin experiences sudden drops. During sharp moves, traders often panic and sell, leading to downside fakeouts in which prices briefly fall before reversing or stabilizing. Overall, JDK Analysis remains firm in his view that the market is not in a recovery stage. Instead, he argues that bears are still largely in control, with no confirmed bottom in place and the possibility of another major price crash still ahead. BTC Faces Possible Crash Below $60,000 While he maintains that the market is still bearish, JDK Analysis has explained what a true bottom should look like. He stated that a real bottom forms after several failed attempts to push prices lower. He emphasized that during repeated downside moves, trading volume typically declines, signaling that selling pressure is fading as sellers become exhausted. Once this happens, the market begins to shift before a fresh bullish trend begins. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Playbook: Analyst Says These 4 Numbers Are Your Entire Week However, the analyst argues that current market conditions are showing opposite behavior. Instead of exhaustion, prices continue to test the upper range before getting rejected. He also noted that BTC’s overall supply appears to be dominating demand, with each upward push accompanied by declining trading volume. The analyst views this as a major bearish signal. His chart shows that once Bitcoin breaks further below $75,000, the cryptocurrency could be heading toward its next crash level around $59,000. If this support fails, the analyst predicts an even deeper correction below $56,000, possibly marking its final bottom. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
The US naval blockade heightens economic pressure on Iran, potentially destabilizing the regime and affecting geopolitical dynamics.
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Top prediction market platforms, including Kalshi and Polymarket, are rushing to offer highly leveraged crypto derivatives at the exact moment state and federal authorities are clashing in court over whether the industry’s core products constitute illegal betting or legitimate financial instruments. Over the past year, these companies have gained national prominence by facilitating wagers on […]
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AI Detector Developer Pangram Labs’ browser extension tagged several posts from the Pope’s X account.
Zaheer explains why stablecoins, better UX, and focused execution are key to crypto’s next phase of adoption.
Google will invest up to $185 billion this year to build the infrastructure behind autonomous AI agents, CEO Sundar Pichai said Wednesday.
BlackRock's Bitcoin acquisition signals increased institutional interest, potentially driving demand amid geopolitical tensions and market volatility.
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The uncertainty in US-Iran negotiations highlights the fragile nature of international diplomacy and the market's sensitivity to geopolitical shifts.
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Privacy-focused Canton Network challenges blockchain norms with unique smart contract capabilities and major financial partnerships.
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Rising tensions and military actions could destabilize global oil markets, impacting economies reliant on stable energy prices.
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XRP is approaching a critical resistance zone as momentum builds toward a potential breakout. However, with price still struggling to clear the $1.53 level, the risk of rejection remains high. A failure at this key barrier could quickly shift sentiment and trigger a move lower, making the next reaction crucial for direction. Wave E Nears Completion As XRP Tests Key Resistance CasiTrades has highlighted that XRP is currently approaching a definitive stage in its market cycle, specifically moving toward the completion of Wave E within a larger consolidation pattern. Technical indicators across multiple subwave degrees are identifying the $1.53 level as the primary resistance hurdle. Related Reading: 4 Signs XRP Is Moving From Bearish to Bullish: Analyst The current forecast anticipates a series of upward moves into the $1.50 to $1.53 price range. This bullish remains technically valid as long as the price stays above the critical support of $1.39. A breach below this support would likely disrupt the current wave count and suggest a shift in momentum. Market observers are also keeping a close eye on Bitcoin’s performance, as its movement could influence XRP’s direction. If Bitcoin rallies into its own resistance zone near $79,000, it would likely provide the necessary tailwind for XRP to challenge the $1.50–$1.53 area. However, there is a risk of a wave failure where XRP falls just short of its target if Bitcoin reaches a local top. The price action shows a major test of resistance that will likely define XRP’s trajectory for the coming weeks. While a breakout would be significant, a rejection at these higher levels could lead to a sharp retracement to the $1.09 and $0.87 range. XRP Struggles To Reclaim $1.50 Resistance In a recent update, analyst Hov highlighted that XRP still hasn’t reclaimed the $1.50 level, a key resistance that continues to cap upside momentum. What makes this more notable is that several major cryptocurrencies have already pushed to new local highs, while XRP continues to lag. Related Reading: XRP Locked In Range, But Here’s What Happening Underneath This relative weakness is beginning to raise concerns, suggesting that buyers have not yet fully stepped in with enough conviction to drive prices higher. From a structural perspective, XRP is currently forming a very clear triangle pattern. While this type of pattern often signals a buildup before a breakout, Hov cautions that overly obvious ones can sometimes lead to false expectations. The key trigger to watch now is a breakout above the ACE trendline. If confirmed, the next upside target sits around the $1.90 region, aligning with a possible wave 3 expansion from the lows. Beyond that, price action will need to be monitored closely to determine whether XRP can sustain a stronger bullish trend or if more consolidation lies ahead. Featured image from VectorStock, chart from Tradingview.com
FCA raids eight London sites in first crackdown on illegal peer to peer crypto trading as UK enforcement pressure rises.
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Blockchains are going private. The only question left is what kind of privacy the industry will build, argues Schiller.