After reaching an all-time high of $126,100 in October 2025, Bitcoin entered a deep correction phase, pushing prices to around $60,000 in early February. According to crypto market analysis firm XWIN Research Japan, these last bearish months have marked a structural re-evaluation phase for the leading cryptocurrency. While the consensus market sentiment remains bearish, data from certain supply-side indicators suggest an exhaustion of selling pressure. Notably, XWIN Research Japan shares an insightful analysis of the Bitcoin market balance, based on data from two key on-chain metrics. Related Reading: Bitcoin On-Chain Data Identifies Unusual Market Cap Behavior – Details Bitcoin Correction Driven By Weak Demand, ETF Inflows Show In their latest QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, XWIN Research Japan employs data from the Bitcoin Exchange Reserves and ETF Inflows to properly assess market demand and supply, and ascertain the current phase of the market. Using information from charts shared by CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, the analysts report that Bitcoin exchange reserves have recorded a steady decline since 2024. This indicates that investors increasingly leaned towards holding their assets in private storage rather than opting for a potential sale. In other words, market supply over the last two years has also gradually reduced. The majority of this period has been matched by an equal or higher demand, as illustrated by an observed price gain of over 200% during this period. One major factor behind this price rise is the Bitcoin Spot ETFs, with a current cumulative total net inflows of $55.37 billion and net assets of $87.07 billion within two years of launch. However, after hitting its most recent all-time high, the Bitcoin Spot ETFs began experiencing a decline in holdings. Notably, data from SoSoValue shows these Bitcoin ETFs recorded over $6.38 billion in net outflows between November and February, indicating a drastic fall in institutional demand, which significantly influenced the Bitcoin correction. According to XWIN Research Japan, this observation further strengthens the Bitcoin Spot ETF as a structural driver in the present market cycle. However, ETF outflows have stabilized in recent times, with large net outflows coming to a halt as most institutional investors appear to have completed rebalancing their portfolios. In particular, the last two trading weeks have resulted in combined net inflows of $1.36 billion. Nevertheless, XWIN Research Japan remains in a supply-demand rebalancing phase, and a sustained rise in ETF holdings is needed to reassess market direction. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Bleed $349M In A Day As Whales Dump, Small Buyers Step In: Analysts Bitcoin Price Overview At press time, Bitcoin is valued at $67,372 after a 4.34% gain in the last month. Featured image from MarketWatch, chart from Tradingview.com
The Bitcoin market has continued to consolidate within the $90,000 price zone over the last day, reflecting a minor 0.04% gain within this period. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency has witnessed a steady rally in recent weeks, forming the early phases of an ascending channel. To protect this potential uptrend, recent on-chain data shows that investors are moving to initiate a downside and price in the market effect of an anticipated negative catalyst. Related Reading: Bitcoin Macro Retracement Meets Mid-Range Battle – Will Bulls Reclaim Momentum? Bitcoin Sees High Inflows, Negative Funding Rates As Investors Guard Against Rate Hike In a QuickTake post on CryptoQuant, the crypto analysis page XWIN Research Japan discusses how potential Japan economic developments are presently impacting the Bitcoin market. Notably, analysts and economists expect the Bank of Japan to announce a 25 bps rate hike at its next policy meeting between December 18-19, as the Asian nation moves to end an ultra-loose monetary regime. Interest rate hikes are generally interpreted as bearish catalysts as they force investors to move out of risky assets due to less available capital, thereby inducing a price decline. According to XWIN Research Japan, Bitcoin investors may currently be attempting to absorb the resulting price pressure, potentially muting the immediate impact of the primary catalyst itself. This theory is based on multiple developments, such as exchange netflows. The analysts at XWIN report that exchange inflows are rising to mirror similar levels seen during previous BOJ hikes. Investors are presently exiting exchanges and minimizing their spot exposure to reduce the market impact of the expected decision. Meanwhile, the funding rates are also declining, another event seen during past rate hikes. Notably, investors are proactively losing their leverage in what is a pre-event caution movement. Related Reading: Ethereum Holds Support As Smart Money Steps In – What This Means For Price What Next For Bitcoin? At press time, Bitcoin tie valued at $90,190, reflecting a market gain of 0.77% in the past week. With the Bank of Japan’s hawkish pivot largely priced in, XWIN Research says that market focus has shifted away from the rate hike itself toward post-announcement yen dynamics. Going forward, the analysts explain that Bitcoin’s near-term direction may hinge on whether the yen continues to strengthen or if markets respond with a “sell the rumor, buy the fact” reversal, signaling that the adjustment phase is already unfolding. With a market cap of $1.67 trillion, Bitcoin continues to rank as the largest cryptocurrency with a current market dominance of 58.2% Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview