ZCSH holders would receive three shares for every one held as the fund cuts per-share NAV proportionately without changing investment value solely because of the split.
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Withdrawals close Sept. 14 at 14:00 UTC, ahead of Sept. 15–25 liquidation with no guaranteed proceeds currency.
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Grayscale Zcash ETF Filing Puts Privacy Coin Back In Regulatory Spotlight - Read the full analysis.
Spendable shielded ZEC must be in Ironwood at the snapshot before the Aug. 25 to Sept. 14 poll.
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The company had $7.6 million in cash as its biotech subsidiary began seeking resources for Phase 3.
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Zcash has completed a two-phase emergency network upgrade to fix a critical vulnerability in its Orchard shielded pool — a flaw that sat undetected for four years, could theoretically have allowed unlimited undetectable counterfeit ZEC creation, and triggered a 50% price collapse before the network’s swift response began restoring confidence and driving a recovery in ZEC’s price. Related Reading: Analyst Charts Ethereum Long-Term Roadmap To $16,000 – There’s No Need To Panic Josh Swihart, CEO of Electric Coin Company — the primary developer of Zcash — posted on X on June 7 confirming the fix was complete and the network secure, as ZEC began its recovery from the lows reached after the vulnerability’s disclosure. The post arrived at a critical moment for the asset: ZEC had crashed approximately 50% from a June 4 peak of $624 to $309 on June 5, wiping more than $3 billion from its market capitalization, per the BitMEX Blog’s documented timeline of the incident. ZEC's price trends to the upside over the past 48 hours, as seen on the daily chart. Source: ZECUSD on Tradingview How The Zcash Bug Was Found — And What It Was The vulnerability was discovered on May 29, 2026 by security researcher Taylor Hornby during a protocol audit commissioned by Shielded Labs. Hornby identified a “soundness” flaw in Zcash’s Orchard zero-knowledge proof circuit — specifically an under-constrained element in the Orchard Action circuit that could allow invalid state transitions, creating a theoretical double-spending risk within the shielded pool. The discovery was made using Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.8 AI model alongside a custom analysis suite, per Shielded Labs’ official disclosure. Hornby and the AI developed a working proof-of-concept that successfully generated unlimited, completely undetectable counterfeit ZEC in a local test environment — described by one independent analyst as “about the worst kind of bug a cryptocurrency can have,” per Yahoo Finance’s reporting of the disclosure. Critically, the flaw did not permit inflation of the total ZEC supply on the live network. Zcash’s internal turnstile accounting mechanism — which tracks the total value moving into and out of the shielded pool — confirmed no unauthorized value creation occurred while the flaw was active, per Shielded Labs’ official statement. However, the organization acknowledged directly that due to the privacy properties of Orchard and the nature of the bug, there is no definitive cryptographic way to determine whether exploitation occurred — a limitation inherent to the shielded pool’s design that became its own source of market concern. The vulnerability had been present since Orchard’s activation in May 2022 — four years — without detection. The Emergency Response Zcash’s development ecosystem responded with unusual speed. The first phase was an emergency soft fork deployed through Zebra 4.5.3, activated at block 3,363,426 on June 2, which temporarily disabled all Orchard transactions to remove the attack path while developers prepared the permanent fix. Transparent and Sapling transactions continued operating normally throughout, per the Zcash Foundation’s official announcement on X. The second phase arrived on June 3 through the NU6.2 hard fork — activated at block 3,364,600 via Zebra 5.0.0 — which introduced a corrected circuit and a new verifying key, patching the flaw and re-enabling Orchard transactions, per the Foundation. The market’s initial reaction to the hard fork was positive. ZEC rose from $544 on June 2 to $603 on June 3, continuing to $624 on June 4 — its highest level since the rally began. Then Arthur Hayes publicly disclosed he had exited his entire ZEC position intraday on June 4 — the same day as the peak — citing five macro factors including higher energy prices and upcoming AI IPOs, per his X post covered in prior reporting. The combination of Hayes’ exit and lingering uncertainty about whether exploitation had occurred before the patch sent ZEC to $309 on June 5. The Recovery And What It Means Swihart’s June 7 X post — reassuring the community that total ZEC supply remained intact throughout and that the network had passed through the emergency without confirmed exploitation — appears to have been the catalyst for the recovery now underway. The swift two-phase response, combined with the Foundation’s transparent disclosure and Swihart’s direct communication, provided the confidence signal the market needed. This development marks a pivotal and genuinely uncomfortable moment for Zcash’s long-term positioning in the nascent sector. A four-year-old vulnerability in the Orchard pool — the very component that defines ZEC’s core privacy value proposition — has been fixed cleanly and without confirmed exploitation. Related Reading: Has The Bitcoin Price Crash Ended Or Is This Just The Beginning? Analyst Answers But the structural irony that the privacy properties that make Zcash valuable also make it impossible to confirm the vulnerability was never used will remain a question mark the community will need to address as the recovery continues. As of this writing, ZEC trades at around $430, recovering from its June 5 lows as confidence in the network’s security response gradually rebuilds. Cover image from Grok, ZECUSD Chart from Tradingview
Arthur Hayes says Maelstrom has sold its entire Zcash position after new disclosures around the Orchard Pool vulnerability sharpened the perceived risk around ZEC’s monetary integrity. The move effectively ends his recent “Holy Trinity” trade across ZEC, NEAR and HYPE, while leaving Worldcoin as the AI-linked bet he says the fund still holds. “The Holy Trinity is dead,” Hayes wrote on X. “Sadly due to the Orchard Pool exploit, I had to dump our entire ZEC bag.” Why Is Hayes Dumping Zcash Now? The post followed a detailed statement from Zooko Wilcox, Jason McGee and Taylor Hornby, who described the issue as “The Orchard Counterfeiting Vulnerability.” According to their summary, Hornby discovered a critical vulnerability in Zcash’s Orchard pool on May 29 and disclosed it to Zcash Open Development Lab, which then coordinated an emergency response completed on June 2. The key line was stark: the vulnerability “could have been exploited to undetectably create an unlimited amount of counterfeit ZEC within Orchard.” Related Reading: Zcash Fixes Critical Orchard Vulnerability As ZEC Holds $600 Support That disclosure changed the market framing. Earlier ecosystem messaging had emphasized that the vulnerability had been remediated, that there was no evidence of exploitation, and that user funds remained safe. But Wilcox, McGee and Hornby added an important caveat: because of Orchard’s privacy properties, there is no way to cryptographically prove whether the vulnerability was exploited while it existed. That distinction sits at the center of Hayes’ decision to exit. “While I think it’s extremely unlikely of any minting, it cannot be formally cryptographically proved impossible,” Hayes wrote. “The privacy from AI, govt, big tech narrative demands perfection not improbability. I read about the exploit yday, and didn’t appreciate how it violated my narrative mental map.” Josh Swihart, founder and CEO of Zcash Open Development Lab, offered his own explanation in a post titled “Never Again.” He described the Orchard bug as a failure in one of the system’s rules: the rule was written loosely enough that it could accept false information and still pass. In other words, the problem was not a privacy leak but a soundness failure in the proof system, the kind of issue that can undermine confidence in whether invalid value creation was possible inside a shielded pool. The emergency fix required coordinated network action rather than a simple wallet or application patch. ZODL and the broader Zcash ecosystem moved to disable Orchard actions temporarily and then restore them with a corrected circuit. The remediation may have closed the vulnerability, but for a privacy asset, the reputational damage came from the residual uncertainty: no evidence of counterfeiting is not the same as a cryptographic proof that counterfeiting never occurred. Related Reading: Zcash (ZEC) Soars To Six-Month Highs After 110% Rally – Can It Break The $700 Barrier? Hayes said the roughly 30% selloff in ZEC forced him to reassess the position. “The 30% dump made me rethink, and I had to take profit on the entire position,” he wrote. His stated logic was not that exploitation had happened, but that the privacy thesis he had attached to ZEC required a higher standard than probabilistic reassurance. The sale completes a rapid reversal from Hayes’ May 22 “Holy Trinity” call, when he grouped HYPE, ZEC and NEAR as a three-token basket. “When you are in position, trading is easy, sit back and watch number go up,” he wrote at the time, naming “HYPE, ZEC, NEAR the holy trinity.” HYPE represented the on-chain derivatives and protocol revenue trade, NEAR the AI and chain-abstraction angle, and ZEC the privacy leg. A day before the ZEC sale, Hayes had already said he dumped his entire HYPE and NEAR positions, citing higher energy prices, looming major AI IPOs and political risk around artificial intelligence as reasons for taking profit. Still, Hayes did not close the door on Zcash. “We will consistently re-evaluate our thinking and if my assumptions are proven incorrect, will rebuy, hopefully at lower prices,” he wrote. “Privacy is priceless and I have no issue eating humble pie and rebuying much higher.” For now, Worldcoin is the remaining public expression of his AI-linked rotation. “We still hold WLD and are excited for Lord Elon to pump our bags,” Hayes added. That follows his recent public call for a WLD bull market, linking the move to renewed speculation around AI assets and an OpenAI IPO. At press time, ZEC was down more than 45% in 24 hours. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Zcash lost more than $5 billion in market value after its developers, using Anthropic's Claude AI, discovered a long-running flaw in one of its privacy systems that could have enabled counterfeit tokens to be created without easy detection. In response to this disclosure, data from CryptoSlate showed that ZEC fell more than 50% to as low as $255 […]
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Zcash has patched a dangerous vulnerability in its privacy-focused infrastructure that could have enabled double-spending, deploying an emergency network upgrade to prevent exploitation. Related Reading: Ethereum Ready For The ‘Final Dip’? Analysts Call For New Lows As Price Retests $1,900 Zcash Fixes Critical Bug With Emergency Upgrade On Wednesday, the Zcash Foundation revealed that developers had fixed a serious vulnerability in its Orchard shielded pool, which could have allowed invalid state transitions, potentially enabling double-spending within the pool. According to the report, Zcash researcher Taylor Hornby, who is conducting an ongoing protocol audit on behalf of Shielded Labs, discovered a critical soundness vulnerability in the Orchard zero-knowledge proof circuit on May 29 and disclosed the issue to Zcash Open Development Lab (ZODL) core engineers that same day. “A soundness vulnerability is one that could allow the system to accept something it should reject. In this case, successful exploitation could have allowed the Orchard pool to accept invalid state transitions, potentially permitting double-spending of funds within Orchard, though with no ability to inflate the total ZEC supply, which is protected by Zcash’s turnstile mechanism,” the foundation explained. After identifying the vulnerability, Zcash developers, miners, and infrastructure operators coordinated privately to prepare a fix, keeping details confidential to avoid potential exploits. The first soft fork attempt faced technical challenges, but engineers quickly released a revised patch that successfully activated on June 2, temporarily disabling Orchard-related transactions. On June 3, the network completed a full hard fork upgrade, NU6.2, restoring Orchard functionality with the corrected code and permanently resolving the vulnerability. The Foundation said there was no evidence that the bug was exploited, as no unauthorized value creation was detected. In addition, they affirmed that the total ZEC supply remains safe and the issue did not affect the privacy of funds held in any Zcash pool. ZEC Holds Key Support Amid Network Confusion Following the upgrade, news that the network was offline circulated on social media, creating confusion among community members. Some reports claimed that Zcash had failed to produce blocks for over four hours. However, Mert Mumtaz, CEO of Solana infrastructure firm Helius, dismissed these reports, affirming that the network was never down and that explorer apps were connected to a bad node. In a series of X posts, Zcash blockchain explorer CipherScan confirmed the issue, explaining that its nodes were upgrading to support the recent NU6.2 network upgrade. “What actually happened: Zcash pushed a coordinated network upgrade (NU6.2) that required all node operators to update. During that transition, some block explorers, including ours, showed stale or missing data while we upgraded,” the post stated. “That’s the explorer being out of sync, not the blockchain being broken. Important distinction. (…) Block explorers are just readers. They pull data from a node, parse it, and display it. If the node is upgrading or resyncing, the explorer goes stale,” the explorer continued. Related Reading: Arthur Hayes Bets $100K On Hyperliquid, Says HYPE Will Beat Solana By Year‑End Despite the confusion, ZEC’s price continued to defy the broader market trend, rallying over 8% intraday to retest the $636 around on Wednesday morning. Notably, the cryptocurrency has soared roughly 20% over the past two days while most of the market bled. After failing to reclaim the $630 local resistance, the cryptocurrency dropped toward the $600 support, briefly falling below it before bouncing again. As of this writing, Zcash trades at $612, a 9.5% increase in the weekly timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
Arthur Hayes said NEAR and Zcash form the core of his privacy trade, arguing that crypto markets are beginning to reprice assets tied to private value transfer, AI-era sovereignty and real protocol economics. In an interview with The Rollup, the Maelstrom CIO said NEAR could offer “20x potential,” while Zcash may have “5x potential” over the next year, framing both assets as part of a broader reaction to “big tech, big government” and AI-driven surveillance. Hayes’ thesis starts with a macro shift. Earlier this year, he said he had been cautious because Bitcoin appeared to be pricing in an “AI deflationary credit event,” with monetary authorities unlikely to print aggressively until a crisis forced their hand. That changed, he argued, after the Iran conflict crystallized a liquidity-positive setup for markets. “Governments print money to win war. AI is part of war. The AI capex will be underwritten, both in the United States and China, by the governments,” Hayes said. He added that governments in the US, China and Europe would likely fund a wartime economy and AI infrastructure through monetary expansion, with some of that liquidity leaking into Bitcoin and selected crypto assets. Why NEAR And Zcash? Hayes’ strongest comments were reserved for privacy. He once again confirmed Zcash as his “second biggest bag” and said the asset had become investable again after earlier concerns around its trusted setup, issuance profile and developer subsidy faded into the background. The old Zcash trade, in his view, was too early and too messy. The new one is cleaner, more liquid and more relevant to the current political and technological moment. Related Reading: Zcash (ZEC) Soars To Six-Month Highs After 110% Rally – Can It Break The $700 Barrier? “There’s nothing wrong with wanting to have private money over the internet,” Hayes said. “And that’s what Zcash represents, that’s what Monero represents. And as we are learning the ability for big tech, big government and AI to essentially know everything about us and to trace everything that’s going on in our lives, to have pure, just cryptographically proven privacy with money is going to be super needed.” Hayes said his renewed interest in Zcash accelerated after a conversation with Naval Ravikant during Tokyo 2049. According to Hayes, Ravikant argued that Monero’s ring signatures were weaker than commonly assumed and referenced a Japanese law-enforcement case involving deanonymization. Hayes said he bought $1 million of Zcash “right then and there,” then continued accumulating as he researched the thesis further. The price target came as Hayes connected Zcash to NEAR’s role in making private value transfer more usable across assets and chains. He argued that shielded Zcash alone is important, but the larger opportunity comes when users can move from shielded ZEC into other assets, including stablecoins, through NEAR Intents. “Within the ZODL app, I can now send any crypto asset I want to anyone across the Internet in an anonymous way. From Shielded Zcash, using Near Intents. Now I’m into, you know, USDT on Tron and I’ve sent it to whoever I’m going to send it to in an anonymous fashion. That’s huge,” Hayes said. That is where his upside estimates diverge. Hayes said Zcash remains the primary expression of the privacy trade, but NEAR may offer the more asymmetric setup because it is tied to the execution layer behind confidential transfers. “I think Near has a 20x potential where, you know, Zcash might have a 5x potential over the next year or something like that,” he said. “So you scale the capital that you allocate accordingly to the risk.” Related Reading: Why Multicoin Is Betting Big On Zcash: Tushar Jain Lays Out The Bull Case NEAR co-founder Illia Polosukhin reinforced the economic side of that argument, saying NEAR Intents is approaching $20 billion in lifetime volume, with $18.9 billion cited during the interview, and has generated $33 million in fees. He said NEAR takes a fee from every transaction and uses it to buy back NEAR, while the ecosystem has already halved inflation and may push for further reductions as revenue grows. Hayes also tied the trade to token structure. He said NEAR benefits from being “fully diluted,” avoiding the large overhang of venture allocations that still weighs on many L1 assets. For a token expected to move in an upmarket, he argued, that clean supply profile matters. The risk, in Hayes’ own framing, is macro. He said he intends to hold until the broader liquidity backdrop changes, but warned that reduced government support for AI capex or a worsening war scenario would alter the setup. For now, he sees privacy, AI-linked sovereignty and exchange revenue as the trades with the clearest market validation. At press time, Zcash traded at $624. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Multicoin Capital co-founder Tushar Jain said the firm’s recent investment in Zcash was driven by a convergence of stronger market traction, improving infrastructure and a broader return to crypto’s privacy roots. Speaking on the latest Bankless podcast released May 19, Jain argued that Zcash has moved from a “left for dead” asset into a credible private store-of-value contender. Jain said Multicoin had watched Zcash for years without being convinced. The asset, in his view, had long suffered from weak attention, poor usability and limited evidence that privacy demand could translate into durable market interest. That changed after Zcash rallied sharply, corrected, and still retained both community intensity and a higher market baseline than in prior years. Multicoin’s Zcash Thesis “When I see something like that, I always pause and wonder, is this some manufactured thing? Is it sustainable? Is there a real groundswell of support here?” Jain said. “And when you see the price do what it did last year and then what we saw was it pulled back very significantly. As I saw it pull back, what I saw was one, the people who were talking about it were still excited about it. Two, the place where it pulled back on the chart actually demonstrated much better attention and strength than where the thing was trading for years and years before that.” That, Jain said, helped get Multicoin “over the line.” The firm interpreted the correction not as a failed narrative, but as a stress test. Zcash, he argued, retained the “key people” supporting it and showed that interest in the asset was not merely a short-lived speculative burst. Related Reading: Zcash, Bitcoin, And Solana—Catalysts Ahead That Could Fuel Another Upswing Before May End The discussion, which also featured Helius Labs founder Mert Mumtaz, framed Zcash as a possible answer to what both guests described as crypto’s unfinished privacy problem. Mumtaz, who said he began looking more seriously at Zcash in early 2024 after reviewing its scaling plans, argued that privacy had become “the major thing that crypto has forgotten,” particularly as institutional adoption pushes more financial activity onto transparent rails. Jain’s core investment thesis is not that Zcash becomes a high-throughput payments network. He described the asset’s real market as the store-of-value sector, where social coordination, brand and perceived monetary properties matter as much as raw technical capacity. In that context, he argued, Zcash is beginning to form a Schelling point around private wealth storage. “The market that Zcash is competing for is the store of value market,” Jain said. “Like that’s the job that it does is it’s for storing value and it is far more scalable than Bitcoin and so enables more transactions and such. But the core value prop is store of value.” Jain compared that dynamic to Bitcoin’s early reflexivity: more people treating an asset as a store of value makes it a stronger candidate for that role. He said Zcash now has the potential to benefit from a similar feedback loop, particularly if it remains the leading privacy asset by market cap, volume, attention and other relevant metrics. Related Reading: Arthur Hayes Says Zcash Is His Largest Crypto Position Outside Bitcoin The guests also contrasted Zcash with Monero. Mumtaz argued that Monero’s ring-signature design relies on decoys, while Zcash’s shielded model offers a stronger cryptographic foundation. Jain emphasized a separate but related point: brand. In his telling, Zcash is positioned less as a tool for illicit use and more as “privacy for the normal person.” “Zcash is not for that,” Jain said, referring to Monero’s darker market associations. “Zcash is for the regular person who says, no, I care about my privacy, not because I’m doing anything illegal or I have anything to hide, but because I don’t need to reveal all of my financial transaction history to every single person with whom I interact.” That positioning, he argued, could make Zcash more legible to institutions and a broader group of users. The asset’s transparent mode may allow institutional exposure, while improved wallet infrastructure and decentralized access routes could push more activity into the shielded pool over time. The podcast also addressed the bear case directly: investors have repeatedly overestimated demand for privacy, and prior privacy narratives have often ended poorly. Jain acknowledged that Zcash had previously been “hugely inflationary,” difficult to use, weakly marketed and dependent on centralized exchanges for acquisition. But he said the last 18 months changed the setup, citing better wallet infrastructure, more attention, and a macro backdrop that has made private stores of value more salient. Mumtaz added that upcoming catalysts could matter for adoption, including Ledger support for shielded ZEC, a rising shielded pool share of roughly 31% to 32%, planned block-time reductions from 75 seconds to 25 seconds, and further work on quantum resistance. At press time, ZEC traded at $584.82. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
The ZEC technical structure continues to strengthen after breaking above a key macro resistance level that had capped price action for an extended period. Following a successful breakout above a long-standing descending trendline, the asset has continued to hold above key levels that previously served as strong resistance throughout the broader downtrend. The move signals a potential shift in momentum as bullish pressure gradually returns to the chart. How Zcash Momentum Continues Building After Technical Breakout Zcash is showing signs of renewed technical strength after completing a significant compound breakout above both a long-standing descending trendline and the critical $540 macro resistance zone. Technical analyst Ardi mentioned on X that the asset has also closed above the previous lower high near $560 for the first time since the broader shift in market structure. Related Reading: Here’s Why The ZCash (ZEC) Price Rallied Above $500 Again This level now becomes a critical pivot, whether ZEC can hold its reclaimed level as support and build momentum toward the next major resistance region between $590 and $600. However, if ZEC fails to maintain this structure, it would quickly shift price back toward the $540 level as the next key support zone. Ardi highlighted that the cleanest risk setup and reward remain at the extremes, which is either a confirmed breakout above $640 highs or a retest into $540 support with a clear invalidation below. The current range of ZEC is likely to remain choppy, with price action lacking clear direction between key levels. Ardi advises that with further consolidation still possible before a decisive breakout, the more strategic approach is to avoid chasing price in the middle of the range. Instead, the better trade structure is to position longs at support. Will Zcash Rally Gains Strength Following Clean Breakout Confirmation Zcash has continued to strengthen technically after successfully confirming a breakout from a well-defined daily bull flag continuation pattern, signaling a sustained upside bullish continuation momentum following weeks of consolidation. Related Reading: Zcash (ZEC) Approaches Critical Breakout Zone With Bulls Targeting Higher Levels After Recent Surge According to a post on X from an analyst known as Team LAMBO, the setup move inside the premium from the $510 breakout zone toward $560 has already delivered nearly 20% expansion from the previously identified local bottom, reinforcing growing optimism around the ZEC higher timeframe structure. Despite this move, the broader structure still appears incomplete. As long as the price holds above the breakout region, the bullish bias will remain intact, with momentum favoring further upside. From a higher timeframe (HTF) perspective, the next key expansion targets are positioned around $625, followed by the $680 resistance zone, where a significant pool of liquidity is expected to be situated. Featured image from Medium, chart from Tradingview.com
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has suggested that Zcash (ZEC) could eventually reach 10% of Bitcoin’s market capitalization, a long-term bullish thesis on privacy coins rather than a near-term price forecast. Based on ZEC’s circulating supply of around 16 million tokens, that scenario would imply a price in the high four-figure range, roughly $8,000–$10,000, depending on Bitcoin’s valuation. A Chart Pattern Worth Watching On the technical side, traders point to a possible cup-and-handle pattern, but this is a subjective chart formation with no guarantee of outcome. Resistance is often cited around $625–$650, with some speculative projections suggesting a move toward $1,000, though this depends heavily on broader market conditions and is not a confirmed target. The target also lines up with ZEC’s 1.618 Fibonacci extension, drawn from a $745 swing high down to a $185 swing low. Privacy Coins Pull Ahead ZEC is not moving alone. Monero and Dash, both privacy-focused tokens, have also posted gains over the past month. But Zcash leads the pack. Reports indicate the coin climbed more than 80% in 30 days while the total crypto market cap barely moved — up just 0.2% over the same stretch. $ZEC update This thing is running its own bull market rn… gg I closed my short. Especially with $BTC sitting on support around $76k Even a small pump in Bitcoin makes ZEC go absolutely stupid right now https://t.co/xLs6ficv7l pic.twitter.com/obAhbnXqfp — SnorlaX お金 (@SnorlaxOnChain) May 18, 2026 In the past three days alone, ZEC added 18% as the broader market slipped 3%. That split has prompted some traders to say Zcash is running its own bull market. Growing demand for financial privacy appears to be the main force behind the move, pulling fresh interest into a coin that had been largely overlooked for years. Related Reading: XRP Will Go ‘Higher, Much Higher,’ Analyst Says, Betting On Explosive Breakout Institutional Interest Adds Fuel Earlier in May, hedge fund Multicoin Capital disclosed it holds a position in ZEC. Around the same time, Robinhood added the token to its platform, opening it up to a wider pool of retail investors. Both developments landed at a time when the privacy narrative was already building. Hayes’s comment added another layer. His estimate was speculative — based on a market cap comparison to Bitcoin — but it drew attention and, according to data, ZEC’s value in Bitcoin terms has risen about 20.5% since he made the remark. Whether the cup-and-handle plays out or not, the coin has already proven it can move on its own terms. Featured image from Quicknode, chart from TradingView
Zcash (ZEC), the market’s leading privacy-focused cryptocurrency, has delivered a massive performance, with year-to-date data showing ZEC is up more than 1,200%, dramatically outpacing major coins. Cardano (ADA), by contrast, has been in a very different posture, with the same period showing a roughly 66% retrace. The divergence has been so pronounced that Zcash briefly surpassed Cardano by market capitalization, pushing ZEC to become the 11th-largest cryptocurrency on May 10—an inflection point that has led at least one market expert to suggest ZEC could ultimately flip ADA in that key ranking. Why Zcash Is Catching Investors’ Eye Market expert Alex Carchidi highlighted several drivers in a new report, pointing to big accumulation as one of the most important themes. For example, Multicoin Capital disclosed in early May that it has been building a significant position in Zcash since February. That kind of accumulation is not limited to one firm. Cypherpunk Technologies has also accumulated an additional 295,000 Zcash tokens, representing about 1.7% of the coin’s circulating supply. Related Reading: Hyperliquid (HYPE) To $100? Expert Forecasts Major Rise Before Summer 2027 Carchidi noted that the network’s privacy usage appears to be rising in parallel with price. Approximately 30% of Zcash’s circulating supply is now held in shielded addresses. These addresses rely on specialized cryptography to encrypt transaction details, preserving user privacy—a capability that standard public blockchains don’t offer in the same way. Importantly, this share has nearly quadrupled over the past two years, a trend Carchidi says strongly suggests that adoption and usage are increasing alongside ZEC’s market momentum. Cardano Lacks Clear Path To Breakout At the same time, the expert argues the comparison with Cardano is different in almost every way besides market cap. Carchidi pointed out that Cardano is built as a smart-contract blockchain and is designed to compete in decentralized finance (DeFi), yet its traction has been comparatively limited. As of May 12, Cardano reportedly had only about $137 million in total value locked (TVL), placing it 26th among all blockchains. That figure also reflects a notable decline from roughly $410 million a year earlier. Carchidi’s view is that Cardano is in what he described as an “awkward valley.” He argues it is too slow and relatively expensive to compete effectively with high-speed, high-throughput chains such as Solana (SOL). At the same time, even though Cardano is cheaper than the blockchain it was originally created to beat—Ethereum (ETH)—it remains slightly slower and does not have nearly the same ecosystem scale. From this angle, the expert sees the market’s behavior as reflecting a widening gap in conviction narratives. According to Carchidi, institutional capital tends to favor stories that can stand up to scrutiny. He claims Zcash has such a narrative, while Cardano’s story has largely been “wait for better times” for the past several years—without enough clarity on how the better times will be delivered by what the developers are building right now. What Could Drive ADA Higher? Carchidi suggested that a potential approval for a spot Cardano exchange-traded fund (ETF) in the second half of 2026 might be the clearest near-term reason to hold. Even so, he doubts that investors would be eager to hold Cardano through an ETF if there is not a strong investment thesis supporting purchases at current levels. Related Reading: Coinbase CEO Unpacks The Crypto Bill’s Biggest Promise For The US Financial System Ultimately, Carchidi’s conclusion is direct. He argues that, given the lack of clear catalysts and the uncertainty around what would drive recovery, it may make sense to sell Cardano. Zcash, on the other hand, could be attractive if a portfolio needs exposure to privacy coins or scarce stores of value. At the time of writing, ZEC was trading at around $545, having recorded additional gains of 63% in just two weeks. During the same period, ADA recorded gains of 9%, trading at around $0.27. Featured image created with OpenArt, chart from TradingView.com
Arthur Hayes has put Zcash at the center of his crypto thesis, saying in an interview with Unchained founder Laura Shin that ZEC is now “probably my largest position outside of Bitcoin.” The BitMEX co-founder framed the trade as a bet on rising demand for financial privacy as AI, Big Tech and governments make public-chain activity easier to analyze. Hayes said he views Zcash as the strongest privacy asset in crypto, while acknowledging that the debate between Zcash, Monero and other privacy coins remains unsettled. “I think Zcash is the best,” Hayes said. He added that he is “not a cryptographer,” but said his view was shaped by reading competing arguments and speaking with developers working directly on privacy systems. His argument was not that Bitcoin should become fully private. Hayes said Bitcoin’s transparent ledger still has advantages for accountability, but argued that transparency comes with a growing trade-off as surveillance tools improve. “With AI, big tech and big government, it’s very trivial to de-anonymize transactions,” he said. Related Reading: Zcash Hits New YTD High As Multicoin Discloses ZEC Bet That, in Hayes’ view, creates room for a separate privacy asset to accrue value alongside Bitcoin rather than inside it. He described Zcash and Monero as trading at very low relative values versus BTC and called the setup asymmetric if privacy demand becomes more obvious to investors. The catalyst, as he sees it, is not merely regulatory pressure or user preference, but the exponential improvement of AI systems that can link activity across public data sets. Arthur on why the Zcash and NEAR integration is the quietly building mechanism that flips NEAR from inflationary to deflationary “Shielded Zcash lets you swap and send any coin, USDT on Tron, Bitcoin, anything, and that transaction will not point back to you. Completely… https://t.co/AOWKNsDRbc pic.twitter.com/tytoAgM5q0 — Laura Shin (@laurashin) May 12, 2026 Hayes Connects Zcash And NEAR In Latest Essay Hayes extended that thesis in his latest Crypto Trader Digest essay, “The Butterfly Touch,” dated May 11 on his Substack. In the essay, Hayes argued that rising dollar and yuan liquidity, driven by AI infrastructure spending, geopolitical conflict and renewed credit creation, has reopened the risk-on window for crypto markets. He said Bitcoin bottomed earlier this year at $60,000 and argued that a move back to $126,000 is a “foregone conclusion” if fiat liquidity keeps expanding. Related Reading: Zcash Is Crypto’s Most Mispriced Asset, Cypherpunk CIO Says The essay’s altcoin section was more explicit. Hayes wrote that it is “time to shitcoin,” saying Hyperliquid and Zcash are already large enough positions for Maelstrom, while NEAR is his “next favorite” trade. He said his next essay would lay out why the “privacy narrative” combined with Near Intents could create a “positive cash flow situation” for the protocol. That framing links Zcash and NEAR under a broader privacy-and-utility thesis. Zcash represents Hayes’ preferred pure-play privacy exposure, while NEAR appears to be the next asset he wants to connect to that theme through intent-based execution and potential protocol-level cash flow. He argued that such a setup could help reverse NEAR’s weak token performance and potentially push it back toward older cycle highs. For Zcash, Hayes’ case is more direct. He said privacy is likely to become more valuable as public blockchains become easier to interrogate with increasingly capable AI systems. “People want that privacy,” he said. “And there will be a private alternative.” At press time, Zcash traded at $541.75. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Zcash is rapidly shedding its historical reputation as a niche tool for digital anonymity, transforming instead into a high-stakes institutional hedge against global financial surveillance. According to CryptoSlate's data, the privacy-centric cryptocurrency rocketed roughly 40% in a single trading session on Wednesday, briefly eclipsing the $600 mark to hit a local peak of $603 before […]
The post Zcash just exploded 40% – and the privacy coin rally is no longer just a crypto-native trade appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Zcash extended one of the strongest recent moves in the large-cap segment, setting a new year-to-date high of $590 after rallying more than 80% in six days. The move came as Multicoin Capital co-founder Tushar Jain disclosed that the firm has built a “significant position” in ZEC since February, framing the trade as a bet on renewed demand for private, seizure-resistant assets. The disclosure added a high-profile institutional voice to a rally that had already pushed ZEC through key technical levels. Crypto analyst Cheds Trading posted a ZEC chart and described the move as “Strong continuation,” highlighting a breakout structure after ZEC reclaimed a major resistance area on the daily chart. Multicoin Frames ZEC As A Privacy Trade Jain’s thesis centered less on short-term market structure and more on the role of privacy assets in a changing political environment. In a thread on X, he said Multicoin had accumulated a sizable ZEC position over recent months and argued that Zcash represents a return to the original privacy-oriented ideals of crypto. Related Reading: Zcash Breaks Out With 34% Surge—Is $440 The Next Target? “Multicoin has built a significant position in $ZEC since February,” Jain wrote. “Zcash is a return to the cypherpunk ideals crypto was founded on.” He then connected the investment case to concerns around wealth taxes and asset seizure. Jain pointed to proposed policy developments in California as a warning sign and argued that, if governments become more aggressive in targeting private wealth, demand could increase for assets designed to protect financial confidentiality. “California’s proposed wealth seizures are a warning,” Jain wrote. “As the political trend to seize private wealth continues to grow, people and institutions will increasingly seek private assets to protect themselves.” The argument is notable because it distinguishes between censorship resistance and financial privacy. Jain acknowledged Bitcoin’s core strength as an asset that cannot be easily frozen or blocked at the protocol level, but argued that transparent holdings still create a vulnerability if governments can identify owners and target visible balances. Related Reading: Zcash Is Crypto’s Most Mispriced Asset, Cypherpunk CIO Says “Bitcoin is censorship-resistant, no one can freeze your BTC or stop you from using it,” he wrote. “But that doesn’t stop the state from seizing known holdings through wealth taxes.” ZEC Breakout Draws Technical Attention On Wednesday, ZEC climbed to $549, marking a new YTD high, after a six-day surge of 66%. The below daily Binance chart shows ZEC moving decisively above a highlighted resistance zone, with price extending toward the upper range after a strong green daily candle. Cheds’ “Strong continuation” comment captured the technical read from momentum-focused traders: ZEC had not merely bounced from a local base, but appeared to have broken above a prior supply area that had capped earlier advances. That technical backdrop matters because ZEC has historically been a high-beta asset during privacy-coin rotations. When it moves, it often does so quickly. In this case, the price action was reinforced by a clear narrative catalyst: a known crypto investment firm publicly backing the asset as an expression of the privacy thesis. Jain’s final point was the clearest expression of Multicoin’s investment logic. He argued that demand for private, censorship- and seizure-resistant assets is not theoretical but increasingly practical. “We believe that truly private, censorship and seizure resistant assets have clear product-market fit and demand is accelerating,” Jain wrote. “We believe $ZEC is the cleanest way to express this thesis in public markets.” At press time, ZEC traded at $581. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
A cryptocurrency analyst has pointed out how Zcash (ZEC) has broken above the resistance level of a Descending Triangle with its latest surge. Zcash Is Breaking Out Of A Descending Triangle In a new post on X, analyst Ali Martinez has talked about a technical analysis (TA) pattern that Zcash could be breaking out of right now. The pattern in question is a Descending Triangle, which is a type of Triangle. Related Reading: Bitcoin Surge To $72,000 Unleashes $470M Squeeze On Crypto Bears Triangles form whenever an asset observes consolidation between two converging trendlines. Like with other consolidation patterns in TA, the upper line of the channel is likely to be a source of resistance, while the lower one that of support. In the case of a Descending Triangle, the lower trendline is parallel to the time-axis. Thus, as the asset travels through this channel, its range shrinks with time to a net downside. Similar to the Descending Triangle, there is also the Ascending Triangle in TA, involving the opposite setup. In this pattern, the range goes up instead. Now, here is the chart shared by Martinez that shows the Descending Triangle pattern potentially forming in the 1-day ZEC price: As displayed in the above graph, Zcash was moving inside this channel earlier, but the sharp price surge over the past week has meant that it has escaped above the upper level. Currently, it’s still uncertain whether the breakout will sustain, but in case it does, it could prove to be a bullish signal. This is due to the reason that consolidation channel breakouts are generally treated as continuation signals. Thus, if the asset breaks resistance, it’s considered to be headed in the bullish direction, while it falling below support can foreshadow further bearish action. Based on the latest ZEC breakout, Martinez has put the $440 target. It now remains to be seen whether the breakout will hold and if Zcash will see a rally to this level. Related Reading: Cardano Whale Count Climbs To 4-Month High Amid Steady Accumulation ZEC isn’t the only altcoin that has seen the formation of a Descending Triangle. As the analyst has highlighted in another X post, DOGE has been stuck inside such a pattern on the 4-hour timeframe. From the chart, it’s apparent that the 4-hour Dogecoin price has been fast approaching the apex of the triangle, suggesting a breakout could occur soon. Based on the height of the channel, Martinez has noted that a 29% move could follow an escape from the pattern. ZEC Price Zcash has surged to the $316 mark following its sharp rally over the last few days. Featured image from Dall-E, chart from TradingView.com
Grayscale is making a case for Zcash as the most credible challenger to Bitcoin’s dominance in the digital currency segment, arguing that a relatively small shift in market share could translate into outsized upside for the privacy-focused asset. In a March 18 research note, Zach Pandl, Grayscale’s Head of Research, frames the opportunity in stark terms. Bitcoin still accounts for roughly 90% of the “Currencies Crypto Sector,” a segment the firm estimates at $1.6 trillion across fifteen assets. Zcash, by comparison, represents just a fraction of that total. But Pandl suggests that the gap may not be structural. Related Reading: Zcash Is Crypto’s Most Mispriced Asset, Cypherpunk CIO Says “Bitcoin was the first decentralized digital currency and is still by far the largest as measured by market capitalization,” he writes. “But there are other blockchains with a ‘digital currency’ use case.” Within that competitive set, Grayscale sees Zcash as uniquely positioned to gain ground over time. Grayscale Says Zcash Has 18x Upside The core of the thesis rests on a capability Bitcoin fundamentally lacks. While Bitcoin transactions remain fully transparent on a public ledger, Zcash offers shielded transactions that obscure the sender, receiver, and transaction amount. Pandl argues this distinction is not merely technical, but market-defining. “Zcash offers shielded transactions that hide senders, receivers, and balances,” he notes, adding that “privacy will be essential, in our view, for certain types of users and transactions, and Bitcoin cannot meet this demand.” The implication is clear: if demand for private, censorship-resistant payments increases, whether driven by individuals, institutions, or specific jurisdictions, Zcash operates in a segment where Bitcoin is structurally limited. Rather than competing head-on across all use cases, it targets a subset of transactions where transparency becomes a constraint rather than a feature. Grayscale’s second pillar is less about design and more about trajectory. Zcash, now approaching a decade in operation, is described as entering a new phase marked by rising adoption of its privacy features and renewed capital inflows. “Zcash is almost 10 years old but seems to be entering a new chapter,” Pandl writes. “Use of its shielding technology is picking up, underscoring market interest for privacy-preserving digital currencies. And new capital is entering the ecosystem to support wallet development and Zcash mining.” The valuation argument follows directly from those two dynamics. Zcash’s ZEC token currently sits at around $4 billion in market capitalization, representing approximately 0.3% of the broader digital currency segment. Related Reading: Zcash Is The Last Possible 1000x In Crypto, Venture Capitalist Says Grayscale’s scenario is deliberately conservative in its assumptions but aggressive in its implications. If Zcash were to capture just 5% of that same segment, its valuation would increase roughly eighteenfold. The math hinges less on absolute growth in crypto markets and more on relative positioning within the existing category. Pandl is explicit about the trade-offs. Zcash, he notes, is “smaller and more volatile than Bitcoin and therefore has a higher risk profile.” The upside case is tied to a reallocation of market share, not a guaranteed expansion of demand. That view is not isolated. Several prominent figures have recently outlined similarly asymmetric scenarios for Zcash. Cypherpunk Technologies CIO Will McEvoy has described Zcash as “crypto’s most mispriced asset,” while Alliance DAO co-founder Qiao Wang has called ZEC the “last 1000x in crypto.” BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes has forecast ZEC reaching $1,000 as a “first stop,” with a longer-term target of $10,000. At press time, ZEC traded at $232.93. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Cypherpunk Technologies CIO Will McEvoy is making a blunt case for Zcash: the market is undervaluing ZEC because it still has no coherent way to price privacy. In a thread published Tuesday, McEvoy argued that the discount is especially striking as AI-driven surveillance expands and demand for financial confidentiality becomes easier to justify. McEvoy’s core claim is simple. “Zcash is the most mispriced asset in crypto because privacy is the most mispriced asset in society,” he wrote. “The market has no real framework for valuing privacy so it gets ignored. The upside is asymmetric nonetheless.” Why Zcash Could Be ‘Mispriced’ He built that argument around relative size. At the time of his post, McEvoy put ZEC at $263 with a $4.4 billion market capitalization. Against that, he listed Bitcoin at $1.45 trillion, gold at $34.8 trillion, offshore wealth at $11.3 trillion, stablecoins at $312 billion, and Monero at $6.8 billion. The point was less about direct comparability than scale: by McEvoy’s framing, Zcash remains “just a rounding error” in every market it could plausibly intersect. Related Reading: Zcash Is The Last Possible 1000x In Crypto, Venture Capitalist Says That thesis runs through each benchmark. Relative to Bitcoin, McEvoy argued Zcash is still tiny enough that even a modest re-rating would imply a large move. He wrote that if ZEC reached 0.5% of Bitcoin’s value, it would imply a price of $446, or about 1.7 times higher. At 1%, the implied price rises to $891; at 2%, $1,782; and at 5%, $4,456. His summary line was as compressed as the valuation case itself: “Zcash is encrypted Bitcoin.” The offshore wealth comparison is more pointed. McEvoy described privacy not as a niche preference, but as something people have historically paid for at scale. “There is $11.3 trillion in offshore wealth,” he wrote. “People pay a premium for privacy. They always have. They always will.” From there, he argued that if Zcash captured 0.1% of that market, the implied price would be $680. At 0.5%, it would be $3,402, and at 1%, $6,804. “Zcash is a Swiss bank account in your pocket,” he added. His gold comparison extends the same logic into a more traditional store-of-value frame. “Gold is private. You can hold it. No one knows how much you have,” McEvoy wrote. “Zcash has the same properties but it’s digital, portable, and programmable.” On that basis, he modeled ZEC at $1,048 if it reached 0.05% of gold’s value, $2,095 at 0.1%, and $10,477 at 0.5%. Related Reading: Zcash Surges Post-SEC Probe: Is a Fresh Yearly High on the Horizon? McEvoy also positioned Zcash as a response to the visibility built into much of crypto’s existing payment infrastructure. “Stablecoin transactions are tracked. Wallets are surveilled,” he wrote, before laying out price scenarios based on ZEC reaching 5%, 10%, or 25% of the stablecoin market. Those levels implied prices of $939, $1,877, and $4,692, respectively. He also compared Zcash to Monero. McEvoy argued Zcash offers “stronger cryptography, optional transparency for compliance, and better scalability,” then laid out a simple relative-value table: parity with Monero would imply $410 for ZEC, double Monero’s value would imply $819, and five times Monero’s value would imply $2,047. “The privacy coin throne is not yet claimed,” he wrote. His closing point tied the whole thesis to a broader technological shift. “Artificial intelligence is the attack. Zcash is the defense,” McEvoy said. “AI decodes all the data. Zcash encrypts all the data. AI is the surveillance state. Zcash is the sovereign individual. As AI advances, privacy becomes more valuable, not less.” At press time, ZEC traded at $244.77. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Alliance DAO co-founder Qiao Wang claims Zcash may be “the last possible 1000x in crypto.” His argument is not framed around a near-term catalyst, but around a long-duration macro and technology thesis in which privacy becomes the final major unresolved market gap in digital assets. Why Zcash Could Be The Last 1000x Posting on X on March 15, Wang wrote, “continue to believe that Zcash is the last possible 1000x in crypto. Gov overreach, money printing, rise in socialism, quantum. All massive multi-decade tailwinds.” He paired that with an investment posture that sounded more like a Bitcoin-style conviction trade than a tactical altcoin call: “as with btc, don’t trade it. Accumulate during periods of apathy and hold it for 10-20yrs.” continue to believe that zcash is the last possible 1000x in crypto. gov overreach, money printing, rise in socialism, quantum. all massive multi-decade tailwinds. as with btc, don’t trade it. accumulate during periods of apathy and hold it for 10-20yrs. — qw (@QwQiao) March 15, 2026 The core of Wang’s reasoning is scale. In a follow-up post, he argued that “there’s still lots of possible 10x’s and maybe 100x’s, but a 1000x requires an extraordinarily large tam.” In other words, the bar for that kind of return is not just technical novelty or strong narrative. It requires a market large enough to absorb a multi-decade re-rating. Related Reading: Arthur Hayes Bets On MSTR, Metaplanet And Zcash As Bitcoin Liquidity Turns That idea was quickly reinforced by others in the thread, most notably Helius Labs CEO Mert Mumtaz, who pointed back to a privacy thesis he published in November under the title, “The Last 1000x in Crypto: A Privacy Thesis.” His summary was blunt: “Bitcoin started with three problems: i) legitimacy, ii) programmability and scale, iii) privacy. Bitcoin solved i) by becoming a trillion dollar asset, Solana/Ethereum solved ii), and iii) is the last remaining piece.” Mumtaz’s broader argument is that crypto’s biggest order-of-magnitude gains historically came from solving foundational deficits in the original Bitcoin design. First came legitimacy, then programmability and scale. Privacy, in his view, is the remaining open branch. Related Reading: Zcash Foundation Investigation Closed: SEC Decision Sparks 12% Jump In ZEC Price He wrote that “improvements will continue to happen on this programmability/scale branch and the Bitcoin branch, but I’m not sure we’ll see another 1,000x improvement. That is to say, I think future improvements are marginal, not order of magnitude in scale.” By contrast, he argued, “the privacy branch is the last thing remaining for asymmetric upside.” Why Zcash rather than privacy tech in the abstract? That part of the conversation turned less on code and more on credibility. Awa Sun Yin, co-founder of Anoma and a board member at Shielded Labs, recounted a rumor that circulated “in the trenches” late last year: that someone influential enough to get a meeting with the US president had been moving through political circles arguing that Bitcoin and crypto lacked privacy because “holdings and balances were visible to everyone – and seizable,” and recommending Zcash instead. Awa said the key point was not whether the story was true. “What’s relevant is that when you read or hear this story, you have an easy time believing it,” Awa wrote. “Whereas the story wouldn’t be believable if the person were recommending Monero or any other privacy coin instead of Zcash.” At press time, Zcash traded at $231.59. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Foundry’s move could help diversify Zcash’s mining ecosystem, which has historically been concentrated among a small number of pools.
The capital will be used to expand development of the Zcash (ZEC) protocol and its privacy-focused self-custodial mobile wallet, Zodl.
The longtime bitcoin backer and founder of DCG said privacy coins represent an asymmetric bet today, similar to the early days of Bitcoin.
Zcash (ZEC) is back on investors’ radar after U.S. regulators ended a long-running investigation into the Zcash Foundation without enforcement. The decision removes a key source of uncertainty that had followed the privacy-focused cryptocurrency since 2023. Related Reading: XRP Price Is Approaching A Key Decision Zone, But Structure Is Still Firmly Bullish Markets reacted quickly, with ZEC posting double-digit gains in some sessions and stabilizing above the $400 level. While regulatory clarity has helped improve sentiment, questions around governance and long-term development remain. ZEC's price trends sideways after a violent move upwards on the daily chart. Source: ZECUSD on Tradingview SEC Closes Two-Year Zcash Investigation The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission confirmed it has concluded its review of the Zcash Foundation, which began with a subpoena issued on August 31, 2023. The inquiry focused on potential securities law concerns tied to Zcash’s funding model, governance structure, and token distribution. According to the foundation, the SEC does not intend to recommend enforcement action, fines, or operational changes. This outcome marks a notable shift for privacy-focused cryptocurrencies, which have often faced heightened regulatory scrutiny due to concerns about illicit use. The decision suggests that Zcash’s privacy features alone were not deemed sufficient grounds for action under existing securities laws. The closure also aligns with a broader trend of the SEC withdrawing from several high-profile crypto investigations in recent months under new leadership. For Zcash, the end of the probe removes a regulatory overhang that had weighed on investor confidence for nearly two years. Market Reaction and Price Projections Following the announcement, ZEC surged between 5% and 14% across major exchanges, briefly testing the $440–$450 resistance zone. Currently, the token is trading around $427–$442, holding above the $400 psychological support level. Technically, ZEC remains in a consolidation phase after falling from its January high near $535. Resistance is clustered around $450–$470, while support sits near $400, with a deeper floor around $350 if sentiment weakens. Some analysts point to a symmetrical triangle pattern on longer timeframes, often viewed as a continuation structure after strong rallies. A confirmed breakout above the upper trendline could open the door toward higher levels, including a potential retest of the $1,000 mark later in 2026. Governance Uncertainty Clouds the Outlook Despite the regulatory win, internal challenges persist. Earlier this month, the full development team at Electric Coin Company (ECC), which has led core Zcash development, resigned following a dispute with its nonprofit board. Former ECC leaders cited deteriorating working conditions and have since announced plans to launch a new privacy-focused wallet, cashZ, based on Zcash technology. Related Reading: Arthur Hayes Bets On MSTR, Metaplanet And Zcash As Bitcoin Liquidity Turns The Zcash Foundation has stated that network operations and protocol stability remain unaffected by the personnel changes. Still, the departures have raised concerns about governance stability, development continuity, and long-term coordination within the ecosystem. Cover image from ChatGPT, ZECUSD chart from Tradingview
Arthur Hayes is positioning for a 2026 liquidity rebound, arguing that Bitcoin’s weak 2025 wasn’t a referendum on “crypto narratives” so much as a straightforward dollar-credit story. In his latest essay, “Frowny Cloud,” the Maelstrom CIO says he is adding risk via Strategy (MSTR), Japan’s Metaplanet, and Zcash (ZEC) as he expects US dollar liquidity to inflect higher after a year in which Bitcoin lagged both gold and US tech stocks. Hayes frames 2025 as an awkward year for the standard cross-asset shorthand that treats Bitcoin as either digital gold or a high-beta proxy for US tech. In his telling, Bitcoin behaved “as expected” under tightening conditions, while gold and the Nasdaq 100 rose for different reasons despite falling dollar liquidity. Related Reading: Here’s Why Bitcoin Volatility Sparks Fresh Attention On MicroStrategy He argues gold’s bid is being driven by sovereign balance sheets rather than retail mania, rooted in distrust of US Treasury exposure after prior asset-freeze precedents. “If the US president steals your money, it’s an instant zero. Does it then matter what price you buy gold at?” he writes, casting central banks as price-insensitive buyers. On equities, Hayes leans into an industrial-policy interpretation of the AI trade. His claim is that the US and China have effectively treated “winning AI” as strategic, dulling the usual market discipline and helping explain why the Nasdaq decoupled from his dollar-liquidity index in 2025. That divergence matters because it sets up his core takeaway for 2026: Bitcoin needs expanding dollar liquidity to regain momentum. “Bitcoin and the Nasdaq rise when dollar liquidity expands. The only problem is the recent divergence,” Hayes writes, before returning to the “vicissitudes of dollar liquidity” as the primary driver he wants to track. The Three-Pillar Liquidity Pitch Hayes’ 2026 outlook hinges on a sharp rebound in dollar credit creation. He cites three channels: a growing Fed balance sheet via Reserve Management Purchases (RMP), commercial-bank lending into “strategic industries,” and lower mortgage rates catalyzed by policy-driven demand for mortgage-backed securities. In his account, quantitative tightening faded as a dominant headwind in late 2025, with QT ending in December and RMP beginning as a new, steady buyer. He claims RMP “at a minimum” expands the balance sheet by $40 billion per month, and expects that pace to rise as government funding needs increase. The second leg is bank credit creation, which he says accelerated in 4Q25, with large lenders willing to extend loans where government equity stakes or offtake agreements reduce default risk. The third is housing: Hayes points to Trump-backed directives for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to deploy $200 billion toward MBS purchases, arguing that lower mortgage rates could unlock a familiar wealth effect and, by extension, more credit. Related Reading: Bitcoin Accumulation Continues: Strategy Purchases 1,287 BTC Amid Rising Prices He ties the pieces together with a simple conclusion: if liquidity turns, Bitcoin should follow. “Bitcoin … and dollar liquidity bottomed around the same time,” he writes, arguing that the next major leg depends less on sentiment than on renewed credit expansion. MSTR, Metaplanet, And ZCash Hayes describes himself as a “degen speculator” and says Maelstrom is already “nearly fully invested,” but he still wants “MOAR risk” to capture upside convexity if Bitcoin reclaims higher levels. Rather than using perpetuals or options, he says he’s long Strategy and Metaplanet for levered exposure via corporate balance sheets. His timing argument is valuation-relative: he compares each company’s “DAT” to Bitcoin priced in the relevant currency (yen for Metaplanet, dollars for Strategy) and says those ratios sit near the low end of the past two years, after being “down substantially” from mid-2025 peaks. He adds a key condition: “If Bitcoin can retake $110,000, investors will get the itch to go long Bitcoin through these vehicles. Given the leverage embedded in the capital structure of these businesses, they will outperform Bitcoin on the upside.” He also flags continued accumulation of Zcash. Hayes argues the departure of developers at Electric Coin Company (ECC) is not bearish: “We continue to add to our Zcash position. The departure of the devs at ECC is not bearish. I firmly believe they will ship better, more impactful products within their own for-profit entity. I’m thankful for the opportunity to buy discounted ZEC from weak hands.” At press time, MSTR traded at $179.33. Featured image from YouTube, chart from TradingView.com
The Zcash protocol remains unaffected despite the governance clash and restructuring with Bootstrap.
Zcash (ZEC) suffered the steepest decline among top-tier digital assets on Jan. 8, plunging approximately 20% amid a collision of governance turmoil and a leverage-driven market flush. According to CryptoSlate data, Zcash fell to a month-low of $382, making it the day’s biggest loser on the Top 100 leaderboard. This price performance decoupled violently from […]
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ECC's CEO, Josh Swihart, claims the team was forced to leave because of changes that made their work untenable.
Cypherpunk’s ZEC position now accounts for more than a third of its stated 5% accumulation target, following a series of recent purchases.