Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz heightens geopolitical risks, impacting global energy markets and complicating diplomatic efforts.
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The delay in US action suggests a preference for diplomacy, impacting market expectations and highlighting geopolitical uncertainties.
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The declining odds of a US-Iran ceasefire highlight the challenges of achieving diplomatic progress amid heightened tensions.
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Ethereum is currently trading above $2,100 at the start of the new month, but one analyst believes the asset’s next major directional move is based on a single price level: one that, if broken, would invalidate years of macro analysis and cause a price collapse to as low as $900. The Count That Has Held For A Year According to an analyst known as The Penguin, Ethereum’s current price behavior fits into a broader Elliott Wave structure that has been developing for years. The analysis defines Ethereum’s entire price history since 2016 as a developing macro sequence: a completed Cycle Wave 1 that topped out, followed by an extended Wave 2 correction playing out as a flat. According to the analyst, this structure is time-consuming, choppy, and designed to frustrate. Related Reading: Analyst Shares A Good Way To Know When Ethereum Has Hit A Bottom Since Ethereum’s 2021 peak, the Ethereum price has largely moved sideways and downward while repeatedly teasing recoveries that faded. The most notable example of this recovery was in August 2025, when Ethereum moved to new all-time highs. However, this has eventually ended up with a reversal that saw Ethereum fall back below $2,000 again. The chart labels the flat trading sequence in detail, mapping out W, X, A, and B legs that form the larger Wave 2 structure. The current price action is positioned within the final leg of the B structure, and the next outlook is an upward move to C from here. The $1,382 Line That Changes Everything As shown in the chart above, the Ethereum price has spent the period since its 2021 peak trading beneath a well-defined horizontal resistance zone between $4,500 and $4,900, with multiple rallies failing to break through this ceiling. The lows, on the other hand, have been less uniform, with lows forming in a more irregular pattern instead of a clean horizontal base. Related Reading: Brace For Impact: Ethereum Price Is Now Forming A Counter-Trend Correction However, one level stands out in this structure, which is the $1,382 low recorded in April 2025. Based on the context of this analysis, this point is labelled as Wave X and serves as the lower timeframe invalidation level. This is the important price level that will determine whether the price structure continues to fall below the four-digit mark. As long as Ethereum remains above it, the Wave 2 scenario will be valid, and the Ethereum price can still transition into a new impulsive cycle to the upside. The price target in this case is a push to as high as $8,400. A breakdown below $1,382, however, would invalidate the entire wave count. ETH would need to shed about a third of its value to reach that level, but given Q1 2026’s 29% decline and February 6 low at $1,743, it is not out of reach under persistent selling pressure. If that invalidation level fails, the analyst’s projection points to a downside break below $900, with Fibonacci extensions on the chart pointing to lows between $800 and $500. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
The strike exacerbates geopolitical tensions, diminishing prospects for diplomatic resolutions and prolonging regional instability.
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On-chain data shows the average Bitcoin exchange deposit has ballooned to a significant size, a potential sign that whales are making inflows. Average Bitcoin Exchange Inflow Hits 2.62 BTC As pointed out by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in an X post, the mean Exchange Inflow has shot up for Bitcoin. The “Exchange Inflow” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the BTC transactions that are heading toward centralized exchanges from self-custodial wallets. Related Reading: Dogecoin Network Comes Alive: Active Addresses Jump 28% In the context of the current topic, the version of the metric that’s of interest is the one tracking mean exchange deposits. That is, this indicator measures the size of the average transfer that’s being sent to exchange-related wallets. When the value of the metric is high, it means the average exchange inflow is significant in scale. Such a trend can be a sign that large entities are actively participating in exchange deposit activity. On the other hand, the indicator being low can suggest that smaller hands are the ones responsible for the current exchange inflows. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the mean Bitcoin Exchange Inflow over the past year: As displayed in the above graph, the 7-day EMA of the mean Bitcoin Exchange Inflow has just observed a rapid surge, indicating that whales have potentially ramped up their deposit activity. Generally, one of the main reasons why investors transfer their coins to exchanges is for selling-related purposes, so this spike in the mean Exchange Inflow may be a sign that the big-money hands are preparing to exit from the cryptocurrency. The latest high level of the indicator isn’t ordinarily seen, serving as a rare signal for the network. “The average BTC transaction sent to exchanges climbed to 2.62 BTC, a level that typically only appears during high-stress market moves,” explained the analyst. From the chart, it’s visible that the last time the Exchange Inflow saw a similar surge was alongside the price crash at the start of February. It now remains to be seen whether the latest spike in the indicator will have any effect on the Bitcoin price. Related Reading: Recent Bitcoin Rally Saw Retail Shift To Selling, Glassnode Reveals In some other news, very old Bitcoin hands have shown activity recently, as Maartunn has highlighted in another X post. From the chart, it’s visible that multiple large transactions involving tokens older than ten years have been spotted on the blockchain over the past couple of days. In total, these transactions have broken dormancy for about 600 BTC, worth about $41.2 million right now. BTC Price Bitcoin has made some recovery from its lows as its price has climbed back to $68,500. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Pezeshkian's call for understanding highlights the complexity of US-Iran relations, with skepticism hindering immediate diplomatic progress.
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The missile strike underscores heightened geopolitical tensions, impacting market perceptions of U.S.-Iran conflict escalation and regime stability.
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Increased A-10 presence near Iran may heighten regional tensions, impacting geopolitical stability and influencing global market dynamics.
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Tehran's ceasefire demand suggests potential diplomatic progress, impacting market confidence and reducing regime collapse odds, yet remains speculative.
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Trump's NATO withdrawal consideration could destabilize alliances, impacting global security dynamics and reducing diplomatic resolution chances.
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QCP Group released an article today weighining in the quantum risk for crypto, following the Google whitepaper from March 30 showing Bitcoin‑style elliptic‑curve cryptography can be broken with far fewer quantum resources than previously assumed. Related Reading: Google Says End For Bitcoin Is Near? Quantum Computers Could Attack Crypto This Soon A Bigger Threat Beyond Crypto The crypto-quantum panic continues raging on, with multiple important voices from crypto and technology, such as former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ), responding to the report in different ways. QCP’s article, written by Rachel Lee, establishes the firm’s opinion in a simple sentence: the quantum threat is more of a persistent structural challenge than a short‑term market threat. At QCP, we view this as a long-term structural issue, not an immediate market risk. The distinction matters. What Lee means is the target of the threat is not crypto in isolation: it’s the entire public‑key infrastructure stack that also secures banking rails such as SWIFT, TLS/HTTPS, VPNs and wider financial plumbing. A breakthrough in quantum computing that compromises ECC would therefore have system-wide implications, not just for digital assets. This quantum-vulnerability happens because what quantum computers could actually break are public‑key signatures (ECDSA, Ed25519, RSA), not the proof‑of‑work consensus mechanism that make blockchain technology to be considered highly secure. “A Transition, Not a Trigger”, QCP Says Lee reminds us that “we remain a considerable distance” from the technological power that would be needed to break the cited ECDLP standard. As of today, the most advanced quantum systems we have are operating roughly 1,000x below the necessary threshold to even conduct such an attack. More importantly, QCP argues that even in the scenario where we have the computational power that would make any of this possible, digital assets would not be, by ay means, the primary target. TradFi and networks carrying confidential or mission‑critical information are way more tempting targets. The global banking system and sensitive communications infrastructure would present far more immediate and valuable attack surfaces. Paradoxically, this means crypto is better positioned to coordinate contentious upgrades than many siloed banking and government systems that depend on slow hardware refresh cycles and legacy HSMs. The system is already repricing this structurally. Both the crypto sector and traditional finance are already pouring resources into post‑quantum defenses and migration plans. Protocol communities are testing mitigation approaches, even as global security standards are still being refined. Efforts such as the Italian NIST’s post‑quantum standards and Google’s own 2029 internal quantum deadline are grounding the quantum-risk from a sci‑fi edge case into a realistic technological transition. Related Reading: Bitcoin Range Traps Traders At $65K — Are Long‑Term Holders Finally Surrendering? Immediate Market Implications According to QCP, quantum is now a background macro risk factor for crypto, not a near‑term catalyst. It’s more relevant to long‑duration value, L1 roadmaps, and wallet design than to next‑month price action. Quantum computing is a long-term issue the industry should monitor and prepare for, not a near-term reason to reassess digital assets. Protocols and projects that can credibly ship post‑quantum signatures, hardened key‑management and private mempools may attract a “quantum‑ready” premium over time, while assets with ossified governance or huge pools of exposed coins will trade with a structural discount. At the time of writing, BTC trades for the highs $68k on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
According to the company CFO, Bithumb was “strengthen[ing] accounting policies and internal controls” ahead of its IPO plans, already delayed from 2025.
The new leadership's stance suggests regime stability, reducing market expectations of imminent collapse despite geopolitical tensions.
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The Treasury published its notice of proposed rulemaking as the market capitalization of dollar-pegged stablecoins neared $300 billion.
A Hyperliquid DEX whale has placed an $80 million bet that Bitcoin will crash and oil will rally, but data show this trader has lost millions in the past.
Andrew McCormick, head of eToro U.S., said it was the first firm to receive a BitLicense in 2023 following the collapse of FTX.
Crypto organizations to have applied for the charter include Bridge, Ripple, Circle, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Paxos.
The crypto exchange seeks a charter from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to separate custody from trading and expand services under a regulated banking framework.
Monad still accounts for less than 0.4% of the approximately $91 billion total TVL tracked across all chains.
Crypto analyst Sykodelic has declared that the Bitcoin bleed is almost over and suggested that BTC is unlikely to drop to $40,000 as some experts predict. He alluded to the 2022 bottom to explain why the leading crypto is likely to find a bottom soon and begin a new bull cycle. Analyst Explains Why Bitcoin Will Soon Find A Bottom In an X post, Sykodelic said the Bitcoin bleed is almost over and that people expecting a drop to the $40,000 range will be sidelined. He further remarked that this is how people who were waiting for a drop to $12,000 were sidelined during the 2022 bottom. Commenting on the current BTC price action, the analyst noted that the leading crypto is trading in the largest pocket of supply it has seen in over five years, just below the higher-time-frame (HTF) bullish structure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price At $59,000 Is The Line In The Sand, Here’s What You Should Know He stated that back in 2022, the Bitcoin price action was totally different. Back then, BTC had lost its HTF structure, and there was zero demand below. Instead, what was below was “clear air” with Bitcoin dropping below. However, the analyst said such price action is unlikely to occur this time around. Sykodelic said that the most he sees happening this time around is a deviation from the range low at around $60,000, then a reclaim, followed by a push back above $74,400, which would confirm an expanded flat. The analyst added that if a deviation move below $60,000 occurs, it is very likely due to the U.S.-Iran war, and that it could happen in the next two weeks. Lastly, he mentioned that there have been signs of large accumulation across the board, with much greater strength. As such, the analyst is confident that this downtrend will be over much faster than most people expect. Why BTC Could Drop To As Low As $46,000 In an X post, popular crypto analyst Willy Woo stated that old-school on-chain models suggest that Bitcoin will form a bottom between $46,000 and $54,000. He further remarked that the Orange line on the accompanying chart corresponds to the capital stored in BTC, and it has been leaving since November. The analyst also pointed out that the CVDD Floor Model has the advantage of climbing over time and is currently at $45,500. Related Reading: The Last Time Bitcoin Sentiment Was This Bad Was 2022, But There Was A Silver Lining However, Willy Woo cautioned that these models rely on past behavior and that there have been only four prior bear markets, all within a secular bull market in risk equities. As such, he noted that if the foundation collapses, Bitcoin and the broader crypto market will enter uncharted territory, which could lead to a deeper bear market. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $68,600, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
A debate over stablecoin yield, likely to impact Tether, is underway in the US government as lawmakers consider a market structure bill.
Google's cheapest video model yet targets developers burned by high generation costs, arriving just days after OpenAI pulled the plug on Sora.
What looks like a geopolitical threat aimed at US multinationals could quickly become a crypto story too. That is because several of the companies threatened by Iran now sit inside the infrastructure, payments, and corporate treasury layers that parts of the digital-asset industry rely on. According to the Wall Street Journal, the IRGC warned that […]
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The Citadel-backed exchange is seeking approval to offer custody and asset services as institutional demand grows.
Drift Protocol suspended deposits and withdrawals after warning of an active attack as third party estimates put outflows near $270 million.
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The playful exchange highlights the ongoing rivalry and competitive dynamics within the crypto industry, influencing market perceptions.
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The plan risks escalating US-Iran tensions, reducing ceasefire prospects and increasing likelihood of US ground operations in Iran.
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Bithumb is extending its IPO runway as it works through internal fixes while rival Upbit works on its own public listing.
Market volatility reflects uncertainty in US-Iran relations, with potential diplomatic shifts impacting geopolitical stability and investor sentiment.
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