Vitalik Buterin says future crypto wallets will likely integrate AI, but he warns they should not directly control large transactions. Instead, AI could suggest a transaction plan while the wallet runs a simulation to preview the outcome. Users would then review the results and confirm manually. The goal is to ensure that what users intend …
The company behind the clothing brand Original Penguin has accused Pudgy Penguins’ clothing merchandise of infringing on its trademarks.
OKB surged about 23% in the past 24 hours, becoming one of the day’s biggest crypto gainers. The rally followed news that Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), the parent company of the New York Stock Exchange, has invested in crypto exchange OKX at a $25 billion valuation and secured a board seat. The partnership plans to bring …
The crypto exchange said it will begin a phased rollout on March 6 to select users before broader availability.
The altcoins with “real world” traction and application will be the winners of the next altcoin season, says Bitwise’s Matt Hougan.
Vancouver city staff concluded that bitcoin is not an allowable asset for municipal investment under local law.
Data shows the Bitcoin spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen their 14-day netflow trend climb into the positive territory, ending a period of sustained outflows. Bitcoin Spot ETF Netflow Has Been Rising Recently As highlighted by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode in a new post on X, the Bitcoin spot ETFs have seen their 14-day netflow trend climb higher recently. “Spot ETFs” refer to investment vehicles that allow investors to gain indirect exposure to an underlying asset’s price movements. Related Reading: Bitcoin Surge To $74,000 Fueled By US Institutions, Coinbase Premium Signals In the United States, the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) approved spot ETFs for Bitcoin back in January 2024. Thus, these funds have now been active for more than two years. Since spot ETFs trade on traditional markets, they provide for an off-chain route into BTC. Whenever a trader invests into them, the fund buys the on-chain tokens and custodies them on their behalf. This convenience of the vehicles has made them a popular mode of investment among the more traditional investors, like institutional entities. Now, here is the chart shared by Glassnode that shows the 14-day netflow trend for the Bitcoin spot ETFs over their history so far: As displayed in the above graph, the 14-day Bitcoin spot ETF netflow trend has witnessed a sharp rise into the positive territory recently. Note that Glassnode defines “netflow” as the 30-day change in the combined holdings of the US-based funds. Earlier, the netflow trend had dropped into the negative territory, implying outflows were dominating the market. Not only that, the negative netflows had been persistent, so there was consistent selling pressure coming from ETF users. With the recent surge in the metric, however, the trend appears to have flipped. From the chart, it’s visible that the indicator has witnessed a continuation to the growth as the Bitcoin price has rallied above the $70,000 level. “Institutional demand remains tentative, but early re-accumulation signs are emerging,” noted Glassnode. It now remains to be seen whether spot ETFs will follow this trajectory in the near future or if another cooldown will happen. Related Reading: Bitcoin Historically Bottoms Between These MVRV Levels—Where Are They Now? In some other news, the Binance Bitcoin Net Taker Volume has shot up recently, as CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn has pointed out in an X post. The Net Taker Volume is an indicator that keeps track of the difference between the taker buy and taker sell volumes on a given exchange (which, in the current case, is Binance). As is visible in the above graph, the 7-hour moving average (MA) of the Binance Bitcoin Net Taker Volume has seen a notable positive spike close to $100 million, suggesting taker buy volume has outpaced the taker sell one. “The current pump is mirroring the moves from Nov 7 and Nov 25,” said Maartunn. BTC Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $71,000, up more than 5% in the last seven days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
“Even after the recent price rally, fundamental and technical indicators still point to a bear market environment,” said CryptoQuant.
Pudgy Penguins is facing a trademark lawsuit from PEI Licensing, the company behind the Original Penguin clothing brand. The case was filed in a Florida federal court, accusing the NFT project of using and attempting to register penguin-related trademarks without permission. PEI Licensing claims the branding could confuse consumers and violates trademark and fair competition …
Risk assets recover from oil-driven selloff as rising yields pressure Fed rate-cut bets.
Macroeconomist Lyn Alden says gold has a “somewhat euphoric” sentiment around it, while Bitcoin is being treated “somewhat unfairly negative.”
Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas says Solana ETF inflows are posting “pretty impressive numbers,” even as the token has dropped by more than half since they launched.
Social media mentions of "altseason" have dropped to their lowest level in two years, according to Santiment data, a contrarian signal that has preceded previous rallies in speculative crypto assets.
Dogecoin corrected some gains and traded below $0.10 against the US Dollar. DOGE is now holding the $0.0920 support and might aim for a fresh increase. DOGE price started a fresh downside correction below $0.10. The price is trading below the $0.0965 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. There is a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $0.0932 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The price could aim for a fresh increase if it remains stable above $0.0920. Dogecoin Price Dips Again Dogecoin price started a downside correction after it failed to stay above $0.1020, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. DOGE declined below the $0.10 and $0.0965 levels. There was a move below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $0.0885 swing low to the $0.1043 high. The price even spiked below $0.0950 before the bulls appeared. The price is now forming a base above $0.09320 and preparing for the next move. There is also a connecting bullish trend line forming with support at $0.0932 on the hourly chart of the DOGE/USD pair. Dogecoin price is now trading above the $0.0935 level and the 100-hourly simple moving average. Immediate resistance on the upside is near the $0.0950 level. The first major resistance for the bulls could be near the $0.0978 level. The next major resistance is near the $0.10 level. A close above the $0.10 resistance might send the price toward $0.1050. Any more gains might send the price toward $0.1120. The next major stop for the bulls might be $0.1165. Another Decline In DOGE? If DOGE’s price fails to climb above the $0.0950 level, it could continue to move down. Initial support on the downside is near the $0.0932 level. The next major support is near the $0.0920 level or the 76.4% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $0.0885 swing low to the $0.1043 high. The main support sits at $0.0880. If there is a downside break below the $0.0880 support, the price could decline further. In the stated case, the price might slide toward the $0.0820 level. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for DOGE/USD is now gaining momentum in the bearish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for DOGE/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $0.0.920 and $0.0880. Major Resistance Levels – $0.0950 and $0.0978.
XRP has climbed back above the $1.40 mark this week, a level that previously acted as resistance, but analysts warn that the rally does not eliminate the risk of a deeper pullback. The cryptocurrency’s most critical support zone at $1.30 remains under pressure, and broader market forces—particularly Bitcoin’s (BTC) price action—could determine what happens next. XRP Locked Between $1.30 Support And $1.50 Resistance In a recent report, analyst Sam Daodu described $1.30 as the most heavily tested support level for XRP so far in 2026. Since February, the token has repeatedly slipped into the low $1.30 range, only to find buyers stepping in before a decisive breakdown could occur. Related Reading: Bitcoin Tops $73,000, Expert Explains Why The Rally Isn’t Over Yet According to Daodu, a key reason XRP has continued to defend this area is that it is slightly lower, around $1.27. On-chain cost basis data indicates that roughly 443 million XRP were accumulated at that price level. As the market approaches this entry point, many of these holders have added to their positions, creating buying pressure that has consistently pushed the price back above $1.30. For now, Daodu sees XRP trading within a clearly defined range, with $1.30 acting as the floor and $1.50 serving as resistance. The analyst said a meaningful shift in trend would require a breakout beyond one of those levels, and the direction of that move will likely depend on external catalysts. Bitcoin And Middle East Tensions As Key Threats Bitcoin stands out as the most significant variable. XRP and BTC are currently moving in close alignment, with a reported correlation of 0.84. Historically, XRP has tended to magnify Bitcoin’s price swings by roughly 1.8 times. In practical terms, that means a 10% decline in Bitcoin could translate into an 18% drop for XRP. Daodu cautions that if Bitcoin were to fall below $60,000 again, XRP would likely follow, regardless of the token’s individual fundamentals or technical structure. Geopolitical factors are also contributing to market fragility. Rising tensions in the Middle East have already sparked risk-off sentiment across the crypto market in early March. Should the situation worsen, Daodu said investors could reduce exposure to more speculative assets first, placing additional pressure on altcoins such as XRP. BTC As The Key To Break $1.50? On the upside, a sustained breakout above $1.50 would likely require more than just stability in Bitcoin. Historically, altcoins gain momentum when Bitcoin advances decisively, drawing fresh capital into the broader market. Daodu posits that XRP is no exception; a strong upward move in BTC could provide the tailwind needed for the altcoin to attempt surpass higher resistance levels. Related Reading: Crypto Treasury Inflows Slide To October 2024 Levels—What Happened? Between $1.58 and $1.60 lies a substantial supply zone. Approximately 2 billion XRP were purchased at those levels, leaving many holders underwater for months. As the price approaches that range, investors seeking to exit at breakeven could generate heavy selling pressure, the analyst reported. Clearing $1.50 would signal renewed strength, but absorbing supply closer to $1.60 may prove to be the more difficult challenge. At the time of writing, XRP was trading at $1.41, marking a 3% loss over the previous 24 hours. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Traders are watching $1.40 support after high-volume selling confirmed continued bearish structure.
Ripple Prime Opens the Door to Coinbase Derivatives Ripple is pushing deeper into institutional markets by integrating derivatives trading from Coinbase directly into its Ripple Prime platform, as per reports. The move allows institutional clients to access Coinbase’s full range of crypto derivatives contracts while keeping clearing, financing, and risk management within Ripple’s brokerage framework. …
Crypto security researchers say the hacker exploited a bug allowing them to mint tokens, before swapping the freely-gained tokens for another tied to Bitcoin.
BTC surged nearly 12% from Saturday's lows before stalling, with Asia's benchmark equities index headed for its worst week since March 2020.
XRP price failed to stay above $1.460 and started a downside correction. The price is now holding the $1.3880 support and might aim for another increase. XRP price started a downside correction and declined below $1.4450. The price is now trading above $1.380 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key declining channel forming with resistance at $1.430 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could start another increase if it stays above $1.3880. XRP Price Dips To Support XRP price failed to stay above $1.450 and started a downside correction, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price dipped below the $1.4450 and $1.4320 levels to enter a negative zone. The price even dipped below the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1.3362 swing low to the $1.4739 high. Besides, there is a key declining channel forming with resistance at $1.430 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. The bulls are now active above the $1.3880 zone. The price is now trading below $1.40 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If there is a fresh upward move, the price might face resistance near the $1.420 level. The first major resistance is near the $1.430 level, above which the price could rise and test $1.450. A clear move above the $1.450 resistance might send the price toward the $1.4720 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $1.50 resistance. The next major hurdle for the bulls might be near $1.5250. More Losses? If XRP fails to clear the $1.430 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $1.40 level. The next major support is near the $1.3880 level and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1.3362 swing low to the $1.4739 high. If there is a downside break and a close below the $1.3880 level, the price might continue to decline toward $1.3680. The next major support sits near the $1.350 zone, below which the price could continue lower toward $1.3350. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $1.4000 and $1.3880. Major Resistance Levels – $1.4300 and $1.4500.
The Federal Reserve and US banking regulators have clarified that tokenized securities are subject to the same capital treatment as traditional assets.
For most of Solana’s short history, meme coin trading defined a large chunk of its activity. That appears to be changing. According to a research note from Grayscale Investments, February’s record volume – $650 billion in stablecoin transactions – was driven by a move toward SOL–stablecoin trading pairs and real payment activity — not speculative bets on short-lived tokens. Related Reading: US Should Act On Bitcoin, Not Just Praise It, Ex-Advisor To Trump Says The network processed more transactions tied to practical money movement than at any point in its existence. The massive figure covers stablecoin transactions recorded on Solana during February 2026. It marks the highest monthly total ever logged on any blockchain — and it arrived in just 28 days. Grayscale’s data shows the number more than doubled the previous peak, which was set only four months earlier in October 2025. Low Fees Drive Small Payment Growth Standard Chartered had previously flagged Solana’s fee structure as a key reason the network was drawing payment-focused users. Low transaction costs make small transfers practical in a way that higher-fee blockchains cannot easily match. Developers have taken notice, building financial tools designed to run entirely on the internet, including micropayment systems that would be unworkable at higher cost per transaction. Stablecoins Power Blockchains Stablecoins — digital tokens pegged to currencies like the US dollar — have become one of the main engines of blockchain activity broadly. On Solana, they are increasingly being used to move money rather than to trade in and out of volatile assets. That distinction matters. Volume built on payments tends to be stickier than volume built on speculation, which can evaporate when market conditions shift. Solana now holds the fourth-largest stablecoin supply of any blockchain. Its ranking in USDC circulation is even more striking: second place, trailing only Ethereum. USDC is widely regarded as the stablecoin most favored by institutional users, which makes Solana’s position in that particular ranking significant. Ethereum Holds Its Ground On High-Value Assets The February data does not suggest Solana has overtaken Ethereum overall. According to figures from rwa.xyz, Ethereum carried $15.57 billion in tokenized real-world assets over the past 30 days. Solana’s comparable figure was $2 billion. Tokenized assets — which can include bonds, real estate, and other financial instruments brought onto a blockchain — represent the higher-value end of on-chain finance, and Ethereum remains the dominant platform for that segment. Related Reading: Iran’s Crypto Market Shaken As Outflows Skyrocket 700% What Solana appears to be winning is the retail and payments layer: fast, cheap, high-frequency transfers that add up quickly in volume even if individual transactions are small. Whether that translates into broader institutional adoption remains an open question, but February’s numbers give the network a data point it did not have before. Featured image from SOPA/Getty Images, chart from TradingView
Senator Chris Murphy says it’s likely people close to Donald Trump with “inside information” made bets on prediction markets on when the US would strike Iran.
Ethereum price started a fresh increase and tested $2,200. ETH is now correcting gains and might decline further if it trades below $2,030. Ethereum started a downside correction below the $2,120 zone. The price is trading above $2,065 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a key bullish trend line forming with support at $2,030 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD (data feed via Kraken). The pair could start a fresh decline if it stays below the $2,135 zone. Ethereum Price Starts Downside Correction Ethereum price started a fresh increase above the $2,065 resistance, like Bitcoin. ETH price rallied above the $2,120 and $2,150 resistance levels. The bulls even pumped the price above $2,180. A high was formed at $2,200 before there was a downside correction. The price dipped below $2,120 and tested the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,929 swing low to the $2,200 high. Ethereum price is now trading above $2,065 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is also a key bullish trend line forming with support at $2,030 on the hourly chart of ETH/USD. If the bulls remain in action above $2,030, the price could attempt another increase. Immediate resistance is seen near the $2,100 level. The first key resistance is near the $2,135 level. The next major resistance is near the $2,150 level. A clear move above the $2,150 resistance might send the price toward the $2,200 resistance. An upside break above the $2,200 region might call for more gains in the coming days. In the stated case, Ether could rise toward the $2,250 resistance zone or even $2,320 in the near term. More Losses In ETH? If Ethereum fails to clear the $2,135 resistance, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $2,065 level. The first major support sits near the $2,030 zone, the trend line, and the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $1,929 swing low to the $2,200 high. A clear move below the $2,030 support might push the price toward the $2,000 support. Any more losses might send the price toward the $1,965 region. The main support could be $1,920. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for ETH/USD is losing momentum in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI – The RSI for ETH/USD is now below the 50 zone. Major Support Level – $2,030 Major Resistance Level – $2,135
Orbit allows traders to disclose portfolio data and earn rewards tied to follower engagement in what OKX is touting as a transparency play.
Bitcoin is regaining strength after pushing back above the $70,000 level, a move that has helped restore a degree of bullish sentiment following weeks of heightened volatility. The recovery comes after a turbulent period for global markets, during which geopolitical developments and macro uncertainty triggered sharp swings in price action across risk assets. Related Reading: Manufacturing The Bitcoin Reserve: Inside The Trump Family’s 11,000-Miner Expansion At American Bitcoin According to a recent report from CryptoQuant by XWIN Research Japan, Bitcoin experienced notable volatility between late January and early March 2026. During this period, the asset briefly fell into the mid-$60,000 range before staging a sharp rebound in early March that lifted prices back toward the $73,000 area. The report notes that the initial decline was largely triggered by geopolitical developments. On February 28, reports of a US–Israel military strike on Iran escalated tensions across the Middle East, injecting significant uncertainty into global markets. As risk sentiment deteriorated, Bitcoin quickly dropped to roughly $63,000 on February 29. However, the sell-off proved short-lived. Market conditions stabilized within days, and by March 2 Bitcoin had already recovered to around the $70,000 level. Momentum accelerated shortly afterward, as renewed buying pressure between March 4 and March 5 pushed BTC above $73,000, signaling a potential shift in short-term sentiment as investors reassess the broader market environment. ETF Inflows And Short Covering Fuel Bitcoin’s Rebound The CryptoQuant report further explains that renewed inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs played a major role in driving the recent rebound. In early March, several hundred million dollars flowed into these investment vehicles, providing direct support to spot market demand. On March 4 alone, ETF inflows exceeded $200 million, highlighting a resurgence in institutional participation after a period of weaker activity. Derivatives markets also contributed significantly to the rally. Open Interest increased sharply while funding rates shifted into negative territory, indicating that many traders had positioned aggressively on the short side. As Bitcoin’s price began to rise, these crowded short positions were forced to unwind, triggering waves of short liquidations that amplified upward momentum through short covering. On-chain indicators present a more nuanced picture. The report notes that some bearish signals remain, including the 90-day Realized Profit/Loss Ratio staying below 1.0 and a growing share of coins currently held at unrealized losses. At the same time, constructive developments are emerging beneath the surface. One example is the Coinbase Premium Index, which recently returned to positive territory after an extended period of negative readings. This shift suggests that demand from US-based investors is beginning to recover. The move toward $73,000 appears to be driven primarily by a combination of ETF inflows and short-covering in derivatives. Related Reading: The $11,000 Deficit: Why the Record $8.9B Bitcoin ETF Drawdown Is Paralyzing Wall Street’s BTC Appetite Bitcoin Breaks Above Key Resistance As Momentum Strengthens The chart shows Bitcoin trading near $73,100 after a strong upward move that pushed the price decisively above the $70,000 level. This breakout follows several weeks of consolidation between roughly $64,000 and $69,000, where the market repeatedly tested both support and resistance without establishing a clear direction. From a technical perspective, the recent rally allowed Bitcoin to reclaim its short-term moving averages, including the 50-period and 100-period lines, which had previously acted as resistance during the consolidation phase. The ability to break above these levels suggests a shift in short-term momentum as buyers regain control of the market. Related Reading: Surpassing FTX-Era Lows: 38% Of Altcoins Hit Record Lows As Liquidity Abandons The Crypto Fringe Price is now approaching the 200-period moving average, which sits slightly above the current level and represents a key technical barrier near the $74,000 region. This level could act as the next resistance zone, as longer-term participants often use it as a reference for trend confirmation. Volume has also increased during the breakout, indicating stronger participation as the market moves higher. The sharp upward candles reflect aggressive buying pressure, which aligns with the short-covering dynamics observed in derivatives markets. If Bitcoin manages to consolidate above $70,000, the breakout could establish this level as a new support zone. However, failure to maintain this structure could lead to another retest of the $68,000–$69,000 region before the market attempts a new directional move. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
The move comes shortly after Intercontinental Exchange valued OKX at $25 billion and reflects a broader push to combine trading, community and market data in one platform.
Bitcoin price started a steady increase above $70,500 and $72,500. BTC is now consolidating and might aim for a fresh increase above $72,500. Bitcoin started a fresh increase after it settled above the $70,000 zone. The price is trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is a bullish trend line forming with support at $69,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair (data feed from Kraken). The pair might dip again if it trades below the $70,000 and $69,000 levels. Bitcoin Price Starts Downside Correction Bitcoin price extended its increase above the $68,500 zone. BTC gained pace for a move above the $70,000 resistance zone. The price even rallied above the $72,000 resistance. Finally, the bears appeared near $74,000. A high was formed at $74,062, and the price recently started a downside correction. There was a move below $72,000 and the 23.6% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $66,164 swing low to the $74,062 high. Bitcoin is now trading above $70,000 and the 100 hourly simple moving average. There is also a bullish trend line forming with support at $69,000 on the hourly chart of the BTC/USD pair. If the price remains stable above $70,000, it could attempt a fresh increase. Immediate resistance is near the $72,000 level. The first key resistance is near the $72,500 level. A close above the $72,500 resistance might send the price further higher. In the stated case, the price could rise and test the $73,200 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $74,000 level. The next barrier for the bulls could be $75,000 and $75,500. Downside Correction In BTC? If Bitcoin fails to rise above the $72,000 resistance zone, it could start another decline. Immediate support is near the $70,000 level or the 50% Fib retracement level of the upward move from the $66,164 swing low to the $74,062 high. The first major support is near the $69,000 level. The next support is now near the $68,500 zone. Any more losses might send the price toward the $68,000 support in the near term. The main support now sits at $66,200, below which BTC might struggle to recover in the near term. Technical indicators: Hourly MACD – The MACD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for BTC/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $70,000, followed by $69,000. Major Resistance Levels – $72,000 and $72,500.
Renowned macro analyst Alex Krüger is pushing back on a comparison that has taken hold across desks since strikes involving Iran began: that markets are replaying the 2022 Russia-Ukraine shock, with crypto and Bitcoin in particular tracing an uncomfortably familiar pattern. Yes, the setups rhyme, Krüger wrote in a March 4 Substack note. But he argues the analogy breaks where it matters for Bitcoin: monetary policy and the persistence of the energy shock. “Markets are panicking. Everyone sees 2022 again. The chart setups look almost identical and the energy shock is real,” he wrote. “But the comparison falls apart under scrutiny. The macro is different, and the oil disruption is transitory.” What Is Crucial For Bitcoin Now Krüger’s starting point is historical rather than crypto-specific: wars and kinetic conflicts have often created “buying opportunities,” even when the initial impulse is risk-off. The reason 2022 became so toxic for risk, he says, wasn’t the invasion itself, it was what came after. In 2022, Bitcoin and overall risk assets bottomed on the day Russia invaded Ukraine (Feb. 24), then bounced hard, then rolled over by late March as markets resumed sliding. The war was the catalyst, not the engine. The engine was a Federal Reserve forced into an aggressive hiking cycle with inflation already running hot, and an oil spike that worsened the inflation problem. Krüger’s core claim is that 2026 does not have the same policy backdrop. In 2022, the Fed was “behind the curve” with year-over-year inflation at 7.9% and the real Fed Funds rate around -7.5% when war broke out. Today, he says the Fed is in “wait-and-see mode,” with inflation trending lower and real rates around +1.2%. Related Reading: Manufacturing The Bitcoin Reserve: Inside The Trump Family’s 11,000-Miner Expansion At American Bitcoin He frames the policy asymmetry in blunt terms: “Even if the oil spike pushes headline inflation temporarily higher, the Fed has room to look through it. At +1.2% real rates, they don’t need to tighten into a supply shock. In 2022 they had no choice — at -7.5% they were catastrophically behind. That’s the difference that matters for risk assets.” Krüger points to recent Fed communication as consistent with that stance. John Williams said oil would affect the “near-term inflation outlook” but that persistence mattered: “code for: we’re not moving unless this lasts,” Krüger wrote, while noting the US is less oil-dependent than past decades. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also argued the US is “in a very different position than when Russia invaded Ukraine.” Since the strikes began, Krüger noted, four Fed officials have spoken publicly without changing their outlook; Williams described the market reaction as “muted,” Neel Kashkari said it’s “too soon to know” and still sees one to two cuts this year if inflation cools, and hawk Beth Hammack called policy “neutral” while urging an extended pause. The second pillar of Krüger’s argument is that the oil disruption in 2026 is more likely to be temporary than the structural break of 2022. Then, Europe lost access to roughly 4.5 million barrels per day of Russian crude and refined products and sanctions made that disruption effectively permanent; Brent surged near $130 on March 8 and didn’t sustainably break below $90 until late August. Related Reading: Bitcoin To $11 Million By 2036? This AI-Deflation Thesis Is Turning Heads This time, he argues, Iran’s own barrels are not the key variable. Iran produced roughly 3.3 million bpd and exported about 1.9 million bpd before the strikes, mostly to China through shadow channels at an $11–$12 discount to Brent, with most of its tanker fleet already sanctioned, meaning “additional sanctions on Iran post-war would change nothing.” The market’s focus, instead, is the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 14 million bpd transits — about 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption and where traffic has “dropped almost to a standstill.” Krüger says the futures curve is doing the real talking. In 2022, the front month repriced about +50% and the tenth contract +29%, signaling a long repair job. In 2026, he estimates the front month is up +32% but the tenth contract only +12%, “despite a shock affecting 4.4x more barrels,” implying traders see an expiration date to the disruption rather than a rewiring of supply chains. Tail Risk Is The Curve’s “Tell” Krüger is explicit about what could turn a “transitory” shock into a 2022-style regime shift: direct, repeated hits that take refining capacity or LNG offline for months. Iran has already struck Ras Tanura, Fujairah, and Qatari LNG facilities, he wrote, mostly with debris from intercepted drones but he sees an escalation pattern toward energy infrastructure, with “tens of thousands of drones in reserve.” “If direct hits start landing on refining capacity — SAMREF, Jebel Ali, Jubail — that is lost production that does not come back with a ceasefire. Refineries take months to repair,” he wrote. “And the risk is no longer limited to oil. This is becoming a products and gas crisis, not just a crude problem.” Krüger added that QatarEnergy has shut down LNG output at Ras Laffan and Mesaieed, removing roughly a fifth of global LNG export capacity. For Bitcoin, the takeaway is less about pattern-matching the chart and more about watching whether the macro “off-switch” remains credible. Krüger’s rule of thumb is simple: if the back end of the curve starts repricing, for example, if that tenth contract moves from roughly +12% toward +25%, the market is signaling the shock is turning structural. “But as of today,” he wrote, “the curve hasn’t blinked. Don’t confuse a transitory geopolitical shock (2026) with a major liquidity crisis (2022).” At press time, Bitcoin traded at $ Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
PsiQuantum co-founder Terry Rudolph said in July it has no plans to attack Bitcoin, even if its upcoming facility becomes powerful enough to break the blockchain’s cryptography.