In this week’s Crypto Long & Short Newsletter, Adeniyi Abiodun predicts that 2026 is the year Wall Street starts building on blockchain, not around it. Then, Andy Baer’s first Vibe Check of the year, reviewing the crypto’s quarterly mood swings in 2025 and the energetic start to 2026.
Spot bitcoin ETFs have seen persistent outflows ($3.55 billion in November), and stablecoin supply has declined, indicating capital is leaving the market, NYDIG Said.
Over the last two years, the performance of the US-based Bitcoin ETFs (exchange-traded funds) has been a fair reflection of the current market sentiment. With consecutive weeks of capital outflows, there is no doubt about the predominantly bearish climate of the market. This worsening sentiment can be seen in BTC’s dip below the psychological $100,000 price level. While selling pressure from various investor classes has been identified as one of the major factors behind BTC’s price decline, it is difficult to overlook the concurrent woeful performance of the Bitcoin ETFs. Bitcoin ETFs Record $492 Million Outflow To Close Week According to the latest market data, the US Bitcoin ETF market registered a daily total net outflow of over $492.1 million on Friday, November 14. This latest round of withdrawals marked the third-straight day of negative outflows for crypto-linked investment products. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Falling Because Of Strategy Sell-Offs? On-Chain Data Fuels Debate Leading this massive capital outflow is the largest BTC exchange-traded fund by net assets, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (with the ticker IBIT). Data from SoSoValue shows that over $463.1 million was withdrawn from the spot BTC ETF on Friday. Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) recorded the second-highest net outflow of $25.09 million on the day. Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund (FBTC) and WisdomTree Bitcoin Trust (BTCW) were the only other Bitcoin ETFs that recorded negative outflows to close the week, with $2.06 million and $6.03 million, respectively. Grayscale’s Bitcoin Mini Trust (BTC) was the only spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund that posted a capital influx on Friday, adding $4.17 million to its assets. On Thursday, September 13, the Bitcoin exchange-traded products registered their second-worst daily performance, with a total net withdrawal of $869.86 million. Meanwhile, Friday’s $492 million outflow worsened the US-based Bitcoin ETFs’ weekly record, bringing it to a total net outflow of over $1.11 billion. Bitcoin Lags Under $100,000: Price Overview Unsurprisingly, these Bitcoin ETFs’ woeful performances have coincided with the recent price decline below the crucial $100,000 level. As seen since launch in 2024, the price of BTC tends to move in tandem with the Bitcoin exchange-traded funds. As of this writing, the premier cryptocurrency is hovering around the $95,500 mark, showing some tame bullish action in the past 24 hours. According to data from CoinGecko, the price of BTC is down by nearly 7% in the past seven days. While selling pressure from spot investors continues to affect the market leader, an uptick in Bitcoin ETF demand could help kickstart a turnaround for the cryptocurrency. Related Reading: Bitcoin Market Top May Be In As Analyst Shares 1,064-Day Bull Cycle Pattern – Details Featured image from iStock, chart from TradingView
A recent debate on the social media platform X has drawn attention to XRP’s long-term price outlook after an XRP enthusiast, Crypto Bitlord, proposed a rather wild scenario where the cryptocurrency teleports to $500 instantly. His post, which imagined XRP being used by the US government to pay off its $35 trillion debt, caused some reactions across the XRP community. In response, well-known crypto analyst ChartNerd stepped in to temper expectations, explaining that while XRP’s future is bright, such a leap to $500 is far from realistic this market cycle. ChartNerd’s Take On Realistic XRP Targets ChartNerd’s comments immediately stood out for their grounded tone, especially amongst reactions filled with predictions of explosive, instant gains. Responding directly to Bitlord’s vision of XRP rocketing to $500, ChartNerd clarified that XRP’s price will not trade at that price target this cycle. “$XRP will not teleport to $500,” he said. Related Reading: XRP Strengthens Under The Weight Of Heavy FUD And Loss-Selling, What This Means For Price Instead of a three-digit price, the analyst noted that the XRP price can only realistically reach the double-digit threshold in this cycle. “Realistically, it could definitely teleport to $13-$27 this cycle,” he continued. This double-digit price target, although very bullish compared to XRP’s current price action, pales in comparison to other bullish projections from other crypto analysts, with many anticipating triple-digit price targets and others even predicting a run to $1,000 and beyond. As conversations around potential XRP ETFs continue to gain momentum, one commenter asked ChartNerd whether his projections accounted for the billions in possible ETF inflows and the tokens expected to be locked in treasury funds and liquidity pools over the next few months. His response showed that his analysis was not detached from these developments. ChartNerd explained that even if XRP captured half of Bitcoin’s ETF trading volume from the past two years, the result would still translate to a market capitalization of roughly $1.2 trillion, bringing the price closer to his $27 upper target rather than $500. Most ultra-bullish XRP price predictions are contingent on the cryptocurrency gaining adoption among banks and players in traditional finance. However, adoption models grow over years, not weeks, with ChartNerd adding that “these developments take time, and triple digits are not possible until many a year down the line.” Staying Grounded Amid Bold Predictions Another user remarked that Bitcoin once faced similar disbelief before breaching $100,000, meaning that XRP could surprise skeptics in the same way. ChartNerd, however, maintained his cautious stance with the response, “Highly unlikely imo, we shall see. I’ll stick to double digits.” Related Reading: Market Expert Reveals Why The XRP Price Is Still Crashing Amid Good News Surrounding Ripple Such comparisons overlook the fundamental differences between Bitcoin’s and XRP’s market dynamics, especially when it comes to their circulating supplies. At the time of writing, XRP is trading at $2.66, a 1% increase in the past 24 hours and a 9.2% rise over the last seven days. To reach the hypothetical $500 level, XRP would need to surge by roughly 18,690% from its current price. By contrast, hitting $13 or $27 would represent gains of approximately 388% and 915%, respectively. Featured image from Getty Images, chart from Tradingview.com
Large holders are reportedly swapping BTC into spot ETF shares without selling, making it easier to borrow against or include in estate plans.
Ethereum ETFs also saw redemptions, losing $1.89 million, while cryptocurrency prices edged higher.
After a week of notable crashes, Bitcoin has again seen life breathed into its price trajectory and has reclaimed its mark above $90,000. The major primer for the return of bullish momentum was the announcement of a US crypto strategic reserve by President Donald Trump over the weekend, which could be the beginning of an extended rally for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. With the return of bullish momentum, veteran financial analyst Peter Brandt listed six reasons Bitcoin has flipped bullish. Peter Brandt Lists Six Reasons Bitcoin Has Turned Bullish Bitcoin has seen its value rise by approximately 9% in the past 24 hours, adding about $166 billion to its market capitalization. This marks a swift change from the decline last week, which saw Bitcoin declining to fill a CME gap below $80,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Enters Ascending Phase After Cup And Handle Formation At $105,000, Here’s The Next Target Renowned for his deep technical expertise, Peter Brandt took to social media to outline six reasons why Bitcoin has now returned to a bullish trajectory. His observations are rooted on a series of technical developments that have unfolded over the past week. Brandt’s first key point is Bitcoin’s recent 30% correction. Notably, Bitcoin’s recent crash to a bottom at $78,900 marked a 30% correction from its January 30 all-time high of $108,786. This level of pullback is typical in strong bull markets and often precedes the next leg up. The second reason why Bitcoin has flipped bullish is its ability to find support along its parabolic advance despite the recent dip. Another factor reinforcing Bitcoin’s bullish outlook is the successful retest of a CME futures gap below $80,000. Interestingly, this gap had been a key concern even as Bitcoin rallied to above $100,000 in January, with technical analysis warning of a drop toward this level. Now that the CME gap has been filled, the next step is the resumption of bullish momentum. Brandt also highlighted the emergence of a “foot shot doji” candlestick pattern, which typically indicates the exhaustion of selling pressure and a potential reversal. Furthermore, he referenced the Factor three-day trailing stop rule to indicate that Bitcoin is regaining strength. Lastly, he pointed to a high-volume “puke out,” where sellers have exited Bitcoin in capitulation. Taken together, these signals suggest that Bitcoin’s latest rally is not just a temporary bounce but a confirmation of bullish momentum. What’s Next For BTC As Bullish Signals Strengthen? At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $92,443 and everything surrounding its fundamentals now points to a continued move upwards in the coming weeks. Interestingly, you could argue that institutional invesments through Spot Bitcoin ETFs have yet to be factored into the price of Bitcoin following Trump’s announcement of a US crypto strategic reserve. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Risks Crash: Analyst Paints Picture Of Drop Below $30,000 The announcement came over the weekend when traditional markets were closed, meaning the bullish momentum was largely driven by retail traders. With this, Bitcoin is likely to push past the $100,000 mark again before the end of the week as institutional inflows pick up. Featured image from iStock, chart from Trsdingview.com
Bitcoin continued dominance has remained a defining feature of the current market cycle, with the leading crypto asset receiving most of the inflows into the market. At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s dominance over the entire market is at 60.3% after a 4% increase in the past 24 hours. Notably, crypto analyst Rekt Capital pointed to the 71% dominance level as an important threshold for crypto investors still awaiting an altcoin season. Reaching 71% Is Critical For An Altcoin Season The Bitcoin dominance chart, which tracks Bitcoin’s market capitalization in relation to the entire crypto market, has consistently risen throughout this cycle, even during periods of price corrections. Bitcoin’s dominance has been fueled by institutional demand after the introduction of Spot Bitcoin ETFs and market dynamics favoring BTC as a potential reserve for countries. Related Reading: Altcoin Season Paused Forever? What The Rising Bitcoin Dominance Says Will Happen A direct consequence of this prolonged Bitcoin dominance has been the sluggish performance of the altcoin market. Although some altcoins like Solana and XRP have managed to outperform Bitcoin for brief periods, the capital has consistently rotated back into Bitcoin, preventing a sustained altcoin market breakout. However, some analysts believe a significant shift could be very close, with Bitcoin dominance now sitting at a multi-year high. One such analyst is an analyst known as Rekt Capital on social media platform X. His analysis reveals a historical pattern where altcoin seasons emerge whenever Bitcoin dominance reaches a key threshold and subsequently faces rejection. According to a Bitcoin dominance chart that accompanied his analysis, Bitcoin’s dominance has been rejected around the 71% level three successive times in the past. Interestingly, each rejection has been marked by Bitcoin’s dominance falling over multiple monthly candles, as altcoins outperformed Bitcoin throughout those months. The most recent occurrence of this pattern was during the 2021 bull market. At the time, Bitcoin dominance briefly spiked above 72% before reversing course. Once rejected, it entered a five-month downtrend, ultimately stabilizing around the 40% level as altcoins took control of the market. Will 71% Trigger A New Altcoin Season? Although Bitcoin’s dominance is not at 71% yet, it is still steadily inching upward towards this level. Particularly, Bitcoin’s dominance is at 60.3%, and there are no signs of slowing down. This means that investors banking on a repeat of rejection around 71% might have to wait longer for the dominance to even reach this level. Related Reading: Bitcoin Forms First Daily Death Cross On Dominance Chart In 4 Years, What To Expect Next If the 71% dominance level eventually becomes a local top again, historical patterns suggest altcoins could experience rapid gains. However, unlike in previous cycles, Ethereum may not take the lead in an altcoin season this time around. The leading altcoin has struggled to gain momentum this cycle as recent market dynamics have diminished its dominance in relation to other altcoins like XRP, Solana, and Dogecoin, which are witnessing more interest among crypto traders. Featured image from LinkedIn, chart from Tradingview.com
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Following the success of its U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETF, BlackRock is now preparing a BTC-based fund to be listed in Europe.
Following President Trump’s tariff announcements, ether was one of the hardest hit, dropping 36% to a low of around $2,100 on Monday.
While Trump’s potential tariffs were already an escalating concern last week, the full impact is yet to be reflected in the weekly figures.
In January, the 12 spot bitcoin ETFs saw about $5.25 billion in monthly inflows, up from $4.53 billion in December 2024.
Purpose Investments filed a preliminary prospectus with Canadian regulators for the proposed launch of the Purpose Ripple (XRP) ETF.
Standard Chartered see bitcoin reaching $130,000 in the next two months as institutional inflows accelerate and market sentiment shifts.
The Bitwise CIO suspects it won’t be fully overcome just yet but anticipates shorter and shallower pullbacks than in years past.
Several investor groups are trying to ramp up their crypto activity amid the political shift under President Trump, according to Bernstein.
The following article is adapted from The Block’s newsletter, The Daily, which comes out on weekday afternoons.
Unusually, no digital asset investment products saw net outflows last week, CoinShares’ Head of Research James Butterfill noted.
Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick says institutional investor activity could dampen intensity of altcoin season.
Last week’s inflows and positive price action propelled total assets under management at the funds to an all-time high of $171 billion.
The introduction of Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States marked a historic milestone for the cryptocurrency market. These Spot Bitcoin ETFs, which first went live in the US on January 11, 2024, have had massive success in just one year, making them the greatest ETF launch in history. Related Reading: Bitcoin Price Under Threat: $12,000 Void Opens Up Possibility Of Crash Toward $75,000 As it stands, US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs have now become one of the major drivers of Bitcoin’s price growth and played a huge role in Bitcoin’s break above $100,000. Furthermore, these US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs are now collectively the biggest holders of Bitcoin. Performance Metrics Of US-Based Spot Bitcoin ETFs For years, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) resisted the approval of Spot Bitcoin ETFs, making their eventual approval in January 2024 a notable turning point for the crypto industry. Particularly, the SEC approved the first 11 Spot Bitcoin ETF applications on January 10, 2024. All the Spot Bitcoin ETFs have demonstrated a positive performance in their inaugural year except for Grayscale’s GBTC. The launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs was met with record-breaking enthusiasm, as these funds registered the highest trading volumes of any ETF launch in history during their first few days of operation. Apart from opening the Bitcoin and crypto industry to traditional investors who would otherwise not invest in cryptocurrencies, many large Bitcoin holders also saw the ETFs as the best way to invest in order to take advantage of their regulatory clarity. Particularly, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Fidelity’s Fidelity Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund have led the charge with substantial inflows throughout the year. These two funds quickly established themselves as dominant players, with each witnessing over $3 billion in inflows within their first 20 days of trading. At the time of writing, US-based Spot Bitcoin ETFs now collectively control about $107.64 billion in Bitcoin assets, which represents about 5.75% of the total Bitcoin market cap, according to data from SoSoValue. Since they began trading one year ago, these ETFs have witnessed a cumulative total net inflow of $36.22 billion. In terms of cumulative net inflows, the IBIT has witnessed the highest inflow amount in the tune of $37.67 billion, while FBTC follows behind with $12.16 billion. These two have been enough to balance the $21.57 net outflows from the pre-existing Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which was converted to a Spot Bitcoin ETF. Other ETF providers have also witnessed cummulative net inflows in the past year, with ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF also at $2.49 billion and $2.43 billion, respectively, at the time of writing. However, the remaining seven ETF providers have yet to cross the $1 billion threshold in cumulative net inflows, indicating a more uneven distribution of investor interest across the industry. Related Reading: Bitcoin To Challenge Gold: Expert Sees US Taking The Lead Where Do Spot Bitcoin ETFs Go From Here? The only way for Spot Bitcoin ETFs is up, especially on the longer timeframe in 2025 and beyond. Crypto investors are optimistic about a significant influx of capital into these ETFs in anticipation of crypto-positive policies to be introduced by the incoming Trump administration. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $94,057. Featured image from Pexels, chart from TradingView
Canadian spot Bitcoin ETF investors have been flocking to more liquid US alternatives, triggering the largest crypto ETF outflows in Canada’s history.
The world’s largest cryptocurrency may be at risk of a supply shock as demand from United States (US) Spot Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) has surged far beyond expectations. In December 2024, the volume of BTC acquired through Spot Bitcoin ETFs more than tripled the amount mined during that same month, underscoring the severe imbalance between supply and demand. Spot Bitcoin ETFs Trigger Supply Shock Risks In December 2024, US Spot Bitcoin ETFs purchased an astonishing 51,500 BTC. On the other hand, BTC miners produced only 13,850 coins during the same period, according to data from Blockchain.com. This indicates that Bitcoin ETFs alone purchased nearly four times the amount BTC miners generated and supplied to the market that month. Related Reading: Dogecoin Gaussian Channel Turns Green On The 4-Hour Chart, Why A New ATH Above $1 Is Imminent According to reports, the demand for ETFs in December was nothing short of extraordinary, exceeding the available supply by approximately 272%. This massive increase in demand for Spot Bitcoin ETFs has raised concerns about a potential BTC supply shock, with analysts suggesting that it could happen soon. Specifically, Lark Davis, a crypto analyst, announced earlier in December that “a massive supply shock is imminent.” The analyst based this alarming forecast on the significant accumulation of BTC from US Spot Bitcoin ETFs. Davis disclosed that at some point in December, BTC ETFs had bought 21,423 BTC; meanwhile, miners had produced only 3,150 BTC around the same time. The analyst also noted that BTC ETFs globally held approximately 1,311,579 BTC as of December 17, 2024. This amount, valued at $139 billion, accounts for 6.24% of BTC’s total supply of 19.8 million. Given this staggering figure, Davis projects that during peak bull market phases, Spot Bitcoin ETFs could hold 10-20% of BTC’s total supply, raising more concerns about a major supply shock. Concentration Of Spot BTC Inflows In December Data from Glassnode has revealed that Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded a total net inflow of $4.63 billion in December, almost doubling their 2024 monthly average of $2.77 billion. Notably, Glassnode disclosed that the surge in Spot Bitcoin ETF inflows was more concentrated during the first half of the month, while the second half saw outflows, with December 26 being the exception. Related Reading: XRP Price Sets Bullish Flag Continuation On The Daily Chart, Next Stop $10? Not surprisingly, the timing for this surge and subsequent decline in Bitcoin ETF inflows aligns with BTC’s price movements in December. At the beginning of the month, BTC experienced upward momentum, skyrocketing to a new ATH above $108,000 on December 17, fueled by the bull market hype and soaring demand. However, following this peak, BTC’s price saw a sharp decline, a drop that coincided with the timing of significant outflows from Spot Bitcoin ETFs, as reported by Glassnode. Despite the surge in demand for Spot Bitcoin ETFs in December, new data shows that investors have extended their accumulation trend into January 2025. On January 3, investors purchased over $900 million worth of BTC through Spot Bitcoin ETFs. More recently, US Spot Bitcoin ETFs acquired an additional 9,500 BTC, worth over $966 million at the current market price. Featured image created with Dall.E, chart from Tradingview.com
While the spot Bitcoin ETFs smashed industry expectations in 2024, the products finished poorly with outflows in six of the last eight trading days.
US spot Bitcoin ETFs have contributed to 100% of the record-breaking $44.2 billion crypto ETF inflows in 2024, according to CoinShares.
On Monday, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) registered their second-largest single-day net outflow since their launch in January. The crypto-based investment products saw their second consecutive red day before the US elections, ending a seven-day positive streak. Related Reading: Binance Founder CZ Responds To $100 Million Listing Fee Controversy Bitcoin ETFs Record Massive Outflow Day […]
The iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) saw a rare day of outflows before Bitcoin went on to hit a new all-time high.
The crypto asset manager has now filed for a spot Solana ETF after getting the ball rolling for a spot for XRP ETF and Litecoin ETF earlier in October.
Despite its recent price rally, search interest for “Bitcoin” on Google is still generating only a fraction of the traffic that “AI” has over the last week.