Norway's increased oil earnings highlight the global economic impact of geopolitical tensions, emphasizing the vulnerability of energy markets.
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The exchange, formerly known as Garantex and based in Kyrgyzstan, has been sanctioned by the U.S., U.K. and EU for helping users bypass sanctions.
Rising oil prices and geopolitical tensions could drive gold's safe-haven demand, impacting global economic stability and central bank policies.
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The optimistic tone from the White House may influence market perceptions, but significant geopolitical hurdles remain for any sovereignty change.
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Estonia's confidence in US support highlights NATO's stability, but market skepticism suggests traders await concrete US actions or rhetoric.
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China's diplomatic efforts could reshape US-Iran relations and influence global geopolitical dynamics, potentially easing tensions.
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The summit's scheduling could ease trade tensions and reduce market uncertainty, impacting global economic and diplomatic dynamics.
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Bitcoin’s quantum risk may show up in derivatives markets well before any compromised coins move on-chain, according to FalconX co-head of markets Joshua Lim, who used an X thread on April 16 to map out what he sees as the most tradable signals around a potential “q-day” event. Lim’s core argument is that the market problem is not simply whether Bitcoin can migrate to post-quantum cryptography. It is also whether the network can politically resolve what to do with Satoshi Nakamoto’s coins and other old outputs that may never participate in such a migration. Quantum Risk Could Hit Bitcoin Through Derivatives Lim framed the issue as two separate questions. The first is technical: how Bitcoin could move away from elliptic curve cryptography used to secure private keys. The second is more fraught. “How to deal with the fundamentally non-mathematical and wholly sociopolitical question of what to do with Satoshi’s coins,” he wrote, arguing that the largest risk around quantum computing is not just cryptographic breakage but the governance crisis that could follow. He said a migration path for most of Bitcoin’s UTXOs is at least conceivable, pointing to BIP 361 as one example of a proposal that addresses both post-quantum migration and the handling of Satoshi-era coins. But that only solves part of the problem. Lim estimated that Satoshi’s holdings amount to roughly 1.1 million BTC, while other old or lost coins in pay-to-public-key addresses could push the total exposed supply to as much as 1.7 million BTC, which he called a “$127bn question.” Related Reading: 9 Reasons Why The Bitcoin Bottom May Already Be In: Expert Those coins, he argued, are different because they likely would not participate in any community-led migration unless Satoshi is still active and willing to move them. That creates two outcomes, neither comfortable for markets. “EITHER Satoshi is still around and can move coins pre q-day, in which case BTC price will tank because the market will re-price the probability of those coins being sold in the future,” Lim wrote. “OR Satoshi is not around and someone will decide to steal the coins via a sufficiently powerful QC.” That is why, in Lim’s telling, Satoshi’s coins are “not a math problem.” The available responses are political. One option would be to burn those coins through governance, a move he said would raise serious questions around immutability, sovereignty, and precedent. The other would be a hard fork that lets the market choose between a chain that neutralizes the coins and one that preserves the current ruleset, even if that leaves open the eventual risk of a quantum-enabled seizure. Lim suggested that even an attempt at the first path could lead to the second. “Our only prophylactic is to EITHER A) burn Satoshi’s coins via governance,” he wrote, before outlining the trade-off, “OR B) create a hard fork and allow for the market to decide which is the true BTC.” In his view, that likely becomes a political contest over Bitcoin’s identity as much as a security response. He added that the most likely quantum thief, if such a scenario emerged, would be “a state-level actor.” From there, Lim shifted from theory to market structure. He contrasted any future fork with Bitcoin’s August 2017 split, which produced BTC and BCH. Back then, he noted, Bitcoin was a roughly $45 billion, mostly retail market, and many holders welcomed the fork because it effectively created an additional asset. Today’s market is different: around $1.5 trillion, far more institutional, and wrapped in ETFs, listed futures, and options. That changes how risk would likely transmit. “A hard fork today, or even the prospect of one, would be an entirely different beast,” Lim wrote. “It would result in extreme volatility and likely downward price action: a large gap down and massive cascading liquidations.” He added that if the community were close to evenly split on whether to burn exposed coins, institutional investors might have a mandate to de-risk ahead of the event, amplifying downside pressure. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bulls Eye $78,000, But Glassnode Urges Caution That is where derivatives come in. Lim argued the earliest warning signs of q-day risk are most likely to emerge in long-dated options skew, forward basis, and the distribution of open interest across traditional and crypto-native venues. He pointed out that long-dated BTC put skew is near multi-year highs, with downside protection relatively expensive compared with calls, and said the last comparable elevation came around the Three Arrows Capital and FTX collapses in 2022. He also flagged long-dated basis, noting that Bitcoin futures are trading near multi-year lows relative to spot. In Lim’s framework, q-day risk should compress or even invert basis because market participants hedge for downside while others position for a possible fork-related “airdrop,” similar in concept to 2017. Since the timing of any quantum breakthrough would be uncertain, he expects those signals to appear farther out on the curve. Still, he stopped short of saying the market is already pricing an imminent quantum event. Some signals are “flashing red,” he wrote, but they can also be explained by broader systemic risks or secular shifts, including growing institutional participation through venues such as CME and IBIT options. For now, Lim described the picture as mixed. His broader point was simpler: if q-day ever begins to look real, traders likely will not first see it in dormant coins moving. They will see it in derivatives. At press time, Bitcoin traded at $75,024. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The claim could signal a potential de-escalation in US-Iran tensions, but skepticism remains due to past unfulfilled commitments.
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The EU's inability to review Mythos may hinder Anthropic's credibility, affecting its competitive position and market perception in AI.
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BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has revealed that over 90% of his personal wealth remains tied to Bitcoin. But surprisingly, he won’t buy more right now. However, he also said the market may stay unstable due to global tensions and future money printing. In addition to this, he has expressed a stronger relative interest in selective …
A potential US-Iran deal could stabilize regional tensions, impacting global markets and diplomatic relations significantly.
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The proposal's lack of market impact highlights Bitcoin's resilience and raises questions about the community's stance on protocol changes.
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The ceasefire's stability boosts market confidence, yet potential disruptions remain, highlighting geopolitical tensions and economic impacts.
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Rave DAO price has been on a massive run since the beginning of the month, rising over 7550%, forming highs close to $20. After a near-parabolic move from $2 to $19.66, the price is now pressing against a key resistance zone while momentum begins to slow. The rise has been largely driven by aggressive short …
The deadlock in negotiations highlights the challenges of achieving long-term diplomatic solutions amid fluctuating market sentiments.
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The ECB's inflation concerns amid geopolitical tensions could influence broader market stability and investor strategies globally.
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The prolonged disruption and costly repairs highlight the enduring impact on global trade and stability, extending beyond immediate conflicts.
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Persistent inflation risks may lead to tighter monetary policy, impacting economic growth and market stability in the Eurozone.
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The company also seeks to raise an additional $30 million in tokenized shares by the end of this year, according to Bloomberg.
The Hormuz blockade could lead to significant global economic instability, with potential oil price spikes impacting energy markets worldwide.
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The planned offensive underscores escalating tensions, diminishing prospects for a ceasefire and complicating diplomatic resolutions.
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Persistent US-Iran tensions highlight geopolitical instability, impacting global markets and diplomatic relations despite low war odds.
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The civilian movement across repaired bridges may signal a shift in regional power dynamics, impacting future military and diplomatic strategies.
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Russia's threats against European drone makers risk escalating tensions, further hindering diplomatic efforts and complicating peace prospects.
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Radev's potential premiership could stabilize Bulgaria's political landscape, ending the cycle of fragmented governments and uncertainty.
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The U.S.'s shift to a confrontational stance against Hezbollah could destabilize regional peace efforts and impact global diplomatic relations.
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A six-month ETH Rangers initiative funded by the Ethereum Foundation has uncovered around 100 suspected North Korean IT workers operating under fake identities inside 53 Web3 and crypto projects. The investigation, led by the Ketman Project, highlights a coordinated infiltration effort targeting blockchain firms through disguised developer profiles and freelance roles. The findings underline growing …
The decline in miner reserves signals increased market volatility, potentially leading to significant price fluctuations and strategic shifts.
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Spain's decision could exacerbate geopolitical tensions, leading to volatile oil markets and potential shifts in global trade dynamics.
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