Over the past few months, Strategy (formerly known as MicroStrategy), the largest publicly traded Bitcoin (BTC) treasury company, has found itself at the center of a pressing issue that could lead to its exclusion from the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) index. This potential move not only poses significant financial risks for the firm but could also have broader implications for the cryptocurrency sector, with analysts estimating that it could result in losses up to $9 billion in demand for its shares. Industry-Wide Consequences The MSCI proposed in October that companies holding digital assets comprising 50% or more of their total assets should be removed from its global benchmarks, arguing that such companies resemble investment funds, which are excluded from its indexes. However, many firms, including Strategy, assert that they are operational companies creating innovative products and argue that MSCI’s proposal is biased against the cryptocurrency industry. Related Reading: Solana (SOL) Support Shattered, Potential $100 Test Looms, Says Analyst MSCI is currently conducting a public consultation, and analysts warn that if it decides to exclude Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) companies, it could prompt other index providers to follow suit. “The conversation already extends beyond just MSCI… to the eligibility of DATs in equity indexes in general,” said Kaasha Saini, head of index strategy at Jefferies, who anticipates that most equity indexes will align with MSCI’s decisions. Asset managers are believed to hold as much as 30% of a large-cap company’s free float, leading to potentially significant outflows if these companies are dropped from major indexes. This situation is particularly precarious for the DAT sector, which often finances its token purchases by selling stock. The company’s CEO, Phong Le, and co-founder Michael Saylor addressed the potential MSCI exclusion in a public letter. They estimated that such a move could lead to $2.8 billion worth of the company’s stock being liquidated and may “chill” the entire industry. In their letter, they explained that excluding DATs could shut them out from the roughly $15 trillion passive investment market, drastically undermining their competitive standing. Major Outflows Predicted For Strategy Analysts at TD Cowen estimated in November that around $2.5 billion of Strategy’s market value is linked to MSCI, with an additional $5.5 billion reliant on other indexes. JPMorgan’s analysis suggested that if MSCI were to exclude Strategy, the company could see $2.8 billion in outflows, a figure that could rise to $8.8 billion if it faced exclusion from other indexes, such as the Nasdaq 100, the CRSP US Total Market Index, and various Russell indexes owned by LSEG. In addition to Strategy, MSCI’s preliminary list identifies 38 companies at risk of exclusion, with a combined issuer market cap of $46.7 billion as of September 30, including French firm Capital B, which is also investing in Bitcoin. Related Reading: Crypto Payments Firm MoonPay Set For $5 Billion Valuation With NYSE Owner’s Backing Alexandre Laizet, Capital B’s director of Bitcoin strategy, remarked that while the current holdings of passive funds in their shares are limited, having access to passive flows is crucial for future adoption. Matt Cole, CEO of US-based Bitcoin buyer Strive—which is not at risk of exclusion—notes that the proposals have largely been factored into market valuations. He added, “On a longer-term basis, I think it raises the cost of capital for all Bitcoin treasury companies.” At the time of writing, the firm’s stock, which trades on the Nasdaq under the ticker symbol MSTR, was trading at $165, marking gains of almost 4% ahead of the close of trading this week. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has expressed strong opposition to a proposal by the Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) to exclude digital asset treasury companies (DATs) from its indexes. Calls For Fair Treatment Of Digital Asset Companies In a recent letter signed by Michael Saylor and the firm’s CEO Phong Le, Strategy highlighted its support for MSCI’s efforts to establish consistent eligibility criteria across its indices. However, the company criticized the proposed threshold for excluding firms with more than 50% digital assets on their balance sheets, calling it “misguided.” The company argued that this measure could have negative implications not only for Strategy’s operations but also for the broader cryptocurrency market. Related Reading: Expert Declares Bitcoin Has Reached Midpoint Of Bear Cycle: What Lies Ahead? Strategy emphasized that, unlike traditional investment funds, it maintains the operational agility to adapt its value-creation strategies in tune with the evolving technology underlying Bitcoin. The firm asserts that this flexibility is a critical asset for investors and distinguishes Strategy and other DATs from traditional digital asset investment vehicles. The firm likened its investment approach in a singular asset class to that of real estate investment trusts (REITs) or oil companies, stating that MSCI categorizes those entities correctly without labeling them as investment funds. Therefore, it argued, DATs should be afforded similar treatment. ‘Discriminatory And Arbitrary’ The letter criticized the proposed 50% digital asset threshold as “discriminatory and arbitrary,” suggesting that it imposes uniquely unfavorable conditions on digital asset companies while allowing other industries—like oil, timber, and real estate—to maintain concentrated asset holdings without similar scrutiny. Strategy raised concerns that enforcing this rule would necessitate MSCI to create new methods for measuring balance sheet concentration, complicating the indexing process unnecessarily due to varying accounting principles across asset classes and jurisdictions. Additionally, Strategy elaborated on how the exclusion of DATs could substantially inhibit innovation within the digital asset industry, which the current administration strongly promotes as part of its economic strategy. The company said that digital assets like Bitcoin have the potential to become foundational elements of global financial systems, but the proposed measures could limit access to these transformative technologies for pension plans and 401(k)s, ultimately redirecting billions away from the sector. Strategy cautioned that a hasty exclusion of DATs could be based on misconceptions about their business models, asserting that it reflects a misunderstanding of the nature of these entities. The firm advocated for a more measured approach similar to MSCI’s past handling of the “Communication Services” sector, which underwent extensive consultation and a thorough review before reorganizing traditional telecom, media, and internet companies. Strategy Urges MSCI To Reconsider If implemented, Strategy warns that MSCI’s proposal could lead to the delisting of numerous companies heavily involved in digital assets. JPMorgan analysts estimate that Strategy alone might face liquidations of up to $2.8 billion as a direct consequence of this exclusion. Such a move is also expected to potentially distort market dynamics by incentivizing Bitcoin miners to sell their assets immediately instead of holding them as part of their business strategy. Related Reading: Ethereum Price Climbs Toward $3,300 For The First Time Since November: What’s Driving The Surge? In light of these concerns, Strategy urged MSCI to withdraw the proposal for excluding companies with over 50% digital asset holdings from its Global Investable Market Indexes. The firm asserted that the proposal is rooted in a flawed understanding of DATs and would impose conditions unaligned with national interests, particularly those advocating for the responsible growth of the digital asset space. As of this writing, the company’s stock, trading under the ticker symbol MSTR, is trading at $185. There has been almost no difference since Tuesday’s trading session amid consolidating crypto prices. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Despite a 9% recovery on Tuesday, Bitcoin (BTC) has experienced considerable volatility, with its price plummeting to as low as $84,000 just 24 hours ago. This downturn has had a significant impact on Strategy (previously MicroStrategy) the public company that holds the largest BTC reserves, currently boasting over 650,000 coins. Strategy T-Rex ETFs Plummet Nearly 85% NewsBTC reported that the company’s CEO, Phong Le, suggested the possibility of selling some of their Bitcoin holdings in light of the current market conditions. Alongside this, the company’s leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also faced substantial losses, intensifying worries about Strategy’s financial health. Reuters highlighted that Strategy’s leveraged ETFs, which are designed to magnify returns on the firm’s stock, have been among the largest casualties of this year’s cryptocurrency slump. Related Reading: You Won’t Believe How Much Bitcoin Companies Now Hold, What % Of Supply Do They Control? Two specific ETFs, the T-Rex 2X Long MSTR Daily Target ETF and the Defiance Daily Target 2x Long MSTR ETF, have seen dramatic declines, losing nearly 85% of their value this year. Additionally, the T-Rex 2X Inverse MSTR Daily Target ETF has dropped by 48% in the same time frame. In this environment, shares of Strategy, MSTR, have fallen more than 40% this year, driven primarily by Bitcoin’s price crash. Investor attention is now focused on Strategy’s “mNAV” (market net asset value) metric, which compares the company’s enterprise value to its Bitcoin holdings. Following Le’s comments, where he mentioned the firm might consider selling cryptocurrencies if the mNAV drops below 1, concerns grew about the firm’s long-term outlook. Current estimates place this ratio around 1.1, according to calculations by Reuters. Analysts Remain Optimistic Mike O’Rourke, the chief market strategist at JonesTrading, noted that Le’s remarks diminish the company’s message of steadfastness in holding Bitcoin, even amid market volatility. The company has also revised its full-year outlook, warning of a potential profit ranging from $6.3 billion to a loss of $5.5 billion, a stark adjustment from its earlier forecast of $24 billion in net profit. This prior estimate, made on October 30, anticipated Bitcoin reaching $150,000 by year-end. Commenting on the shifting strategies within the firm, Vincenzo Vedda, chief investment officer at DWS, remarked, “Great strategy from Strategy, while prices go up. When they go down, well, the strategic options left to the company are limited.” Related Reading: Here’s What To Expect If The XRP Price Holds $2 Since entering the Nasdaq 100 index, Strategy’s shares have dropped more than 70% from their peak in November 2024, more than halving in value over the year. Despite this dismal performance, analyst sentiments remain relatively optimistic; of the 16 brokerages monitoring Strategy, 10 recommend it as a “buy” while four suggest a “strong buy,” with an overall median price target of $485, reflecting a potential 183% increase over the next year based on LSEG data. When writing, the market’s leading cryptocurrency, Bitcoin, managed to recover the $92,000 line. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
In a turbulent market marked by falling prices, Bitcoin (BTC) has once again dipped below the $85,000 threshold, driven by growing speculation that Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, may be on the verge of selling some of its Bitcoin holdings. This intensified after a recent interview on the What Bitcoin Did podcast, during which Strategy CEO Phong Le was directly asked whether the company would consider parting with any of its BTC holdings. While the firm’s former CEO, Michael Saylor, has consistently maintained a resolute stance against selling, Le’s comments have raised concerns about potential sales in the future. Is A Bitcoin Sell-Off Imminent? Le indicated that if Strategy’s stock trades below the actual value of its Bitcoin holdings and the company is unable to raise additional capital for preferred dividends, selling some Bitcoin could become a necessity. “If the stock trades below the value of our Bitcoin… then mathematically we would have to sell some Bitcoin. It would be the last resort,” he explained. While this does not confirm an imminent sale, it visibly places the option on the table, leading to increased speculation about a forced sale as preferred dividend payments approach due on December 31. Related Reading: Here’s Why The Bitcoin Price Is Crashing Today Adding to the unease, Strategy disclosed in a recent filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that it has established a USD Reserve of $1.44 billion to cover these upcoming preferred dividends and mitigate the interest on its substantial debt. This reserve was funded through the proceeds from sales of its class A common stock under the company’s at-the-market offering program. Such moves have diluted current shareholders and contributed to a nearly 11% drop in Strategy’s stock price. Strategy Downgrades BTC Price Forecast This shift contrasts sharply with the company’s previous forecasts, which predicted that Bitcoin would soar to $150,000 by the end of the year. Strategy has now revised its expectations, projecting prices to range between $85,000 and $110,000. The forecast for BTC yields has also been revised down to 24% from a previous estimate of 30%, along with projected Bitcoin gains decreasing significantly from $20 billion to $10.6 billion at the midpoint. Related Reading: $300 Million Crypto Bet: Kazakhstan’s Central Bank Gears Up As Bitcoin’s value continues to plummet, it further unravels Strategy’s financial outlook. Nevertheless, social media experts have pointed to a paradox within the company’s messaging. AlejandroXBT noted that while Saylor has consistently stated he will never sell Bitcoin, he has been conducting private presentations to clients outlining various strategic approaches, suggesting a potential disconnect between public declarations and private planning. When writing, the market’s leading cryptocurrency trades at $84,880, recording major losses of over 7% in the 24-hour time frame. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Michael Saylor’s Strategy, formerly known as MicroStrategy, has found itself significantly exposed to the ongoing downturn in the cryptocurrency market, which has seen more than $1 trillion in total market capitalization wiped out over the past month. As the largest public holder of Bitcoin, with over 650,000 coins, the company is now facing the real threat of being removed from major benchmark indices, which have been crucial for its visibility in mainstream portfolios. Analysts Predict Major Impact On Strategy According to a recent Bloomberg report, analysts at JPMorgan Chase have issued a warning that Saylor’s firm may lose its standing in key indices such as MSCI USA and the Nasdaq 100. Related Reading: CEO Cuts Cardano Founder’s Bitcoin Price Forecast, Warns Bear Market Just Starting The analysts assert that this could result in passive outflows estimated between $2.8 billion and $8.8 billion if MSCI proceeds with a decision expected by January 15. Passive funds connected to the company currently account for nearly $9 billion in market exposure, making any index exclusion a substantial blow. Strategy’s business model has relied on a cyclical strategy of selling stock to buy Bitcoin, capitalizing on price rallies, and repeating this process. At its zenith, Saylor’s company’s market capitalization far exceeded the value of its Bitcoin holdings. However, that premium has evaporated, and the company’s valuation now aligns closely with its crypto reserves—a stark indication that investor confidence is fading rapidly. “While active managers are not bound to adhere to index changes, exclusion from major indices would undoubtedly be viewed negatively by market participants,” noted JPMorgan analysts, led by Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou. Such a shift could affect liquidity, increase funding costs, and diminish overall investor appeal. MSCI Contemplates New Index Inclusion Rules In its ongoing consultations with stakeholders, MSCI indicated that some market players believe digital asset treasury firms (DATs) may function more like investment funds, which are ineligible for index inclusion. In accordance with these perspectives, MSCI has proposed excluding companies whose holdings in digital assets constitute 50% or more of their total assets from its global investment market indexes. Related Reading: BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF Bleeds Over $500 Million In Its Biggest One-Day Outflow Since peaking last November, Saylor’s firm has seen its shares (MSTR) decline by over 60%, causing a collapse in the premium that once attracted momentum and crypto-focused investors. Despite this slump, Saylor’s company remains up over 1,300% since he first began purchasing Bitcoin in August 2020, outperforming major equity indices throughout this period. The selloff has extended its reach into the company’s newer funding structures, as well. The prices of its perpetual preferred shares—an essential part of Saylor’s recent strategies—have seen sharp declines. Additionally, yields on securities issued in March have risen to 11.5%, up from a previous 10.5%. A recent euro-denominated preferred stock offering has already dropped below its discounted offering price in under two weeks. Michael Youngworth, head of global convertible bond strategy at Bank of America Global Research, remarked, “That premium has collapsed in recent weeks,” adding that the present situation makes capital raising increasingly challenging. Feature image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
Strategy (previously MicroStrategy), the software firm co-founded by Bitcoin (BTC) bull Michael Saylor has seen its stock, MSTR, take a considerable hit plummeting by nearly 20% since last month, in line with the broader market correction. This downward trend is expected to persist, according to Gus Galá, an analyst at Monness, Crespi, Hardt, who recently reiterated a Sell rating on the stock with a price target set at $175. Analyst Cautions Against Long Positions In Strategy On Thursday, shares of Strategy fell an additional 2.4%, closing at $336.48. The company has attracted considerable attention for becoming the largest corporate holder of Bitcoin, with its Bitcoin treasury surpassing the 600,000 figure. Related Reading: Analyst Sounds The Alarm—Bitcoin Could Slide Toward $88K Despite the recent selloff, Strategy’s stock has seen major growth, climbing over 140% in the past year, primarily due to Bitcoin reaching new highs beyond $120,000. However, Galá warns that the volatility associated with Bitcoin poses significant risks. He argues that companies with large Bitcoin treasuries are indicative of a later stage in the Bitcoin market cycle. For Strategy’s stock to defy this trend, Bitcoin would need to break free from its historical pattern of boom-and-bust cycles and sustain a prolonged bull run. Historically, there have been times when Strategy’s market capitalization exceeded its actual Bitcoin holdings by more than double. Currently, with a market cap-to-Bitcoin ratio of 1.34-to-1, Galá suggests that while investors shouldn’t increase short positions, they should also refrain from taking long positions. He believes that the market cap multiple is likely to decline, driven in part by skepticism in the credit markets regarding the debt Strategy has issued to finance its Bitcoin acquisitions. Crypto Stocks Suffer Setbacks Galá also expressed doubt that credit rating agencies will be inclined to assign investment-grade ratings to Strategy’s treasury strategy, especially in the near term. This skepticism stems from the fact that the company’s profits are largely unrealized gains from its Bitcoin holdings. Securing an investment-grade rating could potentially allow Strategy to issue and repay its debt under more favorable terms, but this would require Bitcoin to be perceived as a more stable digital asset, akin to gold. Related Reading: XRP On-Chain Activity Explodes By 500%, What’s Going On? After reaching a new record price just above $124,000, the market’s leading cryptocurrency has seen its valuation drop 9% from all-time high levels currently attempting to consolidate between $112,000 and $113,000. Beyond Strategy, crypto stocks have also seen their valuations drop. On Thursday, shares of USDC issuer Circle (CRLC) dropped 4% after the initial excitement following the firm’s initial public offering (IPO). US-based cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase (COIN) saw its shares drop toward the key $300 support, meaning a 2.5% decline compared to Wednesday’s trading session. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com