Analysts say ETF flows, onchain stress and critical macro data keep risks elevated despite bitcoin's modest rebound.
A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how a technical analysis (TA) signal that led into major price declines in the past has returned for Bitcoin. Monthly MACD Has Turned Bearish For Bitcoin In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about a signal that has formed in the Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) for Bitcoin. MACD is a TA indicator that’s generally used for timing buys and sells in an asset’s price chart. Related Reading: USDC Floods Exchanges: Are Traders Buying The Bitcoin Crash? The indicator consists of two lines: MACD line and signal line. The first of these, the MACD line, is found by subtracting the 26-period exponential moving average (EMA) of the price from its 12-period EMA. The signal line tracks the 9-period EMA of this difference. Crossovers between the two lines can provide buy or sell signals for the asset. The MACD line breaking above the signal line could be considered a bullish signal, while the reverse type of crossover a bearish one. Now, here is the chart shared by Martinez that shows how the monthly MACD has changed for Bitcoin over the last several years: As displayed in the above graph, the Bitcoin MACD has registered a crossover recently. The MACD line has plunged as the asset has witnessed its bearish momentum and it’s now sitting under the signal line. As mentioned earlier, such a signal can be a bearish one. In the chart, the analyst has highlighted the past instances of this pattern. It would appear that the last three sell signals from the indicator all led into declines of more than 60% for the cryptocurrency. “If that repeats, the chart points to $40,000,” noted Martinez. It now remains to be seen whether the MACD will hold for Bitcoin, or if a different trend from the past will follow this time around. The MACD line falling under its signal line isn’t the only bearish crossover that BTC has faced recently. As the analyst has pointed out in another X post, a classic death cross has also appeared between the asset’s 50-day simple moving average (SMA) and 200-day SMA. From the chart, it’s apparent that the 50-day SMA has declined below the 200-day SMA alongside the latest Bitcoin market downturn. During the past couple of years, each such signal has marked local bottoms for BTC, but in 2022, this crossover kicked off the bear market. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Yet To Top In This Cycle? What aSOPR Suggests So far since the death cross has appeared, the asset has continued to decline, a potential sign that this death cross may be different from the recent ones. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is floating around $88,800, down over 4% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, charts from TradingView.com
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A sharp drawdown has pushed BTC towards heavy put positioning at $80,000 ahead of Friday’s expiry.
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Bitcoin (BTC) is undergoing one of the most challenging periods of the year, with prices retracting nearly 30% from its all-time high of $126,000 reached last month. This decline has raised concerns about a potential bear market, fueling fears within the cryptocurrency community and among BTC investors. Despite this, a new AI-driven simulation by Bitcoin analyst Timothy Peterson offers a more tempered outlook. In a post on X (formerly Twitter), Peterson indicated that while the situation remains complicated, the simulation suggests that the bottom might have already been reached or could occur within the week. Bitcoin Predicted To Experience Slow Recovery In his analysis, Peterson predicts a slow recovery for the Bitcoin price leading up to the year’s end, though he projects less than a 50% chance that Bitcoin will reclaim the $100,000 mark by December 31. Related Reading: CEO Reveals Ripple’s XRP Is Driving A JPMorgan Competitor, Is SWIFT Next? The model presented suggests a nuanced scenario where there is at least a 15% chance that Bitcoin could close lower at approximately $84,500 and an 85% chance of finishing higher. However, it is crucial to note that these estimates are based on seasonal averages and do not account for anticipated changes in the broader economic situation, to which BTC has shown vulnerability throughout the year. Historically, Bitcoin has shown a pattern where significant price movements are often followed by periods of consolidation. If this trend holds, Bitcoin may stabilize within a new range between $84,000 and $90,000, with the $80,000 level serving as a crucial support point for short-term price action. Fed’s December Rate Path According to recent reports, one factor contributing to Bitcoin’s current struggles is the sentiment among investors, particularly those who purchased when prices hovered around $90,000. Related Reading: Attack On Cardano Founder Leads To Network Halt, What Really Happened? With the cryptocurrency now trading below this threshold, approximately at $88,900 when writing, many investors may be hesitant to buy in again, especially if they are facing margin calls due to borrowed funds. The upcoming days could prove pivotal for the broader cryptocurrency market as delayed economic data is set to be released ahead of Thanksgiving. Barron’s reports that if the data strengthens the narrative for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to reduce interest rates in December, it could provide a boost to Bitcoin and its peers. Conversely, if the Fed opts to maintain interest rates, it might trigger further sell-offs in the crypto sector. Victoria Scholar, head of investment at Interactive Investor, emphasizes the importance of the $80,000 technical support level for Bitcoin. She stated that a breach below this level could further embolden bearish sentiments, adding additional downward pressure on prices. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
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As Bitcoin (BTC) attempts to reclaim the $88,000 area, some market observers believe that the recent lows marked the bottom, and a price recovery rally is underway. Nonetheless, other analysts have warned that the flagship crypto’s November pain could continue if the current levels don’t hold. Related Reading: Why XRP Price Crash Below $2 Is Not A Problem – $20 Is Still The Target Bitcoin Finds Local Support On Monday, Bitcoin continued its price recovery from the latest correction, nearing a key resistance for the second consecutive day. Throughout November, the cryptocurrency has struggled to hold multiple crucial levels amid the crypto market volatility, falling below the $100,000 psychological barrier and trading around multi-month lows. Last week, BTC plummeted below the $90,000 level for the first time since April, reaching a low of $80,600 on Friday. Over the weekend, the flagship crypto’s price stabilized, trading between $84,000-$87,000 and briefly retesting the $88,000 resistance before being rejected. Arthur Hayes, co-founder of crypto exchange BitMEX, suggested that Bitcoin’s price will benefit from “minor improvements” in US liquidity trends. In a Monday X post, he forecasted that the price would likely chop below the $90,000 level in the coming weeks, potentially dropping to the $80,000 level once more, but ultimately holding. Similarly, analyst Rekt Capital asserted that Bitcoin is revisiting a key re-accumulation region between $82,500-$93,000, where the price consolidated in Q1 2025 after losing the upper boundary as support. This is where Bitcoin built its base before reversing upward earlier in the cycle, and it continues to define the bottom boundary of the current structure. Together, these levels establish a clear Monthly Range between $82.5k and $93k, framing the broader context for this phase of consolidation. The analyst also highlighted that BTC’s weekly close above the $86,000 level aligns with the crucial monthly range, adding that its price could now begin building a floor around this area to develop a new range between this level and the $93,000 resistance. To him, investors shouldn’t worry if price downside wicks into the liquidity pool between $78,000-$86,000 “as long as general stability persists” at the current levels. No BTC Party Until 2028? Market observer Ted Pillows noted that Bitcoin was unable to reclaim the local highs in the daily and weekly timeframe, suggesting that if the $88,000-$90,000 zone is not successfully turned into support soon, its price could drop toward a new monthly low below the $80,000 mark. Meanwhile, Crypto Bullet shared a bearish outlook for the flagship crypto, affirming that BTC “will not make a new ATH until 2028” based on historical data. He explained that if BTC is repeating its four-year cycle performance, its price potentially reached its cycle top in October and is entering a new corrective phase. The analyst pointed out the similarities between the 2021-2022 bull run and the current one. According to the chart, BTC hovered within an ascending channel, with price rallying to the upper boundary for a second time after a key retest of the ascending support level. Related Reading: Attack On Cardano Founder Leads To Network Halt, What Really Happened? However, when Bitcoin retested the channel’s lower boundary a second time, its price bounced to the channel’s mid-zone before being rejected at the 50-week Moving Average (MA) and losing the multi-year pattern. As BTC is currently retesting the key ascending support, the analyst suggested that BTC will likely retest the $110,000 area in the coming weeks before retracing around 60% to the $40,000 area in 2026. As of this writing, Bitcoin is trading at $88,692, a 2% increase in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
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The recent downturn in the crypto market, which saw total valuations plummet from an all-time high of nearly $4.3 trillion to below the $3 trillion mark, has severely impacted many investors. Among those affected is the Trump family, whose wealth reportedly decreased by $1 billion over the past month, according to Bloomberg. Their current net worth now stands at approximately $6.7 billion, down from $7.7 billion in September. Trump Family’s Crypto Portfolio Takes Major Hits The family’s crypto portfolio has suffered significant losses as a result of recent market conditions, including President Trump’s official memecoin, TRUMP, Eric Trump’s Bitcoin (BTC) mining firm, American Bitcoin (ABTC), and Truth Social—all of which are Bitcoin-related. Related Reading: XRP Real Purpose: Documentation Shows Payment Utility Contrary To Viral Claims — Details One of the hardest-hit entities is Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG), the parent company of Truth Social. Last week, shares of the firm dropped to a record low, resulting in an estimated $800 million decline in Trump’s stake since September. The company has invested heavily in Bitcoin, spending roughly $2 billion on digital assets. Its stockpile of approximately 11,500 BTC, purchased when Bitcoin prices hovered around $115,000, now represents a significant downturn of about 25%. In addition, World Liberty Financial (WLFI), regarded as the Trump family’s principal crypto operation, has seen its value diminish rapidly. WLFI, which was once trading at $0.26, has now fallen to around $0.15 when writing. At its peak, the token’s total valuation reached about $6 billion, but it is now worth just over $4 billion. Despite the difficulties, a spokesperson for World Liberty Financial expressed optimism, stating that “Crypto is here to stay.” The spokesperson emphasized a long-term conviction in the technologies that support digital assets, suggesting that these innovations could transform financial services. Eric Trump Remains Optimistic Following his return to office in January, President Trump’s sons, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., also began collaborating with Hut 8 Corp, a crypto company that supplies Bitcoin mining equipment. In exchange, they secured a controlling interest in a newly formed organization called American Bitcoin Corp. Eric Trump reportedly holds about 7.5% of this new venture. Related Reading: Attack On Cardano Founder Leads To Network Halt, What Really Happened? However, shares of Hut 8, which are traded on Nasdaq, have been cut by nearly half, wiping out over $300 million from Eric Trump’s wealth since September, with shares previously valued at $9.31. Amidst these financial challenges, Eric Trump conveyed a sense of optimism, suggesting that the recent market declines may present “a great buying opportunity.” He emphasized that those who purchase during downturns and embrace market volatility are likely to be the long-term winners in the cryptocurrency landscape. Currently, the market’s leading cryptocurrency has seen a 1.5% recovery on Monday toward $88,430, after reaching an 8-month low of $80,000 last Friday. This positions BTC nearly 30% below all-time highs of $126,000 reached back in October. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
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Bitcoin has been in freefall recently, but this popular indicator is yet to reach the same highs as the last two cycles. Is the real top still ahead for the asset? Bitcoin aSOPR Has Been Consolidating For The Last Two Years As pointed out by an analyst in a CryptoQuant Quicktake post, the Bitcoin aSOPR has been consolidating between converging trendlines for nearly two years. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is an indicator that tells us whether the BTC investors are selling their coins at a profit or loss. Related Reading: USDC Floods Exchanges: Are Traders Buying The Bitcoin Crash? When the value of this metric is greater than 1, it means the average holder is transferring their coins at some net profit on the blockchain. On the other hand, the indicator being below this threshold implies the dominance of loss taking on the network. Naturally, the SOPR being exactly equal to 1 suggests profit realization is canceling out loss realization. In other words, the investors as a whole are just breaking even on their sales. In the context of the current discussion, the version of the SOPR that’s of interest is the Adjusted SOPR (aSOPR). This indicator eliminates from the data sales of all coins that moved within an hour of their last movement. Such moves are usually relay transactions and carry no consequences for the market. Now, here is a chart that shows the trend in the Bitcoin aSOPR over the last few years: As the quant has highlighted in the graph, the 2017 and first-half 2021 bull runs both interestingly topped out as the aSOPR rose to the red line. This level corresponds to a notable degree of profit realization among the investors. Similarly, the bear markets of the last two cycles found their bottoms at about the same time as the aSOPR hitting a low at the green line, some distance below the 1 mark. At this level, loss-taking is dominant, so weak hands capitulating and resolute entities accumulating their coins could be behind the bottom formation pattern. In the current cycle so far, the aSOPR hasn’t touched the red line. Instead, the indicator has been stuck in consolidation inside two converging trendlines in a mild profit-taking region for almost the last two years. Considering the pattern of the last two cycles, it’s possible that the latest one hasn’t hit its top yet. Another possibility, however, could very well be that the aSOPR simply isn’t going to touch the red level in this cycle at all. Related Reading: Bitcoin Mayer Multiple Retraces To Lower Bound—What Comes Next? The Bitcoin aSOPR is now slowly inching toward the end of its converging channel, so a breakout one way or the other could happen soon. It only remains to be seen which direction the indicator will exit. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $86,300, down 9% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, CryptoQuant.com, chart from TradingView.com
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