Crypto markets weaken amid rising Japan inflation, Iran war oil disruptions, and expectations of a hawkish Bank of Japan.
Bitcoin’s advance over the past four weeks is colliding with a derivatives market that still looks positioned for weakness. Analysts tracking Binance funding and futures basis say traders continue to lean short even as BTC moves higher, creating what CryptoQuant contributor Darkfost described via X as a “phase of disbelief” rather than a clean bullish reset. That divergence matters because it suggests the rally is unfolding against persistent skepticism, not broad conviction. In crypto, that kind of setup can cut both ways: it can signal fragile market structure, but it can also provide fuel if bearish positioning is forced to unwind. Darkfost pointed to the 30-day cumulative evolution of Binance funding rates as the clearest sign that the market remains out of sync with price. “We’ve been hearing a lot about funding rates lately, as they remain negative even while Bitcoin continues to move higher,” he wrote. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Cycle Is Right On Schedule: Analyst Reveals When The Bull Run Will Begin “This chart offers a different perspective from what is usually observed. It shows the 30 day cumulative evolution of funding rates on Binance, making it easier to clearly identify when funding entered a sustained negative trend.” His comparison was to late 2022, when Bitcoin was beginning to emerge from the bear market. At that point, Binance funding rates kept falling and reached as low as -7% on a 30-day cumulative basis. Today, the same indicator sits around -4.5%, which, in his view, shows how aggressively traders have continued betting against the move in recent months. Darkfost’s argument is not simply that funding is negative, but that the persistence of that negativity reflects a market still trying to fade price strength. “Each time such a strong consensus has formed, it has instead helped create a bottom and fueled the rally that was beginning to develop,” he said. “As I mentioned several days ago, the market has entered a phase of disbelief, where traders still prefer fighting the trend rather than following it.” Bitcoin Derivatives Market In A Regime Of Caution On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr. approached the same backdrop from a more defensive angle. In his April 23 market note, he argued that Bitcoin’s derivatives structure is “rapidly losing its bullish structure” as the short-term futures premium over spot nearly disappears. The 7-day basis SMA dropped from +0.465% to +0.054% in just four days, while the funding rate 7DMA remained negative at -0.00945%. For Adler, the message is straightforward: the market is no longer willing to pay up for long leverage. “Basis 7D SMA has sharply compressed and is almost at zero, showing that the futures premium over spot has nearly vanished,” he wrote. “This is not just a local cooldown – it is nearly a complete disappearance of the futures premium over spot. Meanwhile, the 30D SMA remains noticeably higher, around +0.41%, meaning the short-term derivatives structure has deteriorated much faster than the medium-term norm.” Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Rebuild As Futures Metric Hits 4-Month High He made a similar point on funding. “What matters is not just the negative reading itself, but its persistence,” Adler said. “This is not a one-off spike or a panic anomaly within a single hour. This is a steady accumulation of bearish positioning, where the market continues to pay for short exposure.” Taken together, the two analysts are reading the same data through slightly different lenses. Darkfost sees disbelief as a potentially constructive condition for the ongoing rally, especially if consensus remains heavily skewed against price. Adler sees a market that has lost its bullish premium and is shifting into a more cautious regime unless basis and funding recover. At press time, BTC traded at $77,836. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The seizure highlights geopolitical tensions, potentially impacting global markets and influencing investor sentiment and risk assessments.
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Morgan Stanley's fund enhances stablecoin stability by mitigating depegging risks, potentially influencing broader financial market confidence.
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Mantle, EtherFi Foundation, Golem Foundation, Lido DAO, Ethena, LayerZero, Ink Foundation and Tyrdo have all made pledges to the “DeFi United” recovery effort.
The ongoing standoff in the Strait of Hormuz suggests prolonged geopolitical tension, impacting oil supply stability and market dynamics.
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The state's complaint highlights language used by prediction market platforms as language for gambling, not investing.
Sustained Bitcoin ETF inflows suggest growing institutional interest, but broader market uncertainties may temper expectations for rapid gains.
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The ceasefire extension offers temporary relief but fails to resolve deeper regional tensions, leaving future stability uncertain.
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The exploit undermines trust in Ethereum's DeFi, potentially affecting market stability and investor confidence in decentralized finance.
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The surge in AI stock market cap highlights the growing influence of AI technologies on financial markets and investor strategies.
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The resilience of Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana highlights their potential as stable alternatives amid geopolitical risks affecting stablecoins.
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The planned talks could reshape regional diplomacy, but any setbacks might lead to significant market volatility and geopolitical tension.
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Iran's potential leadership change could impact regional stability and influence global geopolitical dynamics, affecting market predictions.
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The presence of US carrier strike groups near Iran heightens geopolitical tensions, yet markets remain skeptical of imminent regime change.
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Toncoin is about to undergo a big shift in its cost structure. According to Pavel Durov, transaction fees on the network will drop 6x within a week, bringing costs down to just 0.00039 TON (~$0.0005) per transaction, fixed, regardless of network load. This isn’t just a fee cut. It’s part of a broader push under …
The firing disrupts naval command continuity, heightening uncertainty and complicating efforts to resolve tensions with Iran.
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The ceasefire's end signals stalled diplomacy, reducing confidence in near-term peace, while markets remain volatile amid low trading volumes.
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Ternus's leadership may reinforce Apple's hardware focus, influencing market expectations and strategic shifts in tech innovation.
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The dominance of AI firms in the S&P 500 highlights the sector's growing influence on market dynamics and potential regulatory scrutiny.
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XRP price started a recovery wave above $1.420 and $1.4250. The price is now consolidating and might aim for a fresh move if it clears $1.4450. XRP price started a recovery wave above the $1.4220 zone. The price is now trading above $1.4250 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. There is a rising channel forming with support at $1.430 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair (data source from Kraken). The pair could continue to move up if it settles above $1.4450. XRP Price Holds Support XRP price remained supported above $1.410 and started a recovery wave, like Bitcoin and Ethereum. The price was able to climb above $1.4150 and $1.420 to enter a short-term positive zone. There was also a move above the 50% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1.4625 swing high to the $1.410 swing low. However, the bears are now active near the $1.4450 zone. Besides, there is a rising channel forming with support at $1.430 on the hourly chart of the XRP/USD pair. The price is now trading above $1.430 and the 100-hourly Simple Moving Average. If there is a fresh upward move, the price might face resistance near the $1.4450 level or the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the downward move from the $1.4625 swing high to the $1.410 swing low. The first major resistance is near the $1.4620 level. A close above $1.4620 could send the price to $1.480. The next hurdle sits at $1.50. A clear move above the $1.50 resistance might send the price toward the $1.5180 resistance. Any more gains might send the price toward the $1.5320 resistance. Another Drop? If XRP fails to clear the $1.4450 resistance zone, it could start a fresh decline. Initial support on the downside is near the $1.430 level. The next major support is near the $1.420 level. If there is a downside break and a close below the $1.420 level, the price might continue to decline toward $1.40. The next major support sits near the $1.3750 zone, below which the price could continue lower toward $1.3550. Technical Indicators Hourly MACD – The MACD for XRP/USD is now losing pace in the bullish zone. Hourly RSI (Relative Strength Index) – The RSI for XRP/USD is now below the 50 level. Major Support Levels – $1.420 and $1.40. Major Resistance Levels – $1.4450 and $1.4620.
The Iran conflict's potential to disrupt global oil supply underscores its broader economic impact beyond current market skepticism.
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DeepSeek's AI model disrupts market dynamics, intensifying competition and uncertainty in AI rankings amid geopolitical tech tensions.
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The U.S. diplomatic shift towards Sudan could alter regional alliances, impacting global oil markets amid heightened Iran tensions.
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A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how Dogecoin has seen its last five breakout attempts rejected by the middle line of a Parallel Channel pattern. Dogecoin May Have Been Following A Parallel Channel Recently In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about a Parallel Channel forming in the 4-hour price of Dogecoin. The “Parallel Channel” refers to a class of patterns from technical analysis (TA) that emerge whenever an asset observes consolidation between two parallel trendlines. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Catches Shorts Offside—$200M Liquidated As Price Hits $79,000 The upper line of the channel is likely to be a source of resistance for the price, while the lower one that of support. A break out of either of these bounds can signal a continuation of trend in that direction. Depending on how the trendlines are oriented with respect to the graph axes, Parallel Channels can be sorted into a few different types. When the trendlines are pointing up, the pattern is known as an Ascending Channel. Similarly, a channel with a negative slope is called a Descending Channel. These two channels correspond to a phase of consolidation to a net upside and downside, respectively. In the context of the current topic, the Parallel Channel of interest falls into a third type: one where the trendlines are parallel to the time-axis. This type of channel naturally represents a phase of completely sideways movement in the asset. Now, here is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the Parallel Channel that the 4-hour price of Dogecoin has potentially been trading inside over the last couple of months: As displayed in the above graph, Dogecoin has recently been stuck in the lower half of this Parallel Channel. The memecoin has made five retests of the midway line, but all of these attempts have ended up in rejection. This level is located at $0.1018. DOGE’s most recent retest of the line took place just last week. Since this latest rejection, the cryptocurrency has retraced to the quarter mark of the channel. It now remains to be seen whether the coin will see another run to the resistance line or if it will retest the support level at $0.0884 instead next. Related Reading: Bitcoin Hits $78,000—All Eyes On $80,700 Cost Basis? In some other news, Dogecoin witnessed a high amount of transaction volume last week, as the analyst has highlighted in another X post. From the chart, it’s visible that the Dogecoin network saw almost $800 million in transfer volume on April 16th alone. Thus, it would appear that activity related to the memecoin was elevated last week. DOGE Price Dogecoin has dropped back to the $0.0966 mark following its pullback. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Metaplanet's move underscores corporate confidence in Bitcoin's future, potentially influencing market dynamics and investor strategies.
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Senator Cotton's warning heightens geopolitical tensions, reducing diplomatic avenues and increasing market volatility and uncertainty.
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The lack of UK naval response suggests a preference for diplomatic solutions, potentially affecting regional power dynamics and future maritime security strategies.
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The merger creates a media giant, potentially reshaping industry dynamics and intensifying competition in the global entertainment market.
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The selective rollout of GPT-5.5 with enhanced safeguards may set a precedent for future AI releases, emphasizing security and controlled access.
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