Bitcoin's future hinges less on technological factors and more on how AI affects growth, employment, real interest rates, and central bank liquidity, NYDIG Research argues.
A rare Bitcoin bottom signal from 2023 has flashed again, but the 2026 macroeconomic backdrop calls its validity into question. Can BTC price defy the odds?
A recent evaluation has surfaced that reveals that Bitcoin’s long-term holders are slowly easing away from their deep profits, and that this could affect prices in either way, depending on further developments. Related Reading: The Distribution Trap: Why Bitcoin’s Reserve Growth Proves Sellers Still Hold The Tape Long-Term Holder Average Monthly SOPR Slips Under 1 In a recent QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, a pseudonymous on-chain analyst, Darkfost, reveals that Bitcoin’s long-term holders are entering a fragile phase in the current cycle. This post is based on readings obtained from the BTC: Long-Term Holders (LTH) SOPR metric, which tracks if coins moved by Long-Term Holders are done profitably, or at a loss. A SOPR value above 1 reflects that holders of this category are, on average, realizing profits, while a reading below 1 signals that these coins are being moved at a loss. According to Darkfost, the current readings from the SOPR metric have fallen under the critical 1 level, and currently sit around 0.98 This is a sign that Bitcoin’s LTHs, which are typically the strongest investor hands in the market, are beginning to realize losses on a monthly basis. Interestingly, the scenario is somewhat different on the annual timeframe. Related Reading: XRP Emerging As Safe Haven? CEO Points To Steady Inflows As BTC, ETH Struggle Annual LTH SOPR Still Positive, But Trend Is Falling — Analyst Darkfost further highlights that, although the monthly timeframe leans towards the red zone, the annualized SOPR still sits well into positive territory, with readings at approximately 1.84. According to the analyst, this represents about 84% in average realized gains, by implication. However, the annualized profits have taken on a downward trend and have been slowly falling. Notably, the LTH SOPR has not gone higher than 3.4 on the charts throughout the current cycle, a value that is approximately half the readings seen in the previous cycle’s peak. Interestingly, this is also less than four times the peak of the two previous cycles, suggesting a less impulsive distribution among this investor cohort. Furthermore, Darkfost conjures historical data, showing that bear markets have formed only after the SOPR dropped towards the 0.6 region, a level that correlates with average realized losses of approximately 40%. Hence, while the current reading on the metric is below 1 every month, it is still far from the zone representing capitulation. For now, the Long-term holders have entered what seems to be a transitional phase. In the scenario where Long-Term Holder realized profits continue to fade, selling pressure might in turn erode from this side. As of this writing, the Bitcoin price stands at a valuation of approximately $64,247, reflecting a loss of 4.85% over the past day. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview
Bitcoin's future hinges on retail interest as institutional access fails to spark a market revival.
The post Lyn Alden: Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is evolving, retail participation remains muted, and integration into finance is crucial for global adoption | The Wolf Of All Streets appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Bitcoin defends $64K after U.S., Israel strikes on Iran as ETF flows return to center stage Bitcoin traded through a weekend macro shock after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran sparked regional retaliation. The largest price swings occurred during low-liquidity hours, leaving spot BTC back near the mid-$64,000 area. The move reinforced a pattern that […]
The post Bitcoin recovers instantly after Iran war crashes price but one Monday number could flip the next move appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Ethereum is showing signs of a major breakout after flipping a corrective price channel. This shift suggests the start of an impulsive wave, signaling potential strong upside momentum. Traders should watch for confirmation above key levels as the path for the next leg up begins to take shape. Wave 3 In Motion: Preparing For A Strong Upside Move Charting an expected path for Ethereum on the 4-hour timeframe, Elliott Waves Academy has revealed a significant opportunity to ride a new bullish wave. The price appears to be preparing for a powerful upward surge following a successful breach of its corrective price channel. Related Reading: From Breakdown To Bottoming? Ethereum Tests Key High-Timeframe Support The technical structure indicates that Ethereum is likely forming Wave 3 of (3), with current projections showing the asset reaching a minimum 161.8% extension. However, the internal momentum suggests the potential for the move to extend further, signaling that a major impulsive rally is now officially underway. From a strategic standpoint, any temporary bearish corrections would be viewed as high-probability opportunities for long re-entries. These minor pullbacks serve to reset local indicators while the primary trend remains firmly higher. Traders are currently eyeing the $2,624.14 level as a primary target, with the possibility of a move toward the 261.8% extension if the positive momentum remains sustained. To validate and maintain this bullish scenario, it is critical to see a confirmed breakout and sustained trading above the previous price channel. Staying above this structural boundary will reinforce the upward outlook and provide the necessary support for the next leg of the rally. Ethereum Sweeps Range High: Buyers Step In According to Lennaert Snyder, Ethereum recently reached its all-time high and liquidity, setting the stage for a notable bounce after testing the extremes of its current range. This move reflects a strong recovery following aggressive price action and shows that buyers are actively defending key levels. Related Reading: Here’s Why Ethereum Slipped Below $2,000 – Details For traders looking at local setups, caution is advised. Given the recent massive displacement, it’s best to wait for clearer directional signals before entering positions, ensuring trades align with confirmed momentum rather than chasing volatility. That said, the liquidity captured during this sweep opens up opportunities for hedge strategies. For example, a short position on the opposite side could help mitigate risk while waiting for the market to stabilize. Specific levels, such as the 50% wick fill around $2,110, may present interesting shorting opportunities after a bearish MSB forms. Additionally, similar to Bitcoin, Ethereum left a significant Fair Value Gap (FVG) during the aggressive leg higher, with the 50% level of this gap near ~$1,970. Should the price retest this FVG, it could provide a favorable setup for long entries following a reversal, highlighting potential areas for strategic accumulation. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
JPMorgan said the long-awaited Clarity Act would bring regulatory clarity, boost institutional participation and accelerate tokenization across U.S. crypto markets.
Declining crypto prices mean that many digital asset treasuries are either underwater or trading at a discount to their net asset value.
The government relies on this crypto infrastructure for international trade, while ordinary Iranians use it as a financial lifeline during protests and economic crises.
Bitcoin is turning into multi-generational wealth, and a large share of holders still run it with a single point of failure. One accident, illness, or a stretch of incapacity can be the difference between inheriting generational wealth and losing everything. That's the inheritance crisis the market will have to face. A recent report from the […]
The post Bitcoin’s self custody culture created an inheritance time bomb, and 2026 may be when it starts detonating appeared first on CryptoSlate.
The number sounds almost too big to take seriously. Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin posted a detailed technical roadmap on February 27 outlining how the network could handle up to 1,000 times its current transaction capacity — without pricing out the smaller node operators who keep the system decentralized. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sell-Off Slows Down, But The Road To Recovery Is Long — Analyst The document, which Buterin informally calls the “Strawmap,” breaks the work into three problem areas: execution, data, and state. Near-Term Upgrades Come First The closest item on the list is an upcoming protocol upgrade called “Glamsterdam.” According to reports, one of its key changes introduces block-level access lists — a technical adjustment that allows different parts of a block to be processed simultaneously rather than one after another. Reports also say the upgrade improves how efficiently each 12-second block slot is used, making it safer to pack more transactions into every block without destabilizing the network. Now, scaling. There are two buckets here: short-term and long-term. Short term scaling I’ve written about elsewhere. Basically: * Block level access lists (coming in Glamsterdam) allow blocks to be verified in parallel. * ePBS (coming in Glamsterdam) has many features, of… — vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) February 27, 2026 Buterin acknowledged that these changes, combined with better client software, might be enough to reach a stable state on their own. If real usage stays low, he suggested the full 1,000x push could be shelved in favor of other priorities entirely. Zero-Knowledge Proofs Take Center Stage In Longer Plans The more ambitious part of the roadmap involves zero-knowledge Ethereum Virtual Machines, or ZK-EVMs. Rather than requiring every validator to re-run every transaction to confirm it is legitimate, ZK-EVMs allow validators to check cryptographic proofs instead — a far lighter task. According to reports, Buterin’s timeline calls for a small group of validators to begin using this method as early as 2026, with broader adoption potentially following in 2027. If that plays out, the network’s capacity ceiling could be raised significantly without forcing node operators to invest in more powerful hardware. Related Reading: Aave Crosses $1 Trillion In Loans — No Bank Required State Growth Gets Its Own Fix Reports say Buterin flagged state growth as a separate and underappreciated problem. Deploying a large smart contract adds data that every Ethereum node must store permanently — and that accumulated storage gradually raises the cost of running a node at all. His proposed fix tracks state creation gas independently, so it does not count against the regular transaction gas cap. Large contracts could still be deployed, but their pricing would reflect the real long-term storage cost. The 1,000x figure is a long-term ceiling, not a promise for next year. Each phase of the plan depends on the one before it working as intended. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
The real competitive advantage in stablecoins, the moat that holds competitors at bay, now lies in the distribution held by incumbents, according to the person behind Meta's abandoned Diem token.
The case traces back to a wave of class action lawsuits filed in April 2020 against major crypto exchanges and token issuers.
The proposed rules would limit the ability of third parties to pass stablecoin rewards on to users, but experts are split on what the language could mean for America’s top crypto firms.
President Donald Trump has pulled the United States into military action against Iran, and the first consequence for crypto markets was another wave of selling rather than a rush into Bitcoin as a haven. According to CryptoSlate’s data, BTC price dumped around 7%, erasing some of its weeklong gains to trade as low as $63,000 […]
The post Bitcoin just dumped 7% after Trump hit Iran, and the real reason has nothing to do with crypto appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Bitcoin price struggles persist as the premier cryptocurrency is yet to break above the key $70,000 resistance zone, suggesting the market remains at risk of a deeper correction. Notably, popular market analyst Yonsei_dent has shared an observation that backs these bearish investors’ expectations. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETF Investors Show Diamond Hands: Only $6.5B In Outflows Since October 10 Bitcoin Supply In Profit Metric Shows Potential 75% Drawdown In a Quicktake post on CryptoQuant, Yonsei_dent has identified a potential price bottom of the present market cycle, considering the meltdown in recent months. Since October, the leading cryptocurrency has lost over 45% of its market value, with prices dropping as low as $60,000 from an all-time high of $126,000. Using the Supply In Profit on-chain indicator, Yonsei_dent maps out the possible extent of Bitcoin’s price decline when in the bottom zone, based on historical cycle drawdown periods. For context, the Supply in Profit measures the portion of the total circulating Bitcoin whose current market price is higher than the price at which those coins last moved. It’s an important cycle indicator, as the Supply in Profit approaches extreme highs when near cycle tops, and compresses sharply when near cycle lows. Yonsei_dent explains that the duration of Bitcoin Supply in Profit in the bottom zone in 2022 was six months. During this market cycle, Bitcoin had initially hit an all-time high of $69,000 before crashing by 77% to around $15,500. According to the market analyst, if the same length of the bottom phase was placed on the current price chart, it represents a 70%-75% drawdown price projection for the present market cycle. In this case, Bitcoin is expected to find a price low within a range of $31,500 – $38,000, suggesting a further potential 41%-51% decline from the current market prices. Related Reading: Ethereum’s Market Order Imbalance Hits Record Negatives: $1,850 Is Now The Line In The Sand Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades at $63,553 following a 5.84% loss in the last 24 hours. Meanwhile, its daily trading volume is up by a minor 0.54% and valued at $40.04 billion. The premier cryptocurrency also reports a negative performance on its weekly and monthly charts, with respective losses of 6.21% and 27.11%. Unless the market bulls convincingly reclaim the long standing $70k resistance, market sentiment is likely to remain fragile and prices vulnerable to additional downside or prolonged consolidation in the near term. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
One trader who made over $2 million in recent months betting against the strikes lost $6.5 million in a single day after the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran.
A full closure of the strait is unlikely or impractical, some experts argue.
Flawed token models are driving short-term trading, hindering long-term growth in the crypto market.
The post Namik Muduroglu: Token models incentivize selling over holding, governance structures in DAOs are failing, and regulatory fears stifle innovation | Unchained appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The missiles started flying, and so did the sell orders. Within hours of the US and Israel launching coordinated strikes on Iran, Bitcoin had dropped as much as 3.8% to $63,038, Ethereum had fallen nearly 9%, and more than 152,000 traders had been liquidated across crypto markets. With traditional stock and bond markets closed for the weekend, digital assets absorbed the full force of the panic — alone. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sell-Off Slows Down, But The Road To Recovery Is Long — Analyst US And Israel Hit Iran’s Military And Nuclear Sites US President Donald Trump confirmed on Friday that the US had begun what he described as “major combat operations” against Iran, with strikes aimed at the country’s missile systems, naval assets, and nuclear infrastructure. Reports say Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz described the operation as a preemptive move, with both governments coordinating the assault. The scale and speed of the attack caught many off guard, and Iran’s response came quickly. The US is carrying out strikes on Iran, two US officials tell CNN. Follow live updates: https://t.co/pG6pfrPwlm pic.twitter.com/vPGeQ9ILHp — CNN (@CNN) February 28, 2026 According to reports, Iran launched waves of missiles and drones targeting not just Israel but American military installations across the Gulf region. A US base in Bahrain was reportedly struck. Qatar and the UAE said their defense systems intercepted projectiles flying over their territory. Explosions were heard in Dubai. Bahrain shut its airspace entirely. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency declared that all US bases and interests across the region would be considered legitimate targets. The conflict, by Saturday morning, had spread well beyond Iranian and Israeli borders. Crypto Markets Take The Hit Traditional Markets Cannot Yet Feel Stocks, bonds, and commodities markets were closed. Crypto was not. Bitcoin trades around the clock, every day of the week, which made it the only major financial market available to absorb the weekend’s fear. The selling was fast and broad. Reports say roughly $128 billion in total market value was wiped across digital assets in the hours following the strike confirmation. Related Reading: Crypto Mixing Is Back — And Criminals Adapted Faster Than The Rules Did Bitcoin fell from around $66,000 to as low as $63,038 before settling near $64,000. Ethereum dropped below $1,850. XRP slid 8% to trade near $1.29. Solana, Dogecoin, Cardano, and Chainlink each recorded losses of between 8% and 12%. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin futures liquidations reached approximately $192 million, with futures trading volume surging to around $68.27 billion — a sign that derivatives markets were amplifying the move rather than spot sellers driving it alone. Total liquidations across all crypto assets hit $515 million within 24 hours. The Fear and Greed Index, a widely watched measure of market sentiment, fell to 14 — deep inside extreme fear territory. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView
Mark Karpelès submitted a pull request to Bitcoin Core that would redirect coins that have remained untouched since 2011 to a recovery address controlled by the MtGox trustee, reigniting the oldest debate in Bitcoin.
The US Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s emergency tariffs under IEEPA on Feb. 20, and markets immediately inherited a large cash flow question. The amount at stake was more than $175 billion in tariff collections that could be subject to refunds, with the Court offering no step-by-step plan for how refunds should be […]
The post Why Bitcoin traders have to price tariffs like surprise rate hikes while waiting on social media posts for the next $175B trigger appeared first on CryptoSlate.
The strikes caused bitcoin’s price to fall and oil futures on Hyperliquid to rise over the regional conflict’s consequences.
Traders who bought Bitcoin three to five years ago are still up around 90% on average, even after the latest correction.
Bitcoin’s higher-timeframe structure is in an interesting state, according to crypto analyst Crypto Patel, who is of the notion that the cryptocurrency has officially entered bearish territory after breaking a long-term support level at $107,000. Technical analysis of price action on the weekly candlestick price chart shows Bitcoin is now in this bearish territory, with a projection of a deeper correction to as low as $35,000 in 2026. The outlook is based on Fibonacci retracement levels that could determine Bitcoin’s next price move. Bearish Territory Kicked In After Breakdown Below $107,000 The outlook of this technical analysis is based on the premise that Bitcoin entered into bearish territory after the price broke down below a major higher-timeframe ascending trendline around $107,000. This trendline, which is visible on the weekly chart shared by Crypto Patel, acted as dynamic support throughout much of the 2023 to 2025 rally. It connected a series of higher lows and helped sustain the broader bullish structure that ended with Bitcoin reaching a peak price of $126,080. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Done Or Is This Just The Beginning? Pundit Shares Points To Consider The chart shows the breakdown zone with a red circle, indicating where the price decisively lost that upward support. After the breach, Bitcoin entered into a changed momentum and began printing lower highs. According to Patel, that trendline was the line in the sand, and losing it was when Bitcoin officially entered bearish territory. The market now needs a healthy correction before the next leg up. Fibonacci Levels Point To $44,000 And $35,000 Bitcoin has been on a downward path since the beginning of the year, and the projection is that this will continue until it bottoms out around $35,000. This outlook is based on how much the Bitcoin price corrected in previous cycles. Related Reading: Are Institutions Killing Bitcoin And Ethereum? Here’s How They’ve Fared Since Companies Got Involved For instance, the 2018 bear market saw an approximately 84% decline from peak to trough. Similarly, the 2022 correction erased roughly 77% from its cycle high. In both instances, these deep retracements came before the next major rally. Based on that historical perspective, a move below $50,000 from the current price level would not be unprecedented. Instead, it would fit within Bitcoin’s established cycle behavior. The projected downside targets are derived from Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the October 2025 all-time high. Two levels stand out clearly on the chart. The first level is the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement, which is currently around $44,000. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement is a mid-cycle pullback level and has always attracted strong buying interest in previous corrections, making it a possible stabilization point if selling pressure slows down. Should Bitcoin fail to find support near $44,000, then the next level is the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement around $35,000. The expectation is that Bitcoin will eventually bottom at $35,000 even if it fails to hold above $44,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $63,740, down by 6% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Lawmakers urge US regulators to review Binance’s AML and sanctions controls after reports of Iran-linked transactions and potential evasion risks.
Traders are watching $1.30 as immediate support after heavy-volume selling confirmed a bearish shift.
The man who built the first stablecoin thinks AI agents are about to change how the entire crypto economy works. Reeve Collins, co-founder and first CEO of Tether, sat down with analyst and MN Capital founder Michael van de Poppe to explain why AI is not just another crypto narrative. Collins compared AI’s role in …
The AAVE price didn’t just bleed today but it absorbed a double hit. First came the broader market panic tied to escalating war tensions. Then, just as nerves were already frayed, an internal governance rupture added fuel to the fire. Altcoins were already under pressure. But Aave had its own drama unfolding in parallel. Governance …
TPS breakthroughs get engineers excited, but TradFi is looking at Ethereum because that’s where the liquidity is, says Kevin Lepsoe of ETHGas.