On-chain data from Glassnode has unveiled the reason why the XRP price has been in a persistent downtrend since 2025. Notably, the XRP price crashed from its high above $3 last year and has been falling ever since. While many in the crypto space believed XRP could eventually reclaim the $3 level, the cryptocurrency has continued to struggle, shedding more gains each month amid broader market weakness and a shift in sentiment. Why The XRP Price Has Been Declining Since 2025 Glassnode has attributed XRP’s prolonged price correction since 2025 to a shift in investor behavior driven by weakening on-chain profitability and rising losses among holders. According to the data, XRP fell below the aggregate holder cost basis, which represents the average price at which current investors acquired their tokens. Related Reading: XRP Price To $1 Or $10? Analyst Warns Investors Of Possible Crash When a cryptocurrency trades below this level, a large portion of holders are technically underwater, meaning they are holding at a loss. This condition often leads to panic selling as investors attempt to limit further losses, increasing selling pressure on the asset and reinforcing the price downtrend. A key indicator supporting this view is the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), measured using a seven-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The SOPR tracks whether coins being moved or sold on the blockchain are being done so at a profit or a loss. Glassnode’s chart shows that XRP’s SOPR declined from about 1.6 in July 2025 to around 0.96 recently. Notably, a value above 1 indicates that holders are selling at a profit, while a value below that signals that coins are being sold at a loss. This sustained move below the neutral level suggests that most selling activity in XRP is now occurring at a loss rather than in profit-taking conditions. As a result, on-chain profitability for XRP holders has turned negative. Such an environment usually weakens investors’ confidence in a cryptocurrency and reduces the incentive to hold it, especially among short-term traders. Negative profitability can also discourage new capital inflows, as prospective buyers see limited signs of recovery or momentum, further contributing to price decline or stagnation. XRP Structure Mirrors Bearish 2022 Setup Interestingly, Glassnode noted that XRP’s current market structure closely resembles a period between September 2021 and May 2022. During that earlier phase, XRP’s SOPR also fell below 1 and remained there for a long time. Related Reading: XRP Bounces Hard After Capitulation — Relief Rally Or Another Bull Trap? The period was also marked by prolonged consolidation and low volatility following sharp declines, before the market eventually stabilized. This comparison suggests that XRP may be experiencing a similar structural phase in which losses dominate trading activity and recovery is delayed until selling pressure eases and sentiment moves back to positive territory. As of writing, the XRP price has declined even further, now trading under $1.4. CoinMarketCap data shows that the cryptocurrency has plummeted by more than 4.3% over the past 24 hours and by well over 46% year to date. Featured Image from Freepik, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin’s slide through $65,000 and toward $60,000 felt like a stress test the market had been postponing. The move was sharp enough to force a reset in positioning, and broad enough to pull the conversation away from single-catalyst explanations. Even mainstream media described the week as Bitcoin’s worst weekly performance since late 2022, with price briefly […]
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Ethereum (ETH) has been on an uptrend since September 28, surging from around $3,800 to the mid $4,000 range at the time of writing. According to recent data from Binance, ETH went through a “reset” during the second half of September and early October, and may now be eyeing the $5,000 price level. Ethereum Reset Over, New Highs Soon? According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor Arab Chain, ETH underwent a healthy reset over the past few weeks. While the digital asset initially dropped to $3,800 – $3,900 range, it is now trading in the mid $4,000 level. Related Reading: Ethereum Close To Local Bottom? Analyst Flags Drop In Binance Open Interest At the same time, ETH’s Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remained volatile around 1.0, with multiple spikes above one and a singular outlier, shown in the chart below. It suggests that short-term inflows are generating enough demand to meet the supply. In simple words, any price decline is quickly reversed as long as the ETH SOPR remains above 1.0. The chart shows a local bottom created in late September near $3,800 – $3,900. This local bottom was soon followed by a gradual rebound to $4,500. However, the reversal did not occur at once. Instead, it occurred in multiple stages, with short price corrections that did not go below previous lows. For most of this period, the SOPR hovered between 0.98 and 1.03, a neutral range that suggests a rotation in position instead of a broad market sell-off. Although some flash highs surged above 1.0, these profit-taking bursts were quickly absorbed by the strong demand for ETH. Currently, Ethereum is showing signs of reaccumulation. As long as any pullback keeps the SOPR at or above 1.0 and the support level at $4,000 is not breached, ETH could benefit from a continued upside scenario. Arab Chain added: A sustained break above 4.5K would consolidate demand momentum and open the way for gradually higher targets, while a break below 4.0K with SOPR
Bitcoin (BTC) witnessed a slight surge earlier today, climbing from $113,000 to around $117,000 at the time of writing, in contrast to expectations of several crypto analysts who were predicting a decline in risk-on assets due to the US government shutdown. Bitcoin Rises Despite US Government Shutdown The US federal government shut down at midnight on September 30, as President Donald Trump and Congress failed to reach a deal on funding. Specifically, the two camps were at odds over enhanced Obamacare subsidies, with neither party willing to take the blame. Related Reading: Bitcoin Momentum Indicator: Why 600,000 Transactions Threshold Matters Most However, Bitcoin made a surprise move to the upside despite the uncertain environment created by the US government shutdown, recording strong gains earlier today. CryptoQuant analyst Kripto Mevsimi stated that September saw deeper losses among short-term holders (STH), as their Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) fell as low as 0.992. As a result, most of September was marked by STH continuing to sell their BTC holdings at a loss. However, the metric recovered slightly to 0.995, although it is still below August’s reading of 0.998. The current STH-SOPR reading is showing signs of stabilization after a period of depression. It is interesting to note the timing of this recovery, as it occurred at a time when BTC is trading in the high $110,000 range, slightly below a heavy resistance zone. Past data shows two potential scenarios that can happen following such a reset in the STH-SOPR. First, it could be early warning signs of a weakening momentum for BTC, as extended loss realization can precede corrective phases where weak hands capitulate. The other, more bullish scenario, is that it could be a healthy reset. Quick absorption of realized losses often paves the way for more sustainable rallies, which could catapult BTC to new all-time highs (ATH) in the near term. The CryptoQuant analyst added: With BTC consolidating under resistance, this rebound in STH-SOPR is a key barometer of market health. If buyers continue to absorb weak-hand selling, it could mirror past resets that paved the way for the next leg higher. Will BTC Decline In Q4 2025? While the dwindling active circulating supply of Bitcoin offers some hope to the bulls, others are not as optimistic. According to recent analysis by fellow CryptoQuant contributor Axel Adler, demand for BTC cooled after it failed to hold above $115,000. Related Reading: Bitcoin Could Go To Zero, Hedge Fund CEO Warns Meanwhile, crypto analyst Doctor Profit recently remarked that BTC is likely to experience another 20% decline from its current price, reaching his projected target range between $90,000 – $94,000. At press time, BTC trades at $117,226, up 3.5% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Bitcoin is caught in a strange balance. On one side, long-term holders are consistently realizing gains at elevated levels, turning years-old coins into profit at every opportunity. On the other hand, short-term holders are barely scraping past break-even, showing almost no conviction in taking profits or losses. This two-speed market defines the current environment and […]
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Bitcoin (BTC) has surged from around $108,000 on September 1 to above $115,000 at the time of writing – recording a gain of roughly 4% over the past two weeks. However, fresh on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin may be on the cusp of a fresh rally that could propel it to new all-time highs (ATH). Bitcoin Rises Above Mid-Term Holders’ Realized Price According to a CryptoQuant Quicktake post by contributor ShayanMarkets, Bitcoin’s recent rebound from $107,000 to just above $114,000 has lifted the digital asset over the Realized Price of mid-term (3-6 months) holders. Related Reading: Bitcoin Miners Shift Strategy: Accumulation Over Selling Signals Stronger Bull Cycle For the uninitiated, the mid-term holders’ Realized Price is the average acquisition cost of Bitcoin held by wallets that last moved their coins within the past 3–6 months. It serves as a key pivot level, often acting as support or resistance that reflects sentiment and potential sell pressure from this cohort. Per analysis by ShayanMarkets, the mid-term holders’ Realized Price currently stands at around $114,000. Now that BTC has surged above this level, the likelihood of an immediate sell-off has reduced significantly. The analyst added: A firm breakout and hold above this level would confirm renewed confidence from mid-term holders, potentially serving as the launchpad for another bullish leg that could propel Bitcoin to new all-time highs. Conversely, failure to hold above $114K risks shifting sentiment back toward caution and opens the path to deeper corrective moves. A Bump On The Road For BTC Fellow CryptoQuant contributor Gaah brought attention to short-term holders’ (STH) Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR), normalized with a 30-day moving average. The contributor noted that after four months of consistently operating above the break-even line, the indicator is now showing that STH are selling their holdings at a loss. Related Reading: Bitcoin Holds $112,000 Support As Binance Whale Activity Cools Off – What’s Ahead? The STH selling their BTC at a loss indicates a “momentary loss of confidence” on the part of speculators, who are typically more sensitive to changes in price. Although BTC has jumped from $60,000 to as high as $125,000 over the past year, the SOPR STH has recorded descending peaks. In past cycles, a sharp surge in price was usually accompanied by peaks in the Extreme Greed region, suggesting strong retail participation. However, the current market cycle did not see any such dynamic at play, hinting that the rise in price was likely sustained by institutional investors. Gaah added that historically, market tops have only been confirmed when SOPR STH levels reached levels of extreme greed, a development that has not yet occurred in the current rally. As a result, the long-term trend remains firm, and the current realization of losses may just be a temporary healthy pullback. That said, some analysts caution that Bitcoin may already be very close to hitting its peak for this market cycle. Others predict that BTC may slump in September, before it resumes its bullish trajectory in Q4 2025. Still, some analysts forecast Bitcoin reaching as high as $150,000 by Christmas. At press time, BTC trades at $115,050, up 0.7% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Market expert Orbion has advised market participants to sell all their Ethereum holdings by October. He analyzed ETH’s price action to explain why the altcoin could reach its peak by then. Why Investors Should Sell Ethereum In October In an X post, Orbion said that he is still bullish on ETH right now but that the plan is to fully exit by the end of October. He noted that the Bitcoin price has already recorded a 100% gain from the lows this year, showing strong momentum and institutional demand. Meanwhile, Ethereum has broken and held above $4,200, which sets the stage for a final push higher in the coming weeks. Related Reading: Here’s Why The $4,000 Level Is Important For Ethereum From An Options Point Of View Orbion claimed that the setup looks strong now, but every cycle ends the same way, in a fast and brutal manner when the top comes. The market expert stated that his short-term target for Ethereum is in the $5,800 to $6,000 range, if it sustains this momentum. This would represent a 300% gain from the cycle lows. The market expert expects Bitcoin to start showing signs of topping in late September, with Ethereum following shortly after, possibly in October. He predicts that by the end of October, BTC could be in the $55,000 range and ETH back to $1,400, which is why he is advising investors to take profits by October. Orbion remarked that this is not a bearish but simply how post-peak corrections have played out historically. He indicated that investors should start planning their exits from now because the markets don’t give anyone time to react when momentum dies. The expert noted that altcoins can drop about 20% in a single day as liquidity dries up. As such, market participants could end up selling into panic and not strength if they don’t prepare accordingly. Key Metrics To Watch For ETH’s Market Top Orbion stated that key metrics like NUPL, SOPR, and MVRV have efficiently signaled the tops in past cycles. He explained that NUPL at +0.75 shows extreme unrealized profit levels across holders, which the expert claimed is a major warning sign. Furthermore, the SOPR turning negative shows coins are being sold at a loss after euphoria peaks. Related Reading: Analyst Shares Where Bitcoin, Ethereum, And XRP Prices Will Be By 2032 Meanwhile, the expert explained that the MVRV being deep red means that the market value is far above the cost basis, which is unsustainable for an extended period. For now, Orbion is still bullish on Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the broader crypto market because of the Fed rate cut expected to come in September. He claimed this will be a catalyst for crypto and that liquidity injections will fuel the final leg of the rally, although the expert warned it will be fast, lasting only weeks and not months. Therefore, investors have to start planning their exit before then. At the time of writing, the Ethereum price is trading at around $4,310, up in the last 24 hours, according to data from CoinMarketCap. Featured image from iStock, chart from Tradingview.com
Bitcoin (BTC) continues to hover in the mid-$90,000 range, posting modest gains over the weekend following reports that China has exempted certain US-based products from a 125% tariff rate. However, the leading cryptocurrency now faces a critical resistance level that could determine its near-term price trajectory. What Do On-Chain Metrics Indicate? In a recent CryptoQuant Quicktake post, on-chain analyst BorisVest noted that BTC has entered a stagnation phase as short-term holders have begun realizing profits. The contributor warned that if this ongoing profit-taking is not fully absorbed, it could trigger a fresh wave of selling. Related Reading: Bitcoin Must Clear This Critical Cost Basis Level For Continued Upside, Analyst Says BorisVest also highlighted that BTC exchange reserves – which had been depleting at a significant rate until last week – are now starting to stabilize. As a result, enhanced selling pressure could emerge for the apex cryptocurrency. The analyst added that both BTC inflows and outflows on crypto exchanges are currently balanced, suggesting a neutral market state. Moreover, while short-term holders were previously selling at a loss, they have now entered profitable territory. The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) has risen to 1.04, indicating that investors who bought BTC at recent lows – possibly around $76,000 earlier this month – are now cashing out. For those unfamiliar, SOPR measures the profit or loss of Bitcoin transactions by comparing the price at which coins were originally acquired to the price at which they are now spent. A SOPR value above 1 signals that holders are selling at a profit, while a value below 1 indicates they are selling at a loss. Additionally, the current SOPR metric reveals increased selling activity with rising prices, suggesting that BTC whales and institutional investors are likely taking profits. The Net Realized Profit and Loss (NRPL) metric supports this view, having sharply rebounded from about $2 billion in realized losses to $3 billion in realized gains. Bitcoin Faces Critical Resistance – Can BTC Continue Its Rally? According to the post, Bitcoin now faces significant resistance at $96,000. If BTC manages to break through this level with strong volume and momentum, it could turn this resistance into a new support base and continue its rally. Related Reading: Bitcoin Following Gold’s Footsteps? Analyst Sets Mid-Term Target At $155,000 Conversely, a failure to decisively break through $96,000 could stall Bitcoin’s rally and potentially trigger a price pullback toward the $80,000 range. Therefore, monitoring BTC’s price behavior around this critical resistance level will be crucial. That said, Bitcoin’s apparent demand has recently shown a sharp momentum shift, reigniting hopes for a sustained rally that could lead to a new all-time high. At press time, BTC is trading at $93,972, up 0.3% over the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, charts from CryptoQuant and Tradingview.com
According to a recent Quicktake post by CryptoQuant analyst abramchart, short-term Bitcoin (BTC) investors are incurring losses, suggesting that the crypto market may have hit its bottom and a trend reversal could be on the horizon. Has Bitcoin Bottomed? Bitcoin experienced significant volatility over the past week, dropping from $96,000 on February 23 to $78,258 on February 27. However, it recovered most of its losses yesterday, rebounding to as high as $95,000. Related Reading: As Bitcoin Sell Pressure Fades, Could A Local Bottom Be Forming? Analyst Explains In the Quicktake post, abramchart highlighted the declining Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for BTC holders. For those unfamiliar, the SOPR measures the proportion of BTC wallets that have held the cryptocurrency for more than one hour but less than 155 days. According to SOPR, any value greater than 1 indicates that short-term investors are selling at a profit. Conversely, a value below 1 suggests that short-term investors are incurring losses. While a value under 1 may indicate bearish sentiment, it can also be seen as a sign of market capitulation, often followed by a potential trend reversal. The total crypto market cap surged by more than $200 billion yesterday, driven by US President Donald Trump’s announcement regarding the creation of a crypto reserve. As of today, the SOPR sits at 0.95, the lowest it has been since August 2024 when BTC was trading within a consolidation zone around the mid-$50,000 range. The post concludes: We have likely reached good accumulation zones for Bitcoin and are close to the bottom of the current wave. BTC Showing Signs Of Trend Reversal While predicting crypto markets can be difficult, some indications suggest that Bitcoin may be on the verge of a trend reversal after prolonged selling over the past month. Related Reading: Is Bitcoin Showing Early Signs Of Bullish Divergence? Analyst Explains For example, during its potential local bottom at $78,258, BTC partially filled a long-standing CME gap between $78,000 and $80,000. CME gaps often act as price magnets, and once filled, BTC typically moves in the opposite direction. Additionally, seasoned crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed out that BTC has reached its most oversold level since August 2024. Martinez suggested that the high selling pressure on BTC might be nearing its end, potentially signaling a trend reversal. In related news, Andre Dragosch, European Head of Research at Bitwise, noted that despite the market pullback, BTC is flashing a massive contrarian buy signal, presenting an attractive risk-reward opportunity at current prices. On the other hand, Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered predicted that BTC may still experience further downside before resuming its bullish momentum. At press time, BTC is trading at $89,826, up 5.3% in the past 24 hours. Featured image from Unsplash, Charts from CryptoQuant and TradingView.com
Heightened bearish conditions within the market have hindered Bitcoin‘s upward momentum, causing the digital asset to drop below the $90,000 price level. Despite the persistent volatility in the past few days, retail activity has shown a remarkable performance, reflecting growing optimism among these investors. A Rapid Increase In Bitcoin’s STH Realized Cap Recent reports from […]