Bitwise Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Matt Hougan has explained why the Bitcoin price has shown strength amid the US-Iran war, with the leading crypto rallying above $75,000. BTC is notably up over 12% since the war started, outperforming the stock market and gold. Why The Bitcoin Price Has Rallied Above $75,000 Despite U.S.-Iran War In his weekly Bitwise memo, Hougan stated that the Bitcoin price strength during the US-Iran war stems from the conflict itself. He explained that BTC has outperformed gold and the stock market because investors are betting on either of the crypto’s two major use cases or narratives. The first narrative is that Bitcoin will become “digital gold” and so will be able to compete with physical gold in the $38 trillion “store of value” market. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Must Hold This Level Or Price Could Crash To $65,000 Again He noted that this is BTC’s current use case, and this narrative may be why the Bitcoin price has rallied amid the US-Iran war as investors see it as a safe haven rather than a risk asset. The Bitwise CIO described this bet on BTC as digital gold as very attractive and predicted that the leading crypto could reach $1 million if it captures 17% of the store-of-value market. Meanwhile, Hougan stated that the second bet on BTC is the belief that it might act like a traditional currency, suggesting that this is another reason that it is outperforming during this ongoing conflict. He noted that this second bet is like an “out-of-the-money call option” where it pays off if BTC is used more widely for international settlement. The Bitwise CIO stated that for most of Bitcoin’s life, it seemed unlikely that it would become a global currency, as until a few years ago, the world relied exclusively on dollar-based financial rails. However, that is now changing. He alluded to Iran receiving BTC for toll payments at the Strait of Hormuz, which has boosted the crypto’s status as a currency and contributed to the Bitcoin price rally. World Monetary Order Is Flipping In BTC’s Favor The Bitwise CIO noted that the US-Iran war has made the world monetary order more volatile, but has also increased the probability that Bitcoin will become a global currency. As such, the war has made BTC a more valuable out-of-the-money call option, which is why the Bitcoin price has shown strength during this period. Related Reading: Analyst Who Successfully Shorted The Bitcoin Price Top Announces A Change In His Plan Hougan added that with Iran’s move to accept BTC payments, the world has taken a step closer to integrating an apolitical currency into the global financial ecosystem. Therefore, whenever conflicts like the US-Iran war occur, the incentive to invest in apolitical assets like BTC increases, which serves as a catalyst for a higher Bitcoin price. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $75,100, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Tether's intervention may bolster USDT's market position, potentially impacting USDC, while stabilizing confidence in Solana's ecosystem.
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Bitcoin has spent much of 2026 moving between recovery attempts and macro shocks, yet one part of the market has kept moving in a single direction. Large holders have been buying. On April 16, Bitfinex highlighted CryptoQuant data showing whales accumulated 270,000 BTC over the previous 30 days, the largest buying spree since 2013, while […]
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Traders say Bitcoin has room to rally higher, but the upside could be capped at BTC’s active supply cost basis near $78,000.
Netanyahu's diplomatic focus could reshape regional stability, impacting military strategies and market perceptions of conflict risk.
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Mast's comments may shift US-Iran conflict dynamics, influencing market perceptions and potential congressional actions toward de-escalation.
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Selig faced heat from lawmakers on how he plans to oversee prediction markets and whether it has the headcount to do it.
Growing Congressional impatience may pressure Trump to alter his stance on Iran, potentially reducing the likelihood of formal conflict escalation.
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China's condemnation may complicate diplomatic efforts, affecting market confidence in a swift resolution to the blockade issue.
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The narrow defeat highlights deep congressional divisions, potentially escalating US-Iran tensions and impacting Trump's diplomatic focus.
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The resolution of prediction markets highlights the growing influence of AI developments on financial speculation and market dynamics.
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Democratic lawmakers called out Michael Selig for unilaterally advancing policies at the regulator that's normally led by a bipartisan group of five commissioners.
The US's warning to Iran could escalate tensions, impacting regional stability and global economic markets if diplomacy fails.
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The skepticism and low odds highlight the complexities and challenges in achieving a lasting peace between the US and Iran.
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Despite ongoing conflict, markets predict diplomatic talks will proceed, highlighting a disconnect between military actions and diplomatic efforts.
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Morgan Stanley's Bitcoin ETF inflow highlights growing institutional interest, but geopolitical tensions may hinder short-term price momentum.
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Iran's increased exports through the Strait of Hormuz highlight its strategic leverage, impacting global shipping dynamics amid US tensions.
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Anthropic's new flagship model beat every benchmark we threw at it, eats tokens like a hungry teenager, and showed its reasoning out loud.
The resolution's passage highlights potential shifts in voter sentiment, impacting future elections and challenging party unity.
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The push for a US-Iran peace deal could stabilize regional tensions, impacting global markets and diplomatic relations significantly.
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Schwab will introduce direct trading in the two biggest cryptos through a dedicated account, its first move into spot trading as it expands its digital asset offerings.
Hezbollah's opposition highlights Lebanon's internal divisions, complicating diplomatic efforts and potentially delaying conflict resolution.
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The ceasefire could stabilize regional tensions, but its durability depends on enforcement and Hezbollah's compliance, impacting market dynamics.
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Netanyahu's decision indicates prolonged regional tension, impacting diplomatic efforts and market stability, with limited prospects for de-escalation.
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The narrow vote highlights deep divisions in Congress, potentially prolonging military engagement and impacting US-Iran relations.
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The blockade's prolonged impact could tighten global oil supply, potentially driving prices up and affecting international market stability.
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The talks could catalyze broader regional diplomacy, impacting markets and potentially leading to further Middle East peace initiatives.
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Daily profits from Bitcoin sales are climbing fast — and analysts say a key threshold could determine whether the current rally has legs or runs out of steam. Related Reading: ‘Extremely Good News’ – XRP DeFi Momentum Builds As SEC Softens Position On Interfaces Profit-Taking Still Below Danger Zone Realized daily profits are hovering around $500 million, according to blockchain data firm CryptoQuant. That number matters because $1 billion has historically marked the point where local price peaks tend to form. Reports from CryptoQuant indicate that if Bitcoin pushes closer to its realized price of $76,800, that $1 billion ceiling could be breached — and that is when selling pressure tends to build fast enough to stop a rally cold. Bitcoin touched $76,052 on Coinbase earlier this week, its highest level since early February. The move drew attention across crypto markets, where investors had been watching for signs of a recovery. Hopes for a sustained climb were partly tied to signals that the conflict involving Iran may be winding down, giving risk assets some breathing room. Exchange Inflows Hit A Multi-Month High What happened next raised a flag. As prices climbed, the amount of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges surged. Hourly inflows hit 11,000 BTC — the highest recorded since December. Large inflows like that typically mean one thing: holders are moving coins into position to sell. The average size of each deposit also jumped. At 2.25 BTC per transaction, it reached its highest point since July 2024. CryptoQuant pointed to a similar pattern in January, when average deposits climbed to around 2 BTC just before Bitcoin dropped from $100,000 to roughly $60,000 over the following weeks. That comparison is not lost on analysts watching the current move. Data shows the $76,800 level carries added weight because it represents the average price at which all existing Bitcoin last changed hands — what analysts call the realized price. When an asset trades near that level, many holders find themselves close to breaking even. The temptation to exit is strong. CryptoQuant says that dynamic capped Bitcoin’s upward move in January, and conditions now are similar enough that it could happen again. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Hit $85K Before April Ends, Analyst Says Support Level Waits Below A lower band sits at $67,600, which CryptoQuant identifies as near-term support if the rally stalls and prices pull back. That gives the market a fairly wide range to work with before anything more serious would need to be reassessed. For now, the data suggests the rally is at its first real test. Selling activity is rising but has not yet crossed the levels that typically precede a sharper reversal. Whether buyers can absorb the supply hitting exchanges in the days ahead will likely decide which direction Bitcoin heads next. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Hyperbridge said its Token Gateway exploit was about 10 times worse than first reported, revising realized losses to roughly $2.5 million.
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Bitcoin trades below the profitability threshold for active holders, with early signs of BTC demand offering limited price support for now.