Crypto prices came under pressure again on Friday as Treasury yields, not crude, became the macro variable traders could not ignore. Bitcoin slipped back below $69,000 after a short-lived relief rally earlier this week, while ether also traded lower, as hopes for a near-term easing in the Iran conflict faded and the US 10-year yield stayed near 4.42%. That is the core argument The Kobeissi Letter pushed in a widely shared thread via X: the market’s center of gravity has shifted from the oil spike itself to the rates shock that follows it. “The bond market is, by far, the biggest problem for the US right now, much bigger than the energy price situation,” Adam Kobeissi wrote. In the longer note, the firm sharpened the point further: “For weeks, markets have been fixated on oil, war headlines, and geopolitical escalation. But beneath the surface, a much larger force has been building, and it’s now beginning to take control. The bond market is now dictating the path of equities, commodities, and ultimately, policy itself.” Related Reading: Fidelity Sees Key Crypto Catalysts Emerging For Q2 2026 The market action this week fits that thesis. On Thursday, President Donald Trump said he would pause attacks on Iran’s energy plants for 10 days, until April 6, saying talks were “going very well.” Yields initially eased on the headline, but the move did not hold. By the end of the session, the 10-year Treasury yield had climbed to 4.415%, the highest since July, while mortgage rates had already risen to their highest since October and Fed Governor Lisa Cook said the war had shifted the balance of risks toward inflation. Futures markets had moved to price virtually no chance of a Fed cut in 2026. And the data shows the stress. The MOVE Index, a gauge of Treasury volatility, is at 115.02, up 17.86% on the day. Kobeissi also showed a FedWatch distribution that, in Kobeissi’s reading, now points to a base case of rates staying broadly unchanged through September 2027, a dramatic reversal from late 2025, when markets were still debating how many cuts the Fed would deliver in 2026. This is truly historic: In just 27 days of the Iran War, the discussion has now become about Fed rate HIKES. Just weeks ago, investors were debating how many rate cuts the Fed would implement in 2026. Now? There’s a 48% chance of an interest rate HIKE by January 2027. And,… https://t.co/ccQ91LLH3g pic.twitter.com/ve2drzl4Rb — The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) March 26, 2026 The firm tied that repricing to a labor market it says has deteriorated even before the latest inflation shock, citing deep downward revisions to payroll data over the last three years and a February unemployment duration of 25.7 weeks. For crypto, the message is straightforward: this is still trading as a liquidity-sensitive macro asset class. When Trump first said on March 23 that the US would postpone strikes and pursue talks, bitcoin rallied more than 5% to as high as $71,794 in New York, with altcoins also moving higher. That relief move has since unwound. By Friday, bitcoin was trading at $68,639 and ether at $2,061.81, both down on the day as the market rotated back to yields, policy risk and tighter financial conditions. BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes framed the crypto angle more directly in his usual shorthand. “Almost there … If Trump invades Iran what is Buffalo Bill Bessent going to do to calm the UST market?” he wrote, referring to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. Almost there … If Trump invades Iran what is Buffalo Bill Bessent going to do to calm the UST market? pic.twitter.com/7H2qakadgT — Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) March 26, 2026 The point is not simply that war could rattle markets, but that a deeper selloff in Treasuries could force some form of response from Washington. In Hayes’ macro framework, crypto does not meaningfully recover just because geopolitical tensions ease; it recovers when bond-market stress becomes severe enough to bring liquidity back into the system, whether through Bessent, the Fed, or both. Related Reading: Crypto Analysts Warn: Traders Misreading The Clarity Act Could Miss The Real Opportunity Kobeissi’s framework is similar. The firm argues that as yields move toward the 4.50% to 4.70% range on the 10-year, the odds of some form of policy response rise sharply because the White House has already shown it is sensitive to bond-market stress. That leaves crypto watching the same dashboard as every macro desk: Treasury yields, rate expectations and the credibility of any de-escalation headline. If bond volatility cools, crypto assets could respond the way they did earlier this week, snapping higher on even a modest improvement in war headlines. But if yields continue grinding upward, the market may keep treating bitcoin and the rest of crypto less as geopolitical hedges than as another expression of the global rates trade. At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $ Total crypto market cap chart, 1-week chart | Source: TOTAL on TradingView.com ds Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
US lawmakers on Friday unveiled the Digital Asset PARITY Act — a wide‑ranging draft bill that would reshape tax and regulatory treatment for digital assets while drawing immediate criticism for excluding Bitcoin (BTC). Introduced by Representatives Max Miller and Steven Horsford, the measure would, among other changes, create a narrow tax exemption for small stablecoin transactions and alter how staking income is treated. Key PARITY Act Provisions Under the PARITY proposal, regulated payment stablecoins used in transactions worth less than $200 would be exempt from recognizing gains or losses, provided the stablecoin’s price remains within 1% of its dollar peg at the time of payment. Related Reading: NVIDIA Faces Class Action After Court OKs $1 Billion Crypto-Mining Revenue Claims – Stock Dips 7% The bill also contains several other notable provisions, on staking for example, as it seeks to change the tax timing for income earned by passive participants in proof‑of‑stake (PoS) networks, permitting those “passive stakers” to defer the immediate tax consequences of staking rewards. Yet the bill’s approach to staking and mining has become a focal point for criticism. The Bitcoin Policy Institute (BPI) has been one of the most vocal opponents, arguing that PARITY’s staking deferral provisions create an uneven, technology‑biased tax regime that disadvantages proof‑of‑work (PoW) networks such as Bitcoin. BPI Objection Over Bitcoin Exclusion The Bitcoin Policy Institute contends the draft perpetuates the “phantom income” problem that both miners and stakers previously acknowledged needed legislative relief, but solves it only for stakers. The organization warned that by offering deferral to staking participants while leaving miners outside the relief, the bill effectively penalizes mining and undermines technological neutrality. Related Reading: MARA Holdings’ Bitcoin Sell-Off: 15,000 BTC Liquidated As Prices Crash Below $69,000 BPI called the imbalance “a two‑tier tax regime,” and urged lawmakers to remedy it by restoring a broader de minimis exemption that is not limited to stablecoins and by extending the deferral election to all block‑reward recipients — miners as well as stakers — or otherwise explicitly including mining in the relief. The Bitcoin Policy Institute argued these fixes are minimal but necessary steps if Congress truly intends to maintain US leadership in Bitcoin and digital asset innovation. Left unchanged, the group warned, the draft could disadvantage proof‑of‑work systems and shift innovation offshore. At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at roughly $66,000, representing a 4% and almost 6% loss in the 24-hour and seven-day time frames, respectively, as the broader crypto market wraps up the week to the downside. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Frustrations are continuing to boil over in the crypto industry as it finds itself again at an impasse over the treatment of stablecoins.
The executive order is the latest in a wave of legal actions in the US seeking to curb government insider trading on prediction markets.
XRP is under selling pressure. Weeks of consolidation below $1.50 have given way to a test of critical support. And quietly, an indicator that most traders are not watching has just flipped in a direction they should care about. Related Reading: Unknown Wallet Buys $107 Million In Ethereum – Purchase Pattern Points To Bitmine An Arab Chain report tracking risk-adjusted performance data on Binance has identified a shift that the price chart is not yet reflecting: XRP’s Sharpe Ratio has moved into positive territory at 0.0267, while the 30-day average return has climbed to 0.00063 — a modest but meaningful reading that marks the first sustained improvement in risk-adjusted returns following months of negative and near-zero readings. These are not large numbers. That is precisely the point. The Sharpe Ratio does not need to be high to be significant — it needs to be moving in the right direction after an extended period of moving in the wrong direction. For XRP, that directional shift is new, it is recent, and it is happening while the price is still under pressure. That divergence — between what the risk-adjusted data is signaling and what the spot market is doing — is where the most important market information tends to live. The price reflects the present. The indicator is measuring something further out. The Indicator Spent Four Months in the Red. March Changed That Arab Chain’s historical read of the data places the current positive reading in its proper context. From October through late December, the Sharpe Ratio remained in negative or near-zero territory — a sustained period in which XRP holders were bearing risk that their returns were not compensating them for. That is not a temporary fluctuation. That is a regime, and it lasted the better part of a quarter. The February capitulation marked the low point of that regime. When XRP’s price collapsed sharply in early February, the indicator registered its most negative reading of the entire period — the moment when risk was highest, and returns were most punishing simultaneously. What followed was not an immediate recovery but a gradual one: the Sharpe Ratio began climbing as price stabilized, and March delivered the decisive shift, with the 30-day average return rising enough to push the indicator into positive territory for the first time since the cycle began deteriorating. Arab Chain frames the forward scenario with appropriate precision. If the Sharpe Ratio continues climbing — if returns improve while volatility stays contained — the data supports a progressively more stable bullish setup. If it reverses into negative territory, the stress regime returns. The indicator has crossed. The price has not followed yet. One of them will move toward the other. Related Reading: $2.3 Billion Ethereum Has Left OKX And Binance This Quarter: The Sell-Side Supply Is Thinning The XRP Support That Was Holding Is Now Being Tested XRP is trading at $1.3365, down 1.79% on the day. The session opened at $1.3608, reached $1.3726, and has sold off to a session low of $1.3340 — a candle that opened, rejected immediately, and has spent the remainder of the day pressing toward levels not seen since the February capitulation floor. Today’s price action is not ambiguous. It is a breakdown attempt. The daily chart context makes today’s move consequential rather than routine. XRP has been in a confirmed downtrend since November 2025, producing a sequence of lower highs without exception — the January rally to $2.40, the post-capitulation bounce to $1.65, the March recovery attempt to $1.55, each one sold into at a lower level than the one before. The structure has not produced a single higher high in five months. Related Reading: Ethereum Staking Ratio Hits Record 31.4% As Exchange Supply Crashes To 2016 Lows All three moving averages are declining in sequence, and the price trades beneath all of them. The 50-day MA has crossed below the 100-day MA, confirming the death cross on the intermediate timeframe. The 200-day MA descends from approximately $2.20, so far above the current price that it offers no near-term reference point. The February capitulation wick to $1.15 is the last meaningful support on this chart. Today’s close at $1.3365 is pressing toward the lower boundary of the post-capitulation range. A daily close below $1.33 puts $1.15 back in play — not as a prediction, but as the next structural level the chart exposes if the current floor gives way. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin price slumped on Friday as uncertainty over the US economy and war in Iran negatively impacted stock and crypto markets.
"The issue is whether or not people support CROPS and going in that direction, the issue is how the EF is going about it,” Optimism's Mark Tyneway said.
Kalshi gets margin approval as its $22 billion valuation and booming event trading volumes push prediction markets further into Wall Street.
The post Kalshi moves toward margin trading with new regulatory approval appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Bitcoin has never finished a year positive after a start this bad Bitcoin seasonality is one of those market narratives that stays alive because the average is easy to screenshot. The problem is that the average often hides the only thing that matters: the state. A strong “Uptober” inside a healthy bull trend is not […]
The post Bitcoin price has never ended a year higher after a start this bad — can 2026 break the pattern? appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Regulatory uncertainty shakes stablecoins as institutions push forward, prediction markets tighten rules and AI agents reshape micropayment economics.
Bitcoin (BTC) has plummeted below $66K, trading at $65,675 at press time, which is a 3.98% drop in 24h, and a 47.9% dip from its October all-time high (ATH) of $126K. Source: CoinMarketCap Liquidations in Bitcoin futures positions totaled $189.17 million, with long positions accounting for $173.24 million. Traditional assets have not been spared, with …
Prediction market platforms are tightening trading restrictions and surveillance tools as concerns grow over insider participants.
The bank priced its proposed spot bitcoin fund at 14 basis points, making it the lowest fund on the market, if approved.
The P2P.me team opened positions on the Polymarket prediction platform to wager whether the project would hit its $6 million fundraising goal.
Bitcoin and select major altcoins have turned down sharply, indicating that the bears are trying to take charge of the market.
Analysts suggest that the XRP price, currently sitting near $1.40, is undervalued. Although the cryptocurrency rose above $3 last year, it failed to reach a new all-time high and has since faced a major downturn as its technical structure weakened. Despite this, analysts maintain a strong bullish outlook, arguing that even a $10 valuation is too low for the cryptocurrency. At the same time, other experts are highlighting developing factors that could help XRP break free from its current suppression and potentially reach higher levels. What XRP’s Fair Value Really Looks Like Bird, an XRP Ledger (XRPL) developer, took to X on Wednesday, March 25, to present his new bullish outlook for XRP. Firstly, the analyst highlighted the discrepancy between XRP’s current price and what he believes should be its true value. Related Reading: XRP Pundit Shares Why You Shouldn’t Get Tricked By The Price Rebound Bird stated plainly that “XRP is a $100+ token trading at $1.40.” The developer’s statement suggests a strong belief that the cryptocurrency’s current price does not reflect its underlying utility potential. His reasoning likely centers on XRP’s role in the global payments ecosystem, particularly its use by financial institutions for cross-border transactions. Unlike many cryptocurrencies that derive value primarily from speculative interest and hype, XRP is positioned as a functional settlement layer for banks and payment providers worldwide. Supporters of the cryptocurrency have long argued that XRP’s price could skyrocket due to the demand and liquidity that could come from its core utility. Looking at Bird’s statement from another angle, the gap between $1.40 and $100 could also represent one of the most compelling opportunities in the current crypto market. He closed his post by telling followers “you know what to do,” subtly hinting that now may be the right time to accumulate XRP at its current price. In response, some members of the community boldly declared that they would continue buying XRP, underscoring their strong confidence in the cryptocurrency’s potential to reach $100. XRP Price Remains Suppressed Luke Suthers, a well-known XRP advocate, has also shared his bullish thesis on the cryptocurrency’s value. This time, he outlines several developing catalysts that could propel the altcoin upward rather than a specific price target. Related Reading: Analyst Reveals The Plan For XRP Price Using The Bitcoin Chart Suthers noted that the XRP price is currently being suppressed. He emphasized that while banks and institutions accumulate the cryptocurrency behind the scenes, XRP is still trading around $1.40. At the same time, the analyst also noted that Ripple, the crypto payments company, is actively expanding its rails and acquiring additional companies to strengthen its ecosystem. Based on these bullish developments, Suthers concludes that XRP’s price is undervalued, arguing that it does not reflect its true value. He pointed out that major players are already positioning themselves ahead of an expected market shift and liquidity wave. Suthers warns investors not to get left behind, urging them to consider positioning strategically as well. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com
Codifying SEC-CFTC rules into law could prevent politically motivated crackdowns, fostering innovation and enhancing US crypto competitiveness.
The post Ripple CEO warns against another weaponized Gensler moment if SEC-CFTC rules aren’t codified into law appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
The US city is expected to pen an amicus brief in Coinbase's lawsuit against the state of Michigan, which the exchange filed ahead of its prediction markets launch.
The crypto market is consolidating. Bitcoin and Ethereum have traded within the same range for more than 50 days. And in the third week of March, the derivatives market made its first significant statement about what comes next. Related Reading: Unknown Wallet Buys $107 Million In Ethereum – Purchase Pattern Points To Bitmine A CryptoQuant analysis tracking perpetual futures activity has identified a meaningful acceleration in open interest: on March 16, combined Bitcoin and Ethereum OI climbed to approximately $30 billion — the highest reading since late January, and a level that was not reached gradually but in a single week of concentrated positioning. Bitcoin OI reached $23 billion. Ethereum approached $16 billion. Both moved in the same direction, at the same time, during the same price rally. That synchronicity matters. When open interest builds across two major assets simultaneously during a relief rally, it does not reflect organic spot demand — it reflects traders opening leveraged positions in anticipation of a directional move. The capital is not buying Bitcoin and Ethereum. It is betting on them. Fifty days of consolidation have a way of building pressure. The $30 billion in open interest now sitting in perpetual futures is the market’s way of declaring that the range will not last forever — and that when it breaks, the move will be amplified. When Crypto Leverage Moves, It Goes to Binance First. The CryptoQuant report is precise about where the $30 billion in open interest is actually sitting. Binance absorbed the largest share of the inflow by a significant margin: BTC open interest on the exchange rose by $829 million, while ETH open interest climbed by approximately $1.6 billion — a combined $2.4 billion in new leveraged exposure flowing into a single venue during a single week. Bybit and Gate.io recorded meaningful gains as well, but the heatmap data leaves no ambiguity about the hierarchy. That concentration is not coincidental. It is structural. During periods of strong price momentum, capital does not distribute evenly across the derivatives landscape — it gravitates toward the deepest, most liquid venues where large positions can be opened and closed without slippage. Binance is that venue. It has been for every significant derivatives expansion in recent memory, and the March rally was no exception. What the concentration reveals is as important as the size. When $2.4 billion in new open interest flows into a single exchange in one week, the resulting positions are tightly clustered. Clustered positions create clustered liquidation levels. And clustered liquidation levels mean that when the market moves against those positions, it does not move gradually. The leverage is on Binance. The range is still intact. Those two facts belong in the same sentence. Related Reading: $2.3 Billion Ethereum Has Left OKX And Binance This Quarter: The Sell-Side Supply Is Thinning The Entire Market Has Given Back a Year of Gains The total crypto market cap stands at $2.31 trillion, down 0.21% on the week — a marginal move on a candle that opened at $2.32 trillion, reached $2.44 trillion, and has since retreated. That weekly high rejection at $2.44 trillion is the operative fact. The market attempted to reclaim lost ground and was turned back. The macro context is what makes the current level sobering. Total market cap peaked near $4.1 trillion in late 2025 — the highest level in crypto’s history — and has retraced approximately 44% from that peak, erasing the entirety of the 2025 bull run and returning to levels last traded in early 2024. This is not a correction within a bull market. It is a full cycle rollover. Related Reading: The Bitcoin Coinbase Discount Is Back: History Says That Is Worth Watching The weekly moving average configuration confirms the structural damage. Price has broken decisively below the 50-week MA, which has now turned lower from the $3.5 trillion region. The 100-week MA, the green line ascending through approximately $2.9 trillion, provided no meaningful support — price sliced through it and has not reclaimed it since. The 200-week MA continues its long-term ascent near $2.1 trillion and represents the last major structural support visible on this timeframe. The current level of $2.31 trillion is trading in the gap between the 200-week MA below and the 100-week MA above. That gap is the battleground. Reclaiming $2.9 trillion is the minimum requirement for any credible structural recovery argument. Until then, the chart describes a market in retreat, not consolidation. Featured image from ChatGPT, chart from TradingView.com
Anthropic's next-generation model, dubbed Claude Mythos, is seen as a "step change" for AI—and potentially bad news for cybersecurity.
Binance CEO Changpeng Zhao (CZ) has cautioned the public against trusting persons claiming to manage cryptocurrency project listings on Binance. These scammers offer to list crypto projects on Binance, claiming to work for the company or to be acquintances/ friends of CZ. The executive distanced himself from such persons, saying he intends on blacklisting them …
Judge blocks Trump administration from enforcing Anthropic blacklist, handing Claude maker an early win in its fight with the Pentagon.
The post Anthropic wins early court fight over Pentagon blacklist and Trump ban appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
Bitcoin is heading into the weekend with broken near-term structure, elevated macro pressure, and a political catalyst that now sits close to the center of the market’s risk map. The technical setup has deteriorated in steps over the past two weeks. The macro backdrop has stayed tight as Treasury yields press higher and Middle East […]
The post Bitcoin price is heading for weekend collapse to $61k – will a social media post from Trump save it? appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Largely optimistic the CLARITY Act will be passed, Brad Garlinghouse revised his prediction for when the legislation with be finalized.
Tech stocks slide as broader market selloff deepens, crypto drops below key levels, and gold rises amid US Iran tensions and rising yields.
The post Tech stocks lead Friday selloff as crypto breaks lower and gold and silver spike appeared first on Crypto Briefing.
While Bitcoin sits near $70,000 and many investors are questioning whether they missed the rally, macro investor Lawrence Lepard is making a bullish case: the biggest move is still ahead, and the window to buy cheap is closing fast. Buy the Dip or Regret It Lepard’s message to anyone sitting on the sidelines is clear. …
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse has made one of his boldest public predictions yet, telling an audience at FII Priority that the CLARITY Act will pass by the end of May 2026, and that the stablecoin payment revolution is no longer a question of if but when. “People Are Exhausted. That Is When They Finally Compromise” …
Intercontinental Exchange, the firm behind the New York Stock Exchange, invested a total of $1.6 billion into prediction market Polymarket.
The bill proposes exempting dollar-pegged stablecoins from gains or losses if the tokens remain tightly pegged to the underlying fiat currency.
An interesting statement from Grant Cardone has led to a different kind of conversation. According to the popular American businessman, the Bitcoin price should be $280,000. His claim that Bitcoin should already be trading at $280,000 raises a deeper question: if that valuation were accurate today, what would it imply for the rest of the market? That question becomes even more interesting when applied to cryptocurrencies like Dogecoin and XRP, which tend to move in tandem to Bitcoin. Grant Cardone’s $280,000 Bitcoin Call And What It Implies The real estate mogul, who oversees about $5.3 billion in assets through his firm CardoneCapital, recently took to X to deliver a blunt verdict on the state of Bitcoin: “Bitcoin should be $280,000.” No chart attached, no lengthy thread. Just four words carrying the weight of a man who has put $70 million of his firm’s balance sheet behind Bitcoin. Related Reading: Bitcoin Distribution Mechanism Has Not Changed, All Roads Point To Crash Below $50,000 At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading far below that $280,000 price projection. To put this into perspective, Bitcoin is currently trading just below $70,000, at around $67,750, meaning Cardone’s projection implies a 4x revaluation. However, that kind of move doesn’t exist in isolation. When Bitcoin goes on such a move, the liquidity spills into altcoins, pushing them into price rallies of their own. What The XRP And Dogecoin’s Prices Could Look Like In That Scenario Dogecoin has always traded as a high-beta extension of Bitcoin. When Bitcoin trends upward, Dogecoin often amplifies that move, driven by retail momentum and speculative cycles. If Bitcoin were to move from roughly $70,000 to $280,000, maintaining current ratios alone would already imply a significant shift. At a 4x Bitcoin move, Dogecoin could theoretically follow into a similar multiple, placing it somewhere around the $0.35 to $0.40 range from current levels near $0.09. That is the conservative view based purely on correlation. However, Dogecoin rarely rallies only 4x in strong bull phases. In previous cycles, it has outperformed Bitcoin by a wide margin during peak momentum periods. If that dynamic repeats, a Bitcoin price at $280,000 could easily place Dogecoin closer to a new all-time high above $0.73 and probably even above $1. Related Reading: Breaking Down The $100 XRP Prophecy: Is There A Timeline? On the other hand, XRP is currently trading near $1.43. That puts the XRP/BTC ratio at approximately 0.00002. If Bitcoin were to re-rate to $280,000 while that ratio stays constant, XRP would be trading somewhere between $5.60 and $6.00. That alone would already see the XRP price trading at price peaks compared to the current range, which many long-term holders have been waiting for. XRP’s upside is always discussed in terms of utility and integration into cross-border payments. In a scenario where Bitcoin reaches $280,000, those utility conditions could amplify XRP’s role as a bridge asset and even cause the XRP price to break above double digits above $10. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com