Nearly 20% of the world’s oil supply moves through the Strait of Hormuz. Iran now wants a cut of it — not by force, but through Bitcoin. Related Reading: XRP Will Go ‘Higher, Much Higher,’ Analyst Says, Betting On Explosive Breakout A Platform Built Around Geography Iran’s Ministry of Economy launched Hormuz Safe on May 16, 2026, a maritime insurance platform that lets cargo operators pay with Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies instead of going through traditional banks. Once a payment clears on-chain, the cargo gets immediate insurance coverage along with a digitally signed receipt. The target market is ships passing through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz — one of the most heavily trafficked shipping corridors in the world. Iranian media have reported that the platform could eventually bring in more than $10 billion a year. No official figures have been released to back that number up. Sidestepping The Dollar For years, Western sanctions have blocked Iran from the global banking system, cutting it off from tools like SWIFT and dollar-based transactions. Hormuz Safe fits into a broader pattern of Iran looking to crypto as a workaround. Reports indicate the country has been exploring Bitcoin, stablecoins, and blockchain systems as ways to keep trade moving despite those restrictions. The idea behind the platform is straightforward. Instead of threatening to shut down a critical shipping lane during periods of tension, Iran appears to be trying to profit from the traffic that already flows through it. Early Stage, Big Questions Despite the attention the launch has drawn, Hormuz Safe is still very much a work in progress. Reports say the platform has little more than a basic landing page online, and key legal and technical details remain unanswered. The biggest obstacle for potential customers is sanctions exposure. US regulators have a track record of going after companies that do business with Iranian state-linked entities. Related Reading: Warren Zeroes In On Crypto Deal Structure As $75M Loan Draws Attention Any shipping operator that signs up could face secondary sanctions or compliance problems back home. On top of that, insurance certificates issued through an Iranian crypto platform may not be recognized by ports and regulators in other countries. Hormuz Safe remains an early-stage initiative that has generated more attention than actual business activity. Still, it reflects a growing trend: crypto is increasingly becoming a tool not just for traders and investors, but also for countries seeking alternatives to financial systems that have long been used against them. Featured image from Reuters, chart from TradingView
If Bitcoin closes above $80,000 on a daily candle, a short squeeze could send prices racing toward $82,230 — a level that hasn’t been tested in seven months. Related Reading: XRP Bulls Eye Breakout As Ripple Unveils 13,000 Bank Connections Worldwide That’s the scenario analysts are watching after a massive wave of selling halted Bitcoin’s climb at a key resistance zone over the weekend. Short Sellers Dominate The Derivatives Market Data from Binance futures shows nearly 63% of open positions are currently short, meaning a large share of traders are betting on lower prices. According to analyst Frigg, that setup cuts both ways. If buyers manage to push Bitcoin through $80,000 and hold it, those short positions would be forced to close, adding buying pressure and potentially accelerating a move to the 200-day moving average at $82,230. $BTC touched $80,526 this morning. it’s at $79,900 on rn. a wick is not a close. here’s what actually moved it. Trump announced Project Freedom Sunday night U.S. escorting stranded vessels through the Strait of Hormuz starting today. 15,000 troops, destroyers, 100+ aircraft.… pic.twitter.com/p1SP4Ktilc — Frigg ???? (@0xfrigg) May 4, 2026 That threshold hasn’t been tested since last October. The derivatives picture sits on top of a broader accumulation trend. Reports indicate whale wallets added 270,000 BTC through April, while Bitcoin held on exchanges fell to its lowest level in seven years. Less Bitcoin on exchanges typically signals that holders are moving coins into cold storage — not preparing to sell. Bitcoin: Taker Sell Volume hits $1.67B in a single hour, highest value in 2 weeks???? pic.twitter.com/2Otd8PIRg8 — Maartunn (@JA_Maartun) May 4, 2026 $1.67 Billion In One Hour The selling spike itself came fast. CryptoQuant analyst Maartunn flagged that taker sell volume hit $1.67 billion in a single hour — the highest reading in two weeks — right as Bitcoin crossed $80,000 for the first time since January 2026. Taker sell volume tracks market orders placed immediately at the best available price. When that number spikes, it points to urgent selling rather than patient, limit-order activity. Based on the data, analysts said $80,000 acted more like a distribution zone than a true breakout point, with sellers absorbing demand faster than buyers could sustain momentum. Bitcoin pulled back after the rejection, retreating from a high of $80,500 reached just hours earlier. Macro Events Helped Fuel The Run-Up The rally itself had a geopolitical trigger. US President Donald Trump announced what his administration called Project Freedom on Sunday, with the US military beginning to escort vessels through the Strait of Hormuz using 15,000 troops, destroyers, and more than 100 aircraft. Related Reading: Long-Dormant Bitcoin Whale Transfers 11,300 BTC, Sparking Market Speculation The operation pushed oil prices lower and lifted sentiment across risk assets, Bitcoin included. Frigg noted the situation remains unstable. A tanker was struck near Fujairah the same morning, and Iran described the US operation as a ceasefire violation. The brief improvement in market mood, she said, has not resolved the underlying tension. Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin’s technical indicators had just started flashing warning signs when crude oil markets made things worse. The MACD histogram turned red — a signal that buying pressure was fading — right as West Texas Intermediate crude surged past $104 a barrel, rattling risk assets across the board. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Brewing: ATH In Sight By Late 2026: Analyst Bitcoin Gives Back Recent Gains BTC had clawed its way above $78,000 earlier this week, briefly restoring confidence among buyers. That recovery is now gone. The cryptocurrency slipped below $77,000 on April 28, trading at $76,180 — its lowest level since April 22, when it had just reclaimed that threshold after weeks of struggling beneath it. The $77,000 mark carries weight in Bitcoin’s recent history. The asset first broke below it in early February and spent a prolonged stretch under it. A failed retest on April 17 kept sellers in control. The brief breakout on April 22 looked like a turning point. It wasn’t. For Bitcoin to get back on track, analysts say it needs to retake $77,000 and push through the upper Bollinger Band near $79,850. Until then, the immediate floor sits around $75,490, near the middle Bollinger Band — a level BTC has bounced from before, though holding it is far from guaranteed. Oil Jumps As Iran Talks Hit A Wall The backdrop driving the sell-off is a breakdown in US-Iran negotiations. On April 27, Iran put forward a new proposal through Pakistani intermediaries. The offer included reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting a US blockade, while asking to push nuclear discussions to a later stage. US President Donald Trump rejected it. His administration made clear that the terms didn’t go far enough — particularly on nuclear weapons, which Trump said Iran could not be allowed to develop. A planned US delegation trip to Islamabad had already been canceled after earlier Iranian terms were seen as insufficient, with travel security concerns also cited. Indirect back-channel communication continues, but face-to-face talks remain frozen. Oil markets moved fast. WTI crude shot from $98 to a peak of $104 before pulling back slightly to $101. That still left it up 2.50% on the day and more than 4% on the week, following a 12.70% surge the prior week. Related Reading: Trump’s Bitcoin Reserve Could Be Near As White House Signals Major Update Crypto Markets Feel The Pressure Bitcoin retreated 2% on April 28 after sliding 1.64% the previous day. The consecutive losses erased what had looked like a meaningful recovery, leaving the asset more than $3,000 below where it traded just days earlier. Broader market uncertainty tied to Middle East tensions is adding to the pressure. When oil climbs sharply, it typically signals supply fears and geopolitical instability — conditions that tend to push investors away from higher-risk assets like crypto. Featured image from MetaAI, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin traders are already betting the wider US-Iran ceasefire will hold. Data from prediction market Polymarket puts the odds of a permanent peace deal by April 22 at 23%. Related Reading: Bitcoin Rally Faces First Test At $76K As Sellers Step In: Analysts Markets React To Diplomatic Breakthrough That confidence is showing up in Bitcoin’s price. The world’s largest cryptocurrency climbed to $74,650 on Thursday, bouncing back from an intraday low of around $73,050, according to TradingView data. The move came within hours of US President Donald Trump announcing a 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon — a deal that had been quietly taking shape following direct talks between the two countries on US soil the day before. Trump made the announcement on Truth Social, saying both sides had agreed to begin the truce immediately as part of broader efforts toward lasting peace. Short. Direct. And enough to move markets. Nuclear Talks Add To Optimism The Israel-Lebanon deal matters beyond its own terms. Iran had made clear it would walk away from its own ceasefire agreement with the US if Israeli strikes on Lebanon did not stop. With that condition now met, the path to a second round of US-Iran peace talks looks more open. Reports from Pakistani mediators indicate a major step forward on Iran’s nuclear program, which was the main sticking point when the two sides failed to reach a deal in the first round of negotiations last weekend. Bitcoin had already touched a multi-month peak of $76,000 earlier this week, driven by growing optimism that the US-Iran conflict could wind down. The war had weighed heavily on risk assets from its early days, with rising oil prices stoking inflation fears that kept investors cautious. As those concerns ease, money has started moving back into crypto. Ceasefire Extension In Focus Tensions remain, even if they have softened. Trump’s decision to blockade the Strait of Hormuz earlier this week rattled nerves, though markets have since stabilized. The window for a resolution is narrow. Both the US-Iran truce and the newly announced Israel-Lebanon ceasefire are short-term arrangements, not permanent agreements. Related Reading: ‘Extremely Good News’ – XRP DeFi Momentum Builds As SEC Softens Position On Interfaces Still, the mood among traders has shifted. Pakistani officials are said to be shuttling communications between Washington and Tehran ahead of a potential second round of talks. Based on reports, both governments continue to engage through back channels even as formal negotiations pause. Whether the ceasefires hold — and whether they grow into something more durable — will likely determine where Bitcoin heads next. Featured image from ddnews.gov.in, chart from TradingView
More than 87% of Argentinians surveyed in a January Coinbase poll said they view crypto and blockchain technology as a way to strengthen their financial independence — a sign that the role of Bitcoin in the global economy may already be shifting well beyond what markets have priced in. Related Reading: ‘Extremely Good News’ – XRP DeFi Momentum Builds As SEC Softens Position On Interfaces Bitcoin’s Dual Role Draws New Attention Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise, made that case publicly this week. He said Bitcoin could one day command a total addressable market larger than gold’s $34 trillion valuation — but only if it manages to function both as a store of value and as an actual working currency. That’s a bigger claim than what Bitcoin bulls have traditionally made. For years, the comparison to gold was the headline argument. Now, a war is adding a new layer to that conversation. https://t.co/jxIcOn1e23 — Matt Hougan (@Matt_Hougan) April 14, 2026 Iran has proposed allowing ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz to pay a toll in crypto. The plan, reported in recent days amid escalating conflict with the United States, is being watched closely by Bitcoin investors. To Hougan, it points to something larger. In a world where countries have turned financial systems into weapons, he wrote on social media, Bitcoin is emerging as an option that no single government controls. A $1 Million Price Target — And Possibly Higher Hougan previously put a number on his store-of-value thesis: if Bitcoin captures 17% of that market over the next decade, each coin could be worth $1 million. Based on his latest comments, that figure may need to be revised upward if Bitcoin begins functioning like a currency alongside its role as a savings vehicle. At the time of writing, Bitcoin trades around $74,150, with a total market cap of roughly $1.4 trillion. Gold, by comparison, sits at $4,854 per ounce, with an estimated market cap exceeding $33 trillion. Corporate treasuries have also been buying in. Data shows private and public companies collectively hold more than 1.5 million Bitcoin, valued at over $116 billion. Merchant Adoption Remains A Work In Progress Still, the currency side of the equation has ground to cover. A study by academic publisher Springer Nature found roughly 11,000 merchants worldwide currently accept Bitcoin as payment — a relatively modest number for an asset of its size. Related Reading: Dollar’s Shrinking Value Adds Fuel To XRP Bull Case: Finance Expert Adoption has been strongest in countries where local currencies have collapsed. Citizens in Turkey and Venezuela, like those in Argentina, have turned to Bitcoin to protect savings against persistent inflation. Whether Iran’s crypto toll proposal signals a turning point for Bitcoin as an international currency — or simply reflects one sanctioned nation finding a workaround — remains to be seen. What’s clear is that Bitwise believes the story is bigger than gold alone. Featured image from Meta, chart from TradingView
Investors are currently sifting through a decade of market data to see if a massive spike in energy costs will sink Bitcoin and the crypto market. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Pull In $56B As CEO Pitches Crypto Over Gold While many people focus on the immediate price of oil, the real damage to Bitcoin in the past often came from internal industry blowouts rather than what was happening at the gas pump. The 2014 crash happened alongside the Mt. Gox exchange failure. In 2022, the Terra-Luna collapse wiped out billions. These events, rather than just expensive fuel, played the biggest role in deepening previous bear markets. The Weight Of Geopolitics On Digital Assets Reports indicate that West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil jumped above the $104 mark on Monday. This is the highest price seen in nearly four years. US President Donald Trump recently expressed a desire for the US to maintain indefinite control over the oil industry in Iran. Such statements and global tensions usually push oil higher. When energy becomes this expensive, it often acts as a drag on the entire economy. It takes money out of the pockets of everyday people who might otherwise buy digital assets. Data shows that Bitcoin miners also feel the sting because their operations require significant amounts of power. In the past 12 years, there have only been three times when oil hit this specific $104 level. Because these events are so rare, some analysts believe it is hard to say for sure that one causes the other. The first instance occurred in June 2014 when ISIS moved into northern Iraq. Bitcoin was trading around $600 at the time but lost 21% of its value over the next 10 weeks. It stayed down for a long time. It actually took more than two years for the price to climb back to where it started before that specific oil spike. Searching For Patterns In A Volatile Market The most recent example happened in May 2022. This followed a proposal by the European Commission to phase out Russian oil imports. Bitcoin did not just dip; it fell 25% in only seven days. That specific crash started a bear market that lasted for 19 months. Even though oil prices eventually dropped back below $100 for several years, the damage to the crypto world was already done. Based on reports, the current return to triple-digit oil prices has many traders on edge. They are watching to see if history will repeat itself or if the market has become strong enough to handle the pressure. Related Reading: 8.25M XRP Exit Long-Term Holders As Whales Buy $1.20–$3 A Fear Of Broad Economic Pullbacks Not every spike leads to a permanent disaster. In March 2022, Bitcoin dropped 15% after the Russia-Ukraine war began and oil soared. However, that loss was erased in less than a month. Even though oil stayed high, Bitcoin managed to recover its footing quickly. This shows that the relationship between the two is not always a straight line. Sometimes the market reacts to the news of war more than the actual cost of the commodity. Featured image from Trade Brains, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin is trading near $67,300, well off its recent high of $74,000. One well-known analyst says that dip barely matters — he’s looking at a cycle average closer to half a million dollars. Related Reading: WAR Token Explodes 100%, Then Crashes 20% In Sudden Sell-Off A Model Built On Scarcity PlanB, the pseudonymous analyst behind the Stock-to-Flow model, says Bitcoin’s price during the current 2024–2028 halving cycle could average around $500,000, with a range stretching from $250,000 to $1 million. The model is built on a simple premise: as Bitcoin’s supply grows more slowly — thanks to halving events that cut mining rewards roughly every four years — and demand holds steady or rises, the price should follow. Reports indicate that PlanB is careful to frame the figure as a cycle average, not a ceiling or a guaranteed peak. Bitcoin halvings reduce the number of new coins entering circulation. The most recent one took place in April 2024. Historically, each halving has been followed by a significant price run. That pattern is the backbone of PlanB’s argument. ???? Bitcoin at $67k… but S2F model screams $500k avg this cycle (2024-2028)! ???? Is BTC massively undervalued & the ultimate buy opportunity? Or is S2F broken forever? ???? What’s your take, bull or bust? pic.twitter.com/QlBhOgSgGj — PlanB (@100trillionUSD) March 8, 2026 Not Everyone Is Buying It Crypto analyst Bobby A puts his estimate at $200,000 to $250,000 by 2026 or 2027 — still a major jump from current levels, but nowhere near PlanB’s midpoint. According to Bobby A, Stock-to-Flow works as a rough long-term guide but falls short when used to pin down specific price targets in complex markets. He argues the model captures Bitcoin’s broad growth story without accounting for the many variables that move prices in real time. My take is somewhere in the middle. In my opinion, Bitcoin is currently undervalued and will likely trade toward the $200,000 to $250,000 range as this cycle matures through 2026 and into 2027. That said, I do not subscribe to the idea that Bitcoin will reach $500,000 by 2028.… https://t.co/d8wu0skKuN — Bobby A (@Bobby_1111888) March 8, 2026 That skepticism is not without basis. Stock-to-Flow drew sharp criticism after Bitcoin failed to sustain the price levels the model projected during the 2020–2024 cycle. Some analysts wrote off the model entirely. Others say it was never meant to work as a precise forecasting tool to begin with — a nuance that often gets lost in headline-driven coverage. Related Reading: Stablecoin Market Breaks Records — USDC Controls 70% Of $1.8 Trillion Volume What’s Weighing On Bitcoin Now Several outside pressures have contributed to Bitcoin’s recent pullback. Geopolitical tensions and shifting inflows into spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds — which won US regulatory approval in early 2024 — have added to short-term volatility. Data shows that ETF inflows, which helped push Bitcoin to record highs earlier this year, have been inconsistent in recent months. Reports note that many analysts view the current period as a consolidation phase following the strong rally that carried Bitcoin above $72,000. Whether that consolidation leads to a renewed push higher — or signals a longer plateau — remains an open question. PlanB’s $500,000 average would require Bitcoin to climb more than seven times its current price before the cycle ends. That’s a large number. But in a market that went from under $20,000 to over $73,000 in roughly 18 months, some investors say stranger things have happened. Featured image from Free3D.com, chart from TradingView
Macro strategist Mark Connors says war-driven spending, rising debt and lower interest rates could support bitcoin.
One person — or entity — controls 31% of all WAR tokens in circulation. That single fact sits quietly in the background as the Solana-based memecoin grabs headlines for one of the more dramatic two-day price swings in the current crypto cycle. The coin doubled on Friday. Today, nearly a quarter of those gains had been erased. Related Reading: Stablecoin Market Breaks Records — USDC Controls 70% Of $1.8 Trillion Volume On Unrest & Geopolitical Events WAR, which stands for Western Asset Reserve, bills itself as a geopolitical sentiment token — a coin whose price is meant to move with world events, particularly armed conflicts. It does not track war through any technical mechanism. The connection is purely narrative. When headlines about global tensions spread, traders buy in. When attention moves elsewhere, prices follow. According to data from CoinMarketCap, WAR fell from an intraday peak above $0.60 to around $0.028 during the selloff, Monday. Trading volume dropped roughly 20% over the same 24-hour window to approximately $22 million, with its total market cap sitting near $28 million. Token Migration Brought In Fresh Traders And Fresh Money Before the surge, WAR completed a platform move. The project shifted from Bonk.fun to Pump.fun, a more widely used launchpad on the Solana network. The team announced the migration window would stay open for seven days, after which a new contract would be deployed on Pump.fun. Token holders who missed the window would face a 10% tax on late claims, with a 90-day window to complete them. The move expanded WAR’s reach. On the day of the migration, trading volume climbed above $24 million as more retail participants gained access through Pump.fun’s broader toolset. Reports indicate the platform switch played a role in drawing fresh attention to the token ahead of its price spike. WAR launched earlier this year on Bonk.fun. Unlike memecoins built around animal mascots or celebrity names, it leaned into real-world conflict as its identity. Over roughly three months, its price rose 650% on the back of media attention and trader speculation. WAR Follows A Pattern Familiar To PolitiFi Token Watchers WAR is part of a group of tokens known as PolitiFi, which refers to tokens that are based on politics or international events, as opposed to technology. Other tokens in this group include TRUMP, MELANIA, LIBRA, among others. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Break 5-Month Streak With 2nd Consecutive Week Of Inflows All these tokens have seen similar patterns in their price movement, with initial explosive increases in price, only to plummet as quickly as they began. From reports, it is evident that there is a plan in place by the development team for governance, as well as merchandise, though these plans are yet to be implemented. The liquidity of the token is mainly found in Solana-based exchanges, contributing to the volatility in its price over the last two days. With one individual owning nearly one-third of the supply, it is likely that the next move of the token will be determined by events in the world tomorrow, as opposed to events in the world of cryptocurrency. Featured image from Shutterstock, chart from TradingView
Nuclear weapon-themed markets aren’t new on the prediction market platform, but public outcry about the contracts has apparently forced the platform to delete them.
Hours after explosions were reported in Tehran, digital money began moving. Reports say cryptocurrency withdrawals from Iran’s largest exchange jumped sharply as news of US and Israeli airstrikes spread across the country. Related Reading: Crypto’s Quietest Month In Nearly A Year — But Hackers Haven’t Gone Away Blockchain data reviewed by analytics firms shows outflows rising about 700% in a short window, a spike that stood out against normal daily activity. Crypto Rush Follows Airstrikes According to blockchain tracking firm Elliptic, wallets linked to Nobitex, Iran’s biggest crypto trading platform, sent out far more funds than usual within minutes of the first strike. In less than an hour, transfers climbed into the millions of dollars. The surge was quick. It was also brief. The timing caught attention. Based on reports, the jump began almost immediately after confirmation of military action. Digital assets were shifted to external wallets and, in some cases, to overseas exchanges. For many Iranians who already face sanctions and banking limits, crypto has become one of the few ways to move value across borders. Nobitex has long operated in a gray zone shaped by sanctions and capital controls. Crypto use in the country has grown over the years as access to global finance tightened. During past waves of unrest, similar patterns were recorded, though not always at this scale. Internet Blackout Slows The Flow The rush did not last. Reports note that internet connectivity across Iran dropped by about 99% shortly after the strikes, limiting further transfers. With connections cut or heavily restricted, the stream of outgoing crypto transactions slowed to a trickle. TRM Labs, another blockchain analytics firm, said the spike may reflect short-term panic rather than an organized effort to move large pools of capital. A sharp move from a low base can look dramatic in percentage terms. Some transactions were completed before the blackout. Others appear to have stalled. Transfers can be initiated quickly, but they still depend on access to the internet and functioning platforms. When connectivity disappears, so does that option. Weakened Currency Iran’s economy has been under strain for years. Sanctions tied to its nuclear program and regional policies have limited trade and weakened the national currency. Crypto mining and trading, at times tolerated and at other times restricted, have offered an alternative path for some citizens and businesses. Related Reading: Wall Street Giant JPMorgan Sees Clarity Act Driving Second-Half Upside There has been no public sign that the spike altered broader crypto prices. Bitcoin and other major tokens reacted more to global risk sentiment than to activity inside Iran alone. Still, the 700% surge serves as another example of how quickly digital money can respond to geopolitical shocks. For a few tense hours, crypto became a lifeline for some users in Iran. Then the cables went dark, and the flow slowed. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView
War is burning across the Middle East. Oil prices are climbing. Stock markets in Asia have taken a hit. And yet, Bitcoin is still standing above $66,000 — a fact that has caught the attention of analysts keeping a close eye on the market. Related Reading: Crypto’s Quietest Month In Nearly A Year — But Hackers Haven’t Gone Away Calm Where There Should Be Panic The group most closely watched during moments of market stress is what analysts call short-term holders — people who bought Bitcoin recently and are most likely to sell fast when things go wrong. Based on reports from on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, that group has stayed unusually quiet. When Bitcoin slipped into the $63,000 to $64,000 range on Feb. 28, exchange inflows from recent buyers barely moved. No major wave of selling followed. No spike in coins being rushed to exchanges at a loss. That was not the case earlier in February. Reports say that on Feb. 5-6, short-term holders sent 89,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss within a single 24-hour window. It was a clear panic event. Since then, those kinds of loss-driven transfers have been falling steadily — and the Iran escalation did not reverse that trend. CryptoQuant analyst Moreno, who tracked the data, says this matters because markets tend to find their footing once the most nervous sellers have already exited. If exchange inflows from short-term holders remain low, it could point to seller exhaustion and set the stage for a price recovery. A sudden jump in those inflows, however, would suggest the selling is not done. What History Says About War And Bitcoin This is not the first time Bitcoin has been tested by armed conflict. According to market analyst Ted Pillows, the pattern has played out twice before. When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Bitcoin dropped — then surged 40%. When Israel struck Iran in June 2025, Bitcoin dipped again before gaining 25%. Feb 2022: Russia attacked Ukraine. ▫️ $BTC dumped first and then rallied 40%. June 2025: Israel attacked Iran. ▫️ Bitcoin dumped first and then rallied 25%. Feb 2026: US attacked Iran. Will a similar pattern follow again? pic.twitter.com/b8FLF4aR9p — Ted (@TedPillows) February 28, 2026 Now, following joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran in February 2026, Bitcoin has once again pulled back. Pillows is now asking whether that same rebound pattern could follow a third time. The current conflict is far larger than those earlier flashpoints. Reports say US-Israeli forces struck more than 2,000 targets across 131 Iranian cities and provinces, hitting nuclear sites, missile systems, and senior military figures, including Iran’s Supreme Leader. Related Reading: Wall Street Giant JPMorgan Sees Clarity Act Driving Second-Half Upside Bitcoin Price Action Iran fired back with missiles and drones aimed at Israel, US bases, and multiple Gulf states. The war has dragged in Lebanon, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Cyprus, and a UK military base. Bitcoin has dropped 3.5% since Feb. 26, bringing its price to $65,540. It briefly touched $63,030 on Feb. 28 before climbing back above $65,000. Given the scale of what is happening on the ground, that kind of price movement is relatively contained. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Ukraine’s crypto card market is shrinking fast. Weld Money, a fintech that let people spend crypto through a Mastercard-linked card, is closing its doors in the country. Users have been told to pull out their money by the end of next month or risk losing access. Related Reading: Tether’s 2-Year, $5 Billion Investment Blitz Fuels US Companies: CEO According to company posts on social media, military controls under martial law and unclear rules drove the decision. The startup began five years ago offering a super-app for bank accounts. In 2022, it teamed up with Unex Bank to roll out a card tied to wallets on WhiteBIT and Huobi (now HTX). You could pay with USDT, USDC, BUSD or DAI at any shop that takes Mastercard. Crypto Card Firm Faces Harsh Controls Based on reports, Weld Money saw service disruptions as checkpoints and tightened checks slowed transactions. Some users flagged problems back in March on the firm’s Telegram channel. Every delay chipped away at the smooth withdrawals and payments that cardholders expected. $WELD Money are shutting down due to military & regulatory limits in Ukraine. Please withdraw funds by June 30 from all wallets & cards. Support — via Telegram: @alexeybobok#WELD #WeldMoney #crypto #shutdown #Ukraine pic.twitter.com/vhHTkS4a0Y — WeldMoney (@MoneyWeld) May 27, 2025 Regulations Hold Back Fintech Growth In April, Ukraine’s securities regulator floated a plan to tax crypto income at 18% and hike a defense surcharge from 1.5% to 5%. Lawmakers have stalled a key bill “On Virtual Assets” that was supposed to clear the fog. Until rules firm up, any company needing stable banking ties will hesitate to launch new services. Other Players Also Pack Up Weld Money isn’t alone. In January, Kuna – a local exchange – said it would halt trading. By March, the Economic Security Bureau, citing tax evasion claims, had even taken down its site. On May 20, wallet provider Trustee Plus stopped new sign-ups, pointing to the same legal doubts. Home-Grown Innovation Faces Exit Based on statements from fintech leaders, rising costs linked to the war aren’t the only issue. New limits on cash flows make budgeting tough. When major payment rails act up, small startups can’t cover tech teams and compliance checks at the same time. Related Reading: Investors Pour $2.75 Billion Into Bitcoin ETFs As Price Skyrockets Outlook Depends On Lawmakers According to analysts following Kyiv, passing the OVA bill could turn the tide. Clear rules on profit taxes and military levies might bring back some confidence. But even then, big global firms with deep compliance staffs are more likely to stay. Ukraine wants to be a hub for blockchain work. Yet, until peace and paperwork catch up, local players may find it too risky. For now, customers will be left scrambling to move funds. And the empty desks at small crypto firms will stand as proof that, in a country under martial law, uncertainty is costly. Featured image from Gemini, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin price rallies as traders react to geopolitical and economic uncertainty, as the potential outcome of the upcoming US election.
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin's price will rise alongside surging oil and energy prices if tensions between Iran and Israel boil over.