The recent Bitcoin price crash is not just another dip in the market, according to analysts; it could be one of the most critical phases for its long-term bullish structure in this cycle. Crypto market expert Tara has emphasized that this ongoing retracement sets the foundation for Bitcoin’s next major bottom. Her analysis points to a potential Wave 5 correction that could drive the BTC price as low as $94,000 before the next major bullish trend begins. Bitcoin Price Eyes Recovery After Wave 5 Retracement In a technical analysis shared on X social media, Tara disclosed that Bitcoin’s latest price correction “is probably one of the most important retraces it will have in a long time.” She views the decline as an essential process that prepares the leading cryptocurrency for a strong rebound in the future. Based on her Elliott Wave analysis, there are only two waves left before the broader market shift begins. Related Reading: Analyst’s Full Market Breakdown Shows Why Bitcoin Price Is Headed For $120,000 The analyst notes that the primary reason the Bitcoin price crash is important is that it allows the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to recover, creating ideal conditions for a Bullish Divergence. Subsequently, this divergence could establish a solid bottom for BTC, which is a critical signal for the start of a renewed uptrend. In her chart, Tara identifies a key Fibonacci Retracement zone between $103,400 and $104,900 as the resistance range for its current wave. The 0.382 Fib level is located near $103,478, where the Bitcoin price intersects with the Moving Average (MA), while the 0.5 Fib level aligns with $104,943. The analyst notes that this range could act as a crucial pivot zone before BTC resumes its correction in the final Wave 5 down to $94,000. Additionally, the chart shows that Bitcoin is currently retracing from a previous low near the 0.618 Fibonacci Extension around $103,755.79. Trading volume has also declined by over 48% in the past 24 hours, while RSI remains weak at 33.96, signaling that the market is still oversold. Why The Path To $94,000 Matters For The Next Bull Cycle In responding to questions from crypto community members under her X post, Tara clarified that Bitcoin could first rise to $104,000, representing a 0.97% increase from current levels above $103,000, before crashing 9.6% to $94,000. She expects a price bottom to occur quickly and soon, whereas it may take longer for Bitcoin to build solid support before reversing into a new bullish phase. Related Reading: Here’s What Happened The Last Time The Bitcoin Price Closed October In The Red Tara stated that the ongoing retracement could peak around the day of her analysis, but the bottom might take a few more days to form. Despite the anticipated “pain,” she reassured market watchers that the correction is necessary for Bitcoin’s next leg higher. She also emphasized that the market may not feel bullish until mid-December 2025. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s market structure is showing signs of cycle alignment that could delay a true bottom until October. As technical signals converge, the focus shifts to whether this timing will mark a deeper continuation of the correction or the groundwork for a stronger rebound. Macro Picture Remains Bearish With $99,000 Target In a new insight shared on X, analyst TARA provided an update on Bitcoin’s price action, stating that “the fight continues” and that the internal “waves are such a mess right now.” The current situation reflects a highly complex market environment where the short-term and mid-term technical signals are contradictory: the immediate trend is categorized as bullish, while the medium-term outlook remains bearish. Related Reading: Bitcoin Loses $110,000 Support But Risk Signal Says Market Is Safe – Details The analyst noted that Bitcoin found support at a critical technical cluster defined by a 0.618 extension and a specific 0.854 support level, a confluence that indicates buyers stepped in decisively. TARA emphasizes the significance of this hold, stating that if Bitcoin had dropped any lower, it would have “invalidated any short-term bullish scenarios. Despite the short-term strength, Bitcoin has yet to test the resistance, which is now identified at $114,400. TARA points to this level as the immediate target if the price can successfully turn around and continue its current upward trajectory. However, TARA concludes with a strong reminder about the macro trend, which remains bearish, with the full target for this entire correction remaining at approximately $99,000. Time Cycles Point To Bearish TK Cross Formation Dr. Cat, in a recent update, explained that a renewal of the September 25th low at $108,652 after September 28th would be a critical signal for Bitcoin. Such a move would indicate a continuation of the bearish trend, suggesting that the market may not find a bottom before October 1st, with the possibility extending toward October 3rd (±2 days) based on the daily chart outlook. Related Reading: Countdown To ‘Bitcoin Bottom Day’: Why September 21 Could Change Everything If the low is revisited, it would likely cause the Kijun Sen to turn downward, setting up a valid bearish Tenkan-Kijun (TK) cross. Meanwhile, the Chikou Span (CS) is also positioned in a way that shows it is preparing for its own bearish cross, further reinforcing the possibility of continued downside pressure. Dr. Cat reminded followers of a prediction made roughly three weeks earlier, where the analyst stated that the market bottom should not be expected before October. That earlier analysis was grounded on the monthly chart. Now, the daily chart appears to be coming into alignment with the monthly outlook. If Bitcoin does in fact renew the September low within the stated timeframe, this would likely serve as the trigger confirming the bearish continuation. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com