Bitcoin is back above $70,000 after a bruising first quarter, but there are still questions as to whether the asset has already established its cycle low or is still moving through a bottoming phase. A technical indicator following one interesting Bitcoin metric is presently showing signs that the bottom may not yet be in. The Metric With A Perfect Record One Bitcoin metric has always predicted every cycle bottom, and what it is saying now is very important for its next outlook. This metric is the long-term holder supply in loss, which is a measure that tracks how much of the supply held by long-term investors is underwater at current prices. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price To $80,000: How The February Bullish Trend Can Push It 20% Higher Long-term holders are Bitcoin addresses who have held their coins for at least 155 days, and so it captures how deeply underwater the most patient cohort of the market has become. The numbers, which were noted in an analysis by crypto analyst Ardi, show that whenever long-term holders fall into losses in significant numbers, it has always occurred near the end of bear markets. These are phases where selling pressure decreases as weaker hands exit, and only the most committed investors are left. During the 2015 cycle bottom, 53% of long-term holder supply was in loss. A similar pattern appeared at the 2018 low, where about 45% of long-term holdings were in loss. The trend repeated once more during the 2022 bottom, with the figure reaching around 44%. b The current long-term holder supply in Loss reading sits at approximately 29% and it is climbing. That figure is meaningful in two directions simultaneously. On one hand, it confirms that conditions are deteriorating and there’s still a large share of holders that would move into loss if prices decline further. Related Reading: Bitcoin Just Deviated From The Bearish Trend That Began In January And $86,000 Could Be Next On the other hand, the reading is still well short of the 44% to 53% range that has always been certified as genuine cycle floors. According to crypto analyst Ardi, this second meaning shows that the Bitcoin price is not at the bottom yet but is still building toward the conditions where bottoms form. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $71,127, down by 1.1% in the past 24 hours. Its most recent cycle low was recorded just below $63,000 during the market-wide crash in early February. The leading cryptocurrency is still trading around $70,000, which has turned out to be a psychologically important area. The broader crypto market sentiment is currently lacking any clear bullish momentum, with price action across major assets reflecting hesitation. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at a reading of 43, placing it firmly in neutral territory. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
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A subtle shift in US payment infrastructure could be opening an unexpected door for XRP. The latest proposal from the Federal Reserve to expand FedNow capabilities is sparking new conversations across the digital asset space, and XRP may be quietly entering the spotlight. Ripple’s Vision Aligns With Evolving Payment Infrastructure A transformative shift is unfolding in the US payment infrastructure, one that could impact Ripple and the role of XRP. Analyst XFinanceBull has revealed on X that the Federal Reserve has proposed expanding FedNow to allow banks and credit unions to use intermediaries for fund transfers. Related Reading: XRP Might Be The Most Recognizable Names In RWA, But Is It The Leader? Here Are The Numbers This move goes beyond the current limitation of direct transfers strictly between two US banks. Furthermore, the proposal could open the door for intermediaries to help bridge and facilitate the international side of the payment. XFinanceBull highlighted that Ripple National Trust Bank has already been conditionally approved by the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC). This charter would allow Ripple to custody digital assets, offer lending services, and gain direct access to the Federal Reserve System, such as FedNow for instant payments. The next step is the Fed Master Account application, which would directly connect a chartered bank to the Federal Reserve’s payment systems. Ripple is still waiting on this approval, and this is not speculation. Furthermore, research published in a peer-reviewed journal by the Financial Planning Association has explored how Ripple and XRP are building the bridge for cross-border transactions. It specifically noted that possible integration points include systems like FedNow access and participation in the discount window for liquidity support. By connecting the dots, the Fed is expanding FedNow to support cross-border payments through intermediaries, and Ripple already has a conditionally approved national bank charter. The Fed Master Account is the final piece that would connect Ripple directly to the Fed’s instant payment infrastructure. Meanwhile, over 300 financial institutions have been reported to be using it, adopting, or exploring XRP. At the same time, Ripple’s involvement with global institutions such as the IMF and the Bank for International Settlements underscores its focus on interoperability within the existing digital money. XFinanceBull concluded that this is not about replacing the system, but about becoming part of it. The Fed has just opened the door, and Ripple may already be holding the conditional key, waiting for final approval to step fully into the system. How XRP Enables Instant Currency Conversion XRP is rapidly redefining how value moves across the global financial system. An Ambassador known as Ledger Man has stated that XRP functions as a powerful bridge currency, capable of converting local currencies such as the Iraqi Dinar, Vietnamese Dong, and Venezuelan Bolivar into US dollars with speed, efficiency, and full transparency. Related Reading: Ripple Introduces New System To Merge Corporate Finance And Digital Assets With the system already going live through partnerships with firms like Temenos, this could be the future of digital banking and cross-border payments. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
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US President Donald J. Trump is set to attend the “crypto and business conference” at Mar-a-Lago on April 25. Marketed by Trump-linked company Fight Fight Fight LLC, the gala luncheon features exclusive entry for the top 297 holders of the TRUMP memecoin and a reception for the top 29 holders. Performance of Trump-associated meme coins: …
Crypto markets are showing early signs that the worst may be over, following a prolonged decline that began with the industry’s sharp sell-off back in October of last year. In a new report shared on social media, technical analyst Ali Martinez says the market is now starting to form what he calls a structural floor. Next Cycle Setup For Crypto Leaders Martinez’s view is rooted in the idea that seven months of heavy volatility may also be creating a rare opportunity. For those focused on the longer-term picture, he argues, the current turbulence can act as a reset period before the next multi-year cycle. Rather than treating the current sell-off as purely negative, Martinez suggests it may be setting up the conditions for a new upward phase once the market stops bleeding. Related Reading: Adam Back Denies Being Bitcoin Creator In Response To NYT: ‘I Am Not Satoshi’ When looking at the “big picture” for broader crypto market structure, Martinez points to a metric he says helps define the floor: the CVDD Channel, which stands for Cumulative Value Days Destroyed. According to his analysis, Bitcoin’s “Golden Zone” is currently near $49,330. He claims that historically, entries into this area have tended to show up before bull market runs, and he outlines upside targets for what could follow—potentially reaching $178,478, and in an even more extended scenario, $273,158. The analyst then turns to Ethereum (ETH). Martinez says he is watching whether ETH is moving within a parallel channel pattern, and if that interpretation holds, he believes the zone between current levels and $1,070 could offer a high-conviction entry point. From there, he highlights an ecosystem-wide rally scenario with a macro target around $8,670 as the next major objective, framing it as a move that would emerge as the broader crypto ecosystem matures. Outlook For XRP, SOL, And DOGE For XRP, Martinez focuses on a specific support level as the key to determining whether the crypto market can stabilize. He says that if XRP can hold support near $0.80, it could create a strong “buy the dip” setup, potentially giving traders a chance before a later retest of XRP’s all-time high near $3.30 and beyond. Solana (SOL) is next, and Martinez suggests SOL may need a broader “generational” reset to complete the bottoming process. He argues that the possible low area ranges from $74 to $50, describing that band as a total reset of speculative “froth.” Martinez characterizes that kind of clearance as a major launchpad for the next upward move, implying that the more aggressive the washout, the more room there may be for the following leg higher. Related Reading: JPMorgan CEO Says Bank Must Build Its Own Blockchain To Counter Crypto Threats Finally, Martinez discusses Dogecoin (DOGE) using what he calls fractal signals. He says the memecoin’s chart structure indicates a coiling phase that often appears before the next parabolic move. In that context, Martinez points to a zone he believes is where larger, more informed buyers could begin accumulating. His range for that buildup is between $0.090 and $0.060, which he describes as the area where accumulation could start to intensify ahead of a potential upside surge. Featured image from OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Wall Street’s financial advisory machine now has a direct line to Bitcoin. Morgan Stanley Investment Management launched its spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund on NYSE Arca on Tuesday, backed by a network of roughly 16,000 financial advisors who can steer clients into the product through their standard brokerage accounts. Related Reading: Bitcoin Faces Quantum Risk As Bernstein Sees 3–5 Year Window For Upgrades First Bank-Affiliated Asset Manager To Cross The Line The fund, trading under the ticker MSBT, tracks Bitcoin’s daily price using the CoinDesk Bitcoin Benchmark 4 PM NY Settlement Rate — a pricing tool that pulls executed trade data from major Bitcoin spot exchanges to generate a standardized settlement figure. While BlackRock and Fidelity already offer Bitcoin ETFs, neither is affiliated with a traditional US bank. Morgan Stanley’s entry fills that gap and marks the first time a bank-linked asset manager has brought a cryptocurrency product of this kind to market. LATEST: ???? Morgan Stanley launches its Bitcoin ETF on NYSE Arca today, becoming the first major US bank to offer a publicly traded spot Bitcoin fund. https://t.co/r3un2WaSGs pic.twitter.com/lRV9IOsgEO — CoinMarketCap (@CoinMarketCap) April 8, 2026 Eric Balchunas of Bloomberg called it a dramatic shift for the industry. Just a few years ago, he said, such a move from Morgan Stanley would have been unthinkable. Fees Set Below The Competition Morgan Stanley priced MSBT at a 0.14% sponsor fee — a hair below Grayscale Investments, which charges around 0.15% for a comparable product. It’s a small difference on paper, but in a market where cost comparisons drive investor decisions, even a single basis point can tip the scales. The firm says that makes MSBT the lowest-cost Bitcoin ETP currently available among comparable offerings. BNY and Coinbase were tapped to handle custody of the fund’s digital assets. BNY also takes on the administrator and transfer agent roles, covering accounting, record-keeping, and cash management. The combination of a legacy banking giant and a major crypto exchange signals a deliberate effort to meet institutional standards from the start. Related Reading: XRP Faces No Immediate Quantum Threat As Only 0.03% Supply Seen At Risk: Analyst Launch Comes Amid Fresh Outflows Across Bitcoin Funds The timing is not without friction. Bitcoin ETF products recorded their first week of net outflows just before MSBT went live, with close to $160 million pulled from these funds. Fidelity and Grayscale saw nearly $48 million and $42 million in withdrawals each. Despite the headwind, Morgan Stanley is pressing ahead. MSBT joins an ETF platform the firm launched in 2023, which now manages over $12 billion across 19 products. Adding a Bitcoin fund extends that lineup beyond traditional asset classes for the first time. Whether retail investors — guided by those thousands of financial advisors — will move in behind it remains the open question. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
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The Toncoin price has been plunging since the rejection that it faced in the first few days of the year. The token continued to form consecutive lower highs and lows as bears held a tight grip over the rally. Currently, it is attempting a recovery after a prolonged downtrend, but the broader structure remains under …
XRP holders are currently sitting on major losses as the price continues to decline from the 2025 bull run highs. These holders risk larger losses on their investments, as crypto analyst CasiTrades has warned that XRP could still see new lows. XRP Holders Currently Seeing Major Negative Returns On Their Investments On-chain analytics platform Santiment revealed that the average wallets that have been active on the XRP Ledger (XRPL) over the past year are down an average of 41% on their investments. Santiment noted that this is the lowest Mean Value to Realized Value (MVRV) for XRP holders since the FTX crash in November 2022. Related Reading: Don’t Get Trapped In XRP: Analyst Sounds Warning That Price Will Still Crash To This Level Santiment noted that because crypto assets are zero-sum trading games, significantly negative average returns, not just a price drop, but actual trader returns, imply that there is much lower risk than average in buying or adding to one’s XRP positions. The platform explained that this is because competing traders are already in severe ‘blood in the streets’ territory. On-chain analytics platform Glassnode also highlighted how much XRP holders are currently underwater. In an X post, the platform noted that with price trading at $1.33, the percentage of XRP supply in profit has declined to 43.4%, the lowest level since July 2024. Glassnode had previously noted that a large portion of the XRP supply was sitting at a loss even when the price was trading around $2.15. This signaled that the XRP market was a “top-heavy and structurally fragile market,” dominated by late buyers. XRP Preparing For Another Leg Down Crypto analyst CasiTrades has indicated that XRP is preparing for another leg down, which could put XRP holders in further losses. She noted that the bounce from the U.S.-Iran ceasefire agreement is over now and that she is watching for a wave-3 down. The analyst also revealed that the ceasefire push over the last 24 hours sent XRP perfectly into the .618 retracement, which gave the market a clean wave-2 relief rally. Related Reading: Forget XRP Price Weakness, Investors Are Still Pouring In, And Wallet Figures Just Hit An Impressive Target CasiTrades acknowledged that the wave-2 move for XRP knocked out one of the smaller subwave counts, but that the bigger structure hasn’t changed. She added that the real move hasn’t happened yet and that she is still expecting a wave-3 move down toward $1.09, which the analyst warned could accelerate fast. The analyst had previously warned that XRP could drop towards $1.08, which is the macro .786 support, and then see another relief bounce before breaking lower into $0.87, which is the macro .854 support, marking the fifth wave of this bearish move down. At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.33, down over 3% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com