A market analyst has released a new XRP price analysis, using the Bitcoin (BTC) chart and price action as the basis for her outlook. The analyst’s near-term outlook for XRP is bearish, with ongoing market volatility and shifting sentiment posing challenges. While she highlights potential downside targets, the analyst also applies Elliott Wave theory to pinpoint resistance levels, indicating areas where XRP could decline to. Market analyst Tara has shared her plan for XRP, drawing on patterns she observed on the Bitcoin chart. In her post on X, Tara outlined a clear roadmap for traders, warning that the current bounce seen in the XRP price could be a deceptive move and that significant downside risk remains ahead. The analyst identified a complete five-wave Elliott Wave decline on the one-hour XRP chart, noting that price finished its Wave 5 sell-off near the $1.362 support zone, a level visible on the chart as a strong horizontal floor. XRP Price Forecast Based On The Bitcoin Chart From that bottom, XRP has continued its corrective move upward, which Tara labeled as an ABC correction. This pattern consists of a Wave A rally, a Wave B dip, and a projected Wave C push, which she expects to carry the price higher in the short term. Related Reading: XRP Price Will Not Move The Way People Think, Here’s A Better Pattern The analyst explained that, like Bitcoin, XRP is currently awaiting a Wave 2 or Wave 5 retracement. She said the move is targeting the 0.618 resistance level at $1.51, which also lines up with a 1:1 measured move. Moreover, she clearly stated that this upward move carries a bearish label and should not be misconstrued as a sign of bullish strength returning to the market. Tara further warned that the move could trap many bulls. She noted that many traders may mistake the short-term rally for a genuine breakout, only to be caught off guard when the next wave begins. The analyst also noted that, based on her readings of the Elliott Wave structure, traders should already be thinking about what wave could come next once this retrace completes near the $1.51 resistance zone visible on the chart. Looking further ahead, Tara pointed to Wave 3 as the next major move to watch. She noted that Wave 3 carries downside targets as low as a Double Bottom at $1.12. The analyst added that the $0.87 macro support level on the price chart also remains a likely and valid target, representing a much deeper pullback from current price levels. Update On The XRP Price Action The XRP price is currently sitting at $1.37 after an unsuccessful attempt to break and sustain levels above the $1.40 resistance level. According to CMC data, XRP’s price performance has been largely bearish over the past two weeks, dropping by more than 6% in the last seven days and over 3% in the past 24 hours. Related Reading: XRP Still Stuck In Bear Market Cycle With Threats Of A Price Crash To $1.13 The recent downturn has been driven by a lack of strong bullish catalysts in a market marked by high volatility and ongoing geopolitical tensions. XRP’s persistent bearish technical structure and negative sentiment have also weighed significantly on its price momentum. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Popular crypto pundit TARA has published a five-cycle Fibonacci roadmap for XRP on X, projecting that the crypto’s price will eventually surpass $100 in the long term. The projections, which are based on 0.618 extension targets applied to XRP’s 12-month candlestick chart, trace a sequence of progressively higher cycle peaks, each one separated by corrections and extended accumulation periods, that culminate in a Cycle 5 top of $153. Macro Targets For XRP TARA’s projection framework begins with a pricepoint that is already settled history. Cycle 1, which she noted as complete, produced a top price of $3.65. This is relating to XRP’s current all-time high registered in July 2025. That confirmed peak is the anchor for the entire projection. Each subsequent cycle target is derived using Fibonacci extension methodology applied to XRP’s price structure on the larger timeframe. Related Reading: Why The XRP Price Might Crash To $0.87 Before The Bear Market Ends The next three cycles form the bridge between XRP’s current price and the psychologically significant $100 threshold. TARA projected Cycle 2 will peak near $8.68, applying the 0.618 Fibonacci extension to the range established by Cycle 1. Cycle 3 follows with a projected top of approximately $22.50, and Cycle 4 extends the same 0.618 Fibonacci sequence to a peak around $59. When Will The Altcoin Reach $100? The most notable outcome from the projection is where the $100 level appears. According to the analyst, XRP does not reach triple digits in the next one or two cycles. Instead, the milestone only comes into view in Cycle 5, where the projected top is at $153. Related Reading: First Bullish Wick Appears On XRP Weekly Chart, And This Analyst Says It Will Send Price To $21.5 There is no specific timeline attached to when XRP could cross $100. The analysis is centered strictly on price progression across macro cycles, leaving out any time-based predictions. The analyst also made it clear that each upward move would be followed by pullbacks, describing the journey as one that unfolds through many waves, repeated corrections, and a span of several years. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $1.52, and the $153 price target represents a gain of more than 10,000% from today. However, predictions about XRP breaking above $100 are not new among crypto analysts. In fact, the idea has been circulating for months. Some projections have been really extreme, with one analyst even arguing that XRP could reach $100 before Bitcoin climbs to $1 million. On the other side of the debate, a few market commentators have pushed back strongly on this $100 price projection. Some crypto participants have pointed to the scale of inflows required for XRP to hit $100, noting that it would imply a multi-trillion-dollar market capitalization that exceeds the largest companies in the world. Even Ripple’s CTO has publicly cast doubt on the likelihood of XRP reaching $100 in the near term. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin is now inching towards $70,000, but there is enough to worry about around $64,000. Crypto analyst Tara expressed concern that Bitcoin’s fifth wave may not be complete, with a prediction that further downside could still be ahead. In a recent post on X, the analyst noted that the current move could either be the start or the final stretch of a fifth wave decline, and there’s still a possibility of the Bitcoin price falling to as low as $52,000. Double Bottom Support At $59,900 And $60,500 Technical analysis done by crypto analyst Tara shows that Bitcoin has built a major support around the $59,900 to $60,500 range. This area is based on prior swing lows and a visible double bottom formation on the 4-hour candlestick price chart. It also coincides with deeper Fibonacci retracement levels projected from above $70,000. Related Reading: Elliot Wave Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Will Crash In Final Move, What’s The Target? According to the analyst, Bitcoin could see a strong reaction if the price were to fall to that region. A bounce from this support could drive the Bitcoin price back to $64,400, which would then be tested as resistance instead of support. However, such a rebound may only be temporary. If the macro fifth wave structure continues to play out, the market could still be setting up for one final push lower after that retest. According to Tara’s wave interpretation, this final push lower could extend to as low as $52,000. This level is not yet fixed and will be remeasured as price action develops, but it represents a possible completion zone for the broader fifth wave. It is important to note that Bitcoin actually managed to hold above $60,000 throughout February, so therefore, the outlook to $52,000 is a worst-case scenario. Interestingly, the Relative Strength Index indicator on the 4-hour timeframe is trending lower and approaching oversold territory. Tara advised traders to watch for bullish divergence on the RSI during the next drop. A bullish divergence on the RSI could be the first sign of the end of the corrective structure. Bitcoin Might Register Higher Support At $64,000 Over the past few weeks, the $64,000 region has stood out as a decisive pivot for Bitcoin, repeatedly flipping between support and resistance depending on the direction of price. In a separate update, Tara highlighted that Bitcoin recently backtested the macro 0.5 Fibonacci level at $64,400 as resistance before attempting to push higher. Related Reading: Here’s What’s Driving The Bitcoin Price Crash Toward $60,0000 Reclaiming $64,000 would be an important step toward reversing the current bearish macro trend. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $68,220, up 4% over the past 24 hours. Even so, there is still a risk of a pullback. A drop back below $64,000 would weaken the short-term recovery and could expose the prior swing low at $60,500. On the flip side, bullish momentum would be confirmed if Bitcoin breaks above $70,000. Featured image from Pngtree, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst CasiTrades has warned that the XRP price structure has turned bearish, putting the altcoin at risk of a further decline. The analyst also suggested that the price could still crash below $1 as it looks to find a bottom. XRP Price Structure Shifts Bearish With Key Levels Below In an X post, CasiTrades stated that the XRP price structure has shifted bearish, with key levels below. She further revealed that price is starting to gather sell strength and that the trendline break is looking to form resistance. The analyst added that price is losing the B-wave low, shifting momentum toward supports. Related Reading: The Uncomfortable Truth About XRP That Shows How High Price Can Actually Go CasiTrades also stated that the $1.11 and $0.87 levels are the main downside targets, indicating that the XRP price could still crash below $1. Meanwhile, the local resistance is at $1.40, with the analyst noting that as long as the price stays below it, the market is likely headed lower. As such, she believes that current levels are still a no-trade zone. She urged market participants to wait for lower supports to be reached or a flip of the $1.65 macro resistance. It is worth noting that the XRP price has recently climbed above the $1.40 resistance and could invalidate the bearish structure if it breaks above the $1.65 macro resistance, as CasiTrades mentioned. This rally has come on the back of Bitcoin’s rally to around $70,000 following a drop to as low as $64,000 earlier in the week. CoinGlass data shows an increase in activity in the derivatives market amid the XRP price’s rally above $1.40. Trading volume has surged by over 33% to $6.20 billion, while open interest is up by over 6% to $2.39 billion. The long/short ratio is above 1, indicating that most traders are currently long on the altcoin. The Bottom Isn’t In Yet For XRP In an X post, crypto analyst TARA stated that she is not convinced that the bottom isn’t in for the XRP price. The analyst noted that an early indication that the bottom is in would be a break above the macro .618 level at $1.47. XRP is said to be testing that level as resistance right now, which TARA noted is a “super critical moment.” Related Reading: XRP Funding Levels Drop To Extreme Negative Levels, What This Means For Price The analyst suggested that for the bottom to be in for the XRP price, it would need a clean break above $1.88, with such confirmation still a long way away. However, she added that a break above the macro .618 support is a really good first step and a key level that it needs to hold if flipped. At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.44, up over 6% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst TARA has predicted that the XRP price could still crash below the psychological $1 level. This came as she drew the altcoin’s correlation to Bitcoin’s price action, while highlighting how a BTC crash could also push XRP to as low as $0.87. XRP Price Could Drop To $0.87 If Bitcoin’s Crash Deepens In an X post, TARA stated that a Bitcoin crash to $52,200 would bring the XRP price down to its .786 support at $0.87. She noted that this level is also the .618 extension and the gap that was left by the October 10 liquidation event. The analyst made these comments while noting what she was watching for on XRP during this market downtrend. Related Reading: XRP Price Enters ‘Final Shakeout Zone’, What Investors Should Expect TARA also mentioned that the XRP price has reached its textbook .382 resistance at $1.53, but that the waves on Bitcoin appear incomplete. She predicted that XRP could suffer another leg down in the short term as she expects a short-term correction for BTC to $65,800 before it makes another push up to the .5 resistance level at $75,400. The analyst stated that this projected Bitcoin crash to $65,800 could bring the XRP price down to $1.30 as a short-term support, with another wave up expected as high as the .5 resistance at $1.65. Meanwhile, TARA remains bullish on XRP in the long term, noting that the macro Wave 3 targets remain $7 to $9. She also noted that XRP could have bottomed around this current range, but BTC continues to largely drive price action for the altcoin and the broader crypto market, which is why it can still drop further. Two Potential Scenarios For XRP Crypto analyst CasiTrades stated in an X post that the XRP price is currently in a Wave 4 relief that could send it towards the .5 retracement and macro .618 near $1.65, a level she described as critical. She warned that if XRP fails to flip $1.65 into support, it would set up a clean final wave down targeting $1.09 or even $0.90. Related Reading: What Happens Now That The XRP Price Has Revisited The October 10 Lows? CasiTrades further stated that this current relief bounce has reset the RSI enough that a move down to these levels would likely produce a bullish divergence, which makes them “exceptional long-term buy zones.” On the other hand, if the XRP price reclaims $1.65, she stated that it will be best to wait for confirmation of a back-test of support and then use that as an entry off strength. The analyst told investors that this is not a time to panic sell, as major lows have been reached, and that there is a chance the final wave down fails. At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.38, down over 4% in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
Crypto analyst TARA has predicted that the Bitcoin price will still rally despite bearish signals that have surfaced. She highlighted why the flagship crypto could reach this level and what could happen once it touches the price target. Analyst Predicts Bitcoin Price Surge To $99,000 In an X post, TARA opined that the Bitcoin price will reach $99,300, even though the flagship crypto is printing a bearish candlestick. She stated that BTC wants to touch this price target before it retraces deeper so that the correction does not break the critical support at $90,000. The analyst added that retracement levels for BTC will continue to be adjusted, with the new 2026 high above $97,000, while revealing subwaves on the way to the full target at $103,000. Related Reading: Analyst Outlines The Bulllish And Bearish Scenarios For Bitcoin – Here’s What To Know Notably, crypto traders are currently betting on the Bitcoin price rallying past the $99,000 level and reaching the psychological $100,000 level. Polymarket data shows a 48% chance that BTC will rally to $100,000 this month. This follows the flagship crypto’s recent rally from around $92,000 to above $97,000 following the release of the soft CPI inflation data earlier this week. The spot Bitcoin ETFs have also contributed to the Bitcoin price surge to start the year. In an X post, Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas highlighted that ETFs recorded net inflows of $843 million on January 14 and now boast 1-week net inflows of $1 billion and $1.5 billion year-to-date (YTD). With BTC rallying to $97,000 after trading sideways towards the end of last year, Balchunas opined that the buyers may have exhausted the sellers. Arthur Hayes Predicts Bitcoin Rally On Rising Liquidity In his latest blog post, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted that the Bitcoin price could sustain this rally as dollar liquidity rapidly increases. Hayes expects dollar liquidity to increase as U.S. President Donald Trump finds more ways to inject liquidity into the economy. The BitMEX co-founder highlighted how Trump plans to lower mortgage rates, which could cause Americans to borrow more. Related Reading: What’s Going On With Bitcoin And The Stock Market? Analyst Breaks It Down Hayes also mentioned that the liquidity in 2025 didn’t support crypto portfolios, which is why the Bitcoin price underperformed. He urged market participants not to draw wrong conclusions from the 2025 underperformance, as it was always a liquidity story rather than a cyclical bear market, as some analysts suggested. More liquidity could also flow into the market as Trump nominates a rate-cut advocate to replace Fed Chair Jerome Powell. This could lead to larger rate cuts, which would be bullish for the Bitcoin price and the broader crypto market. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price is trading at around $95,300, down in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
XRP’s price action has transitioned into a falling phase after a multi-day rally at the start of the year, but technical analysis implies this may be part of a bullish structure. After climbing from below $2 on January 1 to $2.41 on January 6, the market has begun digesting those gains. Now, the outlook is whether short-term Fib price levels can hold as momentum resets, with the next directional move expected to define XRP’s near-term trajectory. XRP’s Rally Sets Context For Current Pullback XRP’s current price action in the past 24 hours is tracing out a downward retracement. Notably, this retracement follows a strong upward move that began at the start of the week. To put this in context, XRP opened in January 2026 at around $1.85, but shot up to as high as $2 on January 6, equating to a 30% increase within that timeframe. Related Reading: Strategist Reveals What Will Drive XRP Price To $100 Per Coin On January 4, XRP was trading roughly between $2.01 and $2.12 before demand accelerated. By January 5, intraday price action expanded into the $2.09 to $2.36 range, reflecting a clear pickup in momentum. The rally extended into January 6 and 7, when XRP briefly pushed above $2.41 before sellers began to step in. According to technical analysis shared on X by TARA, the pullback pushed the XRP price to the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement, which comes in around $2.27. This level has quickly turned into an important area of interest, as it represents the first meaningful support following the recent impulse higher. The chart accompanying the analysis shows price reacting cleanly around this zone, with XRP falling in one quick sweep on the 4-hour candlestick timeframe. What To Expect Next For XRP Momentum indicators on the chart suggest that the correction is still unfolding, but not in a way that signals structural weakness. The 14-SMA is rising toward price and might act as dynamic support, which often helps limit downside during healthy retracements. Related Reading: Here’s How Much The XRP Price Will Be If It Overtakes Ethereum In Market Cap According to the analyst, XRP needs to revisit the $2.30 to $2.33 area during this corrective wave. That region previously acted as resistance and may now determine whether the pullback remains shallow or extends further. If XRP fails to reclaim that zone, the analysis points to a deeper but still technical retrace toward the 0.382 Fibonacci level around $2.18. Even in that scenario, the move would remain consistent with a strong trend cooling off, rather than a breakdown of bullish structure. Despite the ongoing correction, the broader outlook outlined in the analysis is optimistic. XRP is likely to return to its previous highs once the retrace finds a confirmed low. Based on the current structure, upside targets are projected in the $2.49 to $2.66 range, but adjustments are expected depending on where the correction ultimately bottoms. Featured image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com
XRP has surged past recent resistance with impressive momentum, signaling strength in the current rally. However, the real challenge now lies at the $2.41 cost-basis zone, a key area where a significant amount of XRP was previously accumulated. How price reacts here will likely dictate whether bulls can maintain control and push toward higher targets, or if selling pressure creates a temporary pause or pullback. XRP Approaches A Critical Cost-Basis Resistance At $2.41 According to a recent update from Steph Is Crypto, XRP is now at a pivotal crossroads, with price action increasingly centered around the $2.41 level. This zone stands out as a major cost-basis wall where several technical and on-chain signals align, making it a decisive area in determining whether the current rally can extend or begin to stall. Related Reading: XRP Enters A Make-or-Break Zone As This Long-Term Support Cracks The cost-basis distribution heatmap highlights the $2.41 region as a dense supply cluster. Cost basis represents the price levels at which tokens were previously acquired. When the price returns to these areas, they often attract heightened trading activity. On-chain data shows that between $2.39 and $2.41, roughly 1.56 billion XRP were accumulated. Many holders who bought in this range may look to exit positions to break even as the price revisits the zone, introducing selling pressure and reinforcing the area as resistance. This dynamic is also reflected in the XRP price chart, which shows repeated hesitation and multiple rejections around the same level. The alignment between on-chain supply data and technical price action suggests that $2.41 is an important level that XRP must overcome decisively to unlock the next leg higher. Wave 3 Breaks Out Above The 2.618 Extension With Strong Momentum Tara revealed that XRP’s Wave 3 has delivered a powerful breakout, pushing beyond the 2.618 Fibonacci extension and clearing the macro resistance at $2.30. This move was accompanied by a strong RSI reading, signaling strength behind the advance. Related Reading: XRP Price May Be Bearish Below $2, But On-Chain Data Tells A Different Story With Wave 3 extending higher, Tara identified $2.49 as the next key upside target, which aligns with the 0.618 Fibonacci extension of the fifth wave. Despite the strength of the move, Tara advised preparing for a short-term pullback. A brief retracement could allow the RSI to cool off, creating healthier conditions for the next leg higher and potentially setting up a clearer divergence on a renewed push. As long as XRP remains above the macro 0.236 Fibonacci level, the broader bullish structure stays intact. Tara is closely monitoring lower-timeframe support zones, marked in green, while continuing to track the move as a developing Wave 1/3 impulse. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
Standard Chartered analysts have predicted that the XRP price could surge by around 330%. They also outlined catalysts that could spark this price surge, which would lead to a new all-time high (ATH) for the Ripple-linked token. Standard Chartered Predicts XRP Price Surge To $8 Standard Chartered’s global head of digital assets research, Geoff Hendrick, has predicted that the XRP price could surge to $8 by the end of 2026, which represents an increase of around 330%. This would also mark a new all-time high for the token, with its current ATH at around $3.84. The analyst expects the token to record such growth, as it now has legal clarity following the settlement of the Ripple-SEC lawsuit. Related Reading: This Double Bottom Formation Could Send XRP Soaring To $2.5 Kendrick also expects the XRP price to surge to $8 on the back of regulatory clarity for the U.S. crypto industry and institutional adoption of the token through the XRP ETFs. The Standard Chartered analyst noted how the improving regulatory environment has made it easier for institutions to gain exposure to the token. Meanwhile, Ripple has been able to grow its payment system, which involves XRP, thanks to the regulatory-friendly environment. These XRP ETFs are notably seeing significant demand, which is bullish for the XRP price as it eyes a rally to $8 next year. SoSoValue data shows that these ETFs have yet to record a daily net outflow since the first spot fund launched last month. The XRP ETFs currently boast a net asset of $1.27 billion, which reprersents 1.12% of the token’s market cap. Crypto pundit Unknow noted that these ETFs are absorbing the supply fast, which is why he predicts that a supply shock could happen by early 2026, sending the XRP price higher. The pundit also declared that next year is the inflection point where the altcoin shifts from speculation to global liquidity infrastructure. XRP Is Preparing For a Breakout In an X post, crypto analyst TARA stated that the XRP price is approaching the critical $1.88 level and is in a very tight range, signaling a breakout is coming soon. The analyst noted that XRP needs to hold support at $1.87, even as Bitcoin approaches $88,000. She added that if the altcoin bounces from here and tests $1.88 again, it could break above that resistance and then hold it as support, which TARA noted would be a very bullish sign. In another X post, she revealed that XRP’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) was trying to break to the upside. TARA further remarked that if today’s close is bullish, with a close above $1.88, it could fuel the next wave to $2.30 for the XRP price. A positive for XRP is that Glassnode data shows that XRP on exchanges has dropped to a seven-year low of 1.6 billion tokens, down from 3.76 billion in October. Related Reading: XRP Hasn’t Entered A Bear Market Yet; Analyst Shares Why At the time of writing, the XRP price is trading at around $1.86, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from Adobe Stock, chart from Tradingview.com
XRP is inching closer to a major turning point as fresh upward momentum collides with a developing, expanding diagonal structure. The recent impulse off support is starting to hint at a potential macro shift, raising expectations for a breakout-driven continuation if buyers can maintain control. Building Toward A Truncated Low: Market Structure Turns Complicated Hov recently highlighted a key shift in XRP’s structure, revisiting the outlook from the previous analysis where a potential push lower was expected to complete a truncated low. Since that discussion, XRP has dipped further, printing a new low on the line chart compared to the wick from the liquidity sweep. However, the movement into that low hasn’t been straightforward, carrying a structure that appears more complex than initially projected. Related Reading: XRP Price Continues Lower as Sellers Tighten Grip on Intraday Structure At first glance, the drop appeared to be a simple three-wave corrective pattern. But on closer inspection, Hov noted that a valid expanding diagonal count is also emerging. Despite the unusual structure, the price action off the most recent low is showing signs of strength. XRP is now developing a clearer impulsive move upward, which could be the early stages of the momentum needed to set up the high-probability C/3 wave trade that has been anticipated. This early impulse doesn’t yet confirm a full trend reversal, but it does reflect a notable shift in market aggressiveness. For now, Hov maintains a bullish leaning toward this support zone holding. As long as buyers continue defending this area, the probability of the reversal scenario increases. XRP Breaks Key Retracement Level As RSI Signals Growing Strength According to the latest update from TARA, XRP has successfully tapped the 0.5 retracement level while showing impressive strength on the RSI. That reaction alone hints at growing momentum beneath the surface. A break above this zone would shift the focus toward the next major target at $2.30, aligning with the crucial 0.382 level. Reclaiming that area would serve as a strong signal that XRP may finally be carving out a true bottom. Related Reading: XRP Price Pulls Back Slightly — Market Still Poised for Fresh Advance Despite this promising setup, confirmation of a new trend is still missing. Momentum is building, and price action is becoming increasingly impulsive, exactly the type of behavior typically seen at the early stage of a macro Wave 3. Another key factor lies outside XRP’s chart entirely. BTC has just reached its resistance zone around $88,300 and has not yet gained the strength needed to break through. This moment of hesitation is important because Bitcoin’s next decision will heavily influence XRP’s short-term direction. The market is extremely close to confirming its next major leg, and all eyes remain on how these critical levels react in the coming sessions. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
The recent Bitcoin price crash is not just another dip in the market, according to analysts; it could be one of the most critical phases for its long-term bullish structure in this cycle. Crypto market expert Tara has emphasized that this ongoing retracement sets the foundation for Bitcoin’s next major bottom. Her analysis points to a potential Wave 5 correction that could drive the BTC price as low as $94,000 before the next major bullish trend begins. Bitcoin Price Eyes Recovery After Wave 5 Retracement In a technical analysis shared on X social media, Tara disclosed that Bitcoin’s latest price correction “is probably one of the most important retraces it will have in a long time.” She views the decline as an essential process that prepares the leading cryptocurrency for a strong rebound in the future. Based on her Elliott Wave analysis, there are only two waves left before the broader market shift begins. Related Reading: Analyst’s Full Market Breakdown Shows Why Bitcoin Price Is Headed For $120,000 The analyst notes that the primary reason the Bitcoin price crash is important is that it allows the Relative Strength Index (RSI) to recover, creating ideal conditions for a Bullish Divergence. Subsequently, this divergence could establish a solid bottom for BTC, which is a critical signal for the start of a renewed uptrend. In her chart, Tara identifies a key Fibonacci Retracement zone between $103,400 and $104,900 as the resistance range for its current wave. The 0.382 Fib level is located near $103,478, where the Bitcoin price intersects with the Moving Average (MA), while the 0.5 Fib level aligns with $104,943. The analyst notes that this range could act as a crucial pivot zone before BTC resumes its correction in the final Wave 5 down to $94,000. Additionally, the chart shows that Bitcoin is currently retracing from a previous low near the 0.618 Fibonacci Extension around $103,755.79. Trading volume has also declined by over 48% in the past 24 hours, while RSI remains weak at 33.96, signaling that the market is still oversold. Why The Path To $94,000 Matters For The Next Bull Cycle In responding to questions from crypto community members under her X post, Tara clarified that Bitcoin could first rise to $104,000, representing a 0.97% increase from current levels above $103,000, before crashing 9.6% to $94,000. She expects a price bottom to occur quickly and soon, whereas it may take longer for Bitcoin to build solid support before reversing into a new bullish phase. Related Reading: Here’s What Happened The Last Time The Bitcoin Price Closed October In The Red Tara stated that the ongoing retracement could peak around the day of her analysis, but the bottom might take a few more days to form. Despite the anticipated “pain,” she reassured market watchers that the correction is necessary for Bitcoin’s next leg higher. She also emphasized that the market may not feel bullish until mid-December 2025. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s market structure is showing signs of cycle alignment that could delay a true bottom until October. As technical signals converge, the focus shifts to whether this timing will mark a deeper continuation of the correction or the groundwork for a stronger rebound. Macro Picture Remains Bearish With $99,000 Target In a new insight shared on X, analyst TARA provided an update on Bitcoin’s price action, stating that “the fight continues” and that the internal “waves are such a mess right now.” The current situation reflects a highly complex market environment where the short-term and mid-term technical signals are contradictory: the immediate trend is categorized as bullish, while the medium-term outlook remains bearish. Related Reading: Bitcoin Loses $110,000 Support But Risk Signal Says Market Is Safe – Details The analyst noted that Bitcoin found support at a critical technical cluster defined by a 0.618 extension and a specific 0.854 support level, a confluence that indicates buyers stepped in decisively. TARA emphasizes the significance of this hold, stating that if Bitcoin had dropped any lower, it would have “invalidated any short-term bullish scenarios. Despite the short-term strength, Bitcoin has yet to test the resistance, which is now identified at $114,400. TARA points to this level as the immediate target if the price can successfully turn around and continue its current upward trajectory. However, TARA concludes with a strong reminder about the macro trend, which remains bearish, with the full target for this entire correction remaining at approximately $99,000. Time Cycles Point To Bearish TK Cross Formation Dr. Cat, in a recent update, explained that a renewal of the September 25th low at $108,652 after September 28th would be a critical signal for Bitcoin. Such a move would indicate a continuation of the bearish trend, suggesting that the market may not find a bottom before October 1st, with the possibility extending toward October 3rd (±2 days) based on the daily chart outlook. Related Reading: Countdown To ‘Bitcoin Bottom Day’: Why September 21 Could Change Everything If the low is revisited, it would likely cause the Kijun Sen to turn downward, setting up a valid bearish Tenkan-Kijun (TK) cross. Meanwhile, the Chikou Span (CS) is also positioned in a way that shows it is preparing for its own bearish cross, further reinforcing the possibility of continued downside pressure. Dr. Cat reminded followers of a prediction made roughly three weeks earlier, where the analyst stated that the market bottom should not be expected before October. That earlier analysis was grounded on the monthly chart. Now, the daily chart appears to be coming into alignment with the monthly outlook. If Bitcoin does in fact renew the September low within the stated timeframe, this would likely serve as the trigger confirming the bearish continuation. Featured image from Pixabay, chart from Tradingview.com