Bitcoin Dominance (BTC.D) has hit a critical turning point after getting sharply rejected from a TSDT resistance level that previously marked the start of a massive altcoin season. As the market reacts to this technical signal, analysts are closely watching for signs that a new altcoin season could be underway—one that could potentially mirror the explosive shift seen in 2021. Bitcoin Dominance Chart Signals Repeat Of 2021 Altcoin Season A new crypto analysis by market expert Tony Severino, posted on X social media on July 15, reveals that Bitcoin Dominance has once again faced a sharp rejection from the crucial TSDT resistance area near 65%. This level represents a technical ceiling that previously triggered a complete rotation of capital from BTC to alternative cryptocurrencies, fueling the famous altcoin season in early 2021. Related Reading: Bitcoin Dominance Falls: 9 Factors To Watch For That Says The Altcoin Season Has Begun The analyst’s monthly chart shows Bitcoin Dominance steadily climbing from mid-2022, peaking at around 65% in July 2025 before being rejected. This behavior mirrors the price action observed in late 2020 to early 2021, when BTC.D also reached this zone, got rejected, and then plunged—triggering a full-blown altcoin rally. Currently, Severino’s chart shows that Bitcoin Dominance sits at approximately 64.07%, just under the TDST resistance at 63.83%, with a notable candle forming after a strong uptrend. The analyst has indicated that if history repeats itself in this current cycle, it may result in a similar capital inflow into altcoins, possibly igniting the next altseason. Furthermore, the chart outlines key technical thresholds, including the TDST resistance, a TDST risk around 57.11%, and TDST support down at 40.08%. A decline toward these lower levels would indicate a significant drop in BTC dominance and further reinforce a pro-altcoin environment. Altcoin Supercycle Incoming Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader has also shared insight on the possibility of an explosive altcoin season this bull cycle. The analyst stated on X that a historical pattern between the US Dollar Index (DXY) and Bitcoin Dominance appears to be repeating, signaling the beginning of a new altcoin supercycle. Related Reading: Altcoin Season Index Spikes Above 30, But Bitcoin Dominance Remains High, What Next? According to his chart, three major DXY bull traps have been identified since 2016, each followed by a dramatic decline in BTC.D and a strong rally in the altcoin market. The first two DXY bull traps, which occurred around 2017 and 2020, both triggered significant breakdowns in BTC.D—plunging from over 90% to around 35% in 2018, and again in 2021. These breakdowns marked the start of powerful runs, now recognized by the analyst as altcoin supercycles. The current market structure now suggests that the next leg lower could be imminent, with BTC.D beginning to trend downward again. If history repeats itself, this setup implies a weakening dollar, declining Bitcoin Dominance, and the potential for altcoins to outperform significantly in the coming months. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
The US dollar index (DXY) is experiencing one of its largest weekly declines since 2013, fuelling optimism for a potential rally among risk-on assets, including Bitcoin (BTC). The last time the DXY saw such a sharp pullback was during the height of the FTX fiasco in November 2022, which coincided with a Bitcoin bottom. Will Bitcoin See An Uptrend? BTC is down nearly 10% over the past two weeks, largely due to the hawkish stance of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and concerns over trade tariffs from the US against Canada, Mexico, and China. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Showing Early Signs Of Bullish Divergence? Analyst Explains Since March 3, the DXY has slid more than 3%, tumbling from 107 to 103 at the time of writing. This decline has sparked hope among cryptocurrency investors for a potential rally. Historical data supports this outlook. In addition to the $15,000 BTC bottom formed in November 2022, the DXY has experienced similar sharp declines on two other occasions – during the COVID crash in March 2020 and back in the 2015 bear market when the premier cryptocurrency traded at $250. On all three occasions when the DXY dropped more than -4 standard deviations, BTC formed a bottom followed by a trend reversal that saw the digital asset resume its bullish momentum. Crypto analyst Merlijn The Trader shared their thoughts on the DXY-BTC relationship. In an X post, the analyst noted that whenever the DXY Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned bearish, BTC has rallied. The analyst illustrated this with the following chart. Fellow crypto analyst Rekt Capital had a similar perspective. The analyst emphasized that BTC has likely formed a higher low after another downside deviation, which saw the cryptocurrency hit a low of $78,258 on February 28. Important To Clear The $90,000 Resistance Another crypto trader, Daan Crypto Trader, hinted that BTC may target new all-time highs (ATH) around $120,000 if it continues to consolidate near range lows. The trader explained: We’ve seen this during every consolidation this cycle where it breaks lower, fails to see continuation, retakes the range and moves higher from there. Let’s see how this one turns out. That ~$90K level remains key. Related Reading: As Bitcoin Sell Pressure Fades, Could A Local Bottom Be Forming? Analyst Explains Recent analysis from CryptoQuant supports the view that BTC may have already formed a bottom. Additionally, seasoned crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently highlighted that BTC has hit oversold levels not seen since August 2024, likely signalling a trend reversal in the short-term. That said, BTC is also facing a bearish deviation as it fills a new Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) gap, which may dampen hopes for a swift price recovery. At press time, BTC is trading at $86,870, down 3.3% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from X and Tradingview.com
This week, the US Dollar Index (DXY) has recorded one of its largest three-day negative performances in recent history. Since Monday, the DXY is down -5.4%, falling from 109.881 to 103.967—an event some market observers interpret as a bullish inflection point for Bitcoin. Jamie Coutts, Chief Crypto Analyst at Real Vision, has drawn on historical comparisons to argue that the steep DXY decline could portend a significant upswing in the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization. DXY’s Historic Drop Signals A Major Bitcoin Rally Coutts presented the findings of two historical backtests on X, detailing how similar DXY drops have coincided with pivotal moments in Bitcoin’s price cycles. He wrote: “When looking at this recent move in the DXY through a historical lens, it’s challenging to be anything but bullish. I ran a signal screen for 3-day negative moves of more than -2% & -2.5% and found they have all occurred at Bitcoin bear market troughs (inflection points) or mid-cycle bull markets (trend continuations).” Although the statistical significance is limited by Bitcoin’s relatively short trading history, Coutts underscored that these data points are nonetheless worth considering. Related Reading: This Bitcoin Price Range Could Be The Bulls’ Final Defense Line, Report Says In his first backtest covering DXY declines of more than -2.5%, Coutts found such a scenario on eight occasions since 2013. Over a 90-day period following those declines, Bitcoin rose every single time, giving it a perfect 100% win rate. The average return was +37%, which would translate to an estimated BTC price of around $123,000, while a move of one standard deviation above that average reached +63% (approximately $146,000 BTC). Even in the worst instance, Bitcoin still managed to gain 14%, putting it around $102,000 BTC. In his second backtest focusing on DXY declines of more than -2.0%, there were 18 such occurrences since 2013, and Bitcoin was up 17 out of those 18 times for a 94% win rate. The average 90-day return stood at +31.6%, close to $118,000 BTC, while a one standard deviation move was +57.8% (around $141,000 BTC). The worst 90-day return after such a DXY drop was -14.6% (approximately $76,500 BTC). Related Reading: US To Buy 1 Million Bitcoin For Reserves, Hints Michael Saylor Acknowledging that these backtests cannot offer guarantees, Coutts stated, “I made a bold call yesterday about new highs by May. I try to base projections on robust data points. Ofc this time might be different. Let’s see.” Analysts often view a declining DXY as a sign of improving risk appetite in global markets, which can favor alternative stores of value and risk assets, including Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. The US Dollar Index’s abrupt retreat comes on the heels of regulatory concerns and a challenging February for Bitcoin, yet Coutts maintains that the larger trend looks remarkably similar to historical points of resurgence. He also noted in a post from the previous day: “Don’t think people understand the significance of the DXY move in the past 3 days and what it means for Bitcoin. […] The DXY saw its 4th largest negative 3-day move—massively liquidity-positive. Just as Bitcoin nuked and had its worst Feb in a decade. Meanwhile, in altcoin land, the Top 200 crypto index puked one more time. The chart shows that 365 days of New Lows hit 47%, a hallmark of capitulation in a bull cycle. The stage is set for a new all-time high in Bitcoin and Top 200 aggregate market cap by May.” At press time, BTC traded at $88,404. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
"Bitcoin is a speculative asset, an interesting speculative asset. I don't think there's a lot more to ask about this, though," Solomon said.