The United States spent in the first six days of its war with Iran an amount equal to nearly half the current market value of the Bitcoin held by the federal government. The administration told lawmakers this week that the war cost at least $11.3 billion through its first six days, Reuters reported on March […]
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Central banks aren’t buying it. Billionaire investor Ray Dalio doesn’t trust it as a safe haven. And Bitcoin is trading 44% below its October peak while gold sits near all-time highs. Related Reading: Bitcoin Crosses 20 Million Coins Mined — And Only 1 In 20 Remains That’s the backdrop against which Bitwise Asset Management’s chief investment officer is making the case that Bitcoin could still reach $1 million a coin within a decade. A Different Way To Run The Numbers Most people who shoot down the $1 million forecast do so by pointing out what it would take for Bitcoin to swallow up half of gold’s current market value. Matt Hougan says that’s the wrong calculation. According to Hougan, the error is treating gold’s market cap as a fixed number rather than a moving one. Gold has grown at roughly 13% annually since 2004, climbing from $2.5 trillion to around $38 trillion — driven by rising government debt concerns, geopolitical tension, and loose monetary policy. Hougan projects that if gold’s trajectory holds, the broader store-of-value market will reach around $121 trillion within 10 years. At that scale, Bitcoin would only need to capture 17% of the total — about one-sixth — to be worth $1 million per coin. That’s a notably different ask than the 50% figure critics typically cite. Hougan also pointed to institutional investment as a driver. Exchange-traded funds, sovereign wealth funds, and growing portfolio allocations are all being cited as forces that could push Bitcoin’s market share higher over the next decade. “There are still miles to go,” he wrote in a blog post, “but capturing a sixth of the store-of-value market in 10 years doesn’t seem extreme.” The Gap Between Thesis And Charts The argument rests on Bitcoin behaving more like gold over time. Right now, it isn’t. Gold struck a record high above $5,327 per ounce in late January and remains within 2.2% of that level. Bitcoin, by contrast, has been sliding. It’s down sharply from its highs, even as the macroeconomic conditions — debt concerns, inflation uncertainty, geopolitical friction — that typically lift gold have remained very much in play. Research out of NYDIG addressed this gap directly in early March. Bitcoin does not appear to be getting priced as a macro hedge, a sovereign risk hedge, or an inflation trade, according to the firm’s global head of research. That disconnect explains the frustration around Bitcoin’s failure to track gold despite the “digital gold” label that has followed it for years, NYDIG said. Dalio’s Pushback Dalio added his voice to the skeptics’ side earlier this month, arguing that gold remains a far stronger long-term store of value. His reasoning: central banks are buying gold, not Bitcoin. And Bitcoin, he said, trades less like a commodity hedge and more like a tech stock — something that follows risk appetite rather than countering it. Related Reading: Bitcoin ETFs Break 5-Month Streak With 2nd Consecutive Week Of Inflows Bitcoin & Iran-US War Bitcoin’s recent price action tells the story plainly. A US-Israeli military strike on Iran in late February triggered over $300 million in crypto liquidations, pushing Bitcoin lower before a partial recovery followed signals that the conflict could be winding down. It moved with risk appetite, not against it — which is exactly the behavior Dalio and others point to when they argue Bitcoin still has a long way to go before it earns the gold comparison. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Macro strategist Mark Connors says war-driven spending, rising debt and lower interest rates could support bitcoin.
A retired US Army combat medic has predicted that XRP will overtake Bitcoin as the world’s most valuable cryptocurrency — a claim that would require XRP’s price to climb from $1.41 to nearly $24. Related Reading: Iran’s Crypto Market Shaken As Outflows Skyrocket 700% A Long Road To The Top Patrick L. Riley, who now operates as a market commentator on social media, posted the forecast on X without offering supporting data or a specific timeline. It was not his first time making the claim. Last month, Riley said XRP would become the top-ranked crypto within six years, regardless of whether Bitcoin breaks the $150,000 price level this year. He added that if Bitcoin fails to reach that threshold and reclaim its 12-year trend line, it could collapse to as low as $1,000. Based on current market data, XRP sits fourth by total market value at close to $87 billion. Bitcoin leads at $1.45 trillion. Ethereum ranks second at $254 billion. BNB holds third place at $89.3 billion, just ahead of XRP. I’m going to make two very not bold predictions. 1: This will not be a 4-5 week long war. 2: XRP will pass Bitcoin. — Patrick L Riley (@Acquired_Savant) March 4, 2026 Before XRP could even challenge Bitcoin, it would first need to pass BNB — a gap of roughly 3.5% — and then Ethereum, which would require a price increase of about 190%, pushing XRP past $4.15. Surpassing Bitcoin would demand a further surge to $23.70. XRP last overtook Ethereum in December 2019. Since then, the token has bounced between third and fourth place, often trading blows with BNB for position. Other Voices, Similar Claims Riley is not alone in making this kind of forecast. In August 2025, a finance commentator known as Coach JV said XRP would claim the top spot by 2030, with Bitcoin falling to second. In March 2025, Jacob King, CEO of SwanDesk, made a similar argument after the US government confirmed it had added XRP to its national crypto stockpile. King said the US had effectively sidelined Bitcoin by choosing XRP for its strategic reserve, and that XRP’s market cap would surpass Bitcoin’s with certainty. No timeline was given. Riley Also Weighs In On The Israel-Iran War Beyond crypto, Riley’s post touched on the military conflict between Israel and Iran that broke out on February 28. The US and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iranian leadership, nuclear infrastructure, and proxy forces. Related Reading: US Should Act On Bitcoin, Not Just Praise It, Ex-Advisor To Trump Says Reports indicate Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was killed on the first day of the campaign, along with other senior officials. Iran responded with more than 200 missiles and drones targeting Israeli territory and US military positions in the Gulf region. At the outset, US President Donald Trump said the operation might run for about four to five weeks, with the possibility it could stretch longer. Riley later rejected that estimate in a post, though he did not explain what led him to think the conflict would wrap up sooner. Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView
The license would allow the firm to operate like a traditional bank and gain direct access to payment networks like Fedwire and ACH.
Arthur Hayes was wrong before. In December, the BitMEX co-founder predicted Bitcoin would hit $200,000 by March 2026. It didn’t. Bitcoin is trading near $71,000. Hayes is now calling for $500,000 to $750,000 by the end of the year, and his reasoning runs straight through the Middle East. Related Reading: Iran’s Crypto Market Shaken As Outflows Skyrocket 700% War, Spending, And The Fed Hayes argues that a prolonged US military conflict involving Iran would put severe pressure on federal finances. As government spending climbs, he believes policymakers would face little choice but to cut interest rates and pump more money into the financial system. That combination — loose monetary policy and expanding liquidity — is what he thinks sends Bitcoin sharply higher. The argument is grounded in history, at least partially. During the 1990 Gulf War, Federal Open Market Committee members openly cited Middle East instability as a factor in their deliberations. Crypto billionaire Arthur Hayes is predicting a $500k – $750k Bitcoin by end of 2026??? Trump admin + Iran conflict + Fed easing = ???????? He explains: pic.twitter.com/AU23sd216a — Altcoin Daily (@AltcoinDaily) March 2, 2026 By late 1990, the Fed had cut rates as economic confidence dropped. After the September 11 attacks in 2001, then-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan pushed for an emergency 50-basis-point cut, which was implemented almost immediately. Markets steadied shortly after. Hayes draws a direct line from those episodes to what he sees unfolding now. Large military operations cost hundreds of billions. Fiscal pressure builds. The Fed eventually eases. Risk assets, including Bitcoin, rise. A Pattern Hayes Has Bet On Before He made this case publicly in a Substack post, where he wrote that investors could find a meaningful entry point once the Fed begins cutting rates or expanding the money supply. He named Bitcoin and a handful of what he called high-quality altcoins as the assets best positioned to benefit once that shift begins. The key moment, in his view, is not the conflict itself but what comes after. Rate cuts and fresh liquidity, he argues, are what actually move prices. Related Reading: Long-Term Bitcoin Holders Buy $14 Billion In BTC As Retail Headed For The Exit The Gap Between The Forecast And The Chart Bitcoin’s current price tells a different story from Hayes’ projections. The coin sits roughly half its October peak of $126,000. While gold and oil climbed after US and Israeli strikes killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Bitcoin did not follow. It sold off initially before recovering to current levels. That disconnect — commodities rallying while Bitcoin lags — has not shaken Hayes’ outlook. His $500,000 to $750,000 call remains intact, pinned to the belief that monetary policy, not headlines, is what ultimately drives the price. Whether the Fed moves in that direction depends on how long and how costly the conflict becomes. Featured image from US Air Force, chart from TradingView
Hours after explosions were reported in Tehran, digital money began moving. Reports say cryptocurrency withdrawals from Iran’s largest exchange jumped sharply as news of US and Israeli airstrikes spread across the country. Related Reading: Crypto’s Quietest Month In Nearly A Year — But Hackers Haven’t Gone Away Blockchain data reviewed by analytics firms shows outflows rising about 700% in a short window, a spike that stood out against normal daily activity. Crypto Rush Follows Airstrikes According to blockchain tracking firm Elliptic, wallets linked to Nobitex, Iran’s biggest crypto trading platform, sent out far more funds than usual within minutes of the first strike. In less than an hour, transfers climbed into the millions of dollars. The surge was quick. It was also brief. The timing caught attention. Based on reports, the jump began almost immediately after confirmation of military action. Digital assets were shifted to external wallets and, in some cases, to overseas exchanges. For many Iranians who already face sanctions and banking limits, crypto has become one of the few ways to move value across borders. Nobitex has long operated in a gray zone shaped by sanctions and capital controls. Crypto use in the country has grown over the years as access to global finance tightened. During past waves of unrest, similar patterns were recorded, though not always at this scale. Internet Blackout Slows The Flow The rush did not last. Reports note that internet connectivity across Iran dropped by about 99% shortly after the strikes, limiting further transfers. With connections cut or heavily restricted, the stream of outgoing crypto transactions slowed to a trickle. TRM Labs, another blockchain analytics firm, said the spike may reflect short-term panic rather than an organized effort to move large pools of capital. A sharp move from a low base can look dramatic in percentage terms. Some transactions were completed before the blackout. Others appear to have stalled. Transfers can be initiated quickly, but they still depend on access to the internet and functioning platforms. When connectivity disappears, so does that option. Weakened Currency Iran’s economy has been under strain for years. Sanctions tied to its nuclear program and regional policies have limited trade and weakened the national currency. Crypto mining and trading, at times tolerated and at other times restricted, have offered an alternative path for some citizens and businesses. Related Reading: Wall Street Giant JPMorgan Sees Clarity Act Driving Second-Half Upside There has been no public sign that the spike altered broader crypto prices. Bitcoin and other major tokens reacted more to global risk sentiment than to activity inside Iran alone. Still, the 700% surge serves as another example of how quickly digital money can respond to geopolitical shocks. For a few tense hours, crypto became a lifeline for some users in Iran. Then the cables went dark, and the flow slowed. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from TradingView
War is burning across the Middle East. Oil prices are climbing. Stock markets in Asia have taken a hit. And yet, Bitcoin is still standing above $66,000 — a fact that has caught the attention of analysts keeping a close eye on the market. Related Reading: Crypto’s Quietest Month In Nearly A Year — But Hackers Haven’t Gone Away Calm Where There Should Be Panic The group most closely watched during moments of market stress is what analysts call short-term holders — people who bought Bitcoin recently and are most likely to sell fast when things go wrong. Based on reports from on-chain data platform CryptoQuant, that group has stayed unusually quiet. When Bitcoin slipped into the $63,000 to $64,000 range on Feb. 28, exchange inflows from recent buyers barely moved. No major wave of selling followed. No spike in coins being rushed to exchanges at a loss. That was not the case earlier in February. Reports say that on Feb. 5-6, short-term holders sent 89,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss within a single 24-hour window. It was a clear panic event. Since then, those kinds of loss-driven transfers have been falling steadily — and the Iran escalation did not reverse that trend. CryptoQuant analyst Moreno, who tracked the data, says this matters because markets tend to find their footing once the most nervous sellers have already exited. If exchange inflows from short-term holders remain low, it could point to seller exhaustion and set the stage for a price recovery. A sudden jump in those inflows, however, would suggest the selling is not done. What History Says About War And Bitcoin This is not the first time Bitcoin has been tested by armed conflict. According to market analyst Ted Pillows, the pattern has played out twice before. When Russia launched its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Bitcoin dropped — then surged 40%. When Israel struck Iran in June 2025, Bitcoin dipped again before gaining 25%. Feb 2022: Russia attacked Ukraine. ▫️ $BTC dumped first and then rallied 40%. June 2025: Israel attacked Iran. ▫️ Bitcoin dumped first and then rallied 25%. Feb 2026: US attacked Iran. Will a similar pattern follow again? pic.twitter.com/b8FLF4aR9p — Ted (@TedPillows) February 28, 2026 Now, following joint US-Israeli strikes on Iran in February 2026, Bitcoin has once again pulled back. Pillows is now asking whether that same rebound pattern could follow a third time. The current conflict is far larger than those earlier flashpoints. Reports say US-Israeli forces struck more than 2,000 targets across 131 Iranian cities and provinces, hitting nuclear sites, missile systems, and senior military figures, including Iran’s Supreme Leader. Related Reading: Wall Street Giant JPMorgan Sees Clarity Act Driving Second-Half Upside Bitcoin Price Action Iran fired back with missiles and drones aimed at Israel, US bases, and multiple Gulf states. The war has dragged in Lebanon, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the UAE, Cyprus, and a UK military base. Bitcoin has dropped 3.5% since Feb. 26, bringing its price to $65,540. It briefly touched $63,030 on Feb. 28 before climbing back above $65,000. Given the scale of what is happening on the ground, that kind of price movement is relatively contained. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Brent crude oil is trading like a geopolitical asset again, and that is forcing Bitcoin back into a macro test it has not fully resolved. For a third straight session, oil climbed as the widening US-Israel conflict with Iran revived fears of disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow maritime chokepoint that handles roughly […]
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Five straight weeks of net redemptions from crypto investment products are enough to raise the alarm, as they point to a choice that keeps getting made, with the same logic, on the same cadence, by the same kinds of committees. CoinShares' Feb. 23 weekly report showed digital asset investment products saw $288 million in outflows […]
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Market analyst MorenoDV_ reports a muted response by Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) to a combined attack by the US and Israel on Iran. The observation is important considering the previous sell-offs that have dominated the market in recent months. Related Reading: Bitcoin In The Line Of Fire: Price Dips To $63k As US, Israel Launch Strikes On Iran Bitcoin STH Reaction To Geopolitical Conflict Signals Seller Exhaustion – What Next? The Bitcoin short-term holders refer to a cohort of investors who acquired Bitcoin over the last 155 days. They are described as the most reactive set of investors, and therefore, activity is often indicative of short-term volatility and price direction. According to MorenoDV_ in a QuickTake post on February 27, these short-term holders are showing a moderate market response to the heightened geopolitical tensions in the Middle East after the US and Israel launched a coordinated attack on Iran. Using data from the Bitcoin STH P&L to exchanges 24H, the renowned market analyst reports subdued inflows to exchanges, indicating no panic profit taking or loss capitulation, even despite an event that has historically triggered a mass sell-off. MorenoDV_ explains that this shift in market behavior came after the major market capitulation between February 5-6, when Bitcoin short-term holders sent 89,000 BTC to exchanges at a loss within 24 hours. Following this event, loss-driven inflows appear to have steadily reduced, indicating sellers’ exhaustion, or a positive shift from panic to patience. With respect to the conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran, there was no spike in STH exchange inflows even as prices dipped to around $63,000-$64,000. MorenoDV_ states that this important observation suggests a complete exit of weak hands from the market as well as significant absorption of recent liquidation pressure. Looking ahead, if the STH holders maintain a muted response to other bearish triggers, it would suggest a market stabilization phase that has historically preceded a bullish market recovery arc. On the other hand, an increase in STH exchange inflows and realized losses would indicate market drawdown is incomplete, and investors still stand at risk of further decline. Related Reading: Bitcoin Enters Fragile Phase As Annual LTH Realized Profits Taper — Details Bitcoin Price Overview At the time of writing, Bitcoin is valued at $67,007, reflecting a slight rebound of 4.41% in the last 24 hours. In tandem, daily trading volume is up by 0.81% and valued at $40.81 billion. The premier cryptocurrency continues to move within a defined range of $60,000-$70,000 as seen for the majority of February. While analysts continue to speculate on the cycle bottom, the conditions for a bullish reversal, such as a recovery in ETF inflows, a spike in LTH demand, or a dovish Fed outlook, also remain absent. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from Tradingview
President Donald Trump has pulled the United States into military action against Iran, and the first consequence for crypto markets was another wave of selling rather than a rush into Bitcoin as a haven. According to CryptoSlate’s data, BTC price dumped around 7%, erasing some of its weeklong gains to trade as low as $63,000 […]
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The missiles started flying, and so did the sell orders. Within hours of the US and Israel launching coordinated strikes on Iran, Bitcoin had dropped as much as 3.8% to $63,038, Ethereum had fallen nearly 9%, and more than 152,000 traders had been liquidated across crypto markets. With traditional stock and bond markets closed for the weekend, digital assets absorbed the full force of the panic — alone. Related Reading: Bitcoin Sell-Off Slows Down, But The Road To Recovery Is Long — Analyst US And Israel Hit Iran’s Military And Nuclear Sites US President Donald Trump confirmed on Friday that the US had begun what he described as “major combat operations” against Iran, with strikes aimed at the country’s missile systems, naval assets, and nuclear infrastructure. Reports say Israel’s Defense Minister Israel Katz described the operation as a preemptive move, with both governments coordinating the assault. The scale and speed of the attack caught many off guard, and Iran’s response came quickly. The US is carrying out strikes on Iran, two US officials tell CNN. Follow live updates: https://t.co/pG6pfrPwlm pic.twitter.com/vPGeQ9ILHp — CNN (@CNN) February 28, 2026 According to reports, Iran launched waves of missiles and drones targeting not just Israel but American military installations across the Gulf region. A US base in Bahrain was reportedly struck. Qatar and the UAE said their defense systems intercepted projectiles flying over their territory. Explosions were heard in Dubai. Bahrain shut its airspace entirely. Iran’s semi-official Tasnim news agency declared that all US bases and interests across the region would be considered legitimate targets. The conflict, by Saturday morning, had spread well beyond Iranian and Israeli borders. Crypto Markets Take The Hit Traditional Markets Cannot Yet Feel Stocks, bonds, and commodities markets were closed. Crypto was not. Bitcoin trades around the clock, every day of the week, which made it the only major financial market available to absorb the weekend’s fear. The selling was fast and broad. Reports say roughly $128 billion in total market value was wiped across digital assets in the hours following the strike confirmation. Related Reading: Crypto Mixing Is Back — And Criminals Adapted Faster Than The Rules Did Bitcoin fell from around $66,000 to as low as $63,038 before settling near $64,000. Ethereum dropped below $1,850. XRP slid 8% to trade near $1.29. Solana, Dogecoin, Cardano, and Chainlink each recorded losses of between 8% and 12%. According to CoinGlass data, Bitcoin futures liquidations reached approximately $192 million, with futures trading volume surging to around $68.27 billion — a sign that derivatives markets were amplifying the move rather than spot sellers driving it alone. Total liquidations across all crypto assets hit $515 million within 24 hours. The Fear and Greed Index, a widely watched measure of market sentiment, fell to 14 — deep inside extreme fear territory. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from TradingView
A modest claim. A bold number. Both are on the table for Bitcoin this week as a debate over how to read short-term streaks in price gains grows louder. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Bleeds $1 Trillion, Saylor Signals Strongest Crypto Conviction Yet Crypto analyst Timothy Peterson has pointed out that half of the last 24 months showed positive returns. Based on reports, he then gave a nearly 90% chance that Bitcoin would be higher in 10 months. That leap from a simple count to a firm probability is the headline grabber. It should be met with careful questions about how the odds were calculated and what assumptions were built into the model. Counting Positive Months Peterson based his view on a review of monthly performance data. Figures compiled by CoinGlass show that Bitcoin closed six months of 2025 in positive territory, while the remaining six finished lower. According to the data, 50% of the past 24 months ended with gains. Peterson said he tracks this rolling two-year window to spot potential turning points in price trends. 50% of the past 24 months have been positive. This implies a 88% chance that Bitcoin will be higher 10 months from now. The average return is exp(60%)-1 = 82% => $122,000. Data goes back to 2011. https://t.co/k4IjTisuTH pic.twitter.com/ZxfTyequjt — Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) February 21, 2026 Market Odds And Betting An exchange of bets shows a very different view. Polymarket currently prices December as only a 17% shot at being the best month of 2026, with November a hair higher. Those numbers answer a different question from Peterson’s: they reflect market bets on which month will outperform others, not whether the price will simply be higher at a future date. Betting markets can be blunt tools, but they do pack the collective view of many traders into a single number. Bitcoin Price Action Price has not been calm. Bitcoin traded in a roughly $67,000–$68,000 band this week as geopolitical tension in the Middle East tightened. Safe-haven assets like gold and oil jumped on news flows, and Bitcoin felt the squeeze as some buyers stepped back. At the same time, live tickers showed the token about 20% below its level at the start of the year, a reminder that headline percentages hide wide intraday swings. Analysts Are Split Voices from the trading desk are divided. Michael van de Poppe suggested near-term green candles could be coming, urging traders to watch for a lift. On the other hand, Peter Brandt has argued a deeper low may not arrive until late 2026. Both views rest on different sets of signals — one on momentum and chart structure, the other on longer cycle patterns and risk of macro shocks. Sentiment Still Down Meanwhile, flow data from spot ETF purchases, derivatives positioning, and on-chain liquidity figures would add weight to any forecast. Related Reading: XRP Tipped As Central Bank Bridge Asset — Bigger Than Bitcoin? Peterson’s forecast comes as crypto market sentiment continues to decline, with reports noting that discussion and activity around Bitcoin predictions have slowed. Traders appear cautious, weighing past trends against current uncertainty in the market. Featured image from Vecteezy, chart from TradingView
Bitcoin, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, continued its price struggles as traders weighed two stress-tinged signals from the US financial ecosystem. This week, there was a sudden $18.5 billion Federal Reserve overnight repo operation, and Blue Owl Capital has decided to permanently halt redemptions from a retail-focused private credit fund. In another era, either […]
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The US economy is starting 2026 with an uncomfortable split-screen scenario that is complicating the outlook for Bitcoin's recovery towards $100,000. While Wall Street credit pricing still looks calm, the “real economy” stress gauges are flashing late-cycle warning lights. This disconnect matters for Bitcoin because its path to $100,000 is no longer just about crypto-native […]
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Unofficial economic indicators suggest the Fed may need to ease policy, boosting riskier assets.
The “Bye America” trade has a habit of returning when markets stop debating whether the US is still the safest house on the block and start debating the price of living in it. Over the past week, that debate has shown up in the dollar. A weaker dollar is rarely a story by itself, but […]
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Bitcoin drifted under $83,000 on Thursday as market focus shifted toward how liquidity is stacked on exchanges. Reports say a mix of big orders and tight ranges has left traders feeling boxed in. Some analysts warn that a break under a key level could spark sharper selling, while others point to concentrated buy orders that might cushion a drop. Related Reading: Gold, Silver Steal The Spotlight As Crypto Hype Fades On Social Media: Santiment Order-Book Pressure And Liquidity According to trading-room data, one group or a cluster of large accounts appears to be shaping short-term moves by placing big bids and offers in the order book. This can keep price stuck in a narrow band. Material Indicators’ research flagged a pattern where bids are clustering around $85,000 to $87,500 — a zone that could act like a floor for now. The idea is simple: by piling up liquidity at certain prices, large players can get fills on their orders or discourage quick recoveries before options expiry. Market participants say this kind of behavior can trap less-experienced traders who react to sudden moves. At times, the pressure seems deliberate; at other times, it may be a byproduct of many traders aiming for the same levels. Either way, the result has been choppy price action and rising tension in the book. FireCharts shows $BTC price is being suppressed by one entity using a liquidity herding strategy to push price lower, potentially to get their own bids filled, or possible to keep price pinned in the lower end of this range before Friday’s options expiry. A significant amount of… pic.twitter.com/c63miAxBkh — Material Indicators (@MI_Algos) January 29, 2026 Whales, Wyckoff And The Spring Idea Reports note that a group of traders using Wyckoff-style thinking expects a “spring” — a drop below recent lows that then leads to a strong bounce as heavy hands buy at lower prices. Pseudonymous analysts have pointed to $86,000 as a strong buy wall provided by large orders. One commentator shared charts showing how a quick dip under $80,000 could serve as the spring before a rebound. Some traders view this pattern as part of accumulation. Others see it as a risky setup that could widen losses if support fails. The truth may sit between those views: both accumulation and the risk of a flush are possible in a tense market. Bitcoin Price Action Bitcoin has been moving in a tight range after failing to hold above $90,000. Price slid near $82,300 as fresh worries about monetary policy and world events hit risk assets. Volatility has been low at times and then spikes quickly, which makes trading tricky. Buyers have stepped in at certain levels, but they have not yet forced a clear break higher. Geopolitics And Fed Moves Reports say rising tensions in parts of the Middle East and talk about a new Federal Reserve chair pick have added to uncertainty. Some investors fear tighter policy would drain liquidity from markets and weigh on crypto. Market chatter has even mentioned US President Donald Trump in relation to political shifts that could influence economic policy. Safe-haven flows into other assets have been seen when headlines worsen, and those moves have pulled money away from riskier holdings. Related Reading: Bitcoin’s Slide To $82K Sets Off A $1.7 Billion Chain Reaction Key Levels To Watch Traders should watch the $83,000–$85,000 zone closely. A daily close below $86,000 would be read by many as a negative sign and could open the door to deeper selling. On the flip side, sustained buying at those levels could set up a rally if big liquidity holders decide to lift offers. For most people, patience and clear stop rules matter right now, because the market is being pushed by both order-book tactics and outside news, and either factor can shift price fast. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
While Fed chair speculation drives uncertainty across equities, rates, and crypto.
Bitcoin slid sharply this week, hitting just above $82,000 in early US trading and triggering a wide purge of crowded positions. Based on data from Coinglass, roughly 270,000 accounts were wiped out across exchanges in the past day, and close to $1.70 billion in total liquidations was recorded. Many of the losses came from traders who had bet that prices would keep rising. Related Reading: Gold, Silver Steal The Spotlight As Crypto Hype Fades On Social Media: Santiment Liquidations And Market Shock The move was fast. Long bets were the hardest hit. Reports say over 90% of the liquidated contracts were long positions, mostly in Bitcoin and Ether. The market was shaken quickly as stop orders were pulled and margin calls were forced. Price gaps showed up on some platforms and volatility spiked. This kind of clearing event can leave prices unstable for a bit, even after traders calm down. Geopolitics And Policy Pressure Reports note heightened tensions in the Middle East added fuel to the selloff. A US warship deployment and renewed public statements from US President Donald Trump put risk assets on edge. At the same time, an executive action linked to tariffs on goods tied to certain oil deals raised fresh concern among global traders. Risk appetite cooled as investors mulled how those moves might affect energy flows and trade. Tech Earnings And Investor Mood Microsoft’s earnings miss was another note in the mix. Some big tech names fell hard after results that showed rising costs and slower growth in cloud services. That made investors question the near-term outlook for AI-driven growth stories. With confidence wobbling in both stocks and crypto, many reduced exposure. The market atmosphere turned cautious and buying dried up in minutes. Bitcoin price action, risk aversion and volatility amid conflict headlines were both feeding into the selling. News feeds were full of sharp alerts. Traders who follow headlines closely found themselves adjusting positions quickly. Support Test And Wider Market Drops Bitcoin is trading near a higher-timeframe support area that mattered in recent months. Weekly closes have been caged between roughly $94,000 and $84,000 for several weeks, and that structure faces another test now. If buyers do not step in, deeper weakness could follow. Reports say the wider crypto market lost around $200 billion in value across tokens during the worst of the move. What Traders Are Saying Some analysts called the reaction overblown and noted that prices had already been falling since October. Others warned that a longer correction could be in play if macro pressures persist. Related Reading: Banks And Crypto Firms Back At The Table As CLARITY Talks Restart Benjamin Cowen warned that Bitcoin may continue to act weak compared with stocks, suggesting any hoped-for rapid flip from gold or silver into crypto might not happen fast. According to Trading Economics, gold and silver have climbed to record levels, with gold reaching $5,608 per ounce and silver rising to $121.60. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
The proposed bank would offer cryptocurrency custody, spot trading and staking services under direct federal regulatory supervision.
The US government has been trying to execute a historic pivot with its Bitcoin holdings, shifting from a messy, case-by-case inventory of seized crypto into a strategic national reserve for almost a year now. That ambition, often framed as a “digital Fort Knox,” is now facing a credibility test after allegations that roughly $40 million […]
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The fintech company believes a de novo banking license under the Trump administration will be faster than acquiring an existing bank, avoiding the need to maintain physical branches.
Bitcoin price succumbed to a violent selloff on Monday while gold and silver surged to all-time highs following President Donald Trump‘s threat of sweeping new tariffs on European allies. According to CryptoSlate's data, BTC slipped below $93,000 within minutes during early Asian trading hours, after trading comfortably in the mid-$95,000s just moments earlier. This price […]
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The US crypto industry believed it stood on the precipice of securing the regulatory legitimacy it has pursued for a decade, but the political ground has suddenly shifted beneath it. On Jan. 14, Sen. Tim Scott, the chair of the Senate Banking Committee, postponed a vote on the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. This delay […]
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Federal prosecutors said Brian Garry Sewell defrauded investors of nearly $3 million and ran an unlicensed cash-to-crypto business that moved more than $5 million.
One trader went against the current trend of low chances for a strike tonight by placing the new $40,000 bet.
On Jan. 13, the US Senate Banking Committee released the full text of the highly anticipated Digital Asset Market Clarity Act (CLARITY) ahead of its expected markup this week. The 278-page draft abandons the strategy of picking winners on a token-by-token basis. Instead, it constructs a comprehensive “lane system” that assigns jurisdiction based on the […]
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Bitcoin investors are bracing for a rare convergence of market forces this week, walking into a gauntlet of three distinct macro and policy catalysts packed into a single 72-hour window. The catalysts include the release of December’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Tuesday, a potentially historic Supreme Court opinion day on Wednesday regarding executive tariff […]
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