Shiba Inu price faces a crucial crossroads as technical and fundamental signals converge. Despite a minor price recovery of +1.32% over the last 24 hours to $0.00001181, SHIB is down 8.27% on the week. It also recently hit its lowest level since early August 2025. The coin’s market cap sits at $6.96 billion with a …
Smart Digital Group, a digital marketing services provider, recently announced plans to create a diversified cryptocurrency fund focused on established digital assets like Bitcoin and Ethereum. While the move aimed to strengthen the company’s role in the digital asset space and tap into the growing adoption of cryptocurrencies, the market reaction was far from what …
Following a rather turbulent trading week, Bitcoin prices now sit below $110,000, representing a 12% decline from its all-time high at $124,457. Amid this situation, popular analyst Ted Pillows has shared an audacious market prediction that would douse fears of an impending cycle top. Related Reading: Bitcoin Bull Run Is Over? These Signals Show Where The Market Is At Institutional Demand To Extend Bitcoin Market Cycle To 2026 A typical crypto market cycle has always peaked in Q4 of the fourth year. This timing usually matches the post-halving hype and a strong wave of retail and institutional market demand. Such behavior is observed in the last two cycles when Bitcoin reached a market top of $19,700 in December 2017, and $69,000 in November 2021. However, Ted Pillows postulates the present market is likely to present a different pattern, which aligns with the US business cycle. Generally, the US business policy centered around liquidity, interest rates, and inflation all play a heavy role in Bitcoin demand. Notably, the US Federal Reserve implemented its first rate cut of 2025 this September, and market analysts expect the monetary authority to maintain this dovish approach for the next six months. In particular, JP Morgan predicts the Fed will implement two more rate cuts in 2025 and one in 2026. This drop in interest rates is expected to boost investors’ access to liquidity through borrowing and support investments in risk assets such as Bitcoin. Furthermore, the introduction of Bitcoin Spot ETFs has also changed the structure of inflows. Notably, these investments have improved the ease of institutional investment in Bitcoin, with the present cumulative ETF inflows valued at $57.23 billion. Importantly, these heavy inflows, coupled with the emergence of Bitcoin treasury companies, have all contributed to maturing the Bitcoin market that is now likely to be driven by macroeconomic cycles rather than the traditional crypto-native cycles. If US market forces prove dominant, Ted Pillows expects Bitcoin to reach a market peak in Q1 or Q2 2026, indicating the potential for higher price targets despite recent price drops. Related Reading: Dogecoin Bullish Again? $10 Million Stock Buyback Sparks Fresh Price Hopes Bitcoin Heading To $112,000? Over the last few hours, Bitcoin has shown strong resilience in bouncing off the $109,000 price support. According to a separate analysis post by Pillows, the premier cryptocurrency is now likely headed to reclaim the $112,000 resistance price level. If market bulls successfully overcome this barrier, further analysis suggests a potential rise to $117,000. Alternatively, another retest of $109,000 could result in a decisive break below this support level, pushing prices as low as $101,000. At the time of writing, Bitcoin exchanges hands at $109,420, reflecting a decline of 0.25% in the past day. Featured image from Flickr, chart from Tradingview
ATH price has started to climb steadily, fueling speculation as Aethir completed its KBW event and hinted at a big reveal before the quarter closes. With growing liquidity and trading volume, ATH crypto is gaining traction as investors eye a possible breakout toward its previous highs. ATH Price Strengthens Amid Anticipation ATH price today is …
Crypto Loopholes Criminals Exploit While Regulators Play Catch-Up Just this month, the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority accelerated crypto approvals to address criticisms of slow licensing and acknowledgment that regulation must catch up to the pace of innovation. At the same time, crypto adoption is rising fast: around 562 million people now own crypto globally, up …
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin has slammed the European Union’s proposed “Chat Control” law, warning it threatens the basic right to privacy in online communications. Critics say this could turn everyday digital communication into a mass surveillance tool, raising serious questions about how far governments should go in the name of security. Are the concerns valid? …
The crypto market is watching closely as changes loom at the U.S. Federal Reserve. Jerome Powell’s term as Fed chair ends soon, and the choice of his successor could reshape financial markets. For Bitcoin and the wider crypto industry, the decision may be a powerful catalyst for the next cycle. Let’s dive in to understand. …
A major Ethereum holder that had been quiet for years suddenly moved roughly 200,000 ETH Friday, worth about $800 million at current prices. Based on reports from on-chain trackers, the investor controls a total of 736,316 ETH spread across eight wallets — holdings that are now valued nearly $3 billion. Related Reading: Hyperliquid’s Days Numbered? Expert Forecasts ‘Painful Death’ The activity caught attention because several of those addresses had been inactive for years, making this one of the more notable returns by an early-era holder. Whale Moves Into Staking According to blockchain observers, the transferred coins were not sent to trading venues. Instead, the funds were directed into new addresses tied to staking services, including Ethereum’s Plasma infrastructure, where assets can earn yield while remaining locked. Two wallets that have been dormant for over 8 years just woke up and moved 200K $ETH($785M) to 2 new addresses. This Ethereum OG originally sourced their $ETH primarily from #Bitfinex, currently holds a total of 736,316 $ETH($2.89B) across 8 wallets. Wallets:… pic.twitter.com/wVFzXZcL0o — Lookonchain (@lookonchain) September 26, 2025 Emmett Gallic, an analyst who flagged the movement, described the action as “bullish.” The choice to stake rather than sell has been noted by market watchers as a possible signal of long-term confidence in Ethereum’s prospects. On-Chain Records Point To Early Holders Reports have disclosed that much of the ETH came from Bitfinex and mining pools active around 2017. Some of the wallets had last moved funds about four years ago; others had been dormant for over eight years. At the time those coins were last active, their combined worth was about $30 million. That figure contrasts sharply with today’s value, which approaches $3 billion, highlighting how much the asset has changed hands in value even for those who stayed put. Price Pressure And ETF Outflows Ethereum’s price was under stress when the whale reappeared. Based on market data, ETH dipped to $3,829 today, a low not seen since August. Reports show institutional vehicles have been selling recently: ETFs recorded roughly $547 million in outflows over four consecutive days earlier this week. On Thursday, all ETFs logged net outflows except BlackRock, which posted neither inflows nor outflows that day. That said, BlackRock had sold close to $27 million worth of ETH the previous day. These moves appear to have helped push the price lower ahead of the whale’s action. Related Reading: Dogecoin Bullish Again? $10 Million Stock Buyback Sparks Fresh Price Hopes Market Reaction And What It May Mean Analysts have pointed out that a large transfer like this would normally stoke fears of a liquidation. In this case, the absence of exchange deposits seemed to calm some traders. Staking shifts coins off liquid markets and can reduce immediate sell pressure. Still, the broader sell-off from ETF products has been sizable and may keep acting as a drag on price until flows stabilize. Featured image from Unsplash, chart from TradingView
Pi Network, known for its “Tap to Earn” model, is back in the spotlight after a shaky month for its PI token. The network’s new v23 upgrade and a partnership with Sign Protocol, an Ethereum-based digital ID platform, have sparked fresh optimism.Crypto experts Dr Altcoin believe that this collaboration has increased the possibility of Pi’s …
Crypto ETFs are stealing the spotlight as filings, approvals, and new products gather pace. The mix of Wall Street institutions and crypto-native firms rushing into the space could change how investors gain exposure to digital assets. The next few weeks may set the stage for a breakthrough. Here’s why. Major Players File S-1 Amendments for …
Ethereum price today showed a climb back above $4,000 after a week marked by sharp declines and strong buys. The recent price movement is a result of institutional flows and strategic whale moves. And also signs of exhaustion in oversold technical metrics. This analysis explores the drivers behind ETH’s latest upturn and its broader implications …
The five straight days of spot Ether ETF outflows come amid recent data suggesting weakening retail participation in the asset.
Bitcoin has slipped back into bear mode, trading near $109,000, and once again, the “September curse” seems to be haunting the crypto market. Nearly $1.7 billion in long positions have been wiped out, shaking the confidence of retail traders. But according to analyst CRYPTOBIRB, the bigger picture may not be about September at all, instead, …
Vitalik Buterin has opposed the EU’s proposed Chat Control law, warning it undermines digital privacy and creates surveillance backdoors.
The crypto market has endured its most volatile week in months, culminating in the largest liquidation event since December 2024. As the global market cap stands at $3.78 trillion (up 1% in 24 hours), fear lingers among investors, with the Fear & Greed Index sitting at a wary 34. This latest shakeout saw both major …
Over the last week, Bitcoin (BTC) investors witnessed a heavy market decline as prices crashed by over 5%. This negative performance has moved Bitcoin below $110, 00, pushing the asset near price lows seen in August. As expected, there are also growing implications of this price drop as analysts speculate it could be either another correction or the start of a bearish market. Notably, the X analysis platform, Swissblock, has shared some important market insights that support the steadiness of the present bullish market. Related Reading: The Mobility Advantage: Why Bitcoin’s Portability Makes It Superior To Traditional Gold Risk Off Signal Indicates No Danger As Bitcoin May Be Ready For Final Round In an X post on September 26, Swissblock provides a vital on-chain analysis that suggests the Bitcoin bullish structure remains intact despite recent market losses. This insight is based on the risk-off signal, which indicates that Bitcoin has yet to enter a high-risk regime —a move that would instantly confirm a change in market trend. As the market remains in a low-risk regime, Swissblock investors expect the bullish structure to start recovering and form a price bottom once market momentum begins to surge again. This recovery likely begins when Bitcoin reaches its immediate support level at $108,000. In this case, Swissblock predicts a new leg higher to be largely driven by institutional demand. While September’s price performance has fared better than expected, ETF inflows reduced in the second half of the month, indicating the need for renewed market institutional interest. The need for heightened institutional demand is further intensified, considering that long-term Bitcoin holders continue to significantly reduce their holdings. Swissblock has described this activity as a “classic late-cycle behavior”, which points to the end of a market cycle. However, the lack of a high-risk signal negates this indicator at the moment and presents the opportunity for institutions to step in to mop up the growing supply. Related Reading: Ethereum Stuck Below $4,060: A Fakeout Or Fresh Leg Down To $3,600? Bitcoin Q4 Pump Loading? In other news, crypto analyst Lark Davis has stated that Bitcoin’s net negative performance in September is a classic market pattern that usually results in a bullish price surge in Q4. Notably, the premier cryptocurrency declined by 8% in September 2023, followed by a 77% price rise in Q4. Likewise, prices dropped by 18% in September 2024, before surging by 101% in the following three months. Over the past eight days, Davis notes that Bitcoin is down by 8% setting up what appears to be a typical “rektember” playbook. Therefore, investors may begin to position themselves for another significant price leap. At press time, Bitcoin trades at $109,401 with a minor 0.11% gain in the past day. Meanwhile, the daily trading volume is down by 19.16% and valued at $60.52 billion. Featured image from Pexels, chart from Tradingview
Despite numerous calls for higher BTC prices in October, Bitcoin would repeat history with a steep drop toward $60,000 first.
Leading asset managers including Franklin, Fidelity, CoinShares, Bitwise, Grayscale, VanEck, and Canary have filed new amendments for spot Solana ETFs that include staking rewards. Nate Geraci, CEO of The ETF Store, predicts SEC approval could come within the next two weeks, following the positive reception of earlier Solana staking ETFs. This development represents a major …
On September 26, spot Bitcoin ETFs in the U.S. saw a combined outflow of $418 million, with major funds like Fidelity’s FBTC losing $115 million, Bitwise’s BITB dropping $80 million, and Ark’s ARKB down by $63 million. None of the 12 Bitcoin ETFs recorded inflows, indicating widespread selling pressure. Ethereum ETFs also suffered $248 million …
How Bitcoin Transformed Cybercrime into a Global Ransomware Industry In 2025, the crypto world has already shaken: funds stolen from crypto platforms have soared past $2.17 billion year-to-date, led by the $1.5 billion ByBit hack, the largest single breach in crypto history. At the same time, ransomware attacks against hospitals, governments, and schools continue to …
The two-week approval forecast follows analyst predictions that additional crypto ETF approvals could be a key catalyst for a broader altcoin season.
Cyber Hornet has filed prospectuses for three new ETFs that combine traditional equities with cryptocurrency. Each fund will hold 75% in the S&P 500® and 25% in a specific cryptocurrency. The ETFs are: Cyber Hornet S&P 500® and Ethereum 75/25 Strategy ETF (Ticker: EEE) Cyber Hornet S&P 500® and Solana 75/25 Strategy ETF (Ticker: SSS) …
After hitting a one-month low, Solana (SOL) has bounced from a critical support zone and is attempting to reclaim a crucial psychological barrier before potentially resuming its bullish rally. However, some analysts suggested that the cryptocurrency could retest new lows if the market volatility persists. Related Reading: SUI Retest Ascending Triangle Support Amid 8% Drop – Bounce Or Breakdown Next? Solana Price Retest Major Support On Thursday, Solana lost the $200 level as support after closing the day below this level for the first time in nearly a month. The cryptocurrency has been trading inside the $120-$220 price range since early February, finally breaking out of this range in mid-September. A week ago, the market’s bullish momentum and strong corporate treasury purchases pushed SOL’s price to an eight-month high of $253, leading many investors to anticipate the long-awaited rally to higher levels. However, this week’s pullbacks have sent most cryptocurrencies below crucial levels, with Bitcoin and Ethereum dropping to $108,000 and $3,800, respectively. Meanwhile, Solana has seen a 20% decline in the weekly timeframe, losing the $200 level. Analyst Sjuul from AltCryptoGems asserted that SOL was “in freefall after that nasty deviation back into the range.” If Solana fails to hold the current $190-$200 range, the analyst considers it would be “very difficult” to find strong support before the demand zone around $150, a level not seen since the start of July. Similarly, market watcher Wise Crypto also noted that Solana could be in a make-or-break retest, as it retests a critical support zone and the overall market still shows some signs of weakness. According to the post, SOL has been trading within an ascending channel since April, bouncing between the upper and lower boundaries throughout this period. If the market’s recent volatility continues, the cryptocurrency could retest the channel’s support zone, around the $177-$188 levels. “If this zone breaks, the next major support is down below $150 — so caution is key,” they added. SOL Bounce Eyes $200 Reclaim Despite the volatility, Wise Crypto also signaled that “Stochastic RSI is signaling oversold conditions, suggesting a potential bounce could be on the horizon.” As a result, if SOL holds this support area, a move toward the $250 barrier could follow. As Solana approached its major ascending trendline, Crypto Batman noted that SOL has bounced from this level each time it has retested it, suggesting that “In the midst of chaos, you have to look at things from a different perspective.” Notably, SOL bounced from the recent lows on Friday Morning and is currently attempting to break above the $200 psychological barrier. Nonetheless, the cryptocurrency must daily close above this key level and continue to hold it over the weekend to transform the pullback into a downside wick deviation in the weekly timeframe. Related Reading: Avalanche (AVAX) Price Holds Key Support, But Analyst Warns Rally Could Be At Risk Ted Pillows added that if this level is reclaimed, the $208-$210 area, near the 10-day Moving Average (MA), would be the next target. According to the market watcher, reclaiming and holding above that level would be the first bullish sign, which could potentially push Solana’s price toward $216–$220, near the 30-day MA. As of this writing, SOL trades at $199, a 1.4% increase in the daily timeframe. Featured Image from Unsplash.com, Chart from TradingView.com
XRP is making headlines again as investors look ahead to a possible green light from the SEC and the launch of an ETF. On prediction site Polymarket, traders now place the odds of a Ripple ETF being approved in 2025 at more than 99 percent. With expectations running high, one expert has stepped in with …
Mike Novogratz said “of course” Bitcoin could reach $200,000 if the Federal Reserve adopts a highly dovish stance following a leadership change.
A recent report from Bloomberg has unveiled a striking decline in corporate investment in crypto treasuries, highlighting a significant shift in this new trend that has considerably taken the market by storm throughout the year. Purchases by publicly traded digital-asset treasuries have plummeted dramatically, from 64,000 Bitcoin (BTC) in July to just 12,600 in August, with September’s figures currently at around 15,500. This drop represents a major 76% decrease from the fervor of early summer. Crypto Treasury Firms Valuation Sinks The broader cryptocurrency market has faced additional challenges, with Bitcoin experiencing nearly a 6% decline over the past week, exacerbated by a broader selloff characterized by sudden liquidations. Shares in some treasuries that previously raised capital through PIPE (Private Investment in Public Equity) deals have seen valuations plummet, with some trading down as much as 97% below their initial issuance prices. Related Reading: Dogecoin (DOGE) On The Brink Of A Major Breakout: 800% Rally In Sight One of the reasons behind this shift is regulatory scrutiny, with reports indicating that US authorities are now investigating “unusual trading activity” within digital-asset treasury shares ahead of their acquisitions. Markus Thielen, head of 10x Research, alleges that there is limited transparency regarding the crypto acquisition prices of the underlying tokens and the actual share counts, particularly since many PIPE deals include warrants that complicate matters with their volatility and dilution effects. The valuations of some treasury firms, which once enjoyed high market premiums, have drastically declined, with their market value approaching the actual Bitcoin they hold. This shift is measured by the market-cap-to-NAV (net asset value) multiple, which now reflects a concerning trend: the disconnect between stock prices and the value of Bitcoin reserves is closing. Diminished Institutional Support As corporate buyers retreat, Bloomberg asserts that the crypto market is experiencing a “feedback loop” that diminishes institutional support. The report alleges that this absence of a stable capital source undermines demand, leading to a more precarious market environment. The current landscape has given rise to a “two-speed market.” On one hand, derivative markets exhibit significant stress, with demand for longer-dated futures collapsing and $275 million worth of Bitcoin longs liquidated in just 24 hours. Related Reading: Expert Prediction: Bitcoin Price Could Hit $200,000 By June 2026, Claiming 50% Probability Conversely, crypto-related products continue to attract investment, as evidenced by the iShares Bitcoin Trust exchange-traded fund (ETF), which garnered $2.5 billion in inflows in September, a substantial increase from $707 million the previous month. Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at Arca, emphasized that the current weakness in the crypto market is likely a consequence of diminished activity from digital asset treasuries rather than a direct cause of selling pressure. The reduction of these major buyers, he contends, has created a more cautious market environment. Featured image from DALL-E, chart from TradingView.com
The cryptocurrency derivatives market has been hit hard by the latest bearish continuation in Bitcoin and others as mass liquidations have hit exchanges. Crypto Liquidations Have Neared $1 Billion Over The Last 24 Hours According to data from CoinGlass, a massive amount of liquidations have occurred in the cryptocurrency derivatives market during the past day. A “liquidation” occurs when an open contract exceeds a certain loss threshold defined by the exchange and undergoes forceful closure. Related Reading: Chainlink (LINK) Triangle Setup Points To $100, Says Analyst Due to the volatility that Bitcoin and other assets have experienced over the last 24 hours, a huge amount of contracts have crossed this threshold. Below is a table that breaks down the relevant numbers related to these liquidations. As is visible, cryptocurrency liquidations have totaled at $967 million inside this window, which is a pretty significant amount. Since the price action in the past day has majorly been in the bearish direction, the positions most affected would be the bullish bets. And indeed, as the data shows, $849 million of the liquidations, representing almost 88% of the total, involved long investors. Ethereum has recently been dominating speculative activity in the market, and it seems the asset has topped the charts during this derivatives flush as well, with $309 million in liquidations. Bitcoin has come second with around $246 million. A mass liquidation event like this latest one isn’t a rare occurrence in the cryptocurrency sector, mainly due to two reasons: coins can be volatile on the regular and extreme amounts of leverage can be easily accessible. Such an event, where a cascade of liquidations occurs, is known as a squeeze. As longs were the party most seriously affected in the latest squeeze, the event would be termed as a long squeeze. This is the second long squeeze that the market has suffered this week, with the other one arriving during Bitcoin’s Monday plummet to $112,000. Here is a chart shared by on-chain analytics firm Glassnode that shows how the previous long squeeze compared against this latest one for Bitcoin: According to Glassnode, the two large long squeezes could actually help prevent more such events in the near future. “This flush of leverage reflects a broad deleveraging event, often resetting market positioning and easing the risk of further cascades,” explains the analytics firm. Related Reading: Dogecoin Down 18%, But Whale Withdraws 122 Million DOGE From Binance It now remains to be seen whether the liquidations will be enough to bring a calm to the market, or if there is more volatility ahead for Bitcoin and others. Bitcoin Price At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $109,200, down more than 6% over the last week. Featured image from Dall-E, CoinGlass.com, Glassnode.com, chart from TradingView.com
Bitcoin’s spot price movement throughout the third quarter of 2025 and its recent dip align closely with the cycle structure seen in 2017. Throughout the summer, Bitcoin oscillated in a consolidation range between $100,000 and $115,000, forming a technical base at $107,000 while market momentum mirrored the 2017 correction and subsequent rally. Bitcoin has held […]
The post Bitcoin’s 2025 cycle dip mirrors 2017 – could $200k be next? appeared first on CryptoSlate.
Raoul Pal believes the crypto cycle is not nearing a peak but entering a longer, more powerful expansion that can run well into 2026, driven by a global liquidity uptrend tied to government debt dynamics. In a special Sept. 25 “Everything Code” masterclass with Global Macro Investor (GMI) head of macro research Julien Bittel, the Real Vision co-founder laid out a tightly interlocked framework connecting demographics, debt, liquidity and the business cycle to asset returns—arguing that crypto and tech remain the only asset classes structurally capable of outpacing what he calls the hidden debasement of fiat. Everything Code: Liquidity Is Crypto’s Master Switch “The biggest macro variable of all time,” Pal said, “is that global governments and central banks are increasing liquidity to manage debt at 8% a year.” He separated that ongoing debasement from measured inflation, warning investors to think in hurdle rates, not headlines: “You’ve got an 11% hurdle rate on any investment that you have. If your investments are not hitting 11% you are getting poorer.” Pal and Bittel’s “Everything Code” starts with trend GDP as the sum of population growth, productivity and debt growth. With working-age populations declining and productivity subdued, public debt has filled the gap—structurally lifting debt-to-GDP and hard-wiring the need for liquidity. “Demographics are destiny,” Pal said, pointing to a falling labor-force participation rate that, in GMI’s work, mirrors the inexorable rise in government debt as a share of GDP. The bridge between the two, they argue, is the liquidity toolkit—balance sheets, the Treasury General Account (TGA), reverse repos and banking-system channels—deployed in cycles to finance interest costs that the economy cannot organically bear. “If trend growth is ~2% and rates are 4%, that gap has to be monetized,” Pal said. “It’s a story as old as the hills.” Related Reading: All-Time Highs For Gold, S&P500; Crypto Stands Alone In The Red – What’s The Root Cause? Bittel then mapped what he called the “dominoes.” GMI’s Financial Conditions Index—an econometric blend of commodities, the dollar and rates—leads total liquidity by roughly three months; total liquidity leads the ISM manufacturing index by about six months; and the ISM, in turn, sets the tone for earnings, cyclicals and crypto beta. “Our job is to live in the future,” Bittel said. “Financial conditions lead the ISM by nine months. Liquidity leads by six. That sequence is what risk markets actually trade.” In that sequence, crypto is not an outlier but a high-beta macro asset. “Bitcoin is the ISM,” Bittel said, noting that the same diffusion-index dynamics that govern small-cap equities, cyclicals, crude and emerging markets also map onto BTC and ETH. As the cycle accelerates from sub-50 ISM toward the high-50s, risk appetite migrates down the curve: first from BTC into ETH, then into large alternative L1s and, only later, into smaller caps—coinciding with falling BTC dominance. Pal cautioned investors who expect “instant altseason” that they are fighting the phasing of the real economy: “It always goes into the next safest asset first… only when the ISM is really pushing higher and dominance is falling hard do you get the rest.” Part of the recent “sideways chop,” they argued, reflected a sharp TGA rebuild—an exogenous liquidity drain that disproportionately impacts the far end of the risk curve. Bittel highlighted that the $500 billion rate of change since mid-July effectively removed fuel that otherwise would have buoyed crypto prices, while stressing that the drain is nearing an inflection. He also flagged DeMark timing signals pointing to a reversal in the TGA’s contribution to net liquidity. “That should now reverse and work lower into year-end, which then will drive our liquidity composites higher,” he said, adding that the People’s Bank of China’s balance sheet at all-time highs has partially offset US drags. Against that backdrop, the pair contend that the forthcoming 12 months are critical. “We’ve got $9 trillion of debt to roll over the next 12 months,” Pal said. “This is the 12 months where maximum money printing comes.” Their base case has policy rates moving lower into a still-subdued but improving cycle, with central banks focused on lagging mandates—unemployment and core services inflation—while early-cycle inflation breadth remains contained. Bittel underscored the sequencing inside inflation itself: commodities first, then goods, with shelter disinflation mechanically lagging, giving central banks cover to cut even as growth accelerates. The implication for portfolio construction, Pal argued, is radical. “Diversification is dead. The best thing is hyper-concentration,” he said, framing the choice not as a taste for volatility but as arithmetic survival against debasement. In GMI’s long-horizon tables, most traditional assets underperform the combined debasement-plus-inflation hurdle, while the Nasdaq earns excess returns over liquidity and Bitcoin dwarfs both. “What is the point of owning any other asset?” Pal asked rhetorically. “This is the super-massive black hole of assets, which is why we personally are all-in on crypto… It’s the greatest macro trade of all time.” Related Reading: Crypto Bloodbath Shakes Market—But Is The Real Storm Still To Come? Bittel overlaid Bitcoin’s log-regression channel—what Pal called the “network adoption rails”—on the ISM to illustrate how time and cycle amplitude interact. Because adoption drifts price targets higher through time, longer cycles mechanically point to higher potential outcomes. He showed illustrative channel levels tied to hypothetical ISM prints to explain the mechanism, from mid-$200Ks if the ISM rises into the low-50s to materially higher if the cycle extends toward the low-60s. The numbers were not presented as forecasts but as a map for how cycle strength translates into range-bound fair value bands. Macro Liquidity Extends The Crypto Bull Run Critically, Pal and Bittel argued the current cycle differs from 2020–2021, when both liquidity and the ISM peaked in March 2021, truncating the run. Today, they say, liquidity is re-accelerating into the debt-refinancing window and the ISM is still below 50 with forward indicators pointing up, setting up a 2017-style Q4 impulse with seasonal tailwinds—and, unlike 2017, a higher probability that strength spills into 2026 because the refinancing cycle itself has lengthened. “It is extremely unlikely that it tops this year,” Pal said. “The ISM just isn’t there, and global liquidity isn’t either.” The framework also locates crypto within a broader secular S-curve. Pal contrasted fiat debasement, which lifts asset prices, with GDP-anchored earnings and wages, which lag—explaining why traditional valuation optics look stretched and why owning long-duration, network-effect assets becomes existential. He placed crypto’s user growth at roughly double the internet’s at a comparable stage and argued that tokens uniquely allow investors to own the infrastructure layer of the next web. On total addressable value, he applied the same log-trend framing to the entire digital asset market, sketching a path from roughly $4 trillion today toward a potential $100 trillion by the early 2030s if the space tracks its “fair value” adoption channel, with Bitcoin ultimately occupying a role analogous to gold inside a much larger digital asset stack. Pal closed with operational advice consistent with a longer, liquidity-driven expansion: maintain exposure to proven, large-cap crypto networks, avoid leverage that forces capitulation during routine 20–30% drawdowns, and match time horizon to the macro clock rather than headlines. “We’re four percent of the way there,” he said. “Your job is to not mess this up.” At press time, the total crypto market cap stood at $3.67 trillion. Featured image created with DALL.E, chart from TradingView.com
Circle's on-chain refund protocol could enhance trust and adoption of stablecoins by aligning blockchain transactions with traditional banking safeguards.
The post Circle plans on-chain refund protocol for Arc blockchain appeared first on Crypto Briefing.