While the broader cryptocurrency market appears to be gradually recovering, Toncoin (TON) has yet to join the upward trend. Over the past week, TON has faced significant challenges, seeing its price dip by 5.4%. Amid this price performance, a CryptoQuant analyst has highlighted signs of a potential reversal, especially as recent data sheds light on underlying market dynamics that could impact the coin’s near-term trajectory. Related Reading: Is Toncoin Price Gearing For A Rebound At $5? This On-Chain Metric Suggests So Toncoin Open Interest and Potential Reversal Signals The CryptoQuant analyst Joao Wedson has provided an intriguing perspective. In a recent post titled “TON: Signs of a Reversal?” Wedson highlighted a pattern within the open interest data that could hint at a price rebound. This analysis comes at a critical time, with market participants seeking any indicators that TON might stabilize and regain lost ground. Wedson’s analysis centers around the weekly variation in Toncoin’s open interest—a measure of the total number of outstanding derivatives contracts on the asset. According to the data, the open interest delta has shown a consistent increase whenever TON experiences volatility spikes. Historically, these patterns have been observed ahead of significant price surges, raising the possibility that a similar recovery could be on the horizon. TON: Signs of a Reversal? “We’ve observed a pattern where the Open Interest Delta increases with each volatility spike—a behavior that previously preceded a sharp price surge.” – By @joao_wedson Full analysis ????https://t.co/FC8q4QYIp6 pic.twitter.com/5luN5VojDn — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) January 29, 2025 TON Market Performance In recent weeks, TON’s price action has been noticeably less bullish. Even as the broader cryptocurrency market experiences gradual gains, TON has struggled to recover, consistently declining and now down roughly 11% over the past two weeks. This divergence from the broader market’s upward momentum may suggest that TON is facing its own bearish pressures, whether driven by chart patterns or on-chain factors. Related Reading: Toncoin Gears Up For A Fresh Rally With Bullish Momentum Building For instance, Renowned crypto analyst Ali recently highlighted that TON has faced significant transfers to exchanges signaling increasing sell-offs. Over 240,000 #Toncoin $TON have been transferred to exchanges in the past week, potentially signaling increased selling pressure as shown by on-chain data from @santimentfeed! pic.twitter.com/FF9BBEMJzL — Ali (@ali_charts) January 29, 2025 Although TON is trading at $4.84 as of now, up 0.4% on the day, this small increase has not been enough to lift the asset out of its current correction. The continued decline in TON’s price has not only reduced its market capitalization but also significantly diminished its daily trading volume. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
The cryptocurrency market has shown heightened activity in early 2025, with Toncoin (TON) emerging as one of the spotlighted assets following an analysis shared by a CryptoQuant analyst, Burak Kesmeci. According to recent data, the 90-day percent return metric for TON indicates the early stages of an uptrend, raising expectations of a sustained rally in the coming weeks. This trend has been observed historically, with similar metrics signaling substantial gains in past bull cycles. Related Reading: Toncoin Price Recovery Continues — Is The Dwindling Staking TVL Ratio Bullish? Historical Data Suggests Strong Price Potential Kesmeci disclosed that historical analysis reveals that TON has previously demonstrated notable performance following reversals in the 90-day percent return metric. For example, in August 2023, TON rose from $1.72, delivering a 65% gain over 70 days. Similarly, in February 2024, the asset surged by 258% in just 43 days after a similar metric reversal. The most recent example, recorded in November 2024, saw TON climb 32% within 11 days. These instances suggest that when the 90-day percent return metric crosses into positive territory, it often serves as a precursor to significant upward price movement. The current trend, which began just seven days ago, has sparked optimism among investors who are considering short-term accumulation strategies. Kesmeci reveals that if historical trends persist, TON could experience a median gain of 65% over the next 43 days. The analyst wrote: Currently, we observe that the “90-day percent return” metric for TON has entered a bull trend for the fourth time. It has been only 7 days since this reversal. Based on previous data: Expected duration: 43 days (median value) Potential percentage return: 65% (median value) These insights suggest that TON is likely to continue its upward trend in the short term. However, it is worth noting that market conditions and external factors, such as overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency sector, could influence the trajectory of this trend. Toncoin Market Performance Since the year began, Toncoin has been unable to make a significant movement towards the upside. Instead, the altcoin has continued to face consistent decline. Over the past two weeks, TON has now plunged by a double-digit performance of nearly 12%. This has brought the asset’s price to currently trade below $6 as of today marking a 7.5% decline in the past 24 hours. Interestingly, despite the consistent decline from TON in recent weeks, the asset’s daily trading volume has seen an opposite trend. Related Reading: Toncoin Consolidates: Could A Breakout Push TON Higher? Particularly, in the past 7 days, TON’s daily trading volume has moved from $200 million last Wednesday to now sitting at roughly 344 million as of today. Given the current trend in TON’s price, it is worth noting that this increase in TON’s trading volume might be from the continuous selling pressure in the TON market. Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView
Toncoin (TON) appears to have now entered a notable phase in its market cycle, presenting potential opportunities for investors. A recent analysis by CryptoQuant analyst Joao Wedson highlights that TON has moved into a favorable risk zone for accumulation, as indicated by the Normalized Risk Metric (NMR). This metric evaluates an asset’s price risk relative to historical data, providing a clearer picture of whether the current price levels are suitable for investment or if caution is warranted. Related Reading: Toncoin Consolidates: Could A Breakout Push TON Higher? Toncoin Current Market Outlook The NMR uses moving averages such as the 50-day and 374-day simple moving averages (SMA) along with logarithmic differences in price data to determine risk exposure. A normalized score ranging between 0 and 1 indicates the level of risk, with values closer to zero suggesting a lower chance of price decline. According to Wedson, TON’s current placement in the green zone signals reduced risk, making it an appealing opportunity for investors seeking long-term exposure to the asset. The analysis further suggests that while the medium and long-term risk profiles appear favorable, there remains a possibility for TON’s price to revisit historically significant support zones, often referred to as the “blue zone” on price heatmaps. Historically, these levels have served as price floors and accumulation points for investors expecting future price appreciation. Open Interest Decline and Market Volatility Trends Another CryptoQuant analyst, Maartunn, has added further context to Toncoin’s current market stance. According to his observations, TON’s Open Interest (OI) in the futures market has decreased to $141 million, marking the lowest level observed in the past nine months. Open Interest refers to the total value of outstanding futures contracts and is a key indicator of market sentiment and participation. A decline in Open Interest generally signals reduced market activity and lower volatility. While this trend is specific to TON, it reflects a broader pattern across the cryptocurrency market as the year comes to a close. Historically, periods of low Open Interest are often followed by significant price movements, either upward or downward, once liquidity returns to the market. Related Reading: Toncoin’s 90-Day Returns Turn Positive: Is A Massive Rally On The Horizon? Lower Open Interest combined with Toncoin’s favorable risk metrics may suggest a period of price stability and reduced volatility. Risk-Adjusted Returns and Drawdowns: A Look at Unrealized Profits in TON “The Open Interest and Funding Rates chart complements this narrative by highlighting steady open interest levels, which demonstrate sustained participation in the TON ecosystem.” – By @ShivenMoodley More… pic.twitter.com/DIpNabROij — CryptoQuant.com (@cryptoquant_com) December 24, 2024 Featured image created with DALL-E, Chart from TradingView