Iran's island fortifications heighten regional tensions, reducing ceasefire prospects and increasing the likelihood of US military action.
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Graham's diplomatic shift may enhance negotiation prospects, yet skepticism and market caution highlight the need for tangible progress.
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Market skepticism persists amid geopolitical tensions, with traders wary of prolonged instability affecting economic forecasts.
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A cluster of roughly 650,000 Bitcoin sits at the $70,000–$72,000 price range — coins bought by investors who are now waiting to break even. That supply overhang is the wall Bitcoin must climb if its March recovery is going to mean anything. Related Reading: Ripple’s RLUSD Stablecoin Sits On $1.57 Billion In Reserves: Audit Firm A Streak That Hasn’t Been Seen Since 2018 Bitcoin closed March up 2%, snapping five consecutive months of losses. It was the longest such run of red monthly candles since 2018, and data from CoinGlass confirms the streak is over. The final close puts Bitcoin at roughly $68,250 as April opens, with traders watching closely to see whether the momentum holds or fades. The last time Bitcoin strung together six straight losing months was in 2018 going into early 2019. What followed was a sharp turnaround — Bitcoin went on to post gains exceeding 300% over the next five months. THIS IS A MASSIVE DOSE OF HOPIUM. Bitcoin just printed its first green monthly candle after 5 consecutive red months. Let’s hope this is not an April Fool’s joke. pic.twitter.com/dUAw1Yb4aX — Ash Crypto (@AshCrypto) April 1, 2026 Some analysts are pointing to that episode as a rough blueprint for what could come next. Analyst Ash Crypto called the March close “a massive dose of hopium” on X, pointing to the possible shift in momentum as a sign that a sustained recovery could be underway. Trader Satoshi Flipper noted on X that the last time Bitcoin fell for six months straight, it climbed for the following five. That kind of historical comparison draws attention, though it rests on a single prior example. Last time BTC dumped 6 months in a row, it pumped the following 5 months in a row that came after! What are our next 5 months going to look like after BTC just finished dumping 5 months in a row? pic.twitter.com/DviQHfNell — Satoshi Flipper (@SatoshiFlipper) April 1, 2026 The $70,000 Zone Is The Real Test The $70,000–$72,000 range isn’t just a round number. It’s where the 50-day simple moving average, the 50-day exponential moving average, and the cost basis of a large block of investors all converge. Data from Glassnode shows that approximately 650,000 BTC were acquired in that price range — meaning a significant number of holders are underwater and likely to sell once they recover their losses. Breaking through that zone could open the door to $76,000, and potentially $80,000 after that. Trader Sheldon Diedericks said on X that Bitcoin could push up toward $83,000 on the monthly chart — a level that acted as support back in April 2025 and sits close to the 200-day exponential moving average. If the rally stalls, the floor levels matter just as much. The 200-week exponential moving average sits around $68,300 — just below where Bitcoin is currently trading. Below that, $59,400 marks the 200-week simple moving average, and around $54,000 sits Bitcoin’s realized price, a level watched closely as a potential bear market floor. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Pull In $56B As CEO Pitches Crypto Over Gold April Has A Mixed Track Record Here’s the complication: April doesn’t always follow March’s lead. Based on data going back to 2013, Bitcoin has closed April in the green eight out of 13 years, with average returns around 12%. But nine out of those same 13 years, April moved in the opposite direction from March. More recently, Bitcoin dropped in April after a green March close in three of the four years between 2021 and 2024. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
Trump's decision against deploying ground troops in Iran may foster diplomatic efforts, slightly increasing ceasefire prospects by April 30.
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Trump's proposal risks escalating tensions, impacting market dynamics and reducing near-term ceasefire prospects with Iran.
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As quantum computing continues to evolve, questions about its potential impact on Bitcoin are gaining renewed attention. At the center of the debate is whether the world’s largest cryptocurrency could one day be vulnerable to the immense processing power of quantum machines. While the technology is still in its early stages, the discussion around long-term security is becoming increasingly relevant. Amid the frenzy, crypto analyst Luke Martin has shared the only public comment Satoshi Nakamoto made about the quantum computing risk on Bitcoin. Martin revealed on X that in 2010, a user named llama raised concerns about what would happen if BTC cryptographic signatures were broken by quantum technology, and whether that could render BTC worthless. What Satoshi Nakamoto Actually Said About Quantum Risk Satoshi’s response acknowledged that a sudden breakthrough could pose a serious threat, and a gradual advancement in quantum computing would give the network time to adapt and transition to stronger cryptographic methods. He further explained that users could upgrade their software, and upon doing so, their holdings would be re-signed using a more secure algorithm. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bombshell: Google’s 2029 Quantum Warning Sparks New Fear The current narratives surrounding quantum computing as an imminent threat to Bitcoin are being overstated. An analyst known as pika2zero on X argued that the technology is still far from the level required to meaningfully challenge BTC’s cryptography, despite recent claims suggesting otherwise. Pika2zero pointed out that the current most advanced quantum systems operate at around 6,000 qubits and can only be maintained for 13 seconds. In his view, this is nowhere near the scale needed to break modern encryption, which requires 500,000 stable qubits in 9 minutes, especially as the technology is getting exponentially harder. Even minor disturbances are capable of collapsing the entire computation. However, he further questions the assumptions behind the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle, suggesting that the real requirements for breaking modern cryptography could be millions of qubits, rather than the commonly cited estimates. Building and operating such a machine to attack BTC would require massive resources, potentially only accessible to major technology firms like Google, IBM, or other Bigtech, and would demand enormous energy and infrastructure. From pika2zero’s perspective, an individual hackster can not have a $10 billion supercomputer the size of a building and the energy demand of a small city in his basement to attack BTC. Will Bitcoin Adopt Stronger Quantum Defenses In Time? Senior analyst at CoinDesk and advisor at Coinsilium Group, James Van Straten, has also offered insight into BIP 360 as a short-term solution for quantum resistance. However, it will not address the full scope of the problem. Van Straten argues that using quantum computing to access Patoshi’s coins is estimated at around 1 million BTC and could be considered a fair game. Related Reading: Bitcoin Demand Heats Up: Coinbase Premium Green For 25 Straight Days At the same time, he points to alternative approaches such as Hourglass V2. James noted that the market had previously demonstrated its ability to absorb significant selling pressure and handle close to 1 million BTC over 30 days in December without systemic disruption. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Trump's announcement could shift geopolitical dynamics, impacting market confidence and potentially altering US-Iran relations significantly.
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Pakistan's mediation role could shift regional dynamics, influencing diplomatic strategies and market perceptions amid US-Iran tensions.
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Increased tensions and market volatility highlight geopolitical risks, impacting global stability and economic forecasts.
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Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz heightens geopolitical risks, impacting global energy markets and complicating diplomatic efforts.
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The delay in US action suggests a preference for diplomacy, impacting market expectations and highlighting geopolitical uncertainties.
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The declining odds of a US-Iran ceasefire highlight the challenges of achieving diplomatic progress amid heightened tensions.
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An IPO and valuation above $1.75 trillion would make SpaceX a top-10 public company by market capitalization, above the likes of Meta and Tesla.
Ethereum is currently trading above $2,100 at the start of the new month, but one analyst believes the asset’s next major directional move is based on a single price level: one that, if broken, would invalidate years of macro analysis and cause a price collapse to as low as $900. The Count That Has Held For A Year According to an analyst known as The Penguin, Ethereum’s current price behavior fits into a broader Elliott Wave structure that has been developing for years. The analysis defines Ethereum’s entire price history since 2016 as a developing macro sequence: a completed Cycle Wave 1 that topped out, followed by an extended Wave 2 correction playing out as a flat. According to the analyst, this structure is time-consuming, choppy, and designed to frustrate. Related Reading: Analyst Shares A Good Way To Know When Ethereum Has Hit A Bottom Since Ethereum’s 2021 peak, the Ethereum price has largely moved sideways and downward while repeatedly teasing recoveries that faded. The most notable example of this recovery was in August 2025, when Ethereum moved to new all-time highs. However, this has eventually ended up with a reversal that saw Ethereum fall back below $2,000 again. The chart labels the flat trading sequence in detail, mapping out W, X, A, and B legs that form the larger Wave 2 structure. The current price action is positioned within the final leg of the B structure, and the next outlook is an upward move to C from here. The $1,382 Line That Changes Everything As shown in the chart above, the Ethereum price has spent the period since its 2021 peak trading beneath a well-defined horizontal resistance zone between $4,500 and $4,900, with multiple rallies failing to break through this ceiling. The lows, on the other hand, have been less uniform, with lows forming in a more irregular pattern instead of a clean horizontal base. Related Reading: Brace For Impact: Ethereum Price Is Now Forming A Counter-Trend Correction However, one level stands out in this structure, which is the $1,382 low recorded in April 2025. Based on the context of this analysis, this point is labelled as Wave X and serves as the lower timeframe invalidation level. This is the important price level that will determine whether the price structure continues to fall below the four-digit mark. As long as Ethereum remains above it, the Wave 2 scenario will be valid, and the Ethereum price can still transition into a new impulsive cycle to the upside. The price target in this case is a push to as high as $8,400. A breakdown below $1,382, however, would invalidate the entire wave count. ETH would need to shed about a third of its value to reach that level, but given Q1 2026’s 29% decline and February 6 low at $1,743, it is not out of reach under persistent selling pressure. If that invalidation level fails, the analyst’s projection points to a downside break below $900, with Fibonacci extensions on the chart pointing to lows between $800 and $500. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
The strike exacerbates geopolitical tensions, diminishing prospects for diplomatic resolutions and prolonging regional instability.
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On-chain data shows the average Bitcoin exchange deposit has ballooned to a significant size, a potential sign that whales are making inflows. Average Bitcoin Exchange Inflow Hits 2.62 BTC As pointed out by CryptoQuant community analyst Maartunn in an X post, the mean Exchange Inflow has shot up for Bitcoin. The “Exchange Inflow” here refers to an indicator that keeps track of the BTC transactions that are heading toward centralized exchanges from self-custodial wallets. Related Reading: Dogecoin Network Comes Alive: Active Addresses Jump 28% In the context of the current topic, the version of the metric that’s of interest is the one tracking mean exchange deposits. That is, this indicator measures the size of the average transfer that’s being sent to exchange-related wallets. When the value of the metric is high, it means the average exchange inflow is significant in scale. Such a trend can be a sign that large entities are actively participating in exchange deposit activity. On the other hand, the indicator being low can suggest that smaller hands are the ones responsible for the current exchange inflows. Now, here is the chart shared by Maartunn that shows the trend in the 7-day exponential moving average (EMA) of the mean Bitcoin Exchange Inflow over the past year: As displayed in the above graph, the 7-day EMA of the mean Bitcoin Exchange Inflow has just observed a rapid surge, indicating that whales have potentially ramped up their deposit activity. Generally, one of the main reasons why investors transfer their coins to exchanges is for selling-related purposes, so this spike in the mean Exchange Inflow may be a sign that the big-money hands are preparing to exit from the cryptocurrency. The latest high level of the indicator isn’t ordinarily seen, serving as a rare signal for the network. “The average BTC transaction sent to exchanges climbed to 2.62 BTC, a level that typically only appears during high-stress market moves,” explained the analyst. From the chart, it’s visible that the last time the Exchange Inflow saw a similar surge was alongside the price crash at the start of February. It now remains to be seen whether the latest spike in the indicator will have any effect on the Bitcoin price. Related Reading: Recent Bitcoin Rally Saw Retail Shift To Selling, Glassnode Reveals In some other news, very old Bitcoin hands have shown activity recently, as Maartunn has highlighted in another X post. From the chart, it’s visible that multiple large transactions involving tokens older than ten years have been spotted on the blockchain over the past couple of days. In total, these transactions have broken dormancy for about 600 BTC, worth about $41.2 million right now. BTC Price Bitcoin has made some recovery from its lows as its price has climbed back to $68,500. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Pezeshkian's call for understanding highlights the complexity of US-Iran relations, with skepticism hindering immediate diplomatic progress.
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The missile strike underscores heightened geopolitical tensions, impacting market perceptions of U.S.-Iran conflict escalation and regime stability.
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Increased A-10 presence near Iran may heighten regional tensions, impacting geopolitical stability and influencing global market dynamics.
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Tehran's ceasefire demand suggests potential diplomatic progress, impacting market confidence and reducing regime collapse odds, yet remains speculative.
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Trump's NATO withdrawal consideration could destabilize alliances, impacting global security dynamics and reducing diplomatic resolution chances.
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QCP Group released an article today weighining in the quantum risk for crypto, following the Google whitepaper from March 30 showing Bitcoin‑style elliptic‑curve cryptography can be broken with far fewer quantum resources than previously assumed. Related Reading: Google Says End For Bitcoin Is Near? Quantum Computers Could Attack Crypto This Soon A Bigger Threat Beyond Crypto The crypto-quantum panic continues raging on, with multiple important voices from crypto and technology, such as former Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ), responding to the report in different ways. QCP’s article, written by Rachel Lee, establishes the firm’s opinion in a simple sentence: the quantum threat is more of a persistent structural challenge than a short‑term market threat. At QCP, we view this as a long-term structural issue, not an immediate market risk. The distinction matters. What Lee means is the target of the threat is not crypto in isolation: it’s the entire public‑key infrastructure stack that also secures banking rails such as SWIFT, TLS/HTTPS, VPNs and wider financial plumbing. A breakthrough in quantum computing that compromises ECC would therefore have system-wide implications, not just for digital assets. This quantum-vulnerability happens because what quantum computers could actually break are public‑key signatures (ECDSA, Ed25519, RSA), not the proof‑of‑work consensus mechanism that make blockchain technology to be considered highly secure. “A Transition, Not a Trigger”, QCP Says Lee reminds us that “we remain a considerable distance” from the technological power that would be needed to break the cited ECDLP standard. As of today, the most advanced quantum systems we have are operating roughly 1,000x below the necessary threshold to even conduct such an attack. More importantly, QCP argues that even in the scenario where we have the computational power that would make any of this possible, digital assets would not be, by ay means, the primary target. TradFi and networks carrying confidential or mission‑critical information are way more tempting targets. The global banking system and sensitive communications infrastructure would present far more immediate and valuable attack surfaces. Paradoxically, this means crypto is better positioned to coordinate contentious upgrades than many siloed banking and government systems that depend on slow hardware refresh cycles and legacy HSMs. The system is already repricing this structurally. Both the crypto sector and traditional finance are already pouring resources into post‑quantum defenses and migration plans. Protocol communities are testing mitigation approaches, even as global security standards are still being refined. Efforts such as the Italian NIST’s post‑quantum standards and Google’s own 2029 internal quantum deadline are grounding the quantum-risk from a sci‑fi edge case into a realistic technological transition. Related Reading: Bitcoin Range Traps Traders At $65K — Are Long‑Term Holders Finally Surrendering? Immediate Market Implications According to QCP, quantum is now a background macro risk factor for crypto, not a near‑term catalyst. It’s more relevant to long‑duration value, L1 roadmaps, and wallet design than to next‑month price action. Quantum computing is a long-term issue the industry should monitor and prepare for, not a near-term reason to reassess digital assets. Protocols and projects that can credibly ship post‑quantum signatures, hardened key‑management and private mempools may attract a “quantum‑ready” premium over time, while assets with ossified governance or huge pools of exposed coins will trade with a structural discount. At the time of writing, BTC trades for the highs $68k on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview Cover image from Perplexity, BTCUSD chart from Tradingview
According to the company CFO, Bithumb was “strengthen[ing] accounting policies and internal controls” ahead of its IPO plans, already delayed from 2025.
The new leadership's stance suggests regime stability, reducing market expectations of imminent collapse despite geopolitical tensions.
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The Treasury published its notice of proposed rulemaking as the market capitalization of dollar-pegged stablecoins neared $300 billion.
A Hyperliquid DEX whale has placed an $80 million bet that Bitcoin will crash and oil will rally, but data show this trader has lost millions in the past.
Andrew McCormick, head of eToro U.S., said it was the first firm to receive a BitLicense in 2023 following the collapse of FTX.
Crypto organizations to have applied for the charter include Bridge, Ripple, Circle, BitGo, Fidelity Digital Assets, and Paxos.
The crypto exchange seeks a charter from the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency to separate custody from trading and expand services under a regulated banking framework.