Crypto markets head into the weekend after a sharp relief bounce across majors, but price behavior shows a clear divergence. Bitcoin price is stabilizing after a deep sell-off, while Ethereum price is attempting to reclaim structure after a more aggressive breakdown. The key question for traders is whether this move marks an early rotation into …
Crypto markets witnessed a mild recovery today after last week’s sharp sell-off, with Bitcoin stabilizing and altcoins attempting to form short-term bases. Solana joined the rebound, climbing over 5% to reclaim the $85 level after briefly dipping into the low-$70s. The move has eased immediate downside pressure, but on-chain data suggests the market is still …
Bitcoin ripped from $60,000 to above $70,000 in less than 24 hours, erasing most of a brutal 14% drawdown that had tested every bottom-calling thesis in the market. The speed of the reversal, 12% in a single session and 17% off the intraday low, was violent enough to feel like a capitulation resolved. Yet, the […]
The post Bitcoin rocketed 15% to get back above $70,000 but the options market is currently pricing in a terrifying new floor appeared first on CryptoSlate.
The crypto market just had one of its worst days in months, and Trump might have felt the heat too. In a recent video breakdown by The Bulwark, hosts Tim Miller and Catherine Rampell unpacked the crash, what caused it, and why the Trump family’s deep crypto exposure makes this sell-off different from the rest. …
While some consider the altcoins season may never come, others believe the altcoin market has changed, suggesting that a different version of the highly anticipated rally is in its early stages. Related Reading: Ethereum Targets April 2025 Lows As Price Drops Below $2,000 – What’s Next For ETH? ‘Inverted Altcoin Season’ Just Begun On Friday, the market recovered 15% from its multi-year lows, with most cryptocurrencies bouncing in the short-term timeframe. Amid the recent crash, investors’ sentiment has sunk to its lowest levels since 2022, with many expressing concerns about the future performance of altcoins. Market observer Ali Martinez discussed how the long-awaited altcoin season might have started, but not in the way most investors expected. In an X post, the analyst highlighted that after Bitcoin bottomed in November 2022, a nearly three-year bull run began, which carried the flagship crypto to its October all-time high (ATH). “During that entire period, many traders kept waiting for a traditional altcoin season: the familiar phase where Bitcoin rises and capital rotates broadly into altcoins, lifting nearly everything together,” he noted. However, unlike a traditional alt season, the market didn’t see altcoins rally all at once this cycle. Instead, many altcoins have been simultaneously breaking down structurally, with “channels that held for years (…) failing, support levels (…) giving way, and downside expansions (…) accelerating.” To him, “we are witnessing what I would call an inverted altcoin season.” Martinez noted the performance of cryptocurrencies like Filecoin (FIL), Polkadot (DOT), Avalanche (AVAX), and Cardano (ADA), which have either completed or started the breakdown from their macro channel supports. He considers this to be where new opportunities emerge: For traders willing to shift their bias, this environment has created meaningful opportunities — especially on the short side. (…) What’s important is that this pattern isn’t finished playing out. As a result, the analyst affirmed that the new inverted altcoin season is in its early stages, concluding that this cycle, it “didn’t arrive as a broad rally. It arrived as a selective unwind.” No More Broader Altcoins Rally? During a Thursday panel at the Ondo Summit 2026, Bitget’s CEO Gracy Chen discussed what crypto will look like in 2030. The executive predicted that the Real-World Asset (RWA) sector will grow significantly in the next four years, with “everything tokenized.” However, she also shared the “controversial opinion” that the highly anticipated alt season “may never come” and that altcoins could never rally all at once again, which would be “a little bit tricky” for crypto businesses, she added. Others have previously discussed market changes and whether the “old cycles” for Bitcoin and altcoins still hold. Last year, analyst Altcoin Sherpa asserted that the crypto market is in a “hyper-accelerated regime.” He explained that the earlier cycles consisted of euphoric, corrective, and accumulation phases before the start of a recovery phase. Meanwhile, the market now experiences short-term uptrends followed by mid-term downtrends under the new regime. “We have 1-3 months of pump followed by 2-6 months of downtrend and rinse repeat,” he wrote. “There is no more euphoria where things go berserk for an entire year. Just 1-3 months and then down.” Related Reading: Solana Eyes Deeper Correction As Bearish Pattern Confirmation Targets $40 Based on the new system, he advised traders not to expect 2021-like market conditions for most altcoins or a traditional Alt season. Instead, Altcoin Sherpa suggested that investors should capitalize on shorter rallies while being aware of their limited duration. Nonetheless, he noted that, unlike previous cycles, altcoins will also recover faster and won’t take over a year to bottom and accumulate before a fresh leg up begins. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
The unwinding of Trend Research's ETH position highlights the volatility and risks associated with leveraged crypto investments.
The post Ethereum whale Trend Research unwinds ETH position as losses reach $747M appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Cardano’s native token ADA has made a strong comeback, rising nearly 10% today to trade around $0.27 after falling close to $0.22 earlier this week. The sharp recovery has renewed optimism among investors and raised fresh questions about whether ADA is preparing for a bigger rally ahead. Institutional & whale Buying Boosts ADA Confidence One …
China is tightening the screws on crypto again. The People’s Bank of China and seven other government agencies released a revised joint notice on Friday, banning unauthorized offshore issuance of yuan-pegged stablecoins. The notice also brings RWA tokenization under regulatory control for the first time. The agencies stated that stablecoins pegged to fiat currencies “perform …
Bitcoin is hovering around the $65,000 level as persistent selling pressure continues to weigh on market sentiment. The recent decline has intensified uncertainty among investors, with volatility rising while liquidity conditions remain fragile. After a strong rally earlier in the cycle, price action now reflects a more defensive phase, with traders increasingly focused on downside risk rather than upside momentum. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Deep In Loss: MVRV Signals Capitulation Phase A recent CryptoQuant report frames the central question facing the crypto market: how far this bear phase could extend before a durable bottom forms. Bitcoin has declined roughly 17% this year, a move attributed to several converging factors. These include approximately $12 billion in institutional ETF outflows over the past three months, broader global risk aversion tied to macroeconomic conditions, and ongoing regulatory ambiguity that continues to limit large-scale capital commitment. Despite the negative backdrop, analysts note that intense institutional selling does not necessarily preclude a reversal. Historically, periods of heavy distribution often precede accumulation phases. The analytical focus is therefore shifting toward identifying a potential accumulation zone — a price range where selling pressure becomes exhausted, and larger market participants begin rebuilding exposure. That transition, if confirmed, would likely mark the early stages of trend stabilization rather than an immediate recovery. Market Cycle Signals: Capitulation Phase Or Early Accumulation? According to the report, understanding the current Bitcoin environment requires focusing on market structure rather than short-term price forecasts. One framework gaining attention is the BTC Market Cycle Signals indicator, an on-chain analytical tool that interprets Bitcoin’s cycle through three distinct phases using monthly Bollinger Band positioning. This approach aims to contextualize volatility rather than simply react to it. The first phase, Distribution, typically occurs when the price reaches or exceeds the upper Bollinger Band, often reflecting euphoric sentiment and profit-taking behavior. This stage historically aligns with cycle tops. The second phase, Capitulation, emerges when price declines below the 20-month moving average and gravitates toward the lower band, signaling panic, forced selling, and deteriorating sentiment. Finally, the Accumulation phase represents conditions where long-term positioning becomes favorable, although this zone does not always coincide with the exact market bottom. Current price action appears to be converging toward the level associated with early accumulation, estimated around $54,600. Historically, this range has acted as a transitional zone between capitulation and renewed accumulation activity. However, this should be interpreted cautiously. While such indicators help clarify cycle positioning, they do not eliminate uncertainty. Market reversals typically require confirmation through liquidity inflows, improving sentiment, and sustained structural demand rather than technical positioning alone. Related Reading: Ethereum Coinbase Premium Drops To 2022 Bear-Market Levels: Capitulation Or Further Downside? Bitcoin Breaks Key Support As Bearish Momentum Intensifies Bitcoin continues to trade under heavy pressure, with the weekly chart showing a decisive breakdown below the $70,000 level after several weeks of weakening structure. Price recently closed near $67,200 following a sharp rejection from the mid-$90K region, confirming a clear lower-high formation and reinforcing a bearish trend continuation. The move also represents a loss of momentum after the failed recovery attempt above the 50-week moving average, which had previously acted as dynamic support during the uptrend. Technically, Bitcoin is now trading below the 50-week and 100-week moving averages. While the 200-week average remains significantly lower near the mid-$50K area. Historically, this zone has acted as a major long-term support. Suggesting that further downside in that region cannot be ruled out if selling pressure persists. Volume expansion during the recent drop indicates distribution rather than simple low-liquidity volatility. Related Reading: Are We Near A Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom? History Offers A Framework The market appears to be transitioning from a late bull-cycle correction into a potential bear-market consolidation phase. Unless Bitcoin quickly reclaims the $70K–$75K range and stabilizes above it, the probability of continued downside or prolonged sideways accumulation remains elevated in the near term. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Vietnam’s Finance Ministry proposes a 0.1% tax on crypto transfers, 20% corporate tax on profits and tough licensing standards for digital asset exchanges.
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has quietly made a strong statement about where he thinks crypto should be heading. He recently donated to Shielded Labs, a research group working on a major upgrade for Zcash, signaling his growing focus on privacy and long-term security rather than hype or short-term growth. The donation supports the development of …
Bitcoin fell sharply to $60,000 this week, shaking investor confidence, even though the market has many positive developments. On CNBC’s Closing Bell Overtime, SkyBridge Capital founder Anthony Scaramucci explained why Bitcoin can still have big swings, despite favorable regulation, the approval of ETFs, and growing interest from large investors. A Rough Week for Bitcoin This …
Crypto markets attempted to stabilize today, with Bitcoin holding above the $67,000 mark and several major altcoins showing short-term relief rallies after aggressive liquidation-driven selloffs. Risk appetite, while fragile, showed early signs of returning across parts of the market. WLFI price has failed to participate in that rebound. Instead, WLFI price extended losses, remaining one …
A new theory circulating in the crypto market is challenging how investors interpret Bitcoin’s recent price decline. In a post shared on X (formerly Twitter), market analyst Crypto Rover argued that Bitcoin is no longer trading as a simple supply-and-demand asset, and that this structural shift is a major reason behind the current sell-off. A ‘Parallel Financial Layer’ Rover’s central claim is that although Bitcoin’s on-chain supply cap of 21 million coins has not changed, the way Bitcoin is traded in modern financial markets has effectively diluted its scarcity. According to him, focusing only on spot buying and selling misses what is really driving price action today. BTC, he says, no longer moves primarily based on physical ownership of coins, but on activity in massive derivatives markets that now dominate price discovery. Related Reading: What Went Wrong With Crypto? A Postmortem As the analyst highlighted, in Bitcoin’s early years, its valuation rested on two fundamental principles: a strictly fixed supply of 21 million coins and the impossibility of duplicating that supply. These features made Bitcoin uniquely scarce, with prices largely determined by real buyers and sellers exchanging coins in the spot market. However, over time, Rover asserts that a “parallel financial layer” developed on top of the blockchain itself. This financial layer includes cash‑settled futures, perpetual swaps, options contracts, prime brokerage lending, wrapped Bitcoin products such as WBTC, and total return swaps. None of these instruments create new Bitcoin on the blockchain, but they do create synthetic exposure to Bitcoin’s price. According to Rover, this synthetic exposure now plays a central role in determining how Bitcoin trades. As derivatives trading volumes grew and eventually surpassed spot market activity, Rover argues that Bitcoin’s price stopped responding mainly to on‑chain coin movement. Instead, prices increasingly reflect leverage, trader positioning, margin stress, and liquidation dynamics. In practical terms, this means Bitcoin can move sharply even when there is little actual buying or selling of real coins. Why Bitcoin Moves Without Spot Selling Rover also highlights the concept of synthetic supply, explaining that a single Bitcoin can now be used simultaneously across multiple financial products. One coin may back an exchange-traded fund (ETF) share while also supporting a futures contract, a perpetual swap hedge, options exposure, a broker loan, or a structured investment product. While this does not increase Bitcoin’s actual supply, it dramatically increases the amount of tradable exposure linked to that same coin. When this synthetic exposure grows large compared with the real supply of Bitcoin, the market’s perception of scarcity weakens. This phenomenon, often described as synthetic float expansion, changes how prices behave. Rallies are more easily shorted using derivatives, leverage builds rapidly, liquidations become more frequent, and volatility increases. According to Rover, this structural shift makes price movements feel disconnected from on‑chain fundamentals. Yet, the analyst notes that the leading cryptocurrency is not unique in this regard. Related Reading: Why The Market Cap Argument For XRP Price Not Reaching $10,000 Is ‘Flawed’ Similar transitions occurred in markets such as gold, silver, oil, and major equity indices. In each case, once derivatives markets overtook physical trading, price discovery moved away from supply alone and became increasingly influenced by financial positioning. This framework also helps explain why Bitcoin sometimes declines even in the absence of heavy spot selling. Price pressure can come from forced liquidations of leveraged long positions, aggressive futures shorting, options hedging activity, or ETF arbitrage trades. Importantly, Rover emphasizes that Bitcoin’s hard cap has not changed at the protocol level. The 21 million limit remains intact on the blockchain. What has changed, he argues, is the financial structure surrounding Bitcoin. He concluded his analysis by asserting that in today’s markets, “paper Bitcoin” has become more influential than physical ownership, and that dominance is playing a key role in the market’s recent instability. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF posted inflows on Friday following a turbulent week for Bitcoin, marking only its 11th day of net inflows in 2026.
Erebor Bank, a crypto‑friendly financial startup backed by tech investors including Palmer Luckey and Joe Lonsdale, has become the first new national bank chartered in the US during President Trump’s second term, the Wall Street Journal reported. The Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) approved the charter less than eight months after application, …
Bitcoin and other major cryptocurrencies are showing signs of short-term recovery after a recent sharp drop, with prices bouncing off key support levels. Analysts say this rebound may indicate the worst of the recent sell-off is over, at least for now. Bitcoin found support at $60,000, which is now acting as a short-term floor. Ethereum, …
The White House is preparing for another important meeting on February 10 to discuss stablecoin rules with banks and crypto companies. The talks are part of ongoing efforts to shape clear regulations for the U.S. crypto market. The main issue remains whether stablecoin issuers should be allowed to offer yield or interest to users. Why …
The firm’s looped ETH long position unraveled this week as ether's price crashed, resulting in an estimated $686 million loss.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes said the recent Bitcoin selloff was likely driven by dealer hedging linked to iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) structured products. These hedging activities, where market participants adjust positions based on price movements, can amplify volatility. Hayes is also compiling a detailed list of bank-issued notes and related products to identify potential trigger …
The crypto markets experienced some relief as the selling pressure eased over the major cryptos. The market capitalisation recovered above $2.4 trillion, while the volume dropped close to $200 billion from the highs around $306 billion during the sell-off. The crypto ETF also turned positive after 2 to 3 days of continuous outflow. The market …
Bitcoin has experienced one of its sharpest corrections in recent years, slipping below the $65,000 level and reaching its lowest price since October 2024. The decline reflects persistent selling pressure across the crypto market, accompanied by deteriorating macro sentiment, reduced liquidity, and cautious positioning among institutional participants. Recent price action suggests the market is entering a critical phase where confidence, rather than technical levels alone, may determine the next directional move. Related Reading: Bitcoin Short-Term Holders Deep In Loss: MVRV Signals Capitulation Phase Amid this uncertainty, the Binance SAFU Fund disclosed the purchase of an additional 3,600 BTC, valued at roughly $233.37 million. While such acquisitions do not guarantee a market reversal, they indicate continued strategic accumulation by major industry players even during periods of elevated volatility. Market sentiment has deteriorated markedly. Several sentiment indicators now sit near levels last observed during the 2022 bear market, when risk appetite contracted sharply and investors adopted defensive positioning. This environment typically coincides with reduced speculative activity, heightened caution among retail traders, and increased scrutiny from institutional capital. Institutional Accumulation Emerges Amid Prolonged Capitulation Phase Arkham data indicates that the Binance SAFU fund has continued accumulating Bitcoin, bringing its total recent purchases to approximately 6,230 BTC, valued near $434.5 million. While such activity signals ongoing participation from large institutional entities, it does not necessarily imply an imminent price recovery. Historically, significant purchases during corrective phases often occur alongside broader market stress rather than marking an immediate turning point. Current market conditions increasingly resemble a classic capitulation phase. Capitulation typically emerges when sustained price declines force weaker holders to exit positions, often at losses, leading to elevated exchange inflows, compressed liquidity, and sharp sentiment deterioration. These episodes can persist longer than many participants anticipate, particularly when macroeconomic uncertainty, risk-off positioning, and tightening liquidity conditions coincide. Importantly, capitulation does not follow a fixed timeline. In prior cycles, similar phases unfolded over weeks or even months before a durable bottom formed. During these periods, volatility tends to remain elevated, failed rallies are common, and confidence rebuilds gradually rather than abruptly. The key variables to monitor include exchange flows, derivatives leverage, spot demand recovery, and broader macro signals. Until those metrics stabilize, the base case remains continued market fragility. Large-scale accumulation by institutional funds may provide structural support, but it rarely prevents extended consolidation or further downside during capitulation environments. Related Reading: Ethereum Coinbase Premium Drops To 2022 Bear-Market Levels: Capitulation Or Further Downside? Weekly Structure Shows Breakdown Below Key Support Bitcoin’s weekly chart shows a clear deterioration in market structure after losing the $70K region, a level that had previously acted as both psychological and technical support. The latest candle reflects strong downside momentum, with price briefly touching the $60K zone before stabilizing near $65.9K. This move confirms a breakdown from the prior consolidation range and shifts focus toward whether this decline represents a deeper bear phase or a late-cycle correction. From a trend perspective, Bitcoin is now trading below the 50-week moving average while approaching the 100-week average. Historically, a critical dynamic support during corrective phases. The 200-week average remains far below, indicating the long-term macro trend has not fully reversed, although intermediate momentum has clearly weakened. Related Reading: Are We Near A Bitcoin Bear Market Bottom? History Offers A Framework Volume dynamics also matter here. The recent selloff shows rising participation compared with earlier consolidation periods, suggesting distribution rather than simple profit-taking. However, sustained high volume without further price acceleration downward could signal seller exhaustion. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the $70K area, downside risk toward the $60K–$55K zone remains plausible. Conversely, stabilization above current levels would indicate absorption, a necessary precursor for any meaningful recovery. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
The crypto market showed early signs of recovery today after a sharp sell-off, with Bitcoin climbing back above the $71,000 level. The rebound followed a wave of panic selling that pushed market sentiment to an extreme level of fear, leaving investors unsure whether this move marks a real recovery or just a short-term bounce before …
Erebor doubled its valuation to $4 billion after a $350 million Lux Capital-led funding round late last year.
Ripple’s native token XRP is shifting from a trading-focused crypto asset into a key settlement layer for institutional finance. A new strategic update around XRP Ledger (XRPL) shows a strong push toward regulated decentralized finance, positioning XRP at the core of payments, liquidity transfers, and on-chain credit activity. Meanwhile, XRP is trading near $1.46, gaining …
Bitcoin jumped back to around $70,600 on February 7 after falling near $60,000, reversing a recent 14% drop from early February highs. At the same time, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to extreme fear, with a reading between 6 and 10, the lowest since 2022, highlighting deep investor anxiety over volatility, trading volume, …
Crypto asset manager 21Shares has filed a Form S-1 registration statement with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission to launch a spot ETF based on ONDO, the native token of Ondo Finance. The proposed 21Shares Ondo Trust would directly hold ONDO tokens and track their performance using the CME CF Ondo Finance-Dollar Reference Rate, with …
Bitcoin’s roughly 50% drawdown has less to do with cycle déjà vu than a deeper break in the market’s old playbook, according to Jeff Park, partner and CIO at ProCap Financial, who argues a prospective Kevin Warsh-led Federal Reserve could catalyze a regime shift in how Bitcoin trades. In an conversation with Anthony Pompliano, Park said he believes Bitcoin has been in a bear market “for quite a bit,” and warned that the familiar reflexive framework, easier policy, more liquidity, higher BTC, has stopped doing the explanatory work it once did. What Kevin Warsh Means For Bitcoin Park’s starting point was a blunt claim: the assumed linkage between Bitcoin and global liquidity has “been broken for quite some time.” He pointed to what he described as steadily rising global liquidity through 2025, citing Michael Howell’s tracking and estimating the level at roughly $170 trillion, alongside broad-based strength in other asset classes. “Asset prices have all gone up,” Park said, referencing a “frenzied rally” in metals and corporate credit spreads near all-time lows, before adding: “there actually is a lot of reasons to think that Bitcoin should have also already participated, but it didn’t.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash On Feb. 5 Was Historic: The Numbers Behind The Selloff That divergence, he argued, is why investors should stop leaning on backward-looking heuristics that have become psychological crutches. In his telling, crypto markets have repeatedly assumed history would re-run—altcoin rallies after bitcoin rallies, a durable four-year cycle, and the idea that QE or lower rates reliably lift BTC. “It’s worth remembering that there’s things that are constantly changing about the world where everything looks a little bit different than the way you had modeled it before,” he said. From there, Park reframed the debate around his “negative rho” versus “positive rho” Bitcoin framework. The former is the risk-asset version most investors recognize: rates down, risk up, Bitcoin up. The latter is the endgame: Bitcoin rising as rates rise, effectively challenging the notion of a stable “risk-free” rate by calling into question the credibility of the monetary order itself. “This is the mythical elusive perfect holy grail of what Bitcoin is meant to be,” Park said of positive-rho Bitcoin. “What it’s undermining is the risk-free rate itself. In that world, what we’re saying is actually because the risk-free rate is not the risk-free rate. Because the dollar hegemony is not the dollar hegemony and we are no longer able to price the yield curve in the ways we’ve known that means we need something different… and bitcoin is that hedge.” Park suggested the market may be inching toward that worldview as US policymaking becomes more explicitly about system repair, not incremental tweaks. He described the current US administration as attempting to “wrestle control of the economy away from the Federal Reserve” via deregulation, tax cuts, tariffs, and efforts to weaken the dollar, leaving the Fed “on their back foot” amid shifting “tectonic plates” across policy channels. Absolutely enjoyed recording this, even though we of course wish prices were higher. For those who have been listening to our show (monthly going forward), the fact that we are in a bear market won’t come as a big surprise. Still, Bitcoin can survive all this! Listen below ???? https://t.co/JSrKOw5QLY — Jeff Park (@dgt10011) February 5, 2026 That’s where Park placed Warsh, a former Fed governor and, in Park’s telling, a rare combination of institutional fluency and technological conviction, as potentially pivotal. Park recounted an interaction from 2021 or 2022 in which Warsh expressed enthusiasm for Bitcoin while criticizing “phonies” who treat tech as “magic.” Warsh, Park said, “truly believed deep in his heart that this isn’t magic… that it actually is going to solve a lot of problems and bring efficiencies and Bitcoin is a core part of that cultural fabric.” Related Reading: PlanB Lays Out Four Bitcoin Bear-Market Scenarios Crucially, Park emphasized Warsh is not an anti-institution wrecking ball. Instead, he portrayed Warsh as someone who understands why the Fed’s legitimacy has been challenged and how it might be rebuilt. One line, Park said, has “always stuck” with him: “inflation is a choice.” Park contrasted that with Fed communication that, in his view, sometimes treats inflation as something that merely happens due to tariffs or war, rather than an outcome of policy tools and mandates. For Park, a Warsh appointment matters less because it guarantees easier policy and more because it could accelerate a rethink of Fed–Treasury coordination. He said he is “optimistic about the possibility of a new Fed Treasury accord that Bessant and Warsh can rewrite,” arguing the heart of the issue is the Triffin dilemma and the tension between the dollar’s external reserve role and internal saver role. “It’s not that we need fed independence,” Park said. “We actually need Fed interdependence with the Treasury.” The irony, in Park’s framing, is that “more accommodative policies may in fact actually not be the catalyst” for Bitcoin’s next bull phase. Instead, he argued Bitcoin’s bid ultimately strengthens when the world feels less like “peacetime” and more like “wartime”, when industrial, military, and fiscal policy dominate, centralization pressures rise, and capital controls become more plausible. The people who “need Bitcoin,” he said, are not US investors with endless alternatives, but those facing constraint and censorship. If Park is right, Warsh isn’t bullish for Bitcoin because he’ll deliver a familiar liquidity wave. He’s bullish because a Warsh-era Fed, paired with a Treasury aligned on system-level reform, could push markets toward the “positive rho” regime, where Bitcoin’s value proposition is less about riding stimulus and more about challenging the architecture that made stimulus necessary in the first place. At press time, BTC traded at $66,396. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The surge in Google search activity for "Bitcoin" led Bitwise’s head of Europe, André Dragosch, to claim that “retail is coming back.”
Strategy’s leadership is pushing back against growing concerns that the world’s largest corporate holder of Bitcoin (BTC) could face serious financial stress as the cryptocurrency’s price continues to slide. Speaking after the company released its fourth‑quarter results, CEO Phong Le sought to reassure investors that the firm remains well-positioned, even as Bitcoin fell close to $60,000 on Thursday. Bitcoin Sell‑Off Tests Strategy’s Financial Resilience Bitcoin dropped roughly 50% since reaching all‑time highs of $126,000 in October of last year, a period during which Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, was aggressively accumulating the digital asset. The sell‑off has weighed heavily on the company’s share price. Strategy’s stock, trading under the ticker MSTR, sank to about $104 on Thursday, its lowest level since August 2024, after plunging more than 17% during the session. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crash Exposes Colossal Corporate Losses — Here’s Who’s Most Impacted For now, investors are focused on two key factors: the price of Bitcoin itself and Strategy’s ability to meet its financial obligations if the downturn deepens. Those questions loomed large as founder Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le addressed analysts during the firm’s earnings call. Much of the attention centered on how Strategy would navigate a prolonged “Bitcoin winter,” should one materialize. Saylor has already taken steps to bolster the company’s financial flexibility, including raising a $2.25 billion cash reserve to cover preferred dividend payments totaling $888 million annually. However, investors remain uneasy about the company’s $8.2 billion in low‑ and zero‑interest convertible bonds, which could begin facing early redemptions starting in September 2027, particularly now that MSTR shares have fallen sharply. Politics, Leverage, And Valuation In Focus Saylor reiterated that the company is keeping its options open, including the possibility of selling Bitcoin if market conditions require it. He also framed crypto investing as inseparable from politics, pointing to President Donald Trump’s pro‑crypto stance and noting that Trump’s nominee for Federal Reserve (Fed) chair, Kevin Warsh, is viewed as supportive of digital assets. Still, Bitcoin fell through its post‑2024 election lows on Thursday, reflecting skepticism that the federal government will actively support Bitcoin purchases. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reinforced those doubts this week, telling Congress he lacks the authority to rescue Bitcoin markets. On the balance‑sheet front, CEO Phong Le addressed worries about Strategy’s leverage. He said the company operates with roughly one‑third the leverage of a typical high‑yield firm. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crashes Below $67,000 As Stifel Warns Of Potential Drop To $38,000 According to Le, Bitcoin would need to decline by about 90% for Strategy’s Bitcoin reserves to merely equal the value of its convertible debt. Even in that extreme scenario, he said, the company would explore restructuring options if it could not convert the debt into equity. Strategy’s own disclosures show an enterprise value of about $49.95 billion, compared with roughly $45.33 billion worth of Bitcoin on its balance sheet. Enterprise value includes the company’s market capitalization, preferred shares, and convertible bonds, minus cash. If Bitcoin drops once again near $63,000, Strategy’s market cap of $35.57 billion would need to fall about 13% from its recent closing price of $106.99 to eliminate the valuation premium over its Bitcoin holdings. However, since Thursday’s crash, both Bitcoin and Strategy’s stock have made a significant recovery. Bitcoin, for example, has surged to around $69,256. MSTR has recovered above $130, marking a 20% increase in less than 24 hours and offering short-term relief. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com